| "markdown": "# World (2026-05-30 23:45 UTC)\nRegime: Broad up-skew — markets resolving toward higher probability\nSimpleFunctions Index: Disagree 45 | GeoRisk 23 | Breadth +0.34 | Activity 0\nBaseline: last 12h\n\n## [divergence] Democrats win the House race for IN-0… overshooting Democratic win the House race for IL-… — 67¢ gap [US Elections]\n- lhs: {\"name\":\"Will Democratic win the House race for IL-04?: Patty Garcia\",\"Δ\":\"-77c\"}\n- rhs: {\"name\":\"Will Democrats win the House race for IN-07?: André Carson\",\"Δ\":\"51c\"}\n- gap: -67\n- theme: US Elections\n- triggerTicker: KXHOUSERACE-IL04-26-D\n- laggingTicker: KXHOUSEIN7-26-D\n → why? · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=explain&item=s-4a65vz`\n → Will Democratic win the House race for IL-04?: Patty Garcia spread · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=dispersion`\n → 6h path · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=history&dt=6h`\n\n## [consensus_break] CA-04 Primary Winners: 4 markets deeply split (σ=44¢, range 90¢)\n- seriesKey: 232576\n- markets: [{\"ticker\":\"0x1972da460e8d3b6654e96ab3374003367af411c97244e25f981d1f67547c56e7\",\"title\":\"CA-04 Primary Winners: Mike Thompson\",\"price\":93},{\"ticker\":\"0x37e9fa09e605b87c7854ea2ae...\n- dispersion: 44\n- range: 90\n- implication: markets disagree on resolution level\n → full spread · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=dispersion`\n → why disagree? · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=explain&item=s-xr8u56`\n\n## [consensus_break] Lindsay James be the Democratic nominee for …: 6 markets deeply split (σ=44¢, range 94¢)\n- seriesKey: KXIAPRIMARY\n- markets: [{\"ticker\":\"KXIAPRIMARY-01R26-MMIL\",\"title\":\"Will Mariannette Miller-Meeks be the Republican nominee for IA-01?: Mariannette Miller-Meeks\",\"price\":97},{\"ticker\":\"KXIAPRIMARY-02D...\n- dispersion: 44\n- range: 94\n- implication: markets disagree on resolution level\n → full spread · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=dispersion`\n → why disagree? · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=explain&item=s-is0mhy`\n\n## [consensus_break] Oklahoma Governor Democratic Primary Winner: 3 markets deeply split (σ=43¢, range 92¢)\n- seriesKey: 97496\n- markets: [{\"ticker\":\"0x44277993368a2f9011cabfbee8894c7d71d3aad29c3049a8651c4d15db92ee04\",\"title\":\"Oklahoma Governor Democratic Primary Winner: Constance N. Johnson\",\"price\":3},{\"ticker\":...\n- dispersion: 43\n- range: 92\n- implication: markets disagree on resolution level\n → full spread · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=dispersion`\n → why disagree? · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=explain&item=s-6xcaak`\n\n## [resolving_soon] 95% yes in 4h — average **gas prices** be above?\n- ticker: KXAAAGASD-26MAY31-4.310\n- venue: kalshi\n- title: Will average **gas prices** be above $4.310?: Above 4.310\n- price: 95\n- settlesInHours: 4\n- impliedProbability: 0.95\n- ifYes: resolves TRUE, pays 100¢\n- ifNo: resolves FALSE, pays 0¢\n → price path · `GET /api/public/market/KXAAAGASD-26MAY31-4.310`\n → nearby resolutions · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=catalyst`\n → siblings · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=trail&from=KXAAAGASD-26MAY31-4.310`\n\n## [resolving_soon] 94% yes in 4h — average **gas prices** be above?\n- ticker: KXAAAGASD-26MAY31-4.320\n- venue: kalshi\n- title: Will average **gas prices** be above $4.320?: Above 4.320\n- price: 94\n- settlesInHours: 4\n- impliedProbability: 0.94\n- ifYes: resolves TRUE, pays 100¢\n- ifNo: resolves FALSE, pays 0¢\n → price path · `GET /api/public/market/KXAAAGASD-26MAY31-4.320`\n → nearby resolutions · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=catalyst`\n → siblings · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=trail&from=KXAAAGASD-26MAY31-4.320`\n\n## [resolving_soon] 95% no in 14h — Anastasiia and Salsa finish Top 5 in Britain…\n- ticker: KXBGTRANK-26MAY31-TOP5-ANA\n- venue: kalshi\n- title: Will Anastasiia and Salsa finish Top 5 in Britain's Got Talent Season 19?: Anastasiia and Salsa\n- price: 5\n- settlesInHours: 14\n- impliedProbability: 0.05\n- ifYes: resolves TRUE, pays 100¢\n- ifNo: resolves FALSE, pays 0¢\n → price path · `GET /api/public/market/KXBGTRANK-26MAY31-TOP5-ANA`\n → nearby resolutions · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=catalyst`\n → siblings · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=trail&from=KXBGTRANK-26MAY31-TOP5-ANA`\n\n## [novel] NEW 8h @ 6¢ — Hantavirus pandemic in?\n- ticker: 0xa4ddc18895cc7b14810283ef8f113939abffd3969c6a0e37f1897110c67e6f73\n- venue: polymarket\n- title: Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?\n- listedAgoHours: 8\n- currentPrice: 6\n- volume24h: 154814\n- note: listedAt = Polymarket createdAt\n → similar prior · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=trail&from=0xa4ddc18895cc7b14810283ef8f113939abffd3969c6a0e37f1897110c67e6f73`\n → topic path · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=history&dt=24h`\n\n## [novel] NEW 7h @ 1¢ — Ralph Norman be the Republican nominee for Govern…\n- ticker: KXGOVSCNOMR-26-RNOR\n- venue: kalshi\n- title: Will Ralph Norman be the Republican nominee for Governor in South Carolina?: Ralph Norman\n- listedAgoHours: 7\n- currentPrice: 1\n- volume24h: 13130\n- note: listedAt = Kalshi open_time (proxy for created_at)\n → similar prior · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=trail&from=KXGOVSCNOMR-26-RNOR`\n → topic path · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=history&dt=24h`\n\n## [novel] NEW 8h @ 16¢ — GameStop acquire eBay?\n- ticker: 0x32e869cb0f7316273417ec79aa94c8a139f8c390ebff8a24150a18753d257f8e\n- venue: polymarket\n- title: Will GameStop acquire eBay?\n- listedAgoHours: 8\n- currentPrice: 16\n- volume24h: 11429\n- note: listedAt = Polymarket createdAt\n → similar prior · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=trail&from=0x32e869cb0f7316273417ec79aa94c8a139f8c390ebff8a24150a18753d257f8e`\n → topic path · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=history&dt=24h`\n\n## Zoom\n- **Iran** — 288 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/iran`\n- **Oil & Energy** — 480 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/oil`\n- **Fed & Rates** — 1084 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/fed-rate`\n- **Recession** — 650 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/recession`\n- **2026 Elections** — 3170 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/election-2026`\n- **Crypto** — 1133 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/bitcoin`\n- **Ukraine/Russia** — 350 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/ukraine`\n- **China/Taiwan** — 278 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/china`\n\n---\nPath: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world\nOp: snapshot · Generated in 5390ms", |
