| "markdown": "# World (2026-04-18 23:40 UTC)\nRegime: Broad up-skew — markets resolving toward higher probability\nSF Index: Disagree 55 | GeoRisk 29 | Breadth +0.31 | Activity 100\nBaseline: last 12h\n\n## [residual] 12.3σ volume @ 11¢ — federal funds rate be above 4.00%?\n- ticker: KXFED-27JAN-T4.00\n- venue: kalshi\n- title: Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.00% following the Fed's Jan 27, 2027 meeting?: Above 4.00%\n- price: 11\n- residualVr: 12.335\n- vr: 12.9\n- volume24h: 612\n → why moving? · `GET /api/agent/world?op=explain&item=s-acupq1`\n → volume path · `GET /api/public/market/KXFED-27JAN-T4.00`\n → related · `GET /api/agent/world?op=trail&from=KXFED-27JAN-T4.00`\n\n## [residual] 6.2σ volume @ 24¢ — federal funds rate be above 3.25%?\n- ticker: KXFED-27JAN-T3.25\n- venue: kalshi\n- title: Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.25% following the Fed's Jan 27, 2027 meeting?: Above 3.25%\n- price: 24\n- residualVr: 6.218\n- vr: 6.783\n- volume24h: 1406.76\n → why moving? · `GET /api/agent/world?op=explain&item=s-acu2sd`\n → volume path · `GET /api/public/market/KXFED-27JAN-T3.25`\n → related · `GET /api/agent/world?op=trail&from=KXFED-27JAN-T3.25`\n\n## [residual] 5.6σ volume @ 35¢ — federal funds rate be above 4.00%?\n- ticker: KXFED-27APR-T4.00\n- venue: kalshi\n- title: Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.00% following the Fed's Apr 28, 2027 meeting?: Above 4.00%\n- price: 35\n- residualVr: 5.573\n- vr: 6.138\n- volume24h: 600\n → why moving? · `GET /api/agent/world?op=explain&item=s-om4kw5`\n → volume path · `GET /api/public/market/KXFED-27APR-T4.00`\n → related · `GET /api/agent/world?op=trail&from=KXFED-27APR-T4.00`\n\n## [divergence] Central Bank of Brazil Cut 25 basis p… lagging Who will vote to confirm Kevin Warsh … — 28¢ gap [Fed / monetary policy]\n- lhs: {\"name\":\"Who will vote to confirm Kevin Warsh as Fed Chair?: John Kennedy\",\"Δ\":\"34c\"}\n- rhs: {\"name\":\"Will the Central Bank of Brazil Cut 25 basis points at the April Monetary Policy\",\"Δ\":\"75c\"}\n- gap: 28\n- theme: Fed / monetary policy\n- triggerTicker: 0x5e3e39952dc2156edc0de2cde04d7467ab46f8428cde6963fbd73e1c430b5829\n- laggingTicker: KXCBDECISIONBRAZIL-26APR29-C25\n → why? · `GET /api/agent/world?op=explain&item=s-d1lnvl`\n → Who will vote to confirm Kevin Warsh as Fed Chair?: John Kennedy spread · `GET /api/agent/world?op=dispersion`\n → 6h path · `GET /api/agent/world?op=history&dt=6h`\n\n## [divergence] WTI front-month settle oil price be >… overshooting min WTI front month settle price reac… — 25¢ gap [Oil & energy]\n- lhs: {\"name\":\"Will the minimum WTI front month settle price reach $70 by Dec 31, 2026?: 69.99 \",\"Δ\":\"-21c\"}\n- rhs: {\"name\":\"Will the WTI front-month settle oil price be >91.99 on Apr 20, 2026?: $92 or ab\",\"Δ\":\"49c\"}\n- gap: -25\n- theme: Oil & energy\n- triggerTicker: KXWTIMIN-26DEC31-T70\n- laggingTicker: KXWTI-26APR20-T91.99\n → why? · `GET /api/agent/world?op=explain&item=s-h7m0gw`\n → Will the minimum WTI front month settle price reach $70 by Dec 31, 2026?: 69.99 spread · `GET /api/agent/world?op=dispersion`\n → 6h path · `GET /api/agent/world?op=history&dt=6h`\n\n## [consensus_break] European Central Bank Hike 1-25bps at the Ap…: 3 markets deeply split (σ=44¢, range 94¢)\n- seriesKey: KXCBDECISIONEU\n- markets: [{\"ticker\":\"KXCBDECISIONEU-26APR30-HOLD\",\"title\":\"Will the European Central Bank Maintain current rate at the April ECB Governing Council monetary policy meeting?: Maintain curr...\n- dispersion: 44\n- range: 94\n- implication: markets disagree on resolution level\n → full spread · `GET /api/agent/world?op=dispersion`\n → drill iran · `GET /api/agent/world/iran`\n → why disagree? · `GET /api/agent/world?op=explain&item=s-3gp09b`\n\n## [consensus_break] PA-10 Democratic Primary Winner: 3 markets deeply split (σ=43¢, range 91¢)\n- seriesKey: 232722\n- markets: [{\"ticker\":\"0xc6867b3fa6b81bbb65f85a3a7302757624137a6c128b685e5a4645e1243d01ee\",\"title\":\"PA-10 Democratic Primary Winner: Janelle Stelson\",\"price\":94},{\"ticker\":\"0xead98c2f05aa5...\n- dispersion: 43\n- range: 91\n- implication: markets disagree on resolution level\n → full spread · `GET /api/agent/world?op=dispersion`\n → drill iran · `GET /api/agent/world/iran`\n → why disagree? · `GET /api/agent/world?op=explain&item=s-xr8vi5`\n\n## [consensus_break] Florida Republican Senate Primary Winner: 3 markets deeply split (σ=43¢, range 91¢)\n- seriesKey: 89321\n- markets: [{\"ticker\":\"0x9743ef770e5caafc6a8676aaa87d4303908ebf31f42826cc152948964d0a05d7\",\"title\":\"Florida Republican Senate Primary Winner: Ashley B. Moody\",\"price\":94},{\"ticker\":\"0x81e1...\n- dispersion: 43\n- range: 91\n- implication: markets disagree on resolution level\n → full spread · `GET /api/agent/world?op=dispersion`\n → drill iran · `GET /api/agent/world/iran`\n → why disagree? · `GET /api/agent/world?op=explain&item=s-6wtqre`\n\n## [divergence] Equity-oil split: SPY +1.1% vs Oil -7.3% — demand pulling, supply stable\n- lhs: {\"name\":\"SPY\",\"Δ\":\"+1.1%\"}\n- rhs: {\"name\":\"USO\",\"Δ\":\"-7.3%\"}\n- hypothesis: demand pulling, supply stable\n → why? · `GET /api/agent/world?op=explain&item=s-4075jg`\n → SPY spread · `GET /api/agent/world?op=dispersion`\n → 6h path · `GET /api/agent/world?op=history&dt=6h`\n\n## [resolving_soon] 95% no in 4h — average **gas prices** be above?\n- ticker: KXAAAGASD-26APR19-4.090\n- venue: kalshi\n- title: Will average **gas prices** be above $4.090?: Above 4.090\n- price: 5\n- settlesInHours: 4\n- impliedProbability: 0.05\n- ifYes: resolves TRUE, pays 100¢\n- ifNo: resolves FALSE, pays 0¢\n → price path · `GET /api/public/market/KXAAAGASD-26APR19-4.090`\n → nearby resolutions · `GET /api/agent/world?op=catalyst`\n → siblings · `GET /api/agent/world?op=trail&from=KXAAAGASD-26APR19-4.090`\n\n## Zoom\n- **Iran** — 266 markets → `GET /api/agent/world/iran`\n- **Oil & Energy** — 479 markets → `GET /api/agent/world/oil`\n- **Fed & Rates** — 1287 markets → `GET /api/agent/world/fed-rate`\n- **Recession** — 663 markets → `GET /api/agent/world/recession`\n- **2026 Elections** — 2974 markets → `GET /api/agent/world/election-2026`\n- **Crypto** — 1428 markets → `GET /api/agent/world/bitcoin`\n- **Ukraine/Russia** — 273 markets → `GET /api/agent/world/ukraine`\n- **China/Taiwan** — 220 markets → `GET /api/agent/world/china`\n\n---\nPath: /api/agent/world\nOp: snapshot · Generated in 4404ms", |
