Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 502139
Question: Will NL receive more than 8% of votes?
Volume: 2548.261406
Price History:
2024-06-06 10:00: 0.4850
2024-06-06 10:00: 0.5150
2024-06-06 11:00: 0.4850
2024-06-06 11:00: 0.5150
2024-06-06 12:00: 0.4850
2024-06-06 12:00: 0.5150
2024-06-06 13:00: 0.4850
2024-06-06 13:00: 0.5150
2024-06-06 14:00: 0.4800
2024-06-06 14:00: 0.5200
2024-06-06 15:00: 0.4800
2024-06-06 15:00: 0.5200
2024-06-06 16:00: 0.4900
2024-06-06 16:00: 0.5100
2024-06-06 17:00: 0.4900
2024-06-06 17:00: 0.5100
Trade Summary: Total trades: 2, Buy volume: 3.92, Sell volume: 50.00, Average price: 0.5050, Price range: 0.5000 - 0.5100
Manipulation Indicators Detected: None

Output: No


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 502139
Question: Will NL receive more than 8% of votes?
Volume: 2548.261406
Price History:
2024-06-06 18:00: 0.4900
2024-06-06 18:00: 0.5100
2024-06-06 19:00: 0.4900
2024-06-06 19:00: 0.5100
2024-06-06 20:00: 0.4900
2024-06-06 20:00: 0.5100
2024-06-06 21:00: 0.4900
2024-06-06 21:00: 0.5100
2024-06-06 22:00: 0.4900
2024-06-06 22:00: 0.5100
2024-06-06 23:00: 0.4900
2024-06-06 23:00: 0.5100
2024-06-07 00:00: 0.4900
2024-06-07 00:00: 0.5100
2024-06-07 01:00: 0.4900
2024-06-07 01:00: 0.5100
Trade Summary: Total trades: 15, Buy volume: 2157.19, Sell volume: 391.07, Average price: 0.5436, Price range: 0.4100 - 0.9990
Manipulation Indicators Detected: None

Output: No


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 502139
Question: Will NL receive more than 8% of votes?
Volume: 2548.261406
Price History:
2024-06-07 02:00: 0.4900
2024-06-07 02:00: 0.5100
2024-06-07 03:00: 0.4900
2024-06-07 03:00: 0.5100
2024-06-07 04:00: 0.4900
2024-06-07 04:00: 0.5100
2024-06-07 05:00: 0.4900
2024-06-07 05:00: 0.5100
2024-06-07 06:00: 0.4900
2024-06-07 06:00: 0.5100
2024-06-07 07:00: 0.4900
2024-06-07 07:00: 0.5100
2024-06-07 08:00: 0.4900
2024-06-07 08:00: 0.5100
2024-06-07 09:00: 0.4900
2024-06-07 09:00: 0.5100
Trade Summary: Total trades: 15, Buy volume: 2157.19, Sell volume: 391.07, Average price: 0.5436, Price range: 0.4100 - 0.9990
Manipulation Indicators Detected: None

Output: No


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 502139
Question: Will NL receive more than 8% of votes?
Volume: 2548.261406
Price History:
2024-06-07 10:00: 0.5000
2024-06-07 10:00: 0.5000
2024-06-07 11:00: 0.5000
2024-06-07 11:00: 0.5000
2024-06-07 12:00: 0.7500
2024-06-07 12:00: 0.2500
2024-06-07 13:00: 0.7500
2024-06-07 13:00: 0.2500
2024-06-07 14:00: 0.7500
2024-06-07 14:00: 0.2500
2024-06-07 15:00: 0.7500
2024-06-07 15:00: 0.2500
2024-06-07 16:00: 0.7500
2024-06-07 16:00: 0.2500
2024-06-07 17:00: 0.7500
2024-06-07 17:00: 0.2500
Trade Summary: Total trades: 1, Buy volume: 0.00, Sell volume: 196.07, Average price: 0.4900, Price range: 0.4900 - 0.4900
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility

Output: No


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 502139
Question: Will NL receive more than 8% of votes?
Volume: 2548.261406
Price History:
2024-06-07 18:00: 0.7500
2024-06-07 18:00: 0.2500
2024-06-07 19:00: 0.7500
2024-06-07 19:00: 0.2500
2024-06-07 20:00: 0.7500
2024-06-07 20:00: 0.2500
2024-06-07 21:00: 0.7500
2024-06-07 21:00: 0.2500
2024-06-07 22:00: 0.7500
2024-06-07 22:00: 0.2500
2024-06-07 23:00: 0.7500
2024-06-07 23:00: 0.2500
2024-06-08 00:00: 0.7500
2024-06-08 00:00: 0.2500
2024-06-08 01:00: 0.7500
2024-06-08 01:00: 0.2500
Trade Summary: Total trades: 15, Buy volume: 2157.19, Sell volume: 391.07, Average price: 0.5436, Price range: 0.4100 - 0.9990
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility

Output: No


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 502139
Question: Will NL receive more than 8% of votes?
Volume: 2548.261406
Price History:
2024-06-08 02:00: 0.7500
2024-06-08 02:00: 0.2500
2024-06-08 03:00: 0.7500
2024-06-08 03:00: 0.2500
2024-06-08 04:00: 0.6000
2024-06-08 04:00: 0.4000
2024-06-08 05:00: 0.6000
2024-06-08 05:00: 0.4000
2024-06-08 06:00: 0.6000
2024-06-08 06:00: 0.4000
2024-06-08 07:00: 0.6000
2024-06-08 07:00: 0.4000
2024-06-08 08:00: 0.6000
2024-06-08 08:00: 0.4000
2024-06-08 09:00: 0.6000
2024-06-08 09:00: 0.4000
Trade Summary: Total trades: 1, Buy volume: 55.00, Sell volume: 0.00, Average price: 0.5700, Price range: 0.5700 - 0.5700
Manipulation Indicators Detected: None

Output: No


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 502139
Question: Will NL receive more than 8% of votes?
Volume: 2548.261406
Price History:
2024-06-08 10:00: 0.6000
2024-06-08 10:00: 0.4000
2024-06-08 11:00: 0.6000
2024-06-08 11:00: 0.4000
2024-06-08 12:00: 0.6000
2024-06-08 12:00: 0.4000
2024-06-08 13:00: 0.6050
2024-06-08 13:00: 0.3950
2024-06-08 14:00: 0.6050
2024-06-08 14:00: 0.3950
2024-06-08 15:00: 0.6100
2024-06-08 15:00: 0.3900
2024-06-08 16:00: 0.6050
2024-06-08 16:00: 0.3950
2024-06-08 17:00: 0.6050
2024-06-08 17:00: 0.3950
Trade Summary: Total trades: 1, Buy volume: 8.02, Sell volume: 0.00, Average price: 0.6238, Price range: 0.6238 - 0.6238
Manipulation Indicators Detected: None

Output: No


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 502139
Question: Will NL receive more than 8% of votes?
Volume: 2548.261406
Price History:
2024-06-08 18:00: 0.6050
2024-06-08 18:00: 0.3950
2024-06-08 19:00: 0.6050
2024-06-08 19:00: 0.3950
2024-06-08 20:00: 0.6050
2024-06-08 20:00: 0.3950
2024-06-08 21:00: 0.6050
2024-06-08 21:00: 0.3950
2024-06-08 22:00: 0.6050
2024-06-08 22:00: 0.3950
2024-06-08 23:00: 0.6050
2024-06-08 23:00: 0.3950
2024-06-09 00:00: 0.6050
2024-06-09 00:00: 0.3950
2024-06-09 01:00: 0.6050
2024-06-09 01:00: 0.3950
Trade Summary: Total trades: 15, Buy volume: 2157.19, Sell volume: 391.07, Average price: 0.5436, Price range: 0.4100 - 0.9990
Manipulation Indicators Detected: None

Output: No


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 502139
Question: Will NL receive more than 8% of votes?
Volume: 2548.261406
Price History:
2024-06-09 02:00: 0.6050
2024-06-09 02:00: 0.3950
2024-06-09 03:00: 0.4950
2024-06-09 03:00: 0.5050
2024-06-09 04:00: 0.4950
2024-06-09 04:00: 0.5050
2024-06-09 05:00: 0.4950
2024-06-09 05:00: 0.5050
2024-06-09 06:00: 0.4950
2024-06-09 06:00: 0.5050
2024-06-09 07:00: 0.4950
2024-06-09 07:00: 0.5050
2024-06-09 08:00: 0.5600
2024-06-09 08:00: 0.4400
2024-06-09 09:00: 0.5600
2024-06-09 09:00: 0.4400
Trade Summary: Total trades: 1, Buy volume: 65.00, Sell volume: 0.00, Average price: 0.4100, Price range: 0.4100 - 0.4100
Manipulation Indicators Detected: None

Output: No


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 502139
Question: Will NL receive more than 8% of votes?
Volume: 2548.261406
Price History:
2024-06-09 10:00: 0.5600
2024-06-09 10:00: 0.4400
2024-06-09 11:00: 0.5600
2024-06-09 11:00: 0.4400
2024-06-09 12:00: 0.5000
2024-06-09 12:00: 0.5000
2024-06-09 13:00: 0.5000
2024-06-09 13:00: 0.5000
2024-06-09 14:00: 0.5000
2024-06-09 14:00: 0.5000
2024-06-09 15:00: 0.5000
2024-06-09 15:00: 0.5000
2024-06-09 16:00: 0.5000
2024-06-09 16:00: 0.5000
2024-06-09 17:00: 0.5000
2024-06-09 17:00: 0.5000
Trade Summary: Total trades: 1, Buy volume: 75.25, Sell volume: 0.00, Average price: 0.6214, Price range: 0.6214 - 0.6214
Manipulation Indicators Detected: None

Output: No


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 502139
Question: Will NL receive more than 8% of votes?
Volume: 2548.261406
Price History:
2024-06-09 18:00: 0.5000
2024-06-09 18:00: 0.5000
2024-06-09 19:00: 0.2500
2024-06-09 19:00: 0.7500
2024-06-09 20:00: 0.1050
2024-06-09 20:00: 0.8950
2024-06-09 21:00: 0.1050
2024-06-09 21:00: 0.8950
2024-06-09 22:00: 0.1050
2024-06-09 22:00: 0.8950
2024-06-09 23:00: 0.1050
2024-06-09 23:00: 0.8950
2024-06-10 00:00: 0.1050
2024-06-10 00:00: 0.8950
2024-06-10 01:00: 0.1050
2024-06-10 01:00: 0.8950
Trade Summary: Total trades: 15, Buy volume: 2157.19, Sell volume: 391.07, Average price: 0.5436, Price range: 0.4100 - 0.9990
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 559657
Question: Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 1846945.465926
Price History:
2025-07-11 15:00: 0.4000
2025-07-18 12:00: 0.5000
2025-07-18 17:00: 0.0175
2025-07-18 21:00: 0.9855
2025-07-19 02:00: 0.0150
2025-07-19 06:00: 0.9840
2025-07-19 11:00: 0.0160
2025-07-19 15:00: 0.9840
2025-07-19 20:00: 0.0160
2025-07-20 00:00: 0.9840
2025-07-20 05:00: 0.0160
2025-07-20 09:00: 0.9840
2025-07-20 14:00: 0.0160
2025-07-20 18:00: 0.9840
2025-07-20 23:00: 0.0160
2025-07-21 03:00: 0.9840
2025-07-21 08:00: 0.0160
2025-07-21 12:00: 0.9840
2025-07-21 17:00: 0.0155
2025-07-21 21:00: 0.9845
2025-07-22 02:00: 0.0160
2025-07-22 06:00: 0.9840
2025-07-22 11:00: 0.0160
2025-07-22 15:00: 0.9840
2025-07-22 20:00: 0.0160
2025-07-23 00:00: 0.9840
2025-07-23 04:00: 0.0160
2025-07-23 08:00: 0.9835
2025-07-23 13:00: 0.0160
2025-07-23 17:00: 0.9840
2025-07-23 22:00: 0.0155
2025-07-24 02:00: 0.9845
2025-07-24 07:00: 0.0160
2025-07-24 11:00: 0.9840
2025-07-24 16:00: 0.0150
2025-07-24 20:00: 0.9850
2025-07-25 01:00: 0.0150
2025-07-25 05:00: 0.9850
2025-07-25 10:00: 0.0150
2025-07-25 14:00: 0.9855
2025-07-25 19:00: 0.0145
2025-07-25 23:00: 0.9850
2025-07-26 04:00: 0.0150
2025-07-26 08:00: 0.9850
2025-07-26 13:00: 0.0150
2025-07-26 17:00: 0.9855
2025-07-26 22:00: 0.0145
2025-07-27 02:00: 0.9855
2025-07-27 07:00: 0.0150
2025-07-27 11:00: 0.9850
Trade Summary: No trades available

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 559657
Question: Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 1846945.465926
Price History:
2025-07-27 22:00: 0.0210
2025-07-28 02:00: 0.9790
2025-07-28 07:00: 0.0210
2025-07-28 11:00: 0.9790
2025-07-28 16:00: 0.0210
2025-07-28 20:00: 0.9790
2025-07-29 01:00: 0.0205
2025-07-29 05:00: 0.9795
2025-07-29 10:00: 0.0205
2025-07-29 14:00: 0.9795
2025-07-29 19:00: 0.0205
2025-07-29 23:00: 0.9795
2025-07-30 04:00: 0.0205
2025-07-30 08:00: 0.9795
2025-07-30 13:00: 0.0205
2025-07-30 17:00: 0.9795
2025-07-30 22:00: 0.0205
2025-07-31 02:00: 0.9795
2025-07-31 07:00: 0.0205
2025-07-31 11:00: 0.9795
2025-07-31 16:00: 0.0205
2025-07-31 20:00: 0.9795
2025-08-01 01:00: 0.0205
2025-08-01 05:00: 0.9795
2025-08-01 10:00: 0.0205
2025-08-01 14:00: 0.9795
2025-08-01 19:00: 0.0205
2025-08-01 23:00: 0.9795
2025-08-02 04:00: 0.0205
2025-08-02 08:00: 0.9795
2025-08-02 13:00: 0.0205
2025-08-02 17:00: 0.9795
2025-08-02 22:00: 0.0205
2025-08-03 02:00: 0.9795
2025-08-03 07:00: 0.0205
2025-08-03 11:00: 0.9795
2025-08-03 16:00: 0.0205
2025-08-03 20:00: 0.9795
2025-08-04 01:00: 0.0205
2025-08-04 05:00: 0.9795
2025-08-04 10:00: 0.0205
2025-08-04 14:00: 0.9795
2025-08-04 19:00: 0.0205
2025-08-04 23:00: 0.9795
2025-08-05 04:00: 0.0205
2025-08-05 08:00: 0.9795
2025-08-05 13:00: 0.0205
2025-08-05 17:00: 0.9795
2025-08-05 22:00: 0.0210
2025-08-06 02:00: 0.9790
Trade Summary: No trades available

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 559657
Question: Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 1846945.465926
Price History:
2025-08-06 13:00: 0.0210
2025-08-06 17:00: 0.9790
2025-08-06 22:00: 0.9795
2025-08-07 02:00: 0.9795
2025-08-07 07:00: 0.9795
2025-08-07 11:00: 0.0205
2025-08-07 16:00: 0.9795
2025-08-07 20:00: 0.9795
2025-08-08 01:00: 0.0205
2025-08-08 05:00: 0.0205
2025-08-08 10:00: 0.9795
2025-08-08 14:00: 0.0205
2025-08-08 19:00: 0.9795
2025-08-08 23:00: 0.0205
2025-08-09 04:00: 0.9795
2025-08-09 08:00: 0.9795
2025-08-09 13:00: 0.0205
2025-08-09 17:00: 0.9795
2025-08-09 22:00: 0.0205
2025-08-10 02:00: 0.9795
2025-08-10 07:00: 0.0205
2025-08-10 11:00: 0.0205
2025-08-10 16:00: 0.9795
2025-08-10 20:00: 0.0205
2025-08-11 01:00: 0.0205
2025-08-11 05:00: 0.9795
2025-08-11 10:00: 0.9795
2025-08-11 14:00: 0.9795
2025-08-11 19:00: 0.0205
2025-08-11 23:00: 0.0205
2025-08-12 04:00: 0.0205
2025-08-12 08:00: 0.9795
2025-08-12 13:00: 0.0205
2025-08-12 17:00: 0.9795
2025-08-12 22:00: 0.0205
2025-08-13 02:00: 0.9795
2025-08-13 07:00: 0.0205
2025-08-13 11:00: 0.9795
2025-08-13 16:00: 0.9795
2025-08-13 20:00: 0.9795
2025-08-14 01:00: 0.9795
2025-08-14 05:00: 0.0205
2025-08-14 10:00: 0.9795
2025-08-14 14:00: 0.0205
2025-08-14 19:00: 0.0205
2025-08-14 23:00: 0.9795
2025-08-15 04:00: 0.9795
2025-08-15 08:00: 0.9795
2025-08-15 13:00: 0.0205
2025-08-15 17:00: 0.9795
Trade Summary: No trades available

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 559657
Question: Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 1846945.465926
Price History:
2025-08-16 04:00: 0.0205
2025-08-16 08:00: 0.0205
2025-08-16 13:00: 0.0205
2025-08-16 17:00: 0.0205
2025-08-16 22:00: 0.0205
2025-08-17 02:00: 0.9795
2025-08-17 07:00: 0.9795
2025-08-17 11:00: 0.9795
2025-08-17 16:00: 0.9795
2025-08-17 20:00: 0.0205
2025-08-18 01:00: 0.9795
2025-08-18 05:00: 0.0205
2025-08-18 10:00: 0.9795
2025-08-18 14:00: 0.0205
2025-08-18 19:00: 0.0205
2025-08-18 23:00: 0.0205
2025-08-19 04:00: 0.0205
2025-08-19 08:00: 0.9795
2025-08-19 13:00: 0.0205
2025-08-19 17:00: 0.0205
2025-08-19 22:00: 0.9795
2025-08-20 02:00: 0.9795
2025-08-20 07:00: 0.0205
2025-08-20 11:00: 0.9795
2025-08-20 16:00: 0.0205
2025-08-20 20:00: 0.9795
2025-08-21 01:00: 0.9795
2025-08-21 05:00: 0.0205
2025-08-21 10:00: 0.9795
2025-08-21 14:00: 0.0205
2025-08-21 19:00: 0.0205
2025-08-21 23:00: 0.9795
2025-08-22 04:00: 0.0205
2025-08-22 08:00: 0.0205
2025-08-22 13:00: 0.0205
2025-08-22 17:00: 0.0205
2025-08-22 22:00: 0.0205
2025-08-23 02:00: 0.9795
2025-08-23 07:00: 0.0205
2025-08-23 11:00: 0.9795
2025-08-23 16:00: 0.0205
2025-08-23 20:00: 0.9795
2025-08-24 01:00: 0.0205
2025-08-24 05:00: 0.9795
2025-08-24 10:00: 0.9795
2025-08-24 14:00: 0.0205
2025-08-24 19:00: 0.9795
2025-08-24 23:00: 0.9795
2025-08-25 04:00: 0.0205
2025-08-25 08:00: 0.9795
Trade Summary: No trades available

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 559657
Question: Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 1846945.465926
Price History:
2025-08-25 19:00: 0.0215
2025-08-25 23:00: 0.9785
2025-08-26 03:00: 0.0215
2025-08-26 07:00: 0.0215
2025-08-26 12:00: 0.0205
2025-08-26 16:00: 0.0205
2025-08-26 21:00: 0.0210
2025-08-27 01:00: 0.9790
2025-08-27 06:00: 0.9790
2025-08-27 10:00: 0.0210
2025-08-27 15:00: 0.0210
2025-08-27 19:00: 0.0205
2025-08-28 00:00: 0.9795
2025-08-28 04:00: 0.0210
2025-08-28 09:00: 0.0205
2025-08-28 13:00: 0.0205
2025-08-28 18:00: 0.9795
2025-08-28 22:00: 0.0210
2025-08-29 03:00: 0.0205
2025-08-29 07:00: 0.0205
2025-08-29 12:00: 0.9795
2025-08-29 16:00: 0.0205
2025-08-29 21:00: 0.9795
2025-08-30 01:00: 0.0205
2025-08-30 06:00: 0.0205
2025-08-30 10:00: 0.9795
2025-08-30 15:00: 0.0215
2025-08-30 19:00: 0.0215
2025-08-31 00:00: 0.0215
2025-08-31 04:00: 0.9790
2025-08-31 09:00: 0.0210
2025-08-31 13:00: 0.0210
2025-08-31 18:00: 0.0215
2025-08-31 22:00: 0.0215
2025-09-01 03:00: 0.0215
2025-09-01 07:00: 0.9785
2025-09-01 12:00: 0.0215
2025-09-01 16:00: 0.9785
2025-09-01 21:00: 0.0215
2025-09-02 01:00: 0.9795
2025-09-02 06:00: 0.9795
2025-09-02 10:00: 0.9795
2025-09-02 15:00: 0.9795
2025-09-02 19:00: 0.0205
2025-09-03 00:00: 0.0205
2025-09-03 04:00: 0.0205
2025-09-03 09:00: 0.9795
2025-09-03 13:00: 0.9795
2025-09-03 18:00: 0.0205
2025-09-03 22:00: 0.0205
Trade Summary: No trades available

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 559657
Question: Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 1846945.465926
Price History:
2025-09-04 09:00: 0.0205
2025-09-04 13:00: 0.0205
2025-09-04 18:00: 0.0205
2025-09-04 22:00: 0.9795
2025-09-05 03:00: 0.0205
2025-09-05 07:00: 0.9795
2025-09-05 12:00: 0.0205
2025-09-05 16:00: 0.9795
2025-09-05 21:00: 0.0205
2025-09-06 01:00: 0.0205
2025-09-06 06:00: 0.9775
2025-09-06 10:00: 0.0220
2025-09-06 15:00: 0.9780
2025-09-06 19:00: 0.0225
2025-09-07 00:00: 0.9795
2025-09-07 04:00: 0.0215
2025-09-07 09:00: 0.0220
2025-09-07 13:00: 0.9780
2025-09-07 18:00: 0.0205
2025-09-07 22:00: 0.0205
2025-09-08 03:00: 0.9795
2025-09-08 07:00: 0.9795
2025-09-08 12:00: 0.0205
2025-09-08 16:00: 0.9795
2025-09-08 21:00: 0.0205
2025-09-09 01:00: 0.9795
2025-09-09 06:00: 0.9795
2025-09-09 10:00: 0.0205
2025-09-09 15:00: 0.0205
2025-09-09 19:00: 0.9795
2025-09-10 00:00: 0.0205
2025-09-10 04:00: 0.9795
2025-09-10 09:00: 0.9795
2025-09-10 13:00: 0.9795
2025-09-10 18:00: 0.0205
2025-09-10 22:00: 0.9795
2025-09-11 03:00: 0.9795
2025-09-11 07:00: 0.9795
2025-09-11 12:00: 0.9795
2025-09-11 16:00: 0.9795
2025-09-11 21:00: 0.9795
2025-09-12 01:00: 0.9795
2025-09-12 06:00: 0.0205
2025-09-12 10:00: 0.9795
2025-09-12 15:00: 0.9795
2025-09-12 19:00: 0.0205
2025-09-13 00:00: 0.0205
2025-09-13 04:00: 0.9795
2025-09-13 09:00: 0.0205
2025-09-13 13:00: 0.9795
Trade Summary: No trades available

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 559657
Question: Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 1846945.465926
Price History:
2025-09-14 00:00: 0.0205
2025-09-14 04:00: 0.0205
2025-09-14 09:00: 0.0205
2025-09-14 13:00: 0.0205
2025-09-14 18:00: 0.9795
2025-09-14 22:00: 0.0205
2025-09-15 03:00: 0.0205
2025-09-15 07:00: 0.0205
2025-09-15 12:00: 0.0205
2025-09-15 16:00: 0.0205
2025-09-15 21:00: 0.9795
2025-09-16 01:00: 0.0205
2025-09-16 06:00: 0.9795
2025-09-16 10:00: 0.0205
2025-09-16 15:00: 0.0205
2025-09-16 19:00: 0.9795
2025-09-17 00:00: 0.0205
2025-09-17 04:00: 0.9785
2025-09-17 09:00: 0.9795
2025-09-17 13:00: 0.0205
2025-09-17 19:00: 0.9795
2025-09-17 23:00: 0.0205
2025-09-18 04:00: 0.9795
2025-09-18 08:00: 0.9795
2025-09-18 13:00: 0.0205
2025-09-18 17:00: 0.9795
2025-09-18 22:00: 0.0205
2025-09-19 02:00: 0.0205
2025-09-19 07:00: 0.9795
2025-09-19 11:00: 0.0205
2025-09-19 16:00: 0.9795
2025-09-19 20:00: 0.0205
2025-09-20 01:00: 0.0205
2025-09-20 05:00: 0.9795
2025-09-20 10:00: 0.0205
2025-09-20 14:00: 0.9795
2025-09-20 19:00: 0.0205
2025-09-20 23:00: 0.9795
2025-09-21 04:00: 0.9795
2025-09-21 08:00: 0.9795
2025-09-21 13:00: 0.0205
2025-09-21 17:00: 0.9795
2025-09-21 22:00: 0.0205
2025-09-22 02:00: 0.9795
2025-09-22 07:00: 0.9795
2025-09-22 11:00: 0.0205
2025-09-22 16:00: 0.9795
2025-09-22 20:00: 0.9795
2025-09-23 01:00: 0.9795
2025-09-23 05:00: 0.0205
Trade Summary: No trades available

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 559657
Question: Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 1846945.465926
Price History:
2025-09-23 16:00: 0.9795
2025-09-23 20:00: 0.0205
2025-09-24 01:00: 0.0205
2025-09-24 05:00: 0.0205
2025-09-24 10:00: 0.9790
2025-09-24 14:00: 0.0205
2025-09-24 19:00: 0.9795
2025-09-24 23:00: 0.0205
2025-09-25 04:00: 0.9795
2025-09-25 08:00: 0.9795
2025-09-25 13:00: 0.9795
2025-09-25 17:00: 0.0205
2025-09-25 22:00: 0.0205
2025-09-26 02:00: 0.9795
2025-09-26 07:00: 0.0210
2025-09-26 11:00: 0.0210
2025-09-26 16:00: 0.0215
2025-09-26 20:00: 0.0215
2025-09-27 01:00: 0.9780
2025-09-27 05:00: 0.9785
2025-09-27 10:00: 0.9785
2025-09-27 14:00: 0.9775
2025-09-27 19:00: 0.0230
2025-09-27 23:00: 0.9770
2025-09-28 04:00: 0.0210
2025-09-28 08:00: 0.9795
2025-09-28 13:00: 0.0235
2025-09-28 17:00: 0.9795
2025-09-28 22:00: 0.0205
2025-09-29 02:00: 0.9795
2025-09-29 07:00: 0.0205
2025-09-29 11:00: 0.9785
2025-09-29 16:00: 0.0215
2025-09-29 20:00: 0.9785
2025-09-30 01:00: 0.0205
2025-09-30 05:00: 0.9795
2025-09-30 10:00: 0.0215
2025-09-30 14:00: 0.9795
2025-09-30 19:00: 0.0215
2025-09-30 23:00: 0.9795
2025-10-01 04:00: 0.0205
2025-10-01 08:00: 0.0205
2025-10-01 13:00: 0.9785
2025-10-01 17:00: 0.0205
2025-10-01 22:00: 0.9795
2025-10-02 02:00: 0.9795
2025-10-02 07:00: 0.9785
2025-10-02 11:00: 0.0220
2025-10-02 16:00: 0.0220
2025-10-02 20:00: 0.9780
Trade Summary: No trades available

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 559657
Question: Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 1846945.465926
Price History:
2025-10-03 07:00: 0.0215
2025-10-03 11:00: 0.0215
2025-10-03 16:00: 0.0205
2025-10-03 20:00: 0.9795
2025-10-04 01:00: 0.0205
2025-10-04 05:00: 0.9795
2025-10-04 10:00: 0.0205
2025-10-04 14:00: 0.9795
2025-10-04 19:00: 0.0205
2025-10-04 23:00: 0.9785
2025-10-05 04:00: 0.0215
2025-10-05 08:00: 0.9765
2025-10-05 13:00: 0.0230
2025-10-05 17:00: 0.9775
2025-10-05 22:00: 0.9780
2025-10-06 02:00: 0.0225
2025-10-06 07:00: 0.9775
2025-10-06 11:00: 0.9775
2025-10-06 16:00: 0.0220
2025-10-06 20:00: 0.0220
2025-10-07 01:00: 0.9780
2025-10-07 05:00: 0.0210
2025-10-07 10:00: 0.9780
2025-10-07 14:00: 0.0225
2025-10-07 19:00: 0.9780
2025-10-07 23:00: 0.0215
2025-10-08 04:00: 0.0215
2025-10-08 08:00: 0.9785
2025-10-08 13:00: 0.0210
2025-10-08 17:00: 0.9785
2025-10-08 22:00: 0.9790
2025-10-09 02:00: 0.0210
2025-10-09 07:00: 0.0210
2025-10-09 11:00: 0.9790
2025-10-09 16:00: 0.9790
2025-10-09 20:00: 0.0210
2025-10-10 01:00: 0.0210
2025-10-10 05:00: 0.9790
2025-10-10 10:00: 0.9790
2025-10-10 14:00: 0.9785
2025-10-10 19:00: 0.0210
2025-10-10 23:00: 0.9790
2025-10-11 04:00: 0.9790
2025-10-11 08:00: 0.0215
2025-10-11 13:00: 0.9785
2025-10-11 17:00: 0.0215
2025-10-11 22:00: 0.0205
2025-10-12 02:00: 0.0205
2025-10-12 07:00: 0.0210
2025-10-12 11:00: 0.0215
Trade Summary: No trades available

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 559657
Question: Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 1846945.465926
Price History:
2025-10-12 22:00: 0.0225
2025-10-13 02:00: 0.0220
2025-10-13 07:00: 0.9775
2025-10-13 11:00: 0.0215
2025-10-13 16:00: 0.9785
2025-10-13 20:00: 0.0215
2025-10-14 01:00: 0.9785
2025-10-14 05:00: 0.0225
2025-10-14 10:00: 0.9785
2025-10-14 14:00: 0.9785
2025-10-14 19:00: 0.0205
2025-10-14 23:00: 0.0205
2025-10-15 04:00: 0.9795
2025-10-15 08:00: 0.0205
2025-10-15 13:00: 0.0205
2025-10-15 17:00: 0.9795
2025-10-15 22:00: 0.9795
2025-10-16 02:00: 0.9795
2025-10-16 07:00: 0.0205
2025-10-16 11:00: 0.9795
2025-10-16 16:00: 0.0205
2025-10-16 20:00: 0.0205
2025-10-17 01:00: 0.9795
2025-10-17 05:00: 0.0205
2025-10-17 10:00: 0.9795
2025-10-17 14:00: 0.0205
2025-10-17 19:00: 0.9790
2025-10-17 23:00: 0.9785
2025-10-18 04:00: 0.9785
2025-10-18 08:00: 0.9790
2025-10-18 13:00: 0.9790
2025-10-18 17:00: 0.0210
2025-10-18 22:00: 0.0210
2025-10-19 02:00: 0.9790
2025-10-19 07:00: 0.0210
2025-10-19 11:00: 0.9790
2025-10-19 16:00: 0.0210
2025-10-19 20:00: 0.0210
2025-10-20 01:00: 0.9790
2025-10-20 05:00: 0.0210
2025-10-20 10:00: 0.0215
2025-10-20 14:00: 0.9785
2025-10-20 19:00: 0.0215
2025-10-20 23:00: 0.9785
2025-10-21 04:00: 0.9795
2025-10-21 08:00: 0.0205
2025-10-21 13:00: 0.0215
2025-10-21 17:00: 0.9785
2025-10-21 22:00: 0.0220
2025-10-22 02:00: 0.9795
Trade Summary: No trades available

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 559657
Question: Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 1846945.465926
Price History:
2025-10-22 13:00: 0.0205
2025-10-22 17:00: 0.9815
2025-10-22 22:00: 0.0175
2025-10-23 02:00: 0.9865
2025-10-23 07:00: 0.0150
2025-10-23 11:00: 0.9855
2025-10-23 16:00: 0.0135
2025-10-23 20:00: 0.9865
2025-10-24 01:00: 0.0135
2025-10-24 05:00: 0.9865
2025-10-24 10:00: 0.0155
2025-10-24 14:00: 0.9845
2025-10-24 19:00: 0.0145
2025-10-24 23:00: 0.9855
2025-10-25 04:00: 0.0145
2025-10-25 08:00: 0.9855
2025-10-25 13:00: 0.0125
2025-10-25 17:00: 0.9875
2025-10-25 22:00: 0.0125
2025-10-26 02:00: 0.9880
2025-10-26 07:00: 0.0105
2025-10-26 11:00: 0.9895
2025-10-26 16:00: 0.0105
2025-10-26 20:00: 0.9905
2025-10-27 01:00: 0.0095
2025-10-27 05:00: 0.9910
2025-10-27 10:00: 0.0085
2025-10-27 14:00: 0.9915
2025-10-27 19:00: 0.0085
2025-10-27 23:00: 0.9915
2025-10-28 04:00: 0.0085
2025-10-28 08:00: 0.9915
2025-10-28 13:00: 0.0085
2025-10-28 17:00: 0.9930
2025-10-28 22:00: 0.0070
2025-10-29 02:00: 0.9930
2025-10-29 11:00: 0.0070
2025-10-29 15:00: 0.9925
2025-10-29 20:00: 0.0065
2025-10-30 00:00: 0.9935
2025-10-30 05:00: 0.0065
2025-10-30 09:00: 0.9935
2025-10-30 14:00: 0.0065
2025-10-30 18:00: 0.9935
2025-10-30 23:00: 0.0075
2025-10-31 03:00: 0.9925
2025-10-31 08:00: 0.0075
2025-10-31 12:00: 0.9925
2025-10-31 17:00: 0.0075
2025-10-31 21:00: 0.9925
Trade Summary: No trades available

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 559657
Question: Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 1846945.465926
Price History:
2025-11-01 08:00: 0.0075
2025-11-01 12:00: 0.9925
2025-11-01 17:00: 0.0075
2025-11-01 21:00: 0.9925
2025-11-02 01:00: 0.0075
2025-11-02 05:00: 0.9925
2025-11-02 10:00: 0.0075
2025-11-02 14:00: 0.9930
2025-11-02 19:00: 0.0075
2025-11-02 23:00: 0.9930
2025-11-03 04:00: 0.0065
2025-11-03 08:00: 0.9935
2025-11-03 13:00: 0.0065
2025-11-03 17:00: 0.9935
2025-11-03 22:00: 0.0065
2025-11-04 02:00: 0.9935
2025-11-04 07:00: 0.0065
2025-11-04 11:00: 0.9935
2025-11-04 16:00: 0.0065
2025-11-04 20:00: 0.9935
2025-11-05 01:00: 0.0065
2025-11-05 05:00: 0.9935
2025-11-05 10:00: 0.0065
2025-11-05 14:00: 0.9935
2025-11-05 19:00: 0.0065
2025-11-05 23:00: 0.9935
2025-11-06 04:00: 0.0065
2025-11-06 08:00: 0.9935
2025-11-06 13:00: 0.0065
2025-11-06 17:00: 0.9935
2025-11-06 22:00: 0.0060
2025-11-07 02:00: 0.9925
2025-11-07 07:00: 0.0065
2025-11-07 11:00: 0.9935
2025-11-07 16:00: 0.0065
2025-11-07 20:00: 0.9940
2025-11-08 01:00: 0.0065
2025-11-08 05:00: 0.9940
2025-11-08 10:00: 0.0065
2025-11-08 14:00: 0.9940
2025-11-08 19:00: 0.0060
2025-11-08 23:00: 0.9935
2025-11-09 04:00: 0.0065
2025-11-09 08:00: 0.9940
2025-11-09 13:00: 0.0065
2025-11-09 17:00: 0.9935
2025-11-09 22:00: 0.0065
2025-11-10 02:00: 0.9945
2025-11-10 07:00: 0.0055
2025-11-10 11:00: 0.9935
Trade Summary: No trades available

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 559657
Question: Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 1846945.465926
Price History:
2025-11-10 22:00: 0.0060
2025-11-11 02:00: 0.9940
2025-11-11 07:00: 0.0060
2025-11-11 11:00: 0.9940
2025-11-11 16:00: 0.0065
2025-11-11 20:00: 0.9945
2025-11-12 01:00: 0.0055
2025-11-12 05:00: 0.9945
2025-11-12 10:00: 0.0055
2025-11-12 14:00: 0.9945
2025-11-12 19:00: 0.0055
2025-11-12 23:00: 0.9945
2025-11-13 04:00: 0.0055
2025-11-13 08:00: 0.9945
2025-11-13 13:00: 0.0055
2025-11-13 17:00: 0.9945
2025-11-13 22:00: 0.0055
2025-11-14 02:00: 0.9945
2025-11-14 07:00: 0.0055
2025-11-14 11:00: 0.9945
2025-11-14 16:00: 0.0070
2025-11-14 20:00: 0.9930
2025-11-15 01:00: 0.0095
2025-11-15 05:00: 0.9875
2025-11-15 10:00: 0.0115
2025-11-15 14:00: 0.9895
2025-11-15 19:00: 0.0105
2025-11-15 23:00: 0.9895
2025-11-16 04:00: 0.0100
2025-11-16 08:00: 0.9890
2025-11-16 13:00: 0.0065
2025-11-16 17:00: 0.9935
2025-11-16 22:00: 0.0075
2025-11-17 02:00: 0.9915
2025-11-17 07:00: 0.0075
2025-11-17 11:00: 0.9915
2025-11-17 16:00: 0.0085
2025-11-17 20:00: 0.9910
2025-11-18 01:00: 0.0090
2025-11-18 05:00: 0.9910
2025-11-18 10:00: 0.0080
2025-11-18 14:00: 0.9920
2025-11-18 19:00: 0.0075
2025-11-18 23:00: 0.9925
2025-11-19 04:00: 0.0075
2025-11-19 08:00: 0.9930
2025-11-19 13:00: 0.0070
2025-11-19 17:00: 0.9925
2025-11-19 22:00: 0.0075
2025-11-20 02:00: 0.9920
Trade Summary: No trades available

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 559657
Question: Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Volume: 1846945.465926
Price History:
2025-07-11 15:00: 0.4000
2025-07-18 15:00: 0.9790
2025-07-18 23:00: 0.0140
2025-07-19 06:00: 0.9840
2025-07-19 14:00: 0.0160
2025-07-19 21:00: 0.9840
2025-07-20 05:00: 0.0160
2025-07-20 12:00: 0.9840
2025-07-20 20:00: 0.0160
2025-07-21 03:00: 0.9840
2025-07-21 11:00: 0.0160
2025-07-21 18:00: 0.9845
2025-07-22 02:00: 0.0160
2025-07-22 09:00: 0.9840
2025-07-22 17:00: 0.0160
2025-07-23 00:00: 0.9840
2025-07-23 07:00: 0.0165
2025-07-23 14:00: 0.9840
2025-07-23 22:00: 0.0155
2025-07-24 05:00: 0.9845
2025-07-24 13:00: 0.0160
2025-07-24 20:00: 0.9850
2025-07-25 04:00: 0.0150
2025-07-25 11:00: 0.9850
2025-07-25 19:00: 0.0145
2025-07-26 02:00: 0.9850
2025-07-26 10:00: 0.0150
2025-07-26 17:00: 0.9855
2025-07-27 01:00: 0.0145
2025-07-27 08:00: 0.9850
Trade Summary: No trades available
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 559657
Question: Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Volume: 1846945.465926
Price History:
2025-07-27 22:00: 0.0210
2025-07-28 05:00: 0.9790
2025-07-28 13:00: 0.0210
2025-07-28 20:00: 0.9790
2025-07-29 04:00: 0.0205
2025-07-29 11:00: 0.9795
2025-07-29 19:00: 0.0205
2025-07-30 02:00: 0.9795
2025-07-30 10:00: 0.0205
2025-07-30 17:00: 0.9795
2025-07-31 01:00: 0.0205
2025-07-31 08:00: 0.9795
2025-07-31 16:00: 0.0205
2025-07-31 23:00: 0.9795
2025-08-01 07:00: 0.0205
2025-08-01 14:00: 0.9795
2025-08-01 22:00: 0.0205
2025-08-02 05:00: 0.9795
2025-08-02 13:00: 0.0205
2025-08-02 20:00: 0.9795
2025-08-03 04:00: 0.0205
2025-08-03 11:00: 0.9795
2025-08-03 19:00: 0.0205
2025-08-04 02:00: 0.9795
2025-08-04 10:00: 0.0205
2025-08-04 17:00: 0.9795
2025-08-05 01:00: 0.0205
2025-08-05 08:00: 0.9795
2025-08-05 16:00: 0.0205
2025-08-05 23:00: 0.9790
Trade Summary: No trades available
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 559657
Question: Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Volume: 1846945.465926
Price History:
2025-08-06 13:00: 0.0210
2025-08-06 20:00: 0.9790
2025-08-07 04:00: 0.9795
2025-08-07 11:00: 0.0205
2025-08-07 19:00: 0.9795
2025-08-08 02:00: 0.0205
2025-08-08 10:00: 0.9795
2025-08-08 17:00: 0.0205
2025-08-09 01:00: 0.9795
2025-08-09 08:00: 0.9795
2025-08-09 16:00: 0.0205
2025-08-09 23:00: 0.0205
2025-08-10 07:00: 0.0205
2025-08-10 14:00: 0.9795
2025-08-10 22:00: 0.0205
2025-08-11 05:00: 0.9795
2025-08-11 13:00: 0.9795
2025-08-11 20:00: 0.9795
2025-08-12 04:00: 0.0205
2025-08-12 11:00: 0.9795
2025-08-12 19:00: 0.0205
2025-08-13 02:00: 0.9795
2025-08-13 10:00: 0.0205
2025-08-13 17:00: 0.0205
2025-08-14 01:00: 0.9795
2025-08-14 08:00: 0.9795
2025-08-14 16:00: 0.9795
2025-08-14 23:00: 0.9795
2025-08-15 07:00: 0.9795
2025-08-15 14:00: 0.9795
Trade Summary: No trades available
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 559657
Question: Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Volume: 1846945.465926
Price History:
2025-08-16 04:00: 0.0205
2025-08-16 11:00: 0.9795
2025-08-16 19:00: 0.0205
2025-08-17 02:00: 0.9795
2025-08-17 10:00: 0.9795
2025-08-17 17:00: 0.0205
2025-08-18 01:00: 0.9795
2025-08-18 08:00: 0.9795
2025-08-18 16:00: 0.9795
2025-08-18 23:00: 0.0205
2025-08-19 07:00: 0.9795
2025-08-19 14:00: 0.0205
2025-08-19 22:00: 0.9795
2025-08-20 05:00: 0.9795
2025-08-20 13:00: 0.0205
2025-08-20 20:00: 0.9795
2025-08-21 04:00: 0.0205
2025-08-21 11:00: 0.0205
2025-08-21 19:00: 0.0205
2025-08-22 02:00: 0.0205
2025-08-22 10:00: 0.0205
2025-08-22 17:00: 0.0205
2025-08-23 01:00: 0.9795
2025-08-23 08:00: 0.9795
2025-08-23 16:00: 0.0205
2025-08-23 23:00: 0.9795
2025-08-24 07:00: 0.9795
2025-08-24 14:00: 0.0205
2025-08-24 22:00: 0.9795
2025-08-25 05:00: 0.0205
Trade Summary: No trades available
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 559657
Question: Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Volume: 1846945.465926
Price History:
2025-08-25 19:00: 0.0215
2025-08-26 01:00: 0.0215
2025-08-26 09:00: 0.0210
2025-08-26 16:00: 0.0205
2025-08-27 00:00: 0.0210
2025-08-27 07:00: 0.0210
2025-08-27 15:00: 0.0210
2025-08-27 22:00: 0.0205
2025-08-28 06:00: 0.0205
2025-08-28 13:00: 0.0205
2025-08-28 21:00: 0.9790
2025-08-29 04:00: 0.0205
2025-08-29 12:00: 0.9795
2025-08-29 19:00: 0.9795
2025-08-30 03:00: 0.0205
2025-08-30 10:00: 0.9795
2025-08-30 18:00: 0.0215
2025-08-31 01:00: 0.9785
2025-08-31 09:00: 0.0210
2025-08-31 16:00: 0.0215
2025-09-01 00:00: 0.0215
2025-09-01 07:00: 0.9785
2025-09-01 15:00: 0.0215
2025-09-01 22:00: 0.9785
2025-09-02 06:00: 0.9795
2025-09-02 13:00: 0.0205
2025-09-02 21:00: 0.9795
2025-09-03 04:00: 0.0205
2025-09-03 12:00: 0.9795
2025-09-03 19:00: 0.0205
Trade Summary: No trades available
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 559657
Question: Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Volume: 1846945.465926
Price History:
2025-09-04 09:00: 0.0205
2025-09-04 16:00: 0.0205
2025-09-05 00:00: 0.0205
2025-09-05 07:00: 0.9795
2025-09-05 15:00: 0.0205
2025-09-05 22:00: 0.9795
2025-09-06 06:00: 0.9775
2025-09-06 13:00: 0.0220
2025-09-06 21:00: 0.9770
2025-09-07 04:00: 0.0215
2025-09-07 12:00: 0.9780
2025-09-07 19:00: 0.0205
2025-09-08 03:00: 0.9795
2025-09-08 10:00: 0.9795
2025-09-08 18:00: 0.0205
2025-09-09 01:00: 0.9795
2025-09-09 09:00: 0.0205
2025-09-09 16:00: 0.9795
2025-09-10 00:00: 0.0205
2025-09-10 07:00: 0.0205
2025-09-10 15:00: 0.0205
2025-09-10 22:00: 0.9795
2025-09-11 06:00: 0.0205
2025-09-11 13:00: 0.9795
2025-09-11 21:00: 0.9795
2025-09-12 04:00: 0.0205
2025-09-12 12:00: 0.9795
2025-09-12 19:00: 0.0205
2025-09-13 03:00: 0.9795
2025-09-13 10:00: 0.9795
Trade Summary: No trades available
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 559657
Question: Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Volume: 1846945.465926
Price History:
2025-09-14 00:00: 0.0205
2025-09-14 07:00: 0.0205
2025-09-14 15:00: 0.0205
2025-09-14 22:00: 0.0205
2025-09-15 06:00: 0.0205
2025-09-15 13:00: 0.9795
2025-09-15 21:00: 0.9795
2025-09-16 04:00: 0.9795
2025-09-16 12:00: 0.9795
2025-09-16 19:00: 0.9795
2025-09-17 03:00: 0.0215
2025-09-17 10:00: 0.0205
2025-09-17 19:00: 0.9795
2025-09-18 02:00: 0.0205
2025-09-18 10:00: 0.0205
2025-09-18 17:00: 0.9795
2025-09-19 01:00: 0.9795
2025-09-19 08:00: 0.9795
2025-09-19 16:00: 0.9795
2025-09-19 23:00: 0.0205
2025-09-20 07:00: 0.0205
2025-09-20 14:00: 0.9795
2025-09-20 22:00: 0.0205
2025-09-21 05:00: 0.9795
2025-09-21 13:00: 0.0205
2025-09-21 20:00: 0.9795
2025-09-22 04:00: 0.0205
2025-09-22 11:00: 0.0205
2025-09-22 19:00: 0.0205
2025-09-23 02:00: 0.0205
Trade Summary: No trades available
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 559657
Question: Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Volume: 1846945.465926
Price History:
2025-09-23 16:00: 0.9795
2025-09-23 23:00: 0.9795
2025-09-24 07:00: 0.9795
2025-09-24 14:00: 0.0205
2025-09-24 22:00: 0.9795
2025-09-25 05:00: 0.9795
2025-09-25 13:00: 0.9795
2025-09-25 20:00: 0.9795
2025-09-26 04:00: 0.9795
2025-09-26 11:00: 0.0210
2025-09-26 19:00: 0.9785
2025-09-27 02:00: 0.9785
2025-09-27 10:00: 0.9785
2025-09-27 17:00: 0.0230
2025-09-28 01:00: 0.9775
2025-09-28 08:00: 0.9795
2025-09-28 16:00: 0.0220
2025-09-28 23:00: 0.9795
2025-09-29 07:00: 0.0205
2025-09-29 14:00: 0.0215
2025-09-29 22:00: 0.0205
2025-09-30 05:00: 0.9795
2025-09-30 13:00: 0.0205
2025-09-30 20:00: 0.9785
2025-10-01 04:00: 0.0205
2025-10-01 11:00: 0.0205
2025-10-01 19:00: 0.9795
2025-10-02 02:00: 0.9795
2025-10-02 10:00: 0.9780
2025-10-02 17:00: 0.0220
Trade Summary: No trades available
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 559657
Question: Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Volume: 1846945.465926
Price History:
2025-10-03 07:00: 0.0215
2025-10-03 14:00: 0.9795
2025-10-03 22:00: 0.0205
2025-10-04 05:00: 0.9795
2025-10-04 13:00: 0.0205
2025-10-04 20:00: 0.9795
2025-10-05 04:00: 0.0215
2025-10-05 11:00: 0.9770
2025-10-05 19:00: 0.0225
2025-10-06 02:00: 0.0225
2025-10-06 10:00: 0.0225
2025-10-06 17:00: 0.9775
2025-10-07 01:00: 0.9780
2025-10-07 08:00: 0.9785
2025-10-07 16:00: 0.9780
2025-10-07 23:00: 0.0215
2025-10-08 07:00: 0.0215
2025-10-08 14:00: 0.0210
2025-10-08 22:00: 0.9790
2025-10-09 05:00: 0.9790
2025-10-09 13:00: 0.0210
2025-10-09 20:00: 0.0210
2025-10-10 04:00: 0.9790
2025-10-10 11:00: 0.0215
2025-10-10 19:00: 0.0210
2025-10-11 02:00: 0.9790
2025-10-11 10:00: 0.9785
2025-10-11 17:00: 0.0215
2025-10-12 01:00: 0.9795
2025-10-12 08:00: 0.9785
Trade Summary: No trades available
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 559657
Question: Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Volume: 1846945.465926
Price History:
2025-10-12 22:00: 0.0225
2025-10-13 05:00: 0.9770
2025-10-13 13:00: 0.9785
2025-10-13 20:00: 0.0215
2025-10-14 04:00: 0.9770
2025-10-14 11:00: 0.9785
2025-10-14 19:00: 0.0205
2025-10-15 02:00: 0.9795
2025-10-15 10:00: 0.9790
2025-10-15 17:00: 0.9795
2025-10-16 01:00: 0.9795
2025-10-16 08:00: 0.9795
2025-10-16 16:00: 0.0205
2025-10-16 23:00: 0.9795
2025-10-17 07:00: 0.0205
2025-10-17 14:00: 0.0205
2025-10-17 22:00: 0.9785
2025-10-18 05:00: 0.9790
2025-10-18 13:00: 0.9790
2025-10-18 20:00: 0.9790
2025-10-19 04:00: 0.9790
2025-10-19 11:00: 0.9790
2025-10-19 19:00: 0.9790
2025-10-20 02:00: 0.0210
2025-10-20 10:00: 0.0215
2025-10-20 17:00: 0.9785
2025-10-21 01:00: 0.9785
2025-10-21 08:00: 0.0205
2025-10-21 16:00: 0.0215
2025-10-21 23:00: 0.9795
Trade Summary: No trades available
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 559657
Question: Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Volume: 1846945.465926
Price History:
2025-10-22 13:00: 0.0205
2025-10-22 20:00: 0.9815
2025-10-23 04:00: 0.0135
2025-10-23 11:00: 0.9855
2025-10-23 19:00: 0.0135
2025-10-24 02:00: 0.9865
2025-10-24 10:00: 0.0155
2025-10-24 17:00: 0.9845
2025-10-25 01:00: 0.0145
2025-10-25 08:00: 0.9855
2025-10-25 16:00: 0.0125
2025-10-25 23:00: 0.9875
2025-10-26 07:00: 0.0105
2025-10-26 14:00: 0.9895
2025-10-26 22:00: 0.0095
2025-10-27 05:00: 0.9910
2025-10-27 13:00: 0.0085
2025-10-27 20:00: 0.9915
2025-10-28 04:00: 0.0085
2025-10-28 11:00: 0.9915
2025-10-28 19:00: 0.0070
2025-10-29 02:00: 0.9930
2025-10-29 14:00: 0.0075
2025-10-29 21:00: 0.9935
2025-10-30 05:00: 0.0065
2025-10-30 12:00: 0.9935
2025-10-30 20:00: 0.0065
2025-10-31 03:00: 0.9925
2025-10-31 11:00: 0.0075
2025-10-31 18:00: 0.9925
Trade Summary: No trades available
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 559657
Question: Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Volume: 1846945.465926
Price History:
2025-11-01 08:00: 0.0075
2025-11-01 15:00: 0.9925
2025-11-01 23:00: 0.0075
2025-11-02 05:00: 0.9925
2025-11-02 13:00: 0.0070
2025-11-02 20:00: 0.9930
2025-11-03 04:00: 0.0065
2025-11-03 11:00: 0.9935
2025-11-03 19:00: 0.0065
2025-11-04 02:00: 0.9935
2025-11-04 10:00: 0.0065
2025-11-04 17:00: 0.9935
2025-11-05 01:00: 0.0065
2025-11-05 08:00: 0.9935
2025-11-05 16:00: 0.0065
2025-11-05 23:00: 0.9935
2025-11-06 07:00: 0.0065
2025-11-06 14:00: 0.9935
2025-11-06 22:00: 0.0060
2025-11-07 05:00: 0.9935
2025-11-07 13:00: 0.0065
2025-11-07 20:00: 0.9940
2025-11-08 04:00: 0.0060
2025-11-08 11:00: 0.9935
2025-11-08 19:00: 0.0060
2025-11-09 02:00: 0.9940
2025-11-09 10:00: 0.0070
2025-11-09 17:00: 0.9935
2025-11-10 01:00: 0.0065
2025-11-10 08:00: 0.9945
Trade Summary: No trades available
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 559657
Question: Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Volume: 1846945.465926
Price History:
2025-11-10 22:00: 0.0060
2025-11-11 05:00: 0.9940
2025-11-11 13:00: 0.0060
2025-11-11 20:00: 0.9945
2025-11-12 04:00: 0.0060
2025-11-12 11:00: 0.9945
2025-11-12 19:00: 0.0055
2025-11-13 02:00: 0.9945
2025-11-13 10:00: 0.0055
2025-11-13 17:00: 0.9945
2025-11-14 01:00: 0.0055
2025-11-14 08:00: 0.9945
2025-11-14 16:00: 0.0070
2025-11-14 23:00: 0.9905
2025-11-15 07:00: 0.0115
2025-11-15 14:00: 0.9895
2025-11-15 22:00: 0.0105
2025-11-16 05:00: 0.9890
2025-11-16 13:00: 0.0065
2025-11-16 20:00: 0.9935
2025-11-17 04:00: 0.0075
2025-11-17 11:00: 0.9915
2025-11-17 19:00: 0.0090
2025-11-18 02:00: 0.9910
2025-11-18 10:00: 0.0080
2025-11-18 17:00: 0.9925
2025-11-19 01:00: 0.0075
2025-11-19 08:00: 0.9930
2025-11-19 16:00: 0.0070
2025-11-19 23:00: 0.9925
Trade Summary: No trades available
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 559659
Question: Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 1563847.546204
Price History:
2025-07-11 15:00: 0.1450
2025-07-18 12:00: 0.4950
2025-07-18 17:00: 0.0415
2025-07-18 21:00: 0.9595
2025-07-19 02:00: 0.0425
2025-07-19 06:00: 0.9575
2025-07-19 11:00: 0.0415
2025-07-19 15:00: 0.9585
2025-07-19 20:00: 0.0410
2025-07-20 00:00: 0.9590
2025-07-20 05:00: 0.0415
2025-07-20 09:00: 0.9590
2025-07-20 14:00: 0.0410
2025-07-20 18:00: 0.9590
2025-07-20 23:00: 0.0410
2025-07-21 03:00: 0.9590
2025-07-21 08:00: 0.0410
2025-07-21 12:00: 0.9590
2025-07-21 17:00: 0.0380
2025-07-21 21:00: 0.9630
2025-07-22 02:00: 0.0370
2025-07-22 06:00: 0.9630
2025-07-22 11:00: 0.0375
2025-07-22 15:00: 0.9625
2025-07-22 20:00: 0.0370
2025-07-23 00:00: 0.9630
2025-07-23 04:00: 0.0370
2025-07-23 08:00: 0.9630
2025-07-23 13:00: 0.0370
2025-07-23 17:00: 0.9635
2025-07-23 22:00: 0.0365
2025-07-24 02:00: 0.9630
2025-07-24 07:00: 0.0395
2025-07-24 11:00: 0.9600
2025-07-24 16:00: 0.0385
2025-07-24 20:00: 0.9615
2025-07-25 01:00: 0.0385
2025-07-25 05:00: 0.9615
2025-07-25 10:00: 0.0385
2025-07-25 14:00: 0.9605
2025-07-25 19:00: 0.0400
2025-07-25 23:00: 0.9600
2025-07-26 04:00: 0.0395
2025-07-26 08:00: 0.9615
2025-07-26 13:00: 0.0410
2025-07-26 17:00: 0.9585
2025-07-26 22:00: 0.0440
2025-07-27 02:00: 0.9560
2025-07-27 07:00: 0.0440
2025-07-27 11:00: 0.9490
Trade Summary: No trades available

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 559659
Question: Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 1563847.546204
Price History:
2025-07-27 22:00: 0.0510
2025-07-28 02:00: 0.9490
2025-07-28 07:00: 0.0510
2025-07-28 11:00: 0.9525
2025-07-28 16:00: 0.0475
2025-07-28 20:00: 0.9520
2025-07-29 01:00: 0.0480
2025-07-29 05:00: 0.9520
2025-07-29 10:00: 0.0480
2025-07-29 14:00: 0.9520
2025-07-29 19:00: 0.0480
2025-07-29 23:00: 0.9520
2025-07-30 04:00: 0.0480
2025-07-30 08:00: 0.9520
2025-07-30 13:00: 0.0470
2025-07-30 17:00: 0.9555
2025-07-30 22:00: 0.0415
2025-07-31 02:00: 0.9505
2025-07-31 07:00: 0.0490
2025-07-31 11:00: 0.9525
2025-07-31 16:00: 0.0505
2025-07-31 20:00: 0.9505
2025-08-01 01:00: 0.0490
2025-08-01 05:00: 0.9530
2025-08-01 10:00: 0.0470
2025-08-01 14:00: 0.9530
2025-08-01 19:00: 0.0475
2025-08-01 23:00: 0.9530
2025-08-02 04:00: 0.0475
2025-08-02 08:00: 0.9505
2025-08-02 13:00: 0.0495
2025-08-02 17:00: 0.9475
2025-08-02 22:00: 0.0525
2025-08-03 02:00: 0.9475
2025-08-03 07:00: 0.0525
2025-08-03 11:00: 0.9475
2025-08-03 16:00: 0.0525
2025-08-03 20:00: 0.9475
2025-08-04 01:00: 0.0525
2025-08-04 05:00: 0.9475
2025-08-04 10:00: 0.0525
2025-08-04 14:00: 0.9475
2025-08-04 19:00: 0.0540
2025-08-04 23:00: 0.9465
2025-08-05 04:00: 0.0535
2025-08-05 08:00: 0.9465
2025-08-05 13:00: 0.0535
2025-08-05 17:00: 0.9465
2025-08-05 22:00: 0.0540
2025-08-06 02:00: 0.9465
Trade Summary: No trades available

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 559659
Question: Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 1563847.546204
Price History:
2025-08-06 13:00: 0.0550
2025-08-06 17:00: 0.9450
2025-08-06 22:00: 0.0550
2025-08-07 02:00: 0.0545
2025-08-07 07:00: 0.9445
2025-08-07 11:00: 0.9445
2025-08-07 16:00: 0.0570
2025-08-07 20:00: 0.0570
2025-08-08 01:00: 0.0570
2025-08-08 05:00: 0.9430
2025-08-08 10:00: 0.0570
2025-08-08 14:00: 0.9435
2025-08-08 19:00: 0.0565
2025-08-08 23:00: 0.9435
2025-08-09 04:00: 0.0565
2025-08-09 08:00: 0.0565
2025-08-09 13:00: 0.9430
2025-08-09 17:00: 0.0570
2025-08-09 22:00: 0.9440
2025-08-10 02:00: 0.9475
2025-08-10 07:00: 0.0525
2025-08-10 11:00: 0.0520
2025-08-10 16:00: 0.9485
2025-08-10 20:00: 0.0505
2025-08-11 01:00: 0.0505
2025-08-11 05:00: 0.0505
2025-08-11 10:00: 0.9495
2025-08-11 14:00: 0.0530
2025-08-11 19:00: 0.9470
2025-08-11 23:00: 0.0520
2025-08-12 04:00: 0.9480
2025-08-12 08:00: 0.9490
2025-08-12 13:00: 0.0510
2025-08-12 17:00: 0.0515
2025-08-12 22:00: 0.0515
2025-08-13 02:00: 0.0520
2025-08-13 07:00: 0.0515
2025-08-13 11:00: 0.9485
2025-08-13 16:00: 0.0515
2025-08-13 20:00: 0.9485
2025-08-14 01:00: 0.9485
2025-08-14 05:00: 0.9490
2025-08-14 10:00: 0.0510
2025-08-14 14:00: 0.0510
2025-08-14 19:00: 0.0510
2025-08-14 23:00: 0.9490
2025-08-15 04:00: 0.0475
2025-08-15 08:00: 0.9525
2025-08-15 13:00: 0.9555
2025-08-15 17:00: 0.0445
Trade Summary: No trades available

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 559659
Question: Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 1563847.546204
Price History:
2025-08-16 04:00: 0.0480
2025-08-16 08:00: 0.9510
2025-08-16 13:00: 0.9510
2025-08-16 17:00: 0.9510
2025-08-16 22:00: 0.0475
2025-08-17 02:00: 0.9515
2025-08-17 07:00: 0.0495
2025-08-17 11:00: 0.9520
2025-08-17 16:00: 0.9520
2025-08-17 20:00: 0.9520
2025-08-18 01:00: 0.9485
2025-08-18 05:00: 0.9485
2025-08-18 10:00: 0.0515
2025-08-18 14:00: 0.0515
2025-08-18 19:00: 0.9495
2025-08-18 23:00: 0.0505
2025-08-19 04:00: 0.9495
2025-08-19 08:00: 0.0505
2025-08-19 13:00: 0.0515
2025-08-19 17:00: 0.0515
2025-08-19 22:00: 0.0515
2025-08-20 02:00: 0.0515
2025-08-20 07:00: 0.0510
2025-08-20 11:00: 0.0500
2025-08-20 16:00: 0.0510
2025-08-20 20:00: 0.9490
2025-08-21 01:00: 0.9485
2025-08-21 05:00: 0.9485
2025-08-21 10:00: 0.0510
2025-08-21 14:00: 0.9500
2025-08-21 19:00: 0.9500
2025-08-21 23:00: 0.0500
2025-08-22 04:00: 0.0470
2025-08-22 08:00: 0.9530
2025-08-22 13:00: 0.0470
2025-08-22 17:00: 0.0465
2025-08-22 22:00: 0.0460
2025-08-23 02:00: 0.9540
2025-08-23 07:00: 0.0465
2025-08-23 11:00: 0.0465
2025-08-23 16:00: 0.0480
2025-08-23 20:00: 0.9520
2025-08-24 01:00: 0.9520
2025-08-24 05:00: 0.9525
2025-08-24 10:00: 0.0480
2025-08-24 14:00: 0.9535
2025-08-24 19:00: 0.0465
2025-08-24 23:00: 0.0480
2025-08-25 04:00: 0.0475
2025-08-25 08:00: 0.0465
Trade Summary: No trades available

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 559659
Question: Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 1563847.546204
Price History:
2025-08-25 19:00: 0.9545
2025-08-25 23:00: 0.9550
2025-08-26 03:00: 0.0440
2025-08-26 07:00: 0.9545
2025-08-26 12:00: 0.9545
2025-08-26 16:00: 0.0455
2025-08-26 21:00: 0.0430
2025-08-27 01:00: 0.9585
2025-08-27 06:00: 0.0480
2025-08-27 10:00: 0.9510
2025-08-27 15:00: 0.9525
2025-08-27 19:00: 0.0475
2025-08-28 00:00: 0.9570
2025-08-28 04:00: 0.9545
2025-08-28 09:00: 0.0415
2025-08-28 13:00: 0.9580
2025-08-28 18:00: 0.0430
2025-08-28 22:00: 0.9585
2025-08-29 03:00: 0.0415
2025-08-29 07:00: 0.9585
2025-08-29 12:00: 0.9590
2025-08-29 16:00: 0.9590
2025-08-29 21:00: 0.0410
2025-08-30 01:00: 0.9590
2025-08-30 06:00: 0.0410
2025-08-30 10:00: 0.0410
2025-08-30 15:00: 0.0410
2025-08-30 19:00: 0.9590
2025-08-31 00:00: 0.0410
2025-08-31 04:00: 0.9590
2025-08-31 09:00: 0.0410
2025-08-31 13:00: 0.9570
2025-08-31 18:00: 0.0430
2025-08-31 22:00: 0.9570
2025-09-01 03:00: 0.0430
2025-09-01 07:00: 0.9570
2025-09-01 12:00: 0.9585
2025-09-01 16:00: 0.0415
2025-09-01 21:00: 0.9585
2025-09-02 01:00: 0.0415
2025-09-02 06:00: 0.0420
2025-09-02 10:00: 0.0420
2025-09-02 15:00: 0.0410
2025-09-02 19:00: 0.9580
2025-09-03 00:00: 0.9585
2025-09-03 04:00: 0.0420
2025-09-03 09:00: 0.9575
2025-09-03 13:00: 0.0420
2025-09-03 18:00: 0.9535
2025-09-03 22:00: 0.0445
Trade Summary: No trades available

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 559659
Question: Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 1563847.546204
Price History:
2025-09-04 09:00: 0.0430
2025-09-04 13:00: 0.9580
2025-09-04 18:00: 0.0420
2025-09-04 22:00: 0.9580
2025-09-05 03:00: 0.0425
2025-09-05 07:00: 0.9585
2025-09-05 12:00: 0.0420
2025-09-05 16:00: 0.9585
2025-09-05 21:00: 0.0470
2025-09-06 01:00: 0.0470
2025-09-06 06:00: 0.0470
2025-09-06 10:00: 0.9530
2025-09-06 15:00: 0.0460
2025-09-06 19:00: 0.0440
2025-09-07 00:00: 0.0480
2025-09-07 04:00: 0.0480
2025-09-07 09:00: 0.0495
2025-09-07 13:00: 0.9520
2025-09-07 18:00: 0.0450
2025-09-07 22:00: 0.9515
2025-09-08 03:00: 0.0475
2025-09-08 07:00: 0.0475
2025-09-08 12:00: 0.9525
2025-09-08 16:00: 0.9550
2025-09-08 21:00: 0.9550
2025-09-09 01:00: 0.0450
2025-09-09 06:00: 0.9550
2025-09-09 10:00: 0.0450
2025-09-09 15:00: 0.9550
2025-09-09 19:00: 0.9550
2025-09-10 00:00: 0.9550
2025-09-10 04:00: 0.0450
2025-09-10 09:00: 0.9555
2025-09-10 13:00: 0.0440
2025-09-10 18:00: 0.9555
2025-09-10 22:00: 0.0440
2025-09-11 03:00: 0.9555
2025-09-11 07:00: 0.9555
2025-09-11 12:00: 0.0440
2025-09-11 16:00: 0.0445
2025-09-11 21:00: 0.0445
2025-09-12 01:00: 0.9560
2025-09-12 06:00: 0.0440
2025-09-12 10:00: 0.0440
2025-09-12 15:00: 0.0440
2025-09-12 19:00: 0.9560
2025-09-13 00:00: 0.9565
2025-09-13 04:00: 0.9565
2025-09-13 09:00: 0.9565
2025-09-13 13:00: 0.9565
Trade Summary: No trades available

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 559659
Question: Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 1563847.546204
Price History:
2025-09-14 00:00: 0.0420
2025-09-14 04:00: 0.0420
2025-09-14 09:00: 0.9575
2025-09-14 13:00: 0.0425
2025-09-14 18:00: 0.0420
2025-09-14 22:00: 0.0420
2025-09-15 03:00: 0.9580
2025-09-15 07:00: 0.0415
2025-09-15 12:00: 0.0420
2025-09-15 16:00: 0.0420
2025-09-15 21:00: 0.0430
2025-09-16 01:00: 0.0415
2025-09-16 06:00: 0.9580
2025-09-16 10:00: 0.0425
2025-09-16 15:00: 0.9605
2025-09-16 19:00: 0.0375
2025-09-17 00:00: 0.9625
2025-09-17 04:00: 0.0375
2025-09-17 09:00: 0.9625
2025-09-17 13:00: 0.0375
2025-09-17 19:00: 0.9625
2025-09-17 23:00: 0.9625
2025-09-18 04:00: 0.0375
2025-09-18 08:00: 0.9635
2025-09-18 13:00: 0.9635
2025-09-18 17:00: 0.9635
2025-09-18 22:00: 0.0365
2025-09-19 02:00: 0.0355
2025-09-19 07:00: 0.9645
2025-09-19 11:00: 0.9640
2025-09-19 16:00: 0.9640
2025-09-19 20:00: 0.0345
2025-09-20 01:00: 0.9655
2025-09-20 05:00: 0.9655
2025-09-20 10:00: 0.9665
2025-09-20 14:00: 0.9665
2025-09-20 19:00: 0.0335
2025-09-20 23:00: 0.0325
2025-09-21 04:00: 0.9675
2025-09-21 08:00: 0.9675
2025-09-21 13:00: 0.9675
2025-09-21 17:00: 0.0395
2025-09-21 22:00: 0.0395
2025-09-22 02:00: 0.9605
2025-09-22 07:00: 0.9600
2025-09-22 11:00: 0.0400
2025-09-22 16:00: 0.9605
2025-09-22 20:00: 0.0395
2025-09-23 01:00: 0.9600
2025-09-23 05:00: 0.9605
Trade Summary: No trades available

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 559659
Question: Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 1563847.546204
Price History:
2025-09-23 16:00: 0.0385
2025-09-23 20:00: 0.0385
2025-09-24 01:00: 0.9630
2025-09-24 05:00: 0.9630
2025-09-24 10:00: 0.0385
2025-09-24 14:00: 0.0390
2025-09-24 19:00: 0.0380
2025-09-24 23:00: 0.9625
2025-09-25 04:00: 0.0360
2025-09-25 08:00: 0.9635
2025-09-25 13:00: 0.0380
2025-09-25 17:00: 0.9625
2025-09-25 22:00: 0.9635
2025-09-26 02:00: 0.0365
2025-09-26 07:00: 0.0360
2025-09-26 11:00: 0.9655
2025-09-26 16:00: 0.0345
2025-09-26 20:00: 0.9655
2025-09-27 01:00: 0.9665
2025-09-27 05:00: 0.0335
2025-09-27 10:00: 0.0325
2025-09-27 14:00: 0.9675
2025-09-27 19:00: 0.9675
2025-09-27 23:00: 0.9675
2025-09-28 04:00: 0.9675
2025-09-28 08:00: 0.9675
2025-09-28 13:00: 0.0325
2025-09-28 17:00: 0.9685
2025-09-28 22:00: 0.0315
2025-09-29 02:00: 0.9680
2025-09-29 07:00: 0.0325
2025-09-29 11:00: 0.9675
2025-09-29 16:00: 0.9695
2025-09-29 20:00: 0.9695
2025-09-30 01:00: 0.0305
2025-09-30 05:00: 0.9695
2025-09-30 10:00: 0.0315
2025-09-30 14:00: 0.9685
2025-09-30 19:00: 0.0305
2025-09-30 23:00: 0.9695
2025-10-01 04:00: 0.0315
2025-10-01 08:00: 0.0310
2025-10-01 13:00: 0.9685
2025-10-01 17:00: 0.0315
2025-10-01 22:00: 0.9680
2025-10-02 02:00: 0.9680
2025-10-02 07:00: 0.9685
2025-10-02 11:00: 0.0320
2025-10-02 16:00: 0.9680
2025-10-02 20:00: 0.0320
Trade Summary: No trades available

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 559659
Question: Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 1563847.546204
Price History:
2025-10-03 07:00: 0.0310
2025-10-03 11:00: 0.9690
2025-10-03 16:00: 0.0310
2025-10-03 20:00: 0.9690
2025-10-04 01:00: 0.9695
2025-10-04 05:00: 0.9695
2025-10-04 10:00: 0.9705
2025-10-04 14:00: 0.9705
2025-10-04 19:00: 0.9705
2025-10-04 23:00: 0.9705
2025-10-05 04:00: 0.0290
2025-10-05 08:00: 0.0305
2025-10-05 13:00: 0.9715
2025-10-05 17:00: 0.9715
2025-10-05 22:00: 0.0285
2025-10-06 02:00: 0.0275
2025-10-06 07:00: 0.9715
2025-10-06 11:00: 0.0285
2025-10-06 16:00: 0.0280
2025-10-06 20:00: 0.9725
2025-10-07 01:00: 0.9720
2025-10-07 05:00: 0.9720
2025-10-07 10:00: 0.0280
2025-10-07 14:00: 0.9720
2025-10-07 19:00: 0.0275
2025-10-07 23:00: 0.0265
2025-10-08 04:00: 0.9735
2025-10-08 08:00: 0.0265
2025-10-08 13:00: 0.0265
2025-10-08 17:00: 0.9725
2025-10-08 22:00: 0.0290
2025-10-09 02:00: 0.9715
2025-10-09 07:00: 0.9705
2025-10-09 11:00: 0.9705
2025-10-09 16:00: 0.9730
2025-10-09 20:00: 0.0290
2025-10-10 01:00: 0.0280
2025-10-10 05:00: 0.0280
2025-10-10 10:00: 0.9725
2025-10-10 14:00: 0.0280
2025-10-10 19:00: 0.9720
2025-10-10 23:00: 0.9720
2025-10-11 04:00: 0.0270
2025-10-11 08:00: 0.0315
2025-10-11 13:00: 0.9695
2025-10-11 17:00: 0.0305
2025-10-11 22:00: 0.9680
2025-10-12 02:00: 0.0290
2025-10-12 07:00: 0.9720
2025-10-12 11:00: 0.0285
Trade Summary: No trades available

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 559659
Question: Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 1563847.546204
Price History:
2025-10-12 22:00: 0.9740
2025-10-13 02:00: 0.0255
2025-10-13 07:00: 0.0250
2025-10-13 11:00: 0.9715
2025-10-13 16:00: 0.0260
2025-10-13 20:00: 0.9755
2025-10-14 01:00: 0.0250
2025-10-14 05:00: 0.9740
2025-10-14 10:00: 0.0235
2025-10-14 14:00: 0.9780
2025-10-14 19:00: 0.0215
2025-10-14 23:00: 0.0215
2025-10-15 04:00: 0.0215
2025-10-15 08:00: 0.9785
2025-10-15 13:00: 0.0215
2025-10-15 17:00: 0.9780
2025-10-15 22:00: 0.0220
2025-10-16 02:00: 0.9780
2025-10-16 07:00: 0.9790
2025-10-16 11:00: 0.0210
2025-10-16 16:00: 0.9790
2025-10-16 20:00: 0.9790
2025-10-17 01:00: 0.9790
2025-10-17 05:00: 0.0205
2025-10-17 10:00: 0.9790
2025-10-17 14:00: 0.0215
2025-10-17 19:00: 0.0225
2025-10-17 23:00: 0.0225
2025-10-18 04:00: 0.9780
2025-10-18 08:00: 0.0220
2025-10-18 13:00: 0.0225
2025-10-18 17:00: 0.9775
2025-10-18 22:00: 0.0220
2025-10-19 02:00: 0.0225
2025-10-19 07:00: 0.9775
2025-10-19 11:00: 0.0230
2025-10-19 16:00: 0.9780
2025-10-19 20:00: 0.0225
2025-10-20 01:00: 0.0230
2025-10-20 05:00: 0.9775
2025-10-20 10:00: 0.0230
2025-10-20 14:00: 0.0230
2025-10-20 19:00: 0.9775
2025-10-20 23:00: 0.0225
2025-10-21 04:00: 0.0225
2025-10-21 08:00: 0.9795
2025-10-21 13:00: 0.0220
2025-10-21 17:00: 0.9780
2025-10-21 22:00: 0.0205
2025-10-22 02:00: 0.9790
Trade Summary: No trades available

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 559659
Question: Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 1563847.546204
Price History:
2025-10-22 13:00: 0.0195
2025-10-22 17:00: 0.9805
2025-10-22 22:00: 0.0195
2025-10-23 02:00: 0.9805
2025-10-23 07:00: 0.0195
2025-10-23 11:00: 0.9805
2025-10-23 16:00: 0.0195
2025-10-23 20:00: 0.9805
2025-10-24 01:00: 0.0195
2025-10-24 05:00: 0.9805
2025-10-24 10:00: 0.0195
2025-10-24 14:00: 0.9805
2025-10-24 19:00: 0.0195
2025-10-24 23:00: 0.9805
2025-10-25 04:00: 0.0185
2025-10-25 08:00: 0.9815
2025-10-25 13:00: 0.0155
2025-10-25 17:00: 0.9845
2025-10-25 22:00: 0.0155
2025-10-26 02:00: 0.9835
2025-10-26 07:00: 0.0160
2025-10-26 11:00: 0.9845
2025-10-26 16:00: 0.0145
2025-10-26 20:00: 0.9855
2025-10-27 01:00: 0.0145
2025-10-27 05:00: 0.9870
2025-10-27 10:00: 0.0125
2025-10-27 14:00: 0.9890
2025-10-27 19:00: 0.0115
2025-10-27 23:00: 0.9885
2025-10-28 04:00: 0.0115
2025-10-28 08:00: 0.9885
2025-10-28 13:00: 0.0115
2025-10-28 17:00: 0.9885
2025-10-28 22:00: 0.0115
2025-10-29 02:00: 0.9890
2025-10-29 11:00: 0.0115
2025-10-29 15:00: 0.9885
2025-10-29 20:00: 0.0105
2025-10-30 00:00: 0.9895
2025-10-30 05:00: 0.0105
2025-10-30 09:00: 0.9895
2025-10-30 14:00: 0.0105
2025-10-30 18:00: 0.9895
2025-10-30 23:00: 0.0105
2025-10-31 03:00: 0.9895
2025-10-31 08:00: 0.0120
2025-10-31 12:00: 0.9875
2025-10-31 17:00: 0.0125
2025-10-31 21:00: 0.9885
Trade Summary: No trades available

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 559659
Question: Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 1563847.546204
Price History:
2025-11-01 08:00: 0.0135
2025-11-01 12:00: 0.9860
2025-11-01 17:00: 0.0135
2025-11-01 21:00: 0.9865
2025-11-02 01:00: 0.0135
2025-11-02 05:00: 0.9870
2025-11-02 10:00: 0.0135
2025-11-02 14:00: 0.9865
2025-11-02 19:00: 0.0125
2025-11-02 23:00: 0.9875
2025-11-03 04:00: 0.0120
2025-11-03 08:00: 0.9875
2025-11-03 13:00: 0.0125
2025-11-03 17:00: 0.9875
2025-11-03 22:00: 0.0120
2025-11-04 02:00: 0.9880
2025-11-04 07:00: 0.0115
2025-11-04 11:00: 0.9875
2025-11-04 16:00: 0.0150
2025-11-04 20:00: 0.9850
2025-11-05 01:00: 0.0145
2025-11-05 05:00: 0.9860
2025-11-05 10:00: 0.0140
2025-11-05 14:00: 0.9865
2025-11-05 19:00: 0.0140
2025-11-05 23:00: 0.9855
2025-11-06 04:00: 0.0145
2025-11-06 08:00: 0.9860
2025-11-06 13:00: 0.0145
2025-11-06 17:00: 0.9860
2025-11-06 22:00: 0.0140
2025-11-07 02:00: 0.9860
2025-11-07 07:00: 0.0130
2025-11-07 11:00: 0.9865
2025-11-07 16:00: 0.0135
2025-11-07 20:00: 0.9860
2025-11-08 01:00: 0.0145
2025-11-08 05:00: 0.9870
2025-11-08 10:00: 0.0125
2025-11-08 14:00: 0.9875
2025-11-08 19:00: 0.0135
2025-11-08 23:00: 0.9860
2025-11-09 04:00: 0.0140
2025-11-09 08:00: 0.9860
2025-11-09 13:00: 0.0145
2025-11-09 17:00: 0.9855
2025-11-09 22:00: 0.0135
2025-11-10 02:00: 0.9860
2025-11-10 07:00: 0.0135
2025-11-10 11:00: 0.9860
Trade Summary: No trades available

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 559659
Question: Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 1563847.546204
Price History:
2025-11-10 22:00: 0.0140
2025-11-11 02:00: 0.9860
2025-11-11 07:00: 0.0140
2025-11-11 11:00: 0.9865
2025-11-11 16:00: 0.0135
2025-11-11 20:00: 0.9865
2025-11-12 01:00: 0.0130
2025-11-12 05:00: 0.9870
2025-11-12 10:00: 0.0130
2025-11-12 14:00: 0.9870
2025-11-12 19:00: 0.0145
2025-11-12 23:00: 0.9855
2025-11-13 04:00: 0.0140
2025-11-13 08:00: 0.9860
2025-11-13 13:00: 0.0140
2025-11-13 17:00: 0.9860
2025-11-13 22:00: 0.0145
2025-11-14 02:00: 0.9855
2025-11-14 07:00: 0.0140
2025-11-14 11:00: 0.9850
2025-11-14 16:00: 0.0145
2025-11-14 20:00: 0.9850
2025-11-15 01:00: 0.0150
2025-11-15 05:00: 0.9850
2025-11-15 10:00: 0.0150
2025-11-15 14:00: 0.9845
2025-11-15 19:00: 0.0155
2025-11-15 23:00: 0.9840
2025-11-16 04:00: 0.0160
2025-11-16 08:00: 0.9840
2025-11-16 13:00: 0.0160
2025-11-16 17:00: 0.9840
2025-11-16 22:00: 0.0160
2025-11-17 02:00: 0.9840
2025-11-17 07:00: 0.0165
2025-11-17 11:00: 0.9840
2025-11-17 16:00: 0.0165
2025-11-17 20:00: 0.9840
2025-11-18 01:00: 0.0160
2025-11-18 05:00: 0.9840
2025-11-18 10:00: 0.0160
2025-11-18 14:00: 0.9835
2025-11-18 19:00: 0.0145
2025-11-18 23:00: 0.9850
2025-11-19 04:00: 0.0150
2025-11-19 08:00: 0.9850
2025-11-19 13:00: 0.0150
2025-11-19 17:00: 0.9845
2025-11-19 22:00: 0.0155
2025-11-20 02:00: 0.9850
Trade Summary: No trades available

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 559659
Question: Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Volume: 1563847.546204
Price History:
2025-07-11 15:00: 0.1450
2025-07-18 15:00: 0.9540
2025-07-18 23:00: 0.0420
2025-07-19 06:00: 0.9575
2025-07-19 14:00: 0.0420
2025-07-19 21:00: 0.9590
2025-07-20 05:00: 0.0415
2025-07-20 12:00: 0.9590
2025-07-20 20:00: 0.0410
2025-07-21 03:00: 0.9590
2025-07-21 11:00: 0.0410
2025-07-21 18:00: 0.9630
2025-07-22 02:00: 0.0370
2025-07-22 09:00: 0.9625
2025-07-22 17:00: 0.0365
2025-07-23 00:00: 0.9630
2025-07-23 07:00: 0.0370
2025-07-23 14:00: 0.9630
2025-07-23 22:00: 0.0365
2025-07-24 05:00: 0.9635
2025-07-24 13:00: 0.0400
2025-07-24 20:00: 0.9615
2025-07-25 04:00: 0.0385
2025-07-25 11:00: 0.9620
2025-07-25 19:00: 0.0400
2025-07-26 02:00: 0.9600
2025-07-26 10:00: 0.0390
2025-07-26 17:00: 0.9585
2025-07-27 01:00: 0.0440
2025-07-27 08:00: 0.9560
Trade Summary: No trades available
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 559659
Question: Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Volume: 1563847.546204
Price History:
2025-07-27 22:00: 0.0510
2025-07-28 05:00: 0.9490
2025-07-28 13:00: 0.0475
2025-07-28 20:00: 0.9520
2025-07-29 04:00: 0.0480
2025-07-29 11:00: 0.9520
2025-07-29 19:00: 0.0480
2025-07-30 02:00: 0.9520
2025-07-30 10:00: 0.0470
2025-07-30 17:00: 0.9555
2025-07-31 01:00: 0.0500
2025-07-31 08:00: 0.9505
2025-07-31 16:00: 0.0505
2025-07-31 23:00: 0.9505
2025-08-01 07:00: 0.0480
2025-08-01 14:00: 0.9530
2025-08-01 22:00: 0.0470
2025-08-02 05:00: 0.9505
2025-08-02 13:00: 0.0495
2025-08-02 20:00: 0.9475
2025-08-03 04:00: 0.0525
2025-08-03 11:00: 0.9475
2025-08-03 19:00: 0.0525
2025-08-04 02:00: 0.9475
2025-08-04 10:00: 0.0525
2025-08-04 17:00: 0.9475
2025-08-05 01:00: 0.0540
2025-08-05 08:00: 0.9465
2025-08-05 16:00: 0.0535
2025-08-05 23:00: 0.9465
Trade Summary: No trades available
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 559659
Question: Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Volume: 1563847.546204
Price History:
2025-08-06 13:00: 0.0550
2025-08-06 20:00: 0.9450
2025-08-07 04:00: 0.9445
2025-08-07 11:00: 0.9445
2025-08-07 19:00: 0.0570
2025-08-08 02:00: 0.0570
2025-08-08 10:00: 0.0570
2025-08-08 17:00: 0.9435
2025-08-09 01:00: 0.0565
2025-08-09 08:00: 0.0565
2025-08-09 16:00: 0.0570
2025-08-09 23:00: 0.9440
2025-08-10 07:00: 0.0525
2025-08-10 14:00: 0.9480
2025-08-10 22:00: 0.9495
2025-08-11 05:00: 0.0505
2025-08-11 13:00: 0.0535
2025-08-11 20:00: 0.0520
2025-08-12 04:00: 0.9480
2025-08-12 11:00: 0.9490
2025-08-12 19:00: 0.9485
2025-08-13 02:00: 0.0520
2025-08-13 10:00: 0.0515
2025-08-13 17:00: 0.0515
2025-08-14 01:00: 0.9485
2025-08-14 08:00: 0.9490
2025-08-14 16:00: 0.0510
2025-08-14 23:00: 0.9490
2025-08-15 07:00: 0.0475
2025-08-15 14:00: 0.9555
Trade Summary: No trades available
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 559659
Question: Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Volume: 1563847.546204
Price History:
2025-08-16 04:00: 0.0480
2025-08-16 11:00: 0.9510
2025-08-16 19:00: 0.0490
2025-08-17 02:00: 0.9515
2025-08-17 10:00: 0.9525
2025-08-17 17:00: 0.9520
2025-08-18 01:00: 0.9485
2025-08-18 08:00: 0.0515
2025-08-18 16:00: 0.9485
2025-08-18 23:00: 0.0505
2025-08-19 07:00: 0.9495
2025-08-19 14:00: 0.0515
2025-08-19 22:00: 0.0515
2025-08-20 05:00: 0.9490
2025-08-20 13:00: 0.0500
2025-08-20 20:00: 0.9490
2025-08-21 04:00: 0.0515
2025-08-21 11:00: 0.9495
2025-08-21 19:00: 0.9500
2025-08-22 02:00: 0.9530
2025-08-22 10:00: 0.0470
2025-08-22 17:00: 0.0465
2025-08-23 01:00: 0.9540
2025-08-23 08:00: 0.9535
2025-08-23 16:00: 0.0480
2025-08-23 23:00: 0.9520
2025-08-24 07:00: 0.0470
2025-08-24 14:00: 0.9535
2025-08-24 22:00: 0.0480
2025-08-25 05:00: 0.9525
Trade Summary: No trades available
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 559659
Question: Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Volume: 1563847.546204
Price History:
2025-08-25 19:00: 0.9545
2025-08-26 01:00: 0.0440
2025-08-26 09:00: 0.9545
2025-08-26 16:00: 0.0455
2025-08-27 00:00: 0.0410
2025-08-27 07:00: 0.0490
2025-08-27 15:00: 0.9525
2025-08-27 22:00: 0.9570
2025-08-28 06:00: 0.9565
2025-08-28 13:00: 0.9580
2025-08-28 21:00: 0.9575
2025-08-29 04:00: 0.0415
2025-08-29 12:00: 0.9590
2025-08-29 19:00: 0.0410
2025-08-30 03:00: 0.9590
2025-08-30 10:00: 0.0410
2025-08-30 18:00: 0.0410
2025-08-31 01:00: 0.0410
2025-08-31 09:00: 0.0410
2025-08-31 16:00: 0.9570
2025-09-01 00:00: 0.0430
2025-09-01 07:00: 0.9570
2025-09-01 15:00: 0.9585
2025-09-01 22:00: 0.0415
2025-09-02 06:00: 0.0420
2025-09-02 13:00: 0.9580
2025-09-02 21:00: 0.0420
2025-09-03 04:00: 0.0420
2025-09-03 12:00: 0.9580
2025-09-03 19:00: 0.0460
Trade Summary: No trades available
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 559659
Question: Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Volume: 1563847.546204
Price History:
2025-09-04 09:00: 0.0430
2025-09-04 16:00: 0.9580
2025-09-05 00:00: 0.9580
2025-09-05 07:00: 0.9585
2025-09-05 15:00: 0.0415
2025-09-05 22:00: 0.9530
2025-09-06 06:00: 0.0470
2025-09-06 13:00: 0.0465
2025-09-06 21:00: 0.9565
2025-09-07 04:00: 0.0480
2025-09-07 12:00: 0.0495
2025-09-07 19:00: 0.9550
2025-09-08 03:00: 0.0475
2025-09-08 10:00: 0.0470
2025-09-08 18:00: 0.9550
2025-09-09 01:00: 0.0450
2025-09-09 09:00: 0.9550
2025-09-09 16:00: 0.0450
2025-09-10 00:00: 0.9550
2025-09-10 07:00: 0.0445
2025-09-10 15:00: 0.0445
2025-09-10 22:00: 0.0440
2025-09-11 06:00: 0.9555
2025-09-11 13:00: 0.0440
2025-09-11 21:00: 0.0445
2025-09-12 04:00: 0.9560
2025-09-12 12:00: 0.0440
2025-09-12 19:00: 0.9560
2025-09-13 03:00: 0.0435
2025-09-13 10:00: 0.0435
Trade Summary: No trades available
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 559659
Question: Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Volume: 1563847.546204
Price History:
2025-09-14 00:00: 0.0420
2025-09-14 07:00: 0.0420
2025-09-14 15:00: 0.9575
2025-09-14 22:00: 0.0420
2025-09-15 06:00: 0.0425
2025-09-15 13:00: 0.9580
2025-09-15 21:00: 0.0430
2025-09-16 04:00: 0.9580
2025-09-16 12:00: 0.9585
2025-09-16 19:00: 0.0375
2025-09-17 03:00: 0.9625
2025-09-17 10:00: 0.0375
2025-09-17 19:00: 0.9625
2025-09-18 02:00: 0.9625
2025-09-18 10:00: 0.9635
2025-09-18 17:00: 0.9635
2025-09-19 01:00: 0.9645
2025-09-19 08:00: 0.0355
2025-09-19 16:00: 0.9640
2025-09-19 23:00: 0.0345
2025-09-20 07:00: 0.0335
2025-09-20 14:00: 0.9665
2025-09-20 22:00: 0.9675
2025-09-21 05:00: 0.0325
2025-09-21 13:00: 0.9675
2025-09-21 20:00: 0.9605
2025-09-22 04:00: 0.9605
2025-09-22 11:00: 0.0400
2025-09-22 19:00: 0.9605
2025-09-23 02:00: 0.0400
Trade Summary: No trades available
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 559659
Question: Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Volume: 1563847.546204
Price History:
2025-09-23 16:00: 0.0385
2025-09-23 23:00: 0.0385
2025-09-24 07:00: 0.0380
2025-09-24 14:00: 0.0390
2025-09-24 22:00: 0.0370
2025-09-25 05:00: 0.9635
2025-09-25 13:00: 0.0380
2025-09-25 20:00: 0.0365
2025-09-26 04:00: 0.0365
2025-09-26 11:00: 0.9655
2025-09-26 19:00: 0.9655
2025-09-27 02:00: 0.9665
2025-09-27 10:00: 0.0325
2025-09-27 17:00: 0.0325
2025-09-28 01:00: 0.0325
2025-09-28 08:00: 0.9675
2025-09-28 16:00: 0.0315
2025-09-28 23:00: 0.9685
2025-09-29 07:00: 0.0325
2025-09-29 14:00: 0.9675
2025-09-29 22:00: 0.0305
2025-09-30 05:00: 0.9695
2025-09-30 13:00: 0.0315
2025-09-30 20:00: 0.9695
2025-10-01 04:00: 0.0315
2025-10-01 11:00: 0.0315
2025-10-01 19:00: 0.9680
2025-10-02 02:00: 0.9680
2025-10-02 10:00: 0.9680
2025-10-02 17:00: 0.9680
Trade Summary: No trades available
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 559659
Question: Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Volume: 1563847.546204
Price History:
2025-10-03 07:00: 0.0310
2025-10-03 14:00: 0.9690
2025-10-03 22:00: 0.0305
2025-10-04 05:00: 0.9695
2025-10-04 13:00: 0.9705
2025-10-04 20:00: 0.9705
2025-10-05 04:00: 0.0290
2025-10-05 11:00: 0.0285
2025-10-05 19:00: 0.0285
2025-10-06 02:00: 0.0275
2025-10-06 10:00: 0.9715
2025-10-06 17:00: 0.0280
2025-10-07 01:00: 0.9720
2025-10-07 08:00: 0.0280
2025-10-07 16:00: 0.9720
2025-10-07 23:00: 0.0265
2025-10-08 07:00: 0.9735
2025-10-08 14:00: 0.9735
2025-10-08 22:00: 0.0290
2025-10-09 05:00: 0.9715
2025-10-09 13:00: 0.0290
2025-10-09 20:00: 0.0290
2025-10-10 04:00: 0.9730
2025-10-10 11:00: 0.0275
2025-10-10 19:00: 0.9720
2025-10-11 02:00: 0.9725
2025-10-11 10:00: 0.9685
2025-10-11 17:00: 0.0305
2025-10-12 01:00: 0.9710
2025-10-12 08:00: 0.0280
Trade Summary: No trades available
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 559659
Question: Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Volume: 1563847.546204
Price History:
2025-10-12 22:00: 0.9740
2025-10-13 05:00: 0.0255
2025-10-13 13:00: 0.0285
2025-10-13 20:00: 0.9755
2025-10-14 04:00: 0.0260
2025-10-14 11:00: 0.9770
2025-10-14 19:00: 0.0215
2025-10-15 02:00: 0.9785
2025-10-15 10:00: 0.0215
2025-10-15 17:00: 0.9780
2025-10-16 01:00: 0.0220
2025-10-16 08:00: 0.0210
2025-10-16 16:00: 0.9790
2025-10-16 23:00: 0.0210
2025-10-17 07:00: 0.9795
2025-10-17 14:00: 0.0215
2025-10-17 22:00: 0.0225
2025-10-18 05:00: 0.0220
2025-10-18 13:00: 0.0225
2025-10-18 20:00: 0.9775
2025-10-19 04:00: 0.0225
2025-10-19 11:00: 0.0230
2025-10-19 19:00: 0.9775
2025-10-20 02:00: 0.9770
2025-10-20 10:00: 0.0230
2025-10-20 17:00: 0.0225
2025-10-21 01:00: 0.9775
2025-10-21 08:00: 0.9795
2025-10-21 16:00: 0.0220
2025-10-21 23:00: 0.9785
Trade Summary: No trades available
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 559659
Question: Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Volume: 1563847.546204
Price History:
2025-10-22 13:00: 0.0195
2025-10-22 20:00: 0.9805
2025-10-23 04:00: 0.0195
2025-10-23 11:00: 0.9805
2025-10-23 19:00: 0.0195
2025-10-24 02:00: 0.9805
2025-10-24 10:00: 0.0195
2025-10-24 17:00: 0.9805
2025-10-25 01:00: 0.0185
2025-10-25 08:00: 0.9815
2025-10-25 16:00: 0.0155
2025-10-25 23:00: 0.9840
2025-10-26 07:00: 0.0160
2025-10-26 14:00: 0.9850
2025-10-26 22:00: 0.0145
2025-10-27 05:00: 0.9870
2025-10-27 13:00: 0.0125
2025-10-27 20:00: 0.9885
2025-10-28 04:00: 0.0115
2025-10-28 11:00: 0.9885
2025-10-28 19:00: 0.0115
2025-10-29 02:00: 0.9890
2025-10-29 14:00: 0.0115
2025-10-29 21:00: 0.9895
2025-10-30 05:00: 0.0105
2025-10-30 12:00: 0.9895
2025-10-30 20:00: 0.0105
2025-10-31 03:00: 0.9895
2025-10-31 11:00: 0.0125
2025-10-31 18:00: 0.9880
Trade Summary: No trades available
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 559659
Question: Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Volume: 1563847.546204
Price History:
2025-11-01 08:00: 0.0135
2025-11-01 15:00: 0.9860
2025-11-01 23:00: 0.0135
2025-11-02 05:00: 0.9870
2025-11-02 13:00: 0.0135
2025-11-02 20:00: 0.9875
2025-11-03 04:00: 0.0120
2025-11-03 11:00: 0.9875
2025-11-03 19:00: 0.0125
2025-11-04 02:00: 0.9880
2025-11-04 10:00: 0.0115
2025-11-04 17:00: 0.9850
2025-11-05 01:00: 0.0145
2025-11-05 08:00: 0.9860
2025-11-05 16:00: 0.0145
2025-11-05 23:00: 0.9855
2025-11-06 07:00: 0.0135
2025-11-06 14:00: 0.9860
2025-11-06 22:00: 0.0140
2025-11-07 05:00: 0.9865
2025-11-07 13:00: 0.0135
2025-11-07 20:00: 0.9860
2025-11-08 04:00: 0.0130
2025-11-08 11:00: 0.9875
2025-11-08 19:00: 0.0135
2025-11-09 02:00: 0.9860
2025-11-09 10:00: 0.0140
2025-11-09 17:00: 0.9855
2025-11-10 01:00: 0.0140
2025-11-10 08:00: 0.9865
Trade Summary: No trades available
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 559659
Question: Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Volume: 1563847.546204
Price History:
2025-11-10 22:00: 0.0140
2025-11-11 05:00: 0.9860
2025-11-11 13:00: 0.0135
2025-11-11 20:00: 0.9865
2025-11-12 04:00: 0.0125
2025-11-12 11:00: 0.9870
2025-11-12 19:00: 0.0145
2025-11-13 02:00: 0.9860
2025-11-13 10:00: 0.0145
2025-11-13 17:00: 0.9860
2025-11-14 01:00: 0.0145
2025-11-14 08:00: 0.9850
2025-11-14 16:00: 0.0145
2025-11-14 23:00: 0.9850
2025-11-15 07:00: 0.0150
2025-11-15 14:00: 0.9845
2025-11-15 22:00: 0.0160
2025-11-16 05:00: 0.9840
2025-11-16 13:00: 0.0160
2025-11-16 20:00: 0.9840
2025-11-17 04:00: 0.0165
2025-11-17 11:00: 0.9840
2025-11-17 19:00: 0.0160
2025-11-18 02:00: 0.9840
2025-11-18 10:00: 0.0160
2025-11-18 17:00: 0.9850
2025-11-19 01:00: 0.0150
2025-11-19 08:00: 0.9850
2025-11-19 16:00: 0.0155
2025-11-19 23:00: 0.9845
Trade Summary: No trades available
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 559687
Question: Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 13500199.758736
Price History:
2025-07-25 14:00: 0.0250
2025-07-25 18:00: 0.0055
2025-07-25 22:00: 0.0105
2025-07-26 02:00: 0.0065
2025-07-26 06:00: 0.0025
2025-07-26 10:00: 0.0015
2025-07-26 14:00: 0.0015
2025-07-26 18:00: 0.0015
2025-07-26 22:00: 0.0015
2025-07-27 02:00: 0.0015
2025-07-27 06:00: 0.0015
2025-07-27 10:00: 0.0015
2025-07-27 14:00: 0.0015
2025-07-27 18:00: 0.0015
2025-07-27 22:00: 0.0015
2025-07-28 02:00: 0.0015
2025-07-28 06:00: 0.0015
2025-07-28 10:00: 0.0015
2025-07-28 14:00: 0.0015
2025-07-28 18:00: 0.0025
2025-07-28 22:00: 0.0025
2025-07-29 02:00: 0.0025
2025-07-29 06:00: 0.0025
2025-07-29 10:00: 0.0025
2025-07-29 14:00: 0.0025
2025-07-29 18:00: 0.0025
2025-07-29 22:00: 0.0025
2025-07-30 02:00: 0.0025
2025-07-30 06:00: 0.0025
2025-07-30 10:00: 0.0025
2025-07-30 14:00: 0.0025
2025-07-30 18:00: 0.0025
2025-07-30 22:00: 0.0025
2025-07-31 02:00: 0.0025
2025-07-31 06:00: 0.0025
2025-07-31 10:00: 0.0025
2025-07-31 14:00: 0.0025
2025-07-31 18:00: 0.0025
2025-07-31 22:00: 0.0025
2025-08-01 02:00: 0.0025
2025-08-01 06:00: 0.0025
2025-08-01 10:00: 0.0025
2025-08-01 14:00: 0.0025
2025-08-01 18:00: 0.0025
2025-08-01 22:00: 0.0025
2025-08-02 02:00: 0.0025
2025-08-02 06:00: 0.0025
2025-08-02 10:00: 0.0025
2025-08-02 14:00: 0.0025
2025-08-02 18:00: 0.0025
Trade Summary: No trades available

Output: No


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 559687
Question: Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 13500199.758736
Price History:
2025-08-03 15:00: 0.9975
2025-08-03 19:00: 0.9975
2025-08-03 23:00: 0.9975
2025-08-04 03:00: 0.9975
2025-08-04 07:00: 0.9975
2025-08-04 11:00: 0.9975
2025-08-04 15:00: 0.9975
2025-08-04 19:00: 0.9975
2025-08-04 23:00: 0.9975
2025-08-05 03:00: 0.9975
2025-08-05 07:00: 0.9975
2025-08-05 11:00: 0.9975
2025-08-05 15:00: 0.9975
2025-08-05 19:00: 0.9975
2025-08-05 23:00: 0.9975
2025-08-06 03:00: 0.9975
2025-08-06 07:00: 0.9975
2025-08-06 11:00: 0.9975
2025-08-06 15:00: 0.9975
2025-08-06 19:00: 0.0035
2025-08-06 23:00: 0.0035
2025-08-07 03:00: 0.9965
2025-08-07 07:00: 0.0025
2025-08-07 11:00: 0.0025
2025-08-07 15:00: 0.9965
2025-08-07 19:00: 0.9965
2025-08-07 23:00: 0.9965
2025-08-08 03:00: 0.0035
2025-08-08 07:00: 0.0035
2025-08-08 11:00: 0.9965
2025-08-08 15:00: 0.0035
2025-08-08 19:00: 0.0035
2025-08-08 23:00: 0.9965
2025-08-09 03:00: 0.9965
2025-08-09 07:00: 0.0035
2025-08-09 11:00: 0.0035
2025-08-09 15:00: 0.0045
2025-08-09 19:00: 0.0045
2025-08-09 23:00: 0.0045
2025-08-10 03:00: 0.0045
2025-08-10 07:00: 0.0075
2025-08-10 11:00: 0.9915
2025-08-10 15:00: 0.9915
2025-08-10 19:00: 0.0085
2025-08-10 23:00: 0.9915
2025-08-11 03:00: 0.9915
2025-08-11 07:00: 0.0085
2025-08-11 11:00: 0.9935
2025-08-11 15:00: 0.0065
2025-08-11 19:00: 0.9940
Trade Summary: No trades available

Output: No


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 559687
Question: Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 13500199.758736
Price History:
2025-08-12 17:00: 0.9940
2025-08-12 21:00: 0.9935
2025-08-13 01:00: 0.0065
2025-08-13 05:00: 0.0060
2025-08-13 09:00: 0.0060
2025-08-13 13:00: 0.0060
2025-08-13 17:00: 0.9940
2025-08-13 21:00: 0.0060
2025-08-14 01:00: 0.9940
2025-08-14 05:00: 0.9945
2025-08-14 09:00: 0.9945
2025-08-14 13:00: 0.9945
2025-08-14 17:00: 0.9945
2025-08-14 21:00: 0.9945
2025-08-15 01:00: 0.9950
2025-08-15 05:00: 0.0035
2025-08-15 09:00: 0.0035
2025-08-15 13:00: 0.0035
2025-08-15 17:00: 0.0050
2025-08-15 21:00: 0.0050
2025-08-16 01:00: 0.0050
2025-08-16 05:00: 0.0050
2025-08-16 09:00: 0.9950
2025-08-16 13:00: 0.9950
2025-08-16 17:00: 0.9950
2025-08-16 21:00: 0.9955
2025-08-17 01:00: 0.9955
2025-08-17 05:00: 0.0045
2025-08-17 09:00: 0.0045
2025-08-17 13:00: 0.9955
2025-08-17 17:00: 0.0045
2025-08-17 21:00: 0.0045
2025-08-18 01:00: 0.0045
2025-08-18 05:00: 0.9955
2025-08-18 09:00: 0.9965
2025-08-18 13:00: 0.0035
2025-08-18 17:00: 0.0035
2025-08-18 21:00: 0.0035
2025-08-19 01:00: 0.9965
2025-08-19 05:00: 0.9965
2025-08-19 09:00: 0.0035
2025-08-19 13:00: 0.9965
2025-08-19 17:00: 0.0035
2025-08-19 21:00: 0.0035
2025-08-20 01:00: 0.0035
2025-08-20 05:00: 0.0035
2025-08-20 09:00: 0.0035
2025-08-20 13:00: 0.9965
2025-08-20 17:00: 0.0035
2025-08-20 21:00: 0.0035
Trade Summary: No trades available

Output: No


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 559687
Question: Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 13500199.758736
Price History:
2025-08-21 18:00: 0.0035
2025-08-21 22:00: 0.9965
2025-08-22 02:00: 0.9965
2025-08-22 06:00: 0.9965
2025-08-22 10:00: 0.9965
2025-08-22 14:00: 0.0035
2025-08-22 18:00: 0.9965
2025-08-22 22:00: 0.9965
2025-08-23 02:00: 0.9965
2025-08-23 06:00: 0.9965
2025-08-23 10:00: 0.9960
2025-08-23 14:00: 0.9960
2025-08-23 18:00: 0.9960
2025-08-23 22:00: 0.9955
2025-08-24 02:00: 0.9955
2025-08-24 06:00: 0.9955
2025-08-24 10:00: 0.9955
2025-08-24 14:00: 0.9955
2025-08-24 18:00: 0.9965
2025-08-24 22:00: 0.9960
2025-08-25 02:00: 0.9960
2025-08-25 06:00: 0.0045
2025-08-25 10:00: 0.0045
2025-08-25 14:00: 0.0040
2025-08-25 18:00: 0.0040
2025-08-25 22:00: 0.0035
2025-08-26 01:00: 0.9965
2025-08-26 05:00: 0.0035
2025-08-26 09:00: 0.9965
2025-08-26 13:00: 0.9965
2025-08-26 17:00: 0.0035
2025-08-26 21:00: 0.9965
2025-08-27 01:00: 0.9965
2025-08-27 05:00: 0.9965
2025-08-27 09:00: 0.9965
2025-08-27 13:00: 0.9965
2025-08-27 17:00: 0.0035
2025-08-27 21:00: 0.0035
2025-08-28 01:00: 0.9965
2025-08-28 05:00: 0.0035
2025-08-28 09:00: 0.0035
2025-08-28 13:00: 0.9965
2025-08-28 17:00: 0.9965
2025-08-28 21:00: 0.9965
2025-08-29 01:00: 0.0035
2025-08-29 05:00: 0.9965
2025-08-29 09:00: 0.0035
2025-08-29 13:00: 0.0035
2025-08-29 17:00: 0.9965
2025-08-29 21:00: 0.0035
Trade Summary: No trades available

Output: No


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 559687
Question: Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 13500199.758736
Price History:
2025-08-30 19:00: 0.9965
2025-08-30 23:00: 0.9965
2025-08-31 03:00: 0.9965
2025-08-31 07:00: 0.0035
2025-08-31 11:00: 0.9965
2025-08-31 15:00: 0.9965
2025-08-31 19:00: 0.0035
2025-08-31 23:00: 0.9965
2025-09-01 03:00: 0.9965
2025-09-01 07:00: 0.0035
2025-09-01 11:00: 0.0035
2025-09-01 15:00: 0.0035
2025-09-01 19:00: 0.0035
2025-09-01 23:00: 0.9965
2025-09-02 03:00: 0.0035
2025-09-02 07:00: 0.0035
2025-09-02 11:00: 0.0035
2025-09-02 15:00: 0.9965
2025-09-02 19:00: 0.0035
2025-09-02 23:00: 0.0035
2025-09-03 03:00: 0.0035
2025-09-03 07:00: 0.0035
2025-09-03 11:00: 0.0035
2025-09-03 15:00: 0.0035
2025-09-03 19:00: 0.0035
2025-09-03 23:00: 0.0035
2025-09-04 03:00: 0.0035
2025-09-04 07:00: 0.0035
2025-09-04 11:00: 0.0040
2025-09-04 15:00: 0.0045
2025-09-04 19:00: 0.9955
2025-09-04 23:00: 0.0045
2025-09-05 03:00: 0.0045
2025-09-05 07:00: 0.0045
2025-09-05 11:00: 0.9955
2025-09-05 15:00: 0.0045
2025-09-05 19:00: 0.0045
2025-09-05 23:00: 0.0045
2025-09-06 03:00: 0.9955
2025-09-06 07:00: 0.0045
2025-09-06 11:00: 0.9950
2025-09-06 15:00: 0.9950
2025-09-06 19:00: 0.9945
2025-09-06 23:00: 0.9945
2025-09-07 03:00: 0.0055
2025-09-07 07:00: 0.9945
2025-09-07 11:00: 0.0055
2025-09-07 15:00: 0.9955
2025-09-07 19:00: 0.0045
2025-09-07 23:00: 0.9955
Trade Summary: No trades available

Output: No


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 559687
Question: Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 13500199.758736
Price History:
2025-09-08 20:00: 0.9955
2025-09-09 00:00: 0.0045
2025-09-09 04:00: 0.9955
2025-09-09 08:00: 0.9955
2025-09-09 12:00: 0.0045
2025-09-09 16:00: 0.0045
2025-09-09 20:00: 0.9955
2025-09-10 00:00: 0.0045
2025-09-10 04:00: 0.9955
2025-09-10 08:00: 0.9955
2025-09-10 12:00: 0.9955
2025-09-10 16:00: 0.0045
2025-09-10 20:00: 0.9955
2025-09-11 00:00: 0.0045
2025-09-11 04:00: 0.0045
2025-09-11 08:00: 0.9955
2025-09-11 12:00: 0.9955
2025-09-11 16:00: 0.9955
2025-09-11 20:00: 0.0045
2025-09-12 00:00: 0.9955
2025-09-12 04:00: 0.9955
2025-09-12 08:00: 0.0045
2025-09-12 12:00: 0.0045
2025-09-12 16:00: 0.0045
2025-09-12 20:00: 0.0045
2025-09-13 00:00: 0.0045
2025-09-13 04:00: 0.0045
2025-09-13 08:00: 0.0045
2025-09-13 12:00: 0.9955
2025-09-13 16:00: 0.0045
2025-09-13 20:00: 0.0045
2025-09-14 00:00: 0.9955
2025-09-14 04:00: 0.0045
2025-09-14 08:00: 0.0045
2025-09-14 12:00: 0.0045
2025-09-14 16:00: 0.0045
2025-09-14 20:00: 0.0045
2025-09-15 00:00: 0.0045
2025-09-15 04:00: 0.9955
2025-09-15 08:00: 0.0045
2025-09-15 12:00: 0.0045
2025-09-15 16:00: 0.0045
2025-09-15 20:00: 0.9955
2025-09-16 00:00: 0.9955
2025-09-16 04:00: 0.9955
2025-09-16 08:00: 0.0045
2025-09-16 12:00: 0.9955
2025-09-16 16:00: 0.0045
2025-09-16 20:00: 0.0045
2025-09-17 00:00: 0.0045
Trade Summary: No trades available

Output: No


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 559687
Question: Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 13500199.758736
Price History:
2025-09-17 23:00: 0.0045
2025-09-18 03:00: 0.0045
2025-09-18 07:00: 0.0045
2025-09-18 11:00: 0.0045
2025-09-18 15:00: 0.9955
2025-09-18 19:00: 0.9955
2025-09-18 23:00: 0.9955
2025-09-19 03:00: 0.9955
2025-09-19 07:00: 0.9955
2025-09-19 11:00: 0.9955
2025-09-19 15:00: 0.0045
2025-09-19 19:00: 0.0045
2025-09-19 23:00: 0.9955
2025-09-20 03:00: 0.9955
2025-09-20 07:00: 0.0045
2025-09-20 11:00: 0.0045
2025-09-20 15:00: 0.0045
2025-09-20 19:00: 0.0045
2025-09-20 23:00: 0.0045
2025-09-21 03:00: 0.9955
2025-09-21 07:00: 0.0045
2025-09-21 11:00: 0.9955
2025-09-21 15:00: 0.0045
2025-09-21 19:00: 0.0045
2025-09-21 23:00: 0.0045
2025-09-22 03:00: 0.0045
2025-09-22 07:00: 0.0045
2025-09-22 11:00: 0.9955
2025-09-22 15:00: 0.0045
2025-09-22 19:00: 0.0045
2025-09-22 23:00: 0.0045
2025-09-23 03:00: 0.9955
2025-09-23 07:00: 0.0045
2025-09-23 11:00: 0.9955
2025-09-23 15:00: 0.9955
2025-09-23 19:00: 0.9955
2025-09-23 23:00: 0.0045
2025-09-24 03:00: 0.9955
2025-09-24 07:00: 0.9955
2025-09-24 11:00: 0.9955
2025-09-24 15:00: 0.9955
2025-09-24 19:00: 0.9955
2025-09-24 23:00: 0.9955
2025-09-25 03:00: 0.9955
2025-09-25 07:00: 0.9955
2025-09-25 11:00: 0.9945
2025-09-25 15:00: 0.0055
2025-09-25 19:00: 0.9945
2025-09-25 23:00: 0.9945
2025-09-26 03:00: 0.9945
Trade Summary: No trades available

Output: No


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 559687
Question: Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 13500199.758736
Price History:
2025-09-27 00:00: 0.9945
2025-09-27 04:00: 0.9945
2025-09-27 08:00: 0.0055
2025-09-27 12:00: 0.9945
2025-09-27 16:00: 0.9945
2025-09-27 20:00: 0.0055
2025-09-28 00:00: 0.9945
2025-09-28 04:00: 0.9945
2025-09-28 08:00: 0.9945
2025-09-28 12:00: 0.0055
2025-09-28 16:00: 0.9945
2025-09-28 20:00: 0.9945
2025-09-29 00:00: 0.9945
2025-09-29 04:00: 0.9945
2025-09-29 08:00: 0.9945
2025-09-29 12:00: 0.0055
2025-09-29 16:00: 0.0055
2025-09-29 20:00: 0.0055
2025-09-30 00:00: 0.0055
2025-09-30 04:00: 0.9945
2025-09-30 08:00: 0.9945
2025-09-30 12:00: 0.0055
2025-09-30 16:00: 0.9945
2025-09-30 20:00: 0.9945
2025-10-01 00:00: 0.9945
2025-10-01 04:00: 0.9945
2025-10-01 08:00: 0.9945
2025-10-01 12:00: 0.0055
2025-10-01 16:00: 0.9935
2025-10-01 20:00: 0.0065
2025-10-02 00:00: 0.9935
2025-10-02 04:00: 0.9935
2025-10-02 08:00: 0.9935
2025-10-02 12:00: 0.0065
2025-10-02 16:00: 0.0065
2025-10-02 20:00: 0.0065
2025-10-03 00:00: 0.0065
2025-10-03 04:00: 0.0065
2025-10-03 08:00: 0.9935
2025-10-03 12:00: 0.9935
2025-10-03 16:00: 0.9935
2025-10-03 20:00: 0.0065
2025-10-04 00:00: 0.9935
2025-10-04 04:00: 0.9935
2025-10-04 08:00: 0.9935
2025-10-04 12:00: 0.9935
2025-10-04 16:00: 0.0065
2025-10-04 20:00: 0.0065
2025-10-05 00:00: 0.9935
2025-10-05 04:00: 0.9935
Trade Summary: No trades available

Output: No


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 559687
Question: Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 13500199.758736
Price History:
2025-10-06 02:00: 0.0065
2025-10-06 06:00: 0.9935
2025-10-06 10:00: 0.9935
2025-10-06 14:00: 0.9935
2025-10-06 18:00: 0.0065
2025-10-06 22:00: 0.0065
2025-10-07 02:00: 0.0065
2025-10-07 06:00: 0.0065
2025-10-07 10:00: 0.0065
2025-10-07 14:00: 0.0065
2025-10-07 18:00: 0.9935
2025-10-07 22:00: 0.0065
2025-10-08 02:00: 0.0065
2025-10-08 06:00: 0.9935
2025-10-08 10:00: 0.0065
2025-10-08 14:00: 0.9935
2025-10-08 18:00: 0.0065
2025-10-08 22:00: 0.9935
2025-10-09 02:00: 0.0065
2025-10-09 06:00: 0.9935
2025-10-09 10:00: 0.9935
2025-10-09 14:00: 0.9935
2025-10-09 18:00: 0.9935
2025-10-09 22:00: 0.0065
2025-10-10 02:00: 0.9935
2025-10-10 06:00: 0.9935
2025-10-10 10:00: 0.9935
2025-10-10 14:00: 0.0065
2025-10-10 18:00: 0.0065
2025-10-10 22:00: 0.0065
2025-10-11 02:00: 0.0065
2025-10-11 06:00: 0.9935
2025-10-11 10:00: 0.9925
2025-10-11 14:00: 0.9925
2025-10-11 18:00: 0.9925
2025-10-11 22:00: 0.0075
2025-10-12 02:00: 0.9915
2025-10-12 06:00: 0.9915
2025-10-12 10:00: 0.9915
2025-10-12 14:00: 0.9915
2025-10-12 18:00: 0.0085
2025-10-12 22:00: 0.9915
2025-10-13 02:00: 0.9915
2025-10-13 06:00: 0.0085
2025-10-13 10:00: 0.0085
2025-10-13 14:00: 0.0085
2025-10-13 18:00: 0.0085
2025-10-13 22:00: 0.0085
2025-10-14 02:00: 0.0085
2025-10-14 06:00: 0.0085
Trade Summary: No trades available

Output: No


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 559687
Question: Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 13500199.758736
Price History:
2025-10-15 03:00: 0.0095
2025-10-15 07:00: 0.0095
2025-10-15 11:00: 0.9905
2025-10-15 15:00: 0.9915
2025-10-15 19:00: 0.0085
2025-10-15 23:00: 0.9915
2025-10-16 03:00: 0.9915
2025-10-16 07:00: 0.9915
2025-10-16 11:00: 0.0085
2025-10-16 15:00: 0.0075
2025-10-16 19:00: 0.9925
2025-10-16 23:00: 0.0075
2025-10-17 03:00: 0.0065
2025-10-17 07:00: 0.0065
2025-10-17 11:00: 0.0065
2025-10-17 15:00: 0.0065
2025-10-17 19:00: 0.0065
2025-10-17 23:00: 0.0065
2025-10-18 03:00: 0.9935
2025-10-18 07:00: 0.0085
2025-10-18 11:00: 0.9915
2025-10-18 15:00: 0.9925
2025-10-18 19:00: 0.9925
2025-10-18 23:00: 0.9925
2025-10-19 03:00: 0.0075
2025-10-19 07:00: 0.9915
2025-10-19 11:00: 0.9915
2025-10-19 15:00: 0.9915
2025-10-19 19:00: 0.9915
2025-10-19 23:00: 0.9915
2025-10-20 03:00: 0.9905
2025-10-20 07:00: 0.9905
2025-10-20 11:00: 0.9905
2025-10-20 15:00: 0.9905
2025-10-20 19:00: 0.9905
2025-10-20 23:00: 0.9905
2025-10-21 03:00: 0.9905
2025-10-21 07:00: 0.0095
2025-10-21 11:00: 0.0095
2025-10-21 15:00: 0.0095
2025-10-21 19:00: 0.9905
2025-10-21 23:00: 0.0095
2025-10-22 03:00: 0.0095
2025-10-22 07:00: 0.0095
2025-10-22 11:00: 0.0095
2025-10-22 15:00: 0.0095
2025-10-22 19:00: 0.0095
2025-10-22 23:00: 0.9905
2025-10-23 03:00: 0.9905
2025-10-23 07:00: 0.0095
Trade Summary: No trades available

Output: No


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 559687
Question: Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 13500199.758736
Price History:
2025-10-24 05:00: 0.9905
2025-10-24 09:00: 0.0095
2025-10-24 13:00: 0.9905
2025-10-24 17:00: 0.9905
2025-10-24 21:00: 0.0095
2025-10-25 01:00: 0.9905
2025-10-25 05:00: 0.9905
2025-10-25 09:00: 0.9905
2025-10-25 13:00: 0.9905
2025-10-25 17:00: 0.9905
2025-10-25 21:00: 0.9905
2025-10-26 01:00: 0.9905
2025-10-26 05:00: 0.9905
2025-10-26 09:00: 0.9905
2025-10-26 13:00: 0.9905
2025-10-26 17:00: 0.9905
2025-10-26 21:00: 0.9905
2025-10-27 01:00: 0.9905
2025-10-27 05:00: 0.9915
2025-10-27 09:00: 0.9915
2025-10-27 13:00: 0.0085
2025-10-27 17:00: 0.9915
2025-10-27 21:00: 0.9915
2025-10-28 01:00: 0.9915
2025-10-28 05:00: 0.0085
2025-10-28 09:00: 0.9915
2025-10-28 13:00: 0.9915
2025-10-28 17:00: 0.9925
2025-10-28 21:00: 0.0075
2025-10-29 01:00: 0.9925
2025-10-29 05:00: 0.9925
2025-10-29 12:00: 0.0075
2025-10-29 16:00: 0.0075
2025-10-29 20:00: 0.0075
2025-10-30 00:00: 0.0075
2025-10-30 04:00: 0.0075
2025-10-30 08:00: 0.0075
2025-10-30 12:00: 0.0075
2025-10-30 16:00: 0.0075
2025-10-30 20:00: 0.0075
2025-10-31 00:00: 0.0075
2025-10-31 04:00: 0.0075
2025-10-31 08:00: 0.0075
2025-10-31 12:00: 0.0075
2025-10-31 16:00: 0.0075
2025-10-31 20:00: 0.0075
2025-11-01 00:00: 0.0075
2025-11-01 04:00: 0.0075
2025-11-01 08:00: 0.0075
2025-11-01 12:00: 0.0075
Trade Summary: No trades available

Output: No


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 559687
Question: Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 13500199.758736
Price History:
2025-11-02 09:00: 0.9935
2025-11-02 13:00: 0.9935
2025-11-02 17:00: 0.9935
2025-11-02 21:00: 0.9935
2025-11-03 01:00: 0.9935
2025-11-03 05:00: 0.9935
2025-11-03 09:00: 0.9935
2025-11-03 13:00: 0.9935
2025-11-03 17:00: 0.9935
2025-11-03 21:00: 0.9935
2025-11-04 01:00: 0.9935
2025-11-04 05:00: 0.9935
2025-11-04 09:00: 0.9935
2025-11-04 13:00: 0.9935
2025-11-04 17:00: 0.9935
2025-11-04 21:00: 0.9935
2025-11-05 01:00: 0.9935
2025-11-05 05:00: 0.9935
2025-11-05 09:00: 0.9935
2025-11-05 13:00: 0.9935
2025-11-05 17:00: 0.9935
2025-11-05 21:00: 0.9935
2025-11-06 01:00: 0.9935
2025-11-06 05:00: 0.0065
2025-11-06 09:00: 0.9935
2025-11-06 13:00: 0.9935
2025-11-06 17:00: 0.9935
2025-11-06 21:00: 0.9935
2025-11-07 01:00: 0.9935
2025-11-07 05:00: 0.9935
2025-11-07 09:00: 0.9935
2025-11-07 13:00: 0.0065
2025-11-07 17:00: 0.9935
2025-11-07 21:00: 0.0065
2025-11-08 01:00: 0.9935
2025-11-08 05:00: 0.9945
2025-11-08 09:00: 0.9945
2025-11-08 13:00: 0.9945
2025-11-08 17:00: 0.9945
2025-11-08 21:00: 0.9945
2025-11-09 01:00: 0.9945
2025-11-09 05:00: 0.9945
2025-11-09 09:00: 0.9955
2025-11-09 13:00: 0.9955
2025-11-09 17:00: 0.9965
2025-11-09 21:00: 0.9965
2025-11-10 01:00: 0.9965
2025-11-10 05:00: 0.9965
2025-11-10 09:00: 0.9955
2025-11-10 13:00: 0.9955
Trade Summary: No trades available

Output: No


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 559687
Question: Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 13500199.758736
Price History:
2025-11-11 10:00: 0.0045
2025-11-11 14:00: 0.0045
2025-11-11 18:00: 0.0045
2025-11-11 22:00: 0.0045
2025-11-12 02:00: 0.9955
2025-11-12 06:00: 0.0045
2025-11-12 10:00: 0.0045
2025-11-12 14:00: 0.0045
2025-11-12 18:00: 0.0045
2025-11-12 22:00: 0.0045
2025-11-13 02:00: 0.0045
2025-11-13 06:00: 0.0045
2025-11-13 10:00: 0.0045
2025-11-13 14:00: 0.0045
2025-11-13 18:00: 0.0045
2025-11-13 22:00: 0.0045
2025-11-14 02:00: 0.0045
2025-11-14 06:00: 0.0045
2025-11-14 10:00: 0.0045
2025-11-14 14:00: 0.0045
2025-11-14 18:00: 0.0045
2025-11-14 22:00: 0.0045
2025-11-15 02:00: 0.0045
2025-11-15 06:00: 0.0045
2025-11-15 10:00: 0.0045
2025-11-15 14:00: 0.0045
2025-11-15 18:00: 0.0045
2025-11-15 22:00: 0.0045
2025-11-16 02:00: 0.0045
2025-11-16 06:00: 0.0045
2025-11-16 10:00: 0.0045
2025-11-16 14:00: 0.0045
2025-11-16 18:00: 0.9955
2025-11-16 22:00: 0.0045
2025-11-17 02:00: 0.0045
2025-11-17 06:00: 0.0045
2025-11-17 10:00: 0.0045
2025-11-17 14:00: 0.9955
2025-11-17 18:00: 0.0045
2025-11-17 22:00: 0.0045
2025-11-18 02:00: 0.0045
2025-11-18 06:00: 0.0045
2025-11-18 10:00: 0.0045
2025-11-18 14:00: 0.0045
2025-11-18 18:00: 0.0045
2025-11-18 22:00: 0.0045
2025-11-19 02:00: 0.0045
2025-11-19 06:00: 0.0045
2025-11-19 10:00: 0.0045
2025-11-19 14:00: 0.0045
Trade Summary: No trades available

Output: No


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 559687
Question: Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Volume: 13500199.758736
Price History:
2025-07-25 14:00: 0.0250
2025-07-25 21:00: 0.0055
2025-07-26 04:00: 0.0025
2025-07-26 11:00: 0.0015
2025-07-26 18:00: 0.0015
2025-07-27 01:00: 0.0015
2025-07-27 08:00: 0.0015
2025-07-27 15:00: 0.0015
2025-07-27 22:00: 0.0015
2025-07-28 05:00: 0.0015
2025-07-28 12:00: 0.0015
2025-07-28 19:00: 0.0025
2025-07-29 02:00: 0.0025
2025-07-29 09:00: 0.0025
2025-07-29 16:00: 0.0025
2025-07-29 23:00: 0.0025
2025-07-30 06:00: 0.0025
2025-07-30 13:00: 0.0025
2025-07-30 20:00: 0.0025
2025-07-31 03:00: 0.0025
2025-07-31 10:00: 0.0025
2025-07-31 17:00: 0.0025
2025-08-01 00:00: 0.0025
2025-08-01 07:00: 0.0025
2025-08-01 14:00: 0.0025
2025-08-01 21:00: 0.0025
2025-08-02 04:00: 0.0025
2025-08-02 11:00: 0.0025
2025-08-02 18:00: 0.0025
2025-08-03 01:00: 0.0025
Trade Summary: No trades available
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 559687
Question: Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Volume: 13500199.758736
Price History:
2025-08-03 15:00: 0.9975
2025-08-03 22:00: 0.9975
2025-08-04 05:00: 0.9975
2025-08-04 12:00: 0.9975
2025-08-04 19:00: 0.9975
2025-08-05 02:00: 0.9975
2025-08-05 09:00: 0.9975
2025-08-05 16:00: 0.9975
2025-08-05 23:00: 0.9975
2025-08-06 06:00: 0.9975
2025-08-06 13:00: 0.9975
2025-08-06 20:00: 0.9965
2025-08-07 03:00: 0.9965
2025-08-07 10:00: 0.0025
2025-08-07 17:00: 0.9965
2025-08-08 00:00: 0.0035
2025-08-08 07:00: 0.0035
2025-08-08 14:00: 0.9965
2025-08-08 21:00: 0.9965
2025-08-09 04:00: 0.9965
2025-08-09 11:00: 0.0035
2025-08-09 18:00: 0.0045
2025-08-10 01:00: 0.0045
2025-08-10 08:00: 0.0075
2025-08-10 15:00: 0.9915
2025-08-10 22:00: 0.9915
2025-08-11 05:00: 0.9915
2025-08-11 12:00: 0.0065
2025-08-11 19:00: 0.9940
2025-08-12 02:00: 0.9940
Trade Summary: No trades available
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 559687
Question: Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Volume: 13500199.758736
Price History:
2025-08-12 17:00: 0.9940
2025-08-13 00:00: 0.0065
2025-08-13 07:00: 0.0060
2025-08-13 14:00: 0.0060
2025-08-13 21:00: 0.0060
2025-08-14 04:00: 0.0050
2025-08-14 11:00: 0.9945
2025-08-14 18:00: 0.9945
2025-08-15 01:00: 0.9950
2025-08-15 08:00: 0.9965
2025-08-15 15:00: 0.0050
2025-08-15 22:00: 0.9950
2025-08-16 05:00: 0.0050
2025-08-16 12:00: 0.0050
2025-08-16 19:00: 0.9950
2025-08-17 02:00: 0.0045
2025-08-17 09:00: 0.0045
2025-08-17 16:00: 0.9955
2025-08-17 23:00: 0.9955
2025-08-18 06:00: 0.9955
2025-08-18 13:00: 0.0035
2025-08-18 20:00: 0.9965
2025-08-19 03:00: 0.0035
2025-08-19 10:00: 0.9965
2025-08-19 17:00: 0.0035
2025-08-20 00:00: 0.9965
2025-08-20 07:00: 0.9965
2025-08-20 14:00: 0.9965
2025-08-20 21:00: 0.0035
2025-08-21 04:00: 0.9965
Trade Summary: No trades available
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes