Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 520726
Question: Will Chris Stewart be Trump’s Director of National Intelligence?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 68385.167644
Price History:
2025-02-11 11:00: 0.0010
2025-02-11 11:00: 0.9990
2025-02-11 12:00: 0.0010
2025-02-11 12:00: 0.9990
2025-02-11 13:00: 0.0010
2025-02-11 13:00: 0.9990
2025-02-11 14:00: 0.0010
2025-02-11 14:00: 0.9990
2025-02-11 15:00: 0.0010
2025-02-11 15:00: 0.9990
2025-02-11 16:00: 0.0010
2025-02-11 16:00: 0.9990
2025-02-11 17:00: 0.0010
2025-02-11 17:00: 0.9990
2025-02-11 18:00: 0.0010
2025-02-11 18:00: 0.9990
2025-02-11 19:00: 0.0010
2025-02-11 19:00: 0.9990
2025-02-11 20:00: 0.0010
2025-02-11 20:00: 0.9990
2025-02-11 21:00: 0.0010
2025-02-11 21:00: 0.9990
2025-02-11 22:00: 0.0010
2025-02-11 22:00: 0.9990
2025-02-11 23:00: 0.0010
2025-02-11 23:00: 0.9990
2025-02-12 00:00: 0.0010
2025-02-12 00:00: 0.9990
2025-02-12 01:00: 0.0010
2025-02-12 01:00: 0.9990
2025-02-12 02:00: 0.0010
2025-02-12 02:00: 0.9990
2025-02-12 03:00: 0.0010
2025-02-12 03:00: 0.9990
2025-02-12 04:00: 0.0010
2025-02-12 04:00: 0.9990
2025-02-12 05:00: 0.0015
2025-02-12 05:00: 0.9985
2025-02-12 06:00: 0.0015
2025-02-12 06:00: 0.9985
2025-02-12 07:00: 0.0015
2025-02-12 07:00: 0.9985
2025-02-12 08:00: 0.0015
2025-02-12 08:00: 0.9985
2025-02-12 09:00: 0.0015
2025-02-12 09:00: 0.9985
2025-02-12 10:00: 0.0015
2025-02-12 10:00: 0.9985
2025-02-12 11:00: 0.0010
2025-02-12 11:00: 0.9990
Trade Summary: No trades available

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 520726
Question: Will Chris Stewart be Trump’s Director of National Intelligence?
Volume: 68385.167644
Price History:
2025-01-28 17:00: 0.5000
2025-01-28 17:00: 0.5000
2025-01-28 18:00: 0.1650
2025-01-28 18:00: 0.8350
2025-01-28 19:00: 0.0705
2025-01-28 19:00: 0.9295
2025-01-28 20:00: 0.0990
2025-01-28 20:00: 0.9010
2025-01-28 21:00: 0.1100
2025-01-28 21:00: 0.8900
2025-01-28 22:00: 0.1100
2025-01-28 22:00: 0.8900
2025-01-28 23:00: 0.1100
2025-01-28 23:00: 0.8900
2025-01-29 00:00: 0.1100
2025-01-29 00:00: 0.8900
2025-01-29 01:00: 0.1095
2025-01-29 01:00: 0.8905
2025-01-29 02:00: 0.1095
2025-01-29 02:00: 0.8905
2025-01-29 03:00: 0.1100
2025-01-29 03:00: 0.8900
2025-01-29 04:00: 0.1100
2025-01-29 04:00: 0.8900
2025-01-29 05:00: 0.1115
2025-01-29 05:00: 0.8885
2025-01-29 06:00: 0.1090
2025-01-29 06:00: 0.8910
2025-01-29 07:00: 0.1090
2025-01-29 07:00: 0.8910
Trade Summary: No trades available
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 520726
Question: Will Chris Stewart be Trump’s Director of National Intelligence?
Volume: 68385.167644
Price History:
2025-01-29 20:00: 0.8810
2025-01-29 21:00: 0.1185
2025-01-29 21:00: 0.8815
2025-01-29 22:00: 0.1190
2025-01-29 22:00: 0.8810
2025-01-29 23:00: 0.1190
2025-01-29 23:00: 0.8810
2025-01-30 00:00: 0.1195
2025-01-30 00:00: 0.8805
2025-01-30 01:00: 0.1195
2025-01-30 01:00: 0.8805
2025-01-30 02:00: 0.1195
2025-01-30 02:00: 0.8805
2025-01-30 03:00: 0.1190
2025-01-30 03:00: 0.8810
2025-01-30 04:00: 0.1195
2025-01-30 04:00: 0.8805
2025-01-30 05:00: 0.1190
2025-01-30 05:00: 0.8810
2025-01-30 06:00: 0.1195
2025-01-30 06:00: 0.8805
2025-01-30 07:00: 0.1190
2025-01-30 07:00: 0.8810
2025-01-30 08:00: 0.1190
2025-01-30 08:00: 0.8810
2025-01-30 09:00: 0.1195
2025-01-30 09:00: 0.8805
2025-01-30 10:00: 0.1195
2025-01-30 10:00: 0.8805
2025-01-30 11:00: 0.1195
Trade Summary: No trades available
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 520726
Question: Will Chris Stewart be Trump’s Director of National Intelligence?
Volume: 68385.167644
Price History:
2025-01-31 00:00: 0.1325
2025-01-31 00:00: 0.8675
2025-01-31 01:00: 0.1315
2025-01-31 01:00: 0.8685
2025-01-31 02:00: 0.1390
2025-01-31 02:00: 0.8610
2025-01-31 03:00: 0.1420
2025-01-31 03:00: 0.8580
2025-01-31 04:00: 0.1450
2025-01-31 04:00: 0.8550
2025-01-31 05:00: 0.1445
2025-01-31 05:00: 0.8555
2025-01-31 06:00: 0.1485
2025-01-31 06:00: 0.8515
2025-01-31 07:00: 0.1495
2025-01-31 07:00: 0.8505
2025-01-31 08:00: 0.1495
2025-01-31 08:00: 0.8505
2025-01-31 09:00: 0.1495
2025-01-31 09:00: 0.8505
2025-01-31 10:00: 0.1495
2025-01-31 10:00: 0.8505
2025-01-31 11:00: 0.1495
2025-01-31 11:00: 0.8505
2025-01-31 12:00: 0.1495
2025-01-31 12:00: 0.8505
2025-01-31 13:00: 0.1495
2025-01-31 13:00: 0.8505
2025-01-31 14:00: 0.1495
2025-01-31 14:00: 0.8505
Trade Summary: No trades available
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 520726
Question: Will Chris Stewart be Trump’s Director of National Intelligence?
Volume: 68385.167644
Price History:
2025-02-01 03:00: 0.8430
2025-02-01 04:00: 0.1575
2025-02-01 04:00: 0.8425
2025-02-01 05:00: 0.1580
2025-02-01 05:00: 0.8420
2025-02-01 06:00: 0.1585
2025-02-01 06:00: 0.8415
2025-02-01 07:00: 0.1585
2025-02-01 07:00: 0.8415
2025-02-01 08:00: 0.1580
2025-02-01 08:00: 0.8420
2025-02-01 09:00: 0.1590
2025-02-01 09:00: 0.8410
2025-02-01 10:00: 0.1590
2025-02-01 10:00: 0.8410
2025-02-01 11:00: 0.1595
2025-02-01 11:00: 0.8405
2025-02-01 12:00: 0.1550
2025-02-01 12:00: 0.8450
2025-02-01 13:00: 0.1570
2025-02-01 13:00: 0.8430
2025-02-01 14:00: 0.1555
2025-02-01 14:00: 0.8445
2025-02-01 15:00: 0.1575
2025-02-01 15:00: 0.8425
2025-02-01 16:00: 0.1550
2025-02-01 16:00: 0.8450
2025-02-01 17:00: 0.1570
2025-02-01 17:00: 0.8430
2025-02-01 18:00: 0.1540
Trade Summary: No trades available
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 520726
Question: Will Chris Stewart be Trump’s Director of National Intelligence?
Volume: 68385.167644
Price History:
2025-02-02 07:00: 0.1550
2025-02-02 07:00: 0.8450
2025-02-02 08:00: 0.1565
2025-02-02 08:00: 0.8435
2025-02-02 09:00: 0.1575
2025-02-02 09:00: 0.8425
2025-02-02 10:00: 0.1550
2025-02-02 10:00: 0.8450
2025-02-02 11:00: 0.1550
2025-02-02 11:00: 0.8450
2025-02-02 12:00: 0.1560
2025-02-02 12:00: 0.8440
2025-02-02 13:00: 0.1550
2025-02-02 13:00: 0.8450
2025-02-02 14:00: 0.1575
2025-02-02 14:00: 0.8425
2025-02-02 15:00: 0.1545
2025-02-02 15:00: 0.8455
2025-02-02 16:00: 0.1500
2025-02-02 16:00: 0.8500
2025-02-02 17:00: 0.1500
2025-02-02 17:00: 0.8500
2025-02-02 18:00: 0.1440
2025-02-02 18:00: 0.8560
2025-02-02 19:00: 0.1445
2025-02-02 19:00: 0.8555
2025-02-02 20:00: 0.1440
2025-02-02 20:00: 0.8560
2025-02-02 21:00: 0.1435
2025-02-02 21:00: 0.8565
Trade Summary: No trades available
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 520726
Question: Will Chris Stewart be Trump’s Director of National Intelligence?
Volume: 68385.167644
Price History:
2025-02-03 10:00: 0.8555
2025-02-03 11:00: 0.1445
2025-02-03 11:00: 0.8555
2025-02-03 12:00: 0.1445
2025-02-03 12:00: 0.8555
2025-02-03 13:00: 0.1445
2025-02-03 13:00: 0.8555
2025-02-03 14:00: 0.1395
2025-02-03 14:00: 0.8605
2025-02-03 15:00: 0.1425
2025-02-03 15:00: 0.8575
2025-02-03 16:00: 0.1425
2025-02-03 16:00: 0.8575
2025-02-03 17:00: 0.0535
2025-02-03 17:00: 0.9465
2025-02-03 18:00: 0.0305
2025-02-03 18:00: 0.9695
2025-02-03 19:00: 0.0300
2025-02-03 19:00: 0.9700
2025-02-03 20:00: 0.0325
2025-02-03 20:00: 0.9675
2025-02-03 21:00: 0.0355
2025-02-03 21:00: 0.9645
2025-02-03 22:00: 0.0300
2025-02-03 22:00: 0.9700
2025-02-03 23:00: 0.0250
2025-02-03 23:00: 0.9750
2025-02-04 00:00: 0.0295
2025-02-04 00:00: 0.9705
2025-02-04 01:00: 0.0320
Trade Summary: No trades available
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 520726
Question: Will Chris Stewart be Trump’s Director of National Intelligence?
Volume: 68385.167644
Price History:
2025-02-04 14:00: 0.0085
2025-02-04 14:00: 0.9915
2025-02-04 15:00: 0.0085
2025-02-04 15:00: 0.9915
2025-02-04 16:00: 0.0075
2025-02-04 16:00: 0.9925
2025-02-04 17:00: 0.0085
2025-02-04 17:00: 0.9915
2025-02-04 18:00: 0.0065
2025-02-04 18:00: 0.9935
2025-02-04 19:00: 0.0075
2025-02-04 19:00: 0.9925
2025-02-04 20:00: 0.0070
2025-02-04 20:00: 0.9930
2025-02-04 21:00: 0.0085
2025-02-04 21:00: 0.9915
2025-02-04 22:00: 0.0080
2025-02-04 22:00: 0.9920
2025-02-04 23:00: 0.0075
2025-02-04 23:00: 0.9925
2025-02-05 00:00: 0.0070
2025-02-05 00:00: 0.9930
2025-02-05 01:00: 0.0075
2025-02-05 01:00: 0.9925
2025-02-05 02:00: 0.0070
2025-02-05 02:00: 0.9930
2025-02-05 03:00: 0.0075
2025-02-05 03:00: 0.9925
2025-02-05 04:00: 0.0075
2025-02-05 04:00: 0.9925
Trade Summary: No trades available
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 520726
Question: Will Chris Stewart be Trump’s Director of National Intelligence?
Volume: 68385.167644
Price History:
2025-02-05 17:00: 0.9955
2025-02-05 18:00: 0.0045
2025-02-05 18:00: 0.9955
2025-02-05 19:00: 0.0045
2025-02-05 19:00: 0.9955
2025-02-05 20:00: 0.0045
2025-02-05 20:00: 0.9955
2025-02-05 21:00: 0.0045
2025-02-05 21:00: 0.9955
2025-02-05 22:00: 0.0045
2025-02-05 22:00: 0.9955
2025-02-05 23:00: 0.0045
2025-02-05 23:00: 0.9955
2025-02-06 00:00: 0.0045
2025-02-06 00:00: 0.9955
2025-02-06 01:00: 0.0045
2025-02-06 01:00: 0.9955
2025-02-06 02:00: 0.0045
2025-02-06 02:00: 0.9955
2025-02-06 03:00: 0.0045
2025-02-06 03:00: 0.9955
2025-02-06 04:00: 0.0045
2025-02-06 04:00: 0.9955
2025-02-06 05:00: 0.0045
2025-02-06 05:00: 0.9955
2025-02-06 06:00: 0.0045
2025-02-06 06:00: 0.9955
2025-02-06 07:00: 0.0045
2025-02-06 07:00: 0.9955
2025-02-06 08:00: 0.0045
Trade Summary: No trades available
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 520726
Question: Will Chris Stewart be Trump’s Director of National Intelligence?
Volume: 68385.167644
Price History:
2025-02-06 21:00: 0.0045
2025-02-06 21:00: 0.9955
2025-02-06 22:00: 0.0045
2025-02-06 22:00: 0.9955
2025-02-06 23:00: 0.0045
2025-02-06 23:00: 0.9955
2025-02-07 00:00: 0.0045
2025-02-07 00:00: 0.9955
2025-02-07 01:00: 0.0045
2025-02-07 01:00: 0.9955
2025-02-07 02:00: 0.0045
2025-02-07 02:00: 0.9955
2025-02-07 03:00: 0.0045
2025-02-07 03:00: 0.9955
2025-02-07 04:00: 0.0045
2025-02-07 04:00: 0.9955
2025-02-07 05:00: 0.0045
2025-02-07 05:00: 0.9955
2025-02-07 06:00: 0.0045
2025-02-07 06:00: 0.9955
2025-02-07 07:00: 0.0045
2025-02-07 07:00: 0.9955
2025-02-07 08:00: 0.0045
2025-02-07 08:00: 0.9955
2025-02-07 09:00: 0.0045
2025-02-07 09:00: 0.9955
2025-02-07 10:00: 0.0045
2025-02-07 10:00: 0.9955
2025-02-07 11:00: 0.0045
2025-02-07 11:00: 0.9955
Trade Summary: No trades available
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 520726
Question: Will Chris Stewart be Trump’s Director of National Intelligence?
Volume: 68385.167644
Price History:
2025-02-08 00:00: 0.9955
2025-02-08 01:00: 0.0045
2025-02-08 01:00: 0.9955
2025-02-08 02:00: 0.0045
2025-02-08 02:00: 0.9955
2025-02-08 03:00: 0.0045
2025-02-08 03:00: 0.9955
2025-02-08 04:00: 0.0045
2025-02-08 04:00: 0.9955
2025-02-08 05:00: 0.0045
2025-02-08 05:00: 0.9955
2025-02-08 06:00: 0.0045
2025-02-08 06:00: 0.9955
2025-02-08 07:00: 0.0045
2025-02-08 07:00: 0.9955
2025-02-08 08:00: 0.0040
2025-02-08 08:00: 0.9960
2025-02-08 09:00: 0.0040
2025-02-08 09:00: 0.9960
2025-02-08 10:00: 0.0040
2025-02-08 10:00: 0.9960
2025-02-08 11:00: 0.0040
2025-02-08 11:00: 0.9960
2025-02-08 12:00: 0.0040
2025-02-08 12:00: 0.9960
2025-02-08 13:00: 0.0040
2025-02-08 13:00: 0.9960
2025-02-08 14:00: 0.0040
2025-02-08 14:00: 0.9960
2025-02-08 15:00: 0.0040
Trade Summary: No trades available
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 520726
Question: Will Chris Stewart be Trump’s Director of National Intelligence?
Volume: 68385.167644
Price History:
2025-02-09 04:00: 0.0040
2025-02-09 04:00: 0.9960
2025-02-09 05:00: 0.0040
2025-02-09 05:00: 0.9960
2025-02-09 06:00: 0.0040
2025-02-09 06:00: 0.9960
2025-02-09 07:00: 0.0040
2025-02-09 07:00: 0.9960
2025-02-09 08:00: 0.0040
2025-02-09 08:00: 0.9960
2025-02-09 09:00: 0.0040
2025-02-09 09:00: 0.9960
2025-02-09 10:00: 0.0040
2025-02-09 10:00: 0.9960
2025-02-09 11:00: 0.0040
2025-02-09 11:00: 0.9960
2025-02-09 12:00: 0.0040
2025-02-09 12:00: 0.9960
2025-02-09 13:00: 0.0040
2025-02-09 13:00: 0.9960
2025-02-09 14:00: 0.0040
2025-02-09 14:00: 0.9960
2025-02-09 15:00: 0.0040
2025-02-09 15:00: 0.9960
2025-02-09 16:00: 0.0040
2025-02-09 16:00: 0.9960
2025-02-09 17:00: 0.0040
2025-02-09 17:00: 0.9960
2025-02-09 18:00: 0.0040
2025-02-09 18:00: 0.9960
Trade Summary: No trades available
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 520726
Question: Will Chris Stewart be Trump’s Director of National Intelligence?
Volume: 68385.167644
Price History:
2025-02-10 07:00: 0.9960
2025-02-10 08:00: 0.0040
2025-02-10 08:00: 0.9960
2025-02-10 09:00: 0.0040
2025-02-10 09:00: 0.9960
2025-02-10 10:00: 0.0040
2025-02-10 10:00: 0.9960
2025-02-10 11:00: 0.0040
2025-02-10 11:00: 0.9960
2025-02-10 12:00: 0.0040
2025-02-10 12:00: 0.9960
2025-02-10 13:00: 0.0040
2025-02-10 13:00: 0.9960
2025-02-10 14:00: 0.0040
2025-02-10 14:00: 0.9960
2025-02-10 15:00: 0.0040
2025-02-10 15:00: 0.9960
2025-02-10 16:00: 0.0035
2025-02-10 16:00: 0.9965
2025-02-10 17:00: 0.0035
2025-02-10 17:00: 0.9965
2025-02-10 18:00: 0.0035
2025-02-10 18:00: 0.9965
2025-02-10 19:00: 0.0015
2025-02-10 19:00: 0.9985
2025-02-10 20:00: 0.0010
2025-02-10 20:00: 0.9990
2025-02-10 21:00: 0.0010
2025-02-10 21:00: 0.9990
2025-02-10 22:00: 0.0010
Trade Summary: No trades available
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 520726
Question: Will Chris Stewart be Trump’s Director of National Intelligence?
Volume: 68385.167644
Price History:
2025-02-11 11:00: 0.0010
2025-02-11 11:00: 0.9990
2025-02-11 12:00: 0.0010
2025-02-11 12:00: 0.9990
2025-02-11 13:00: 0.0010
2025-02-11 13:00: 0.9990
2025-02-11 14:00: 0.0010
2025-02-11 14:00: 0.9990
2025-02-11 15:00: 0.0010
2025-02-11 15:00: 0.9990
2025-02-11 16:00: 0.0010
2025-02-11 16:00: 0.9990
2025-02-11 17:00: 0.0010
2025-02-11 17:00: 0.9990
2025-02-11 18:00: 0.0010
2025-02-11 18:00: 0.9990
2025-02-11 19:00: 0.0010
2025-02-11 19:00: 0.9990
2025-02-11 20:00: 0.0010
2025-02-11 20:00: 0.9990
2025-02-11 21:00: 0.0010
2025-02-11 21:00: 0.9990
2025-02-11 22:00: 0.0010
2025-02-11 22:00: 0.9990
2025-02-11 23:00: 0.0010
2025-02-11 23:00: 0.9990
2025-02-12 00:00: 0.0010
2025-02-12 00:00: 0.9990
2025-02-12 01:00: 0.0010
2025-02-12 01:00: 0.9990
Trade Summary: No trades available
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 623545
Question: Will Gérald Darmanin be the next Prime Minister of France?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 37189.806247
Price History:
2025-10-06 14:00: 0.5100
2025-10-06 14:00: 0.4900
2025-10-06 15:00: 0.4850
2025-10-06 15:00: 0.5150
2025-10-06 16:00: 0.4200
2025-10-06 16:00: 0.5800
2025-10-06 17:00: 0.5500
2025-10-06 17:00: 0.4500
2025-10-06 18:00: 0.6650
2025-10-06 18:00: 0.3350
2025-10-06 19:00: 0.9650
2025-10-06 19:00: 0.0350
2025-10-06 20:00: 0.9695
2025-10-06 20:00: 0.0305
2025-10-06 21:00: 0.9695
Trade Summary: Total trades: 9, Buy volume: 65.00, Sell volume: 9.94, Average price: 0.8756, Price range: 0.0100 - 0.9900

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 623545
Question: Will Gérald Darmanin be the next Prime Minister of France?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 37189.806247
Price History:
2025-10-06 21:00: 0.0305
2025-10-06 22:00: 0.0305
2025-10-06 22:00: 0.9695
2025-10-06 23:00: 0.9700
2025-10-06 23:00: 0.0300
2025-10-07 00:00: 0.0300
2025-10-07 00:00: 0.9700
2025-10-07 01:00: 0.0295
2025-10-07 01:00: 0.9705
2025-10-07 02:00: 0.0295
2025-10-07 02:00: 0.9705
2025-10-07 03:00: 0.9725
2025-10-07 03:00: 0.0275
2025-10-07 04:00: 0.9775
2025-10-07 04:00: 0.0225
Trade Summary: Total trades: 5, Buy volume: 43.92, Sell volume: 0.00, Average price: 0.9902, Price range: 0.9900 - 0.9910

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 623545
Question: Will Gérald Darmanin be the next Prime Minister of France?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 37189.806247
Price History:
2025-10-07 05:00: 0.0050
2025-10-07 05:00: 0.9950
2025-10-07 06:00: 0.9945
2025-10-07 06:00: 0.0055
2025-10-07 07:00: 0.9950
2025-10-07 07:00: 0.0050
2025-10-07 08:00: 0.9950
2025-10-07 08:00: 0.0050
2025-10-07 09:00: 0.9950
2025-10-07 09:00: 0.0050
2025-10-07 10:00: 0.9950
2025-10-07 10:00: 0.0050
2025-10-07 11:00: 0.0050
2025-10-07 11:00: 0.9950
2025-10-07 12:00: 0.9950
Trade Summary: Total trades: 26, Buy volume: 271.16, Sell volume: 52.04, Average price: 0.7295, Price range: 0.0030 - 0.9980

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 623545
Question: Will Gérald Darmanin be the next Prime Minister of France?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 37189.806247
Price History:
2025-10-07 12:00: 0.0050
2025-10-07 13:00: 0.0035
2025-10-07 13:00: 0.9965
2025-10-07 14:00: 0.9965
2025-10-07 14:00: 0.0035
2025-10-07 15:00: 0.0060
2025-10-07 15:00: 0.9940
2025-10-07 16:00: 0.9945
2025-10-07 16:00: 0.0055
2025-10-07 17:00: 0.9940
2025-10-07 17:00: 0.0060
2025-10-07 18:00: 0.9940
2025-10-07 18:00: 0.0060
2025-10-07 19:00: 0.9950
2025-10-07 19:00: 0.0050
Trade Summary: Total trades: 27, Buy volume: 1004.16, Sell volume: 88.91, Average price: 0.6289, Price range: 0.0030 - 0.9970

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 623545
Question: Will Gérald Darmanin be the next Prime Minister of France?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 37189.806247
Price History:
2025-10-07 20:00: 0.9950
2025-10-07 20:00: 0.0050
2025-10-07 21:00: 0.0050
2025-10-07 21:00: 0.9950
2025-10-07 22:00: 0.0050
2025-10-07 22:00: 0.9950
2025-10-07 23:00: 0.9950
2025-10-07 23:00: 0.0050
2025-10-08 00:00: 0.9950
2025-10-08 00:00: 0.0050
2025-10-08 01:00: 0.9950
2025-10-08 01:00: 0.0050
2025-10-08 02:00: 0.9950
2025-10-08 02:00: 0.0050
2025-10-08 03:00: 0.9950
Trade Summary: Total trades: 340, Buy volume: 19910.15, Sell volume: 17279.66, Average price: 0.6961, Price range: 0.0010 - 0.9990

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 623545
Question: Will Gérald Darmanin be the next Prime Minister of France?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 37189.806247
Price History:
2025-10-08 03:00: 0.0050
2025-10-08 04:00: 0.9965
2025-10-08 04:00: 0.0035
2025-10-08 05:00: 0.9965
2025-10-08 05:00: 0.0035
2025-10-08 06:00: 0.9965
2025-10-08 06:00: 0.0035
2025-10-08 07:00: 0.9965
2025-10-08 07:00: 0.0035
2025-10-08 08:00: 0.9960
2025-10-08 08:00: 0.0040
2025-10-08 09:00: 0.9960
2025-10-08 09:00: 0.0040
2025-10-08 10:00: 0.0035
2025-10-08 10:00: 0.9965
Trade Summary: Total trades: 18, Buy volume: 777.84, Sell volume: 508.25, Average price: 0.7759, Price range: 0.0030 - 0.9970

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 623545
Question: Will Gérald Darmanin be the next Prime Minister of France?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 37189.806247
Price History:
2025-10-08 11:00: 0.0035
2025-10-08 11:00: 0.9965
2025-10-08 12:00: 0.0040
2025-10-08 12:00: 0.9960
2025-10-08 13:00: 0.0035
2025-10-08 13:00: 0.9965
2025-10-08 14:00: 0.0035
2025-10-08 14:00: 0.9965
2025-10-08 15:00: 0.0035
2025-10-08 15:00: 0.9965
2025-10-08 16:00: 0.0035
2025-10-08 16:00: 0.9965
2025-10-08 17:00: 0.0035
2025-10-08 17:00: 0.9965
2025-10-08 18:00: 0.0035
Trade Summary: Total trades: 38, Buy volume: 3708.62, Sell volume: 3011.61, Average price: 0.8660, Price range: 0.0030 - 0.9970

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 623545
Question: Will Gérald Darmanin be the next Prime Minister of France?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 37189.806247
Price History:
2025-10-08 18:00: 0.9965
2025-10-08 19:00: 0.0035
2025-10-08 19:00: 0.9965
2025-10-08 20:00: 0.0035
2025-10-08 20:00: 0.9965
2025-10-08 21:00: 0.0035
2025-10-08 21:00: 0.9965
2025-10-08 22:00: 0.0035
2025-10-08 22:00: 0.9965
2025-10-08 23:00: 0.0035
2025-10-08 23:00: 0.9965
2025-10-09 00:00: 0.0035
2025-10-09 00:00: 0.9965
2025-10-09 01:00: 0.0035
2025-10-09 01:00: 0.9965
Trade Summary: Total trades: 25, Buy volume: 2349.26, Sell volume: 1520.18, Average price: 0.7982, Price range: 0.0030 - 0.9970

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 623545
Question: Will Gérald Darmanin be the next Prime Minister of France?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 37189.806247
Price History:
2025-10-09 02:00: 0.9965
2025-10-09 02:00: 0.0035
2025-10-09 03:00: 0.0035
2025-10-09 03:00: 0.9965
2025-10-09 04:00: 0.0080
2025-10-09 04:00: 0.9920
2025-10-09 05:00: 0.0080
2025-10-09 05:00: 0.9920
2025-10-09 06:00: 0.0080
2025-10-09 06:00: 0.9920
2025-10-09 07:00: 0.0075
2025-10-09 07:00: 0.9925
2025-10-09 08:00: 0.0080
2025-10-09 08:00: 0.9920
2025-10-09 09:00: 0.0075
Trade Summary: Total trades: 16, Buy volume: 1600.03, Sell volume: 9.49, Average price: 0.8104, Price range: 0.0040 - 0.9970

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 623545
Question: Will Gérald Darmanin be the next Prime Minister of France?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 37189.806247
Price History:
2025-10-09 09:00: 0.9925
2025-10-09 10:00: 0.0090
2025-10-09 10:00: 0.9910
2025-10-09 11:00: 0.9910
2025-10-09 11:00: 0.0090
2025-10-09 12:00: 0.0085
2025-10-09 12:00: 0.9915
2025-10-09 13:00: 0.0085
2025-10-09 13:00: 0.9915
2025-10-09 14:00: 0.0075
2025-10-09 14:00: 0.9925
2025-10-09 15:00: 0.0080
2025-10-09 15:00: 0.9920
2025-10-09 16:00: 0.0080
2025-10-09 16:00: 0.9920
Trade Summary: Total trades: 27, Buy volume: 583.07, Sell volume: 111.64, Average price: 0.7391, Price range: 0.0030 - 0.9970

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 623545
Question: Will Gérald Darmanin be the next Prime Minister of France?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 37189.806247
Price History:
2025-10-09 17:00: 0.0075
2025-10-09 17:00: 0.9925
2025-10-09 18:00: 0.0080
2025-10-09 18:00: 0.9920
2025-10-09 19:00: 0.0080
2025-10-09 19:00: 0.9920
2025-10-09 20:00: 0.0065
2025-10-09 20:00: 0.9935
2025-10-09 21:00: 0.0070
2025-10-09 21:00: 0.9930
2025-10-09 22:00: 0.0070
2025-10-09 22:00: 0.9930
2025-10-09 23:00: 0.0070
2025-10-09 23:00: 0.9930
2025-10-10 00:00: 0.0075
Trade Summary: Total trades: 5, Buy volume: 20.00, Sell volume: 56.07, Average price: 0.2024, Price range: 0.0040 - 0.9960

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 623545
Question: Will Gérald Darmanin be the next Prime Minister of France?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 37189.806247
Price History:
2025-10-10 00:00: 0.9925
2025-10-10 01:00: 0.0075
2025-10-10 01:00: 0.9925
2025-10-10 02:00: 0.0070
2025-10-10 02:00: 0.9930
2025-10-10 03:00: 0.0070
2025-10-10 03:00: 0.9930
2025-10-10 04:00: 0.0035
2025-10-10 04:00: 0.9965
2025-10-10 05:00: 0.9965
2025-10-10 05:00: 0.0035
2025-10-10 06:00: 0.0035
2025-10-10 06:00: 0.9965
2025-10-10 07:00: 0.9965
2025-10-10 07:00: 0.0035
Trade Summary: Total trades: 28, Buy volume: 321.90, Sell volume: 62.19, Average price: 0.9259, Price range: 0.0030 - 0.9970

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 623545
Question: Will Gérald Darmanin be the next Prime Minister of France?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 37189.806247
Price History:
2025-10-10 08:00: 0.0035
2025-10-10 08:00: 0.9965
2025-10-10 09:00: 0.0030
2025-10-10 09:00: 0.9970
2025-10-10 10:00: 0.9975
2025-10-10 10:00: 0.0025
2025-10-10 11:00: 0.9975
2025-10-10 11:00: 0.0025
2025-10-10 12:00: 0.9975
2025-10-10 12:00: 0.0025
2025-10-10 13:00: 0.9970
2025-10-10 13:00: 0.0030
2025-10-10 14:00: 0.9970
2025-10-10 14:00: 0.0030
2025-10-10 15:00: 0.0030
Trade Summary: Total trades: 51, Buy volume: 1436.04, Sell volume: 849.52, Average price: 0.7442, Price range: 0.0010 - 0.9990

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 520730
Question: Will Ric Grenell be Trump’s Director of National Intelligence?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 11854.102084
Price History:
2025-01-28 17:00: 0.5000
2025-01-28 17:00: 0.5000
2025-01-28 18:00: 0.2450
2025-01-28 18:00: 0.7550
2025-01-28 19:00: 0.0205
2025-01-28 19:00: 0.9795
2025-01-28 20:00: 0.0205
2025-01-28 20:00: 0.9795
2025-01-28 21:00: 0.0205
2025-01-28 21:00: 0.9795
2025-01-28 22:00: 0.0200
2025-01-28 22:00: 0.9800
2025-01-28 23:00: 0.0200
2025-01-28 23:00: 0.9800
2025-01-29 00:00: 0.0200
2025-01-29 00:00: 0.9800
2025-01-29 01:00: 0.0200
2025-01-29 01:00: 0.9800
2025-01-29 02:00: 0.0200
2025-01-29 02:00: 0.9800
2025-01-29 03:00: 0.0200
2025-01-29 03:00: 0.9800
2025-01-29 04:00: 0.0195
2025-01-29 04:00: 0.9805
2025-01-29 05:00: 0.0195
2025-01-29 05:00: 0.9805
2025-01-29 06:00: 0.0195
2025-01-29 06:00: 0.9805
2025-01-29 07:00: 0.0190
2025-01-29 07:00: 0.9810
2025-01-29 08:00: 0.0190
2025-01-29 08:00: 0.9810
2025-01-29 09:00: 0.0190
2025-01-29 09:00: 0.9810
2025-01-29 10:00: 0.0195
2025-01-29 10:00: 0.9805
2025-01-29 11:00: 0.0225
2025-01-29 11:00: 0.9775
2025-01-29 12:00: 0.0225
2025-01-29 12:00: 0.9775
2025-01-29 13:00: 0.0225
2025-01-29 13:00: 0.9775
2025-01-29 14:00: 0.0225
2025-01-29 14:00: 0.9775
2025-01-29 15:00: 0.0225
2025-01-29 15:00: 0.9775
2025-01-29 16:00: 0.1190
2025-01-29 16:00: 0.8810
2025-01-29 17:00: 0.1330
2025-01-29 17:00: 0.8670
Trade Summary: No trades available

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 520730
Question: Will Ric Grenell be Trump’s Director of National Intelligence?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 11854.102084
Price History:
2025-01-29 20:00: 0.8680
2025-01-29 21:00: 0.1330
2025-01-29 21:00: 0.8670
2025-01-29 22:00: 0.1240
2025-01-29 22:00: 0.8760
2025-01-29 23:00: 0.1270
2025-01-29 23:00: 0.8730
2025-01-30 00:00: 0.1280
2025-01-30 00:00: 0.8720
2025-01-30 01:00: 0.1250
2025-01-30 01:00: 0.8750
2025-01-30 02:00: 0.1330
2025-01-30 02:00: 0.8670
2025-01-30 03:00: 0.1330
2025-01-30 03:00: 0.8670
2025-01-30 04:00: 0.1255
2025-01-30 04:00: 0.8745
2025-01-30 05:00: 0.1185
2025-01-30 05:00: 0.8815
2025-01-30 06:00: 0.1180
2025-01-30 06:00: 0.8820
2025-01-30 07:00: 0.1140
2025-01-30 07:00: 0.8860
2025-01-30 08:00: 0.1155
2025-01-30 08:00: 0.8845
2025-01-30 09:00: 0.1125
2025-01-30 09:00: 0.8875
2025-01-30 10:00: 0.1140
2025-01-30 10:00: 0.8860
2025-01-30 11:00: 0.1135
2025-01-30 11:00: 0.8865
2025-01-30 12:00: 0.1130
2025-01-30 12:00: 0.8870
2025-01-30 13:00: 0.0765
2025-01-30 13:00: 0.9235
2025-01-30 14:00: 0.0580
2025-01-30 14:00: 0.9420
2025-01-30 15:00: 0.0560
2025-01-30 15:00: 0.9440
2025-01-30 16:00: 0.0560
2025-01-30 16:00: 0.9440
2025-01-30 17:00: 0.0530
2025-01-30 17:00: 0.9470
2025-01-30 18:00: 0.0475
2025-01-30 18:00: 0.9525
2025-01-30 19:00: 0.0475
2025-01-30 19:00: 0.9525
2025-01-30 20:00: 0.0475
2025-01-30 20:00: 0.9525
2025-01-30 21:00: 0.0510
Trade Summary: No trades available

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 520730
Question: Will Ric Grenell be Trump’s Director of National Intelligence?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 11854.102084
Price History:
2025-01-31 00:00: 0.0660
2025-01-31 00:00: 0.9340
2025-01-31 01:00: 0.0690
2025-01-31 01:00: 0.9310
2025-01-31 02:00: 0.1595
2025-01-31 02:00: 0.8405
2025-01-31 03:00: 0.1605
2025-01-31 03:00: 0.8395
2025-01-31 04:00: 0.1445
2025-01-31 04:00: 0.8555
2025-01-31 05:00: 0.1520
2025-01-31 05:00: 0.8480
2025-01-31 06:00: 0.1500
2025-01-31 06:00: 0.8500
2025-01-31 07:00: 0.1645
2025-01-31 07:00: 0.8355
2025-01-31 08:00: 0.1565
2025-01-31 08:00: 0.8435
2025-01-31 09:00: 0.1535
2025-01-31 09:00: 0.8465
2025-01-31 10:00: 0.1320
2025-01-31 10:00: 0.8680
2025-01-31 11:00: 0.1365
2025-01-31 11:00: 0.8635
2025-01-31 12:00: 0.1115
2025-01-31 12:00: 0.8885
2025-01-31 13:00: 0.1290
2025-01-31 13:00: 0.8710
2025-01-31 14:00: 0.1265
2025-01-31 14:00: 0.8735
2025-01-31 15:00: 0.1295
2025-01-31 15:00: 0.8705
2025-01-31 16:00: 0.1265
2025-01-31 16:00: 0.8735
2025-01-31 17:00: 0.1015
2025-01-31 17:00: 0.8985
2025-01-31 18:00: 0.1035
2025-01-31 18:00: 0.8965
2025-01-31 19:00: 0.1075
2025-01-31 19:00: 0.8925
2025-01-31 20:00: 0.1105
2025-01-31 20:00: 0.8895
2025-01-31 21:00: 0.1040
2025-01-31 21:00: 0.8960
2025-01-31 22:00: 0.1100
2025-01-31 22:00: 0.8900
2025-01-31 23:00: 0.1325
2025-01-31 23:00: 0.8675
2025-02-01 00:00: 0.1280
2025-02-01 00:00: 0.8720
Trade Summary: No trades available

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 520730
Question: Will Ric Grenell be Trump’s Director of National Intelligence?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 11854.102084
Price History:
2025-02-01 03:00: 0.8660
2025-02-01 04:00: 0.1430
2025-02-01 04:00: 0.8570
2025-02-01 05:00: 0.1340
2025-02-01 05:00: 0.8660
2025-02-01 06:00: 0.1355
2025-02-01 06:00: 0.8645
2025-02-01 07:00: 0.1390
2025-02-01 07:00: 0.8610
2025-02-01 08:00: 0.1395
2025-02-01 08:00: 0.8605
2025-02-01 09:00: 0.1410
2025-02-01 09:00: 0.8590
2025-02-01 10:00: 0.1365
2025-02-01 10:00: 0.8635
2025-02-01 11:00: 0.1325
2025-02-01 11:00: 0.8675
2025-02-01 12:00: 0.1300
2025-02-01 12:00: 0.8700
2025-02-01 13:00: 0.1330
2025-02-01 13:00: 0.8670
2025-02-01 14:00: 0.1285
2025-02-01 14:00: 0.8715
2025-02-01 15:00: 0.1285
2025-02-01 15:00: 0.8715
2025-02-01 16:00: 0.1285
2025-02-01 16:00: 0.8715
2025-02-01 17:00: 0.1295
2025-02-01 17:00: 0.8705
2025-02-01 18:00: 0.1300
2025-02-01 18:00: 0.8700
2025-02-01 19:00: 0.1290
2025-02-01 19:00: 0.8710
2025-02-01 20:00: 0.1290
2025-02-01 20:00: 0.8710
2025-02-01 21:00: 0.1300
2025-02-01 21:00: 0.8700
2025-02-01 22:00: 0.1295
2025-02-01 22:00: 0.8705
2025-02-01 23:00: 0.1220
2025-02-01 23:00: 0.8780
2025-02-02 00:00: 0.0930
2025-02-02 00:00: 0.9070
2025-02-02 01:00: 0.0940
2025-02-02 01:00: 0.9060
2025-02-02 02:00: 0.0945
2025-02-02 02:00: 0.9055
2025-02-02 03:00: 0.0945
2025-02-02 03:00: 0.9055
2025-02-02 04:00: 0.0950
Trade Summary: No trades available

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 520730
Question: Will Ric Grenell be Trump’s Director of National Intelligence?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 11854.102084
Price History:
2025-02-02 07:00: 0.0945
2025-02-02 07:00: 0.9055
2025-02-02 08:00: 0.0950
2025-02-02 08:00: 0.9050
2025-02-02 09:00: 0.0945
2025-02-02 09:00: 0.9055
2025-02-02 10:00: 0.0945
2025-02-02 10:00: 0.9055
2025-02-02 11:00: 0.0985
2025-02-02 11:00: 0.9015
2025-02-02 12:00: 0.0985
2025-02-02 12:00: 0.9015
2025-02-02 13:00: 0.0990
2025-02-02 13:00: 0.9010
2025-02-02 14:00: 0.0980
2025-02-02 14:00: 0.9020
2025-02-02 15:00: 0.0610
2025-02-02 15:00: 0.9390
2025-02-02 16:00: 0.0665
2025-02-02 16:00: 0.9335
2025-02-02 17:00: 0.0690
2025-02-02 17:00: 0.9310
2025-02-02 18:00: 0.0690
2025-02-02 18:00: 0.9310
2025-02-02 19:00: 0.0690
2025-02-02 19:00: 0.9310
2025-02-02 20:00: 0.0720
2025-02-02 20:00: 0.9280
2025-02-02 21:00: 0.0665
2025-02-02 21:00: 0.9335
2025-02-02 22:00: 0.0670
2025-02-02 22:00: 0.9330
2025-02-02 23:00: 0.0665
2025-02-02 23:00: 0.9335
2025-02-03 00:00: 0.0660
2025-02-03 00:00: 0.9340
2025-02-03 01:00: 0.0650
2025-02-03 01:00: 0.9350
2025-02-03 02:00: 0.0645
2025-02-03 02:00: 0.9355
2025-02-03 03:00: 0.0645
2025-02-03 03:00: 0.9355
2025-02-03 04:00: 0.0605
2025-02-03 04:00: 0.9395
2025-02-03 05:00: 0.0605
2025-02-03 05:00: 0.9395
2025-02-03 06:00: 0.0605
2025-02-03 06:00: 0.9395
2025-02-03 07:00: 0.0605
2025-02-03 07:00: 0.9395
Trade Summary: No trades available

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 520730
Question: Will Ric Grenell be Trump’s Director of National Intelligence?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 11854.102084
Price History:
2025-02-03 10:00: 0.9385
2025-02-03 11:00: 0.0615
2025-02-03 11:00: 0.9385
2025-02-03 12:00: 0.0630
2025-02-03 12:00: 0.9370
2025-02-03 13:00: 0.0630
2025-02-03 13:00: 0.9370
2025-02-03 14:00: 0.0575
2025-02-03 14:00: 0.9425
2025-02-03 15:00: 0.0650
2025-02-03 15:00: 0.9350
2025-02-03 16:00: 0.0650
2025-02-03 16:00: 0.9350
2025-02-03 17:00: 0.0015
2025-02-03 17:00: 0.9985
2025-02-03 18:00: 0.0030
2025-02-03 18:00: 0.9970
2025-02-03 19:00: 0.0035
2025-02-03 19:00: 0.9965
2025-02-03 20:00: 0.0030
2025-02-03 20:00: 0.9970
2025-02-03 21:00: 0.0030
2025-02-03 21:00: 0.9970
2025-02-03 22:00: 0.0030
2025-02-03 22:00: 0.9970
2025-02-03 23:00: 0.0030
2025-02-03 23:00: 0.9970
2025-02-04 00:00: 0.0030
2025-02-04 00:00: 0.9970
2025-02-04 01:00: 0.0030
2025-02-04 01:00: 0.9970
2025-02-04 02:00: 0.0025
2025-02-04 02:00: 0.9975
2025-02-04 03:00: 0.0025
2025-02-04 03:00: 0.9975
2025-02-04 04:00: 0.0025
2025-02-04 04:00: 0.9975
2025-02-04 05:00: 0.0025
2025-02-04 05:00: 0.9975
2025-02-04 06:00: 0.0100
2025-02-04 06:00: 0.9900
2025-02-04 07:00: 0.0095
2025-02-04 07:00: 0.9905
2025-02-04 08:00: 0.0090
2025-02-04 08:00: 0.9910
2025-02-04 09:00: 0.0135
2025-02-04 09:00: 0.9865
2025-02-04 10:00: 0.0110
2025-02-04 10:00: 0.9890
2025-02-04 11:00: 0.0085
Trade Summary: No trades available

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 520730
Question: Will Ric Grenell be Trump’s Director of National Intelligence?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 11854.102084
Price History:
2025-02-04 14:00: 0.0060
2025-02-04 14:00: 0.9940
2025-02-04 15:00: 0.0055
2025-02-04 15:00: 0.9945
2025-02-04 16:00: 0.0055
2025-02-04 16:00: 0.9945
2025-02-04 17:00: 0.0055
2025-02-04 17:00: 0.9945
2025-02-04 18:00: 0.0055
2025-02-04 18:00: 0.9945
2025-02-04 19:00: 0.0055
2025-02-04 19:00: 0.9945
2025-02-04 20:00: 0.0055
2025-02-04 20:00: 0.9945
2025-02-04 21:00: 0.0055
2025-02-04 21:00: 0.9945
2025-02-04 22:00: 0.0055
2025-02-04 22:00: 0.9945
2025-02-04 23:00: 0.0055
2025-02-04 23:00: 0.9945
2025-02-05 00:00: 0.0055
2025-02-05 00:00: 0.9945
2025-02-05 01:00: 0.0055
2025-02-05 01:00: 0.9945
2025-02-05 02:00: 0.0055
2025-02-05 02:00: 0.9945
2025-02-05 03:00: 0.0030
2025-02-05 03:00: 0.9970
2025-02-05 04:00: 0.0030
2025-02-05 04:00: 0.9970
2025-02-05 05:00: 0.0030
2025-02-05 05:00: 0.9970
2025-02-05 06:00: 0.0030
2025-02-05 06:00: 0.9970
2025-02-05 07:00: 0.0025
2025-02-05 07:00: 0.9975
2025-02-05 08:00: 0.0025
2025-02-05 08:00: 0.9975
2025-02-05 09:00: 0.0020
2025-02-05 09:00: 0.9980
2025-02-05 10:00: 0.0025
2025-02-05 10:00: 0.9975
2025-02-05 11:00: 0.0020
2025-02-05 11:00: 0.9980
2025-02-05 12:00: 0.0020
2025-02-05 12:00: 0.9980
2025-02-05 13:00: 0.0020
2025-02-05 13:00: 0.9980
2025-02-05 14:00: 0.0020
2025-02-05 14:00: 0.9980
Trade Summary: No trades available

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 520730
Question: Will Ric Grenell be Trump’s Director of National Intelligence?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 11854.102084
Price History:
2025-02-05 17:00: 0.9980
2025-02-05 18:00: 0.0025
2025-02-05 18:00: 0.9975
2025-02-05 19:00: 0.0020
2025-02-05 19:00: 0.9980
2025-02-05 20:00: 0.0020
2025-02-05 20:00: 0.9980
2025-02-05 21:00: 0.0020
2025-02-05 21:00: 0.9980
2025-02-05 22:00: 0.0025
2025-02-05 22:00: 0.9975
2025-02-05 23:00: 0.0020
2025-02-05 23:00: 0.9980
2025-02-06 00:00: 0.0025
2025-02-06 00:00: 0.9975
2025-02-06 01:00: 0.0025
2025-02-06 01:00: 0.9975
2025-02-06 02:00: 0.0020
2025-02-06 02:00: 0.9980
2025-02-06 03:00: 0.0020
2025-02-06 03:00: 0.9980
2025-02-06 04:00: 0.0020
2025-02-06 04:00: 0.9980
2025-02-06 05:00: 0.0025
2025-02-06 05:00: 0.9975
2025-02-06 06:00: 0.0020
2025-02-06 06:00: 0.9980
2025-02-06 07:00: 0.0025
2025-02-06 07:00: 0.9975
2025-02-06 08:00: 0.0025
2025-02-06 08:00: 0.9975
2025-02-06 09:00: 0.0025
2025-02-06 09:00: 0.9975
2025-02-06 10:00: 0.0020
2025-02-06 10:00: 0.9980
2025-02-06 11:00: 0.0020
2025-02-06 11:00: 0.9980
2025-02-06 12:00: 0.0020
2025-02-06 12:00: 0.9980
2025-02-06 13:00: 0.0025
2025-02-06 13:00: 0.9975
2025-02-06 14:00: 0.0020
2025-02-06 14:00: 0.9980
2025-02-06 15:00: 0.0025
2025-02-06 15:00: 0.9975
2025-02-06 16:00: 0.0025
2025-02-06 16:00: 0.9975
2025-02-06 17:00: 0.0025
2025-02-06 17:00: 0.9975
2025-02-06 18:00: 0.0020
Trade Summary: No trades available

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 520730
Question: Will Ric Grenell be Trump’s Director of National Intelligence?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 11854.102084
Price History:
2025-02-06 21:00: 0.0030
2025-02-06 21:00: 0.9970
2025-02-06 22:00: 0.0025
2025-02-06 22:00: 0.9975
2025-02-06 23:00: 0.0025
2025-02-06 23:00: 0.9975
2025-02-07 00:00: 0.0030
2025-02-07 00:00: 0.9970
2025-02-07 01:00: 0.0025
2025-02-07 01:00: 0.9975
2025-02-07 02:00: 0.0030
2025-02-07 02:00: 0.9970
2025-02-07 03:00: 0.0025
2025-02-07 03:00: 0.9975
2025-02-07 04:00: 0.0030
2025-02-07 04:00: 0.9970
2025-02-07 05:00: 0.0030
2025-02-07 05:00: 0.9970
2025-02-07 06:00: 0.0030
2025-02-07 06:00: 0.9970
2025-02-07 07:00: 0.0030
2025-02-07 07:00: 0.9970
2025-02-07 08:00: 0.0030
2025-02-07 08:00: 0.9970
2025-02-07 09:00: 0.0030
2025-02-07 09:00: 0.9970
2025-02-07 10:00: 0.0030
2025-02-07 10:00: 0.9970
2025-02-07 11:00: 0.0030
2025-02-07 11:00: 0.9970
2025-02-07 12:00: 0.0025
2025-02-07 12:00: 0.9975
2025-02-07 13:00: 0.0020
2025-02-07 13:00: 0.9980
2025-02-07 14:00: 0.0020
2025-02-07 14:00: 0.9980
2025-02-07 15:00: 0.0020
2025-02-07 15:00: 0.9980
2025-02-07 16:00: 0.0020
2025-02-07 16:00: 0.9980
2025-02-07 17:00: 0.0020
2025-02-07 17:00: 0.9980
2025-02-07 18:00: 0.0020
2025-02-07 18:00: 0.9980
2025-02-07 19:00: 0.0015
2025-02-07 19:00: 0.9985
2025-02-07 20:00: 0.0015
2025-02-07 20:00: 0.9985
2025-02-07 21:00: 0.0015
2025-02-07 21:00: 0.9985
Trade Summary: No trades available

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 520730
Question: Will Ric Grenell be Trump’s Director of National Intelligence?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 11854.102084
Price History:
2025-02-08 00:00: 0.9985
2025-02-08 01:00: 0.0015
2025-02-08 01:00: 0.9985
2025-02-08 02:00: 0.0015
2025-02-08 02:00: 0.9985
2025-02-08 03:00: 0.0015
2025-02-08 03:00: 0.9985
2025-02-08 04:00: 0.0015
2025-02-08 04:00: 0.9985
2025-02-08 05:00: 0.0015
2025-02-08 05:00: 0.9985
2025-02-08 06:00: 0.0015
2025-02-08 06:00: 0.9985
2025-02-08 07:00: 0.0015
2025-02-08 07:00: 0.9985
2025-02-08 08:00: 0.0015
2025-02-08 08:00: 0.9985
2025-02-08 09:00: 0.0030
2025-02-08 09:00: 0.9970
2025-02-08 10:00: 0.0060
2025-02-08 10:00: 0.9940
2025-02-08 11:00: 0.0070
2025-02-08 11:00: 0.9930
2025-02-08 12:00: 0.0070
2025-02-08 12:00: 0.9930
2025-02-08 13:00: 0.0070
2025-02-08 13:00: 0.9930
2025-02-08 14:00: 0.0060
2025-02-08 14:00: 0.9940
2025-02-08 15:00: 0.0060
2025-02-08 15:00: 0.9940
2025-02-08 16:00: 0.0060
2025-02-08 16:00: 0.9940
2025-02-08 17:00: 0.0060
2025-02-08 17:00: 0.9940
2025-02-08 18:00: 0.0060
2025-02-08 18:00: 0.9940
2025-02-08 19:00: 0.0060
2025-02-08 19:00: 0.9940
2025-02-08 20:00: 0.0060
2025-02-08 20:00: 0.9940
2025-02-08 21:00: 0.0060
2025-02-08 21:00: 0.9940
2025-02-08 22:00: 0.0060
2025-02-08 22:00: 0.9940
2025-02-08 23:00: 0.0060
2025-02-08 23:00: 0.9940
2025-02-09 00:00: 0.0060
2025-02-09 00:00: 0.9940
2025-02-09 01:00: 0.0060
Trade Summary: No trades available

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 520730
Question: Will Ric Grenell be Trump’s Director of National Intelligence?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 11854.102084
Price History:
2025-02-09 04:00: 0.0060
2025-02-09 04:00: 0.9940
2025-02-09 05:00: 0.0060
2025-02-09 05:00: 0.9940
2025-02-09 06:00: 0.0040
2025-02-09 06:00: 0.9960
2025-02-09 07:00: 0.0040
2025-02-09 07:00: 0.9960
2025-02-09 08:00: 0.0040
2025-02-09 08:00: 0.9960
2025-02-09 09:00: 0.0040
2025-02-09 09:00: 0.9960
2025-02-09 10:00: 0.0040
2025-02-09 10:00: 0.9960
2025-02-09 11:00: 0.0020
2025-02-09 11:00: 0.9980
2025-02-09 12:00: 0.0025
2025-02-09 12:00: 0.9975
2025-02-09 13:00: 0.0025
2025-02-09 13:00: 0.9975
2025-02-09 14:00: 0.0025
2025-02-09 14:00: 0.9975
2025-02-09 15:00: 0.0030
2025-02-09 15:00: 0.9970
2025-02-09 16:00: 0.0030
2025-02-09 16:00: 0.9970
2025-02-09 17:00: 0.0030
2025-02-09 17:00: 0.9970
2025-02-09 18:00: 0.0030
2025-02-09 18:00: 0.9970
2025-02-09 19:00: 0.0030
2025-02-09 19:00: 0.9970
2025-02-09 20:00: 0.0030
2025-02-09 20:00: 0.9970
2025-02-09 21:00: 0.0030
2025-02-09 21:00: 0.9970
2025-02-09 22:00: 0.0030
2025-02-09 22:00: 0.9970
2025-02-09 23:00: 0.0030
2025-02-09 23:00: 0.9970
2025-02-10 00:00: 0.0030
2025-02-10 00:00: 0.9970
2025-02-10 01:00: 0.0030
2025-02-10 01:00: 0.9970
2025-02-10 02:00: 0.0030
2025-02-10 02:00: 0.9970
2025-02-10 03:00: 0.0030
2025-02-10 03:00: 0.9970
2025-02-10 04:00: 0.0030
2025-02-10 04:00: 0.9970
Trade Summary: No trades available

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 520730
Question: Will Ric Grenell be Trump’s Director of National Intelligence?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 11854.102084
Price History:
2025-02-10 07:00: 0.9970
2025-02-10 08:00: 0.0030
2025-02-10 08:00: 0.9970
2025-02-10 09:00: 0.0030
2025-02-10 09:00: 0.9970
2025-02-10 10:00: 0.0030
2025-02-10 10:00: 0.9970
2025-02-10 11:00: 0.0030
2025-02-10 11:00: 0.9970
2025-02-10 12:00: 0.0030
2025-02-10 12:00: 0.9970
2025-02-10 13:00: 0.0015
2025-02-10 13:00: 0.9985
2025-02-10 14:00: 0.0015
2025-02-10 14:00: 0.9985
2025-02-10 15:00: 0.0030
2025-02-10 15:00: 0.9970
2025-02-10 16:00: 0.0025
2025-02-10 16:00: 0.9975
2025-02-10 17:00: 0.0025
2025-02-10 17:00: 0.9975
2025-02-10 18:00: 0.0025
2025-02-10 18:00: 0.9975
2025-02-10 19:00: 0.0010
2025-02-10 19:00: 0.9990
2025-02-10 20:00: 0.0010
2025-02-10 20:00: 0.9990
2025-02-10 21:00: 0.0010
2025-02-10 21:00: 0.9990
2025-02-10 22:00: 0.0010
2025-02-10 22:00: 0.9990
2025-02-10 23:00: 0.0010
2025-02-10 23:00: 0.9990
2025-02-11 00:00: 0.0010
2025-02-11 00:00: 0.9990
2025-02-11 01:00: 0.0010
2025-02-11 01:00: 0.9990
2025-02-11 02:00: 0.0010
2025-02-11 02:00: 0.9990
2025-02-11 03:00: 0.0010
2025-02-11 03:00: 0.9990
2025-02-11 04:00: 0.0010
2025-02-11 04:00: 0.9990
2025-02-11 05:00: 0.0010
2025-02-11 05:00: 0.9990
2025-02-11 06:00: 0.0010
2025-02-11 06:00: 0.9990
2025-02-11 07:00: 0.0010
2025-02-11 07:00: 0.9990
2025-02-11 08:00: 0.0010
Trade Summary: No trades available

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 520730
Question: Will Ric Grenell be Trump’s Director of National Intelligence?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 11854.102084
Price History:
2025-02-11 11:00: 0.0010
2025-02-11 11:00: 0.9990
2025-02-11 12:00: 0.0010
2025-02-11 12:00: 0.9990
2025-02-11 13:00: 0.0010
2025-02-11 13:00: 0.9990
2025-02-11 14:00: 0.0010
2025-02-11 14:00: 0.9990
2025-02-11 15:00: 0.0010
2025-02-11 15:00: 0.9990
2025-02-11 16:00: 0.0010
2025-02-11 16:00: 0.9990
2025-02-11 17:00: 0.0010
2025-02-11 17:00: 0.9990
2025-02-11 18:00: 0.0010
2025-02-11 18:00: 0.9990
2025-02-11 19:00: 0.0010
2025-02-11 19:00: 0.9990
2025-02-11 20:00: 0.0010
2025-02-11 20:00: 0.9990
2025-02-11 21:00: 0.0010
2025-02-11 21:00: 0.9990
2025-02-11 22:00: 0.0010
2025-02-11 22:00: 0.9990
2025-02-11 23:00: 0.0010
2025-02-11 23:00: 0.9990
2025-02-12 00:00: 0.0010
2025-02-12 00:00: 0.9990
2025-02-12 01:00: 0.0010
2025-02-12 01:00: 0.9990
2025-02-12 02:00: 0.0010
2025-02-12 02:00: 0.9990
2025-02-12 03:00: 0.0010
2025-02-12 03:00: 0.9990
2025-02-12 04:00: 0.0010
2025-02-12 04:00: 0.9990
2025-02-12 05:00: 0.0005
2025-02-12 05:00: 0.9995
2025-02-12 06:00: 0.0005
2025-02-12 06:00: 0.9995
2025-02-12 07:00: 0.0005
2025-02-12 07:00: 0.9995
2025-02-12 08:00: 0.0005
2025-02-12 08:00: 0.9995
2025-02-12 09:00: 0.0005
2025-02-12 09:00: 0.9995
2025-02-12 10:00: 0.0005
2025-02-12 10:00: 0.9995
2025-02-12 11:00: 0.0005
2025-02-12 11:00: 0.9995
Trade Summary: No trades available

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 623545
Question: Will Gérald Darmanin be the next Prime Minister of France?
Volume: 37189.806247
Price History:
2025-10-06 14:00: 0.5100
2025-10-06 14:00: 0.4900
2025-10-06 15:00: 0.4850
2025-10-06 15:00: 0.5150
2025-10-06 16:00: 0.4200
2025-10-06 16:00: 0.5800
2025-10-06 17:00: 0.5500
2025-10-06 17:00: 0.4500
2025-10-06 18:00: 0.6650
2025-10-06 18:00: 0.3350
2025-10-06 19:00: 0.9650
2025-10-06 19:00: 0.0350
2025-10-06 20:00: 0.9695
2025-10-06 20:00: 0.0305
2025-10-06 21:00: 0.9695
Trade Summary: Total trades: 9, Buy volume: 65.00, Sell volume: 9.94, Average price: 0.8756, Price range: 0.0100 - 0.9900
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 623545
Question: Will Gérald Darmanin be the next Prime Minister of France?
Volume: 37189.806247
Price History:
2025-10-06 21:00: 0.0305
2025-10-06 22:00: 0.0305
2025-10-06 22:00: 0.9695
2025-10-06 23:00: 0.9700
2025-10-06 23:00: 0.0300
2025-10-07 00:00: 0.0300
2025-10-07 00:00: 0.9700
2025-10-07 01:00: 0.0295
2025-10-07 01:00: 0.9705
2025-10-07 02:00: 0.0295
2025-10-07 02:00: 0.9705
2025-10-07 03:00: 0.9725
2025-10-07 03:00: 0.0275
2025-10-07 04:00: 0.9775
2025-10-07 04:00: 0.0225
Trade Summary: Total trades: 5, Buy volume: 43.92, Sell volume: 0.00, Average price: 0.9902, Price range: 0.9900 - 0.9910
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 623545
Question: Will Gérald Darmanin be the next Prime Minister of France?
Volume: 37189.806247
Price History:
2025-10-07 05:00: 0.0050
2025-10-07 05:00: 0.9950
2025-10-07 06:00: 0.9945
2025-10-07 06:00: 0.0055
2025-10-07 07:00: 0.9950
2025-10-07 07:00: 0.0050
2025-10-07 08:00: 0.9950
2025-10-07 08:00: 0.0050
2025-10-07 09:00: 0.9950
2025-10-07 09:00: 0.0050
2025-10-07 10:00: 0.9950
2025-10-07 10:00: 0.0050
2025-10-07 11:00: 0.0050
2025-10-07 11:00: 0.9950
2025-10-07 12:00: 0.9950
Trade Summary: Total trades: 26, Buy volume: 271.16, Sell volume: 52.04, Average price: 0.7295, Price range: 0.0030 - 0.9980
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 623545
Question: Will Gérald Darmanin be the next Prime Minister of France?
Volume: 37189.806247
Price History:
2025-10-07 12:00: 0.0050
2025-10-07 13:00: 0.0035
2025-10-07 13:00: 0.9965
2025-10-07 14:00: 0.9965
2025-10-07 14:00: 0.0035
2025-10-07 15:00: 0.0060
2025-10-07 15:00: 0.9940
2025-10-07 16:00: 0.9945
2025-10-07 16:00: 0.0055
2025-10-07 17:00: 0.9940
2025-10-07 17:00: 0.0060
2025-10-07 18:00: 0.9940
2025-10-07 18:00: 0.0060
2025-10-07 19:00: 0.9950
2025-10-07 19:00: 0.0050
Trade Summary: Total trades: 27, Buy volume: 1004.16, Sell volume: 88.91, Average price: 0.6289, Price range: 0.0030 - 0.9970
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 623545
Question: Will Gérald Darmanin be the next Prime Minister of France?
Volume: 37189.806247
Price History:
2025-10-07 20:00: 0.9950
2025-10-07 20:00: 0.0050
2025-10-07 21:00: 0.0050
2025-10-07 21:00: 0.9950
2025-10-07 22:00: 0.0050
2025-10-07 22:00: 0.9950
2025-10-07 23:00: 0.9950
2025-10-07 23:00: 0.0050
2025-10-08 00:00: 0.9950
2025-10-08 00:00: 0.0050
2025-10-08 01:00: 0.9950
2025-10-08 01:00: 0.0050
2025-10-08 02:00: 0.9950
2025-10-08 02:00: 0.0050
2025-10-08 03:00: 0.9950
Trade Summary: Total trades: 340, Buy volume: 19910.15, Sell volume: 17279.66, Average price: 0.6961, Price range: 0.0010 - 0.9990
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike, wash_trading

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 623545
Question: Will Gérald Darmanin be the next Prime Minister of France?
Volume: 37189.806247
Price History:
2025-10-08 03:00: 0.0050
2025-10-08 04:00: 0.9965
2025-10-08 04:00: 0.0035
2025-10-08 05:00: 0.9965
2025-10-08 05:00: 0.0035
2025-10-08 06:00: 0.9965
2025-10-08 06:00: 0.0035
2025-10-08 07:00: 0.9965
2025-10-08 07:00: 0.0035
2025-10-08 08:00: 0.9960
2025-10-08 08:00: 0.0040
2025-10-08 09:00: 0.9960
2025-10-08 09:00: 0.0040
2025-10-08 10:00: 0.0035
2025-10-08 10:00: 0.9965
Trade Summary: Total trades: 18, Buy volume: 777.84, Sell volume: 508.25, Average price: 0.7759, Price range: 0.0030 - 0.9970
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike, wash_trading

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 623545
Question: Will Gérald Darmanin be the next Prime Minister of France?
Volume: 37189.806247
Price History:
2025-10-08 11:00: 0.0035
2025-10-08 11:00: 0.9965
2025-10-08 12:00: 0.0040
2025-10-08 12:00: 0.9960
2025-10-08 13:00: 0.0035
2025-10-08 13:00: 0.9965
2025-10-08 14:00: 0.0035
2025-10-08 14:00: 0.9965
2025-10-08 15:00: 0.0035
2025-10-08 15:00: 0.9965
2025-10-08 16:00: 0.0035
2025-10-08 16:00: 0.9965
2025-10-08 17:00: 0.0035
2025-10-08 17:00: 0.9965
2025-10-08 18:00: 0.0035
Trade Summary: Total trades: 38, Buy volume: 3708.62, Sell volume: 3011.61, Average price: 0.8660, Price range: 0.0030 - 0.9970
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike, wash_trading

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 623545
Question: Will Gérald Darmanin be the next Prime Minister of France?
Volume: 37189.806247
Price History:
2025-10-08 18:00: 0.9965
2025-10-08 19:00: 0.0035
2025-10-08 19:00: 0.9965
2025-10-08 20:00: 0.0035
2025-10-08 20:00: 0.9965
2025-10-08 21:00: 0.0035
2025-10-08 21:00: 0.9965
2025-10-08 22:00: 0.0035
2025-10-08 22:00: 0.9965
2025-10-08 23:00: 0.0035
2025-10-08 23:00: 0.9965
2025-10-09 00:00: 0.0035
2025-10-09 00:00: 0.9965
2025-10-09 01:00: 0.0035
2025-10-09 01:00: 0.9965
Trade Summary: Total trades: 25, Buy volume: 2349.26, Sell volume: 1520.18, Average price: 0.7982, Price range: 0.0030 - 0.9970
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike, wash_trading

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 623545
Question: Will Gérald Darmanin be the next Prime Minister of France?
Volume: 37189.806247
Price History:
2025-10-09 02:00: 0.9965
2025-10-09 02:00: 0.0035
2025-10-09 03:00: 0.0035
2025-10-09 03:00: 0.9965
2025-10-09 04:00: 0.0080
2025-10-09 04:00: 0.9920
2025-10-09 05:00: 0.0080
2025-10-09 05:00: 0.9920
2025-10-09 06:00: 0.0080
2025-10-09 06:00: 0.9920
2025-10-09 07:00: 0.0075
2025-10-09 07:00: 0.9925
2025-10-09 08:00: 0.0080
2025-10-09 08:00: 0.9920
2025-10-09 09:00: 0.0075
Trade Summary: Total trades: 16, Buy volume: 1600.03, Sell volume: 9.49, Average price: 0.8104, Price range: 0.0040 - 0.9970
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 623545
Question: Will Gérald Darmanin be the next Prime Minister of France?
Volume: 37189.806247
Price History:
2025-10-09 09:00: 0.9925
2025-10-09 10:00: 0.0090
2025-10-09 10:00: 0.9910
2025-10-09 11:00: 0.9910
2025-10-09 11:00: 0.0090
2025-10-09 12:00: 0.0085
2025-10-09 12:00: 0.9915
2025-10-09 13:00: 0.0085
2025-10-09 13:00: 0.9915
2025-10-09 14:00: 0.0075
2025-10-09 14:00: 0.9925
2025-10-09 15:00: 0.0080
2025-10-09 15:00: 0.9920
2025-10-09 16:00: 0.0080
2025-10-09 16:00: 0.9920
Trade Summary: Total trades: 27, Buy volume: 583.07, Sell volume: 111.64, Average price: 0.7391, Price range: 0.0030 - 0.9970
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 623545
Question: Will Gérald Darmanin be the next Prime Minister of France?
Volume: 37189.806247
Price History:
2025-10-09 17:00: 0.0075
2025-10-09 17:00: 0.9925
2025-10-09 18:00: 0.0080
2025-10-09 18:00: 0.9920
2025-10-09 19:00: 0.0080
2025-10-09 19:00: 0.9920
2025-10-09 20:00: 0.0065
2025-10-09 20:00: 0.9935
2025-10-09 21:00: 0.0070
2025-10-09 21:00: 0.9930
2025-10-09 22:00: 0.0070
2025-10-09 22:00: 0.9930
2025-10-09 23:00: 0.0070
2025-10-09 23:00: 0.9930
2025-10-10 00:00: 0.0075
Trade Summary: Total trades: 5, Buy volume: 20.00, Sell volume: 56.07, Average price: 0.2024, Price range: 0.0040 - 0.9960
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 623545
Question: Will Gérald Darmanin be the next Prime Minister of France?
Volume: 37189.806247
Price History:
2025-10-10 00:00: 0.9925
2025-10-10 01:00: 0.0075
2025-10-10 01:00: 0.9925
2025-10-10 02:00: 0.0070
2025-10-10 02:00: 0.9930
2025-10-10 03:00: 0.0070
2025-10-10 03:00: 0.9930
2025-10-10 04:00: 0.0035
2025-10-10 04:00: 0.9965
2025-10-10 05:00: 0.9965
2025-10-10 05:00: 0.0035
2025-10-10 06:00: 0.0035
2025-10-10 06:00: 0.9965
2025-10-10 07:00: 0.9965
2025-10-10 07:00: 0.0035
Trade Summary: Total trades: 28, Buy volume: 321.90, Sell volume: 62.19, Average price: 0.9259, Price range: 0.0030 - 0.9970
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike, wash_trading

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 623545
Question: Will Gérald Darmanin be the next Prime Minister of France?
Volume: 37189.806247
Price History:
2025-10-10 08:00: 0.0035
2025-10-10 08:00: 0.9965
2025-10-10 09:00: 0.0030
2025-10-10 09:00: 0.9970
2025-10-10 10:00: 0.9975
2025-10-10 10:00: 0.0025
2025-10-10 11:00: 0.9975
2025-10-10 11:00: 0.0025
2025-10-10 12:00: 0.9975
2025-10-10 12:00: 0.0025
2025-10-10 13:00: 0.9970
2025-10-10 13:00: 0.0030
2025-10-10 14:00: 0.9970
2025-10-10 14:00: 0.0030
2025-10-10 15:00: 0.0030
Trade Summary: Total trades: 51, Buy volume: 1436.04, Sell volume: 849.52, Average price: 0.7442, Price range: 0.0010 - 0.9990
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike, wash_trading

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 520730
Question: Will Ric Grenell be Trump’s Director of National Intelligence?
Volume: 11854.102084
Price History:
2025-01-28 17:00: 0.5000
2025-01-28 17:00: 0.5000
2025-01-28 18:00: 0.2450
2025-01-28 18:00: 0.7550
2025-01-28 19:00: 0.0205
2025-01-28 19:00: 0.9795
2025-01-28 20:00: 0.0205
2025-01-28 20:00: 0.9795
2025-01-28 21:00: 0.0205
2025-01-28 21:00: 0.9795
2025-01-28 22:00: 0.0200
2025-01-28 22:00: 0.9800
2025-01-28 23:00: 0.0200
2025-01-28 23:00: 0.9800
2025-01-29 00:00: 0.0200
2025-01-29 00:00: 0.9800
2025-01-29 01:00: 0.0200
2025-01-29 01:00: 0.9800
2025-01-29 02:00: 0.0200
2025-01-29 02:00: 0.9800
2025-01-29 03:00: 0.0200
2025-01-29 03:00: 0.9800
2025-01-29 04:00: 0.0195
2025-01-29 04:00: 0.9805
2025-01-29 05:00: 0.0195
2025-01-29 05:00: 0.9805
2025-01-29 06:00: 0.0195
2025-01-29 06:00: 0.9805
2025-01-29 07:00: 0.0190
2025-01-29 07:00: 0.9810
Trade Summary: No trades available
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 520730
Question: Will Ric Grenell be Trump’s Director of National Intelligence?
Volume: 11854.102084
Price History:
2025-01-29 20:00: 0.8680
2025-01-29 21:00: 0.1330
2025-01-29 21:00: 0.8670
2025-01-29 22:00: 0.1240
2025-01-29 22:00: 0.8760
2025-01-29 23:00: 0.1270
2025-01-29 23:00: 0.8730
2025-01-30 00:00: 0.1280
2025-01-30 00:00: 0.8720
2025-01-30 01:00: 0.1250
2025-01-30 01:00: 0.8750
2025-01-30 02:00: 0.1330
2025-01-30 02:00: 0.8670
2025-01-30 03:00: 0.1330
2025-01-30 03:00: 0.8670
2025-01-30 04:00: 0.1255
2025-01-30 04:00: 0.8745
2025-01-30 05:00: 0.1185
2025-01-30 05:00: 0.8815
2025-01-30 06:00: 0.1180
2025-01-30 06:00: 0.8820
2025-01-30 07:00: 0.1140
2025-01-30 07:00: 0.8860
2025-01-30 08:00: 0.1155
2025-01-30 08:00: 0.8845
2025-01-30 09:00: 0.1125
2025-01-30 09:00: 0.8875
2025-01-30 10:00: 0.1140
2025-01-30 10:00: 0.8860
2025-01-30 11:00: 0.1135
Trade Summary: No trades available
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 520730
Question: Will Ric Grenell be Trump’s Director of National Intelligence?
Volume: 11854.102084
Price History:
2025-01-31 00:00: 0.0660
2025-01-31 00:00: 0.9340
2025-01-31 01:00: 0.0690
2025-01-31 01:00: 0.9310
2025-01-31 02:00: 0.1595
2025-01-31 02:00: 0.8405
2025-01-31 03:00: 0.1605
2025-01-31 03:00: 0.8395
2025-01-31 04:00: 0.1445
2025-01-31 04:00: 0.8555
2025-01-31 05:00: 0.1520
2025-01-31 05:00: 0.8480
2025-01-31 06:00: 0.1500
2025-01-31 06:00: 0.8500
2025-01-31 07:00: 0.1645
2025-01-31 07:00: 0.8355
2025-01-31 08:00: 0.1565
2025-01-31 08:00: 0.8435
2025-01-31 09:00: 0.1535
2025-01-31 09:00: 0.8465
2025-01-31 10:00: 0.1320
2025-01-31 10:00: 0.8680
2025-01-31 11:00: 0.1365
2025-01-31 11:00: 0.8635
2025-01-31 12:00: 0.1115
2025-01-31 12:00: 0.8885
2025-01-31 13:00: 0.1290
2025-01-31 13:00: 0.8710
2025-01-31 14:00: 0.1265
2025-01-31 14:00: 0.8735
Trade Summary: No trades available
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 520730
Question: Will Ric Grenell be Trump’s Director of National Intelligence?
Volume: 11854.102084
Price History:
2025-02-01 03:00: 0.8660
2025-02-01 04:00: 0.1430
2025-02-01 04:00: 0.8570
2025-02-01 05:00: 0.1340
2025-02-01 05:00: 0.8660
2025-02-01 06:00: 0.1355
2025-02-01 06:00: 0.8645
2025-02-01 07:00: 0.1390
2025-02-01 07:00: 0.8610
2025-02-01 08:00: 0.1395
2025-02-01 08:00: 0.8605
2025-02-01 09:00: 0.1410
2025-02-01 09:00: 0.8590
2025-02-01 10:00: 0.1365
2025-02-01 10:00: 0.8635
2025-02-01 11:00: 0.1325
2025-02-01 11:00: 0.8675
2025-02-01 12:00: 0.1300
2025-02-01 12:00: 0.8700
2025-02-01 13:00: 0.1330
2025-02-01 13:00: 0.8670
2025-02-01 14:00: 0.1285
2025-02-01 14:00: 0.8715
2025-02-01 15:00: 0.1285
2025-02-01 15:00: 0.8715
2025-02-01 16:00: 0.1285
2025-02-01 16:00: 0.8715
2025-02-01 17:00: 0.1295
2025-02-01 17:00: 0.8705
2025-02-01 18:00: 0.1300
Trade Summary: No trades available
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 520730
Question: Will Ric Grenell be Trump’s Director of National Intelligence?
Volume: 11854.102084
Price History:
2025-02-02 07:00: 0.0945
2025-02-02 07:00: 0.9055
2025-02-02 08:00: 0.0950
2025-02-02 08:00: 0.9050
2025-02-02 09:00: 0.0945
2025-02-02 09:00: 0.9055
2025-02-02 10:00: 0.0945
2025-02-02 10:00: 0.9055
2025-02-02 11:00: 0.0985
2025-02-02 11:00: 0.9015
2025-02-02 12:00: 0.0985
2025-02-02 12:00: 0.9015
2025-02-02 13:00: 0.0990
2025-02-02 13:00: 0.9010
2025-02-02 14:00: 0.0980
2025-02-02 14:00: 0.9020
2025-02-02 15:00: 0.0610
2025-02-02 15:00: 0.9390
2025-02-02 16:00: 0.0665
2025-02-02 16:00: 0.9335
2025-02-02 17:00: 0.0690
2025-02-02 17:00: 0.9310
2025-02-02 18:00: 0.0690
2025-02-02 18:00: 0.9310
2025-02-02 19:00: 0.0690
2025-02-02 19:00: 0.9310
2025-02-02 20:00: 0.0720
2025-02-02 20:00: 0.9280
2025-02-02 21:00: 0.0665
2025-02-02 21:00: 0.9335
Trade Summary: No trades available
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 520730
Question: Will Ric Grenell be Trump’s Director of National Intelligence?
Volume: 11854.102084
Price History:
2025-02-03 10:00: 0.9385
2025-02-03 11:00: 0.0615
2025-02-03 11:00: 0.9385
2025-02-03 12:00: 0.0630
2025-02-03 12:00: 0.9370
2025-02-03 13:00: 0.0630
2025-02-03 13:00: 0.9370
2025-02-03 14:00: 0.0575
2025-02-03 14:00: 0.9425
2025-02-03 15:00: 0.0650
2025-02-03 15:00: 0.9350
2025-02-03 16:00: 0.0650
2025-02-03 16:00: 0.9350
2025-02-03 17:00: 0.0015
2025-02-03 17:00: 0.9985
2025-02-03 18:00: 0.0030
2025-02-03 18:00: 0.9970
2025-02-03 19:00: 0.0035
2025-02-03 19:00: 0.9965
2025-02-03 20:00: 0.0030
2025-02-03 20:00: 0.9970
2025-02-03 21:00: 0.0030
2025-02-03 21:00: 0.9970
2025-02-03 22:00: 0.0030
2025-02-03 22:00: 0.9970
2025-02-03 23:00: 0.0030
2025-02-03 23:00: 0.9970
2025-02-04 00:00: 0.0030
2025-02-04 00:00: 0.9970
2025-02-04 01:00: 0.0030
Trade Summary: No trades available
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 520730
Question: Will Ric Grenell be Trump’s Director of National Intelligence?
Volume: 11854.102084
Price History:
2025-02-04 14:00: 0.0060
2025-02-04 14:00: 0.9940
2025-02-04 15:00: 0.0055
2025-02-04 15:00: 0.9945
2025-02-04 16:00: 0.0055
2025-02-04 16:00: 0.9945
2025-02-04 17:00: 0.0055
2025-02-04 17:00: 0.9945
2025-02-04 18:00: 0.0055
2025-02-04 18:00: 0.9945
2025-02-04 19:00: 0.0055
2025-02-04 19:00: 0.9945
2025-02-04 20:00: 0.0055
2025-02-04 20:00: 0.9945
2025-02-04 21:00: 0.0055
2025-02-04 21:00: 0.9945
2025-02-04 22:00: 0.0055
2025-02-04 22:00: 0.9945
2025-02-04 23:00: 0.0055
2025-02-04 23:00: 0.9945
2025-02-05 00:00: 0.0055
2025-02-05 00:00: 0.9945
2025-02-05 01:00: 0.0055
2025-02-05 01:00: 0.9945
2025-02-05 02:00: 0.0055
2025-02-05 02:00: 0.9945
2025-02-05 03:00: 0.0030
2025-02-05 03:00: 0.9970
2025-02-05 04:00: 0.0030
2025-02-05 04:00: 0.9970
Trade Summary: No trades available
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 520730
Question: Will Ric Grenell be Trump’s Director of National Intelligence?
Volume: 11854.102084
Price History:
2025-02-05 17:00: 0.9980
2025-02-05 18:00: 0.0025
2025-02-05 18:00: 0.9975
2025-02-05 19:00: 0.0020
2025-02-05 19:00: 0.9980
2025-02-05 20:00: 0.0020
2025-02-05 20:00: 0.9980
2025-02-05 21:00: 0.0020
2025-02-05 21:00: 0.9980
2025-02-05 22:00: 0.0025
2025-02-05 22:00: 0.9975
2025-02-05 23:00: 0.0020
2025-02-05 23:00: 0.9980
2025-02-06 00:00: 0.0025
2025-02-06 00:00: 0.9975
2025-02-06 01:00: 0.0025
2025-02-06 01:00: 0.9975
2025-02-06 02:00: 0.0020
2025-02-06 02:00: 0.9980
2025-02-06 03:00: 0.0020
2025-02-06 03:00: 0.9980
2025-02-06 04:00: 0.0020
2025-02-06 04:00: 0.9980
2025-02-06 05:00: 0.0025
2025-02-06 05:00: 0.9975
2025-02-06 06:00: 0.0020
2025-02-06 06:00: 0.9980
2025-02-06 07:00: 0.0025
2025-02-06 07:00: 0.9975
2025-02-06 08:00: 0.0025
Trade Summary: No trades available
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 520730
Question: Will Ric Grenell be Trump’s Director of National Intelligence?
Volume: 11854.102084
Price History:
2025-02-06 21:00: 0.0030
2025-02-06 21:00: 0.9970
2025-02-06 22:00: 0.0025
2025-02-06 22:00: 0.9975
2025-02-06 23:00: 0.0025
2025-02-06 23:00: 0.9975
2025-02-07 00:00: 0.0030
2025-02-07 00:00: 0.9970
2025-02-07 01:00: 0.0025
2025-02-07 01:00: 0.9975
2025-02-07 02:00: 0.0030
2025-02-07 02:00: 0.9970
2025-02-07 03:00: 0.0025
2025-02-07 03:00: 0.9975
2025-02-07 04:00: 0.0030
2025-02-07 04:00: 0.9970
2025-02-07 05:00: 0.0030
2025-02-07 05:00: 0.9970
2025-02-07 06:00: 0.0030
2025-02-07 06:00: 0.9970
2025-02-07 07:00: 0.0030
2025-02-07 07:00: 0.9970
2025-02-07 08:00: 0.0030
2025-02-07 08:00: 0.9970
2025-02-07 09:00: 0.0030
2025-02-07 09:00: 0.9970
2025-02-07 10:00: 0.0030
2025-02-07 10:00: 0.9970
2025-02-07 11:00: 0.0030
2025-02-07 11:00: 0.9970
Trade Summary: No trades available
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 520730
Question: Will Ric Grenell be Trump’s Director of National Intelligence?
Volume: 11854.102084
Price History:
2025-02-08 00:00: 0.9985
2025-02-08 01:00: 0.0015
2025-02-08 01:00: 0.9985
2025-02-08 02:00: 0.0015
2025-02-08 02:00: 0.9985
2025-02-08 03:00: 0.0015
2025-02-08 03:00: 0.9985
2025-02-08 04:00: 0.0015
2025-02-08 04:00: 0.9985
2025-02-08 05:00: 0.0015
2025-02-08 05:00: 0.9985
2025-02-08 06:00: 0.0015
2025-02-08 06:00: 0.9985
2025-02-08 07:00: 0.0015
2025-02-08 07:00: 0.9985
2025-02-08 08:00: 0.0015
2025-02-08 08:00: 0.9985
2025-02-08 09:00: 0.0030
2025-02-08 09:00: 0.9970
2025-02-08 10:00: 0.0060
2025-02-08 10:00: 0.9940
2025-02-08 11:00: 0.0070
2025-02-08 11:00: 0.9930
2025-02-08 12:00: 0.0070
2025-02-08 12:00: 0.9930
2025-02-08 13:00: 0.0070
2025-02-08 13:00: 0.9930
2025-02-08 14:00: 0.0060
2025-02-08 14:00: 0.9940
2025-02-08 15:00: 0.0060
Trade Summary: No trades available
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 520730
Question: Will Ric Grenell be Trump’s Director of National Intelligence?
Volume: 11854.102084
Price History:
2025-02-09 04:00: 0.0060
2025-02-09 04:00: 0.9940
2025-02-09 05:00: 0.0060
2025-02-09 05:00: 0.9940
2025-02-09 06:00: 0.0040
2025-02-09 06:00: 0.9960
2025-02-09 07:00: 0.0040
2025-02-09 07:00: 0.9960
2025-02-09 08:00: 0.0040
2025-02-09 08:00: 0.9960
2025-02-09 09:00: 0.0040
2025-02-09 09:00: 0.9960
2025-02-09 10:00: 0.0040
2025-02-09 10:00: 0.9960
2025-02-09 11:00: 0.0020
2025-02-09 11:00: 0.9980
2025-02-09 12:00: 0.0025
2025-02-09 12:00: 0.9975
2025-02-09 13:00: 0.0025
2025-02-09 13:00: 0.9975
2025-02-09 14:00: 0.0025
2025-02-09 14:00: 0.9975
2025-02-09 15:00: 0.0030
2025-02-09 15:00: 0.9970
2025-02-09 16:00: 0.0030
2025-02-09 16:00: 0.9970
2025-02-09 17:00: 0.0030
2025-02-09 17:00: 0.9970
2025-02-09 18:00: 0.0030
2025-02-09 18:00: 0.9970
Trade Summary: No trades available
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 520730
Question: Will Ric Grenell be Trump’s Director of National Intelligence?
Volume: 11854.102084
Price History:
2025-02-10 07:00: 0.9970
2025-02-10 08:00: 0.0030
2025-02-10 08:00: 0.9970
2025-02-10 09:00: 0.0030
2025-02-10 09:00: 0.9970
2025-02-10 10:00: 0.0030
2025-02-10 10:00: 0.9970
2025-02-10 11:00: 0.0030
2025-02-10 11:00: 0.9970
2025-02-10 12:00: 0.0030
2025-02-10 12:00: 0.9970
2025-02-10 13:00: 0.0015
2025-02-10 13:00: 0.9985
2025-02-10 14:00: 0.0015
2025-02-10 14:00: 0.9985
2025-02-10 15:00: 0.0030
2025-02-10 15:00: 0.9970
2025-02-10 16:00: 0.0025
2025-02-10 16:00: 0.9975
2025-02-10 17:00: 0.0025
2025-02-10 17:00: 0.9975
2025-02-10 18:00: 0.0025
2025-02-10 18:00: 0.9975
2025-02-10 19:00: 0.0010
2025-02-10 19:00: 0.9990
2025-02-10 20:00: 0.0010
2025-02-10 20:00: 0.9990
2025-02-10 21:00: 0.0010
2025-02-10 21:00: 0.9990
2025-02-10 22:00: 0.0010
Trade Summary: No trades available
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 520730
Question: Will Ric Grenell be Trump’s Director of National Intelligence?
Volume: 11854.102084
Price History:
2025-02-11 11:00: 0.0010
2025-02-11 11:00: 0.9990
2025-02-11 12:00: 0.0010
2025-02-11 12:00: 0.9990
2025-02-11 13:00: 0.0010
2025-02-11 13:00: 0.9990
2025-02-11 14:00: 0.0010
2025-02-11 14:00: 0.9990
2025-02-11 15:00: 0.0010
2025-02-11 15:00: 0.9990
2025-02-11 16:00: 0.0010
2025-02-11 16:00: 0.9990
2025-02-11 17:00: 0.0010
2025-02-11 17:00: 0.9990
2025-02-11 18:00: 0.0010
2025-02-11 18:00: 0.9990
2025-02-11 19:00: 0.0010
2025-02-11 19:00: 0.9990
2025-02-11 20:00: 0.0010
2025-02-11 20:00: 0.9990
2025-02-11 21:00: 0.0010
2025-02-11 21:00: 0.9990
2025-02-11 22:00: 0.0010
2025-02-11 22:00: 0.9990
2025-02-11 23:00: 0.0010
2025-02-11 23:00: 0.9990
2025-02-12 00:00: 0.0010
2025-02-12 00:00: 0.9990
2025-02-12 01:00: 0.0010
2025-02-12 01:00: 0.9990
Trade Summary: No trades available
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 520732
Question: Will Stephen Miller be Trump’s Director of National Intelligence?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 161752.542995
Price History:
2025-01-28 17:00: 0.5000
2025-01-28 17:00: 0.5000
2025-01-28 18:00: 0.2450
2025-01-28 18:00: 0.7550
2025-01-28 19:00: 0.0205
2025-01-28 19:00: 0.9795
2025-01-28 20:00: 0.0205
2025-01-28 20:00: 0.9795
2025-01-28 21:00: 0.0205
2025-01-28 21:00: 0.9795
2025-01-28 22:00: 0.0200
2025-01-28 22:00: 0.9800
2025-01-28 23:00: 0.0200
2025-01-28 23:00: 0.9800
2025-01-29 00:00: 0.0200
2025-01-29 00:00: 0.9800
2025-01-29 01:00: 0.0200
2025-01-29 01:00: 0.9800
2025-01-29 02:00: 0.0200
2025-01-29 02:00: 0.9800
2025-01-29 03:00: 0.0200
2025-01-29 03:00: 0.9800
2025-01-29 04:00: 0.0185
2025-01-29 04:00: 0.9815
2025-01-29 05:00: 0.0190
2025-01-29 05:00: 0.9810
2025-01-29 06:00: 0.0190
2025-01-29 06:00: 0.9810
2025-01-29 07:00: 0.0185
2025-01-29 07:00: 0.9815
2025-01-29 08:00: 0.0185
2025-01-29 08:00: 0.9815
2025-01-29 09:00: 0.0185
2025-01-29 09:00: 0.9815
2025-01-29 10:00: 0.0180
2025-01-29 10:00: 0.9820
2025-01-29 11:00: 0.0195
2025-01-29 11:00: 0.9805
2025-01-29 12:00: 0.0190
2025-01-29 12:00: 0.9810
2025-01-29 13:00: 0.0195
2025-01-29 13:00: 0.9805
2025-01-29 14:00: 0.0185
2025-01-29 14:00: 0.9815
2025-01-29 15:00: 0.0205
2025-01-29 15:00: 0.9795
2025-01-29 16:00: 0.0205
2025-01-29 16:00: 0.9795
2025-01-29 17:00: 0.0200
2025-01-29 17:00: 0.9800
Trade Summary: No trades available

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 520732
Question: Will Stephen Miller be Trump’s Director of National Intelligence?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 161752.542995
Price History:
2025-01-29 20:00: 0.9795
2025-01-29 21:00: 0.0200
2025-01-29 21:00: 0.9800
2025-01-29 22:00: 0.0195
2025-01-29 22:00: 0.9805
2025-01-29 23:00: 0.0200
2025-01-29 23:00: 0.9800
2025-01-30 00:00: 0.0200
2025-01-30 00:00: 0.9800
2025-01-30 01:00: 0.0205
2025-01-30 01:00: 0.9795
2025-01-30 02:00: 0.0200
2025-01-30 02:00: 0.9800
2025-01-30 03:00: 0.0200
2025-01-30 03:00: 0.9800
2025-01-30 04:00: 0.0205
2025-01-30 04:00: 0.9795
2025-01-30 05:00: 0.0200
2025-01-30 05:00: 0.9800
2025-01-30 06:00: 0.0205
2025-01-30 06:00: 0.9795
2025-01-30 07:00: 0.0205
2025-01-30 07:00: 0.9795
2025-01-30 08:00: 0.0205
2025-01-30 08:00: 0.9795
2025-01-30 09:00: 0.0195
2025-01-30 09:00: 0.9805
2025-01-30 10:00: 0.0200
2025-01-30 10:00: 0.9800
2025-01-30 11:00: 0.0200
2025-01-30 11:00: 0.9800
2025-01-30 12:00: 0.0195
2025-01-30 12:00: 0.9805
2025-01-30 13:00: 0.0200
2025-01-30 13:00: 0.9800
2025-01-30 14:00: 0.0195
2025-01-30 14:00: 0.9805
2025-01-30 15:00: 0.0200
2025-01-30 15:00: 0.9800
2025-01-30 16:00: 0.0205
2025-01-30 16:00: 0.9795
2025-01-30 17:00: 0.0200
2025-01-30 17:00: 0.9800
2025-01-30 18:00: 0.0205
2025-01-30 18:00: 0.9795
2025-01-30 19:00: 0.0200
2025-01-30 19:00: 0.9800
2025-01-30 20:00: 0.0200
2025-01-30 20:00: 0.9800
2025-01-30 21:00: 0.0220
Trade Summary: No trades available

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 520732
Question: Will Stephen Miller be Trump’s Director of National Intelligence?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 161752.542995
Price History:
2025-01-31 00:00: 0.0225
2025-01-31 00:00: 0.9775
2025-01-31 01:00: 0.0210
2025-01-31 01:00: 0.9790
2025-01-31 02:00: 0.0230
2025-01-31 02:00: 0.9770
2025-01-31 03:00: 0.0245
2025-01-31 03:00: 0.9755
2025-01-31 04:00: 0.0270
2025-01-31 04:00: 0.9730
2025-01-31 05:00: 0.0225
2025-01-31 05:00: 0.9775
2025-01-31 06:00: 0.0250
2025-01-31 06:00: 0.9750
2025-01-31 07:00: 0.0195
2025-01-31 07:00: 0.9805
2025-01-31 08:00: 0.0205
2025-01-31 08:00: 0.9795
2025-01-31 09:00: 0.0220
2025-01-31 09:00: 0.9780
2025-01-31 10:00: 0.0235
2025-01-31 10:00: 0.9765
2025-01-31 11:00: 0.0200
2025-01-31 11:00: 0.9800
2025-01-31 12:00: 0.0225
2025-01-31 12:00: 0.9775
2025-01-31 13:00: 0.0245
2025-01-31 13:00: 0.9755
2025-01-31 14:00: 0.0205
2025-01-31 14:00: 0.9795
2025-01-31 15:00: 0.0225
2025-01-31 15:00: 0.9775
2025-01-31 16:00: 0.0240
2025-01-31 16:00: 0.9760
2025-01-31 17:00: 0.0190
2025-01-31 17:00: 0.9810
2025-01-31 18:00: 0.0210
2025-01-31 18:00: 0.9790
2025-01-31 19:00: 0.0235
2025-01-31 19:00: 0.9765
2025-01-31 20:00: 0.0205
2025-01-31 20:00: 0.9795
2025-01-31 21:00: 0.0165
2025-01-31 21:00: 0.9835
2025-01-31 22:00: 0.0170
2025-01-31 22:00: 0.9830
2025-01-31 23:00: 0.0185
2025-01-31 23:00: 0.9815
2025-02-01 00:00: 0.0200
2025-02-01 00:00: 0.9800
Trade Summary: No trades available

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 520732
Question: Will Stephen Miller be Trump’s Director of National Intelligence?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 161752.542995
Price History:
2025-02-01 03:00: 0.9835
2025-02-01 04:00: 0.0170
2025-02-01 04:00: 0.9830
2025-02-01 05:00: 0.0135
2025-02-01 05:00: 0.9865
2025-02-01 06:00: 0.0105
2025-02-01 06:00: 0.9895
2025-02-01 07:00: 0.0080
2025-02-01 07:00: 0.9920
2025-02-01 08:00: 0.0075
2025-02-01 08:00: 0.9925
2025-02-01 09:00: 0.0075
2025-02-01 09:00: 0.9925
2025-02-01 10:00: 0.0075
2025-02-01 10:00: 0.9925
2025-02-01 11:00: 0.0075
2025-02-01 11:00: 0.9925
2025-02-01 12:00: 0.0070
2025-02-01 12:00: 0.9930
2025-02-01 13:00: 0.0070
2025-02-01 13:00: 0.9930
2025-02-01 14:00: 0.0070
2025-02-01 14:00: 0.9930
2025-02-01 15:00: 0.0070
2025-02-01 15:00: 0.9930
2025-02-01 16:00: 0.0065
2025-02-01 16:00: 0.9935
2025-02-01 17:00: 0.0065
2025-02-01 17:00: 0.9935
2025-02-01 18:00: 0.0065
2025-02-01 18:00: 0.9935
2025-02-01 19:00: 0.0070
2025-02-01 19:00: 0.9930
2025-02-01 20:00: 0.0065
2025-02-01 20:00: 0.9935
2025-02-01 21:00: 0.0065
2025-02-01 21:00: 0.9935
2025-02-01 22:00: 0.0070
2025-02-01 22:00: 0.9930
2025-02-01 23:00: 0.0065
2025-02-01 23:00: 0.9935
2025-02-02 00:00: 0.0070
2025-02-02 00:00: 0.9930
2025-02-02 01:00: 0.0070
2025-02-02 01:00: 0.9930
2025-02-02 02:00: 0.0065
2025-02-02 02:00: 0.9935
2025-02-02 03:00: 0.0070
2025-02-02 03:00: 0.9930
2025-02-02 04:00: 0.0065
Trade Summary: No trades available

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 520732
Question: Will Stephen Miller be Trump’s Director of National Intelligence?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 161752.542995
Price History:
2025-02-02 07:00: 0.0065
2025-02-02 07:00: 0.9935
2025-02-02 08:00: 0.0065
2025-02-02 08:00: 0.9935
2025-02-02 09:00: 0.0065
2025-02-02 09:00: 0.9935
2025-02-02 10:00: 0.0070
2025-02-02 10:00: 0.9930
2025-02-02 11:00: 0.0065
2025-02-02 11:00: 0.9935
2025-02-02 12:00: 0.0070
2025-02-02 12:00: 0.9930
2025-02-02 13:00: 0.0075
2025-02-02 13:00: 0.9925
2025-02-02 14:00: 0.0075
2025-02-02 14:00: 0.9925
2025-02-02 15:00: 0.0075
2025-02-02 15:00: 0.9925
2025-02-02 16:00: 0.0050
2025-02-02 16:00: 0.9950
2025-02-02 17:00: 0.0050
2025-02-02 17:00: 0.9950
2025-02-02 18:00: 0.0050
2025-02-02 18:00: 0.9950
2025-02-02 19:00: 0.0050
2025-02-02 19:00: 0.9950
2025-02-02 20:00: 0.0050
2025-02-02 20:00: 0.9950
2025-02-02 21:00: 0.0050
2025-02-02 21:00: 0.9950
2025-02-02 22:00: 0.0050
2025-02-02 22:00: 0.9950
2025-02-02 23:00: 0.0050
2025-02-02 23:00: 0.9950
2025-02-03 00:00: 0.0045
2025-02-03 00:00: 0.9955
2025-02-03 01:00: 0.0045
2025-02-03 01:00: 0.9955
2025-02-03 02:00: 0.0045
2025-02-03 02:00: 0.9955
2025-02-03 03:00: 0.0045
2025-02-03 03:00: 0.9955
2025-02-03 04:00: 0.0050
2025-02-03 04:00: 0.9950
2025-02-03 05:00: 0.0045
2025-02-03 05:00: 0.9955
2025-02-03 06:00: 0.0050
2025-02-03 06:00: 0.9950
2025-02-03 07:00: 0.0045
2025-02-03 07:00: 0.9955
Trade Summary: No trades available

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 520732
Question: Will Stephen Miller be Trump’s Director of National Intelligence?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 161752.542995
Price History:
2025-02-03 10:00: 0.9955
2025-02-03 11:00: 0.0045
2025-02-03 11:00: 0.9955
2025-02-03 12:00: 0.0045
2025-02-03 12:00: 0.9955
2025-02-03 13:00: 0.0040
2025-02-03 13:00: 0.9960
2025-02-03 14:00: 0.0050
2025-02-03 14:00: 0.9950
2025-02-03 15:00: 0.0050
2025-02-03 15:00: 0.9950
2025-02-03 16:00: 0.0050
2025-02-03 16:00: 0.9950
2025-02-03 17:00: 0.0035
2025-02-03 17:00: 0.9965
2025-02-03 18:00: 0.0030
2025-02-03 18:00: 0.9970
2025-02-03 19:00: 0.0030
2025-02-03 19:00: 0.9970
2025-02-03 20:00: 0.0030
2025-02-03 20:00: 0.9970
2025-02-03 21:00: 0.0025
2025-02-03 21:00: 0.9975
2025-02-03 22:00: 0.0025
2025-02-03 22:00: 0.9975
2025-02-03 23:00: 0.0025
2025-02-03 23:00: 0.9975
2025-02-04 00:00: 0.0020
2025-02-04 00:00: 0.9980
2025-02-04 01:00: 0.0025
2025-02-04 01:00: 0.9975
2025-02-04 02:00: 0.0020
2025-02-04 02:00: 0.9980
2025-02-04 03:00: 0.0020
2025-02-04 03:00: 0.9980
2025-02-04 04:00: 0.0025
2025-02-04 04:00: 0.9975
2025-02-04 05:00: 0.0025
2025-02-04 05:00: 0.9975
2025-02-04 06:00: 0.0020
2025-02-04 06:00: 0.9980
2025-02-04 07:00: 0.0025
2025-02-04 07:00: 0.9975
2025-02-04 08:00: 0.0020
2025-02-04 08:00: 0.9980
2025-02-04 09:00: 0.0025
2025-02-04 09:00: 0.9975
2025-02-04 10:00: 0.0025
2025-02-04 10:00: 0.9975
2025-02-04 11:00: 0.0020
Trade Summary: No trades available

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 520732
Question: Will Stephen Miller be Trump’s Director of National Intelligence?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 161752.542995
Price History:
2025-02-04 14:00: 0.0020
2025-02-04 14:00: 0.9980
2025-02-04 15:00: 0.0020
2025-02-04 15:00: 0.9980
2025-02-04 16:00: 0.0020
2025-02-04 16:00: 0.9980
2025-02-04 17:00: 0.0025
2025-02-04 17:00: 0.9975
2025-02-04 18:00: 0.0020
2025-02-04 18:00: 0.9980
2025-02-04 19:00: 0.0025
2025-02-04 19:00: 0.9975
2025-02-04 20:00: 0.0025
2025-02-04 20:00: 0.9975
2025-02-04 21:00: 0.0025
2025-02-04 21:00: 0.9975
2025-02-04 22:00: 0.0015
2025-02-04 22:00: 0.9985
2025-02-04 23:00: 0.0015
2025-02-04 23:00: 0.9985
2025-02-05 00:00: 0.0015
2025-02-05 00:00: 0.9985
2025-02-05 01:00: 0.0015
2025-02-05 01:00: 0.9985
2025-02-05 02:00: 0.0015
2025-02-05 02:00: 0.9985
2025-02-05 03:00: 0.0015
2025-02-05 03:00: 0.9985
2025-02-05 04:00: 0.0015
2025-02-05 04:00: 0.9985
2025-02-05 05:00: 0.0015
2025-02-05 05:00: 0.9985
2025-02-05 06:00: 0.0015
2025-02-05 06:00: 0.9985
2025-02-05 07:00: 0.0015
2025-02-05 07:00: 0.9985
2025-02-05 08:00: 0.0015
2025-02-05 08:00: 0.9985
2025-02-05 09:00: 0.0015
2025-02-05 09:00: 0.9985
2025-02-05 10:00: 0.0015
2025-02-05 10:00: 0.9985
2025-02-05 11:00: 0.0015
2025-02-05 11:00: 0.9985
2025-02-05 12:00: 0.0015
2025-02-05 12:00: 0.9985
2025-02-05 13:00: 0.0015
2025-02-05 13:00: 0.9985
2025-02-05 14:00: 0.0015
2025-02-05 14:00: 0.9985
Trade Summary: No trades available

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 520732
Question: Will Stephen Miller be Trump’s Director of National Intelligence?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 161752.542995
Price History:
2025-02-05 17:00: 0.9980
2025-02-05 18:00: 0.0020
2025-02-05 18:00: 0.9980
2025-02-05 19:00: 0.0020
2025-02-05 19:00: 0.9980
2025-02-05 20:00: 0.0015
2025-02-05 20:00: 0.9985
2025-02-05 21:00: 0.0015
2025-02-05 21:00: 0.9985
2025-02-05 22:00: 0.0020
2025-02-05 22:00: 0.9980
2025-02-05 23:00: 0.0020
2025-02-05 23:00: 0.9980
2025-02-06 00:00: 0.0020
2025-02-06 00:00: 0.9980
2025-02-06 01:00: 0.0020
2025-02-06 01:00: 0.9980
2025-02-06 02:00: 0.0020
2025-02-06 02:00: 0.9980
2025-02-06 03:00: 0.0020
2025-02-06 03:00: 0.9980
2025-02-06 04:00: 0.0020
2025-02-06 04:00: 0.9980
2025-02-06 05:00: 0.0015
2025-02-06 05:00: 0.9985
2025-02-06 06:00: 0.0020
2025-02-06 06:00: 0.9980
2025-02-06 07:00: 0.0020
2025-02-06 07:00: 0.9980
2025-02-06 08:00: 0.0020
2025-02-06 08:00: 0.9980
2025-02-06 09:00: 0.0020
2025-02-06 09:00: 0.9980
2025-02-06 10:00: 0.0020
2025-02-06 10:00: 0.9980
2025-02-06 11:00: 0.0020
2025-02-06 11:00: 0.9980
2025-02-06 12:00: 0.0025
2025-02-06 12:00: 0.9975
2025-02-06 13:00: 0.0025
2025-02-06 13:00: 0.9975
2025-02-06 14:00: 0.0020
2025-02-06 14:00: 0.9980
2025-02-06 15:00: 0.0025
2025-02-06 15:00: 0.9975
2025-02-06 16:00: 0.0015
2025-02-06 16:00: 0.9985
2025-02-06 17:00: 0.0020
2025-02-06 17:00: 0.9980
2025-02-06 18:00: 0.0020
Trade Summary: No trades available

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 520732
Question: Will Stephen Miller be Trump’s Director of National Intelligence?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 161752.542995
Price History:
2025-02-06 21:00: 0.0025
2025-02-06 21:00: 0.9975
2025-02-06 22:00: 0.0015
2025-02-06 22:00: 0.9985
2025-02-06 23:00: 0.0015
2025-02-06 23:00: 0.9985
2025-02-07 00:00: 0.0025
2025-02-07 00:00: 0.9975
2025-02-07 01:00: 0.0020
2025-02-07 01:00: 0.9980
2025-02-07 02:00: 0.0025
2025-02-07 02:00: 0.9975
2025-02-07 03:00: 0.0025
2025-02-07 03:00: 0.9975
2025-02-07 04:00: 0.0025
2025-02-07 04:00: 0.9975
2025-02-07 05:00: 0.0015
2025-02-07 05:00: 0.9985
2025-02-07 06:00: 0.0020
2025-02-07 06:00: 0.9980
2025-02-07 07:00: 0.0015
2025-02-07 07:00: 0.9985
2025-02-07 08:00: 0.0015
2025-02-07 08:00: 0.9985
2025-02-07 09:00: 0.0020
2025-02-07 09:00: 0.9980
2025-02-07 10:00: 0.0020
2025-02-07 10:00: 0.9980
2025-02-07 11:00: 0.0020
2025-02-07 11:00: 0.9980
2025-02-07 12:00: 0.0015
2025-02-07 12:00: 0.9985
2025-02-07 13:00: 0.0015
2025-02-07 13:00: 0.9985
2025-02-07 14:00: 0.0015
2025-02-07 14:00: 0.9985
2025-02-07 15:00: 0.0015
2025-02-07 15:00: 0.9985
2025-02-07 16:00: 0.0015
2025-02-07 16:00: 0.9985
2025-02-07 17:00: 0.0015
2025-02-07 17:00: 0.9985
2025-02-07 18:00: 0.0015
2025-02-07 18:00: 0.9985
2025-02-07 19:00: 0.0015
2025-02-07 19:00: 0.9985
2025-02-07 20:00: 0.0020
2025-02-07 20:00: 0.9980
2025-02-07 21:00: 0.0020
2025-02-07 21:00: 0.9980
Trade Summary: No trades available

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 520732
Question: Will Stephen Miller be Trump’s Director of National Intelligence?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 161752.542995
Price History:
2025-02-08 00:00: 0.9980
2025-02-08 01:00: 0.0020
2025-02-08 01:00: 0.9980
2025-02-08 02:00: 0.0020
2025-02-08 02:00: 0.9980
2025-02-08 03:00: 0.0020
2025-02-08 03:00: 0.9980
2025-02-08 04:00: 0.0020
2025-02-08 04:00: 0.9980
2025-02-08 05:00: 0.0020
2025-02-08 05:00: 0.9980
2025-02-08 06:00: 0.0020
2025-02-08 06:00: 0.9980
2025-02-08 07:00: 0.0020
2025-02-08 07:00: 0.9980
2025-02-08 08:00: 0.0020
2025-02-08 08:00: 0.9980
2025-02-08 09:00: 0.0020
2025-02-08 09:00: 0.9980
2025-02-08 10:00: 0.0015
2025-02-08 10:00: 0.9985
2025-02-08 11:00: 0.0015
2025-02-08 11:00: 0.9985
2025-02-08 12:00: 0.0015
2025-02-08 12:00: 0.9985
2025-02-08 13:00: 0.0015
2025-02-08 13:00: 0.9985
2025-02-08 14:00: 0.0015
2025-02-08 14:00: 0.9985
2025-02-08 15:00: 0.0015
2025-02-08 15:00: 0.9985
2025-02-08 16:00: 0.0015
2025-02-08 16:00: 0.9985
2025-02-08 17:00: 0.0015
2025-02-08 17:00: 0.9985
2025-02-08 18:00: 0.0015
2025-02-08 18:00: 0.9985
2025-02-08 19:00: 0.0015
2025-02-08 19:00: 0.9985
2025-02-08 20:00: 0.0015
2025-02-08 20:00: 0.9985
2025-02-08 21:00: 0.0015
2025-02-08 21:00: 0.9985
2025-02-08 22:00: 0.0015
2025-02-08 22:00: 0.9985
2025-02-08 23:00: 0.0015
2025-02-08 23:00: 0.9985
2025-02-09 00:00: 0.0015
2025-02-09 00:00: 0.9985
2025-02-09 01:00: 0.0015
Trade Summary: No trades available

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 520732
Question: Will Stephen Miller be Trump’s Director of National Intelligence?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 161752.542995
Price History:
2025-02-09 04:00: 0.0015
2025-02-09 04:00: 0.9985
2025-02-09 05:00: 0.0015
2025-02-09 05:00: 0.9985
2025-02-09 06:00: 0.0015
2025-02-09 06:00: 0.9985
2025-02-09 07:00: 0.0015
2025-02-09 07:00: 0.9985
2025-02-09 08:00: 0.0015
2025-02-09 08:00: 0.9985
2025-02-09 09:00: 0.0015
2025-02-09 09:00: 0.9985
2025-02-09 10:00: 0.0015
2025-02-09 10:00: 0.9985
2025-02-09 11:00: 0.0015
2025-02-09 11:00: 0.9985
2025-02-09 12:00: 0.0015
2025-02-09 12:00: 0.9985
2025-02-09 13:00: 0.0015
2025-02-09 13:00: 0.9985
2025-02-09 14:00: 0.0015
2025-02-09 14:00: 0.9985
2025-02-09 15:00: 0.0015
2025-02-09 15:00: 0.9985
2025-02-09 16:00: 0.0015
2025-02-09 16:00: 0.9985
2025-02-09 17:00: 0.0015
2025-02-09 17:00: 0.9985
2025-02-09 18:00: 0.0015
2025-02-09 18:00: 0.9985
2025-02-09 19:00: 0.0015
2025-02-09 19:00: 0.9985
2025-02-09 20:00: 0.0015
2025-02-09 20:00: 0.9985
2025-02-09 21:00: 0.0015
2025-02-09 21:00: 0.9985
2025-02-09 22:00: 0.0015
2025-02-09 22:00: 0.9985
2025-02-09 23:00: 0.0015
2025-02-09 23:00: 0.9985
2025-02-10 00:00: 0.0015
2025-02-10 00:00: 0.9985
2025-02-10 01:00: 0.0015
2025-02-10 01:00: 0.9985
2025-02-10 02:00: 0.0015
2025-02-10 02:00: 0.9985
2025-02-10 03:00: 0.0015
2025-02-10 03:00: 0.9985
2025-02-10 04:00: 0.0015
2025-02-10 04:00: 0.9985
Trade Summary: No trades available

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 520732
Question: Will Stephen Miller be Trump’s Director of National Intelligence?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 161752.542995
Price History:
2025-02-10 07:00: 0.9985
2025-02-10 08:00: 0.0015
2025-02-10 08:00: 0.9985
2025-02-10 09:00: 0.0015
2025-02-10 09:00: 0.9985
2025-02-10 10:00: 0.0015
2025-02-10 10:00: 0.9985
2025-02-10 11:00: 0.0015
2025-02-10 11:00: 0.9985
2025-02-10 12:00: 0.0015
2025-02-10 12:00: 0.9985
2025-02-10 13:00: 0.0015
2025-02-10 13:00: 0.9985
2025-02-10 14:00: 0.0015
2025-02-10 14:00: 0.9985
2025-02-10 15:00: 0.0015
2025-02-10 15:00: 0.9985
2025-02-10 16:00: 0.0015
2025-02-10 16:00: 0.9985
2025-02-10 17:00: 0.0015
2025-02-10 17:00: 0.9985
2025-02-10 18:00: 0.0015
2025-02-10 18:00: 0.9985
2025-02-10 19:00: 0.0015
2025-02-10 19:00: 0.9985
2025-02-10 20:00: 0.0015
2025-02-10 20:00: 0.9985
2025-02-10 21:00: 0.0015
2025-02-10 21:00: 0.9985
2025-02-10 22:00: 0.0015
2025-02-10 22:00: 0.9985
2025-02-10 23:00: 0.0015
2025-02-10 23:00: 0.9985
2025-02-11 00:00: 0.0015
2025-02-11 00:00: 0.9985
2025-02-11 01:00: 0.0015
2025-02-11 01:00: 0.9985
2025-02-11 02:00: 0.0015
2025-02-11 02:00: 0.9985
2025-02-11 03:00: 0.0015
2025-02-11 03:00: 0.9985
2025-02-11 04:00: 0.0015
2025-02-11 04:00: 0.9985
2025-02-11 05:00: 0.0015
2025-02-11 05:00: 0.9985
2025-02-11 06:00: 0.0015
2025-02-11 06:00: 0.9985
2025-02-11 07:00: 0.0015
2025-02-11 07:00: 0.9985
2025-02-11 08:00: 0.0015
Trade Summary: No trades available

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 520732
Question: Will Stephen Miller be Trump’s Director of National Intelligence?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 161752.542995
Price History:
2025-02-11 11:00: 0.0015
2025-02-11 11:00: 0.9985
2025-02-11 12:00: 0.0015
2025-02-11 12:00: 0.9985
2025-02-11 13:00: 0.0015
2025-02-11 13:00: 0.9985
2025-02-11 14:00: 0.0015
2025-02-11 14:00: 0.9985
2025-02-11 15:00: 0.0015
2025-02-11 15:00: 0.9985
2025-02-11 16:00: 0.0015
2025-02-11 16:00: 0.9985
2025-02-11 17:00: 0.0015
2025-02-11 17:00: 0.9985
2025-02-11 18:00: 0.0015
2025-02-11 18:00: 0.9985
2025-02-11 19:00: 0.0015
2025-02-11 19:00: 0.9985
2025-02-11 20:00: 0.0015
2025-02-11 20:00: 0.9985
2025-02-11 21:00: 0.0015
2025-02-11 21:00: 0.9985
2025-02-11 22:00: 0.0015
2025-02-11 22:00: 0.9985
2025-02-11 23:00: 0.0015
2025-02-11 23:00: 0.9985
2025-02-12 00:00: 0.0015
2025-02-12 00:00: 0.9985
2025-02-12 01:00: 0.0015
2025-02-12 01:00: 0.9985
2025-02-12 02:00: 0.0015
2025-02-12 02:00: 0.9985
2025-02-12 03:00: 0.0015
2025-02-12 03:00: 0.9985
2025-02-12 04:00: 0.0015
2025-02-12 04:00: 0.9985
2025-02-12 05:00: 0.0015
2025-02-12 05:00: 0.9985
2025-02-12 06:00: 0.0010
2025-02-12 06:00: 0.9990
2025-02-12 07:00: 0.0010
2025-02-12 07:00: 0.9990
2025-02-12 08:00: 0.0010
2025-02-12 08:00: 0.9990
2025-02-12 09:00: 0.0010
2025-02-12 09:00: 0.9990
2025-02-12 10:00: 0.0010
2025-02-12 10:00: 0.9990
2025-02-12 11:00: 0.0010
2025-02-12 11:00: 0.9990
Trade Summary: No trades available

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 520732
Question: Will Stephen Miller be Trump’s Director of National Intelligence?
Volume: 161752.542995
Price History:
2025-01-28 17:00: 0.5000
2025-01-28 17:00: 0.5000
2025-01-28 18:00: 0.2450
2025-01-28 18:00: 0.7550
2025-01-28 19:00: 0.0205
2025-01-28 19:00: 0.9795
2025-01-28 20:00: 0.0205
2025-01-28 20:00: 0.9795
2025-01-28 21:00: 0.0205
2025-01-28 21:00: 0.9795
2025-01-28 22:00: 0.0200
2025-01-28 22:00: 0.9800
2025-01-28 23:00: 0.0200
2025-01-28 23:00: 0.9800
2025-01-29 00:00: 0.0200
2025-01-29 00:00: 0.9800
2025-01-29 01:00: 0.0200
2025-01-29 01:00: 0.9800
2025-01-29 02:00: 0.0200
2025-01-29 02:00: 0.9800
2025-01-29 03:00: 0.0200
2025-01-29 03:00: 0.9800
2025-01-29 04:00: 0.0185
2025-01-29 04:00: 0.9815
2025-01-29 05:00: 0.0190
2025-01-29 05:00: 0.9810
2025-01-29 06:00: 0.0190
2025-01-29 06:00: 0.9810
2025-01-29 07:00: 0.0185
2025-01-29 07:00: 0.9815
Trade Summary: No trades available
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 520732
Question: Will Stephen Miller be Trump’s Director of National Intelligence?
Volume: 161752.542995
Price History:
2025-01-29 20:00: 0.9795
2025-01-29 21:00: 0.0200
2025-01-29 21:00: 0.9800
2025-01-29 22:00: 0.0195
2025-01-29 22:00: 0.9805
2025-01-29 23:00: 0.0200
2025-01-29 23:00: 0.9800
2025-01-30 00:00: 0.0200
2025-01-30 00:00: 0.9800
2025-01-30 01:00: 0.0205
2025-01-30 01:00: 0.9795
2025-01-30 02:00: 0.0200
2025-01-30 02:00: 0.9800
2025-01-30 03:00: 0.0200
2025-01-30 03:00: 0.9800
2025-01-30 04:00: 0.0205
2025-01-30 04:00: 0.9795
2025-01-30 05:00: 0.0200
2025-01-30 05:00: 0.9800
2025-01-30 06:00: 0.0205
2025-01-30 06:00: 0.9795
2025-01-30 07:00: 0.0205
2025-01-30 07:00: 0.9795
2025-01-30 08:00: 0.0205
2025-01-30 08:00: 0.9795
2025-01-30 09:00: 0.0195
2025-01-30 09:00: 0.9805
2025-01-30 10:00: 0.0200
2025-01-30 10:00: 0.9800
2025-01-30 11:00: 0.0200
Trade Summary: No trades available
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 520732
Question: Will Stephen Miller be Trump’s Director of National Intelligence?
Volume: 161752.542995
Price History:
2025-01-31 00:00: 0.0225
2025-01-31 00:00: 0.9775
2025-01-31 01:00: 0.0210
2025-01-31 01:00: 0.9790
2025-01-31 02:00: 0.0230
2025-01-31 02:00: 0.9770
2025-01-31 03:00: 0.0245
2025-01-31 03:00: 0.9755
2025-01-31 04:00: 0.0270
2025-01-31 04:00: 0.9730
2025-01-31 05:00: 0.0225
2025-01-31 05:00: 0.9775
2025-01-31 06:00: 0.0250
2025-01-31 06:00: 0.9750
2025-01-31 07:00: 0.0195
2025-01-31 07:00: 0.9805
2025-01-31 08:00: 0.0205
2025-01-31 08:00: 0.9795
2025-01-31 09:00: 0.0220
2025-01-31 09:00: 0.9780
2025-01-31 10:00: 0.0235
2025-01-31 10:00: 0.9765
2025-01-31 11:00: 0.0200
2025-01-31 11:00: 0.9800
2025-01-31 12:00: 0.0225
2025-01-31 12:00: 0.9775
2025-01-31 13:00: 0.0245
2025-01-31 13:00: 0.9755
2025-01-31 14:00: 0.0205
2025-01-31 14:00: 0.9795
Trade Summary: No trades available
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 520732
Question: Will Stephen Miller be Trump’s Director of National Intelligence?
Volume: 161752.542995
Price History:
2025-02-01 03:00: 0.9835
2025-02-01 04:00: 0.0170
2025-02-01 04:00: 0.9830
2025-02-01 05:00: 0.0135
2025-02-01 05:00: 0.9865
2025-02-01 06:00: 0.0105
2025-02-01 06:00: 0.9895
2025-02-01 07:00: 0.0080
2025-02-01 07:00: 0.9920
2025-02-01 08:00: 0.0075
2025-02-01 08:00: 0.9925
2025-02-01 09:00: 0.0075
2025-02-01 09:00: 0.9925
2025-02-01 10:00: 0.0075
2025-02-01 10:00: 0.9925
2025-02-01 11:00: 0.0075
2025-02-01 11:00: 0.9925
2025-02-01 12:00: 0.0070
2025-02-01 12:00: 0.9930
2025-02-01 13:00: 0.0070
2025-02-01 13:00: 0.9930
2025-02-01 14:00: 0.0070
2025-02-01 14:00: 0.9930
2025-02-01 15:00: 0.0070
2025-02-01 15:00: 0.9930
2025-02-01 16:00: 0.0065
2025-02-01 16:00: 0.9935
2025-02-01 17:00: 0.0065
2025-02-01 17:00: 0.9935
2025-02-01 18:00: 0.0065
Trade Summary: No trades available
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 520732
Question: Will Stephen Miller be Trump’s Director of National Intelligence?
Volume: 161752.542995
Price History:
2025-02-02 07:00: 0.0065
2025-02-02 07:00: 0.9935
2025-02-02 08:00: 0.0065
2025-02-02 08:00: 0.9935
2025-02-02 09:00: 0.0065
2025-02-02 09:00: 0.9935
2025-02-02 10:00: 0.0070
2025-02-02 10:00: 0.9930
2025-02-02 11:00: 0.0065
2025-02-02 11:00: 0.9935
2025-02-02 12:00: 0.0070
2025-02-02 12:00: 0.9930
2025-02-02 13:00: 0.0075
2025-02-02 13:00: 0.9925
2025-02-02 14:00: 0.0075
2025-02-02 14:00: 0.9925
2025-02-02 15:00: 0.0075
2025-02-02 15:00: 0.9925
2025-02-02 16:00: 0.0050
2025-02-02 16:00: 0.9950
2025-02-02 17:00: 0.0050
2025-02-02 17:00: 0.9950
2025-02-02 18:00: 0.0050
2025-02-02 18:00: 0.9950
2025-02-02 19:00: 0.0050
2025-02-02 19:00: 0.9950
2025-02-02 20:00: 0.0050
2025-02-02 20:00: 0.9950
2025-02-02 21:00: 0.0050
2025-02-02 21:00: 0.9950
Trade Summary: No trades available
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 520732
Question: Will Stephen Miller be Trump’s Director of National Intelligence?
Volume: 161752.542995
Price History:
2025-02-03 10:00: 0.9955
2025-02-03 11:00: 0.0045
2025-02-03 11:00: 0.9955
2025-02-03 12:00: 0.0045
2025-02-03 12:00: 0.9955
2025-02-03 13:00: 0.0040
2025-02-03 13:00: 0.9960
2025-02-03 14:00: 0.0050
2025-02-03 14:00: 0.9950
2025-02-03 15:00: 0.0050
2025-02-03 15:00: 0.9950
2025-02-03 16:00: 0.0050
2025-02-03 16:00: 0.9950
2025-02-03 17:00: 0.0035
2025-02-03 17:00: 0.9965
2025-02-03 18:00: 0.0030
2025-02-03 18:00: 0.9970
2025-02-03 19:00: 0.0030
2025-02-03 19:00: 0.9970
2025-02-03 20:00: 0.0030
2025-02-03 20:00: 0.9970
2025-02-03 21:00: 0.0025
2025-02-03 21:00: 0.9975
2025-02-03 22:00: 0.0025
2025-02-03 22:00: 0.9975
2025-02-03 23:00: 0.0025
2025-02-03 23:00: 0.9975
2025-02-04 00:00: 0.0020
2025-02-04 00:00: 0.9980
2025-02-04 01:00: 0.0025
Trade Summary: No trades available
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 520732
Question: Will Stephen Miller be Trump’s Director of National Intelligence?
Volume: 161752.542995
Price History:
2025-02-04 14:00: 0.0020
2025-02-04 14:00: 0.9980
2025-02-04 15:00: 0.0020
2025-02-04 15:00: 0.9980
2025-02-04 16:00: 0.0020
2025-02-04 16:00: 0.9980
2025-02-04 17:00: 0.0025
2025-02-04 17:00: 0.9975
2025-02-04 18:00: 0.0020
2025-02-04 18:00: 0.9980
2025-02-04 19:00: 0.0025
2025-02-04 19:00: 0.9975
2025-02-04 20:00: 0.0025
2025-02-04 20:00: 0.9975
2025-02-04 21:00: 0.0025
2025-02-04 21:00: 0.9975
2025-02-04 22:00: 0.0015
2025-02-04 22:00: 0.9985
2025-02-04 23:00: 0.0015
2025-02-04 23:00: 0.9985
2025-02-05 00:00: 0.0015
2025-02-05 00:00: 0.9985
2025-02-05 01:00: 0.0015
2025-02-05 01:00: 0.9985
2025-02-05 02:00: 0.0015
2025-02-05 02:00: 0.9985
2025-02-05 03:00: 0.0015
2025-02-05 03:00: 0.9985
2025-02-05 04:00: 0.0015
2025-02-05 04:00: 0.9985
Trade Summary: No trades available
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 520732
Question: Will Stephen Miller be Trump’s Director of National Intelligence?
Volume: 161752.542995
Price History:
2025-02-05 17:00: 0.9980
2025-02-05 18:00: 0.0020
2025-02-05 18:00: 0.9980
2025-02-05 19:00: 0.0020
2025-02-05 19:00: 0.9980
2025-02-05 20:00: 0.0015
2025-02-05 20:00: 0.9985
2025-02-05 21:00: 0.0015
2025-02-05 21:00: 0.9985
2025-02-05 22:00: 0.0020
2025-02-05 22:00: 0.9980
2025-02-05 23:00: 0.0020
2025-02-05 23:00: 0.9980
2025-02-06 00:00: 0.0020
2025-02-06 00:00: 0.9980
2025-02-06 01:00: 0.0020
2025-02-06 01:00: 0.9980
2025-02-06 02:00: 0.0020
2025-02-06 02:00: 0.9980
2025-02-06 03:00: 0.0020
2025-02-06 03:00: 0.9980
2025-02-06 04:00: 0.0020
2025-02-06 04:00: 0.9980
2025-02-06 05:00: 0.0015
2025-02-06 05:00: 0.9985
2025-02-06 06:00: 0.0020
2025-02-06 06:00: 0.9980
2025-02-06 07:00: 0.0020
2025-02-06 07:00: 0.9980
2025-02-06 08:00: 0.0020
Trade Summary: No trades available
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 520732
Question: Will Stephen Miller be Trump’s Director of National Intelligence?
Volume: 161752.542995
Price History:
2025-02-06 21:00: 0.0025
2025-02-06 21:00: 0.9975
2025-02-06 22:00: 0.0015
2025-02-06 22:00: 0.9985
2025-02-06 23:00: 0.0015
2025-02-06 23:00: 0.9985
2025-02-07 00:00: 0.0025
2025-02-07 00:00: 0.9975
2025-02-07 01:00: 0.0020
2025-02-07 01:00: 0.9980
2025-02-07 02:00: 0.0025
2025-02-07 02:00: 0.9975
2025-02-07 03:00: 0.0025
2025-02-07 03:00: 0.9975
2025-02-07 04:00: 0.0025
2025-02-07 04:00: 0.9975
2025-02-07 05:00: 0.0015
2025-02-07 05:00: 0.9985
2025-02-07 06:00: 0.0020
2025-02-07 06:00: 0.9980
2025-02-07 07:00: 0.0015
2025-02-07 07:00: 0.9985
2025-02-07 08:00: 0.0015
2025-02-07 08:00: 0.9985
2025-02-07 09:00: 0.0020
2025-02-07 09:00: 0.9980
2025-02-07 10:00: 0.0020
2025-02-07 10:00: 0.9980
2025-02-07 11:00: 0.0020
2025-02-07 11:00: 0.9980
Trade Summary: No trades available
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes