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Jan 27

Predictive Multiplicity in Probabilistic Classification

Machine learning models are often used to inform real world risk assessment tasks: predicting consumer default risk, predicting whether a person suffers from a serious illness, or predicting a person's risk to appear in court. Given multiple models that perform almost equally well for a prediction task, to what extent do predictions vary across these models? If predictions are relatively consistent for similar models, then the standard approach of choosing the model that optimizes a penalized loss suffices. But what if predictions vary significantly for similar models? In machine learning, this is referred to as predictive multiplicity i.e. the prevalence of conflicting predictions assigned by near-optimal competing models. In this paper, we present a framework for measuring predictive multiplicity in probabilistic classification (predicting the probability of a positive outcome). We introduce measures that capture the variation in risk estimates over the set of competing models, and develop optimization-based methods to compute these measures efficiently and reliably for convex empirical risk minimization problems. We demonstrate the incidence and prevalence of predictive multiplicity in real-world tasks. Further, we provide insight into how predictive multiplicity arises by analyzing the relationship between predictive multiplicity and data set characteristics (outliers, separability, and majority-minority structure). Our results emphasize the need to report predictive multiplicity more widely.

  • 3 authors
·
Jun 2, 2022

Resolving Pleiades binary stars with Gaia and speckle interferometric observations

The Pleiades is the most prominent open star cluster visible from Earth and an important benchmark for simple stellar populations, unified by common origin, age, and distance. Binary stars are its essential ingredient, yet their contribution remains uncertain due to heavy observational biases. A resolved multiplicity survey was conducted for a magnitude-limited G < 15mag sample of 423 potential cluster members, including sources with poorly fitted astrometric solutions in Gaia DR3. Speckle interferometric observations at the 2.5 meter telescope of SAI MSU observatory were combined with Gaia data, enabling the identification of 61 resolved binary or multiple systems within the 0.04 - 10 arcsec (5 - 1350 au) separation range. With speckle observations, we discovered 21 components in 20 systems. The existence of a Merope (23 Tau) companion is confirmed after several previous unsuccessful attempts. We show that the Gaia multipeak fraction is a strong predictor of subarcsecond multiplicity, as all sources with ipd_frac_multi_peak > 4% are successfully resolved. We found that 10% of Pleiades stars have a companion with a mass ratio q > 0.5 within projected separation of 27 < s < 1350 au, and confirm a deficit of wide binaries with s > 300 au. An observed dearth of wide pairs with large mass ratio (q > 0.55) may imprint the transition from hard to soft binaries regime at the early stages of cluster evolution. The total binary fraction for q > 0.5 systems is extrapolated to be around 25%.

  • 3 authors
·
Dec 30, 2024

Deriving pulsar pair-production multiplicities from pulsar wind nebulae using H.E.S.S. and LHAASO observations

Pulsar Wind Nebulae (PWNe) dominate the galactic gamma-ray sky at very high energies, and are major contributors to the leptonic cosmic ray flux. However, whether or not pulsars also accelerate ions to comparable energies is not yet experimentally confirmed. We aim to constrain the birth period and pair-production multiplicity for a set of pulsars. In doing so, we aim to constrain the proportion of ions in the pulsar magnetosphere and hence the proportion of ions that could enter the pulsar wind. We estimate possible ranges of the value of the average pair production multiplicity for a sample of 26 pulsars in the Australia Telescope National Facility (ATNF) catalogue, which have also been observed by the High Energy Stereoscopic System (H.E.S.S.) telescopes. We then derive lower limits for the pulsar birth periods and average pair production multiplicities for a subset of these sources where the extent of the pulsar wind nebula and surrounding supernova shell have been measured in the radio. We also derive curves for the average pair production multiplicities as a function of birth period for sources recently observed by the Large High Altitude Air Shower Observatory (LHAASO). We show that there is a potential for hadrons entering the pulsar wind for most of the H.E.S.S. and LHAASO sources we consider, dependent upon the efficiency of luminosity conversion into particles. We also present estimates of the pulsar birth period for six of these sources, which all fall into the range of simeq10-50 ms.

  • 2 authors
·
Feb 3, 2025

CMDBench: A Benchmark for Coarse-to-fine Multimodal Data Discovery in Compound AI Systems

Compound AI systems (CASs) that employ LLMs as agents to accomplish knowledge-intensive tasks via interactions with tools and data retrievers have garnered significant interest within database and AI communities. While these systems have the potential to supplement typical analysis workflows of data analysts in enterprise data platforms, unfortunately, CASs are subject to the same data discovery challenges that analysts have encountered over the years -- silos of multimodal data sources, created across teams and departments within an organization, make it difficult to identify appropriate data sources for accomplishing the task at hand. Existing data discovery benchmarks do not model such multimodality and multiplicity of data sources. Moreover, benchmarks of CASs prioritize only evaluating end-to-end task performance. To catalyze research on evaluating the data discovery performance of multimodal data retrievers in CASs within a real-world setting, we propose CMDBench, a benchmark modeling the complexity of enterprise data platforms. We adapt existing datasets and benchmarks in open-domain -- from question answering and complex reasoning tasks to natural language querying over structured data -- to evaluate coarse- and fine-grained data discovery and task execution performance. Our experiments reveal the impact of data retriever design on downstream task performance -- a 46% drop in task accuracy on average -- across various modalities, data sources, and task difficulty. The results indicate the need to develop optimization strategies to identify appropriate LLM agents and retrievers for efficient execution of CASs over enterprise data.

  • 5 authors
·
Jun 1, 2024

Evidence for a Massive Protocluster in S255N

S255N is a luminous far-infrared source that contains many indications of active star formation but lacks a prominent near-infrared stellar cluster. We present mid-infrared through radio observations aimed at exploring the evolutionary state of this region. Our observations include 1.3mm continuum and spectral line data from the Submillimeter Array, VLA 3.6cm continuum and 1.3cm water maser data, and multicolor IRAC images from the Spitzer Space Telescope. The cometary morphology of the previously-known UCHII region G192.584-0.041 is clearly revealed in our sensitive, multi-configuration 3.6cm images. The 1.3mm continuum emission has been resolved into three compact cores, all of which are dominated by dust emission and have radii < 7000AU. The mass estimates for these cores range from 6 to 35 Msun. The centroid of the brightest dust core (SMA1) is offset by 1.1'' (2800 AU) from the peak of the cometary UCHII region and exhibits the strongest HC3N, CN, and DCN line emission in the region. SMA1 also exhibits compact CH3OH, SiO, and H2CO emission and likely contains a young hot core. We find spatial and kinematic evidence that SMA1 may contain further multiplicity, with one of the components coincident with a newly-detected H2O maser. There are no mid-infrared point source counterparts to any of the dust cores, further suggesting an early evolutionary phase for these objects. The dominant mid-infrared emission is a diffuse, broadband component that traces the surface of the cometary UCHII region but is obscured by foreground material on its southern edge. An additional 4.5 micron linear feature emanating to the northeast of SMA1 is aligned with a cluster of methanol masers and likely traces a outflow from a protostar within SMA1. Our observations provide direct evidence that S255N is forming a cluster of intermediate to high-mass stars.

  • 3 authors
·
Apr 7, 2007

Beyond Preferences in AI Alignment

The dominant practice of AI alignment assumes (1) that preferences are an adequate representation of human values, (2) that human rationality can be understood in terms of maximizing the satisfaction of preferences, and (3) that AI systems should be aligned with the preferences of one or more humans to ensure that they behave safely and in accordance with our values. Whether implicitly followed or explicitly endorsed, these commitments constitute what we term a preferentist approach to AI alignment. In this paper, we characterize and challenge the preferentist approach, describing conceptual and technical alternatives that are ripe for further research. We first survey the limits of rational choice theory as a descriptive model, explaining how preferences fail to capture the thick semantic content of human values, and how utility representations neglect the possible incommensurability of those values. We then critique the normativity of expected utility theory (EUT) for humans and AI, drawing upon arguments showing how rational agents need not comply with EUT, while highlighting how EUT is silent on which preferences are normatively acceptable. Finally, we argue that these limitations motivate a reframing of the targets of AI alignment: Instead of alignment with the preferences of a human user, developer, or humanity-writ-large, AI systems should be aligned with normative standards appropriate to their social roles, such as the role of a general-purpose assistant. Furthermore, these standards should be negotiated and agreed upon by all relevant stakeholders. On this alternative conception of alignment, a multiplicity of AI systems will be able to serve diverse ends, aligned with normative standards that promote mutual benefit and limit harm despite our plural and divergent values.

  • 4 authors
·
Aug 29, 2024

Tensor Decomposition Networks for Fast Machine Learning Interatomic Potential Computations

SO(3)-equivariant networks are the dominant models for machine learning interatomic potentials (MLIPs). The key operation of such networks is the Clebsch-Gordan (CG) tensor product, which is computationally expensive. To accelerate the computation, we develop tensor decomposition networks (TDNs) as a class of approximately equivariant networks in which CG tensor products are replaced by low-rank tensor decompositions, such as the CANDECOMP/PARAFAC (CP) decomposition. With the CP decomposition, we prove (i) a uniform bound on the induced error of SO(3)-equivariance, and (ii) the universality of approximating any equivariant bilinear map. To further reduce the number of parameters, we propose path-weight sharing that ties all multiplicity-space weights across the O(L^3) CG paths into a single shared parameter set without compromising equivariance, where L is the maximum angular degree. The resulting layer acts as a plug-and-play replacement for tensor products in existing networks, and the computational complexity of tensor products is reduced from O(L^6) to O(L^4). We evaluate TDNs on PubChemQCR, a newly curated molecular relaxation dataset containing 105 million DFT-calculated snapshots. We also use existing datasets, including OC20, and OC22. Results show that TDNs achieve competitive performance with dramatic speedup in computations. Our code is publicly available as part of the AIRS library (https://github.com/divelab/AIRS/tree/main/OpenMol/TDN{https://github.com/divelab/AIRS/}).

  • 9 authors
·
Jul 1, 2025

A Principled Framework for Multi-View Contrastive Learning

Contrastive Learning (CL), a leading paradigm in Self-Supervised Learning (SSL), typically relies on pairs of data views generated through augmentation. While multiple augmentations per instance (more than two) improve generalization in supervised learning, current CL methods handle additional views suboptimally by simply aggregating different pairwise objectives. This approach suffers from four critical limitations: (L1) it utilizes multiple optimization terms per data point resulting to conflicting objectives, (L2) it fails to model all interactions across views and data points, (L3) it inherits fundamental limitations (e.g. alignment-uniformity coupling) from pairwise CL losses, and (L4) it prevents fully realizing the benefits of increased view multiplicity observed in supervised settings. We address these limitations through two novel loss functions: MV-InfoNCE, which extends InfoNCE to incorporate all possible view interactions simultaneously in one term per data point, and MV-DHEL, which decouples alignment from uniformity across views while scaling interaction complexity with view multiplicity. Both approaches are theoretically grounded - we prove they asymptotically optimize for alignment of all views and uniformity, providing principled extensions to multi-view contrastive learning. Our empirical results on ImageNet1K and three other datasets demonstrate that our methods consistently outperform existing multi-view approaches and effectively scale with increasing view multiplicity. We also apply our objectives to multimodal data and show that, in contrast to other contrastive objectives, they can scale beyond just two modalities. Most significantly, ablation studies reveal that MV-DHEL with five or more views effectively mitigates dimensionality collapse by fully utilizing the embedding space, thereby delivering multi-view benefits observed in supervised learning.

  • 6 authors
·
Jul 9, 2025

Decolonial AI: Decolonial Theory as Sociotechnical Foresight in Artificial Intelligence

This paper explores the important role of critical science, and in particular of post-colonial and decolonial theories, in understanding and shaping the ongoing advances in artificial intelligence. Artificial Intelligence (AI) is viewed as amongst the technological advances that will reshape modern societies and their relations. Whilst the design and deployment of systems that continually adapt holds the promise of far-reaching positive change, they simultaneously pose significant risks, especially to already vulnerable peoples. Values and power are central to this discussion. Decolonial theories use historical hindsight to explain patterns of power that shape our intellectual, political, economic, and social world. By embedding a decolonial critical approach within its technical practice, AI communities can develop foresight and tactics that can better align research and technology development with established ethical principles, centring vulnerable peoples who continue to bear the brunt of negative impacts of innovation and scientific progress. We highlight problematic applications that are instances of coloniality, and using a decolonial lens, submit three tactics that can form a decolonial field of artificial intelligence: creating a critical technical practice of AI, seeking reverse tutelage and reverse pedagogies, and the renewal of affective and political communities. The years ahead will usher in a wave of new scientific breakthroughs and technologies driven by AI research, making it incumbent upon AI communities to strengthen the social contract through ethical foresight and the multiplicity of intellectual perspectives available to us; ultimately supporting future technologies that enable greater well-being, with the goal of beneficence and justice for all.

  • 3 authors
·
Jul 8, 2020

SegEarth-R2: Towards Comprehensive Language-guided Segmentation for Remote Sensing Images

Effectively grounding complex language to pixels in remote sensing (RS) images is a critical challenge for applications like disaster response and environmental monitoring. Current models can parse simple, single-target commands but fail when presented with complex geospatial scenarios, e.g., segmenting objects at various granularities, executing multi-target instructions, and interpreting implicit user intent. To drive progress against these failures, we present LaSeRS, the first large-scale dataset built for comprehensive training and evaluation across four critical dimensions of language-guided segmentation: hierarchical granularity, target multiplicity, reasoning requirements, and linguistic variability. By capturing these dimensions, LaSeRS moves beyond simple commands, providing a benchmark for complex geospatial reasoning. This addresses a critical gap: existing datasets oversimplify, leading to sensitivity-prone real-world models. We also propose SegEarth-R2, an MLLM architecture designed for comprehensive language-guided segmentation in RS, which directly confronts these challenges. The model's effectiveness stems from two key improvements: (1) a spatial attention supervision mechanism specifically handles the localization of small objects and their components, and (2) a flexible and efficient segmentation query mechanism that handles both single-target and multi-target scenarios. Experimental results demonstrate that our SegEarth-R2 achieves outstanding performance on LaSeRS and other benchmarks, establishing a powerful baseline for the next generation of geospatial segmentation. All data and code will be released at https://github.com/earth-insights/SegEarth-R2.

  • 9 authors
·
Dec 22, 2025

Filtering with Self-Attention and Storing with MLP: One-Layer Transformers Can Provably Acquire and Extract Knowledge

Modern large language models excel in knowledge-intensive tasks, yet how transformers acquire (store) knowledge during pre-training and extract (retrieve) it during post-fine-tuning inference remains theoretically opaque. While prior theoretical work has begun to investigate these questions through the analysis of training dynamics, such studies are limited to single-layer, attention-only architectures. However, most existing studies suggest that MLPs are the most contributing components for storing knowledge in transformer-based language models. Meanwhile, our empirical investigations reveal that such simplified models, when trained using standard next-token prediction objectives, may be incapable of acquiring or extracting factual knowledge. To overcome this limitation, we introduce a tractable one-layer transformer framework that crucially incorporates both self-attention and MLP modules. By tracking its gradient dynamics, we establish convergence and generalization guarantees that illuminate the ability of knowledge acquisition and extraction. We prove that 1) Transformers can achieve near-optimal training loss during pre-training, signifying effective knowledge acquisition; 2) With a large fine-tuning dataset and specific data multiplicity conditions met, transformers can achieve low generalization error when tested on factual knowledge learned during pre-training but not reinforced during the fine-tuning, indicating successful knowledge extraction; 3) When the conditions are not satisfied, transformers exhibit high generalization loss, resulting in hallucinations. Our analysis includes both full fine-tuning and low-rank fine-tuning. Furthermore, our analysis offers theoretical insights into several pertinent empirical phenomena, such as the role of learning rate schedules. Experiments on synthetic and real-world PopQA datasets with GPT-2 and Llama-3.2-1B validate our results.

  • 2 authors
·
Jul 28, 2025

PANGAEA: A Global and Inclusive Benchmark for Geospatial Foundation Models

Geospatial Foundation Models (GFMs) have emerged as powerful tools for extracting representations from Earth observation data, but their evaluation remains inconsistent and narrow. Existing works often evaluate on suboptimal downstream datasets and tasks, that are often too easy or too narrow, limiting the usefulness of the evaluations to assess the real-world applicability of GFMs. Additionally, there is a distinct lack of diversity in current evaluation protocols, which fail to account for the multiplicity of image resolutions, sensor types, and temporalities, which further complicates the assessment of GFM performance. In particular, most existing benchmarks are geographically biased towards North America and Europe, questioning the global applicability of GFMs. To overcome these challenges, we introduce PANGAEA, a standardized evaluation protocol that covers a diverse set of datasets, tasks, resolutions, sensor modalities, and temporalities. It establishes a robust and widely applicable benchmark for GFMs. We evaluate the most popular GFMs openly available on this benchmark and analyze their performance across several domains. In particular, we compare these models to supervised baselines (e.g. UNet and vanilla ViT), and assess their effectiveness when faced with limited labeled data. Our findings highlight the limitations of GFMs, under different scenarios, showing that they do not consistently outperform supervised models. PANGAEA is designed to be highly extensible, allowing for the seamless inclusion of new datasets, models, and tasks in future research. By releasing the evaluation code and benchmark, we aim to enable other researchers to replicate our experiments and build upon our work, fostering a more principled evaluation protocol for large pre-trained geospatial models. The code is available at https://github.com/VMarsocci/pangaea-bench.

  • 15 authors
·
Dec 5, 2024

How to Handle Different Types of Out-of-Distribution Scenarios in Computational Argumentation? A Comprehensive and Fine-Grained Field Study

The advent of pre-trained Language Models (LMs) has markedly advanced natural language processing, but their efficacy in out-of-distribution (OOD) scenarios remains a significant challenge. Computational argumentation (CA), modeling human argumentation processes, is a field notably impacted by these challenges because complex annotation schemes and high annotation costs naturally lead to resources barely covering the multiplicity of available text sources and topics. Due to this data scarcity, generalization to data from uncovered covariant distributions is a common challenge for CA tasks like stance detection or argument classification. This work systematically assesses LMs' capabilities for such OOD scenarios. While previous work targets specific OOD types like topic shifts or OOD uniformly, we address three prevalent OOD scenarios in CA: topic shift, domain shift, and language shift. Our findings challenge the previously asserted general superiority of in-context learning (ICL) for OOD. We find that the efficacy of such learning paradigms varies with the type of OOD. Specifically, while ICL excels for domain shifts, prompt-based fine-tuning surpasses for topic shifts. To sum up, we navigate the heterogeneity of OOD scenarios in CA and empirically underscore the potential of base-sized LMs in overcoming these challenges.

  • 3 authors
·
Sep 15, 2023

weighted CapsuleNet networks for Persian multi-domain sentiment analysis

Sentiment classification is a fundamental task in natural language processing, assigning one of the three classes, positive, negative, or neutral, to free texts. However, sentiment classification models are highly domain dependent; the classifier may perform classification with reasonable accuracy in one domain but not in another due to the Semantic multiplicity of words getting poor accuracy. This article presents a new Persian/Arabic multi-domain sentiment analysis method using the cumulative weighted capsule networks approach. Weighted capsule ensemble consists of training separate capsule networks for each domain and a weighting measure called domain belonging degree (DBD). This criterion consists of TF and IDF, which calculates the dependency of each document for each domain separately; this value is multiplied by the possible output that each capsule creates. In the end, the sum of these multiplications is the title of the final output, and is used to determine the polarity. And the most dependent domain is considered the final output for each domain. The proposed method was evaluated using the Digikala dataset and obtained acceptable accuracy compared to the existing approaches. It achieved an accuracy of 0.89 on detecting the domain of belonging and 0.99 on detecting the polarity. Also, for the problem of dealing with unbalanced classes, a cost-sensitive function was used. This function was able to achieve 0.0162 improvements in accuracy for sentiment classification. This approach on Amazon Arabic data can achieve 0.9695 accuracies in domain classification.

  • 4 authors
·
Jun 12, 2023

Binary and Multitask Classification Model for Dutch Anaphora Resolution: Die/Dat Prediction

The correct use of Dutch pronouns 'die' and 'dat' is a stumbling block for both native and non-native speakers of Dutch due to the multiplicity of syntactic functions and the dependency on the antecedent's gender and number. Drawing on previous research conducted on neural context-dependent dt-mistake correction models (Heyman et al. 2018), this study constructs the first neural network model for Dutch demonstrative and relative pronoun resolution that specifically focuses on the correction and part-of-speech prediction of these two pronouns. Two separate datasets are built with sentences obtained from, respectively, the Dutch Europarl corpus (Koehn 2015) - which contains the proceedings of the European Parliament from 1996 to the present - and the SoNaR corpus (Oostdijk et al. 2013) - which contains Dutch texts from a variety of domains such as newspapers, blogs and legal texts. Firstly, a binary classification model solely predicts the correct 'die' or 'dat'. The classifier with a bidirectional long short-term memory architecture achieves 84.56% accuracy. Secondly, a multitask classification model simultaneously predicts the correct 'die' or 'dat' and its part-of-speech tag. The model containing a combination of a sentence and context encoder with both a bidirectional long short-term memory architecture results in 88.63% accuracy for die/dat prediction and 87.73% accuracy for part-of-speech prediction. More evenly-balanced data, larger word embeddings, an extra bidirectional long short-term memory layer and integrated part-of-speech knowledge positively affects die/dat prediction performance, while a context encoder architecture raises part-of-speech prediction performance. This study shows promising results and can serve as a starting point for future research on machine learning models for Dutch anaphora resolution.

  • 3 authors
·
Jan 9, 2020

Concept-Aware Batch Sampling Improves Language-Image Pretraining

What data should a vision-language model be trained on? To answer this question, many data curation efforts center on the quality of a dataset. However, most of these existing methods are (i) offline, i.e. they produce a static dataset from a set of predetermined filtering criteria, and (ii) concept-agnostic, i.e. they use model-based filters which induce additional data biases. In this work, we go beyond such offline, concept-agnostic methods and advocate for more flexible, task-adaptive online concept-based curation. Our first contribution is DataConcept, a collection of 128M web-crawled image-text pairs annotated with fine-grained details about their concept composition. Building on DataConcept, we introduce Concept-Aware Batch Sampling (CABS), a simple yet effective batch sampling framework that flexibly constructs batches on-the-fly based on specific target distributions. We propose two variants: (i) Diversity Maximization (CABS-DM) to curate batches with a broad coverage of available concepts, and (ii) Frequency Maximization (CABS-FM) to curate batches with high object multiplicity. Through extensive evaluations across 28 benchmarks, we demonstrate that our CABS method significantly benefits CLIP/SigLIP model classes and yields highly performant models. Overall, CABS represents a strong open-source alternative to proprietary online data curation algorithms, enabling practitioners to define custom concept distributions that optimize for specific downstream tasks.

bethgelab Bethgelab
·
Nov 25, 2025 2