Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 524346
Question: Will Karoline Leavitt say "President" 50+ times during next White House press briefing?
Volume: 3131.111312
Price History:
2025-02-22 20:00: 0.8550
2025-02-22 20:00: 0.1450
2025-02-22 21:00: 0.8550
2025-02-22 21:00: 0.1450
2025-02-22 22:00: 0.8550
2025-02-22 22:00: 0.1450
2025-02-22 23:00: 0.8550
2025-02-22 23:00: 0.1450
2025-02-23 00:00: 0.8550
2025-02-23 00:00: 0.1450
2025-02-23 01:00: 0.8550
2025-02-23 01:00: 0.1450
2025-02-23 02:00: 0.8550
2025-02-23 02:00: 0.1450
2025-02-23 03:00: 0.8550
Trade Summary: Total trades: 19, Buy volume: 2227.13, Sell volume: 903.98, Average price: 0.5380, Price range: 0.0050 - 0.9990
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 524346
Question: Will Karoline Leavitt say "President" 50+ times during next White House press briefing?
Volume: 3131.111312
Price History:
2025-02-23 03:00: 0.1450
2025-02-23 04:00: 0.8550
2025-02-23 04:00: 0.1450
2025-02-23 05:00: 0.8550
2025-02-23 05:00: 0.1450
2025-02-23 06:00: 0.8500
2025-02-23 06:00: 0.1500
2025-02-23 07:00: 0.8500
2025-02-23 07:00: 0.1500
2025-02-23 08:00: 0.8500
2025-02-23 08:00: 0.1500
2025-02-23 09:00: 0.8500
2025-02-23 09:00: 0.1500
2025-02-23 10:00: 0.8500
2025-02-23 10:00: 0.1500
Trade Summary: Total trades: 19, Buy volume: 2227.13, Sell volume: 903.98, Average price: 0.5380, Price range: 0.0050 - 0.9990
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 524346
Question: Will Karoline Leavitt say "President" 50+ times during next White House press briefing?
Volume: 3131.111312
Price History:
2025-02-23 11:00: 0.8550
2025-02-23 11:00: 0.1450
2025-02-23 12:00: 0.8550
2025-02-23 12:00: 0.1450
2025-02-23 13:00: 0.8550
2025-02-23 13:00: 0.1450
2025-02-23 14:00: 0.8550
2025-02-23 14:00: 0.1450
2025-02-23 15:00: 0.8550
2025-02-23 15:00: 0.1450
2025-02-23 16:00: 0.8550
2025-02-23 16:00: 0.1450
2025-02-23 17:00: 0.8550
2025-02-23 17:00: 0.1450
2025-02-23 18:00: 0.8500
Trade Summary: Total trades: 19, Buy volume: 2227.13, Sell volume: 903.98, Average price: 0.5380, Price range: 0.0050 - 0.9990
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 524346
Question: Will Karoline Leavitt say "President" 50+ times during next White House press briefing?
Volume: 3131.111312
Price History:
2025-02-23 18:00: 0.1500
2025-02-23 19:00: 0.8500
2025-02-23 19:00: 0.1500
2025-02-23 20:00: 0.8500
2025-02-23 20:00: 0.1500
2025-02-23 21:00: 0.8500
2025-02-23 21:00: 0.1500
2025-02-23 22:00: 0.8500
2025-02-23 22:00: 0.1500
2025-02-23 23:00: 0.8450
2025-02-23 23:00: 0.1550
2025-02-24 00:00: 0.8450
2025-02-24 00:00: 0.1550
2025-02-24 01:00: 0.8450
2025-02-24 01:00: 0.1550
Trade Summary: Total trades: 19, Buy volume: 2227.13, Sell volume: 903.98, Average price: 0.5380, Price range: 0.0050 - 0.9990
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 524346
Question: Will Karoline Leavitt say "President" 50+ times during next White House press briefing?
Volume: 3131.111312
Price History:
2025-02-24 02:00: 0.8450
2025-02-24 02:00: 0.1550
2025-02-24 03:00: 0.8450
2025-02-24 03:00: 0.1550
2025-02-24 04:00: 0.8450
2025-02-24 04:00: 0.1550
2025-02-24 05:00: 0.8450
2025-02-24 05:00: 0.1550
2025-02-24 06:00: 0.8450
2025-02-24 06:00: 0.1550
2025-02-24 07:00: 0.8450
2025-02-24 07:00: 0.1550
2025-02-24 08:00: 0.8450
2025-02-24 08:00: 0.1550
2025-02-24 09:00: 0.8500
Trade Summary: Total trades: 19, Buy volume: 2227.13, Sell volume: 903.98, Average price: 0.5380, Price range: 0.0050 - 0.9990
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 524346
Question: Will Karoline Leavitt say "President" 50+ times during next White House press briefing?
Volume: 3131.111312
Price History:
2025-02-24 09:00: 0.1500
2025-02-24 10:00: 0.8550
2025-02-24 10:00: 0.1450
2025-02-24 11:00: 0.8850
2025-02-24 11:00: 0.1150
2025-02-24 12:00: 0.8800
2025-02-24 12:00: 0.1200
2025-02-24 13:00: 0.8800
2025-02-24 13:00: 0.1200
2025-02-24 14:00: 0.8800
2025-02-24 14:00: 0.1200
2025-02-24 15:00: 0.8750
2025-02-24 15:00: 0.1250
2025-02-24 16:00: 0.8800
2025-02-24 16:00: 0.1200
Trade Summary: Total trades: 19, Buy volume: 2227.13, Sell volume: 903.98, Average price: 0.5380, Price range: 0.0050 - 0.9990
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 524346
Question: Will Karoline Leavitt say "President" 50+ times during next White House press briefing?
Volume: 3131.111312
Price History:
2025-02-24 17:00: 0.8800
2025-02-24 17:00: 0.1200
2025-02-24 18:00: 0.8800
2025-02-24 18:00: 0.1200
2025-02-24 19:00: 0.8800
2025-02-24 19:00: 0.1200
2025-02-24 20:00: 0.8800
2025-02-24 20:00: 0.1200
2025-02-24 21:00: 0.9550
2025-02-24 21:00: 0.0450
2025-02-24 22:00: 0.9550
2025-02-24 22:00: 0.0450
2025-02-24 23:00: 0.9650
2025-02-24 23:00: 0.0350
2025-02-25 00:00: 0.9600
Trade Summary: Total trades: 3, Buy volume: 101.03, Sell volume: 1.03, Average price: 0.3533, Price range: 0.0400 - 0.9700
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 524346
Question: Will Karoline Leavitt say "President" 50+ times during next White House press briefing?
Volume: 3131.111312
Price History:
2025-02-25 00:00: 0.0400
2025-02-25 01:00: 0.9600
2025-02-25 01:00: 0.0400
2025-02-25 02:00: 0.9640
2025-02-25 02:00: 0.0360
2025-02-25 03:00: 0.9575
2025-02-25 03:00: 0.0425
2025-02-25 04:00: 0.9575
2025-02-25 04:00: 0.0425
2025-02-25 05:00: 0.9575
2025-02-25 05:00: 0.0425
2025-02-25 06:00: 0.9575
2025-02-25 06:00: 0.0425
2025-02-25 07:00: 0.9535
2025-02-25 07:00: 0.0465
Trade Summary: Total trades: 19, Buy volume: 2227.13, Sell volume: 903.98, Average price: 0.5380, Price range: 0.0050 - 0.9990
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 524346
Question: Will Karoline Leavitt say "President" 50+ times during next White House press briefing?
Volume: 3131.111312
Price History:
2025-02-25 08:00: 0.9535
2025-02-25 08:00: 0.0465
2025-02-25 09:00: 0.9630
2025-02-25 09:00: 0.0370
2025-02-25 10:00: 0.9580
2025-02-25 10:00: 0.0420
2025-02-25 11:00: 0.9535
2025-02-25 11:00: 0.0465
2025-02-25 12:00: 0.8180
2025-02-25 12:00: 0.1820
2025-02-25 13:00: 0.8390
2025-02-25 13:00: 0.1610
2025-02-25 14:00: 0.9980
2025-02-25 14:00: 0.0020
2025-02-25 15:00: 0.9980
Trade Summary: Total trades: 14, Buy volume: 2125.09, Sell volume: 387.40, Average price: 0.5124, Price range: 0.0050 - 0.9990
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 582275
Question: Will Xavier Bertrand be the next Prime Minister of France?
Volume: 10027.089426
Price History:
2025-08-27 17:00: 0.5100
2025-08-27 17:00: 0.4900
2025-08-27 18:00: 0.4000
2025-08-27 18:00: 0.6000
2025-08-27 19:00: 0.1550
2025-08-27 19:00: 0.8450
2025-08-27 20:00: 0.9500
2025-08-27 20:00: 0.0500
2025-08-27 21:00: 0.0500
2025-08-27 21:00: 0.9500
2025-08-27 22:00: 0.0500
2025-08-27 22:00: 0.9500
2025-08-27 23:00: 0.0500
2025-08-27 23:00: 0.9500
2025-08-28 00:00: 0.0400
2025-08-28 00:00: 0.9600
2025-08-28 01:00: 0.9450
2025-08-28 01:00: 0.0550
2025-08-28 02:00: 0.9450
2025-08-28 02:00: 0.0550
2025-08-28 03:00: 0.0300
2025-08-28 03:00: 0.9700
2025-08-28 04:00: 0.0295
2025-08-28 04:00: 0.9705
2025-08-28 05:00: 0.0305
2025-08-28 05:00: 0.9695
2025-08-28 06:00: 0.0305
2025-08-28 06:00: 0.9695
2025-08-28 07:00: 0.0295
2025-08-28 07:00: 0.9705
Trade Summary: Total trades: 20, Buy volume: 832.11, Sell volume: 142.00, Average price: 0.7385, Price range: 0.0200 - 0.9790
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 582275
Question: Will Xavier Bertrand be the next Prime Minister of France?
Volume: 10027.089426
Price History:
2025-08-28 17:00: 0.0280
2025-08-28 17:00: 0.9720
2025-08-28 18:00: 0.0275
2025-08-28 18:00: 0.9725
2025-08-28 19:00: 0.0255
2025-08-28 19:00: 0.9745
2025-08-28 20:00: 0.0245
2025-08-28 20:00: 0.9755
2025-08-28 21:00: 0.0240
2025-08-28 21:00: 0.9760
2025-08-28 22:00: 0.9765
2025-08-28 22:00: 0.0235
2025-08-28 23:00: 0.0230
2025-08-28 23:00: 0.9770
2025-08-29 00:00: 0.0235
2025-08-29 00:00: 0.9765
2025-08-29 01:00: 0.0235
2025-08-29 01:00: 0.9765
2025-08-29 02:00: 0.0230
2025-08-29 02:00: 0.9770
2025-08-29 03:00: 0.0225
2025-08-29 03:00: 0.9775
2025-08-29 04:00: 0.0225
2025-08-29 04:00: 0.9775
2025-08-29 05:00: 0.9775
2025-08-29 05:00: 0.0225
2025-08-29 06:00: 0.0225
2025-08-29 06:00: 0.9775
2025-08-29 07:00: 0.0225
2025-08-29 07:00: 0.9775
Trade Summary: Total trades: 13, Buy volume: 235.92, Sell volume: 230.11, Average price: 0.9058, Price range: 0.0205 - 0.9800
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 582275
Question: Will Xavier Bertrand be the next Prime Minister of France?
Volume: 10027.089426
Price History:
2025-08-29 17:00: 0.0175
2025-08-29 17:00: 0.9825
2025-08-29 18:00: 0.0175
2025-08-29 18:00: 0.9825
2025-08-29 19:00: 0.9825
2025-08-29 19:00: 0.0175
2025-08-29 20:00: 0.9825
2025-08-29 20:00: 0.0175
2025-08-29 21:00: 0.9825
2025-08-29 21:00: 0.0175
2025-08-29 22:00: 0.9820
2025-08-29 22:00: 0.0180
2025-08-29 23:00: 0.0175
2025-08-29 23:00: 0.9825
2025-08-30 00:00: 0.0180
2025-08-30 00:00: 0.9820
2025-08-30 01:00: 0.0180
2025-08-30 01:00: 0.9820
2025-08-30 02:00: 0.0180
2025-08-30 02:00: 0.9820
2025-08-30 03:00: 0.0165
2025-08-30 03:00: 0.9835
2025-08-30 04:00: 0.9830
2025-08-30 04:00: 0.0170
2025-08-30 05:00: 0.9830
2025-08-30 05:00: 0.0170
2025-08-30 06:00: 0.9850
2025-08-30 06:00: 0.0150
2025-08-30 07:00: 0.9850
2025-08-30 07:00: 0.0150
Trade Summary: Total trades: 5, Buy volume: 105.40, Sell volume: 124.99, Average price: 0.7917, Price range: 0.0160 - 0.9865
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 582275
Question: Will Xavier Bertrand be the next Prime Minister of France?
Volume: 10027.089426
Price History:
2025-08-30 17:00: 0.9930
2025-08-30 17:00: 0.0070
2025-08-30 18:00: 0.9930
2025-08-30 18:00: 0.0070
2025-08-30 19:00: 0.9935
2025-08-30 19:00: 0.0065
2025-08-30 20:00: 0.9935
2025-08-30 20:00: 0.0065
2025-08-30 21:00: 0.9935
2025-08-30 21:00: 0.0065
2025-08-30 22:00: 0.0065
2025-08-30 22:00: 0.9935
2025-08-30 23:00: 0.9935
2025-08-30 23:00: 0.0065
2025-08-31 00:00: 0.0065
2025-08-31 00:00: 0.9935
2025-08-31 01:00: 0.0065
2025-08-31 01:00: 0.9935
2025-08-31 02:00: 0.0065
2025-08-31 02:00: 0.9935
2025-08-31 03:00: 0.0065
2025-08-31 03:00: 0.9935
2025-08-31 04:00: 0.0060
2025-08-31 04:00: 0.9940
2025-08-31 05:00: 0.9945
2025-08-31 05:00: 0.0055
2025-08-31 06:00: 0.9945
2025-08-31 06:00: 0.0055
2025-08-31 07:00: 0.9945
2025-08-31 07:00: 0.0055
Trade Summary: Total trades: 4, Buy volume: 137.00, Sell volume: 8.33, Average price: 0.7487, Price range: 0.0060 - 0.9970
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 582275
Question: Will Xavier Bertrand be the next Prime Minister of France?
Volume: 10027.089426
Price History:
2025-08-31 17:00: 0.9960
2025-08-31 17:00: 0.0040
2025-08-31 18:00: 0.9950
2025-08-31 18:00: 0.0050
2025-08-31 19:00: 0.9950
2025-08-31 19:00: 0.0050
2025-08-31 20:00: 0.9950
2025-08-31 20:00: 0.0050
2025-08-31 21:00: 0.9950
2025-08-31 21:00: 0.0050
2025-08-31 22:00: 0.9950
2025-08-31 22:00: 0.0050
2025-08-31 23:00: 0.9960
2025-08-31 23:00: 0.0040
2025-09-01 00:00: 0.0050
2025-09-01 00:00: 0.9950
2025-09-01 01:00: 0.9955
2025-09-01 01:00: 0.0045
2025-09-01 02:00: 0.9955
2025-09-01 02:00: 0.0045
2025-09-01 03:00: 0.0045
2025-09-01 03:00: 0.9955
2025-09-01 04:00: 0.9955
2025-09-01 04:00: 0.0045
2025-09-01 05:00: 0.0045
2025-09-01 05:00: 0.9955
2025-09-01 06:00: 0.9955
2025-09-01 06:00: 0.0045
2025-09-01 07:00: 0.9955
2025-09-01 07:00: 0.0045
Trade Summary: Total trades: 1, Buy volume: 10.83, Sell volume: 0.00, Average price: 0.9980, Price range: 0.9980 - 0.9980
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 582275
Question: Will Xavier Bertrand be the next Prime Minister of France?
Volume: 10027.089426
Price History:
2025-09-01 17:00: 0.9955
2025-09-01 17:00: 0.0045
2025-09-01 18:00: 0.9955
2025-09-01 18:00: 0.0045
2025-09-01 19:00: 0.9955
2025-09-01 19:00: 0.0045
2025-09-01 20:00: 0.9955
2025-09-01 20:00: 0.0045
2025-09-01 21:00: 0.9955
2025-09-01 21:00: 0.0045
2025-09-01 22:00: 0.9955
2025-09-01 22:00: 0.0045
2025-09-01 23:00: 0.9955
2025-09-01 23:00: 0.0045
2025-09-02 00:00: 0.0045
2025-09-02 00:00: 0.9955
2025-09-02 01:00: 0.9955
2025-09-02 01:00: 0.0045
2025-09-02 02:00: 0.9955
2025-09-02 02:00: 0.0045
2025-09-02 03:00: 0.9955
2025-09-02 03:00: 0.0045
2025-09-02 04:00: 0.9955
2025-09-02 04:00: 0.0045
2025-09-02 05:00: 0.0045
2025-09-02 05:00: 0.9955
2025-09-02 06:00: 0.0045
2025-09-02 06:00: 0.9955
2025-09-02 07:00: 0.0045
2025-09-02 07:00: 0.9955
Trade Summary: Total trades: 4, Buy volume: 109.14, Sell volume: 0.00, Average price: 0.9970, Price range: 0.9970 - 0.9970
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 582275
Question: Will Xavier Bertrand be the next Prime Minister of France?
Volume: 10027.089426
Price History:
2025-09-02 17:00: 0.0050
2025-09-02 17:00: 0.9950
2025-09-02 18:00: 0.0050
2025-09-02 18:00: 0.9950
2025-09-02 19:00: 0.0050
2025-09-02 19:00: 0.9950
2025-09-02 20:00: 0.0050
2025-09-02 20:00: 0.9950
2025-09-02 21:00: 0.0050
2025-09-02 21:00: 0.9950
2025-09-02 22:00: 0.0050
2025-09-02 22:00: 0.9950
2025-09-02 23:00: 0.0050
2025-09-02 23:00: 0.9950
2025-09-03 00:00: 0.0050
2025-09-03 00:00: 0.9950
2025-09-03 01:00: 0.0050
2025-09-03 01:00: 0.9950
2025-09-03 02:00: 0.0050
2025-09-03 02:00: 0.9950
2025-09-03 03:00: 0.0050
2025-09-03 03:00: 0.9950
2025-09-03 04:00: 0.0050
2025-09-03 04:00: 0.9950
2025-09-03 05:00: 0.0050
2025-09-03 05:00: 0.9950
2025-09-03 06:00: 0.0050
2025-09-03 06:00: 0.9950
2025-09-03 07:00: 0.0050
2025-09-03 07:00: 0.9950
Trade Summary: Total trades: 179, Buy volume: 8686.68, Sell volume: 1340.41, Average price: 0.8551, Price range: 0.0010 - 0.9990
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike, wash_trading

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 582275
Question: Will Xavier Bertrand be the next Prime Minister of France?
Volume: 10027.089426
Price History:
2025-09-03 17:00: 0.0045
2025-09-03 17:00: 0.9955
2025-09-03 18:00: 0.0050
2025-09-03 18:00: 0.9950
2025-09-03 19:00: 0.0050
2025-09-03 19:00: 0.9950
2025-09-03 20:00: 0.0050
2025-09-03 20:00: 0.9950
2025-09-03 21:00: 0.0050
2025-09-03 21:00: 0.9950
2025-09-03 22:00: 0.0050
2025-09-03 22:00: 0.9950
2025-09-03 23:00: 0.0050
2025-09-03 23:00: 0.9950
2025-09-04 00:00: 0.0050
2025-09-04 00:00: 0.9950
2025-09-04 01:00: 0.0050
2025-09-04 01:00: 0.9950
2025-09-04 02:00: 0.0050
2025-09-04 02:00: 0.9950
2025-09-04 03:00: 0.0055
2025-09-04 03:00: 0.9945
2025-09-04 04:00: 0.0055
2025-09-04 04:00: 0.9945
2025-09-04 05:00: 0.0055
2025-09-04 05:00: 0.9945
2025-09-04 06:00: 0.0055
2025-09-04 06:00: 0.9945
2025-09-04 07:00: 0.0055
2025-09-04 07:00: 0.9945
Trade Summary: Total trades: 2, Buy volume: 5.00, Sell volume: 90.67, Average price: 0.5000, Price range: 0.0030 - 0.9970
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 582275
Question: Will Xavier Bertrand be the next Prime Minister of France?
Volume: 10027.089426
Price History:
2025-09-04 17:00: 0.0055
2025-09-04 17:00: 0.9945
2025-09-04 18:00: 0.0055
2025-09-04 18:00: 0.9945
2025-09-04 19:00: 0.0055
2025-09-04 19:00: 0.9945
2025-09-04 20:00: 0.0055
2025-09-04 20:00: 0.9945
2025-09-04 21:00: 0.0055
2025-09-04 21:00: 0.9945
2025-09-04 22:00: 0.0055
2025-09-04 22:00: 0.9945
2025-09-04 23:00: 0.0055
2025-09-04 23:00: 0.9945
2025-09-05 00:00: 0.9945
2025-09-05 00:00: 0.0055
2025-09-05 01:00: 0.0055
2025-09-05 01:00: 0.9945
2025-09-05 02:00: 0.9945
2025-09-05 02:00: 0.0055
2025-09-05 03:00: 0.0055
2025-09-05 03:00: 0.9945
2025-09-05 04:00: 0.0055
2025-09-05 04:00: 0.9945
2025-09-05 05:00: 0.0055
2025-09-05 05:00: 0.9945
2025-09-05 06:00: 0.0055
2025-09-05 06:00: 0.9945
2025-09-05 07:00: 0.0055
2025-09-05 07:00: 0.9945
Trade Summary: Total trades: 179, Buy volume: 8686.68, Sell volume: 1340.41, Average price: 0.8551, Price range: 0.0010 - 0.9990
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike, wash_trading

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 582275
Question: Will Xavier Bertrand be the next Prime Minister of France?
Volume: 10027.089426
Price History:
2025-09-05 17:00: 0.9945
2025-09-05 17:00: 0.0055
2025-09-05 18:00: 0.0055
2025-09-05 18:00: 0.9945
2025-09-05 19:00: 0.0055
2025-09-05 19:00: 0.9945
2025-09-05 20:00: 0.0055
2025-09-05 20:00: 0.9945
2025-09-05 21:00: 0.0055
2025-09-05 21:00: 0.9945
2025-09-05 22:00: 0.0055
2025-09-05 22:00: 0.9945
2025-09-05 23:00: 0.0055
2025-09-05 23:00: 0.9945
2025-09-06 00:00: 0.0055
2025-09-06 00:00: 0.9945
2025-09-06 01:00: 0.0055
2025-09-06 01:00: 0.9945
2025-09-06 02:00: 0.9945
2025-09-06 02:00: 0.0055
2025-09-06 03:00: 0.0055
2025-09-06 03:00: 0.9945
2025-09-06 04:00: 0.9945
2025-09-06 04:00: 0.0055
2025-09-06 05:00: 0.9945
2025-09-06 05:00: 0.0055
2025-09-06 06:00: 0.9945
2025-09-06 06:00: 0.0055
2025-09-06 07:00: 0.9945
2025-09-06 07:00: 0.0055
Trade Summary: Total trades: 179, Buy volume: 8686.68, Sell volume: 1340.41, Average price: 0.8551, Price range: 0.0010 - 0.9990
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike, wash_trading

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 582275
Question: Will Xavier Bertrand be the next Prime Minister of France?
Volume: 10027.089426
Price History:
2025-09-06 17:00: 0.0055
2025-09-06 17:00: 0.9945
2025-09-06 18:00: 0.9945
2025-09-06 18:00: 0.0055
2025-09-06 19:00: 0.9945
2025-09-06 19:00: 0.0055
2025-09-06 20:00: 0.9945
2025-09-06 20:00: 0.0055
2025-09-06 21:00: 0.9945
2025-09-06 21:00: 0.0055
2025-09-06 22:00: 0.9945
2025-09-06 22:00: 0.0055
2025-09-06 23:00: 0.9945
2025-09-06 23:00: 0.0055
2025-09-07 00:00: 0.9945
2025-09-07 00:00: 0.0055
2025-09-07 01:00: 0.9945
2025-09-07 01:00: 0.0055
2025-09-07 02:00: 0.9945
2025-09-07 02:00: 0.0055
2025-09-07 03:00: 0.9945
2025-09-07 03:00: 0.0055
2025-09-07 04:00: 0.0055
2025-09-07 04:00: 0.9945
2025-09-07 05:00: 0.0055
2025-09-07 05:00: 0.9945
2025-09-07 06:00: 0.0055
2025-09-07 06:00: 0.9945
2025-09-07 07:00: 0.9945
2025-09-07 07:00: 0.0055
Trade Summary: Total trades: 5, Buy volume: 396.19, Sell volume: 13.29, Average price: 0.4054, Price range: 0.0070 - 0.9960
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike, wash_trading

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 582275
Question: Will Xavier Bertrand be the next Prime Minister of France?
Volume: 10027.089426
Price History:
2025-09-07 17:00: 0.9860
2025-09-07 17:00: 0.0140
2025-09-07 18:00: 0.9860
2025-09-07 18:00: 0.0140
2025-09-07 19:00: 0.1010
2025-09-07 19:00: 0.8990
2025-09-07 20:00: 0.1010
2025-09-07 20:00: 0.8990
2025-09-07 21:00: 0.8995
2025-09-07 21:00: 0.1005
2025-09-07 22:00: 0.8995
2025-09-07 22:00: 0.1005
2025-09-07 23:00: 0.8995
2025-09-07 23:00: 0.1005
2025-09-08 00:00: 0.1005
2025-09-08 00:00: 0.8995
2025-09-08 01:00: 0.1005
2025-09-08 01:00: 0.8995
2025-09-08 02:00: 0.8995
2025-09-08 02:00: 0.1005
2025-09-08 03:00: 0.8995
2025-09-08 03:00: 0.1005
2025-09-08 04:00: 0.1005
2025-09-08 04:00: 0.8995
2025-09-08 05:00: 0.1005
2025-09-08 05:00: 0.8995
2025-09-08 06:00: 0.1005
2025-09-08 06:00: 0.8995
2025-09-08 07:00: 0.0525
2025-09-08 07:00: 0.9475
Trade Summary: Total trades: 19, Buy volume: 704.42, Sell volume: 10.19, Average price: 0.7570, Price range: 0.0403 - 0.9982
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 582275
Question: Will Xavier Bertrand be the next Prime Minister of France?
Volume: 10027.089426
Price History:
2025-09-08 17:00: 0.0490
2025-09-08 17:00: 0.9510
2025-09-08 18:00: 0.0535
2025-09-08 18:00: 0.9465
2025-09-08 19:00: 0.0325
2025-09-08 19:00: 0.9675
2025-09-08 20:00: 0.0350
2025-09-08 20:00: 0.9650
2025-09-08 21:00: 0.0325
2025-09-08 21:00: 0.9675
2025-09-08 22:00: 0.0265
2025-09-08 22:00: 0.9735
2025-09-08 23:00: 0.0265
2025-09-08 23:00: 0.9735
2025-09-09 00:00: 0.9620
2025-09-09 00:00: 0.0380
2025-09-09 01:00: 0.0430
2025-09-09 01:00: 0.9570
2025-09-09 02:00: 0.0355
2025-09-09 02:00: 0.9645
2025-09-09 03:00: 0.0395
2025-09-09 03:00: 0.9605
2025-09-09 04:00: 0.0365
2025-09-09 04:00: 0.9635
2025-09-09 05:00: 0.0320
2025-09-09 05:00: 0.9680
2025-09-09 06:00: 0.0635
2025-09-09 06:00: 0.9365
2025-09-09 07:00: 0.0620
2025-09-09 07:00: 0.9380
Trade Summary: Total trades: 97, Buy volume: 5749.87, Sell volume: 695.84, Average price: 0.9096, Price range: 0.0010 - 0.9990
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 500661
Question: Will a candidate from another party win California US Senate Election?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 23081.639774
Price History:
2024-04-12 17:00: 0.0150
2024-04-13 00:00: 0.9850
2024-04-13 08:00: 0.0150
2024-04-13 15:00: 0.9850
2024-04-13 23:00: 0.0150
2024-04-14 06:00: 0.9850
2024-04-14 14:00: 0.0150
2024-04-14 21:00: 0.9850
2024-04-15 05:00: 0.0150
2024-04-15 12:00: 0.9850
2024-04-15 20:00: 0.0150
2024-04-16 03:00: 0.9850
2024-04-16 11:00: 0.0150
2024-04-16 18:00: 0.9850
2024-04-17 02:00: 0.0150
2024-04-17 09:00: 0.9850
2024-04-17 17:00: 0.0150
2024-04-18 00:00: 0.9850
2024-04-18 08:00: 0.0150
2024-04-18 15:00: 0.9850
2024-04-18 23:00: 0.0150
2024-04-19 06:00: 0.9850
2024-04-19 14:00: 0.0150
2024-04-19 21:00: 0.9850
2024-04-20 05:00: 0.0150
2024-04-20 12:00: 0.9850
2024-04-20 20:00: 0.0150
2024-04-21 03:00: 0.9850
2024-04-21 11:00: 0.0150
2024-04-21 18:00: 0.9850
2024-04-22 02:00: 0.0150
2024-04-22 09:00: 0.9850
2024-04-22 17:00: 0.0150
2024-04-23 00:00: 0.9850
2024-04-23 08:00: 0.0150
2024-04-23 15:00: 0.9850
2024-04-23 23:00: 0.0150
2024-04-24 06:00: 0.9850
2024-04-24 14:00: 0.0150
2024-04-24 21:00: 0.9850
2024-04-25 05:00: 0.0150
2024-04-25 12:00: 0.9850
2024-04-25 20:00: 0.0150
2024-04-26 03:00: 0.9850
2024-04-26 11:00: 0.0150
2024-04-26 18:00: 0.9850
2024-04-27 02:00: 0.0150
2024-04-27 09:00: 0.9850
2024-04-27 17:00: 0.0150
2024-04-28 00:00: 0.9850
Trade Summary: No trades available

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 500661
Question: Will a candidate from another party win California US Senate Election?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 23081.639774
Price History:
2024-04-28 17:00: 0.9850
2024-04-29 01:00: 0.0150
2024-04-29 08:00: 0.9850
2024-04-29 16:00: 0.0150
2024-04-29 23:00: 0.9850
2024-04-30 07:00: 0.0150
2024-04-30 14:00: 0.9850
2024-04-30 22:00: 0.0150
2024-05-01 05:00: 0.9850
2024-05-01 13:00: 0.0150
2024-05-01 21:00: 0.9850
2024-05-02 05:00: 0.0155
2024-05-02 12:00: 0.9845
2024-05-02 20:00: 0.0155
2024-05-03 03:00: 0.9845
2024-05-03 11:00: 0.0155
2024-05-03 18:00: 0.9845
2024-05-04 02:00: 0.0155
2024-05-04 09:00: 0.9845
2024-05-04 17:00: 0.0155
2024-05-05 00:00: 0.9845
2024-05-05 08:00: 0.0155
2024-05-05 15:00: 0.9845
2024-05-05 23:00: 0.0155
2024-05-06 06:00: 0.9845
2024-05-06 14:00: 0.0155
2024-05-06 21:00: 0.9845
2024-05-07 05:00: 0.0155
2024-05-07 12:00: 0.9845
2024-05-07 20:00: 0.0155
2024-05-08 03:00: 0.9845
2024-05-08 11:00: 0.0150
2024-05-08 18:00: 0.9850
2024-05-09 02:00: 0.0150
2024-05-09 09:00: 0.9845
2024-05-09 17:00: 0.0155
2024-05-10 00:00: 0.9845
2024-05-10 08:00: 0.0155
2024-05-10 15:00: 0.9845
2024-05-10 23:00: 0.0150
2024-05-11 06:00: 0.9850
2024-05-11 14:00: 0.0150
2024-05-11 21:00: 0.9850
2024-05-12 05:00: 0.0150
2024-05-12 12:00: 0.9850
2024-05-12 20:00: 0.0150
2024-05-13 03:00: 0.9850
2024-05-13 11:00: 0.0155
2024-05-13 18:00: 0.9845
2024-05-14 02:00: 0.0155
Trade Summary: No trades available

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 500661
Question: Will a candidate from another party win California US Senate Election?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 23081.639774
Price History:
2024-05-14 19:00: 0.0150
2024-05-15 02:00: 0.9850
2024-05-15 10:00: 0.0150
2024-05-15 17:00: 0.9850
2024-05-16 01:00: 0.0150
2024-05-16 08:00: 0.9850
2024-05-16 16:00: 0.0150
2024-05-16 23:00: 0.9850
2024-05-17 07:00: 0.0150
2024-05-17 14:00: 0.9850
2024-05-17 22:00: 0.0150
2024-05-18 05:00: 0.9850
2024-05-18 13:00: 0.0150
2024-05-18 20:00: 0.9850
2024-05-19 04:00: 0.0150
2024-05-19 11:00: 0.9850
2024-05-19 19:00: 0.0150
2024-05-20 02:00: 0.9850
2024-05-20 10:00: 0.0150
2024-05-20 17:00: 0.9850
2024-05-21 01:00: 0.0150
2024-05-21 08:00: 0.9850
2024-05-21 16:00: 0.0150
2024-05-21 23:00: 0.9850
2024-05-22 07:00: 0.0150
2024-05-22 14:00: 0.9850
2024-05-22 22:00: 0.0150
2024-05-23 05:00: 0.9850
2024-05-23 13:00: 0.0150
2024-05-23 20:00: 0.9850
2024-05-24 04:00: 0.0150
2024-05-24 11:00: 0.9850
2024-05-24 19:00: 0.0150
2024-05-25 02:00: 0.9850
2024-05-25 10:00: 0.0150
2024-05-25 17:00: 0.9850
2024-05-26 01:00: 0.0150
2024-05-26 08:00: 0.9850
2024-05-26 16:00: 0.0150
2024-05-26 23:00: 0.9850
2024-05-27 07:00: 0.0150
2024-05-27 14:00: 0.9850
2024-05-27 22:00: 0.0130
2024-05-28 05:00: 0.9870
2024-05-28 13:00: 0.0130
2024-05-28 20:00: 0.9870
2024-05-29 04:00: 0.0130
2024-05-29 11:00: 0.9870
2024-05-29 19:00: 0.0130
2024-05-30 02:00: 0.9870
Trade Summary: No trades available

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 500661
Question: Will a candidate from another party win California US Senate Election?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 23081.639774
Price History:
2024-05-30 19:00: 0.9870
2024-05-31 03:00: 0.0130
2024-05-31 10:00: 0.9870
2024-05-31 18:00: 0.0130
2024-06-01 01:00: 0.9870
2024-06-01 09:00: 0.0130
2024-06-01 16:00: 0.9870
2024-06-02 00:00: 0.0130
2024-06-02 07:00: 0.9870
2024-06-02 15:00: 0.0130
2024-06-02 22:00: 0.9870
2024-06-03 06:00: 0.0130
2024-06-03 13:00: 0.9870
2024-06-03 21:00: 0.0130
2024-06-04 04:00: 0.9870
2024-06-04 12:00: 0.0130
2024-06-04 19:00: 0.9870
2024-06-05 03:00: 0.0130
2024-06-05 10:00: 0.9870
2024-06-05 18:00: 0.0130
2024-06-06 01:00: 0.9870
2024-06-06 09:00: 0.0130
2024-06-06 16:00: 0.9870
2024-06-07 00:00: 0.0130
2024-06-07 07:00: 0.9870
2024-06-07 15:00: 0.0130
2024-06-07 22:00: 0.9870
2024-06-08 06:00: 0.0130
2024-06-08 13:00: 0.9870
2024-06-08 21:00: 0.0130
2024-06-09 04:00: 0.9870
2024-06-09 12:00: 0.0130
2024-06-09 19:00: 0.9870
2024-06-10 03:00: 0.0130
2024-06-10 10:00: 0.9870
2024-06-10 18:00: 0.0130
2024-06-11 01:00: 0.9870
2024-06-11 09:00: 0.0130
2024-06-11 16:00: 0.9870
2024-06-12 00:00: 0.0130
2024-06-12 07:00: 0.9870
2024-06-12 15:00: 0.0130
2024-06-12 22:00: 0.9870
2024-06-13 06:00: 0.0130
2024-06-13 13:00: 0.9870
2024-06-13 21:00: 0.0130
2024-06-14 04:00: 0.9870
2024-06-14 12:00: 0.0130
2024-06-14 19:00: 0.9870
2024-06-15 03:00: 0.0130
Trade Summary: No trades available

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 500661
Question: Will a candidate from another party win California US Senate Election?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 23081.639774
Price History:
2024-06-15 20:00: 0.0130
2024-06-16 03:00: 0.9870
2024-06-16 11:00: 0.0150
2024-06-16 18:00: 0.9850
2024-06-17 02:00: 0.0150
2024-06-17 09:00: 0.9850
2024-06-17 17:00: 0.0150
2024-06-18 00:00: 0.9850
2024-06-18 08:00: 0.0150
2024-06-18 15:00: 0.9850
2024-06-18 23:00: 0.0150
2024-06-19 06:00: 0.9850
2024-06-19 14:00: 0.0150
2024-06-19 21:00: 0.9850
2024-06-20 05:00: 0.0150
2024-06-20 12:00: 0.9850
2024-06-20 20:00: 0.0150
2024-06-21 03:00: 0.9850
2024-06-21 11:00: 0.0150
2024-06-21 18:00: 0.9850
2024-06-22 02:00: 0.0150
2024-06-22 09:00: 0.9850
2024-06-22 17:00: 0.0150
2024-06-23 00:00: 0.9850
2024-06-23 08:00: 0.0150
2024-06-23 15:00: 0.9850
2024-06-23 23:00: 0.0150
2024-06-24 06:00: 0.9850
2024-06-24 14:00: 0.0150
2024-06-24 21:00: 0.9850
2024-06-25 05:00: 0.0150
2024-06-25 12:00: 0.9850
2024-06-25 20:00: 0.0150
2024-06-26 03:00: 0.9850
2024-06-26 11:00: 0.0150
2024-06-26 18:00: 0.9850
2024-06-27 02:00: 0.0150
2024-06-27 09:00: 0.9850
2024-06-27 17:00: 0.0135
2024-06-28 00:00: 0.9850
2024-06-28 08:00: 0.0150
2024-06-28 15:00: 0.9850
2024-06-28 23:00: 0.0150
2024-06-29 06:00: 0.9850
2024-06-29 14:00: 0.0140
2024-06-29 21:00: 0.9860
2024-06-30 05:00: 0.0140
2024-06-30 12:00: 0.9860
2024-06-30 20:00: 0.0140
2024-07-01 03:00: 0.9860
Trade Summary: No trades available

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 500661
Question: Will a candidate from another party win California US Senate Election?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 23081.639774
Price History:
2024-07-01 20:00: 0.9860
2024-07-02 04:00: 0.0140
2024-07-02 11:00: 0.9860
2024-07-02 19:00: 0.0140
2024-07-03 02:00: 0.9860
2024-07-03 10:00: 0.0140
2024-07-03 17:00: 0.9860
2024-07-04 01:00: 0.0140
2024-07-04 08:00: 0.9865
2024-07-04 16:00: 0.0135
2024-07-04 23:00: 0.9865
2024-07-05 07:00: 0.0135
2024-07-05 14:00: 0.9865
2024-07-05 22:00: 0.0135
2024-07-06 05:00: 0.9865
2024-07-06 13:00: 0.0135
2024-07-06 20:00: 0.9865
2024-07-07 04:00: 0.0135
2024-07-07 11:00: 0.9865
2024-07-07 19:00: 0.0135
2024-07-08 02:00: 0.9865
2024-07-08 10:00: 0.0135
2024-07-08 17:00: 0.9865
2024-07-09 01:00: 0.0135
2024-07-09 08:00: 0.9865
2024-07-09 16:00: 0.0135
2024-07-09 23:00: 0.9865
2024-07-10 07:00: 0.0135
2024-07-10 14:00: 0.9865
2024-07-10 22:00: 0.0135
2024-07-11 05:00: 0.9865
2024-07-11 13:00: 0.0135
2024-07-11 20:00: 0.9865
2024-07-12 04:00: 0.0135
2024-07-12 11:00: 0.9865
2024-07-12 19:00: 0.0135
2024-07-13 02:00: 0.9865
2024-07-13 10:00: 0.0135
2024-07-13 17:00: 0.9870
2024-07-14 01:00: 0.0135
2024-07-14 08:00: 0.9870
2024-07-14 16:00: 0.0130
2024-07-14 23:00: 0.9870
2024-07-15 07:00: 0.0060
2024-07-15 14:00: 0.9940
2024-07-15 22:00: 0.0060
2024-07-16 05:00: 0.9940
2024-07-16 13:00: 0.0060
2024-07-16 20:00: 0.9940
2024-07-17 04:00: 0.0060
Trade Summary: No trades available

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 500661
Question: Will a candidate from another party win California US Senate Election?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 23081.639774
Price History:
2024-07-17 21:00: 0.0060
2024-07-18 04:00: 0.9940
2024-07-18 12:00: 0.0060
2024-07-18 19:00: 0.9940
2024-07-19 03:00: 0.0060
2024-07-19 10:00: 0.9940
2024-07-19 18:00: 0.0060
2024-07-20 01:00: 0.9940
2024-07-20 09:00: 0.0060
2024-07-20 16:00: 0.9940
2024-07-21 00:00: 0.0060
2024-07-21 07:00: 0.9940
2024-07-21 16:00: 0.0060
2024-07-21 23:00: 0.9940
2024-07-22 07:00: 0.0060
2024-07-22 14:00: 0.9940
2024-07-22 22:00: 0.0060
2024-07-23 05:00: 0.9920
2024-07-23 13:00: 0.0080
2024-07-23 20:00: 0.9920
2024-07-24 04:00: 0.0080
2024-07-24 11:00: 0.9920
2024-07-24 19:00: 0.0080
2024-07-25 02:00: 0.9920
2024-07-25 10:00: 0.0080
2024-07-25 17:00: 0.9920
2024-07-26 01:00: 0.0080
2024-07-26 08:00: 0.9915
2024-07-26 16:00: 0.0085
2024-07-26 23:00: 0.9915
2024-07-27 07:00: 0.0085
2024-07-27 14:00: 0.9915
2024-07-27 22:00: 0.0085
2024-07-28 05:00: 0.9915
2024-07-28 13:00: 0.0085
2024-07-28 20:00: 0.9910
2024-07-29 04:00: 0.0090
2024-07-29 11:00: 0.9910
2024-07-29 19:00: 0.0090
2024-07-30 02:00: 0.9910
2024-07-30 10:00: 0.0090
2024-07-30 17:00: 0.9910
2024-07-31 01:00: 0.0090
2024-07-31 08:00: 0.9910
2024-07-31 16:00: 0.0100
2024-07-31 23:00: 0.9900
2024-08-01 07:00: 0.0095
2024-08-01 14:00: 0.9905
2024-08-01 22:00: 0.0095
2024-08-02 05:00: 0.9905
Trade Summary: No trades available

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 500661
Question: Will a candidate from another party win California US Senate Election?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 23081.639774
Price History:
2024-08-02 22:00: 0.9905
2024-08-03 06:00: 0.0100
2024-08-03 13:00: 0.9895
2024-08-03 21:00: 0.0105
2024-08-04 04:00: 0.9885
2024-08-04 12:00: 0.0120
2024-08-04 19:00: 0.9875
2024-08-05 03:00: 0.0125
2024-08-05 10:00: 0.9910
2024-08-05 18:00: 0.0090
2024-08-06 01:00: 0.9910
2024-08-06 09:00: 0.0090
2024-08-06 16:00: 0.9910
2024-08-07 00:00: 0.0090
2024-08-07 07:00: 0.9910
2024-08-07 15:00: 0.0090
2024-08-07 22:00: 0.9910
2024-08-08 06:00: 0.0090
2024-08-08 13:00: 0.9910
2024-08-08 21:00: 0.0090
2024-08-09 04:00: 0.9910
2024-08-09 12:00: 0.0100
2024-08-09 19:00: 0.9895
2024-08-10 03:00: 0.0110
2024-08-10 10:00: 0.9890
2024-08-10 18:00: 0.0110
2024-08-11 01:00: 0.9890
2024-08-11 09:00: 0.0120
2024-08-11 16:00: 0.9880
2024-08-12 00:00: 0.0120
2024-08-12 07:00: 0.9905
2024-08-12 15:00: 0.0095
2024-08-12 22:00: 0.9905
2024-08-13 06:00: 0.0070
2024-08-13 13:00: 0.9935
2024-08-13 21:00: 0.0065
2024-08-14 04:00: 0.9935
2024-08-14 12:00: 0.0065
2024-08-14 19:00: 0.9935
2024-08-15 03:00: 0.0065
2024-08-15 10:00: 0.9935
2024-08-15 18:00: 0.0065
2024-08-16 01:00: 0.9935
2024-08-16 09:00: 0.0065
2024-08-16 16:00: 0.9930
2024-08-17 00:00: 0.0070
2024-08-17 07:00: 0.9935
2024-08-17 15:00: 0.0065
2024-08-17 22:00: 0.9935
2024-08-18 06:00: 0.0065
Trade Summary: No trades available

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 500661
Question: Will a candidate from another party win California US Senate Election?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 23081.639774
Price History:
2024-08-18 23:00: 0.0065
2024-08-19 06:00: 0.9935
2024-08-19 14:00: 0.0065
2024-08-19 21:00: 0.9935
2024-08-20 05:00: 0.0060
2024-08-20 12:00: 0.9940
2024-08-20 20:00: 0.0060
2024-08-21 03:00: 0.9930
2024-08-21 11:00: 0.0070
2024-08-21 18:00: 0.9930
2024-08-22 02:00: 0.0070
2024-08-22 09:00: 0.9930
2024-08-22 17:00: 0.0070
2024-08-23 00:00: 0.9930
2024-08-23 08:00: 0.0070
2024-08-23 15:00: 0.9930
2024-08-23 23:00: 0.0070
2024-08-24 06:00: 0.9930
2024-08-24 14:00: 0.0065
2024-08-24 21:00: 0.9945
2024-08-25 05:00: 0.0055
2024-08-25 12:00: 0.9955
2024-08-25 20:00: 0.0035
2024-08-26 03:00: 0.9955
2024-08-26 11:00: 0.0045
2024-08-26 18:00: 0.9960
2024-08-27 02:00: 0.0065
2024-08-27 09:00: 0.9920
2024-08-27 17:00: 0.0070
2024-08-28 00:00: 0.9930
2024-08-28 08:00: 0.0070
2024-08-28 15:00: 0.9950
2024-08-28 23:00: 0.0050
2024-08-29 06:00: 0.9950
2024-08-29 14:00: 0.0045
2024-08-29 21:00: 0.9960
2024-08-30 05:00: 0.0040
2024-08-30 12:00: 0.9960
2024-08-30 20:00: 0.0040
2024-08-31 03:00: 0.9960
2024-08-31 11:00: 0.0040
2024-08-31 18:00: 0.9960
2024-09-01 02:00: 0.0040
2024-09-01 09:00: 0.9955
2024-09-01 17:00: 0.0045
2024-09-02 00:00: 0.9955
2024-09-02 08:00: 0.0045
2024-09-02 15:00: 0.9955
2024-09-02 23:00: 0.0045
2024-09-03 06:00: 0.9950
Trade Summary: No trades available

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 500661
Question: Will a candidate from another party win California US Senate Election?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 23081.639774
Price History:
2024-09-03 23:00: 0.9950
2024-09-04 07:00: 0.0050
2024-09-04 14:00: 0.9950
2024-09-04 22:00: 0.0050
2024-09-05 05:00: 0.9950
2024-09-05 13:00: 0.0050
2024-09-05 20:00: 0.9950
2024-09-06 04:00: 0.0050
2024-09-06 11:00: 0.9950
2024-09-06 19:00: 0.0050
2024-09-07 02:00: 0.9950
2024-09-07 10:00: 0.0050
2024-09-07 17:00: 0.9950
2024-09-08 01:00: 0.0050
2024-09-08 08:00: 0.9950
2024-09-08 16:00: 0.0050
2024-09-08 23:00: 0.9950
2024-09-09 07:00: 0.0050
2024-09-09 14:00: 0.9950
2024-09-09 22:00: 0.0050
2024-09-10 05:00: 0.9950
2024-09-10 13:00: 0.0050
2024-09-10 20:00: 0.9950
2024-09-11 04:00: 0.0050
2024-09-11 11:00: 0.9950
2024-09-11 19:00: 0.0050
2024-09-12 02:00: 0.9950
2024-09-12 10:00: 0.0050
2024-09-12 17:00: 0.9950
2024-09-13 01:00: 0.0050
2024-09-13 08:00: 0.9950
2024-09-13 16:00: 0.0050
2024-09-13 23:00: 0.9950
2024-09-14 07:00: 0.0055
2024-09-14 14:00: 0.9945
2024-09-14 22:00: 0.0055
2024-09-15 05:00: 0.9945
2024-09-15 13:00: 0.0055
2024-09-15 20:00: 0.9945
2024-09-16 04:00: 0.0055
2024-09-16 11:00: 0.9945
2024-09-16 19:00: 0.0055
2024-09-17 02:00: 0.9945
2024-09-17 10:00: 0.0055
2024-09-17 17:00: 0.9945
2024-09-18 01:00: 0.0055
2024-09-18 08:00: 0.9945
2024-09-18 16:00: 0.0055
2024-09-18 23:00: 0.9945
2024-09-19 07:00: 0.0055
Trade Summary: No trades available

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 500661
Question: Will a candidate from another party win California US Senate Election?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 23081.639774
Price History:
2024-09-20 00:00: 0.0055
2024-09-20 07:00: 0.9945
2024-09-20 15:00: 0.0055
2024-09-20 22:00: 0.9945
2024-09-21 06:00: 0.0055
2024-09-21 13:00: 0.9945
2024-09-21 21:00: 0.0055
2024-09-22 04:00: 0.9945
2024-09-22 12:00: 0.0055
2024-09-22 19:00: 0.9945
2024-09-23 03:00: 0.0055
2024-09-23 10:00: 0.9945
2024-09-23 18:00: 0.0055
2024-09-24 01:00: 0.9945
2024-09-24 09:00: 0.0055
2024-09-24 16:00: 0.9945
2024-09-25 00:00: 0.0055
2024-09-25 07:00: 0.9945
2024-09-25 15:00: 0.0060
2024-09-25 22:00: 0.9945
2024-09-26 06:00: 0.0055
2024-09-26 13:00: 0.9945
2024-09-26 21:00: 0.0055
2024-09-27 04:00: 0.9945
2024-09-27 12:00: 0.0055
2024-09-27 19:00: 0.9945
2024-09-28 03:00: 0.0055
2024-09-28 10:00: 0.9945
2024-09-28 18:00: 0.0055
2024-09-29 01:00: 0.9945
2024-09-29 09:00: 0.0055
2024-09-29 16:00: 0.9945
2024-09-30 00:00: 0.0055
2024-09-30 07:00: 0.9945
2024-09-30 15:00: 0.0060
2024-09-30 22:00: 0.9940
2024-10-01 06:00: 0.0055
2024-10-01 13:00: 0.9945
2024-10-01 21:00: 0.0055
2024-10-02 04:00: 0.9945
2024-10-02 11:00: 0.0055
2024-10-02 18:00: 0.9945
2024-10-03 02:00: 0.0055
2024-10-03 09:00: 0.9945
2024-10-03 17:00: 0.0055
2024-10-04 00:00: 0.9945
2024-10-04 08:00: 0.0055
2024-10-04 15:00: 0.9945
2024-10-04 23:00: 0.0055
2024-10-05 06:00: 0.9945
Trade Summary: No trades available

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 500661
Question: Will a candidate from another party win California US Senate Election?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 23081.639774
Price History:
2024-10-05 23:00: 0.9945
2024-10-06 07:00: 0.0060
2024-10-06 14:00: 0.9945
2024-10-06 22:00: 0.0055
2024-10-07 05:00: 0.9945
2024-10-07 13:00: 0.0055
2024-10-07 20:00: 0.9955
2024-10-08 04:00: 0.0045
2024-10-08 11:00: 0.9955
2024-10-08 19:00: 0.0045
2024-10-09 02:00: 0.9955
2024-10-09 10:00: 0.0045
2024-10-09 17:00: 0.9960
2024-10-10 01:00: 0.0040
2024-10-10 08:00: 0.9960
2024-10-10 16:00: 0.0040
2024-10-10 23:00: 0.9960
2024-10-11 07:00: 0.0040
2024-10-11 14:00: 0.9960
2024-10-11 22:00: 0.0040
2024-10-12 05:00: 0.9960
2024-10-12 13:00: 0.0040
2024-10-12 20:00: 0.9960
2024-10-13 04:00: 0.0040
2024-10-13 11:00: 0.9965
2024-10-13 19:00: 0.0040
2024-10-14 02:00: 0.9960
2024-10-14 10:00: 0.0040
2024-10-14 17:00: 0.9960
2024-10-15 01:00: 0.0040
2024-10-15 08:00: 0.9960
2024-10-15 16:00: 0.0040
2024-10-15 23:00: 0.9960
2024-10-16 07:00: 0.0040
2024-10-16 14:00: 0.9965
2024-10-16 22:00: 0.2355
2024-10-17 05:00: 0.8560
2024-10-17 13:00: 0.0240
2024-10-17 20:00: 0.9875
2024-10-18 04:00: 0.0115
2024-10-18 11:00: 0.9920
2024-10-18 19:00: 0.0075
2024-10-19 02:00: 0.9930
2024-10-19 10:00: 0.0070
2024-10-19 17:00: 0.9970
2024-10-20 01:00: 0.0030
2024-10-20 08:00: 0.9970
2024-10-20 16:00: 0.0030
2024-10-20 23:00: 0.9975
2024-10-21 07:00: 0.0025
Trade Summary: No trades available

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 500661
Question: Will a candidate from another party win California US Senate Election?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 23081.639774
Price History:
2024-10-22 00:00: 0.0025
2024-10-22 07:00: 0.9975
2024-10-22 15:00: 0.0025
2024-10-22 22:00: 0.9975
2024-10-23 06:00: 0.0025
2024-10-23 13:00: 0.9975
2024-10-23 21:00: 0.0025
2024-10-24 04:00: 0.9975
2024-10-24 12:00: 0.0025
2024-10-24 19:00: 0.9975
2024-10-25 03:00: 0.0025
2024-10-25 10:00: 0.9970
2024-10-25 18:00: 0.0030
2024-10-26 01:00: 0.9970
2024-10-26 09:00: 0.0030
2024-10-26 16:00: 0.9970
2024-10-27 00:00: 0.0030
2024-10-27 07:00: 0.9970
2024-10-27 15:00: 0.0030
2024-10-27 22:00: 0.9970
2024-10-28 06:00: 0.0030
2024-10-28 13:00: 0.9925
2024-10-28 21:00: 0.0085
2024-10-29 04:00: 0.9910
2024-10-29 12:00: 0.0090
2024-10-29 19:00: 0.9930
2024-10-30 03:00: 0.0060
2024-10-30 10:00: 0.9925
2024-10-30 18:00: 0.0065
2024-10-31 01:00: 0.9935
2024-10-31 09:00: 0.0080
2024-10-31 16:00: 0.9925
2024-11-01 00:00: 0.0075
2024-11-01 07:00: 0.9925
2024-11-01 15:00: 0.0085
2024-11-01 22:00: 0.9930
2024-11-02 06:00: 0.0070
2024-11-02 13:00: 0.9930
2024-11-02 21:00: 0.0070
2024-11-03 03:00: 0.9930
2024-11-03 11:00: 0.0070
2024-11-03 18:00: 0.9930
2024-11-04 02:00: 0.0070
2024-11-04 09:00: 0.9930
2024-11-04 17:00: 0.0070
2024-11-05 00:00: 0.9930
2024-11-05 08:00: 0.0065
2024-11-05 15:00: 0.6150
2024-11-06 00:00: 0.4690
2024-11-06 07:00: 0.5270
Trade Summary: No trades available

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 524348
Question: Will Karoline Leavitt say "Putin" 3+ times during next White House press briefing?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 3408.054773
Price History:
2025-02-21 14:00: 0.5300
2025-02-21 14:00: 0.4700
2025-02-21 15:00: 0.5050
2025-02-21 15:00: 0.4950
2025-02-21 16:00: 0.4900
2025-02-21 16:00: 0.5100
2025-02-21 17:00: 0.4950
2025-02-21 17:00: 0.5050
2025-02-21 18:00: 0.5000
2025-02-21 18:00: 0.5000
2025-02-21 19:00: 0.5150
2025-02-21 19:00: 0.4850
2025-02-21 20:00: 0.5100
2025-02-21 20:00: 0.4900
2025-02-21 21:00: 0.5100
Trade Summary: Total trades: 21, Buy volume: 3408.05, Sell volume: 0.00, Average price: 0.7055, Price range: 0.3994 - 0.9990

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 524348
Question: Will Karoline Leavitt say "Putin" 3+ times during next White House press briefing?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 3408.054773
Price History:
2025-02-21 21:00: 0.4900
2025-02-21 22:00: 0.5050
2025-02-21 22:00: 0.4950
2025-02-21 23:00: 0.5050
2025-02-21 23:00: 0.4950
2025-02-22 00:00: 0.5050
2025-02-22 00:00: 0.4950
2025-02-22 01:00: 0.2900
2025-02-22 01:00: 0.7100
2025-02-22 02:00: 0.2900
2025-02-22 02:00: 0.7100
2025-02-22 03:00: 0.2900
2025-02-22 03:00: 0.7100
2025-02-22 04:00: 0.2900
2025-02-22 04:00: 0.7100
Trade Summary: Total trades: 21, Buy volume: 3408.05, Sell volume: 0.00, Average price: 0.7055, Price range: 0.3994 - 0.9990

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 524348
Question: Will Karoline Leavitt say "Putin" 3+ times during next White House press briefing?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 3408.054773
Price History:
2025-02-22 05:00: 0.2900
2025-02-22 05:00: 0.7100
2025-02-22 06:00: 0.2850
2025-02-22 06:00: 0.7150
2025-02-22 07:00: 0.2850
2025-02-22 07:00: 0.7150
2025-02-22 08:00: 0.5850
2025-02-22 08:00: 0.4150
2025-02-22 09:00: 0.5750
2025-02-22 09:00: 0.4250
2025-02-22 10:00: 0.5900
2025-02-22 10:00: 0.4100
2025-02-22 11:00: 0.5900
2025-02-22 11:00: 0.4100
2025-02-22 12:00: 0.5900
Trade Summary: Total trades: 1, Buy volume: 35.13, Sell volume: 0.00, Average price: 0.3994, Price range: 0.3994 - 0.3994

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 524348
Question: Will Karoline Leavitt say "Putin" 3+ times during next White House press briefing?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 3408.054773
Price History:
2025-02-22 12:00: 0.4100
2025-02-22 13:00: 0.5900
2025-02-22 13:00: 0.4100
2025-02-22 14:00: 0.6300
2025-02-22 14:00: 0.3700
2025-02-22 15:00: 0.6300
2025-02-22 15:00: 0.3700
2025-02-22 16:00: 0.6000
2025-02-22 16:00: 0.4000
2025-02-22 17:00: 0.5850
2025-02-22 17:00: 0.4150
2025-02-22 18:00: 0.5850
2025-02-22 18:00: 0.4150
2025-02-22 19:00: 0.5850
2025-02-22 19:00: 0.4150
Trade Summary: Total trades: 21, Buy volume: 3408.05, Sell volume: 0.00, Average price: 0.7055, Price range: 0.3994 - 0.9990

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 524348
Question: Will Karoline Leavitt say "Putin" 3+ times during next White House press briefing?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 3408.054773
Price History:
2025-02-22 20:00: 0.5850
2025-02-22 20:00: 0.4150
2025-02-22 21:00: 0.5850
2025-02-22 21:00: 0.4150
2025-02-22 22:00: 0.5850
2025-02-22 22:00: 0.4150
2025-02-22 23:00: 0.5850
2025-02-22 23:00: 0.4150
2025-02-23 00:00: 0.5850
2025-02-23 00:00: 0.4150
2025-02-23 01:00: 0.5850
2025-02-23 01:00: 0.4150
2025-02-23 02:00: 0.5850
2025-02-23 02:00: 0.4150
2025-02-23 03:00: 0.5650
Trade Summary: Total trades: 21, Buy volume: 3408.05, Sell volume: 0.00, Average price: 0.7055, Price range: 0.3994 - 0.9990

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 524348
Question: Will Karoline Leavitt say "Putin" 3+ times during next White House press briefing?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 3408.054773
Price History:
2025-02-23 03:00: 0.4350
2025-02-23 04:00: 0.5650
2025-02-23 04:00: 0.4350
2025-02-23 05:00: 0.5500
2025-02-23 05:00: 0.4500
2025-02-23 06:00: 0.5500
2025-02-23 06:00: 0.4500
2025-02-23 07:00: 0.5500
2025-02-23 07:00: 0.4500
2025-02-23 08:00: 0.4450
2025-02-23 08:00: 0.5550
2025-02-23 09:00: 0.4300
2025-02-23 09:00: 0.5700
2025-02-23 10:00: 0.4500
2025-02-23 10:00: 0.5500
Trade Summary: Total trades: 2, Buy volume: 20.00, Sell volume: 0.00, Average price: 0.6550, Price range: 0.6200 - 0.6900

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 524348
Question: Will Karoline Leavitt say "Putin" 3+ times during next White House press briefing?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 3408.054773
Price History:
2025-02-23 11:00: 0.4350
2025-02-23 11:00: 0.5650
2025-02-23 12:00: 0.5200
2025-02-23 12:00: 0.4800
2025-02-23 13:00: 0.4900
2025-02-23 13:00: 0.5100
2025-02-23 14:00: 0.4100
2025-02-23 14:00: 0.5900
2025-02-23 15:00: 0.4600
2025-02-23 15:00: 0.5400
2025-02-23 16:00: 0.4150
2025-02-23 16:00: 0.5850
2025-02-23 17:00: 0.4300
2025-02-23 17:00: 0.5700
2025-02-23 18:00: 0.4000
Trade Summary: Total trades: 21, Buy volume: 3408.05, Sell volume: 0.00, Average price: 0.7055, Price range: 0.3994 - 0.9990

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 524348
Question: Will Karoline Leavitt say "Putin" 3+ times during next White House press briefing?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 3408.054773
Price History:
2025-02-23 18:00: 0.6000
2025-02-23 19:00: 0.4250
2025-02-23 19:00: 0.5750
2025-02-23 20:00: 0.4000
2025-02-23 20:00: 0.6000
2025-02-23 21:00: 0.3600
2025-02-23 21:00: 0.6400
2025-02-23 22:00: 0.3800
2025-02-23 22:00: 0.6200
2025-02-23 23:00: 0.4000
2025-02-23 23:00: 0.6000
2025-02-24 00:00: 0.3700
2025-02-24 00:00: 0.6300
2025-02-24 01:00: 0.3900
2025-02-24 01:00: 0.6100
Trade Summary: Total trades: 21, Buy volume: 3408.05, Sell volume: 0.00, Average price: 0.7055, Price range: 0.3994 - 0.9990

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 524348
Question: Will Karoline Leavitt say "Putin" 3+ times during next White House press briefing?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 3408.054773
Price History:
2025-02-24 02:00: 0.3600
2025-02-24 02:00: 0.6400
2025-02-24 03:00: 0.3800
2025-02-24 03:00: 0.6200
2025-02-24 04:00: 0.4000
2025-02-24 04:00: 0.6000
2025-02-24 05:00: 0.3600
2025-02-24 05:00: 0.6400
2025-02-24 06:00: 0.3800
2025-02-24 06:00: 0.6200
2025-02-24 07:00: 0.4000
2025-02-24 07:00: 0.6000
2025-02-24 08:00: 0.3600
2025-02-24 08:00: 0.6400
2025-02-24 09:00: 0.3900
Trade Summary: Total trades: 21, Buy volume: 3408.05, Sell volume: 0.00, Average price: 0.7055, Price range: 0.3994 - 0.9990

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 524348
Question: Will Karoline Leavitt say "Putin" 3+ times during next White House press briefing?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 3408.054773
Price History:
2025-02-24 09:00: 0.6100
2025-02-24 10:00: 0.3600
2025-02-24 10:00: 0.6400
2025-02-24 11:00: 0.3700
2025-02-24 11:00: 0.6300
2025-02-24 12:00: 0.4000
2025-02-24 12:00: 0.6000
2025-02-24 13:00: 0.3600
2025-02-24 13:00: 0.6400
2025-02-24 14:00: 0.3800
2025-02-24 14:00: 0.6200
2025-02-24 15:00: 0.4100
2025-02-24 15:00: 0.5900
2025-02-24 16:00: 0.3700
2025-02-24 16:00: 0.6300
Trade Summary: Total trades: 2, Buy volume: 4.44, Sell volume: 0.00, Average price: 0.4500, Price range: 0.4500 - 0.4500

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 524348
Question: Will Karoline Leavitt say "Putin" 3+ times during next White House press briefing?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 3408.054773
Price History:
2025-02-24 17:00: 0.4000
2025-02-24 17:00: 0.6000
2025-02-24 18:00: 0.3600
2025-02-24 18:00: 0.6400
2025-02-24 19:00: 0.3800
2025-02-24 19:00: 0.6200
2025-02-24 20:00: 0.3600
2025-02-24 20:00: 0.6400
2025-02-24 21:00: 0.3800
2025-02-24 21:00: 0.6200
2025-02-24 22:00: 0.4000
2025-02-24 22:00: 0.6000
2025-02-24 23:00: 0.3600
2025-02-24 23:00: 0.6400
2025-02-25 00:00: 0.3850
Trade Summary: Total trades: 21, Buy volume: 3408.05, Sell volume: 0.00, Average price: 0.7055, Price range: 0.3994 - 0.9990

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 524348
Question: Will Karoline Leavitt say "Putin" 3+ times during next White House press briefing?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 3408.054773
Price History:
2025-02-25 00:00: 0.6150
2025-02-25 01:00: 0.4500
2025-02-25 01:00: 0.5500
2025-02-25 02:00: 0.4400
2025-02-25 02:00: 0.5600
2025-02-25 03:00: 0.4400
2025-02-25 03:00: 0.5600
2025-02-25 04:00: 0.4400
2025-02-25 04:00: 0.5600
2025-02-25 05:00: 0.4400
2025-02-25 05:00: 0.5600
2025-02-25 06:00: 0.5350
2025-02-25 06:00: 0.4650
2025-02-25 07:00: 0.4950
2025-02-25 07:00: 0.5050
Trade Summary: Total trades: 21, Buy volume: 3408.05, Sell volume: 0.00, Average price: 0.7055, Price range: 0.3994 - 0.9990

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 524348
Question: Will Karoline Leavitt say "Putin" 3+ times during next White House press briefing?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 3408.054773
Price History:
2025-02-25 08:00: 0.4550
2025-02-25 08:00: 0.5450
2025-02-25 09:00: 0.5400
2025-02-25 09:00: 0.4600
2025-02-25 10:00: 0.5100
2025-02-25 10:00: 0.4900
2025-02-25 11:00: 0.5000
2025-02-25 11:00: 0.5000
2025-02-25 12:00: 0.4850
2025-02-25 12:00: 0.5150
2025-02-25 13:00: 0.5600
2025-02-25 13:00: 0.4400
2025-02-25 14:00: 0.0055
2025-02-25 14:00: 0.9945
2025-02-25 15:00: 0.0010
Trade Summary: Total trades: 16, Buy volume: 3348.48, Sell volume: 0.00, Average price: 0.7629, Price range: 0.5200 - 0.9990

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 582277
Question: Will Valérie Pécresse be the next Prime Minister of France?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 3762.533598
Price History:
2025-08-27 17:00: 0.5250
2025-08-27 17:00: 0.4750
2025-08-27 18:00: 0.2500
2025-08-27 18:00: 0.7500
2025-08-27 19:00: 0.1200
2025-08-27 19:00: 0.8800
2025-08-27 20:00: 0.9250
2025-08-27 20:00: 0.0750
2025-08-27 21:00: 0.0750
2025-08-27 21:00: 0.9250
2025-08-27 22:00: 0.0750
2025-08-27 22:00: 0.9250
2025-08-27 23:00: 0.0650
2025-08-27 23:00: 0.9350
2025-08-28 00:00: 0.0550
2025-08-28 00:00: 0.9450
2025-08-28 01:00: 0.0600
2025-08-28 01:00: 0.9400
2025-08-28 02:00: 0.0550
2025-08-28 02:00: 0.9450
2025-08-28 03:00: 0.9750
2025-08-28 03:00: 0.0250
2025-08-28 04:00: 0.0250
2025-08-28 04:00: 0.9750
2025-08-28 05:00: 0.9745
2025-08-28 05:00: 0.0255
2025-08-28 06:00: 0.9745
2025-08-28 06:00: 0.0255
2025-08-28 07:00: 0.0250
2025-08-28 07:00: 0.9750
2025-08-28 08:00: 0.9745
2025-08-28 08:00: 0.0255
2025-08-28 09:00: 0.0250
2025-08-28 09:00: 0.9750
2025-08-28 10:00: 0.0255
2025-08-28 10:00: 0.9745
2025-08-28 11:00: 0.0255
2025-08-28 11:00: 0.9745
2025-08-28 12:00: 0.0250
2025-08-28 12:00: 0.9750
2025-08-28 13:00: 0.9745
2025-08-28 13:00: 0.0255
2025-08-28 14:00: 0.9750
2025-08-28 14:00: 0.0250
2025-08-28 15:00: 0.9750
2025-08-28 15:00: 0.0250
2025-08-28 16:00: 0.0250
2025-08-28 16:00: 0.9750
Trade Summary: Total trades: 20, Buy volume: 952.09, Sell volume: 150.00, Average price: 0.7484, Price range: 0.0217 - 0.9790

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 582277
Question: Will Valérie Pécresse be the next Prime Minister of France?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 3762.533598
Price History:
2025-08-28 17:00: 0.9750
2025-08-28 17:00: 0.0250
2025-08-28 18:00: 0.0250
2025-08-28 18:00: 0.9750
2025-08-28 19:00: 0.0245
2025-08-28 19:00: 0.9755
2025-08-28 20:00: 0.0225
2025-08-28 20:00: 0.9775
2025-08-28 21:00: 0.9775
2025-08-28 21:00: 0.0225
2025-08-28 22:00: 0.0225
2025-08-28 22:00: 0.9775
2025-08-28 23:00: 0.9775
2025-08-28 23:00: 0.0225
2025-08-29 00:00: 0.9775
2025-08-29 00:00: 0.0225
2025-08-29 01:00: 0.0225
2025-08-29 01:00: 0.9775
2025-08-29 02:00: 0.0225
2025-08-29 02:00: 0.9775
2025-08-29 03:00: 0.9775
2025-08-29 03:00: 0.0225
2025-08-29 04:00: 0.9815
2025-08-29 04:00: 0.0185
2025-08-29 05:00: 0.9815
2025-08-29 05:00: 0.0185
2025-08-29 06:00: 0.9810
2025-08-29 06:00: 0.0190
2025-08-29 07:00: 0.9815
2025-08-29 07:00: 0.0185
2025-08-29 08:00: 0.0190
2025-08-29 08:00: 0.9810
2025-08-29 09:00: 0.0160
2025-08-29 09:00: 0.9840
2025-08-29 10:00: 0.9825
2025-08-29 10:00: 0.0175
2025-08-29 11:00: 0.9840
2025-08-29 11:00: 0.0160
2025-08-29 12:00: 0.9840
2025-08-29 12:00: 0.0160
2025-08-29 13:00: 0.9840
2025-08-29 13:00: 0.0160
2025-08-29 14:00: 0.0160
2025-08-29 14:00: 0.9840
2025-08-29 15:00: 0.9840
2025-08-29 15:00: 0.0160
2025-08-29 16:00: 0.0160
2025-08-29 16:00: 0.9840
Trade Summary: Total trades: 13, Buy volume: 237.39, Sell volume: 301.09, Average price: 0.9109, Price range: 0.0208 - 0.9880

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 582277
Question: Will Valérie Pécresse be the next Prime Minister of France?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 3762.533598
Price History:
2025-08-29 17:00: 0.0160
2025-08-29 17:00: 0.9840
2025-08-29 18:00: 0.0155
2025-08-29 18:00: 0.9845
2025-08-29 19:00: 0.0160
2025-08-29 19:00: 0.9840
2025-08-29 20:00: 0.0160
2025-08-29 20:00: 0.9840
2025-08-29 21:00: 0.9840
2025-08-29 21:00: 0.0160
2025-08-29 22:00: 0.0160
2025-08-29 22:00: 0.9840
2025-08-29 23:00: 0.0160
2025-08-29 23:00: 0.9840
2025-08-30 00:00: 0.9840
2025-08-30 00:00: 0.0160
2025-08-30 01:00: 0.0160
2025-08-30 01:00: 0.9840
2025-08-30 02:00: 0.0160
2025-08-30 02:00: 0.9840
2025-08-30 03:00: 0.0160
2025-08-30 03:00: 0.9840
2025-08-30 04:00: 0.0160
2025-08-30 04:00: 0.9840
2025-08-30 05:00: 0.0160
2025-08-30 05:00: 0.9840
2025-08-30 06:00: 0.0160
2025-08-30 06:00: 0.9840
2025-08-30 07:00: 0.0160
2025-08-30 07:00: 0.9840
2025-08-30 08:00: 0.0160
2025-08-30 08:00: 0.9840
2025-08-30 09:00: 0.0160
2025-08-30 09:00: 0.9840
2025-08-30 10:00: 0.0160
2025-08-30 10:00: 0.9840
2025-08-30 11:00: 0.0160
2025-08-30 11:00: 0.9840
2025-08-30 12:00: 0.0155
2025-08-30 12:00: 0.9845
2025-08-30 13:00: 0.0130
2025-08-30 13:00: 0.9870
2025-08-30 14:00: 0.0135
2025-08-30 14:00: 0.9865
2025-08-30 15:00: 0.9895
2025-08-30 15:00: 0.0105
2025-08-30 16:00: 0.9895
2025-08-30 16:00: 0.0105
Trade Summary: Total trades: 11, Buy volume: 291.83, Sell volume: 134.99, Average price: 0.9002, Price range: 0.0110 - 0.9900

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 582277
Question: Will Valérie Pécresse be the next Prime Minister of France?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 3762.533598
Price History:
2025-08-30 17:00: 0.0110
2025-08-30 17:00: 0.9890
2025-08-30 18:00: 0.0110
2025-08-30 18:00: 0.9890
2025-08-30 19:00: 0.0110
2025-08-30 19:00: 0.9890
2025-08-30 20:00: 0.0110
2025-08-30 20:00: 0.9890
2025-08-30 21:00: 0.0110
2025-08-30 21:00: 0.9890
2025-08-30 22:00: 0.0110
2025-08-30 22:00: 0.9890
2025-08-30 23:00: 0.0110
2025-08-30 23:00: 0.9890
2025-08-31 00:00: 0.0110
2025-08-31 00:00: 0.9890
2025-08-31 01:00: 0.0110
2025-08-31 01:00: 0.9890
2025-08-31 02:00: 0.0110
2025-08-31 02:00: 0.9890
2025-08-31 03:00: 0.9890
2025-08-31 03:00: 0.0110
2025-08-31 04:00: 0.0075
2025-08-31 04:00: 0.9925
2025-08-31 05:00: 0.9925
2025-08-31 05:00: 0.0075
2025-08-31 06:00: 0.9925
2025-08-31 06:00: 0.0075
2025-08-31 07:00: 0.9925
2025-08-31 07:00: 0.0075
2025-08-31 08:00: 0.9925
2025-08-31 08:00: 0.0075
2025-08-31 09:00: 0.0065
2025-08-31 09:00: 0.9935
2025-08-31 10:00: 0.9935
2025-08-31 10:00: 0.0065
2025-08-31 11:00: 0.9935
2025-08-31 11:00: 0.0065
2025-08-31 12:00: 0.9935
2025-08-31 12:00: 0.0065
2025-08-31 13:00: 0.9935
2025-08-31 13:00: 0.0065
2025-08-31 14:00: 0.0065
2025-08-31 14:00: 0.9935
2025-08-31 15:00: 0.9935
2025-08-31 15:00: 0.0065
2025-08-31 16:00: 0.9935
2025-08-31 16:00: 0.0065
Trade Summary: Total trades: 3, Buy volume: 118.00, Sell volume: 41.00, Average price: 0.6658, Price range: 0.0100 - 0.9973

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 582277
Question: Will Valérie Pécresse be the next Prime Minister of France?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 3762.533598
Price History:
2025-08-31 17:00: 0.9935
2025-08-31 17:00: 0.0065
2025-08-31 18:00: 0.9935
2025-08-31 18:00: 0.0065
2025-08-31 19:00: 0.0065
2025-08-31 19:00: 0.9935
2025-08-31 20:00: 0.9935
2025-08-31 20:00: 0.0065
2025-08-31 21:00: 0.9935
2025-08-31 21:00: 0.0065
2025-08-31 22:00: 0.9935
2025-08-31 22:00: 0.0065
2025-08-31 23:00: 0.9935
2025-08-31 23:00: 0.0065
2025-09-01 00:00: 0.9935
2025-09-01 00:00: 0.0065
2025-09-01 01:00: 0.9935
2025-09-01 01:00: 0.0065
2025-09-01 02:00: 0.9935
2025-09-01 02:00: 0.0065
2025-09-01 03:00: 0.9935
2025-09-01 03:00: 0.0065
2025-09-01 04:00: 0.9935
2025-09-01 04:00: 0.0065
2025-09-01 05:00: 0.9935
2025-09-01 05:00: 0.0065
2025-09-01 06:00: 0.0095
2025-09-01 06:00: 0.9905
2025-09-01 07:00: 0.0105
2025-09-01 07:00: 0.9895
2025-09-01 08:00: 0.9905
2025-09-01 08:00: 0.0095
2025-09-01 09:00: 0.0070
2025-09-01 09:00: 0.9930
2025-09-01 10:00: 0.0070
2025-09-01 10:00: 0.9930
2025-09-01 11:00: 0.9895
2025-09-01 11:00: 0.0105
2025-09-01 12:00: 0.9895
2025-09-01 12:00: 0.0105
2025-09-01 13:00: 0.9895
2025-09-01 13:00: 0.0105
2025-09-01 14:00: 0.0085
2025-09-01 14:00: 0.9915
2025-09-01 15:00: 0.9920
2025-09-01 15:00: 0.0080
2025-09-01 16:00: 0.9920
2025-09-01 16:00: 0.0080
Trade Summary: Total trades: 101, Buy volume: 3015.06, Sell volume: 747.47, Average price: 0.8871, Price range: 0.0010 - 0.9990

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 582277
Question: Will Valérie Pécresse be the next Prime Minister of France?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 3762.533598
Price History:
2025-09-01 17:00: 0.9920
2025-09-01 17:00: 0.0080
2025-09-01 18:00: 0.0080
2025-09-01 18:00: 0.9920
2025-09-01 19:00: 0.9920
2025-09-01 19:00: 0.0080
2025-09-01 20:00: 0.0080
2025-09-01 20:00: 0.9920
2025-09-01 21:00: 0.0080
2025-09-01 21:00: 0.9920
2025-09-01 22:00: 0.9920
2025-09-01 22:00: 0.0080
2025-09-01 23:00: 0.9920
2025-09-01 23:00: 0.0080
2025-09-02 00:00: 0.9920
2025-09-02 00:00: 0.0080
2025-09-02 01:00: 0.0080
2025-09-02 01:00: 0.9920
2025-09-02 02:00: 0.0080
2025-09-02 02:00: 0.9920
2025-09-02 03:00: 0.0080
2025-09-02 03:00: 0.9920
2025-09-02 04:00: 0.9920
2025-09-02 04:00: 0.0080
2025-09-02 05:00: 0.0080
2025-09-02 05:00: 0.9920
2025-09-02 06:00: 0.9900
2025-09-02 06:00: 0.0100
2025-09-02 07:00: 0.0100
2025-09-02 07:00: 0.9900
2025-09-02 08:00: 0.9900
2025-09-02 08:00: 0.0100
2025-09-02 09:00: 0.9900
2025-09-02 09:00: 0.0100
2025-09-02 10:00: 0.0080
2025-09-02 10:00: 0.9920
2025-09-02 11:00: 0.0080
2025-09-02 11:00: 0.9920
2025-09-02 12:00: 0.0080
2025-09-02 12:00: 0.9920
2025-09-02 13:00: 0.9920
2025-09-02 13:00: 0.0080
2025-09-02 14:00: 0.9920
2025-09-02 14:00: 0.0080
2025-09-02 15:00: 0.9920
2025-09-02 15:00: 0.0080
2025-09-02 16:00: 0.9920
2025-09-02 16:00: 0.0080
Trade Summary: Total trades: 5, Buy volume: 109.14, Sell volume: 100.00, Average price: 0.7988, Price range: 0.0021 - 0.9980

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 582277
Question: Will Valérie Pécresse be the next Prime Minister of France?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 3762.533598
Price History:
2025-09-02 17:00: 0.0080
2025-09-02 17:00: 0.9920
2025-09-02 18:00: 0.9920
2025-09-02 18:00: 0.0080
2025-09-02 19:00: 0.9900
2025-09-02 19:00: 0.0100
2025-09-02 20:00: 0.9900
2025-09-02 20:00: 0.0100
2025-09-02 21:00: 0.9900
2025-09-02 21:00: 0.0100
2025-09-02 22:00: 0.9900
2025-09-02 22:00: 0.0100
2025-09-02 23:00: 0.9900
2025-09-02 23:00: 0.0100
2025-09-03 00:00: 0.9900
2025-09-03 00:00: 0.0100
2025-09-03 01:00: 0.0100
2025-09-03 01:00: 0.9900
2025-09-03 02:00: 0.0100
2025-09-03 02:00: 0.9900
2025-09-03 03:00: 0.9900
2025-09-03 03:00: 0.0100
2025-09-03 04:00: 0.9900
2025-09-03 04:00: 0.0100
2025-09-03 05:00: 0.0095
2025-09-03 05:00: 0.9905
2025-09-03 06:00: 0.9910
2025-09-03 06:00: 0.0090
2025-09-03 07:00: 0.0090
2025-09-03 07:00: 0.9910
2025-09-03 08:00: 0.0090
2025-09-03 08:00: 0.9910
2025-09-03 09:00: 0.9910
2025-09-03 09:00: 0.0090
2025-09-03 10:00: 0.9920
2025-09-03 10:00: 0.0080
2025-09-03 11:00: 0.9920
2025-09-03 11:00: 0.0080
2025-09-03 12:00: 0.0080
2025-09-03 12:00: 0.9920
2025-09-03 13:00: 0.0080
2025-09-03 13:00: 0.9920
2025-09-03 14:00: 0.9920
2025-09-03 14:00: 0.0080
2025-09-03 15:00: 0.9920
2025-09-03 15:00: 0.0080
2025-09-03 16:00: 0.0080
2025-09-03 16:00: 0.9920
Trade Summary: Total trades: 101, Buy volume: 3015.06, Sell volume: 747.47, Average price: 0.8871, Price range: 0.0010 - 0.9990

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 582277
Question: Will Valérie Pécresse be the next Prime Minister of France?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 3762.533598
Price History:
2025-09-03 17:00: 0.0075
2025-09-03 17:00: 0.9925
2025-09-03 18:00: 0.0080
2025-09-03 18:00: 0.9920
2025-09-03 19:00: 0.0080
2025-09-03 19:00: 0.9920
2025-09-03 20:00: 0.9920
2025-09-03 20:00: 0.0080
2025-09-03 21:00: 0.9920
2025-09-03 21:00: 0.0080
2025-09-03 22:00: 0.0080
2025-09-03 22:00: 0.9920
2025-09-03 23:00: 0.0080
2025-09-03 23:00: 0.9920
2025-09-04 00:00: 0.0080
2025-09-04 00:00: 0.9920
2025-09-04 01:00: 0.0080
2025-09-04 01:00: 0.9920
2025-09-04 02:00: 0.0080
2025-09-04 02:00: 0.9920
2025-09-04 03:00: 0.0085
2025-09-04 03:00: 0.9915
2025-09-04 04:00: 0.0085
2025-09-04 04:00: 0.9915
2025-09-04 05:00: 0.0085
2025-09-04 05:00: 0.9915
2025-09-04 06:00: 0.9915
2025-09-04 06:00: 0.0085
2025-09-04 07:00: 0.9905
2025-09-04 07:00: 0.0095
2025-09-04 08:00: 0.9905
2025-09-04 08:00: 0.0095
2025-09-04 09:00: 0.9905
2025-09-04 09:00: 0.0095
2025-09-04 10:00: 0.9905
2025-09-04 10:00: 0.0095
2025-09-04 11:00: 0.9925
2025-09-04 11:00: 0.0075
2025-09-04 12:00: 0.9925
2025-09-04 12:00: 0.0075
2025-09-04 13:00: 0.0075
2025-09-04 13:00: 0.9925
2025-09-04 14:00: 0.0075
2025-09-04 14:00: 0.9925
2025-09-04 15:00: 0.0075
2025-09-04 15:00: 0.9925
2025-09-04 16:00: 0.0075
2025-09-04 16:00: 0.9925
Trade Summary: Total trades: 1, Buy volume: 6.00, Sell volume: 0.00, Average price: 0.9980, Price range: 0.9980 - 0.9980

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 582277
Question: Will Valérie Pécresse be the next Prime Minister of France?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 3762.533598
Price History:
2025-09-04 17:00: 0.0075
2025-09-04 17:00: 0.9925
2025-09-04 18:00: 0.9925
2025-09-04 18:00: 0.0075
2025-09-04 19:00: 0.0075
2025-09-04 19:00: 0.9925
2025-09-04 20:00: 0.0060
2025-09-04 20:00: 0.9940
2025-09-04 21:00: 0.0060
2025-09-04 21:00: 0.9940
2025-09-04 22:00: 0.9940
2025-09-04 22:00: 0.0060
2025-09-04 23:00: 0.9940
2025-09-04 23:00: 0.0060
2025-09-05 00:00: 0.0060
2025-09-05 00:00: 0.9940
2025-09-05 01:00: 0.9940
2025-09-05 01:00: 0.0060
2025-09-05 02:00: 0.9940
2025-09-05 02:00: 0.0060
2025-09-05 03:00: 0.9940
2025-09-05 03:00: 0.0060
2025-09-05 04:00: 0.9940
2025-09-05 04:00: 0.0060
2025-09-05 05:00: 0.9940
2025-09-05 05:00: 0.0060
2025-09-05 06:00: 0.9940
2025-09-05 06:00: 0.0060
2025-09-05 07:00: 0.9940
2025-09-05 07:00: 0.0060
2025-09-05 08:00: 0.9940
2025-09-05 08:00: 0.0060
2025-09-05 09:00: 0.9940
2025-09-05 09:00: 0.0060
2025-09-05 10:00: 0.9940
2025-09-05 10:00: 0.0060
2025-09-05 11:00: 0.9940
2025-09-05 11:00: 0.0060
2025-09-05 12:00: 0.9950
2025-09-05 12:00: 0.0050
2025-09-05 13:00: 0.9950
2025-09-05 13:00: 0.0050
2025-09-05 14:00: 0.9950
2025-09-05 14:00: 0.0050
2025-09-05 15:00: 0.9950
2025-09-05 15:00: 0.0050
2025-09-05 16:00: 0.9950
2025-09-05 16:00: 0.0050
Trade Summary: Total trades: 101, Buy volume: 3015.06, Sell volume: 747.47, Average price: 0.8871, Price range: 0.0010 - 0.9990

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 582277
Question: Will Valérie Pécresse be the next Prime Minister of France?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 3762.533598
Price History:
2025-09-05 17:00: 0.9950
2025-09-05 17:00: 0.0050
2025-09-05 18:00: 0.9950
2025-09-05 18:00: 0.0050
2025-09-05 19:00: 0.9950
2025-09-05 19:00: 0.0050
2025-09-05 20:00: 0.9950
2025-09-05 20:00: 0.0050
2025-09-05 21:00: 0.9950
2025-09-05 21:00: 0.0050
2025-09-05 22:00: 0.9950
2025-09-05 22:00: 0.0050
2025-09-05 23:00: 0.0050
2025-09-05 23:00: 0.9950
2025-09-06 00:00: 0.9950
2025-09-06 00:00: 0.0050
2025-09-06 01:00: 0.9950
2025-09-06 01:00: 0.0050
2025-09-06 02:00: 0.0050
2025-09-06 02:00: 0.9950
2025-09-06 03:00: 0.0050
2025-09-06 03:00: 0.9950
2025-09-06 04:00: 0.0050
2025-09-06 04:00: 0.9950
2025-09-06 05:00: 0.0050
2025-09-06 05:00: 0.9950
2025-09-06 06:00: 0.0050
2025-09-06 06:00: 0.9950
2025-09-06 07:00: 0.9950
2025-09-06 07:00: 0.0050
2025-09-06 08:00: 0.9950
2025-09-06 08:00: 0.0050
2025-09-06 09:00: 0.9950
2025-09-06 09:00: 0.0050
2025-09-06 10:00: 0.0050
2025-09-06 10:00: 0.9950
2025-09-06 11:00: 0.0050
2025-09-06 11:00: 0.9950
2025-09-06 12:00: 0.9950
2025-09-06 12:00: 0.0050
2025-09-06 13:00: 0.9950
2025-09-06 13:00: 0.0050
2025-09-06 14:00: 0.9950
2025-09-06 14:00: 0.0050
2025-09-06 15:00: 0.0050
2025-09-06 15:00: 0.9950
2025-09-06 16:00: 0.9950
2025-09-06 16:00: 0.0050
Trade Summary: Total trades: 101, Buy volume: 3015.06, Sell volume: 747.47, Average price: 0.8871, Price range: 0.0010 - 0.9990

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 582277
Question: Will Valérie Pécresse be the next Prime Minister of France?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 3762.533598
Price History:
2025-09-06 17:00: 0.9950
2025-09-06 17:00: 0.0050
2025-09-06 18:00: 0.9950
2025-09-06 18:00: 0.0050
2025-09-06 19:00: 0.0050
2025-09-06 19:00: 0.9950
2025-09-06 20:00: 0.9950
2025-09-06 20:00: 0.0050
2025-09-06 21:00: 0.0050
2025-09-06 21:00: 0.9950
2025-09-06 22:00: 0.0050
2025-09-06 22:00: 0.9950
2025-09-06 23:00: 0.9950
2025-09-06 23:00: 0.0050
2025-09-07 00:00: 0.9950
2025-09-07 00:00: 0.0050
2025-09-07 01:00: 0.9950
2025-09-07 01:00: 0.0050
2025-09-07 02:00: 0.9950
2025-09-07 02:00: 0.0050
2025-09-07 03:00: 0.9950
2025-09-07 03:00: 0.0050
2025-09-07 04:00: 0.9950
2025-09-07 04:00: 0.0050
2025-09-07 05:00: 0.0050
2025-09-07 05:00: 0.9950
2025-09-07 06:00: 0.9950
2025-09-07 06:00: 0.0050
2025-09-07 07:00: 0.9950
2025-09-07 07:00: 0.0050
2025-09-07 08:00: 0.0050
2025-09-07 08:00: 0.9950
2025-09-07 09:00: 0.0050
2025-09-07 09:00: 0.9950
2025-09-07 10:00: 0.0050
2025-09-07 10:00: 0.9950
2025-09-07 11:00: 0.0050
2025-09-07 11:00: 0.9950
2025-09-07 12:00: 0.0050
2025-09-07 12:00: 0.9950
2025-09-07 13:00: 0.0050
2025-09-07 13:00: 0.9950
2025-09-07 14:00: 0.0050
2025-09-07 14:00: 0.9950
2025-09-07 15:00: 0.0050
2025-09-07 15:00: 0.9950
2025-09-07 16:00: 0.0050
2025-09-07 16:00: 0.9950
Trade Summary: Total trades: 101, Buy volume: 3015.06, Sell volume: 747.47, Average price: 0.8871, Price range: 0.0010 - 0.9990

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 582277
Question: Will Valérie Pécresse be the next Prime Minister of France?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 3762.533598
Price History:
2025-09-07 17:00: 0.0050
2025-09-07 17:00: 0.9950
2025-09-07 18:00: 0.0050
2025-09-07 18:00: 0.9950
2025-09-07 19:00: 0.0050
2025-09-07 19:00: 0.9950
2025-09-07 20:00: 0.0050
2025-09-07 20:00: 0.9950
2025-09-07 21:00: 0.0050
2025-09-07 21:00: 0.9950
2025-09-07 22:00: 0.0050
2025-09-07 22:00: 0.9950
2025-09-07 23:00: 0.0050
2025-09-07 23:00: 0.9950
2025-09-08 00:00: 0.0050
2025-09-08 00:00: 0.9950
2025-09-08 01:00: 0.9950
2025-09-08 01:00: 0.0050
2025-09-08 02:00: 0.9950
2025-09-08 02:00: 0.0050
2025-09-08 03:00: 0.0050
2025-09-08 03:00: 0.9950
2025-09-08 04:00: 0.9950
2025-09-08 04:00: 0.0050
2025-09-08 05:00: 0.0050
2025-09-08 05:00: 0.9950
2025-09-08 06:00: 0.9950
2025-09-08 06:00: 0.0050
2025-09-08 07:00: 0.0050
2025-09-08 07:00: 0.9950
2025-09-08 08:00: 0.0050
2025-09-08 08:00: 0.9950
2025-09-08 09:00: 0.9950
2025-09-08 09:00: 0.0050
2025-09-08 10:00: 0.0050
2025-09-08 10:00: 0.9950
2025-09-08 11:00: 0.0050
2025-09-08 11:00: 0.9950
2025-09-08 12:00: 0.9950
2025-09-08 12:00: 0.0050
2025-09-08 13:00: 0.9950
2025-09-08 13:00: 0.0050
2025-09-08 14:00: 0.9950
2025-09-08 14:00: 0.0050
2025-09-08 15:00: 0.9945
2025-09-08 15:00: 0.0055
2025-09-08 16:00: 0.9945
2025-09-08 16:00: 0.0055
Trade Summary: Total trades: 12, Buy volume: 452.00, Sell volume: 0.00, Average price: 0.9990, Price range: 0.9990 - 0.9990

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 582277
Question: Will Valérie Pécresse be the next Prime Minister of France?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 3762.533598
Price History:
2025-09-08 17:00: 0.0055
2025-09-08 17:00: 0.9945
2025-09-08 18:00: 0.0055
2025-09-08 18:00: 0.9945
2025-09-08 19:00: 0.9945
2025-09-08 19:00: 0.0055
2025-09-08 20:00: 0.9945
2025-09-08 20:00: 0.0055
2025-09-08 21:00: 0.9945
2025-09-08 21:00: 0.0055
2025-09-08 22:00: 0.9945
2025-09-08 22:00: 0.0055
2025-09-08 23:00: 0.9945
2025-09-08 23:00: 0.0055
2025-09-09 00:00: 0.9945
2025-09-09 00:00: 0.0055
2025-09-09 01:00: 0.9945
2025-09-09 01:00: 0.0055
2025-09-09 02:00: 0.0055
2025-09-09 02:00: 0.9945
2025-09-09 03:00: 0.9945
2025-09-09 03:00: 0.0055
2025-09-09 04:00: 0.9945
2025-09-09 04:00: 0.0055
2025-09-09 05:00: 0.9945
2025-09-09 05:00: 0.0055
2025-09-09 06:00: 0.9945
2025-09-09 06:00: 0.0055
2025-09-09 07:00: 0.9945
2025-09-09 07:00: 0.0055
2025-09-09 08:00: 0.9945
2025-09-09 08:00: 0.0055
2025-09-09 09:00: 0.9945
2025-09-09 09:00: 0.0055
2025-09-09 10:00: 0.9950
2025-09-09 10:00: 0.0050
2025-09-09 11:00: 0.9950
2025-09-09 11:00: 0.0050
2025-09-09 12:00: 0.0055
2025-09-09 12:00: 0.9945
2025-09-09 13:00: 0.9960
2025-09-09 13:00: 0.0040
2025-09-09 14:00: 0.9995
2025-09-09 14:00: 0.0005
2025-09-09 15:00: 0.9995
2025-09-09 15:00: 0.0005
2025-09-09 16:00: 0.9995
2025-09-09 16:00: 0.0005
Trade Summary: Total trades: 30, Buy volume: 676.61, Sell volume: 20.39, Average price: 0.9322, Price range: 0.0010 - 0.9990

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 500661
Question: Will a candidate from another party win California US Senate Election?
Volume: 23081.639774
Price History:
2024-04-12 17:00: 0.0150
2024-04-13 05:00: 0.9850
2024-04-13 18:00: 0.0150
2024-04-14 06:00: 0.9850
2024-04-14 19:00: 0.0150
2024-04-15 07:00: 0.9850
2024-04-15 20:00: 0.0150
2024-04-16 08:00: 0.9850
2024-04-16 21:00: 0.0150
2024-04-17 09:00: 0.9850
2024-04-17 22:00: 0.0150
2024-04-18 10:00: 0.9850
2024-04-18 23:00: 0.0150
2024-04-19 11:00: 0.9850
2024-04-20 00:00: 0.0150
2024-04-20 12:00: 0.9850
2024-04-21 01:00: 0.0150
2024-04-21 13:00: 0.9850
2024-04-22 02:00: 0.0150
2024-04-22 14:00: 0.9850
2024-04-23 03:00: 0.0150
2024-04-23 15:00: 0.9850
2024-04-24 04:00: 0.0150
2024-04-24 16:00: 0.9850
2024-04-25 05:00: 0.0150
2024-04-25 17:00: 0.9850
2024-04-26 06:00: 0.0150
2024-04-26 18:00: 0.9850
2024-04-27 07:00: 0.0150
2024-04-27 19:00: 0.9850
Trade Summary: No trades available
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 500661
Question: Will a candidate from another party win California US Senate Election?
Volume: 23081.639774
Price History:
2024-04-28 17:00: 0.9850
2024-04-29 06:00: 0.0150
2024-04-29 18:00: 0.9850
2024-04-30 07:00: 0.0150
2024-04-30 19:00: 0.9850
2024-05-01 08:00: 0.0150
2024-05-01 21:00: 0.9850
2024-05-02 10:00: 0.0155
2024-05-02 22:00: 0.9845
2024-05-03 11:00: 0.0155
2024-05-03 23:00: 0.9845
2024-05-04 12:00: 0.0155
2024-05-05 00:00: 0.9845
2024-05-05 13:00: 0.0155
2024-05-06 01:00: 0.9845
2024-05-06 14:00: 0.0155
2024-05-07 02:00: 0.9845
2024-05-07 15:00: 0.0155
2024-05-08 03:00: 0.9845
2024-05-08 16:00: 0.0150
2024-05-09 04:00: 0.9845
2024-05-09 17:00: 0.0155
2024-05-10 05:00: 0.9845
2024-05-10 18:00: 0.0150
2024-05-11 06:00: 0.9850
2024-05-11 19:00: 0.0150
2024-05-12 07:00: 0.9850
2024-05-12 20:00: 0.0150
2024-05-13 08:00: 0.9845
2024-05-13 21:00: 0.0155
Trade Summary: No trades available
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 500661
Question: Will a candidate from another party win California US Senate Election?
Volume: 23081.639774
Price History:
2024-05-14 19:00: 0.0150
2024-05-15 07:00: 0.9850
2024-05-15 20:00: 0.0150
2024-05-16 08:00: 0.9850
2024-05-16 21:00: 0.0150
2024-05-17 09:00: 0.9850
2024-05-17 22:00: 0.0150
2024-05-18 10:00: 0.9850
2024-05-18 23:00: 0.0150
2024-05-19 11:00: 0.9850
2024-05-20 00:00: 0.0150
2024-05-20 12:00: 0.9850
2024-05-21 01:00: 0.0150
2024-05-21 13:00: 0.9850
2024-05-22 02:00: 0.0150
2024-05-22 14:00: 0.9850
2024-05-23 03:00: 0.0150
2024-05-23 15:00: 0.9850
2024-05-24 04:00: 0.0150
2024-05-24 16:00: 0.9850
2024-05-25 05:00: 0.0150
2024-05-25 17:00: 0.9850
2024-05-26 06:00: 0.0150
2024-05-26 18:00: 0.9850
2024-05-27 07:00: 0.0150
2024-05-27 19:00: 0.9870
2024-05-28 08:00: 0.0130
2024-05-28 20:00: 0.9870
2024-05-29 09:00: 0.0130
2024-05-29 21:00: 0.9870
Trade Summary: No trades available
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 500661
Question: Will a candidate from another party win California US Senate Election?
Volume: 23081.639774
Price History:
2024-05-30 19:00: 0.9870
2024-05-31 08:00: 0.0130
2024-05-31 20:00: 0.9870
2024-06-01 09:00: 0.0130
2024-06-01 21:00: 0.9870
2024-06-02 10:00: 0.0130
2024-06-02 22:00: 0.9870
2024-06-03 11:00: 0.0130
2024-06-03 23:00: 0.9870
2024-06-04 12:00: 0.0130
2024-06-05 00:00: 0.9870
2024-06-05 13:00: 0.0130
2024-06-06 01:00: 0.9870
2024-06-06 14:00: 0.0130
2024-06-07 02:00: 0.9870
2024-06-07 15:00: 0.0130
2024-06-08 03:00: 0.9870
2024-06-08 16:00: 0.0130
2024-06-09 04:00: 0.9870
2024-06-09 17:00: 0.0130
2024-06-10 05:00: 0.9870
2024-06-10 18:00: 0.0130
2024-06-11 06:00: 0.9870
2024-06-11 19:00: 0.0130
2024-06-12 07:00: 0.9870
2024-06-12 20:00: 0.0130
2024-06-13 08:00: 0.9870
2024-06-13 21:00: 0.0130
2024-06-14 09:00: 0.9870
2024-06-14 22:00: 0.0130
Trade Summary: No trades available
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 500661
Question: Will a candidate from another party win California US Senate Election?
Volume: 23081.639774
Price History:
2024-06-15 20:00: 0.0130
2024-06-16 08:00: 0.9870
2024-06-16 21:00: 0.0150
2024-06-17 09:00: 0.9850
2024-06-17 22:00: 0.0150
2024-06-18 10:00: 0.9850
2024-06-18 23:00: 0.0150
2024-06-19 11:00: 0.9850
2024-06-20 00:00: 0.0150
2024-06-20 12:00: 0.9850
2024-06-21 01:00: 0.0150
2024-06-21 13:00: 0.9850
2024-06-22 02:00: 0.0150
2024-06-22 14:00: 0.9850
2024-06-23 03:00: 0.0150
2024-06-23 15:00: 0.9850
2024-06-24 04:00: 0.0150
2024-06-24 16:00: 0.9850
2024-06-25 05:00: 0.0150
2024-06-25 17:00: 0.9850
2024-06-26 06:00: 0.0150
2024-06-26 18:00: 0.9850
2024-06-27 07:00: 0.0150
2024-06-27 19:00: 0.9865
2024-06-28 08:00: 0.0150
2024-06-28 20:00: 0.9850
2024-06-29 09:00: 0.0150
2024-06-29 21:00: 0.9860
2024-06-30 10:00: 0.0140
2024-06-30 22:00: 0.9860
Trade Summary: No trades available
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 500661
Question: Will a candidate from another party win California US Senate Election?
Volume: 23081.639774
Price History:
2024-07-01 20:00: 0.9860
2024-07-02 09:00: 0.0140
2024-07-02 21:00: 0.9860
2024-07-03 10:00: 0.0140
2024-07-03 22:00: 0.9860
2024-07-04 11:00: 0.0135
2024-07-04 23:00: 0.9865
2024-07-05 12:00: 0.0135
2024-07-06 00:00: 0.9865
2024-07-06 13:00: 0.0135
2024-07-07 01:00: 0.9865
2024-07-07 14:00: 0.0135
2024-07-08 02:00: 0.9865
2024-07-08 15:00: 0.0135
2024-07-09 03:00: 0.9865
2024-07-09 16:00: 0.0135
2024-07-10 04:00: 0.9865
2024-07-10 17:00: 0.0135
2024-07-11 05:00: 0.9865
2024-07-11 18:00: 0.0135
2024-07-12 06:00: 0.9865
2024-07-12 19:00: 0.0135
2024-07-13 07:00: 0.9865
2024-07-13 20:00: 0.0130
2024-07-14 08:00: 0.9870
2024-07-14 21:00: 0.0135
2024-07-15 09:00: 0.9940
2024-07-15 22:00: 0.0060
2024-07-16 10:00: 0.9940
2024-07-16 23:00: 0.0060
Trade Summary: No trades available
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 500661
Question: Will a candidate from another party win California US Senate Election?
Volume: 23081.639774
Price History:
2024-07-17 21:00: 0.0060
2024-07-18 09:00: 0.9940
2024-07-18 22:00: 0.0060
2024-07-19 10:00: 0.9940
2024-07-19 23:00: 0.0060
2024-07-20 11:00: 0.9940
2024-07-21 00:00: 0.0060
2024-07-21 12:00: 0.9940
2024-07-22 02:00: 0.0060
2024-07-22 14:00: 0.9940
2024-07-23 03:00: 0.0080
2024-07-23 15:00: 0.9920
2024-07-24 04:00: 0.0080
2024-07-24 16:00: 0.9920
2024-07-25 05:00: 0.0080
2024-07-25 17:00: 0.9920
2024-07-26 06:00: 0.0080
2024-07-26 18:00: 0.9915
2024-07-27 07:00: 0.0085
2024-07-27 19:00: 0.9915
2024-07-28 08:00: 0.0085
2024-07-28 20:00: 0.9910
2024-07-29 09:00: 0.0090
2024-07-29 21:00: 0.9910
2024-07-30 10:00: 0.0090
2024-07-30 22:00: 0.9910
2024-07-31 11:00: 0.0090
2024-07-31 23:00: 0.9900
2024-08-01 12:00: 0.0095
2024-08-02 00:00: 0.9905
Trade Summary: No trades available
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 500661
Question: Will a candidate from another party win California US Senate Election?
Volume: 23081.639774
Price History:
2024-08-02 22:00: 0.9905
2024-08-03 11:00: 0.0105
2024-08-03 23:00: 0.9895
2024-08-04 12:00: 0.0120
2024-08-05 00:00: 0.9875
2024-08-05 13:00: 0.0090
2024-08-06 01:00: 0.9910
2024-08-06 14:00: 0.0090
2024-08-07 02:00: 0.9910
2024-08-07 15:00: 0.0090
2024-08-08 03:00: 0.9910
2024-08-08 16:00: 0.0090
2024-08-09 04:00: 0.9910
2024-08-09 17:00: 0.0105
2024-08-10 05:00: 0.9890
2024-08-10 18:00: 0.0110
2024-08-11 06:00: 0.9880
2024-08-11 19:00: 0.0120
2024-08-12 07:00: 0.9905
2024-08-12 20:00: 0.0095
2024-08-13 08:00: 0.9935
2024-08-13 21:00: 0.0065
2024-08-14 09:00: 0.9935
2024-08-14 22:00: 0.0065
2024-08-15 10:00: 0.9935
2024-08-15 23:00: 0.0065
2024-08-16 11:00: 0.9930
2024-08-17 00:00: 0.0070
2024-08-17 12:00: 0.9935
2024-08-18 01:00: 0.0065
Trade Summary: No trades available
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 500661
Question: Will a candidate from another party win California US Senate Election?
Volume: 23081.639774
Price History:
2024-08-18 23:00: 0.0065
2024-08-19 11:00: 0.9935
2024-08-20 00:00: 0.0065
2024-08-20 12:00: 0.9940
2024-08-21 01:00: 0.0070
2024-08-21 13:00: 0.9930
2024-08-22 02:00: 0.0070
2024-08-22 14:00: 0.9930
2024-08-23 03:00: 0.0070
2024-08-23 15:00: 0.9930
2024-08-24 04:00: 0.0070
2024-08-24 16:00: 0.9935
2024-08-25 05:00: 0.0055
2024-08-25 17:00: 0.9965
2024-08-26 06:00: 0.0045
2024-08-26 18:00: 0.9960
2024-08-27 07:00: 0.0050
2024-08-27 19:00: 0.9930
2024-08-28 08:00: 0.0070
2024-08-28 20:00: 0.9950
2024-08-29 09:00: 0.0040
2024-08-29 21:00: 0.9960
2024-08-30 10:00: 0.0040
2024-08-30 22:00: 0.9960
2024-08-31 11:00: 0.0040
2024-08-31 23:00: 0.9960
2024-09-01 12:00: 0.0045
2024-09-02 00:00: 0.9955
2024-09-02 13:00: 0.0045
2024-09-03 01:00: 0.9950
Trade Summary: No trades available
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 500661
Question: Will a candidate from another party win California US Senate Election?
Volume: 23081.639774
Price History:
2024-09-03 23:00: 0.9950
2024-09-04 12:00: 0.0050
2024-09-05 00:00: 0.9950
2024-09-05 13:00: 0.0050
2024-09-06 01:00: 0.9950
2024-09-06 14:00: 0.0050
2024-09-07 02:00: 0.9950
2024-09-07 15:00: 0.0050
2024-09-08 03:00: 0.9950
2024-09-08 16:00: 0.0050
2024-09-09 04:00: 0.9950
2024-09-09 17:00: 0.0050
2024-09-10 05:00: 0.9950
2024-09-10 18:00: 0.0050
2024-09-11 06:00: 0.9950
2024-09-11 19:00: 0.0050
2024-09-12 07:00: 0.9950
2024-09-12 20:00: 0.0050
2024-09-13 08:00: 0.9950
2024-09-13 21:00: 0.0050
2024-09-14 09:00: 0.9945
2024-09-14 22:00: 0.0055
2024-09-15 10:00: 0.9945
2024-09-15 23:00: 0.0055
2024-09-16 11:00: 0.9945
2024-09-17 00:00: 0.0055
2024-09-17 12:00: 0.9945
2024-09-18 01:00: 0.0055
2024-09-18 13:00: 0.9945
2024-09-19 02:00: 0.0055
Trade Summary: No trades available
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 500661
Question: Will a candidate from another party win California US Senate Election?
Volume: 23081.639774
Price History:
2024-09-20 00:00: 0.0055
2024-09-20 12:00: 0.9945
2024-09-21 01:00: 0.0055
2024-09-21 13:00: 0.9945
2024-09-22 02:00: 0.0055
2024-09-22 14:00: 0.9945
2024-09-23 03:00: 0.0055
2024-09-23 15:00: 0.9945
2024-09-24 04:00: 0.0055
2024-09-24 16:00: 0.9945
2024-09-25 05:00: 0.0055
2024-09-25 17:00: 0.9940
2024-09-26 06:00: 0.0055
2024-09-26 18:00: 0.9945
2024-09-27 07:00: 0.0055
2024-09-27 19:00: 0.9945
2024-09-28 08:00: 0.0055
2024-09-28 20:00: 0.9945
2024-09-29 09:00: 0.0055
2024-09-29 21:00: 0.9945
2024-09-30 10:00: 0.0060
2024-09-30 22:00: 0.9940
2024-10-01 11:00: 0.0055
2024-10-01 23:00: 0.9945
2024-10-02 11:00: 0.0055
2024-10-02 23:00: 0.9945
2024-10-03 12:00: 0.0055
2024-10-04 00:00: 0.9945
2024-10-04 13:00: 0.0055
2024-10-05 01:00: 0.9945
Trade Summary: No trades available
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 500661
Question: Will a candidate from another party win California US Senate Election?
Volume: 23081.639774
Price History:
2024-10-05 23:00: 0.9945
2024-10-06 12:00: 0.0055
2024-10-07 00:00: 0.9945
2024-10-07 13:00: 0.0055
2024-10-08 01:00: 0.9955
2024-10-08 14:00: 0.0045
2024-10-09 02:00: 0.9955
2024-10-09 15:00: 0.0040
2024-10-10 03:00: 0.9960
2024-10-10 16:00: 0.0040
2024-10-11 04:00: 0.9960
2024-10-11 17:00: 0.0040
2024-10-12 05:00: 0.9960
2024-10-12 18:00: 0.0040
2024-10-13 06:00: 0.9960
2024-10-13 19:00: 0.0040
2024-10-14 07:00: 0.9960
2024-10-14 20:00: 0.0040
2024-10-15 08:00: 0.9960
2024-10-15 21:00: 0.0040
2024-10-16 09:00: 0.9960
2024-10-16 22:00: 0.2355
2024-10-17 10:00: 0.9435
2024-10-17 23:00: 0.0220
2024-10-18 11:00: 0.9920
2024-10-19 00:00: 0.0075
2024-10-19 12:00: 0.9965
2024-10-20 01:00: 0.0030
2024-10-20 13:00: 0.9970
2024-10-21 02:00: 0.0025
Trade Summary: No trades available
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 500661
Question: Will a candidate from another party win California US Senate Election?
Volume: 23081.639774
Price History:
2024-10-22 00:00: 0.0025
2024-10-22 12:00: 0.9975
2024-10-23 01:00: 0.0025
2024-10-23 13:00: 0.9975
2024-10-24 02:00: 0.0025
2024-10-24 14:00: 0.9975
2024-10-25 03:00: 0.0025
2024-10-25 15:00: 0.9970
2024-10-26 04:00: 0.0030
2024-10-26 16:00: 0.9970
2024-10-27 05:00: 0.0030
2024-10-27 17:00: 0.9970
2024-10-28 06:00: 0.0030
2024-10-28 18:00: 0.9915
2024-10-29 07:00: 0.0085
2024-10-29 19:00: 0.9930
2024-10-30 08:00: 0.0070
2024-10-30 20:00: 0.9935
2024-10-31 09:00: 0.0080
2024-10-31 21:00: 0.9925
2024-11-01 10:00: 0.0075
2024-11-01 22:00: 0.9930
2024-11-02 11:00: 0.0070
2024-11-02 23:00: 0.9930
2024-11-03 11:00: 0.0070
2024-11-03 23:00: 0.9930
2024-11-04 12:00: 0.0070
2024-11-05 00:00: 0.9930
2024-11-05 13:00: 0.0065
2024-11-06 02:00: 0.5280
Trade Summary: No trades available
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 657156
Question: Will Google dip to $235 in November?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 258662.980195
Price History:
2025-10-30 16:00: 0.4950
2025-10-30 17:00: 0.5000
2025-10-30 18:00: 0.5000
2025-10-30 19:00: 0.5050
2025-10-30 20:00: 0.5050
2025-10-30 21:00: 0.5050
2025-10-30 22:00: 0.5000
2025-10-30 23:00: 0.5050
2025-10-31 00:00: 0.5050
2025-10-31 01:00: 0.5050
2025-10-31 02:00: 0.5050
2025-10-31 03:00: 0.5000
2025-10-31 04:00: 0.5050
2025-10-31 05:00: 0.4950
2025-10-31 06:00: 0.4950
2025-10-31 07:00: 0.4950
2025-10-31 08:00: 0.5000
2025-10-31 09:00: 0.5000
2025-10-31 10:00: 0.5050
2025-10-31 11:00: 0.5200
2025-10-31 12:00: 0.0850
2025-10-31 13:00: 0.0900
2025-10-31 14:00: 0.0800
2025-10-31 15:00: 0.0700
2025-10-31 16:00: 0.0700
2025-10-31 17:00: 0.1000
2025-10-31 18:00: 0.1000
2025-10-31 19:00: 0.1000
2025-10-31 20:00: 0.1000
2025-10-31 21:00: 0.1000
2025-10-31 22:00: 0.0950
2025-10-31 23:00: 0.0950
2025-11-01 00:00: 0.0950
2025-11-01 01:00: 0.0950
2025-11-01 02:00: 0.0950
2025-11-01 03:00: 0.1100
2025-11-01 04:00: 0.1050
2025-11-01 05:00: 0.1050
2025-11-01 06:00: 0.1050
2025-11-01 07:00: 0.1050
2025-11-01 08:00: 0.1100
2025-11-01 09:00: 0.1050
2025-11-01 10:00: 0.0950
2025-11-01 11:00: 0.0950
2025-11-01 12:00: 0.1150
2025-11-01 13:00: 0.1150
2025-11-01 14:00: 0.1150
2025-11-01 15:00: 0.1150
2025-11-01 16:00: 0.1150
2025-11-01 17:00: 0.1150
Trade Summary: Total trades: 3, Buy volume: 490.00, Sell volume: 0.00, Average price: 0.1133, Price range: 0.1100 - 0.1200

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 657156
Question: Will Google dip to $235 in November?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 258662.980195
Price History:
2025-11-01 22:00: 0.1200
2025-11-01 23:00: 0.1200
2025-11-02 00:00: 0.1200
2025-11-02 01:00: 0.1200
2025-11-02 01:00: 0.1200
2025-11-02 02:00: 0.1200
2025-11-02 03:00: 0.1200
2025-11-02 04:00: 0.1200
2025-11-02 05:00: 0.1200
2025-11-02 06:00: 0.1200
2025-11-02 07:00: 0.1200
2025-11-02 08:00: 0.1200
2025-11-02 09:00: 0.1200
2025-11-02 10:00: 0.1200
2025-11-02 11:00: 0.1200
2025-11-02 12:00: 0.1200
2025-11-02 13:00: 0.1200
2025-11-02 14:00: 0.1200
2025-11-02 15:00: 0.1200
2025-11-02 16:00: 0.1200
2025-11-02 17:00: 0.1200
2025-11-02 18:00: 0.1200
2025-11-02 19:00: 0.1200
2025-11-02 20:00: 0.1200
2025-11-02 21:00: 0.1200
2025-11-02 22:00: 0.1200
2025-11-02 23:00: 0.1200
2025-11-03 00:00: 0.1200
2025-11-03 01:00: 0.1200
2025-11-03 02:00: 0.1200
2025-11-03 03:00: 0.1200
2025-11-03 04:00: 0.1200
2025-11-03 05:00: 0.1200
2025-11-03 06:00: 0.1200
2025-11-03 07:00: 0.1200
2025-11-03 08:00: 0.1200
2025-11-03 09:00: 0.1200
2025-11-03 10:00: 0.1200
2025-11-03 11:00: 0.1200
2025-11-03 12:00: 0.1200
2025-11-03 13:00: 0.1200
2025-11-03 14:00: 0.1200
2025-11-03 15:00: 0.1200
2025-11-03 16:00: 0.1200
2025-11-03 17:00: 0.1200
2025-11-03 18:00: 0.1200
2025-11-03 19:00: 0.1200
2025-11-03 20:00: 0.1200
2025-11-03 21:00: 0.1200
2025-11-03 22:00: 0.1200
Trade Summary: Total trades: 1, Buy volume: 10.00, Sell volume: 0.00, Average price: 0.8900, Price range: 0.8900 - 0.8900

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 657156
Question: Will Google dip to $235 in November?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 258662.980195
Price History:
2025-11-04 03:00: 0.1200
2025-11-04 04:00: 0.1200
2025-11-04 05:00: 0.1200
2025-11-04 06:00: 0.1100
2025-11-04 07:00: 0.1150
2025-11-04 08:00: 0.1150
2025-11-04 09:00: 0.1150
2025-11-04 10:00: 0.1150
2025-11-04 11:00: 0.1150
2025-11-04 12:00: 0.1150
2025-11-04 13:00: 0.1150
2025-11-04 14:00: 0.1150
2025-11-04 15:00: 0.1150
2025-11-04 16:00: 0.1150
2025-11-04 17:00: 0.1150
2025-11-04 18:00: 0.1150
2025-11-04 19:00: 0.1100
2025-11-04 20:00: 0.1100
2025-11-04 21:00: 0.1100
2025-11-04 22:00: 0.1100
2025-11-04 23:00: 0.1100
2025-11-05 00:00: 0.1100
2025-11-05 01:00: 0.1100
2025-11-05 02:00: 0.1100
2025-11-05 03:00: 0.1100
2025-11-05 04:00: 0.1100
2025-11-05 05:00: 0.1100
2025-11-05 06:00: 0.1100
2025-11-05 07:00: 0.1100
2025-11-05 08:00: 0.1100
2025-11-05 09:00: 0.1100
2025-11-05 10:00: 0.1100
2025-11-05 11:00: 0.1100
2025-11-05 12:00: 0.1100
2025-11-05 13:00: 0.1100
2025-11-05 14:00: 0.1100
2025-11-05 15:00: 0.1100
2025-11-05 16:00: 0.1100
2025-11-05 17:00: 0.1100
2025-11-05 18:00: 0.1100
2025-11-05 19:00: 0.1100
2025-11-05 20:00: 0.1100
2025-11-05 21:00: 0.1100
2025-11-05 22:00: 0.1100
2025-11-05 23:00: 0.1100
2025-11-06 00:00: 0.1100
2025-11-06 01:00: 0.1100
2025-11-06 02:00: 0.1100
2025-11-06 03:00: 0.1100
2025-11-06 04:00: 0.1100
Trade Summary: Total trades: 2, Buy volume: 30.00, Sell volume: 490.00, Average price: 0.5050, Price range: 0.1100 - 0.9000

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 657156
Question: Will Google dip to $235 in November?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 258662.980195
Price History:
2025-11-06 09:00: 0.1100
2025-11-06 10:00: 0.1150
2025-11-06 11:00: 0.1100
2025-11-06 12:00: 0.1100
2025-11-06 13:00: 0.1100
2025-11-06 14:00: 0.1100
2025-11-06 15:00: 0.1100
2025-11-06 16:00: 0.1100
2025-11-06 17:00: 0.1100
2025-11-06 18:00: 0.1100
2025-11-06 19:00: 0.1100
2025-11-06 20:00: 0.1100
2025-11-06 21:00: 0.1100
2025-11-06 22:00: 0.1100
2025-11-06 23:00: 0.1100
2025-11-07 00:00: 0.1100
2025-11-07 01:00: 0.1100
2025-11-07 02:00: 0.1100
2025-11-07 03:00: 0.1100
2025-11-07 04:00: 0.1100
2025-11-07 05:00: 0.1100
2025-11-07 06:00: 0.1100
2025-11-07 07:00: 0.1100
2025-11-07 08:00: 0.1100
2025-11-07 09:00: 0.1100
2025-11-07 10:00: 0.1100
2025-11-07 11:00: 0.1100
2025-11-07 12:00: 0.1100
2025-11-07 13:00: 0.1100
2025-11-07 14:00: 0.1100
2025-11-07 15:00: 0.1100
2025-11-07 16:00: 0.1100
2025-11-07 17:00: 0.1100
2025-11-07 18:00: 0.1100
2025-11-07 19:00: 0.1100
2025-11-07 20:00: 0.1100
2025-11-07 21:00: 0.1100
2025-11-07 22:00: 0.1100
2025-11-07 23:00: 0.1100
2025-11-08 00:00: 0.1100
2025-11-08 01:00: 0.1100
2025-11-08 02:00: 0.1100
2025-11-08 03:00: 0.1100
2025-11-08 04:00: 0.1100
2025-11-08 05:00: 0.1100
2025-11-08 06:00: 0.1100
2025-11-08 07:00: 0.1100
2025-11-08 08:00: 0.1100
2025-11-08 09:00: 0.1100
2025-11-08 10:00: 0.1100
Trade Summary: Total trades: 787, Buy volume: 113886.72, Sell volume: 144776.26, Average price: 0.0711, Price range: 0.0010 - 0.9990

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 657156
Question: Will Google dip to $235 in November?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 258662.980195
Price History:
2025-11-08 15:00: 0.1100
2025-11-08 16:00: 0.1100
2025-11-08 17:00: 0.1100
2025-11-08 18:00: 0.1100
2025-11-08 19:00: 0.1050
2025-11-08 20:00: 0.1050
2025-11-08 21:00: 0.1050
2025-11-08 22:00: 0.1050
2025-11-08 23:00: 0.1050
2025-11-09 00:00: 0.1050
2025-11-09 01:00: 0.1050
2025-11-09 02:00: 0.1050
2025-11-09 03:00: 0.1050
2025-11-09 04:00: 0.1050
2025-11-09 05:00: 0.1050
2025-11-09 06:00: 0.1050
2025-11-09 07:00: 0.1050
2025-11-09 08:00: 0.1100
2025-11-09 09:00: 0.1100
2025-11-09 10:00: 0.1050
2025-11-09 11:00: 0.1100
2025-11-09 12:00: 0.1050
2025-11-09 13:00: 0.1050
2025-11-09 14:00: 0.1050
2025-11-09 15:00: 0.1050
2025-11-09 16:00: 0.1100
2025-11-09 17:00: 0.1000
2025-11-09 18:00: 0.1000
2025-11-09 19:00: 0.1000
2025-11-09 20:00: 0.1000
2025-11-09 21:00: 0.1050
2025-11-09 22:00: 0.1000
2025-11-09 23:00: 0.1000
2025-11-10 00:00: 0.1000
2025-11-10 01:00: 0.0750
2025-11-10 02:00: 0.0750
2025-11-10 03:00: 0.0750
2025-11-10 04:00: 0.0750
2025-11-10 05:00: 0.0700
2025-11-10 06:00: 0.0700
2025-11-10 07:00: 0.0700
2025-11-10 08:00: 0.0700
2025-11-10 09:00: 0.0750
2025-11-10 10:00: 0.0750
2025-11-10 11:00: 0.0700
2025-11-10 12:00: 0.0700
2025-11-10 13:00: 0.0700
2025-11-10 14:00: 0.0700
2025-11-10 15:00: 0.0700
2025-11-10 16:00: 0.0600
Trade Summary: Total trades: 8, Buy volume: 588.85, Sell volume: 40.00, Average price: 0.7150, Price range: 0.0900 - 0.9600

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 657156
Question: Will Google dip to $235 in November?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 258662.980195
Price History:
2025-11-10 21:00: 0.0450
2025-11-10 22:00: 0.0450
2025-11-10 23:00: 0.0450
2025-11-11 00:00: 0.0450
2025-11-11 01:00: 0.0450
2025-11-11 02:00: 0.0400
2025-11-11 03:00: 0.0355
2025-11-11 04:00: 0.0355
2025-11-11 05:00: 0.0355
2025-11-11 06:00: 0.0355
2025-11-11 07:00: 0.0355
2025-11-11 08:00: 0.0355
2025-11-11 09:00: 0.0350
2025-11-11 10:00: 0.0450
2025-11-11 11:00: 0.0450
2025-11-11 12:00: 0.0405
2025-11-11 13:00: 0.0400
2025-11-11 14:00: 0.0400
2025-11-11 15:00: 0.0395
2025-11-11 16:00: 0.0395
2025-11-11 17:00: 0.0390
2025-11-11 18:00: 0.0390
2025-11-11 19:00: 0.0390
2025-11-11 20:00: 0.0350
2025-11-11 21:00: 0.0350
2025-11-11 22:00: 0.0350
2025-11-11 23:00: 0.0350
2025-11-12 00:00: 0.0350
2025-11-12 01:00: 0.0350
2025-11-12 02:00: 0.0350
2025-11-12 03:00: 0.0345
2025-11-12 04:00: 0.0345
2025-11-12 05:00: 0.0350
2025-11-12 06:00: 0.0350
2025-11-12 07:00: 0.0345
2025-11-12 08:00: 0.0340
2025-11-12 09:00: 0.0345
2025-11-12 10:00: 0.0345
2025-11-12 11:00: 0.0345
2025-11-12 12:00: 0.0345
2025-11-12 13:00: 0.0345
2025-11-12 14:00: 0.0345
2025-11-12 15:00: 0.0345
2025-11-12 16:00: 0.0345
2025-11-12 17:00: 0.0345
2025-11-12 18:00: 0.0345
2025-11-12 19:00: 0.0345
2025-11-12 20:00: 0.0345
2025-11-12 21:00: 0.0345
2025-11-12 22:00: 0.0345
Trade Summary: Total trades: 787, Buy volume: 113886.72, Sell volume: 144776.26, Average price: 0.0711, Price range: 0.0010 - 0.9990

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 657156
Question: Will Google dip to $235 in November?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 258662.980195
Price History:
2025-11-13 03:00: 0.0345
2025-11-13 04:00: 0.0340
2025-11-13 05:00: 0.0340
2025-11-13 06:00: 0.0340
2025-11-13 07:00: 0.0340
2025-11-13 08:00: 0.0340
2025-11-13 09:00: 0.0340
2025-11-13 10:00: 0.0340
2025-11-13 11:00: 0.0340
2025-11-13 12:00: 0.0340
2025-11-13 13:00: 0.0340
2025-11-13 14:00: 0.0340
2025-11-13 15:00: 0.0340
2025-11-13 16:00: 0.0340
2025-11-13 17:00: 0.0340
2025-11-13 18:00: 0.0340
2025-11-13 19:00: 0.0340
2025-11-13 20:00: 0.0340
2025-11-13 21:00: 0.0340
2025-11-13 22:00: 0.0340
2025-11-13 23:00: 0.0340
2025-11-14 00:00: 0.0350
2025-11-14 01:00: 0.0350
2025-11-14 02:00: 0.0350
2025-11-14 03:00: 0.0350
2025-11-14 04:00: 0.0355
2025-11-14 05:00: 0.0355
2025-11-14 06:00: 0.0355
2025-11-14 07:00: 0.0355
2025-11-14 08:00: 0.0355
2025-11-14 09:00: 0.0355
2025-11-14 10:00: 0.0450
2025-11-14 11:00: 0.0450
2025-11-14 12:00: 0.0450
2025-11-14 13:00: 0.0450
2025-11-14 14:00: 0.0450
2025-11-14 15:00: 0.0450
2025-11-14 16:00: 0.0440
2025-11-14 17:00: 0.0450
2025-11-14 18:00: 0.0450
2025-11-14 19:00: 0.0450
2025-11-14 20:00: 0.0445
2025-11-14 21:00: 0.0395
2025-11-14 22:00: 0.0395
2025-11-14 23:00: 0.0395
2025-11-15 00:00: 0.0395
2025-11-15 01:00: 0.0335
2025-11-15 02:00: 0.0335
2025-11-15 03:00: 0.0335
2025-11-15 04:00: 0.0335
Trade Summary: Total trades: 3, Buy volume: 548.67, Sell volume: 363.85, Average price: 0.6510, Price range: 0.0449 - 0.9601

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 657156
Question: Will Google dip to $235 in November?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 258662.980195
Price History:
2025-11-15 09:00: 0.0335
2025-11-15 10:00: 0.0335
2025-11-15 11:00: 0.0335
2025-11-15 12:00: 0.0335
2025-11-15 13:00: 0.0340
2025-11-15 14:00: 0.0340
2025-11-15 15:00: 0.0340
2025-11-15 16:00: 0.0340
2025-11-15 17:00: 0.0340
2025-11-15 18:00: 0.0340
2025-11-15 19:00: 0.0200
2025-11-15 20:00: 0.0200
2025-11-15 21:00: 0.0200
2025-11-15 22:00: 0.0200
2025-11-15 23:00: 0.0160
2025-11-16 00:00: 0.0160
2025-11-16 01:00: 0.0155
2025-11-16 02:00: 0.0155
2025-11-16 03:00: 0.0155
2025-11-16 04:00: 0.0155
2025-11-16 05:00: 0.0155
2025-11-16 06:00: 0.0155
2025-11-16 07:00: 0.0155
2025-11-16 08:00: 0.0155
2025-11-16 09:00: 0.0155
2025-11-16 10:00: 0.0155
2025-11-16 11:00: 0.0155
2025-11-16 12:00: 0.0155
2025-11-16 13:00: 0.0155
2025-11-16 14:00: 0.0155
2025-11-16 15:00: 0.0155
2025-11-16 16:00: 0.0155
2025-11-16 17:00: 0.0155
2025-11-16 18:00: 0.0155
2025-11-16 19:00: 0.0155
2025-11-16 20:00: 0.0155
2025-11-16 21:00: 0.0145
2025-11-16 22:00: 0.0135
2025-11-16 23:00: 0.0130
2025-11-17 00:00: 0.0120
2025-11-17 01:00: 0.0115
2025-11-17 02:00: 0.0115
2025-11-17 03:00: 0.0115
2025-11-17 04:00: 0.0115
2025-11-17 05:00: 0.0115
2025-11-17 06:00: 0.0085
2025-11-17 07:00: 0.0090
2025-11-17 08:00: 0.0090
2025-11-17 09:00: 0.0090
2025-11-17 10:00: 0.0090
Trade Summary: Total trades: 3, Buy volume: 1186.29, Sell volume: 500.00, Average price: 0.3349, Price range: 0.0100 - 0.9747

Output: Yes