File size: 10,164 Bytes
0d3887b | 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 100 101 102 103 104 105 106 107 108 109 110 111 112 113 114 115 116 117 118 119 120 121 122 123 | {
"date": "2026-05-18",
"timestamp": "2026-05-18T23:50:27.423Z",
"index": {
"disagreement": 47,
"geoRisk": 43,
"breadth": 0.49,
"activity": 29
},
"traditional": [
{
"symbol": "SPY",
"price": 737.65,
"changePct": -1.39
},
{
"symbol": "QQQ",
"price": 706.4,
"changePct": -1.79
},
{
"symbol": "IWM",
"price": 276.72,
"changePct": -2.65
},
{
"symbol": "VIXY",
"price": 27.06,
"changePct": 1.35
},
{
"symbol": "SHY",
"price": 82.08,
"changePct": -0.09
},
{
"symbol": "IEF",
"price": 93.5,
"changePct": -0.81
},
{
"symbol": "TLT",
"price": 83.66,
"changePct": -1.51
},
{
"symbol": "HYG",
"price": 79.57,
"changePct": -0.36
},
{
"symbol": "GLD",
"price": 417.33,
"changePct": -2.27
},
{
"symbol": "USO",
"price": 147.99,
"changePct": 4.13
},
{
"symbol": "UNG",
"price": 11.33,
"changePct": 1.25
},
{
"symbol": "CPER",
"price": 38.17,
"changePct": -4.64
},
{
"symbol": "UUP",
"price": 27.77,
"changePct": 0.58
},
{
"symbol": "FXE",
"price": 107.21,
"changePct": -0.42
},
{
"symbol": "XLE",
"price": 59.43,
"changePct": 2.32
},
{
"symbol": "EEM",
"price": 65.05,
"changePct": -3.53
},
{
"symbol": "IBIT",
"price": 44.79,
"changePct": -2.9
},
{
"symbol": "ETHE",
"price": 18.01,
"changePct": -3.33
}
],
"topics": [],
"topEdges": [],
"divergences": [
{
"description": "China GDP growth rate YoY for Q2 be a… lagging China unemployment rate in May? — 56¢ gap [US fiscal / recession]",
"implication": "",
"affectedTickers": []
},
{
"description": "Federal Reserve raise the target rang… overshooting rate of core CPI inflation be above 2… — 41¢ gap [Fed / monetary policy]",
"implication": "",
"affectedTickers": []
},
{
"description": "Thomas Massie receive between 48% and… lagging Keisha Lance Bottoms and no one else … — 40¢ gap [US Elections]",
"implication": "",
"affectedTickers": []
}
],
"markdown": "# World (2026-05-18 23:31 UTC)\nRegime: Broad up-skew — markets resolving toward higher probability\nSimpleFunctions Index: Disagree 42 | GeoRisk 43 | Breadth +0.50 | Activity 43\nBaseline: last 12h\n\n## [residual] 11.4σ volume @ 88¢ — rate of CPI inflation be above 4.2% for the year …\n- ticker: KXCPIYOY-26JUN-T4.2\n- venue: kalshi\n- title: Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 4.2% for the year ending in June 2026?: Above 4.2%\n- price: 88\n- residualVr: 11.357\n- vr: 11.633\n- volume24h: 574.9\n → why moving? · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=explain&item=s-3v3nty`\n → volume path · `GET /api/public/market/KXCPIYOY-26JUN-T4.2`\n → related · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=trail&from=KXCPIYOY-26JUN-T4.2`\n\n## [divergence] China GDP growth rate YoY for Q2 be a… lagging China unemployment rate in May? — 56¢ gap [US fiscal / recession]\n- lhs: {\"name\":\"China unemployment rate in May 2026?: Above 5.0%\",\"Δ\":\"71c\"}\n- rhs: {\"name\":\"Will China GDP growth rate YoY for Q2 2026 be above 4.6%?: Above 4.6%\",\"Δ\":\"24c\"}\n- gap: 56\n- theme: US fiscal / recession\n- triggerTicker: KXUE-CHN26MAY-5.0\n- laggingTicker: KXCHGDPYOY-26JUL15-T4.6\n → why? · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=explain&item=s-r8s9pb`\n → China unemployment rate in May 2026?: Above 5.0% spread · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=dispersion`\n → 6h path · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=history&dt=6h`\n\n## [divergence] Federal Reserve raise the target rang… overshooting rate of core CPI inflation be above 2… — 41¢ gap [Fed / monetary policy]\n- lhs: {\"name\":\"Will the rate of core CPI inflation be above 2.2% for the year ending in June 20\",\"Δ\":\"-39c\"}\n- rhs: {\"name\":\"Will the Federal Reserve raise the target range for the federal funds rate befor\",\"Δ\":\"33c\"}\n- gap: -41\n- theme: Fed / monetary policy\n- triggerTicker: KXCPICOREYOY-26JUN-T2.2\n- laggingTicker: KXCBRATEHIKE-27-FED\n → why? · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=explain&item=s-q6jzdl`\n → Will the rate of core CPI inflation be above 2.2% for the year ending in June 20 spread · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=dispersion`\n → 6h path · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=history&dt=6h`\n\n## [divergence] Thomas Massie receive between 48% and… lagging Keisha Lance Bottoms and no one else … — 40¢ gap [US Elections]\n- lhs: {\"name\":\"Will Keisha Lance Bottoms and no one else advance in the 2026 Georgia Democratic\",\"Δ\":\"60c\"}\n- rhs: {\"name\":\"Will Thomas Massie receive between 48% and 51% of the popular vote in the 2026 K\",\"Δ\":\"21c\"}\n- gap: 40\n- theme: US Elections\n- triggerTicker: KXPRIMARYMATCHUP-GOVGANOMD26-KBOTNOONE\n- laggingTicker: KXVOTEPRIMARY-KY4R26TMASTMAS-49\n → why? · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=explain&item=s-dcgs86`\n → Will Keisha Lance Bottoms and no one else advance in the 2026 Georgia Democratic spread · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=dispersion`\n → 6h path · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=history&dt=6h`\n\n## [residual] 3.9σ volume @ 92¢ — rate of CPI inflation be above 4.0% for the year …\n- ticker: KXCPIYOY-26JUN-T4.0\n- venue: kalshi\n- title: Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 4.0% for the year ending in June 2026?: Above 4.0%\n- price: 92\n- residualVr: 3.908\n- vr: 4.184\n- volume24h: 515\n → why moving? · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=explain&item=s-3v3ntw`\n → volume path · `GET /api/public/market/KXCPIYOY-26JUN-T4.0`\n → related · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=trail&from=KXCPIYOY-26JUN-T4.0`\n\n## [consensus_break] #1 Show on Netflix have at least 21 million …: 7 markets deeply split (σ=45¢, range 94¢)\n- seriesKey: KXNETFLIXTOPVIEWSTV\n- markets: [{\"ticker\":\"KXNETFLIXTOPVIEWSTV-26MAY18-12\",\"title\":\"Will the #1 Show on Netflix have at least 12 million views?: At least 12 million\",\"price\":95},{\"ticker\":\"KXNETFLIXTOPVIEWSTV...\n- dispersion: 45\n- range: 94\n- implication: markets disagree on resolution level\n → full spread · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=dispersion`\n → why disagree? · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=explain&item=s-9o0kg9`\n\n## [consensus_break] Euro area GDP growth rate QoQ flash for Q1 b…: 3 markets deeply split (σ=44¢, range 93¢)\n- seriesKey: KXEZGDPQOQF\n- markets: [{\"ticker\":\"KXEZGDPQOQF-26JUN05-T-0.1\",\"title\":\"Will Euro area GDP growth rate QoQ flash for Q1 2026 be above -0.1%?: Above -0.1%\",\"price\":97},{\"ticker\":\"KXEZGDPQOQF-26JUN05-T0....\n- dispersion: 44\n- range: 93\n- implication: markets disagree on resolution level\n → full spread · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=dispersion`\n → why disagree? · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=explain&item=s-9zo5cd`\n\n## [consensus_break] at least 2 judges be confirmed in May?: 3 markets deeply split (σ=43¢, range 92¢)\n- seriesKey: KXJUDGECOUNT\n- markets: [{\"ticker\":\"KXJUDGECOUNT-26MAY-0\",\"title\":\"Will at least 1 judges be confirmed in May 2026?: At least 1\",\"price\":95},{\"ticker\":\"KXJUDGECOUNT-26MAY-1\",\"title\":\"Will at least 2 ju...\n- dispersion: 43\n- range: 92\n- implication: markets disagree on resolution level\n → full spread · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=dispersion`\n → why disagree? · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=explain&item=s-4ed4u4`\n\n## [regime_shift] geopolitical tension rising: GeoRisk 19→43 (+24)\n- baselineAt: 2026-05-18T11:45:00.063Z\n- driver: geopolitics\n- primaryMover: GeoRisk\n- moves: [{\"k\":\"GeoRisk\",\"from\":19,\"to\":43,\"Δ\":24,\"unit\":\"\"}]\n- atBaseline: {\"disagreement\":47,\"geoRisk\":19,\"breadth\":0.45,\"activity\":29}\n- now: {\"disagreement\":42,\"geoRisk\":43,\"breadth\":0.5,\"activity\":43}\n → drill into geopolitics · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/geopolitics`\n → 24h path · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=history&dt=24h`\n\n## [resolving_soon] 95% no in 4h — average **gas prices** be above?\n- ticker: KXAAAGASD-26MAY19-4.550\n- venue: kalshi\n- title: Will average **gas prices** be above $4.550?: Above 4.550\n- price: 5\n- settlesInHours: 4\n- impliedProbability: 0.05\n- ifYes: resolves TRUE, pays 100¢\n- ifNo: resolves FALSE, pays 0¢\n → price path · `GET /api/public/market/KXAAAGASD-26MAY19-4.550`\n → nearby resolutions · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=catalyst`\n → siblings · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=trail&from=KXAAAGASD-26MAY19-4.550`\n\n## Zoom\n- **Iran** — 224 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/iran`\n- **Oil & Energy** — 470 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/oil`\n- **Fed & Rates** — 1144 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/fed-rate`\n- **Recession** — 645 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/recession`\n- **2026 Elections** — 3271 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/election-2026`\n- **Crypto** — 1069 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/bitcoin`\n- **Ukraine/Russia** — 297 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/ukraine`\n- **China/Taiwan** — 364 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/china`\n\n---\nPath: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world\nOp: snapshot · Generated in 2844ms",
"markdownTokenEstimate": 1829
} |