Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 501698
Question: Will Republicans have 53 seats in Senate after election?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 1285723.48474
Price History:
2024-07-31 11:00: 0.1650
2024-07-31 17:00: 0.8350
2024-08-01 00:00: 0.1650
2024-08-01 06:00: 0.8450
2024-08-01 13:00: 0.1550
2024-08-01 19:00: 0.8450
2024-08-02 02:00: 0.1550
2024-08-02 08:00: 0.8450
2024-08-02 15:00: 0.1550
2024-08-02 21:00: 0.8450
2024-08-03 04:00: 0.1550
2024-08-03 10:00: 0.8450
2024-08-03 17:00: 0.1550
2024-08-03 23:00: 0.8450
2024-08-04 06:00: 0.1550
2024-08-04 12:00: 0.8450
2024-08-04 19:00: 0.1550
2024-08-05 01:00: 0.8500
2024-08-05 08:00: 0.1500
2024-08-05 14:00: 0.8500
2024-08-05 21:00: 0.1500
2024-08-06 03:00: 0.8500
2024-08-06 10:00: 0.1500
2024-08-06 16:00: 0.8500
2024-08-06 23:00: 0.1500
2024-08-07 05:00: 0.8500
2024-08-07 12:00: 0.1500
2024-08-07 18:00: 0.8500
2024-08-08 01:00: 0.1500
2024-08-08 07:00: 0.8500
2024-08-08 14:00: 0.1500
2024-08-08 20:00: 0.8500
2024-08-09 03:00: 0.1500
2024-08-09 09:00: 0.8500
2024-08-09 16:00: 0.1500
2024-08-09 22:00: 0.8500
2024-08-10 05:00: 0.1500
2024-08-10 11:00: 0.8500
2024-08-10 18:00: 0.1500
2024-08-11 00:00: 0.8500
2024-08-11 07:00: 0.1500
2024-08-11 13:00: 0.8500
2024-08-11 20:00: 0.1500
2024-08-12 02:00: 0.8500
2024-08-12 09:00: 0.1500
2024-08-12 15:00: 0.8500
2024-08-12 22:00: 0.1500
2024-08-13 04:00: 0.8500
2024-08-13 11:00: 0.1500
2024-08-13 17:00: 0.8650
Trade Summary: No trades available

Output: No


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 501698
Question: Will Republicans have 53 seats in Senate after election?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 1285723.48474
Price History:
2024-08-14 15:00: 0.1300
2024-08-14 21:00: 0.8650
2024-08-15 04:00: 0.1300
2024-08-15 10:00: 0.8700
2024-08-15 17:00: 0.1300
2024-08-15 23:00: 0.8750
2024-08-16 06:00: 0.1300
2024-08-16 12:00: 0.8700
2024-08-16 19:00: 0.1300
2024-08-17 01:00: 0.8700
2024-08-17 08:00: 0.1250
2024-08-17 14:00: 0.8750
2024-08-17 21:00: 0.1250
2024-08-18 03:00: 0.8750
2024-08-18 10:00: 0.1250
2024-08-18 16:00: 0.8750
2024-08-18 23:00: 0.1250
2024-08-19 05:00: 0.8750
2024-08-19 12:00: 0.1250
2024-08-19 18:00: 0.8750
2024-08-20 01:00: 0.1250
2024-08-20 07:00: 0.8750
2024-08-20 14:00: 0.1250
2024-08-20 20:00: 0.8750
2024-08-21 03:00: 0.1250
2024-08-21 09:00: 0.8750
2024-08-21 16:00: 0.1250
2024-08-21 22:00: 0.8750
2024-08-22 05:00: 0.1250
2024-08-22 11:00: 0.8750
2024-08-22 18:00: 0.1250
2024-08-23 00:00: 0.8750
2024-08-23 07:00: 0.1250
2024-08-23 13:00: 0.8750
2024-08-23 20:00: 0.1250
2024-08-24 02:00: 0.8750
2024-08-24 09:00: 0.1250
2024-08-24 15:00: 0.8750
2024-08-24 22:00: 0.1250
2024-08-25 04:00: 0.8750
2024-08-25 11:00: 0.1250
2024-08-25 17:00: 0.8850
2024-08-26 00:00: 0.1150
2024-08-26 06:00: 0.8850
2024-08-26 13:00: 0.1150
2024-08-26 19:00: 0.8850
2024-08-27 02:00: 0.1150
2024-08-27 08:00: 0.8850
2024-08-27 15:00: 0.1150
2024-08-27 21:00: 0.8850
Trade Summary: No trades available

Output: No


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 501698
Question: Will Republicans have 53 seats in Senate after election?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 1285723.48474
Price History:
2024-08-28 19:00: 0.1150
2024-08-29 01:00: 0.8850
2024-08-29 08:00: 0.1150
2024-08-29 14:00: 0.8850
2024-08-29 21:00: 0.1150
2024-08-30 03:00: 0.8850
2024-08-30 10:00: 0.1150
2024-08-30 16:00: 0.8850
2024-08-30 23:00: 0.1150
2024-08-31 05:00: 0.8850
2024-08-31 12:00: 0.1150
2024-08-31 18:00: 0.8850
2024-09-01 01:00: 0.1100
2024-09-01 07:00: 0.8900
2024-09-01 14:00: 0.1100
2024-09-01 20:00: 0.8900
2024-09-02 03:00: 0.1100
2024-09-02 09:00: 0.8900
2024-09-02 16:00: 0.1100
2024-09-02 22:00: 0.8900
2024-09-03 05:00: 0.1100
2024-09-03 11:00: 0.8900
2024-09-03 18:00: 0.1050
2024-09-04 00:00: 0.8950
2024-09-04 07:00: 0.1050
2024-09-04 13:00: 0.8950
2024-09-04 20:00: 0.1050
2024-09-05 02:00: 0.8950
2024-09-05 09:00: 0.1050
2024-09-05 15:00: 0.9050
2024-09-05 22:00: 0.0950
2024-09-06 04:00: 0.9050
2024-09-06 11:00: 0.0950
2024-09-06 17:00: 0.9050
2024-09-07 00:00: 0.0950
2024-09-07 06:00: 0.9050
2024-09-07 13:00: 0.0950
2024-09-07 19:00: 0.9050
2024-09-08 02:00: 0.0950
2024-09-08 08:00: 0.9050
2024-09-08 15:00: 0.0950
2024-09-08 21:00: 0.9050
2024-09-09 04:00: 0.0950
2024-09-09 10:00: 0.9050
2024-09-09 17:00: 0.0950
2024-09-09 23:00: 0.9050
2024-09-10 06:00: 0.0950
2024-09-10 12:00: 0.9050
2024-09-10 19:00: 0.0950
2024-09-11 01:00: 0.9050
Trade Summary: No trades available

Output: No


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 501698
Question: Will Republicans have 53 seats in Senate after election?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 1285723.48474
Price History:
2024-09-11 23:00: 0.0950
2024-09-12 05:00: 0.9050
2024-09-12 12:00: 0.0950
2024-09-12 18:00: 0.9050
2024-09-13 01:00: 0.0950
2024-09-13 07:00: 0.9050
2024-09-13 14:00: 0.0950
2024-09-13 20:00: 0.9050
2024-09-14 03:00: 0.0950
2024-09-14 09:00: 0.9050
2024-09-14 16:00: 0.0950
2024-09-14 22:00: 0.9050
2024-09-15 05:00: 0.0950
2024-09-15 11:00: 0.9050
2024-09-15 18:00: 0.0850
2024-09-16 00:00: 0.9150
2024-09-16 07:00: 0.0850
2024-09-16 13:00: 0.9150
2024-09-16 20:00: 0.0850
2024-09-17 02:00: 0.9150
2024-09-17 09:00: 0.0850
2024-09-17 15:00: 0.9100
2024-09-17 22:00: 0.0900
2024-09-18 04:00: 0.9100
2024-09-18 11:00: 0.0850
2024-09-18 17:00: 0.9100
2024-09-19 00:00: 0.0900
2024-09-19 06:00: 0.9100
2024-09-19 13:00: 0.0900
2024-09-19 19:00: 0.9100
2024-09-20 02:00: 0.0900
2024-09-20 08:00: 0.9100
2024-09-20 15:00: 0.0900
2024-09-20 21:00: 0.9100
2024-09-21 04:00: 0.0900
2024-09-21 10:00: 0.9100
2024-09-21 17:00: 0.0900
2024-09-21 23:00: 0.9100
2024-09-22 06:00: 0.0900
2024-09-22 12:00: 0.9150
2024-09-22 19:00: 0.0900
2024-09-23 01:00: 0.9100
2024-09-23 08:00: 0.0850
2024-09-23 14:00: 0.9150
2024-09-23 21:00: 0.0850
2024-09-24 03:00: 0.9150
2024-09-24 10:00: 0.0850
2024-09-24 16:00: 0.9150
2024-09-24 23:00: 0.0850
2024-09-25 05:00: 0.9150
Trade Summary: No trades available

Output: No


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 501698
Question: Will Republicans have 53 seats in Senate after election?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 1285723.48474
Price History:
2024-09-26 03:00: 0.0800
2024-09-26 09:00: 0.9200
2024-09-26 16:00: 0.0800
2024-09-26 22:00: 0.9200
2024-09-27 05:00: 0.0800
2024-09-27 11:00: 0.9250
2024-09-27 18:00: 0.0800
2024-09-28 00:00: 0.9200
2024-09-28 07:00: 0.0800
2024-09-28 13:00: 0.9200
2024-09-28 20:00: 0.0800
2024-09-29 02:00: 0.9200
2024-09-29 09:00: 0.0800
2024-09-29 15:00: 0.9200
2024-09-29 22:00: 0.0800
2024-09-30 04:00: 0.9250
2024-09-30 11:00: 0.0800
2024-09-30 17:00: 0.9200
2024-10-01 00:00: 0.0800
2024-10-01 06:00: 0.9250
2024-10-01 13:00: 0.0800
2024-10-01 19:00: 0.9200
2024-10-02 02:00: 0.0800
2024-10-02 08:00: 0.9200
2024-10-02 14:00: 0.0800
2024-10-02 20:00: 0.9250
2024-10-03 03:00: 0.0750
2024-10-03 09:00: 0.9250
2024-10-03 16:00: 0.0750
2024-10-03 22:00: 0.9250
2024-10-04 05:00: 0.0750
2024-10-04 11:00: 0.9250
2024-10-04 18:00: 0.0750
2024-10-05 00:00: 0.9250
2024-10-05 07:00: 0.0750
2024-10-05 13:00: 0.9250
2024-10-05 20:00: 0.0750
2024-10-06 02:00: 0.9250
2024-10-06 09:00: 0.0750
2024-10-06 15:00: 0.9250
2024-10-06 22:00: 0.0750
2024-10-07 04:00: 0.9250
2024-10-07 11:00: 0.0750
2024-10-07 17:00: 0.9250
2024-10-08 00:00: 0.0750
2024-10-08 06:00: 0.9250
2024-10-08 13:00: 0.0750
2024-10-08 19:00: 0.9250
2024-10-09 02:00: 0.0750
2024-10-09 08:00: 0.9250
Trade Summary: No trades available

Output: No


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 501698
Question: Will Republicans have 53 seats in Senate after election?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 1285723.48474
Price History:
2024-10-10 06:00: 0.0850
2024-10-10 12:00: 0.9200
2024-10-10 19:00: 0.0800
2024-10-11 01:00: 0.9050
2024-10-11 08:00: 0.0800
2024-10-11 14:00: 0.9150
2024-10-11 21:00: 0.1000
2024-10-12 03:00: 0.9050
2024-10-12 10:00: 0.0950
2024-10-12 16:00: 0.9050
2024-10-12 23:00: 0.1050
2024-10-13 05:00: 0.8950
2024-10-13 12:00: 0.1050
2024-10-13 18:00: 0.8950
2024-10-14 01:00: 0.1150
2024-10-14 07:00: 0.8900
2024-10-14 14:00: 0.1050
2024-10-14 20:00: 0.8950
2024-10-15 03:00: 0.1050
2024-10-15 09:00: 0.8950
2024-10-15 16:00: 0.1050
2024-10-15 22:00: 0.9000
2024-10-16 05:00: 0.1000
2024-10-16 11:00: 0.9000
2024-10-16 18:00: 0.1000
2024-10-17 00:00: 0.9150
2024-10-17 07:00: 0.0800
2024-10-17 13:00: 0.8950
2024-10-17 20:00: 0.1000
2024-10-18 02:00: 0.8950
2024-10-18 09:00: 0.1050
2024-10-18 15:00: 0.8950
2024-10-18 22:00: 0.1050
2024-10-19 04:00: 0.8950
2024-10-19 11:00: 0.1050
2024-10-19 17:00: 0.8950
2024-10-20 00:00: 0.1050
2024-10-20 06:00: 0.8950
2024-10-20 13:00: 0.1050
2024-10-20 19:00: 0.8950
2024-10-21 02:00: 0.1050
2024-10-21 08:00: 0.8950
2024-10-21 15:00: 0.1050
2024-10-21 21:00: 0.8950
2024-10-22 04:00: 0.1050
2024-10-22 10:00: 0.8950
2024-10-22 17:00: 0.1050
2024-10-22 23:00: 0.8900
2024-10-23 06:00: 0.1100
2024-10-23 12:00: 0.8950
Trade Summary: No trades available

Output: No


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 501698
Question: Will Republicans have 53 seats in Senate after election?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 1285723.48474
Price History:
2024-10-24 10:00: 0.1150
2024-10-24 16:00: 0.8850
2024-10-24 23:00: 0.1150
2024-10-25 05:00: 0.8850
2024-10-25 12:00: 0.1150
2024-10-25 18:00: 0.8850
2024-10-26 01:00: 0.1150
2024-10-26 07:00: 0.8900
2024-10-26 14:00: 0.1050
2024-10-26 20:00: 0.8850
2024-10-27 03:00: 0.1100
2024-10-27 09:00: 0.8900
2024-10-27 16:00: 0.1100
2024-10-27 22:00: 0.8900
2024-10-28 05:00: 0.1100
2024-10-28 11:00: 0.8900
2024-10-28 18:00: 0.0950
2024-10-29 00:00: 0.9150
2024-10-29 07:00: 0.0800
2024-10-29 13:00: 0.9300
2024-10-29 20:00: 0.0650
2024-10-30 02:00: 0.9250
2024-10-30 09:00: 0.0850
2024-10-30 15:00: 0.9150
2024-10-30 22:00: 0.0850
2024-10-31 04:00: 0.8950
2024-10-31 11:00: 0.1050
2024-10-31 17:00: 0.8950
2024-11-01 00:00: 0.1050
2024-11-01 06:00: 0.9000
2024-11-01 13:00: 0.1050
2024-11-01 19:00: 0.8950
2024-11-02 02:00: 0.1050
2024-11-02 08:00: 0.8950
2024-11-02 15:00: 0.1050
2024-11-02 21:00: 0.8950
2024-11-03 03:00: 0.1000
2024-11-03 09:00: 0.9000
2024-11-03 16:00: 0.0900
2024-11-03 22:00: 0.9050
2024-11-04 05:00: 0.0900
2024-11-04 11:00: 0.9000
2024-11-04 18:00: 0.0900
2024-11-05 00:00: 0.9250
2024-11-05 07:00: 0.0550
2024-11-05 13:00: 0.9100
2024-11-05 21:00: 0.1050
2024-11-06 03:00: 0.9200
2024-11-06 10:00: 0.6400
2024-11-06 16:00: 0.6200
Trade Summary: No trades available

Output: No


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 501698
Question: Will Republicans have 53 seats in Senate after election?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 1285723.48474
Price History:
2024-11-07 14:00: 0.9200
2024-11-07 20:00: 0.0750
2024-11-08 03:00: 0.8700
2024-11-08 09:00: 0.1150
2024-11-08 16:00: 0.8450
2024-11-08 22:00: 0.1300
2024-11-09 05:00: 0.8950
2024-11-09 11:00: 0.1050
2024-11-09 18:00: 0.9350
2024-11-10 00:00: 0.0345
2024-11-10 07:00: 0.9825
2024-11-10 13:00: 0.0215
2024-11-10 20:00: 0.9820
2024-11-11 02:00: 0.0115
2024-11-11 09:00: 0.9905
2024-11-11 15:00: 0.0150
2024-11-11 22:00: 0.9885
2024-11-12 04:00: 0.0135
2024-11-12 11:00: 0.9920
2024-11-12 17:00: 0.0180
2024-11-13 00:00: 0.9775
2024-11-13 06:00: 0.0220
2024-11-13 13:00: 0.9830
2024-11-13 19:00: 0.0245
2024-11-14 02:00: 0.9770
2024-11-14 08:00: 0.0210
2024-11-14 15:00: 0.9870
2024-11-14 21:00: 0.0165
2024-11-15 04:00: 0.9850
2024-11-15 10:00: 0.0105
2024-11-15 17:00: 0.9895
2024-11-15 23:00: 0.0190
2024-11-16 06:00: 0.9815
2024-11-16 12:00: 0.0065
2024-11-16 19:00: 0.9925
2024-11-17 01:00: 0.0120
2024-11-17 08:00: 0.9875
2024-11-17 14:00: 0.0125
2024-11-17 21:00: 0.9855
2024-11-18 03:00: 0.0155
2024-11-18 10:00: 0.9825
2024-11-18 16:00: 0.0175
2024-11-18 23:00: 0.9855
2024-11-19 05:00: 0.0145
2024-11-19 12:00: 0.9880
2024-11-19 18:00: 0.0095
2024-11-20 01:00: 0.9875
2024-11-20 07:00: 0.0120
2024-11-20 14:00: 0.9875
2024-11-20 20:00: 0.0115
Trade Summary: No trades available

Output: No


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 501698
Question: Will Republicans have 53 seats in Senate after election?
Volume: 1285723.48474
Price History:
2024-05-21 14:00: 0.1500
2024-05-22 01:00: 0.1800
2024-05-22 12:00: 0.1750
2024-05-22 23:00: 0.1750
2024-05-23 10:00: 0.1750
2024-05-23 21:00: 0.1750
2024-05-24 08:00: 0.1750
2024-05-24 19:00: 0.1750
2024-05-25 06:00: 0.1750
2024-05-25 17:00: 0.1750
2024-05-26 04:00: 0.1750
2024-05-26 15:00: 0.1750
2024-05-27 02:00: 0.1750
2024-05-27 13:00: 0.1750
2024-05-28 00:00: 0.1750
2024-05-28 11:00: 0.1750
2024-05-28 22:00: 0.1750
2024-05-29 09:00: 0.1750
2024-05-29 20:00: 0.1750
2024-05-30 07:00: 0.1750
2024-05-30 18:00: 0.1750
2024-05-31 05:00: 0.1650
2024-05-31 16:00: 0.1650
2024-06-01 03:00: 0.1650
2024-06-01 14:00: 0.1650
2024-06-02 01:00: 0.1650
2024-06-02 12:00: 0.1650
2024-06-02 23:00: 0.1650
2024-06-03 10:00: 0.1650
2024-06-03 21:00: 0.1650
Trade Summary: No trades available
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 501698
Question: Will Republicans have 53 seats in Senate after election?
Volume: 1285723.48474
Price History:
2024-06-04 18:00: 0.1650
2024-06-05 05:00: 0.1650
2024-06-05 16:00: 0.1650
2024-06-06 03:00: 0.1650
2024-06-06 14:00: 0.1650
2024-06-07 01:00: 0.1650
2024-06-07 12:00: 0.1650
2024-06-07 23:00: 0.1650
2024-06-08 10:00: 0.1650
2024-06-08 21:00: 0.1650
2024-06-09 08:00: 0.1650
2024-06-09 19:00: 0.1650
2024-06-10 06:00: 0.1650
2024-06-10 17:00: 0.1650
2024-06-11 04:00: 0.1650
2024-06-11 15:00: 0.1650
2024-06-12 02:00: 0.1650
2024-06-12 13:00: 0.1650
2024-06-13 00:00: 0.1650
2024-06-13 11:00: 0.1650
2024-06-13 22:00: 0.1650
2024-06-14 09:00: 0.1650
2024-06-14 20:00: 0.1650
2024-06-15 07:00: 0.1650
2024-06-15 18:00: 0.1650
2024-06-16 05:00: 0.1650
2024-06-16 16:00: 0.1650
2024-06-17 03:00: 0.1650
2024-06-17 14:00: 0.1650
2024-06-18 01:00: 0.1650
Trade Summary: No trades available
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 501698
Question: Will Republicans have 53 seats in Senate after election?
Volume: 1285723.48474
Price History:
2024-06-18 22:00: 0.1650
2024-06-19 09:00: 0.1650
2024-06-19 20:00: 0.1650
2024-06-20 07:00: 0.1650
2024-06-20 18:00: 0.1650
2024-06-21 05:00: 0.1650
2024-06-21 16:00: 0.1650
2024-06-22 03:00: 0.1650
2024-06-22 14:00: 0.1650
2024-06-23 01:00: 0.1650
2024-06-23 12:00: 0.1650
2024-06-23 23:00: 0.1650
2024-06-24 10:00: 0.1650
2024-06-24 21:00: 0.1650
2024-06-25 08:00: 0.1650
2024-06-25 19:00: 0.1650
2024-06-26 06:00: 0.1650
2024-06-26 17:00: 0.1650
2024-06-27 04:00: 0.1650
2024-06-27 15:00: 0.1650
2024-06-28 02:00: 0.1650
2024-06-28 13:00: 0.1650
2024-06-29 00:00: 0.1650
2024-06-29 11:00: 0.1650
2024-06-29 22:00: 0.1650
2024-06-30 09:00: 0.1650
2024-06-30 20:00: 0.1650
2024-07-01 07:00: 0.1650
2024-07-01 18:00: 0.1650
2024-07-02 05:00: 0.1650
Trade Summary: No trades available
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 501698
Question: Will Republicans have 53 seats in Senate after election?
Volume: 1285723.48474
Price History:
2024-07-03 02:00: 0.1650
2024-07-03 13:00: 0.1650
2024-07-04 00:00: 0.1650
2024-07-04 11:00: 0.1650
2024-07-04 22:00: 0.1650
2024-07-05 09:00: 0.1650
2024-07-05 20:00: 0.1650
2024-07-06 07:00: 0.1650
2024-07-06 18:00: 0.1650
2024-07-07 05:00: 0.1650
2024-07-07 16:00: 0.1650
2024-07-08 03:00: 0.1650
2024-07-08 14:00: 0.1650
2024-07-09 01:00: 0.1650
2024-07-09 12:00: 0.1650
2024-07-09 23:00: 0.1650
2024-07-10 10:00: 0.1650
2024-07-10 21:00: 0.1650
2024-07-11 08:00: 0.1650
2024-07-11 19:00: 0.1650
2024-07-12 06:00: 0.1650
2024-07-12 17:00: 0.1650
2024-07-13 04:00: 0.1650
2024-07-13 15:00: 0.1650
2024-07-14 02:00: 0.1650
2024-07-14 13:00: 0.1650
2024-07-15 00:00: 0.1650
2024-07-15 11:00: 0.1650
2024-07-15 22:00: 0.1650
2024-07-16 09:00: 0.1650
Trade Summary: No trades available
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 501698
Question: Will Republicans have 53 seats in Senate after election?
Volume: 1285723.48474
Price History:
2024-07-17 06:00: 0.1650
2024-07-17 17:00: 0.1650
2024-07-18 04:00: 0.1650
2024-07-18 15:00: 0.1650
2024-07-19 02:00: 0.1650
2024-07-19 13:00: 0.1650
2024-07-20 00:00: 0.1650
2024-07-20 11:00: 0.1650
2024-07-20 22:00: 0.1650
2024-07-21 09:00: 0.1650
2024-07-21 21:00: 0.1650
2024-07-22 08:00: 0.1650
2024-07-22 19:00: 0.1650
2024-07-23 06:00: 0.1650
2024-07-23 17:00: 0.1650
2024-07-24 04:00: 0.1650
2024-07-24 15:00: 0.1650
2024-07-25 02:00: 0.1650
2024-07-25 13:00: 0.1650
2024-07-26 00:00: 0.1650
2024-07-26 11:00: 0.1650
2024-07-26 22:00: 0.1650
2024-07-27 09:00: 0.1650
2024-07-27 20:00: 0.1650
2024-07-28 07:00: 0.1650
2024-07-28 18:00: 0.1650
2024-07-29 05:00: 0.1650
2024-07-29 16:00: 0.1650
2024-07-30 03:00: 0.1650
2024-07-30 14:00: 0.1650
Trade Summary: No trades available
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 501698
Question: Will Republicans have 53 seats in Senate after election?
Volume: 1285723.48474
Price History:
2024-07-31 11:00: 0.1650
2024-07-31 22:00: 0.1650
2024-08-01 09:00: 0.1550
2024-08-01 20:00: 0.1550
2024-08-02 07:00: 0.1550
2024-08-02 18:00: 0.1550
2024-08-03 05:00: 0.1550
2024-08-03 16:00: 0.1550
2024-08-04 03:00: 0.1550
2024-08-04 14:00: 0.1550
2024-08-05 01:00: 0.1500
2024-08-05 12:00: 0.1500
2024-08-05 23:00: 0.1500
2024-08-06 10:00: 0.1500
2024-08-06 21:00: 0.1500
2024-08-07 08:00: 0.1500
2024-08-07 19:00: 0.1500
2024-08-08 06:00: 0.1500
2024-08-08 17:00: 0.1500
2024-08-09 04:00: 0.1500
2024-08-09 15:00: 0.1500
2024-08-10 02:00: 0.1500
2024-08-10 13:00: 0.1500
2024-08-11 00:00: 0.1500
2024-08-11 11:00: 0.1500
2024-08-11 22:00: 0.1500
2024-08-12 09:00: 0.1500
2024-08-12 20:00: 0.1500
2024-08-13 07:00: 0.1500
2024-08-13 18:00: 0.1350
Trade Summary: No trades available
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 501698
Question: Will Republicans have 53 seats in Senate after election?
Volume: 1285723.48474
Price History:
2024-08-14 15:00: 0.1300
2024-08-15 02:00: 0.1300
2024-08-15 13:00: 0.1300
2024-08-16 00:00: 0.1250
2024-08-16 11:00: 0.1300
2024-08-16 22:00: 0.1300
2024-08-17 09:00: 0.1250
2024-08-17 20:00: 0.1250
2024-08-18 07:00: 0.1250
2024-08-18 18:00: 0.1250
2024-08-19 05:00: 0.1250
2024-08-19 16:00: 0.1250
2024-08-20 03:00: 0.1250
2024-08-20 14:00: 0.1250
2024-08-21 01:00: 0.1250
2024-08-21 12:00: 0.1250
2024-08-21 23:00: 0.1250
2024-08-22 10:00: 0.1250
2024-08-22 21:00: 0.1250
2024-08-23 08:00: 0.1250
2024-08-23 19:00: 0.1250
2024-08-24 06:00: 0.1250
2024-08-24 17:00: 0.1250
2024-08-25 04:00: 0.1250
2024-08-25 15:00: 0.1150
2024-08-26 02:00: 0.1150
2024-08-26 13:00: 0.1150
2024-08-27 00:00: 0.1150
2024-08-27 11:00: 0.1150
2024-08-27 22:00: 0.1150
Trade Summary: No trades available
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 501698
Question: Will Republicans have 53 seats in Senate after election?
Volume: 1285723.48474
Price History:
2024-08-28 19:00: 0.1150
2024-08-29 06:00: 0.1150
2024-08-29 17:00: 0.1150
2024-08-30 04:00: 0.1150
2024-08-30 15:00: 0.1150
2024-08-31 02:00: 0.1150
2024-08-31 13:00: 0.1150
2024-09-01 00:00: 0.1100
2024-09-01 11:00: 0.1100
2024-09-01 22:00: 0.1100
2024-09-02 09:00: 0.1100
2024-09-02 20:00: 0.1100
2024-09-03 07:00: 0.1100
2024-09-03 18:00: 0.1050
2024-09-04 05:00: 0.1050
2024-09-04 16:00: 0.1050
2024-09-05 03:00: 0.1050
2024-09-05 14:00: 0.0950
2024-09-06 01:00: 0.0950
2024-09-06 12:00: 0.0950
2024-09-06 23:00: 0.0950
2024-09-07 10:00: 0.0950
2024-09-07 21:00: 0.0950
2024-09-08 08:00: 0.0950
2024-09-08 19:00: 0.0950
2024-09-09 06:00: 0.0950
2024-09-09 17:00: 0.0950
2024-09-10 04:00: 0.0950
2024-09-10 15:00: 0.0950
2024-09-11 02:00: 0.0950
Trade Summary: No trades available
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 501698
Question: Will Republicans have 53 seats in Senate after election?
Volume: 1285723.48474
Price History:
2024-09-11 23:00: 0.0950
2024-09-12 10:00: 0.0950
2024-09-12 21:00: 0.0950
2024-09-13 08:00: 0.0950
2024-09-13 19:00: 0.0950
2024-09-14 06:00: 0.0950
2024-09-14 17:00: 0.0950
2024-09-15 04:00: 0.0950
2024-09-15 15:00: 0.0950
2024-09-16 02:00: 0.0850
2024-09-16 13:00: 0.0850
2024-09-17 00:00: 0.0850
2024-09-17 11:00: 0.0900
2024-09-17 22:00: 0.0900
2024-09-18 09:00: 0.0900
2024-09-18 20:00: 0.0900
2024-09-19 07:00: 0.0900
2024-09-19 18:00: 0.0900
2024-09-20 05:00: 0.0900
2024-09-20 16:00: 0.0900
2024-09-21 03:00: 0.0900
2024-09-21 14:00: 0.0900
2024-09-22 01:00: 0.0900
2024-09-22 12:00: 0.0850
2024-09-22 23:00: 0.0900
2024-09-23 10:00: 0.0850
2024-09-23 21:00: 0.0850
2024-09-24 08:00: 0.0850
2024-09-24 19:00: 0.0850
2024-09-25 06:00: 0.0850
Trade Summary: No trades available
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 501698
Question: Will Republicans have 53 seats in Senate after election?
Volume: 1285723.48474
Price History:
2024-09-26 03:00: 0.0800
2024-09-26 14:00: 0.0800
2024-09-27 01:00: 0.0800
2024-09-27 12:00: 0.0750
2024-09-27 23:00: 0.0800
2024-09-28 10:00: 0.0800
2024-09-28 21:00: 0.0800
2024-09-29 08:00: 0.0800
2024-09-29 19:00: 0.0800
2024-09-30 06:00: 0.0800
2024-09-30 17:00: 0.0800
2024-10-01 04:00: 0.0750
2024-10-01 15:00: 0.0800
2024-10-02 02:00: 0.0800
2024-10-02 12:00: 0.0800
2024-10-02 23:00: 0.0750
2024-10-03 10:00: 0.0750
2024-10-03 21:00: 0.0750
2024-10-04 08:00: 0.0750
2024-10-04 19:00: 0.0750
2024-10-05 06:00: 0.0750
2024-10-05 17:00: 0.0750
2024-10-06 04:00: 0.0750
2024-10-06 15:00: 0.0750
2024-10-07 02:00: 0.0750
2024-10-07 13:00: 0.0750
2024-10-08 00:00: 0.0750
2024-10-08 11:00: 0.0750
2024-10-08 22:00: 0.0750
2024-10-09 09:00: 0.0750
Trade Summary: No trades available
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 501698
Question: Will Republicans have 53 seats in Senate after election?
Volume: 1285723.48474
Price History:
2024-10-10 06:00: 0.0850
2024-10-10 17:00: 0.0850
2024-10-11 04:00: 0.0900
2024-10-11 15:00: 0.0850
2024-10-12 02:00: 0.0950
2024-10-12 13:00: 0.0950
2024-10-13 00:00: 0.1050
2024-10-13 11:00: 0.1050
2024-10-13 22:00: 0.1100
2024-10-14 09:00: 0.1100
2024-10-14 20:00: 0.1050
2024-10-15 07:00: 0.1050
2024-10-15 18:00: 0.1000
2024-10-16 05:00: 0.1000
2024-10-16 16:00: 0.1000
2024-10-17 03:00: 0.0800
2024-10-17 14:00: 0.1000
2024-10-18 01:00: 0.1050
2024-10-18 12:00: 0.1050
2024-10-18 23:00: 0.1050
2024-10-19 10:00: 0.1050
2024-10-19 21:00: 0.1050
2024-10-20 08:00: 0.1050
2024-10-20 19:00: 0.1050
2024-10-21 06:00: 0.1050
2024-10-21 17:00: 0.1050
2024-10-22 04:00: 0.1050
2024-10-22 15:00: 0.1050
2024-10-23 02:00: 0.1100
2024-10-23 13:00: 0.1050
Trade Summary: No trades available
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 501698
Question: Will Republicans have 53 seats in Senate after election?
Volume: 1285723.48474
Price History:
2024-10-24 10:00: 0.1150
2024-10-24 21:00: 0.1150
2024-10-25 08:00: 0.1150
2024-10-25 19:00: 0.1150
2024-10-26 06:00: 0.1100
2024-10-26 17:00: 0.1100
2024-10-27 04:00: 0.1150
2024-10-27 15:00: 0.1150
2024-10-28 02:00: 0.1100
2024-10-28 13:00: 0.0950
2024-10-29 00:00: 0.0850
2024-10-29 11:00: 0.0850
2024-10-29 22:00: 0.0650
2024-10-30 09:00: 0.0850
2024-10-30 20:00: 0.0850
2024-10-31 07:00: 0.1050
2024-10-31 18:00: 0.1050
2024-11-01 05:00: 0.1000
2024-11-01 16:00: 0.1050
2024-11-02 03:00: 0.1050
2024-11-02 14:00: 0.1000
2024-11-03 01:00: 0.1000
2024-11-03 11:00: 0.1000
2024-11-03 22:00: 0.0950
2024-11-04 09:00: 0.0900
2024-11-04 20:00: 0.0800
2024-11-05 07:00: 0.0550
2024-11-05 19:00: 0.0900
2024-11-06 06:00: 0.4750
2024-11-06 17:00: 0.5050
Trade Summary: No trades available
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 501698
Question: Will Republicans have 53 seats in Senate after election?
Volume: 1285723.48474
Price History:
2024-11-07 14:00: 0.9200
2024-11-08 01:00: 0.8750
2024-11-08 12:00: 0.8800
2024-11-08 23:00: 0.9050
2024-11-09 10:00: 0.8900
2024-11-09 21:00: 0.9400
2024-11-10 08:00: 0.9775
2024-11-10 19:00: 0.9825
2024-11-11 06:00: 0.9905
2024-11-11 17:00: 0.9850
2024-11-12 04:00: 0.9865
2024-11-12 15:00: 0.9855
2024-11-13 02:00: 0.9800
2024-11-13 13:00: 0.9830
2024-11-14 00:00: 0.9740
2024-11-14 11:00: 0.9780
2024-11-14 22:00: 0.9790
2024-11-15 09:00: 0.9900
2024-11-15 20:00: 0.9835
2024-11-16 07:00: 0.9820
2024-11-16 18:00: 0.9930
2024-11-17 05:00: 0.9880
2024-11-17 16:00: 0.9865
2024-11-18 03:00: 0.9845
2024-11-18 14:00: 0.9825
2024-11-19 01:00: 0.9855
2024-11-19 12:00: 0.9880
2024-11-19 23:00: 0.9875
2024-11-20 10:00: 0.9875
2024-11-20 21:00: 0.9875
Trade Summary: No trades available
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 570984
Question: Will Trump announce Howard Lutnick to replace Kugler?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 1735.43111
Price History:
2025-08-01 18:00: 0.5000
2025-08-01 18:00: 0.5000
2025-08-01 19:00: 0.1750
2025-08-01 19:00: 0.8250
2025-08-01 20:00: 0.1750
2025-08-01 20:00: 0.8250
2025-08-01 21:00: 0.1700
2025-08-01 21:00: 0.8300
2025-08-01 22:00: 0.1700
2025-08-01 22:00: 0.8300
2025-08-01 23:00: 0.1700
2025-08-01 23:00: 0.8300
2025-08-02 00:00: 0.1750
2025-08-02 00:00: 0.8250
2025-08-02 01:00: 0.1750
2025-08-02 01:00: 0.8250
2025-08-02 02:00: 0.1750
2025-08-02 02:00: 0.8250
2025-08-02 03:00: 0.1750
2025-08-02 03:00: 0.8250
2025-08-02 04:00: 0.1700
2025-08-02 04:00: 0.8300
2025-08-02 05:00: 0.1700
Trade Summary: Total trades: 1, Buy volume: 20.00, Sell volume: 0.00, Average price: 0.3400, Price range: 0.3400 - 0.3400

Output: No


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 570984
Question: Will Trump announce Howard Lutnick to replace Kugler?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 1735.43111
Price History:
2025-08-02 05:00: 0.8300
2025-08-02 06:00: 0.1700
2025-08-02 06:00: 0.8300
2025-08-02 07:00: 0.1700
2025-08-02 07:00: 0.8300
2025-08-02 08:00: 0.1700
2025-08-02 08:00: 0.8300
2025-08-02 09:00: 0.1600
2025-08-02 09:00: 0.8400
2025-08-02 10:00: 0.1600
2025-08-02 10:00: 0.8400
2025-08-02 11:00: 0.1600
2025-08-02 11:00: 0.8400
2025-08-02 12:00: 0.1700
2025-08-02 12:00: 0.8300
2025-08-02 13:00: 0.1700
2025-08-02 13:00: 0.8300
2025-08-02 14:00: 0.1700
2025-08-02 14:00: 0.8300
2025-08-02 15:00: 0.1700
2025-08-02 15:00: 0.8300
2025-08-02 16:00: 0.1700
2025-08-02 16:00: 0.8300
Trade Summary: Total trades: 14, Buy volume: 1724.43, Sell volume: 11.00, Average price: 0.7487, Price range: 0.0010 - 0.9990

Output: No


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 570984
Question: Will Trump announce Howard Lutnick to replace Kugler?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 1735.43111
Price History:
2025-08-02 17:00: 0.1700
2025-08-02 17:00: 0.8300
2025-08-02 18:00: 0.1700
2025-08-02 18:00: 0.8300
2025-08-02 19:00: 0.1700
2025-08-02 19:00: 0.8300
2025-08-02 20:00: 0.1700
2025-08-02 20:00: 0.8300
2025-08-02 21:00: 0.1700
2025-08-02 21:00: 0.8300
2025-08-02 22:00: 0.1700
2025-08-02 22:00: 0.8300
2025-08-02 23:00: 0.1700
2025-08-02 23:00: 0.8300
2025-08-03 00:00: 0.1700
2025-08-03 00:00: 0.8300
2025-08-03 01:00: 0.1700
2025-08-03 01:00: 0.8300
2025-08-03 02:00: 0.1700
2025-08-03 02:00: 0.8300
2025-08-03 03:00: 0.1700
2025-08-03 03:00: 0.8300
2025-08-03 04:00: 0.1700
Trade Summary: Total trades: 14, Buy volume: 1724.43, Sell volume: 11.00, Average price: 0.7487, Price range: 0.0010 - 0.9990

Output: No


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 570984
Question: Will Trump announce Howard Lutnick to replace Kugler?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 1735.43111
Price History:
2025-08-03 04:00: 0.8300
2025-08-03 05:00: 0.1700
2025-08-03 05:00: 0.8300
2025-08-03 06:00: 0.1150
2025-08-03 06:00: 0.8850
2025-08-03 07:00: 0.0900
2025-08-03 07:00: 0.9100
2025-08-03 08:00: 0.0900
2025-08-03 08:00: 0.9100
2025-08-03 09:00: 0.0950
2025-08-03 09:00: 0.9050
2025-08-03 10:00: 0.0950
2025-08-03 10:00: 0.9050
2025-08-03 11:00: 0.0950
2025-08-03 11:00: 0.9050
2025-08-03 12:00: 0.0950
2025-08-03 12:00: 0.9050
2025-08-03 13:00: 0.0950
2025-08-03 13:00: 0.9050
2025-08-03 14:00: 0.0950
2025-08-03 14:00: 0.9050
2025-08-03 15:00: 0.0950
2025-08-03 15:00: 0.9050
Trade Summary: Total trades: 1, Buy volume: 10.00, Sell volume: 0.00, Average price: 0.9900, Price range: 0.9900 - 0.9900

Output: No


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 570984
Question: Will Trump announce Howard Lutnick to replace Kugler?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 1735.43111
Price History:
2025-08-03 16:00: 0.0950
2025-08-03 16:00: 0.9050
2025-08-03 17:00: 0.0950
2025-08-03 17:00: 0.9050
2025-08-03 18:00: 0.0950
2025-08-03 18:00: 0.9050
2025-08-03 19:00: 0.0950
2025-08-03 19:00: 0.9050
2025-08-03 20:00: 0.0950
2025-08-03 20:00: 0.9050
2025-08-03 21:00: 0.1000
2025-08-03 21:00: 0.9000
2025-08-03 22:00: 0.1000
2025-08-03 22:00: 0.9000
2025-08-03 23:00: 0.1000
2025-08-03 23:00: 0.9000
2025-08-04 00:00: 0.0600
2025-08-04 00:00: 0.9400
2025-08-04 01:00: 0.0600
2025-08-04 01:00: 0.9400
2025-08-04 02:00: 0.0600
2025-08-04 02:00: 0.9400
2025-08-04 03:00: 0.0950
Trade Summary: Total trades: 1, Buy volume: 11.11, Sell volume: 0.00, Average price: 0.1800, Price range: 0.1800 - 0.1800

Output: No


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 570984
Question: Will Trump announce Howard Lutnick to replace Kugler?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 1735.43111
Price History:
2025-08-04 03:00: 0.9050
2025-08-04 04:00: 0.0950
2025-08-04 04:00: 0.9050
2025-08-04 05:00: 0.0950
2025-08-04 05:00: 0.9050
2025-08-04 06:00: 0.0950
2025-08-04 06:00: 0.9050
2025-08-04 07:00: 0.0950
2025-08-04 07:00: 0.9050
2025-08-04 08:00: 0.1000
2025-08-04 08:00: 0.9000
2025-08-04 09:00: 0.1000
2025-08-04 09:00: 0.9000
2025-08-04 10:00: 0.0950
2025-08-04 10:00: 0.9050
2025-08-04 11:00: 0.0950
2025-08-04 11:00: 0.9050
2025-08-04 12:00: 0.0950
2025-08-04 12:00: 0.9050
2025-08-04 13:00: 0.0950
2025-08-04 13:00: 0.9050
2025-08-04 14:00: 0.0950
2025-08-04 14:00: 0.9050
Trade Summary: Total trades: 14, Buy volume: 1724.43, Sell volume: 11.00, Average price: 0.7487, Price range: 0.0010 - 0.9990

Output: No


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 570984
Question: Will Trump announce Howard Lutnick to replace Kugler?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 1735.43111
Price History:
2025-08-04 15:00: 0.0950
2025-08-04 15:00: 0.9050
2025-08-04 16:00: 0.0900
2025-08-04 16:00: 0.9100
2025-08-04 17:00: 0.0550
2025-08-04 17:00: 0.9450
2025-08-04 18:00: 0.0550
2025-08-04 18:00: 0.9450
2025-08-04 19:00: 0.0550
2025-08-04 19:00: 0.9450
2025-08-04 20:00: 0.0500
2025-08-04 20:00: 0.9500
2025-08-04 21:00: 0.0500
2025-08-04 21:00: 0.9500
2025-08-04 22:00: 0.0450
2025-08-04 22:00: 0.9550
2025-08-04 23:00: 0.0500
2025-08-04 23:00: 0.9500
2025-08-05 00:00: 0.0500
2025-08-05 00:00: 0.9500
2025-08-05 01:00: 0.0500
2025-08-05 01:00: 0.9500
2025-08-05 02:00: 0.0500
Trade Summary: Total trades: 1, Buy volume: 21.00, Sell volume: 0.00, Average price: 0.9800, Price range: 0.9800 - 0.9800

Output: No


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 570984
Question: Will Trump announce Howard Lutnick to replace Kugler?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 1735.43111
Price History:
2025-08-05 02:00: 0.9500
2025-08-05 03:00: 0.0500
2025-08-05 03:00: 0.9500
2025-08-05 04:00: 0.0500
2025-08-05 04:00: 0.9500
2025-08-05 05:00: 0.0500
2025-08-05 05:00: 0.9500
2025-08-05 06:00: 0.0500
2025-08-05 06:00: 0.9500
2025-08-05 07:00: 0.0500
2025-08-05 07:00: 0.9500
2025-08-05 08:00: 0.0800
2025-08-05 08:00: 0.9200
2025-08-05 09:00: 0.0400
2025-08-05 09:00: 0.9600
2025-08-05 10:00: 0.0200
2025-08-05 10:00: 0.9800
2025-08-05 11:00: 0.0300
2025-08-05 11:00: 0.9700
2025-08-05 12:00: 0.0450
2025-08-05 12:00: 0.9550
2025-08-05 13:00: 0.0430
2025-08-05 13:00: 0.9570
Trade Summary: Total trades: 3, Buy volume: 32.32, Sell volume: 10.00, Average price: 0.6667, Price range: 0.0200 - 0.9900

Output: No


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 570984
Question: Will Trump announce Howard Lutnick to replace Kugler?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 1735.43111
Price History:
2025-08-05 14:00: 0.0400
2025-08-05 14:00: 0.9600
2025-08-05 15:00: 0.0375
2025-08-05 15:00: 0.9625
2025-08-05 16:00: 0.0345
2025-08-05 16:00: 0.9655
2025-08-05 17:00: 0.0410
2025-08-05 17:00: 0.9590
2025-08-05 18:00: 0.0410
2025-08-05 18:00: 0.9590
2025-08-05 19:00: 0.0410
2025-08-05 19:00: 0.9590
2025-08-05 20:00: 0.0410
2025-08-05 20:00: 0.9590
2025-08-05 21:00: 0.0410
2025-08-05 21:00: 0.9590
2025-08-05 22:00: 0.0410
2025-08-05 22:00: 0.9590
2025-08-05 23:00: 0.0410
2025-08-05 23:00: 0.9590
2025-08-06 00:00: 0.0410
2025-08-06 00:00: 0.9590
2025-08-06 01:00: 0.0410
Trade Summary: Total trades: 14, Buy volume: 1724.43, Sell volume: 11.00, Average price: 0.7487, Price range: 0.0010 - 0.9990

Output: No


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 570984
Question: Will Trump announce Howard Lutnick to replace Kugler?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 1735.43111
Price History:
2025-08-06 01:00: 0.9590
2025-08-06 02:00: 0.0410
2025-08-06 02:00: 0.9590
2025-08-06 03:00: 0.0410
2025-08-06 03:00: 0.9590
2025-08-06 04:00: 0.0410
2025-08-06 04:00: 0.9590
2025-08-06 05:00: 0.0410
2025-08-06 05:00: 0.9590
2025-08-06 06:00: 0.0410
2025-08-06 06:00: 0.9590
2025-08-06 07:00: 0.0410
2025-08-06 07:00: 0.9590
2025-08-06 08:00: 0.0410
2025-08-06 08:00: 0.9590
2025-08-06 09:00: 0.0410
2025-08-06 09:00: 0.9590
2025-08-06 10:00: 0.0410
2025-08-06 10:00: 0.9590
2025-08-06 11:00: 0.0410
2025-08-06 11:00: 0.9590
2025-08-06 12:00: 0.0405
2025-08-06 12:00: 0.9595
Trade Summary: Total trades: 14, Buy volume: 1724.43, Sell volume: 11.00, Average price: 0.7487, Price range: 0.0010 - 0.9990

Output: No


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 570984
Question: Will Trump announce Howard Lutnick to replace Kugler?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 1735.43111
Price History:
2025-08-06 13:00: 0.0405
2025-08-06 13:00: 0.9595
2025-08-06 14:00: 0.0405
2025-08-06 14:00: 0.9595
2025-08-06 15:00: 0.0405
2025-08-06 15:00: 0.9595
2025-08-06 16:00: 0.9595
2025-08-06 16:00: 0.0405
2025-08-06 17:00: 0.0405
2025-08-06 17:00: 0.9595
2025-08-06 18:00: 0.9595
2025-08-06 18:00: 0.0405
2025-08-06 19:00: 0.9595
2025-08-06 19:00: 0.0405
2025-08-06 20:00: 0.0405
2025-08-06 20:00: 0.9595
2025-08-06 21:00: 0.9595
2025-08-06 21:00: 0.0405
2025-08-06 22:00: 0.9595
2025-08-06 22:00: 0.0405
2025-08-06 23:00: 0.0405
2025-08-06 23:00: 0.9595
2025-08-07 00:00: 0.0405
Trade Summary: Total trades: 14, Buy volume: 1724.43, Sell volume: 11.00, Average price: 0.7487, Price range: 0.0010 - 0.9990

Output: No


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 570984
Question: Will Trump announce Howard Lutnick to replace Kugler?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 1735.43111
Price History:
2025-08-07 00:00: 0.9595
2025-08-07 01:00: 0.0405
2025-08-07 01:00: 0.9595
2025-08-07 02:00: 0.0810
2025-08-07 02:00: 0.9190
2025-08-07 03:00: 0.0810
2025-08-07 03:00: 0.9190
2025-08-07 04:00: 0.0810
2025-08-07 04:00: 0.9190
2025-08-07 05:00: 0.9185
2025-08-07 05:00: 0.0815
2025-08-07 06:00: 0.9185
2025-08-07 06:00: 0.0815
2025-08-07 07:00: 0.9190
2025-08-07 07:00: 0.0810
2025-08-07 08:00: 0.9190
2025-08-07 08:00: 0.0810
2025-08-07 09:00: 0.0760
2025-08-07 09:00: 0.9240
2025-08-07 10:00: 0.9235
2025-08-07 10:00: 0.0765
2025-08-07 11:00: 0.0765
2025-08-07 11:00: 0.9235
Trade Summary: Total trades: 14, Buy volume: 1724.43, Sell volume: 11.00, Average price: 0.7487, Price range: 0.0010 - 0.9990

Output: No


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 570984
Question: Will Trump announce Howard Lutnick to replace Kugler?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 1735.43111
Price History:
2025-08-07 12:00: 0.0765
2025-08-07 12:00: 0.9235
2025-08-07 13:00: 0.9235
2025-08-07 13:00: 0.0765
2025-08-07 14:00: 0.9235
2025-08-07 14:00: 0.0765
2025-08-07 15:00: 0.0765
2025-08-07 15:00: 0.9235
2025-08-07 16:00: 0.0670
2025-08-07 16:00: 0.9330
2025-08-07 17:00: 0.9785
2025-08-07 17:00: 0.0215
2025-08-07 18:00: 0.9980
2025-08-07 18:00: 0.0020
2025-08-07 19:00: 0.0020
2025-08-07 19:00: 0.9980
2025-08-07 20:00: 0.9980
2025-08-07 20:00: 0.0020
2025-08-07 21:00: 0.9995
2025-08-07 21:00: 0.0005
2025-08-07 22:00: 0.0005
2025-08-07 22:00: 0.9995
2025-08-07 23:00: 0.9995
Trade Summary: Total trades: 7, Buy volume: 1630.00, Sell volume: 1.00, Average price: 0.8560, Price range: 0.0010 - 0.9990

Output: No


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 501699
Question: Will Republicans have 54 seats in Senate after election?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 1046717.85044
Price History:
2024-05-21 14:00: 0.1100
2024-05-21 20:00: 0.8800
2024-05-22 03:00: 0.1150
2024-05-22 09:00: 0.8850
2024-05-22 16:00: 0.1150
2024-05-22 22:00: 0.8850
2024-05-23 05:00: 0.1100
2024-05-23 11:00: 0.8900
2024-05-23 18:00: 0.1050
2024-05-24 00:00: 0.8950
2024-05-24 07:00: 0.1050
2024-05-24 13:00: 0.8950
2024-05-24 20:00: 0.1100
2024-05-25 02:00: 0.8900
2024-05-25 09:00: 0.1100
2024-05-25 15:00: 0.8900
2024-05-25 22:00: 0.1100
2024-05-26 04:00: 0.8900
2024-05-26 11:00: 0.1100
2024-05-26 17:00: 0.8900
2024-05-27 00:00: 0.1100
2024-05-27 06:00: 0.8900
2024-05-27 13:00: 0.1100
2024-05-27 19:00: 0.8900
2024-05-28 02:00: 0.1100
2024-05-28 08:00: 0.8900
2024-05-28 15:00: 0.1100
2024-05-28 21:00: 0.8950
2024-05-29 04:00: 0.1050
2024-05-29 10:00: 0.8950
2024-05-29 17:00: 0.1050
2024-05-29 23:00: 0.8950
2024-05-30 06:00: 0.1050
2024-05-30 12:00: 0.8950
2024-05-30 19:00: 0.1050
2024-05-31 01:00: 0.8950
2024-05-31 08:00: 0.1050
2024-05-31 14:00: 0.8950
2024-05-31 21:00: 0.1050
2024-06-01 03:00: 0.8950
2024-06-01 10:00: 0.1150
2024-06-01 16:00: 0.8850
2024-06-01 23:00: 0.1150
2024-06-02 05:00: 0.8850
2024-06-02 12:00: 0.1150
2024-06-02 18:00: 0.8850
2024-06-03 01:00: 0.1150
2024-06-03 07:00: 0.8850
2024-06-03 14:00: 0.1150
2024-06-03 20:00: 0.8850
Trade Summary: No trades available

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 501699
Question: Will Republicans have 54 seats in Senate after election?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 1046717.85044
Price History:
2024-06-04 18:00: 0.1150
2024-06-05 00:00: 0.8850
2024-06-05 07:00: 0.1150
2024-06-05 13:00: 0.8850
2024-06-05 20:00: 0.1150
2024-06-06 02:00: 0.8850
2024-06-06 09:00: 0.1150
2024-06-06 15:00: 0.8850
2024-06-06 22:00: 0.1150
2024-06-07 04:00: 0.8850
2024-06-07 11:00: 0.1150
2024-06-07 17:00: 0.8850
2024-06-08 00:00: 0.1150
2024-06-08 06:00: 0.8850
2024-06-08 13:00: 0.1150
2024-06-08 19:00: 0.8850
2024-06-09 02:00: 0.1150
2024-06-09 08:00: 0.8850
2024-06-09 15:00: 0.1150
2024-06-09 21:00: 0.8850
2024-06-10 04:00: 0.1150
2024-06-10 10:00: 0.8850
2024-06-10 17:00: 0.1150
2024-06-10 23:00: 0.8850
2024-06-11 06:00: 0.1150
2024-06-11 12:00: 0.8850
2024-06-11 19:00: 0.1150
2024-06-12 01:00: 0.8850
2024-06-12 08:00: 0.1150
2024-06-12 14:00: 0.8850
2024-06-12 21:00: 0.1150
2024-06-13 03:00: 0.8850
2024-06-13 10:00: 0.1150
2024-06-13 16:00: 0.8850
2024-06-13 23:00: 0.1150
2024-06-14 05:00: 0.8850
2024-06-14 12:00: 0.1150
2024-06-14 18:00: 0.8850
2024-06-15 01:00: 0.1150
2024-06-15 07:00: 0.8850
2024-06-15 14:00: 0.1150
2024-06-15 20:00: 0.8850
2024-06-16 03:00: 0.1150
2024-06-16 09:00: 0.8850
2024-06-16 16:00: 0.1150
2024-06-16 22:00: 0.8850
2024-06-17 05:00: 0.1150
2024-06-17 11:00: 0.8850
2024-06-17 18:00: 0.1150
2024-06-18 00:00: 0.8850
Trade Summary: No trades available

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 501699
Question: Will Republicans have 54 seats in Senate after election?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 1046717.85044
Price History:
2024-06-18 22:00: 0.1150
2024-06-19 04:00: 0.8850
2024-06-19 11:00: 0.1150
2024-06-19 17:00: 0.8850
2024-06-20 00:00: 0.1150
2024-06-20 06:00: 0.8850
2024-06-20 13:00: 0.1150
2024-06-20 19:00: 0.8850
2024-06-21 02:00: 0.1150
2024-06-21 08:00: 0.8850
2024-06-21 15:00: 0.1150
2024-06-21 21:00: 0.8850
2024-06-22 04:00: 0.1150
2024-06-22 10:00: 0.8850
2024-06-22 17:00: 0.1150
2024-06-22 23:00: 0.8850
2024-06-23 06:00: 0.1150
2024-06-23 12:00: 0.8850
2024-06-23 19:00: 0.1150
2024-06-24 01:00: 0.8850
2024-06-24 08:00: 0.1150
2024-06-24 14:00: 0.8850
2024-06-24 21:00: 0.1150
2024-06-25 03:00: 0.8850
2024-06-25 10:00: 0.1150
2024-06-25 16:00: 0.8850
2024-06-25 23:00: 0.1150
2024-06-26 05:00: 0.8850
2024-06-26 12:00: 0.1150
2024-06-26 18:00: 0.8850
2024-06-27 01:00: 0.1150
2024-06-27 07:00: 0.8850
2024-06-27 14:00: 0.1150
2024-06-27 20:00: 0.8850
2024-06-28 03:00: 0.1150
2024-06-28 09:00: 0.8850
2024-06-28 16:00: 0.1150
2024-06-28 22:00: 0.8850
2024-06-29 05:00: 0.1150
2024-06-29 11:00: 0.8850
2024-06-29 18:00: 0.1150
2024-06-30 00:00: 0.8850
2024-06-30 07:00: 0.1150
2024-06-30 13:00: 0.8850
2024-06-30 20:00: 0.1150
2024-07-01 02:00: 0.8850
2024-07-01 09:00: 0.1150
2024-07-01 15:00: 0.8850
2024-07-01 22:00: 0.1150
2024-07-02 04:00: 0.8850
Trade Summary: No trades available

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 501699
Question: Will Republicans have 54 seats in Senate after election?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 1046717.85044
Price History:
2024-07-03 02:00: 0.1150
2024-07-03 08:00: 0.8850
2024-07-03 15:00: 0.1150
2024-07-03 21:00: 0.8850
2024-07-04 04:00: 0.1150
2024-07-04 10:00: 0.8850
2024-07-04 17:00: 0.1150
2024-07-04 23:00: 0.8850
2024-07-05 06:00: 0.1150
2024-07-05 12:00: 0.8850
2024-07-05 19:00: 0.1150
2024-07-06 01:00: 0.8850
2024-07-06 08:00: 0.1150
2024-07-06 14:00: 0.8850
2024-07-06 21:00: 0.1150
2024-07-07 03:00: 0.8850
2024-07-07 10:00: 0.1150
2024-07-07 16:00: 0.8850
2024-07-07 23:00: 0.1150
2024-07-08 05:00: 0.8850
2024-07-08 12:00: 0.1150
2024-07-08 18:00: 0.8850
2024-07-09 01:00: 0.1150
2024-07-09 07:00: 0.8850
2024-07-09 14:00: 0.1150
2024-07-09 20:00: 0.8850
2024-07-10 03:00: 0.1150
2024-07-10 09:00: 0.8850
2024-07-10 16:00: 0.1150
2024-07-10 22:00: 0.8850
2024-07-11 05:00: 0.1150
2024-07-11 11:00: 0.8850
2024-07-11 18:00: 0.1150
2024-07-12 00:00: 0.8850
2024-07-12 07:00: 0.1150
2024-07-12 13:00: 0.8850
2024-07-12 20:00: 0.1150
2024-07-13 02:00: 0.8850
2024-07-13 09:00: 0.1150
2024-07-13 15:00: 0.8850
2024-07-13 22:00: 0.1150
2024-07-14 04:00: 0.8850
2024-07-14 11:00: 0.1150
2024-07-14 17:00: 0.8850
2024-07-15 00:00: 0.1150
2024-07-15 06:00: 0.8850
2024-07-15 13:00: 0.1150
2024-07-15 19:00: 0.8850
2024-07-16 02:00: 0.1150
2024-07-16 08:00: 0.8850
Trade Summary: No trades available

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 501699
Question: Will Republicans have 54 seats in Senate after election?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 1046717.85044
Price History:
2024-07-17 06:00: 0.1150
2024-07-17 12:00: 0.8850
2024-07-17 19:00: 0.1150
2024-07-18 01:00: 0.8850
2024-07-18 08:00: 0.1150
2024-07-18 14:00: 0.8850
2024-07-18 21:00: 0.1150
2024-07-19 03:00: 0.8850
2024-07-19 10:00: 0.1150
2024-07-19 16:00: 0.8850
2024-07-19 23:00: 0.1150
2024-07-20 05:00: 0.8850
2024-07-20 12:00: 0.1150
2024-07-20 18:00: 0.8850
2024-07-21 01:00: 0.1150
2024-07-21 07:00: 0.8850
2024-07-21 15:00: 0.1150
2024-07-21 21:00: 0.8850
2024-07-22 04:00: 0.1150
2024-07-22 10:00: 0.8850
2024-07-22 17:00: 0.1150
2024-07-22 23:00: 0.8850
2024-07-23 06:00: 0.1150
2024-07-23 12:00: 0.8850
2024-07-23 19:00: 0.1150
2024-07-24 01:00: 0.8850
2024-07-24 08:00: 0.1150
2024-07-24 14:00: 0.8850
2024-07-24 21:00: 0.1150
2024-07-25 03:00: 0.8850
2024-07-25 10:00: 0.1150
2024-07-25 16:00: 0.8850
2024-07-25 23:00: 0.1150
2024-07-26 05:00: 0.8850
2024-07-26 12:00: 0.1150
2024-07-26 18:00: 0.8850
2024-07-27 01:00: 0.1100
2024-07-27 07:00: 0.8900
2024-07-27 14:00: 0.1100
2024-07-27 20:00: 0.8900
2024-07-28 03:00: 0.1100
2024-07-28 09:00: 0.8900
2024-07-28 16:00: 0.0950
2024-07-28 22:00: 0.9050
2024-07-29 05:00: 0.0950
2024-07-29 11:00: 0.9050
2024-07-29 18:00: 0.0950
2024-07-30 00:00: 0.9050
2024-07-30 07:00: 0.0950
2024-07-30 13:00: 0.9050
Trade Summary: No trades available

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 501699
Question: Will Republicans have 54 seats in Senate after election?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 1046717.85044
Price History:
2024-07-31 11:00: 0.0950
2024-07-31 17:00: 0.9050
2024-08-01 00:00: 0.0950
2024-08-01 06:00: 0.9350
2024-08-01 13:00: 0.0700
2024-08-01 19:00: 0.9300
2024-08-02 02:00: 0.0700
2024-08-02 08:00: 0.9300
2024-08-02 15:00: 0.0700
2024-08-02 21:00: 0.9300
2024-08-03 04:00: 0.0700
2024-08-03 10:00: 0.9300
2024-08-03 17:00: 0.0700
2024-08-03 23:00: 0.9300
2024-08-04 06:00: 0.0700
2024-08-04 12:00: 0.9300
2024-08-04 19:00: 0.0700
2024-08-05 01:00: 0.9300
2024-08-05 08:00: 0.0700
2024-08-05 14:00: 0.9300
2024-08-05 21:00: 0.0700
2024-08-06 03:00: 0.9300
2024-08-06 10:00: 0.0700
2024-08-06 16:00: 0.9300
2024-08-06 23:00: 0.0700
2024-08-07 05:00: 0.9300
2024-08-07 12:00: 0.0700
2024-08-07 18:00: 0.9300
2024-08-08 01:00: 0.0700
2024-08-08 07:00: 0.9300
2024-08-08 14:00: 0.0700
2024-08-08 20:00: 0.9300
2024-08-09 03:00: 0.0700
2024-08-09 09:00: 0.9300
2024-08-09 16:00: 0.0650
2024-08-09 22:00: 0.9350
2024-08-10 05:00: 0.0650
2024-08-10 11:00: 0.9450
2024-08-10 18:00: 0.0550
2024-08-11 00:00: 0.9450
2024-08-11 07:00: 0.0550
2024-08-11 13:00: 0.9450
2024-08-11 20:00: 0.0550
2024-08-12 02:00: 0.9450
2024-08-12 09:00: 0.0550
2024-08-12 15:00: 0.9450
2024-08-12 22:00: 0.0550
2024-08-13 04:00: 0.9450
2024-08-13 11:00: 0.0550
2024-08-13 17:00: 0.9550
Trade Summary: No trades available

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 501699
Question: Will Republicans have 54 seats in Senate after election?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 1046717.85044
Price History:
2024-08-14 15:00: 0.0450
2024-08-14 21:00: 0.9550
2024-08-15 04:00: 0.0450
2024-08-15 10:00: 0.9550
2024-08-15 17:00: 0.0400
2024-08-15 23:00: 0.9650
2024-08-16 06:00: 0.0350
2024-08-16 12:00: 0.9640
2024-08-16 19:00: 0.0350
2024-08-17 01:00: 0.9655
2024-08-17 08:00: 0.0395
2024-08-17 14:00: 0.9630
2024-08-17 21:00: 0.0370
2024-08-18 03:00: 0.9630
2024-08-18 10:00: 0.0370
2024-08-18 16:00: 0.9630
2024-08-18 23:00: 0.0360
2024-08-19 05:00: 0.9640
2024-08-19 12:00: 0.0360
2024-08-19 18:00: 0.9630
2024-08-20 01:00: 0.0365
2024-08-20 07:00: 0.9635
2024-08-20 14:00: 0.0380
2024-08-20 20:00: 0.9610
2024-08-21 03:00: 0.0365
2024-08-21 09:00: 0.9625
2024-08-21 16:00: 0.0375
2024-08-21 22:00: 0.9620
2024-08-22 05:00: 0.0375
2024-08-22 11:00: 0.9620
2024-08-22 18:00: 0.0380
2024-08-23 00:00: 0.9630
2024-08-23 07:00: 0.0370
2024-08-23 13:00: 0.9625
2024-08-23 20:00: 0.0375
2024-08-24 02:00: 0.9620
2024-08-24 09:00: 0.0365
2024-08-24 15:00: 0.9630
2024-08-24 22:00: 0.0370
2024-08-25 04:00: 0.9635
2024-08-25 11:00: 0.0365
2024-08-25 17:00: 0.9630
2024-08-26 00:00: 0.0375
2024-08-26 06:00: 0.9635
2024-08-26 13:00: 0.0365
2024-08-26 19:00: 0.9625
2024-08-27 02:00: 0.0360
2024-08-27 08:00: 0.9665
2024-08-27 15:00: 0.0335
2024-08-27 21:00: 0.9665
Trade Summary: No trades available

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 501699
Question: Will Republicans have 54 seats in Senate after election?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 1046717.85044
Price History:
2024-08-28 19:00: 0.0225
2024-08-29 01:00: 0.9775
2024-08-29 08:00: 0.0275
2024-08-29 14:00: 0.9720
2024-08-29 21:00: 0.0280
2024-08-30 03:00: 0.9725
2024-08-30 10:00: 0.0275
2024-08-30 16:00: 0.9715
2024-08-30 23:00: 0.0285
2024-08-31 05:00: 0.9715
2024-08-31 12:00: 0.0280
2024-08-31 18:00: 0.9715
2024-09-01 01:00: 0.0285
2024-09-01 07:00: 0.9715
2024-09-01 14:00: 0.0285
2024-09-01 20:00: 0.9715
2024-09-02 03:00: 0.0285
2024-09-02 09:00: 0.9715
2024-09-02 16:00: 0.0280
2024-09-02 22:00: 0.9720
2024-09-03 05:00: 0.0285
2024-09-03 11:00: 0.9715
2024-09-03 18:00: 0.0270
2024-09-04 00:00: 0.9730
2024-09-04 07:00: 0.0270
2024-09-04 13:00: 0.9730
2024-09-04 20:00: 0.0270
2024-09-05 02:00: 0.9730
2024-09-05 09:00: 0.0320
2024-09-05 15:00: 0.9725
2024-09-05 22:00: 0.0275
2024-09-06 04:00: 0.9730
2024-09-06 11:00: 0.0270
2024-09-06 17:00: 0.9720
2024-09-07 00:00: 0.0295
2024-09-07 06:00: 0.9705
2024-09-07 13:00: 0.0300
2024-09-07 19:00: 0.9700
2024-09-08 02:00: 0.0300
2024-09-08 08:00: 0.9700
2024-09-08 15:00: 0.0300
2024-09-08 21:00: 0.9695
2024-09-09 04:00: 0.0315
2024-09-09 10:00: 0.9680
2024-09-09 17:00: 0.0305
2024-09-09 23:00: 0.9670
2024-09-10 06:00: 0.0370
2024-09-10 12:00: 0.9615
2024-09-10 19:00: 0.0385
2024-09-11 01:00: 0.9610
Trade Summary: No trades available

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 501699
Question: Will Republicans have 54 seats in Senate after election?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 1046717.85044
Price History:
2024-09-11 23:00: 0.0390
2024-09-12 05:00: 0.9605
2024-09-12 12:00: 0.0400
2024-09-12 18:00: 0.9575
2024-09-13 01:00: 0.0445
2024-09-13 07:00: 0.9555
2024-09-13 14:00: 0.0445
2024-09-13 20:00: 0.9555
2024-09-14 03:00: 0.0440
2024-09-14 09:00: 0.9555
2024-09-14 16:00: 0.0445
2024-09-14 22:00: 0.9555
2024-09-15 05:00: 0.0440
2024-09-15 11:00: 0.9555
2024-09-15 18:00: 0.0450
2024-09-16 00:00: 0.9550
2024-09-16 07:00: 0.0450
2024-09-16 13:00: 0.9550
2024-09-16 20:00: 0.0450
2024-09-17 02:00: 0.9555
2024-09-17 09:00: 0.0445
2024-09-17 15:00: 0.9545
2024-09-17 22:00: 0.0455
2024-09-18 04:00: 0.9545
2024-09-18 11:00: 0.0455
2024-09-18 17:00: 0.9545
2024-09-19 00:00: 0.0450
2024-09-19 06:00: 0.9550
2024-09-19 13:00: 0.0460
2024-09-19 19:00: 0.9540
2024-09-20 02:00: 0.0460
2024-09-20 08:00: 0.9540
2024-09-20 15:00: 0.0455
2024-09-20 21:00: 0.9545
2024-09-21 04:00: 0.0455
2024-09-21 10:00: 0.9545
2024-09-21 17:00: 0.0455
2024-09-21 23:00: 0.9545
2024-09-22 06:00: 0.0455
2024-09-22 12:00: 0.9560
2024-09-22 19:00: 0.0440
2024-09-23 01:00: 0.9565
2024-09-23 08:00: 0.0405
2024-09-23 14:00: 0.9595
2024-09-23 21:00: 0.0365
2024-09-24 03:00: 0.9610
2024-09-24 10:00: 0.0385
2024-09-24 16:00: 0.9635
2024-09-24 23:00: 0.0385
2024-09-25 05:00: 0.9620
Trade Summary: No trades available

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 501699
Question: Will Republicans have 54 seats in Senate after election?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 1046717.85044
Price History:
2024-09-26 03:00: 0.0385
2024-09-26 09:00: 0.9610
2024-09-26 16:00: 0.0390
2024-09-26 22:00: 0.9610
2024-09-27 05:00: 0.0385
2024-09-27 11:00: 0.9620
2024-09-27 18:00: 0.0375
2024-09-28 00:00: 0.9630
2024-09-28 07:00: 0.0365
2024-09-28 13:00: 0.9635
2024-09-28 20:00: 0.0355
2024-09-29 02:00: 0.9645
2024-09-29 09:00: 0.0405
2024-09-29 15:00: 0.9580
2024-09-29 22:00: 0.0430
2024-09-30 04:00: 0.9570
2024-09-30 11:00: 0.0435
2024-09-30 17:00: 0.9540
2024-10-01 00:00: 0.0475
2024-10-01 06:00: 0.9540
2024-10-01 13:00: 0.0475
2024-10-01 19:00: 0.9530
2024-10-02 02:00: 0.0485
2024-10-02 08:00: 0.9515
2024-10-02 14:00: 0.0485
2024-10-02 20:00: 0.9595
2024-10-03 03:00: 0.0450
2024-10-03 09:00: 0.9530
2024-10-03 16:00: 0.0475
2024-10-03 22:00: 0.9515
2024-10-04 05:00: 0.0505
2024-10-04 11:00: 0.9505
2024-10-04 18:00: 0.0505
2024-10-05 00:00: 0.9490
2024-10-05 07:00: 0.0520
2024-10-05 13:00: 0.9485
2024-10-05 20:00: 0.0555
2024-10-06 02:00: 0.9450
2024-10-06 09:00: 0.0505
2024-10-06 15:00: 0.9470
2024-10-06 22:00: 0.0525
2024-10-07 04:00: 0.9510
2024-10-07 11:00: 0.0490
2024-10-07 17:00: 0.9500
2024-10-08 00:00: 0.0505
2024-10-08 06:00: 0.9495
2024-10-08 13:00: 0.0490
2024-10-08 19:00: 0.9515
2024-10-09 02:00: 0.0505
2024-10-09 08:00: 0.9495
Trade Summary: No trades available

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 501699
Question: Will Republicans have 54 seats in Senate after election?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 1046717.85044
Price History:
2024-10-10 06:00: 0.0480
2024-10-10 12:00: 0.9530
2024-10-10 19:00: 0.0470
2024-10-11 01:00: 0.9500
2024-10-11 08:00: 0.0490
2024-10-11 14:00: 0.9460
2024-10-11 21:00: 0.0560
2024-10-12 03:00: 0.9445
2024-10-12 10:00: 0.0550
2024-10-12 16:00: 0.9475
2024-10-12 23:00: 0.0530
2024-10-13 05:00: 0.9450
2024-10-13 12:00: 0.0495
2024-10-13 18:00: 0.9535
2024-10-14 01:00: 0.0490
2024-10-14 07:00: 0.9520
2024-10-14 14:00: 0.0505
2024-10-14 20:00: 0.9445
2024-10-15 03:00: 0.0525
2024-10-15 09:00: 0.9515
2024-10-15 16:00: 0.0490
2024-10-15 22:00: 0.9510
2024-10-16 05:00: 0.0500
2024-10-16 11:00: 0.9505
2024-10-16 18:00: 0.0490
2024-10-17 00:00: 0.9460
2024-10-17 07:00: 0.0550
2024-10-17 13:00: 0.9430
2024-10-17 20:00: 0.0575
2024-10-18 02:00: 0.9375
2024-10-18 09:00: 0.0645
2024-10-18 15:00: 0.9350
2024-10-18 22:00: 0.0695
2024-10-19 04:00: 0.9300
2024-10-19 11:00: 0.0690
2024-10-19 17:00: 0.9290
2024-10-20 00:00: 0.0725
2024-10-20 06:00: 0.9275
2024-10-20 13:00: 0.0735
2024-10-20 19:00: 0.9245
2024-10-21 02:00: 0.1145
2024-10-21 08:00: 0.8910
2024-10-21 15:00: 0.1050
2024-10-21 21:00: 0.8825
2024-10-22 04:00: 0.1135
2024-10-22 10:00: 0.8770
2024-10-22 17:00: 0.1220
2024-10-22 23:00: 0.8830
2024-10-23 06:00: 0.1170
2024-10-23 12:00: 0.8825
Trade Summary: No trades available

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 501699
Question: Will Republicans have 54 seats in Senate after election?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 1046717.85044
Price History:
2024-10-24 10:00: 0.1175
2024-10-24 16:00: 0.8820
2024-10-24 23:00: 0.1170
2024-10-25 05:00: 0.8830
2024-10-25 12:00: 0.1190
2024-10-25 18:00: 0.8810
2024-10-26 01:00: 0.1205
2024-10-26 07:00: 0.8810
2024-10-26 14:00: 0.1190
2024-10-26 20:00: 0.8765
2024-10-27 03:00: 0.1215
2024-10-27 09:00: 0.8785
2024-10-27 16:00: 0.1185
2024-10-27 22:00: 0.8815
2024-10-28 05:00: 0.1185
2024-10-28 11:00: 0.8815
2024-10-28 18:00: 0.1185
2024-10-29 00:00: 0.8775
2024-10-29 07:00: 0.1310
2024-10-29 13:00: 0.8700
2024-10-29 20:00: 0.1275
2024-10-30 02:00: 0.8720
2024-10-30 09:00: 0.1280
2024-10-30 15:00: 0.8715
2024-10-30 22:00: 0.1270
2024-10-31 04:00: 0.8720
2024-10-31 11:00: 0.1335
2024-10-31 17:00: 0.8705
2024-11-01 00:00: 0.1300
2024-11-01 06:00: 0.8700
2024-11-01 13:00: 0.1300
2024-11-01 19:00: 0.8805
2024-11-02 02:00: 0.1205
2024-11-02 08:00: 0.8770
2024-11-02 15:00: 0.1220
2024-11-02 21:00: 0.8805
2024-11-03 03:00: 0.1145
2024-11-03 09:00: 0.8850
2024-11-03 16:00: 0.1200
2024-11-03 22:00: 0.8730
2024-11-04 05:00: 0.1300
2024-11-04 11:00: 0.8860
2024-11-04 18:00: 0.1190
2024-11-05 00:00: 0.8870
2024-11-05 07:00: 0.1350
2024-11-05 13:00: 0.8445
2024-11-05 21:00: 0.1855
2024-11-06 03:00: 0.8700
2024-11-06 10:00: 0.3450
2024-11-06 16:00: 0.3930
Trade Summary: No trades available

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 501699
Question: Will Republicans have 54 seats in Senate after election?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 1046717.85044
Price History:
2024-11-07 14:00: 0.0615
2024-11-07 20:00: 0.9495
2024-11-08 03:00: 0.1205
2024-11-08 09:00: 0.9035
2024-11-08 16:00: 0.1370
2024-11-08 22:00: 0.8765
2024-11-09 05:00: 0.1010
2024-11-09 11:00: 0.8990
2024-11-09 18:00: 0.0505
2024-11-10 00:00: 0.9840
2024-11-10 07:00: 0.0050
2024-11-10 13:00: 0.9945
2024-11-10 20:00: 0.0035
2024-11-11 02:00: 0.9975
2024-11-11 09:00: 0.0025
2024-11-11 15:00: 0.9975
2024-11-11 22:00: 0.0015
2024-11-12 04:00: 0.9960
2024-11-12 11:00: 0.0025
2024-11-12 17:00: 0.9975
2024-11-13 00:00: 0.0015
2024-11-13 06:00: 0.9985
2024-11-13 13:00: 0.0045
2024-11-13 19:00: 0.9945
2024-11-14 02:00: 0.0055
2024-11-14 08:00: 0.9945
2024-11-14 15:00: 0.0040
2024-11-14 21:00: 0.9960
2024-11-15 04:00: 0.0030
2024-11-15 10:00: 0.9970
2024-11-15 17:00: 0.0030
2024-11-15 23:00: 0.9955
2024-11-16 06:00: 0.0035
2024-11-16 12:00: 0.9985
2024-11-16 19:00: 0.0015
2024-11-17 01:00: 0.9985
2024-11-17 08:00: 0.0015
2024-11-17 14:00: 0.9975
2024-11-17 21:00: 0.0020
2024-11-18 03:00: 0.9980
2024-11-18 10:00: 0.0025
2024-11-18 16:00: 0.9975
2024-11-18 23:00: 0.0020
2024-11-19 05:00: 0.9980
2024-11-19 12:00: 0.0020
2024-11-19 18:00: 0.9985
2024-11-20 01:00: 0.0020
2024-11-20 07:00: 0.9980
2024-11-20 14:00: 0.0020
2024-11-20 20:00: 0.9980
Trade Summary: No trades available

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 570984
Question: Will Trump announce Howard Lutnick to replace Kugler?
Volume: 1735.43111
Price History:
2025-08-01 18:00: 0.5000
2025-08-01 18:00: 0.5000
2025-08-01 19:00: 0.1750
2025-08-01 19:00: 0.8250
2025-08-01 20:00: 0.1750
2025-08-01 20:00: 0.8250
2025-08-01 21:00: 0.1700
2025-08-01 21:00: 0.8300
2025-08-01 22:00: 0.1700
2025-08-01 22:00: 0.8300
2025-08-01 23:00: 0.1700
2025-08-01 23:00: 0.8300
2025-08-02 00:00: 0.1750
2025-08-02 00:00: 0.8250
2025-08-02 01:00: 0.1750
2025-08-02 01:00: 0.8250
2025-08-02 02:00: 0.1750
2025-08-02 02:00: 0.8250
2025-08-02 03:00: 0.1750
2025-08-02 03:00: 0.8250
2025-08-02 04:00: 0.1700
2025-08-02 04:00: 0.8300
2025-08-02 05:00: 0.1700
Trade Summary: Total trades: 1, Buy volume: 20.00, Sell volume: 0.00, Average price: 0.3400, Price range: 0.3400 - 0.3400
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 570984
Question: Will Trump announce Howard Lutnick to replace Kugler?
Volume: 1735.43111
Price History:
2025-08-02 05:00: 0.8300
2025-08-02 06:00: 0.1700
2025-08-02 06:00: 0.8300
2025-08-02 07:00: 0.1700
2025-08-02 07:00: 0.8300
2025-08-02 08:00: 0.1700
2025-08-02 08:00: 0.8300
2025-08-02 09:00: 0.1600
2025-08-02 09:00: 0.8400
2025-08-02 10:00: 0.1600
2025-08-02 10:00: 0.8400
2025-08-02 11:00: 0.1600
2025-08-02 11:00: 0.8400
2025-08-02 12:00: 0.1700
2025-08-02 12:00: 0.8300
2025-08-02 13:00: 0.1700
2025-08-02 13:00: 0.8300
2025-08-02 14:00: 0.1700
2025-08-02 14:00: 0.8300
2025-08-02 15:00: 0.1700
2025-08-02 15:00: 0.8300
2025-08-02 16:00: 0.1700
2025-08-02 16:00: 0.8300
Trade Summary: Total trades: 14, Buy volume: 1724.43, Sell volume: 11.00, Average price: 0.7487, Price range: 0.0010 - 0.9990
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 570984
Question: Will Trump announce Howard Lutnick to replace Kugler?
Volume: 1735.43111
Price History:
2025-08-02 17:00: 0.1700
2025-08-02 17:00: 0.8300
2025-08-02 18:00: 0.1700
2025-08-02 18:00: 0.8300
2025-08-02 19:00: 0.1700
2025-08-02 19:00: 0.8300
2025-08-02 20:00: 0.1700
2025-08-02 20:00: 0.8300
2025-08-02 21:00: 0.1700
2025-08-02 21:00: 0.8300
2025-08-02 22:00: 0.1700
2025-08-02 22:00: 0.8300
2025-08-02 23:00: 0.1700
2025-08-02 23:00: 0.8300
2025-08-03 00:00: 0.1700
2025-08-03 00:00: 0.8300
2025-08-03 01:00: 0.1700
2025-08-03 01:00: 0.8300
2025-08-03 02:00: 0.1700
2025-08-03 02:00: 0.8300
2025-08-03 03:00: 0.1700
2025-08-03 03:00: 0.8300
2025-08-03 04:00: 0.1700
Trade Summary: Total trades: 14, Buy volume: 1724.43, Sell volume: 11.00, Average price: 0.7487, Price range: 0.0010 - 0.9990
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 570984
Question: Will Trump announce Howard Lutnick to replace Kugler?
Volume: 1735.43111
Price History:
2025-08-03 04:00: 0.8300
2025-08-03 05:00: 0.1700
2025-08-03 05:00: 0.8300
2025-08-03 06:00: 0.1150
2025-08-03 06:00: 0.8850
2025-08-03 07:00: 0.0900
2025-08-03 07:00: 0.9100
2025-08-03 08:00: 0.0900
2025-08-03 08:00: 0.9100
2025-08-03 09:00: 0.0950
2025-08-03 09:00: 0.9050
2025-08-03 10:00: 0.0950
2025-08-03 10:00: 0.9050
2025-08-03 11:00: 0.0950
2025-08-03 11:00: 0.9050
2025-08-03 12:00: 0.0950
2025-08-03 12:00: 0.9050
2025-08-03 13:00: 0.0950
2025-08-03 13:00: 0.9050
2025-08-03 14:00: 0.0950
2025-08-03 14:00: 0.9050
2025-08-03 15:00: 0.0950
2025-08-03 15:00: 0.9050
Trade Summary: Total trades: 1, Buy volume: 10.00, Sell volume: 0.00, Average price: 0.9900, Price range: 0.9900 - 0.9900
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 570984
Question: Will Trump announce Howard Lutnick to replace Kugler?
Volume: 1735.43111
Price History:
2025-08-03 16:00: 0.0950
2025-08-03 16:00: 0.9050
2025-08-03 17:00: 0.0950
2025-08-03 17:00: 0.9050
2025-08-03 18:00: 0.0950
2025-08-03 18:00: 0.9050
2025-08-03 19:00: 0.0950
2025-08-03 19:00: 0.9050
2025-08-03 20:00: 0.0950
2025-08-03 20:00: 0.9050
2025-08-03 21:00: 0.1000
2025-08-03 21:00: 0.9000
2025-08-03 22:00: 0.1000
2025-08-03 22:00: 0.9000
2025-08-03 23:00: 0.1000
2025-08-03 23:00: 0.9000
2025-08-04 00:00: 0.0600
2025-08-04 00:00: 0.9400
2025-08-04 01:00: 0.0600
2025-08-04 01:00: 0.9400
2025-08-04 02:00: 0.0600
2025-08-04 02:00: 0.9400
2025-08-04 03:00: 0.0950
Trade Summary: Total trades: 1, Buy volume: 11.11, Sell volume: 0.00, Average price: 0.1800, Price range: 0.1800 - 0.1800
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 570984
Question: Will Trump announce Howard Lutnick to replace Kugler?
Volume: 1735.43111
Price History:
2025-08-04 03:00: 0.9050
2025-08-04 04:00: 0.0950
2025-08-04 04:00: 0.9050
2025-08-04 05:00: 0.0950
2025-08-04 05:00: 0.9050
2025-08-04 06:00: 0.0950
2025-08-04 06:00: 0.9050
2025-08-04 07:00: 0.0950
2025-08-04 07:00: 0.9050
2025-08-04 08:00: 0.1000
2025-08-04 08:00: 0.9000
2025-08-04 09:00: 0.1000
2025-08-04 09:00: 0.9000
2025-08-04 10:00: 0.0950
2025-08-04 10:00: 0.9050
2025-08-04 11:00: 0.0950
2025-08-04 11:00: 0.9050
2025-08-04 12:00: 0.0950
2025-08-04 12:00: 0.9050
2025-08-04 13:00: 0.0950
2025-08-04 13:00: 0.9050
2025-08-04 14:00: 0.0950
2025-08-04 14:00: 0.9050
Trade Summary: Total trades: 14, Buy volume: 1724.43, Sell volume: 11.00, Average price: 0.7487, Price range: 0.0010 - 0.9990
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 570984
Question: Will Trump announce Howard Lutnick to replace Kugler?
Volume: 1735.43111
Price History:
2025-08-04 15:00: 0.0950
2025-08-04 15:00: 0.9050
2025-08-04 16:00: 0.0900
2025-08-04 16:00: 0.9100
2025-08-04 17:00: 0.0550
2025-08-04 17:00: 0.9450
2025-08-04 18:00: 0.0550
2025-08-04 18:00: 0.9450
2025-08-04 19:00: 0.0550
2025-08-04 19:00: 0.9450
2025-08-04 20:00: 0.0500
2025-08-04 20:00: 0.9500
2025-08-04 21:00: 0.0500
2025-08-04 21:00: 0.9500
2025-08-04 22:00: 0.0450
2025-08-04 22:00: 0.9550
2025-08-04 23:00: 0.0500
2025-08-04 23:00: 0.9500
2025-08-05 00:00: 0.0500
2025-08-05 00:00: 0.9500
2025-08-05 01:00: 0.0500
2025-08-05 01:00: 0.9500
2025-08-05 02:00: 0.0500
Trade Summary: Total trades: 1, Buy volume: 21.00, Sell volume: 0.00, Average price: 0.9800, Price range: 0.9800 - 0.9800
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 570984
Question: Will Trump announce Howard Lutnick to replace Kugler?
Volume: 1735.43111
Price History:
2025-08-05 02:00: 0.9500
2025-08-05 03:00: 0.0500
2025-08-05 03:00: 0.9500
2025-08-05 04:00: 0.0500
2025-08-05 04:00: 0.9500
2025-08-05 05:00: 0.0500
2025-08-05 05:00: 0.9500
2025-08-05 06:00: 0.0500
2025-08-05 06:00: 0.9500
2025-08-05 07:00: 0.0500
2025-08-05 07:00: 0.9500
2025-08-05 08:00: 0.0800
2025-08-05 08:00: 0.9200
2025-08-05 09:00: 0.0400
2025-08-05 09:00: 0.9600
2025-08-05 10:00: 0.0200
2025-08-05 10:00: 0.9800
2025-08-05 11:00: 0.0300
2025-08-05 11:00: 0.9700
2025-08-05 12:00: 0.0450
2025-08-05 12:00: 0.9550
2025-08-05 13:00: 0.0430
2025-08-05 13:00: 0.9570
Trade Summary: Total trades: 3, Buy volume: 32.32, Sell volume: 10.00, Average price: 0.6667, Price range: 0.0200 - 0.9900
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 570984
Question: Will Trump announce Howard Lutnick to replace Kugler?
Volume: 1735.43111
Price History:
2025-08-05 14:00: 0.0400
2025-08-05 14:00: 0.9600
2025-08-05 15:00: 0.0375
2025-08-05 15:00: 0.9625
2025-08-05 16:00: 0.0345
2025-08-05 16:00: 0.9655
2025-08-05 17:00: 0.0410
2025-08-05 17:00: 0.9590
2025-08-05 18:00: 0.0410
2025-08-05 18:00: 0.9590
2025-08-05 19:00: 0.0410
2025-08-05 19:00: 0.9590
2025-08-05 20:00: 0.0410
2025-08-05 20:00: 0.9590
2025-08-05 21:00: 0.0410
2025-08-05 21:00: 0.9590
2025-08-05 22:00: 0.0410
2025-08-05 22:00: 0.9590
2025-08-05 23:00: 0.0410
2025-08-05 23:00: 0.9590
2025-08-06 00:00: 0.0410
2025-08-06 00:00: 0.9590
2025-08-06 01:00: 0.0410
Trade Summary: Total trades: 14, Buy volume: 1724.43, Sell volume: 11.00, Average price: 0.7487, Price range: 0.0010 - 0.9990
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 570984
Question: Will Trump announce Howard Lutnick to replace Kugler?
Volume: 1735.43111
Price History:
2025-08-06 01:00: 0.9590
2025-08-06 02:00: 0.0410
2025-08-06 02:00: 0.9590
2025-08-06 03:00: 0.0410
2025-08-06 03:00: 0.9590
2025-08-06 04:00: 0.0410
2025-08-06 04:00: 0.9590
2025-08-06 05:00: 0.0410
2025-08-06 05:00: 0.9590
2025-08-06 06:00: 0.0410
2025-08-06 06:00: 0.9590
2025-08-06 07:00: 0.0410
2025-08-06 07:00: 0.9590
2025-08-06 08:00: 0.0410
2025-08-06 08:00: 0.9590
2025-08-06 09:00: 0.0410
2025-08-06 09:00: 0.9590
2025-08-06 10:00: 0.0410
2025-08-06 10:00: 0.9590
2025-08-06 11:00: 0.0410
2025-08-06 11:00: 0.9590
2025-08-06 12:00: 0.0405
2025-08-06 12:00: 0.9595
Trade Summary: Total trades: 14, Buy volume: 1724.43, Sell volume: 11.00, Average price: 0.7487, Price range: 0.0010 - 0.9990
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 570984
Question: Will Trump announce Howard Lutnick to replace Kugler?
Volume: 1735.43111
Price History:
2025-08-06 13:00: 0.0405
2025-08-06 13:00: 0.9595
2025-08-06 14:00: 0.0405
2025-08-06 14:00: 0.9595
2025-08-06 15:00: 0.0405
2025-08-06 15:00: 0.9595
2025-08-06 16:00: 0.9595
2025-08-06 16:00: 0.0405
2025-08-06 17:00: 0.0405
2025-08-06 17:00: 0.9595
2025-08-06 18:00: 0.9595
2025-08-06 18:00: 0.0405
2025-08-06 19:00: 0.9595
2025-08-06 19:00: 0.0405
2025-08-06 20:00: 0.0405
2025-08-06 20:00: 0.9595
2025-08-06 21:00: 0.9595
2025-08-06 21:00: 0.0405
2025-08-06 22:00: 0.9595
2025-08-06 22:00: 0.0405
2025-08-06 23:00: 0.0405
2025-08-06 23:00: 0.9595
2025-08-07 00:00: 0.0405
Trade Summary: Total trades: 14, Buy volume: 1724.43, Sell volume: 11.00, Average price: 0.7487, Price range: 0.0010 - 0.9990
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 570984
Question: Will Trump announce Howard Lutnick to replace Kugler?
Volume: 1735.43111
Price History:
2025-08-07 00:00: 0.9595
2025-08-07 01:00: 0.0405
2025-08-07 01:00: 0.9595
2025-08-07 02:00: 0.0810
2025-08-07 02:00: 0.9190
2025-08-07 03:00: 0.0810
2025-08-07 03:00: 0.9190
2025-08-07 04:00: 0.0810
2025-08-07 04:00: 0.9190
2025-08-07 05:00: 0.9185
2025-08-07 05:00: 0.0815
2025-08-07 06:00: 0.9185
2025-08-07 06:00: 0.0815
2025-08-07 07:00: 0.9190
2025-08-07 07:00: 0.0810
2025-08-07 08:00: 0.9190
2025-08-07 08:00: 0.0810
2025-08-07 09:00: 0.0760
2025-08-07 09:00: 0.9240
2025-08-07 10:00: 0.9235
2025-08-07 10:00: 0.0765
2025-08-07 11:00: 0.0765
2025-08-07 11:00: 0.9235
Trade Summary: Total trades: 14, Buy volume: 1724.43, Sell volume: 11.00, Average price: 0.7487, Price range: 0.0010 - 0.9990
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 570984
Question: Will Trump announce Howard Lutnick to replace Kugler?
Volume: 1735.43111
Price History:
2025-08-07 12:00: 0.0765
2025-08-07 12:00: 0.9235
2025-08-07 13:00: 0.9235
2025-08-07 13:00: 0.0765
2025-08-07 14:00: 0.9235
2025-08-07 14:00: 0.0765
2025-08-07 15:00: 0.0765
2025-08-07 15:00: 0.9235
2025-08-07 16:00: 0.0670
2025-08-07 16:00: 0.9330
2025-08-07 17:00: 0.9785
2025-08-07 17:00: 0.0215
2025-08-07 18:00: 0.9980
2025-08-07 18:00: 0.0020
2025-08-07 19:00: 0.0020
2025-08-07 19:00: 0.9980
2025-08-07 20:00: 0.9980
2025-08-07 20:00: 0.0020
2025-08-07 21:00: 0.9995
2025-08-07 21:00: 0.0005
2025-08-07 22:00: 0.0005
2025-08-07 22:00: 0.9995
2025-08-07 23:00: 0.9995
Trade Summary: Total trades: 7, Buy volume: 1630.00, Sell volume: 1.00, Average price: 0.8560, Price range: 0.0010 - 0.9990
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 501699
Question: Will Republicans have 54 seats in Senate after election?
Volume: 1046717.85044
Price History:
2024-05-21 14:00: 0.1100
2024-05-22 01:00: 0.1150
2024-05-22 12:00: 0.1150
2024-05-22 23:00: 0.1150
2024-05-23 10:00: 0.1100
2024-05-23 21:00: 0.1050
2024-05-24 08:00: 0.1050
2024-05-24 19:00: 0.1100
2024-05-25 06:00: 0.1100
2024-05-25 17:00: 0.1100
2024-05-26 04:00: 0.1100
2024-05-26 15:00: 0.1100
2024-05-27 02:00: 0.1100
2024-05-27 13:00: 0.1100
2024-05-28 00:00: 0.1100
2024-05-28 11:00: 0.1100
2024-05-28 22:00: 0.1050
2024-05-29 09:00: 0.1050
2024-05-29 20:00: 0.1050
2024-05-30 07:00: 0.1050
2024-05-30 18:00: 0.1050
2024-05-31 05:00: 0.1050
2024-05-31 16:00: 0.1050
2024-06-01 03:00: 0.1050
2024-06-01 14:00: 0.1150
2024-06-02 01:00: 0.1150
2024-06-02 12:00: 0.1150
2024-06-02 23:00: 0.1150
2024-06-03 10:00: 0.1150
2024-06-03 21:00: 0.1150
Trade Summary: No trades available
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 501699
Question: Will Republicans have 54 seats in Senate after election?
Volume: 1046717.85044
Price History:
2024-06-04 18:00: 0.1150
2024-06-05 05:00: 0.1150
2024-06-05 16:00: 0.1150
2024-06-06 03:00: 0.1150
2024-06-06 14:00: 0.1150
2024-06-07 01:00: 0.1150
2024-06-07 12:00: 0.1150
2024-06-07 23:00: 0.1150
2024-06-08 10:00: 0.1150
2024-06-08 21:00: 0.1150
2024-06-09 08:00: 0.1150
2024-06-09 19:00: 0.1150
2024-06-10 06:00: 0.1150
2024-06-10 17:00: 0.1150
2024-06-11 04:00: 0.1150
2024-06-11 15:00: 0.1150
2024-06-12 02:00: 0.1150
2024-06-12 13:00: 0.1150
2024-06-13 00:00: 0.1150
2024-06-13 11:00: 0.1150
2024-06-13 22:00: 0.1150
2024-06-14 09:00: 0.1150
2024-06-14 20:00: 0.1150
2024-06-15 07:00: 0.1150
2024-06-15 18:00: 0.1150
2024-06-16 05:00: 0.1150
2024-06-16 16:00: 0.1150
2024-06-17 03:00: 0.1150
2024-06-17 14:00: 0.1150
2024-06-18 01:00: 0.1150
Trade Summary: No trades available
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 501699
Question: Will Republicans have 54 seats in Senate after election?
Volume: 1046717.85044
Price History:
2024-06-18 22:00: 0.1150
2024-06-19 09:00: 0.1150
2024-06-19 20:00: 0.1150
2024-06-20 07:00: 0.1150
2024-06-20 18:00: 0.1150
2024-06-21 05:00: 0.1150
2024-06-21 16:00: 0.1150
2024-06-22 03:00: 0.1150
2024-06-22 14:00: 0.1150
2024-06-23 01:00: 0.1150
2024-06-23 12:00: 0.1150
2024-06-23 23:00: 0.1150
2024-06-24 10:00: 0.1150
2024-06-24 21:00: 0.1150
2024-06-25 08:00: 0.1150
2024-06-25 19:00: 0.1150
2024-06-26 06:00: 0.1150
2024-06-26 17:00: 0.1150
2024-06-27 04:00: 0.1150
2024-06-27 15:00: 0.1150
2024-06-28 02:00: 0.1150
2024-06-28 13:00: 0.1150
2024-06-29 00:00: 0.1150
2024-06-29 11:00: 0.1150
2024-06-29 22:00: 0.1150
2024-06-30 09:00: 0.1150
2024-06-30 20:00: 0.1150
2024-07-01 07:00: 0.1150
2024-07-01 18:00: 0.1150
2024-07-02 05:00: 0.1150
Trade Summary: No trades available
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 501699
Question: Will Republicans have 54 seats in Senate after election?
Volume: 1046717.85044
Price History:
2024-07-03 02:00: 0.1150
2024-07-03 13:00: 0.1150
2024-07-04 00:00: 0.1150
2024-07-04 11:00: 0.1150
2024-07-04 22:00: 0.1150
2024-07-05 09:00: 0.1150
2024-07-05 20:00: 0.1150
2024-07-06 07:00: 0.1150
2024-07-06 18:00: 0.1150
2024-07-07 05:00: 0.1150
2024-07-07 16:00: 0.1150
2024-07-08 03:00: 0.1150
2024-07-08 14:00: 0.1150
2024-07-09 01:00: 0.1150
2024-07-09 12:00: 0.1150
2024-07-09 23:00: 0.1150
2024-07-10 10:00: 0.1150
2024-07-10 21:00: 0.1150
2024-07-11 08:00: 0.1150
2024-07-11 19:00: 0.1150
2024-07-12 06:00: 0.1150
2024-07-12 17:00: 0.1150
2024-07-13 04:00: 0.1150
2024-07-13 15:00: 0.1150
2024-07-14 02:00: 0.1150
2024-07-14 13:00: 0.1150
2024-07-15 00:00: 0.1150
2024-07-15 11:00: 0.1150
2024-07-15 22:00: 0.1150
2024-07-16 09:00: 0.1150
Trade Summary: No trades available
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 501699
Question: Will Republicans have 54 seats in Senate after election?
Volume: 1046717.85044
Price History:
2024-07-17 06:00: 0.1150
2024-07-17 17:00: 0.1150
2024-07-18 04:00: 0.1150
2024-07-18 15:00: 0.1150
2024-07-19 02:00: 0.1150
2024-07-19 13:00: 0.1150
2024-07-20 00:00: 0.1150
2024-07-20 11:00: 0.1150
2024-07-20 22:00: 0.1150
2024-07-21 09:00: 0.1150
2024-07-21 21:00: 0.1150
2024-07-22 08:00: 0.1150
2024-07-22 19:00: 0.1150
2024-07-23 06:00: 0.1150
2024-07-23 17:00: 0.1150
2024-07-24 04:00: 0.1150
2024-07-24 15:00: 0.1150
2024-07-25 02:00: 0.1150
2024-07-25 13:00: 0.1150
2024-07-26 00:00: 0.1150
2024-07-26 11:00: 0.1150
2024-07-26 22:00: 0.1100
2024-07-27 09:00: 0.1100
2024-07-27 20:00: 0.1100
2024-07-28 07:00: 0.1100
2024-07-28 18:00: 0.0950
2024-07-29 05:00: 0.0950
2024-07-29 16:00: 0.0950
2024-07-30 03:00: 0.0950
2024-07-30 14:00: 0.0950
Trade Summary: No trades available
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 501699
Question: Will Republicans have 54 seats in Senate after election?
Volume: 1046717.85044
Price History:
2024-07-31 11:00: 0.0950
2024-07-31 22:00: 0.0950
2024-08-01 09:00: 0.0650
2024-08-01 20:00: 0.0700
2024-08-02 07:00: 0.0700
2024-08-02 18:00: 0.0700
2024-08-03 05:00: 0.0700
2024-08-03 16:00: 0.0700
2024-08-04 03:00: 0.0700
2024-08-04 14:00: 0.0700
2024-08-05 01:00: 0.0700
2024-08-05 12:00: 0.0700
2024-08-05 23:00: 0.0700
2024-08-06 10:00: 0.0700
2024-08-06 21:00: 0.0700
2024-08-07 08:00: 0.0700
2024-08-07 19:00: 0.0700
2024-08-08 06:00: 0.0700
2024-08-08 17:00: 0.0700
2024-08-09 04:00: 0.0700
2024-08-09 15:00: 0.0650
2024-08-10 02:00: 0.0650
2024-08-10 13:00: 0.0550
2024-08-11 00:00: 0.0550
2024-08-11 11:00: 0.0550
2024-08-11 22:00: 0.0550
2024-08-12 09:00: 0.0550
2024-08-12 20:00: 0.0550
2024-08-13 07:00: 0.0550
2024-08-13 18:00: 0.0450
Trade Summary: No trades available
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 501699
Question: Will Republicans have 54 seats in Senate after election?
Volume: 1046717.85044
Price History:
2024-08-14 15:00: 0.0450
2024-08-15 02:00: 0.0450
2024-08-15 13:00: 0.0400
2024-08-16 00:00: 0.0355
2024-08-16 11:00: 0.0350
2024-08-16 22:00: 0.0350
2024-08-17 09:00: 0.0360
2024-08-17 20:00: 0.0365
2024-08-18 07:00: 0.0370
2024-08-18 18:00: 0.0370
2024-08-19 05:00: 0.0360
2024-08-19 16:00: 0.0370
2024-08-20 03:00: 0.0370
2024-08-20 14:00: 0.0380
2024-08-21 01:00: 0.0365
2024-08-21 12:00: 0.0375
2024-08-21 23:00: 0.0370
2024-08-22 10:00: 0.0385
2024-08-22 21:00: 0.0370
2024-08-23 08:00: 0.0370
2024-08-23 19:00: 0.0375
2024-08-24 06:00: 0.0365
2024-08-24 17:00: 0.0370
2024-08-25 04:00: 0.0365
2024-08-25 15:00: 0.0365
2024-08-26 02:00: 0.0380
2024-08-26 13:00: 0.0365
2024-08-27 00:00: 0.0360
2024-08-27 11:00: 0.0335
2024-08-27 22:00: 0.0335
Trade Summary: No trades available
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 501699
Question: Will Republicans have 54 seats in Senate after election?
Volume: 1046717.85044
Price History:
2024-08-28 19:00: 0.0225
2024-08-29 06:00: 0.0225
2024-08-29 17:00: 0.0280
2024-08-30 04:00: 0.0275
2024-08-30 15:00: 0.0280
2024-08-31 02:00: 0.0285
2024-08-31 13:00: 0.0280
2024-09-01 00:00: 0.0285
2024-09-01 11:00: 0.0285
2024-09-01 22:00: 0.0285
2024-09-02 09:00: 0.0285
2024-09-02 20:00: 0.0280
2024-09-03 07:00: 0.0285
2024-09-03 18:00: 0.0270
2024-09-04 05:00: 0.0270
2024-09-04 16:00: 0.0270
2024-09-05 03:00: 0.0290
2024-09-05 14:00: 0.0320
2024-09-06 01:00: 0.0275
2024-09-06 12:00: 0.0275
2024-09-06 23:00: 0.0280
2024-09-07 10:00: 0.0295
2024-09-07 21:00: 0.0300
2024-09-08 08:00: 0.0300
2024-09-08 19:00: 0.0300
2024-09-09 06:00: 0.0320
2024-09-09 17:00: 0.0305
2024-09-10 04:00: 0.0365
2024-09-10 15:00: 0.0385
2024-09-11 02:00: 0.0390
Trade Summary: No trades available
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 501699
Question: Will Republicans have 54 seats in Senate after election?
Volume: 1046717.85044
Price History:
2024-09-11 23:00: 0.0390
2024-09-12 10:00: 0.0400
2024-09-12 21:00: 0.0425
2024-09-13 08:00: 0.0445
2024-09-13 19:00: 0.0445
2024-09-14 06:00: 0.0445
2024-09-14 17:00: 0.0445
2024-09-15 04:00: 0.0450
2024-09-15 15:00: 0.0445
2024-09-16 02:00: 0.0450
2024-09-16 13:00: 0.0450
2024-09-17 00:00: 0.0450
2024-09-17 11:00: 0.0445
2024-09-17 22:00: 0.0455
2024-09-18 09:00: 0.0455
2024-09-18 20:00: 0.0450
2024-09-19 07:00: 0.0450
2024-09-19 18:00: 0.0460
2024-09-20 05:00: 0.0460
2024-09-20 16:00: 0.0455
2024-09-21 03:00: 0.0455
2024-09-21 14:00: 0.0455
2024-09-22 01:00: 0.0455
2024-09-22 12:00: 0.0440
2024-09-22 23:00: 0.0435
2024-09-23 10:00: 0.0405
2024-09-23 21:00: 0.0365
2024-09-24 08:00: 0.0365
2024-09-24 19:00: 0.0385
2024-09-25 06:00: 0.0375
Trade Summary: No trades available
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 501699
Question: Will Republicans have 54 seats in Senate after election?
Volume: 1046717.85044
Price History:
2024-09-26 03:00: 0.0385
2024-09-26 14:00: 0.0390
2024-09-27 01:00: 0.0390
2024-09-27 12:00: 0.0380
2024-09-27 23:00: 0.0370
2024-09-28 10:00: 0.0365
2024-09-28 21:00: 0.0355
2024-09-29 08:00: 0.0400
2024-09-29 19:00: 0.0420
2024-09-30 06:00: 0.0425
2024-09-30 17:00: 0.0460
2024-10-01 04:00: 0.0470
2024-10-01 15:00: 0.0470
2024-10-02 02:00: 0.0485
2024-10-02 12:00: 0.0485
2024-10-02 23:00: 0.0460
2024-10-03 10:00: 0.0475
2024-10-03 21:00: 0.0485
2024-10-04 08:00: 0.0515
2024-10-04 19:00: 0.0515
2024-10-05 06:00: 0.0505
2024-10-05 17:00: 0.0555
2024-10-06 04:00: 0.0550
2024-10-06 15:00: 0.0530
2024-10-07 02:00: 0.0490
2024-10-07 13:00: 0.0500
2024-10-08 00:00: 0.0505
2024-10-08 11:00: 0.0500
2024-10-08 22:00: 0.0485
2024-10-09 09:00: 0.0510
Trade Summary: No trades available
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 501699
Question: Will Republicans have 54 seats in Senate after election?
Volume: 1046717.85044
Price History:
2024-10-10 06:00: 0.0480
2024-10-10 17:00: 0.0470
2024-10-11 04:00: 0.0510
2024-10-11 15:00: 0.0540
2024-10-12 02:00: 0.0555
2024-10-12 13:00: 0.0540
2024-10-13 00:00: 0.0540
2024-10-13 11:00: 0.0510
2024-10-13 22:00: 0.0600
2024-10-14 09:00: 0.0530
2024-10-14 20:00: 0.0555
2024-10-15 07:00: 0.0490
2024-10-15 18:00: 0.0490
2024-10-16 05:00: 0.0500
2024-10-16 16:00: 0.0490
2024-10-17 03:00: 0.0540
2024-10-17 14:00: 0.0570
2024-10-18 01:00: 0.0630
2024-10-18 12:00: 0.0650
2024-10-18 23:00: 0.0700
2024-10-19 10:00: 0.0700
2024-10-19 21:00: 0.0710
2024-10-20 08:00: 0.0735
2024-10-20 19:00: 0.0755
2024-10-21 06:00: 0.1095
2024-10-21 17:00: 0.1070
2024-10-22 04:00: 0.1135
2024-10-22 15:00: 0.1255
2024-10-23 02:00: 0.1170
2024-10-23 13:00: 0.1175
Trade Summary: No trades available
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 501699
Question: Will Republicans have 54 seats in Senate after election?
Volume: 1046717.85044
Price History:
2024-10-24 10:00: 0.1175
2024-10-24 21:00: 0.1165
2024-10-25 08:00: 0.1170
2024-10-25 19:00: 0.1190
2024-10-26 06:00: 0.1190
2024-10-26 17:00: 0.1220
2024-10-27 04:00: 0.1215
2024-10-27 15:00: 0.1185
2024-10-28 02:00: 0.1185
2024-10-28 13:00: 0.1175
2024-10-29 00:00: 0.1225
2024-10-29 11:00: 0.1280
2024-10-29 22:00: 0.1275
2024-10-30 09:00: 0.1280
2024-10-30 20:00: 0.1270
2024-10-31 07:00: 0.1235
2024-10-31 18:00: 0.1325
2024-11-01 05:00: 0.1305
2024-11-01 16:00: 0.1190
2024-11-02 03:00: 0.1300
2024-11-02 14:00: 0.1220
2024-11-03 01:00: 0.1190
2024-11-03 11:00: 0.1150
2024-11-03 22:00: 0.1270
2024-11-04 09:00: 0.1255
2024-11-04 20:00: 0.1180
2024-11-05 07:00: 0.1350
2024-11-05 19:00: 0.1995
2024-11-06 06:00: 0.3175
2024-11-06 17:00: 0.3050
Trade Summary: No trades available
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 501699
Question: Will Republicans have 54 seats in Senate after election?
Volume: 1046717.85044
Price History:
2024-11-07 14:00: 0.0615
2024-11-08 01:00: 0.1190
2024-11-08 12:00: 0.1135
2024-11-08 23:00: 0.1100
2024-11-09 10:00: 0.1010
2024-11-09 21:00: 0.0325
2024-11-10 08:00: 0.0055
2024-11-10 19:00: 0.0035
2024-11-11 06:00: 0.0035
2024-11-11 17:00: 0.0030
2024-11-12 04:00: 0.0040
2024-11-12 15:00: 0.0025
2024-11-13 02:00: 0.0015
2024-11-13 13:00: 0.0045
2024-11-14 00:00: 0.0055
2024-11-14 11:00: 0.0055
2024-11-14 22:00: 0.0030
2024-11-15 09:00: 0.0030
2024-11-15 20:00: 0.0020
2024-11-16 07:00: 0.0035
2024-11-16 18:00: 0.0015
2024-11-17 05:00: 0.0015
2024-11-17 16:00: 0.0025
2024-11-18 03:00: 0.0020
2024-11-18 14:00: 0.0025
2024-11-19 01:00: 0.0020
2024-11-19 12:00: 0.0020
2024-11-19 23:00: 0.0020
2024-11-20 10:00: 0.0020
2024-11-20 21:00: 0.0020
Trade Summary: No trades available
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 570985
Question: Will Trump announce Scott Bessent to replace Kugler?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 4044.11425
Price History:
2025-08-01 18:00: 0.5000
2025-08-01 18:00: 0.5000
2025-08-01 19:00: 0.2000
2025-08-01 19:00: 0.8000
2025-08-01 20:00: 0.2000
2025-08-01 20:00: 0.8000
2025-08-01 21:00: 0.1950
2025-08-01 21:00: 0.8050
2025-08-01 22:00: 0.1900
2025-08-01 22:00: 0.8100
2025-08-01 23:00: 0.1850
2025-08-01 23:00: 0.8150
2025-08-02 00:00: 0.1850
2025-08-02 00:00: 0.8150
2025-08-02 01:00: 0.1850
2025-08-02 01:00: 0.8150
2025-08-02 02:00: 0.1850
2025-08-02 02:00: 0.8150
2025-08-02 03:00: 0.1850
2025-08-02 03:00: 0.8150
2025-08-02 04:00: 0.1800
2025-08-02 04:00: 0.8200
2025-08-02 05:00: 0.1800
Trade Summary: Total trades: 2, Buy volume: 26.30, Sell volume: 0.00, Average price: 0.6350, Price range: 0.3200 - 0.9500

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 570985
Question: Will Trump announce Scott Bessent to replace Kugler?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 4044.11425
Price History:
2025-08-02 05:00: 0.8200
2025-08-02 06:00: 0.1800
2025-08-02 06:00: 0.8200
2025-08-02 07:00: 0.1600
2025-08-02 07:00: 0.8400
2025-08-02 08:00: 0.1600
2025-08-02 08:00: 0.8400
2025-08-02 09:00: 0.1600
2025-08-02 09:00: 0.8400
2025-08-02 10:00: 0.1600
2025-08-02 10:00: 0.8400
2025-08-02 11:00: 0.1600
2025-08-02 11:00: 0.8400
2025-08-02 12:00: 0.1600
2025-08-02 12:00: 0.8400
2025-08-02 13:00: 0.1500
2025-08-02 13:00: 0.8500
2025-08-02 14:00: 0.1500
2025-08-02 14:00: 0.8500
2025-08-02 15:00: 0.1500
2025-08-02 15:00: 0.8500
2025-08-02 16:00: 0.1500
2025-08-02 16:00: 0.8500
Trade Summary: Total trades: 31, Buy volume: 2832.82, Sell volume: 1211.29, Average price: 0.6869, Price range: 0.0051 - 0.9990

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 570985
Question: Will Trump announce Scott Bessent to replace Kugler?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 4044.11425
Price History:
2025-08-02 17:00: 0.1450
2025-08-02 17:00: 0.8550
2025-08-02 18:00: 0.1400
2025-08-02 18:00: 0.8600
2025-08-02 19:00: 0.1400
2025-08-02 19:00: 0.8600
2025-08-02 20:00: 0.1400
2025-08-02 20:00: 0.8600
2025-08-02 21:00: 0.1400
2025-08-02 21:00: 0.8600
2025-08-02 22:00: 0.1400
2025-08-02 22:00: 0.8600
2025-08-02 23:00: 0.1200
2025-08-02 23:00: 0.8800
2025-08-03 00:00: 0.1200
2025-08-03 00:00: 0.8800
2025-08-03 01:00: 0.1200
2025-08-03 01:00: 0.8800
2025-08-03 02:00: 0.1200
2025-08-03 02:00: 0.8800
2025-08-03 03:00: 0.1100
2025-08-03 03:00: 0.8900
2025-08-03 04:00: 0.1100
Trade Summary: Total trades: 31, Buy volume: 2832.82, Sell volume: 1211.29, Average price: 0.6869, Price range: 0.0051 - 0.9990

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 570985
Question: Will Trump announce Scott Bessent to replace Kugler?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 4044.11425
Price History:
2025-08-03 04:00: 0.8900
2025-08-03 05:00: 0.1100
2025-08-03 05:00: 0.8900
2025-08-03 06:00: 0.1100
2025-08-03 06:00: 0.8900
2025-08-03 07:00: 0.1050
2025-08-03 07:00: 0.8950
2025-08-03 08:00: 0.1000
2025-08-03 08:00: 0.9000
2025-08-03 09:00: 0.1000
2025-08-03 09:00: 0.9000
2025-08-03 10:00: 0.1000
2025-08-03 10:00: 0.9000
2025-08-03 11:00: 0.1000
2025-08-03 11:00: 0.9000
2025-08-03 12:00: 0.0950
2025-08-03 12:00: 0.9050
2025-08-03 13:00: 0.0950
2025-08-03 13:00: 0.9050
2025-08-03 14:00: 0.0950
2025-08-03 14:00: 0.9050
2025-08-03 15:00: 0.0950
2025-08-03 15:00: 0.9050
Trade Summary: Total trades: 4, Buy volume: 56.41, Sell volume: 6.30, Average price: 0.5250, Price range: 0.0600 - 0.9400

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 570985
Question: Will Trump announce Scott Bessent to replace Kugler?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 4044.11425
Price History:
2025-08-03 16:00: 0.0950
2025-08-03 16:00: 0.9050
2025-08-03 17:00: 0.0950
2025-08-03 17:00: 0.9050
2025-08-03 18:00: 0.0950
2025-08-03 18:00: 0.9050
2025-08-03 19:00: 0.0950
2025-08-03 19:00: 0.9050
2025-08-03 20:00: 0.0900
2025-08-03 20:00: 0.9100
2025-08-03 21:00: 0.0850
2025-08-03 21:00: 0.9150
2025-08-03 22:00: 0.0700
2025-08-03 22:00: 0.9300
2025-08-03 23:00: 0.0150
2025-08-03 23:00: 0.9850
2025-08-04 00:00: 0.0140
2025-08-04 00:00: 0.9860
2025-08-04 01:00: 0.0135
2025-08-04 01:00: 0.9865
2025-08-04 02:00: 0.0155
2025-08-04 02:00: 0.9845
2025-08-04 03:00: 0.0155
Trade Summary: Total trades: 5, Buy volume: 1060.86, Sell volume: 2.65, Average price: 0.7880, Price range: 0.0300 - 0.9900

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 570985
Question: Will Trump announce Scott Bessent to replace Kugler?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 4044.11425
Price History:
2025-08-04 03:00: 0.9845
2025-08-04 04:00: 0.0195
2025-08-04 04:00: 0.9805
2025-08-04 05:00: 0.0155
2025-08-04 05:00: 0.9845
2025-08-04 06:00: 0.0155
2025-08-04 06:00: 0.9845
2025-08-04 07:00: 0.0155
2025-08-04 07:00: 0.9845
2025-08-04 08:00: 0.0160
2025-08-04 08:00: 0.9840
2025-08-04 09:00: 0.0235
2025-08-04 09:00: 0.9765
2025-08-04 10:00: 0.0230
2025-08-04 10:00: 0.9770
2025-08-04 11:00: 0.0230
2025-08-04 11:00: 0.9770
2025-08-04 12:00: 0.0230
2025-08-04 12:00: 0.9770
2025-08-04 13:00: 0.0230
2025-08-04 13:00: 0.9770
2025-08-04 14:00: 0.0230
2025-08-04 14:00: 0.9770
Trade Summary: Total trades: 3, Buy volume: 227.17, Sell volume: 0.00, Average price: 0.3462, Price range: 0.0273 - 0.9820

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 570985
Question: Will Trump announce Scott Bessent to replace Kugler?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 4044.11425
Price History:
2025-08-04 15:00: 0.0290
2025-08-04 15:00: 0.9710
2025-08-04 16:00: 0.0290
2025-08-04 16:00: 0.9710
2025-08-04 17:00: 0.0260
2025-08-04 17:00: 0.9740
2025-08-04 18:00: 0.0195
2025-08-04 18:00: 0.9805
2025-08-04 19:00: 0.0150
2025-08-04 19:00: 0.9850
2025-08-04 20:00: 0.0185
2025-08-04 20:00: 0.9815
2025-08-04 21:00: 0.0190
2025-08-04 21:00: 0.9810
2025-08-04 22:00: 0.0150
2025-08-04 22:00: 0.9850
2025-08-04 23:00: 0.0150
2025-08-04 23:00: 0.9850
2025-08-05 00:00: 0.0150
2025-08-05 00:00: 0.9850
2025-08-05 01:00: 0.0195
2025-08-05 01:00: 0.9805
2025-08-05 02:00: 0.0150
Trade Summary: Total trades: 2, Buy volume: 150.31, Sell volume: 0.00, Average price: 0.9889, Price range: 0.9880 - 0.9897

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 570985
Question: Will Trump announce Scott Bessent to replace Kugler?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 4044.11425
Price History:
2025-08-05 02:00: 0.9850
2025-08-05 03:00: 0.0150
2025-08-05 03:00: 0.9850
2025-08-05 04:00: 0.0150
2025-08-05 04:00: 0.9850
2025-08-05 05:00: 0.0150
2025-08-05 05:00: 0.9850
2025-08-05 06:00: 0.0150
2025-08-05 06:00: 0.9850
2025-08-05 07:00: 0.0150
2025-08-05 07:00: 0.9850
2025-08-05 08:00: 0.0150
2025-08-05 08:00: 0.9850
2025-08-05 09:00: 0.0105
2025-08-05 09:00: 0.9895
2025-08-05 10:00: 0.0215
2025-08-05 10:00: 0.9785
2025-08-05 11:00: 0.0095
2025-08-05 11:00: 0.9905
2025-08-05 12:00: 0.0070
2025-08-05 12:00: 0.9930
2025-08-05 13:00: 0.0070
2025-08-05 13:00: 0.9930
Trade Summary: Total trades: 6, Buy volume: 85.86, Sell volume: 994.70, Average price: 0.6639, Price range: 0.0051 - 0.9940

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 570985
Question: Will Trump announce Scott Bessent to replace Kugler?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 4044.11425
Price History:
2025-08-05 14:00: 0.0070
2025-08-05 14:00: 0.9930
2025-08-05 15:00: 0.0070
2025-08-05 15:00: 0.9930
2025-08-05 16:00: 0.0070
2025-08-05 16:00: 0.9930
2025-08-05 17:00: 0.0070
2025-08-05 17:00: 0.9930
2025-08-05 18:00: 0.0080
2025-08-05 18:00: 0.9920
2025-08-05 19:00: 0.0080
2025-08-05 19:00: 0.9920
2025-08-05 20:00: 0.0080
2025-08-05 20:00: 0.9920
2025-08-05 21:00: 0.0080
2025-08-05 21:00: 0.9920
2025-08-05 22:00: 0.0080
2025-08-05 22:00: 0.9920
2025-08-05 23:00: 0.0080
2025-08-05 23:00: 0.9920
2025-08-06 00:00: 0.0080
2025-08-06 00:00: 0.9920
2025-08-06 01:00: 0.0080
Trade Summary: Total trades: 3, Buy volume: 0.00, Sell volume: 17.33, Average price: 0.6630, Price range: 0.0070 - 0.9910

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 570985
Question: Will Trump announce Scott Bessent to replace Kugler?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 4044.11425
Price History:
2025-08-06 01:00: 0.9920
2025-08-06 02:00: 0.0080
2025-08-06 02:00: 0.9920
2025-08-06 03:00: 0.0080
2025-08-06 03:00: 0.9920
2025-08-06 04:00: 0.0080
2025-08-06 04:00: 0.9920
2025-08-06 05:00: 0.0080
2025-08-06 05:00: 0.9920
2025-08-06 06:00: 0.0080
2025-08-06 06:00: 0.9920
2025-08-06 07:00: 0.0080
2025-08-06 07:00: 0.9920
2025-08-06 08:00: 0.0080
2025-08-06 08:00: 0.9920
2025-08-06 09:00: 0.0080
2025-08-06 09:00: 0.9920
2025-08-06 10:00: 0.0080
2025-08-06 10:00: 0.9920
2025-08-06 11:00: 0.0080
2025-08-06 11:00: 0.9920
2025-08-06 12:00: 0.0080
2025-08-06 12:00: 0.9920
Trade Summary: Total trades: 31, Buy volume: 2832.82, Sell volume: 1211.29, Average price: 0.6869, Price range: 0.0051 - 0.9990

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 570985
Question: Will Trump announce Scott Bessent to replace Kugler?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 4044.11425
Price History:
2025-08-06 13:00: 0.0080
2025-08-06 13:00: 0.9920
2025-08-06 14:00: 0.0080
2025-08-06 14:00: 0.9920
2025-08-06 15:00: 0.0080
2025-08-06 15:00: 0.9920
2025-08-06 16:00: 0.0080
2025-08-06 16:00: 0.9920
2025-08-06 17:00: 0.0080
2025-08-06 17:00: 0.9920
2025-08-06 18:00: 0.9920
2025-08-06 18:00: 0.0080
2025-08-06 19:00: 0.0080
2025-08-06 19:00: 0.9920
2025-08-06 20:00: 0.0080
2025-08-06 20:00: 0.9920
2025-08-06 21:00: 0.0080
2025-08-06 21:00: 0.9920
2025-08-06 22:00: 0.9920
2025-08-06 22:00: 0.0080
2025-08-06 23:00: 0.9920
2025-08-06 23:00: 0.0080
2025-08-07 00:00: 0.0080
Trade Summary: Total trades: 1, Buy volume: 0.00, Sell volume: 40.00, Average price: 0.0070, Price range: 0.0070 - 0.0070

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 570985
Question: Will Trump announce Scott Bessent to replace Kugler?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 4044.11425
Price History:
2025-08-07 00:00: 0.9920
2025-08-07 01:00: 0.0080
2025-08-07 01:00: 0.9920
2025-08-07 02:00: 0.0080
2025-08-07 02:00: 0.9920
2025-08-07 03:00: 0.0080
2025-08-07 03:00: 0.9920
2025-08-07 04:00: 0.0080
2025-08-07 04:00: 0.9920
2025-08-07 05:00: 0.0080
2025-08-07 05:00: 0.9920
2025-08-07 06:00: 0.9920
2025-08-07 06:00: 0.0080
2025-08-07 07:00: 0.0080
2025-08-07 07:00: 0.9920
2025-08-07 08:00: 0.0080
2025-08-07 08:00: 0.9920
2025-08-07 09:00: 0.9920
2025-08-07 09:00: 0.0080
2025-08-07 10:00: 0.0080
2025-08-07 10:00: 0.9920
2025-08-07 11:00: 0.0080
2025-08-07 11:00: 0.9920
Trade Summary: Total trades: 31, Buy volume: 2832.82, Sell volume: 1211.29, Average price: 0.6869, Price range: 0.0051 - 0.9990

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 570985
Question: Will Trump announce Scott Bessent to replace Kugler?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 4044.11425
Price History:
2025-08-07 12:00: 0.9920
2025-08-07 12:00: 0.0080
2025-08-07 13:00: 0.0080
2025-08-07 13:00: 0.9920
2025-08-07 14:00: 0.9920
2025-08-07 14:00: 0.0080
2025-08-07 15:00: 0.9920
2025-08-07 15:00: 0.0080
2025-08-07 16:00: 0.0030
2025-08-07 16:00: 0.9970
2025-08-07 17:00: 0.0005
2025-08-07 17:00: 0.9995
2025-08-07 18:00: 0.9995
2025-08-07 18:00: 0.0005
2025-08-07 19:00: 0.9995
2025-08-07 19:00: 0.0005
2025-08-07 20:00: 0.9995
2025-08-07 20:00: 0.0005
2025-08-07 21:00: 0.9995
2025-08-07 21:00: 0.0005
2025-08-07 22:00: 0.0005
2025-08-07 22:00: 0.9995
2025-08-07 23:00: 0.0005
Trade Summary: Total trades: 5, Buy volume: 1225.91, Sell volume: 150.31, Average price: 0.9979, Price range: 0.9949 - 0.9990

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 501700
Question: Will Republicans have 55 seats in Senate after election?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 4595290.400508
Price History:
2024-05-21 14:00: 0.0900
2024-05-21 20:00: 0.9600
2024-05-22 03:00: 0.0305
2024-05-22 09:00: 0.9695
2024-05-22 16:00: 0.0320
2024-05-22 22:00: 0.9690
2024-05-23 05:00: 0.0305
2024-05-23 11:00: 0.9695
2024-05-23 18:00: 0.0305
2024-05-24 00:00: 0.9695
2024-05-24 07:00: 0.0305
2024-05-24 13:00: 0.9695
2024-05-24 20:00: 0.0305
2024-05-25 02:00: 0.9695
2024-05-25 09:00: 0.0305
2024-05-25 15:00: 0.9695
2024-05-25 22:00: 0.0305
2024-05-26 04:00: 0.9695
2024-05-26 11:00: 0.0310
2024-05-26 17:00: 0.9690
2024-05-27 00:00: 0.0310
2024-05-27 06:00: 0.9690
2024-05-27 13:00: 0.0310
2024-05-27 19:00: 0.9690
2024-05-28 02:00: 0.0305
2024-05-28 08:00: 0.9695
2024-05-28 15:00: 0.0305
2024-05-28 21:00: 0.9695
2024-05-29 04:00: 0.0305
2024-05-29 10:00: 0.9695
2024-05-29 17:00: 0.0305
2024-05-29 23:00: 0.9695
2024-05-30 06:00: 0.0295
2024-05-30 12:00: 0.9705
2024-05-30 19:00: 0.0295
2024-05-31 01:00: 0.9710
2024-05-31 08:00: 0.0290
2024-05-31 14:00: 0.9710
2024-05-31 21:00: 0.0290
2024-06-01 03:00: 0.9710
2024-06-01 10:00: 0.0330
2024-06-01 16:00: 0.9670
2024-06-01 23:00: 0.0325
2024-06-02 05:00: 0.9625
2024-06-02 12:00: 0.0375
2024-06-02 18:00: 0.9625
2024-06-03 01:00: 0.0375
2024-06-03 07:00: 0.9625
2024-06-03 14:00: 0.0375
2024-06-03 20:00: 0.9625
Trade Summary: No trades available

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 501700
Question: Will Republicans have 55 seats in Senate after election?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 4595290.400508
Price History:
2024-06-04 18:00: 0.0375
2024-06-05 00:00: 0.9625
2024-06-05 07:00: 0.0375
2024-06-05 13:00: 0.9625
2024-06-05 20:00: 0.0375
2024-06-06 02:00: 0.9560
2024-06-06 09:00: 0.0440
2024-06-06 15:00: 0.9560
2024-06-06 22:00: 0.0445
2024-06-07 04:00: 0.9555
2024-06-07 11:00: 0.0445
2024-06-07 17:00: 0.9555
2024-06-08 00:00: 0.0445
2024-06-08 06:00: 0.9555
2024-06-08 13:00: 0.0445
2024-06-08 19:00: 0.9485
2024-06-09 02:00: 0.0465
2024-06-09 08:00: 0.9535
2024-06-09 15:00: 0.0465
2024-06-09 21:00: 0.9535
2024-06-10 04:00: 0.0580
2024-06-10 10:00: 0.9420
2024-06-10 17:00: 0.0580
2024-06-10 23:00: 0.9420
2024-06-11 06:00: 0.0580
2024-06-11 12:00: 0.9420
2024-06-11 19:00: 0.0580
2024-06-12 01:00: 0.9420
2024-06-12 08:00: 0.0580
2024-06-12 14:00: 0.9420
2024-06-12 21:00: 0.0580
2024-06-13 03:00: 0.9420
2024-06-13 10:00: 0.0580
2024-06-13 16:00: 0.9420
2024-06-13 23:00: 0.0580
2024-06-14 05:00: 0.9420
2024-06-14 12:00: 0.0580
2024-06-14 18:00: 0.9420
2024-06-15 01:00: 0.0580
2024-06-15 07:00: 0.9420
2024-06-15 14:00: 0.0580
2024-06-15 20:00: 0.9415
2024-06-16 03:00: 0.0585
2024-06-16 09:00: 0.9415
2024-06-16 16:00: 0.0585
2024-06-16 22:00: 0.9415
2024-06-17 05:00: 0.0585
2024-06-17 11:00: 0.9415
2024-06-17 18:00: 0.0580
2024-06-18 00:00: 0.9420
Trade Summary: No trades available

Output: Yes