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values | pred_subcategory
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values |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
clOkd1NrKzQN5guM9nLj
|
will-jjk-end-in-2024
|
Will JJK end in 2024?
| null | 1,715,843,990,645
| 1,727,933,135,591
| 1,727,933,135,591
|
YES
| 0.92
| 1,363.089927
|
Entertainment
|
Movies & Television
|
4cMRGJSfzZMbVrllzLLS
|
who-will-be-elected-to-be-us-presid
|
Who will be elected to be US President in 2024? (Robert F. Kennedy Jr.)
| null | 1,685,917,894,139
| 1,730,793,600,000
| 1,730,990,536,186
|
NO
| 0.023952
| 27,453.876856
|
Politics
|
Elections & Campaigns
|
X0vFQqL0UGAp3TMe10LE
|
will-caltrain-electrification-finis-293a770aaf8c
|
Will Caltrain electrification finish by end of 2025?
| null | 1,674,096,108,249
| 1,734,970,297,482
| 1,734,970,297,482
|
YES
| 0.980993
| 8,135.560534
|
Politics
|
Domestic Policy
|
kjxaa7tdrr
|
will-any-world-leaders-be-assassina
|
Will any world leaders be assassinated by the end of 2024?
| null | 1,720,620,420,715
| 1,735,672,436,685
| 1,735,672,436,685
|
NO
| 0.037062
| 10,722.333923
|
Geopolitics
|
Global Conflicts
|
qXu1vRB5aeYAgquhqhzr
|
10-us-court-rule-that-generative-ai
|
10) U.S. court rule that generative AI models trained on the internet represent a violation of copyright. [Abbreviated]
| null | 1,703,511,788,704
| 1,734,453,573,314
| 1,734,453,573,314
|
NO
| 0.010037
| 11,062.297784
|
Technology
|
Emerging Technologies
|
zU8S84gXnb5p7ABiJOal
|
will-any-hamas-terrorists-be-arrest
|
Will any Hamas terrorists be arrested in the US in the next year? (Oct 8th, 2024)
| null | 1,697,138,447,313
| 1,729,058,340,000
| 1,729,083,918,668
|
NO
| 0.01
| 9,342.381742
|
Geopolitics
|
Global Conflicts
|
I1GaMjmrugPnE9kVD8QG
|
nfl-week-14-dec-8-2024-will-the-los
|
NFL Week 14 (Dec 8 2024): Will the Los Angeles Rams (home) beat the Buffalo Bills (away)?
| null | 1,715,834,532,721
| 1,733,865,900,000
| 1,735,276,188,910
|
YES
| 0.99
| 1,282.227913
|
Sports
|
Professional Sports
|
pYf3hMhhYYvAFqmwoVUR
|
will-september-2024-be-the-hottest
|
Will September 2024 be the hottest September on record in the US?
| null | 1,705,193,289,758
| 1,727,909,940,000
| 1,728,183,952,762
|
NO
| 0.01
| 1,647.267632
|
Politics
|
Public Policy & Social Issues
|
nlejlk23ms
|
will-the-milwaukee-brewers-play-in
|
Will the Milwaukee Brewers play in the 2024 World Series?
| null | 1,721,837,570,769
| 1,728,045,764,092
| 1,728,045,764,092
|
NO
| 0.01
| 10,726.8826
|
Sports
|
Professional Sports
|
I9tnLctSdO
|
will-polymarket-a-volume-of-4-billi
|
Will Polymarket have a total volume of $4 billion on US 2024 elections?
| null | 1,730,813,255,986
| 1,730,917,302,076
| 1,730,917,302,076
|
NO
| 0.086694
| 6,804.255967
|
Politics
|
Elections & Campaigns
|
v9L9JJ2Ph5dzmS4brDrH
|
have-they-found-amelia-earharts-pla
|
Have they found Amelia Earhart's plane?
| null | 1,706,647,745,065
| 1,730,827,211,759
| 1,730,827,211,759
|
NO
| 0.01
| 10,254.887928
|
Sports
|
Individual Sports
|
HD0dOwjnrmu6c8UZWdUL
|
is-the-firing-of-sam-altman-and-the
|
Is the firing of Sam Altman and the current situation at OpenAI mainly a consequence of an internal breakthrough?
| null | 1,700,447,173,083
| 1,732,078,740,000
| 1,734,818,192,444
|
NO
| 0.062343
| 3,960.311539
|
Technology
|
Tech Industry & Business
|
mslWqzdpHHBdQzetdotS
|
at-the-end-of-2024-will-the-most-us-2258f168d2da
|
At the end of 2024 will the most commonly used card in Standard Magic the Gathering decks be a Land card? (non-Basic)
| null | 1,705,677,151,376
| 1,735,671,197,054
| 1,735,671,197,054
|
NO
| 0.017662
| 9,576.490825
|
Entertainment
|
Gaming
|
KLdcg1uSFALrUxcnVLNk
|
will-the-myanmar-junta-relinquish-p
|
Will the Myanmar junta relinquish power before October 2024?
| null | 1,696,244,958,482
| 1,727,779,239,812
| 1,727,779,239,812
|
NO
| 0.01
| 1,547.860364
|
Geopolitics
|
Regional Affairs
|
J4tzFfTgsGSSQxrCT75N
|
will-reddit-dip-below-their-ipo-pri
|
Will Reddit dip below their IPO price of $34 before October 2024?
| null | 1,711,070,594,482
| 1,727,704,740,000
| 1,728,807,703,698
|
NO
| 0.01
| 2,017.089097
|
Finance
|
Markets & Trading
|
rzgmsexsra
|
will-doug-emhoff-be-a-guest-on-the
|
Will Doug Emhoff be a guest on the Lex Fridman Podcast before election day 2024?
| null | 1,725,512,819,523
| 1,730,805,525,542
| 1,730,805,525,542
|
NO
| 0.010012
| 1,042.809388
|
Politics
|
Elections & Campaigns
|
qHvlpClQ3NOnS3yD46oB
|
f1-2024-will-lewis-hamilton-finish
|
F1 2024 - Will Lewis Hamilton finish ahead of George Russell in the WDC?
| null | 1,709,117,875,090
| 1,733,728,447,316
| 1,733,728,447,316
|
NO
| 0.01
| 3,328.556971
|
Sports
|
Individual Sports
|
wu0mzxhtjz
|
will-hezbollahs-exploding-pagers-be
|
Will Hezbollah's exploding pagers be shown to have explosive material added beyond what is in a normal battery?
| null | 1,726,766,779,985
| 1,728,313,199,116
| 1,728,313,199,116
|
YES
| 0.99
| 12,771.368895
|
Geopolitics
|
Global Conflicts
|
8h90olm50r
|
will-pavel-durov-be-forced-to-spend
|
Will Pavel Durov be Forced to spend Christmas in France?
| null | 1,724,883,661,574
| 1,735,134,418,759
| 1,735,134,418,759
|
YES
| 0.982844
| 8,678.201596
|
Politics
|
International Relations
|
dk6ppdpyj3
|
will-macron-give-a-speech-inside-th
|
Will Macron give a speech inside the Notre Dame cathedral during its re-opening?
| null | 1,727,116,340,395
| 1,733,606,851,588
| 1,733,606,851,588
|
YES
| 0.988607
| 1,167
|
Politics
|
Public Policy & Social Issues
|
K1qxS49ebDtSbSkzuZn0
|
will-kizaru-awaken-his-devil-fruit
|
WILL Kizaru Awaken His Devil Fruit On Egghead?
| null | 1,708,041,822,651
| 1,719,806,340,000
| 1,732,315,487,297
|
NO
| 0.174443
| 7,279.077983
|
Entertainment
|
Movies & Television
|
1u8gdhl386
|
will-trump-win-nevada-in-the-2024-p
|
Will Trump win Nevada in the 2024 Presidential Election?
| null | 1,727,304,276,433
| 1,731,050,197,326
| 1,731,050,197,326
|
YES
| 0.990366
| 357,999.961514
|
Politics
|
Elections & Campaigns
|
9oc0wz833r
|
will-manifold-have-10000-twitterx-f
|
Will Manifold have 10,000 Twitter/X followers before Election Day (Nov 5)?
| null | 1,724,257,306,953
| 1,730,825,262,762
| 1,730,825,262,762
|
NO
| 0.017195
| 54,615.383847
|
Politics
|
Elections & Campaigns
|
2i4y8488ez
|
will-trump-win-arizona-in-the-2024
|
Will Trump win Arizona in the 2024 Presidential Election?
| null | 1,727,304,119,385
| 1,731,050,482,430
| 1,731,050,482,430
|
YES
| 0.993746
| 409,898.625694
|
Politics
|
Elections & Campaigns
|
qhzQgRgnNt
|
will-political-markets-stop-dominat
|
Will political markets stop dominating Manifold by next month.
| null | 1,731,276,165,674
| 1,734,533,565,210
| 1,734,533,565,210
|
YES
| 0.367661
| 1,824.084717
|
Politics
|
Political Parties & Ideologies
|
miyw2eiqvt
|
will-ukraine-take-control-of-the-ku-a5cxqghsz7
|
Will Ukraine take control of the Kursk Nuclear Power Plant by the end of this month?
| null | 1,725,296,647,237
| 1,727,733,540,000
| 1,727,734,562,817
|
NO
| 0.01
| 156,027.793186
|
Geopolitics
|
Global Conflicts
|
NZuLqNqURy
|
daily-coinflip-6ZpnqAC6PP
|
Daily coinflip
| null | 1,730,696,863,606
| 1,730,869,140,000
| 1,730,875,725,312
|
NO
| 0.51
| 10,483.257889
|
Sports
|
Sports Culture & Recreation
|
ZcDnZfa89rPcY4eOiPck
|
will-a-republican-win-pennsylvania-804816d5e30f
|
Will a Republican win Pennsylvania in the 2024 POTUS election?
| null | 1,686,273,470,977
| 1,730,902,425,248
| 1,730,902,425,248
|
YES
| 0.99
| 2,519.321774
|
Politics
|
Elections & Campaigns
|
IhHxbCxzWHD1cFU4GmD9
|
will-a-test-subject-die-at-neuralli
|
Will a test subject die at Neurallink in 2024?
| null | 1,709,304,324,448
| 1,735,685,940,000
| 1,735,686,300,092
|
NO
| 0.056718
| 3,502.637805
|
Technology
|
Emerging Technologies
|
4XLAG4riFXclnnqxAXG7
|
bayern-munich-202425-to-win-any-dom
|
Bayern Munich 2024/25: to win any Domestic Cup, any European Cup, and any player with ≥41 Bundesliga goals
| null | 1,716,025,643,841
| 1,735,233,113,914
| 1,735,233,113,914
|
NO
| 0.034707
| 4,502
|
Sports
|
Professional Sports
|
6n2t81eboi
|
will-there-be-any-break-between-one-hw1zsn3fzy
|
Will there be any break between One Piece chapters 1128 and 1129?
| null | 1,726,522,330,973
| 1,727,813,833,520
| 1,727,813,836,521
|
NO
| 0.03
| 4,759
|
Entertainment
|
Books & Literature
|
pabt9g6gtk
|
will-donald-trump-drop-out-of-the-p-f6ek0sgypv
|
Will Donald Trump drop out of the presidential election for any reason before Nov 5th ?
| null | 1,723,067,604,330
| 1,730,850,482,746
| 1,730,850,482,746
|
NO
| 0.008912
| 123,238.790106
|
Politics
|
Elections & Campaigns
|
bKXOSz6PnXjngfP3fsVe
|
will-jimmy-carter-outlive-manifold
|
Will Jimmy Carter outlive Manifold Markets?
| null | 1,713,931,936,979
| 1,735,516,255,997
| 1,735,516,255,997
|
NO
| 0.011139
| 10,738.406811
|
Politics
|
Elections & Campaigns
|
U0z2ry6EaEsTZLvZ6qqf
|
will-this-tweet-hold-up-sora-will-s
|
will this tweet hold up: Sora will sign an exclusive deal with Sony Pictures
| null | 1,710,207,299,593
| 1,733,794,089,070
| 1,733,794,089,070
|
NO
| 0.063995
| 1,182.551765
|
Entertainment
|
Movies & Television
|
Q2c0EZhg25
|
daily-coinflip-ESsZuhPCcZ
|
Daily coinflip
| null | 1,731,296,466,506
| 1,731,385,800,000
| 1,731,418,176,695
|
YES
| 0.506443
| 4,782.635363
|
Sports
|
Sports Culture & Recreation
|
qg9lv8ljb0
|
will-kamala-harriss-highest-polling
|
Will Kamala Harris's highest polling this election cycle occur during or just after the Democratic National Convention?
| null | 1,722,101,136,992
| 1,724,137,140,000
| 1,730,787,980,854
|
YES
| 0.353282
| 3,518.524192
|
Politics
|
Elections & Campaigns
|
1n1yFBEOk5JmsB3MC9Gw
|
will-israel-attack-at-least-one-of
|
Will Israel attack at least one of Iran's nuclear facilities by year-end 2024?
| null | 1,713,143,415,237
| 1,732,105,786,080
| 1,732,105,786,080
|
YES
| 0.85796
| 50,775.017788
|
Geopolitics
|
Global Conflicts
|
00BD9JD5ZG3MjzfqHsux
|
is-the-lean-kernel-unsound
|
Will a soundness hole be discovered in lean4checker?
| null | 1,695,821,239,702
| 1,735,649,940,000
| 1,735,686,112,247
|
NO
| 0.088639
| 7,306.25493
|
Technology
|
Computing & Software
|
mNvS2QczNn0VCkB7rh65
|
will-iran-detonate-a-nuclear-weapon-ff7d7ad0446e
|
Will Iran detonate a nuclear weapon before Oct 2024?
| null | 1,705,843,818,735
| 1,728,202,753,714
| 1,728,202,753,714
|
NO
| 0.01
| 6,741.054985
|
Geopolitics
|
Global Conflicts
|
t6RsIIsLcO
|
will-this-market-close-above-60-chh9A6E58I
|
Will this market close above 60%
| null | 1,732,405,497,266
| 1,733,093,940,000
| 1,733,094,095,018
|
YES
| 0.985338
| 1,031.055355
|
Finance
|
Markets & Trading
|
evNABatwCVTSYGv14z3Y
|
will-vladimir-putin-be-alive-on-dec
|
Will Vladimir Putin be alive on December 21st, 2024?
| null | 1,689,336,696,149
| 1,734,847,200,000
| 1,734,904,012,639
|
YES
| 0.99
| 102,074.634271
|
Geopolitics
|
Global Conflicts
|
ePI08ks2TDkVbxJ02IHl
|
shrek-5-releases-in-2024
|
Shrek 5 releases in 2024
| null | 1,705,681,163,236
| 1,735,640,809,321
| 1,735,640,809,321
|
NO
| 0.01
| 1,337.819898
|
Entertainment
|
Movies & Television
|
FLtHUn96T71ZPqDTpBGf
|
will-the-total-market-capitalizatio
|
Will the total market capitalization of all cryptocurrencies exceed $3 trillion USD by the end of 2024?
| null | 1,697,914,446,986
| 1,734,390,999,602
| 1,734,390,999,602
|
YES
| 0.952589
| 1,482.665839
|
Finance
|
Markets & Trading
|
LEhn8Itu50
|
will-openai-launch-or-announce-some
|
Will OpenAI launch or announce something new on ChatGPT’s anniversary tomorrow?
| null | 1,732,899,783,286
| 1,733,058,399,646
| 1,733,058,399,646
|
NO
| 0.044174
| 10,090.241449
|
Technology
|
Emerging Technologies
|
0j3PFTOngtJcz2uxQmpX
|
will-any-manifold-user-withdraw-at
|
Will any Manifold user withdraw at least $1,000 from Manifold "sweepcash" in 2024?
| null | 1,713,931,650,595
| 1,729,225,742,935
| 1,729,225,742,935
|
YES
| 0.99
| 41,736.669697
|
Finance
|
Personal Finance
|
o6fnOS2MFC4pi7OECcq6
|
will-republicans-win-the-senate-in
|
Will Republicans win the Senate in the 2024 elections?
| null | 1,670,516,629,852
| 1,730,946,807,565
| 1,730,946,807,565
|
YES
| 0.99
| 18,260.366172
|
Politics
|
Elections & Campaigns
|
I4Grr89G1OO9lNSULQpU
|
will-any-us-senate-election-in-2024
|
Will any U.S. Senate election in 2024 be decided by less than 1%?
| null | 1,689,382,476,245
| 1,732,943,309,074
| 1,732,943,309,074
|
YES
| 0.99
| 13,024.93013
|
Politics
|
Elections & Campaigns
|
delgzszzkG4IsoEFNxCD
|
nfl-week-9-nov-3-2024-will-the-seat
|
NFL Week 9 (Nov 3 2024): Will the Seattle Seahawks (home) beat the Los Angeles Rams (away)?
| null | 1,715,834,191,878
| 1,730,836,319,804
| 1,730,836,319,804
|
NO
| 0.011881
| 1,367.128352
|
Sports
|
Professional Sports
|
vgguj7ayip
|
will-the-israelis-bomb-iran-before
|
Will the Israelis bomb Iran before 2025?
| null | 1,727,701,567,343
| 1,729,935,930,930
| 1,729,935,930,930
|
YES
| 0.99
| 17,558.516747
|
Geopolitics
|
Global Conflicts
|
UitJbJIPmkakW2hLgTFP
|
will-a-democrat-win-the-2024-us-sen-acee7113d48b
|
Will a Democrat win the 2024 US Senate election in Montana?
| null | 1,670,677,349,540
| 1,730,913,909,275
| 1,730,913,909,275
|
NO
| 0.026476
| 75,397.302536
|
Politics
|
Elections & Campaigns
|
TRJ3UVJ9lYEphPys4Q8C
|
will-i-play-at-least-50-fiderated-c
|
Will I play at least 50 FIDE-rated classical games this year?
| null | 1,707,851,685,680
| 1,730,264,387,286
| 1,730,264,387,286
|
NO
| 0.451201
| 1,073.748399
|
Sports
|
Individual Sports
|
c3pg77npaq
|
will-netflix-reverse-its-illadvised
|
Will Netflix reverse its ill-advised decision to cast Lera Abova in One Piece?
| null | 1,726,999,787,548
| 1,732,624,134,580
| 1,732,624,134,580
|
NO
| 0.042072
| 4,599.090487
|
Entertainment
|
Movies & Television
|
j57kg99wed
|
will-wimipa-all-be-won-by-the-same
|
Will WI/MI/PA all be won by the same candidate?
| null | 1,718,601,081,326
| 1,731,218,340,000
| 1,731,295,614,355
|
YES
| 0.99
| 1,556.400692
|
Politics
|
Elections & Campaigns
|
VydVZH2qxHWEr6cdL8BA
|
will-a-democrat-win-the-2024-presid-6d04e99d80fa
|
Will a democrat win the 2024 presidential election in North Carolina?
| null | 1,670,815,269,432
| 1,731,292,946,889
| 1,731,292,946,889
|
NO
| 0.009742
| 17,598.172261
|
Politics
|
Elections & Campaigns
|
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