| "markdown": "# World (2026-04-30 23:45 UTC)\nRegime: Steady — no dominant macro signal\nSF Index: Disagree 35 | GeoRisk 34 | Breadth +0.24 | Activity 57\nBaseline: last 12h\n\n## [divergence] Italy GDP growth rate QoQ adv for Q1 … overshooting Germany unemployment rate in May? — 73¢ gap [US fiscal / recession]\n- lhs: {\"name\":\"Germany unemployment rate in May 2026?: Above 6.1%\",\"Δ\":\"60c\"}\n- rhs: {\"name\":\"Will Italy GDP growth rate QoQ adv for Q1 2026 be above -0.1%?: Above -0.1%\",\"Δ\":\"94c\"}\n- gap: -73\n- theme: US fiscal / recession\n- triggerTicker: KXUE-GER26MAY-6.1\n- laggingTicker: KXITGDPQOQA-26MAY29-T-0.1\n → why? · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=explain&item=s-hf3pgo`\n → Germany unemployment rate in May 2026?: Above 6.1% spread · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=dispersion`\n → 6h path · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=history&dt=6h`\n\n## [divergence] WA-08 House Election Winner lagging total vote count for all participants… — 55¢ gap [US Elections]\n- lhs: {\"name\":\"Will the total vote count for all participants in the 2026 Maine Senate Democrat\",\"Δ\":\"71c\"}\n- rhs: {\"name\":\"WA-08 House Election Winner: Democratic Party\",\"Δ\":\"54c\"}\n- gap: 55\n- theme: US Elections\n- triggerTicker: KXPRIMARYTURNOUT-SENATEMED26-140000\n- laggingTicker: 0xbd170150af81f000d76f1dd82c6cd95d416f011eddd1cfd284c9f19201747621\n → why? · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=explain&item=s-mhxqsd`\n → Will the total vote count for all participants in the 2026 Maine Senate Democrat spread · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=dispersion`\n → 6h path · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=history&dt=6h`\n\n## [divergence] Cadillac Championship: Will Jordan L.… lagging Turkish Airlines Open: Will Matthew J… — 39¢ gap [Middle East / Israel]\n- lhs: {\"name\":\"Turkish Airlines Open: Will Matthew Jordan make the cut?: Matthew Jordan\",\"Δ\":\"68c\"}\n- rhs: {\"name\":\"Cadillac Championship: Will Jordan L. Smith finish top 20?: Jordan L. Smith\",\"Δ\":\"15c\"}\n- gap: 39\n- theme: Middle East / Israel\n- triggerTicker: KXDPWORLDTOURMAKECUT-TUAO26-MJOR\n- laggingTicker: KXPGATOP20-CAC26-JSMI\n → why? · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=explain&item=s-8hxc1a`\n → Turkish Airlines Open: Will Matthew Jordan make the cut?: Matthew Jordan spread · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=dispersion`\n → 6h path · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=history&dt=6h`\n\n## [consensus_break] Eli be featured on Midnight Sun (Deluxe) — Z…: 4 markets deeply split (σ=46¢, range 94¢)\n- seriesKey: KXFEATUREZLARSSON\n- markets: [{\"ticker\":\"KXFEATUREZLARSSON-27-SEL\",\"title\":\"Will Selena Gomez be featured on Midnight Sun (Deluxe) — Zara Larsson?: Selena Gomez\",\"price\":3},{\"ticker\":\"KXFEATUREZLARSSON-27-D...\n- dispersion: 46\n- range: 94\n- implication: markets disagree on resolution level\n → full spread · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=dispersion`\n → why disagree? · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=explain&item=s-ftk1hw`\n\n## [consensus_break] RTX 5090 compute per hour price be above?: 36 markets deeply split (σ=45¢, range 94¢)\n- seriesKey: KXRTX5090MON\n- markets: [{\"ticker\":\"KXRTX5090MON-26APR30-0.293\",\"title\":\"Will the RTX 5090 compute per hour price be above $0.293 on Apr 30?: Above $0.29\",\"price\":97},{\"ticker\":\"KXRTX5090MON-26APR30-0....\n- dispersion: 45\n- range: 94\n- implication: markets disagree on resolution level\n → full spread · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=dispersion`\n → why disagree? · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=explain&item=s-qbdlvs`\n\n## [consensus_break] Which teams will qualify to IEM Cologne Majo…: 3 markets deeply split (σ=44¢, range 94¢)\n- seriesKey: 248380\n- markets: [{\"ticker\":\"0x52fd140af510a2484b0e58533e6dbe90ec0e4ab011d1108ef91e890a26530b14\",\"title\":\"Which teams will qualify to IEM Cologne Major 2026? : BIG\",\"price\":97},{\"ticker\":\"0xf747...\n- dispersion: 44\n- range: 94\n- implication: markets disagree on resolution level\n → full spread · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=dispersion`\n → why disagree? · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=explain&item=s-xrwf70`\n\n## [resolving_soon] 95% no in 4h — When will Rippling IPO?\n- ticker: KXIPORIPPLING-26MAY01\n- venue: kalshi\n- title: When will Rippling IPO?: Before May 1, 2026\n- price: 5\n- settlesInHours: 4\n- impliedProbability: 0.05\n- ifYes: resolves TRUE, pays 100¢\n- ifNo: resolves FALSE, pays 0¢\n → price path · `GET /api/public/market/KXIPORIPPLING-26MAY01`\n → nearby resolutions · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=catalyst`\n → siblings · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=trail&from=KXIPORIPPLING-26MAY01`\n\n## [resolving_soon] 95% no in 4h — When will Ramp IPO?\n- ticker: KXIPORAMP-26MAY01\n- venue: kalshi\n- title: When will Ramp IPO?: Before May 1, 2026\n- price: 5\n- settlesInHours: 4\n- impliedProbability: 0.05\n- ifYes: resolves TRUE, pays 100¢\n- ifNo: resolves FALSE, pays 0¢\n → price path · `GET /api/public/market/KXIPORAMP-26MAY01`\n → nearby resolutions · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=catalyst`\n → siblings · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=trail&from=KXIPORAMP-26MAY01`\n\n## [resolving_soon] 95% no in 4h — When will Olipop IPO?\n- ticker: KXIPOOLIPOP-26MAY01\n- venue: kalshi\n- title: When will Olipop IPO?: Before May 1, 2026\n- price: 5\n- settlesInHours: 4\n- impliedProbability: 0.05\n- ifYes: resolves TRUE, pays 100¢\n- ifNo: resolves FALSE, pays 0¢\n → price path · `GET /api/public/market/KXIPOOLIPOP-26MAY01`\n → nearby resolutions · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=catalyst`\n → siblings · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=trail&from=KXIPOOLIPOP-26MAY01`\n\n## [novel] NEW 3h @ 1¢ — margin of victory for No in the Virginia redistri…\n- ticker: KXMOVVAREDISTRICT-26APR21-NO-P1\n- venue: kalshi\n- title: Will the margin of victory for No in the 2026 Virginia redistricting amendment be between 0% and 3%?: No, 0-3%\n- listedAgoHours: 3\n- currentPrice: 1\n- volume24h: 330758\n- note: listedAt = Kalshi open_time (proxy for created_at)\n → similar prior · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=trail&from=KXMOVVAREDISTRICT-26APR21-NO-P1`\n → topic path · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=history&dt=24h`\n\n## Zoom\n- **Iran** — 273 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/iran`\n- **Oil & Energy** — 308 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/oil`\n- **Fed & Rates** — 1193 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/fed-rate`\n- **Recession** — 657 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/recession`\n- **2026 Elections** — 2859 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/election-2026`\n- **Crypto** — 1212 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/bitcoin`\n- **Ukraine/Russia** — 320 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/ukraine`\n- **China/Taiwan** — 244 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/china`\n\n---\nPath: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world\nOp: snapshot · Generated in 4809ms", |
