Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 516797
Question: Will Adrienne Adams win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 2365088.492362
Price History:
2025-04-07 16:00: 0.5000
2025-04-07 18:00: 0.9600
2025-04-07 21:00: 0.0400
2025-04-07 23:00: 0.9600
2025-04-08 02:00: 0.0400
2025-04-08 04:00: 0.9600
2025-04-08 07:00: 0.0350
2025-04-08 09:00: 0.9600
2025-04-08 12:00: 0.0150
2025-04-08 14:00: 0.9850
2025-04-08 17:00: 0.0150
2025-04-08 19:00: 0.9850
2025-04-08 22:00: 0.0150
2025-04-09 00:00: 0.9850
2025-04-09 03:00: 0.0150
2025-04-09 05:00: 0.9850
2025-04-09 08:00: 0.0150
2025-04-09 10:00: 0.9850
2025-04-09 13:00: 0.0110
2025-04-09 15:00: 0.9890
2025-04-09 18:00: 0.0110
2025-04-09 20:00: 0.9915
2025-04-09 23:00: 0.0090
2025-04-10 01:00: 0.9920
2025-04-10 04:00: 0.0085
2025-04-10 06:00: 0.9915
2025-04-10 09:00: 0.0085
2025-04-10 11:00: 0.9920
2025-04-10 14:00: 0.0090
2025-04-10 16:00: 0.9905
2025-04-10 19:00: 0.0100
2025-04-10 21:00: 0.9910
2025-04-11 00:00: 0.0085
2025-04-11 02:00: 0.9910
2025-04-11 05:00: 0.0105
2025-04-11 07:00: 0.9920
2025-04-11 10:00: 0.0080
2025-04-11 12:00: 0.9900
2025-04-11 15:00: 0.0090
2025-04-11 17:00: 0.9920
2025-04-11 20:00: 0.0070
2025-04-11 22:00: 0.9920
2025-04-12 01:00: 0.0075
2025-04-12 03:00: 0.9915
2025-04-12 06:00: 0.0090
2025-04-12 08:00: 0.9925
2025-04-12 11:00: 0.0070
2025-04-12 13:00: 0.9915
2025-04-12 16:00: 0.0085
2025-04-12 18:00: 0.9920
Trade Summary: Total trades: 1000000, Buy volume: 311343180.65, Sell volume: 75529108.55, Average price: 0.9083, Price range: 0.0010 - 0.9990

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 516797
Question: Will Adrienne Adams win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 2365088.492362
Price History:
2025-04-13 17:00: 0.0075
2025-04-13 19:00: 0.9930
2025-04-13 22:00: 0.0070
2025-04-14 00:00: 0.9930
2025-04-14 03:00: 0.0070
2025-04-14 05:00: 0.9930
2025-04-14 08:00: 0.0070
2025-04-14 10:00: 0.9925
2025-04-14 13:00: 0.0075
2025-04-14 15:00: 0.9925
2025-04-14 18:00: 0.0075
2025-04-14 20:00: 0.9925
2025-04-14 23:00: 0.0075
2025-04-15 01:00: 0.9925
2025-04-15 04:00: 0.0075
2025-04-15 06:00: 0.9925
2025-04-15 09:00: 0.0075
2025-04-15 11:00: 0.9925
2025-04-15 14:00: 0.0060
2025-04-15 16:00: 0.9940
2025-04-15 19:00: 0.0060
2025-04-15 21:00: 0.9935
2025-04-16 00:00: 0.0065
2025-04-16 02:00: 0.9935
2025-04-16 05:00: 0.0065
2025-04-16 07:00: 0.9935
2025-04-16 10:00: 0.0065
2025-04-16 12:00: 0.9935
2025-04-16 15:00: 0.0065
2025-04-16 17:00: 0.9935
2025-04-16 20:00: 0.0065
2025-04-16 22:00: 0.9935
2025-04-17 01:00: 0.0065
2025-04-17 03:00: 0.9935
2025-04-17 06:00: 0.0065
2025-04-17 08:00: 0.9935
2025-04-17 11:00: 0.0065
2025-04-17 13:00: 0.9935
2025-04-17 16:00: 0.0065
2025-04-17 18:00: 0.9935
2025-04-17 21:00: 0.0065
2025-04-17 23:00: 0.9935
2025-04-18 02:00: 0.0065
2025-04-18 04:00: 0.9935
2025-04-18 07:00: 0.0065
2025-04-18 09:00: 0.9935
2025-04-18 12:00: 0.0065
2025-04-18 14:00: 0.9935
2025-04-18 17:00: 0.0065
2025-04-18 19:00: 0.9935
Trade Summary: Total trades: 1000000, Buy volume: 311343180.65, Sell volume: 75529108.55, Average price: 0.9083, Price range: 0.0010 - 0.9990

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 516797
Question: Will Adrienne Adams win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 2365088.492362
Price History:
2025-04-19 18:00: 0.0070
2025-04-19 20:00: 0.9930
2025-04-19 23:00: 0.0070
2025-04-20 01:00: 0.9930
2025-04-20 04:00: 0.0070
2025-04-20 06:00: 0.9930
2025-04-20 09:00: 0.0070
2025-04-20 11:00: 0.9930
2025-04-20 14:00: 0.0070
2025-04-20 16:00: 0.9930
2025-04-20 19:00: 0.0070
2025-04-20 21:00: 0.9930
2025-04-21 00:00: 0.0070
2025-04-21 02:00: 0.9930
2025-04-21 05:00: 0.0070
2025-04-21 07:00: 0.9930
2025-04-21 10:00: 0.0070
2025-04-21 12:00: 0.9930
2025-04-21 15:00: 0.0070
2025-04-21 17:00: 0.9930
2025-04-21 20:00: 0.0070
2025-04-21 22:00: 0.9930
2025-04-22 01:00: 0.0070
2025-04-22 03:00: 0.9930
2025-04-22 06:00: 0.0070
2025-04-22 08:00: 0.9930
2025-04-22 11:00: 0.0070
2025-04-22 13:00: 0.9930
2025-04-22 16:00: 0.0070
2025-04-22 18:00: 0.9930
2025-04-22 21:00: 0.0070
2025-04-22 23:00: 0.9930
2025-04-23 02:00: 0.0070
2025-04-23 04:00: 0.9930
2025-04-23 07:00: 0.0070
2025-04-23 09:00: 0.9930
2025-04-23 12:00: 0.0070
2025-04-23 14:00: 0.9930
2025-04-23 17:00: 0.0070
2025-04-23 19:00: 0.9930
2025-04-23 22:00: 0.0070
2025-04-24 00:00: 0.9930
2025-04-24 03:00: 0.0070
2025-04-24 05:00: 0.9930
2025-04-24 08:00: 0.0070
2025-04-24 10:00: 0.9930
2025-04-24 13:00: 0.0075
2025-04-24 15:00: 0.9910
2025-04-24 18:00: 0.0090
2025-04-24 20:00: 0.9910
Trade Summary: Total trades: 1000000, Buy volume: 311343180.65, Sell volume: 75529108.55, Average price: 0.9083, Price range: 0.0010 - 0.9990

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 516797
Question: Will Adrienne Adams win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 2365088.492362
Price History:
2025-04-25 19:00: 0.0100
2025-04-25 21:00: 0.9900
2025-04-26 00:00: 0.0095
2025-04-26 02:00: 0.9905
2025-04-26 05:00: 0.0100
2025-04-26 07:00: 0.9900
2025-04-26 10:00: 0.0105
2025-04-26 12:00: 0.9890
2025-04-26 15:00: 0.0110
2025-04-26 17:00: 0.9840
2025-04-26 20:00: 0.0155
2025-04-26 22:00: 0.9850
2025-04-27 01:00: 0.0170
2025-04-27 03:00: 0.9875
2025-04-27 06:00: 0.0130
2025-04-27 08:00: 0.9870
2025-04-27 11:00: 0.0130
2025-04-27 13:00: 0.9870
2025-04-27 16:00: 0.0140
2025-04-27 18:00: 0.9875
2025-04-27 21:00: 0.0140
2025-04-27 23:00: 0.9865
2025-04-28 02:00: 0.0140
2025-04-28 04:00: 0.9825
2025-04-28 07:00: 0.0135
2025-04-28 09:00: 0.9870
2025-04-28 12:00: 0.0120
2025-04-28 14:00: 0.9880
2025-04-28 17:00: 0.0135
2025-04-28 19:00: 0.9865
2025-04-28 22:00: 0.0125
2025-04-29 00:00: 0.9865
2025-04-29 03:00: 0.0080
2025-04-29 05:00: 0.9925
2025-04-29 08:00: 0.0070
2025-04-29 10:00: 0.9930
2025-04-29 13:00: 0.0090
2025-04-29 15:00: 0.9945
2025-04-29 18:00: 0.0050
2025-04-29 20:00: 0.9950
2025-04-29 23:00: 0.0055
2025-04-30 01:00: 0.9950
2025-04-30 04:00: 0.0055
2025-04-30 06:00: 0.9925
2025-04-30 09:00: 0.0070
2025-04-30 11:00: 0.9950
2025-04-30 14:00: 0.0055
2025-04-30 16:00: 0.9950
2025-04-30 19:00: 0.0045
2025-04-30 21:00: 0.9955
Trade Summary: Total trades: 1000000, Buy volume: 311343180.65, Sell volume: 75529108.55, Average price: 0.9083, Price range: 0.0010 - 0.9990

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 516797
Question: Will Adrienne Adams win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 2365088.492362
Price History:
2025-05-01 20:00: 0.0045
2025-05-01 22:00: 0.9950
2025-05-02 01:00: 0.0050
2025-05-02 03:00: 0.9945
2025-05-02 06:00: 0.0050
2025-05-02 08:00: 0.9955
2025-05-02 11:00: 0.0045
2025-05-02 13:00: 0.9950
2025-05-02 16:00: 0.0045
2025-05-02 18:00: 0.9955
2025-05-02 21:00: 0.0050
2025-05-02 23:00: 0.9950
2025-05-03 02:00: 0.0050
2025-05-03 04:00: 0.9950
2025-05-03 07:00: 0.0040
2025-05-03 09:00: 0.9960
2025-05-03 12:00: 0.0040
2025-05-03 14:00: 0.9960
2025-05-03 17:00: 0.0040
2025-05-03 19:00: 0.9960
2025-05-03 22:00: 0.0040
2025-05-04 00:00: 0.9960
2025-05-04 03:00: 0.0040
2025-05-04 05:00: 0.9960
2025-05-04 08:00: 0.0040
2025-05-04 10:00: 0.9960
2025-05-04 13:00: 0.0040
2025-05-04 15:00: 0.9960
2025-05-04 18:00: 0.0040
2025-05-04 20:00: 0.9960
2025-05-04 23:00: 0.0040
2025-05-05 01:00: 0.9960
2025-05-05 04:00: 0.0040
2025-05-05 06:00: 0.9960
2025-05-05 09:00: 0.0040
2025-05-05 11:00: 0.9960
2025-05-05 14:00: 0.0040
2025-05-05 16:00: 0.9960
2025-05-05 19:00: 0.0040
2025-05-05 21:00: 0.9960
2025-05-06 00:00: 0.0040
2025-05-06 02:00: 0.9960
2025-05-06 05:00: 0.0040
2025-05-06 07:00: 0.9960
2025-05-06 10:00: 0.0040
2025-05-06 12:00: 0.9960
2025-05-06 15:00: 0.0040
2025-05-06 17:00: 0.9960
2025-05-06 20:00: 0.0040
2025-05-06 22:00: 0.9960
Trade Summary: Total trades: 1000000, Buy volume: 311343180.65, Sell volume: 75529108.55, Average price: 0.9083, Price range: 0.0010 - 0.9990

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 516797
Question: Will Adrienne Adams win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 2365088.492362
Price History:
2025-05-07 21:00: 0.0045
2025-05-07 23:00: 0.9955
2025-05-08 02:00: 0.0045
2025-05-08 04:00: 0.9955
2025-05-08 07:00: 0.0045
2025-05-08 09:00: 0.9955
2025-05-08 12:00: 0.0040
2025-05-08 14:00: 0.9965
2025-05-08 17:00: 0.0035
2025-05-08 19:00: 0.9965
2025-05-08 22:00: 0.0035
2025-05-09 00:00: 0.9965
2025-05-09 03:00: 0.0035
2025-05-09 05:00: 0.9970
2025-05-09 08:00: 0.0035
2025-05-09 10:00: 0.9960
2025-05-09 13:00: 0.0040
2025-05-09 15:00: 0.9960
2025-05-09 18:00: 0.0045
2025-05-09 20:00: 0.9930
2025-05-09 23:00: 0.0065
2025-05-10 01:00: 0.9935
2025-05-10 04:00: 0.0075
2025-05-10 06:00: 0.9960
2025-05-10 09:00: 0.0040
2025-05-10 11:00: 0.9960
2025-05-10 14:00: 0.0065
2025-05-10 16:00: 0.9940
2025-05-10 19:00: 0.0055
2025-05-10 21:00: 0.9945
2025-05-11 00:00: 0.0055
2025-05-11 02:00: 0.9945
2025-05-11 05:00: 0.0055
2025-05-11 07:00: 0.9945
2025-05-11 10:00: 0.0055
2025-05-11 12:00: 0.9945
2025-05-11 15:00: 0.0055
2025-05-11 17:00: 0.9950
2025-05-11 20:00: 0.0055
2025-05-11 22:00: 0.9945
2025-05-12 01:00: 0.0055
2025-05-12 03:00: 0.9945
2025-05-12 06:00: 0.0060
2025-05-12 08:00: 0.9940
2025-05-12 11:00: 0.0070
2025-05-12 13:00: 0.9930
2025-05-12 16:00: 0.0045
2025-05-12 18:00: 0.9955
2025-05-12 21:00: 0.0045
2025-05-12 23:00: 0.9955
Trade Summary: Total trades: 1000000, Buy volume: 311343180.65, Sell volume: 75529108.55, Average price: 0.9083, Price range: 0.0010 - 0.9990

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 516797
Question: Will Adrienne Adams win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 2365088.492362
Price History:
2025-05-13 22:00: 0.0080
2025-05-14 00:00: 0.9920
2025-05-14 03:00: 0.0050
2025-05-14 05:00: 0.9950
2025-05-14 08:00: 0.0080
2025-05-14 10:00: 0.9970
2025-05-14 13:00: 0.0020
2025-05-14 15:00: 0.9980
2025-05-14 18:00: 0.0015
2025-05-14 20:00: 0.9985
2025-05-14 23:00: 0.0015
2025-05-15 01:00: 0.9985
2025-05-15 04:00: 0.0015
2025-05-15 06:00: 0.9985
2025-05-15 09:00: 0.0015
2025-05-15 11:00: 0.9985
2025-05-15 14:00: 0.0015
2025-05-15 16:00: 0.9975
2025-05-15 19:00: 0.0025
2025-05-15 21:00: 0.9975
2025-05-16 00:00: 0.0040
2025-05-16 02:00: 0.9960
2025-05-16 05:00: 0.0035
2025-05-16 07:00: 0.9965
2025-05-16 10:00: 0.0035
2025-05-16 12:00: 0.9965
2025-05-16 15:00: 0.0035
2025-05-16 17:00: 0.9940
2025-05-16 20:00: 0.0085
2025-05-16 22:00: 0.9945
2025-05-17 01:00: 0.0060
2025-05-17 03:00: 0.9940
2025-05-17 06:00: 0.0075
2025-05-17 08:00: 0.9925
2025-05-17 11:00: 0.0065
2025-05-17 13:00: 0.9930
2025-05-17 16:00: 0.0070
2025-05-17 18:00: 0.9930
2025-05-17 21:00: 0.0065
2025-05-17 23:00: 0.9935
2025-05-18 02:00: 0.0065
2025-05-18 04:00: 0.9935
2025-05-18 07:00: 0.0065
2025-05-18 09:00: 0.9935
2025-05-18 12:00: 0.0095
2025-05-18 14:00: 0.9905
2025-05-18 17:00: 0.0095
2025-05-18 19:00: 0.9905
2025-05-18 22:00: 0.0095
2025-05-19 00:00: 0.9955
Trade Summary: Total trades: 1000000, Buy volume: 311343180.65, Sell volume: 75529108.55, Average price: 0.9083, Price range: 0.0010 - 0.9990

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 516797
Question: Will Adrienne Adams win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 2365088.492362
Price History:
2025-05-19 23:00: 0.0050
2025-05-20 01:00: 0.9950
2025-05-20 04:00: 0.0060
2025-05-20 06:00: 0.9940
2025-05-20 09:00: 0.0065
2025-05-20 11:00: 0.9920
2025-05-20 14:00: 0.0080
2025-05-20 16:00: 0.9925
2025-05-20 19:00: 0.0080
2025-05-20 21:00: 0.9915
2025-05-21 00:00: 0.0070
2025-05-21 02:00: 0.9940
2025-05-21 05:00: 0.0110
2025-05-21 07:00: 0.9895
2025-05-21 10:00: 0.0065
2025-05-21 12:00: 0.9935
2025-05-21 15:00: 0.0055
2025-05-21 17:00: 0.9945
2025-05-21 20:00: 0.0055
2025-05-21 22:00: 0.9945
2025-05-22 01:00: 0.0040
2025-05-22 03:00: 0.9960
2025-05-22 06:00: 0.0040
2025-05-22 08:00: 0.9960
2025-05-22 11:00: 0.0040
2025-05-22 13:00: 0.9960
2025-05-22 16:00: 0.0040
2025-05-22 18:00: 0.9960
2025-05-22 21:00: 0.0040
2025-05-22 23:00: 0.9960
2025-05-23 02:00: 0.0040
2025-05-23 04:00: 0.9960
2025-05-23 07:00: 0.0040
2025-05-23 09:00: 0.9960
2025-05-23 12:00: 0.0040
2025-05-23 14:00: 0.9960
2025-05-23 17:00: 0.0040
2025-05-23 19:00: 0.9960
2025-05-23 22:00: 0.0040
2025-05-24 00:00: 0.9960
2025-05-24 03:00: 0.0035
2025-05-24 05:00: 0.9960
2025-05-24 08:00: 0.0040
2025-05-24 10:00: 0.9960
2025-05-24 13:00: 0.0035
2025-05-24 15:00: 0.9960
2025-05-24 18:00: 0.0040
2025-05-24 20:00: 0.9960
2025-05-24 23:00: 0.0040
2025-05-25 01:00: 0.9960
Trade Summary: Total trades: 1000000, Buy volume: 311343180.65, Sell volume: 75529108.55, Average price: 0.9083, Price range: 0.0010 - 0.9990

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 516797
Question: Will Adrienne Adams win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 2365088.492362
Price History:
2025-05-26 00:00: 0.0045
2025-05-26 02:00: 0.9955
2025-05-26 05:00: 0.0045
2025-05-26 07:00: 0.9955
2025-05-26 10:00: 0.0045
2025-05-26 12:00: 0.9955
2025-05-26 15:00: 0.0045
2025-05-26 17:00: 0.9955
2025-05-26 20:00: 0.0045
2025-05-26 22:00: 0.9955
2025-05-27 01:00: 0.0045
2025-05-27 03:00: 0.9955
2025-05-27 06:00: 0.0045
2025-05-27 08:00: 0.9955
2025-05-27 11:00: 0.0045
2025-05-27 13:00: 0.9955
2025-05-27 16:00: 0.0045
2025-05-27 18:00: 0.9955
2025-05-27 21:00: 0.0045
2025-05-27 23:00: 0.9955
2025-05-28 02:00: 0.0045
2025-05-28 04:00: 0.9955
2025-05-28 07:00: 0.0045
2025-05-28 09:00: 0.9955
2025-05-28 12:00: 0.0045
2025-05-28 14:00: 0.9955
2025-05-28 17:00: 0.0045
2025-05-28 19:00: 0.9955
2025-05-28 22:00: 0.0025
2025-05-29 00:00: 0.9975
2025-05-29 03:00: 0.0020
2025-05-29 05:00: 0.9980
2025-05-29 08:00: 0.0020
2025-05-29 10:00: 0.9985
2025-05-29 13:00: 0.0015
2025-05-29 15:00: 0.9985
2025-05-29 18:00: 0.0030
2025-05-29 20:00: 0.9970
2025-05-29 23:00: 0.0030
2025-05-30 01:00: 0.9970
2025-05-30 04:00: 0.0025
2025-05-30 06:00: 0.9975
2025-05-30 09:00: 0.0025
2025-05-30 11:00: 0.9975
2025-05-30 14:00: 0.0035
2025-05-30 16:00: 0.9965
2025-05-30 19:00: 0.0025
2025-05-30 21:00: 0.9970
2025-05-31 00:00: 0.0025
2025-05-31 02:00: 0.9970
Trade Summary: Total trades: 1000000, Buy volume: 311343180.65, Sell volume: 75529108.55, Average price: 0.9083, Price range: 0.0010 - 0.9990

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 516797
Question: Will Adrienne Adams win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 2365088.492362
Price History:
2025-06-01 01:00: 0.0020
2025-06-01 03:00: 0.9980
2025-06-01 06:00: 0.0020
2025-06-01 08:00: 0.9980
2025-06-01 11:00: 0.0015
2025-06-01 13:00: 0.9985
2025-06-01 16:00: 0.0015
2025-06-01 18:00: 0.9985
2025-06-01 21:00: 0.0015
2025-06-01 23:00: 0.9985
2025-06-02 02:00: 0.0015
2025-06-02 04:00: 0.9985
2025-06-02 07:00: 0.0025
2025-06-02 09:00: 0.9955
2025-06-02 12:00: 0.0045
2025-06-02 14:00: 0.9955
2025-06-02 17:00: 0.0045
2025-06-02 19:00: 0.9955
2025-06-02 22:00: 0.0045
2025-06-03 00:00: 0.9955
2025-06-03 03:00: 0.0045
2025-06-03 05:00: 0.9955
2025-06-03 08:00: 0.0045
2025-06-03 10:00: 0.9955
2025-06-03 13:00: 0.0055
2025-06-03 15:00: 0.9925
2025-06-03 18:00: 0.0055
2025-06-03 20:00: 0.9955
2025-06-03 23:00: 0.0050
2025-06-04 01:00: 0.9940
2025-06-04 04:00: 0.0070
2025-06-04 06:00: 0.9930
2025-06-04 09:00: 0.0065
2025-06-04 11:00: 0.9935
2025-06-04 14:00: 0.0085
2025-06-04 16:00: 0.9910
2025-06-04 19:00: 0.0070
2025-06-04 21:00: 0.9950
2025-06-05 00:00: 0.0040
2025-06-05 02:00: 0.9960
2025-06-05 05:00: 0.0040
2025-06-05 07:00: 0.9970
2025-06-05 10:00: 0.0030
2025-06-05 12:00: 0.9975
2025-06-05 15:00: 0.0035
2025-06-05 17:00: 0.9965
2025-06-05 20:00: 0.0035
2025-06-05 22:00: 0.9960
2025-06-06 01:00: 0.0035
2025-06-06 03:00: 0.9965
Trade Summary: Total trades: 1000000, Buy volume: 311343180.65, Sell volume: 75529108.55, Average price: 0.9083, Price range: 0.0010 - 0.9990

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 516797
Question: Will Adrienne Adams win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 2365088.492362
Price History:
2025-06-07 02:00: 0.0035
2025-06-07 04:00: 0.9975
2025-06-07 07:00: 0.0025
2025-06-07 09:00: 0.9975
2025-06-07 12:00: 0.0025
2025-06-07 14:00: 0.9975
2025-06-07 17:00: 0.0025
2025-06-07 19:00: 0.9975
2025-06-07 22:00: 0.0025
2025-06-08 00:00: 0.9965
2025-06-08 03:00: 0.0025
2025-06-08 05:00: 0.9975
2025-06-08 08:00: 0.0025
2025-06-08 10:00: 0.9975
2025-06-08 13:00: 0.0025
2025-06-08 15:00: 0.9975
2025-06-08 18:00: 0.0025
2025-06-08 20:00: 0.9975
2025-06-08 23:00: 0.0035
2025-06-09 01:00: 0.9965
2025-06-09 04:00: 0.0035
2025-06-09 06:00: 0.9970
2025-06-09 09:00: 0.0025
2025-06-09 11:00: 0.9975
2025-06-09 14:00: 0.0025
2025-06-09 16:00: 0.9975
2025-06-09 19:00: 0.0025
2025-06-09 21:00: 0.9975
2025-06-10 00:00: 0.0025
2025-06-10 02:00: 0.9975
2025-06-10 05:00: 0.0025
2025-06-10 07:00: 0.9975
2025-06-10 10:00: 0.0020
2025-06-10 12:00: 0.9985
2025-06-10 15:00: 0.0015
2025-06-10 17:00: 0.9985
2025-06-10 20:00: 0.0025
2025-06-10 22:00: 0.9975
2025-06-11 01:00: 0.0025
2025-06-11 03:00: 0.9975
2025-06-11 06:00: 0.0025
2025-06-11 08:00: 0.9975
2025-06-11 11:00: 0.0025
2025-06-11 13:00: 0.9975
2025-06-11 16:00: 0.0025
2025-06-11 18:00: 0.9975
2025-06-11 21:00: 0.0025
2025-06-11 23:00: 0.9975
2025-06-12 02:00: 0.0025
2025-06-12 04:00: 0.9975
Trade Summary: Total trades: 467532, Buy volume: 99047714.47, Sell volume: 37670611.68, Average price: 0.8916, Price range: 0.0020 - 0.9980

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 516797
Question: Will Adrienne Adams win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 2365088.492362
Price History:
2025-06-13 04:00: 0.0025
2025-06-13 06:00: 0.9975
2025-06-13 09:00: 0.0035
2025-06-13 11:00: 0.9975
2025-06-13 14:00: 0.0025
2025-06-13 16:00: 0.9975
2025-06-13 19:00: 0.0025
2025-06-13 21:00: 0.9975
2025-06-14 00:00: 0.0025
2025-06-14 02:00: 0.9975
2025-06-14 05:00: 0.0025
2025-06-14 07:00: 0.9985
2025-06-14 10:00: 0.0015
2025-06-14 12:00: 0.9985
2025-06-14 15:00: 0.0015
2025-06-14 17:00: 0.9985
2025-06-14 20:00: 0.0015
2025-06-14 22:00: 0.9985
2025-06-15 01:00: 0.0015
2025-06-15 03:00: 0.9985
2025-06-15 06:00: 0.0015
2025-06-15 08:00: 0.9985
2025-06-15 11:00: 0.0015
2025-06-15 13:00: 0.9985
2025-06-15 16:00: 0.0015
2025-06-15 18:00: 0.9985
2025-06-15 21:00: 0.0015
2025-06-15 23:00: 0.9985
2025-06-16 02:00: 0.0015
2025-06-16 04:00: 0.9985
2025-06-16 07:00: 0.0015
2025-06-16 09:00: 0.9985
2025-06-16 12:00: 0.0015
2025-06-16 14:00: 0.9985
2025-06-16 17:00: 0.0015
2025-06-16 19:00: 0.9995
2025-06-16 22:00: 0.0005
2025-06-17 00:00: 0.9995
2025-06-17 03:00: 0.0005
2025-06-17 05:00: 0.9995
2025-06-17 08:00: 0.0005
2025-06-17 10:00: 0.9995
2025-06-17 13:00: 0.0005
2025-06-17 15:00: 0.9995
2025-06-17 18:00: 0.0005
2025-06-17 20:00: 0.9995
2025-06-17 23:00: 0.0005
2025-06-18 01:00: 0.9995
2025-06-18 04:00: 0.0005
2025-06-18 06:00: 0.9995
Trade Summary: Total trades: 470514, Buy volume: 202839368.72, Sell volume: 34450853.96, Average price: 0.9173, Price range: 0.0010 - 0.9990

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 516797
Question: Will Adrienne Adams win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 2365088.492362
Price History:
2025-06-19 05:00: 0.0005
2025-06-19 07:00: 0.9995
2025-06-19 10:00: 0.0005
2025-06-19 12:00: 0.9995
2025-06-19 15:00: 0.0005
2025-06-19 17:00: 0.9995
2025-06-19 20:00: 0.0005
2025-06-19 22:00: 0.9995
2025-06-20 01:00: 0.0005
2025-06-20 03:00: 0.9995
2025-06-20 06:00: 0.0005
2025-06-20 08:00: 0.9995
2025-06-20 11:00: 0.0005
2025-06-20 13:00: 0.9995
2025-06-20 16:00: 0.0005
2025-06-20 18:00: 0.9995
2025-06-20 21:00: 0.0005
2025-06-20 23:00: 0.9995
2025-06-21 02:00: 0.0005
2025-06-21 04:00: 0.9995
2025-06-21 07:00: 0.0005
2025-06-21 09:00: 0.9995
2025-06-21 12:00: 0.0005
2025-06-21 14:00: 0.9995
2025-06-21 17:00: 0.0005
2025-06-21 19:00: 0.9995
2025-06-21 22:00: 0.0005
2025-06-22 00:00: 0.9995
2025-06-22 03:00: 0.0005
2025-06-22 05:00: 0.9995
2025-06-22 08:00: 0.0005
2025-06-22 10:00: 0.9995
2025-06-22 13:00: 0.0005
2025-06-22 15:00: 0.9995
2025-06-22 18:00: 0.0005
2025-06-22 20:00: 0.9995
2025-06-22 23:00: 0.0005
2025-06-23 01:00: 0.9995
2025-06-23 04:00: 0.0005
2025-06-23 06:00: 0.9995
2025-06-23 09:00: 0.0005
2025-06-23 11:00: 0.9995
2025-06-23 14:00: 0.0005
2025-06-23 16:00: 0.9995
2025-06-23 19:00: 0.0005
2025-06-23 21:00: 0.9995
2025-06-24 00:00: 0.0005
2025-06-24 02:00: 0.9995
2025-06-24 05:00: 0.0005
2025-06-24 07:00: 0.9995
Trade Summary: Total trades: 16, Buy volume: 15000.00, Sell volume: 1971.99, Average price: 0.4376, Price range: 0.0010 - 0.9990

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 516797
Question: Will Adrienne Adams win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City?
Volume: 2365088.492362
Price History:
2025-04-07 16:00: 0.5000
2025-04-07 20:00: 0.9600
2025-04-08 01:00: 0.0400
2025-04-08 05:00: 0.9800
2025-04-08 10:00: 0.0400
2025-04-08 14:00: 0.9850
2025-04-08 19:00: 0.0150
2025-04-08 23:00: 0.9850
2025-04-09 04:00: 0.0150
2025-04-09 08:00: 0.9850
2025-04-09 13:00: 0.0110
2025-04-09 17:00: 0.9875
2025-04-09 22:00: 0.0090
2025-04-10 02:00: 0.9920
2025-04-10 07:00: 0.0085
2025-04-10 11:00: 0.9920
2025-04-10 16:00: 0.0095
2025-04-10 20:00: 0.9915
2025-04-11 01:00: 0.0110
2025-04-11 05:00: 0.9895
2025-04-11 10:00: 0.0080
2025-04-11 14:00: 0.9895
2025-04-11 19:00: 0.0090
2025-04-11 23:00: 0.9925
2025-04-12 04:00: 0.0090
2025-04-12 08:00: 0.9925
2025-04-12 13:00: 0.0085
2025-04-12 17:00: 0.9920
2025-04-12 22:00: 0.0085
2025-04-13 02:00: 0.9930
Trade Summary: Total trades: 1000000, Buy volume: 311343180.65, Sell volume: 75529108.55, Average price: 0.9083, Price range: 0.0010 - 0.9990
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike, wash_trading

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 516797
Question: Will Adrienne Adams win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City?
Volume: 2365088.492362
Price History:
2025-04-13 17:00: 0.0075
2025-04-13 21:00: 0.9925
2025-04-14 02:00: 0.0075
2025-04-14 06:00: 0.9935
2025-04-14 11:00: 0.0075
2025-04-14 15:00: 0.9925
2025-04-14 20:00: 0.0075
2025-04-15 00:00: 0.9925
2025-04-15 05:00: 0.0075
2025-04-15 09:00: 0.9925
2025-04-15 14:00: 0.0060
2025-04-15 18:00: 0.9940
2025-04-15 23:00: 0.0065
2025-04-16 03:00: 0.9935
2025-04-16 08:00: 0.0065
2025-04-16 12:00: 0.9935
2025-04-16 17:00: 0.0065
2025-04-16 21:00: 0.9935
2025-04-17 02:00: 0.0065
2025-04-17 06:00: 0.9935
2025-04-17 11:00: 0.0065
2025-04-17 15:00: 0.9935
2025-04-17 20:00: 0.0065
2025-04-18 00:00: 0.9935
2025-04-18 05:00: 0.0065
2025-04-18 09:00: 0.9935
2025-04-18 14:00: 0.0065
2025-04-18 18:00: 0.9935
2025-04-18 23:00: 0.0065
2025-04-19 03:00: 0.9935
Trade Summary: Total trades: 1000000, Buy volume: 311343180.65, Sell volume: 75529108.55, Average price: 0.9083, Price range: 0.0010 - 0.9990
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike, wash_trading

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 516797
Question: Will Adrienne Adams win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City?
Volume: 2365088.492362
Price History:
2025-04-19 18:00: 0.0070
2025-04-19 22:00: 0.9930
2025-04-20 03:00: 0.0070
2025-04-20 07:00: 0.9930
2025-04-20 12:00: 0.0070
2025-04-20 16:00: 0.9930
2025-04-20 21:00: 0.0070
2025-04-21 01:00: 0.9930
2025-04-21 06:00: 0.0070
2025-04-21 10:00: 0.9930
2025-04-21 15:00: 0.0070
2025-04-21 19:00: 0.9930
2025-04-22 00:00: 0.0070
2025-04-22 04:00: 0.9930
2025-04-22 09:00: 0.0070
2025-04-22 13:00: 0.9930
2025-04-22 18:00: 0.0070
2025-04-22 22:00: 0.9930
2025-04-23 03:00: 0.0070
2025-04-23 07:00: 0.9930
2025-04-23 12:00: 0.0070
2025-04-23 16:00: 0.9930
2025-04-23 21:00: 0.0070
2025-04-24 01:00: 0.9930
2025-04-24 06:00: 0.0070
2025-04-24 10:00: 0.9930
2025-04-24 15:00: 0.0090
2025-04-24 19:00: 0.9910
2025-04-25 00:00: 0.0090
2025-04-25 04:00: 0.9910
Trade Summary: Total trades: 1000000, Buy volume: 311343180.65, Sell volume: 75529108.55, Average price: 0.9083, Price range: 0.0010 - 0.9990
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike, wash_trading

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 516797
Question: Will Adrienne Adams win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City?
Volume: 2365088.492362
Price History:
2025-04-25 19:00: 0.0100
2025-04-25 23:00: 0.9900
2025-04-26 04:00: 0.0095
2025-04-26 08:00: 0.9895
2025-04-26 13:00: 0.0110
2025-04-26 17:00: 0.9840
2025-04-26 22:00: 0.0150
2025-04-27 02:00: 0.9875
2025-04-27 07:00: 0.0130
2025-04-27 11:00: 0.9870
2025-04-27 16:00: 0.0140
2025-04-27 20:00: 0.9865
2025-04-28 01:00: 0.0140
2025-04-28 05:00: 0.9865
2025-04-28 10:00: 0.0120
2025-04-28 14:00: 0.9880
2025-04-28 19:00: 0.0135
2025-04-28 23:00: 0.9855
2025-04-29 04:00: 0.0100
2025-04-29 08:00: 0.9930
2025-04-29 13:00: 0.0090
2025-04-29 17:00: 0.9950
2025-04-29 22:00: 0.0050
2025-04-30 02:00: 0.9950
2025-04-30 07:00: 0.0050
2025-04-30 11:00: 0.9950
2025-04-30 16:00: 0.0050
2025-04-30 20:00: 0.9955
2025-05-01 01:00: 0.0045
2025-05-01 05:00: 0.9960
Trade Summary: Total trades: 1000000, Buy volume: 311343180.65, Sell volume: 75529108.55, Average price: 0.9083, Price range: 0.0010 - 0.9990
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike, wash_trading

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 516797
Question: Will Adrienne Adams win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City?
Volume: 2365088.492362
Price History:
2025-05-01 20:00: 0.0045
2025-05-02 00:00: 0.9950
2025-05-02 05:00: 0.0050
2025-05-02 09:00: 0.9960
2025-05-02 14:00: 0.0045
2025-05-02 18:00: 0.9955
2025-05-02 23:00: 0.0050
2025-05-03 03:00: 0.9950
2025-05-03 08:00: 0.0040
2025-05-03 12:00: 0.9960
2025-05-03 17:00: 0.0040
2025-05-03 21:00: 0.9960
2025-05-04 02:00: 0.0040
2025-05-04 06:00: 0.9960
2025-05-04 11:00: 0.0040
2025-05-04 15:00: 0.9960
2025-05-04 20:00: 0.0040
2025-05-05 00:00: 0.9960
2025-05-05 05:00: 0.0040
2025-05-05 09:00: 0.9960
2025-05-05 14:00: 0.0040
2025-05-05 18:00: 0.9960
2025-05-05 23:00: 0.0040
2025-05-06 03:00: 0.9960
2025-05-06 08:00: 0.0040
2025-05-06 12:00: 0.9960
2025-05-06 17:00: 0.0040
2025-05-06 21:00: 0.9960
2025-05-07 02:00: 0.0040
2025-05-07 06:00: 0.9960
Trade Summary: Total trades: 1000000, Buy volume: 311343180.65, Sell volume: 75529108.55, Average price: 0.9083, Price range: 0.0010 - 0.9990
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike, wash_trading

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 516797
Question: Will Adrienne Adams win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City?
Volume: 2365088.492362
Price History:
2025-05-07 21:00: 0.0045
2025-05-08 01:00: 0.9955
2025-05-08 06:00: 0.0045
2025-05-08 10:00: 0.9955
2025-05-08 15:00: 0.0035
2025-05-08 19:00: 0.9965
2025-05-09 00:00: 0.0035
2025-05-09 04:00: 0.9965
2025-05-09 09:00: 0.0035
2025-05-09 13:00: 0.9960
2025-05-09 18:00: 0.0045
2025-05-09 22:00: 0.9935
2025-05-10 03:00: 0.0065
2025-05-10 07:00: 0.9960
2025-05-10 12:00: 0.0055
2025-05-10 16:00: 0.9940
2025-05-10 21:00: 0.0055
2025-05-11 01:00: 0.9945
2025-05-11 06:00: 0.0055
2025-05-11 10:00: 0.9945
2025-05-11 15:00: 0.0055
2025-05-11 19:00: 0.9945
2025-05-12 00:00: 0.0055
2025-05-12 04:00: 0.9940
2025-05-12 09:00: 0.0070
2025-05-12 13:00: 0.9930
2025-05-12 18:00: 0.0045
2025-05-12 22:00: 0.9955
2025-05-13 03:00: 0.0190
2025-05-13 07:00: 0.9780
Trade Summary: Total trades: 1000000, Buy volume: 311343180.65, Sell volume: 75529108.55, Average price: 0.9083, Price range: 0.0010 - 0.9990
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike, wash_trading

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 516797
Question: Will Adrienne Adams win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City?
Volume: 2365088.492362
Price History:
2025-05-13 22:00: 0.0080
2025-05-14 02:00: 0.9920
2025-05-14 07:00: 0.0100
2025-05-14 11:00: 0.9970
2025-05-14 16:00: 0.0015
2025-05-14 20:00: 0.9985
2025-05-15 01:00: 0.0015
2025-05-15 05:00: 0.9985
2025-05-15 10:00: 0.0015
2025-05-15 14:00: 0.9985
2025-05-15 19:00: 0.0025
2025-05-15 23:00: 0.9960
2025-05-16 04:00: 0.0040
2025-05-16 08:00: 0.9965
2025-05-16 13:00: 0.0035
2025-05-16 17:00: 0.9940
2025-05-16 22:00: 0.0055
2025-05-17 02:00: 0.9940
2025-05-17 07:00: 0.0075
2025-05-17 11:00: 0.9935
2025-05-17 16:00: 0.0070
2025-05-17 20:00: 0.9935
2025-05-18 01:00: 0.0065
2025-05-18 05:00: 0.9930
2025-05-18 10:00: 0.0065
2025-05-18 14:00: 0.9905
2025-05-18 19:00: 0.0095
2025-05-18 23:00: 0.9955
2025-05-19 04:00: 0.0050
2025-05-19 08:00: 0.9950
Trade Summary: Total trades: 1000000, Buy volume: 311343180.65, Sell volume: 75529108.55, Average price: 0.9083, Price range: 0.0010 - 0.9990
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike, wash_trading

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 516797
Question: Will Adrienne Adams win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City?
Volume: 2365088.492362
Price History:
2025-05-19 23:00: 0.0050
2025-05-20 03:00: 0.9940
2025-05-20 08:00: 0.0065
2025-05-20 12:00: 0.9915
2025-05-20 17:00: 0.0075
2025-05-20 21:00: 0.9915
2025-05-21 02:00: 0.0060
2025-05-21 06:00: 0.9900
2025-05-21 11:00: 0.0065
2025-05-21 15:00: 0.9945
2025-05-21 20:00: 0.0055
2025-05-22 00:00: 0.9945
2025-05-22 05:00: 0.0040
2025-05-22 09:00: 0.9960
2025-05-22 14:00: 0.0040
2025-05-22 18:00: 0.9960
2025-05-22 23:00: 0.0040
2025-05-23 03:00: 0.9960
2025-05-23 08:00: 0.0040
2025-05-23 12:00: 0.9960
2025-05-23 17:00: 0.0040
2025-05-23 21:00: 0.9960
2025-05-24 02:00: 0.0040
2025-05-24 06:00: 0.9960
2025-05-24 11:00: 0.0040
2025-05-24 15:00: 0.9960
2025-05-24 20:00: 0.0040
2025-05-25 00:00: 0.9960
2025-05-25 05:00: 0.0040
2025-05-25 09:00: 0.9960
Trade Summary: Total trades: 1000000, Buy volume: 311343180.65, Sell volume: 75529108.55, Average price: 0.9083, Price range: 0.0010 - 0.9990
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike, wash_trading

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 516797
Question: Will Adrienne Adams win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City?
Volume: 2365088.492362
Price History:
2025-05-26 00:00: 0.0045
2025-05-26 04:00: 0.9955
2025-05-26 09:00: 0.0045
2025-05-26 13:00: 0.9955
2025-05-26 18:00: 0.0045
2025-05-26 22:00: 0.9955
2025-05-27 03:00: 0.0045
2025-05-27 07:00: 0.9955
2025-05-27 12:00: 0.0045
2025-05-27 16:00: 0.9955
2025-05-27 21:00: 0.0045
2025-05-28 01:00: 0.9955
2025-05-28 06:00: 0.0045
2025-05-28 10:00: 0.9955
2025-05-28 15:00: 0.0045
2025-05-28 19:00: 0.9955
2025-05-29 00:00: 0.0025
2025-05-29 04:00: 0.9980
2025-05-29 09:00: 0.0015
2025-05-29 13:00: 0.9985
2025-05-29 18:00: 0.0030
2025-05-29 22:00: 0.9970
2025-05-30 03:00: 0.0025
2025-05-30 07:00: 0.9975
2025-05-30 12:00: 0.0025
2025-05-30 16:00: 0.9965
2025-05-30 21:00: 0.0030
2025-05-31 01:00: 0.9970
2025-05-31 06:00: 0.0025
2025-05-31 10:00: 0.9975
Trade Summary: Total trades: 1000000, Buy volume: 311343180.65, Sell volume: 75529108.55, Average price: 0.9083, Price range: 0.0010 - 0.9990
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike, wash_trading

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 516797
Question: Will Adrienne Adams win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City?
Volume: 2365088.492362
Price History:
2025-06-01 01:00: 0.0020
2025-06-01 05:00: 0.9980
2025-06-01 10:00: 0.0015
2025-06-01 14:00: 0.9985
2025-06-01 19:00: 0.0015
2025-06-01 23:00: 0.9985
2025-06-02 04:00: 0.0015
2025-06-02 08:00: 0.9965
2025-06-02 13:00: 0.0045
2025-06-02 17:00: 0.9955
2025-06-02 22:00: 0.0045
2025-06-03 02:00: 0.9955
2025-06-03 07:00: 0.0045
2025-06-03 11:00: 0.9955
2025-06-03 16:00: 0.0075
2025-06-03 20:00: 0.9955
2025-06-04 01:00: 0.0060
2025-06-04 05:00: 0.9930
2025-06-04 10:00: 0.0065
2025-06-04 14:00: 0.9915
2025-06-04 19:00: 0.0070
2025-06-04 23:00: 0.9960
2025-06-05 04:00: 0.0040
2025-06-05 08:00: 0.9970
2025-06-05 13:00: 0.0025
2025-06-05 17:00: 0.9965
2025-06-05 22:00: 0.0040
2025-06-06 02:00: 0.9965
2025-06-06 07:00: 0.0035
2025-06-06 11:00: 0.9960
Trade Summary: Total trades: 1000000, Buy volume: 311343180.65, Sell volume: 75529108.55, Average price: 0.9083, Price range: 0.0010 - 0.9990
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike, wash_trading

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 516797
Question: Will Adrienne Adams win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City?
Volume: 2365088.492362
Price History:
2025-06-07 02:00: 0.0035
2025-06-07 06:00: 0.9975
2025-06-07 11:00: 0.0025
2025-06-07 15:00: 0.9975
2025-06-07 20:00: 0.0025
2025-06-08 00:00: 0.9965
2025-06-08 05:00: 0.0025
2025-06-08 09:00: 0.9975
2025-06-08 14:00: 0.0025
2025-06-08 18:00: 0.9975
2025-06-08 23:00: 0.0035
2025-06-09 03:00: 0.9965
2025-06-09 08:00: 0.0030
2025-06-09 12:00: 0.9975
2025-06-09 17:00: 0.0025
2025-06-09 21:00: 0.9975
2025-06-10 02:00: 0.0025
2025-06-10 06:00: 0.9975
2025-06-10 11:00: 0.0020
2025-06-10 15:00: 0.9985
2025-06-10 20:00: 0.0025
2025-06-11 00:00: 0.9975
2025-06-11 05:00: 0.0025
2025-06-11 09:00: 0.9975
2025-06-11 14:00: 0.0025
2025-06-11 18:00: 0.9975
2025-06-11 23:00: 0.0025
2025-06-12 03:00: 0.9975
2025-06-12 08:00: 0.0025
2025-06-12 12:00: 0.9975
Trade Summary: Total trades: 467532, Buy volume: 99047714.47, Sell volume: 37670611.68, Average price: 0.8916, Price range: 0.0020 - 0.9980
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike, wash_trading

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 516797
Question: Will Adrienne Adams win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City?
Volume: 2365088.492362
Price History:
2025-06-13 04:00: 0.0025
2025-06-13 08:00: 0.9965
2025-06-13 13:00: 0.0025
2025-06-13 17:00: 0.9975
2025-06-13 22:00: 0.0025
2025-06-14 02:00: 0.9975
2025-06-14 07:00: 0.0015
2025-06-14 11:00: 0.9985
2025-06-14 16:00: 0.0015
2025-06-14 20:00: 0.9985
2025-06-15 01:00: 0.0015
2025-06-15 05:00: 0.9985
2025-06-15 10:00: 0.0015
2025-06-15 14:00: 0.9985
2025-06-15 19:00: 0.0015
2025-06-15 23:00: 0.9985
2025-06-16 04:00: 0.0015
2025-06-16 08:00: 0.9985
2025-06-16 13:00: 0.0015
2025-06-16 17:00: 0.9985
2025-06-16 22:00: 0.0005
2025-06-17 02:00: 0.9995
2025-06-17 07:00: 0.0005
2025-06-17 11:00: 0.9995
2025-06-17 16:00: 0.0005
2025-06-17 20:00: 0.9995
2025-06-18 01:00: 0.0005
2025-06-18 05:00: 0.9995
2025-06-18 10:00: 0.0005
2025-06-18 14:00: 0.9995
Trade Summary: Total trades: 470514, Buy volume: 202839368.72, Sell volume: 34450853.96, Average price: 0.9173, Price range: 0.0010 - 0.9990
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike, wash_trading

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 516797
Question: Will Adrienne Adams win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City?
Volume: 2365088.492362
Price History:
2025-06-19 05:00: 0.0005
2025-06-19 09:00: 0.9995
2025-06-19 14:00: 0.0005
2025-06-19 18:00: 0.9995
2025-06-19 23:00: 0.0005
2025-06-20 03:00: 0.9995
2025-06-20 08:00: 0.0005
2025-06-20 12:00: 0.9995
2025-06-20 17:00: 0.0005
2025-06-20 21:00: 0.9995
2025-06-21 02:00: 0.0005
2025-06-21 06:00: 0.9995
2025-06-21 11:00: 0.0005
2025-06-21 15:00: 0.9995
2025-06-21 20:00: 0.0005
2025-06-22 00:00: 0.9995
2025-06-22 05:00: 0.0005
2025-06-22 09:00: 0.9995
2025-06-22 14:00: 0.0005
2025-06-22 18:00: 0.9995
2025-06-22 23:00: 0.0005
2025-06-23 03:00: 0.9995
2025-06-23 08:00: 0.0005
2025-06-23 12:00: 0.9995
2025-06-23 17:00: 0.0005
2025-06-23 21:00: 0.9995
2025-06-24 02:00: 0.0005
2025-06-24 06:00: 0.9995
2025-06-24 11:00: 0.0005
2025-06-24 15:00: 0.9995
Trade Summary: Total trades: 16, Buy volume: 15000.00, Sell volume: 1971.99, Average price: 0.4376, Price range: 0.0010 - 0.9990
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 554574
Question: Will Brad Lander’s vote share be between 9% and 12% in the first round of the NYC Democratic mayoral primary?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 23180.282056
Price History:
2025-06-20 20:00: 0.2450
2025-06-20 21:00: 0.2450
2025-06-20 22:00: 0.2500
2025-06-20 23:00: 0.1950
2025-06-21 00:00: 0.1950
2025-06-21 01:00: 0.1950
2025-06-21 02:00: 0.1950
2025-06-21 03:00: 0.2000
2025-06-21 04:00: 0.2000
2025-06-21 05:00: 0.2000
2025-06-21 06:00: 0.2000
2025-06-21 07:00: 0.1950
2025-06-21 08:00: 0.1950
2025-06-21 09:00: 0.2000
2025-06-21 10:00: 0.2000
2025-06-21 11:00: 0.2000
2025-06-21 12:00: 0.2000
2025-06-21 13:00: 0.2000
2025-06-21 14:00: 0.2000
2025-06-21 15:00: 0.2000
2025-06-21 16:00: 0.2000
2025-06-21 17:00: 0.2000
2025-06-21 18:00: 0.2000
2025-06-21 19:00: 0.2000
2025-06-21 20:00: 0.2000
2025-06-21 21:00: 0.2000
2025-06-21 22:00: 0.2000
2025-06-21 23:00: 0.2000
2025-06-22 00:00: 0.2000
2025-06-22 01:00: 0.2000
2025-06-22 02:00: 0.2000
2025-06-22 03:00: 0.2000
2025-06-22 04:00: 0.2000
2025-06-22 05:00: 0.2000
2025-06-22 06:00: 0.2000
2025-06-22 07:00: 0.2000
2025-06-22 08:00: 0.2000
2025-06-22 09:00: 0.2000
2025-06-22 10:00: 0.2000
2025-06-22 11:00: 0.2000
2025-06-22 12:00: 0.2000
2025-06-22 13:00: 0.2000
2025-06-22 14:00: 0.2000
2025-06-22 15:00: 0.2000
2025-06-22 16:00: 0.2000
2025-06-22 17:00: 0.2000
2025-06-22 18:00: 0.2000
2025-06-22 19:00: 0.2000
2025-06-22 20:00: 0.2000
2025-06-22 21:00: 0.2000
Trade Summary: Total trades: 2, Buy volume: 106.00, Sell volume: 0.00, Average price: 0.5100, Price range: 0.2100 - 0.8100

Output: No


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 554574
Question: Will Brad Lander’s vote share be between 9% and 12% in the first round of the NYC Democratic mayoral primary?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 23180.282056
Price History:
2025-06-23 07:00: 0.7650
2025-06-23 08:00: 0.7650
2025-06-23 09:00: 0.7650
2025-06-23 10:00: 0.6700
2025-06-23 11:00: 0.6650
2025-06-23 12:00: 0.6700
2025-06-23 13:00: 0.6900
2025-06-23 14:00: 0.6850
2025-06-23 15:00: 0.6850
2025-06-23 16:00: 0.7200
2025-06-23 17:00: 0.7000
2025-06-23 18:00: 0.6850
2025-06-23 19:00: 0.6950
2025-06-23 20:00: 0.7000
2025-06-23 21:00: 0.7050
2025-06-23 22:00: 0.7050
2025-06-23 23:00: 0.7000
2025-06-24 00:00: 0.6950
2025-06-24 01:00: 0.7050
2025-06-24 02:00: 0.7050
2025-06-24 03:00: 0.7050
2025-06-24 04:00: 0.6950
2025-06-24 05:00: 0.7000
2025-06-24 06:00: 0.6950
2025-06-24 07:00: 0.6850
2025-06-24 08:00: 0.6850
2025-06-24 09:00: 0.6850
2025-06-24 10:00: 0.6850
2025-06-24 11:00: 0.6900
2025-06-24 12:00: 0.6850
2025-06-24 13:00: 0.6650
2025-06-24 14:00: 0.6600
2025-06-24 15:00: 0.6600
2025-06-24 16:00: 0.6600
2025-06-24 17:00: 0.6600
2025-06-24 18:00: 0.6600
2025-06-24 19:00: 0.6450
2025-06-24 20:00: 0.5700
2025-06-24 21:00: 0.5700
2025-06-24 22:00: 0.4000
2025-06-24 23:00: 0.4700
2025-06-25 00:00: 0.4450
2025-06-25 01:00: 0.4450
2025-06-25 02:00: 0.4450
2025-06-25 03:00: 0.4550
2025-06-25 04:00: 0.4550
2025-06-25 05:00: 0.4250
2025-06-25 06:00: 0.3950
2025-06-25 07:00: 0.0550
2025-06-25 08:00: 0.0500
Trade Summary: Total trades: 45, Buy volume: 1018.90, Sell volume: 313.08, Average price: 0.6324, Price range: 0.0900 - 0.9600

Output: No


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 554574
Question: Will Brad Lander’s vote share be between 9% and 12% in the first round of the NYC Democratic mayoral primary?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 23180.282056
Price History:
2025-06-25 19:00: 0.9400
2025-06-25 20:00: 0.9300
2025-06-25 21:00: 0.9350
2025-06-25 22:00: 0.9300
2025-06-25 23:00: 0.9300
2025-06-26 00:00: 0.9300
2025-06-26 01:00: 0.9300
2025-06-26 02:00: 0.9300
2025-06-26 03:00: 0.9300
2025-06-26 04:00: 0.9300
2025-06-26 05:00: 0.9300
2025-06-26 06:00: 0.9300
2025-06-26 07:00: 0.9300
2025-06-26 08:00: 0.9300
2025-06-26 09:00: 0.9300
2025-06-26 10:00: 0.9300
2025-06-26 11:00: 0.9300
2025-06-26 12:00: 0.9350
2025-06-26 13:00: 0.9300
2025-06-26 14:00: 0.9300
2025-06-26 15:00: 0.9300
2025-06-26 16:00: 0.9300
2025-06-26 17:00: 0.9300
2025-06-26 18:00: 0.9300
2025-06-26 19:00: 0.9350
2025-06-26 20:00: 0.9300
2025-06-26 21:00: 0.9300
2025-06-26 22:00: 0.9350
2025-06-26 23:00: 0.9300
2025-06-27 00:00: 0.9350
2025-06-27 01:00: 0.9300
2025-06-27 02:00: 0.9300
2025-06-27 03:00: 0.9300
2025-06-27 04:00: 0.9250
2025-06-27 05:00: 0.9350
2025-06-27 06:00: 0.9350
2025-06-27 07:00: 0.9350
2025-06-27 08:00: 0.9300
2025-06-27 09:00: 0.9250
2025-06-27 10:00: 0.9350
2025-06-27 11:00: 0.9250
2025-06-27 12:00: 0.9300
2025-06-27 13:00: 0.9300
2025-06-27 14:00: 0.9300
2025-06-27 15:00: 0.9350
2025-06-27 16:00: 0.9350
2025-06-27 17:00: 0.9300
2025-06-27 18:00: 0.9300
2025-06-27 19:00: 0.9300
2025-06-27 20:00: 0.9300
Trade Summary: Total trades: 81, Buy volume: 409.86, Sell volume: 258.09, Average price: 0.1151, Price range: 0.0500 - 0.9500

Output: No


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 554574
Question: Will Brad Lander’s vote share be between 9% and 12% in the first round of the NYC Democratic mayoral primary?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 23180.282056
Price History:
2025-06-28 06:00: 0.0700
2025-06-28 07:00: 0.0700
2025-06-28 08:00: 0.0750
2025-06-28 09:00: 0.0750
2025-06-28 10:00: 0.0750
2025-06-28 11:00: 0.0650
2025-06-28 12:00: 0.0700
2025-06-28 13:00: 0.0650
2025-06-28 14:00: 0.0650
2025-06-28 15:00: 0.0650
2025-06-28 16:00: 0.0650
2025-06-28 17:00: 0.0650
2025-06-28 18:00: 0.0650
2025-06-28 19:00: 0.0650
2025-06-28 20:00: 0.0650
2025-06-28 21:00: 0.0650
2025-06-28 22:00: 0.0650
2025-06-28 23:00: 0.0650
2025-06-29 00:00: 0.0650
2025-06-29 01:00: 0.0650
2025-06-29 02:00: 0.0650
2025-06-29 03:00: 0.0650
2025-06-29 04:00: 0.0650
2025-06-29 05:00: 0.0650
2025-06-29 06:00: 0.0650
2025-06-29 07:00: 0.0650
2025-06-29 08:00: 0.0650
2025-06-29 09:00: 0.0650
2025-06-29 10:00: 0.0650
2025-06-29 11:00: 0.0600
2025-06-29 12:00: 0.0600
2025-06-29 13:00: 0.0600
2025-06-29 14:00: 0.0650
2025-06-29 15:00: 0.0500
2025-06-29 16:00: 0.0600
2025-06-29 17:00: 0.0650
2025-06-29 18:00: 0.0650
2025-06-29 19:00: 0.0650
2025-06-29 20:00: 0.0650
2025-06-29 21:00: 0.0650
2025-06-29 22:00: 0.0650
2025-06-29 23:00: 0.0650
2025-06-30 00:00: 0.0650
2025-06-30 01:00: 0.0650
2025-06-30 02:00: 0.0650
2025-06-30 03:00: 0.0650
2025-06-30 04:00: 0.0650
2025-06-30 05:00: 0.0650
2025-06-30 06:00: 0.4150
2025-06-30 07:00: 0.2900
Trade Summary: Total trades: 4, Buy volume: 196.87, Sell volume: 0.00, Average price: 0.9500, Price range: 0.9500 - 0.9500

Output: No


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 554574
Question: Will Brad Lander’s vote share be between 9% and 12% in the first round of the NYC Democratic mayoral primary?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 23180.282056
Price History:
2025-06-30 18:00: 0.8300
2025-06-30 19:00: 0.8100
2025-06-30 20:00: 0.8150
2025-06-30 21:00: 0.7950
2025-06-30 22:00: 0.8150
2025-06-30 23:00: 0.8100
2025-07-01 00:00: 0.4800
2025-07-01 01:00: 0.5500
2025-07-01 02:00: 0.5800
2025-07-01 03:00: 0.5350
2025-07-01 04:00: 0.4950
2025-07-01 05:00: 0.5600
2025-07-01 06:00: 0.5400
2025-07-01 07:00: 0.8050
2025-07-01 08:00: 0.5600
2025-07-01 09:00: 0.5450
2025-07-01 10:00: 0.5400
2025-07-01 11:00: 0.5900
2025-07-01 12:00: 0.5800
2025-07-01 13:00: 0.5750
2025-07-01 14:00: 0.5350
2025-07-01 15:00: 0.8350
2025-07-01 16:00: 0.8300
2025-07-01 17:00: 0.8300
2025-07-01 18:00: 0.5250
2025-07-01 19:00: 0.5100
2025-07-01 20:00: 0.5250
2025-07-01 21:00: 0.5100
2025-07-01 22:00: 0.5500
2025-07-01 23:00: 0.4600
2025-07-02 00:00: 0.4600
2025-07-02 01:00: 0.4600
2025-07-02 02:00: 0.4600
2025-07-02 03:00: 0.5650
2025-07-02 04:00: 0.5650
2025-07-02 05:00: 0.5700
2025-07-02 06:00: 0.5600
2025-07-02 07:00: 0.5600
2025-07-02 08:00: 0.5600
2025-07-02 09:00: 0.5650
2025-07-02 10:00: 0.5550
2025-07-02 11:00: 0.5500
2025-07-02 12:00: 0.5600
2025-07-02 13:00: 0.6200
2025-07-02 14:00: 0.6400
2025-07-02 15:00: 0.6150
2025-07-02 16:00: 0.5550
2025-07-02 17:00: 0.5750
2025-07-02 18:00: 0.5800
2025-07-02 19:00: 0.5800
Trade Summary: Total trades: 28, Buy volume: 1498.39, Sell volume: 491.73, Average price: 0.4602, Price range: 0.0700 - 0.9300

Output: No


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 554574
Question: Will Brad Lander’s vote share be between 9% and 12% in the first round of the NYC Democratic mayoral primary?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 23180.282056
Price History:
2025-07-03 05:00: 0.4350
2025-07-03 06:00: 0.4250
2025-07-03 07:00: 0.4250
2025-07-03 08:00: 0.4500
2025-07-03 09:00: 0.4500
2025-07-03 10:00: 0.4500
2025-07-03 11:00: 0.4350
2025-07-03 12:00: 0.4250
2025-07-03 13:00: 0.4400
2025-07-03 14:00: 0.4350
2025-07-03 15:00: 0.4250
2025-07-03 16:00: 0.4400
2025-07-03 17:00: 0.4350
2025-07-03 18:00: 0.4250
2025-07-03 19:00: 0.4400
2025-07-03 20:00: 0.4450
2025-07-03 21:00: 0.4300
2025-07-03 22:00: 0.4450
2025-07-03 23:00: 0.4350
2025-07-04 00:00: 0.4450
2025-07-04 01:00: 0.4500
2025-07-04 02:00: 0.4300
2025-07-04 03:00: 0.4500
2025-07-04 04:00: 0.4250
2025-07-04 05:00: 0.4300
2025-07-04 06:00: 0.4450
2025-07-04 07:00: 0.7750
2025-07-04 08:00: 0.4000
2025-07-04 09:00: 0.4000
2025-07-04 10:00: 0.4000
2025-07-04 11:00: 0.4000
2025-07-04 12:00: 0.4000
2025-07-04 13:00: 0.4000
2025-07-04 14:00: 0.4000
2025-07-04 15:00: 0.3500
2025-07-04 16:00: 0.3900
2025-07-04 17:00: 0.3900
2025-07-04 18:00: 0.3900
2025-07-04 19:00: 0.3950
2025-07-04 20:00: 0.3900
2025-07-04 21:00: 0.3900
2025-07-04 22:00: 0.3900
2025-07-04 23:00: 0.3900
2025-07-05 00:00: 0.3900
2025-07-05 01:00: 0.4850
2025-07-05 02:00: 0.3900
2025-07-05 03:00: 0.3900
2025-07-05 04:00: 0.3900
2025-07-05 05:00: 0.3900
2025-07-05 06:00: 0.3900
Trade Summary: Total trades: 66, Buy volume: 6073.99, Sell volume: 207.77, Average price: 0.4470, Price range: 0.2000 - 0.9000

Output: No


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 554574
Question: Will Brad Lander’s vote share be between 9% and 12% in the first round of the NYC Democratic mayoral primary?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 23180.282056
Price History:
2025-07-05 17:00: 0.3650
2025-07-05 18:00: 0.6000
2025-07-05 19:00: 0.5550
2025-07-05 20:00: 0.6000
2025-07-05 21:00: 0.6000
2025-07-05 22:00: 0.6000
2025-07-05 23:00: 0.6000
2025-07-06 00:00: 0.6000
2025-07-06 01:00: 0.6000
2025-07-06 02:00: 0.6000
2025-07-06 03:00: 0.6000
2025-07-06 04:00: 0.6000
2025-07-06 05:00: 0.6000
2025-07-06 06:00: 0.6000
2025-07-06 07:00: 0.6000
2025-07-06 08:00: 0.6000
2025-07-06 09:00: 0.6000
2025-07-06 10:00: 0.6000
2025-07-06 11:00: 0.6000
2025-07-06 12:00: 0.6000
2025-07-06 13:00: 0.6000
2025-07-06 14:00: 0.6000
2025-07-06 15:00: 0.6000
2025-07-06 16:00: 0.6050
2025-07-06 17:00: 0.5950
2025-07-06 18:00: 0.6050
2025-07-06 19:00: 0.6000
2025-07-06 20:00: 0.6000
2025-07-06 21:00: 0.6000
2025-07-06 22:00: 0.6000
2025-07-06 23:00: 0.6000
2025-07-07 00:00: 0.6000
2025-07-07 01:00: 0.6000
2025-07-07 02:00: 0.6000
2025-07-07 03:00: 0.6000
2025-07-07 04:00: 0.6000
2025-07-07 05:00: 0.6000
2025-07-07 06:00: 0.6000
2025-07-07 07:00: 0.5050
2025-07-07 08:00: 0.6000
2025-07-07 09:00: 0.6000
2025-07-07 10:00: 0.6000
2025-07-07 11:00: 0.6000
2025-07-07 12:00: 0.6000
2025-07-07 13:00: 0.6000
2025-07-07 14:00: 0.6000
2025-07-07 15:00: 0.6000
2025-07-07 16:00: 0.6000
2025-07-07 17:00: 0.6000
2025-07-07 18:00: 0.6000
Trade Summary: Total trades: 16, Buy volume: 2266.69, Sell volume: 0.00, Average price: 0.3491, Price range: 0.3000 - 0.6900

Output: No


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 554574
Question: Will Brad Lander’s vote share be between 9% and 12% in the first round of the NYC Democratic mayoral primary?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 23180.282056
Price History:
2025-07-08 04:00: 0.4000
2025-07-08 05:00: 0.4000
2025-07-08 06:00: 0.4000
2025-07-08 07:00: 0.4000
2025-07-08 08:00: 0.4400
2025-07-08 09:00: 0.4250
2025-07-08 10:00: 0.4400
2025-07-08 11:00: 0.4350
2025-07-08 12:00: 0.4400
2025-07-08 13:00: 0.4300
2025-07-08 14:00: 0.4300
2025-07-08 15:00: 0.4500
2025-07-08 16:00: 0.0400
2025-07-08 17:00: 0.4165
2025-07-08 18:00: 0.4010
2025-07-08 19:00: 0.4040
2025-07-08 20:00: 0.4120
2025-07-08 21:00: 0.4225
2025-07-08 22:00: 0.0085
2025-07-08 23:00: 0.0050
2025-07-09 00:00: 0.0055
2025-07-09 01:00: 0.0060
2025-07-09 02:00: 0.0045
2025-07-09 03:00: 0.0060
2025-07-09 04:00: 0.0065
2025-07-09 05:00: 0.0060
2025-07-09 06:00: 0.0045
2025-07-09 07:00: 0.0045
2025-07-09 08:00: 0.0060
2025-07-09 09:00: 0.0055
2025-07-09 10:00: 0.0055
2025-07-09 11:00: 0.0055
2025-07-09 12:00: 0.0045
2025-07-09 13:00: 0.0045
2025-07-09 14:00: 0.0045
2025-07-09 15:00: 0.0045
2025-07-09 16:00: 0.0045
2025-07-09 17:00: 0.0050
2025-07-09 18:00: 0.0050
2025-07-09 19:00: 0.0035
2025-07-09 20:00: 0.0030
2025-07-09 21:00: 0.0030
2025-07-09 22:00: 0.0030
2025-07-09 23:00: 0.0030
2025-07-10 00:00: 0.0030
2025-07-10 01:00: 0.0030
2025-07-10 02:00: 0.0030
2025-07-10 03:00: 0.0030
2025-07-10 04:00: 0.0030
2025-07-10 05:00: 0.0030
Trade Summary: Total trades: 5, Buy volume: 1453.45, Sell volume: 5.06, Average price: 0.7553, Price range: 0.0685 - 0.9970

Output: No


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 554574
Question: Will Brad Lander’s vote share be between 9% and 12% in the first round of the NYC Democratic mayoral primary?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 23180.282056
Price History:
2025-07-10 16:00: 0.9970
2025-07-10 17:00: 0.9970
2025-07-10 18:00: 0.9970
2025-07-10 19:00: 0.9970
2025-07-10 20:00: 0.9970
2025-07-10 21:00: 0.9970
2025-07-10 22:00: 0.9970
2025-07-10 23:00: 0.9970
2025-07-11 00:00: 0.9970
2025-07-11 01:00: 0.9970
2025-07-11 02:00: 0.9945
2025-07-11 03:00: 0.9950
2025-07-11 04:00: 0.9950
2025-07-11 05:00: 0.9950
2025-07-11 06:00: 0.9950
2025-07-11 07:00: 0.9955
2025-07-11 08:00: 0.9955
2025-07-11 09:00: 0.9955
2025-07-11 10:00: 0.9955
2025-07-11 11:00: 0.9955
2025-07-11 12:00: 0.9955
2025-07-11 13:00: 0.9955
2025-07-11 14:00: 0.9950
2025-07-11 15:00: 0.9960
2025-07-11 16:00: 0.9960
2025-07-11 17:00: 0.9960
2025-07-11 18:00: 0.9960
2025-07-11 19:00: 0.9965
2025-07-11 20:00: 0.9965
2025-07-11 21:00: 0.9965
2025-07-11 22:00: 0.9965
2025-07-11 23:00: 0.9965
2025-07-12 00:00: 0.9965
2025-07-12 01:00: 0.9965
2025-07-12 02:00: 0.9965
2025-07-12 03:00: 0.9965
2025-07-12 04:00: 0.9965
2025-07-12 05:00: 0.9965
2025-07-12 06:00: 0.9965
2025-07-12 07:00: 0.9965
2025-07-12 08:00: 0.9965
2025-07-12 09:00: 0.9965
2025-07-12 10:00: 0.9965
2025-07-12 11:00: 0.9960
2025-07-12 12:00: 0.9960
2025-07-12 13:00: 0.9960
2025-07-12 14:00: 0.9960
2025-07-12 15:00: 0.9960
2025-07-12 16:00: 0.9960
2025-07-12 17:00: 0.9955
Trade Summary: Total trades: 6, Buy volume: 372.84, Sell volume: 236.55, Average price: 0.6650, Price range: 0.0054 - 0.9980

Output: No


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 554574
Question: Will Brad Lander’s vote share be between 9% and 12% in the first round of the NYC Democratic mayoral primary?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 23180.282056
Price History:
2025-07-13 03:00: 0.0045
2025-07-13 04:00: 0.0070
2025-07-13 05:00: 0.0090
2025-07-13 06:00: 0.0185
2025-07-13 07:00: 0.4515
2025-07-13 08:00: 0.4520
2025-07-13 09:00: 0.0065
2025-07-13 10:00: 0.0050
2025-07-13 11:00: 0.0060
2025-07-13 12:00: 0.0060
2025-07-13 13:00: 0.0060
2025-07-13 14:00: 0.0055
2025-07-13 15:00: 0.0060
2025-07-13 16:00: 0.0055
2025-07-13 17:00: 0.0055
2025-07-13 18:00: 0.0065
2025-07-13 19:00: 0.0065
2025-07-13 20:00: 0.0075
2025-07-13 21:00: 0.0075
2025-07-13 22:00: 0.0075
2025-07-13 23:00: 0.0075
2025-07-14 00:00: 0.0075
2025-07-14 01:00: 0.0170
2025-07-14 02:00: 0.0155
2025-07-14 03:00: 0.0120
2025-07-14 04:00: 0.0155
2025-07-14 05:00: 0.0170
2025-07-14 06:00: 0.0170
2025-07-14 07:00: 0.0175
2025-07-14 08:00: 0.0170
2025-07-14 09:00: 0.0155
2025-07-14 10:00: 0.0075
2025-07-14 11:00: 0.0075
2025-07-14 12:00: 0.0075
2025-07-14 13:00: 0.0075
2025-07-14 14:00: 0.0075
2025-07-14 15:00: 0.0075
2025-07-14 16:00: 0.0145
2025-07-14 17:00: 0.0090
2025-07-14 18:00: 0.0090
2025-07-14 19:00: 0.0095
2025-07-14 20:00: 0.0115
2025-07-14 21:00: 0.0115
2025-07-14 22:00: 0.0115
2025-07-14 23:00: 0.0115
2025-07-15 00:00: 0.0115
2025-07-15 01:00: 0.0115
2025-07-15 02:00: 0.0115
2025-07-15 03:00: 0.0110
2025-07-15 04:00: 0.0110
Trade Summary: Total trades: 54, Buy volume: 4937.83, Sell volume: 1178.60, Average price: 0.7368, Price range: 0.0030 - 0.9980

Output: No


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 554574
Question: Will Brad Lander’s vote share be between 9% and 12% in the first round of the NYC Democratic mayoral primary?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 23180.282056
Price History:
2025-07-15 15:00: 0.9985
2025-07-15 16:00: 0.9990
2025-07-15 17:00: 0.9990
2025-07-15 18:00: 0.9990
2025-07-15 19:00: 0.9990
2025-07-15 20:00: 0.9990
2025-07-15 21:00: 0.9990
2025-07-15 22:00: 0.9990
2025-07-15 23:00: 0.9990
2025-07-16 00:00: 0.9990
2025-07-16 01:00: 0.9990
2025-07-16 02:00: 0.9990
2025-07-16 03:00: 0.9990
2025-07-16 04:00: 0.9990
2025-07-16 05:00: 0.9990
2025-07-16 06:00: 0.9990
2025-07-16 07:00: 0.9990
2025-07-16 08:00: 0.9990
2025-07-16 09:00: 0.9990
2025-07-16 10:00: 0.9990
2025-07-16 11:00: 0.9990
2025-07-16 12:00: 0.9990
2025-07-16 13:00: 0.9990
2025-07-16 14:00: 0.9990
2025-07-16 15:00: 0.9990
2025-07-16 16:00: 0.9990
2025-07-16 17:00: 0.9990
2025-07-16 18:00: 0.9990
2025-07-16 19:00: 0.9990
2025-07-16 20:00: 0.9990
2025-07-16 21:00: 0.9990
2025-07-16 22:00: 0.9990
2025-07-16 23:00: 0.9990
2025-07-17 00:00: 0.9990
2025-07-17 01:00: 0.9990
2025-07-17 02:00: 0.9990
2025-07-17 03:00: 0.9990
2025-07-17 04:00: 0.9990
2025-07-17 05:00: 0.9990
2025-07-17 06:00: 0.9990
2025-07-17 07:00: 0.9990
2025-07-17 08:00: 0.9990
2025-07-17 09:00: 0.9990
2025-07-17 10:00: 0.9990
2025-07-17 11:00: 0.9990
2025-07-17 12:00: 0.9990
2025-07-17 13:00: 0.9990
2025-07-17 14:00: 0.9990
2025-07-17 15:00: 0.9990
2025-07-17 16:00: 0.9990
Trade Summary: Total trades: 2, Buy volume: 0.00, Sell volume: 201.00, Average price: 0.4995, Price range: 0.0010 - 0.9980

Output: No


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 554574
Question: Will Brad Lander’s vote share be between 9% and 12% in the first round of the NYC Democratic mayoral primary?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 23180.282056
Price History:
2025-07-18 02:00: 0.0010
2025-07-18 03:00: 0.0010
2025-07-18 04:00: 0.0010
2025-07-18 05:00: 0.0010
2025-07-18 06:00: 0.0005
2025-07-18 07:00: 0.0005
2025-07-18 08:00: 0.0005
2025-07-18 09:00: 0.0005
2025-07-18 10:00: 0.0005
2025-07-18 11:00: 0.0005
2025-07-18 12:00: 0.0005
2025-07-18 13:00: 0.0005
2025-07-18 14:00: 0.0005
2025-07-18 15:00: 0.0005
2025-07-18 16:00: 0.0005
2025-07-18 17:00: 0.0005
2025-07-18 18:00: 0.0005
2025-07-18 19:00: 0.0005
2025-07-18 20:00: 0.0005
2025-07-18 21:00: 0.0005
2025-07-18 22:00: 0.0005
2025-07-18 23:00: 0.0005
2025-07-19 00:00: 0.0005
2025-07-19 01:00: 0.0005
2025-07-19 02:00: 0.0005
2025-07-19 03:00: 0.0005
2025-07-19 04:00: 0.0005
2025-07-19 05:00: 0.0005
2025-07-19 06:00: 0.0005
2025-07-19 07:00: 0.0005
2025-07-19 08:00: 0.0005
2025-07-19 09:00: 0.0005
2025-07-19 10:00: 0.0005
2025-07-19 11:00: 0.0005
2025-07-19 12:00: 0.0005
2025-07-19 13:00: 0.0005
2025-07-19 14:00: 0.0005
2025-07-19 15:00: 0.0005
2025-07-19 16:00: 0.0005
2025-07-19 17:00: 0.0005
2025-07-19 18:00: 0.0005
2025-07-19 19:00: 0.0005
2025-07-19 20:00: 0.0005
2025-07-19 21:00: 0.0005
2025-07-19 22:00: 0.0005
2025-07-19 23:00: 0.0005
2025-07-20 00:00: 0.0005
2025-07-20 01:00: 0.0005
2025-07-20 02:00: 0.0005
2025-07-20 03:00: 0.0005
Trade Summary: Total trades: 2, Buy volume: 0.00, Sell volume: 34.40, Average price: 0.9985, Price range: 0.9980 - 0.9990

Output: No


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 554574
Question: Will Brad Lander’s vote share be between 9% and 12% in the first round of the NYC Democratic mayoral primary?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 23180.282056
Price History:
2025-07-20 14:00: 0.9995
2025-07-20 15:00: 0.9995
2025-07-20 16:00: 0.9995
2025-07-20 17:00: 0.9995
2025-07-20 18:00: 0.9995
2025-07-20 19:00: 0.9995
2025-07-20 20:00: 0.9995
2025-07-20 21:00: 0.9995
2025-07-20 22:00: 0.9995
2025-07-20 23:00: 0.9995
2025-07-21 00:00: 0.9995
2025-07-21 01:00: 0.9995
2025-07-21 02:00: 0.9995
2025-07-21 03:00: 0.9995
2025-07-21 04:00: 0.9995
2025-07-21 05:00: 0.9995
2025-07-21 06:00: 0.9995
2025-07-21 07:00: 0.9995
2025-07-21 08:00: 0.9995
2025-07-21 09:00: 0.9995
2025-07-21 10:00: 0.9995
2025-07-21 11:00: 0.9995
2025-07-21 12:00: 0.9995
2025-07-21 13:00: 0.9995
2025-07-21 14:00: 0.9995
2025-07-21 15:00: 0.9995
2025-07-21 16:00: 0.9995
2025-07-21 17:00: 0.9995
2025-07-21 18:00: 0.9995
2025-07-21 19:00: 0.9995
2025-07-21 20:00: 0.9995
2025-07-21 21:00: 0.9995
2025-07-21 22:00: 0.9995
2025-07-21 23:00: 0.9995
2025-07-22 00:00: 0.9995
2025-07-22 01:00: 0.9995
2025-07-22 02:00: 0.9995
2025-07-22 03:00: 0.9995
2025-07-22 04:00: 0.9995
2025-07-22 05:00: 0.9995
2025-07-22 06:00: 0.9995
2025-07-22 07:00: 0.9995
2025-07-22 08:00: 0.9995
2025-07-22 09:00: 0.9995
2025-07-22 10:00: 0.9995
2025-07-22 11:00: 0.9995
2025-07-22 12:00: 0.9995
2025-07-22 13:00: 0.9995
2025-07-22 14:00: 0.9995
2025-07-22 15:00: 0.9995
Trade Summary: Total trades: 329, Buy volume: 20064.26, Sell volume: 3116.02, Average price: 0.4493, Price range: 0.0010 - 0.9990

Output: No


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 554574
Question: Will Brad Lander’s vote share be between 9% and 12% in the first round of the NYC Democratic mayoral primary?
Volume: 23180.282056
Price History:
2025-06-20 20:00: 0.2450
2025-06-20 21:00: 0.7550
2025-06-20 23:00: 0.1950
2025-06-21 00:00: 0.8050
2025-06-21 02:00: 0.1950
2025-06-21 03:00: 0.8000
2025-06-21 05:00: 0.2000
2025-06-21 06:00: 0.8000
2025-06-21 08:00: 0.1950
2025-06-21 09:00: 0.8000
2025-06-21 11:00: 0.2000
2025-06-21 12:00: 0.8000
2025-06-21 14:00: 0.2000
2025-06-21 15:00: 0.8000
2025-06-21 17:00: 0.2000
2025-06-21 18:00: 0.8000
2025-06-21 20:00: 0.2000
2025-06-21 21:00: 0.8000
2025-06-21 23:00: 0.2000
2025-06-22 00:00: 0.8000
2025-06-22 02:00: 0.2000
2025-06-22 03:00: 0.8000
2025-06-22 05:00: 0.2000
2025-06-22 06:00: 0.8000
2025-06-22 08:00: 0.2000
2025-06-22 09:00: 0.8000
2025-06-22 11:00: 0.2000
2025-06-22 12:00: 0.8000
2025-06-22 14:00: 0.2000
2025-06-22 15:00: 0.8000
Trade Summary: Total trades: 2, Buy volume: 106.00, Sell volume: 0.00, Average price: 0.5100, Price range: 0.2100 - 0.8100
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 554574
Question: Will Brad Lander’s vote share be between 9% and 12% in the first round of the NYC Democratic mayoral primary?
Volume: 23180.282056
Price History:
2025-06-23 07:00: 0.7650
2025-06-23 09:00: 0.2350
2025-06-23 10:00: 0.6700
2025-06-23 12:00: 0.3300
2025-06-23 13:00: 0.6900
2025-06-23 15:00: 0.3150
2025-06-23 16:00: 0.7200
2025-06-23 18:00: 0.3150
2025-06-23 19:00: 0.6950
2025-06-23 21:00: 0.2950
2025-06-23 22:00: 0.7050
2025-06-24 00:00: 0.3050
2025-06-24 01:00: 0.7050
2025-06-24 03:00: 0.2950
2025-06-24 04:00: 0.6950
2025-06-24 06:00: 0.3050
2025-06-24 07:00: 0.6850
2025-06-24 09:00: 0.3150
2025-06-24 10:00: 0.6850
2025-06-24 12:00: 0.3150
2025-06-24 13:00: 0.6650
2025-06-24 15:00: 0.3400
2025-06-24 16:00: 0.6600
2025-06-24 18:00: 0.3400
2025-06-24 19:00: 0.6450
2025-06-24 21:00: 0.4300
2025-06-24 22:00: 0.4000
2025-06-25 00:00: 0.5550
2025-06-25 01:00: 0.4450
2025-06-25 03:00: 0.5450
Trade Summary: Total trades: 45, Buy volume: 1018.90, Sell volume: 313.08, Average price: 0.6324, Price range: 0.0900 - 0.9600
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 554574
Question: Will Brad Lander’s vote share be between 9% and 12% in the first round of the NYC Democratic mayoral primary?
Volume: 23180.282056
Price History:
2025-06-25 19:00: 0.9400
2025-06-25 20:00: 0.0700
2025-06-25 22:00: 0.9300
2025-06-25 23:00: 0.0700
2025-06-26 01:00: 0.9300
2025-06-26 02:00: 0.0700
2025-06-26 04:00: 0.9300
2025-06-26 05:00: 0.0700
2025-06-26 07:00: 0.9300
2025-06-26 08:00: 0.0700
2025-06-26 10:00: 0.9300
2025-06-26 11:00: 0.0700
2025-06-26 13:00: 0.9300
2025-06-26 14:00: 0.0700
2025-06-26 16:00: 0.9300
2025-06-26 17:00: 0.0700
2025-06-26 19:00: 0.9350
2025-06-26 20:00: 0.0700
2025-06-26 22:00: 0.9350
2025-06-26 23:00: 0.0700
2025-06-27 01:00: 0.9300
2025-06-27 02:00: 0.0700
2025-06-27 04:00: 0.9250
2025-06-27 05:00: 0.0650
2025-06-27 07:00: 0.9350
2025-06-27 08:00: 0.0700
2025-06-27 10:00: 0.9350
2025-06-27 11:00: 0.0750
2025-06-27 13:00: 0.9300
2025-06-27 14:00: 0.0700
Trade Summary: Total trades: 81, Buy volume: 409.86, Sell volume: 258.09, Average price: 0.1151, Price range: 0.0500 - 0.9500
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 554574
Question: Will Brad Lander’s vote share be between 9% and 12% in the first round of the NYC Democratic mayoral primary?
Volume: 23180.282056
Price History:
2025-06-28 06:00: 0.0700
2025-06-28 08:00: 0.9250
2025-06-28 09:00: 0.0750
2025-06-28 11:00: 0.9350
2025-06-28 12:00: 0.0700
2025-06-28 14:00: 0.9350
2025-06-28 15:00: 0.0650
2025-06-28 17:00: 0.9350
2025-06-28 18:00: 0.0650
2025-06-28 20:00: 0.9350
2025-06-28 21:00: 0.0650
2025-06-28 23:00: 0.9350
2025-06-29 00:00: 0.0650
2025-06-29 02:00: 0.9350
2025-06-29 03:00: 0.0650
2025-06-29 05:00: 0.9350
2025-06-29 06:00: 0.0650
2025-06-29 08:00: 0.9350
2025-06-29 09:00: 0.0650
2025-06-29 11:00: 0.9400
2025-06-29 12:00: 0.0600
2025-06-29 14:00: 0.9350
2025-06-29 15:00: 0.0500
2025-06-29 17:00: 0.9350
2025-06-29 18:00: 0.0650
2025-06-29 20:00: 0.9350
2025-06-29 21:00: 0.0650
2025-06-29 23:00: 0.9350
2025-06-30 00:00: 0.0650
2025-06-30 02:00: 0.9350
Trade Summary: Total trades: 4, Buy volume: 196.87, Sell volume: 0.00, Average price: 0.9500, Price range: 0.9500 - 0.9500
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 554574
Question: Will Brad Lander’s vote share be between 9% and 12% in the first round of the NYC Democratic mayoral primary?
Volume: 23180.282056
Price History:
2025-06-30 18:00: 0.8300
2025-06-30 19:00: 0.1900
2025-06-30 21:00: 0.7950
2025-06-30 22:00: 0.1850
2025-07-01 00:00: 0.4800
2025-07-01 01:00: 0.4500
2025-07-01 03:00: 0.5350
2025-07-01 04:00: 0.5050
2025-07-01 06:00: 0.5400
2025-07-01 07:00: 0.1950
2025-07-01 09:00: 0.5450
2025-07-01 10:00: 0.4600
2025-07-01 12:00: 0.5800
2025-07-01 13:00: 0.4250
2025-07-01 15:00: 0.8350
2025-07-01 16:00: 0.1700
2025-07-01 18:00: 0.5250
2025-07-01 19:00: 0.4900
2025-07-01 21:00: 0.5100
2025-07-01 22:00: 0.4500
2025-07-02 00:00: 0.4600
2025-07-02 01:00: 0.5400
2025-07-02 03:00: 0.5650
2025-07-02 04:00: 0.4350
2025-07-02 06:00: 0.5600
2025-07-02 07:00: 0.4400
2025-07-02 09:00: 0.5650
2025-07-02 10:00: 0.4450
2025-07-02 12:00: 0.5600
2025-07-02 13:00: 0.3800
Trade Summary: Total trades: 28, Buy volume: 1498.39, Sell volume: 491.73, Average price: 0.4602, Price range: 0.0700 - 0.9300
Manipulation Indicators Detected: price_spike

Output: No


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 554574
Question: Will Brad Lander’s vote share be between 9% and 12% in the first round of the NYC Democratic mayoral primary?
Volume: 23180.282056
Price History:
2025-07-03 05:00: 0.4350
2025-07-03 07:00: 0.5750
2025-07-03 08:00: 0.4500
2025-07-03 10:00: 0.5500
2025-07-03 11:00: 0.4350
2025-07-03 13:00: 0.5600
2025-07-03 14:00: 0.4350
2025-07-03 16:00: 0.5600
2025-07-03 17:00: 0.4350
2025-07-03 19:00: 0.5600
2025-07-03 20:00: 0.4450
2025-07-03 22:00: 0.5550
2025-07-03 23:00: 0.4350
2025-07-04 01:00: 0.5500
2025-07-04 02:00: 0.4300
2025-07-04 04:00: 0.5750
2025-07-04 05:00: 0.4300
2025-07-04 07:00: 0.2250
2025-07-04 08:00: 0.4000
2025-07-04 10:00: 0.6000
2025-07-04 11:00: 0.4000
2025-07-04 13:00: 0.6000
2025-07-04 14:00: 0.4000
2025-07-04 16:00: 0.6100
2025-07-04 17:00: 0.3900
2025-07-04 19:00: 0.6050
2025-07-04 20:00: 0.3900
2025-07-04 22:00: 0.6100
2025-07-04 23:00: 0.3900
2025-07-05 01:00: 0.5150
Trade Summary: Total trades: 66, Buy volume: 6073.99, Sell volume: 207.77, Average price: 0.4470, Price range: 0.2000 - 0.9000
Manipulation Indicators Detected: price_spike, wash_trading

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 554574
Question: Will Brad Lander’s vote share be between 9% and 12% in the first round of the NYC Democratic mayoral primary?
Volume: 23180.282056
Price History:
2025-07-05 17:00: 0.3650
2025-07-05 18:00: 0.4000
2025-07-05 20:00: 0.6000
2025-07-05 21:00: 0.4000
2025-07-05 23:00: 0.6000
2025-07-06 00:00: 0.4000
2025-07-06 02:00: 0.6000
2025-07-06 03:00: 0.4000
2025-07-06 05:00: 0.6000
2025-07-06 06:00: 0.4000
2025-07-06 08:00: 0.6000
2025-07-06 09:00: 0.4000
2025-07-06 11:00: 0.6000
2025-07-06 12:00: 0.4000
2025-07-06 14:00: 0.6000
2025-07-06 15:00: 0.4000
2025-07-06 17:00: 0.5950
2025-07-06 18:00: 0.3950
2025-07-06 20:00: 0.6000
2025-07-06 21:00: 0.4000
2025-07-06 23:00: 0.6000
2025-07-07 00:00: 0.4000
2025-07-07 02:00: 0.6000
2025-07-07 03:00: 0.4000
2025-07-07 05:00: 0.6000
2025-07-07 06:00: 0.4000
2025-07-07 08:00: 0.6000
2025-07-07 09:00: 0.4000
2025-07-07 11:00: 0.6000
2025-07-07 12:00: 0.4000
Trade Summary: Total trades: 16, Buy volume: 2266.69, Sell volume: 0.00, Average price: 0.3491, Price range: 0.3000 - 0.6900
Manipulation Indicators Detected: None

Output: No


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 554574
Question: Will Brad Lander’s vote share be between 9% and 12% in the first round of the NYC Democratic mayoral primary?
Volume: 23180.282056
Price History:
2025-07-08 04:00: 0.4000
2025-07-08 06:00: 0.6000
2025-07-08 07:00: 0.4000
2025-07-08 09:00: 0.5750
2025-07-08 10:00: 0.4400
2025-07-08 12:00: 0.5600
2025-07-08 13:00: 0.4300
2025-07-08 15:00: 0.5500
2025-07-08 16:00: 0.0400
2025-07-08 18:00: 0.5990
2025-07-08 19:00: 0.4040
2025-07-08 21:00: 0.5775
2025-07-08 22:00: 0.0085
2025-07-09 00:00: 0.9945
2025-07-09 01:00: 0.0060
2025-07-09 03:00: 0.9940
2025-07-09 04:00: 0.0065
2025-07-09 06:00: 0.9955
2025-07-09 07:00: 0.0045
2025-07-09 09:00: 0.9945
2025-07-09 10:00: 0.0055
2025-07-09 12:00: 0.9955
2025-07-09 13:00: 0.0045
2025-07-09 15:00: 0.9955
2025-07-09 16:00: 0.0045
2025-07-09 18:00: 0.9950
2025-07-09 19:00: 0.0035
2025-07-09 21:00: 0.9970
2025-07-09 22:00: 0.0030
2025-07-10 00:00: 0.9970
Trade Summary: Total trades: 5, Buy volume: 1453.45, Sell volume: 5.06, Average price: 0.7553, Price range: 0.0685 - 0.9970
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 554574
Question: Will Brad Lander’s vote share be between 9% and 12% in the first round of the NYC Democratic mayoral primary?
Volume: 23180.282056
Price History:
2025-07-10 16:00: 0.9970
2025-07-10 17:00: 0.0030
2025-07-10 19:00: 0.9970
2025-07-10 20:00: 0.0030
2025-07-10 22:00: 0.9970
2025-07-10 23:00: 0.0030
2025-07-11 01:00: 0.9970
2025-07-11 02:00: 0.0055
2025-07-11 04:00: 0.9950
2025-07-11 05:00: 0.0050
2025-07-11 07:00: 0.9955
2025-07-11 08:00: 0.0045
2025-07-11 10:00: 0.9955
2025-07-11 11:00: 0.0045
2025-07-11 13:00: 0.9955
2025-07-11 14:00: 0.0050
2025-07-11 16:00: 0.9960
2025-07-11 17:00: 0.0040
2025-07-11 19:00: 0.9965
2025-07-11 20:00: 0.0035
2025-07-11 22:00: 0.9965
2025-07-11 23:00: 0.0035
2025-07-12 01:00: 0.9965
2025-07-12 02:00: 0.0035
2025-07-12 04:00: 0.9965
2025-07-12 05:00: 0.0035
2025-07-12 07:00: 0.9965
2025-07-12 08:00: 0.0035
2025-07-12 10:00: 0.9965
2025-07-12 11:00: 0.0040
Trade Summary: Total trades: 6, Buy volume: 372.84, Sell volume: 236.55, Average price: 0.6650, Price range: 0.0054 - 0.9980
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 554574
Question: Will Brad Lander’s vote share be between 9% and 12% in the first round of the NYC Democratic mayoral primary?
Volume: 23180.282056
Price History:
2025-07-13 03:00: 0.0045
2025-07-13 05:00: 0.9910
2025-07-13 06:00: 0.0185
2025-07-13 08:00: 0.5480
2025-07-13 09:00: 0.0065
2025-07-13 11:00: 0.9940
2025-07-13 12:00: 0.0060
2025-07-13 14:00: 0.9945
2025-07-13 15:00: 0.0060
2025-07-13 17:00: 0.9945
2025-07-13 18:00: 0.0065
2025-07-13 20:00: 0.9925
2025-07-13 21:00: 0.0075
2025-07-13 23:00: 0.9925
2025-07-14 00:00: 0.0075
2025-07-14 02:00: 0.9845
2025-07-14 03:00: 0.0120
2025-07-14 05:00: 0.9830
2025-07-14 06:00: 0.0170
2025-07-14 08:00: 0.9830
2025-07-14 09:00: 0.0155
2025-07-14 11:00: 0.9925
2025-07-14 12:00: 0.0075
2025-07-14 14:00: 0.9925
2025-07-14 15:00: 0.0075
2025-07-14 17:00: 0.9910
2025-07-14 18:00: 0.0090
2025-07-14 20:00: 0.9885
2025-07-14 21:00: 0.0115
2025-07-14 23:00: 0.9885
Trade Summary: Total trades: 54, Buy volume: 4937.83, Sell volume: 1178.60, Average price: 0.7368, Price range: 0.0030 - 0.9980
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike, wash_trading

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 554574
Question: Will Brad Lander’s vote share be between 9% and 12% in the first round of the NYC Democratic mayoral primary?
Volume: 23180.282056
Price History:
2025-07-15 15:00: 0.9985
2025-07-15 16:00: 0.0010
2025-07-15 18:00: 0.9990
2025-07-15 19:00: 0.0010
2025-07-15 21:00: 0.9990
2025-07-15 22:00: 0.0010
2025-07-16 00:00: 0.9990
2025-07-16 01:00: 0.0010
2025-07-16 03:00: 0.9990
2025-07-16 04:00: 0.0010
2025-07-16 06:00: 0.9990
2025-07-16 07:00: 0.0010
2025-07-16 09:00: 0.9990
2025-07-16 10:00: 0.0010
2025-07-16 12:00: 0.9990
2025-07-16 13:00: 0.0010
2025-07-16 15:00: 0.9990
2025-07-16 16:00: 0.0010
2025-07-16 18:00: 0.9990
2025-07-16 19:00: 0.0010
2025-07-16 21:00: 0.9990
2025-07-16 22:00: 0.0010
2025-07-17 00:00: 0.9990
2025-07-17 01:00: 0.0010
2025-07-17 03:00: 0.9990
2025-07-17 04:00: 0.0010
2025-07-17 06:00: 0.9990
2025-07-17 07:00: 0.0010
2025-07-17 09:00: 0.9990
2025-07-17 10:00: 0.0010
Trade Summary: Total trades: 2, Buy volume: 0.00, Sell volume: 201.00, Average price: 0.4995, Price range: 0.0010 - 0.9980
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 554574
Question: Will Brad Lander’s vote share be between 9% and 12% in the first round of the NYC Democratic mayoral primary?
Volume: 23180.282056
Price History:
2025-07-18 02:00: 0.0010
2025-07-18 04:00: 0.9990
2025-07-18 05:00: 0.0010
2025-07-18 07:00: 0.9995
2025-07-18 08:00: 0.0005
2025-07-18 10:00: 0.9995
2025-07-18 11:00: 0.0005
2025-07-18 13:00: 0.9995
2025-07-18 14:00: 0.0005
2025-07-18 16:00: 0.9995
2025-07-18 17:00: 0.0005
2025-07-18 19:00: 0.9995
2025-07-18 20:00: 0.0005
2025-07-18 22:00: 0.9995
2025-07-18 23:00: 0.0005
2025-07-19 01:00: 0.9995
2025-07-19 02:00: 0.0005
2025-07-19 04:00: 0.9995
2025-07-19 05:00: 0.0005
2025-07-19 07:00: 0.9995
2025-07-19 08:00: 0.0005
2025-07-19 10:00: 0.9995
2025-07-19 11:00: 0.0005
2025-07-19 13:00: 0.9995
2025-07-19 14:00: 0.0005
2025-07-19 16:00: 0.9995
2025-07-19 17:00: 0.0005
2025-07-19 19:00: 0.9995
2025-07-19 20:00: 0.0005
2025-07-19 22:00: 0.9995
Trade Summary: Total trades: 2, Buy volume: 0.00, Sell volume: 34.40, Average price: 0.9985, Price range: 0.9980 - 0.9990
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 554574
Question: Will Brad Lander’s vote share be between 9% and 12% in the first round of the NYC Democratic mayoral primary?
Volume: 23180.282056
Price History:
2025-07-20 14:00: 0.9995
2025-07-20 15:00: 0.0005
2025-07-20 17:00: 0.9995
2025-07-20 18:00: 0.0005
2025-07-20 20:00: 0.9995
2025-07-20 21:00: 0.0005
2025-07-20 23:00: 0.9995
2025-07-21 00:00: 0.0005
2025-07-21 02:00: 0.9995
2025-07-21 03:00: 0.0005
2025-07-21 05:00: 0.9995
2025-07-21 06:00: 0.0005
2025-07-21 08:00: 0.9995
2025-07-21 09:00: 0.0005
2025-07-21 11:00: 0.9995
2025-07-21 12:00: 0.0005
2025-07-21 14:00: 0.9995
2025-07-21 15:00: 0.0005
2025-07-21 17:00: 0.9995
2025-07-21 18:00: 0.0005
2025-07-21 20:00: 0.9995
2025-07-21 21:00: 0.0005
2025-07-21 23:00: 0.9995
2025-07-22 00:00: 0.0005
2025-07-22 02:00: 0.9995
2025-07-22 03:00: 0.0005
2025-07-22 05:00: 0.9995
2025-07-22 06:00: 0.0005
2025-07-22 08:00: 0.9995
2025-07-22 09:00: 0.0005
Trade Summary: Total trades: 329, Buy volume: 20064.26, Sell volume: 3116.02, Average price: 0.4493, Price range: 0.0010 - 0.9990
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike, wash_trading

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 554572
Question: Will Brad Lander’s vote share be less than 6% in the first round of the NYC Democratic mayoral primary?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 3342.047711
Price History:
2025-06-20 20:00: 0.2450
2025-06-20 21:00: 0.2450
2025-06-20 22:00: 0.2500
2025-06-20 23:00: 0.2500
2025-06-21 00:00: 0.2500
2025-06-21 01:00: 0.2550
2025-06-21 02:00: 0.1600
2025-06-21 03:00: 0.1600
2025-06-21 04:00: 0.1600
2025-06-21 05:00: 0.1600
2025-06-21 06:00: 0.1950
2025-06-21 07:00: 0.1750
2025-06-21 08:00: 0.1750
2025-06-21 09:00: 0.1750
2025-06-21 10:00: 0.1750
2025-06-21 11:00: 0.1800
2025-06-21 12:00: 0.1750
2025-06-21 13:00: 0.1800
2025-06-21 14:00: 0.1800
2025-06-21 15:00: 0.1700
2025-06-21 16:00: 0.1700
2025-06-21 17:00: 0.1700
2025-06-21 18:00: 0.1550
2025-06-21 19:00: 0.1550
2025-06-21 20:00: 0.1550
2025-06-21 21:00: 0.1550
2025-06-21 22:00: 0.1550
2025-06-21 23:00: 0.1550
2025-06-22 00:00: 0.1550
2025-06-22 01:00: 0.1550
2025-06-22 02:00: 0.1550
2025-06-22 03:00: 0.1500
2025-06-22 04:00: 0.1500
2025-06-22 05:00: 0.1500
2025-06-22 06:00: 0.1500
2025-06-22 07:00: 0.1500
2025-06-22 08:00: 0.1500
2025-06-22 09:00: 0.1500
2025-06-22 10:00: 0.1500
2025-06-22 11:00: 0.1500
2025-06-22 12:00: 0.1500
2025-06-22 13:00: 0.1450
2025-06-22 14:00: 0.1500
2025-06-22 15:00: 0.1500
2025-06-22 16:00: 0.1500
2025-06-22 17:00: 0.1500
2025-06-22 18:00: 0.1500
2025-06-22 19:00: 0.1450
2025-06-22 20:00: 0.1450
2025-06-22 21:00: 0.1450
Trade Summary: Total trades: 12, Buy volume: 365.60, Sell volume: 11.05, Average price: 0.6525, Price range: 0.1300 - 0.9800

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 554572
Question: Will Brad Lander’s vote share be less than 6% in the first round of the NYC Democratic mayoral primary?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 3342.047711
Price History:
2025-06-23 07:00: 0.9400
2025-06-23 08:00: 0.9400
2025-06-23 09:00: 0.9450
2025-06-23 10:00: 0.9850
2025-06-23 11:00: 0.9440
2025-06-23 12:00: 0.9440
2025-06-23 13:00: 0.9435
2025-06-23 14:00: 0.9435
2025-06-23 15:00: 0.9820
2025-06-23 16:00: 0.9930
2025-06-23 17:00: 0.9930
2025-06-23 18:00: 0.9895
2025-06-23 19:00: 0.9495
2025-06-23 20:00: 0.9400
2025-06-23 21:00: 0.9350
2025-06-23 22:00: 0.9310
2025-06-23 23:00: 0.9330
2025-06-24 00:00: 0.9495
2025-06-24 01:00: 0.9445
2025-06-24 02:00: 0.9440
2025-06-24 03:00: 0.9440
2025-06-24 04:00: 0.9470
2025-06-24 05:00: 0.9460
2025-06-24 06:00: 0.9460
2025-06-24 07:00: 0.9460
2025-06-24 08:00: 0.9455
2025-06-24 09:00: 0.9475
2025-06-24 10:00: 0.9475
2025-06-24 11:00: 0.9470
2025-06-24 12:00: 0.9440
2025-06-24 13:00: 0.9510
2025-06-24 14:00: 0.9560
2025-06-24 15:00: 0.9470
2025-06-24 16:00: 0.9480
2025-06-24 17:00: 0.9610
2025-06-24 18:00: 0.9575
2025-06-24 19:00: 0.9600
2025-06-24 20:00: 0.9560
2025-06-24 21:00: 0.9470
2025-06-24 22:00: 0.9460
2025-06-24 23:00: 0.9430
2025-06-25 00:00: 0.9460
2025-06-25 01:00: 0.9460
2025-06-25 02:00: 0.9450
2025-06-25 03:00: 0.9460
2025-06-25 04:00: 0.9455
2025-06-25 05:00: 0.9460
2025-06-25 06:00: 0.9450
2025-06-25 07:00: 0.9665
2025-06-25 08:00: 0.9660
Trade Summary: Total trades: 27, Buy volume: 333.33, Sell volume: 68.44, Average price: 0.7698, Price range: 0.0010 - 0.9980

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 554572
Question: Will Brad Lander’s vote share be less than 6% in the first round of the NYC Democratic mayoral primary?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 3342.047711
Price History:
2025-06-25 19:00: 0.0295
2025-06-25 20:00: 0.0200
2025-06-25 21:00: 0.0205
2025-06-25 22:00: 0.0245
2025-06-25 23:00: 0.0330
2025-06-26 00:00: 0.0200
2025-06-26 01:00: 0.0320
2025-06-26 02:00: 0.0295
2025-06-26 03:00: 0.0260
2025-06-26 04:00: 0.0190
2025-06-26 05:00: 0.0190
2025-06-26 06:00: 0.0190
2025-06-26 07:00: 0.0320
2025-06-26 08:00: 0.0160
2025-06-26 09:00: 0.0160
2025-06-26 10:00: 0.0160
2025-06-26 11:00: 0.0160
2025-06-26 12:00: 0.0120
2025-06-26 13:00: 0.0160
2025-06-26 14:00: 0.0160
2025-06-26 15:00: 0.0135
2025-06-26 16:00: 0.0155
2025-06-26 17:00: 0.0060
2025-06-26 18:00: 0.0060
2025-06-26 19:00: 0.0060
2025-06-26 20:00: 0.0060
2025-06-26 21:00: 0.0060
2025-06-26 22:00: 0.0055
2025-06-26 23:00: 0.0060
2025-06-27 00:00: 0.0050
2025-06-27 01:00: 0.0060
2025-06-27 02:00: 0.0060
2025-06-27 03:00: 0.0060
2025-06-27 04:00: 0.0060
2025-06-27 05:00: 0.0065
2025-06-27 06:00: 0.0060
2025-06-27 07:00: 0.0065
2025-06-27 08:00: 0.0060
2025-06-27 09:00: 0.0060
2025-06-27 10:00: 0.0060
2025-06-27 11:00: 0.0060
2025-06-27 12:00: 0.0060
2025-06-27 13:00: 0.0060
2025-06-27 14:00: 0.0060
2025-06-27 15:00: 0.0060
2025-06-27 16:00: 0.0060
2025-06-27 17:00: 0.0060
2025-06-27 18:00: 0.0060
2025-06-27 19:00: 0.0060
2025-06-27 20:00: 0.0060
Trade Summary: Total trades: 15, Buy volume: 418.88, Sell volume: 156.48, Average price: 0.8626, Price range: 0.0020 - 0.9980

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 554572
Question: Will Brad Lander’s vote share be less than 6% in the first round of the NYC Democratic mayoral primary?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 3342.047711
Price History:
2025-06-28 06:00: 0.9940
2025-06-28 07:00: 0.9940
2025-06-28 08:00: 0.9940
2025-06-28 09:00: 0.9940
2025-06-28 10:00: 0.9940
2025-06-28 11:00: 0.9940
2025-06-28 12:00: 0.9940
2025-06-28 13:00: 0.9940
2025-06-28 14:00: 0.9940
2025-06-28 15:00: 0.9940
2025-06-28 16:00: 0.9940
2025-06-28 17:00: 0.9940
2025-06-28 18:00: 0.9940
2025-06-28 19:00: 0.9940
2025-06-28 20:00: 0.9940
2025-06-28 21:00: 0.9940
2025-06-28 22:00: 0.9940
2025-06-28 23:00: 0.9940
2025-06-29 00:00: 0.9940
2025-06-29 01:00: 0.9940
2025-06-29 02:00: 0.9940
2025-06-29 03:00: 0.9940
2025-06-29 04:00: 0.9940
2025-06-29 05:00: 0.9940
2025-06-29 06:00: 0.9940
2025-06-29 07:00: 0.9940
2025-06-29 08:00: 0.9965
2025-06-29 09:00: 0.9965
2025-06-29 10:00: 0.9965
2025-06-29 11:00: 0.9965
2025-06-29 12:00: 0.9965
2025-06-29 13:00: 0.9965
2025-06-29 14:00: 0.9970
2025-06-29 15:00: 0.9970
2025-06-29 16:00: 0.9970
2025-06-29 17:00: 0.9985
2025-06-29 18:00: 0.9985
2025-06-29 19:00: 0.9985
2025-06-29 20:00: 0.9985
2025-06-29 21:00: 0.9985
2025-06-29 22:00: 0.9985
2025-06-29 23:00: 0.9985
2025-06-30 00:00: 0.9985
2025-06-30 01:00: 0.9985
2025-06-30 02:00: 0.9985
2025-06-30 03:00: 0.9985
2025-06-30 04:00: 0.9985
2025-06-30 05:00: 0.9985
2025-06-30 06:00: 0.9985
2025-06-30 07:00: 0.9985
Trade Summary: Total trades: 16, Buy volume: 490.88, Sell volume: 54.08, Average price: 0.9982, Price range: 0.9950 - 0.9990

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 554572
Question: Will Brad Lander’s vote share be less than 6% in the first round of the NYC Democratic mayoral primary?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 3342.047711
Price History:
2025-06-30 18:00: 0.0030
2025-06-30 19:00: 0.0030
2025-06-30 20:00: 0.0030
2025-06-30 21:00: 0.0030
2025-06-30 22:00: 0.0030
2025-06-30 23:00: 0.0030
2025-07-01 00:00: 0.0030
2025-07-01 01:00: 0.0030
2025-07-01 02:00: 0.0030
2025-07-01 03:00: 0.0030
2025-07-01 04:00: 0.0030
2025-07-01 05:00: 0.0025
2025-07-01 06:00: 0.0015
2025-07-01 07:00: 0.0015
2025-07-01 08:00: 0.0015
2025-07-01 09:00: 0.0015
2025-07-01 10:00: 0.0015
2025-07-01 11:00: 0.0050
2025-07-01 12:00: 0.0015
2025-07-01 13:00: 0.0015
2025-07-01 14:00: 0.0015
2025-07-01 15:00: 0.0055
2025-07-01 16:00: 0.0055
2025-07-01 17:00: 0.0055
2025-07-01 18:00: 0.0055
2025-07-01 19:00: 0.0055
2025-07-01 20:00: 0.0055
2025-07-01 21:00: 0.0055
2025-07-01 22:00: 0.0055
2025-07-01 23:00: 0.0055
2025-07-02 00:00: 0.0055
2025-07-02 01:00: 0.0055
2025-07-02 02:00: 0.0055
2025-07-02 03:00: 0.0055
2025-07-02 04:00: 0.0055
2025-07-02 05:00: 0.0055
2025-07-02 06:00: 0.0055
2025-07-02 07:00: 0.0055
2025-07-02 08:00: 0.0055
2025-07-02 09:00: 0.0055
2025-07-02 10:00: 0.0045
2025-07-02 11:00: 0.0045
2025-07-02 12:00: 0.0045
2025-07-02 13:00: 0.0045
2025-07-02 14:00: 0.0045
2025-07-02 15:00: 0.0045
2025-07-02 16:00: 0.0045
2025-07-02 17:00: 0.0045
2025-07-02 18:00: 0.0045
2025-07-02 19:00: 0.0045
Trade Summary: Total trades: 6, Buy volume: 144.31, Sell volume: 0.00, Average price: 0.6693, Price range: 0.0100 - 0.9990

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 554572
Question: Will Brad Lander’s vote share be less than 6% in the first round of the NYC Democratic mayoral primary?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 3342.047711
Price History:
2025-07-03 05:00: 0.9955
2025-07-03 06:00: 0.9955
2025-07-03 07:00: 0.9955
2025-07-03 08:00: 0.9955
2025-07-03 09:00: 0.9955
2025-07-03 10:00: 0.9955
2025-07-03 11:00: 0.9955
2025-07-03 12:00: 0.9960
2025-07-03 13:00: 0.9955
2025-07-03 14:00: 0.9960
2025-07-03 15:00: 0.9960
2025-07-03 16:00: 0.9960
2025-07-03 17:00: 0.9960
2025-07-03 18:00: 0.9960
2025-07-03 19:00: 0.9960
2025-07-03 20:00: 0.9960
2025-07-03 21:00: 0.9960
2025-07-03 22:00: 0.9960
2025-07-03 23:00: 0.9960
2025-07-04 00:00: 0.9960
2025-07-04 01:00: 0.9960
2025-07-04 02:00: 0.9960
2025-07-04 03:00: 0.9960
2025-07-04 04:00: 0.9960
2025-07-04 05:00: 0.9960
2025-07-04 06:00: 0.9955
2025-07-04 07:00: 0.9955
2025-07-04 08:00: 0.9955
2025-07-04 09:00: 0.9955
2025-07-04 10:00: 0.9955
2025-07-04 11:00: 0.9955
2025-07-04 12:00: 0.9955
2025-07-04 13:00: 0.9960
2025-07-04 14:00: 0.9960
2025-07-04 15:00: 0.9960
2025-07-04 16:00: 0.9960
2025-07-04 17:00: 0.9960
2025-07-04 18:00: 0.9960
2025-07-04 19:00: 0.9960
2025-07-04 20:00: 0.9960
2025-07-04 21:00: 0.9960
2025-07-04 22:00: 0.9960
2025-07-04 23:00: 0.9960
2025-07-05 00:00: 0.9960
2025-07-05 01:00: 0.9960
2025-07-05 02:00: 0.9960
2025-07-05 03:00: 0.9960
2025-07-05 04:00: 0.9955
2025-07-05 05:00: 0.9955
2025-07-05 06:00: 0.9955
Trade Summary: Total trades: 53, Buy volume: 509.47, Sell volume: 27.78, Average price: 0.9800, Price range: 0.0010 - 0.9990

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 554572
Question: Will Brad Lander’s vote share be less than 6% in the first round of the NYC Democratic mayoral primary?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 3342.047711
Price History:
2025-07-05 17:00: 0.0040
2025-07-05 18:00: 0.0040
2025-07-05 19:00: 0.0040
2025-07-05 20:00: 0.0005
2025-07-05 21:00: 0.0005
2025-07-05 22:00: 0.0005
2025-07-05 23:00: 0.0005
2025-07-06 00:00: 0.0005
2025-07-06 01:00: 0.0005
2025-07-06 02:00: 0.0005
2025-07-06 03:00: 0.0005
2025-07-06 04:00: 0.0005
2025-07-06 05:00: 0.0005
2025-07-06 06:00: 0.0005
2025-07-06 07:00: 0.0005
2025-07-06 08:00: 0.0005
2025-07-06 09:00: 0.0005
2025-07-06 10:00: 0.0005
2025-07-06 11:00: 0.0005
2025-07-06 12:00: 0.0005
2025-07-06 13:00: 0.0005
2025-07-06 14:00: 0.0005
2025-07-06 15:00: 0.0005
2025-07-06 16:00: 0.0005
2025-07-06 17:00: 0.0005
2025-07-06 18:00: 0.0005
2025-07-06 19:00: 0.0005
2025-07-06 20:00: 0.0005
2025-07-06 21:00: 0.0005
2025-07-06 22:00: 0.0005
2025-07-06 23:00: 0.0005
2025-07-07 00:00: 0.0005
2025-07-07 01:00: 0.0005
2025-07-07 02:00: 0.0005
2025-07-07 03:00: 0.0005
2025-07-07 04:00: 0.0005
2025-07-07 05:00: 0.0005
2025-07-07 06:00: 0.0005
2025-07-07 07:00: 0.0005
2025-07-07 08:00: 0.0005
2025-07-07 09:00: 0.0005
2025-07-07 10:00: 0.0005
2025-07-07 11:00: 0.0005
2025-07-07 12:00: 0.0005
2025-07-07 13:00: 0.0005
2025-07-07 14:00: 0.0005
2025-07-07 15:00: 0.0005
2025-07-07 16:00: 0.0005
2025-07-07 17:00: 0.0005
2025-07-07 18:00: 0.0005
Trade Summary: Total trades: 155, Buy volume: 2987.22, Sell volume: 354.83, Average price: 0.8926, Price range: 0.0010 - 0.9990

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 554572
Question: Will Brad Lander’s vote share be less than 6% in the first round of the NYC Democratic mayoral primary?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 3342.047711
Price History:
2025-07-08 04:00: 0.9995
2025-07-08 05:00: 0.9995
2025-07-08 06:00: 0.9995
2025-07-08 07:00: 0.9995
2025-07-08 08:00: 0.9995
2025-07-08 09:00: 0.9960
2025-07-08 10:00: 0.9960
2025-07-08 11:00: 0.9960
2025-07-08 12:00: 0.9960
2025-07-08 13:00: 0.9960
2025-07-08 14:00: 0.9960
2025-07-08 15:00: 0.9960
2025-07-08 16:00: 0.9960
2025-07-08 17:00: 0.9960
2025-07-08 18:00: 0.9960
2025-07-08 19:00: 0.9960
2025-07-08 20:00: 0.9960
2025-07-08 21:00: 0.9960
2025-07-08 22:00: 0.9960
2025-07-08 23:00: 0.9960
2025-07-09 00:00: 0.9960
2025-07-09 01:00: 0.9960
2025-07-09 02:00: 0.9960
2025-07-09 03:00: 0.9960
2025-07-09 04:00: 0.9960
2025-07-09 05:00: 0.9960
2025-07-09 06:00: 0.9960
2025-07-09 07:00: 0.9960
2025-07-09 08:00: 0.9960
2025-07-09 09:00: 0.9960
2025-07-09 10:00: 0.9960
2025-07-09 11:00: 0.9960
2025-07-09 12:00: 0.9960
2025-07-09 13:00: 0.9960
2025-07-09 14:00: 0.9960
2025-07-09 15:00: 0.9960
2025-07-09 16:00: 0.9960
2025-07-09 17:00: 0.9960
2025-07-09 18:00: 0.9960
2025-07-09 19:00: 0.9960
2025-07-09 20:00: 0.9960
2025-07-09 21:00: 0.9960
2025-07-09 22:00: 0.9960
2025-07-09 23:00: 0.9960
2025-07-10 00:00: 0.9960
2025-07-10 01:00: 0.9960
2025-07-10 02:00: 0.9960
2025-07-10 03:00: 0.9960
2025-07-10 04:00: 0.9960
2025-07-10 05:00: 0.9965
Trade Summary: Total trades: 1, Buy volume: 474.75, Sell volume: 0.00, Average price: 0.0021, Price range: 0.0021 - 0.0021

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 554572
Question: Will Brad Lander’s vote share be less than 6% in the first round of the NYC Democratic mayoral primary?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 3342.047711
Price History:
2025-07-10 16:00: 0.0040
2025-07-10 17:00: 0.0040
2025-07-10 18:00: 0.0040
2025-07-10 19:00: 0.0040
2025-07-10 20:00: 0.0040
2025-07-10 21:00: 0.0040
2025-07-10 22:00: 0.0040
2025-07-10 23:00: 0.0040
2025-07-11 00:00: 0.0040
2025-07-11 01:00: 0.0040
2025-07-11 02:00: 0.0040
2025-07-11 03:00: 0.0040
2025-07-11 04:00: 0.0040
2025-07-11 05:00: 0.0040
2025-07-11 06:00: 0.0040
2025-07-11 07:00: 0.0040
2025-07-11 08:00: 0.0040
2025-07-11 09:00: 0.0040
2025-07-11 10:00: 0.0040
2025-07-11 11:00: 0.0040
2025-07-11 12:00: 0.0040
2025-07-11 13:00: 0.0040
2025-07-11 14:00: 0.0040
2025-07-11 15:00: 0.0040
2025-07-11 16:00: 0.0040
2025-07-11 17:00: 0.0040
2025-07-11 18:00: 0.0040
2025-07-11 19:00: 0.0040
2025-07-11 20:00: 0.0040
2025-07-11 21:00: 0.0040
2025-07-11 22:00: 0.0040
2025-07-11 23:00: 0.0040
2025-07-12 00:00: 0.0040
2025-07-12 01:00: 0.0040
2025-07-12 02:00: 0.0040
2025-07-12 03:00: 0.0040
2025-07-12 04:00: 0.0040
2025-07-12 05:00: 0.0040
2025-07-12 06:00: 0.0040
2025-07-12 07:00: 0.0040
2025-07-12 08:00: 0.0040
2025-07-12 09:00: 0.0040
2025-07-12 10:00: 0.0040
2025-07-12 11:00: 0.0040
2025-07-12 12:00: 0.0040
2025-07-12 13:00: 0.0040
2025-07-12 14:00: 0.0040
2025-07-12 15:00: 0.0040
2025-07-12 16:00: 0.0040
2025-07-12 17:00: 0.0040
Trade Summary: Total trades: 155, Buy volume: 2987.22, Sell volume: 354.83, Average price: 0.8926, Price range: 0.0010 - 0.9990

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 554572
Question: Will Brad Lander’s vote share be less than 6% in the first round of the NYC Democratic mayoral primary?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 3342.047711
Price History:
2025-07-13 03:00: 0.9960
2025-07-13 04:00: 0.9960
2025-07-13 05:00: 0.9960
2025-07-13 06:00: 0.9955
2025-07-13 07:00: 0.9955
2025-07-13 08:00: 0.9955
2025-07-13 09:00: 0.9955
2025-07-13 10:00: 0.9955
2025-07-13 11:00: 0.9955
2025-07-13 12:00: 0.9955
2025-07-13 13:00: 0.9955
2025-07-13 14:00: 0.9955
2025-07-13 15:00: 0.9955
2025-07-13 16:00: 0.9955
2025-07-13 17:00: 0.9955
2025-07-13 18:00: 0.9955
2025-07-13 19:00: 0.9955
2025-07-13 20:00: 0.9995
2025-07-13 21:00: 0.9995
2025-07-13 22:00: 0.9995
2025-07-13 23:00: 0.9995
2025-07-14 00:00: 0.9995
2025-07-14 01:00: 0.9995
2025-07-14 02:00: 0.9995
2025-07-14 03:00: 0.9995
2025-07-14 04:00: 0.9995
2025-07-14 05:00: 0.9995
2025-07-14 06:00: 0.9995
2025-07-14 07:00: 0.9995
2025-07-14 08:00: 0.9995
2025-07-14 09:00: 0.9995
2025-07-14 10:00: 0.9995
2025-07-14 11:00: 0.9995
2025-07-14 12:00: 0.9995
2025-07-14 13:00: 0.9995
2025-07-14 14:00: 0.9995
2025-07-14 15:00: 0.9995
2025-07-14 16:00: 0.9995
2025-07-14 17:00: 0.9995
2025-07-14 18:00: 0.9995
2025-07-14 19:00: 0.9995
2025-07-14 20:00: 0.9995
2025-07-14 21:00: 0.9995
2025-07-14 22:00: 0.9995
2025-07-14 23:00: 0.9995
2025-07-15 00:00: 0.9995
2025-07-15 01:00: 0.9995
2025-07-15 02:00: 0.9995
2025-07-15 03:00: 0.9995
2025-07-15 04:00: 0.9995
Trade Summary: Total trades: 1, Buy volume: 200.00, Sell volume: 0.00, Average price: 0.9990, Price range: 0.9990 - 0.9990

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 554572
Question: Will Brad Lander’s vote share be less than 6% in the first round of the NYC Democratic mayoral primary?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 3342.047711
Price History:
2025-07-15 15:00: 0.0005
2025-07-15 16:00: 0.0005
2025-07-15 17:00: 0.0005
2025-07-15 18:00: 0.0005
2025-07-15 19:00: 0.0005
2025-07-15 20:00: 0.0005
2025-07-15 21:00: 0.0005
2025-07-15 22:00: 0.0005
2025-07-15 23:00: 0.0005
2025-07-16 00:00: 0.0005
2025-07-16 01:00: 0.0005
2025-07-16 02:00: 0.0005
2025-07-16 03:00: 0.0005
2025-07-16 04:00: 0.0005
2025-07-16 05:00: 0.0005
2025-07-16 06:00: 0.0005
2025-07-16 07:00: 0.0005
2025-07-16 08:00: 0.0005
2025-07-16 09:00: 0.0005
2025-07-16 10:00: 0.0005
2025-07-16 11:00: 0.0005
2025-07-16 12:00: 0.0005
2025-07-16 13:00: 0.0005
2025-07-16 14:00: 0.0005
2025-07-16 15:00: 0.0005
2025-07-16 16:00: 0.0005
2025-07-16 17:00: 0.0005
2025-07-16 18:00: 0.0005
2025-07-16 19:00: 0.0005
2025-07-16 20:00: 0.0005
2025-07-16 21:00: 0.0005
2025-07-16 22:00: 0.0005
2025-07-16 23:00: 0.0005
2025-07-17 00:00: 0.0005
2025-07-17 01:00: 0.0005
2025-07-17 02:00: 0.0005
2025-07-17 03:00: 0.0005
2025-07-17 04:00: 0.0005
2025-07-17 05:00: 0.0005
2025-07-17 06:00: 0.0005
2025-07-17 07:00: 0.0005
2025-07-17 08:00: 0.0005
2025-07-17 09:00: 0.0005
2025-07-17 10:00: 0.0005
2025-07-17 11:00: 0.0005
2025-07-17 12:00: 0.0005
2025-07-17 13:00: 0.0005
2025-07-17 14:00: 0.0005
2025-07-17 15:00: 0.0005
2025-07-17 16:00: 0.0005
Trade Summary: Total trades: 155, Buy volume: 2987.22, Sell volume: 354.83, Average price: 0.8926, Price range: 0.0010 - 0.9990

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 554572
Question: Will Brad Lander’s vote share be less than 6% in the first round of the NYC Democratic mayoral primary?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 3342.047711
Price History:
2025-07-18 02:00: 0.9995
2025-07-18 03:00: 0.9995
2025-07-18 04:00: 0.9995
2025-07-18 05:00: 0.9995
2025-07-18 06:00: 0.9995
2025-07-18 07:00: 0.9995
2025-07-18 08:00: 0.9995
2025-07-18 09:00: 0.9995
2025-07-18 10:00: 0.9995
2025-07-18 11:00: 0.9995
2025-07-18 12:00: 0.9995
2025-07-18 13:00: 0.9995
2025-07-18 14:00: 0.9995
2025-07-18 15:00: 0.9995
2025-07-18 16:00: 0.9995
2025-07-18 17:00: 0.9995
2025-07-18 18:00: 0.9995
2025-07-18 19:00: 0.9995
2025-07-18 20:00: 0.9995
2025-07-18 21:00: 0.9995
2025-07-18 22:00: 0.9995
2025-07-18 23:00: 0.9995
2025-07-19 00:00: 0.9995
2025-07-19 01:00: 0.9995
2025-07-19 02:00: 0.9995
2025-07-19 03:00: 0.9995
2025-07-19 04:00: 0.9995
2025-07-19 05:00: 0.9995
2025-07-19 06:00: 0.9995
2025-07-19 07:00: 0.9995
2025-07-19 08:00: 0.9995
2025-07-19 09:00: 0.9995
2025-07-19 10:00: 0.9995
2025-07-19 11:00: 0.9995
2025-07-19 12:00: 0.9995
2025-07-19 13:00: 0.9965
2025-07-19 14:00: 0.9965
2025-07-19 15:00: 0.9965
2025-07-19 16:00: 0.9965
2025-07-19 17:00: 0.9965
2025-07-19 18:00: 0.9965
2025-07-19 19:00: 0.9965
2025-07-19 20:00: 0.9965
2025-07-19 21:00: 0.9965
2025-07-19 22:00: 0.9965
2025-07-19 23:00: 0.9965
2025-07-20 00:00: 0.9965
2025-07-20 01:00: 0.9965
2025-07-20 02:00: 0.9965
2025-07-20 03:00: 0.9965
Trade Summary: Total trades: 22, Buy volume: 0.00, Sell volume: 35.06, Average price: 0.9946, Price range: 0.9930 - 0.9990

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 554572
Question: Will Brad Lander’s vote share be less than 6% in the first round of the NYC Democratic mayoral primary?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 3342.047711
Price History:
2025-07-20 14:00: 0.0035
2025-07-20 15:00: 0.0035
2025-07-20 16:00: 0.0035
2025-07-20 17:00: 0.0035
2025-07-20 18:00: 0.0035
2025-07-20 19:00: 0.0035
2025-07-20 20:00: 0.0035
2025-07-20 21:00: 0.0035
2025-07-20 22:00: 0.0035
2025-07-20 23:00: 0.0035
2025-07-21 00:00: 0.0035
2025-07-21 01:00: 0.0035
2025-07-21 02:00: 0.0035
2025-07-21 03:00: 0.0035
2025-07-21 04:00: 0.0035
2025-07-21 05:00: 0.0035
2025-07-21 06:00: 0.0035
2025-07-21 07:00: 0.0035
2025-07-21 08:00: 0.0035
2025-07-21 09:00: 0.0035
2025-07-21 10:00: 0.0035
2025-07-21 11:00: 0.0035
2025-07-21 12:00: 0.0035
2025-07-21 13:00: 0.0035
2025-07-21 14:00: 0.0040
2025-07-21 15:00: 0.0040
2025-07-21 16:00: 0.0040
2025-07-21 17:00: 0.0040
2025-07-21 18:00: 0.0025
2025-07-21 19:00: 0.0025
2025-07-21 20:00: 0.0025
2025-07-21 21:00: 0.0025
2025-07-21 22:00: 0.0025
2025-07-21 23:00: 0.0025
2025-07-22 00:00: 0.0025
2025-07-22 01:00: 0.0025
2025-07-22 02:00: 0.0025
2025-07-22 03:00: 0.0025
2025-07-22 04:00: 0.0025
2025-07-22 05:00: 0.0025
2025-07-22 06:00: 0.0025
2025-07-22 07:00: 0.0025
2025-07-22 08:00: 0.0025
2025-07-22 09:00: 0.0025
2025-07-22 10:00: 0.0025
2025-07-22 11:00: 0.0025
2025-07-22 12:00: 0.0025
2025-07-22 13:00: 0.0025
2025-07-22 14:00: 0.0025
2025-07-22 15:00: 0.0025
Trade Summary: Total trades: 2, Buy volume: 50.00, Sell volume: 1.94, Average price: 0.9970, Price range: 0.9950 - 0.9990

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 554572
Question: Will Brad Lander’s vote share be less than 6% in the first round of the NYC Democratic mayoral primary?
Volume: 3342.047711
Price History:
2025-06-20 20:00: 0.2450
2025-06-20 21:00: 0.7550
2025-06-20 23:00: 0.2500
2025-06-21 00:00: 0.7500
2025-06-21 02:00: 0.1600
2025-06-21 03:00: 0.8400
2025-06-21 05:00: 0.1600
2025-06-21 06:00: 0.8050
2025-06-21 08:00: 0.1750
2025-06-21 09:00: 0.8250
2025-06-21 11:00: 0.1800
2025-06-21 12:00: 0.8250
2025-06-21 14:00: 0.1800
2025-06-21 15:00: 0.8300
2025-06-21 17:00: 0.1700
2025-06-21 18:00: 0.8450
2025-06-21 20:00: 0.1550
2025-06-21 21:00: 0.8450
2025-06-21 23:00: 0.1550
2025-06-22 00:00: 0.8450
2025-06-22 02:00: 0.1550
2025-06-22 03:00: 0.8500
2025-06-22 05:00: 0.1500
2025-06-22 06:00: 0.8500
2025-06-22 08:00: 0.1500
2025-06-22 09:00: 0.8500
2025-06-22 11:00: 0.1500
2025-06-22 12:00: 0.8500
2025-06-22 14:00: 0.1500
2025-06-22 15:00: 0.8500
Trade Summary: Total trades: 12, Buy volume: 365.60, Sell volume: 11.05, Average price: 0.6525, Price range: 0.1300 - 0.9800
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 554572
Question: Will Brad Lander’s vote share be less than 6% in the first round of the NYC Democratic mayoral primary?
Volume: 3342.047711
Price History:
2025-06-23 07:00: 0.9400
2025-06-23 09:00: 0.0550
2025-06-23 10:00: 0.9850
2025-06-23 12:00: 0.0560
2025-06-23 13:00: 0.9435
2025-06-23 15:00: 0.0180
2025-06-23 16:00: 0.9930
2025-06-23 18:00: 0.0105
2025-06-23 19:00: 0.9495
2025-06-23 21:00: 0.0650
2025-06-23 22:00: 0.9310
2025-06-24 00:00: 0.0505
2025-06-24 01:00: 0.9445
2025-06-24 03:00: 0.0560
2025-06-24 04:00: 0.9470
2025-06-24 06:00: 0.0540
2025-06-24 07:00: 0.9460
2025-06-24 09:00: 0.0525
2025-06-24 10:00: 0.9475
2025-06-24 12:00: 0.0560
2025-06-24 13:00: 0.9510
2025-06-24 15:00: 0.0530
2025-06-24 16:00: 0.9480
2025-06-24 18:00: 0.0425
2025-06-24 19:00: 0.9600
2025-06-24 21:00: 0.0530
2025-06-24 22:00: 0.9460
2025-06-25 00:00: 0.0540
2025-06-25 01:00: 0.9460
2025-06-25 03:00: 0.0540
Trade Summary: Total trades: 27, Buy volume: 333.33, Sell volume: 68.44, Average price: 0.7698, Price range: 0.0010 - 0.9980
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 554572
Question: Will Brad Lander’s vote share be less than 6% in the first round of the NYC Democratic mayoral primary?
Volume: 3342.047711
Price History:
2025-06-25 19:00: 0.0295
2025-06-25 20:00: 0.9800
2025-06-25 22:00: 0.0245
2025-06-25 23:00: 0.9670
2025-06-26 01:00: 0.0320
2025-06-26 02:00: 0.9705
2025-06-26 04:00: 0.0190
2025-06-26 05:00: 0.9810
2025-06-26 07:00: 0.0320
2025-06-26 08:00: 0.9840
2025-06-26 10:00: 0.0160
2025-06-26 11:00: 0.9840
2025-06-26 13:00: 0.0160
2025-06-26 14:00: 0.9840
2025-06-26 16:00: 0.0155
2025-06-26 17:00: 0.9940
2025-06-26 19:00: 0.0060
2025-06-26 20:00: 0.9940
2025-06-26 22:00: 0.0055
2025-06-26 23:00: 0.9940
2025-06-27 01:00: 0.0060
2025-06-27 02:00: 0.9940
2025-06-27 04:00: 0.0060
2025-06-27 05:00: 0.9935
2025-06-27 07:00: 0.0065
2025-06-27 08:00: 0.9940
2025-06-27 10:00: 0.0060
2025-06-27 11:00: 0.9940
2025-06-27 13:00: 0.0060
2025-06-27 14:00: 0.9940
Trade Summary: Total trades: 15, Buy volume: 418.88, Sell volume: 156.48, Average price: 0.8626, Price range: 0.0020 - 0.9980
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes