Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 570977
Question: Will Trump announce Kevin Warsh to replace Kugler?
Volume: 30968.24681
Price History:
2025-08-05 02:00: 0.3650
2025-08-05 03:00: 0.6350
2025-08-05 03:00: 0.3650
2025-08-05 04:00: 0.6350
2025-08-05 04:00: 0.3650
2025-08-05 05:00: 0.6350
2025-08-05 05:00: 0.3650
2025-08-05 06:00: 0.6350
2025-08-05 06:00: 0.3650
2025-08-05 07:00: 0.6100
2025-08-05 07:00: 0.3900
2025-08-05 08:00: 0.5650
2025-08-05 08:00: 0.4350
2025-08-05 09:00: 0.5200
2025-08-05 09:00: 0.4800
2025-08-05 10:00: 0.5100
2025-08-05 10:00: 0.4900
2025-08-05 11:00: 0.5150
2025-08-05 11:00: 0.4850
2025-08-05 12:00: 0.5450
2025-08-05 12:00: 0.4550
2025-08-05 13:00: 0.5200
2025-08-05 13:00: 0.4800
Trade Summary: Total trades: 11, Buy volume: 123.00, Sell volume: 63.77, Average price: 0.5409, Price range: 0.4800 - 0.6100
Manipulation Indicators Detected: None

Output: No


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 570977
Question: Will Trump announce Kevin Warsh to replace Kugler?
Volume: 30968.24681
Price History:
2025-08-05 14:00: 0.5150
2025-08-05 14:00: 0.4850
2025-08-05 15:00: 0.5150
2025-08-05 15:00: 0.4850
2025-08-05 16:00: 0.4750
2025-08-05 16:00: 0.5250
2025-08-05 17:00: 0.4500
2025-08-05 17:00: 0.5500
2025-08-05 18:00: 0.4400
2025-08-05 18:00: 0.5600
2025-08-05 19:00: 0.4250
2025-08-05 19:00: 0.5750
2025-08-05 20:00: 0.4450
2025-08-05 20:00: 0.5550
2025-08-05 21:00: 0.4400
2025-08-05 21:00: 0.5600
2025-08-05 22:00: 0.4450
2025-08-05 22:00: 0.5550
2025-08-05 23:00: 0.4250
2025-08-05 23:00: 0.5750
2025-08-06 00:00: 0.4300
2025-08-06 00:00: 0.5700
2025-08-06 01:00: 0.4350
Trade Summary: Total trades: 5, Buy volume: 118.93, Sell volume: 139.46, Average price: 0.4758, Price range: 0.4100 - 0.5700
Manipulation Indicators Detected: None

Output: No


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 570977
Question: Will Trump announce Kevin Warsh to replace Kugler?
Volume: 30968.24681
Price History:
2025-08-06 01:00: 0.5650
2025-08-06 02:00: 0.4350
2025-08-06 02:00: 0.5650
2025-08-06 03:00: 0.4400
2025-08-06 03:00: 0.5600
2025-08-06 04:00: 0.4400
2025-08-06 04:00: 0.5600
2025-08-06 05:00: 0.4350
2025-08-06 05:00: 0.5650
2025-08-06 06:00: 0.4400
2025-08-06 06:00: 0.5600
2025-08-06 07:00: 0.4400
2025-08-06 07:00: 0.5600
2025-08-06 08:00: 0.4400
2025-08-06 08:00: 0.5600
2025-08-06 09:00: 0.4400
2025-08-06 09:00: 0.5600
2025-08-06 10:00: 0.4650
2025-08-06 10:00: 0.5350
2025-08-06 11:00: 0.3300
2025-08-06 11:00: 0.6700
2025-08-06 12:00: 0.4000
2025-08-06 12:00: 0.6000
Trade Summary: Total trades: 4, Buy volume: 1035.42, Sell volume: 0.00, Average price: 0.5750, Price range: 0.4600 - 0.8000
Manipulation Indicators Detected: None

Output: No


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 570977
Question: Will Trump announce Kevin Warsh to replace Kugler?
Volume: 30968.24681
Price History:
2025-08-06 13:00: 0.3650
2025-08-06 13:00: 0.6350
2025-08-06 14:00: 0.4000
2025-08-06 14:00: 0.6000
2025-08-06 15:00: 0.3550
2025-08-06 15:00: 0.6450
2025-08-06 16:00: 0.6450
2025-08-06 16:00: 0.3550
2025-08-06 17:00: 0.6350
2025-08-06 17:00: 0.3650
2025-08-06 18:00: 0.3200
2025-08-06 18:00: 0.6800
2025-08-06 19:00: 0.3050
2025-08-06 19:00: 0.6950
2025-08-06 20:00: 0.7050
2025-08-06 20:00: 0.2950
2025-08-06 21:00: 0.7000
2025-08-06 21:00: 0.3000
2025-08-06 22:00: 0.7000
2025-08-06 22:00: 0.3000
2025-08-06 23:00: 0.7550
2025-08-06 23:00: 0.2450
2025-08-07 00:00: 0.7550
Trade Summary: Total trades: 5, Buy volume: 339.03, Sell volume: 21.07, Average price: 0.5679, Price range: 0.3300 - 0.7400
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 570977
Question: Will Trump announce Kevin Warsh to replace Kugler?
Volume: 30968.24681
Price History:
2025-08-07 00:00: 0.2450
2025-08-07 01:00: 0.7550
2025-08-07 01:00: 0.2450
2025-08-07 02:00: 0.7450
2025-08-07 02:00: 0.2550
2025-08-07 03:00: 0.7450
2025-08-07 03:00: 0.2550
2025-08-07 04:00: 0.2550
2025-08-07 04:00: 0.7450
2025-08-07 05:00: 0.7450
2025-08-07 05:00: 0.2550
2025-08-07 06:00: 0.2550
2025-08-07 06:00: 0.7450
2025-08-07 07:00: 0.7450
2025-08-07 07:00: 0.2550
2025-08-07 08:00: 0.7400
2025-08-07 08:00: 0.2600
2025-08-07 09:00: 0.2550
2025-08-07 09:00: 0.7450
2025-08-07 10:00: 0.7450
2025-08-07 10:00: 0.2550
2025-08-07 11:00: 0.7450
2025-08-07 11:00: 0.2550
Trade Summary: Total trades: 7, Buy volume: 148.46, Sell volume: 1110.50, Average price: 0.3876, Price range: 0.2135 - 0.7400
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 570977
Question: Will Trump announce Kevin Warsh to replace Kugler?
Volume: 30968.24681
Price History:
2025-08-07 12:00: 0.2650
2025-08-07 12:00: 0.7350
2025-08-07 13:00: 0.7350
2025-08-07 13:00: 0.2650
2025-08-07 14:00: 0.3350
2025-08-07 14:00: 0.6650
2025-08-07 15:00: 0.3250
2025-08-07 15:00: 0.6750
2025-08-07 16:00: 0.0095
2025-08-07 16:00: 0.9905
2025-08-07 17:00: 0.9975
2025-08-07 17:00: 0.0025
2025-08-07 18:00: 0.0025
2025-08-07 18:00: 0.9975
2025-08-07 19:00: 0.0025
2025-08-07 19:00: 0.9975
2025-08-07 20:00: 0.0015
2025-08-07 20:00: 0.9985
2025-08-07 21:00: 0.0005
2025-08-07 21:00: 0.9995
2025-08-07 22:00: 0.9995
2025-08-07 22:00: 0.0005
2025-08-07 23:00: 0.9995
Trade Summary: Total trades: 25, Buy volume: 24319.21, Sell volume: 2023.42, Average price: 0.7067, Price range: 0.0010 - 0.9990
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 570978
Question: Will Trump announce Kevin Hassett to replace Kugler?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 14141.96891
Price History:
2025-08-01 18:00: 0.3600
2025-08-01 18:00: 0.6400
2025-08-01 19:00: 0.3650
2025-08-01 19:00: 0.6350
2025-08-01 20:00: 0.3650
2025-08-01 20:00: 0.6350
2025-08-01 21:00: 0.3600
2025-08-01 21:00: 0.6400
2025-08-01 22:00: 0.3600
2025-08-01 22:00: 0.6400
2025-08-01 23:00: 0.3650
2025-08-01 23:00: 0.6350
2025-08-02 00:00: 0.3650
2025-08-02 00:00: 0.6350
2025-08-02 01:00: 0.3650
2025-08-02 01:00: 0.6350
2025-08-02 02:00: 0.3650
2025-08-02 02:00: 0.6350
2025-08-02 03:00: 0.3650
2025-08-02 03:00: 0.6350
2025-08-02 04:00: 0.4000
2025-08-02 04:00: 0.6000
2025-08-02 05:00: 0.4000
Trade Summary: Total trades: 4, Buy volume: 110.33, Sell volume: 0.00, Average price: 0.6230, Price range: 0.5921 - 0.7000

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 570978
Question: Will Trump announce Kevin Hassett to replace Kugler?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 14141.96891
Price History:
2025-08-02 05:00: 0.6000
2025-08-02 06:00: 0.4000
2025-08-02 06:00: 0.6000
2025-08-02 07:00: 0.4000
2025-08-02 07:00: 0.6000
2025-08-02 08:00: 0.4000
2025-08-02 08:00: 0.6000
2025-08-02 09:00: 0.4000
2025-08-02 09:00: 0.6000
2025-08-02 10:00: 0.4000
2025-08-02 10:00: 0.6000
2025-08-02 11:00: 0.4000
2025-08-02 11:00: 0.6000
2025-08-02 12:00: 0.3250
2025-08-02 12:00: 0.6750
2025-08-02 13:00: 0.3250
2025-08-02 13:00: 0.6750
2025-08-02 14:00: 0.3250
2025-08-02 14:00: 0.6750
2025-08-02 15:00: 0.3250
2025-08-02 15:00: 0.6750
2025-08-02 16:00: 0.3150
2025-08-02 16:00: 0.6850
Trade Summary: Total trades: 6, Buy volume: 26.44, Sell volume: 4.53, Average price: 0.5805, Price range: 0.1400 - 0.8400

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 570978
Question: Will Trump announce Kevin Hassett to replace Kugler?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 14141.96891
Price History:
2025-08-02 17:00: 0.3150
2025-08-02 17:00: 0.6850
2025-08-02 18:00: 0.3150
2025-08-02 18:00: 0.6850
2025-08-02 19:00: 0.3100
2025-08-02 19:00: 0.6900
2025-08-02 20:00: 0.3100
2025-08-02 20:00: 0.6900
2025-08-02 21:00: 0.3400
2025-08-02 21:00: 0.6600
2025-08-02 22:00: 0.3400
2025-08-02 22:00: 0.6600
2025-08-02 23:00: 0.3150
2025-08-02 23:00: 0.6850
2025-08-03 00:00: 0.3150
2025-08-03 00:00: 0.6850
2025-08-03 01:00: 0.3150
2025-08-03 01:00: 0.6850
2025-08-03 02:00: 0.3150
2025-08-03 02:00: 0.6850
2025-08-03 03:00: 0.3150
2025-08-03 03:00: 0.6850
2025-08-03 04:00: 0.3150
Trade Summary: Total trades: 2, Buy volume: 2.08, Sell volume: 65.33, Average price: 0.3400, Price range: 0.2000 - 0.4800

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 570978
Question: Will Trump announce Kevin Hassett to replace Kugler?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 14141.96891
Price History:
2025-08-03 04:00: 0.6850
2025-08-03 05:00: 0.3400
2025-08-03 05:00: 0.6600
2025-08-03 06:00: 0.3400
2025-08-03 06:00: 0.6600
2025-08-03 07:00: 0.3400
2025-08-03 07:00: 0.6600
2025-08-03 08:00: 0.3400
2025-08-03 08:00: 0.6600
2025-08-03 09:00: 0.3350
2025-08-03 09:00: 0.6650
2025-08-03 10:00: 0.3350
2025-08-03 10:00: 0.6650
2025-08-03 11:00: 0.3350
2025-08-03 11:00: 0.6650
2025-08-03 12:00: 0.3300
2025-08-03 12:00: 0.6700
2025-08-03 13:00: 0.2800
2025-08-03 13:00: 0.7200
2025-08-03 14:00: 0.2850
2025-08-03 14:00: 0.7150
2025-08-03 15:00: 0.2850
2025-08-03 15:00: 0.7150
Trade Summary: Total trades: 2, Buy volume: 18.37, Sell volume: 0.00, Average price: 0.5850, Price range: 0.4300 - 0.7400

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 570978
Question: Will Trump announce Kevin Hassett to replace Kugler?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 14141.96891
Price History:
2025-08-03 16:00: 0.2750
2025-08-03 16:00: 0.7250
2025-08-03 17:00: 0.2750
2025-08-03 17:00: 0.7250
2025-08-03 18:00: 0.2750
2025-08-03 18:00: 0.7250
2025-08-03 19:00: 0.2750
2025-08-03 19:00: 0.7250
2025-08-03 20:00: 0.2700
2025-08-03 20:00: 0.7300
2025-08-03 21:00: 0.2600
2025-08-03 21:00: 0.7400
2025-08-03 22:00: 0.2500
2025-08-03 22:00: 0.7500
2025-08-03 23:00: 0.1350
2025-08-03 23:00: 0.8650
2025-08-04 00:00: 0.1350
2025-08-04 00:00: 0.8650
2025-08-04 01:00: 0.1350
2025-08-04 01:00: 0.8650
2025-08-04 02:00: 0.1350
2025-08-04 02:00: 0.8650
2025-08-04 03:00: 0.2000
Trade Summary: Total trades: 4, Buy volume: 457.04, Sell volume: 49.79, Average price: 0.7195, Price range: 0.1500 - 0.9500

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 570978
Question: Will Trump announce Kevin Hassett to replace Kugler?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 14141.96891
Price History:
2025-08-04 03:00: 0.8000
2025-08-04 04:00: 0.2150
2025-08-04 04:00: 0.7850
2025-08-04 05:00: 0.2150
2025-08-04 05:00: 0.7850
2025-08-04 06:00: 0.2150
2025-08-04 06:00: 0.7850
2025-08-04 07:00: 0.2150
2025-08-04 07:00: 0.7850
2025-08-04 08:00: 0.2150
2025-08-04 08:00: 0.7850
2025-08-04 09:00: 0.2200
2025-08-04 09:00: 0.7800
2025-08-04 10:00: 0.2150
2025-08-04 10:00: 0.7850
2025-08-04 11:00: 0.2150
2025-08-04 11:00: 0.7850
2025-08-04 12:00: 0.2150
2025-08-04 12:00: 0.7850
2025-08-04 13:00: 0.2150
2025-08-04 13:00: 0.7850
2025-08-04 14:00: 0.1950
2025-08-04 14:00: 0.8050
Trade Summary: Total trades: 3, Buy volume: 12.50, Sell volume: 391.64, Average price: 0.2047, Price range: 0.1840 - 0.2400

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 570978
Question: Will Trump announce Kevin Hassett to replace Kugler?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 14141.96891
Price History:
2025-08-04 15:00: 0.1950
2025-08-04 15:00: 0.8050
2025-08-04 16:00: 0.1850
2025-08-04 16:00: 0.8150
2025-08-04 17:00: 0.1950
2025-08-04 17:00: 0.8050
2025-08-04 18:00: 0.1900
2025-08-04 18:00: 0.8100
2025-08-04 19:00: 0.1850
2025-08-04 19:00: 0.8150
2025-08-04 20:00: 0.2050
2025-08-04 20:00: 0.7950
2025-08-04 21:00: 0.2050
2025-08-04 21:00: 0.7950
2025-08-04 22:00: 0.2050
2025-08-04 22:00: 0.7950
2025-08-04 23:00: 0.2050
2025-08-04 23:00: 0.7950
2025-08-05 00:00: 0.2050
2025-08-05 00:00: 0.7950
2025-08-05 01:00: 0.2050
2025-08-05 01:00: 0.7950
2025-08-05 02:00: 0.2050
Trade Summary: Total trades: 7, Buy volume: 42.42, Sell volume: 523.42, Average price: 0.6223, Price range: 0.2000 - 0.7963

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 570978
Question: Will Trump announce Kevin Hassett to replace Kugler?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 14141.96891
Price History:
2025-08-05 02:00: 0.7950
2025-08-05 03:00: 0.2050
2025-08-05 03:00: 0.7950
2025-08-05 04:00: 0.2050
2025-08-05 04:00: 0.7950
2025-08-05 05:00: 0.2050
2025-08-05 05:00: 0.7950
2025-08-05 06:00: 0.2400
2025-08-05 06:00: 0.7600
2025-08-05 07:00: 0.2400
2025-08-05 07:00: 0.7600
2025-08-05 08:00: 0.3200
2025-08-05 08:00: 0.6800
2025-08-05 09:00: 0.4000
2025-08-05 09:00: 0.6000
2025-08-05 10:00: 0.4150
2025-08-05 10:00: 0.5850
2025-08-05 11:00: 0.3800
2025-08-05 11:00: 0.6200
2025-08-05 12:00: 0.3350
2025-08-05 12:00: 0.6650
2025-08-05 13:00: 0.3650
2025-08-05 13:00: 0.6350
Trade Summary: Total trades: 13, Buy volume: 633.82, Sell volume: 115.36, Average price: 0.4819, Price range: 0.2000 - 0.6800

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 570978
Question: Will Trump announce Kevin Hassett to replace Kugler?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 14141.96891
Price History:
2025-08-05 14:00: 0.3750
2025-08-05 14:00: 0.6250
2025-08-05 15:00: 0.3750
2025-08-05 15:00: 0.6250
2025-08-05 16:00: 0.3900
2025-08-05 16:00: 0.6100
2025-08-05 17:00: 0.3900
2025-08-05 17:00: 0.6100
2025-08-05 18:00: 0.4000
2025-08-05 18:00: 0.6000
2025-08-05 19:00: 0.3950
2025-08-05 19:00: 0.6050
2025-08-05 20:00: 0.3950
2025-08-05 20:00: 0.6050
2025-08-05 21:00: 0.4050
2025-08-05 21:00: 0.5950
2025-08-05 22:00: 0.4150
2025-08-05 22:00: 0.5850
2025-08-05 23:00: 0.4150
2025-08-05 23:00: 0.5850
2025-08-06 00:00: 0.3850
2025-08-06 00:00: 0.6150
2025-08-06 01:00: 0.3850
Trade Summary: Total trades: 5, Buy volume: 234.96, Sell volume: 283.29, Average price: 0.5596, Price range: 0.4100 - 0.6178

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 570978
Question: Will Trump announce Kevin Hassett to replace Kugler?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 14141.96891
Price History:
2025-08-06 01:00: 0.6150
2025-08-06 02:00: 0.3850
2025-08-06 02:00: 0.6150
2025-08-06 03:00: 0.3850
2025-08-06 03:00: 0.6150
2025-08-06 04:00: 0.3750
2025-08-06 04:00: 0.6250
2025-08-06 05:00: 0.3900
2025-08-06 05:00: 0.6100
2025-08-06 06:00: 0.3900
2025-08-06 06:00: 0.6100
2025-08-06 07:00: 0.3850
2025-08-06 07:00: 0.6150
2025-08-06 08:00: 0.3750
2025-08-06 08:00: 0.6250
2025-08-06 09:00: 0.3750
2025-08-06 09:00: 0.6250
2025-08-06 10:00: 0.3800
2025-08-06 10:00: 0.6200
2025-08-06 11:00: 0.3000
2025-08-06 11:00: 0.7000
2025-08-06 12:00: 0.3200
2025-08-06 12:00: 0.6800
Trade Summary: Total trades: 1, Buy volume: 63.62, Sell volume: 0.00, Average price: 0.6465, Price range: 0.6465 - 0.6465

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 570978
Question: Will Trump announce Kevin Hassett to replace Kugler?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 14141.96891
Price History:
2025-08-06 13:00: 0.3150
2025-08-06 13:00: 0.6850
2025-08-06 14:00: 0.3050
2025-08-06 14:00: 0.6950
2025-08-06 15:00: 0.3050
2025-08-06 15:00: 0.6950
2025-08-06 16:00: 0.3050
2025-08-06 16:00: 0.6950
2025-08-06 17:00: 0.3050
2025-08-06 17:00: 0.6950
2025-08-06 18:00: 0.2800
2025-08-06 18:00: 0.7200
2025-08-06 19:00: 0.2750
2025-08-06 19:00: 0.7250
2025-08-06 20:00: 0.1550
2025-08-06 20:00: 0.8450
2025-08-06 21:00: 0.1500
2025-08-06 21:00: 0.8500
2025-08-06 22:00: 0.2250
2025-08-06 22:00: 0.7750
2025-08-06 23:00: 0.8050
2025-08-06 23:00: 0.1950
2025-08-07 00:00: 0.1900
Trade Summary: Total trades: 3, Buy volume: 100.00, Sell volume: 0.00, Average price: 0.5567, Price range: 0.2000 - 0.7600

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 570978
Question: Will Trump announce Kevin Hassett to replace Kugler?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 14141.96891
Price History:
2025-08-07 00:00: 0.8100
2025-08-07 01:00: 0.1850
2025-08-07 01:00: 0.8150
2025-08-07 02:00: 0.1850
2025-08-07 02:00: 0.8150
2025-08-07 03:00: 0.1850
2025-08-07 03:00: 0.8150
2025-08-07 04:00: 0.1900
2025-08-07 04:00: 0.8100
2025-08-07 05:00: 0.1850
2025-08-07 05:00: 0.8150
2025-08-07 06:00: 0.8100
2025-08-07 06:00: 0.1900
2025-08-07 07:00: 0.1900
2025-08-07 07:00: 0.8100
2025-08-07 08:00: 0.2000
2025-08-07 08:00: 0.8000
2025-08-07 09:00: 0.1900
2025-08-07 09:00: 0.8100
2025-08-07 10:00: 0.1950
2025-08-07 10:00: 0.8050
2025-08-07 11:00: 0.1850
2025-08-07 11:00: 0.8150
Trade Summary: Total trades: 7, Buy volume: 793.62, Sell volume: 40.00, Average price: 0.4629, Price range: 0.2000 - 0.8200

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 570978
Question: Will Trump announce Kevin Hassett to replace Kugler?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 14141.96891
Price History:
2025-08-07 12:00: 0.1850
2025-08-07 12:00: 0.8150
2025-08-07 13:00: 0.1850
2025-08-07 13:00: 0.8150
2025-08-07 14:00: 0.7000
2025-08-07 14:00: 0.3000
2025-08-07 15:00: 0.2850
2025-08-07 15:00: 0.7150
2025-08-07 16:00: 0.0100
2025-08-07 16:00: 0.9900
2025-08-07 17:00: 0.0025
2025-08-07 17:00: 0.9975
2025-08-07 18:00: 0.9975
2025-08-07 18:00: 0.0025
2025-08-07 19:00: 0.0025
2025-08-07 19:00: 0.9975
2025-08-07 20:00: 0.9975
2025-08-07 20:00: 0.0025
2025-08-07 21:00: 0.9995
2025-08-07 21:00: 0.0005
2025-08-07 22:00: 0.0005
2025-08-07 22:00: 0.9995
2025-08-07 23:00: 0.0005
Trade Summary: Total trades: 20, Buy volume: 8593.19, Sell volume: 1580.22, Average price: 0.7579, Price range: 0.0100 - 0.9990

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 570978
Question: Will Trump announce Kevin Hassett to replace Kugler?
Volume: 14141.96891
Price History:
2025-08-01 18:00: 0.3600
2025-08-01 18:00: 0.6400
2025-08-01 19:00: 0.3650
2025-08-01 19:00: 0.6350
2025-08-01 20:00: 0.3650
2025-08-01 20:00: 0.6350
2025-08-01 21:00: 0.3600
2025-08-01 21:00: 0.6400
2025-08-01 22:00: 0.3600
2025-08-01 22:00: 0.6400
2025-08-01 23:00: 0.3650
2025-08-01 23:00: 0.6350
2025-08-02 00:00: 0.3650
2025-08-02 00:00: 0.6350
2025-08-02 01:00: 0.3650
2025-08-02 01:00: 0.6350
2025-08-02 02:00: 0.3650
2025-08-02 02:00: 0.6350
2025-08-02 03:00: 0.3650
2025-08-02 03:00: 0.6350
2025-08-02 04:00: 0.4000
2025-08-02 04:00: 0.6000
2025-08-02 05:00: 0.4000
Trade Summary: Total trades: 4, Buy volume: 110.33, Sell volume: 0.00, Average price: 0.6230, Price range: 0.5921 - 0.7000
Manipulation Indicators Detected: None

Output: No


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 570978
Question: Will Trump announce Kevin Hassett to replace Kugler?
Volume: 14141.96891
Price History:
2025-08-02 05:00: 0.6000
2025-08-02 06:00: 0.4000
2025-08-02 06:00: 0.6000
2025-08-02 07:00: 0.4000
2025-08-02 07:00: 0.6000
2025-08-02 08:00: 0.4000
2025-08-02 08:00: 0.6000
2025-08-02 09:00: 0.4000
2025-08-02 09:00: 0.6000
2025-08-02 10:00: 0.4000
2025-08-02 10:00: 0.6000
2025-08-02 11:00: 0.4000
2025-08-02 11:00: 0.6000
2025-08-02 12:00: 0.3250
2025-08-02 12:00: 0.6750
2025-08-02 13:00: 0.3250
2025-08-02 13:00: 0.6750
2025-08-02 14:00: 0.3250
2025-08-02 14:00: 0.6750
2025-08-02 15:00: 0.3250
2025-08-02 15:00: 0.6750
2025-08-02 16:00: 0.3150
2025-08-02 16:00: 0.6850
Trade Summary: Total trades: 6, Buy volume: 26.44, Sell volume: 4.53, Average price: 0.5805, Price range: 0.1400 - 0.8400
Manipulation Indicators Detected: wash_trading

Output: No


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 570978
Question: Will Trump announce Kevin Hassett to replace Kugler?
Volume: 14141.96891
Price History:
2025-08-02 17:00: 0.3150
2025-08-02 17:00: 0.6850
2025-08-02 18:00: 0.3150
2025-08-02 18:00: 0.6850
2025-08-02 19:00: 0.3100
2025-08-02 19:00: 0.6900
2025-08-02 20:00: 0.3100
2025-08-02 20:00: 0.6900
2025-08-02 21:00: 0.3400
2025-08-02 21:00: 0.6600
2025-08-02 22:00: 0.3400
2025-08-02 22:00: 0.6600
2025-08-02 23:00: 0.3150
2025-08-02 23:00: 0.6850
2025-08-03 00:00: 0.3150
2025-08-03 00:00: 0.6850
2025-08-03 01:00: 0.3150
2025-08-03 01:00: 0.6850
2025-08-03 02:00: 0.3150
2025-08-03 02:00: 0.6850
2025-08-03 03:00: 0.3150
2025-08-03 03:00: 0.6850
2025-08-03 04:00: 0.3150
Trade Summary: Total trades: 2, Buy volume: 2.08, Sell volume: 65.33, Average price: 0.3400, Price range: 0.2000 - 0.4800
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility

Output: No


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 570978
Question: Will Trump announce Kevin Hassett to replace Kugler?
Volume: 14141.96891
Price History:
2025-08-03 04:00: 0.6850
2025-08-03 05:00: 0.3400
2025-08-03 05:00: 0.6600
2025-08-03 06:00: 0.3400
2025-08-03 06:00: 0.6600
2025-08-03 07:00: 0.3400
2025-08-03 07:00: 0.6600
2025-08-03 08:00: 0.3400
2025-08-03 08:00: 0.6600
2025-08-03 09:00: 0.3350
2025-08-03 09:00: 0.6650
2025-08-03 10:00: 0.3350
2025-08-03 10:00: 0.6650
2025-08-03 11:00: 0.3350
2025-08-03 11:00: 0.6650
2025-08-03 12:00: 0.3300
2025-08-03 12:00: 0.6700
2025-08-03 13:00: 0.2800
2025-08-03 13:00: 0.7200
2025-08-03 14:00: 0.2850
2025-08-03 14:00: 0.7150
2025-08-03 15:00: 0.2850
2025-08-03 15:00: 0.7150
Trade Summary: Total trades: 2, Buy volume: 18.37, Sell volume: 0.00, Average price: 0.5850, Price range: 0.4300 - 0.7400
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility

Output: No


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 570978
Question: Will Trump announce Kevin Hassett to replace Kugler?
Volume: 14141.96891
Price History:
2025-08-03 16:00: 0.2750
2025-08-03 16:00: 0.7250
2025-08-03 17:00: 0.2750
2025-08-03 17:00: 0.7250
2025-08-03 18:00: 0.2750
2025-08-03 18:00: 0.7250
2025-08-03 19:00: 0.2750
2025-08-03 19:00: 0.7250
2025-08-03 20:00: 0.2700
2025-08-03 20:00: 0.7300
2025-08-03 21:00: 0.2600
2025-08-03 21:00: 0.7400
2025-08-03 22:00: 0.2500
2025-08-03 22:00: 0.7500
2025-08-03 23:00: 0.1350
2025-08-03 23:00: 0.8650
2025-08-04 00:00: 0.1350
2025-08-04 00:00: 0.8650
2025-08-04 01:00: 0.1350
2025-08-04 01:00: 0.8650
2025-08-04 02:00: 0.1350
2025-08-04 02:00: 0.8650
2025-08-04 03:00: 0.2000
Trade Summary: Total trades: 4, Buy volume: 457.04, Sell volume: 49.79, Average price: 0.7195, Price range: 0.1500 - 0.9500
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike, wash_trading

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 570978
Question: Will Trump announce Kevin Hassett to replace Kugler?
Volume: 14141.96891
Price History:
2025-08-04 03:00: 0.8000
2025-08-04 04:00: 0.2150
2025-08-04 04:00: 0.7850
2025-08-04 05:00: 0.2150
2025-08-04 05:00: 0.7850
2025-08-04 06:00: 0.2150
2025-08-04 06:00: 0.7850
2025-08-04 07:00: 0.2150
2025-08-04 07:00: 0.7850
2025-08-04 08:00: 0.2150
2025-08-04 08:00: 0.7850
2025-08-04 09:00: 0.2200
2025-08-04 09:00: 0.7800
2025-08-04 10:00: 0.2150
2025-08-04 10:00: 0.7850
2025-08-04 11:00: 0.2150
2025-08-04 11:00: 0.7850
2025-08-04 12:00: 0.2150
2025-08-04 12:00: 0.7850
2025-08-04 13:00: 0.2150
2025-08-04 13:00: 0.7850
2025-08-04 14:00: 0.1950
2025-08-04 14:00: 0.8050
Trade Summary: Total trades: 3, Buy volume: 12.50, Sell volume: 391.64, Average price: 0.2047, Price range: 0.1840 - 0.2400
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 570978
Question: Will Trump announce Kevin Hassett to replace Kugler?
Volume: 14141.96891
Price History:
2025-08-04 15:00: 0.1950
2025-08-04 15:00: 0.8050
2025-08-04 16:00: 0.1850
2025-08-04 16:00: 0.8150
2025-08-04 17:00: 0.1950
2025-08-04 17:00: 0.8050
2025-08-04 18:00: 0.1900
2025-08-04 18:00: 0.8100
2025-08-04 19:00: 0.1850
2025-08-04 19:00: 0.8150
2025-08-04 20:00: 0.2050
2025-08-04 20:00: 0.7950
2025-08-04 21:00: 0.2050
2025-08-04 21:00: 0.7950
2025-08-04 22:00: 0.2050
2025-08-04 22:00: 0.7950
2025-08-04 23:00: 0.2050
2025-08-04 23:00: 0.7950
2025-08-05 00:00: 0.2050
2025-08-05 00:00: 0.7950
2025-08-05 01:00: 0.2050
2025-08-05 01:00: 0.7950
2025-08-05 02:00: 0.2050
Trade Summary: Total trades: 7, Buy volume: 42.42, Sell volume: 523.42, Average price: 0.6223, Price range: 0.2000 - 0.7963
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike, wash_trading

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 570978
Question: Will Trump announce Kevin Hassett to replace Kugler?
Volume: 14141.96891
Price History:
2025-08-05 02:00: 0.7950
2025-08-05 03:00: 0.2050
2025-08-05 03:00: 0.7950
2025-08-05 04:00: 0.2050
2025-08-05 04:00: 0.7950
2025-08-05 05:00: 0.2050
2025-08-05 05:00: 0.7950
2025-08-05 06:00: 0.2400
2025-08-05 06:00: 0.7600
2025-08-05 07:00: 0.2400
2025-08-05 07:00: 0.7600
2025-08-05 08:00: 0.3200
2025-08-05 08:00: 0.6800
2025-08-05 09:00: 0.4000
2025-08-05 09:00: 0.6000
2025-08-05 10:00: 0.4150
2025-08-05 10:00: 0.5850
2025-08-05 11:00: 0.3800
2025-08-05 11:00: 0.6200
2025-08-05 12:00: 0.3350
2025-08-05 12:00: 0.6650
2025-08-05 13:00: 0.3650
2025-08-05 13:00: 0.6350
Trade Summary: Total trades: 13, Buy volume: 633.82, Sell volume: 115.36, Average price: 0.4819, Price range: 0.2000 - 0.6800
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 570978
Question: Will Trump announce Kevin Hassett to replace Kugler?
Volume: 14141.96891
Price History:
2025-08-05 14:00: 0.3750
2025-08-05 14:00: 0.6250
2025-08-05 15:00: 0.3750
2025-08-05 15:00: 0.6250
2025-08-05 16:00: 0.3900
2025-08-05 16:00: 0.6100
2025-08-05 17:00: 0.3900
2025-08-05 17:00: 0.6100
2025-08-05 18:00: 0.4000
2025-08-05 18:00: 0.6000
2025-08-05 19:00: 0.3950
2025-08-05 19:00: 0.6050
2025-08-05 20:00: 0.3950
2025-08-05 20:00: 0.6050
2025-08-05 21:00: 0.4050
2025-08-05 21:00: 0.5950
2025-08-05 22:00: 0.4150
2025-08-05 22:00: 0.5850
2025-08-05 23:00: 0.4150
2025-08-05 23:00: 0.5850
2025-08-06 00:00: 0.3850
2025-08-06 00:00: 0.6150
2025-08-06 01:00: 0.3850
Trade Summary: Total trades: 5, Buy volume: 234.96, Sell volume: 283.29, Average price: 0.5596, Price range: 0.4100 - 0.6178
Manipulation Indicators Detected: None

Output: No


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 570978
Question: Will Trump announce Kevin Hassett to replace Kugler?
Volume: 14141.96891
Price History:
2025-08-06 01:00: 0.6150
2025-08-06 02:00: 0.3850
2025-08-06 02:00: 0.6150
2025-08-06 03:00: 0.3850
2025-08-06 03:00: 0.6150
2025-08-06 04:00: 0.3750
2025-08-06 04:00: 0.6250
2025-08-06 05:00: 0.3900
2025-08-06 05:00: 0.6100
2025-08-06 06:00: 0.3900
2025-08-06 06:00: 0.6100
2025-08-06 07:00: 0.3850
2025-08-06 07:00: 0.6150
2025-08-06 08:00: 0.3750
2025-08-06 08:00: 0.6250
2025-08-06 09:00: 0.3750
2025-08-06 09:00: 0.6250
2025-08-06 10:00: 0.3800
2025-08-06 10:00: 0.6200
2025-08-06 11:00: 0.3000
2025-08-06 11:00: 0.7000
2025-08-06 12:00: 0.3200
2025-08-06 12:00: 0.6800
Trade Summary: Total trades: 1, Buy volume: 63.62, Sell volume: 0.00, Average price: 0.6465, Price range: 0.6465 - 0.6465
Manipulation Indicators Detected: None

Output: No


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 570978
Question: Will Trump announce Kevin Hassett to replace Kugler?
Volume: 14141.96891
Price History:
2025-08-06 13:00: 0.3150
2025-08-06 13:00: 0.6850
2025-08-06 14:00: 0.3050
2025-08-06 14:00: 0.6950
2025-08-06 15:00: 0.3050
2025-08-06 15:00: 0.6950
2025-08-06 16:00: 0.3050
2025-08-06 16:00: 0.6950
2025-08-06 17:00: 0.3050
2025-08-06 17:00: 0.6950
2025-08-06 18:00: 0.2800
2025-08-06 18:00: 0.7200
2025-08-06 19:00: 0.2750
2025-08-06 19:00: 0.7250
2025-08-06 20:00: 0.1550
2025-08-06 20:00: 0.8450
2025-08-06 21:00: 0.1500
2025-08-06 21:00: 0.8500
2025-08-06 22:00: 0.2250
2025-08-06 22:00: 0.7750
2025-08-06 23:00: 0.8050
2025-08-06 23:00: 0.1950
2025-08-07 00:00: 0.1900
Trade Summary: Total trades: 3, Buy volume: 100.00, Sell volume: 0.00, Average price: 0.5567, Price range: 0.2000 - 0.7600
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 570978
Question: Will Trump announce Kevin Hassett to replace Kugler?
Volume: 14141.96891
Price History:
2025-08-07 00:00: 0.8100
2025-08-07 01:00: 0.1850
2025-08-07 01:00: 0.8150
2025-08-07 02:00: 0.1850
2025-08-07 02:00: 0.8150
2025-08-07 03:00: 0.1850
2025-08-07 03:00: 0.8150
2025-08-07 04:00: 0.1900
2025-08-07 04:00: 0.8100
2025-08-07 05:00: 0.1850
2025-08-07 05:00: 0.8150
2025-08-07 06:00: 0.8100
2025-08-07 06:00: 0.1900
2025-08-07 07:00: 0.1900
2025-08-07 07:00: 0.8100
2025-08-07 08:00: 0.2000
2025-08-07 08:00: 0.8000
2025-08-07 09:00: 0.1900
2025-08-07 09:00: 0.8100
2025-08-07 10:00: 0.1950
2025-08-07 10:00: 0.8050
2025-08-07 11:00: 0.1850
2025-08-07 11:00: 0.8150
Trade Summary: Total trades: 7, Buy volume: 793.62, Sell volume: 40.00, Average price: 0.4629, Price range: 0.2000 - 0.8200
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike, wash_trading

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 570978
Question: Will Trump announce Kevin Hassett to replace Kugler?
Volume: 14141.96891
Price History:
2025-08-07 12:00: 0.1850
2025-08-07 12:00: 0.8150
2025-08-07 13:00: 0.1850
2025-08-07 13:00: 0.8150
2025-08-07 14:00: 0.7000
2025-08-07 14:00: 0.3000
2025-08-07 15:00: 0.2850
2025-08-07 15:00: 0.7150
2025-08-07 16:00: 0.0100
2025-08-07 16:00: 0.9900
2025-08-07 17:00: 0.0025
2025-08-07 17:00: 0.9975
2025-08-07 18:00: 0.9975
2025-08-07 18:00: 0.0025
2025-08-07 19:00: 0.0025
2025-08-07 19:00: 0.9975
2025-08-07 20:00: 0.9975
2025-08-07 20:00: 0.0025
2025-08-07 21:00: 0.9995
2025-08-07 21:00: 0.0005
2025-08-07 22:00: 0.0005
2025-08-07 22:00: 0.9995
2025-08-07 23:00: 0.0005
Trade Summary: Total trades: 20, Buy volume: 8593.19, Sell volume: 1580.22, Average price: 0.7579, Price range: 0.0100 - 0.9990
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 570979
Question: Will Trump announce Arthur Laffer to replace Kugler?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 7206.7701
Price History:
2025-08-01 18:00: 0.2000
2025-08-01 18:00: 0.8000
2025-08-01 19:00: 0.2000
2025-08-01 19:00: 0.8000
2025-08-01 20:00: 0.2000
2025-08-01 20:00: 0.8000
2025-08-01 21:00: 0.1950
2025-08-01 21:00: 0.8050
2025-08-01 22:00: 0.1950
2025-08-01 22:00: 0.8050
2025-08-01 23:00: 0.1950
2025-08-01 23:00: 0.8050
2025-08-02 00:00: 0.2000
2025-08-02 00:00: 0.8000
2025-08-02 01:00: 0.2000
2025-08-02 01:00: 0.8000
2025-08-02 02:00: 0.2000
2025-08-02 02:00: 0.8000
2025-08-02 03:00: 0.2000
2025-08-02 03:00: 0.8000
2025-08-02 04:00: 0.1900
2025-08-02 04:00: 0.8100
2025-08-02 05:00: 0.1900
Trade Summary: Total trades: 1, Buy volume: 20.00, Sell volume: 0.00, Average price: 0.3900, Price range: 0.3900 - 0.3900

Output: No


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 570979
Question: Will Trump announce Arthur Laffer to replace Kugler?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 7206.7701
Price History:
2025-08-02 05:00: 0.8100
2025-08-02 06:00: 0.1900
2025-08-02 06:00: 0.8100
2025-08-02 07:00: 0.1800
2025-08-02 07:00: 0.8200
2025-08-02 08:00: 0.1800
2025-08-02 08:00: 0.8200
2025-08-02 09:00: 0.1600
2025-08-02 09:00: 0.8400
2025-08-02 10:00: 0.1600
2025-08-02 10:00: 0.8400
2025-08-02 11:00: 0.1600
2025-08-02 11:00: 0.8400
2025-08-02 12:00: 0.1850
2025-08-02 12:00: 0.8150
2025-08-02 13:00: 0.1850
2025-08-02 13:00: 0.8150
2025-08-02 14:00: 0.1850
2025-08-02 14:00: 0.8150
2025-08-02 15:00: 0.1850
2025-08-02 15:00: 0.8150
2025-08-02 16:00: 0.1850
2025-08-02 16:00: 0.8150
Trade Summary: Total trades: 1, Buy volume: 0.00, Sell volume: 1.00, Average price: 0.0100, Price range: 0.0100 - 0.0100

Output: No


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 570979
Question: Will Trump announce Arthur Laffer to replace Kugler?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 7206.7701
Price History:
2025-08-02 17:00: 0.1850
2025-08-02 17:00: 0.8150
2025-08-02 18:00: 0.2000
2025-08-02 18:00: 0.8000
2025-08-02 19:00: 0.1950
2025-08-02 19:00: 0.8050
2025-08-02 20:00: 0.1950
2025-08-02 20:00: 0.8050
2025-08-02 21:00: 0.1950
2025-08-02 21:00: 0.8050
2025-08-02 22:00: 0.1950
2025-08-02 22:00: 0.8050
2025-08-02 23:00: 0.1950
2025-08-02 23:00: 0.8050
2025-08-03 00:00: 0.1950
2025-08-03 00:00: 0.8050
2025-08-03 01:00: 0.1950
2025-08-03 01:00: 0.8050
2025-08-03 02:00: 0.1950
2025-08-03 02:00: 0.8050
2025-08-03 03:00: 0.1950
2025-08-03 03:00: 0.8050
2025-08-03 04:00: 0.1950
Trade Summary: Total trades: 20, Buy volume: 7195.77, Sell volume: 11.00, Average price: 0.8625, Price range: 0.0100 - 0.9990

Output: No


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 570979
Question: Will Trump announce Arthur Laffer to replace Kugler?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 7206.7701
Price History:
2025-08-03 04:00: 0.8050
2025-08-03 05:00: 0.1950
2025-08-03 05:00: 0.8050
2025-08-03 06:00: 0.1050
2025-08-03 06:00: 0.8950
2025-08-03 07:00: 0.0900
2025-08-03 07:00: 0.9100
2025-08-03 08:00: 0.0900
2025-08-03 08:00: 0.9100
2025-08-03 09:00: 0.0950
2025-08-03 09:00: 0.9050
2025-08-03 10:00: 0.0950
2025-08-03 10:00: 0.9050
2025-08-03 11:00: 0.0950
2025-08-03 11:00: 0.9050
2025-08-03 12:00: 0.1100
2025-08-03 12:00: 0.8900
2025-08-03 13:00: 0.1700
2025-08-03 13:00: 0.8300
2025-08-03 14:00: 0.1600
2025-08-03 14:00: 0.8400
2025-08-03 15:00: 0.1500
2025-08-03 15:00: 0.8500
Trade Summary: Total trades: 1, Buy volume: 10.00, Sell volume: 0.00, Average price: 0.9900, Price range: 0.9900 - 0.9900

Output: No


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 570979
Question: Will Trump announce Arthur Laffer to replace Kugler?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 7206.7701
Price History:
2025-08-03 16:00: 0.1500
2025-08-03 16:00: 0.8500
2025-08-03 17:00: 0.1500
2025-08-03 17:00: 0.8500
2025-08-03 18:00: 0.1850
2025-08-03 18:00: 0.8150
2025-08-03 19:00: 0.1800
2025-08-03 19:00: 0.8200
2025-08-03 20:00: 0.1800
2025-08-03 20:00: 0.8200
2025-08-03 21:00: 0.1800
2025-08-03 21:00: 0.8200
2025-08-03 22:00: 0.1700
2025-08-03 22:00: 0.8300
2025-08-03 23:00: 0.1700
2025-08-03 23:00: 0.8300
2025-08-04 00:00: 0.1750
2025-08-04 00:00: 0.8250
2025-08-04 01:00: 0.1550
2025-08-04 01:00: 0.8450
2025-08-04 02:00: 0.1550
2025-08-04 02:00: 0.8450
2025-08-04 03:00: 0.1900
Trade Summary: Total trades: 1, Buy volume: 1.01, Sell volume: 0.00, Average price: 0.9900, Price range: 0.9900 - 0.9900

Output: No


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 570979
Question: Will Trump announce Arthur Laffer to replace Kugler?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 7206.7701
Price History:
2025-08-04 03:00: 0.8100
2025-08-04 04:00: 0.1600
2025-08-04 04:00: 0.8400
2025-08-04 05:00: 0.1600
2025-08-04 05:00: 0.8400
2025-08-04 06:00: 0.1600
2025-08-04 06:00: 0.8400
2025-08-04 07:00: 0.1600
2025-08-04 07:00: 0.8400
2025-08-04 08:00: 0.1550
2025-08-04 08:00: 0.8450
2025-08-04 09:00: 0.1500
2025-08-04 09:00: 0.8500
2025-08-04 10:00: 0.1500
2025-08-04 10:00: 0.8500
2025-08-04 11:00: 0.1500
2025-08-04 11:00: 0.8500
2025-08-04 12:00: 0.1450
2025-08-04 12:00: 0.8550
2025-08-04 13:00: 0.1450
2025-08-04 13:00: 0.8550
2025-08-04 14:00: 0.1450
2025-08-04 14:00: 0.8550
Trade Summary: Total trades: 20, Buy volume: 7195.77, Sell volume: 11.00, Average price: 0.8625, Price range: 0.0100 - 0.9990

Output: No


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 570979
Question: Will Trump announce Arthur Laffer to replace Kugler?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 7206.7701
Price History:
2025-08-04 15:00: 0.1650
2025-08-04 15:00: 0.8350
2025-08-04 16:00: 0.0350
2025-08-04 16:00: 0.9650
2025-08-04 17:00: 0.0355
2025-08-04 17:00: 0.9645
2025-08-04 18:00: 0.0360
2025-08-04 18:00: 0.9640
2025-08-04 19:00: 0.0325
2025-08-04 19:00: 0.9675
2025-08-04 20:00: 0.0335
2025-08-04 20:00: 0.9665
2025-08-04 21:00: 0.0335
2025-08-04 21:00: 0.9665
2025-08-04 22:00: 0.0335
2025-08-04 22:00: 0.9665
2025-08-04 23:00: 0.0335
2025-08-04 23:00: 0.9665
2025-08-05 00:00: 0.0335
2025-08-05 00:00: 0.9665
2025-08-05 01:00: 0.0335
2025-08-05 01:00: 0.9665
2025-08-05 02:00: 0.0335
Trade Summary: Total trades: 20, Buy volume: 7195.77, Sell volume: 11.00, Average price: 0.8625, Price range: 0.0100 - 0.9990

Output: No


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 570979
Question: Will Trump announce Arthur Laffer to replace Kugler?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 7206.7701
Price History:
2025-08-05 02:00: 0.9665
2025-08-05 03:00: 0.0335
2025-08-05 03:00: 0.9665
2025-08-05 04:00: 0.0335
2025-08-05 04:00: 0.9665
2025-08-05 05:00: 0.0335
2025-08-05 05:00: 0.9665
2025-08-05 06:00: 0.0335
2025-08-05 06:00: 0.9665
2025-08-05 07:00: 0.0330
2025-08-05 07:00: 0.9670
2025-08-05 08:00: 0.0335
2025-08-05 08:00: 0.9665
2025-08-05 09:00: 0.0330
2025-08-05 09:00: 0.9670
2025-08-05 10:00: 0.0340
2025-08-05 10:00: 0.9660
2025-08-05 11:00: 0.0360
2025-08-05 11:00: 0.9640
2025-08-05 12:00: 0.0375
2025-08-05 12:00: 0.9625
2025-08-05 13:00: 0.0335
2025-08-05 13:00: 0.9665
Trade Summary: Total trades: 3, Buy volume: 32.32, Sell volume: 10.00, Average price: 0.6550, Price range: 0.0270 - 0.9690

Output: No


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 570979
Question: Will Trump announce Arthur Laffer to replace Kugler?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 7206.7701
Price History:
2025-08-05 14:00: 0.0335
2025-08-05 14:00: 0.9665
2025-08-05 15:00: 0.0355
2025-08-05 15:00: 0.9645
2025-08-05 16:00: 0.0325
2025-08-05 16:00: 0.9675
2025-08-05 17:00: 0.0325
2025-08-05 17:00: 0.9675
2025-08-05 18:00: 0.0320
2025-08-05 18:00: 0.9680
2025-08-05 19:00: 0.0320
2025-08-05 19:00: 0.9680
2025-08-05 20:00: 0.0325
2025-08-05 20:00: 0.9675
2025-08-05 21:00: 0.0325
2025-08-05 21:00: 0.9675
2025-08-05 22:00: 0.0305
2025-08-05 22:00: 0.9695
2025-08-05 23:00: 0.0300
2025-08-05 23:00: 0.9700
2025-08-06 00:00: 0.0305
2025-08-06 00:00: 0.9695
2025-08-06 01:00: 0.0305
Trade Summary: Total trades: 20, Buy volume: 7195.77, Sell volume: 11.00, Average price: 0.8625, Price range: 0.0100 - 0.9990

Output: No


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 570979
Question: Will Trump announce Arthur Laffer to replace Kugler?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 7206.7701
Price History:
2025-08-06 01:00: 0.9695
2025-08-06 02:00: 0.0305
2025-08-06 02:00: 0.9695
2025-08-06 03:00: 0.0305
2025-08-06 03:00: 0.9695
2025-08-06 04:00: 0.0300
2025-08-06 04:00: 0.9700
2025-08-06 05:00: 0.0300
2025-08-06 05:00: 0.9700
2025-08-06 06:00: 0.0310
2025-08-06 06:00: 0.9690
2025-08-06 07:00: 0.0310
2025-08-06 07:00: 0.9690
2025-08-06 08:00: 0.0310
2025-08-06 08:00: 0.9690
2025-08-06 09:00: 0.0305
2025-08-06 09:00: 0.9695
2025-08-06 10:00: 0.0310
2025-08-06 10:00: 0.9690
2025-08-06 11:00: 0.0310
2025-08-06 11:00: 0.9690
2025-08-06 12:00: 0.0305
2025-08-06 12:00: 0.9695
Trade Summary: Total trades: 20, Buy volume: 7195.77, Sell volume: 11.00, Average price: 0.8625, Price range: 0.0100 - 0.9990

Output: No


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 570979
Question: Will Trump announce Arthur Laffer to replace Kugler?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 7206.7701
Price History:
2025-08-06 13:00: 0.0310
2025-08-06 13:00: 0.9690
2025-08-06 14:00: 0.0305
2025-08-06 14:00: 0.9695
2025-08-06 15:00: 0.0305
2025-08-06 15:00: 0.9695
2025-08-06 16:00: 0.9690
2025-08-06 16:00: 0.0310
2025-08-06 17:00: 0.9695
2025-08-06 17:00: 0.0305
2025-08-06 18:00: 0.0305
2025-08-06 18:00: 0.9695
2025-08-06 19:00: 0.0305
2025-08-06 19:00: 0.9695
2025-08-06 20:00: 0.9695
2025-08-06 20:00: 0.0305
2025-08-06 21:00: 0.9695
2025-08-06 21:00: 0.0305
2025-08-06 22:00: 0.9690
2025-08-06 22:00: 0.0310
2025-08-06 23:00: 0.9695
2025-08-06 23:00: 0.0305
2025-08-07 00:00: 0.0310
Trade Summary: Total trades: 1, Buy volume: 10.00, Sell volume: 0.00, Average price: 0.9770, Price range: 0.9770 - 0.9770

Output: No


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 570979
Question: Will Trump announce Arthur Laffer to replace Kugler?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 7206.7701
Price History:
2025-08-07 00:00: 0.9690
2025-08-07 01:00: 0.0310
2025-08-07 01:00: 0.9690
2025-08-07 02:00: 0.0310
2025-08-07 02:00: 0.9690
2025-08-07 03:00: 0.0310
2025-08-07 03:00: 0.9690
2025-08-07 04:00: 0.0310
2025-08-07 04:00: 0.9690
2025-08-07 05:00: 0.9685
2025-08-07 05:00: 0.0315
2025-08-07 06:00: 0.0315
2025-08-07 06:00: 0.9685
2025-08-07 07:00: 0.9685
2025-08-07 07:00: 0.0315
2025-08-07 08:00: 0.9685
2025-08-07 08:00: 0.0315
2025-08-07 09:00: 0.9685
2025-08-07 09:00: 0.0315
2025-08-07 10:00: 0.9685
2025-08-07 10:00: 0.0315
2025-08-07 11:00: 0.9685
2025-08-07 11:00: 0.0315
Trade Summary: Total trades: 20, Buy volume: 7195.77, Sell volume: 11.00, Average price: 0.8625, Price range: 0.0100 - 0.9990

Output: No


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 570979
Question: Will Trump announce Arthur Laffer to replace Kugler?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 7206.7701
Price History:
2025-08-07 12:00: 0.0315
2025-08-07 12:00: 0.9685
2025-08-07 13:00: 0.9690
2025-08-07 13:00: 0.0310
2025-08-07 14:00: 0.0315
2025-08-07 14:00: 0.9685
2025-08-07 15:00: 0.0315
2025-08-07 15:00: 0.9685
2025-08-07 16:00: 0.9950
2025-08-07 16:00: 0.0050
2025-08-07 17:00: 0.9990
2025-08-07 17:00: 0.0010
2025-08-07 18:00: 0.0010
2025-08-07 18:00: 0.9990
2025-08-07 19:00: 0.9990
2025-08-07 19:00: 0.0010
2025-08-07 20:00: 0.0010
2025-08-07 20:00: 0.9990
2025-08-07 21:00: 0.0005
2025-08-07 21:00: 0.9995
2025-08-07 22:00: 0.9995
2025-08-07 22:00: 0.0005
2025-08-07 23:00: 0.9995
Trade Summary: Total trades: 12, Buy volume: 7122.44, Sell volume: 0.00, Average price: 0.9940, Price range: 0.9785 - 0.9990

Output: No


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 570979
Question: Will Trump announce Arthur Laffer to replace Kugler?
Volume: 7206.7701
Price History:
2025-08-01 18:00: 0.2000
2025-08-01 18:00: 0.8000
2025-08-01 19:00: 0.2000
2025-08-01 19:00: 0.8000
2025-08-01 20:00: 0.2000
2025-08-01 20:00: 0.8000
2025-08-01 21:00: 0.1950
2025-08-01 21:00: 0.8050
2025-08-01 22:00: 0.1950
2025-08-01 22:00: 0.8050
2025-08-01 23:00: 0.1950
2025-08-01 23:00: 0.8050
2025-08-02 00:00: 0.2000
2025-08-02 00:00: 0.8000
2025-08-02 01:00: 0.2000
2025-08-02 01:00: 0.8000
2025-08-02 02:00: 0.2000
2025-08-02 02:00: 0.8000
2025-08-02 03:00: 0.2000
2025-08-02 03:00: 0.8000
2025-08-02 04:00: 0.1900
2025-08-02 04:00: 0.8100
2025-08-02 05:00: 0.1900
Trade Summary: Total trades: 1, Buy volume: 20.00, Sell volume: 0.00, Average price: 0.3900, Price range: 0.3900 - 0.3900
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 570979
Question: Will Trump announce Arthur Laffer to replace Kugler?
Volume: 7206.7701
Price History:
2025-08-02 05:00: 0.8100
2025-08-02 06:00: 0.1900
2025-08-02 06:00: 0.8100
2025-08-02 07:00: 0.1800
2025-08-02 07:00: 0.8200
2025-08-02 08:00: 0.1800
2025-08-02 08:00: 0.8200
2025-08-02 09:00: 0.1600
2025-08-02 09:00: 0.8400
2025-08-02 10:00: 0.1600
2025-08-02 10:00: 0.8400
2025-08-02 11:00: 0.1600
2025-08-02 11:00: 0.8400
2025-08-02 12:00: 0.1850
2025-08-02 12:00: 0.8150
2025-08-02 13:00: 0.1850
2025-08-02 13:00: 0.8150
2025-08-02 14:00: 0.1850
2025-08-02 14:00: 0.8150
2025-08-02 15:00: 0.1850
2025-08-02 15:00: 0.8150
2025-08-02 16:00: 0.1850
2025-08-02 16:00: 0.8150
Trade Summary: Total trades: 1, Buy volume: 0.00, Sell volume: 1.00, Average price: 0.0100, Price range: 0.0100 - 0.0100
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 570979
Question: Will Trump announce Arthur Laffer to replace Kugler?
Volume: 7206.7701
Price History:
2025-08-02 17:00: 0.1850
2025-08-02 17:00: 0.8150
2025-08-02 18:00: 0.2000
2025-08-02 18:00: 0.8000
2025-08-02 19:00: 0.1950
2025-08-02 19:00: 0.8050
2025-08-02 20:00: 0.1950
2025-08-02 20:00: 0.8050
2025-08-02 21:00: 0.1950
2025-08-02 21:00: 0.8050
2025-08-02 22:00: 0.1950
2025-08-02 22:00: 0.8050
2025-08-02 23:00: 0.1950
2025-08-02 23:00: 0.8050
2025-08-03 00:00: 0.1950
2025-08-03 00:00: 0.8050
2025-08-03 01:00: 0.1950
2025-08-03 01:00: 0.8050
2025-08-03 02:00: 0.1950
2025-08-03 02:00: 0.8050
2025-08-03 03:00: 0.1950
2025-08-03 03:00: 0.8050
2025-08-03 04:00: 0.1950
Trade Summary: Total trades: 20, Buy volume: 7195.77, Sell volume: 11.00, Average price: 0.8625, Price range: 0.0100 - 0.9990
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 570979
Question: Will Trump announce Arthur Laffer to replace Kugler?
Volume: 7206.7701
Price History:
2025-08-03 04:00: 0.8050
2025-08-03 05:00: 0.1950
2025-08-03 05:00: 0.8050
2025-08-03 06:00: 0.1050
2025-08-03 06:00: 0.8950
2025-08-03 07:00: 0.0900
2025-08-03 07:00: 0.9100
2025-08-03 08:00: 0.0900
2025-08-03 08:00: 0.9100
2025-08-03 09:00: 0.0950
2025-08-03 09:00: 0.9050
2025-08-03 10:00: 0.0950
2025-08-03 10:00: 0.9050
2025-08-03 11:00: 0.0950
2025-08-03 11:00: 0.9050
2025-08-03 12:00: 0.1100
2025-08-03 12:00: 0.8900
2025-08-03 13:00: 0.1700
2025-08-03 13:00: 0.8300
2025-08-03 14:00: 0.1600
2025-08-03 14:00: 0.8400
2025-08-03 15:00: 0.1500
2025-08-03 15:00: 0.8500
Trade Summary: Total trades: 1, Buy volume: 10.00, Sell volume: 0.00, Average price: 0.9900, Price range: 0.9900 - 0.9900
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 570979
Question: Will Trump announce Arthur Laffer to replace Kugler?
Volume: 7206.7701
Price History:
2025-08-03 16:00: 0.1500
2025-08-03 16:00: 0.8500
2025-08-03 17:00: 0.1500
2025-08-03 17:00: 0.8500
2025-08-03 18:00: 0.1850
2025-08-03 18:00: 0.8150
2025-08-03 19:00: 0.1800
2025-08-03 19:00: 0.8200
2025-08-03 20:00: 0.1800
2025-08-03 20:00: 0.8200
2025-08-03 21:00: 0.1800
2025-08-03 21:00: 0.8200
2025-08-03 22:00: 0.1700
2025-08-03 22:00: 0.8300
2025-08-03 23:00: 0.1700
2025-08-03 23:00: 0.8300
2025-08-04 00:00: 0.1750
2025-08-04 00:00: 0.8250
2025-08-04 01:00: 0.1550
2025-08-04 01:00: 0.8450
2025-08-04 02:00: 0.1550
2025-08-04 02:00: 0.8450
2025-08-04 03:00: 0.1900
Trade Summary: Total trades: 1, Buy volume: 1.01, Sell volume: 0.00, Average price: 0.9900, Price range: 0.9900 - 0.9900
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 570979
Question: Will Trump announce Arthur Laffer to replace Kugler?
Volume: 7206.7701
Price History:
2025-08-04 03:00: 0.8100
2025-08-04 04:00: 0.1600
2025-08-04 04:00: 0.8400
2025-08-04 05:00: 0.1600
2025-08-04 05:00: 0.8400
2025-08-04 06:00: 0.1600
2025-08-04 06:00: 0.8400
2025-08-04 07:00: 0.1600
2025-08-04 07:00: 0.8400
2025-08-04 08:00: 0.1550
2025-08-04 08:00: 0.8450
2025-08-04 09:00: 0.1500
2025-08-04 09:00: 0.8500
2025-08-04 10:00: 0.1500
2025-08-04 10:00: 0.8500
2025-08-04 11:00: 0.1500
2025-08-04 11:00: 0.8500
2025-08-04 12:00: 0.1450
2025-08-04 12:00: 0.8550
2025-08-04 13:00: 0.1450
2025-08-04 13:00: 0.8550
2025-08-04 14:00: 0.1450
2025-08-04 14:00: 0.8550
Trade Summary: Total trades: 20, Buy volume: 7195.77, Sell volume: 11.00, Average price: 0.8625, Price range: 0.0100 - 0.9990
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 570979
Question: Will Trump announce Arthur Laffer to replace Kugler?
Volume: 7206.7701
Price History:
2025-08-04 15:00: 0.1650
2025-08-04 15:00: 0.8350
2025-08-04 16:00: 0.0350
2025-08-04 16:00: 0.9650
2025-08-04 17:00: 0.0355
2025-08-04 17:00: 0.9645
2025-08-04 18:00: 0.0360
2025-08-04 18:00: 0.9640
2025-08-04 19:00: 0.0325
2025-08-04 19:00: 0.9675
2025-08-04 20:00: 0.0335
2025-08-04 20:00: 0.9665
2025-08-04 21:00: 0.0335
2025-08-04 21:00: 0.9665
2025-08-04 22:00: 0.0335
2025-08-04 22:00: 0.9665
2025-08-04 23:00: 0.0335
2025-08-04 23:00: 0.9665
2025-08-05 00:00: 0.0335
2025-08-05 00:00: 0.9665
2025-08-05 01:00: 0.0335
2025-08-05 01:00: 0.9665
2025-08-05 02:00: 0.0335
Trade Summary: Total trades: 20, Buy volume: 7195.77, Sell volume: 11.00, Average price: 0.8625, Price range: 0.0100 - 0.9990
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 570979
Question: Will Trump announce Arthur Laffer to replace Kugler?
Volume: 7206.7701
Price History:
2025-08-05 02:00: 0.9665
2025-08-05 03:00: 0.0335
2025-08-05 03:00: 0.9665
2025-08-05 04:00: 0.0335
2025-08-05 04:00: 0.9665
2025-08-05 05:00: 0.0335
2025-08-05 05:00: 0.9665
2025-08-05 06:00: 0.0335
2025-08-05 06:00: 0.9665
2025-08-05 07:00: 0.0330
2025-08-05 07:00: 0.9670
2025-08-05 08:00: 0.0335
2025-08-05 08:00: 0.9665
2025-08-05 09:00: 0.0330
2025-08-05 09:00: 0.9670
2025-08-05 10:00: 0.0340
2025-08-05 10:00: 0.9660
2025-08-05 11:00: 0.0360
2025-08-05 11:00: 0.9640
2025-08-05 12:00: 0.0375
2025-08-05 12:00: 0.9625
2025-08-05 13:00: 0.0335
2025-08-05 13:00: 0.9665
Trade Summary: Total trades: 3, Buy volume: 32.32, Sell volume: 10.00, Average price: 0.6550, Price range: 0.0270 - 0.9690
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 570979
Question: Will Trump announce Arthur Laffer to replace Kugler?
Volume: 7206.7701
Price History:
2025-08-05 14:00: 0.0335
2025-08-05 14:00: 0.9665
2025-08-05 15:00: 0.0355
2025-08-05 15:00: 0.9645
2025-08-05 16:00: 0.0325
2025-08-05 16:00: 0.9675
2025-08-05 17:00: 0.0325
2025-08-05 17:00: 0.9675
2025-08-05 18:00: 0.0320
2025-08-05 18:00: 0.9680
2025-08-05 19:00: 0.0320
2025-08-05 19:00: 0.9680
2025-08-05 20:00: 0.0325
2025-08-05 20:00: 0.9675
2025-08-05 21:00: 0.0325
2025-08-05 21:00: 0.9675
2025-08-05 22:00: 0.0305
2025-08-05 22:00: 0.9695
2025-08-05 23:00: 0.0300
2025-08-05 23:00: 0.9700
2025-08-06 00:00: 0.0305
2025-08-06 00:00: 0.9695
2025-08-06 01:00: 0.0305
Trade Summary: Total trades: 20, Buy volume: 7195.77, Sell volume: 11.00, Average price: 0.8625, Price range: 0.0100 - 0.9990
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 570979
Question: Will Trump announce Arthur Laffer to replace Kugler?
Volume: 7206.7701
Price History:
2025-08-06 01:00: 0.9695
2025-08-06 02:00: 0.0305
2025-08-06 02:00: 0.9695
2025-08-06 03:00: 0.0305
2025-08-06 03:00: 0.9695
2025-08-06 04:00: 0.0300
2025-08-06 04:00: 0.9700
2025-08-06 05:00: 0.0300
2025-08-06 05:00: 0.9700
2025-08-06 06:00: 0.0310
2025-08-06 06:00: 0.9690
2025-08-06 07:00: 0.0310
2025-08-06 07:00: 0.9690
2025-08-06 08:00: 0.0310
2025-08-06 08:00: 0.9690
2025-08-06 09:00: 0.0305
2025-08-06 09:00: 0.9695
2025-08-06 10:00: 0.0310
2025-08-06 10:00: 0.9690
2025-08-06 11:00: 0.0310
2025-08-06 11:00: 0.9690
2025-08-06 12:00: 0.0305
2025-08-06 12:00: 0.9695
Trade Summary: Total trades: 20, Buy volume: 7195.77, Sell volume: 11.00, Average price: 0.8625, Price range: 0.0100 - 0.9990
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 570979
Question: Will Trump announce Arthur Laffer to replace Kugler?
Volume: 7206.7701
Price History:
2025-08-06 13:00: 0.0310
2025-08-06 13:00: 0.9690
2025-08-06 14:00: 0.0305
2025-08-06 14:00: 0.9695
2025-08-06 15:00: 0.0305
2025-08-06 15:00: 0.9695
2025-08-06 16:00: 0.9690
2025-08-06 16:00: 0.0310
2025-08-06 17:00: 0.9695
2025-08-06 17:00: 0.0305
2025-08-06 18:00: 0.0305
2025-08-06 18:00: 0.9695
2025-08-06 19:00: 0.0305
2025-08-06 19:00: 0.9695
2025-08-06 20:00: 0.9695
2025-08-06 20:00: 0.0305
2025-08-06 21:00: 0.9695
2025-08-06 21:00: 0.0305
2025-08-06 22:00: 0.9690
2025-08-06 22:00: 0.0310
2025-08-06 23:00: 0.9695
2025-08-06 23:00: 0.0305
2025-08-07 00:00: 0.0310
Trade Summary: Total trades: 1, Buy volume: 10.00, Sell volume: 0.00, Average price: 0.9770, Price range: 0.9770 - 0.9770
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 570979
Question: Will Trump announce Arthur Laffer to replace Kugler?
Volume: 7206.7701
Price History:
2025-08-07 00:00: 0.9690
2025-08-07 01:00: 0.0310
2025-08-07 01:00: 0.9690
2025-08-07 02:00: 0.0310
2025-08-07 02:00: 0.9690
2025-08-07 03:00: 0.0310
2025-08-07 03:00: 0.9690
2025-08-07 04:00: 0.0310
2025-08-07 04:00: 0.9690
2025-08-07 05:00: 0.9685
2025-08-07 05:00: 0.0315
2025-08-07 06:00: 0.0315
2025-08-07 06:00: 0.9685
2025-08-07 07:00: 0.9685
2025-08-07 07:00: 0.0315
2025-08-07 08:00: 0.9685
2025-08-07 08:00: 0.0315
2025-08-07 09:00: 0.9685
2025-08-07 09:00: 0.0315
2025-08-07 10:00: 0.9685
2025-08-07 10:00: 0.0315
2025-08-07 11:00: 0.9685
2025-08-07 11:00: 0.0315
Trade Summary: Total trades: 20, Buy volume: 7195.77, Sell volume: 11.00, Average price: 0.8625, Price range: 0.0100 - 0.9990
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 570979
Question: Will Trump announce Arthur Laffer to replace Kugler?
Volume: 7206.7701
Price History:
2025-08-07 12:00: 0.0315
2025-08-07 12:00: 0.9685
2025-08-07 13:00: 0.9690
2025-08-07 13:00: 0.0310
2025-08-07 14:00: 0.0315
2025-08-07 14:00: 0.9685
2025-08-07 15:00: 0.0315
2025-08-07 15:00: 0.9685
2025-08-07 16:00: 0.9950
2025-08-07 16:00: 0.0050
2025-08-07 17:00: 0.9990
2025-08-07 17:00: 0.0010
2025-08-07 18:00: 0.0010
2025-08-07 18:00: 0.9990
2025-08-07 19:00: 0.9990
2025-08-07 19:00: 0.0010
2025-08-07 20:00: 0.0010
2025-08-07 20:00: 0.9990
2025-08-07 21:00: 0.0005
2025-08-07 21:00: 0.9995
2025-08-07 22:00: 0.9995
2025-08-07 22:00: 0.0005
2025-08-07 23:00: 0.9995
Trade Summary: Total trades: 12, Buy volume: 7122.44, Sell volume: 0.00, Average price: 0.9940, Price range: 0.9785 - 0.9990
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 501694
Question: Will Republicans have 49 or fewer seats in Senate after election?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 1537159.776966
Price History:
2024-05-21 14:00: 0.4450
2024-05-21 20:00: 0.8950
2024-05-22 03:00: 0.1050
2024-05-22 09:00: 0.8950
2024-05-22 16:00: 0.1050
2024-05-22 22:00: 0.8950
2024-05-23 05:00: 0.0950
2024-05-23 11:00: 0.9050
2024-05-23 18:00: 0.0950
2024-05-24 00:00: 0.9050
2024-05-24 07:00: 0.0950
2024-05-24 13:00: 0.9050
2024-05-24 20:00: 0.0950
2024-05-25 02:00: 0.9050
2024-05-25 09:00: 0.0950
2024-05-25 15:00: 0.9050
2024-05-25 22:00: 0.0950
2024-05-26 04:00: 0.9050
2024-05-26 11:00: 0.0950
2024-05-26 17:00: 0.9050
2024-05-27 00:00: 0.0950
2024-05-27 06:00: 0.9050
2024-05-27 13:00: 0.0950
2024-05-27 19:00: 0.9050
2024-05-28 02:00: 0.0950
2024-05-28 08:00: 0.9050
2024-05-28 15:00: 0.0950
2024-05-28 21:00: 0.9050
2024-05-29 04:00: 0.0950
2024-05-29 10:00: 0.9050
2024-05-29 17:00: 0.0950
2024-05-29 23:00: 0.9050
2024-05-30 06:00: 0.0950
2024-05-30 12:00: 0.9050
2024-05-30 19:00: 0.0950
2024-05-31 01:00: 0.9050
2024-05-31 08:00: 0.0950
2024-05-31 14:00: 0.9050
2024-05-31 21:00: 0.0950
2024-06-01 03:00: 0.9050
2024-06-01 10:00: 0.0850
2024-06-01 16:00: 0.9150
2024-06-01 23:00: 0.0850
2024-06-02 05:00: 0.9150
2024-06-02 12:00: 0.0850
2024-06-02 18:00: 0.9150
2024-06-03 01:00: 0.0850
2024-06-03 07:00: 0.9150
2024-06-03 14:00: 0.0850
2024-06-03 20:00: 0.9150
Trade Summary: No trades available

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 501694
Question: Will Republicans have 49 or fewer seats in Senate after election?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 1537159.776966
Price History:
2024-06-04 18:00: 0.0850
2024-06-05 00:00: 0.9150
2024-06-05 07:00: 0.0850
2024-06-05 13:00: 0.9150
2024-06-05 20:00: 0.0850
2024-06-06 02:00: 0.9150
2024-06-06 09:00: 0.0850
2024-06-06 15:00: 0.9150
2024-06-06 22:00: 0.0850
2024-06-07 04:00: 0.9150
2024-06-07 11:00: 0.0850
2024-06-07 17:00: 0.9150
2024-06-08 00:00: 0.0850
2024-06-08 06:00: 0.9150
2024-06-08 13:00: 0.0850
2024-06-08 19:00: 0.9150
2024-06-09 02:00: 0.0850
2024-06-09 08:00: 0.9150
2024-06-09 15:00: 0.0850
2024-06-09 21:00: 0.9150
2024-06-10 04:00: 0.0850
2024-06-10 10:00: 0.9150
2024-06-10 17:00: 0.0850
2024-06-10 23:00: 0.9150
2024-06-11 06:00: 0.0850
2024-06-11 12:00: 0.9150
2024-06-11 19:00: 0.0850
2024-06-12 01:00: 0.9150
2024-06-12 08:00: 0.0850
2024-06-12 14:00: 0.9150
2024-06-12 21:00: 0.0850
2024-06-13 03:00: 0.9150
2024-06-13 10:00: 0.0850
2024-06-13 16:00: 0.9150
2024-06-13 23:00: 0.0850
2024-06-14 05:00: 0.9150
2024-06-14 12:00: 0.0850
2024-06-14 18:00: 0.9150
2024-06-15 01:00: 0.0850
2024-06-15 07:00: 0.9150
2024-06-15 14:00: 0.0850
2024-06-15 20:00: 0.9150
2024-06-16 03:00: 0.0850
2024-06-16 09:00: 0.9150
2024-06-16 16:00: 0.0850
2024-06-16 22:00: 0.9150
2024-06-17 05:00: 0.0850
2024-06-17 11:00: 0.9150
2024-06-17 18:00: 0.0850
2024-06-18 00:00: 0.9150
Trade Summary: No trades available

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 501694
Question: Will Republicans have 49 or fewer seats in Senate after election?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 1537159.776966
Price History:
2024-06-18 22:00: 0.0850
2024-06-19 04:00: 0.9150
2024-06-19 11:00: 0.0850
2024-06-19 17:00: 0.9150
2024-06-20 00:00: 0.0850
2024-06-20 06:00: 0.9150
2024-06-20 13:00: 0.0850
2024-06-20 19:00: 0.9150
2024-06-21 02:00: 0.0850
2024-06-21 08:00: 0.9150
2024-06-21 15:00: 0.0850
2024-06-21 21:00: 0.9150
2024-06-22 04:00: 0.0850
2024-06-22 10:00: 0.9150
2024-06-22 17:00: 0.0850
2024-06-22 23:00: 0.9150
2024-06-23 06:00: 0.0850
2024-06-23 12:00: 0.9150
2024-06-23 19:00: 0.0850
2024-06-24 01:00: 0.9150
2024-06-24 08:00: 0.0850
2024-06-24 14:00: 0.9150
2024-06-24 21:00: 0.0850
2024-06-25 03:00: 0.9150
2024-06-25 10:00: 0.0850
2024-06-25 16:00: 0.9150
2024-06-25 23:00: 0.0850
2024-06-26 05:00: 0.9150
2024-06-26 12:00: 0.0850
2024-06-26 18:00: 0.9150
2024-06-27 01:00: 0.0850
2024-06-27 07:00: 0.9150
2024-06-27 14:00: 0.0850
2024-06-27 20:00: 0.9150
2024-06-28 03:00: 0.0850
2024-06-28 09:00: 0.9150
2024-06-28 16:00: 0.0850
2024-06-28 22:00: 0.9150
2024-06-29 05:00: 0.0850
2024-06-29 11:00: 0.9150
2024-06-29 18:00: 0.0850
2024-06-30 00:00: 0.9150
2024-06-30 07:00: 0.0850
2024-06-30 13:00: 0.9150
2024-06-30 20:00: 0.0850
2024-07-01 02:00: 0.9250
2024-07-01 09:00: 0.0750
2024-07-01 15:00: 0.9250
2024-07-01 22:00: 0.0650
2024-07-02 04:00: 0.9350
Trade Summary: No trades available

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 501694
Question: Will Republicans have 49 or fewer seats in Senate after election?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 1537159.776966
Price History:
2024-07-03 02:00: 0.0550
2024-07-03 08:00: 0.9450
2024-07-03 15:00: 0.0550
2024-07-03 21:00: 0.9450
2024-07-04 04:00: 0.0550
2024-07-04 10:00: 0.9450
2024-07-04 17:00: 0.0550
2024-07-04 23:00: 0.9450
2024-07-05 06:00: 0.0550
2024-07-05 12:00: 0.9450
2024-07-05 19:00: 0.0550
2024-07-06 01:00: 0.9450
2024-07-06 08:00: 0.0550
2024-07-06 14:00: 0.9450
2024-07-06 21:00: 0.0550
2024-07-07 03:00: 0.9450
2024-07-07 10:00: 0.0550
2024-07-07 16:00: 0.9450
2024-07-07 23:00: 0.0550
2024-07-08 05:00: 0.9450
2024-07-08 12:00: 0.0550
2024-07-08 18:00: 0.9450
2024-07-09 01:00: 0.0550
2024-07-09 07:00: 0.9450
2024-07-09 14:00: 0.0550
2024-07-09 20:00: 0.9450
2024-07-10 03:00: 0.0550
2024-07-10 09:00: 0.9450
2024-07-10 16:00: 0.0550
2024-07-10 22:00: 0.9450
2024-07-11 05:00: 0.0550
2024-07-11 11:00: 0.9450
2024-07-11 18:00: 0.0550
2024-07-12 00:00: 0.9450
2024-07-12 07:00: 0.0550
2024-07-12 13:00: 0.9450
2024-07-12 20:00: 0.0550
2024-07-13 02:00: 0.9450
2024-07-13 09:00: 0.0550
2024-07-13 15:00: 0.9450
2024-07-13 22:00: 0.0550
2024-07-14 04:00: 0.9450
2024-07-14 11:00: 0.0550
2024-07-14 17:00: 0.9500
2024-07-15 00:00: 0.0500
2024-07-15 06:00: 0.9500
2024-07-15 13:00: 0.0500
2024-07-15 19:00: 0.9500
2024-07-16 02:00: 0.0500
2024-07-16 08:00: 0.9500
Trade Summary: No trades available

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 501694
Question: Will Republicans have 49 or fewer seats in Senate after election?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 1537159.776966
Price History:
2024-07-17 06:00: 0.0500
2024-07-17 12:00: 0.9450
2024-07-17 19:00: 0.0600
2024-07-18 01:00: 0.9400
2024-07-18 08:00: 0.0600
2024-07-18 14:00: 0.9400
2024-07-18 21:00: 0.0600
2024-07-19 03:00: 0.9450
2024-07-19 10:00: 0.0550
2024-07-19 16:00: 0.9450
2024-07-19 23:00: 0.0550
2024-07-20 05:00: 0.9450
2024-07-20 12:00: 0.0550
2024-07-20 18:00: 0.9450
2024-07-21 01:00: 0.0550
2024-07-21 07:00: 0.9450
2024-07-21 15:00: 0.0550
2024-07-21 21:00: 0.9450
2024-07-22 04:00: 0.0550
2024-07-22 10:00: 0.9450
2024-07-22 17:00: 0.0600
2024-07-22 23:00: 0.9400
2024-07-23 06:00: 0.0600
2024-07-23 12:00: 0.9400
2024-07-23 19:00: 0.0650
2024-07-24 01:00: 0.9350
2024-07-24 08:00: 0.0650
2024-07-24 14:00: 0.9350
2024-07-24 21:00: 0.0650
2024-07-25 03:00: 0.9350
2024-07-25 10:00: 0.0600
2024-07-25 16:00: 0.9400
2024-07-25 23:00: 0.0600
2024-07-26 05:00: 0.9400
2024-07-26 12:00: 0.0600
2024-07-26 18:00: 0.9400
2024-07-27 01:00: 0.0600
2024-07-27 07:00: 0.9400
2024-07-27 14:00: 0.0600
2024-07-27 20:00: 0.9400
2024-07-28 03:00: 0.0600
2024-07-28 09:00: 0.9400
2024-07-28 16:00: 0.0600
2024-07-28 22:00: 0.9400
2024-07-29 05:00: 0.0600
2024-07-29 11:00: 0.9400
2024-07-29 18:00: 0.0600
2024-07-30 00:00: 0.9400
2024-07-30 07:00: 0.0600
2024-07-30 13:00: 0.9400
Trade Summary: No trades available

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 501694
Question: Will Republicans have 49 or fewer seats in Senate after election?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 1537159.776966
Price History:
2024-07-31 11:00: 0.0600
2024-07-31 17:00: 0.9400
2024-08-01 00:00: 0.0650
2024-08-01 06:00: 0.9350
2024-08-01 13:00: 0.0650
2024-08-01 19:00: 0.9250
2024-08-02 02:00: 0.0850
2024-08-02 08:00: 0.9150
2024-08-02 15:00: 0.0850
2024-08-02 21:00: 0.9150
2024-08-03 04:00: 0.0850
2024-08-03 10:00: 0.9150
2024-08-03 17:00: 0.0850
2024-08-03 23:00: 0.9150
2024-08-04 06:00: 0.0850
2024-08-04 12:00: 0.9150
2024-08-04 19:00: 0.0850
2024-08-05 01:00: 0.9150
2024-08-05 08:00: 0.0850
2024-08-05 14:00: 0.9150
2024-08-05 21:00: 0.0850
2024-08-06 03:00: 0.9150
2024-08-06 10:00: 0.0850
2024-08-06 16:00: 0.9150
2024-08-06 23:00: 0.0900
2024-08-07 05:00: 0.9100
2024-08-07 12:00: 0.0900
2024-08-07 18:00: 0.9100
2024-08-08 01:00: 0.0900
2024-08-08 07:00: 0.9100
2024-08-08 14:00: 0.0900
2024-08-08 20:00: 0.9100
2024-08-09 03:00: 0.0900
2024-08-09 09:00: 0.9050
2024-08-09 16:00: 0.0950
2024-08-09 22:00: 0.9050
2024-08-10 05:00: 0.0950
2024-08-10 11:00: 0.8950
2024-08-10 18:00: 0.1050
2024-08-11 00:00: 0.8950
2024-08-11 07:00: 0.1050
2024-08-11 13:00: 0.8950
2024-08-11 20:00: 0.1050
2024-08-12 02:00: 0.8950
2024-08-12 09:00: 0.1050
2024-08-12 15:00: 0.8950
2024-08-12 22:00: 0.1050
2024-08-13 04:00: 0.8950
2024-08-13 11:00: 0.1050
2024-08-13 17:00: 0.8950
Trade Summary: No trades available

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 501694
Question: Will Republicans have 49 or fewer seats in Senate after election?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 1537159.776966
Price History:
2024-08-14 15:00: 0.1050
2024-08-14 21:00: 0.8950
2024-08-15 04:00: 0.1050
2024-08-15 10:00: 0.8950
2024-08-15 17:00: 0.1050
2024-08-15 23:00: 0.8950
2024-08-16 06:00: 0.0950
2024-08-16 12:00: 0.9050
2024-08-16 19:00: 0.0950
2024-08-17 01:00: 0.9050
2024-08-17 08:00: 0.1150
2024-08-17 14:00: 0.8900
2024-08-17 21:00: 0.1100
2024-08-18 03:00: 0.8950
2024-08-18 10:00: 0.1100
2024-08-18 16:00: 0.8900
2024-08-18 23:00: 0.1100
2024-08-19 05:00: 0.8950
2024-08-19 12:00: 0.1050
2024-08-19 18:00: 0.8950
2024-08-20 01:00: 0.1050
2024-08-20 07:00: 0.8950
2024-08-20 14:00: 0.1050
2024-08-20 20:00: 0.8950
2024-08-21 03:00: 0.1050
2024-08-21 09:00: 0.9000
2024-08-21 16:00: 0.1000
2024-08-21 22:00: 0.9050
2024-08-22 05:00: 0.0950
2024-08-22 11:00: 0.9050
2024-08-22 18:00: 0.0950
2024-08-23 00:00: 0.9050
2024-08-23 07:00: 0.0950
2024-08-23 13:00: 0.9050
2024-08-23 20:00: 0.0950
2024-08-24 02:00: 0.9050
2024-08-24 09:00: 0.0950
2024-08-24 15:00: 0.9000
2024-08-24 22:00: 0.1050
2024-08-25 04:00: 0.8950
2024-08-25 11:00: 0.1050
2024-08-25 17:00: 0.8950
2024-08-26 00:00: 0.1200
2024-08-26 06:00: 0.8750
2024-08-26 13:00: 0.1250
2024-08-26 19:00: 0.8800
2024-08-27 02:00: 0.1200
2024-08-27 08:00: 0.8750
2024-08-27 15:00: 0.1250
2024-08-27 21:00: 0.8750
Trade Summary: No trades available

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 501694
Question: Will Republicans have 49 or fewer seats in Senate after election?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 1537159.776966
Price History:
2024-08-28 19:00: 0.1250
2024-08-29 01:00: 0.8750
2024-08-29 08:00: 0.1250
2024-08-29 14:00: 0.8750
2024-08-29 21:00: 0.1250
2024-08-30 03:00: 0.8750
2024-08-30 10:00: 0.1250
2024-08-30 16:00: 0.8750
2024-08-30 23:00: 0.1250
2024-08-31 05:00: 0.8750
2024-08-31 12:00: 0.1250
2024-08-31 18:00: 0.8750
2024-09-01 01:00: 0.1350
2024-09-01 07:00: 0.8650
2024-09-01 14:00: 0.1350
2024-09-01 20:00: 0.8700
2024-09-02 03:00: 0.1300
2024-09-02 09:00: 0.8700
2024-09-02 16:00: 0.1300
2024-09-02 22:00: 0.8700
2024-09-03 05:00: 0.1300
2024-09-03 11:00: 0.8700
2024-09-03 18:00: 0.1300
2024-09-04 00:00: 0.8700
2024-09-04 07:00: 0.1300
2024-09-04 13:00: 0.8700
2024-09-04 20:00: 0.1300
2024-09-05 02:00: 0.8700
2024-09-05 09:00: 0.1300
2024-09-05 15:00: 0.8700
2024-09-05 22:00: 0.1300
2024-09-06 04:00: 0.8700
2024-09-06 11:00: 0.1300
2024-09-06 17:00: 0.8700
2024-09-07 00:00: 0.1300
2024-09-07 06:00: 0.8700
2024-09-07 13:00: 0.1300
2024-09-07 19:00: 0.8700
2024-09-08 02:00: 0.1350
2024-09-08 08:00: 0.8650
2024-09-08 15:00: 0.1350
2024-09-08 21:00: 0.8700
2024-09-09 04:00: 0.1300
2024-09-09 10:00: 0.8700
2024-09-09 17:00: 0.1300
2024-09-09 23:00: 0.8700
2024-09-10 06:00: 0.1300
2024-09-10 12:00: 0.8700
2024-09-10 19:00: 0.1300
2024-09-11 01:00: 0.8700
Trade Summary: No trades available

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 501694
Question: Will Republicans have 49 or fewer seats in Senate after election?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 1537159.776966
Price History:
2024-09-11 23:00: 0.1250
2024-09-12 05:00: 0.8750
2024-09-12 12:00: 0.1250
2024-09-12 18:00: 0.8750
2024-09-13 01:00: 0.1250
2024-09-13 07:00: 0.8750
2024-09-13 14:00: 0.1250
2024-09-13 20:00: 0.8750
2024-09-14 03:00: 0.1250
2024-09-14 09:00: 0.8750
2024-09-14 16:00: 0.1250
2024-09-14 22:00: 0.8750
2024-09-15 05:00: 0.1250
2024-09-15 11:00: 0.8750
2024-09-15 18:00: 0.1250
2024-09-16 00:00: 0.8750
2024-09-16 07:00: 0.1250
2024-09-16 13:00: 0.8750
2024-09-16 20:00: 0.1250
2024-09-17 02:00: 0.8750
2024-09-17 09:00: 0.1250
2024-09-17 15:00: 0.8750
2024-09-17 22:00: 0.1250
2024-09-18 04:00: 0.8750
2024-09-18 11:00: 0.1250
2024-09-18 17:00: 0.8750
2024-09-19 00:00: 0.1250
2024-09-19 06:00: 0.8750
2024-09-19 13:00: 0.1250
2024-09-19 19:00: 0.8750
2024-09-20 02:00: 0.1250
2024-09-20 08:00: 0.8750
2024-09-20 15:00: 0.1250
2024-09-20 21:00: 0.8750
2024-09-21 04:00: 0.1250
2024-09-21 10:00: 0.8750
2024-09-21 17:00: 0.1250
2024-09-21 23:00: 0.8750
2024-09-22 06:00: 0.1250
2024-09-22 12:00: 0.8750
2024-09-22 19:00: 0.1250
2024-09-23 01:00: 0.8750
2024-09-23 08:00: 0.1250
2024-09-23 14:00: 0.8750
2024-09-23 21:00: 0.1250
2024-09-24 03:00: 0.8750
2024-09-24 10:00: 0.1250
2024-09-24 16:00: 0.8750
2024-09-24 23:00: 0.1250
2024-09-25 05:00: 0.8750
Trade Summary: No trades available

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 501694
Question: Will Republicans have 49 or fewer seats in Senate after election?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 1537159.776966
Price History:
2024-09-26 03:00: 0.1250
2024-09-26 09:00: 0.8750
2024-09-26 16:00: 0.1250
2024-09-26 22:00: 0.8750
2024-09-27 05:00: 0.1250
2024-09-27 11:00: 0.8750
2024-09-27 18:00: 0.1200
2024-09-28 00:00: 0.8800
2024-09-28 07:00: 0.1150
2024-09-28 13:00: 0.8850
2024-09-28 20:00: 0.1150
2024-09-29 02:00: 0.8850
2024-09-29 09:00: 0.1150
2024-09-29 15:00: 0.8850
2024-09-29 22:00: 0.1150
2024-09-30 04:00: 0.8850
2024-09-30 11:00: 0.1150
2024-09-30 17:00: 0.8900
2024-10-01 00:00: 0.1100
2024-10-01 06:00: 0.8950
2024-10-01 13:00: 0.1050
2024-10-01 19:00: 0.8950
2024-10-02 02:00: 0.1050
2024-10-02 08:00: 0.8950
2024-10-02 14:00: 0.1050
2024-10-02 20:00: 0.8850
2024-10-03 03:00: 0.1050
2024-10-03 09:00: 0.8950
2024-10-03 16:00: 0.1150
2024-10-03 22:00: 0.8850
2024-10-04 05:00: 0.1100
2024-10-04 11:00: 0.8900
2024-10-04 18:00: 0.1100
2024-10-05 00:00: 0.8900
2024-10-05 07:00: 0.1100
2024-10-05 13:00: 0.8900
2024-10-05 20:00: 0.1100
2024-10-06 02:00: 0.8900
2024-10-06 09:00: 0.1100
2024-10-06 15:00: 0.8950
2024-10-06 22:00: 0.1050
2024-10-07 04:00: 0.8950
2024-10-07 11:00: 0.1050
2024-10-07 17:00: 0.8950
2024-10-08 00:00: 0.1000
2024-10-08 06:00: 0.8950
2024-10-08 13:00: 0.1050
2024-10-08 19:00: 0.8950
2024-10-09 02:00: 0.0950
2024-10-09 08:00: 0.9050
Trade Summary: No trades available

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 501694
Question: Will Republicans have 49 or fewer seats in Senate after election?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 1537159.776966
Price History:
2024-10-10 06:00: 0.0950
2024-10-10 12:00: 0.9050
2024-10-10 19:00: 0.0950
2024-10-11 01:00: 0.9050
2024-10-11 08:00: 0.0950
2024-10-11 14:00: 0.9050
2024-10-11 21:00: 0.0950
2024-10-12 03:00: 0.9050
2024-10-12 10:00: 0.0950
2024-10-12 16:00: 0.9050
2024-10-12 23:00: 0.0950
2024-10-13 05:00: 0.9050
2024-10-13 12:00: 0.0950
2024-10-13 18:00: 0.9050
2024-10-14 01:00: 0.0900
2024-10-14 07:00: 0.9150
2024-10-14 14:00: 0.0850
2024-10-14 20:00: 0.9150
2024-10-15 03:00: 0.0850
2024-10-15 09:00: 0.9150
2024-10-15 16:00: 0.0850
2024-10-15 22:00: 0.9150
2024-10-16 05:00: 0.0850
2024-10-16 11:00: 0.9150
2024-10-16 18:00: 0.0850
2024-10-17 00:00: 0.9150
2024-10-17 07:00: 0.0850
2024-10-17 13:00: 0.9250
2024-10-17 20:00: 0.0750
2024-10-18 02:00: 0.9250
2024-10-18 09:00: 0.0750
2024-10-18 15:00: 0.9250
2024-10-18 22:00: 0.0850
2024-10-19 04:00: 0.9150
2024-10-19 11:00: 0.0850
2024-10-19 17:00: 0.9150
2024-10-20 00:00: 0.0850
2024-10-20 06:00: 0.9150
2024-10-20 13:00: 0.0850
2024-10-20 19:00: 0.9150
2024-10-21 02:00: 0.0850
2024-10-21 08:00: 0.9150
2024-10-21 15:00: 0.0750
2024-10-21 21:00: 0.9150
2024-10-22 04:00: 0.0800
2024-10-22 10:00: 0.9200
2024-10-22 17:00: 0.0750
2024-10-22 23:00: 0.9250
2024-10-23 06:00: 0.0750
2024-10-23 12:00: 0.9300
Trade Summary: No trades available

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 501694
Question: Will Republicans have 49 or fewer seats in Senate after election?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 1537159.776966
Price History:
2024-10-24 10:00: 0.0650
2024-10-24 16:00: 0.9250
2024-10-24 23:00: 0.0750
2024-10-25 05:00: 0.9250
2024-10-25 12:00: 0.0700
2024-10-25 18:00: 0.9300
2024-10-26 01:00: 0.0750
2024-10-26 07:00: 0.9250
2024-10-26 14:00: 0.0750
2024-10-26 20:00: 0.9250
2024-10-27 03:00: 0.0700
2024-10-27 09:00: 0.9300
2024-10-27 16:00: 0.0700
2024-10-27 22:00: 0.9350
2024-10-28 05:00: 0.0700
2024-10-28 11:00: 0.9300
2024-10-28 18:00: 0.0950
2024-10-29 00:00: 0.8950
2024-10-29 07:00: 0.1050
2024-10-29 13:00: 0.8900
2024-10-29 20:00: 0.1100
2024-10-30 02:00: 0.8900
2024-10-30 09:00: 0.1100
2024-10-30 15:00: 0.8950
2024-10-30 22:00: 0.1050
2024-10-31 04:00: 0.8950
2024-10-31 11:00: 0.1050
2024-10-31 17:00: 0.8950
2024-11-01 00:00: 0.1050
2024-11-01 06:00: 0.8950
2024-11-01 13:00: 0.1050
2024-11-01 19:00: 0.8950
2024-11-02 02:00: 0.1050
2024-11-02 08:00: 0.8950
2024-11-02 15:00: 0.1050
2024-11-02 21:00: 0.8700
2024-11-03 03:00: 0.1400
2024-11-03 09:00: 0.8550
2024-11-03 16:00: 0.1250
2024-11-03 22:00: 0.8750
2024-11-04 05:00: 0.1250
2024-11-04 11:00: 0.8750
2024-11-04 18:00: 0.1250
2024-11-05 00:00: 0.8750
2024-11-05 07:00: 0.1250
2024-11-05 13:00: 0.8800
2024-11-05 21:00: 0.0300
2024-11-06 03:00: 0.9950
2024-11-06 10:00: 0.0045
2024-11-06 16:00: 0.9995
Trade Summary: No trades available

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 501694
Question: Will Republicans have 49 or fewer seats in Senate after election?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 1537159.776966
Price History:
2024-11-07 14:00: 0.0005
2024-11-07 20:00: 0.9995
2024-11-08 03:00: 0.0005
2024-11-08 09:00: 0.9995
2024-11-08 16:00: 0.0005
2024-11-08 22:00: 0.9995
2024-11-09 05:00: 0.0005
2024-11-09 11:00: 0.9995
2024-11-09 18:00: 0.0005
2024-11-10 00:00: 0.9995
2024-11-10 07:00: 0.0005
2024-11-10 13:00: 0.9995
2024-11-10 20:00: 0.0005
2024-11-11 02:00: 0.9995
2024-11-11 09:00: 0.0005
2024-11-11 15:00: 0.9995
2024-11-11 22:00: 0.0005
2024-11-12 04:00: 0.9995
2024-11-12 11:00: 0.0005
2024-11-12 17:00: 0.9995
2024-11-13 00:00: 0.0005
2024-11-13 06:00: 0.9995
2024-11-13 13:00: 0.0005
2024-11-13 19:00: 0.9995
2024-11-14 02:00: 0.0005
2024-11-14 08:00: 0.9995
2024-11-14 15:00: 0.0005
2024-11-14 21:00: 0.9995
2024-11-15 04:00: 0.0005
2024-11-15 10:00: 0.9995
2024-11-15 17:00: 0.0005
2024-11-15 23:00: 0.9995
2024-11-16 06:00: 0.0005
2024-11-16 12:00: 0.9995
2024-11-16 19:00: 0.0005
2024-11-17 01:00: 0.9995
2024-11-17 08:00: 0.0005
2024-11-17 14:00: 0.9995
2024-11-17 21:00: 0.0005
2024-11-18 03:00: 0.9995
2024-11-18 10:00: 0.0005
2024-11-18 16:00: 0.9995
2024-11-18 23:00: 0.0005
2024-11-19 05:00: 0.9995
2024-11-19 12:00: 0.0005
2024-11-19 18:00: 0.9995
2024-11-20 01:00: 0.0005
2024-11-20 07:00: 0.9995
2024-11-20 14:00: 0.0005
2024-11-20 20:00: 0.9995
Trade Summary: No trades available

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 570980
Question: Will Trump announce Larry Kudlow to replace Kugler?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 6504.32
Price History:
2025-08-01 18:00: 0.1000
2025-08-01 18:00: 0.9000
2025-08-01 19:00: 0.1000
2025-08-01 19:00: 0.9000
2025-08-01 20:00: 0.1000
2025-08-01 20:00: 0.9000
2025-08-01 21:00: 0.0950
2025-08-01 21:00: 0.9050
2025-08-01 22:00: 0.0950
2025-08-01 22:00: 0.9050
2025-08-01 23:00: 0.0950
2025-08-01 23:00: 0.9050
2025-08-02 00:00: 0.0950
2025-08-02 00:00: 0.9050
2025-08-02 01:00: 0.0950
2025-08-02 01:00: 0.9050
2025-08-02 02:00: 0.0950
2025-08-02 02:00: 0.9050
2025-08-02 03:00: 0.0950
2025-08-02 03:00: 0.9050
2025-08-02 04:00: 0.0950
2025-08-02 04:00: 0.9050
2025-08-02 05:00: 0.0950
Trade Summary: Total trades: 12, Buy volume: 6484.32, Sell volume: 20.00, Average price: 0.8277, Price range: 0.0120 - 0.9987

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 570980
Question: Will Trump announce Larry Kudlow to replace Kugler?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 6504.32
Price History:
2025-08-02 05:00: 0.9050
2025-08-02 06:00: 0.0950
2025-08-02 06:00: 0.9050
2025-08-02 07:00: 0.0950
2025-08-02 07:00: 0.9050
2025-08-02 08:00: 0.0950
2025-08-02 08:00: 0.9050
2025-08-02 09:00: 0.0950
2025-08-02 09:00: 0.9050
2025-08-02 10:00: 0.0950
2025-08-02 10:00: 0.9050
2025-08-02 11:00: 0.0950
2025-08-02 11:00: 0.9050
2025-08-02 12:00: 0.0950
2025-08-02 12:00: 0.9050
2025-08-02 13:00: 0.0950
2025-08-02 13:00: 0.9050
2025-08-02 14:00: 0.0950
2025-08-02 14:00: 0.9050
2025-08-02 15:00: 0.0950
2025-08-02 15:00: 0.9050
2025-08-02 16:00: 0.0950
2025-08-02 16:00: 0.9050
Trade Summary: Total trades: 12, Buy volume: 6484.32, Sell volume: 20.00, Average price: 0.8277, Price range: 0.0120 - 0.9987

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 570980
Question: Will Trump announce Larry Kudlow to replace Kugler?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 6504.32
Price History:
2025-08-02 17:00: 0.0950
2025-08-02 17:00: 0.9050
2025-08-02 18:00: 0.0950
2025-08-02 18:00: 0.9050
2025-08-02 19:00: 0.0950
2025-08-02 19:00: 0.9050
2025-08-02 20:00: 0.0950
2025-08-02 20:00: 0.9050
2025-08-02 21:00: 0.0950
2025-08-02 21:00: 0.9050
2025-08-02 22:00: 0.0950
2025-08-02 22:00: 0.9050
2025-08-02 23:00: 0.0950
2025-08-02 23:00: 0.9050
2025-08-03 00:00: 0.0950
2025-08-03 00:00: 0.9050
2025-08-03 01:00: 0.0950
2025-08-03 01:00: 0.9050
2025-08-03 02:00: 0.0950
2025-08-03 02:00: 0.9050
2025-08-03 03:00: 0.0950
2025-08-03 03:00: 0.9050
2025-08-03 04:00: 0.0950
Trade Summary: Total trades: 12, Buy volume: 6484.32, Sell volume: 20.00, Average price: 0.8277, Price range: 0.0120 - 0.9987

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 570980
Question: Will Trump announce Larry Kudlow to replace Kugler?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 6504.32
Price History:
2025-08-03 04:00: 0.9050
2025-08-03 05:00: 0.0950
2025-08-03 05:00: 0.9050
2025-08-03 06:00: 0.0900
2025-08-03 06:00: 0.9100
2025-08-03 07:00: 0.0800
2025-08-03 07:00: 0.9200
2025-08-03 08:00: 0.0800
2025-08-03 08:00: 0.9200
2025-08-03 09:00: 0.0850
2025-08-03 09:00: 0.9150
2025-08-03 10:00: 0.0850
2025-08-03 10:00: 0.9150
2025-08-03 11:00: 0.0850
2025-08-03 11:00: 0.9150
2025-08-03 12:00: 0.0850
2025-08-03 12:00: 0.9150
2025-08-03 13:00: 0.0850
2025-08-03 13:00: 0.9150
2025-08-03 14:00: 0.0850
2025-08-03 14:00: 0.9150
2025-08-03 15:00: 0.0850
2025-08-03 15:00: 0.9150
Trade Summary: Total trades: 12, Buy volume: 6484.32, Sell volume: 20.00, Average price: 0.8277, Price range: 0.0120 - 0.9987

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 570980
Question: Will Trump announce Larry Kudlow to replace Kugler?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 6504.32
Price History:
2025-08-03 16:00: 0.0850
2025-08-03 16:00: 0.9150
2025-08-03 17:00: 0.0850
2025-08-03 17:00: 0.9150
2025-08-03 18:00: 0.0850
2025-08-03 18:00: 0.9150
2025-08-03 19:00: 0.0900
2025-08-03 19:00: 0.9100
2025-08-03 20:00: 0.0900
2025-08-03 20:00: 0.9100
2025-08-03 21:00: 0.1000
2025-08-03 21:00: 0.9000
2025-08-03 22:00: 0.1000
2025-08-03 22:00: 0.9000
2025-08-03 23:00: 0.1000
2025-08-03 23:00: 0.9000
2025-08-04 00:00: 0.1000
2025-08-04 00:00: 0.9000
2025-08-04 01:00: 0.1000
2025-08-04 01:00: 0.9000
2025-08-04 02:00: 0.1000
2025-08-04 02:00: 0.9000
2025-08-04 03:00: 0.1000
Trade Summary: Total trades: 12, Buy volume: 6484.32, Sell volume: 20.00, Average price: 0.8277, Price range: 0.0120 - 0.9987

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 570980
Question: Will Trump announce Larry Kudlow to replace Kugler?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 6504.32
Price History:
2025-08-04 03:00: 0.9000
2025-08-04 04:00: 0.1000
2025-08-04 04:00: 0.9000
2025-08-04 05:00: 0.1000
2025-08-04 05:00: 0.9000
2025-08-04 06:00: 0.1000
2025-08-04 06:00: 0.9000
2025-08-04 07:00: 0.1000
2025-08-04 07:00: 0.9000
2025-08-04 08:00: 0.1000
2025-08-04 08:00: 0.9000
2025-08-04 09:00: 0.1000
2025-08-04 09:00: 0.9000
2025-08-04 10:00: 0.1000
2025-08-04 10:00: 0.9000
2025-08-04 11:00: 0.1000
2025-08-04 11:00: 0.9000
2025-08-04 12:00: 0.1000
2025-08-04 12:00: 0.9000
2025-08-04 13:00: 0.1000
2025-08-04 13:00: 0.9000
2025-08-04 14:00: 0.1350
2025-08-04 14:00: 0.8650
Trade Summary: Total trades: 12, Buy volume: 6484.32, Sell volume: 20.00, Average price: 0.8277, Price range: 0.0120 - 0.9987

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 570980
Question: Will Trump announce Larry Kudlow to replace Kugler?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 6504.32
Price History:
2025-08-04 15:00: 0.1350
2025-08-04 15:00: 0.8650
2025-08-04 16:00: 0.0300
2025-08-04 16:00: 0.9700
2025-08-04 17:00: 0.0300
2025-08-04 17:00: 0.9700
2025-08-04 18:00: 0.0305
2025-08-04 18:00: 0.9695
2025-08-04 19:00: 0.0260
2025-08-04 19:00: 0.9740
2025-08-04 20:00: 0.0260
2025-08-04 20:00: 0.9740
2025-08-04 21:00: 0.0260
2025-08-04 21:00: 0.9740
2025-08-04 22:00: 0.0260
2025-08-04 22:00: 0.9740
2025-08-04 23:00: 0.0255
2025-08-04 23:00: 0.9745
2025-08-05 00:00: 0.0255
2025-08-05 00:00: 0.9745
2025-08-05 01:00: 0.0255
2025-08-05 01:00: 0.9745
2025-08-05 02:00: 0.0255
Trade Summary: Total trades: 12, Buy volume: 6484.32, Sell volume: 20.00, Average price: 0.8277, Price range: 0.0120 - 0.9987

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 570980
Question: Will Trump announce Larry Kudlow to replace Kugler?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 6504.32
Price History:
2025-08-05 02:00: 0.9745
2025-08-05 03:00: 0.0255
2025-08-05 03:00: 0.9745
2025-08-05 04:00: 0.0255
2025-08-05 04:00: 0.9745
2025-08-05 05:00: 0.0255
2025-08-05 05:00: 0.9745
2025-08-05 06:00: 0.0215
2025-08-05 06:00: 0.9785
2025-08-05 07:00: 0.0210
2025-08-05 07:00: 0.9790
2025-08-05 08:00: 0.0215
2025-08-05 08:00: 0.9785
2025-08-05 09:00: 0.0210
2025-08-05 09:00: 0.9790
2025-08-05 10:00: 0.0220
2025-08-05 10:00: 0.9780
2025-08-05 11:00: 0.0235
2025-08-05 11:00: 0.9765
2025-08-05 12:00: 0.0255
2025-08-05 12:00: 0.9745
2025-08-05 13:00: 0.0215
2025-08-05 13:00: 0.9785
Trade Summary: Total trades: 3, Buy volume: 32.32, Sell volume: 10.00, Average price: 0.6593, Price range: 0.0120 - 0.9830

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 570980
Question: Will Trump announce Larry Kudlow to replace Kugler?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 6504.32
Price History:
2025-08-05 14:00: 0.0210
2025-08-05 14:00: 0.9790
2025-08-05 15:00: 0.0235
2025-08-05 15:00: 0.9765
2025-08-05 16:00: 0.0210
2025-08-05 16:00: 0.9790
2025-08-05 17:00: 0.0210
2025-08-05 17:00: 0.9790
2025-08-05 18:00: 0.0205
2025-08-05 18:00: 0.9795
2025-08-05 19:00: 0.0205
2025-08-05 19:00: 0.9795
2025-08-05 20:00: 0.0210
2025-08-05 20:00: 0.9790
2025-08-05 21:00: 0.0210
2025-08-05 21:00: 0.9790
2025-08-05 22:00: 0.0205
2025-08-05 22:00: 0.9795
2025-08-05 23:00: 0.0200
2025-08-05 23:00: 0.9800
2025-08-06 00:00: 0.0205
2025-08-06 00:00: 0.9795
2025-08-06 01:00: 0.0205
Trade Summary: Total trades: 1, Buy volume: 0.00, Sell volume: 10.00, Average price: 0.0120, Price range: 0.0120 - 0.0120

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 570980
Question: Will Trump announce Larry Kudlow to replace Kugler?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 6504.32
Price History:
2025-08-06 01:00: 0.9795
2025-08-06 02:00: 0.0205
2025-08-06 02:00: 0.9795
2025-08-06 03:00: 0.0205
2025-08-06 03:00: 0.9795
2025-08-06 04:00: 0.0200
2025-08-06 04:00: 0.9800
2025-08-06 05:00: 0.0200
2025-08-06 05:00: 0.9800
2025-08-06 06:00: 0.0210
2025-08-06 06:00: 0.9790
2025-08-06 07:00: 0.0210
2025-08-06 07:00: 0.9790
2025-08-06 08:00: 0.0210
2025-08-06 08:00: 0.9790
2025-08-06 09:00: 0.0205
2025-08-06 09:00: 0.9795
2025-08-06 10:00: 0.0210
2025-08-06 10:00: 0.9790
2025-08-06 11:00: 0.0210
2025-08-06 11:00: 0.9790
2025-08-06 12:00: 0.0205
2025-08-06 12:00: 0.9795
Trade Summary: Total trades: 12, Buy volume: 6484.32, Sell volume: 20.00, Average price: 0.8277, Price range: 0.0120 - 0.9987

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 570980
Question: Will Trump announce Larry Kudlow to replace Kugler?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 6504.32
Price History:
2025-08-06 13:00: 0.0210
2025-08-06 13:00: 0.9790
2025-08-06 14:00: 0.0205
2025-08-06 14:00: 0.9795
2025-08-06 15:00: 0.0205
2025-08-06 15:00: 0.9795
2025-08-06 16:00: 0.0205
2025-08-06 16:00: 0.9795
2025-08-06 17:00: 0.9800
2025-08-06 17:00: 0.0200
2025-08-06 18:00: 0.0190
2025-08-06 18:00: 0.9810
2025-08-06 19:00: 0.0185
2025-08-06 19:00: 0.9815
2025-08-06 20:00: 0.9820
2025-08-06 20:00: 0.0180
2025-08-06 21:00: 0.0180
2025-08-06 21:00: 0.9820
2025-08-06 22:00: 0.0180
2025-08-06 22:00: 0.9820
2025-08-06 23:00: 0.9825
2025-08-06 23:00: 0.0175
2025-08-07 00:00: 0.9820
Trade Summary: Total trades: 1, Buy volume: 10.00, Sell volume: 0.00, Average price: 0.9870, Price range: 0.9870 - 0.9870

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 570980
Question: Will Trump announce Larry Kudlow to replace Kugler?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 6504.32
Price History:
2025-08-07 00:00: 0.0180
2025-08-07 01:00: 0.9820
2025-08-07 01:00: 0.0180
2025-08-07 02:00: 0.9820
2025-08-07 02:00: 0.0180
2025-08-07 03:00: 0.9820
2025-08-07 03:00: 0.0180
2025-08-07 04:00: 0.9820
2025-08-07 04:00: 0.0180
2025-08-07 05:00: 0.0185
2025-08-07 05:00: 0.9815
2025-08-07 06:00: 0.9815
2025-08-07 06:00: 0.0185
2025-08-07 07:00: 0.0185
2025-08-07 07:00: 0.9815
2025-08-07 08:00: 0.9815
2025-08-07 08:00: 0.0185
2025-08-07 09:00: 0.9785
2025-08-07 09:00: 0.0215
2025-08-07 10:00: 0.0215
2025-08-07 10:00: 0.9785
2025-08-07 11:00: 0.0215
2025-08-07 11:00: 0.9785
Trade Summary: Total trades: 12, Buy volume: 6484.32, Sell volume: 20.00, Average price: 0.8277, Price range: 0.0120 - 0.9987

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 570980
Question: Will Trump announce Larry Kudlow to replace Kugler?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 6504.32
Price History:
2025-08-07 12:00: 0.9785
2025-08-07 12:00: 0.0215
2025-08-07 13:00: 0.9790
2025-08-07 13:00: 0.0210
2025-08-07 14:00: 0.9785
2025-08-07 14:00: 0.0215
2025-08-07 15:00: 0.9785
2025-08-07 15:00: 0.0215
2025-08-07 16:00: 0.9945
2025-08-07 16:00: 0.0055
2025-08-07 17:00: 0.9985
2025-08-07 17:00: 0.0015
2025-08-07 18:00: 0.9985
2025-08-07 18:00: 0.0015
2025-08-07 19:00: 0.9985
2025-08-07 19:00: 0.0015
2025-08-07 20:00: 0.9985
2025-08-07 20:00: 0.0015
2025-08-07 21:00: 0.9995
2025-08-07 21:00: 0.0005
2025-08-07 22:00: 0.0005
2025-08-07 22:00: 0.9995
2025-08-07 23:00: 0.0005
Trade Summary: Total trades: 7, Buy volume: 6442.00, Sell volume: 0.00, Average price: 0.9937, Price range: 0.9869 - 0.9987

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 570980
Question: Will Trump announce Larry Kudlow to replace Kugler?
Volume: 6504.32
Price History:
2025-08-01 18:00: 0.1000
2025-08-01 18:00: 0.9000
2025-08-01 19:00: 0.1000
2025-08-01 19:00: 0.9000
2025-08-01 20:00: 0.1000
2025-08-01 20:00: 0.9000
2025-08-01 21:00: 0.0950
2025-08-01 21:00: 0.9050
2025-08-01 22:00: 0.0950
2025-08-01 22:00: 0.9050
2025-08-01 23:00: 0.0950
2025-08-01 23:00: 0.9050
2025-08-02 00:00: 0.0950
2025-08-02 00:00: 0.9050
2025-08-02 01:00: 0.0950
2025-08-02 01:00: 0.9050
2025-08-02 02:00: 0.0950
2025-08-02 02:00: 0.9050
2025-08-02 03:00: 0.0950
2025-08-02 03:00: 0.9050
2025-08-02 04:00: 0.0950
2025-08-02 04:00: 0.9050
2025-08-02 05:00: 0.0950
Trade Summary: Total trades: 12, Buy volume: 6484.32, Sell volume: 20.00, Average price: 0.8277, Price range: 0.0120 - 0.9987
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 570980
Question: Will Trump announce Larry Kudlow to replace Kugler?
Volume: 6504.32
Price History:
2025-08-02 05:00: 0.9050
2025-08-02 06:00: 0.0950
2025-08-02 06:00: 0.9050
2025-08-02 07:00: 0.0950
2025-08-02 07:00: 0.9050
2025-08-02 08:00: 0.0950
2025-08-02 08:00: 0.9050
2025-08-02 09:00: 0.0950
2025-08-02 09:00: 0.9050
2025-08-02 10:00: 0.0950
2025-08-02 10:00: 0.9050
2025-08-02 11:00: 0.0950
2025-08-02 11:00: 0.9050
2025-08-02 12:00: 0.0950
2025-08-02 12:00: 0.9050
2025-08-02 13:00: 0.0950
2025-08-02 13:00: 0.9050
2025-08-02 14:00: 0.0950
2025-08-02 14:00: 0.9050
2025-08-02 15:00: 0.0950
2025-08-02 15:00: 0.9050
2025-08-02 16:00: 0.0950
2025-08-02 16:00: 0.9050
Trade Summary: Total trades: 12, Buy volume: 6484.32, Sell volume: 20.00, Average price: 0.8277, Price range: 0.0120 - 0.9987
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 570980
Question: Will Trump announce Larry Kudlow to replace Kugler?
Volume: 6504.32
Price History:
2025-08-02 17:00: 0.0950
2025-08-02 17:00: 0.9050
2025-08-02 18:00: 0.0950
2025-08-02 18:00: 0.9050
2025-08-02 19:00: 0.0950
2025-08-02 19:00: 0.9050
2025-08-02 20:00: 0.0950
2025-08-02 20:00: 0.9050
2025-08-02 21:00: 0.0950
2025-08-02 21:00: 0.9050
2025-08-02 22:00: 0.0950
2025-08-02 22:00: 0.9050
2025-08-02 23:00: 0.0950
2025-08-02 23:00: 0.9050
2025-08-03 00:00: 0.0950
2025-08-03 00:00: 0.9050
2025-08-03 01:00: 0.0950
2025-08-03 01:00: 0.9050
2025-08-03 02:00: 0.0950
2025-08-03 02:00: 0.9050
2025-08-03 03:00: 0.0950
2025-08-03 03:00: 0.9050
2025-08-03 04:00: 0.0950
Trade Summary: Total trades: 12, Buy volume: 6484.32, Sell volume: 20.00, Average price: 0.8277, Price range: 0.0120 - 0.9987
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 570980
Question: Will Trump announce Larry Kudlow to replace Kugler?
Volume: 6504.32
Price History:
2025-08-03 04:00: 0.9050
2025-08-03 05:00: 0.0950
2025-08-03 05:00: 0.9050
2025-08-03 06:00: 0.0900
2025-08-03 06:00: 0.9100
2025-08-03 07:00: 0.0800
2025-08-03 07:00: 0.9200
2025-08-03 08:00: 0.0800
2025-08-03 08:00: 0.9200
2025-08-03 09:00: 0.0850
2025-08-03 09:00: 0.9150
2025-08-03 10:00: 0.0850
2025-08-03 10:00: 0.9150
2025-08-03 11:00: 0.0850
2025-08-03 11:00: 0.9150
2025-08-03 12:00: 0.0850
2025-08-03 12:00: 0.9150
2025-08-03 13:00: 0.0850
2025-08-03 13:00: 0.9150
2025-08-03 14:00: 0.0850
2025-08-03 14:00: 0.9150
2025-08-03 15:00: 0.0850
2025-08-03 15:00: 0.9150
Trade Summary: Total trades: 12, Buy volume: 6484.32, Sell volume: 20.00, Average price: 0.8277, Price range: 0.0120 - 0.9987
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 570980
Question: Will Trump announce Larry Kudlow to replace Kugler?
Volume: 6504.32
Price History:
2025-08-03 16:00: 0.0850
2025-08-03 16:00: 0.9150
2025-08-03 17:00: 0.0850
2025-08-03 17:00: 0.9150
2025-08-03 18:00: 0.0850
2025-08-03 18:00: 0.9150
2025-08-03 19:00: 0.0900
2025-08-03 19:00: 0.9100
2025-08-03 20:00: 0.0900
2025-08-03 20:00: 0.9100
2025-08-03 21:00: 0.1000
2025-08-03 21:00: 0.9000
2025-08-03 22:00: 0.1000
2025-08-03 22:00: 0.9000
2025-08-03 23:00: 0.1000
2025-08-03 23:00: 0.9000
2025-08-04 00:00: 0.1000
2025-08-04 00:00: 0.9000
2025-08-04 01:00: 0.1000
2025-08-04 01:00: 0.9000
2025-08-04 02:00: 0.1000
2025-08-04 02:00: 0.9000
2025-08-04 03:00: 0.1000
Trade Summary: Total trades: 12, Buy volume: 6484.32, Sell volume: 20.00, Average price: 0.8277, Price range: 0.0120 - 0.9987
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 570980
Question: Will Trump announce Larry Kudlow to replace Kugler?
Volume: 6504.32
Price History:
2025-08-04 03:00: 0.9000
2025-08-04 04:00: 0.1000
2025-08-04 04:00: 0.9000
2025-08-04 05:00: 0.1000
2025-08-04 05:00: 0.9000
2025-08-04 06:00: 0.1000
2025-08-04 06:00: 0.9000
2025-08-04 07:00: 0.1000
2025-08-04 07:00: 0.9000
2025-08-04 08:00: 0.1000
2025-08-04 08:00: 0.9000
2025-08-04 09:00: 0.1000
2025-08-04 09:00: 0.9000
2025-08-04 10:00: 0.1000
2025-08-04 10:00: 0.9000
2025-08-04 11:00: 0.1000
2025-08-04 11:00: 0.9000
2025-08-04 12:00: 0.1000
2025-08-04 12:00: 0.9000
2025-08-04 13:00: 0.1000
2025-08-04 13:00: 0.9000
2025-08-04 14:00: 0.1350
2025-08-04 14:00: 0.8650
Trade Summary: Total trades: 12, Buy volume: 6484.32, Sell volume: 20.00, Average price: 0.8277, Price range: 0.0120 - 0.9987
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 570980
Question: Will Trump announce Larry Kudlow to replace Kugler?
Volume: 6504.32
Price History:
2025-08-04 15:00: 0.1350
2025-08-04 15:00: 0.8650
2025-08-04 16:00: 0.0300
2025-08-04 16:00: 0.9700
2025-08-04 17:00: 0.0300
2025-08-04 17:00: 0.9700
2025-08-04 18:00: 0.0305
2025-08-04 18:00: 0.9695
2025-08-04 19:00: 0.0260
2025-08-04 19:00: 0.9740
2025-08-04 20:00: 0.0260
2025-08-04 20:00: 0.9740
2025-08-04 21:00: 0.0260
2025-08-04 21:00: 0.9740
2025-08-04 22:00: 0.0260
2025-08-04 22:00: 0.9740
2025-08-04 23:00: 0.0255
2025-08-04 23:00: 0.9745
2025-08-05 00:00: 0.0255
2025-08-05 00:00: 0.9745
2025-08-05 01:00: 0.0255
2025-08-05 01:00: 0.9745
2025-08-05 02:00: 0.0255
Trade Summary: Total trades: 12, Buy volume: 6484.32, Sell volume: 20.00, Average price: 0.8277, Price range: 0.0120 - 0.9987
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 570980
Question: Will Trump announce Larry Kudlow to replace Kugler?
Volume: 6504.32
Price History:
2025-08-05 02:00: 0.9745
2025-08-05 03:00: 0.0255
2025-08-05 03:00: 0.9745
2025-08-05 04:00: 0.0255
2025-08-05 04:00: 0.9745
2025-08-05 05:00: 0.0255
2025-08-05 05:00: 0.9745
2025-08-05 06:00: 0.0215
2025-08-05 06:00: 0.9785
2025-08-05 07:00: 0.0210
2025-08-05 07:00: 0.9790
2025-08-05 08:00: 0.0215
2025-08-05 08:00: 0.9785
2025-08-05 09:00: 0.0210
2025-08-05 09:00: 0.9790
2025-08-05 10:00: 0.0220
2025-08-05 10:00: 0.9780
2025-08-05 11:00: 0.0235
2025-08-05 11:00: 0.9765
2025-08-05 12:00: 0.0255
2025-08-05 12:00: 0.9745
2025-08-05 13:00: 0.0215
2025-08-05 13:00: 0.9785
Trade Summary: Total trades: 3, Buy volume: 32.32, Sell volume: 10.00, Average price: 0.6593, Price range: 0.0120 - 0.9830
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 570980
Question: Will Trump announce Larry Kudlow to replace Kugler?
Volume: 6504.32
Price History:
2025-08-05 14:00: 0.0210
2025-08-05 14:00: 0.9790
2025-08-05 15:00: 0.0235
2025-08-05 15:00: 0.9765
2025-08-05 16:00: 0.0210
2025-08-05 16:00: 0.9790
2025-08-05 17:00: 0.0210
2025-08-05 17:00: 0.9790
2025-08-05 18:00: 0.0205
2025-08-05 18:00: 0.9795
2025-08-05 19:00: 0.0205
2025-08-05 19:00: 0.9795
2025-08-05 20:00: 0.0210
2025-08-05 20:00: 0.9790
2025-08-05 21:00: 0.0210
2025-08-05 21:00: 0.9790
2025-08-05 22:00: 0.0205
2025-08-05 22:00: 0.9795
2025-08-05 23:00: 0.0200
2025-08-05 23:00: 0.9800
2025-08-06 00:00: 0.0205
2025-08-06 00:00: 0.9795
2025-08-06 01:00: 0.0205
Trade Summary: Total trades: 1, Buy volume: 0.00, Sell volume: 10.00, Average price: 0.0120, Price range: 0.0120 - 0.0120
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 570980
Question: Will Trump announce Larry Kudlow to replace Kugler?
Volume: 6504.32
Price History:
2025-08-06 01:00: 0.9795
2025-08-06 02:00: 0.0205
2025-08-06 02:00: 0.9795
2025-08-06 03:00: 0.0205
2025-08-06 03:00: 0.9795
2025-08-06 04:00: 0.0200
2025-08-06 04:00: 0.9800
2025-08-06 05:00: 0.0200
2025-08-06 05:00: 0.9800
2025-08-06 06:00: 0.0210
2025-08-06 06:00: 0.9790
2025-08-06 07:00: 0.0210
2025-08-06 07:00: 0.9790
2025-08-06 08:00: 0.0210
2025-08-06 08:00: 0.9790
2025-08-06 09:00: 0.0205
2025-08-06 09:00: 0.9795
2025-08-06 10:00: 0.0210
2025-08-06 10:00: 0.9790
2025-08-06 11:00: 0.0210
2025-08-06 11:00: 0.9790
2025-08-06 12:00: 0.0205
2025-08-06 12:00: 0.9795
Trade Summary: Total trades: 12, Buy volume: 6484.32, Sell volume: 20.00, Average price: 0.8277, Price range: 0.0120 - 0.9987
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 570980
Question: Will Trump announce Larry Kudlow to replace Kugler?
Volume: 6504.32
Price History:
2025-08-06 13:00: 0.0210
2025-08-06 13:00: 0.9790
2025-08-06 14:00: 0.0205
2025-08-06 14:00: 0.9795
2025-08-06 15:00: 0.0205
2025-08-06 15:00: 0.9795
2025-08-06 16:00: 0.0205
2025-08-06 16:00: 0.9795
2025-08-06 17:00: 0.9800
2025-08-06 17:00: 0.0200
2025-08-06 18:00: 0.0190
2025-08-06 18:00: 0.9810
2025-08-06 19:00: 0.0185
2025-08-06 19:00: 0.9815
2025-08-06 20:00: 0.9820
2025-08-06 20:00: 0.0180
2025-08-06 21:00: 0.0180
2025-08-06 21:00: 0.9820
2025-08-06 22:00: 0.0180
2025-08-06 22:00: 0.9820
2025-08-06 23:00: 0.9825
2025-08-06 23:00: 0.0175
2025-08-07 00:00: 0.9820
Trade Summary: Total trades: 1, Buy volume: 10.00, Sell volume: 0.00, Average price: 0.9870, Price range: 0.9870 - 0.9870
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 570980
Question: Will Trump announce Larry Kudlow to replace Kugler?
Volume: 6504.32
Price History:
2025-08-07 00:00: 0.0180
2025-08-07 01:00: 0.9820
2025-08-07 01:00: 0.0180
2025-08-07 02:00: 0.9820
2025-08-07 02:00: 0.0180
2025-08-07 03:00: 0.9820
2025-08-07 03:00: 0.0180
2025-08-07 04:00: 0.9820
2025-08-07 04:00: 0.0180
2025-08-07 05:00: 0.0185
2025-08-07 05:00: 0.9815
2025-08-07 06:00: 0.9815
2025-08-07 06:00: 0.0185
2025-08-07 07:00: 0.0185
2025-08-07 07:00: 0.9815
2025-08-07 08:00: 0.9815
2025-08-07 08:00: 0.0185
2025-08-07 09:00: 0.9785
2025-08-07 09:00: 0.0215
2025-08-07 10:00: 0.0215
2025-08-07 10:00: 0.9785
2025-08-07 11:00: 0.0215
2025-08-07 11:00: 0.9785
Trade Summary: Total trades: 12, Buy volume: 6484.32, Sell volume: 20.00, Average price: 0.8277, Price range: 0.0120 - 0.9987
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes