Daily Papers

Dense prediction tasks, such as semantic segmentation, depth estimation, and surface normal prediction, can be easily formulated as per-pixel classification (discrete outputs) or regression (continuous outputs). This per-pixel prediction paradigm has remained popular due to the prevalence of fully convolutional networks. However, on the recent frontier of segmentation task, the community has been witnessing a shift of paradigm from per-pixel prediction to cluster-prediction with the emergence of transformer architectures, particularly the mask transformers, which directly predicts a label for a mask instead of a pixel. Despite this shift, methods based on the per-pixel prediction paradigm still dominate the benchmarks on the other dense prediction tasks that require continuous outputs, such as depth estimation and surface normal prediction. Motivated by the success of DORN and AdaBins in depth estimation, achieved by discretizing the continuous output space, we propose to generalize the cluster-prediction based method to general dense prediction tasks. This allows us to unify dense prediction tasks with the mask transformer framework. Remarkably, the resulting model PolyMaX demonstrates state-of-the-art performance on three benchmarks of NYUD-v2 dataset. We hope our simple yet effective design can inspire more research on exploiting mask transformers for more dense prediction tasks. Code and model will be made available.

We propose a novel method called SHS-Net for oriented normal estimation of point clouds by learning signed hyper surfaces, which can accurately predict normals with global consistent orientation from various point clouds. Almost all existing methods estimate oriented normals through a two-stage pipeline, i.e., unoriented normal estimation and normal orientation, and each step is implemented by a separate algorithm. However, previous methods are sensitive to parameter settings, resulting in poor results from point clouds with noise, density variations and complex geometries. In this work, we introduce signed hyper surfaces (SHS), which are parameterized by multi-layer perceptron (MLP) layers, to learn to estimate oriented normals from point clouds in an end-to-end manner. The signed hyper surfaces are implicitly learned in a high-dimensional feature space where the local and global information is aggregated. Specifically, we introduce a patch encoding module and a shape encoding module to encode a 3D point cloud into a local latent code and a global latent code, respectively. Then, an attention-weighted normal prediction module is proposed as a decoder, which takes the local and global latent codes as input to predict oriented normals. Experimental results show that our SHS-Net outperforms the state-of-the-art methods in both unoriented and oriented normal estimation on the widely used benchmarks. The code, data and pretrained models are publicly available.

Recovering pixel-wise geometric properties from a single image is fundamentally ill-posed due to appearance ambiguity and non-injective mappings between 2D observations and 3D structures. While discriminative regression models achieve strong performance through large-scale supervision, their success is bounded by the scale, quality and diversity of available data and limited physical reasoning. Recent diffusion models exhibit powerful world priors that encode geometry and semantics learned from massive image-text data, yet directly reusing their stochastic generative formulation is suboptimal for deterministic geometric inference: the former is optimized for diverse and high-fidelity image generation, whereas the latter requires stable and accurate predictions. In this work, we propose Lotus-2, a two-stage deterministic framework for stable, accurate and fine-grained geometric dense prediction, aiming to provide an optimal adaption protocol to fully exploit the pre-trained generative priors. Specifically, in the first stage, the core predictor employs a single-step deterministic formulation with a clean-data objective and a lightweight local continuity module (LCM) to generate globally coherent structures without grid artifacts. In the second stage, the detail sharpener performs a constrained multi-step rectified-flow refinement within the manifold defined by the core predictor, enhancing fine-grained geometry through noise-free deterministic flow matching. Using only 59K training samples, less than 1% of existing large-scale datasets, Lotus-2 establishes new state-of-the-art results in monocular depth estimation and highly competitive surface normal prediction. These results demonstrate that diffusion models can serve as deterministic world priors, enabling high-quality geometric reasoning beyond traditional discriminative and generative paradigms.

Surface reconstruction from multi-view images is a challenging task, with solutions often requiring a large number of sampled images with high overlap. We seek to develop a method for few-view reconstruction, for the case of the human foot. To solve this task, we must extract rich geometric cues from RGB images, before carefully fusing them into a final 3D object. Our FOUND approach tackles this, with 4 main contributions: (i) SynFoot, a synthetic dataset of 50,000 photorealistic foot images, paired with ground truth surface normals and keypoints; (ii) an uncertainty-aware surface normal predictor trained on our synthetic dataset; (iii) an optimization scheme for fitting a generative foot model to a series of images; and (iv) a benchmark dataset of calibrated images and high resolution ground truth geometry. We show that our normal predictor outperforms all off-the-shelf equivalents significantly on real images, and our optimization scheme outperforms state-of-the-art photogrammetry pipelines, especially for a few-view setting. We release our synthetic dataset and baseline 3D scans to the research community.

We introduce GeoWizard, a new generative foundation model designed for estimating geometric attributes, e.g., depth and normals, from single images. While significant research has already been conducted in this area, the progress has been substantially limited by the low diversity and poor quality of publicly available datasets. As a result, the prior works either are constrained to limited scenarios or suffer from the inability to capture geometric details. In this paper, we demonstrate that generative models, as opposed to traditional discriminative models (e.g., CNNs and Transformers), can effectively address the inherently ill-posed problem. We further show that leveraging diffusion priors can markedly improve generalization, detail preservation, and efficiency in resource usage. Specifically, we extend the original stable diffusion model to jointly predict depth and normal, allowing mutual information exchange and high consistency between the two representations. More importantly, we propose a simple yet effective strategy to segregate the complex data distribution of various scenes into distinct sub-distributions. This strategy enables our model to recognize different scene layouts, capturing 3D geometry with remarkable fidelity. GeoWizard sets new benchmarks for zero-shot depth and normal prediction, significantly enhancing many downstream applications such as 3D reconstruction, 2D content creation, and novel viewpoint synthesis.

Surface reconstruction has been widely studied in computer vision and graphics. However, existing surface reconstruction works struggle to recover accurate scene geometry when the input views are extremely sparse. To address this issue, we propose MeshSplat, a generalizable sparse-view surface reconstruction framework via Gaussian Splatting. Our key idea is to leverage 2DGS as a bridge, which connects novel view synthesis to learned geometric priors and then transfers these priors to achieve surface reconstruction. Specifically, we incorporate a feed-forward network to predict per-view pixel-aligned 2DGS, which enables the network to synthesize novel view images and thus eliminates the need for direct 3D ground-truth supervision. To improve the accuracy of 2DGS position and orientation prediction, we propose a Weighted Chamfer Distance Loss to regularize the depth maps, especially in overlapping areas of input views, and also a normal prediction network to align the orientation of 2DGS with normal vectors predicted by a monocular normal estimator. Extensive experiments validate the effectiveness of our proposed improvement, demonstrating that our method achieves state-of-the-art performance in generalizable sparse-view mesh reconstruction tasks. Project Page: https://hanzhichang.github.io/meshsplat_web

We introduce Orchid, a unified latent diffusion model that learns a joint appearance-geometry prior to generate color, depth, and surface normal images in a single diffusion process. This unified approach is more efficient and coherent than current pipelines that use separate models for appearance and geometry. Orchid is versatile - it directly generates color, depth, and normal images from text, supports joint monocular depth and normal estimation with color-conditioned finetuning, and seamlessly inpaints large 3D regions by sampling from the joint distribution. It leverages a novel Variational Autoencoder (VAE) that jointly encodes RGB, relative depth, and surface normals into a shared latent space, combined with a latent diffusion model that denoises these latents. Our extensive experiments demonstrate that Orchid delivers competitive performance against SOTA task-specific methods for geometry prediction, even surpassing them in normal-prediction accuracy and depth-normal consistency. It also inpaints color-depth-normal images jointly, with more qualitative realism than existing multi-step methods.

Access to large, diverse RGB-D datasets is critical for training RGB-D scene understanding algorithms. However, existing datasets still cover only a limited number of views or a restricted scale of spaces. In this paper, we introduce Matterport3D, a large-scale RGB-D dataset containing 10,800 panoramic views from 194,400 RGB-D images of 90 building-scale scenes. Annotations are provided with surface reconstructions, camera poses, and 2D and 3D semantic segmentations. The precise global alignment and comprehensive, diverse panoramic set of views over entire buildings enable a variety of supervised and self-supervised computer vision tasks, including keypoint matching, view overlap prediction, normal prediction from color, semantic segmentation, and region classification.

We present Sapiens, a family of models for four fundamental human-centric vision tasks - 2D pose estimation, body-part segmentation, depth estimation, and surface normal prediction. Our models natively support 1K high-resolution inference and are extremely easy to adapt for individual tasks by simply fine-tuning models pretrained on over 300 million in-the-wild human images. We observe that, given the same computational budget, self-supervised pretraining on a curated dataset of human images significantly boosts the performance for a diverse set of human-centric tasks. The resulting models exhibit remarkable generalization to in-the-wild data, even when labeled data is scarce or entirely synthetic. Our simple model design also brings scalability - model performance across tasks improves as we scale the number of parameters from 0.3 to 2 billion. Sapiens consistently surpasses existing baselines across various human-centric benchmarks. We achieve significant improvements over the prior state-of-the-art on Humans-5K (pose) by 7.6 mAP, Humans-2K (part-seg) by 17.1 mIoU, Hi4D (depth) by 22.4% relative RMSE, and THuman2 (normal) by 53.5% relative angular error.

Recent advances in language and vision have demonstrated that scaling up model capacity consistently improves performance across diverse tasks. In 3D visual geometry reconstruction, large-scale training has likewise proven effective for learning versatile representations. However, further scaling of 3D models is challenging due to the complexity of geometric supervision and the diversity of 3D data. To overcome these limitations, we propose MoRE, a dense 3D visual foundation model based on a Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) architecture that dynamically routes features to task-specific experts, allowing them to specialize in complementary data aspects and enhance both scalability and adaptability. Aiming to improve robustness under real-world conditions, MoRE incorporates a confidence-based depth refinement module that stabilizes and refines geometric estimation. In addition, it integrates dense semantic features with globally aligned 3D backbone representations for high-fidelity surface normal prediction. MoRE is further optimized with tailored loss functions to ensure robust learning across diverse inputs and multiple geometric tasks. Extensive experiments demonstrate that MoRE achieves state-of-the-art performance across multiple benchmarks and supports effective downstream applications without extra computation.

Multimodal foundation models, such as GPT-4o, have recently made remarkable progress, but it is not clear where exactly these models stand in terms of understanding vision. In this paper, we benchmark the performance of popular multimodal foundation models (GPT-4o, o4-mini, Gemini 1.5 Pro and Gemini 2.0 Flash, Claude 3.5 Sonnet, Qwen2-VL, Llama 3.2) on standard computer vision tasks (semantic segmentation, object detection, image classification, depth and surface normal prediction) using established datasets (e.g., COCO, ImageNet and its variants, etc). The main challenges to performing this are: 1) most models are trained to output text and cannot natively express versatile domains, such as segments or 3D geometry, and 2) many leading models are proprietary and accessible only at an API level, i.e., there is no weight access to adapt them. We address these challenges by translating standard vision tasks into equivalent text-promptable and API-compatible tasks via prompt chaining to create a standardized benchmarking framework. We observe that 1) the models are not close to the state-of-the-art specialist models at any task. However, 2) they are respectable generalists; this is remarkable as they are presumably trained on primarily image-text-based tasks. 3) They perform semantic tasks notably better than geometric ones. 4) While the prompt-chaining techniques affect performance, better models exhibit less sensitivity to prompt variations. 5) GPT-4o performs the best among non-reasoning models, securing the top position in 4 out of 6 tasks, 6) reasoning models, e.g. o3, show improvements in geometric tasks, and 7) a preliminary analysis of models with native image generation, like the latest GPT-4o, shows they exhibit quirks like hallucinations and spatial misalignments.

Conventional production workflow of high-precision mesh assets necessitates a cumbersome and laborious process of manual sculpting by specialized 3D artists/modelers. The recent years have witnessed remarkable advances in AI-empowered 3D content creation for generating plausible structures and intricate appearances from images or text prompts. However, synthesizing realistic surface details still poses great challenges, and enhancing the geometry fidelity of existing lower-quality 3D meshes (instead of image/text-to-3D generation) remains an open problem. In this paper, we introduce SuperCarver, a 3D geometry super-resolution pipeline for supplementing texture-consistent surface details onto a given coarse mesh. We start by rendering the original textured mesh into the image domain from multiple viewpoints. To achieve detail boosting, we construct a deterministic prior-guided normal diffusion model, which is fine-tuned on a carefully curated dataset of paired detail-lacking and detail-rich normal map renderings. To update mesh surfaces from potentially imperfect normal map predictions, we design a noise-resistant inverse rendering scheme through deformable distance field. Experiments demonstrate that our SuperCarver is capable of generating realistic and expressive surface details depicted by the actual texture appearance, making it a powerful tool to both upgrade historical low-quality 3D assets and reduce the workload of sculpting high-poly meshes.

Monocular metric depth estimation (MMDE) is a crucial task to solve for indoor scene reconstruction on edge devices. Despite this importance, existing models are sensitive to factors such as boundary frequency of objects in the scene and scene complexity, failing to fully capture many indoor scenes. In this work, we propose to close this gap through the task of monocular metric depth refinement (MMDR) by leveraging state-of-the-art MMDE models. MultiDepth proposes a solution by taking samples of the image along with the initial depth map prediction made by a pre-trained MMDE model. Compared to existing iterative depth refinement techniques, MultiDepth does not employ normal map prediction as part of its architecture, effectively lowering the model size and computation overhead while outputting impactful changes from refining iterations. MultiDepth implements a lightweight encoder-decoder architecture for the refinement network, processing multiple samples from the given image, including segmentation masking. We evaluate MultiDepth on four datasets and compare them to state-of-the-art methods to demonstrate its effective refinement with minimal overhead, displaying accuracy improvement upward of 45%.

Despite the prevailing transition from single-task to multi-task approaches in video anomaly detection, we observe that many adopt sub-optimal frameworks for individual proxy tasks. Motivated by this, we contend that optimizing single-task frameworks can advance both single- and multi-task approaches. Accordingly, we leverage middle-frame prediction as the primary proxy task, and introduce an effective hybrid framework designed to generate accurate predictions for normal frames and flawed predictions for abnormal frames. This hybrid framework is built upon a bi-directional structure that seamlessly integrates both vision transformers and ConvLSTMs. Specifically, we utilize this bi-directional structure to fully analyze the temporal dimension by predicting frames in both forward and backward directions, significantly boosting the detection stability. Given the transformer's capacity to model long-range contextual dependencies, we develop a convolutional temporal transformer that efficiently associates feature maps from all context frames to generate attention-based predictions for target frames. Furthermore, we devise a layer-interactive ConvLSTM bridge that facilitates the smooth flow of low-level features across layers and time-steps, thereby strengthening predictions with fine details. Anomalies are eventually identified by scrutinizing the discrepancies between target frames and their corresponding predictions. Several experiments conducted on public benchmarks affirm the efficacy of our hybrid framework, whether used as a standalone single-task approach or integrated as a branch in a multi-task approach. These experiments also underscore the advantages of merging vision transformers and ConvLSTMs for video anomaly detection.

Existing approaches to the crime prediction problem are unsuccessful in expressing the details since they assign the probability values to large regions. This paper introduces a new architecture with the graph convolutional networks (GCN) and multivariate Gaussian distributions to perform high-resolution forecasting that applies to any spatiotemporal data. We tackle the sparsity problem in high resolution by leveraging the flexible structure of GCNs and providing a subdivision algorithm. We build our model with Graph Convolutional Gated Recurrent Units (Graph-ConvGRU) to learn spatial, temporal, and categorical relations. In each node of the graph, we learn a multivariate probability distribution from the extracted features of GCNs. We perform experiments on real-life and synthetic datasets, and our model obtains the best validation and the best test score among the baseline models with significant improvements. We show that our model is not only generative but also precise.

This paper presents the Nexar Dashcam Collision Prediction Dataset and Challenge, designed to support research in traffic event analysis, collision prediction, and autonomous vehicle safety. The dataset consists of 1,500 annotated video clips, each approximately 40 seconds long, capturing a diverse range of real-world traffic scenarios. Videos are labeled with event type (collision/near-collision vs. normal driving), environmental conditions (lighting conditions and weather), and scene type (urban, rural, highway, etc.). For collision and near-collision cases, additional temporal labels are provided, including the precise moment of the event and the alert time, marking when the collision first becomes predictable. To advance research on accident prediction, we introduce the Nexar Dashcam Collision Prediction Challenge, a public competition on top of this dataset. Participants are tasked with developing machine learning models that predict the likelihood of an imminent collision, given an input video. Model performance is evaluated using the average precision (AP) computed across multiple intervals before the accident (i.e. 500 ms, 1000 ms, and 1500 ms prior to the event), emphasizing the importance of early and reliable predictions. The dataset is released under an open license with restrictions on unethical use, ensuring responsible research and innovation.

Monocular depth estimation has drawn widespread attention from the vision community due to its broad applications. In this paper, we propose a novel physics (geometry)-driven deep learning framework for monocular depth estimation by assuming that 3D scenes are constituted by piece-wise planes. Particularly, we introduce a new normal-distance head that outputs pixel-level surface normal and plane-to-origin distance for deriving depth at each position. Meanwhile, the normal and distance are regularized by a developed plane-aware consistency constraint. We further integrate an additional depth head to improve the robustness of the proposed framework. To fully exploit the strengths of these two heads, we develop an effective contrastive iterative refinement module that refines depth in a complementary manner according to the depth uncertainty. Extensive experiments indicate that the proposed method exceeds previous state-of-the-art competitors on the NYU-Depth-v2, KITTI and SUN RGB-D datasets. Notably, it ranks 1st among all submissions on the KITTI depth prediction online benchmark at the submission time.

This paper presents a speech intelligibility model based on automatic speech recognition (ASR), combining phoneme probabilities from deep neural networks (DNN) and a performance measure that estimates the word error rate from these probabilities. This model does not require the clean speech reference nor the word labels during testing as the ASR decoding step, which finds the most likely sequence of words given phoneme posterior probabilities, is omitted. The model is evaluated via the root-mean-squared error between the predicted and observed speech reception thresholds from eight normal-hearing listeners. The recognition task consists of identifying noisy words from a German matrix sentence test. The speech material was mixed with eight noise maskers covering different modulation types, from speech-shaped stationary noise to a single-talker masker. The prediction performance is compared to five established models and an ASR-model using word labels. Two combinations of features and networks were tested. Both include temporal information either at the feature level (amplitude modulation filterbanks and a feed-forward network) or captured by the architecture (mel-spectrograms and a time-delay deep neural network, TDNN). The TDNN model is on par with the DNN while reducing the number of parameters by a factor of 37; this optimization allows parallel streams on dedicated hearing aid hardware as a forward-pass can be computed within the 10ms of each frame. The proposed model performs almost as well as the label-based model and produces more accurate predictions than the baseline models.

Postprandial hyperglycemia, marked by the blood glucose level exceeding the normal range after meals, is a critical indicator of progression toward type 2 diabetes in prediabetic and healthy individuals. A key metric for understanding blood glucose dynamics after eating is the postprandial area under the curve (PAUC). Predicting PAUC in advance based on a person's diet and activity level and explaining what affects postprandial blood glucose could allow an individual to adjust their lifestyle accordingly to maintain normal glucose levels. In this paper, we propose GlucoLens, an explainable machine learning approach to predict PAUC and hyperglycemia from diet, activity, and recent glucose patterns. We conducted a five-week user study with 10 full-time working individuals to develop and evaluate the computational model. Our machine learning model takes multimodal data including fasting glucose, recent glucose, recent activity, and macronutrient amounts, and provides an interpretable prediction of the postprandial glucose pattern. Our extensive analyses of the collected data revealed that the trained model achieves a normalized root mean squared error (NRMSE) of 0.123. On average, GlucoLense with a Random Forest backbone provides a 16% better result than the baseline models. Additionally, GlucoLens predicts hyperglycemia with an accuracy of 74% and recommends different options to help avoid hyperglycemia through diverse counterfactual explanations. Code available: https://github.com/ab9mamun/GlucoLens.

Despite the growing demand for accurate surface normal estimation models, existing methods use general-purpose dense prediction models, adopting the same inductive biases as other tasks. In this paper, we discuss the inductive biases needed for surface normal estimation and propose to (1) utilize the per-pixel ray direction and (2) encode the relationship between neighboring surface normals by learning their relative rotation. The proposed method can generate crisp - yet, piecewise smooth - predictions for challenging in-the-wild images of arbitrary resolution and aspect ratio. Compared to a recent ViT-based state-of-the-art model, our method shows a stronger generalization ability, despite being trained on an orders of magnitude smaller dataset. The code is available at https://github.com/baegwangbin/DSINE.

This paper tries to address a fundamental question in point cloud self-supervised learning: what is a good signal we should leverage to learn features from point clouds without annotations? To answer that, we introduce a point cloud representation learning framework, based on geometric feature reconstruction. In contrast to recent papers that directly adopt masked autoencoder (MAE) and only predict original coordinates or occupancy from masked point clouds, our method revisits differences between images and point clouds and identifies three self-supervised learning objectives peculiar to point clouds, namely centroid prediction, normal estimation, and curvature prediction. Combined with occupancy prediction, these four objectives yield an nontrivial self-supervised learning task and mutually facilitate models to better reason fine-grained geometry of point clouds. Our pipeline is conceptually simple and it consists of two major steps: first, it randomly masks out groups of points, followed by a Transformer-based point cloud encoder; second, a lightweight Transformer decoder predicts centroid, normal, and curvature for points in each voxel. We transfer the pre-trained Transformer encoder to a downstream peception model. On the nuScene Datset, our model achieves 3.38 mAP improvment for object detection, 2.1 mIoU gain for segmentation, and 1.7 AMOTA gain for multi-object tracking. We also conduct experiments on the Waymo Open Dataset and achieve significant performance improvements over baselines as well.

Leveraging the visual priors of pre-trained text-to-image diffusion models offers a promising solution to enhance zero-shot generalization in dense prediction tasks. However, existing methods often uncritically use the original diffusion formulation, which may not be optimal due to the fundamental differences between dense prediction and image generation. In this paper, we provide a systemic analysis of the diffusion formulation for the dense prediction, focusing on both quality and efficiency. And we find that the original parameterization type for image generation, which learns to predict noise, is harmful for dense prediction; the multi-step noising/denoising diffusion process is also unnecessary and challenging to optimize. Based on these insights, we introduce Lotus, a diffusion-based visual foundation model with a simple yet effective adaptation protocol for dense prediction. Specifically, Lotus is trained to directly predict annotations instead of noise, thereby avoiding harmful variance. We also reformulate the diffusion process into a single-step procedure, simplifying optimization and significantly boosting inference speed. Additionally, we introduce a novel tuning strategy called detail preserver, which achieves more accurate and fine-grained predictions. Without scaling up the training data or model capacity, Lotus achieves SoTA performance in zero-shot depth and normal estimation across various datasets. It also significantly enhances efficiency, being hundreds of times faster than most existing diffusion-based methods.

Transparent objects remain notoriously hard for perception systems: refraction, reflection and transmission break the assumptions behind stereo, ToF and purely discriminative monocular depth, causing holes and temporally unstable estimates. Our key observation is that modern video diffusion models already synthesize convincing transparent phenomena, suggesting they have internalized the optical rules. We build TransPhy3D, a synthetic video corpus of transparent/reflective scenes: 11k sequences rendered with Blender/Cycles. Scenes are assembled from a curated bank of category-rich static assets and shape-rich procedural assets paired with glass/plastic/metal materials. We render RGB + depth + normals with physically based ray tracing and OptiX denoising. Starting from a large video diffusion model, we learn a video-to-video translator for depth (and normals) via lightweight LoRA adapters. During training we concatenate RGB and (noisy) depth latents in the DiT backbone and co-train on TransPhy3D and existing frame-wise synthetic datasets, yielding temporally consistent predictions for arbitrary-length input videos. The resulting model, DKT, achieves zero-shot SOTA on real and synthetic video benchmarks involving transparency: ClearPose, DREDS (CatKnown/CatNovel), and TransPhy3D-Test. It improves accuracy and temporal consistency over strong image/video baselines, and a normal variant sets the best video normal estimation results on ClearPose. A compact 1.3B version runs at ~0.17 s/frame. Integrated into a grasping stack, DKT's depth boosts success rates across translucent, reflective and diffuse surfaces, outperforming prior estimators. Together, these results support a broader claim: "Diffusion knows transparency." Generative video priors can be repurposed, efficiently and label-free, into robust, temporally coherent perception for challenging real-world manipulation.

Large sky spectroscopic surveys have reached the scale of photometric surveys in terms of sample sizes and data complexity. These huge datasets require efficient, accurate, and flexible automated tools for data analysis and science exploitation. We present the Galaxy Spectra Network/GaSNet-II, a supervised multi-network deep learning tool for spectra classification and redshift prediction. GaSNet-II can be trained to identify a customized number of classes and optimize the redshift predictions for classified objects in each of them. It also provides redshift errors, using a network-of-networks that reproduces a Monte Carlo test on each spectrum, by randomizing their weight initialization. As a demonstration of the capability of the deep learning pipeline, we use 260k Sloan Digital Sky Survey spectra from Data Release 16, separated into 13 classes including 140k galactic, and 120k extragalactic objects. GaSNet-II achieves 92.4% average classification accuracy over the 13 classes (larger than 90% for the majority of them), and an average redshift error of approximately 0.23% for galaxies and 2.1% for quasars. We further train/test the same pipeline to classify spectra and predict redshifts for a sample of 200k 4MOST mock spectra and 21k publicly released DESI spectra. On 4MOST mock data, we reach 93.4% accuracy in 10-class classification and an average redshift error of 0.55% for galaxies and 0.3% for active galactic nuclei. On DESI data, we reach 96% accuracy in (star/galaxy/quasar only) classification and an average redshift error of 2.8% for galaxies and 4.8% for quasars, despite the small sample size available. GaSNet-II can process ~40k spectra in less than one minute, on a normal Desktop GPU. This makes the pipeline particularly suitable for real-time analyses of Stage-IV survey observations and an ideal tool for feedback loops aimed at night-by-night survey strategy optimization.

The latest regularized Neural Radiance Field (NeRF) approaches produce poor geometry and view extrapolation for multiview stereo (MVS) benchmarks such as ETH3D. In this paper, we aim to create 3D models that provide accurate geometry and view synthesis, partially closing the large geometric performance gap between NeRF and traditional MVS methods. We propose a patch-based approach that effectively leverages monocular surface normal and relative depth predictions. The patch-based ray sampling also enables the appearance regularization of normalized cross-correlation (NCC) and structural similarity (SSIM) between randomly sampled virtual and training views. We further show that "density restrictions" based on sparse structure-from-motion points can help greatly improve geometric accuracy with a slight drop in novel view synthesis metrics. Our experiments show 4x the performance of RegNeRF and 8x that of FreeNeRF on average F1@2cm for ETH3D MVS benchmark, suggesting a fruitful research direction to improve the geometric accuracy of NeRF-based models, and sheds light on a potential future approach to enable NeRF-based optimization to eventually outperform traditional MVS.

Although existing stereo matching models have achieved continuous improvement, they often face issues related to trustworthiness due to the absence of uncertainty estimation. Additionally, effectively leveraging multi-scale and multi-view knowledge of stereo pairs remains unexplored. In this paper, we introduce the Evidential Local-global Fusion (ELF) framework for stereo matching, which endows both uncertainty estimation and confidence-aware fusion with trustworthy heads. Instead of predicting the disparity map alone, our model estimates an evidential-based disparity considering both aleatoric and epistemic uncertainties. With the normal inverse-Gamma distribution as a bridge, the proposed framework realizes intra evidential fusion of multi-level predictions and inter evidential fusion between cost-volume-based and transformer-based stereo matching. Extensive experimental results show that the proposed framework exploits multi-view information effectively and achieves state-of-the-art overall performance both on accuracy and cross-domain generalization. The codes are available at https://github.com/jimmy19991222/ELFNet.

Video Anomaly Detection (VAD) methods based on reconstruction or prediction face two critical challenges: (1) strong generalization capability often results in accurate reconstruction or prediction of abnormal events, making it difficult to distinguish normal from abnormal patterns; (2) reliance only on low-level appearance and motion cues limits their ability to identify high-level semantic in abnormal events from complex scenes. To address these limitations, we propose a novel VAD framework with two key innovations. First, to suppress excessive generalization, we introduce the Sparse Feature Filtering Module (SFFM) that employs bottleneck filters to dynamically and adaptively remove abnormal information from features. Unlike traditional memory modules, it does not need to memorize the normal prototypes across the training dataset. Further, we design the Mixture of Experts (MoE) architecture for SFFM. Each expert is responsible for extracting specialized principal features during running time, and different experts are selectively activated to ensure the diversity of the learned principal features. Second, to overcome the neglect of semantics in existing methods, we integrate a Vision-Language Model (VLM) to generate textual descriptions for video clips, enabling comprehensive joint modeling of semantic, appearance, and motion cues. Additionally, we enforce modality consistency through semantic similarity constraints and motion frame-difference contrastive loss. Extensive experiments on multiple public datasets validate the effectiveness of our multimodal joint modeling framework and sparse feature filtering paradigm. Project page at https://qzfm.github.io/sfn_vad_project_page/.

The state of the art in human-centric computer vision achieves high accuracy and robustness across a diverse range of tasks. The most effective models in this domain have billions of parameters, thus requiring extremely large datasets, expensive training regimes, and compute-intensive inference. In this paper, we demonstrate that it is possible to train models on much smaller but high-fidelity synthetic datasets, with no loss in accuracy and higher efficiency. Using synthetic training data provides us with excellent levels of detail and perfect labels, while providing strong guarantees for data provenance, usage rights, and user consent. Procedural data synthesis also provides us with explicit control on data diversity, that we can use to address unfairness in the models we train. Extensive quantitative assessment on real input images demonstrates accuracy of our models on three dense prediction tasks: depth estimation, surface normal estimation, and soft foreground segmentation. Our models require only a fraction of the cost of training and inference when compared with foundational models of similar accuracy. Our human-centric synthetic dataset and trained models are available at https://aka.ms/DAViD.

Many machine learning tasks involve learning functions that are known to be invariant or equivariant to certain symmetries of the input data. However, it is often challenging to design neural network architectures that respect these symmetries while being expressive and computationally efficient. For example, Euclidean motion invariant/equivariant graph or point cloud neural networks. We introduce Frame Averaging (FA), a general purpose and systematic framework for adapting known (backbone) architectures to become invariant or equivariant to new symmetry types. Our framework builds on the well known group averaging operator that guarantees invariance or equivariance but is intractable. In contrast, we observe that for many important classes of symmetries, this operator can be replaced with an averaging operator over a small subset of the group elements, called a frame. We show that averaging over a frame guarantees exact invariance or equivariance while often being much simpler to compute than averaging over the entire group. Furthermore, we prove that FA-based models have maximal expressive power in a broad setting and in general preserve the expressive power of their backbone architectures. Using frame averaging, we propose a new class of universal Graph Neural Networks (GNNs), universal Euclidean motion invariant point cloud networks, and Euclidean motion invariant Message Passing (MP) GNNs. We demonstrate the practical effectiveness of FA on several applications including point cloud normal estimation, beyond 2-WL graph separation, and n-body dynamics prediction, achieving state-of-the-art results in all of these benchmarks.

Leveraging visual priors from pre-trained text-to-image (T2I) generative models has shown success in dense prediction. However, dense prediction is inherently an image-to-image task, suggesting that image editing models, rather than T2I generative models, may be a more suitable foundation for fine-tuning. Motivated by this, we conduct a systematic analysis of the fine-tuning behaviors of both editors and generators for dense geometry estimation. Our findings show that editing models possess inherent structural priors, which enable them to converge more stably by ``refining" their innate features, and ultimately achieve higher performance than their generative counterparts. Based on these findings, we introduce FE2E, a framework that pioneeringly adapts an advanced editing model based on Diffusion Transformer (DiT) architecture for dense geometry prediction. Specifically, to tailor the editor for this deterministic task, we reformulate the editor's original flow matching loss into the ``consistent velocity" training objective. And we use logarithmic quantization to resolve the precision conflict between the editor's native BFloat16 format and the high precision demand of our tasks. Additionally, we leverage the DiT's global attention for a cost-free joint estimation of depth and normals in a single forward pass, enabling their supervisory signals to mutually enhance each other. Without scaling up the training data, FE2E achieves impressive performance improvements in zero-shot monocular depth and normal estimation across multiple datasets. Notably, it achieves over 35\% performance gains on the ETH3D dataset and outperforms the DepthAnything series, which is trained on 100times data. The project page can be accessed https://amap-ml.github.io/FE2E/{here}.

Accurate medical classification requires a large number of multi-modal data, and in many cases, different feature types. Previous studies have shown promising results when using multi-modal data, outperforming single-modality models when classifying diseases such as Alzheimer's Disease (AD). However, those models are usually not flexible enough to handle missing modalities. Currently, the most common workaround is discarding samples with missing modalities which leads to considerable data under-utilization. Adding to the fact that labeled medical images are already scarce, the performance of data-driven methods like deep learning can be severely hampered. Therefore, a multi-modal method that can handle missing data in various clinical settings is highly desirable. In this paper, we present Multi-Modal Mixing Transformer (3MAT), a disease classification transformer that not only leverages multi-modal data but also handles missing data scenarios. In this work, we test 3MT for AD and Cognitively normal (CN) classification and mild cognitive impairment (MCI) conversion prediction to progressive MCI (pMCI) or stable MCI (sMCI) using clinical and neuroimaging data. The model uses a novel Cascaded Modality Transformer architecture with cross-attention to incorporate multi-modal information for more informed predictions. We propose a novel modality dropout mechanism to ensure an unprecedented level of modality independence and robustness to handle missing data scenarios. The result is a versatile network that enables the mixing of arbitrary numbers of modalities with different feature types and also ensures full data utilization missing data scenarios. The model is trained and evaluated on the ADNI dataset with the SOTRA performance and further evaluated with the AIBL dataset with missing data.

We present SF3D, a novel method for rapid and high-quality textured object mesh reconstruction from a single image in just 0.5 seconds. Unlike most existing approaches, SF3D is explicitly trained for mesh generation, incorporating a fast UV unwrapping technique that enables swift texture generation rather than relying on vertex colors. The method also learns to predict material parameters and normal maps to enhance the visual quality of the reconstructed 3D meshes. Furthermore, SF3D integrates a delighting step to effectively remove low-frequency illumination effects, ensuring that the reconstructed meshes can be easily used in novel illumination conditions. Experiments demonstrate the superior performance of SF3D over the existing techniques. Project page: https://stable-fast-3d.github.io

If human experience is any guide, operating effectively in unstructured environments -- like homes and offices -- requires robots to sense the forces during physical interaction. Yet, the lack of a versatile, accessible, and easily customizable tactile sensor has led to fragmented, sensor-specific solutions in robotic manipulation -- and in many cases, to force-unaware, sensorless approaches. With eFlesh, we bridge this gap by introducing a magnetic tactile sensor that is low-cost, easy to fabricate, and highly customizable. Building an eFlesh sensor requires only four components: a hobbyist 3D printer, off-the-shelf magnets (<$5), a CAD model of the desired shape, and a magnetometer circuit board. The sensor is constructed from tiled, parameterized microstructures, which allow for tuning the sensor's geometry and its mechanical response. We provide an open-source design tool that converts convex OBJ/STL files into 3D-printable STLs for fabrication. This modular design framework enables users to create application-specific sensors, and to adjust sensitivity depending on the task. Our sensor characterization experiments demonstrate the capabilities of eFlesh: contact localization RMSE of 0.5 mm, and force prediction RMSE of 0.27 N for normal force and 0.12 N for shear force. We also present a learned slip detection model that generalizes to unseen objects with 95% accuracy, and visuotactile control policies that improve manipulation performance by 40% over vision-only baselines -- achieving 91% average success rate for four precise tasks that require sub-mm accuracy for successful completion. All design files, code and the CAD-to-eFlesh STL conversion tool are open-sourced and available on https://e-flesh.com.

Enterprises and organizations are faced with potential threats from insider employees that may lead to serious consequences. Previous studies on insider threat detection (ITD) mainly focus on detecting abnormal users or abnormal time periods (e.g., a week or a day). However, a user may have hundreds of thousands of activities in the log, and even within a day there may exist thousands of activities for a user, requiring a high investigation budget to verify abnormal users or activities given the detection results. On the other hand, existing works are mainly post-hoc methods rather than real-time detection, which can not report insider threats in time before they cause loss. In this paper, we conduct the first study towards real-time ITD at activity level, and present a fine-grained and efficient framework LAN. Specifically, LAN simultaneously learns the temporal dependencies within an activity sequence and the relationships between activities across sequences with graph structure learning. Moreover, to mitigate the data imbalance problem in ITD, we propose a novel hybrid prediction loss, which integrates self-supervision signals from normal activities and supervision signals from abnormal activities into a unified loss for anomaly detection. We evaluate the performance of LAN on two widely used datasets, i.e., CERT r4.2 and CERT r5.2. Extensive and comparative experiments demonstrate the superiority of LAN, outperforming 9 state-of-the-art baselines by at least 9.92% and 6.35% in AUC for real-time ITD on CERT r4.2 and r5.2, respectively. Moreover, LAN can be also applied to post-hoc ITD, surpassing 8 competitive baselines by at least 7.70% and 4.03% in AUC on two datasets. Finally, the ablation study, parameter analysis, and compatibility analysis evaluate the impact of each module and hyper-parameter in LAN. The source code can be obtained from https://github.com/Li1Neo/LAN.

Recent advances in Neural Radiance Fields (NeRFs) have made it possible to reconstruct and reanimate dynamic portrait scenes with control over head-pose, facial expressions and viewing direction. However, training such models assumes photometric consistency over the deformed region e.g. the face must be evenly lit as it deforms with changing head-pose and facial expression. Such photometric consistency across frames of a video is hard to maintain, even in studio environments, thus making the created reanimatable neural portraits prone to artifacts during reanimation. In this work, we propose CoDyNeRF, a system that enables the creation of fully controllable 3D portraits in real-world capture conditions. CoDyNeRF learns to approximate illumination dependent effects via a dynamic appearance model in the canonical space that is conditioned on predicted surface normals and the facial expressions and head-pose deformations. The surface normals prediction is guided using 3DMM normals that act as a coarse prior for the normals of the human head, where direct prediction of normals is hard due to rigid and non-rigid deformations induced by head-pose and facial expression changes. Using only a smartphone-captured short video of a subject for training, we demonstrate the effectiveness of our method on free view synthesis of a portrait scene with explicit head pose and expression controls, and realistic lighting effects. The project page can be found here: http://shahrukhathar.github.io/2023/08/22/CoDyNeRF.html

The success of deep learning in computer vision over the past decade has hinged on large labeled datasets and strong pretrained models. In data-scarce settings, the quality of these pretrained models becomes crucial for effective transfer learning. Image classification and self-supervised learning have traditionally been the primary methods for pretraining CNNs and transformer-based architectures. Recently, the rise of text-to-image generative models, particularly those using denoising diffusion in a latent space, has introduced a new class of foundational models trained on massive, captioned image datasets. These models' ability to generate realistic images of unseen content suggests they possess a deep understanding of the visual world. In this work, we present Marigold, a family of conditional generative models and a fine-tuning protocol that extracts the knowledge from pretrained latent diffusion models like Stable Diffusion and adapts them for dense image analysis tasks, including monocular depth estimation, surface normals prediction, and intrinsic decomposition. Marigold requires minimal modification of the pre-trained latent diffusion model's architecture, trains with small synthetic datasets on a single GPU over a few days, and demonstrates state-of-the-art zero-shot generalization. Project page: https://marigoldcomputervision.github.io

Anomalies are rare and anomaly detection is often therefore framed as One-Class Classification (OCC), i.e. trained solely on normalcy. Leading OCC techniques constrain the latent representations of normal motions to limited volumes and detect as abnormal anything outside, which accounts satisfactorily for the openset'ness of anomalies. But normalcy shares the same openset'ness property since humans can perform the same action in several ways, which the leading techniques neglect. We propose a novel generative model for video anomaly detection (VAD), which assumes that both normality and abnormality are multimodal. We consider skeletal representations and leverage state-of-the-art diffusion probabilistic models to generate multimodal future human poses. We contribute a novel conditioning on the past motion of people and exploit the improved mode coverage capabilities of diffusion processes to generate different-but-plausible future motions. Upon the statistical aggregation of future modes, an anomaly is detected when the generated set of motions is not pertinent to the actual future. We validate our model on 4 established benchmarks: UBnormal, HR-UBnormal, HR-STC, and HR-Avenue, with extensive experiments surpassing state-of-the-art results.

Laboratory test results are an important and generally high dimensional component of a patient's Electronic Health Record (EHR). We train embedding representations (via Word2Vec and GloVe) for LOINC codes of laboratory tests from the EHRs of about 80,000 patients at a cancer center. To include information about lab test outcomes, we also train embeddings on the concatenation of a LOINC code with a symbol indicating normality or abnormality of the result. We observe several clinically meaningful similarities among LOINC embeddings trained over our data. For the embeddings of the concatenation of LOINCs with abnormality codes, we evaluate the performance for mortality prediction tasks and the ability to preserve ordinality properties: i.e. a lab test with normal outcome should be more similar to an abnormal one than to the a very abnormal one.

In this paper, we tackle the important yet under-investigated problem of making long-horizon prediction of event sequences. Existing state-of-the-art models do not perform well at this task due to their autoregressive structure. We propose HYPRO, a hybridly normalized probabilistic model that naturally fits this task: its first part is an autoregressive base model that learns to propose predictions; its second part is an energy function that learns to reweight the proposals such that more realistic predictions end up with higher probabilities. We also propose efficient training and inference algorithms for this model. Experiments on multiple real-world datasets demonstrate that our proposed HYPRO model can significantly outperform previous models at making long-horizon predictions of future events. We also conduct a range of ablation studies to investigate the effectiveness of each component of our proposed methods.

Anomaly detection in supercomputers is a very difficult problem due to the big scale of the systems and the high number of components. The current state of the art for automated anomaly detection employs Machine Learning methods or statistical regression models in a supervised fashion, meaning that the detection tool is trained to distinguish among a fixed set of behaviour classes (healthy and unhealthy states). We propose a novel approach for anomaly detection in High Performance Computing systems based on a Machine (Deep) Learning technique, namely a type of neural network called autoencoder. The key idea is to train a set of autoencoders to learn the normal (healthy) behaviour of the supercomputer nodes and, after training, use them to identify abnormal conditions. This is different from previous approaches which where based on learning the abnormal condition, for which there are much smaller datasets (since it is very hard to identify them to begin with). We test our approach on a real supercomputer equipped with a fine-grained, scalable monitoring infrastructure that can provide large amount of data to characterize the system behaviour. The results are extremely promising: after the training phase to learn the normal system behaviour, our method is capable of detecting anomalies that have never been seen before with a very good accuracy (values ranging between 88% and 96%).

Anomaly Detection (AD) in images is a fundamental computer vision problem and refers to identifying images and image substructures that deviate significantly from the norm. Popular AD algorithms commonly try to learn a model of normality from scratch using task specific datasets, but are limited to semi-supervised approaches employing mostly normal data due to the inaccessibility of anomalies on a large scale combined with the ambiguous nature of anomaly appearance. We follow an alternative approach and demonstrate that deep feature representations learned by discriminative models on large natural image datasets are well suited to describe normality and detect even subtle anomalies in a transfer learning setting. Our model of normality is established by fitting a multivariate Gaussian (MVG) to deep feature representations of classification networks trained on ImageNet using normal data only. By subsequently applying the Mahalanobis distance as the anomaly score we outperform the current state of the art on the public MVTec AD dataset, achieving an AUROC value of 95.8 pm 1.2 (mean pm SEM) over all 15 classes. We further investigate why the learned representations are discriminative to the AD task using Principal Component Analysis. We find that the principal components containing little variance in normal data are the ones crucial for discriminating between normal and anomalous instances. This gives a possible explanation to the often sub-par performance of AD approaches trained from scratch using normal data only. By selectively fitting a MVG to these most relevant components only, we are able to further reduce model complexity while retaining AD performance. We also investigate setting the working point by selecting acceptable False Positive Rate thresholds based on the MVG assumption. Code available at https://github.com/ORippler/gaussian-ad-mvtec

Generalist Anomaly Detection (GAD) aims to train a unified model on an original domain that can detect anomalies in new target domains. Previous GAD methods primarily use only normal samples as references, overlooking the valuable information contained in anomalous samples that are often available in real-world scenarios. To address this limitation, we propose a more practical approach: normal-abnormal-guided generalist anomaly detection, which leverages both normal and anomalous samples as references to guide anomaly detection across diverse domains. We introduce the Normal-Abnormal Generalist Learning (NAGL) framework, consisting of two key components: Residual Mining (RM) and Anomaly Feature Learning (AFL). RM extracts abnormal patterns from normal-abnormal reference residuals to establish transferable anomaly representations, while AFL adaptively learns anomaly features in query images through residual mapping to identify instance-aware anomalies. Our approach effectively utilizes both normal and anomalous references for more accurate and efficient cross-domain anomaly detection. Extensive experiments across multiple benchmarks demonstrate that our method significantly outperforms existing GAD approaches. This work represents the first to adopt a mixture of normal and abnormal samples as references in generalist anomaly detection. The code and datasets are available at https://github.com/JasonKyng/NAGL.

We present Natural Gradient Boosting (NGBoost), an algorithm for generic probabilistic prediction via gradient boosting. Typical regression models return a point estimate, conditional on covariates, but probabilistic regression models output a full probability distribution over the outcome space, conditional on the covariates. This allows for predictive uncertainty estimation -- crucial in applications like healthcare and weather forecasting. NGBoost generalizes gradient boosting to probabilistic regression by treating the parameters of the conditional distribution as targets for a multiparameter boosting algorithm. Furthermore, we show how the Natural Gradient is required to correct the training dynamics of our multiparameter boosting approach. NGBoost can be used with any base learner, any family of distributions with continuous parameters, and any scoring rule. NGBoost matches or exceeds the performance of existing methods for probabilistic prediction while offering additional benefits in flexibility, scalability, and usability. An open-source implementation is available at github.com/stanfordmlgroup/ngboost.

Because anomalous samples cannot be used for training, many anomaly detection and localization methods use pre-trained networks and non-parametric modeling to estimate encoded feature distribution. However, these methods neglect the impact of position and neighborhood information on the distribution of normal features. To overcome this, we propose a new algorithm, PNI, which estimates the normal distribution using conditional probability given neighborhood features, modeled with a multi-layer perceptron network. Moreover, position information is utilized by creating a histogram of representative features at each position. Instead of simply resizing the anomaly map, the proposed method employs an additional refine network trained on synthetic anomaly images to better interpolate and account for the shape and edge of the input image. We conducted experiments on the MVTec AD benchmark dataset and achieved state-of-the-art performance, with 99.56\% and 98.98\% AUROC scores in anomaly detection and localization, respectively.

Background: Electronic Health Records hold detailed longitudinal information about each patient's health status and general clinical history, a large portion of which is stored within the unstructured text. Existing approaches focus mostly on structured data and a subset of single-domain outcomes. We explore how temporal modelling of patients from free text and structured data, using deep generative transformers can be used to forecast a wide range of future disorders, substances, procedures or findings. Methods: We present Foresight, a novel transformer-based pipeline that uses named entity recognition and linking tools to convert document text into structured, coded concepts, followed by providing probabilistic forecasts for future medical events such as disorders, substances, procedures and findings. We processed the entire free-text portion from three different hospital datasets totalling 811336 patients covering both physical and mental health. Findings: On tests in two UK hospitals (King's College Hospital, South London and Maudsley) and the US MIMIC-III dataset precision@10 0.68, 0.76 and 0.88 was achieved for forecasting the next disorder in a patient timeline, while precision@10 of 0.80, 0.81 and 0.91 was achieved for forecasting the next biomedical concept. Foresight was also validated on 34 synthetic patient timelines by five clinicians and achieved relevancy of 97% for the top forecasted candidate disorder. As a generative model, it can forecast follow-on biomedical concepts for as many steps as required. Interpretation: Foresight is a general-purpose model for biomedical concept modelling that can be used for real-world risk forecasting, virtual trials and clinical research to study the progression of disorders, simulate interventions and counterfactuals, and educational purposes.

In medical applications, deep learning methods are built to automate diagnostic tasks. However, a clinically relevant question that practitioners usually face, is how to predict the future trajectory of a disease (prognosis). Current methods for such a problem often require domain knowledge, and are complicated to apply. In this paper, we formulate the prognosis prediction problem as a one-to-many forecasting problem from multimodal data. Inspired by a clinical decision-making process with two agents -- a radiologist and a general practitioner, we model a prognosis prediction problem with two transformer-based components that share information between each other. The first block in this model aims to analyze the imaging data, and the second block leverages the internal representations of the first one as inputs, also fusing them with auxiliary patient data. We show the effectiveness of our method in predicting the development of structural knee osteoarthritis changes over time. Our results show that the proposed method outperforms the state-of-the-art baselines in terms of various performance metrics. In addition, we empirically show that the existence of the multi-agent transformers with depths of 2 is sufficient to achieve good performances. Our code is publicly available at https://github.com/MIPT-Oulu/CLIMAT.

A common statistical task lies in showing asymptotic normality of certain statistics. In many of these situations, classical textbook results on weak convergence theory suffice for the problem at hand. However, there are quite some scenarios where stronger results are needed in order to establish an asymptotic normal approximation uniformly over a family of probability measures. In this note we collect some results in this direction. We restrict ourselves to weak convergence in mathbb R^d with continuous limit measures.

We introduce EarthPT -- an Earth Observation (EO) pretrained transformer. EarthPT is a 700 million parameter decoding transformer foundation model trained in an autoregressive self-supervised manner and developed specifically with EO use-cases in mind. We demonstrate that EarthPT is an effective forecaster that can accurately predict future pixel-level surface reflectances across the 400-2300 nm range well into the future. For example, forecasts of the evolution of the Normalised Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) have a typical error of approximately 0.05 (over a natural range of -1 -> 1) at the pixel level over a five month test set horizon, out-performing simple phase-folded models based on historical averaging. We also demonstrate that embeddings learnt by EarthPT hold semantically meaningful information and could be exploited for downstream tasks such as highly granular, dynamic land use classification. Excitingly, we note that the abundance of EO data provides us with -- in theory -- quadrillions of training tokens. Therefore, if we assume that EarthPT follows neural scaling laws akin to those derived for Large Language Models (LLMs), there is currently no data-imposed limit to scaling EarthPT and other similar `Large Observation Models.'

Deep neural networks are often applied to medical images to automate the problem of medical diagnosis. However, a more clinically relevant question that practitioners usually face is how to predict the future trajectory of a disease. Current methods for prognosis or disease trajectory forecasting often require domain knowledge and are complicated to apply. In this paper, we formulate the prognosis prediction problem as a one-to-many prediction problem. Inspired by a clinical decision-making process with two agents -- a radiologist and a general practitioner -- we predict prognosis with two transformer-based components that share information with each other. The first transformer in this framework aims to analyze the imaging data, and the second one leverages its internal states as inputs, also fusing them with auxiliary clinical data. The temporal nature of the problem is modeled within the transformer states, allowing us to treat the forecasting problem as a multi-task classification, for which we propose a novel loss. We show the effectiveness of our approach in predicting the development of structural knee osteoarthritis changes and forecasting Alzheimer's disease clinical status directly from raw multi-modal data. The proposed method outperforms multiple state-of-the-art baselines with respect to performance and calibration, both of which are needed for real-world applications. An open-source implementation of our method is made publicly available at https://github.com/Oulu-IMEDS/CLIMATv2.

Surveillance videos are able to capture a variety of realistic anomalies. In this paper, we propose to learn anomalies by exploiting both normal and anomalous videos. To avoid annotating the anomalous segments or clips in training videos, which is very time consuming, we propose to learn anomaly through the deep multiple instance ranking framework by leveraging weakly labeled training videos, i.e. the training labels (anomalous or normal) are at video-level instead of clip-level. In our approach, we consider normal and anomalous videos as bags and video segments as instances in multiple instance learning (MIL), and automatically learn a deep anomaly ranking model that predicts high anomaly scores for anomalous video segments. Furthermore, we introduce sparsity and temporal smoothness constraints in the ranking loss function to better localize anomaly during training. We also introduce a new large-scale first of its kind dataset of 128 hours of videos. It consists of 1900 long and untrimmed real-world surveillance videos, with 13 realistic anomalies such as fighting, road accident, burglary, robbery, etc. as well as normal activities. This dataset can be used for two tasks. First, general anomaly detection considering all anomalies in one group and all normal activities in another group. Second, for recognizing each of 13 anomalous activities. Our experimental results show that our MIL method for anomaly detection achieves significant improvement on anomaly detection performance as compared to the state-of-the-art approaches. We provide the results of several recent deep learning baselines on anomalous activity recognition. The low recognition performance of these baselines reveals that our dataset is very challenging and opens more opportunities for future work. The dataset is available at: https://webpages.uncc.edu/cchen62/dataset.html

Deep Learning based models are currently dominating most state-of-the-art solutions for disease prediction. Existing works employ RNNs along with multiple levels of attention mechanisms to provide interpretability. These deep learning models, with trainable parameters running into millions, require huge amounts of compute and data to train and deploy. These requirements are sometimes so huge that they render usage of such models as unfeasible. We address these challenges by developing a simpler yet interpretable non-deep learning based model for application to EHR data. We model and showcase our work's results on the task of predicting first occurrence of a diagnosis, often overlooked in existing works. We push the capabilities of a tree based model and come up with a strong baseline for more sophisticated models. Its performance shows an improvement over deep learning based solutions (both, with and without the first-occurrence constraint) all the while maintaining interpretability.

With climate change-related extreme events on the rise, high dimensional Earth observation data presents a unique opportunity for forecasting and understanding impacts on ecosystems. This is, however, impeded by the complexity of processing, visualizing, modeling, and explaining this data. To showcase how this challenge can be met, here we train a convolutional long short-term memory-based architecture on the novel DeepExtremeCubes dataset. DeepExtremeCubes includes around 40,000 long-term Sentinel-2 minicubes (January 2016-October 2022) worldwide, along with labeled extreme events, meteorological data, vegetation land cover, and topography map, sampled from locations affected by extreme climate events and surrounding areas. When predicting future reflectances and vegetation impacts through kernel normalized difference vegetation index, the model achieved an R^2 score of 0.9055 in the test set. Explainable artificial intelligence was used to analyze the model's predictions during the October 2020 Central South America compound heatwave and drought event. We chose the same area exactly one year before the event as counterfactual, finding that the average temperature and surface pressure are generally the best predictors under normal conditions. In contrast, minimum anomalies of evaporation and surface latent heat flux take the lead during the event. A change of regime is also observed in the attributions before the event, which might help assess how long the event was brewing before happening. The code to replicate all experiments and figures in this paper is publicly available at https://github.com/DeepExtremes/txyXAI

Accurately predicting the future would be an important milestone in the capabilities of artificial intelligence. However, research on the ability of large language models to provide probabilistic predictions about future events remains nascent. To empirically test this ability, we enrolled OpenAI's state-of-the-art large language model, GPT-4, in a three-month forecasting tournament hosted on the Metaculus platform. The tournament, running from July to October 2023, attracted 843 participants and covered diverse topics including Big Tech, U.S. politics, viral outbreaks, and the Ukraine conflict. Focusing on binary forecasts, we show that GPT-4's probabilistic forecasts are significantly less accurate than the median human-crowd forecasts. We find that GPT-4's forecasts did not significantly differ from the no-information forecasting strategy of assigning a 50% probability to every question. We explore a potential explanation, that GPT-4 might be predisposed to predict probabilities close to the midpoint of the scale, but our data do not support this hypothesis. Overall, we find that GPT-4 significantly underperforms in real-world predictive tasks compared to median human-crowd forecasts. A potential explanation for this underperformance is that in real-world forecasting tournaments, the true answers are genuinely unknown at the time of prediction; unlike in other benchmark tasks like professional exams or time series forecasting, where strong performance may at least partly be due to the answers being memorized from the training data. This makes real-world forecasting tournaments an ideal environment for testing the generalized reasoning and prediction capabilities of artificial intelligence going forward.

Anomaly detection plays a crucial role in the field of predictive maintenance for wind turbines, yet the comparison of different algorithms poses a difficult task because domain specific public datasets are scarce. Many comparisons of different approaches either use benchmarks composed of data from many different domains, inaccessible data or one of the few publicly available datasets which lack detailed information about the faults. Moreover, many publications highlight a couple of case studies where fault detection was successful. With this paper we publish a high quality dataset that contains data from 36 wind turbines across 3 different wind farms as well as the most detailed fault information of any public wind turbine dataset as far as we know. The new dataset contains 89 years worth of real-world operating data of wind turbines, distributed across 44 labeled time frames for anomalies that led up to faults, as well as 51 time series representing normal behavior. Additionally, the quality of training data is ensured by turbine-status-based labels for each data point. Furthermore, we propose a new scoring method, called CARE (Coverage, Accuracy, Reliability and Earliness), which takes advantage of the information depth that is present in the dataset to identify a good all-around anomaly detection model. This score considers the anomaly detection performance, the ability to recognize normal behavior properly and the capability to raise as few false alarms as possible while simultaneously detecting anomalies early.

We developed an explainable artificial intelligence (AI) early warning score (xAI-EWS) system for early detection of acute critical illness. While maintaining a high predictive performance, our system explains to the clinician on which relevant electronic health records (EHRs) data the prediction is grounded. Acute critical illness is often preceded by deterioration of routinely measured clinical parameters, e.g., blood pressure and heart rate. Early clinical prediction is typically based on manually calculated screening metrics that simply weigh these parameters, such as Early Warning Scores (EWS). The predictive performance of EWSs yields a tradeoff between sensitivity and specificity that can lead to negative outcomes for the patient. Previous work on EHR-trained AI systems offers promising results with high levels of predictive performance in relation to the early, real-time prediction of acute critical illness. However, without insight into the complex decisions by such system, clinical translation is hindered. In this letter, we present our xAI-EWS system, which potentiates clinical translation by accompanying a prediction with information on the EHR data explaining it.

Applying a machine learning model for decision-making in the real world requires to distinguish what the model knows from what it does not. A critical factor in assessing the knowledge of a model is to quantify its predictive uncertainty. Predictive uncertainty is commonly measured by the entropy of the Bayesian model average (BMA) predictive distribution. Yet, the properness of this current measure of predictive uncertainty was recently questioned. We provide new insights regarding those limitations. Our analyses show that the current measure erroneously assumes that the BMA predictive distribution is equivalent to the predictive distribution of the true model that generated the dataset. Consequently, we introduce a theoretically grounded measure to overcome these limitations. We experimentally verify the benefits of our introduced measure of predictive uncertainty. We find that our introduced measure behaves more reasonably in controlled synthetic tasks. Moreover, our evaluations on ImageNet demonstrate that our introduced measure is advantageous in real-world applications utilizing predictive uncertainty.

Obesity, the leading cause of many non-communicable diseases, occurs mainly for eating more than our body requirements and lack of proper activity. So, being healthy requires heathy diet plans, especially for patients with comorbidities. But it is difficult to figure out the exact quantity of each nutrient because nutrients requirement varies based on physical and disease conditions. In our study we proposed a novel machine learning based system to predict the amount of nutrients one individual requires for being healthy. We applied different machine learning algorithms: linear regression, support vector machine (SVM), decision tree, random forest, XGBoost, LightGBM on fluid and 3 other major micronutrients: carbohydrate, protein, fat consumption prediction. We achieved high accuracy with low root mean square error (RMSE) by using linear regression in fluid prediction, random forest in carbohydrate prediction and LightGBM in protein and fat prediction. We believe our diet recommender system, OBESEYE, is the only of its kind which recommends diet with the consideration of comorbidities and physical conditions and promote encouragement to get rid of obesity.

Machine learning models are often trained to predict the outcome resulting from a human decision. For example, if a doctor decides to test a patient for disease, will the patient test positive? A challenge is that historical decision-making determines whether the outcome is observed: we only observe test outcomes for patients doctors historically tested. Untested patients, for whom outcomes are unobserved, may differ from tested patients along observed and unobserved dimensions. We propose a Bayesian model class which captures this setting. The purpose of the model is to accurately estimate risk for both tested and untested patients. Estimating this model is challenging due to the wide range of possibilities for untested patients. To address this, we propose two domain constraints which are plausible in health settings: a prevalence constraint, where the overall disease prevalence is known, and an expertise constraint, where the human decision-maker deviates from purely risk-based decision-making only along a constrained feature set. We show theoretically and on synthetic data that domain constraints improve parameter inference. We apply our model to a case study of cancer risk prediction, showing that the model's inferred risk predicts cancer diagnoses, its inferred testing policy captures known public health policies, and it can identify suboptimalities in test allocation. Though our case study is in healthcare, our analysis reveals a general class of domain constraints which can improve model estimation in many settings.

We propose a novel neural network architecture, the normalized Transformer (nGPT) with representation learning on the hypersphere. In nGPT, all vectors forming the embeddings, MLP, attention matrices and hidden states are unit norm normalized. The input stream of tokens travels on the surface of a hypersphere, with each layer contributing a displacement towards the target output predictions. These displacements are defined by the MLP and attention blocks, whose vector components also reside on the same hypersphere. Experiments show that nGPT learns much faster, reducing the number of training steps required to achieve the same accuracy by a factor of 4 to 20, depending on the sequence length.

Recent research on time series foundation models has primarily focused on forecasting, leaving it unclear how generalizable their learned representations are. In this study, we examine whether frozen pre-trained forecasting models can provide effective representations for classification. To this end, we compare different representation extraction strategies and introduce two model-agnostic embedding augmentations. Our experiments show that the best forecasting models achieve classification accuracy that matches or even surpasses that of state-of-the-art models pre-trained specifically for classification. Moreover, we observe a positive correlation between forecasting and classification performance. These findings challenge the assumption that task-specific pre-training is necessary, and suggest that learning to forecast may provide a powerful route toward constructing general-purpose time series foundation models.

Designing robust and accurate predictive models for stock price prediction has been an active area of research for a long time. While on one side, the supporters of the efficient market hypothesis claim that it is impossible to forecast stock prices accurately, many researchers believe otherwise. There exist propositions in the literature that have demonstrated that if properly designed and optimized, predictive models can very accurately and reliably predict future values of stock prices. This paper presents a suite of deep learning based models for stock price prediction. We use the historical records of the NIFTY 50 index listed in the National Stock Exchange of India, during the period from December 29, 2008 to July 31, 2020, for training and testing the models. Our proposition includes two regression models built on convolutional neural networks and three long and short term memory network based predictive models. To forecast the open values of the NIFTY 50 index records, we adopted a multi step prediction technique with walk forward validation. In this approach, the open values of the NIFTY 50 index are predicted on a time horizon of one week, and once a week is over, the actual index values are included in the training set before the model is trained again, and the forecasts for the next week are made. We present detailed results on the forecasting accuracies for all our proposed models. The results show that while all the models are very accurate in forecasting the NIFTY 50 open values, the univariate encoder decoder convolutional LSTM with the previous two weeks data as the input is the most accurate model. On the other hand, a univariate CNN model with previous one week data as the input is found to be the fastest model in terms of its execution speed.

High-stakes decision making involves reasoning under uncertainty about the future. In this work, we train language models to make predictions on open-ended forecasting questions. To scale up training data, we synthesize novel forecasting questions from global events reported in daily news, using a fully automated, careful curation recipe. We train the Qwen3 thinking models on our dataset, OpenForesight. To prevent leakage of future information during training and evaluation, we use an offline news corpus, both for data generation and retrieval in our forecasting system. Guided by a small validation set, we show the benefits of retrieval, and an improved reward function for reinforcement learning (RL). Once we obtain our final forecasting system, we perform held-out testing between May to August 2025. Our specialized model, OpenForecaster 8B, matches much larger proprietary models, with our training improving the accuracy, calibration, and consistency of predictions. We find calibration improvements from forecasting training generalize across popular benchmarks. We open-source all our models, code, and data to make research on language model forecasting broadly accessible.

Conformal prediction is a theoretically grounded framework for constructing predictive intervals. We study conformal prediction with missing values in the covariates -- a setting that brings new challenges to uncertainty quantification. We first show that the marginal coverage guarantee of conformal prediction holds on imputed data for any missingness distribution and almost all imputation functions. However, we emphasize that the average coverage varies depending on the pattern of missing values: conformal methods tend to construct prediction intervals that under-cover the response conditionally to some missing patterns. This motivates our novel generalized conformalized quantile regression framework, missing data augmentation, which yields prediction intervals that are valid conditionally to the patterns of missing values, despite their exponential number. We then show that a universally consistent quantile regression algorithm trained on the imputed data is Bayes optimal for the pinball risk, thus achieving valid coverage conditionally to any given data point. Moreover, we examine the case of a linear model, which demonstrates the importance of our proposal in overcoming the heteroskedasticity induced by missing values. Using synthetic and data from critical care, we corroborate our theory and report improved performance of our methods.

This paper presents OLinear, a linear-based multivariate time series forecasting model that operates in an orthogonally transformed domain. Recent forecasting models typically adopt the temporal forecast (TF) paradigm, which directly encode and decode time series in the time domain. However, the entangled step-wise dependencies in series data can hinder the performance of TF. To address this, some forecasters conduct encoding and decoding in the transformed domain using fixed, dataset-independent bases (e.g., sine and cosine signals in the Fourier transform). In contrast, we utilize OrthoTrans, a data-adaptive transformation based on an orthogonal matrix that diagonalizes the series' temporal Pearson correlation matrix. This approach enables more effective encoding and decoding in the decorrelated feature domain and can serve as a plug-in module to enhance existing forecasters. To enhance the representation learning for multivariate time series, we introduce a customized linear layer, NormLin, which employs a normalized weight matrix to capture multivariate dependencies. Empirically, the NormLin module shows a surprising performance advantage over multi-head self-attention, while requiring nearly half the FLOPs. Extensive experiments on 24 benchmarks and 140 forecasting tasks demonstrate that OLinear consistently achieves state-of-the-art performance with high efficiency. Notably, as a plug-in replacement for self-attention, the NormLin module consistently enhances Transformer-based forecasters. The code and datasets are available at https://anonymous.4open.science/r/OLinear

Databases of electronic health records (EHRs) are increasingly used to inform clinical decisions. Machine learning methods can find patterns in EHRs that are predictive of future adverse outcomes. However, statistical models may be built upon patterns of health-seeking behavior that vary across patient subpopulations, leading to poor predictive performance when training on one patient population and predicting on another. This note proposes two tests to better measure and understand model generalization. We use these tests to compare models derived from two data sources: (i) historical medical records, and (ii) electrocardiogram (EKG) waveforms. In a predictive task, we show that EKG-based models can be more stable than EHR-based models across different patient populations.

We present a new distribution-free conformal prediction algorithm for sequential data (e.g., time series), called the sequential predictive conformal inference (SPCI). We specifically account for the nature that time series data are non-exchangeable, and thus many existing conformal prediction algorithms are not applicable. The main idea is to adaptively re-estimate the conditional quantile of non-conformity scores (e.g., prediction residuals), upon exploiting the temporal dependence among them. More precisely, we cast the problem of conformal prediction interval as predicting the quantile of a future residual, given a user-specified point prediction algorithm. Theoretically, we establish asymptotic valid conditional coverage upon extending consistency analyses in quantile regression. Using simulation and real-data experiments, we demonstrate a significant reduction in interval width of SPCI compared to other existing methods under the desired empirical coverage.

This paper studies the prediction of a target z from a pair of random variables (x,y), where the ground-truth predictor is additive E[z mid x,y] = f_star(x) +g_{star}(y). We study the performance of empirical risk minimization (ERM) over functions f+g, f in F and g in G, fit on a given training distribution, but evaluated on a test distribution which exhibits covariate shift. We show that, when the class F is "simpler" than G (measured, e.g., in terms of its metric entropy), our predictor is more resilient to heterogenous covariate shifts in which the shift in x is much greater than that in y. These results rely on a novel H\"older style inequality for the Dudley integral which may be of independent interest. Moreover, we corroborate our theoretical findings with experiments demonstrating improved resilience to shifts in "simpler" features across numerous domains.

This work addresses the challenge of high-quality surface normal estimation from monocular colored inputs (i.e., images and videos), a field which has recently been revolutionized by repurposing diffusion priors. However, previous attempts still struggle with stochastic inference, conflicting with the deterministic nature of the Image2Normal task, and costly ensembling step, which slows down the estimation process. Our method, StableNormal, mitigates the stochasticity of the diffusion process by reducing inference variance, thus producing "Stable-and-Sharp" normal estimates without any additional ensembling process. StableNormal works robustly under challenging imaging conditions, such as extreme lighting, blurring, and low quality. It is also robust against transparent and reflective surfaces, as well as cluttered scenes with numerous objects. Specifically, StableNormal employs a coarse-to-fine strategy, which starts with a one-step normal estimator (YOSO) to derive an initial normal guess, that is relatively coarse but reliable, then followed by a semantic-guided refinement process (SG-DRN) that refines the normals to recover geometric details. The effectiveness of StableNormal is demonstrated through competitive performance in standard datasets such as DIODE-indoor, iBims, ScannetV2 and NYUv2, and also in various downstream tasks, such as surface reconstruction and normal enhancement. These results evidence that StableNormal retains both the "stability" and "sharpness" for accurate normal estimation. StableNormal represents a baby attempt to repurpose diffusion priors for deterministic estimation. To democratize this, code and models have been publicly available in hf.co/Stable-X

Hospitals struggle to predict critical outcomes. Traditional early warning systems, like NEWS and MEWS, rely on static variables and fixed thresholds, limiting their adaptability, accuracy, and personalization. We previously developed the Enhanced Transformer for Health Outcome Simulation (ETHOS), an AI model that tokenizes patient health timelines (PHTs) from EHRs and uses transformer-based architectures to predict future PHTs. ETHOS is a versatile framework for developing a wide range of applications. In this work, we develop the Adaptive Risk Estimation System (ARES) that leverages ETHOS to compute dynamic, personalized risk probabilities for clinician-defined critical events. ARES also features a personalized explainability module that highlights key clinical factors influencing risk estimates. We evaluated ARES using the MIMIC-IV v2.2 dataset together with its Emergency Department (ED) extension and benchmarked performance against both classical early warning systems and contemporary machine learning models. The entire dataset was tokenized resulting in 285,622 PHTs, comprising over 360 million tokens. ETHOS outperformed benchmark models in predicting hospital admissions, ICU admissions, and prolonged stays, achieving superior AUC scores. Its risk estimates were robust across demographic subgroups, with calibration curves confirming model reliability. The explainability module provided valuable insights into patient-specific risk factors. ARES, powered by ETHOS, advances predictive healthcare AI by delivering dynamic, real-time, personalized risk estimation with patient-specific explainability. Although our results are promising, the clinical impact remains uncertain. Demonstrating ARES's true utility in real-world settings will be the focus of our future work. We release the source code to facilitate future research.

Clinical diagnosis prediction models, when provided with a patient's medical history, aim to detect potential diseases early, facilitating timely intervention and improving prognostic outcomes. However, the inherent scarcity of patient data and large disease candidate space often pose challenges in developing satisfactory models for this intricate task. The exploration of leveraging Large Language Models (LLMs) for encapsulating clinical decision processes has been limited. We introduce MERA, a clinical diagnosis prediction model that bridges pertaining natural language knowledge with medical practice. We apply hierarchical contrastive learning on a disease candidate ranking list to alleviate the large decision space issue. With concept memorization through fine-tuning, we bridge the natural language clinical knowledge with medical codes. Experimental results on MIMIC-III and IV datasets show that MERA achieves the state-of-the-art diagnosis prediction performance and dramatically elevates the diagnosis prediction capabilities of generative LMs.

Normalizing flows are powerful non-parametric statistical models that function as a hybrid between density estimators and generative models. Current learning algorithms for normalizing flows assume that data points are sampled independently, an assumption that is frequently violated in practice, which may lead to erroneous density estimation and data generation. We propose a likelihood objective of normalizing flows incorporating dependencies between the data points, for which we derive a flexible and efficient learning algorithm suitable for different dependency structures. We show that respecting dependencies between observations can improve empirical results on both synthetic and real-world data, and leads to higher statistical power in a downstream application to genome-wide association studies.

Advancements in space telescopes have opened new avenues for gathering vast amounts of data on exoplanet atmosphere spectra. However, accurately extracting chemical and physical properties from these spectra poses significant challenges due to the non-linear nature of the underlying physics. This paper presents novel machine learning models developed by the AstroAI team for the Ariel Data Challenge 2023, where one of the models secured the top position among 293 competitors. Leveraging Normalizing Flows, our models predict the posterior probability distribution of atmospheric parameters under different atmospheric assumptions. Moreover, we introduce an alternative model that exhibits higher performance potential than the winning model, despite scoring lower in the challenge. These findings highlight the need to reevaluate the evaluation metric and prompt further exploration of more efficient and accurate approaches for exoplanet atmosphere spectra analysis. Finally, we present recommendations to enhance the challenge and models, providing valuable insights for future applications on real observational data. These advancements pave the way for more effective and timely analysis of exoplanet atmospheric properties, advancing our understanding of these distant worlds.

An approach to the construction of classifiers from imbalanced datasets is described. A dataset is imbalanced if the classification categories are not approximately equally represented. Often real-world data sets are predominately composed of "normal" examples with only a small percentage of "abnormal" or "interesting" examples. It is also the case that the cost of misclassifying an abnormal (interesting) example as a normal example is often much higher than the cost of the reverse error. Under-sampling of the majority (normal) class has been proposed as a good means of increasing the sensitivity of a classifier to the minority class. This paper shows that a combination of our method of over-sampling the minority (abnormal) class and under-sampling the majority (normal) class can achieve better classifier performance (in ROC space) than only under-sampling the majority class. This paper also shows that a combination of our method of over-sampling the minority class and under-sampling the majority class can achieve better classifier performance (in ROC space) than varying the loss ratios in Ripper or class priors in Naive Bayes. Our method of over-sampling the minority class involves creating synthetic minority class examples. Experiments are performed using C4.5, Ripper and a Naive Bayes classifier. The method is evaluated using the area under the Receiver Operating Characteristic curve (AUC) and the ROC convex hull strategy.

We study multiple rule-based and machine learning (ML) models for sepsis detection. We report the first neural network detection and prediction results on three categories of sepsis. We have used the retrospective Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care (MIMIC)-III dataset, restricted to intensive care unit (ICU) patients. Features for prediction were created from only common vital sign measurements. We show significant improvement of AUC score using neural network based ensemble model compared to single ML and rule-based models. For the detection of sepsis, severe sepsis, and septic shock, our model achieves an AUC of 0.97, 0.96 and 0.91, respectively. Four hours before the positive hours, it predicts the same three categories with an AUC of 0.90, 0.91 and 0.90 respectively. Further, we ranked the features and found that using six vital signs consistently provides higher detection and prediction AUC for all the models tested. Our novel ensemble model achieves highest AUC in detecting and predicting sepsis, severe sepsis, and septic shock in the MIMIC-III ICU patients, and is amenable to deployment in hospital settings.

Learning the tail behavior of a distribution is a notoriously difficult problem. By definition, the number of samples from the tail is small, and deep generative models, such as normalizing flows, tend to concentrate on learning the body of the distribution. In this paper, we focus on improving the ability of normalizing flows to correctly capture the tail behavior and, thus, form more accurate models. We prove that the marginal tailedness of an autoregressive flow can be controlled via the tailedness of the marginals of its base distribution. This theoretical insight leads us to a novel type of flows based on flexible base distributions and data-driven linear layers. An empirical analysis shows that the proposed method improves on the accuracy -- especially on the tails of the distribution -- and is able to generate heavy-tailed data. We demonstrate its application on a weather and climate example, in which capturing the tail behavior is essential.

We present a foundation model-derived method to identify highly informative tokens and events in electronic health records. Our approach considers incoming data in the entire context of a patient's hospitalization and so can flag anomalous events that rule-based approaches would consider within a normal range. We demonstrate that the events our model flags are significant for predicting downstream patient outcomes and that a fraction of events identified as carrying little information can safely be dropped. Additionally, we show how informativeness can help interpret the predictions of prognostic models trained on foundation model-derived representations.

Clinical notes contain information about patients that goes beyond structured data like lab values and medications. However, clinical notes have been underused relative to structured data, because notes are high-dimensional and sparse. This work develops and evaluates representations of clinical notes using bidirectional transformers (ClinicalBERT). ClinicalBERT uncovers high-quality relationships between medical concepts as judged by humans. ClinicalBert outperforms baselines on 30-day hospital readmission prediction using both discharge summaries and the first few days of notes in the intensive care unit. Code and model parameters are available.

Over the past decade, machine learning has revolutionized computers' ability to analyze text through flexible computational models. Due to their structural similarity to written language, transformer-based architectures have also shown promise as tools to make sense of a range of multi-variate sequences from protein-structures, music, electronic health records to weather-forecasts. We can also represent human lives in a way that shares this structural similarity to language. From one perspective, lives are simply sequences of events: People are born, visit the pediatrician, start school, move to a new location, get married, and so on. Here, we exploit this similarity to adapt innovations from natural language processing to examine the evolution and predictability of human lives based on detailed event sequences. We do this by drawing on arguably the most comprehensive registry data in existence, available for an entire nation of more than six million individuals across decades. Our data include information about life-events related to health, education, occupation, income, address, and working hours, recorded with day-to-day resolution. We create embeddings of life-events in a single vector space showing that this embedding space is robust and highly structured. Our models allow us to predict diverse outcomes ranging from early mortality to personality nuances, outperforming state-of-the-art models by a wide margin. Using methods for interpreting deep learning models, we probe the algorithm to understand the factors that enable our predictions. Our framework allows researchers to identify new potential mechanisms that impact life outcomes and associated possibilities for personalized interventions.

Machine learning models are often used to inform real world risk assessment tasks: predicting consumer default risk, predicting whether a person suffers from a serious illness, or predicting a person's risk to appear in court. Given multiple models that perform almost equally well for a prediction task, to what extent do predictions vary across these models? If predictions are relatively consistent for similar models, then the standard approach of choosing the model that optimizes a penalized loss suffices. But what if predictions vary significantly for similar models? In machine learning, this is referred to as predictive multiplicity i.e. the prevalence of conflicting predictions assigned by near-optimal competing models. In this paper, we present a framework for measuring predictive multiplicity in probabilistic classification (predicting the probability of a positive outcome). We introduce measures that capture the variation in risk estimates over the set of competing models, and develop optimization-based methods to compute these measures efficiently and reliably for convex empirical risk minimization problems. We demonstrate the incidence and prevalence of predictive multiplicity in real-world tasks. Further, we provide insight into how predictive multiplicity arises by analyzing the relationship between predictive multiplicity and data set characteristics (outliers, separability, and majority-minority structure). Our results emphasize the need to report predictive multiplicity more widely.

There has been increasing interest in modeling survival data using deep learning methods in medical research. In this paper, we proposed a Bayesian hierarchical deep neural networks model for modeling and prediction of survival data. Compared with previously studied methods, the new proposal can provide not only point estimate of survival probability but also quantification of the corresponding uncertainty, which can be of crucial importance in predictive modeling and subsequent decision making. The favorable statistical properties of point and uncertainty estimates were demonstrated by simulation studies and real data analysis. The Python code implementing the proposed approach was provided.

Complex prediction models such as deep learning are the output from fitting machine learning, neural networks, or AI models to a set of training data. These are now standard tools in science. A key challenge with the current generation of models is that they are highly parameterized, which makes describing and interpreting the prediction strategies difficult. We use topological data analysis to transform these complex prediction models into pictures representing a topological view. The result is a map of the predictions that enables inspection. The methods scale up to large datasets across different domains and enable us to detect labeling errors in training data, understand generalization in image classification, and inspect predictions of likely pathogenic mutations in the BRCA1 gene.

Tangles were originally introduced as a concept to formalize regions of high connectivity in graphs. In recent years, they have also been discovered as a link between structural graph theory and data science: when interpreting similarity in data sets as connectivity between points, finding clusters in the data essentially amounts to finding tangles in the underlying graphs. This paper further explores the potential of tangles in data sets as a means for a formal study of clusters. Real-world data often follow a normal distribution. Accounting for this, we develop a quantitative theory of tangles in data sets drawn from Gaussian mixtures. To this end, we equip the data with a graph structure that models similarity between the points and allows us to apply tangle theory to the data. We provide explicit conditions under which tangles associated with the marginal Gaussian distributions exist asymptotically almost surely. This can be considered as a sufficient formal criterion for the separabability of clusters in the data.

Standard infinite-width limits of neural networks sacrifice the ability for intermediate layers to learn representations from data. Recent work (A theory of representation learning gives a deep generalisation of kernel methods, Yang et al. 2023) modified the Neural Network Gaussian Process (NNGP) limit of Bayesian neural networks so that representation learning is retained. Furthermore, they found that applying this modified limit to a deep Gaussian process gives a practical learning algorithm which they dubbed the deep kernel machine (DKM). However, they only considered the simplest possible setting: regression in small, fully connected networks with e.g. 10 input features. Here, we introduce convolutional deep kernel machines. This required us to develop a novel inter-domain inducing point approximation, as well as introducing and experimentally assessing a number of techniques not previously seen in DKMs, including analogues to batch normalisation, different likelihoods, and different types of top-layer. The resulting model trains in roughly 77 GPU hours, achieving around 99% test accuracy on MNIST, 72% on CIFAR-100, and 92.7% on CIFAR-10, which is SOTA for kernel methods.

Reliable probability estimation is of crucial importance in many real-world applications where there is inherent (aleatoric) uncertainty. Probability-estimation models are trained on observed outcomes (e.g. whether it has rained or not, or whether a patient has died or not), because the ground-truth probabilities of the events of interest are typically unknown. The problem is therefore analogous to binary classification, with the difference that the objective is to estimate probabilities rather than predicting the specific outcome. This work investigates probability estimation from high-dimensional data using deep neural networks. There exist several methods to improve the probabilities generated by these models but they mostly focus on model (epistemic) uncertainty. For problems with inherent uncertainty, it is challenging to evaluate performance without access to ground-truth probabilities. To address this, we build a synthetic dataset to study and compare different computable metrics. We evaluate existing methods on the synthetic data as well as on three real-world probability estimation tasks, all of which involve inherent uncertainty: precipitation forecasting from radar images, predicting cancer patient survival from histopathology images, and predicting car crashes from dashcam videos. We also give a theoretical analysis of a model for high-dimensional probability estimation which reproduces several of the phenomena evinced in our experiments. Finally, we propose a new method for probability estimation using neural networks, which modifies the training process to promote output probabilities that are consistent with empirical probabilities computed from the data. The method outperforms existing approaches on most metrics on the simulated as well as real-world data.

Quantitative tools are increasingly appealing for decision support in healthcare, driven by the growing capabilities of advanced AI systems. However, understanding the predictive uncertainties surrounding a tool's output is crucial for decision-makers to ensure reliable and transparent decisions. In this paper, we present a case study on pulmonary nodule detection for lung cancer screening, enhancing an advanced detection model with an uncertainty quantification technique called conformal risk control (CRC). We demonstrate that prediction sets with conformal guarantees are attractive measures of predictive uncertainty in the safety-critical healthcare domain, allowing end-users to achieve arbitrary validity by trading off false positives and providing formal statistical guarantees on model performance. Among ground-truth nodules annotated by at least three radiologists, our model achieves a sensitivity that is competitive with that generally achieved by individual radiologists, with a slight increase in false positives. Furthermore, we illustrate the risks of using off-the-shelve prediction models when faced with ontological uncertainty, such as when radiologists disagree on what constitutes the ground truth on pulmonary nodules.

Anomaly detection (AD) is a machine learning task that identifies anomalies by learning patterns from normal training data. In many real-world scenarios, anomalies vary in severity, from minor anomalies with little risk to severe abnormalities requiring immediate attention. However, existing models primarily operate in a binary setting, and the anomaly scores they produce are usually based on the deviation of data points from normal data, which may not accurately reflect practical severity. In this paper, we address this gap by making three key contributions. First, we propose a novel setting, Multilevel AD (MAD), in which the anomaly score represents the severity of anomalies in real-world applications, and we highlight its diverse applications across various domains. Second, we introduce a novel benchmark, MAD-Bench, that evaluates models not only on their ability to detect anomalies, but also on how effectively their anomaly scores reflect severity. This benchmark incorporates multiple types of baselines and real-world applications involving severity. Finally, we conduct a comprehensive performance analysis on MAD-Bench. We evaluate models on their ability to assign severity-aligned scores, investigate the correspondence between their performance on binary and multilevel detection, and study their robustness. This analysis offers key insights into improving AD models for practical severity alignment. The code framework and datasets used for the benchmark will be made publicly available.

While large language models have rapidly evolved towards general artificial intelligence, their versatility in analyzing time series data remains limited. To address this limitation, we propose a novel normalization technique that considers the inherent nature of tokenization. The proposed Tokenization-Optimized Normalization (TOKON) simplifies time series data by representing each element with a single token, effectively reducing the number of tokens by 2 to 3 times. Additionally, we introduce a novel prompt for time series forecasting, termed Time Series Forecasting with Care (TFSC), to further enhance forecasting performance. Experimental results demonstrate that TOKON improves root mean square error (RMSE) for multi-step forecasting by approximately 7% to 18%, depending on the dataset and prompting method. Furthermore, TFSC, when used in conjunction with TOKON, shows additional improvements in forecasting accuracy for certain datasets

In this paper, we present a new approach to time series forecasting. Time series data are prevalent in many scientific and engineering disciplines. Time series forecasting is a crucial task in modeling time series data, and is an important area of machine learning. In this work we developed a novel method that employs Transformer-based machine learning models to forecast time series data. This approach works by leveraging self-attention mechanisms to learn complex patterns and dynamics from time series data. Moreover, it is a generic framework and can be applied to univariate and multivariate time series data, as well as time series embeddings. Using influenza-like illness (ILI) forecasting as a case study, we show that the forecasting results produced by our approach are favorably comparable to the state-of-the-art.

We propose a novel approach to conformal prediction for generative language models (LMs). Standard conformal prediction produces prediction sets -- in place of single predictions -- that have rigorous, statistical performance guarantees. LM responses are typically sampled from the model's predicted distribution over the large, combinatorial output space of natural language. Translating this process to conformal prediction, we calibrate a stopping rule for sampling different outputs from the LM that get added to a growing set of candidates until we are confident that the output set is sufficient. Since some samples may be low-quality, we also simultaneously calibrate and apply a rejection rule for removing candidates from the output set to reduce noise. Similar to conformal prediction, we prove that the sampled set returned by our procedure contains at least one acceptable answer with high probability, while still being empirically precise (i.e., small) on average. Furthermore, within this set of candidate responses, we show that we can also accurately identify subsets of individual components -- such as phrases or sentences -- that are each independently correct (e.g., that are not "hallucinations"), again with statistical guarantees. We demonstrate the promise of our approach on multiple tasks in open-domain question answering, text summarization, and radiology report generation using different LM variants.

Multivariate probabilistic time series forecasts are commonly evaluated via proper scoring rules, i.e., functions that are minimal in expectation for the ground-truth distribution. However, this property is not sufficient to guarantee good discrimination in the non-asymptotic regime. In this paper, we provide the first systematic finite-sample study of proper scoring rules for time-series forecasting evaluation. Through a power analysis, we identify the "region of reliability" of a scoring rule, i.e., the set of practical conditions where it can be relied on to identify forecasting errors. We carry out our analysis on a comprehensive synthetic benchmark, specifically designed to test several key discrepancies between ground-truth and forecast distributions, and we gauge the generalizability of our findings to real-world tasks with an application to an electricity production problem. Our results reveal critical shortcomings in the evaluation of multivariate probabilistic forecasts as commonly performed in the literature.

Conformal prediction is a framework for predictive inference with a distribution-free, finite-sample guarantee. However, it tends to provide uninformative prediction sets when calibration data are scarce. This paper introduces Synthetic-powered predictive inference (SPI), a novel framework that incorporates synthetic data -- e.g., from a generative model -- to improve sample efficiency. At the core of our method is a score transporter: an empirical quantile mapping that aligns nonconformity scores from trusted, real data with those from synthetic data. By carefully integrating the score transporter into the calibration process, SPI provably achieves finite-sample coverage guarantees without making any assumptions about the real and synthetic data distributions. When the score distributions are well aligned, SPI yields substantially tighter and more informative prediction sets than standard conformal prediction. Experiments on image classification -- augmenting data with synthetic diffusion-model generated images -- and on tabular regression demonstrate notable improvements in predictive efficiency in data-scarce settings.

Developing clinical prediction models (e.g., mortality prediction) based on electronic health records (EHRs) typically relies on expert opinion for feature selection and adjusting observation window size. This burdens experts and creates a bottleneck in the development process. We propose Retrieval-Enhanced Medical prediction model (REMed) to address such challenges. REMed can essentially evaluate an unlimited number of clinical events, select the relevant ones, and make predictions. This approach effectively eliminates the need for manual feature selection and enables an unrestricted observation window. We verified these properties through experiments on 27 clinical tasks and two independent cohorts from publicly available EHR datasets, where REMed outperformed other contemporary architectures that aim to handle as many events as possible. Notably, we found that the preferences of REMed align closely with those of medical experts. We expect our approach to significantly expedite the development of EHR prediction models by minimizing clinicians' need for manual involvement.

Anomaly detection methods identify examples that do not follow the expected behaviour, typically in an unsupervised fashion, by assigning real-valued anomaly scores to the examples based on various heuristics. These scores need to be transformed into actual predictions by thresholding, so that the proportion of examples marked as anomalies equals the expected proportion of anomalies, called contamination factor. Unfortunately, there are no good methods for estimating the contamination factor itself. We address this need from a Bayesian perspective, introducing a method for estimating the posterior distribution of the contamination factor of a given unlabeled dataset. We leverage on outputs of several anomaly detectors as a representation that already captures the basic notion of anomalousness and estimate the contamination using a specific mixture formulation. Empirically on 22 datasets, we show that the estimated distribution is well-calibrated and that setting the threshold using the posterior mean improves the anomaly detectors' performance over several alternative methods. All code is publicly available for full reproducibility.

Transformers have achieved great success in machine learning applications. Normalization techniques, such as Layer Normalization (LayerNorm, LN) and Root Mean Square Normalization (RMSNorm), play a critical role in accelerating and stabilizing the training of Transformers. While LayerNorm recenters and rescales input vectors, RMSNorm only rescales the vectors by their RMS value. Despite being more computationally efficient, RMSNorm may compromise the representation ability of Transformers. There is currently no consensus regarding the preferred normalization technique, as some models employ LayerNorm while others utilize RMSNorm, especially in recent large language models. It is challenging to convert Transformers with one normalization to the other type. While there is an ongoing disagreement between the two normalization types, we propose a solution to unify two mainstream Transformer architectures, Pre-LN and Pre-RMSNorm Transformers. By removing the inherent redundant mean information in the main branch of Pre-LN Transformers, we can reduce LayerNorm to RMSNorm, achieving higher efficiency. We further propose the Compressed RMSNorm (CRMSNorm) and Pre-CRMSNorm Transformer based on a lossless compression of the zero-mean vectors. We formally establish the equivalence of Pre-LN, Pre-RMSNorm, and Pre-CRMSNorm Transformer variants in both training and inference. It implies that Pre-LN Transformers can be substituted with Pre-(C)RMSNorm counterparts at almost no cost, offering the same arithmetic functionality along with free efficiency improvement. Experiments demonstrate that we can reduce the training and inference time of Pre-LN Transformers by 1% - 10%.

Homophone normalization, where characters that have the same sound in a writing script are mapped to one character, is a pre-processing step applied in Amharic Natural Language Processing (NLP) literature. While this may improve performance reported by automatic metrics, it also results in models that are not able to understand different forms of writing in a single language. Further, there might be impacts in transfer learning, where models trained on normalized data do not generalize well to other languages. In this paper, we experiment with monolingual training and cross-lingual transfer to understand the impacts of normalization on languages that use the Ge'ez script. We then propose a post-inference intervention in which normalization is applied to model predictions instead of training data. With our simple scheme of post-inference normalization, we show that we can achieve an increase in BLEU score of up to 1.03 while preserving language features in training. Our work contributes to the broader discussion on technology-facilitated language change and calls for more language-aware interventions.

Disease risk prediction has attracted increasing attention in the field of modern healthcare, especially with the latest advances in artificial intelligence (AI). Electronic health records (EHRs), which contain heterogeneous patient information, are widely used in disease risk prediction tasks. One challenge of applying AI models for risk prediction lies in generating interpretable evidence to support the prediction results while retaining the prediction ability. In order to address this problem, we propose the method of jointly embedding words and labels whereby attention modules learn the weights of words from medical notes according to their relevance to the names of risk prediction labels. This approach boosts interpretability by employing an attention mechanism and including the names of prediction tasks in the model. However, its application is only limited to the handling of textual inputs such as medical notes. In this paper, we propose a label dependent attention model LDAM to 1) improve the interpretability by exploiting Clinical-BERT (a biomedical language model pre-trained on a large clinical corpus) to encode biomedically meaningful features and labels jointly; 2) extend the idea of joint embedding to the processing of time-series data, and develop a multi-modal learning framework for integrating heterogeneous information from medical notes and time-series health status indicators. To demonstrate our method, we apply LDAM to the MIMIC-III dataset to predict different disease risks. We evaluate our method both quantitatively and qualitatively. Specifically, the predictive power of LDAM will be shown, and case studies will be carried out to illustrate its interpretability.

Deep learning models achieve state-of-the art results in predicting blood glucose trajectories, with a wide range of architectures being proposed. However, the adaptation of such models in clinical practice is slow, largely due to the lack of uncertainty quantification of provided predictions. In this work, we propose to model the future glucose trajectory conditioned on the past as an infinite mixture of basis distributions (i.e., Gaussian, Laplace, etc.). This change allows us to learn the uncertainty and predict more accurately in the cases when the trajectory has a heterogeneous or multi-modal distribution. To estimate the parameters of the predictive distribution, we utilize the Transformer architecture. We empirically demonstrate the superiority of our method over existing state-of-the-art techniques both in terms of accuracy and uncertainty on the synthetic and benchmark glucose data sets.

Neonatal death is still a concerning reality for underdeveloped and even some developed countries. Worldwide data indicate that 26.693 babies out of 1,000 births die, according to Macro Trades. To reduce this number, early prediction of endangered babies is crucial. Such prediction enables the opportunity to take ample care of the child and mother so that early child death can be avoided. In this context, machine learning was used to determine whether a newborn baby is at risk. To train the predictive model, historical data of 1.4 million newborns was used. Machine learning and deep learning techniques such as logical regression, K-nearest neighbor, random forest classifier, extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost), convolutional neural network, and long short-term memory (LSTM) were implemented using the dataset to identify the most accurate model for predicting neonatal mortality. Among the machine learning algorithms, XGBoost and random forest classifier achieved the best accuracy with 94%, while among the deep learning models, LSTM delivered the highest accuracy with 99%. Therefore, using LSTM appears to be the most suitable approach to predict whether precautionary measures for a child are necessary.

Anomaly detection (AD) is essential for industrial inspection, yet existing methods typically rely on ``comparing'' test images to normal references from a training set. However, variations in appearance and positioning often complicate the alignment of these references with the test image, limiting detection accuracy. We observe that most anomalies manifest as local variations, meaning that even within anomalous images, valuable normal information remains. We argue that this information is useful and may be more aligned with the anomalies since both the anomalies and the normal information originate from the same image. Therefore, rather than relying on external normality from the training set, we propose INP-Former, a novel method that extracts Intrinsic Normal Prototypes (INPs) directly from the test image. Specifically, we introduce the INP Extractor, which linearly combines normal tokens to represent INPs. We further propose an INP Coherence Loss to ensure INPs can faithfully represent normality for the testing image. These INPs then guide the INP-Guided Decoder to reconstruct only normal tokens, with reconstruction errors serving as anomaly scores. Additionally, we propose a Soft Mining Loss to prioritize hard-to-optimize samples during training. INP-Former achieves state-of-the-art performance in single-class, multi-class, and few-shot AD tasks across MVTec-AD, VisA, and Real-IAD, positioning it as a versatile and universal solution for AD. Remarkably, INP-Former also demonstrates some zero-shot AD capability. Code is available at:https://github.com/luow23/INP-Former.

A wide body of evidence shows that human language processing difficulty is predicted by the information-theoretic measure surprisal, a word's negative log probability in context. However, it is still unclear how to best estimate these probabilities needed for predicting human processing difficulty -- while a long-standing belief held that models with lower perplexity would provide more accurate estimates of word predictability, and therefore lead to better reading time predictions, recent work has shown that for very large models, psycholinguistic predictive power decreases. One reason could be that language models might be more confident of their predictions than humans, because they have had exposure to several magnitudes more data. In this paper, we test what effect temperature-scaling of large language model (LLM) predictions has on surprisal estimates and their predictive power of reading times of English texts. Firstly, we show that calibration of large language models typically improves with model size, i.e. poorer calibration cannot account for poorer fit to reading times. Secondly, we find that temperature-scaling probabilities lead to a systematically better fit to reading times (up to 89% improvement in delta log likelihood), across several reading time corpora. Finally, we show that this improvement in fit is chiefly driven by words that are composed of multiple subword tokens.

We develop a method to generate predictive regions that cover a multivariate response variable with a user-specified probability. Our work is composed of two components. First, we use a deep generative model to learn a representation of the response that has a unimodal distribution. Existing multiple-output quantile regression approaches are effective in such cases, so we apply them on the learned representation, and then transform the solution to the original space of the response. This process results in a flexible and informative region that can have an arbitrary shape, a property that existing methods lack. Second, we propose an extension of conformal prediction to the multivariate response setting that modifies any method to return sets with a pre-specified coverage level. The desired coverage is theoretically guaranteed in the finite-sample case for any distribution. Experiments conducted on both real and synthetic data show that our method constructs regions that are significantly smaller compared to existing techniques.

This paper introduces LAFT, a novel feature transformation method designed to incorporate user knowledge and preferences into anomaly detection using natural language. Accurately modeling the boundary of normality is crucial for distinguishing abnormal data, but this is often challenging due to limited data or the presence of nuisance attributes. While unsupervised methods that rely solely on data without user guidance are common, they may fail to detect anomalies of specific interest. To address this limitation, we propose Language-Assisted Feature Transformation (LAFT), which leverages the shared image-text embedding space of vision-language models to transform visual features according to user-defined requirements. Combined with anomaly detection methods, LAFT effectively aligns visual features with user preferences, allowing anomalies of interest to be detected. Extensive experiments on both toy and real-world datasets validate the effectiveness of our method.

We introduce a boosting algorithm to pre-process data for fairness. Starting from an initial fair but inaccurate distribution, our approach shifts towards better data fitting while still ensuring a minimal fairness guarantee. To do so, it learns the sufficient statistics of an exponential family with boosting-compliant convergence. Importantly, we are able to theoretically prove that the learned distribution will have a representation rate and statistical rate data fairness guarantee. Unlike recent optimization based pre-processing methods, our approach can be easily adapted for continuous domain features. Furthermore, when the weak learners are specified to be decision trees, the sufficient statistics of the learned distribution can be examined to provide clues on sources of (un)fairness. Empirical results are present to display the quality of result on real-world data.

In the past couple of years, various approaches to representing and quantifying different types of predictive uncertainty in machine learning, notably in the setting of classification, have been proposed on the basis of second-order probability distributions, i.e., predictions in the form of distributions on probability distributions. A completely conclusive solution has not yet been found, however, as shown by recent criticisms of commonly used uncertainty measures associated with second-order distributions, identifying undesirable theoretical properties of these measures. In light of these criticisms, we propose a set of formal criteria that meaningful uncertainty measures for predictive uncertainty based on second-order distributions should obey. Moreover, we provide a general framework for developing uncertainty measures to account for these criteria, and offer an instantiation based on the Wasserstein distance, for which we prove that all criteria are satisfied.

Pulmonary Hypertension (PH) is a severe disease characterized by an elevated pulmonary artery pressure. The gold standard for PH diagnosis is measurement of mean Pulmonary Artery Pressure (mPAP) during an invasive Right Heart Catheterization. In this paper, we investigate noninvasive approach to PH detection utilizing Magnetic Resonance Imaging, Computer Models and Machine Learning. We show using the ablation study, that physics-informed feature engineering based on models of blood circulation increases the performance of Gradient Boosting Decision Trees-based algorithms for classification of PH and regression of values of mPAP. We compare results of regression (with thresholding of estimated mPAP) and classification and demonstrate that metrics achieved in both experiments are comparable. The predicted mPAP values are more informative to the physicians than the probability of PH returned by classification models. They provide the intuitive explanation of the outcome of the machine learning model (clinicians are accustomed to the mPAP metric, contrary to the PH probability).

Weather forecasting is critical for a range of human activities including transportation, agriculture, industry, as well as the safety of the general public. Machine learning models have the potential to transform the complex weather prediction pipeline, but current approaches still rely on numerical weather prediction (NWP) systems, limiting forecast speed and accuracy. Here we demonstrate that a machine learning model can replace the entire operational NWP pipeline. Aardvark Weather, an end-to-end data-driven weather prediction system, ingests raw observations and outputs global gridded forecasts and local station forecasts. Further, it can be optimised end-to-end to maximise performance over quantities of interest. Global forecasts outperform an operational NWP baseline for multiple variables and lead times. Local station forecasts are skillful up to ten days lead time and achieve comparable and often lower errors than a post-processed global NWP baseline and a state-of-the-art end-to-end forecasting system with input from human forecasters. These forecasts are produced with a remarkably simple neural process model using just 8% of the input data and three orders of magnitude less compute than existing NWP and hybrid AI-NWP methods. We anticipate that Aardvark Weather will be the starting point for a new generation of end-to-end machine learning models for medium-range forecasting that will reduce computational costs by orders of magnitude and enable the rapid and cheap creation of bespoke models for users in a variety of fields, including for the developing world where state-of-the-art local models are not currently available.

In light of recent work on scheduling with predicted job sizes, we consider the effect of the cost of predictions in queueing systems, removing the assumption in prior research that predictions are external to the system's resources and/or cost-free. In particular, we introduce a novel approach to utilizing predictions, SkipPredict, designed to address their inherent cost. Rather than uniformly applying predictions to all jobs, we propose a tailored approach that categorizes jobs based on their prediction requirements. To achieve this, we employ one-bit "cheap predictions" to classify jobs as either short or long. SkipPredict prioritizes predicted short jobs over long jobs, and for the latter, SkipPredict applies a second round of more detailed "expensive predictions" to approximate Shortest Remaining Processing Time for these jobs. Our analysis takes into account the cost of prediction. We examine the effect of this cost for two distinct models. In the external cost model, predictions are generated by some external method without impacting job service times but incur a cost. In the server time cost model, predictions themselves require server processing time, and are scheduled on the same server as the jobs.

Predicting mortality-related outcomes from images offers the prospect of accessible, noninvasive, and scalable health screening. We present a method that leverages pretrained vision transformer foundation models to estimate remaining lifespan from facial and whole-body images, alongside robust uncertainty quantification. We show that predictive uncertainty varies systematically with the true remaining lifespan, and that this uncertainty can be effectively modeled by learning a Gaussian distribution for each sample. Our approach achieves state-of-the-art mean absolute error (MAE) of 7.48 years on an established Dataset, and further improves to 4.79 and 5.07 years MAE on two new, higher-quality datasets curated and published in this work. Importantly, our models provide well-calibrated uncertainty estimates, as demonstrated by a bucketed expected calibration error of 0.62 years. While not intended for clinical deployment, these results highlight the potential of extracting medically relevant signals from images. We make all code and datasets available to facilitate further research.

The COVID-19 pandemic has posed a heavy burden to the healthcare system worldwide and caused huge social disruption and economic loss. Many deep learning models have been proposed to conduct clinical predictive tasks such as mortality prediction for COVID-19 patients in intensive care units using Electronic Health Record (EHR) data. Despite their initial success in certain clinical applications, there is currently a lack of benchmarking results to achieve a fair comparison so that we can select the optimal model for clinical use. Furthermore, there is a discrepancy between the formulation of traditional prediction tasks and real-world clinical practice in intensive care. To fill these gaps, we propose two clinical prediction tasks, Outcome-specific length-of-stay prediction and Early mortality prediction for COVID-19 patients in intensive care units. The two tasks are adapted from the naive length-of-stay and mortality prediction tasks to accommodate the clinical practice for COVID-19 patients. We propose fair, detailed, open-source data-preprocessing pipelines and evaluate 17 state-of-the-art predictive models on two tasks, including 5 machine learning models, 6 basic deep learning models and 6 deep learning predictive models specifically designed for EHR data. We provide benchmarking results using data from two real-world COVID-19 EHR datasets. One dataset is publicly available without needing any inquiry and another dataset can be accessed on request. We provide fair, reproducible benchmarking results for two tasks. We deploy all experiment results and models on an online platform. We also allow clinicians and researchers to upload their data to the platform and get quick prediction results using our trained models. We hope our efforts can further facilitate deep learning and machine learning research for COVID-19 predictive modeling.

We study the connection between multicalibration and boosting for squared error regression. First we prove a useful characterization of multicalibration in terms of a ``swap regret'' like condition on squared error. Using this characterization, we give an exceedingly simple algorithm that can be analyzed both as a boosting algorithm for regression and as a multicalibration algorithm for a class H that makes use only of a standard squared error regression oracle for H. We give a weak learning assumption on H that ensures convergence to Bayes optimality without the need to make any realizability assumptions -- giving us an agnostic boosting algorithm for regression. We then show that our weak learning assumption on H is both necessary and sufficient for multicalibration with respect to H to imply Bayes optimality. We also show that if H satisfies our weak learning condition relative to another class C then multicalibration with respect to H implies multicalibration with respect to C. Finally we investigate the empirical performance of our algorithm experimentally using an open source implementation that we make available. Our code repository can be found at https://github.com/Declancharrison/Level-Set-Boosting.

Predicting the future is of great interest across many aspects of human activity. Businesses are interested in future trends, traders are interested in future stock prices, and companies are highly interested in future technological breakthroughs. While there are many automated systems for predicting future numerical data, such as weather, stock prices, and demand for products, there is relatively little work in automatically predicting textual data. Humans are interested in textual data predictions because it is a natural format for our consumption, and experts routinely make predictions in a textual format (Christensen et al., 2004; Tetlock & Gardner, 2015; Frick, 2015). However, there has been relatively little formalization of this general problem in the machine learning or natural language processing communities. To address this gap, we introduce the task of future language modeling: probabilistic modeling of texts in the future based on a temporal history of texts. To our knowledge, our work is the first work to formalize the task of predicting the future in this way. We show that it is indeed possible to build future language models that improve upon strong non-temporal language model baselines, opening the door to working on this important, and widely applicable problem.

For a long-time, researchers have been developing a reliable and accurate predictive model for stock price prediction. According to the literature, if predictive models are correctly designed and refined, they can painstakingly and faithfully estimate future stock values. This paper demonstrates a set of time series, econometric, and various learning-based models for stock price prediction. The data of Infosys, ICICI, and SUN PHARMA from the period of January 2004 to December 2019 was used here for training and testing the models to know which model performs best in which sector. One time series model (Holt-Winters Exponential Smoothing), one econometric model (ARIMA), two machine Learning models (Random Forest and MARS), and two deep learning-based models (simple RNN and LSTM) have been included in this paper. MARS has been proved to be the best performing machine learning model, while LSTM has proved to be the best performing deep learning model. But overall, for all three sectors - IT (on Infosys data), Banking (on ICICI data), and Health (on SUN PHARMA data), MARS has proved to be the best performing model in sales forecasting.

With the rise of the Internet, there is a growing need to build intelligent systems that are capable of efficiently dealing with early risk detection (ERD) problems on social media, such as early depression detection, early rumor detection or identification of sexual predators. These systems, nowadays mostly based on machine learning techniques, must be able to deal with data streams since users provide their data over time. In addition, these systems must be able to decide when the processed data is sufficient to actually classify users. Moreover, since ERD tasks involve risky decisions by which people's lives could be affected, such systems must also be able to justify their decisions. However, most standard and state-of-the-art supervised machine learning models are not well suited to deal with this scenario. This is due to the fact that they either act as black boxes or do not support incremental classification/learning. In this paper we introduce SS3, a novel supervised learning model for text classification that naturally supports these aspects. SS3 was designed to be used as a general framework to deal with ERD problems. We evaluated our model on the CLEF's eRisk2017 pilot task on early depression detection. Most of the 30 contributions submitted to this competition used state-of-the-art methods. Experimental results show that our classifier was able to outperform these models and standard classifiers, despite being less computationally expensive and having the ability to explain its rationale.

We present the findings of "The Alzheimer's Disease Prediction Of Longitudinal Evolution" (TADPOLE) Challenge, which compared the performance of 92 algorithms from 33 international teams at predicting the future trajectory of 219 individuals at risk of Alzheimer's disease. Challenge participants were required to make a prediction, for each month of a 5-year future time period, of three key outcomes: clinical diagnosis, Alzheimer's Disease Assessment Scale Cognitive Subdomain (ADAS-Cog13), and total volume of the ventricles. The methods used by challenge participants included multivariate linear regression, machine learning methods such as support vector machines and deep neural networks, as well as disease progression models. No single submission was best at predicting all three outcomes. For clinical diagnosis and ventricle volume prediction, the best algorithms strongly outperform simple baselines in predictive ability. However, for ADAS-Cog13 no single submitted prediction method was significantly better than random guesswork. Two ensemble methods based on taking the mean and median over all predictions, obtained top scores on almost all tasks. Better than average performance at diagnosis prediction was generally associated with the additional inclusion of features from cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) samples and diffusion tensor imaging (DTI). On the other hand, better performance at ventricle volume prediction was associated with inclusion of summary statistics, such as the slope or maxima/minima of biomarkers. TADPOLE's unique results suggest that current prediction algorithms provide sufficient accuracy to exploit biomarkers related to clinical diagnosis and ventricle volume, for cohort refinement in clinical trials for Alzheimer's disease. However, results call into question the usage of cognitive test scores for patient selection and as a primary endpoint in clinical trials.

In the field of decision trees, most previous studies have difficulty ensuring the statistical optimality of a prediction of new data and suffer from overfitting because trees are usually used only to represent prediction functions to be constructed from given data. In contrast, some studies, including this paper, used the trees to represent stochastic data observation processes behind given data. Moreover, they derived the statistically optimal prediction, which is robust against overfitting, based on the Bayesian decision theory by assuming a prior distribution for the trees. However, these studies still have a problem in computing this Bayes optimal prediction because it involves an infeasible summation for all division patterns of a feature space, which is represented by the trees and some parameters. In particular, an open problem is a summation with respect to combinations of division axes, i.e., the assignment of features to inner nodes of the tree. We solve this by a Markov chain Monte Carlo method, whose step size is adaptively tuned according to a posterior distribution for the trees.

Transformer models have achieved remarkable results in a wide range of applications. However, their scalability is hampered by the quadratic time and memory complexity of the self-attention mechanism concerning the sequence length. This limitation poses a substantial obstacle when dealing with long documents or high-resolution images. In this work, we study the self-attention mechanism by analyzing the distribution of the attention matrix and its concentration ability. Furthermore, we propose instruments to measure these quantities and introduce a novel self-attention mechanism, Linear Log-Normal Attention, designed to emulate the distribution and concentration behavior of the original self-attention. Our experimental results on popular natural language benchmarks reveal that our proposed Linear Log-Normal Attention outperforms other linearized attention alternatives, offering a promising avenue for enhancing the scalability of transformer models. Our code is available in supplementary materials.

Survival analysis, or time-to-event modelling, is a classical statistical problem that has garnered a lot of interest for its practical use in epidemiology, demographics or actuarial sciences. Recent advances on the subject from the point of view of machine learning have been concerned with precise per-individual predictions instead of population studies, driven by the rise of individualized medicine. We introduce here a conditional normalizing flow based estimate of the time-to-event density as a way to model highly flexible and individualized conditional survival distributions. We use a novel hierarchical formulation of normalizing flows to enable efficient fitting of flexible conditional distributions without overfitting and show how the normalizing flow formulation can be efficiently adapted to the censored setting. We experimentally validate the proposed approach on a synthetic dataset as well as four open medical datasets and an example of a common financial problem.

Recent advances in machine learning have significantly improved prediction accuracy in various applications. However, ensuring the calibration of probabilistic predictions remains a significant challenge. Despite efforts to enhance model calibration, the rigorous statistical evaluation of model calibration remains less explored. In this work, we develop confidence intervals the ell_2 Expected Calibration Error (ECE). We consider top-1-to-k calibration, which includes both the popular notion of confidence calibration as well as full calibration. For a debiased estimator of the ECE, we show asymptotic normality, but with different convergence rates and asymptotic variances for calibrated and miscalibrated models. We develop methods to construct asymptotically valid confidence intervals for the ECE, accounting for this behavior as well as non-negativity. Our theoretical findings are supported through extensive experiments, showing that our methods produce valid confidence intervals with shorter lengths compared to those obtained by resampling-based methods.

The Kov\'ats Retention index (RI) is a quantity measured using gas chromatography and commonly used in the identification of chemical structures. Creating libraries of observed RI values is a laborious task, so we explore the use of a deep neural network for predicting RI values from structure for standard semipolar columns. This network generated predictions with a mean absolute error of 15.1 and, in a quantification of the tail of the error distribution, a 95th percentile absolute error of 46.5. Because of the Artificial Intelligence Retention Indices (AIRI) network's accuracy, it was used to predict RI values for the NIST EI-MS spectral libraries. These RI values are used to improve chemical identification methods and the quality of the library. Estimating uncertainty is an important practical need when using prediction models. To quantify the uncertainty of our network for each individual prediction, we used the outputs of an ensemble of 8 networks to calculate a predicted standard deviation for each RI value prediction. This predicted standard deviation was corrected to follow the error between observed and predicted RI values. The Z scores using these predicted standard deviations had a standard deviation of 1.52 and a 95th percentile absolute Z score corresponding to a mean RI value of 42.6.

Calibrated uncertainty estimates in machine learning are crucial to many fields such as autonomous vehicles, medicine, and weather and climate forecasting. While there is extensive literature on uncertainty calibration for classification, the classification findings do not always translate to regression. As a result, modern models for predicting uncertainty in regression settings typically produce uncalibrated and overconfident estimates. To address these gaps, we present a calibration method for regression settings that does not assume a particular uncertainty distribution over the error: Calibrating Regression Uncertainty Distributions Empirically (CRUDE). CRUDE makes the weaker assumption that error distributions have a constant arbitrary shape across the output space, shifted by predicted mean and scaled by predicted standard deviation. We detail a theoretical connection between CRUDE and conformal inference. Across an extensive set of regression tasks, CRUDE demonstrates consistently sharper, better calibrated, and more accurate uncertainty estimates than state-of-the-art techniques.