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Jan 22

Balancing Computational Efficiency and Forecast Error in Machine Learning-based Time-Series Forecasting: Insights from Live Experiments on Meteorological Nowcasting

Machine learning for time-series forecasting remains a key area of research. Despite successful application of many machine learning techniques, relating computational efficiency to forecast error remains an under-explored domain. This paper addresses this topic through a series of real-time experiments to quantify the relationship between computational cost and forecast error using meteorological nowcasting as an example use-case. We employ a variety of popular regression techniques (XGBoost, FC-MLP, Transformer, and LSTM) for multi-horizon, short-term forecasting of three variables (temperature, wind speed, and cloud cover) for multiple locations. During a 5-day live experiment, 4000 data sources were streamed for training and inferencing 144 models per hour. These models were parameterized to explore forecast error for two computational cost minimization methods: a novel auto-adaptive data reduction technique (Variance Horizon) and a performance-based concept drift-detection mechanism. Forecast error of all model variations were benchmarked in real-time against a state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction model. Performance was assessed using classical and novel evaluation metrics. Results indicate that using the Variance Horizon reduced computational usage by more than 50\%, while increasing between 0-15\% in error. Meanwhile, performance-based retraining reduced computational usage by up to 90\% while also improving forecast error by up to 10\%. Finally, the combination of both the Variance Horizon and performance-based retraining outperformed other model configurations by up to 99.7\% when considering error normalized to computational usage.

  • 5 authors
·
Sep 26, 2023

Online Matching: A Real-time Bandit System for Large-scale Recommendations

The last decade has witnessed many successes of deep learning-based models for industry-scale recommender systems. These models are typically trained offline in a batch manner. While being effective in capturing users' past interactions with recommendation platforms, batch learning suffers from long model-update latency and is vulnerable to system biases, making it hard to adapt to distribution shift and explore new items or user interests. Although online learning-based approaches (e.g., multi-armed bandits) have demonstrated promising theoretical results in tackling these challenges, their practical real-time implementation in large-scale recommender systems remains limited. First, the scalability of online approaches in servicing a massive online traffic while ensuring timely updates of bandit parameters poses a significant challenge. Additionally, exploring uncertainty in recommender systems can easily result in unfavorable user experience, highlighting the need for devising intricate strategies that effectively balance the trade-off between exploitation and exploration. In this paper, we introduce Online Matching: a scalable closed-loop bandit system learning from users' direct feedback on items in real time. We present a hybrid "offline + online" approach for constructing this system, accompanied by a comprehensive exposition of the end-to-end system architecture. We propose Diag-LinUCB -- a novel extension of the LinUCB algorithm -- to enable distributed updates of bandits parameter in a scalable and timely manner. We conduct live experiments in YouTube and show that Online Matching is able to enhance the capabilities of fresh content discovery and item exploration in the present platform.

  • 9 authors
·
Jul 29, 2023

Two-Stage Constrained Actor-Critic for Short Video Recommendation

The wide popularity of short videos on social media poses new opportunities and challenges to optimize recommender systems on the video-sharing platforms. Users sequentially interact with the system and provide complex and multi-faceted responses, including watch time and various types of interactions with multiple videos. One the one hand, the platforms aims at optimizing the users' cumulative watch time (main goal) in long term, which can be effectively optimized by Reinforcement Learning. On the other hand, the platforms also needs to satisfy the constraint of accommodating the responses of multiple user interactions (auxiliary goals) such like, follow, share etc. In this paper, we formulate the problem of short video recommendation as a Constrained Markov Decision Process (CMDP). We find that traditional constrained reinforcement learning algorithms can not work well in this setting. We propose a novel two-stage constrained actor-critic method: At stage one, we learn individual policies to optimize each auxiliary signal. At stage two, we learn a policy to (i) optimize the main signal and (ii) stay close to policies learned at the first stage, which effectively guarantees the performance of this main policy on the auxiliaries. Through extensive offline evaluations, we demonstrate effectiveness of our method over alternatives in both optimizing the main goal as well as balancing the others. We further show the advantage of our method in live experiments of short video recommendations, where it significantly outperforms other baselines in terms of both watch time and interactions. Our approach has been fully launched in the production system to optimize user experiences on the platform.

  • 12 authors
·
Feb 3, 2023

Self-supervised Learning for Large-scale Item Recommendations

Large scale recommender models find most relevant items from huge catalogs, and they play a critical role in modern search and recommendation systems. To model the input space with large-vocab categorical features, a typical recommender model learns a joint embedding space through neural networks for both queries and items from user feedback data. However, with millions to billions of items in the corpus, users tend to provide feedback for a very small set of them, causing a power-law distribution. This makes the feedback data for long-tail items extremely sparse. Inspired by the recent success in self-supervised representation learning research in both computer vision and natural language understanding, we propose a multi-task self-supervised learning (SSL) framework for large-scale item recommendations. The framework is designed to tackle the label sparsity problem by learning better latent relationship of item features. Specifically, SSL improves item representation learning as well as serving as additional regularization to improve generalization. Furthermore, we propose a novel data augmentation method that utilizes feature correlations within the proposed framework. We evaluate our framework using two real-world datasets with 500M and 1B training examples respectively. Our results demonstrate the effectiveness of SSL regularization and show its superior performance over the state-of-the-art regularization techniques. We also have already launched the proposed techniques to a web-scale commercial app-to-app recommendation system, with significant improvements top-tier business metrics demonstrated in A/B experiments on live traffic. Our online results also verify our hypothesis that our framework indeed improves model performance even more on slices that lack supervision.

  • 11 authors
·
Jul 25, 2020

LiveStar: Live Streaming Assistant for Real-World Online Video Understanding

Despite significant progress in Video Large Language Models (Video-LLMs) for offline video understanding, existing online Video-LLMs typically struggle to simultaneously process continuous frame-by-frame inputs and determine optimal response timing, often compromising real-time responsiveness and narrative coherence. To address these limitations, we introduce LiveStar, a pioneering live streaming assistant that achieves always-on proactive responses through adaptive streaming decoding. Specifically, LiveStar incorporates: (1) a training strategy enabling incremental video-language alignment for variable-length video streams, preserving temporal consistency across dynamically evolving frame sequences; (2) a response-silence decoding framework that determines optimal proactive response timing via a single forward pass verification; (3) memory-aware acceleration via peak-end memory compression for online inference on 10+ minute videos, combined with streaming key-value cache to achieve 1.53x faster inference. We also construct an OmniStar dataset, a comprehensive dataset for training and benchmarking that encompasses 15 diverse real-world scenarios and 5 evaluation tasks for online video understanding. Extensive experiments across three benchmarks demonstrate LiveStar's state-of-the-art performance, achieving an average 19.5% improvement in semantic correctness with 18.1% reduced timing difference compared to existing online Video-LLMs, while improving FPS by 12.0% across all five OmniStar tasks. Our model and dataset can be accessed at https://github.com/yzy-bupt/LiveStar.

  • 10 authors
·
Nov 7, 2025

Motile Bacteria-laden Droplets Exhibit Reduced Adhesion and Anomalous Wetting Behavior

Hypothesis: Bacterial contamination of surfaces poses a major threat to public health. Designing effective antibacterial or self-cleaning surfaces requires understanding how bacteria-laden droplets interact with solid substrates and how readily they can be removed. We hypothesize that bacterial motility critically influences the early-stage surface interaction (i.e., surface adhesion) of bacteria-laden droplets, which cannot be captured by conventional contact angle goniometry. Experiments: Sessile droplets containing live and dead Escherichia coli (E. coli) were studied to probe their wetting and interfacial behavior. Contact angle goniometry was used to probe dynamic wetting, while a cantilever-deflection-based method was used to quantify adhesion. Internal flow dynamics were visualized using micro-particle image velocimetry (PIV) and analyzed statistically. Complementary sliding experiments on moderately wettable substrates were performed to assess contact line mobility under tilt. Findings: Despite lower surface tension, droplets containing live bacteria exhibited lower surface adhesion forces than their dead counterparts, with adhesion further decreasing at higher bacterial concentrations. Micro-PIV revealed that flagellated live E. coli actively resist evaporation-driven capillary flow via upstream migration, while at higher concentrations, collective dynamics emerge, producing spatially coherent bacterial motion despite temporal variability. These coordinated flows disrupt passive transport and promote depinning of the contact line, thereby reducing adhesion. Sliding experiments confirmed enhanced contact line mobility and frequent stick-slip motion in live droplets, even with lower receding contact angles and higher hysteresis. These findings provide mechanistic insight into droplet retention, informing the design of self-cleaning/antifouling surfaces.

  • 4 authors
·
Oct 28, 2025

ImmerseGen: Agent-Guided Immersive World Generation with Alpha-Textured Proxies

Automatic creation of 3D scenes for immersive VR presence has been a significant research focus for decades. However, existing methods often rely on either high-poly mesh modeling with post-hoc simplification or massive 3D Gaussians, resulting in a complex pipeline or limited visual realism. In this paper, we demonstrate that such exhaustive modeling is unnecessary for achieving compelling immersive experience. We introduce ImmerseGen, a novel agent-guided framework for compact and photorealistic world modeling. ImmerseGen represents scenes as hierarchical compositions of lightweight geometric proxies, i.e., simplified terrain and billboard meshes, and generates photorealistic appearance by synthesizing RGBA textures onto these proxies. Specifically, we propose terrain-conditioned texturing for user-centric base world synthesis, and RGBA asset texturing for midground and foreground scenery. This reformulation offers several advantages: (i) it simplifies modeling by enabling agents to guide generative models in producing coherent textures that integrate seamlessly with the scene; (ii) it bypasses complex geometry creation and decimation by directly synthesizing photorealistic textures on proxies, preserving visual quality without degradation; (iii) it enables compact representations suitable for real-time rendering on mobile VR headsets. To automate scene creation from text prompts, we introduce VLM-based modeling agents enhanced with semantic grid-based analysis for improved spatial reasoning and accurate asset placement. ImmerseGen further enriches scenes with dynamic effects and ambient audio to support multisensory immersion. Experiments on scene generation and live VR showcases demonstrate that ImmerseGen achieves superior photorealism, spatial coherence and rendering efficiency compared to prior methods. Project webpage: https://immersegen.github.io.

  • 9 authors
·
Jun 17, 2025 2

WebEvolver: Enhancing Web Agent Self-Improvement with Coevolving World Model

Agent self-improvement, where the backbone Large Language Model (LLM) of the agent are trained on trajectories sampled autonomously based on their own policies, has emerged as a promising approach for enhancing performance. Recent advancements, particularly in web environments, face a critical limitation: their performance will reach a stagnation point during autonomous learning cycles, hindering further improvement. We argue that this stems from limited exploration of the web environment and insufficient exploitation of pre-trained web knowledge in LLMs. To improve the performance of self-improvement, we propose a novel framework that introduces a co-evolving World Model LLM. This world model predicts the next observation based on the current observation and action within the web environment. Leveraging LLMs' pretrained knowledge of abundant web content, the World Model serves dual roles: (1) as a virtual web server generating self-instructed training data to continuously refine the agent's policy, and (2) as an imagination engine during inference, enabling look-ahead simulation to guide action selection for the agent LLM. Experiments in real-world web environments (Mind2Web-Live, WebVoyager, and GAIA-web) show a 10% performance gain over existing self-evolving agents, demonstrating the efficacy and generalizability of our approach, without using any distillation from more powerful close-sourced models. Our work establishes the necessity of integrating world models into autonomous agent frameworks to unlock sustained adaptability.

  • 7 authors
·
Apr 22, 2025

D3: Diversity, Difficulty, and Dependability-Aware Data Selection for Sample-Efficient LLM Instruction Tuning

Recent advancements in instruction tuning for large language models (LLMs) suggest that a small, high-quality dataset can significantly equip LLMs with instruction-following capabilities, outperforming large datasets often burdened by quality and redundancy issues. However, the challenge lies in automatically identifying valuable subsets from large datasets to boost both the effectiveness and efficiency of instruction tuning. In this paper, we first establish data selection criteria based on three distinct aspects of data value: diversity, difficulty, and dependability, and then propose the D3 method comprising two key steps of scoring and selection. Specifically, in the scoring step, we define the diversity function to measure sample distinctiveness and introduce the uncertainty-based prediction difficulty to evaluate sample difficulty by mitigating the interference of context-oriented generation diversity. Additionally, we integrate an external LLM for dependability assessment. In the selection step, we formulate the D3 weighted coreset objective, which jointly optimizes three aspects of data value to solve for the most valuable subset. The two steps of D3 can iterate multiple rounds, incorporating feedback to refine the selection focus adaptively. Experiments on both public datasets and the real-world Taobao Live application demonstrate the effectiveness of D3 in endowing LLMs with competitive or even superior instruction-following capabilities using less than 10\% of the entire dataset.

  • 8 authors
·
Mar 14, 2025

LiveXiv -- A Multi-Modal Live Benchmark Based on Arxiv Papers Content

The large-scale training of multi-modal models on data scraped from the web has shown outstanding utility in infusing these models with the required world knowledge to perform effectively on multiple downstream tasks. However, one downside of scraping data from the web can be the potential sacrifice of the benchmarks on which the abilities of these models are often evaluated. To safeguard against test data contamination and to truly test the abilities of these foundation models we propose LiveXiv: A scalable evolving live benchmark based on scientific ArXiv papers. LiveXiv accesses domain-specific manuscripts at any given timestamp and proposes to automatically generate visual question-answer pairs (VQA). This is done without any human-in-the-loop, using the multi-modal content in the manuscripts, like graphs, charts, and tables. Moreover, we introduce an efficient evaluation approach that estimates the performance of all models on the evolving benchmark using evaluations of only a subset of models. This significantly reduces the overall evaluation cost. We benchmark multiple open and proprietary Large Multi-modal Models (LMMs) on the first version of our benchmark, showing its challenging nature and exposing the models true abilities, avoiding contamination. Lastly, in our commitment to high quality, we have collected and evaluated a manually verified subset. By comparing its overall results to our automatic annotations, we have found that the performance variance is indeed minimal (<2.5%). Our dataset is available online on HuggingFace, and our code will be available here.

  • 11 authors
·
Oct 14, 2024 2

LiveBench: A Challenging, Contamination-Free LLM Benchmark

Test set contamination, wherein test data from a benchmark ends up in a newer model's training set, is a well-documented obstacle for fair LLM evaluation and can quickly render benchmarks obsolete. To mitigate this, many recent benchmarks crowdsource new prompts and evaluations from human or LLM judges; however, these can introduce significant biases, and break down when scoring hard questions. In this work, we introduce a new benchmark for LLMs designed to be immune to both test set contamination and the pitfalls of LLM judging and human crowdsourcing. We release LiveBench, the first benchmark that (1) contains frequently-updated questions from recent information sources, (2) scores answers automatically according to objective ground-truth values, and (3) contains a wide variety of challenging tasks, spanning math, coding, reasoning, language, instruction following, and data analysis. To achieve this, LiveBench contains questions that are based on recently-released math competitions, arXiv papers, news articles, and datasets, and it contains harder, contamination-free versions of tasks from previous benchmarks such as Big-Bench Hard, AMPS, and IFEval. We evaluate many prominent closed-source models, as well as dozens of open-source models ranging from 0.5B to 110B in size. LiveBench is difficult, with top models achieving below 65% accuracy. We release all questions, code, and model answers. Questions will be added and updated on a monthly basis, and we will release new tasks and harder versions of tasks over time so that LiveBench can distinguish between the capabilities of LLMs as they improve in the future. We welcome community engagement and collaboration for expanding the benchmark tasks and models.

  • 15 authors
·
Jun 27, 2024 3

LiveTradeBench: Seeking Real-World Alpha with Large Language Models

Large language models (LLMs) achieve strong performance across benchmarks--from knowledge quizzes and math reasoning to web-agent tasks--but these tests occur in static settings, lacking real dynamics and uncertainty. Consequently, they evaluate isolated reasoning or problem-solving rather than decision-making under uncertainty. To address this, we introduce LiveTradeBench, a live trading environment for evaluating LLM agents in realistic and evolving markets. LiveTradeBench follows three design principles: (i) Live data streaming of market prices and news, eliminating dependence on offline backtesting and preventing information leakage while capturing real-time uncertainty; (ii) a portfolio-management abstraction that extends control from single-asset actions to multi-asset allocation, integrating risk management and cross-asset reasoning; and (iii) multi-market evaluation across structurally distinct environments--U.S. stocks and Polymarket prediction markets--differing in volatility, liquidity, and information flow. At each step, an agent observes prices, news, and its portfolio, then outputs percentage allocations that balance risk and return. Using LiveTradeBench, we run 50-day live evaluations of 21 LLMs across families. Results show that (1) high LMArena scores do not imply superior trading outcomes; (2) models display distinct portfolio styles reflecting risk appetite and reasoning dynamics; and (3) some LLMs effectively leverage live signals to adapt decisions. These findings expose a gap between static evaluation and real-world competence, motivating benchmarks that test sequential decision making and consistency under live uncertainty.

  • 3 authors
·
Nov 5, 2025 2

LiveVLM: Efficient Online Video Understanding via Streaming-Oriented KV Cache and Retrieval

Recent developments in Video Large Language Models (Video LLMs) have enabled models to process long video sequences and demonstrate remarkable performance. Nonetheless, studies predominantly focus on offline video question answering, neglecting memory usage and response speed that are essential in various real-world applications, such as Deepseek services, autonomous driving, and robotics. To mitigate these challenges, we propose LiveVLM, a training-free framework specifically designed for streaming, online video understanding and real-time interaction. Unlike existing works that process videos only after one question is posed, LiveVLM constructs an innovative streaming-oriented KV cache to process video streams in real-time, retain long-term video details and eliminate redundant KVs, ensuring prompt responses to user queries. For continuous video streams, LiveVLM generates and compresses video key-value tensors (video KVs) to reserve visual information while improving memory efficiency. Furthermore, when a new question is proposed, LiveVLM incorporates an online question-answering process that efficiently fetches both short-term and long-term visual information, while minimizing interference from redundant context. Extensive experiments demonstrate that LiveVLM enables the foundation LLaVA-OneVision model to process 44times number of frames on the same device, and achieves up to 5times speedup in response speed compared with SoTA online methods at an input of 256 frames, while maintaining the same or better model performance.

  • 6 authors
·
May 21, 2025

AutoReproduce: Automatic AI Experiment Reproduction with Paper Lineage

Efficient experiment reproduction is critical to accelerating progress in artificial intelligence. However, the inherent complexity of method design and training procedures presents substantial challenges for automation. Notably, reproducing experiments often requires implicit domain-specific knowledge not explicitly documented in the original papers. To address this, we introduce the paper lineage algorithm, which identifies and extracts implicit knowledge from the relevant references cited by the target paper. Building on this idea, we propose AutoReproduce, a multi-agent framework capable of automatically reproducing experiments described in research papers in an end-to-end manner. AutoReproduce enhances code executability by generating unit tests alongside the reproduction process. To evaluate the reproduction capability, we construct ReproduceBench, a benchmark annotated with verified implementations, and introduce novel evaluation metrics to assess both the reproduction and execution fidelity. Experimental results demonstrate that AutoReproduce outperforms the existing strong agent baselines on all five evaluation metrics by a peak margin of over 70%. In particular, compared to the official implementations, AutoReproduce achieves an average performance gap of 22.1% on 89.74% of the executable experiment runs. The code will be available at https://github.com/AI9Stars/AutoReproduce.

  • 9 authors
·
May 26, 2025

Live-SWE-agent: Can Software Engineering Agents Self-Evolve on the Fly?

Large Language Models (LLMs) are reshaping almost all industries, including software engineering. In recent years, a number of LLM agents have been proposed to solve real-world software problems. Such software agents are typically equipped with a suite of coding tools and can autonomously decide the next actions to form complete trajectories to solve end-to-end software tasks. While promising, they typically require dedicated design and may still be suboptimal, since it can be extremely challenging and costly to exhaust the entire agent scaffold design space. Recognizing that software agents are inherently software themselves that can be further refined/modified, researchers have proposed a number of self-improving software agents recently, including the Darwin-Gödel Machine (DGM). Meanwhile, such self-improving agents require costly offline training on specific benchmarks and may not generalize well across different LLMs or benchmarks. In this paper, we propose Live-SWE-agent, the first live software agent that can autonomously and continuously evolve itself on-the-fly during runtime when solving real-world software problems. More specifically, Live-SWE-agent starts with the most basic agent scaffold with only access to bash tools (e.g., mini-SWE-agent), and autonomously evolves its own scaffold implementation while solving real-world software problems. Our evaluation on the widely studied SWE-bench Verified benchmark shows that Live-SWE-agent can achieve an impressive solve rate of 75.4% without test-time scaling, outperforming all existing open-source software agents and approaching the performance of the best proprietary solution. Moreover, Live-SWE-agent outperforms state-of-the-art manually crafted software agents on the recent SWE-Bench Pro benchmark, achieving the best-known solve rate of 45.8%.

  • 5 authors
·
Nov 17, 2025 2

Can Open-Source LLMs Compete with Commercial Models? Exploring the Few-Shot Performance of Current GPT Models in Biomedical Tasks

Commercial large language models (LLMs), like OpenAI's GPT-4 powering ChatGPT and Anthropic's Claude 3 Opus, have dominated natural language processing (NLP) benchmarks across different domains. New competing Open-Source alternatives like Mixtral 8x7B or Llama 3 have emerged and seem to be closing the gap while often offering higher throughput and being less costly to use. Open-Source LLMs can also be self-hosted, which makes them interesting for enterprise and clinical use cases where sensitive data should not be processed by third parties. We participated in the 12th BioASQ challenge, which is a retrieval augmented generation (RAG) setting, and explored the performance of current GPT models Claude 3 Opus, GPT-3.5-turbo and Mixtral 8x7b with in-context learning (zero-shot, few-shot) and QLoRa fine-tuning. We also explored how additional relevant knowledge from Wikipedia added to the context-window of the LLM might improve their performance. Mixtral 8x7b was competitive in the 10-shot setting, both with and without fine-tuning, but failed to produce usable results in the zero-shot setting. QLoRa fine-tuning and Wikipedia context did not lead to measurable performance gains. Our results indicate that the performance gap between commercial and open-source models in RAG setups exists mainly in the zero-shot setting and can be closed by simply collecting few-shot examples for domain-specific use cases. The code needed to rerun these experiments is available through GitHub.

  • 2 authors
·
Jul 18, 2024