Datasets:

SimpleFunctions
/

world-state-daily

+{
+  "date": "2026-10-09",
+  "timestamp": "2026-10-09T23:50:35.684Z",
+  "index": {
+    "disagreement": 0,
+    "geoRisk": 0,
+    "breadth": 0,
+    "activity": 30
+  },
+  "traditional": [],
+  "topics": [],
+  "topEdges": [],
+  "divergences": [],
+  "markdown": "# World (2026-10-09 17:01 UTC)\nRegime: Steady — no dominant macro signal\nSimpleFunctions Index: Disagree 0 | GeoRisk 0 | Breadth 0.00 | Activity 30\nBaseline: last 12h\n\n## [consensus_break] Republicans win the Senate race in Oklahoma?: 4 markets deeply split (σ=44¢, range 93¢)\n- seriesKey: SENATEOK\n- markets: [{\"ticker\":\"SENATEOK-28-R\",\"title\":\"Will Republicans win the Senate race in Oklahoma?: Republican party\",\"price\":89},{\"ticker\":\"SENATEOK-28-D\",\"title\":\"Will Democratics win the ...\n- dispersion: 44\n- range: 93\n- implication: markets disagree on resolution level\n  → full spread · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=dispersion`\n  → why disagree? · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=explain&item=s-gn8i1`\n\n## [consensus_break] Hannes Hanso be the next President of Estoni…: 3 markets deeply split (σ=44¢, range 93¢)\n- seriesKey: KXESTPRES\n- markets: [{\"ticker\":\"KXESTPRES-27JAN01-UMAD\",\"title\":\"Will Ülle Madise be the next President of Estonia before Jan 1, 2027?: Ülle Madise\",\"price\":96},{\"ticker\":\"KXESTPRES-27JAN01-HHAN\",\"...\n- dispersion: 44\n- range: 93\n- implication: markets disagree on resolution level\n  → full spread · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=dispersion`\n  → why disagree? · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=explain&item=s-2qmpbm`\n\n## [consensus_break] Republicans win the Senate race in Arkansas?: 4 markets deeply split (σ=44¢, range 91¢)\n- seriesKey: SENATEAR\n- markets: [{\"ticker\":\"SENATEAR-28-R\",\"title\":\"Will Republicans win the Senate race in Arkansas?: Republican party\",\"price\":90},{\"ticker\":\"SENATEAR-28-D\",\"title\":\"Will Democratics win the ...\n- dispersion: 44\n- range: 91\n- implication: markets disagree on resolution level\n  → full spread · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=dispersion`\n  → why disagree? · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=explain&item=s-gn866`\n\n## [resolving_soon] 95% no in 2d — Mamdani sign above 0 executive orders betwee…\n- ticker: KXMAMDANIEO-26OCT10-T0\n- venue: kalshi\n- title: Will Mamdani sign above 0 executive orders between Oct 4, 2026 and Oct 10, 2026?: Above 0\n- price: 5\n- settlesInHours: 38\n- impliedProbability: 0.05\n- ifYes: resolves TRUE, pays 100¢\n- ifNo: resolves FALSE, pays 0¢\n  → price path · `GET /api/public/market/KXMAMDANIEO-26OCT10-T0`\n  → nearby resolutions · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=catalyst`\n  → siblings · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=trail&from=KXMAMDANIEO-26OCT10-T0`\n\n## [novel] NEW 7h @ 21¢ — margin of victory for Republicans in the Arizona'…\n- ticker: KXMIDTERMMOV-AZ08R-P24\n- venue: kalshi\n- title: Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the Arizona's 8th District House election be at least 24 percentage points?: Hamadeh, 24+ pts\n- listedAgoHours: 7\n- currentPrice: 21\n- volume24h: 471\n- note: listedAt = Kalshi open_time (proxy for created_at)\n  → similar prior · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=trail&from=KXMIDTERMMOV-AZ08R-P24`\n  → topic path · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=history&dt=24h`\n\n## [novel] NEW 8h @ 63¢ — margin of victory for Republicans in the governor…\n- ticker: KXMIDTERMMOV-WYGOVR-P40\n- venue: kalshi\n- title: Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the governor election in Wyoming be at least 40 percentage points?: Barlow, 40+ pts\n- listedAgoHours: 8\n- currentPrice: 63\n- volume24h: 200\n- note: listedAt = Kalshi open_time (proxy for created_at)\n  → similar prior · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=trail&from=KXMIDTERMMOV-WYGOVR-P40`\n  → topic path · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=history&dt=24h`\n\n## [novel] NEW 8h @ 50¢ — margin of victory for Republicans in the governor…\n- ticker: KXMIDTERMMOV-WYGOVR-P43\n- venue: kalshi\n- title: Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the governor election in Wyoming be at least 43 percentage points?: Barlow, 43+ pts\n- listedAgoHours: 8\n- currentPrice: 50\n- volume24h: 200\n- note: listedAt = Kalshi open_time (proxy for created_at)\n  → similar prior · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=trail&from=KXMIDTERMMOV-WYGOVR-P43`\n  → topic path · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=history&dt=24h`\n\n## [consensus_break] Republicans win the Senate race in South Dak…: 4 markets deeply split (σ=44¢, range 89¢)\n- seriesKey: SENATESD\n- markets: [{\"ticker\":\"SENATESD-28-R\",\"title\":\"Will Republicans win the Senate race in South Dakota?: Republican party\",\"price\":91},{\"ticker\":\"SENATESD-28-D\",\"title\":\"Will Democratics win ...\n- dispersion: 44\n- range: 89\n- implication: markets disagree on resolution level\n  → full spread · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=dispersion`\n  → why disagree? · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=explain&item=s-gn8la`\n\n## [consensus_break] Republicans win the Senate race in Illinois?: 3 markets deeply split (σ=43¢, range 94¢)\n- seriesKey: SENATEIL\n- markets: [{\"ticker\":\"SENATEIL-28-D\",\"title\":\"Will Democratics win the Senate race in Illinois?: Democratic party\",\"price\":92},{\"ticker\":\"SENATEIL-28-R\",\"title\":\"Will Republicans win the ...\n- dispersion: 43\n- range: 94\n- implication: markets disagree on resolution level\n  → full spread · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=dispersion`\n  → why disagree? · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=explain&item=s-gn8cw`\n\n## [novel] NEW 7h @ 1¢ — U.S. pay between billion and billion for Greenlan…\n- ticker: KXGREENLANDPRICE-29JAN21-5B\n- venue: kalshi\n- title: Will the U.S. pay between $1 billion and $9 billion for Greenland during Trump's term?: $1 billion to $9 billion\n- listedAgoHours: 7\n- currentPrice: 1\n- volume24h: 100\n- note: listedAt = Kalshi open_time (proxy for created_at)\n  → similar prior · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=trail&from=KXGREENLANDPRICE-29JAN21-5B`\n  → topic path · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=history&dt=24h`\n\n## Zoom\n- **Iran** — 56 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/iran`\n- **Oil & Energy** — 143 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/oil`\n- **Fed & Rates** — 721 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/fed-rate`\n- **Recession** — 605 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/recession`\n- **2026 Elections** — 1902 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/election-2026`\n- **Crypto** — 301 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/bitcoin`\n- **Ukraine/Russia** — 79 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/ukraine`\n- **China/Taiwan** — 100 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/china`\n\n---\nPath: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world\nOp: snapshot · Generated in 121199ms",
+  "markdownTokenEstimate": 1703
+}