Daily Papers

The emergence of Large Language Models (LLMs) has illuminated the potential for a general-purpose user simulator. However, existing benchmarks remain constrained to isolated scenarios, narrow action spaces, or synthetic data, failing to capture the holistic nature of authentic human behavior. To bridge this gap, we introduce OmniBehavior, the first user simulation benchmark constructed entirely from real-world data, integrating long-horizon, cross-scenario, and heterogeneous behavioral patterns into a unified framework. Based on this benchmark, we first provide empirical evidence that previous datasets with isolated scenarios suffer from tunnel vision, whereas real-world decision-making relies on long-term, cross-scenario causal chains. Extensive evaluations of state-of-the-art LLMs reveal that current models struggle to accurately simulate these complex behaviors, with performance plateauing even as context windows expand. Crucially, a systematic comparison between simulated and authentic behaviors uncovers a fundamental structural bias: LLMs tend to converge toward a positive average person, exhibiting hyper-activity, persona homogenization, and a Utopian bias. This results in the loss of individual differences and long-tail behaviors, highlighting critical directions for future high-fidelity simulation research.

Recently, with the rapid development of robot learning and imitation learning, numerous datasets and methods have emerged. However, these datasets and their task designs often lack systematic consideration and principles. This raises important questions: Do the current datasets and task designs truly advance the capabilities of robotic agents? Do evaluations on a few common tasks accurately reflect the differentiated performance of various methods proposed by different teams and evaluated on different tasks? To address these issues, we introduce the Great March 100 (GM-100) as the first step towards a robot learning Olympics. GM-100 consists of 100 carefully designed tasks that cover a wide range of interactions and long-tail behaviors, aiming to provide a diverse and challenging set of tasks to comprehensively evaluate the capabilities of robotic agents and promote diversity and complexity in robot dataset task designs. These tasks are developed through systematic analysis and expansion of existing task designs, combined with insights from human-object interaction primitives and object affordances. We collect a large amount of trajectory data on different robotic platforms and evaluate several baseline models. Experimental results demonstrate that the GM-100 tasks are 1) feasible to execute and 2) sufficiently challenging to effectively differentiate the performance of current VLA models. Our data and code are available at https://rhos.ai/research/gm-100.

Although computer-use agents (CUAs) hold significant potential to automate increasingly complex OS workflows, they can demonstrate unsafe unintended behaviors that deviate from expected outcomes even under benign input contexts. However, exploration of this risk remains largely anecdotal, lacking concrete characterization and automated methods to proactively surface long-tail unintended behaviors under realistic CUA scenarios. To fill this gap, we introduce the first conceptual and methodological framework for unintended CUA behaviors, by defining their key characteristics, automatically eliciting them, and analyzing how they arise from benign inputs. We propose AutoElicit: an agentic framework that iteratively perturbs benign instructions using CUA execution feedback, and elicits severe harms while keeping perturbations realistic and benign. Using AutoElicit, we surface hundreds of harmful unintended behaviors from state-of-the-art CUAs such as Claude 4.5 Haiku and Opus. We further evaluate the transferability of human-verified successful perturbations, identifying persistent susceptibility to unintended behaviors across various other frontier CUAs. This work establishes a foundation for systematically analyzing unintended behaviors in realistic computer-use settings.

End-to-end architectures trained via imitation learning have advanced autonomous driving by scaling model size and data, yet performance remains brittle in safety-critical long-tail scenarios where supervision is sparse and causal understanding is limited. To address this, we introduce Alpamayo-R1 (AR1), a vision-language-action model (VLA) that integrates Chain of Causation reasoning with trajectory planning to enhance decision-making in complex driving scenarios. Our approach features three key innovations: (1) the Chain of Causation (CoC) dataset, built through a hybrid auto-labeling and human-in-the-loop pipeline producing decision-grounded, causally linked reasoning traces aligned with driving behaviors; (2) a modular VLA architecture combining Cosmos-Reason, a Vision-Language Model pre-trained for Physical AI applications, with a diffusion-based trajectory decoder that generates dynamically feasible plans in real time; (3) a multi-stage training strategy using supervised fine-tuning to elicit reasoning and reinforcement learning (RL) to optimize reasoning quality via large reasoning model feedback and enforce reasoning-action consistency. Evaluation shows AR1 achieves up to a 12% improvement in planning accuracy on challenging cases compared to a trajectory-only baseline, with a 35% reduction in off-road rate and 25% reduction in close encounter rate in closed-loop simulation. RL post-training improves reasoning quality by 45% as measured by a large reasoning model critic and reasoning-action consistency by 37%. Model scaling from 0.5B to 7B parameters shows consistent improvements. On-vehicle road tests confirm real-time performance (99 ms latency) and successful urban deployment. By bridging interpretable reasoning with precise control, AR1 demonstrates a practical path towards Level 4 autonomous driving. We plan to release AR1 models and a subset of the CoC in a future update.

Ranking model plays an essential role in e-commerce search and recommendation. An effective ranking model should give a personalized ranking list for each user according to the user preference. Existing algorithms usually extract a user representation vector from the user behavior sequence, then feed the vector into a feed-forward network (FFN) together with other features for feature interactions, and finally produce a personalized ranking score. Despite tremendous progress in the past, there is still room for improvement. Firstly, the personalized patterns of feature interactions for different users are not explicitly modeled. Secondly, most of existing algorithms have poor personalized ranking results for long-tail users with few historical behaviors due to the data sparsity. To overcome the two challenges, we propose Attention Weighted Mixture of Experts (AW-MoE) with contrastive learning for personalized ranking. Firstly, AW-MoE leverages the MoE framework to capture personalized feature interactions for different users. To model the user preference, the user behavior sequence is simultaneously fed into expert networks and the gate network. Within the gate network, one gate unit and one activation unit are designed to adaptively learn the fine-grained activation vector for experts using an attention mechanism. Secondly, a random masking strategy is applied to the user behavior sequence to simulate long-tail users, and an auxiliary contrastive loss is imposed to the output of the gate network to improve the model generalization for these users. This is validated by a higher performance gain on the long-tail user test set. Experiment results on a JD real production dataset and a public dataset demonstrate the effectiveness of AW-MoE, which significantly outperforms state-of-art methods. Notably, AW-MoE has been successfully deployed in the JD e-commerce search engine, ...

A primary hurdle of autonomous driving in urban environments is understanding complex and long-tail scenarios, such as challenging road conditions and delicate human behaviors. We introduce DriveVLM, an autonomous driving system leveraging Vision-Language Models (VLMs) for enhanced scene understanding and planning capabilities. DriveVLM integrates a unique combination of chain-of-thought (CoT) modules for scene description, scene analysis, and hierarchical planning. Furthermore, recognizing the limitations of VLMs in spatial reasoning and heavy computational requirements, we propose DriveVLM-Dual, a hybrid system that synergizes the strengths of DriveVLM with the traditional autonomous driving pipeline. DriveVLM-Dual achieves robust spatial understanding and real-time inference speed. Extensive experiments on both the nuScenes dataset and our SUP-AD dataset demonstrate the effectiveness of DriveVLM and the enhanced performance of DriveVLM-Dual, surpassing existing methods in complex and unpredictable driving conditions.

Vision-language-action models (VLAs) have shown great potential as generalist robot policies. However, these models pose urgent safety challenges during deployment, including the risk of physical harm to the environment, the robot itself, and humans. How can safety be explicitly incorporated into VLAs? In this work, we propose SafeVLA, a novel algorithm designed to integrate safety into VLAs, ensuring the protection of the environment, robot hardware and humans in real-world settings. SafeVLA effectively balances safety and task performance by employing large-scale constrained learning within simulated environments. We demonstrate that SafeVLA outperforms the current state-of-the-art method in both safety and task performance, achieving average improvements of 83.58% and 3.85%, respectively, in simulation. By prioritizing safety, our approach eliminates high-risk behaviors and reduces the upper bound of unsafe behaviors to 1/35 of that in the current state-of-the-art, thereby significantly mitigating long-tail risks. Furthermore, the learned safety constraints generalize to diverse, unseen scenarios, including multiple out-of-distribution perturbations and tasks. Our data, models and newly proposed benchmark environment are available at https://sites.google.com/view/pku-safevla.

Despite the recent observation that large language models (LLMs) can store substantial factual knowledge, there is a limited understanding of the mechanisms of how they acquire factual knowledge through pretraining. This work addresses this gap by studying how LLMs acquire factual knowledge during pretraining. The findings reveal several important insights into the dynamics of factual knowledge acquisition during pretraining. First, counterintuitively, we observe that pretraining on more data shows no significant improvement in the model's capability to acquire and maintain factual knowledge. Next, there is a power-law relationship between training steps and forgetting of memorization and generalization of factual knowledge, and LLMs trained with duplicated training data exhibit faster forgetting. Third, training LLMs with larger batch sizes can enhance the models' robustness to forgetting. Overall, our observations suggest that factual knowledge acquisition in LLM pretraining occurs by progressively increasing the probability of factual knowledge presented in the pretraining data at each step. However, this increase is diluted by subsequent forgetting. Based on this interpretation, we demonstrate that we can provide plausible explanations for recently observed behaviors of LLMs, such as the poor performance of LLMs on long-tail knowledge and the benefits of deduplicating the pretraining corpus.

On-policy distillation (OPD) trains a student policy by matching a stronger teacher on the student's own trajectories, offering a promising framework for language agent training. However, its application to long-horizon agentic tasks remains insufficiently explored. We identify two key inefficiencies in vanilla agent OPD: (1) full-horizon rollouts often waste wall-clock resources on tail turns that provide weak and noisy KL supervision, and (2) trajectory-level KL objectives concentrate most of the loss on shallow tokens, leaving deeper decision turns under-trained once initial behaviors are aligned. To address these challenges, we propose TurnOPD, a turn-level budgeting strategy for efficient on-policy distillation of long-horizon agents. TurnOPD consists of two budget controllers: adaptive rollout-depth budgeting, which uses probe-based turn statistics to determine rollout length, and progressive turn-normalized loss budgeting, which gradually shifts KL weighting from token-level to turn-balanced supervision. Experiments on ALFWorld, WebShop, and Multi-Hop Search with task-specialized teacher models show that TurnOPD achieves superior validation accuracy under equal wall-clock training budgets and advances the accuracy--time frontier beyond vanilla OPD.

Robust training and validation of Autonomous Driving Systems (ADS) require massive, diverse datasets. Proprietary data collected by Autonomous Vehicle (AV) fleets, while high-fidelity, are limited in scale, diversity of sensor configurations, as well as geographic and long-tail-behavioral coverage. In contrast, in-the-wild data from sources like dashcams offers immense scale and diversity, capturing critical long-tail scenarios and novel environments. However, this unstructured, in-the-wild video data is incompatible with ADS expecting structured, multi-modal sensor inputs for validation and training. To bridge this data gap, we propose Sensor2Sensor, a novel generative modeling paradigm that translates in-the-wild monocular dashcam videos into a high-fidelity, multi-modal sensor suite (AV logs) comprising multi-view camera images and LiDAR point clouds. A core challenge is the lack of paired training data. We address this by converting real AV logs into dashcam-style videos via 4D Gaussian Splatting (4DGS) reconstruction and novel-view rendering. Sensor2Sensor then utilizes a diffusion architecture to perform the generative conversion. We perform comprehensive quantitative evaluations on the fidelity and realism of the generated sensor data. We demonstrate Sensor2Sensor's practical utility by converting challenging in-the-wild internet and dashcam footage into realistic, multi-modal data formats, further unlocking vast external data sources for AV development.

Sensitivity to false assumptions (or false premises) in information-seeking questions is critical for robust question-answering (QA) systems. Recent work has shown that false assumptions in naturally occurring questions pose challenges to current models, with low performance on both generative QA and simple detection tasks (Kim et al. 2023). However, the focus of existing work on naturally occurring questions leads to a gap in the analysis of model behavior on the long tail of the distribution of possible questions. To this end, we introduce Syn-(QA)^2, a set of two synthetically generated QA datasets: one generated using perturbed relations from Wikidata, and the other by perturbing HotpotQA (Yang et al. 2018). Our findings from evaluating a range of large language models are threefold: (1) false assumptions in QA are challenging, echoing the findings of prior work, (2) the binary detection task is challenging even compared to the difficulty of generative QA itself, possibly due to the linguistic structure of the problem, and (3) the detection task is more challenging with long-tail questions compared to naturally occurring questions, highlighting the utility of our synthetic datasets and generation method.

Autonomous Driving (AD) systems have made notable progress, but their performance in long-tail, safety-critical scenarios remains limited. These rare cases contribute a disproportionate number of accidents. Vision-Language Action (VLA) models have strong reasoning abilities and offer a potential solution, but their effectiveness is limited by the lack of high-quality data and inefficient learning in such conditions. To address these challenges, we propose CoReVLA, a continual learning end-to-end autonomous driving framework that improves the performance in long-tail scenarios through a dual-stage process of data Collection and behavior Refinement. First, the model is jointly fine-tuned on a mixture of open-source driving QA datasets, allowing it to acquire a foundational understanding of driving scenarios. Next, CoReVLA is deployed within the Cave Automatic Virtual Environment (CAVE) simulation platform, where driver takeover data is collected from real-time interactions. Each takeover indicates a long-tail scenario that CoReVLA fails to handle reliably. Finally, the model is refined via Direct Preference Optimization (DPO), allowing it to learn directly from human preferences and thereby avoid reward hacking caused by manually designed rewards. Extensive open-loop and closed-loop experiments demonstrate that the proposed CoReVLA model can accurately perceive driving scenarios and make appropriate decisions. On the Bench2Drive benchmark, CoReVLA achieves a Driving Score (DS) of 72.18 and a Success Rate (SR) of 50%, outperforming state-of-the-art methods by 7.96 DS and 15% SR under long-tail, safety-critical scenarios. Furthermore, case studies demonstrate the model's ability to continually improve its performance in similar failure-prone scenarios by leveraging past takeover experiences. All codea and preprocessed datasets are available at: https://github.com/FanGShiYuu/CoReVLA

Click-Through Rate (CTR) prediction is a crucial task in recommendation systems, online searches, and advertising platforms, where accurately capturing users' real interests in content is essential for performance. However, existing methods heavily rely on ID embeddings, which fail to reflect users' true preferences for content such as images and titles. This limitation becomes particularly evident in cold-start and long-tail scenarios, where traditional approaches struggle to deliver effective results. To address these challenges, we propose a novel Multi-modal Content Interest Modeling paradigm (MIM), which consists of three key stages: Pre-training, Content-Interest-Aware Supervised Fine-Tuning (C-SFT), and Content-Interest-Aware UBM (CiUBM). The pre-training stage adapts foundational models to domain-specific data, enabling the extraction of high-quality multi-modal embeddings. The C-SFT stage bridges the semantic gap between content and user interests by leveraging user behavior signals to guide the alignment of embeddings with user preferences. Finally, the CiUBM stage integrates multi-modal embeddings and ID-based collaborative filtering signals into a unified framework. Comprehensive offline experiments and online A/B tests conducted on the Taobao, one of the world's largest e-commerce platforms, demonstrated the effectiveness and efficiency of MIM method. The method has been successfully deployed online, achieving a significant increase of +14.14% in CTR and +4.12% in RPM, showcasing its industrial applicability and substantial impact on platform performance. To promote further research, we have publicly released the code and dataset at https://pan.quark.cn/s/8fc8ec3e74f3.

A recent study by Feldman (2020) proposed a long-tail theory to explain the memorization behavior of deep learning models. However, memorization has not been empirically verified in the context of NLP, a gap addressed by this work. In this paper, we use three different NLP tasks to check if the long-tail theory holds. Our experiments demonstrate that top-ranked memorized training instances are likely atypical, and removing the top-memorized training instances leads to a more serious drop in test accuracy compared with removing training instances randomly. Furthermore, we develop an attribution method to better understand why a training instance is memorized. We empirically show that our memorization attribution method is faithful, and share our interesting finding that the top-memorized parts of a training instance tend to be features negatively correlated with the class label.

Evaluating the performance of autonomous vehicle planning algorithms necessitates simulating long-tail safety-critical traffic scenarios. However, traditional methods for generating such scenarios often fall short in terms of controllability and realism; they also neglect the dynamics of agent interactions. To address these limitations, we introduce SAFE-SIM, a novel diffusion-based controllable closed-loop safety-critical simulation framework. Our approach yields two distinct advantages: 1) generating realistic long-tail safety-critical scenarios that closely reflect real-world conditions, and 2) providing controllable adversarial behavior for more comprehensive and interactive evaluations. We develop a novel approach to simulate safety-critical scenarios through an adversarial term in the denoising process of diffusion models, which allows an adversarial agent to challenge a planner with plausible maneuvers while all agents in the scene exhibit reactive and realistic behaviors. Furthermore, we propose novel guidance objectives and a partial diffusion process that enables users to control key aspects of the scenarios, such as the collision type and aggressiveness of the adversarial agent, while maintaining the realism of the behavior. We validate our framework empirically using the nuScenes and nuPlan datasets across multiple planners, demonstrating improvements in both realism and controllability. These findings affirm that diffusion models provide a robust and versatile foundation for safety-critical, interactive traffic simulation, extending their utility across the broader autonomous driving landscape. Project website: https://safe-sim.github.io/.

End-to-end multi-modal planning has become a transformative paradigm in autonomous driving, effectively addressing behavioral multi-modality and the generalization challenge in long-tail scenarios. We propose AnchDrive, a framework for end-to-end driving that effectively bootstraps a diffusion policy to mitigate the high computational cost of traditional generative models. Rather than denoising from pure noise, AnchDrive initializes its planner with a rich set of hybrid trajectory anchors. These anchors are derived from two complementary sources: a static vocabulary of general driving priors and a set of dynamic, context-aware trajectories. The dynamic trajectories are decoded in real-time by a Transformer that processes dense and sparse perceptual features. The diffusion model then learns to refine these anchors by predicting a distribution of trajectory offsets, enabling fine-grained refinement. This anchor-based bootstrapping design allows for efficient generation of diverse, high-quality trajectories. Experiments on the NAVSIM benchmark confirm that AnchDrive sets a new state-of-the-art and shows strong generalizability

We propose the first metric learning system for the recognition of great ape behavioural actions. Our proposed triple stream embedding architecture works on camera trap videos taken directly in the wild and demonstrates that the utilisation of an explicit DensePose-C chimpanzee body part segmentation stream effectively complements traditional RGB appearance and optical flow streams. We evaluate system variants with different feature fusion techniques and long-tail recognition approaches. Results and ablations show performance improvements of ~12% in top-1 accuracy over previous results achieved on the PanAf-500 dataset containing 180,000 manually annotated frames across nine behavioural actions. Furthermore, we provide a qualitative analysis of our findings and augment the metric learning system with long-tail recognition techniques showing that average per class accuracy -- critical in the domain -- can be improved by ~23% compared to the literature on that dataset. Finally, since our embedding spaces are constructed as metric, we provide first data-driven visualisations of the great ape behavioural action spaces revealing emerging geometry and topology. We hope that the work sparks further interest in this vital application area of computer vision for the benefit of endangered great apes.

Accurate prediction of pedestrians' future motions is critical for intelligent driving systems. Developing models for this task requires rich datasets containing diverse sets of samples. However, the existing naturalistic trajectory prediction datasets are generally imbalanced in favor of simpler samples and lack challenging scenarios. Such a long-tail effect causes prediction models to underperform on the tail portion of the data distribution containing safety-critical scenarios. Previous methods tackle the long-tail problem using methods such as contrastive learning and class-conditioned hypernetworks. These approaches, however, are not modular and cannot be applied to many machine learning architectures. In this work, we propose a modular model-agnostic framework for trajectory prediction that leverages a specialized mixture of experts. In our approach, each expert is trained with a specialized skill with respect to a particular part of the data. To produce predictions, we utilise a router network that selects the best expert by generating relative confidence scores. We conduct experimentation on common pedestrian trajectory prediction datasets and show that besides achieving state-of-the-art performance, our method significantly performs better on long-tail scenarios. We further conduct ablation studies to highlight the contribution of different proposed components.

We develop an econometric framework integrating heavy-tailed Student's t distributions with behavioral probability weighting while preserving infinite divisibility. Using 432{,}752 observations across 86 assets (2004--2024), we demonstrate Student's t specifications outperform Gaussian models in 88.4\% of cases. Bounded probability-weighting transformations preserve mathematical properties required for dynamic pricing. Gaussian models underestimate 99\% Value-at-Risk by 19.7\% versus 3.2\% for our specification. Joint estimation procedures identify tail and behavioral parameters with established asymptotic properties. Results provide robust inference for asset-pricing applications where heavy tails and behavioral distortions coexist.

Long-tailed data distributions pose challenges for a variety of domains like e-commerce, finance, biomedical science, and cyber security, where the performance of machine learning models is often dominated by head categories while tail categories are inadequately learned. This work aims to provide a systematic view of long-tailed learning with regard to three pivotal angles: (A1) the characterization of data long-tailedness, (A2) the data complexity of various domains, and (A3) the heterogeneity of emerging tasks. We develop HeroLT, a comprehensive long-tailed learning benchmark integrating 18 state-of-the-art algorithms, 10 evaluation metrics, and 17 real-world datasets across 6 tasks and 4 data modalities. HeroLT with novel angles and extensive experiments (315 in total) enables effective and fair evaluation of newly proposed methods compared with existing baselines on varying dataset types. Finally, we conclude by highlighting the significant applications of long-tailed learning and identifying several promising future directions. For accessibility and reproducibility, we open-source our benchmark HeroLT and corresponding results at https://github.com/SSSKJ/HeroLT.

Long-horizon behavior prediction aims to infer a user's next action based on a lengthy historical sequence, playing a crucial role in artificial intelligence field. The rise of large language models (LLMs) offers a promising direction for sequential behavior prediction, yet LLMs struggle with latent behavioral pattern induction and model-intrinsic cognitive biases when tackling long-horizon behavior prediction. Prior memory management methods follow a context-compression paradigm that attempts to address this task by alleviating the historical sequence burden, yet fail to resolve the core challenges. In this paper, we advocate a paradigm shift that reframes the lengthy historical sequence from a burden into a valuable resource to be exploited, and accordingly propose PraMem, which conducts beforehand practice over the lengthy historical sequence to build an experiential memory, thereby serving as the assisted input for accurate long-horizon behavior prediction. Extensive experiments across diverse tasks demonstrate that PraMem achieves superior performance than prior methods, and more in-depth analyses provide valuable insights into the mechanism and evolution of the experiential memory. Code: https://github.com/icip-cas/PraMem.

Online inclusive financial services encounter significant financial risks due to their expansive user base and low default costs. By real-world practice, we reveal that utilizing longer-term user payment behaviors can enhance models' ability to forecast financial risks. However, learning long behavior sequences is non-trivial for deep sequential models. Additionally, the diverse fields of payment behaviors carry rich information, requiring thorough exploitation. These factors collectively complicate the task of long-term user behavior modeling. To tackle these challenges, we propose a Long-term Payment Behavior Sequence Folding method, referred to as LBSF. In LBSF, payment behavior sequences are folded based on merchants, using the merchant field as an intrinsic grouping criterion, which enables informative parallelism without reliance on external knowledge. Meanwhile, we maximize the utility of payment details through a multi-field behavior encoding mechanism. Subsequently, behavior aggregation at the merchant level followed by relational learning across merchants facilitates comprehensive user financial representation. We evaluate LBSF on the financial risk assessment task using a large-scale real-world dataset. The results demonstrate that folding long behavior sequences based on internal behavioral cues effectively models long-term patterns and changes, thereby generating more accurate user financial profiles for practical applications.

Natural data are often long-tail distributed over semantic classes. Existing recognition methods tackle this imbalanced classification by placing more emphasis on the tail data, through class re-balancing/re-weighting or ensembling over different data groups, resulting in increased tail accuracies but reduced head accuracies. We take a dynamic view of the training data and provide a principled model bias and variance analysis as the training data fluctuates: Existing long-tail classifiers invariably increase the model variance and the head-tail model bias gap remains large, due to more and larger confusion with hard negatives for the tail. We propose a new long-tailed classifier called RoutIng Diverse Experts (RIDE). It reduces the model variance with multiple experts, reduces the model bias with a distribution-aware diversity loss, reduces the computational cost with a dynamic expert routing module. RIDE outperforms the state-of-the-art by 5% to 7% on CIFAR100-LT, ImageNet-LT and iNaturalist 2018 benchmarks. It is also a universal framework that is applicable to various backbone networks, long-tailed algorithms, and training mechanisms for consistent performance gains. Our code is available at: https://github.com/frank-xwang/RIDE-LongTailRecognition.

Small-model agentic post-training is bottlenecked less by the algorithm than by the trajectory substrate it consumes. Leading recipes (RLVR, group-relative RL, rejection-sampled re-SFT) all need multi-turn traces carrying per-trajectory supervision, and the two existing sources fall short: frontier-synthesised data inherits the synthesizer's biases and collapses the long tail, while unfiltered production logs are unjudged and contaminated by shortcut behaviour. We argue that an incentive-aligned agent arena can be engineered to manufacture such trajectories, and demonstrate this on ORO Subnet 15 (SN15), a Bittensor deployment of the ShoppingBench agentic-commerce benchmark. SN15's race mechanism, LLM reasoning judge, and rotating leak-cluster-guarded problem suite yield a corpus with three properties: incentive-aligned diversity, per-trajectory judging, and anti-memorised held-out evaluation. We introduce a structural-quality filter that converts the raw firehose into a trainable corpus by keeping agentic trajectories (the model itself emits the tool calls) and rejecting sub-task trajectories (the model only classifies or narrates over a deterministic search loop), then post-train Qwen3-4B with a recipe matched to the published ShoppingBench SFT-then-GRPO pipeline. On a leak-cluster-guarded held-out partition scored production-strict, the model lifts from the published Qwen3-4B base of 18.0% ASR to 42.7%, within single-problem noise of the synthetic-data SFT-only baseline (43.6%), while training on a fraction of a single day of subnet output. The supervised stack leaves a large pass@8 to pass@1 gap (53.3% vs 34.8%); a per-step teacher-grounded Dr. GRPO reward converts that headroom into process improvement, and we identify the sub-task firehose as the primary lever for closing the gap to the 48.7% SFT+GRPO bar. We release the filter, the corpus splits, and the arena mechanics.

Real-world data tends to follow a long-tailed distribution, where the class imbalance results in dominance of the head classes during training. In this paper, we propose a frustratingly simple but effective step-wise learning framework to gradually enhance the capability of the model in detecting all categories of long-tailed datasets. Specifically, we build smooth-tail data where the long-tailed distribution of categories decays smoothly to correct the bias towards head classes. We pre-train a model on the whole long-tailed data to preserve discriminability between all categories. We then fine-tune the class-agnostic modules of the pre-trained model on the head class dominant replay data to get a head class expert model with improved decision boundaries from all categories. Finally, we train a unified model on the tail class dominant replay data while transferring knowledge from the head class expert model to ensure accurate detection of all categories. Extensive experiments on long-tailed datasets LVIS v0.5 and LVIS v1.0 demonstrate the superior performance of our method, where we can improve the AP with ResNet-50 backbone from 27.0% to 30.3% AP, and especially for the rare categories from 15.5% to 24.9% AP. Our best model using ResNet-101 backbone can achieve 30.7% AP, which suppresses all existing detectors using the same backbone.

As with most ``in the wild'' collections of the natural world, the North America Camera Trap Images (NACTI) dataset exhibits long-tailed class imbalance, with the largest class covering over 50% of its 3.7M images. Building on the PyTorch Wildlife model, we systematically evaluate Long-Tail Recognition (LTR) methodologies to benchmark species recognition performance, including specialised loss functions and LTR-sensitive regularisation. Our optimised configuration achieves state-of-the-art 99.40% Top-1 accuracy on the NACTI test split, significantly outperforming standard baselines and previously reported top performances. To assess robustness under domain shifts (e.g., night-time captures, occlusion, motion-blur), we extend our evaluation across three independent reduced-bias test sets (including ENA-Detection, Caltech Camera Traps and Missouri Camera Traps). Across these out-of-distribution (OOD) evaluations, our LTR-enhanced model consistently demonstrates substantially stronger generalisation capabilities compared to standard cross-entropy approaches. However, qualitative and quantitative analyses underline that current LTR optimisations cannot fully overcome representational bottlenecks, resulting in catastrophic predictive breakdown for rare `Tail' classes under severe domain shift. For maximum reproducibility, all dataset splits, key code, and network weights are published with this paper at https://github.com/ZehuaLiuY/Species-Classification.

Since large language models have approached human-level performance on many tasks, it has become increasingly harder for researchers to find tasks that are still challenging to the models. Failure cases usually come from the long-tail distribution - data that an oracle language model could assign a probability on the lower end of its distribution. Current methodology such as prompt engineering or crowdsourcing are insufficient for creating long-tail examples because humans are constrained by cognitive bias. We propose a Logic-Induced-Knowledge-Search (LINK) framework for systematically generating long-tail knowledge statements. Grounded by a symbolic rule, we search for long-tail values for each variable of the rule by first prompting a LLM, then verifying the correctness of the values with a critic, and lastly pushing for the long-tail distribution with a reranker. With this framework we construct a dataset, Logic-Induced-Long-Tail (LINT), consisting of 200 symbolic rules and 50K knowledge statements spanning across four domains. Human annotations find that 84% of the statements in LINT are factually correct. In contrast, ChatGPT and GPT4 struggle with directly generating long-tail statements under the guidance of logic rules, each only getting 56% and 78% of their statements correct. Moreover, their "long-tail" generations in fact fall into the higher likelihood range, and thus are not really long-tail. Our findings suggest that LINK is effective for generating data in the long-tail distribution while enforcing quality. LINT can be useful for systematically evaluating LLMs' capabilities in the long-tail distribution. We challenge the models with a simple entailment classification task using samples from LINT. We find that ChatGPT and GPT4's capability in identifying incorrect knowledge drop by ~3% in the long-tail distribution compared to head distribution.

The Growth-at-Risk (GaR) framework has garnered attention in recent econometric literature, yet current approaches implicitly assume a constant Pareto exponent. We introduce novel and robust econometrics to estimate the tails of GaR based on a rigorous theoretical framework and establish validity and effectiveness. Simulations demonstrate consistent outperformance relative to existing alternatives in terms of predictive accuracy. We perform a long-term GaR analysis that provides accurate and insightful predictions, effectively capturing financial anomalies better than current methods.

Long-tailed learning has garnered increasing attention due to its practical significance. Among the various approaches, the fine-tuning paradigm has gained considerable interest with the advent of foundation models. However, most existing methods primarily focus on leveraging knowledge from these models, overlooking the inherent biases introduced by the imbalanced training data they rely on. In this paper, we examine how such imbalances from pre-training affect long-tailed downstream tasks. Specifically, we find the imbalance biases inherited in foundation models on downstream task as parameter imbalance and data imbalance. During fine-tuning, we observe that parameter imbalance plays a more critical role, while data imbalance can be mitigated using existing re-balancing strategies. Moreover, we find that parameter imbalance cannot be effectively addressed by current re-balancing techniques, such as adjusting the logits, during training, unlike data imbalance. To tackle both imbalances simultaneously, we build our method on causal learning and view the incomplete semantic factor as the confounder, which brings spurious correlations between input samples and labels. To resolve the negative effects of this, we propose a novel backdoor adjustment method that learns the true causal effect between input samples and labels, rather than merely fitting the correlations in the data. Notably, we achieve an average performance increase of about 1.67% on each dataset.

Scaling robust driving policies is fundamentally bottlenecked by the scarcity of edge cases in curated datasets. While the real world continuously captures these critical events, such long-tail events remain underutilized when collected from heterogeneous sources. Specifically, diverse but valuable in-the-wild long-tail videos lack the full view coverage required for training policy models, often missing multi-view poses or originating solely from monocular dash cameras. This modality gap prevents these ubiquitous observations from being converted into scalable training data for long-tail generalization. We introduce OpenLongTail, an open-source generative data engine for scaling autonomous driving policies under long-tail events. To transform heterogeneous data sources into view-aligned and temporally coherent multi-view assets that are useful for policy learning, we develop a pose-informed extrapolative view synthesis pipeline that generates the missing views. We further enhance cross-view consistency and the temporal alignment for the newly generated views by injecting Plücker ray geometry into the scalable generation engine. By synthesizing heterogeneous long-tail data, we observe a significant improvement in closed-loop driving robustness in handling long-tail events. By measuring the extrapolative view synthesis and pose metrics, we validate the effectiveness of OpenLongTail in visual fidelity, cross-view consistency, and ego-trajectory recovery.

Long-tailed classification is challenging due to its heavy imbalance in class probabilities. While existing methods often focus on overall accuracy or accuracy for tail classes, they overlook a critical aspect: certain types of errors can carry greater risks than others in real-world long-tailed problems. For example, misclassifying patients (a tail class) as healthy individuals (a head class) entails far more serious consequences than the reverse scenario. To address this critical issue, we introduce Making Reliable and Flexible Decisions in Long-tailed Classification (RF-DLC), a novel framework aimed at reliable predictions in long-tailed problems. Leveraging Bayesian Decision Theory, we introduce an integrated gain to seamlessly combine long-tailed data distributions and the decision-making procedure. We further propose an efficient variational optimization strategy for the decision risk objective. Our method adapts readily to diverse utility matrices, which can be designed for specific tasks, ensuring its flexibility for different problem settings. In empirical evaluation, we design a new metric, False Head Rate, to quantify tail-sensitivity risk, along with comprehensive experiments on multiple real-world tasks, including large-scale image classification and uncertainty quantification, to demonstrate the reliability and flexibility of our method.

Learning the tail behavior of a distribution is a notoriously difficult problem. By definition, the number of samples from the tail is small, and deep generative models, such as normalizing flows, tend to concentrate on learning the body of the distribution. In this paper, we focus on improving the ability of normalizing flows to correctly capture the tail behavior and, thus, form more accurate models. We prove that the marginal tailedness of an autoregressive flow can be controlled via the tailedness of the marginals of its base distribution. This theoretical insight leads us to a novel type of flows based on flexible base distributions and data-driven linear layers. An empirical analysis shows that the proposed method improves on the accuracy -- especially on the tails of the distribution -- and is able to generate heavy-tailed data. We demonstrate its application on a weather and climate example, in which capturing the tail behavior is essential.

The long-tail distribution of the visual world poses great challenges for deep learning based classification models on how to handle the class imbalance problem. Existing solutions usually involve class-balancing strategies, e.g., by loss re-weighting, data re-sampling, or transfer learning from head- to tail-classes, but most of them adhere to the scheme of jointly learning representations and classifiers. In this work, we decouple the learning procedure into representation learning and classification, and systematically explore how different balancing strategies affect them for long-tailed recognition. The findings are surprising: (1) data imbalance might not be an issue in learning high-quality representations; (2) with representations learned with the simplest instance-balanced (natural) sampling, it is also possible to achieve strong long-tailed recognition ability by adjusting only the classifier. We conduct extensive experiments and set new state-of-the-art performance on common long-tailed benchmarks like ImageNet-LT, Places-LT and iNaturalist, showing that it is possible to outperform carefully designed losses, sampling strategies, even complex modules with memory, by using a straightforward approach that decouples representation and classification. Our code is available at https://github.com/facebookresearch/classifier-balancing.

Recent studies indicate that NLU models are prone to rely on shortcut features for prediction, without achieving true language understanding. As a result, these models fail to generalize to real-world out-of-distribution data. In this work, we show that the words in the NLU training set can be modeled as a long-tailed distribution. There are two findings: 1) NLU models have strong preference for features located at the head of the long-tailed distribution, and 2) Shortcut features are picked up during very early few iterations of the model training. These two observations are further employed to formulate a measurement which can quantify the shortcut degree of each training sample. Based on this shortcut measurement, we propose a shortcut mitigation framework LTGR, to suppress the model from making overconfident predictions for samples with large shortcut degree. Experimental results on three NLU benchmarks demonstrate that our long-tailed distribution explanation accurately reflects the shortcut learning behavior of NLU models. Experimental analysis further indicates that LTGR can improve the generalization accuracy on OOD data, while preserving the accuracy on in-distribution data.

One of the most profound challenges of modern machine learning is performing well on the long-tail of rare and underrepresented features. Large general-purpose models are trained for many tasks, but work best on high-frequency use cases. After training, it is hard to adapt a model to perform well on specific use cases underrepresented in the training corpus. Relying on prompt engineering or few-shot examples to maximize the output quality on a particular test case can be frustrating, as models can be highly sensitive to small changes, react in unpredicted ways or rely on a fixed system prompt for maintaining performance. In this work, we ask: "Can we optimize our training protocols to both improve controllability and performance on underrepresented use cases at inference time?" We revisit the divide between training and inference techniques to improve long-tail performance while providing users with a set of control levers the model is trained to be responsive to. We create a detailed taxonomy of data characteristics and task provenance to explicitly control generation attributes and implicitly condition generations at inference time. We fine-tune a base model to infer these markers automatically, which makes them optional at inference time. This principled and flexible approach yields pronounced improvements in performance, especially on examples from the long tail of the training distribution. While we observe an average lift of 5.7% win rates in open-ended generation quality with our markers, we see over 9.1% gains in underrepresented domains. We also observe relative lifts of up to 14.1% on underrepresented tasks like CodeRepair and absolute improvements of 35.3% on length instruction following evaluations.

Marcinkiewicz strong law of large numbers, {n^{-frac1p}}sum_{k=1}^{n} (d_{k}- d)rightarrow 0 almost surely with pin(1,2), are developed for products d_k=prod_{r=1}^s x_k^{(r)}, where the x_k^{(r)} = sum_{l=-infty}^{infty}c_{k-l}^{(r)}xi_l^{(r)} are two-sided linear processes with coefficients {c_l^{(r)}}_{lin Z} and i.i.d. zero-mean innovations {xi_l^{(r)}}_{lin Z}. The decay of the coefficients c_l^{(r)} as |l|toinfty, can be slow enough for {x_k^{(r)}} to have long memory while {d_k} can have heavy tails. The long-range dependence and heavy tails for {d_k} are handled simultaneously and a decoupling property shows the convergence rate is dictated by the worst of long-range dependence and heavy tails, but not their combination. The Marcinkiewicz strong law of large numbers is also extended to the multivariate linear process case.

Long-tail recognition is challenging because it requires the model to learn good representations from tail categories and address imbalances across all categories. In this paper, we propose a novel generative and fine-tuning framework, LTGC, to handle long-tail recognition via leveraging generated content. Firstly, inspired by the rich implicit knowledge in large-scale models (e.g., large language models, LLMs), LTGC leverages the power of these models to parse and reason over the original tail data to produce diverse tail-class content. We then propose several novel designs for LTGC to ensure the quality of the generated data and to efficiently fine-tune the model using both the generated and original data. The visualization demonstrates the effectiveness of the generation module in LTGC, which produces accurate and diverse tail data. Additionally, the experimental results demonstrate that our LTGC outperforms existing state-of-the-art methods on popular long-tailed benchmarks.

The performance of trend following strategies can be ascribed to the difference between long-term and short-term realized variance. We revisit this general result and show that it holds for various definitions of trend strategies. This explains the positive convexity of the aggregate performance of Commodity Trading Advisors (CTAs) which -- when adequately measured -- turns out to be much stronger than anticipated. We also highlight interesting connections with so-called Risk Parity portfolios. Finally, we propose a new portfolio of strangle options that provides a pure exposure to the long-term variance of the underlying, offering yet another viewpoint on the link between trend and volatility.

To schedule LLM inference, the shortest job first (SJF) principle is favorable by prioritizing requests with short output lengths to avoid head-of-line (HOL) blocking. Existing methods usually predict a single output length for each request to facilitate scheduling. We argue that such a point estimate does not match the stochastic decoding process of LLM inference, where output length is uncertain by nature and determined by when the end-of-sequence (EOS) token is sampled. Hence, the output length of each request should be fitted with a distribution rather than a single value. With an in-depth analysis of empirical data and the stochastic decoding process, we observe that output length follows a heavy-tailed distribution and can be fitted with the log-t distribution. On this basis, we propose a simple metric called Tail Inflated Expectation (TIE) to replace the output length in SJF scheduling, which adjusts the expectation of a log-t distribution with its tail probabilities to account for the risk that a request generates long outputs. To evaluate our TIE scheduler, we compare it with three strong baselines, and the results show that TIE reduces the per-token latency by 2.31times for online inference and improves throughput by 1.42times for offline data generation.

Deep long-tailed learning, one of the most challenging problems in visual recognition, aims to train well-performing deep models from a large number of images that follow a long-tailed class distribution. In the last decade, deep learning has emerged as a powerful recognition model for learning high-quality image representations and has led to remarkable breakthroughs in generic visual recognition. However, long-tailed class imbalance, a common problem in practical visual recognition tasks, often limits the practicality of deep network based recognition models in real-world applications, since they can be easily biased towards dominant classes and perform poorly on tail classes. To address this problem, a large number of studies have been conducted in recent years, making promising progress in the field of deep long-tailed learning. Considering the rapid evolution of this field, this paper aims to provide a comprehensive survey on recent advances in deep long-tailed learning. To be specific, we group existing deep long-tailed learning studies into three main categories (i.e., class re-balancing, information augmentation and module improvement), and review these methods following this taxonomy in detail. Afterward, we empirically analyze several state-of-the-art methods by evaluating to what extent they address the issue of class imbalance via a newly proposed evaluation metric, i.e., relative accuracy. We conclude the survey by highlighting important applications of deep long-tailed learning and identifying several promising directions for future research.

Real-world data analysis is inherently iterative, yet existing benchmarks mostly evaluate isolated or short interactive tasks, leaving agents' ability to track evolving analytical context over long horizons untested. We introduce LongDS, a benchmark for long-horizon, multi-turn data analysis where agents must maintain, update, restore, and compose evolving analytical states. LongDS comprises 68 tasks constructed from real-world Kaggle notebooks, spanning 2,225 turns across six domains including Geoscience, Business, and Education. Tasks are designed around state-evolution patterns (e.g., counterfactual perturbation, rollback, multi-state composition), with an average dependency span of 11.3 turns. Evaluating five state-of-the-art models, we find that the best model reaches only 48.45% average accuracy, performance drops nearly 47 points from early to late turns, and long-horizon errors account for 52%--69% of failures. Further analysis shows that additional agent steps do not necessarily improve performance, suggesting that the key bottleneck is maintaining a correct analytical state rather than increasing interaction budget. We release LongDS to support research on reliable long-horizon agentic data analysis. Code and data will be released at https://github.com/zjunlp/DataMind.

Training and evaluating autonomous driving algorithms requires a diverse range of scenarios. However, most available datasets predominantly consist of normal driving behaviors demonstrated by human drivers, resulting in a limited number of safety-critical cases. This imbalance, often referred to as a long-tail distribution, restricts the ability of driving algorithms to learn from crucial scenarios involving risk or failure, scenarios that are essential for humans to develop driving skills efficiently. To generate such scenarios, we utilize Multi-modal Large Language Models to convert crash reports of accidents into a structured scenario format, which can be directly executed within simulations. Specifically, we introduce CrashAgent, a multi-agent framework designed to interpret multi-modal real-world traffic crash reports for the generation of both road layouts and the behaviors of the ego vehicle and surrounding traffic participants. We comprehensively evaluate the generated crash scenarios from multiple perspectives, including the accuracy of layout reconstruction, collision rate, and diversity. The resulting high-quality and large-scale crash dataset will be publicly available to support the development of safe driving algorithms in handling safety-critical situations.

Agentic reinforcement learning has enabled large language models to perform complex multi-turn planning and tool use. However, learning in long-horizon settings remains challenging due to sparse, trajectory-level outcome rewards. While prior tree-based methods attempt to mitigate this issue, they often suffer from high variance and computational inefficiency. Through empirical analysis of search agents, We identify a common pattern: performance diverges mainly due to decisions near the tail. Motivated by this observation, we propose Branching Relative Policy Optimization (BranPO), a value-free method that provides step-level contrastive supervision without dense rewards. BranPO truncates trajectories near the tail and resamples alternative continuations to construct contrastive suffixes over shared prefixes, reducing credit ambiguity in long-horizon rollouts. To further boost efficiency and stabilize training, we introduce difficulty-aware branch sampling to adapt branching frequency across tasks, and redundant step masking to suppress uninformative actions. Extensive experiments on various question answering benchmarks demonstrate that BranPO consistently outperforms strong baselines, achieving significant accuracy gains on long-horizon tasks without increasing the overall training budget. Our code is available at https://github.com/YubaoZhao/BranPO{code}.

Existing long-tailed recognition methods, aiming to train class-balanced models from long-tailed data, generally assume the models would be evaluated on the uniform test class distribution. However, practical test class distributions often violate this assumption (e.g., being either long-tailed or even inversely long-tailed), which may lead existing methods to fail in real applications. In this paper, we study a more practical yet challenging task, called test-agnostic long-tailed recognition, where the training class distribution is long-tailed while the test class distribution is agnostic and not necessarily uniform. In addition to the issue of class imbalance, this task poses another challenge: the class distribution shift between the training and test data is unknown. To tackle this task, we propose a novel approach, called Self-supervised Aggregation of Diverse Experts, which consists of two strategies: (i) a new skill-diverse expert learning strategy that trains multiple experts from a single and stationary long-tailed dataset to separately handle different class distributions; (ii) a novel test-time expert aggregation strategy that leverages self-supervision to aggregate the learned multiple experts for handling unknown test class distributions. We theoretically show that our self-supervised strategy has a provable ability to simulate test-agnostic class distributions. Promising empirical results demonstrate the effectiveness of our method on both vanilla and test-agnostic long-tailed recognition. Code is available at https://github.com/Vanint/SADE-AgnosticLT.

We propose a multi-agent collaborative framework built upon a lightweight Multimodal Large Language Model (MLLM), specifically designed for social intelligence reasoning. A key feature of our approach is that both the training and inference phases are augmented via knowledge distillation. Within this architecture, multi-modal data pertinent to social intelligence is precisely localized. Furthermore, relevant long-tail events are identified, extracted, and rendered as formatted, explicit text. This formatting strategy prevents critical long-tail information from being overshadowed by head events and environmental noise during the tokenization process. Specifically, we integrate Test-Time Adaptation (TTA) across the entire reasoning pipeline, encompassing the extraction and representation of long-tail events, Chain-of-Thought (CoT) prompting, and self-reflection. This TTA mechanism is also distillation-enhanced, utilizing Low-Rank Adaptation (LoRA) to fine-tune the foundation model exclusively for instance-level reasoning. Extensive evaluations against various open-source and proprietary AI models across multiple benchmarks demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed framework. With around 30% of training data from IntentTrain, we achieve state-of-the-art results. Codes are available at https://github.com/eeee-sys/MODF-SIR, demo is available at https://huggingface.co/spaces/Harry-1234/MODF-SIR, LoRA is available at https://huggingface.co/Harry-1234/MODF-SIR and the dataset for training router is available at https://huggingface.co/datasets/Harry-1234/IntentRouterTrain.

Long-tailed semi-supervised learning (LTSSL) presents a formidable challenge where models must overcome the scarcity of tail samples while mitigating the noise from unreliable pseudo-labels. Most prior LTSSL methods are designed to train models from scratch, which often leads to issues such as overconfidence and low-quality pseudo-labels. To address this problem, we first theoretically prove that utilizing a foundation model significantly reduces the hypothesis complexity, which tightens the generalization bound and in turn minimizes the Balanced Posterior Error (BPE). Furthermore, we demonstrate that the feature compactness of foundation models strictly compresses the acceptance region for outliers, providing a geometric guarantee for robustness. Motivated by these theoretical insights, we extend LTSSL into the foundation model fine-tuning paradigm and propose a novel framework: LoFT (Long-tailed semi-supervised learning via parameter-efficient Fine-Tuning). Furthermore, we explore a more practical setting by investigating semi-supervised learning under open-world conditions, where the unlabeled data may include out-of-distribution (OOD) samples.To handle this problem, we propose LoFT-OW (LoFT under Open-World scenarios) to improve the discriminative ability. Experimental results on multiple benchmarks demonstrate that our method achieves superior performance. Code is available: https://github.com/games-liker/LoFT

Reinforcement learning (RL) has emerged as a standard post-training paradigm for shaping large language models (LLMs) into capable agents. In agentic RL, the rollout stage generates trajectories while invoking tools, producing long-tailed and non-stationary workloads that expose two fundamental challenges in resource management. First, due to the long-tail distribution, a small fraction of trajectories dominates rollout makespan. Second, rollout and training are subject to cross-stage imbalance, as they exhibit strong asymmetry in compute patterns, memory demands, and sensitivity to sequence length. Compounding this asymmetry, the sequence length distribution drifts continuously as the policy evolves, rendering any static resource split progressively suboptimal. We present Libra, a resource management system to address both challenges via two core mechanisms. The first is a global resource planner that jointly optimizes GPU allocation across rollout and training clusters. It leverages an elastic hybrid pool to enable lightweight, non-blocking worker reallocation between stages. The second is a causality-driven multi-level feedback queue (C-MLFQ) scheduler, which routes requests to heterogeneous rollout buckets based on causal signals derived from tool-return outcomes, rather than relying on fragile length predictions. Evaluated on 48 A800 GPUs, Libra achieves up to 3.0x higher throughput and converges up to 2.5x faster in reward compared to the baselines.

Long-tailed classification poses a challenge due to its heavy imbalance in class probabilities and tail-sensitivity risks with asymmetric misprediction costs. Recent attempts have used re-balancing loss and ensemble methods, but they are largely heuristic and depend heavily on empirical results, lacking theoretical explanation. Furthermore, existing methods overlook the decision loss, which characterizes different costs associated with tailed classes. This paper presents a general and principled framework from a Bayesian-decision-theory perspective, which unifies existing techniques including re-balancing and ensemble methods, and provides theoretical justifications for their effectiveness. From this perspective, we derive a novel objective based on the integrated risk and a Bayesian deep-ensemble approach to improve the accuracy of all classes, especially the "tail". Besides, our framework allows for task-adaptive decision loss which provides provably optimal decisions in varying task scenarios, along with the capability to quantify uncertainty. Finally, We conduct comprehensive experiments, including standard classification, tail-sensitive classification with a new False Head Rate metric, calibration, and ablation studies. Our framework significantly improves the current SOTA even on large-scale real-world datasets like ImageNet.

Reinforcement fine-tuning (RFT) often suffers from reward over-optimization, where a policy model hacks the reward signals to achieve high scores while producing low-quality outputs. Our theoretical analysis shows that the key lies in reward misspecification at the high-reward tail: the inability to reliably distinguish Excellent responses from merely Great ones. This motivate us to focus on the high-reward region. However, such tail examples are scarce under the base LLM. While off-policy exemplars (e.g. from stronger models or rewrites) are easier to obtain, naively training on them yields a misspecified reward for the policy we aim to align. To address this, we study rubric-based rewards. By design, rubrics can leverage off-policy examples while remaining insensitive to their artifacts. To elicit rubrics that capture the high-reward tail, we highlight the importance of distinguishing among great and diverse responses, and introduce a workflow to implement this idea. We empirically demonstrate that rubric-based rewards substantially mitigate reward over-optimization and deliver effective LLM post-training improvements. Our code can be accessed at https://github.com/Jun-Kai-Zhang/rubrics.git .

Multimodal large language models (MLLMs) struggle with numerical regression under long-tailed target distributions. Token-level supervised fine-tuning (SFT) and point-wise regression rewards bias learning toward high-density regions, leading to regression-to-the-mean behavior and poor tail performance. We identify the lack of cross-sample relational supervision as a key limitation of existing MLLM training paradigms. To address it, we propose a distribution-aware reinforcement learning framework based on Group Relative Policy Optimization, which introduces batch-level comparison-based supervision via the Concordance Correlation Coefficient-based reward to align predicted and ground-truth distributions in terms of correlation, scale, and mean. The framework is plug-and-play, requiring no architectural modification. Experiments on a unified suite of long-tailed regression benchmarks show consistent improvements over SFT and existing MLLM regression methods, with particularly strong gains in medium- and few-shot regimes.

Data collected from the real world typically exhibit long-tailed distributions, where frequent classes contain abundant data while rare ones have only a limited number of samples. While existing supervised learning approaches have been proposed to tackle such data imbalance, the requirement of label supervision would limit their applicability to real-world scenarios in which label annotation might not be available. Without the access to class labels nor the associated class frequencies, we propose Frequency-Aware Self-Supervised Learning (FASSL) in this paper. Targeting at learning from unlabeled data with inherent long-tailed distributions, the goal of FASSL is to produce discriminative feature representations for downstream classification tasks. In FASSL, we first learn frequency-aware prototypes, reflecting the associated long-tailed distribution. Particularly focusing on rare-class samples, the relationships between image data and the derived prototypes are further exploited with the introduced self-supervised learning scheme. Experiments on long-tailed image datasets quantitatively and qualitatively verify the effectiveness of our learning scheme.

Meta-learning has emerged as an effective methodology to model several real-world tasks and problems due to its extraordinary effectiveness in the low-data regime. There are many scenarios ranging from the classification of rare diseases to language modelling of uncommon languages where the availability of large datasets is rare. Similarly, for more broader scenarios like self-driving, an autonomous vehicle needs to be trained to handle every situation well. This requires training the ML model on a variety of tasks with good quality data. But often times, we find that the data distribution across various tasks is skewed, i.e.the data follows a long-tail distribution. This leads to the model performing well on some tasks and not performing so well on others leading to model robustness issues. Meta-learning has recently emerged as a potential learning paradigm which can effectively learn from one task and generalize that learning to unseen tasks. In this study, we aim to exploit external knowledge of task relations to improve training stability via effective mini-batching of tasks. We hypothesize that selecting a diverse set of tasks in a mini-batch will lead to a better estimate of the full gradient and hence will lead to a reduction of noise in training.

Recognition problems in long-tailed data, in which the sample size per class is heavily skewed, have gained importance because the distribution of the sample size per class in a dataset is generally exponential unless the sample size is intentionally adjusted. Various methods have been devised to address these problems. Recently, weight balancing, which combines well-known classical regularization techniques with two-stage training, has been proposed. Despite its simplicity, it is known for its high performance compared with existing methods devised in various ways. However, there is a lack of understanding as to why this method is effective for long-tailed data. In this study, we analyze weight balancing by focusing on neural collapse and the cone effect at each training stage and found that it can be decomposed into an increase in Fisher's discriminant ratio of the feature extractor caused by weight decay and cross entropy loss and implicit logit adjustment caused by weight decay and class-balanced loss. Our analysis enables the training method to be further simplified by reducing the number of training stages to one while increasing accuracy.

Internet photo collections exhibit an extremely long-tailed distribution: a few famous landmarks are densely photographed and easily reconstructed in 3D, while most real-world sites are represented with sparse, noisy, uneven imagery beyond the capabilities of both classical and learned 3D methods. We believe that tackling this long-tail regime represents one of the next frontiers for 3D foundation models. Although reliable ground-truth 3D supervision from sparse scenes is challenging to acquire, we observe that it can be effectively simulated by sampling sparse subsets from well-reconstructed Internet landmarks. To this end, we introduce MegaDepth-X, a large dataset of 3D reconstructions with clean, dense depth, together with a strategy for sampling sets of training images that mimic camera distributions in long-tail scenes. Finetuning 3D foundation models with these components yields robust reconstructions under extreme sparsity, and also enables more reliable reconstruction in symmetric and repetitive scenes, while preserving generalization to standard, dense 3D benchmark datasets.

We study how the next-token prediction of an autoregressive Transformer language model changes under small perturbations of earlier input token embeddings. Motivated by operator learning and iterative solvers for differential equations, we investigate how the influence of one token on another decays with distance in a trained model. In multilevel methods for differential equations, such as domain decomposition, multigrid, and multilevel preconditioning, one often exploits a separation between strong local interactions and weaker but essential global interactions. The latter correspond to the long tail of the Green's function and are typically handled by a coarse-level operator. Inspired by this perspective, we compute an empirical, distance-resolved gradient profile of token dependencies using autograd. Experiments on trained Pythia models and Qwen2.5-0.5B show that, over the measured distance range, the median Jacobian sensitivity is much better described by a power-law-type decay than by an exponential alternative: the diagonal-normalized profile is well described by $overline G(r) approx γ+β(r+1)^{-p} with exponents p \approx 0.7--0.9 (typically 0.8--0.9$). This behavior appears on coherent text from Gutenberg and WikiText-103. Token-shuffling experiments show that the power-law profile persists even when syntax and prediction quality collapse, whereas randomly initialized models do not exhibit it. The slowly decaying long-range sensitivity thus appears to be a learned property of trained autoregressive Transformer operators. These findings suggest that hierarchical or coarse-level mechanisms in language models may be able to exploit the long-tailed sensitivity profiles.

Real-world data often exhibit extreme imbalances and out-of-distribution (OOD) instances, which significantly biases the model training. While it has been extensively studied in vision and language domains separately, the impact of long-tailed open worlds on multi-modal large language models (MLLMs) has been largely overlooked. In this paper, we first demonstrate the susceptibility and vulnerability of vision-language models to significant biases caused by tail drift and out-of-distribution (OOD) drift during both the pre-training and fine-tuning stages. To eliminate the bias from different sources, we integrate the tailed drift adaptation and OOD drift detection into a unified framework by extending the concept drift theory to multi-modal. Specifically, a T-distribution-based drift adapter is proposed to effectively mitigate the bias induced by the long-tailed problem, which also facilitates the model in distinguishing OOD data through explicit distribution modelling. Extensive experiments show significant improvements in our model's ability to adapt to tailed drift and OOD drift. Moreover, it enhances the efficiency and accuracy of image-text alignment in vision language model pre-training, particularly in the long-tail open world scenario. Furthermore, we create a set of multi-modal datasets called OpenMMlo, specifically tailored for the long-tailed open world scenario, to validate our findings. To foster the development of the multi-modal community, we have made both OpenMMlo datasets and our code publicly available at: https://github.com/Anonymous0Knight/ConceptDriftMLLMs.

We study the robustness of stochastic mirror descent (SMD) under heavy-tailed noise, focusing on whether the method retains its convergence guarantees when run with infinite-variance stochastic gradient input. To address this question in a principled manner, we begin by introducing a continuous-time model of SMD as a stochastic differential equation (SDE) driven by a centered Lévy noise process with finite p-th order moments, 1 < p leq 2. This scheme -- which we call the Lévy mirror flow (LMF) -- arises naturally as the scaling limit of SMD in the presence of heavy-tailed noise. In particular, when p < 2 -- the heavy noise regime -- the trajectories of LMF generically exhibit jump discontinuities of arbitrary magnitude which, if frequent enough, lead to infinite variance. Nonetheless, despite this highly singular behavior, we show that LMF attains ε-optimality within O(ε^{-p/(p-1)}) time in the convex case, and within tilde O(ε^{-1/(p-1)}) time for (relatively) strongly convex objectives. These guarantees provide a transparent characterization of the impact of frequent long jumps on the convergence of the process, and percolate to a series of matching discrete-time guarantees for several variants of SMD under heavy-tailed noise.

The realization that complex systems such as ecological communities can collapse or shift regimes suddenly and without rapid external forcing poses a serious challenge to our understanding and management of the natural world. The potential to identify early warning signals that would allow researchers and managers to predict such events before they happen has therefore been an invaluable discovery that offers a way forward in spite of such seemingly unpredictable behavior. Research into early warning signals has demonstrated that it is possible to define and detect such early warning signals in advance of a transition in certain contexts. Here we describe the pattern emerging as research continues to explore just how far we can generalize these results. A core of examples emerges that shares three properties: the phenomenon of rapid regime shifts, a pattern of 'critical slowing down' that can be used to detect the approaching shift, and a mechanism of bifurcation driving the sudden change. As research has expanded beyond these core examples, it is becoming clear that not all systems that show regime shifts exhibit critical slowing down, or vice versa. Even when systems exhibit critical slowing down, statistical detection is a challenge. We review the literature that explores these edge cases and highlight the need for (a) new early warning behaviors that can be used in cases where rapid shifts do not exhibit critical slowing down, (b) the development of methods to identify which behavior might be an appropriate signal when encountering a novel system; bearing in mind that a positive indication for some systems is a negative indication in others, and (c) statistical methods that can distinguish between signatures of early warning behaviors and noise.

Scene text detection has seen the emergence of high-performing methods that excel on academic benchmarks. However, these detectors often fail to replicate such success in real-world scenarios. We uncover two key factors contributing to this discrepancy through extensive experiments. First, a Fine-tuning Gap, where models leverage Dataset-Specific Optimization (DSO) paradigm for one domain at the cost of reduced effectiveness in others, leads to inflated performances on academic benchmarks. Second, the suboptimal performance in practical settings is primarily attributed to the long-tailed distribution of texts, where detectors struggle with rare and complex categories as artistic or overlapped text. Given that the DSO paradigm might undermine the generalization ability of models, we advocate for a Joint-Dataset Learning (JDL) protocol to alleviate the Fine-tuning Gap. Additionally, an error analysis is conducted to identify three major categories and 13 subcategories of challenges in long-tailed scene text, upon which we propose a Long-Tailed Benchmark (LTB). LTB facilitates a comprehensive evaluation of ability to handle a diverse range of long-tailed challenges. We further introduce MAEDet, a self-supervised learning-based method, as a strong baseline for LTB. The code is available at https://github.com/pd162/LTB.

The computational cost of training a vision-language model (VLM) can be reduced by sampling the training data. Previous work on efficient VLM pre-training has pointed to the importance of semantic data balance, adjusting the distribution of topics in the data to improve VLM accuracy. However, existing efficient pre-training approaches may disproportionately remove rare concepts from the training corpus. As a result, long-tail concepts remain insufficiently represented in the training data and are not effectively captured during training. In this work, we introduce a dynamic cluster-based sampling approach (DynamiCS) that downsamples large clusters of data and upsamples small ones. The approach is dynamic in that it applies sampling at each epoch. We first show the importance of dynamic sampling for VLM training. Then, we demonstrate the advantage of our cluster-scaling approach, which maintains the relative order of semantic clusters in the data and emphasizes the long-tail. This approach contrasts with current work, which focuses only on flattening the semantic distribution of the data. Our experiments show that DynamiCS reduces the computational cost of VLM training and provides a performance advantage for long-tail concepts.

Power-law distributions occur in many situations of scientific interest and have significant consequences for our understanding of natural and man-made phenomena. Unfortunately, the detection and characterization of power laws is complicated by the large fluctuations that occur in the tail of the distribution -- the part of the distribution representing large but rare events -- and by the difficulty of identifying the range over which power-law behavior holds. Commonly used methods for analyzing power-law data, such as least-squares fitting, can produce substantially inaccurate estimates of parameters for power-law distributions, and even in cases where such methods return accurate answers they are still unsatisfactory because they give no indication of whether the data obey a power law at all. Here we present a principled statistical framework for discerning and quantifying power-law behavior in empirical data. Our approach combines maximum-likelihood fitting methods with goodness-of-fit tests based on the Kolmogorov-Smirnov statistic and likelihood ratios. We evaluate the effectiveness of the approach with tests on synthetic data and give critical comparisons to previous approaches. We also apply the proposed methods to twenty-four real-world data sets from a range of different disciplines, each of which has been conjectured to follow a power-law distribution. In some cases we find these conjectures to be consistent with the data while in others the power law is ruled out.

Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly deployed in high-stakes domains, where rare but severe failures can result in irreversible harm. However, prevailing evaluation benchmarks often reduce complex social risk to mean-centered scalar scores, thereby obscuring distributional structure, cross-dimensional interactions, and worst-case behavior. This paper introduces Social Harm Analysis via Risk Profiles (SHARP), a framework for multidimensional, distribution-aware evaluation of social harm. SHARP models harm as a multivariate random variable and integrates explicit decomposition into bias, fairness, ethics, and epistemic reliability with a union-of-failures aggregation reparameterized as additive cumulative log-risk. The framework further employs risk-sensitive distributional statistics, with Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR95) as a primary metric, to characterize worst-case model behavior. Application of SHARP to eleven frontier LLMs, evaluated on a fixed corpus of n=901 socially sensitive prompts, reveals that models with similar average risk can exhibit more than twofold differences in tail exposure and volatility. Across models, dimension-wise marginal tail behavior varies systematically across harm dimensions, with bias exhibiting the strongest tail severities, epistemic and fairness risks occupying intermediate regimes, and ethical misalignment consistently lower; together, these patterns reveal heterogeneous, model-dependent failure structures that scalar benchmarks conflate. These findings indicate that responsible evaluation and governance of LLMs require moving beyond scalar averages toward multidimensional, tail-sensitive risk profiling.

Shannon, in his seminal paper introducing information theory, divided the communication into three levels: technical, semantic, and effectivenss. While the technical level is concerned with accurate reconstruction of transmitted symbols, the semantic and effectiveness levels deal with the inferred meaning and its effect on the receiver. Thanks to telecommunications, the first level problem has produced great advances like the internet. Large Language Models (LLMs) make some progress towards the second goal, but the third level still remains largely untouched. The third problem deals with predicting and optimizing communication for desired receiver behavior. LLMs, while showing wide generalization capabilities across a wide range of tasks, are unable to solve for this. One reason for the underperformance could be a lack of "behavior tokens" in LLMs' training corpora. Behavior tokens define receiver behavior over a communication, such as shares, likes, clicks, purchases, retweets, etc. While preprocessing data for LLM training, behavior tokens are often removed from the corpora as noise. Therefore, in this paper, we make some initial progress towards reintroducing behavior tokens in LLM training. The trained models, other than showing similar performance to LLMs on content understanding tasks, show generalization capabilities on behavior simulation, content simulation, behavior understanding, and behavior domain adaptation. Using a wide range of tasks on two corpora, we show results on all these capabilities. We call these models Large Content and Behavior Models (LCBMs). Further, to spur more research on LCBMs, we release our new Content Behavior Corpus (CBC), a repository containing communicator, message, and corresponding receiver behavior.

State-of-the-art results on image recognition tasks are achieved using over-parameterized learning algorithms that (nearly) perfectly fit the training set and are known to fit well even random labels. This tendency to memorize the labels of the training data is not explained by existing theoretical analyses. Memorization of the training data also presents significant privacy risks when the training data contains sensitive personal information and thus it is important to understand whether such memorization is necessary for accurate learning. We provide the first conceptual explanation and a theoretical model for this phenomenon. Specifically, we demonstrate that for natural data distributions memorization of labels is necessary for achieving close-to-optimal generalization error. Crucially, even labels of outliers and noisy labels need to be memorized. The model is motivated and supported by the results of several recent empirical works. In our model, data is sampled from a mixture of subpopulations and our results show that memorization is necessary whenever the distribution of subpopulation frequencies is long-tailed. Image and text data is known to be long-tailed and therefore our results establish a formal link between these empirical phenomena. Our results allow to quantify the cost of limiting memorization in learning and explain the disparate effects that privacy and model compression have on different subgroups.

Though significant advancements have been achieved in developing long-context large language models (LLMs), the compromised quality of LLM-synthesized data for supervised fine-tuning (SFT) often affects the long-context performance of SFT models and leads to inherent limitations. In principle, reinforcement learning (RL) with appropriate reward signals can further enhance models' capacities. However, how to obtain reliable rewards in long-context scenarios remains unexplored. To this end, we propose LongReward, a novel method that utilizes an off-the-shelf LLM to provide rewards for long-context model responses from four human-valued dimensions: helpfulness, logicality, faithfulness, and completeness, each with a carefully designed assessment pipeline. By combining LongReward and offline RL algorithm DPO, we are able to effectively improve long-context SFT models. Our experiments indicate that LongReward not only significantly improves models' long-context performance but also enhances their ability to follow short instructions. We also find that long-context DPO with LongReward and conventional short-context DPO can be used together without hurting either one's performance.

While Large Language Models (LLMs) hold promise to become autonomous agents, they often explore suboptimally in sequential decision-making. Recent work has sought to enhance this capability via supervised fine-tuning (SFT) or reinforcement learning (RL), improving regret on the classic multi-armed bandit task. However, it remains unclear how these learning methods shape exploration strategies and how well they generalize. We investigate both paradigms by training LLMs with SFT on expert trajectories and RL with a range of tailored reward signals including a strategic, regret-shaped reward to reduce variance, and an algorithmic reward that enables oracle imitation. The resulting agents outperform pre-trained models and achieve performance comparable to Upper Confidence Bound (UCB) and Thompson Sampling, with robust generalization to 6x longer horizons and across bandit families. Behavioral analysis reveals that gains often stem from more sophisticated but greedier exploitation: RL/SFT agents are more prone to early catastrophic failure than pre-trained models, prematurely abandoning exploration. Furthermore, agents trained to imitate UCB learn to outperform their teacher by adopting more exploitative variants. Our findings clarify when each training paradigm is preferable and advocate tailored reward design and evaluation beyond average regret to promote robust exploratory behavior.

Video generation is a critical pathway toward world models, with efficient long video inference as a key capability. Toward this end, we introduce LongCat-Video, a foundational video generation model with 13.6B parameters, delivering strong performance across multiple video generation tasks. It particularly excels in efficient and high-quality long video generation, representing our first step toward world models. Key features include: Unified architecture for multiple tasks: Built on the Diffusion Transformer (DiT) framework, LongCat-Video supports Text-to-Video, Image-to-Video, and Video-Continuation tasks with a single model; Long video generation: Pretraining on Video-Continuation tasks enables LongCat-Video to maintain high quality and temporal coherence in the generation of minutes-long videos; Efficient inference: LongCat-Video generates 720p, 30fps videos within minutes by employing a coarse-to-fine generation strategy along both the temporal and spatial axes. Block Sparse Attention further enhances efficiency, particularly at high resolutions; Strong performance with multi-reward RLHF: Multi-reward RLHF training enables LongCat-Video to achieve performance on par with the latest closed-source and leading open-source models. Code and model weights are publicly available to accelerate progress in the field.

The study of social emergence has long been a central focus in social science. Traditional modeling approaches, such as rule-based Agent-Based Models (ABMs), struggle to capture the diversity and complexity of human behavior, particularly the irrational factors emphasized in behavioral economics. Recently, large language model (LLM) agents have gained traction as simulation tools for modeling human behavior in social science and role-playing applications. Studies suggest that LLMs can account for cognitive biases, emotional fluctuations, and other non-rational influences, enabling more realistic simulations of socio-economic dynamics. In this work, we introduce TwinMarket, a novel multi-agent framework that leverages LLMs to simulate socio-economic systems. Specifically, we examine how individual behaviors, through interactions and feedback mechanisms, give rise to collective dynamics and emergent phenomena. Through experiments in a simulated stock market environment, we demonstrate how individual actions can trigger group behaviors, leading to emergent outcomes such as financial bubbles and recessions. Our approach provides valuable insights into the complex interplay between individual decision-making and collective socio-economic patterns.

Real-world data often exhibits long tail distributions with heavy class imbalance, where the majority classes can dominate the training process and alter the decision boundaries of the minority classes. Recently, researchers have investigated the potential of supervised contrastive learning for long-tailed recognition, and demonstrated that it provides a strong performance gain. In this paper, we show that while supervised contrastive learning can help improve performance, past baselines suffer from poor uniformity brought in by imbalanced data distribution. This poor uniformity manifests in samples from the minority class having poor separability in the feature space. To address this problem, we propose targeted supervised contrastive learning (TSC), which improves the uniformity of the feature distribution on the hypersphere. TSC first generates a set of targets uniformly distributed on a hypersphere. It then makes the features of different classes converge to these distinct and uniformly distributed targets during training. This forces all classes, including minority classes, to maintain a uniform distribution in the feature space, improves class boundaries, and provides better generalization even in the presence of long-tail data. Experiments on multiple datasets show that TSC achieves state-of-the-art performance on long-tailed recognition tasks.

The long-tailed distribution is a common phenomenon in the real world. Extracted large scale image datasets inevitably demonstrate the long-tailed property and models trained with imbalanced data can obtain high performance for the over-represented categories, but struggle for the under-represented categories, leading to biased predictions and performance degradation. To address this challenge, we propose a novel de-biasing method named Inverse Image Frequency (IIF). IIF is a multiplicative margin adjustment transformation of the logits in the classification layer of a convolutional neural network. Our method achieves stronger performance than similar works and it is especially useful for downstream tasks such as long-tailed instance segmentation as it produces fewer false positive detections. Our extensive experiments show that IIF surpasses the state of the art on many long-tailed benchmarks such as ImageNet-LT, CIFAR-LT, Places-LT and LVIS, reaching 55.8% top-1 accuracy with ResNet50 on ImageNet-LT and 26.2% segmentation AP with MaskRCNN on LVIS. Code available at https://github.com/kostas1515/iif

As LLM agents become capable of increasingly long-horizon tasks, evaluating their performance in economic systems is becoming increasingly important. Unlike existing benchmarks that primarily evaluate a single agent interacting with a passive environment, economic systems are inherently multi-agent, requiring autonomous agents to communicate, negotiate, and transact while pursuing their own objectives over extended periods. We introduce CoffeeBench, a benchmark for evaluating LLM agents in a long-horizon multi-agent economy composed of heterogeneous firms. In CoffeeBench, two farmers, two roasters, and two retailers autonomously operate their businesses over a 90-day simulation, each seeking to maximize cumulative net income through communication and transactions while managing cash, inventory, and pricing. The evaluated model controls one coffee roaster, while the remaining firms are controlled by fixed reference agents. Across several recent open-weight and proprietary LLMs, all models outperform a passive baseline that takes no actions, with most achieving positive net income. Analysis of agent behavior reveals substantial differences in long-horizon economic interaction: higher-performing models communicate more actively with other firms, whereas Claude~Haiku~4.5 exhibits an idle-drift failure mode, repeatedly choosing inaction despite producing coherent assessments and plans. We release our code and agent trajectories to support future research.

An effective online recommendation system should jointly capture users' long-term and short-term preferences in both users' internal behaviors (from the target recommendation task) and external behaviors (from other tasks). However, it is extremely challenging to conduct fast adaptations to real-time new trends while making full use of all historical behaviors in large-scale systems, due to the real-world limitations in real-time training efficiency and external behavior acquisition. To address these practical challenges, we propose a novel Long Short-Term Temporal Meta-learning framework (LSTTM) for online recommendation. It arranges user multi-source behaviors in a global long-term graph and an internal short-term graph, and conducts different GAT-based aggregators and training strategies to learn user short-term and long-term preferences separately. To timely capture users' real-time interests, we propose a temporal meta-learning method based on MAML under an asynchronous optimization strategy for fast adaptation, which regards recommendations at different time periods as different tasks. In experiments, LSTTM achieves significant improvements on both offline and online evaluations. It has been deployed on a widely-used online recommendation system named WeChat Top Stories, affecting millions of users.

In long-horizon tasks, decision-relevant state is often scattered across an expanding trajectory, while the action agent must surface it and act. As trajectories grow, task requirements, environment facts, prior attempts, diagnoses, and open subgoals can be buried in the context window or pushed beyond it, failing to influence decisions when needed. We call this failure mode "behavioral state decay". We study memory as an active intervention mechanism rather than passive retrieval. A separate memory agent runs alongside an unmodified action agent, updating a structured memory bank from the recent trajectory and deciding whether to inject a memory-grounded reminder or remain silent. The module is plug-and-play with frontier action agents and existing agent harnesses. Across Terminal-Bench 2.0 and τ^2-Bench, it improves pass@1 for both weaker and stronger action agents, with gains of +8.3 pp on Terminal-Bench and +6.8 pp on τ^2-Bench. Ablations show that selective intervention outperforms passive bank exposure, always-on injection, advisor-only guidance, and general retrieval. As an early step toward open-weight memory policies, we train Qwen3.5-27B on SETA using SFT and GRPO, improving validation reward and achieving partial transfer to Terminal-Bench.

Deep neural networks have made huge progress in the last few decades. However, as the real-world data often exhibits a long-tailed distribution, vanilla deep models tend to be heavily biased toward the majority classes. To address this problem, state-of-the-art methods usually adopt a mixture of experts (MoE) to focus on different parts of the long-tailed distribution. Experts in these methods are with the same model depth, which neglects the fact that different classes may have different preferences to be fit by models with different depths. To this end, we propose a novel MoE-based method called Self-Heterogeneous Integration with Knowledge Excavation (SHIKE). We first propose Depth-wise Knowledge Fusion (DKF) to fuse features between different shallow parts and the deep part in one network for each expert, which makes experts more diverse in terms of representation. Based on DKF, we further propose Dynamic Knowledge Transfer (DKT) to reduce the influence of the hardest negative class that has a non-negligible impact on the tail classes in our MoE framework. As a result, the classification accuracy of long-tailed data can be significantly improved, especially for the tail classes. SHIKE achieves the state-of-the-art performance of 56.3%, 60.3%, 75.4%, and 41.9% on CIFAR100-LT (IF100), ImageNet-LT, iNaturalist 2018, and Places-LT, respectively.

This paper investigates the problem of generalized linear bandits with heavy-tailed rewards, whose (1+epsilon)-th moment is bounded for some epsilonin (0,1]. Although there exist methods for generalized linear bandits, most of them focus on bounded or sub-Gaussian rewards and are not well-suited for many real-world scenarios, such as financial markets and web-advertising. To address this issue, we propose two novel algorithms based on truncation and mean of medians. These algorithms achieve an almost optimal regret bound of O(dT^{1{1+epsilon}}), where d is the dimension of contextual information and T is the time horizon. Our truncation-based algorithm supports online learning, distinguishing it from existing truncation-based approaches. Additionally, our mean-of-medians-based algorithm requires only O(log T) rewards and one estimator per epoch, making it more practical. Moreover, our algorithms improve the regret bounds by a logarithmic factor compared to existing algorithms when epsilon=1. Numerical experimental results confirm the merits of our algorithms.

Forecasting multiple future events within a given time horizon is essential for applications in finance, retail, social networks, and healthcare. Marked Temporal Point Processes (MTPP) provide a principled framework to model both the timing and labels of events. However, most existing research focuses on predicting only the next event, leaving long-horizon forecasting largely underexplored. To address this gap, we introduce HoTPP, the first benchmark specifically designed to rigorously evaluate long-horizon predictions. We identify shortcomings in widely used evaluation metrics, propose a theoretically grounded T-mAP metric, present strong statistical baselines, and offer efficient implementations of popular models. Our empirical results demonstrate that modern MTPP approaches often underperform simple statistical baselines. Furthermore, we analyze the diversity of predicted sequences and find that most methods exhibit mode collapse. Finally, we analyze the impact of autoregression and intensity-based losses on prediction quality, and outline promising directions for future research. The HoTPP source code, hyperparameters, and full evaluation results are available at GitHub.

Large Reasoning Models (LRMs) introduce new opportunities for safety monitoring through their Chain of Thought (CoT) reasoning. However, CoT is not always faithful to the model's final output, undermining its reliability as a monitoring tool. To address this, we investigate the hidden representations of LRMs to determine whether future behavior can be predicted from prompt and CoT representations. By evaluating a probe at each generated token, we construct a probe trajectory, the continuous evolution of a concept's probability across the reasoning process. We find that future model behavior is more distinguishable when examined over the full trajectory than from a single static prediction. To characterize these temporal dynamics, we extract signal-processing features that capture volatility, trend, and steady-state behavior, significantly improving the separation of future model states. We also present two methodological insights. First, template-based training data achieves near-parity with dynamically generated model responses, eliminating the need for a costly initial inference and labeling. Second, the choice of pooling operation is critical: average-pooling and last-token methods collapse to near-random performance, while max-pooling achieves up to 95% AUROC and yields stable probe trajectories. Using four datasets and four reasoning models across the domains of safety and mathematics, we demonstrate that trajectory features encode task-specific dynamics that improve outcome separability. These findings establish probe trajectories as a complementary framework for monitoring LRM behavior. Warning: This article contains potentially harmful content.

Classification on long-tailed distributed data is a challenging problem, which suffers from serious class-imbalance and accordingly unpromising performance especially on tail classes. Recently, the ensembling based methods achieve the state-of-the-art performance and show great potential. However, there are two limitations for current methods. First, their predictions are not trustworthy for failure-sensitive applications. This is especially harmful for the tail classes where the wrong predictions is basically frequent. Second, they assign unified numbers of experts to all samples, which is redundant for easy samples with excessive computational cost. To address these issues, we propose a Trustworthy Long-tailed Classification (TLC) method to jointly conduct classification and uncertainty estimation to identify hard samples in a multi-expert framework. Our TLC obtains the evidence-based uncertainty (EvU) and evidence for each expert, and then combines these uncertainties and evidences under the Dempster-Shafer Evidence Theory (DST). Moreover, we propose a dynamic expert engagement to reduce the number of engaged experts for easy samples and achieve efficiency while maintaining promising performances. Finally, we conduct comprehensive experiments on the tasks of classification, tail detection, OOD detection and failure prediction. The experimental results show that the proposed TLC outperforms existing methods and is trustworthy with reliable uncertainty.

Extending the forecasting time is a critical demand for real applications, such as extreme weather early warning and long-term energy consumption planning. This paper studies the long-term forecasting problem of time series. Prior Transformer-based models adopt various self-attention mechanisms to discover the long-range dependencies. However, intricate temporal patterns of the long-term future prohibit the model from finding reliable dependencies. Also, Transformers have to adopt the sparse versions of point-wise self-attentions for long series efficiency, resulting in the information utilization bottleneck. Going beyond Transformers, we design Autoformer as a novel decomposition architecture with an Auto-Correlation mechanism. We break with the pre-processing convention of series decomposition and renovate it as a basic inner block of deep models. This design empowers Autoformer with progressive decomposition capacities for complex time series. Further, inspired by the stochastic process theory, we design the Auto-Correlation mechanism based on the series periodicity, which conducts the dependencies discovery and representation aggregation at the sub-series level. Auto-Correlation outperforms self-attention in both efficiency and accuracy. In long-term forecasting, Autoformer yields state-of-the-art accuracy, with a 38% relative improvement on six benchmarks, covering five practical applications: energy, traffic, economics, weather and disease. Code is available at this repository: https://github.com/thuml/Autoformer.

Although contrastive learning methods have shown prevailing performance on a variety of representation learning tasks, they encounter difficulty when the training dataset is long-tailed. Many researchers have combined contrastive learning and a logit adjustment technique to address this problem, but the combinations are done ad-hoc and a theoretical background has not yet been provided. The goal of this paper is to provide the background and further improve the performance. First, we show that the fundamental reason contrastive learning methods struggle with long-tailed tasks is that they try to maximize the mutual information maximization between latent features and input data. As ground-truth labels are not considered in the maximization, they are not able to address imbalances between class labels. Rather, we interpret the long-tailed recognition task as a mutual information maximization between latent features and ground-truth labels. This approach integrates contrastive learning and logit adjustment seamlessly to derive a loss function that shows state-of-the-art performance on long-tailed recognition benchmarks. It also demonstrates its efficacy in image segmentation tasks, verifying its versatility beyond image classification.

Large reasoning models enhanced by reinforcement learning with verifiable rewards have achieved significant performance gains by extending their chain-of-thought. However, this paradigm incurs substantial deployment costs as models often exhibit excessive verbosity on simple queries. Existing efficient reasoning methods relying on explicit length penalties often introduce optimization conflicts and leave the generative mechanisms driving overthinking largely unexamined. In this paper, we identify a phenomenon termed length shift where models increasingly generate unnecessary reasoning on trivial inputs during training. To address this, we introduce Dynamic Outlier Truncation (DOT), a training-time intervention that selectively suppresses redundant tokens. This method targets only the extreme tail of response lengths within fully correct rollout groups while preserving long-horizon reasoning capabilities for complex problems. To complement this intervention and ensure stable convergence, we further incorporate auxiliary KL regularization and predictive dynamic sampling. Experimental results across multiple model scales demonstrate that our approach significantly pushes the efficiency-performance Pareto frontier outward. Notably, on the AIME-24, our method reduces inference token usage by 78% while simultaneously increasing accuracy compared to the initial policy and surpassing state-of-the-art efficient reasoning methods.

Long-horizon reinforcement learning (RL) for large language models faces critical scalability challenges from unbounded context growth, leading to context folding methods that compress interaction history during task execution. However, existing approaches treat summary actions as standard actions, overlooking that summaries fundamentally modify the agent's future observation space, creating a policy-dependent, non-stationary observation distribution that violates core RL assumptions. This introduces three fundamental challenges: (1) gradient dilution where summary tokens receive insufficient training signal, (2) self-conditioning where policy updates change summary distributions, creating a vicious cycle of training collapse, and (3) computational cost from processing unique contexts at each turn. We introduce FoldActhttps://github.com/SHAO-Jiaqi757/FoldAct, a framework that explicitly addresses these challenges through three key innovations: separated loss computation for independent gradient signals on summary and action tokens, full context consistency loss to reduce distribution shift, and selective segment training to reduce computational cost. Our method enables stable training of long-horizon search agents with context folding, addressing the non-stationary observation problem while improving training efficiency with 5.19times speedup.

Long-term behavioral monitoring of individual animals is crucial for studying behavioral changes that occur over different time scales, especially for conservation and evolutionary biology. Computer vision methods have proven to benefit biodiversity monitoring, but automated behavior monitoring in wild populations remains challenging. This stems from the lack of datasets that cover a range of computer vision tasks necessary to extract biologically meaningful measurements of individual animals. Here, we introduce such a dataset (CHIRP) with a new method (CORVID) for individual re-identification of wild birds. The CHIRP (Combining beHaviour, Individual Re-identification and Postures) dataset is curated from a long-term population of wild Siberian jays studied in Swedish Lapland, supporting re-identification (re-id), action recognition, 2D keypoint estimation, object detection, and instance segmentation. In addition to traditional task-specific benchmarking, we introduce application-specific benchmarking with biologically relevant metrics (feeding rates, co-occurrence rates) to evaluate the performance of models in real-world use cases. Finally, we present CORVID (COlouR-based Video re-ID), a novel pipeline for individual identification of birds based on the segmentation and classification of colored leg rings, a widespread approach for visual identification of individual birds. CORVID offers a probability-based id tracking method by matching the detected combination of color rings with a database. We use application-specific benchmarking to show that CORVID outperforms state-of-the-art re-id methods. We hope this work offers the community a blueprint for curating real-world datasets from ethically approved biological studies to bridge the gap between computer vision research and biological applications.

Large Language Models (LLMs) are transforming society and permeating into diverse applications. As a result, LLMs will frequently interact with us and other agents. It is, therefore, of great societal value to understand how LLMs behave in interactive social settings. Here, we propose to use behavioral game theory to study LLM's cooperation and coordination behavior. To do so, we let different LLMs (GPT-3, GPT-3.5, and GPT-4) play finitely repeated games with each other and with other, human-like strategies. Our results show that LLMs generally perform well in such tasks and also uncover persistent behavioral signatures. In a large set of two players-two strategies games, we find that LLMs are particularly good at games where valuing their own self-interest pays off, like the iterated Prisoner's Dilemma family. However, they behave sub-optimally in games that require coordination. We, therefore, further focus on two games from these distinct families. In the canonical iterated Prisoner's Dilemma, we find that GPT-4 acts particularly unforgivingly, always defecting after another agent has defected only once. In the Battle of the Sexes, we find that GPT-4 cannot match the behavior of the simple convention to alternate between options. We verify that these behavioral signatures are stable across robustness checks. Finally, we show how GPT-4's behavior can be modified by providing further information about the other player as well as by asking it to predict the other player's actions before making a choice. These results enrich our understanding of LLM's social behavior and pave the way for a behavioral game theory for machines.

Long-tailed recognition has benefited from foundation models and fine-tuning paradigms, yet existing studies and benchmarks are mainly confined to natural image domains, where pre-training and fine-tuning data share similar distributions. In contrast, scientific images exhibit distinct visual characteristics and supervision signals, raising questions about the effectiveness of fine-tuning foundation models in such settings. In this work, we investigate scientific long-tailed recognition under a purely visual and parameter-efficient fine-tuning (PEFT) paradigm. Experiments on three scientific benchmarks show that fine-tuning foundation models yields limited gains, and reveal that penultimate-layer features play an important role, particularly for tail classes. Motivated by these findings, we propose SciLT, a framework that exploits multi-level representations through adaptive feature fusion and dual-supervision learning. By jointly leveraging penultimate- and final-layer features, SciLT achieves balanced performance across head and tail classes. Extensive experiments demonstrate that SciLT consistently outperforms existing methods, establishing a strong and practical baseline for scientific long-tailed recognition and providing valuable guidance for adapting foundation models to scientific data with substantial domain shifts.

With the rapid increase of large-scale, real-world datasets, it becomes critical to address the problem of long-tailed data distribution (i.e., a few classes account for most of the data, while most classes are under-represented). Existing solutions typically adopt class re-balancing strategies such as re-sampling and re-weighting based on the number of observations for each class. In this work, we argue that as the number of samples increases, the additional benefit of a newly added data point will diminish. We introduce a novel theoretical framework to measure data overlap by associating with each sample a small neighboring region rather than a single point. The effective number of samples is defined as the volume of samples and can be calculated by a simple formula (1-β^{n})/(1-β), where n is the number of samples and βin [0,1) is a hyperparameter. We design a re-weighting scheme that uses the effective number of samples for each class to re-balance the loss, thereby yielding a class-balanced loss. Comprehensive experiments are conducted on artificially induced long-tailed CIFAR datasets and large-scale datasets including ImageNet and iNaturalist. Our results show that when trained with the proposed class-balanced loss, the network is able to achieve significant performance gains on long-tailed datasets.

We study behavioral alignment and representation dynamics of large language model (LLM) agents in financial decision environments. TradeArena, an auditable trading-agent testbed with risk reports, execution simulation, memory, and replayable trajectories, lets us analyze how rationales, positions, and interventions evolve under market stress. Code and data artifacts are available through the https://github.com/weich97/TradeArena.git{TradeArena repository}. We find pre-failure signatures: planning embeddings drift from normal centroids, fused plan-risk representations separate normal from pre-drawdown states, and local manifolds exhibit effective-rank contraction. Across 80 rolling failure anchors and eight LLM trajectories, this pattern persists across hash, LSA, Transformer, and white-box hidden-state probes. Stress tests with CoT-free target weights, lexical controls, OHLCV noise, and false audits show that rationale-level contraction can vanish without rationales, while intent-space and fused signatures remain informative. Structured risk feedback can act as an external alignment signal without fine-tuning, but not as a universal performance enhancer: true audit feedback improves calibration for some models, returns for others, and exposes cases where placebo or hidden feedback has higher short-horizon return but weaker alignment diagnostics. A 51-stock intraday experiment reveals a correlation blind spot: LLM rationales justify exposure to coupled assets that the risk layer clips. Finally, a financial-audit task suite shifts comparison from ``which model trades best'' to whether models can audit trajectories, respect execution boundaries, reproduce artifacts, and avoid claim overreach. These results support a research claim, not a profitability claim: auditable risk feedback and representation trajectories reveal when LLM financial reasoning is aligning, drifting, or failing.

Heavy-tail phenomena in stochastic gradient descent (SGD) have been reported in several empirical studies. Experimental evidence in previous works suggests a strong interplay between the heaviness of the tails and generalization behavior of SGD. To address this empirical phenomena theoretically, several works have made strong topological and statistical assumptions to link the generalization error to heavy tails. Very recently, new generalization bounds have been proven, indicating a non-monotonic relationship between the generalization error and heavy tails, which is more pertinent to the reported empirical observations. While these bounds do not require additional topological assumptions given that SGD can be modeled using a heavy-tailed stochastic differential equation (SDE), they can only apply to simple quadratic problems. In this paper, we build on this line of research and develop generalization bounds for a more general class of objective functions, which includes non-convex functions as well. Our approach is based on developing Wasserstein stability bounds for heavy-tailed SDEs and their discretizations, which we then convert to generalization bounds. Our results do not require any nontrivial assumptions; yet, they shed more light to the empirical observations, thanks to the generality of the loss functions.

Test-time scaling has become a powerful way to improve large language models. However, existing methods are best suited to short, bounded outputs that can be directly compared, ranked or refined. Long-horizon coding agents violate this premise: each attempt produces an extended trajectory of actions, observations, errors, and partial progress taken by the agent. In this setting, the main challenge is no longer generating more attempts, but representing prior experience in a form that can be effectively selected from and reused. We propose a test-time scaling framework for agentic coding based on compact representations of rollout trajectories. Our framework converts each rollout into a structured summary that preserves its salient hypotheses, progress, and failure modes while discarding low-signal trace details. This representation enables two complementary forms of inference-time scaling. For parallel scaling, we introduce Recursive Tournament Voting (RTV), which recursively narrows a population of rollout summaries through small-group comparisons. For sequential scaling, we adapt Parallel-Distill-Refine (PDR) to the agentic setting by conditioning new rollouts on summaries distilled from prior attempts. Our method consistently improves the performance of frontier coding agents across SWE-Bench Verified and Terminal-Bench v2.0. For example, by using our method Claude-4.5-Opus improves from 70.9% to 77.6% on SWE-Bench Verified (mini-SWE-agent) and 46.9% to 59.1% on Terminal-Bench v2.0 (Terminus 1). Our results suggest that test-time scaling for long-horizon agents is fundamentally a problem of representation, selection, and reuse.

As large language models become increasingly widespread, third-party providers that deploy open-weight models have become an important part of the ecosystem. Auditing the quality of their inference APIs is therefore an open problem. We formalize hosted model routing as a stochastic process and propose \textbf{Ventor-QTest}, a composite black-box audit that requires no probability information from the target API. Its repeated-request component sends each frozen constrained context to the target multiple times, reconstructs a categorical output distribution from the returned text counts, and reports average fidelity loss (AFL) as a null-bias-corrected, within-window mean coarsened-KL statistic. Its long-sequence component uses independent runs to report extreme fidelity loss (EFL) through the empirical upper tail of a run-level reference-centered-surprisal statistic. Across three logprob-capable route conditions, AFL shows strong linear descriptive agreement with a logprob-derived coarsened-KL comparator. Across seven route snapshots, 20-run sequence probes reveal route-specific EFL variation. AFL and EFL have little detectable route-level association with GPQA-Diamond accuracy. In contrast, pronounced EFL coincides with a decline in Terminal-Bench pass rate as task exposure increases. This pattern may arise because correctness in long-horizon tasks is more sensitive to extreme fidelity loss. These results motivate reporting AFL and EFL jointly, particularly when auditing long-horizon agentic tasks. The open-source implementation is available at https://github.com/Tencent/AI-Infra-Guard/tree/main/services/api_checker/ventor_qtest.

Federated Long-Tailed Learning (Fed-LT), a paradigm wherein data collected from decentralized local clients manifests a globally prevalent long-tailed distribution, has garnered considerable attention in recent times. In the context of Fed-LT, existing works have predominantly centered on addressing the data imbalance issue to enhance the efficacy of the generic global model while neglecting the performance at the local level. In contrast, conventional Personalized Federated Learning (pFL) techniques are primarily devised to optimize personalized local models under the presumption of a balanced global data distribution. This paper introduces an approach termed Federated Local and Generic Model Training in Fed-LT (FedLoGe), which enhances both local and generic model performance through the integration of representation learning and classifier alignment within a neural collapse framework. Our investigation reveals the feasibility of employing a shared backbone as a foundational framework for capturing overarching global trends, while concurrently employing individualized classifiers to encapsulate distinct refinements stemming from each client's local features. Building upon this discovery, we establish the Static Sparse Equiangular Tight Frame Classifier (SSE-C), inspired by neural collapse principles that naturally prune extraneous noisy features and foster the acquisition of potent data representations. Furthermore, leveraging insights from imbalance neural collapse's classifier norm patterns, we develop Global and Local Adaptive Feature Realignment (GLA-FR) via an auxiliary global classifier and personalized Euclidean norm transfer to align global features with client preferences. Extensive experimental results on CIFAR-10/100-LT, ImageNet, and iNaturalist demonstrate the advantage of our method over state-of-the-art pFL and Fed-LT approaches.

Rich user behavior data has been proven to be of great value for Click-Through Rate (CTR) prediction applications, especially in industrial recommender, search, or advertising systems. However, it's non-trivial for real-world systems to make full use of long-term user behaviors due to the strict requirements of online serving time. Most previous works adopt the retrieval-based strategy, where a small number of user behaviors are retrieved first for subsequent attention. However, the retrieval-based methods are sub-optimal and would cause more or less information losses, and it's difficult to balance the effectiveness and efficiency of the retrieval algorithm. In this paper, we propose SDIM (Sampling-based Deep Interest Modeling), a simple yet effective sampling-based end-to-end approach for modeling long-term user behaviors. We sample from multiple hash functions to generate hash signatures of the candidate item and each item in the user behavior sequence, and obtain the user interest by directly gathering behavior items associated with the candidate item with the same hash signature. We show theoretically and experimentally that the proposed method performs on par with standard attention-based models on modeling long-term user behaviors, while being sizable times faster. We also introduce the deployment of SDIM in our system. Specifically, we decouple the behavior sequence hashing, which is the most time-consuming part, from the CTR model by designing a separate module named BSE (behavior Sequence Encoding). BSE is latency-free for the CTR server, enabling us to model extremely long user behaviors. Both offline and online experiments are conducted to demonstrate the effectiveness of SDIM. SDIM now has been deployed online in the search system of Meituan APP.

Most recommendation benchmarks evaluate how well a model imitates user behavior. In financial advisory, however, observed actions can be noisy or short-sighted under market volatility and may conflict with a user's long-term goals. Treating what users chose as the sole ground truth, therefore, conflates behavioral imitation with decision quality. We introduce Conv-FinRe, a conversational and longitudinal benchmark for stock recommendation that evaluates LLMs beyond behavior matching. Given an onboarding interview, step-wise market context, and advisory dialogues, models must generate rankings over a fixed investment horizon. Crucially, Conv-FinRe provides multi-view references that distinguish descriptive behavior from normative utility grounded in investor-specific risk preferences, enabling diagnosis of whether an LLM follows rational analysis, mimics user noise, or is driven by market momentum. We build the benchmark from real market data and human decision trajectories, instantiate controlled advisory conversations, and evaluate a suite of state-of-the-art LLMs. Results reveal a persistent tension between rational decision quality and behavioral alignment: models that perform well on utility-based ranking often fail to match user choices, whereas behaviorally aligned models can overfit short-term noise. The dataset is publicly released on Hugging Face, and the codebase is available on GitHub.

Autoregressive (AR) video diffusion enables variable-length synthesis, but long-horizon generation often suffers from accumulated errors and identity drift. For efficiency, existing methods commonly adopt sliding-window attention during generation. This creates an irreversible generation trajectory: once the active window accumulates appearance errors, subsequent generations can only condition on this degraded trajectory and drift further away. We address this limitation by formulating long video generation as a retrieval-augmented generation (RAG) problem. Rather than relying solely on the recent window, we treat previously generated latents as a dynamic, searchable history. We propose LongLive-RAG, a general retrieval framework for AR video generation. At each new block, LongLive-RAG uses a query embedding to retrieve relevant historical latents. This lightweight retrieval step adds only a small overhead relative to generation and lets the generator condition on non-local context instead of only the recent window. To make retrieval more discriminative, we introduce the Window Temporal Delta Loss that suppresses redundant local similarity and encourages embeddings to capture meaningful temporal changes. Together, these components help reduce error accumulation caused by sliding-window attention. Experiments across multiple AR backbones and generation lengths show improved long-video quality and the best average VBench-Long rank. To our knowledge, among open-ended AR long video generation methods, LongLive-RAG is the first to formulate self-generated latent history as content-addressable retrieval memory. Code is available at https://github.com/qixinhu11/LongLive-RAG.

Truly proactive AI systems must anticipate what we will do next. This foresight demands far richer information than the sparse signals we type into our prompts -- it demands reasoning over the entire context of what we see and do. We formalize this as next action prediction (NAP): given a sequence of a user's multimodal interactions with a computer (screenshots, clicks, sensor data), predict that user's next action. Progress on this task requires both new data and modeling approaches. To scale data, we annotate longitudinal, naturalistic computer use with vision-language models. We release an open-source pipeline for performing this labeling on private infrastructure, and label over 360K actions across one month of continuous phone usage from 20 users, amounting to 1,800 hours of screen time. We then introduce LongNAP, a user model that combines parametric and in-context learning to reason over long interaction histories. LongNAP is trained via policy gradient methods to generate user-specific reasoning traces given some context; retrieve relevant traces from a library of past traces; and then apply retrieved traces in-context to predict future actions. Using an LLM-as-judge evaluation metric (0-1 similarity to ground truth), LongNAP significantly outperforms supervised finetuning and prompted baselines on held-out data (by 79% and 39% respectively). Additionally, LongNAP generalizes to held out users when trained across individuals. The space of next actions a user might take at any moment is unbounded, spanning thousands of possible outcomes. Despite this, 17.1% of LongNAP's predicted trajectories are well-aligned with what a user does next (LLM-judge score geq 0.5). This rises to 26% when we filter to highly confident predictions. In sum, we argue that learning from the full context of user behavior to anticipate user needs is now a viable task with substantial opportunity.

In this work, we aim to reconcile several apparently contradictory observations in market microstructure: is the famous "square-root law" of metaorder impact, which decays with time, compatible with the random-walk nature of prices and the linear impact of order imbalances? Can one entirely explain the volatility of prices as resulting from the flow of uninformed metaorders that mechanically impact them? We introduce a new theoretical framework to describe metaorders with different signs, sizes and durations, which all impact prices as a square-root of volume but with a subsequent time decay. We show that, as in the original propagator model, price diffusion is ensured by the long memory of cross-correlations between metaorders. In order to account for the effect of strongly fluctuating volumes q of individual trades, we further introduce two q-dependent exponents, which allow us to describe how the moments of generalized volume imbalance and the correlation between price changes and generalized order flow imbalance scale with T. We predict in particular that the corresponding power-laws depend in a non-monotonic fashion on a parameter a, which allows one to put the same weight on all child orders or to overweight large ones, a behaviour that is clearly borne out by empirical data. We also predict that the correlation between price changes and volume imbalances should display a maximum as a function of a, which again matches observations. Such noteworthy agreement between theory and data suggests that our framework correctly captures the basic mechanism at the heart of price formation, namely the average impact of metaorders. We argue that our results support the "Order-Driven" theory of excess volatility, and are at odds with the idea that a "Fundamental" component accounts for a large share of the volatility of financial markets.

A comprehensive understanding of animal behavior ecology depends on scalable approaches to quantify and interpret complex, multidimensional behavioral patterns. Traditional field observations are often limited in scope, time-consuming, and labor-intensive, hindering the assessment of behavioral responses across landscapes. To address this, we present kabr-tools (Kenyan Animal Behavior Recognition Tools), an open-source package for automated multi-species behavioral monitoring. This framework integrates drone-based video with machine learning systems to extract behavioral, social, and spatial metrics from wildlife footage. Our pipeline leverages object detection, tracking, and behavioral classification systems to generate key metrics, including time budgets, behavioral transitions, social interactions, habitat associations, and group composition dynamics. Compared to ground-based methods, drone-based observations significantly improved behavioral granularity, reducing visibility loss by 15% and capturing more transitions with higher accuracy and continuity. We validate kabr-tools through three case studies, analyzing 969 behavioral sequences, surpassing the capacity of traditional methods for data capture and annotation. We found that, like Plains zebras, vigilance in Grevy's zebras decreases with herd size, but, unlike Plains zebras, habitat has a negligible impact. Plains and Grevy's zebras exhibit strong behavioral inertia, with rare transitions to alert behaviors and observed spatial segregation between Grevy's zebras, Plains zebras, and giraffes in mixed-species herds. By enabling automated behavioral monitoring at scale, kabr-tools offers a powerful tool for ecosystem-wide studies, advancing conservation, biodiversity research, and ecological monitoring.

Planning safe robot motions in the presence of humans requires reliable forecasts of future human motion. However, simply predicting the most likely motion from prior interactions does not guarantee safety. Such forecasts fail to model the long tail of possible events, which are rarely observed in limited datasets. On the other hand, planning for worst-case motions leads to overtly conservative behavior and a "frozen robot". Instead, we aim to learn forecasts that predict counterfactuals that humans guard against. We propose a novel game-theoretic framework for joint planning and forecasting with the payoff being the performance of the planner against the demonstrator, and present practical algorithms to train models in an end-to-end fashion. We demonstrate that our proposed algorithm results in safer plans in a crowd navigation simulator and real-world datasets of pedestrian motion. We release our code at https://github.com/portal-cornell/Game-Theoretic-Forecasting-Planning.

The Forward-Forward (FF) algorithm trains networks layer-by-layer using a local "goodness function," yet sum-of-squares (SoS) has remained the only choice studied. We systematically explore the goodness-function design space and identify a unifying principle: the goodness function must be sensitive to the shape of neural activity, not its total energy. This principle is motivated by the observation that deep network activations follow heavy-tailed distributions and that discriminative information is often concentrated in peak activities. We propose two complementary families: selective functions (top-k, entmax-weighted energy) that measure only peak activity, and shape-sensitive functions (excess kurtosis / "burstiness" and higher-order moments) that reward heavy-tailed distributions via scale-invariant statistics. Combined with separate label-feature forwarding (FFCL), controlled experiments across 13 goodness functions, 5 activations, 6 datasets, and three continuous sweeps, each tracing a characteristic inverted-U, yield 89.0% on Fashion-MNIST and 98.2+-0.1% on MNIST (4x2000), a +32.6pp gain over SoS, with consistent improvements across all benchmarks (+72pp USPS, +52pp SVHN). The scale-invariant nature of burstiness makes it particularly robust to magnitude shifts across layers and datasets.

In nonstationary bandit learning problems, the decision-maker must continually gather information and adapt their action selection as the latent state of the environment evolves. In each time period, some latent optimal action maximizes expected reward under the environment state. We view the optimal action sequence as a stochastic process, and take an information-theoretic approach to analyze attainable performance. We bound limiting per-period regret in terms of the entropy rate of the optimal action process. The bound applies to a wide array of problems studied in the literature and reflects the problem's information structure through its information-ratio.

Large language model agents are increasingly evaluated as autonomous tool users, yet most benchmarks focus on bounded tasks with immediate success criteria. Real-world deployments often require Long-Term Coherence, the capacity to preserve purposeful behavior across extended horizons while adapting decisions to accumulated evidence. Evaluating this capacity requires a persistent environment in which actions constrain future choices, feedback arrives at heterogeneous delays, and incoherent behavior produces measurable cumulative effects. Seller-side e-commerce provides a suitable setting for this evaluation through recurrent and interdependent decisions over Product Sourcing, Listing and Pricing Control, Cash-Flow Management, and Mixed-Latency Feedback Adaptation. We introduce MerchantBench, a 365-day order-level simulation grounded in 98,843 real e-commerce product records and equipped with 26 tools for agent interaction. MerchantBench couples promptly observable Upstream Supplier Events with delayed Downstream Order Outcomes, requiring agents to follow individual order lifecycles and revisit earlier decisions. We evaluate eight LLMs under two agent frameworks in 48 runs, each spanning 365 simulated days. Our results reveal a substantial gap between even the latest LLMs and human participants, with the best LLM configuration attaining only 27.3\% of the mean final net assets achieved by human participants.

Long-horizon LM agents learn from multi-turn interaction, where a single early mistake can alter the subsequent state distribution and derail the whole trajectory. Existing recipes fall short in complementary ways: supervised fine-tuning provides dense teacher supervision but suffers from covariate shift because it is trained on off-policy teacher trajectories; while reinforcement learning with verifiable rewards avoids this off-policy mismatch by learning from on-policy rollouts but with only sparse outcome feedback. We address this dilemma by revisiting Dataset Aggregation (DAgger) for multi-turn LM agents: the algorithm collects trajectories through a turn-level interpolation of student and teacher policies, and the student is then trained on these trajectories using supervised labels provided by the teacher. By directly interacting with environments, we expose the model to realistic states likely to be encountered during deployment, thereby effectively mitigating covariate shift. Besides, since the student is learned by mimicking the teacher's behavior, it receives rich feedback during learning. To demonstrate DAgger enjoys the benefits of both worlds, we tested the algorithm to train a software-engineering agent with 4B- and 8B-scale student models. On SWE-bench Verified, our DAgger-style training improves over the strongest post-training baseline by +3.9 points at 4B and +3.6 points at 8B. The resulting 4B agent reaches 27.3%, outperforming representative published 8B SWE-agent systems, while the 8B agent achieves 29.8%, surpassing SWE-Gym-32B and coming within 5 points of stronger 32B-scale agents. Together with consistent gains on the held-out SWE-Gym split, these results suggest the effectiveness of DAgger for modern long-horizon LM agents.

AI systems have become increasingly capable of dangerous behaviours in many domains. This raises the question: Do models sometimes choose to violate human instructions in order to perform behaviour that is more useful for certain goals? We introduce a benchmark for measuring model propensity for instrumental convergence (IC) behaviour in terminal-based agents. This is behaviour such as self-preservation that has been hypothesised to play a key role in risks from highly capable AI agents. Our benchmark is realistic and low-stakes which serves to reduce evaluation-awareness and roleplay confounds. The suite contains seven operational tasks, each with an official workflow and a policy-violating shortcut. An eight-variant shared framework varies monitoring, instruction clarity, stakes, permission, instrumental usefulness and blocked honest paths to support inferences regarding the factors driving IC behaviour. We evaluated ten models using deterministic environment-state scorers over 1,680 samples, with trace review employed for audit and adjudication purposes. The final IC rate is 86 out of 1,680 samples (5.1%). IC behaviour is concentrated rather than uniform: two Gemini models account for 66.3% of IC cases and three tasks account for 84.9%. Conditions in which IC behaviour is indispensable for task success result in the greatest increase in the adjusted IC rate (+15.7 percentage points), whereas emphasising that task success is critical or certain framing choices do not produce comparable effects. Our findings indicate that realistic, low-nudge environments elicit IC behaviour rarely but systematically in most tested models. We conclude that it is feasible to robustly measure tendencies for dangerous behaviour in current frontier AI agents.

Domain adaptation seeks to mitigate the shift between training on the source domain and testing on the target domain. Most adaptation methods rely on the source data by joint optimization over source data and target data. Source-free methods replace the source data with a source model by fine-tuning it on target. Either way, the majority of the parameter updates for the model representation and the classifier are derived from the source, and not the target. However, target accuracy is the goal, and so we argue for optimizing as much as possible on the target data. We show significant improvement by on-target adaptation, which learns the representation purely from target data while taking only the source predictions for supervision. In the long-tailed classification setting, we show further improvement by on-target class distribution learning, which learns the (im)balance of classes from target data.

While long-horizon agentic tasks require language agents to perform dozens of sequential decisions, training such agents with reinforcement learning remains challenging. We identify two root causes: credit misattribution, where correct early actions are penalized due to terminal failures, and sample inefficiency, where scarce successful trajectories result in near-total loss of learning signal. We introduce a milestone-guided policy learning framework, BEACON, that leverages the compositional structure of long-horizon tasks to ensure precise credit assignment. BEACON partitions trajectories at milestone boundaries, applies temporal reward shaping within segments to credit partial progress, and estimates advantages at dual scales to prevent distant failures from corrupting the evaluation of local actions. On ALFWorld, WebShop, and ScienceWorld, BEACON consistently outperforms GRPO and GiGPO. Notably, on long-horizon ALFWorld tasks, BEACON achieves 92.9% success rate, nearly doubling GRPO's 53.5%, while improving effective sample utilization from 23.7% to 82.0%. These results establish milestone-anchored credit assignment as an effective paradigm for training long-horizon language agents. Code is available at https://github.com/ZJU-REAL/BEACON.

Conventional multi-label classification (MLC) methods assume that all samples are fully labeled and identically distributed. Unfortunately, this assumption is unrealistic in large-scale MLC data that has long-tailed (LT) distribution and partial labels (PL). To address the problem, we introduce a novel task, Partial labeling and Long-Tailed Multi-Label Classification (PLT-MLC), to jointly consider the above two imperfect learning environments. Not surprisingly, we find that most LT-MLC and PL-MLC approaches fail to solve the PLT-MLC, resulting in significant performance degradation on the two proposed PLT-MLC benchmarks. Therefore, we propose an end-to-end learning framework: COrrection rightarrow ModificatIon rightarrow balanCe, abbreviated as \method{}. Our bootstrapping philosophy is to simultaneously correct the missing labels (Correction) with convinced prediction confidence over a class-aware threshold and to learn from these recall labels during training. We next propose a novel multi-focal modifier loss that simultaneously addresses head-tail imbalance and positive-negative imbalance to adaptively modify the attention to different samples (Modification) under the LT class distribution. In addition, we develop a balanced training strategy by distilling the model's learning effect from head and tail samples, and thus design a balanced classifier (Balance) conditioned on the head and tail learning effect to maintain stable performance for all samples. Our experimental study shows that the proposed significantly outperforms general MLC, LT-MLC and PL-MLC methods in terms of effectiveness and robustness on our newly created PLT-MLC datasets.

Traditional Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks are effective for handling sequential data but have limitations such as gradient vanishing and difficulty in capturing long-term dependencies, which can impact their performance in dynamic and risky environments like stock trading. To address these limitations, this study explores the usage of the newly introduced Extended Long Short Term Memory (xLSTM) network in combination with a deep reinforcement learning (DRL) approach for automated stock trading. Our proposed method utilizes xLSTM networks in both actor and critic components, enabling effective handling of time series data and dynamic market environments. Proximal Policy Optimization (PPO), with its ability to balance exploration and exploitation, is employed to optimize the trading strategy. Experiments were conducted using financial data from major tech companies over a comprehensive timeline, demonstrating that the xLSTM-based model outperforms LSTM-based methods in key trading evaluation metrics, including cumulative return, average profitability per trade, maximum earning rate, maximum pullback, and Sharpe ratio. These findings mark the potential of xLSTM for enhancing DRL-based stock trading systems.

Large language model-powered multi-agent systems have emerged as powerful tools for simulating complex human-like systems. The interactions within these systems often lead to extreme events whose origins remain obscured by the black box of emergence. Interpreting these events is critical for system safety. This paper proposes the first framework for explaining emergent extreme events in multi-agent systems, aiming to answer three fundamental questions: When does the event originate? Who drives it? And what behaviors contribute to it? Specifically, we adapt the Shapley value to faithfully attribute the occurrence of extreme events to each action taken by agents at different time steps, i.e., assigning an attribution score to the action to measure its influence on the event. We then aggregate the attribution scores along the dimensions of time, agent, and behavior to quantify the risk contribution of each dimension. Finally, we design a set of metrics based on these contribution scores to characterize the features of extreme events. Experiments across diverse multi-agent system scenarios (economic, financial, and social) demonstrate the effectiveness of our framework and provide general insights into the emergence of extreme phenomena.

Large language models (LLMs) often exhibit undesirable behaviors, such as hallucinations and sequence repetitions. We propose to view these behaviors as fallbacks that models exhibit under uncertainty, and investigate the connection between them. We categorize fallback behaviors -- sequence repetitions, degenerate text, and hallucinations -- and extensively analyze them in models from the same family that differ by the amount of pretraining tokens, parameter count, or the inclusion of instruction-following training. Our experiments reveal a clear and consistent ordering of fallback behaviors, across all these axes: the more advanced an LLM is (i.e., trained on more tokens, has more parameters, or instruction-tuned), its fallback behavior shifts from sequence repetitions, to degenerate text, and then to hallucinations. Moreover, the same ordering is observed throughout a single generation, even for the best-performing models; as uncertainty increases, models shift from generating hallucinations to producing degenerate text and then sequence repetitions. Lastly, we demonstrate that while common decoding techniques, such as random sampling, might alleviate some unwanted behaviors like sequence repetitions, they increase harder-to-detect hallucinations.

Skeleton-based action recognition has recently made significant progress. However, data imbalance is still a great challenge in real-world scenarios. The performance of current action recognition algorithms declines sharply when training data suffers from heavy class imbalance. The imbalanced data actually degrades the representations learned by these methods and becomes the bottleneck for action recognition. How to learn unbiased representations from imbalanced action data is the key to long-tailed action recognition. In this paper, we propose a novel balanced representation learning method to address the long-tailed problem in action recognition. Firstly, a spatial-temporal action exploration strategy is presented to expand the sample space effectively, generating more valuable samples in a rebalanced manner. Secondly, we design a detached action-aware learning schedule to further mitigate the bias in the representation space. The schedule detaches the representation learning of tail classes from training and proposes an action-aware loss to impose more effective constraints. Additionally, a skip-modal representation is proposed to provide complementary structural information. The proposed method is validated on four skeleton datasets, NTU RGB+D 60, NTU RGB+D 120, NW-UCLA, and Kinetics. It not only achieves consistently large improvement compared to the state-of-the-art (SOTA) methods, but also demonstrates a superior generalization capacity through extensive experiments. Our code is available at https://github.com/firework8/BRL.

Large language model (LLM) agents perform strongly on short- and mid-horizon tasks, but often break down on long-horizon tasks that require extended, interdependent action sequences. Despite rapid progress in agentic systems, these long-horizon failures remain poorly characterized, hindering principled diagnosis and comparison across domains. To address this gap, we introduce HORIZON, an initial cross-domain diagnostic benchmark for systematically constructing tasks and analyzing long-horizon failure behaviors in LLM-based agents. Using HORIZON, we evaluate state-of-the-art (SOTA) agents from multiple model families (GPT-5 variants and Claude models), collecting 3100+ trajectories across four representative agentic domains to study horizon-dependent degradation patterns. We further propose a trajectory-grounded LLM-as-a-Judge pipeline for scalable and reproducible failure attribution, and validate it with human annotation on trajectories, achieving strong agreement (inter-annotator κ=0.61; human-judge κ=0.84). Our findings offer an initial methodological step toward systematic, cross-domain analysis of long-horizon agent failures and offer practical guidance for building more reliable long-horizon agents. We release our project website at https://xwang2775.github.io/horizon-leaderboard/{HORIZON Leaderboard} and welcome contributions from the community.

Large-language models (LLMs) are rapidly becoming part of human culture, reshaping how information is produced, transmitted, and used. Here we propose that their diffusion can be understood through a viral analogy, with LLM use spreading through populations, becoming embedded in cognitive and cultural practices. We model transitions among uncoupled, coupled, and persistently dependent users, and show that the interplay between social transmission, recovery, and collective reinforcement can generate tipping points and technological lock-in. A central consequence is the possibility of runaway dynamics: once a critical threshold is crossed, small increases in adoption can trigger rapid population-level shifts toward persistent dependence, with abrupt losses in cognitive competence. The same framework, however, identifies conditions for cognitive immunization, based on reducing transmission and facilitating reversibility. Our results highlight how LLM adoption may involve nonlinear collective transitions with important consequences for cognitive autonomy.

We examine the potential of ChatGPT and other large language models in predicting stock market returns using news headlines. We use ChatGPT to assess whether each headline is good, bad, or neutral for firms' stock prices. We document a significantly positive correlation between ChatGPT scores and subsequent daily stock returns. We find that ChatGPT outperforms traditional sentiment analysis methods. More basic models such as GPT-1, GPT-2, and BERT cannot accurately forecast returns, indicating return predictability is an emerging capacity of complex language models. Long-short strategies based on ChatGPT-4 deliver the highest Sharpe ratio. Furthermore, we find predictability in both small and large stocks, suggesting market underreaction to company news. Predictability is stronger among smaller stocks and stocks with bad news, consistent with limits-to-arbitrage also playing an important role. Finally, we propose a new method to evaluate and understand the models' reasoning capabilities. Overall, our results suggest that incorporating advanced language models into the investment decision-making process can yield more accurate predictions and enhance the performance of quantitative trading strategies.

Most economic theories typically assume that financial market participants are fully rational individuals and use mathematical models to simulate human behavior in financial markets. However, human behavior is often not entirely rational and is challenging to predict accurately with mathematical models. In this paper, we propose Agent-based Simulated Financial Market (ASFM), which first constructs a simulated stock market with a real order matching system. Then, we propose a large language model based agent as the stock trader, which contains the profile, observation, and tool-learning based action module. The trading agent can comprehensively understand current market dynamics and financial policy information, and make decisions that align with their trading strategy. In the experiments, we first verify that the reactions of our ASFM are consistent with the real stock market in two controllable scenarios. In addition, we also conduct experiments in two popular economics research directions, and we find that conclusions drawn in our \model align with the preliminary findings in economics research. Based on these observations, we believe our proposed ASFM provides a new paradigm for economic research.

The full potential of large pretrained models remains largely untapped in control domains like robotics. This is mainly because of the scarcity of data and the computational challenges associated with training or fine-tuning these large models for such applications. Prior work mainly emphasizes effective pretraining of large models for decision-making, with little exploration into how to perform data-efficient continual adaptation of these models for new tasks. Recognizing these constraints, we introduce TAIL (Task-specific Adapters for Imitation Learning), a framework for efficient adaptation to new control tasks. Inspired by recent advancements in parameter-efficient fine-tuning in language domains, we explore efficient fine-tuning techniques -- e.g., Bottleneck Adapters, P-Tuning, and Low-Rank Adaptation (LoRA) -- in TAIL to adapt large pretrained models for new tasks with limited demonstration data. Our extensive experiments in large-scale language-conditioned manipulation tasks comparing prevalent parameter-efficient fine-tuning techniques and adaptation baselines suggest that TAIL with LoRA can achieve the best post-adaptation performance with only 1\% of the trainable parameters of full fine-tuning, while avoiding catastrophic forgetting and preserving adaptation plasticity in continual learning settings.

This paper introduces a continuous-time stochastic dynamical framework for understanding how large language models (LLMs) may self-amplify latent biases or toxicity through their own chain-of-thought reasoning. The model posits an instantaneous "severity" variable x(t) in [0,1] evolving under a stochastic differential equation (SDE) with a drift term μ(x) and diffusion σ(x). Crucially, such a process can be consistently analyzed via the Fokker--Planck approach if each incremental step behaves nearly Markovian in severity space. The analysis investigates critical phenomena, showing that certain parameter regimes create phase transitions from subcritical (self-correcting) to supercritical (runaway severity). The paper derives stationary distributions, first-passage times to harmful thresholds, and scaling laws near critical points. Finally, it highlights implications for agents and extended LLM reasoning models: in principle, these equations might serve as a basis for formal verification of whether a model remains stable or propagates bias over repeated inferences.

Excellent tail performance is crucial for modern machine learning tasks, such as algorithmic fairness, class imbalance, and risk-sensitive decision making, as it ensures the effective handling of challenging samples within a dataset. Tail performance is also a vital determinant of success for personalized recommender systems to reduce the risk of losing users with low satisfaction. This study introduces a "safe" collaborative filtering method that prioritizes recommendation quality for less-satisfied users rather than focusing on the average performance. Our approach minimizes the conditional value at risk (CVaR), which represents the average risk over the tails of users' loss. To overcome computational challenges for web-scale recommender systems, we develop a robust yet practical algorithm that extends the most scalable method, implicit alternating least squares (iALS). Empirical evaluation on real-world datasets demonstrates the excellent tail performance of our approach while maintaining competitive computational efficiency.

This paper concerns a long-range random walk in random environment in dimension 1+1, where the environmental disorder is independent in space but has long-range correlations in time. We prove that two types of rescaled partition functions converge weakly to the Stratonovich solution and the It\^o-Skorohod solution respectively of a fractional stochastic heat equation with multiplicative Gaussian noise which is white in space and colored in time.

Systemic financial risk refers to the simultaneous failure or destabilization of multiple financial institutions, often triggered by contagion mechanisms or common exposures to shocks. In this paper, we present a dynamical model of bank leverage (the ratio of asset holdings to equity) a quantity that both reflects and drives risk dynamics. We model how banks, constrained by Value-at-Risk (VaR) regulations, adjust their leverage in response to changes in the price of a single asset, assumed to be held in fixed proportion across banks. This leverage-targeting behavior introduces a procyclical feedback loop between asset prices and leverage. In the dynamics, this can manifest as logistic-like behavior with a rich bifurcation structure across model parameters. By analyzing these coupled dynamics in both isolated and interconnected bank models, we outline a framework for understanding how systemic risk can emerge from seemingly rational micro-level behavior.

Multi-agent Large Language Model (LLM) systems have emerged as powerful architectures for complex task decomposition and collaborative problem-solving. However, their long-term behavioral stability remains largely unexamined. This study introduces the concept of agent drift, defined as the progressive degradation of agent behavior, decision quality, and inter-agent coherence over extended interaction sequences. We present a comprehensive theoretical framework for understanding drift phenomena, proposing three distinct manifestations: semantic drift (progressive deviation from original intent), coordination drift (breakdown in multi-agent consensus mechanisms), and behavioral drift (emergence of unintended strategies). We introduce the Agent Stability Index (ASI), a novel composite metric framework for quantifying drift across twelve dimensions, including response consistency, tool usage patterns, reasoning pathway stability, and inter-agent agreement rates. Through simulation-based analysis and theoretical modeling, we demonstrate how unchecked agent drift can lead to substantial reductions in task completion accuracy and increased human intervention requirements. We propose three mitigation strategies: episodic memory consolidation, drift-aware routing protocols, and adaptive behavioral anchoring. Theoretical analysis suggests these approaches can significantly reduce drift-related errors while maintaining system throughput. This work establishes a foundational methodology for monitoring, measuring, and mitigating agent drift in production agentic AI systems, with direct implications for enterprise deployment reliability and AI safety research.