Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 520418
Question: Will CDU/CSU, SPD, and Greens form the next German Government?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 866659.104358
Price History:
2025-02-12 20:00: 0.1350
2025-02-12 23:00: 0.8650
2025-02-13 03:00: 0.1350
2025-02-13 06:00: 0.8650
2025-02-13 10:00: 0.1450
2025-02-13 13:00: 0.8550
2025-02-13 17:00: 0.1550
2025-02-13 20:00: 0.8450
2025-02-14 00:00: 0.1500
2025-02-14 03:00: 0.8500
2025-02-14 07:00: 0.1600
2025-02-14 10:00: 0.8500
2025-02-14 14:00: 0.1500
2025-02-14 17:00: 0.8500
2025-02-14 21:00: 0.1450
2025-02-15 00:00: 0.8550
2025-02-15 04:00: 0.1550
2025-02-15 07:00: 0.8400
2025-02-15 11:00: 0.1550
2025-02-15 14:00: 0.8350
2025-02-15 18:00: 0.1550
2025-02-15 21:00: 0.8450
2025-02-16 01:00: 0.1550
2025-02-16 04:00: 0.8450
2025-02-16 08:00: 0.1550
2025-02-16 11:00: 0.8350
2025-02-16 15:00: 0.1500
2025-02-16 18:00: 0.8400
2025-02-16 22:00: 0.1550
2025-02-17 01:00: 0.8450
2025-02-17 05:00: 0.1950
2025-02-17 08:00: 0.8050
2025-02-17 12:00: 0.1650
2025-02-17 15:00: 0.8450
2025-02-17 19:00: 0.2150
2025-02-17 22:00: 0.7950
2025-02-18 02:00: 0.2100
2025-02-18 05:00: 0.7900
2025-02-18 09:00: 0.2250
2025-02-18 12:00: 0.8000
2025-02-18 16:00: 0.2000
2025-02-18 19:00: 0.8150
2025-02-18 23:00: 0.1900
2025-02-19 02:00: 0.8100
2025-02-19 06:00: 0.1850
2025-02-19 09:00: 0.8400
2025-02-19 13:00: 0.1400
2025-02-19 16:00: 0.8550
2025-02-19 20:00: 0.1450
2025-02-19 23:00: 0.8450
Trade Summary: Total trades: 1000000, Buy volume: 96806542.21, Sell volume: 60648033.63, Average price: 0.6266, Price range: 0.0010 - 0.9990

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 520418
Question: Will CDU/CSU, SPD, and Greens form the next German Government?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 866659.104358
Price History:
2025-02-20 08:00: 0.8450
2025-02-20 12:00: 0.1500
2025-02-20 15:00: 0.8550
2025-02-20 19:00: 0.1850
2025-02-20 22:00: 0.8000
2025-02-21 02:00: 0.1950
2025-02-21 05:00: 0.7850
2025-02-21 09:00: 0.2050
2025-02-21 12:00: 0.8150
2025-02-21 16:00: 0.2050
2025-02-21 19:00: 0.8000
2025-02-21 23:00: 0.2100
2025-02-22 02:00: 0.8000
2025-02-22 06:00: 0.2250
2025-02-22 09:00: 0.7900
2025-02-22 13:00: 0.2150
2025-02-22 16:00: 0.7850
2025-02-22 20:00: 0.2000
2025-02-22 23:00: 0.7850
2025-02-23 03:00: 0.1800
2025-02-23 06:00: 0.7600
2025-02-23 10:00: 0.2200
2025-02-23 13:00: 0.8650
2025-02-23 17:00: 0.2200
2025-02-23 20:00: 0.9805
2025-02-24 00:00: 0.0340
2025-02-24 03:00: 0.9885
2025-02-24 07:00: 0.0250
2025-02-24 10:00: 0.9795
2025-02-24 14:00: 0.0150
2025-02-24 17:00: 0.9850
2025-02-24 21:00: 0.0155
2025-02-25 00:00: 0.9855
2025-02-25 04:00: 0.0145
2025-02-25 07:00: 0.9865
2025-02-25 11:00: 0.0145
2025-02-25 14:00: 0.9860
2025-02-25 18:00: 0.0135
2025-02-25 21:00: 0.9870
2025-02-26 01:00: 0.0135
2025-02-26 04:00: 0.9880
2025-02-26 08:00: 0.0110
2025-02-26 11:00: 0.9895
2025-02-26 15:00: 0.0150
2025-02-26 18:00: 0.9835
2025-02-26 22:00: 0.0160
2025-02-27 01:00: 0.9850
2025-02-27 05:00: 0.0150
2025-02-27 08:00: 0.9875
2025-02-27 12:00: 0.0135
Trade Summary: Total trades: 1000000, Buy volume: 96806542.21, Sell volume: 60648033.63, Average price: 0.6266, Price range: 0.0010 - 0.9990

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 520418
Question: Will CDU/CSU, SPD, and Greens form the next German Government?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 866659.104358
Price History:
2025-02-27 21:00: 0.0130
2025-02-28 00:00: 0.9860
2025-02-28 04:00: 0.0130
2025-02-28 07:00: 0.9885
2025-02-28 11:00: 0.0115
2025-02-28 14:00: 0.9890
2025-02-28 18:00: 0.0105
2025-02-28 21:00: 0.9900
2025-03-01 01:00: 0.0105
2025-03-01 04:00: 0.9900
2025-03-01 08:00: 0.0095
2025-03-01 11:00: 0.9895
2025-03-01 15:00: 0.0105
2025-03-01 18:00: 0.9895
2025-03-01 22:00: 0.0105
2025-03-02 01:00: 0.9895
2025-03-02 05:00: 0.0105
2025-03-02 08:00: 0.9890
2025-03-02 12:00: 0.0090
2025-03-02 15:00: 0.9890
2025-03-02 19:00: 0.0135
2025-03-02 22:00: 0.9895
2025-03-03 02:00: 0.0095
2025-03-03 05:00: 0.9895
2025-03-03 09:00: 0.0105
2025-03-03 12:00: 0.9915
2025-03-03 16:00: 0.0085
2025-03-03 19:00: 0.9915
2025-03-03 23:00: 0.0095
2025-03-04 02:00: 0.9910
2025-03-04 06:00: 0.0085
2025-03-04 09:00: 0.9920
2025-03-04 13:00: 0.0075
2025-03-04 16:00: 0.9925
2025-03-04 20:00: 0.0075
2025-03-04 23:00: 0.9925
2025-03-05 03:00: 0.0075
2025-03-05 06:00: 0.9925
2025-03-05 10:00: 0.0075
2025-03-05 13:00: 0.9905
2025-03-05 17:00: 0.0095
2025-03-05 20:00: 0.9905
2025-03-06 00:00: 0.0090
2025-03-06 03:00: 0.9905
2025-03-06 07:00: 0.0080
2025-03-06 10:00: 0.9910
2025-03-06 14:00: 0.0085
2025-03-06 17:00: 0.9905
2025-03-06 21:00: 0.0090
2025-03-07 00:00: 0.9910
Trade Summary: Total trades: 37962, Buy volume: 2260029.50, Sell volume: 1133884.98, Average price: 0.5262, Price range: 0.0070 - 0.9930

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 520418
Question: Will CDU/CSU, SPD, and Greens form the next German Government?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 866659.104358
Price History:
2025-03-07 09:00: 0.9910
2025-03-07 13:00: 0.0090
2025-03-07 16:00: 0.9915
2025-03-07 20:00: 0.0090
2025-03-07 23:00: 0.9910
2025-03-08 03:00: 0.0090
2025-03-08 06:00: 0.9910
2025-03-08 10:00: 0.0080
2025-03-08 13:00: 0.9930
2025-03-08 17:00: 0.0080
2025-03-08 20:00: 0.9925
2025-03-09 00:00: 0.0070
2025-03-09 04:00: 0.9930
2025-03-09 08:00: 0.0080
2025-03-09 11:00: 0.9915
2025-03-09 15:00: 0.0075
2025-03-09 18:00: 0.9925
2025-03-09 22:00: 0.0070
2025-03-10 01:00: 0.9930
2025-03-10 05:00: 0.0085
2025-03-10 08:00: 0.9920
2025-03-10 12:00: 0.0090
2025-03-10 15:00: 0.9925
2025-03-10 19:00: 0.0095
2025-03-10 22:00: 0.9840
2025-03-11 02:00: 0.0165
2025-03-11 05:00: 0.9845
2025-03-11 09:00: 0.0150
2025-03-11 12:00: 0.9845
2025-03-11 16:00: 0.0170
2025-03-11 19:00: 0.9825
2025-03-11 23:00: 0.0180
2025-03-12 02:00: 0.9835
2025-03-12 06:00: 0.0165
2025-03-12 09:00: 0.9830
2025-03-12 13:00: 0.0170
2025-03-12 16:00: 0.9835
2025-03-12 20:00: 0.0170
2025-03-12 23:00: 0.9830
2025-03-13 03:00: 0.0185
2025-03-13 06:00: 0.9795
2025-03-13 10:00: 0.0170
2025-03-13 13:00: 0.9830
2025-03-13 17:00: 0.0165
2025-03-13 20:00: 0.9825
2025-03-14 00:00: 0.0185
2025-03-14 03:00: 0.9805
2025-03-14 07:00: 0.0210
2025-03-14 10:00: 0.9825
2025-03-14 14:00: 0.0175
Trade Summary: Total trades: 335664, Buy volume: 56325999.37, Sell volume: 22868428.68, Average price: 0.5468, Price range: 0.0050 - 0.9950

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 520418
Question: Will CDU/CSU, SPD, and Greens form the next German Government?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 866659.104358
Price History:
2025-03-14 23:00: 0.0145
2025-03-15 02:00: 0.9855
2025-03-15 06:00: 0.0130
2025-03-15 09:00: 0.9885
2025-03-15 13:00: 0.0110
2025-03-15 16:00: 0.9885
2025-03-15 20:00: 0.0095
2025-03-15 23:00: 0.9905
2025-03-16 03:00: 0.0095
2025-03-16 06:00: 0.9900
2025-03-16 10:00: 0.0105
2025-03-16 13:00: 0.9895
2025-03-16 17:00: 0.0105
2025-03-16 20:00: 0.9895
2025-03-17 00:00: 0.0100
2025-03-17 03:00: 0.9895
2025-03-17 07:00: 0.0105
2025-03-17 10:00: 0.9915
2025-03-17 14:00: 0.0085
2025-03-17 17:00: 0.9915
2025-03-17 21:00: 0.0085
2025-03-18 00:00: 0.9915
2025-03-18 04:00: 0.0085
2025-03-18 07:00: 0.9915
2025-03-18 11:00: 0.0085
2025-03-18 14:00: 0.9930
2025-03-18 18:00: 0.0080
2025-03-18 21:00: 0.9920
2025-03-19 01:00: 0.0080
2025-03-19 04:00: 0.9920
2025-03-19 08:00: 0.0080
2025-03-19 11:00: 0.9920
2025-03-19 15:00: 0.0080
2025-03-19 18:00: 0.9945
2025-03-19 22:00: 0.0055
2025-03-20 01:00: 0.9945
2025-03-20 05:00: 0.0050
2025-03-20 08:00: 0.9950
2025-03-20 12:00: 0.0050
2025-03-20 15:00: 0.9950
2025-03-20 19:00: 0.0045
2025-03-20 22:00: 0.9950
2025-03-21 02:00: 0.0050
2025-03-21 05:00: 0.9950
2025-03-21 09:00: 0.0045
2025-03-21 12:00: 0.9960
2025-03-21 16:00: 0.0045
2025-03-21 19:00: 0.9955
2025-03-21 23:00: 0.0050
2025-03-22 02:00: 0.9950
Trade Summary: Total trades: 619494, Buy volume: 37336450.03, Sell volume: 36519979.79, Average price: 0.6817, Price range: 0.0030 - 0.9970

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 520418
Question: Will CDU/CSU, SPD, and Greens form the next German Government?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 866659.104358
Price History:
2025-03-22 11:00: 0.9950
2025-03-22 15:00: 0.0050
2025-03-22 18:00: 0.9960
2025-03-22 22:00: 0.0040
2025-03-23 01:00: 0.9955
2025-03-23 05:00: 0.0050
2025-03-23 08:00: 0.9950
2025-03-23 12:00: 0.0045
2025-03-23 15:00: 0.9955
2025-03-23 19:00: 0.0050
2025-03-23 22:00: 0.9950
2025-03-24 02:00: 0.0050
2025-03-24 05:00: 0.9950
2025-03-24 09:00: 0.0050
2025-03-24 12:00: 0.9950
2025-03-24 16:00: 0.0050
2025-03-24 19:00: 0.9950
2025-03-24 23:00: 0.0050
2025-03-25 02:00: 0.9950
2025-03-25 06:00: 0.0040
2025-03-25 09:00: 0.9960
2025-03-25 13:00: 0.0045
2025-03-25 16:00: 0.9955
2025-03-25 20:00: 0.0045
2025-03-25 23:00: 0.9955
2025-03-26 03:00: 0.0040
2025-03-26 06:00: 0.9960
2025-03-26 10:00: 0.0040
2025-03-26 13:00: 0.9960
2025-03-26 17:00: 0.0040
2025-03-26 20:00: 0.9950
2025-03-27 00:00: 0.0050
2025-03-27 03:00: 0.9950
2025-03-27 07:00: 0.0050
2025-03-27 10:00: 0.9960
2025-03-27 14:00: 0.0045
2025-03-27 17:00: 0.9955
2025-03-27 21:00: 0.0040
2025-03-28 00:00: 0.9960
2025-03-28 04:00: 0.0040
2025-03-28 07:00: 0.9960
2025-03-28 11:00: 0.0035
2025-03-28 14:00: 0.9965
2025-03-28 18:00: 0.0035
2025-03-28 21:00: 0.9960
2025-03-29 01:00: 0.0040
2025-03-29 04:00: 0.9960
2025-03-29 08:00: 0.0040
2025-03-29 11:00: 0.9960
2025-03-29 15:00: 0.0040
Trade Summary: Total trades: 449, Buy volume: 17158.94, Sell volume: 51418.23, Average price: 0.7394, Price range: 0.0020 - 0.9980

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 520418
Question: Will CDU/CSU, SPD, and Greens form the next German Government?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 866659.104358
Price History:
2025-03-30 00:00: 0.0040
2025-03-30 03:00: 0.9960
2025-03-30 07:00: 0.0040
2025-03-30 10:00: 0.9960
2025-03-30 14:00: 0.0040
2025-03-30 17:00: 0.9965
2025-03-30 21:00: 0.0035
2025-03-31 00:00: 0.9965
2025-03-31 04:00: 0.0035
2025-03-31 07:00: 0.9965
2025-03-31 11:00: 0.0035
2025-03-31 14:00: 0.9965
2025-03-31 18:00: 0.0035
2025-03-31 21:00: 0.9965
2025-04-01 01:00: 0.0035
2025-04-01 04:00: 0.9965
2025-04-01 08:00: 0.0035
2025-04-01 11:00: 0.9965
2025-04-01 15:00: 0.0035
2025-04-01 18:00: 0.9965
2025-04-01 22:00: 0.0035
2025-04-02 01:00: 0.9965
2025-04-02 05:00: 0.0035
2025-04-02 08:00: 0.9965
2025-04-02 12:00: 0.0035
2025-04-02 15:00: 0.9965
2025-04-02 19:00: 0.0030
2025-04-02 22:00: 0.9970
2025-04-03 02:00: 0.0030
2025-04-03 05:00: 0.9965
2025-04-03 09:00: 0.0035
2025-04-03 12:00: 0.9965
2025-04-03 16:00: 0.0035
2025-04-03 19:00: 0.9965
2025-04-03 23:00: 0.0035
2025-04-04 02:00: 0.9965
2025-04-04 06:00: 0.0035
2025-04-04 09:00: 0.9965
2025-04-04 13:00: 0.0035
2025-04-04 16:00: 0.9965
2025-04-04 20:00: 0.0035
2025-04-04 23:00: 0.9965
2025-04-05 03:00: 0.0035
2025-04-05 06:00: 0.9965
2025-04-05 10:00: 0.0035
2025-04-05 13:00: 0.9965
2025-04-05 17:00: 0.0035
2025-04-05 20:00: 0.9965
2025-04-06 00:00: 0.0035
2025-04-06 03:00: 0.9965
Trade Summary: Total trades: 62, Buy volume: 1220.10, Sell volume: 6605.85, Average price: 0.7402, Price range: 0.0020 - 0.9980

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 520418
Question: Will CDU/CSU, SPD, and Greens form the next German Government?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 866659.104358
Price History:
2025-04-06 12:00: 0.9965
2025-04-06 16:00: 0.0035
2025-04-06 19:00: 0.9965
2025-04-06 23:00: 0.0030
2025-04-07 02:00: 0.9970
2025-04-07 06:00: 0.0030
2025-04-07 09:00: 0.9970
2025-04-07 13:00: 0.0030
2025-04-07 16:00: 0.9970
2025-04-07 20:00: 0.0030
2025-04-07 23:00: 0.9970
2025-04-08 03:00: 0.0030
2025-04-08 06:00: 0.9970
2025-04-08 10:00: 0.0030
2025-04-08 13:00: 0.9970
2025-04-08 17:00: 0.0025
2025-04-08 20:00: 0.9980
2025-04-09 00:00: 0.0020
2025-04-09 03:00: 0.9980
2025-04-09 07:00: 0.0020
2025-04-09 10:00: 0.9980
2025-04-09 14:00: 0.0020
2025-04-09 17:00: 0.9985
2025-04-09 21:00: 0.0015
2025-04-10 00:00: 0.9985
2025-04-10 04:00: 0.0015
2025-04-10 07:00: 0.9985
2025-04-10 11:00: 0.0015
2025-04-10 14:00: 0.9985
2025-04-10 18:00: 0.0015
2025-04-10 21:00: 0.9985
2025-04-11 01:00: 0.0015
2025-04-11 04:00: 0.9985
2025-04-11 08:00: 0.0015
2025-04-11 11:00: 0.9985
2025-04-11 15:00: 0.0015
2025-04-11 18:00: 0.9985
2025-04-11 22:00: 0.0015
2025-04-12 01:00: 0.9985
2025-04-12 05:00: 0.0015
2025-04-12 08:00: 0.9985
2025-04-12 12:00: 0.0015
2025-04-12 15:00: 0.9985
2025-04-12 19:00: 0.0015
2025-04-12 22:00: 0.9985
2025-04-13 02:00: 0.0015
2025-04-13 05:00: 0.9985
2025-04-13 09:00: 0.0015
2025-04-13 12:00: 0.9985
2025-04-13 16:00: 0.0015
Trade Summary: Total trades: 74, Buy volume: 9965.65, Sell volume: 10907.00, Average price: 0.8776, Price range: 0.0010 - 0.9990

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 520418
Question: Will CDU/CSU, SPD, and Greens form the next German Government?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 866659.104358
Price History:
2025-04-14 01:00: 0.0015
2025-04-14 04:00: 0.9985
2025-04-14 08:00: 0.0015
2025-04-14 11:00: 0.9985
2025-04-14 15:00: 0.0015
2025-04-14 18:00: 0.9985
2025-04-14 22:00: 0.0015
2025-04-15 01:00: 0.9985
2025-04-15 05:00: 0.0015
2025-04-15 08:00: 0.9975
2025-04-15 12:00: 0.0025
2025-04-15 15:00: 0.9975
2025-04-15 19:00: 0.0025
2025-04-15 22:00: 0.9975
2025-04-16 02:00: 0.0025
2025-04-16 05:00: 0.9975
2025-04-16 09:00: 0.0025
2025-04-16 12:00: 0.9975
2025-04-16 16:00: 0.0025
2025-04-16 19:00: 0.9975
2025-04-16 23:00: 0.0025
2025-04-17 02:00: 0.9975
2025-04-17 06:00: 0.0025
2025-04-17 09:00: 0.9975
2025-04-17 13:00: 0.0025
2025-04-17 16:00: 0.9975
2025-04-17 20:00: 0.0025
2025-04-17 23:00: 0.9975
2025-04-18 03:00: 0.0025
2025-04-18 06:00: 0.9975
2025-04-18 10:00: 0.0025
2025-04-18 13:00: 0.9975
2025-04-18 17:00: 0.0025
2025-04-18 20:00: 0.9975
2025-04-19 00:00: 0.0025
2025-04-19 03:00: 0.9975
2025-04-19 07:00: 0.0025
2025-04-19 10:00: 0.9975
2025-04-19 14:00: 0.0025
2025-04-19 17:00: 0.9975
2025-04-19 21:00: 0.0025
2025-04-20 00:00: 0.9975
2025-04-20 04:00: 0.0025
2025-04-20 07:00: 0.9975
2025-04-20 11:00: 0.0025
2025-04-20 14:00: 0.9975
2025-04-20 18:00: 0.0025
2025-04-20 21:00: 0.9975
2025-04-21 01:00: 0.0025
2025-04-21 04:00: 0.9975
Trade Summary: Total trades: 98, Buy volume: 3280.10, Sell volume: 2231.38, Average price: 0.9267, Price range: 0.0010 - 0.9990

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 520418
Question: Will CDU/CSU, SPD, and Greens form the next German Government?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 866659.104358
Price History:
2025-04-21 13:00: 0.9975
2025-04-21 17:00: 0.0025
2025-04-21 20:00: 0.9975
2025-04-22 00:00: 0.0025
2025-04-22 03:00: 0.9975
2025-04-22 07:00: 0.0025
2025-04-22 10:00: 0.9975
2025-04-22 14:00: 0.0025
2025-04-22 17:00: 0.9975
2025-04-22 21:00: 0.0025
2025-04-23 00:00: 0.9975
2025-04-23 04:00: 0.0025
2025-04-23 07:00: 0.9975
2025-04-23 11:00: 0.0025
2025-04-23 14:00: 0.9975
2025-04-23 18:00: 0.0025
2025-04-23 21:00: 0.9975
2025-04-24 01:00: 0.0025
2025-04-24 04:00: 0.9970
2025-04-24 08:00: 0.0030
2025-04-24 11:00: 0.9970
2025-04-24 15:00: 0.0030
2025-04-24 18:00: 0.9970
2025-04-24 22:00: 0.0030
2025-04-25 01:00: 0.9970
2025-04-25 05:00: 0.0030
2025-04-25 08:00: 0.9970
2025-04-25 12:00: 0.0030
2025-04-25 15:00: 0.9970
2025-04-25 19:00: 0.0030
2025-04-25 22:00: 0.9970
2025-04-26 02:00: 0.0030
2025-04-26 05:00: 0.9965
2025-04-26 09:00: 0.0035
2025-04-26 12:00: 0.9965
2025-04-26 16:00: 0.0035
2025-04-26 19:00: 0.9985
2025-04-26 23:00: 0.0015
2025-04-27 02:00: 0.9975
2025-04-27 06:00: 0.0025
2025-04-27 09:00: 0.9980
2025-04-27 13:00: 0.0015
2025-04-27 16:00: 0.9970
2025-04-27 20:00: 0.0025
2025-04-27 23:00: 0.9970
2025-04-28 03:00: 0.0025
2025-04-28 06:00: 0.9970
2025-04-28 10:00: 0.0030
2025-04-28 13:00: 0.9970
2025-04-28 17:00: 0.0025
Trade Summary: Total trades: 105, Buy volume: 7346.29, Sell volume: 1481.39, Average price: 0.8741, Price range: 0.0010 - 0.9990

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 520418
Question: Will CDU/CSU, SPD, and Greens form the next German Government?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 866659.104358
Price History:
2025-04-29 02:00: 0.0025
2025-04-29 05:00: 0.9975
2025-04-29 09:00: 0.0020
2025-04-29 12:00: 0.9980
2025-04-29 16:00: 0.0020
2025-04-29 19:00: 0.9980
2025-04-29 23:00: 0.0020
2025-04-30 02:00: 0.9980
2025-04-30 06:00: 0.0005
2025-04-30 09:00: 0.9995
2025-04-30 13:00: 0.0005
2025-04-30 16:00: 0.9995
2025-04-30 20:00: 0.0005
2025-04-30 23:00: 0.9995
2025-05-01 03:00: 0.0005
2025-05-01 06:00: 0.9995
2025-05-01 10:00: 0.0005
2025-05-01 13:00: 0.9995
2025-05-01 17:00: 0.0005
2025-05-01 20:00: 0.9995
2025-05-02 00:00: 0.0005
2025-05-02 03:00: 0.9995
2025-05-02 07:00: 0.0005
2025-05-02 10:00: 0.9995
2025-05-02 14:00: 0.0005
2025-05-02 17:00: 0.9995
2025-05-02 21:00: 0.0005
2025-05-03 00:00: 0.9995
2025-05-03 04:00: 0.0005
2025-05-03 07:00: 0.9995
2025-05-03 11:00: 0.0005
2025-05-03 14:00: 0.9995
2025-05-03 18:00: 0.0005
2025-05-03 21:00: 0.9995
2025-05-04 01:00: 0.0005
2025-05-04 04:00: 0.9995
2025-05-04 08:00: 0.0005
2025-05-04 11:00: 0.9995
2025-05-04 15:00: 0.0005
2025-05-04 18:00: 0.9995
2025-05-04 22:00: 0.0005
2025-05-05 01:00: 0.9995
2025-05-05 05:00: 0.0005
2025-05-05 08:00: 0.9995
2025-05-05 12:00: 0.0005
2025-05-05 15:00: 0.9995
2025-05-05 19:00: 0.0005
2025-05-05 22:00: 0.9995
2025-05-06 02:00: 0.0005
2025-05-06 05:00: 0.9975
Trade Summary: Total trades: 96, Buy volume: 60877.23, Sell volume: 13133.96, Average price: 0.7494, Price range: 0.0010 - 0.9990

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 520418
Question: Will CDU/CSU, SPD, and Greens form the next German Government?
Volume: 866659.104358
Price History:
2025-01-28 19:00: 0.2350
2025-01-29 01:00: 0.0750
2025-01-29 07:00: 0.1050
2025-01-29 13:00: 0.0950
2025-01-29 19:00: 0.1000
2025-01-30 01:00: 0.1000
2025-01-30 07:00: 0.1000
2025-01-30 13:00: 0.0950
2025-01-30 19:00: 0.1100
2025-01-31 01:00: 0.1100
2025-01-31 07:00: 0.1050
2025-01-31 13:00: 0.1050
2025-01-31 19:00: 0.1300
2025-02-01 01:00: 0.1300
2025-02-01 07:00: 0.1250
2025-02-01 13:00: 0.1250
2025-02-01 19:00: 0.1450
2025-02-02 01:00: 0.1300
2025-02-02 07:00: 0.1250
2025-02-02 13:00: 0.1150
2025-02-02 19:00: 0.1200
2025-02-03 01:00: 0.1200
2025-02-03 07:00: 0.1200
2025-02-03 13:00: 0.1200
2025-02-03 19:00: 0.1350
2025-02-04 01:00: 0.1250
2025-02-04 07:00: 0.1200
2025-02-04 13:00: 0.1400
2025-02-04 19:00: 0.1250
2025-02-05 01:00: 0.1150
Trade Summary: Total trades: 1000000, Buy volume: 96806542.21, Sell volume: 60648033.63, Average price: 0.6266, Price range: 0.0010 - 0.9990
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike, wash_trading

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 520418
Question: Will CDU/CSU, SPD, and Greens form the next German Government?
Volume: 866659.104358
Price History:
2025-02-05 07:00: 0.8850
2025-02-05 13:00: 0.8650
2025-02-05 19:00: 0.8500
2025-02-06 01:00: 0.8500
2025-02-06 07:00: 0.8150
2025-02-06 13:00: 0.8850
2025-02-06 19:00: 0.8650
2025-02-07 01:00: 0.8650
2025-02-07 07:00: 0.8650
2025-02-07 13:00: 0.8900
2025-02-07 19:00: 0.8950
2025-02-08 01:00: 0.9050
2025-02-08 07:00: 0.8950
2025-02-08 13:00: 0.8850
2025-02-08 19:00: 0.8900
2025-02-09 01:00: 0.8800
2025-02-09 07:00: 0.8750
2025-02-09 13:00: 0.8750
2025-02-09 19:00: 0.8750
2025-02-10 01:00: 0.8750
2025-02-10 07:00: 0.9150
2025-02-10 13:00: 0.8900
2025-02-10 19:00: 0.8900
2025-02-11 01:00: 0.8750
2025-02-11 07:00: 0.8850
2025-02-11 13:00: 0.8450
2025-02-11 19:00: 0.8550
2025-02-12 01:00: 0.8600
2025-02-12 07:00: 0.8550
2025-02-12 13:00: 0.8550
Trade Summary: Total trades: 1000000, Buy volume: 96806542.21, Sell volume: 60648033.63, Average price: 0.6266, Price range: 0.0010 - 0.9990
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike, wash_trading

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 520418
Question: Will CDU/CSU, SPD, and Greens form the next German Government?
Volume: 866659.104358
Price History:
2025-02-12 20:00: 0.1350
2025-02-13 02:00: 0.1350
2025-02-13 08:00: 0.1450
2025-02-13 14:00: 0.1500
2025-02-13 20:00: 0.1550
2025-02-14 02:00: 0.1500
2025-02-14 08:00: 0.1550
2025-02-14 14:00: 0.1500
2025-02-14 20:00: 0.1550
2025-02-15 02:00: 0.1500
2025-02-15 08:00: 0.1600
2025-02-15 14:00: 0.1650
2025-02-15 20:00: 0.1550
2025-02-16 02:00: 0.1550
2025-02-16 08:00: 0.1550
2025-02-16 14:00: 0.1450
2025-02-16 20:00: 0.1550
2025-02-17 02:00: 0.1550
2025-02-17 08:00: 0.1950
2025-02-17 14:00: 0.1550
2025-02-17 20:00: 0.1850
2025-02-18 02:00: 0.2100
2025-02-18 08:00: 0.2250
2025-02-18 14:00: 0.2050
2025-02-18 20:00: 0.1850
2025-02-19 02:00: 0.1900
2025-02-19 08:00: 0.1550
2025-02-19 14:00: 0.1450
2025-02-19 20:00: 0.1450
2025-02-20 02:00: 0.1400
Trade Summary: Total trades: 1000000, Buy volume: 96806542.21, Sell volume: 60648033.63, Average price: 0.6266, Price range: 0.0010 - 0.9990
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike, wash_trading

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 520418
Question: Will CDU/CSU, SPD, and Greens form the next German Government?
Volume: 866659.104358
Price History:
2025-02-20 08:00: 0.8450
2025-02-20 14:00: 0.8400
2025-02-20 20:00: 0.8150
2025-02-21 02:00: 0.8050
2025-02-21 08:00: 0.7950
2025-02-21 14:00: 0.8000
2025-02-21 20:00: 0.7950
2025-02-22 02:00: 0.8000
2025-02-22 08:00: 0.7850
2025-02-22 14:00: 0.7850
2025-02-22 20:00: 0.8000
2025-02-23 02:00: 0.8000
2025-02-23 08:00: 0.7750
2025-02-23 14:00: 0.7650
2025-02-23 20:00: 0.9805
2025-02-24 02:00: 0.9855
2025-02-24 08:00: 0.9755
2025-02-24 14:00: 0.9850
2025-02-24 20:00: 0.9835
2025-02-25 02:00: 0.9850
2025-02-25 08:00: 0.9855
2025-02-25 14:00: 0.9860
2025-02-25 20:00: 0.9865
2025-02-26 02:00: 0.9875
2025-02-26 08:00: 0.9890
2025-02-26 14:00: 0.9855
2025-02-26 20:00: 0.9845
2025-02-27 02:00: 0.9850
2025-02-27 08:00: 0.9875
2025-02-27 14:00: 0.9865
Trade Summary: Total trades: 1000000, Buy volume: 96806542.21, Sell volume: 60648033.63, Average price: 0.6266, Price range: 0.0010 - 0.9990
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike, wash_trading

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 520418
Question: Will CDU/CSU, SPD, and Greens form the next German Government?
Volume: 866659.104358
Price History:
2025-02-27 21:00: 0.0130
2025-02-28 03:00: 0.0125
2025-02-28 09:00: 0.0115
2025-02-28 15:00: 0.0110
2025-02-28 21:00: 0.0100
2025-03-01 03:00: 0.0100
2025-03-01 09:00: 0.0095
2025-03-01 15:00: 0.0105
2025-03-01 21:00: 0.0105
2025-03-02 03:00: 0.0105
2025-03-02 09:00: 0.0105
2025-03-02 15:00: 0.0110
2025-03-02 21:00: 0.0105
2025-03-03 03:00: 0.0105
2025-03-03 09:00: 0.0105
2025-03-03 15:00: 0.0085
2025-03-03 21:00: 0.0095
2025-03-04 03:00: 0.0090
2025-03-04 09:00: 0.0080
2025-03-04 15:00: 0.0075
2025-03-04 21:00: 0.0075
2025-03-05 03:00: 0.0075
2025-03-05 09:00: 0.0075
2025-03-05 15:00: 0.0090
2025-03-05 21:00: 0.0095
2025-03-06 03:00: 0.0095
2025-03-06 09:00: 0.0090
2025-03-06 15:00: 0.0095
2025-03-06 21:00: 0.0090
2025-03-07 03:00: 0.0090
Trade Summary: Total trades: 37962, Buy volume: 2260029.50, Sell volume: 1133884.98, Average price: 0.5262, Price range: 0.0070 - 0.9930
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 520418
Question: Will CDU/CSU, SPD, and Greens form the next German Government?
Volume: 866659.104358
Price History:
2025-03-07 09:00: 0.9910
2025-03-07 15:00: 0.9910
2025-03-07 21:00: 0.9915
2025-03-08 03:00: 0.9910
2025-03-08 09:00: 0.9910
2025-03-08 15:00: 0.9930
2025-03-08 21:00: 0.9920
2025-03-09 04:00: 0.9930
2025-03-09 10:00: 0.9915
2025-03-09 16:00: 0.9925
2025-03-09 22:00: 0.9930
2025-03-10 04:00: 0.9930
2025-03-10 10:00: 0.9920
2025-03-10 16:00: 0.9925
2025-03-10 22:00: 0.9840
2025-03-11 04:00: 0.9840
2025-03-11 10:00: 0.9850
2025-03-11 16:00: 0.9830
2025-03-11 22:00: 0.9820
2025-03-12 04:00: 0.9840
2025-03-12 10:00: 0.9825
2025-03-12 16:00: 0.9835
2025-03-12 22:00: 0.9830
2025-03-13 04:00: 0.9810
2025-03-13 10:00: 0.9830
2025-03-13 16:00: 0.9835
2025-03-13 22:00: 0.9820
2025-03-14 04:00: 0.9790
2025-03-14 10:00: 0.9825
2025-03-14 16:00: 0.9835
Trade Summary: Total trades: 335664, Buy volume: 56325999.37, Sell volume: 22868428.68, Average price: 0.5468, Price range: 0.0050 - 0.9950
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike, wash_trading

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 520418
Question: Will CDU/CSU, SPD, and Greens form the next German Government?
Volume: 866659.104358
Price History:
2025-03-14 23:00: 0.0145
2025-03-15 05:00: 0.0135
2025-03-15 11:00: 0.0110
2025-03-15 17:00: 0.0110
2025-03-15 23:00: 0.0095
2025-03-16 05:00: 0.0095
2025-03-16 11:00: 0.0105
2025-03-16 17:00: 0.0105
2025-03-16 23:00: 0.0100
2025-03-17 05:00: 0.0105
2025-03-17 11:00: 0.0085
2025-03-17 17:00: 0.0085
2025-03-17 23:00: 0.0085
2025-03-18 05:00: 0.0085
2025-03-18 11:00: 0.0085
2025-03-18 17:00: 0.0080
2025-03-18 23:00: 0.0080
2025-03-19 05:00: 0.0080
2025-03-19 11:00: 0.0080
2025-03-19 17:00: 0.0075
2025-03-19 23:00: 0.0055
2025-03-20 05:00: 0.0050
2025-03-20 11:00: 0.0050
2025-03-20 17:00: 0.0050
2025-03-20 23:00: 0.0050
2025-03-21 05:00: 0.0050
2025-03-21 11:00: 0.0040
2025-03-21 17:00: 0.0045
2025-03-21 23:00: 0.0050
2025-03-22 05:00: 0.0050
Trade Summary: Total trades: 619494, Buy volume: 37336450.03, Sell volume: 36519979.79, Average price: 0.6817, Price range: 0.0030 - 0.9970
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike, wash_trading

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 520418
Question: Will CDU/CSU, SPD, and Greens form the next German Government?
Volume: 866659.104358
Price History:
2025-03-22 11:00: 0.9950
2025-03-22 17:00: 0.9955
2025-03-22 23:00: 0.9960
2025-03-23 05:00: 0.9950
2025-03-23 11:00: 0.9955
2025-03-23 17:00: 0.9950
2025-03-23 23:00: 0.9950
2025-03-24 05:00: 0.9950
2025-03-24 11:00: 0.9950
2025-03-24 17:00: 0.9950
2025-03-24 23:00: 0.9950
2025-03-25 05:00: 0.9955
2025-03-25 11:00: 0.9960
2025-03-25 17:00: 0.9955
2025-03-25 23:00: 0.9955
2025-03-26 05:00: 0.9960
2025-03-26 11:00: 0.9960
2025-03-26 17:00: 0.9960
2025-03-26 23:00: 0.9950
2025-03-27 05:00: 0.9950
2025-03-27 11:00: 0.9960
2025-03-27 17:00: 0.9955
2025-03-27 23:00: 0.9960
2025-03-28 05:00: 0.9960
2025-03-28 11:00: 0.9965
2025-03-28 17:00: 0.9965
2025-03-28 23:00: 0.9960
2025-03-29 05:00: 0.9960
2025-03-29 11:00: 0.9960
2025-03-29 17:00: 0.9960
Trade Summary: Total trades: 449, Buy volume: 17158.94, Sell volume: 51418.23, Average price: 0.7394, Price range: 0.0020 - 0.9980
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 520418
Question: Will CDU/CSU, SPD, and Greens form the next German Government?
Volume: 866659.104358
Price History:
2025-03-30 00:00: 0.0040
2025-03-30 06:00: 0.0040
2025-03-30 12:00: 0.0040
2025-03-30 18:00: 0.0035
2025-03-31 00:00: 0.0035
2025-03-31 06:00: 0.0035
2025-03-31 12:00: 0.0035
2025-03-31 18:00: 0.0035
2025-04-01 00:00: 0.0035
2025-04-01 06:00: 0.0035
2025-04-01 12:00: 0.0035
2025-04-01 18:00: 0.0035
2025-04-02 00:00: 0.0035
2025-04-02 06:00: 0.0035
2025-04-02 12:00: 0.0035
2025-04-02 18:00: 0.0035
2025-04-03 00:00: 0.0030
2025-04-03 06:00: 0.0035
2025-04-03 12:00: 0.0035
2025-04-03 18:00: 0.0035
2025-04-04 00:00: 0.0035
2025-04-04 06:00: 0.0035
2025-04-04 12:00: 0.0035
2025-04-04 18:00: 0.0035
2025-04-05 00:00: 0.0035
2025-04-05 06:00: 0.0035
2025-04-05 12:00: 0.0035
2025-04-05 18:00: 0.0035
2025-04-06 00:00: 0.0035
2025-04-06 06:00: 0.0035
Trade Summary: Total trades: 62, Buy volume: 1220.10, Sell volume: 6605.85, Average price: 0.7402, Price range: 0.0020 - 0.9980
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike, wash_trading

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 520418
Question: Will CDU/CSU, SPD, and Greens form the next German Government?
Volume: 866659.104358
Price History:
2025-04-06 12:00: 0.9965
2025-04-06 18:00: 0.9965
2025-04-07 00:00: 0.9970
2025-04-07 06:00: 0.9970
2025-04-07 12:00: 0.9970
2025-04-07 18:00: 0.9970
2025-04-08 00:00: 0.9970
2025-04-08 06:00: 0.9970
2025-04-08 12:00: 0.9970
2025-04-08 18:00: 0.9975
2025-04-09 00:00: 0.9980
2025-04-09 06:00: 0.9980
2025-04-09 12:00: 0.9980
2025-04-09 18:00: 0.9985
2025-04-10 00:00: 0.9985
2025-04-10 06:00: 0.9985
2025-04-10 12:00: 0.9985
2025-04-10 18:00: 0.9985
2025-04-11 00:00: 0.9985
2025-04-11 06:00: 0.9985
2025-04-11 12:00: 0.9985
2025-04-11 18:00: 0.9985
2025-04-12 00:00: 0.9985
2025-04-12 06:00: 0.9985
2025-04-12 12:00: 0.9985
2025-04-12 18:00: 0.9985
2025-04-13 00:00: 0.9985
2025-04-13 06:00: 0.9985
2025-04-13 12:00: 0.9985
2025-04-13 18:00: 0.9985
Trade Summary: Total trades: 74, Buy volume: 9965.65, Sell volume: 10907.00, Average price: 0.8776, Price range: 0.0010 - 0.9990
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike, wash_trading

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 520418
Question: Will CDU/CSU, SPD, and Greens form the next German Government?
Volume: 866659.104358
Price History:
2025-04-14 01:00: 0.0015
2025-04-14 07:00: 0.0015
2025-04-14 13:00: 0.0015
2025-04-14 19:00: 0.0015
2025-04-15 01:00: 0.0015
2025-04-15 07:00: 0.0015
2025-04-15 13:00: 0.0025
2025-04-15 19:00: 0.0025
2025-04-16 01:00: 0.0025
2025-04-16 07:00: 0.0025
2025-04-16 13:00: 0.0025
2025-04-16 19:00: 0.0025
2025-04-17 01:00: 0.0025
2025-04-17 07:00: 0.0025
2025-04-17 13:00: 0.0025
2025-04-17 19:00: 0.0025
2025-04-18 01:00: 0.0025
2025-04-18 07:00: 0.0025
2025-04-18 13:00: 0.0025
2025-04-18 19:00: 0.0025
2025-04-19 01:00: 0.0025
2025-04-19 07:00: 0.0025
2025-04-19 13:00: 0.0025
2025-04-19 19:00: 0.0025
2025-04-20 01:00: 0.0025
2025-04-20 07:00: 0.0025
2025-04-20 13:00: 0.0025
2025-04-20 19:00: 0.0025
2025-04-21 01:00: 0.0025
2025-04-21 07:00: 0.0025
Trade Summary: Total trades: 98, Buy volume: 3280.10, Sell volume: 2231.38, Average price: 0.9267, Price range: 0.0010 - 0.9990
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike, wash_trading

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 520418
Question: Will CDU/CSU, SPD, and Greens form the next German Government?
Volume: 866659.104358
Price History:
2025-04-21 13:00: 0.9975
2025-04-21 19:00: 0.9975
2025-04-22 01:00: 0.9975
2025-04-22 07:00: 0.9975
2025-04-22 13:00: 0.9975
2025-04-22 19:00: 0.9975
2025-04-23 01:00: 0.9975
2025-04-23 07:00: 0.9975
2025-04-23 13:00: 0.9975
2025-04-23 19:00: 0.9975
2025-04-24 01:00: 0.9975
2025-04-24 07:00: 0.9970
2025-04-24 13:00: 0.9970
2025-04-24 19:00: 0.9970
2025-04-25 01:00: 0.9970
2025-04-25 07:00: 0.9970
2025-04-25 13:00: 0.9970
2025-04-25 19:00: 0.9970
2025-04-26 01:00: 0.9970
2025-04-26 07:00: 0.9965
2025-04-26 13:00: 0.9965
2025-04-26 19:00: 0.9985
2025-04-27 01:00: 0.9975
2025-04-27 07:00: 0.9975
2025-04-27 13:00: 0.9985
2025-04-27 19:00: 0.9975
2025-04-28 01:00: 0.9980
2025-04-28 07:00: 0.9970
2025-04-28 13:00: 0.9970
2025-04-28 19:00: 0.9975
Trade Summary: Total trades: 105, Buy volume: 7346.29, Sell volume: 1481.39, Average price: 0.8741, Price range: 0.0010 - 0.9990
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike, wash_trading

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 520418
Question: Will CDU/CSU, SPD, and Greens form the next German Government?
Volume: 866659.104358
Price History:
2025-04-29 02:00: 0.0025
2025-04-29 08:00: 0.0020
2025-04-29 14:00: 0.0020
2025-04-29 20:00: 0.0020
2025-04-30 02:00: 0.0020
2025-04-30 08:00: 0.0005
2025-04-30 14:00: 0.0005
2025-04-30 20:00: 0.0005
2025-05-01 02:00: 0.0005
2025-05-01 08:00: 0.0005
2025-05-01 14:00: 0.0005
2025-05-01 20:00: 0.0005
2025-05-02 02:00: 0.0005
2025-05-02 08:00: 0.0005
2025-05-02 14:00: 0.0005
2025-05-02 20:00: 0.0005
2025-05-03 02:00: 0.0005
2025-05-03 08:00: 0.0005
2025-05-03 14:00: 0.0005
2025-05-03 20:00: 0.0005
2025-05-04 02:00: 0.0005
2025-05-04 08:00: 0.0005
2025-05-04 14:00: 0.0005
2025-05-04 20:00: 0.0005
2025-05-05 02:00: 0.0005
2025-05-05 08:00: 0.0005
2025-05-05 14:00: 0.0005
2025-05-05 20:00: 0.0005
2025-05-06 02:00: 0.0005
2025-05-06 08:00: 0.0075
Trade Summary: Total trades: 96, Buy volume: 60877.23, Sell volume: 13133.96, Average price: 0.7494, Price range: 0.0010 - 0.9990
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike, wash_trading

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 527810
Question: Will no leader be out in 2025?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 2181637.505629
Price History:
2025-03-11 19:00: 0.1100
2025-03-12 03:00: 0.0900
2025-03-12 11:00: 0.0900
2025-03-12 19:00: 0.0850
2025-03-13 03:00: 0.0850
2025-03-13 11:00: 0.0850
2025-03-13 19:00: 0.0800
2025-03-14 03:00: 0.0750
2025-03-14 11:00: 0.0650
2025-03-14 19:00: 0.1050
2025-03-15 03:00: 0.1050
2025-03-15 11:00: 0.1000
2025-03-15 19:00: 0.0950
2025-03-16 03:00: 0.0900
2025-03-16 11:00: 0.0900
2025-03-16 19:00: 0.0850
2025-03-17 03:00: 0.0850
2025-03-17 11:00: 0.0900
2025-03-17 19:00: 0.0850
2025-03-18 03:00: 0.0850
2025-03-18 11:00: 0.0900
2025-03-18 19:00: 0.0900
2025-03-19 03:00: 0.0900
2025-03-19 11:00: 0.0900
2025-03-19 19:00: 0.0900
2025-03-20 03:00: 0.0900
2025-03-20 11:00: 0.0900
2025-03-20 19:00: 0.0900
2025-03-21 03:00: 0.0900
2025-03-21 11:00: 0.0950
2025-03-21 19:00: 0.0950
2025-03-22 03:00: 0.0950
2025-03-22 11:00: 0.0950
2025-03-22 19:00: 0.0950
2025-03-23 03:00: 0.0950
2025-03-23 11:00: 0.0950
2025-03-23 19:00: 0.0950
2025-03-24 03:00: 0.0950
2025-03-24 11:00: 0.1000
2025-03-24 19:00: 0.1050
2025-03-25 03:00: 0.1450
2025-03-25 11:00: 0.1250
2025-03-25 19:00: 0.1250
2025-03-26 03:00: 0.1250
2025-03-26 11:00: 0.1450
2025-03-26 19:00: 0.1250
2025-03-27 03:00: 0.1250
2025-03-27 11:00: 0.1250
2025-03-27 19:00: 0.1250
2025-03-28 03:00: 0.1250
Trade Summary: Total trades: 1000000, Buy volume: 304787932.55, Sell volume: 114347171.78, Average price: 0.7011, Price range: 0.0010 - 0.9990

Output: No


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 527810
Question: Will no leader be out in 2025?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 2181637.505629
Price History:
2025-03-29 00:00: 0.1200
2025-03-29 08:00: 0.1200
2025-03-29 16:00: 0.1200
2025-03-30 00:00: 0.1200
2025-03-30 08:00: 0.1200
2025-03-30 16:00: 0.1200
2025-03-31 00:00: 0.1200
2025-03-31 08:00: 0.1250
2025-03-31 16:00: 0.1200
2025-04-01 00:00: 0.1300
2025-04-01 08:00: 0.1200
2025-04-01 16:00: 0.1200
2025-04-02 00:00: 0.1200
2025-04-02 08:00: 0.1450
2025-04-02 16:00: 0.1150
2025-04-03 00:00: 0.1300
2025-04-03 08:00: 0.1200
2025-04-03 16:00: 0.1200
2025-04-04 00:00: 0.1200
2025-04-04 08:00: 0.1250
2025-04-04 16:00: 0.1250
2025-04-05 00:00: 0.1250
2025-04-05 08:00: 0.1300
2025-04-05 16:00: 0.1250
2025-04-06 00:00: 0.1350
2025-04-06 08:00: 0.1400
2025-04-06 16:00: 0.1400
2025-04-07 00:00: 0.1400
2025-04-07 08:00: 0.1400
2025-04-07 16:00: 0.1700
2025-04-08 00:00: 0.1900
2025-04-08 08:00: 0.2450
2025-04-08 16:00: 0.2100
2025-04-09 00:00: 0.2100
2025-04-09 08:00: 0.2100
2025-04-09 16:00: 0.2150
2025-04-10 00:00: 0.2200
2025-04-10 08:00: 0.2200
2025-04-10 16:00: 0.2200
2025-04-11 00:00: 0.2200
2025-04-11 08:00: 0.2200
2025-04-11 16:00: 0.2200
2025-04-12 00:00: 0.2100
2025-04-12 08:00: 0.2100
2025-04-12 16:00: 0.2100
2025-04-13 00:00: 0.2100
2025-04-13 08:00: 0.2100
2025-04-13 16:00: 0.2200
2025-04-14 00:00: 0.2350
2025-04-14 08:00: 0.2650
Trade Summary: Total trades: 1000000, Buy volume: 304787932.55, Sell volume: 114347171.78, Average price: 0.7011, Price range: 0.0010 - 0.9990

Output: No


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 527810
Question: Will no leader be out in 2025?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 2181637.505629
Price History:
2025-04-15 05:00: 0.2600
2025-04-15 13:00: 0.2800
2025-04-15 21:00: 0.2450
2025-04-16 05:00: 0.2500
2025-04-16 13:00: 0.2650
2025-04-16 21:00: 0.2550
2025-04-17 05:00: 0.2550
2025-04-17 13:00: 0.2700
2025-04-17 21:00: 0.2750
2025-04-18 05:00: 0.2600
2025-04-18 13:00: 0.2000
2025-04-18 21:00: 0.2000
2025-04-19 05:00: 0.2000
2025-04-19 13:00: 0.2000
2025-04-19 21:00: 0.2000
2025-04-20 05:00: 0.2000
2025-04-20 13:00: 0.1950
2025-04-20 21:00: 0.1950
2025-04-21 05:00: 0.1950
2025-04-21 13:00: 0.1950
2025-04-21 21:00: 0.2100
2025-04-22 05:00: 0.2100
2025-04-22 13:00: 0.2100
2025-04-22 21:00: 0.2150
2025-04-23 05:00: 0.2150
2025-04-23 13:00: 0.2150
2025-04-23 21:00: 0.2150
2025-04-24 05:00: 0.2150
2025-04-24 13:00: 0.2150
2025-04-24 21:00: 0.2150
2025-04-25 05:00: 0.2150
2025-04-25 13:00: 0.2150
2025-04-25 21:00: 0.2100
2025-04-26 05:00: 0.2100
2025-04-26 13:00: 0.2100
2025-04-26 21:00: 0.2100
2025-04-27 05:00: 0.2100
2025-04-27 13:00: 0.2050
2025-04-27 21:00: 0.2100
2025-04-28 05:00: 0.2100
2025-04-28 13:00: 0.2100
2025-04-28 21:00: 0.2100
2025-04-29 05:00: 0.2100
2025-04-29 13:00: 0.2100
2025-04-29 21:00: 0.2100
2025-04-30 05:00: 0.2150
2025-04-30 13:00: 0.2650
2025-04-30 21:00: 0.2650
2025-05-01 05:00: 0.2700
2025-05-01 13:00: 0.2850
Trade Summary: Total trades: 1000000, Buy volume: 304787932.55, Sell volume: 114347171.78, Average price: 0.7011, Price range: 0.0010 - 0.9990

Output: No


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 527810
Question: Will no leader be out in 2025?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 2181637.505629
Price History:
2025-05-02 10:00: 0.2750
2025-05-02 18:00: 0.2750
2025-05-03 02:00: 0.2750
2025-05-03 10:00: 0.2750
2025-05-03 18:00: 0.2700
2025-05-04 02:00: 0.2700
2025-05-04 10:00: 0.2800
2025-05-04 18:00: 0.2750
2025-05-05 02:00: 0.2850
2025-05-05 10:00: 0.2850
2025-05-05 18:00: 0.2750
2025-05-06 02:00: 0.2950
2025-05-06 10:00: 0.2850
2025-05-06 18:00: 0.2850
2025-05-07 02:00: 0.2850
2025-05-07 10:00: 0.2850
2025-05-07 18:00: 0.2900
2025-05-08 02:00: 0.2900
2025-05-08 10:00: 0.2950
2025-05-08 18:00: 0.2850
2025-05-09 02:00: 0.2950
2025-05-09 10:00: 0.2850
2025-05-09 18:00: 0.2850
2025-05-10 02:00: 0.2950
2025-05-10 10:00: 0.2950
2025-05-10 18:00: 0.3000
2025-05-11 02:00: 0.3000
2025-05-11 10:00: 0.3150
2025-05-11 18:00: 0.3150
2025-05-12 02:00: 0.3300
2025-05-12 10:00: 0.3250
2025-05-12 18:00: 0.3300
2025-05-13 02:00: 0.3350
2025-05-13 10:00: 0.3250
2025-05-13 18:00: 0.3250
2025-05-14 02:00: 0.3350
2025-05-14 10:00: 0.3350
2025-05-14 18:00: 0.3300
2025-05-15 02:00: 0.3250
2025-05-15 10:00: 0.3250
2025-05-15 18:00: 0.3200
2025-05-16 02:00: 0.3200
2025-05-16 10:00: 0.3200
2025-05-16 18:00: 0.3200
2025-05-17 02:00: 0.3200
2025-05-17 10:00: 0.3150
2025-05-17 18:00: 0.3150
2025-05-18 02:00: 0.3250
2025-05-18 10:00: 0.3450
2025-05-18 18:00: 0.3400
Trade Summary: Total trades: 1000000, Buy volume: 304787932.55, Sell volume: 114347171.78, Average price: 0.7011, Price range: 0.0010 - 0.9990

Output: No


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 527810
Question: Will no leader be out in 2025?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 2181637.505629
Price History:
2025-05-19 15:00: 0.3400
2025-05-19 23:00: 0.3300
2025-05-20 07:00: 0.3300
2025-05-20 15:00: 0.3250
2025-05-20 23:00: 0.3300
2025-05-21 07:00: 0.3350
2025-05-21 15:00: 0.3300
2025-05-21 23:00: 0.3500
2025-05-22 07:00: 0.3300
2025-05-22 15:00: 0.3300
2025-05-22 23:00: 0.3300
2025-05-23 07:00: 0.3300
2025-05-23 15:00: 0.3250
2025-05-23 23:00: 0.3300
2025-05-24 07:00: 0.3300
2025-05-24 15:00: 0.3350
2025-05-24 23:00: 0.3200
2025-05-25 07:00: 0.3200
2025-05-25 15:00: 0.3200
2025-05-25 23:00: 0.3050
2025-05-26 07:00: 0.3050
2025-05-26 15:00: 0.3050
2025-05-26 23:00: 0.3050
2025-05-27 07:00: 0.3000
2025-05-27 15:00: 0.3150
2025-05-27 23:00: 0.3200
2025-05-28 07:00: 0.3200
2025-05-28 15:00: 0.2950
2025-05-28 23:00: 0.2250
2025-05-29 07:00: 0.2250
2025-05-29 15:00: 0.2450
2025-05-29 23:00: 0.2450
2025-05-30 07:00: 0.2600
2025-05-30 15:00: 0.2600
2025-05-30 23:00: 0.2600
2025-05-31 07:00: 0.2650
2025-05-31 15:00: 0.2750
2025-05-31 23:00: 0.2750
2025-06-01 07:00: 0.2850
2025-06-01 15:00: 0.2900
2025-06-01 23:00: 0.2950
2025-06-02 07:00: 0.3050
2025-06-02 15:00: 0.3000
2025-06-02 23:00: 0.3200
2025-06-03 07:00: 0.3250
2025-06-03 15:00: 0.3200
2025-06-03 23:00: 0.3050
2025-06-04 07:00: 0.3050
2025-06-04 15:00: 0.2400
2025-06-04 23:00: 0.2650
Trade Summary: Total trades: 1000000, Buy volume: 304787932.55, Sell volume: 114347171.78, Average price: 0.7011, Price range: 0.0010 - 0.9990

Output: No


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 527810
Question: Will no leader be out in 2025?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 2181637.505629
Price History:
2025-06-05 20:00: 0.2650
2025-06-06 04:00: 0.2550
2025-06-06 12:00: 0.2750
2025-06-06 20:00: 0.3450
2025-06-07 04:00: 0.3350
2025-06-07 12:00: 0.3350
2025-06-07 20:00: 0.3500
2025-06-08 04:00: 0.3500
2025-06-08 12:00: 0.3500
2025-06-08 20:00: 0.3550
2025-06-09 04:00: 0.3550
2025-06-09 12:00: 0.3550
2025-06-09 20:00: 0.3700
2025-06-10 04:00: 0.3650
2025-06-10 12:00: 0.3850
2025-06-10 20:00: 0.3900
2025-06-11 04:00: 0.4150
2025-06-11 12:00: 0.4100
2025-06-11 20:00: 0.4050
2025-06-12 04:00: 0.4750
2025-06-12 12:00: 0.5250
2025-06-12 20:00: 0.5200
2025-06-13 05:00: 0.4400
2025-06-13 13:00: 0.4250
2025-06-13 21:00: 0.3950
2025-06-14 05:00: 0.3950
2025-06-14 13:00: 0.3850
2025-06-14 21:00: 0.3500
2025-06-15 05:00: 0.3450
2025-06-15 13:00: 0.3500
2025-06-15 21:00: 0.3550
2025-06-16 05:00: 0.3550
2025-06-16 13:00: 0.3600
2025-06-16 21:00: 0.2300
2025-06-17 05:00: 0.2500
2025-06-17 13:00: 0.2550
2025-06-17 21:00: 0.2100
2025-06-18 05:00: 0.2200
2025-06-18 13:00: 0.2750
2025-06-18 21:00: 0.2600
2025-06-19 05:00: 0.2550
2025-06-19 13:00: 0.2200
2025-06-19 21:00: 0.2300
2025-06-20 05:00: 0.2550
2025-06-20 13:00: 0.2350
2025-06-20 21:00: 0.2500
2025-06-21 05:00: 0.2650
2025-06-21 13:00: 0.2850
2025-06-21 21:00: 0.2250
2025-06-22 05:00: 0.2150
Trade Summary: Total trades: 1000000, Buy volume: 304787932.55, Sell volume: 114347171.78, Average price: 0.7011, Price range: 0.0010 - 0.9990

Output: No


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 527810
Question: Will no leader be out in 2025?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 2181637.505629
Price History:
2025-06-23 02:00: 0.2550
2025-06-23 10:00: 0.2600
2025-06-23 18:00: 0.2350
2025-06-24 02:00: 0.2650
2025-06-24 10:00: 0.3150
2025-06-24 18:00: 0.3600
2025-06-25 02:00: 0.3600
2025-06-25 10:00: 0.3600
2025-06-25 18:00: 0.3650
2025-06-26 02:00: 0.3400
2025-06-26 10:00: 0.3250
2025-06-26 18:00: 0.3750
2025-06-27 02:00: 0.3650
2025-06-27 10:00: 0.3650
2025-06-27 18:00: 0.3700
2025-06-28 02:00: 0.3700
2025-06-28 10:00: 0.3700
2025-06-28 18:00: 0.3700
2025-06-29 02:00: 0.3700
2025-06-29 10:00: 0.3750
2025-06-29 18:00: 0.3850
2025-06-30 02:00: 0.3800
2025-06-30 10:00: 0.3800
2025-06-30 18:00: 0.3850
2025-07-01 02:00: 0.3850
2025-07-01 10:00: 0.4250
2025-07-01 18:00: 0.4300
2025-07-02 02:00: 0.4250
2025-07-02 10:00: 0.4400
2025-07-02 18:00: 0.4050
2025-07-03 02:00: 0.4050
2025-07-03 10:00: 0.3800
2025-07-03 18:00: 0.4050
2025-07-04 02:00: 0.4100
2025-07-04 10:00: 0.3850
2025-07-04 18:00: 0.3500
2025-07-05 02:00: 0.3550
2025-07-05 10:00: 0.3500
2025-07-05 18:00: 0.3450
2025-07-06 02:00: 0.3450
2025-07-06 10:00: 0.3450
2025-07-06 18:00: 0.3350
2025-07-07 02:00: 0.3400
2025-07-07 10:00: 0.3550
2025-07-07 18:00: 0.3650
2025-07-08 02:00: 0.3500
2025-07-08 10:00: 0.2850
2025-07-08 18:00: 0.3150
2025-07-09 02:00: 0.3200
2025-07-09 10:00: 0.3200
Trade Summary: Total trades: 1000000, Buy volume: 304787932.55, Sell volume: 114347171.78, Average price: 0.7011, Price range: 0.0010 - 0.9990

Output: No


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 527810
Question: Will no leader be out in 2025?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 2181637.505629
Price History:
2025-07-10 07:00: 0.2650
2025-07-10 15:00: 0.3050
2025-07-10 23:00: 0.2950
2025-07-11 07:00: 0.2900
2025-07-11 15:00: 0.2900
2025-07-11 23:00: 0.2950
2025-07-12 07:00: 0.2950
2025-07-12 15:00: 0.2850
2025-07-12 23:00: 0.2850
2025-07-13 07:00: 0.3050
2025-07-13 15:00: 0.3150
2025-07-13 23:00: 0.3050
2025-07-14 07:00: 0.3100
2025-07-14 15:00: 0.3150
2025-07-14 23:00: 0.2850
2025-07-15 07:00: 0.2950
2025-07-15 15:00: 0.2950
2025-07-15 23:00: 0.2850
2025-07-16 07:00: 0.2850
2025-07-16 15:00: 0.2750
2025-07-16 23:00: 0.2550
2025-07-17 07:00: 0.2650
2025-07-17 15:00: 0.2400
2025-07-17 23:00: 0.2450
2025-07-18 07:00: 0.2450
2025-07-18 15:00: 0.2000
2025-07-18 23:00: 0.2450
2025-07-19 07:00: 0.2500
2025-07-19 15:00: 0.2450
2025-07-19 23:00: 0.2550
2025-07-20 07:00: 0.1800
2025-07-20 15:00: 0.2250
2025-07-20 23:00: 0.2550
2025-07-21 07:00: 0.2900
2025-07-21 15:00: 0.2950
2025-07-21 23:00: 0.3100
2025-07-22 07:00: 0.3050
2025-07-22 15:00: 0.2750
2025-07-22 23:00: 0.0275
2025-07-23 06:00: 0.1675
2025-07-23 14:00: 0.1650
2025-07-23 22:00: 0.1600
2025-07-24 06:00: 0.1850
2025-07-24 14:00: 0.1800
2025-07-24 22:00: 0.1885
2025-07-25 06:00: 0.1655
2025-07-25 14:00: 0.1825
2025-07-25 22:00: 0.1630
2025-07-26 06:00: 0.1265
2025-07-26 14:00: 0.1670
Trade Summary: Total trades: 1000000, Buy volume: 304787932.55, Sell volume: 114347171.78, Average price: 0.7011, Price range: 0.0010 - 0.9990

Output: No


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 527810
Question: Will no leader be out in 2025?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 2181637.505629
Price History:
2025-07-27 11:00: 0.1830
2025-07-27 19:00: 0.1965
2025-07-28 03:00: 0.1855
2025-07-28 11:00: 0.2025
2025-07-28 19:00: 0.1950
2025-07-29 03:00: 0.1995
2025-07-29 11:00: 0.2050
2025-07-29 19:00: 0.2130
2025-07-30 03:00: 0.2075
2025-07-30 11:00: 0.2075
2025-07-30 19:00: 0.1735
2025-07-31 03:00: 0.1595
2025-07-31 11:00: 0.2005
2025-07-31 19:00: 0.1945
2025-08-01 03:00: 0.1830
2025-08-01 11:00: 0.1915
2025-08-01 19:00: 0.1805
2025-08-02 03:00: 0.1830
2025-08-02 11:00: 0.1800
2025-08-02 19:00: 0.1575
2025-08-03 03:00: 0.1820
2025-08-03 11:00: 0.1870
2025-08-03 19:00: 0.1905
2025-08-04 03:00: 0.1915
2025-08-04 11:00: 0.1925
2025-08-04 19:00: 0.2110
2025-08-05 03:00: 0.2275
2025-08-05 11:00: 0.2685
2025-08-05 19:00: 0.2405
2025-08-06 03:00: 0.2615
2025-08-06 11:00: 0.2715
2025-08-06 19:00: 0.7105
2025-08-07 03:00: 0.2740
2025-08-07 11:00: 0.2765
2025-08-07 19:00: 0.2300
2025-08-08 03:00: 0.2220
2025-08-08 11:00: 0.2665
2025-08-08 19:00: 0.2620
2025-08-09 03:00: 0.7460
2025-08-09 11:00: 0.7380
2025-08-09 19:00: 0.7355
2025-08-10 03:00: 0.2655
2025-08-10 11:00: 0.2480
2025-08-10 19:00: 0.2460
2025-08-11 03:00: 0.7365
2025-08-11 11:00: 0.7310
2025-08-11 19:00: 0.7305
2025-08-12 03:00: 0.2605
2025-08-12 11:00: 0.7435
2025-08-12 19:00: 0.7380
Trade Summary: Total trades: 1000000, Buy volume: 304787932.55, Sell volume: 114347171.78, Average price: 0.7011, Price range: 0.0010 - 0.9990

Output: No


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 527810
Question: Will no leader be out in 2025?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 2181637.505629
Price History:
2025-08-13 16:00: 0.2610
2025-08-14 00:00: 0.2665
2025-08-14 08:00: 0.2510
2025-08-14 16:00: 0.7350
2025-08-15 00:00: 0.7295
2025-08-15 08:00: 0.2725
2025-08-15 16:00: 0.2725
2025-08-16 00:00: 0.7265
2025-08-16 08:00: 0.7330
2025-08-16 16:00: 0.2825
2025-08-17 00:00: 0.2835
2025-08-17 08:00: 0.2845
2025-08-17 16:00: 0.7145
2025-08-18 00:00: 0.7030
2025-08-18 08:00: 0.3080
2025-08-18 16:00: 0.3100
2025-08-19 00:00: 0.6550
2025-08-19 08:00: 0.3465
2025-08-19 16:00: 0.6530
2025-08-20 00:00: 0.3470
2025-08-20 08:00: 0.6535
2025-08-20 16:00: 0.6480
2025-08-21 00:00: 0.3755
2025-08-21 08:00: 0.4295
2025-08-21 16:00: 0.5950
2025-08-22 00:00: 0.4320
2025-08-22 08:00: 0.4275
2025-08-22 16:00: 0.4410
2025-08-23 00:00: 0.5450
2025-08-23 08:00: 0.4465
2025-08-23 16:00: 0.4635
2025-08-24 00:00: 0.5225
2025-08-24 08:00: 0.5160
2025-08-24 16:00: 0.5110
2025-08-25 00:00: 0.5030
2025-08-25 08:00: 0.5040
2025-08-25 16:00: 0.5115
2025-08-25 23:00: 0.5200
2025-08-26 07:00: 0.4925
2025-08-26 15:00: 0.4970
2025-08-26 23:00: 0.5030
2025-08-27 07:00: 0.5025
2025-08-27 15:00: 0.4885
2025-08-27 23:00: 0.5745
2025-08-28 07:00: 0.4285
2025-08-28 15:00: 0.4495
2025-08-28 23:00: 0.5500
2025-08-29 07:00: 0.5685
2025-08-29 15:00: 0.5565
2025-08-29 23:00: 0.4580
Trade Summary: Total trades: 1000000, Buy volume: 304787932.55, Sell volume: 114347171.78, Average price: 0.7011, Price range: 0.0010 - 0.9990

Output: No


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 527810
Question: Will no leader be out in 2025?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 2181637.505629
Price History:
2025-08-30 20:00: 0.4730
2025-08-31 04:00: 0.4735
2025-08-31 12:00: 0.5385
2025-08-31 20:00: 0.4705
2025-09-01 04:00: 0.4715
2025-09-01 12:00: 0.5275
2025-09-01 20:00: 0.5380
2025-09-02 04:00: 0.4735
2025-09-02 12:00: 0.5505
2025-09-02 20:00: 0.5470
2025-09-03 04:00: 0.6185
2025-09-03 12:00: 0.4585
2025-09-03 20:00: 0.4510
2025-09-04 04:00: 0.4520
2025-09-04 12:00: 0.5470
2025-09-04 20:00: 0.4305
2025-09-05 04:00: 0.6080
2025-09-05 12:00: 0.5765
2025-09-05 20:00: 0.6915
2025-09-06 04:00: 0.3050
2025-09-06 12:00: 0.7200
2025-09-06 20:00: 0.7875
2025-09-07 04:00: 0.0075
2025-09-07 12:00: 0.0030
2025-09-07 20:00: 0.0105
2025-09-08 04:00: 0.9920
2025-09-08 12:00: 0.0060
2025-09-08 20:00: 0.9940
2025-09-09 04:00: 0.0075
2025-09-09 12:00: 0.0045
2025-09-09 20:00: 0.0040
2025-09-10 04:00: 0.0040
2025-09-10 12:00: 0.0050
2025-09-10 20:00: 0.9950
2025-09-11 04:00: 0.0055
2025-09-11 12:00: 0.0040
2025-09-11 20:00: 0.9940
2025-09-12 04:00: 0.0055
2025-09-12 12:00: 0.0055
2025-09-12 20:00: 0.9955
2025-09-13 04:00: 0.9940
2025-09-13 12:00: 0.0055
2025-09-13 20:00: 0.0055
2025-09-14 04:00: 0.9960
2025-09-14 12:00: 0.0040
2025-09-14 20:00: 0.0045
2025-09-15 04:00: 0.0045
2025-09-15 12:00: 0.0040
2025-09-15 20:00: 0.0035
2025-09-16 04:00: 0.0035
Trade Summary: Total trades: 1000000, Buy volume: 304787932.55, Sell volume: 114347171.78, Average price: 0.7011, Price range: 0.0010 - 0.9990

Output: No


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 527810
Question: Will no leader be out in 2025?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 2181637.505629
Price History:
2025-09-17 01:00: 0.0045
2025-09-17 09:00: 0.9970
2025-09-17 18:00: 0.0030
2025-09-18 02:00: 0.0030
2025-09-18 10:00: 0.0030
2025-09-18 18:00: 0.0030
2025-09-19 02:00: 0.0025
2025-09-19 10:00: 0.0015
2025-09-19 18:00: 0.0025
2025-09-20 02:00: 0.0025
2025-09-20 10:00: 0.0025
2025-09-20 18:00: 0.9975
2025-09-21 02:00: 0.9970
2025-09-21 10:00: 0.0025
2025-09-21 18:00: 0.0025
2025-09-22 02:00: 0.0025
2025-09-22 10:00: 0.0025
2025-09-22 18:00: 0.0025
2025-09-23 02:00: 0.0025
2025-09-23 10:00: 0.9975
2025-09-23 18:00: 0.0025
2025-09-24 02:00: 0.0025
2025-09-24 10:00: 0.0025
2025-09-24 18:00: 0.0025
2025-09-25 02:00: 0.9975
2025-09-25 10:00: 0.0025
2025-09-25 18:00: 0.9955
2025-09-26 02:00: 0.9960
2025-09-26 10:00: 0.0040
2025-09-26 18:00: 0.0040
2025-09-27 02:00: 0.9960
2025-09-27 10:00: 0.0040
2025-09-27 18:00: 0.0040
2025-09-28 02:00: 0.0035
2025-09-28 10:00: 0.9960
2025-09-28 18:00: 0.9960
2025-09-29 02:00: 0.9960
2025-09-29 10:00: 0.9965
2025-09-29 18:00: 0.0030
2025-09-30 02:00: 0.0030
2025-09-30 10:00: 0.9970
2025-09-30 18:00: 0.0020
2025-10-01 02:00: 0.0045
2025-10-01 10:00: 0.9980
2025-10-01 18:00: 0.0030
2025-10-02 02:00: 0.9995
2025-10-02 10:00: 0.0005
2025-10-02 18:00: 0.0015
2025-10-03 02:00: 0.9990
2025-10-03 10:00: 0.0005
Trade Summary: Total trades: 1000000, Buy volume: 304787932.55, Sell volume: 114347171.78, Average price: 0.7011, Price range: 0.0010 - 0.9990

Output: No


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 527810
Question: Will no leader be out in 2025?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 2181637.505629
Price History:
2025-10-04 07:00: 0.0005
2025-10-04 15:00: 0.9985
2025-10-04 23:00: 0.0010
2025-10-05 07:00: 0.0015
2025-10-05 15:00: 0.0015
2025-10-05 23:00: 0.0015
2025-10-06 07:00: 0.9985
2025-10-06 15:00: 0.9985
2025-10-06 23:00: 0.0015
2025-10-07 07:00: 0.9995
2025-10-07 15:00: 0.9990
2025-10-07 23:00: 0.9990
2025-10-08 07:00: 0.0005
2025-10-08 15:00: 0.0010
2025-10-08 23:00: 0.0005
2025-10-09 07:00: 0.9985
2025-10-09 15:00: 0.9985
2025-10-09 23:00: 0.9985
2025-10-10 07:00: 0.9985
2025-10-10 15:00: 0.0235
2025-10-10 23:00: 0.0220
2025-10-11 07:00: 0.0125
2025-10-11 15:00: 0.0120
2025-10-11 23:00: 0.0085
2025-10-12 07:00: 0.0155
2025-10-12 15:00: 0.0120
2025-10-12 23:00: 0.0110
2025-10-13 07:00: 0.0110
2025-10-13 15:00: 0.0105
2025-10-13 23:00: 0.0115
2025-10-14 07:00: 0.0145
2025-10-14 15:00: 0.9870
2025-10-14 23:00: 0.9825
2025-10-15 07:00: 0.0205
2025-10-15 15:00: 0.9840
2025-10-15 23:00: 0.9745
2025-10-16 07:00: 0.9805
2025-10-16 15:00: 0.0145
2025-10-16 23:00: 0.0145
2025-10-17 07:00: 0.9855
2025-10-17 15:00: 0.0170
2025-10-17 23:00: 0.9865
2025-10-18 07:00: 0.0055
2025-10-18 15:00: 0.9925
2025-10-18 23:00: 0.0055
2025-10-19 07:00: 0.9975
2025-10-19 15:00: 0.9960
2025-10-19 23:00: 0.9955
2025-10-20 07:00: 0.0055
2025-10-20 15:00: 0.0025
Trade Summary: Total trades: 999995, Buy volume: 304782932.55, Sell volume: 114347171.78, Average price: 0.7011, Price range: 0.0010 - 0.9990

Output: No


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 527810
Question: Will no leader be out in 2025?
Volume: 2181637.505629
Price History:
2025-03-11 19:00: 0.1100
2025-03-12 08:00: 0.9100
2025-03-12 22:00: 0.0850
2025-03-13 11:00: 0.9150
2025-03-14 01:00: 0.0750
2025-03-14 14:00: 0.9050
2025-03-15 04:00: 0.1050
2025-03-15 17:00: 0.9050
2025-03-16 07:00: 0.0850
2025-03-16 20:00: 0.9100
2025-03-17 10:00: 0.0850
2025-03-17 23:00: 0.9150
2025-03-18 13:00: 0.0900
2025-03-19 02:00: 0.9100
2025-03-19 16:00: 0.0900
2025-03-20 05:00: 0.9100
2025-03-20 19:00: 0.0900
2025-03-21 08:00: 0.9050
2025-03-21 22:00: 0.0950
2025-03-22 11:00: 0.9050
2025-03-23 01:00: 0.0950
2025-03-23 14:00: 0.9050
2025-03-24 04:00: 0.0950
2025-03-24 17:00: 0.8950
2025-03-25 07:00: 0.1850
2025-03-25 20:00: 0.8750
2025-03-26 10:00: 0.1450
2025-03-26 23:00: 0.8650
2025-03-27 13:00: 0.1250
2025-03-28 02:00: 0.8750
Trade Summary: Total trades: 1000000, Buy volume: 304787932.55, Sell volume: 114347171.78, Average price: 0.7011, Price range: 0.0010 - 0.9990
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike, wash_trading

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 527810
Question: Will no leader be out in 2025?
Volume: 2181637.505629
Price History:
2025-03-29 00:00: 0.1200
2025-03-29 13:00: 0.8800
2025-03-30 03:00: 0.1200
2025-03-30 16:00: 0.8800
2025-03-31 06:00: 0.1350
2025-03-31 19:00: 0.8700
2025-04-01 09:00: 0.1200
2025-04-01 22:00: 0.8800
2025-04-02 12:00: 0.1450
2025-04-03 01:00: 0.8800
2025-04-03 15:00: 0.1200
2025-04-04 04:00: 0.8750
2025-04-04 18:00: 0.1250
2025-04-05 07:00: 0.8750
2025-04-05 21:00: 0.1350
2025-04-06 10:00: 0.8600
2025-04-07 00:00: 0.1400
2025-04-07 13:00: 0.8600
2025-04-08 03:00: 0.1900
2025-04-08 16:00: 0.7900
2025-04-09 06:00: 0.2100
2025-04-09 19:00: 0.7800
2025-04-10 09:00: 0.2200
2025-04-10 22:00: 0.7800
2025-04-11 12:00: 0.2200
2025-04-12 01:00: 0.7900
2025-04-12 15:00: 0.2100
2025-04-13 04:00: 0.7900
2025-04-13 18:00: 0.2100
2025-04-14 07:00: 0.7350
Trade Summary: Total trades: 1000000, Buy volume: 304787932.55, Sell volume: 114347171.78, Average price: 0.7011, Price range: 0.0010 - 0.9990
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike, wash_trading

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 527810
Question: Will no leader be out in 2025?
Volume: 2181637.505629
Price History:
2025-04-15 05:00: 0.2600
2025-04-15 18:00: 0.7500
2025-04-16 08:00: 0.2600
2025-04-16 21:00: 0.7450
2025-04-17 11:00: 0.2700
2025-04-18 00:00: 0.7250
2025-04-18 14:00: 0.2000
2025-04-19 03:00: 0.8000
2025-04-19 17:00: 0.2000
2025-04-20 06:00: 0.8000
2025-04-20 20:00: 0.1950
2025-04-21 09:00: 0.8050
2025-04-21 23:00: 0.2100
2025-04-22 12:00: 0.7900
2025-04-23 02:00: 0.2150
2025-04-23 15:00: 0.7850
2025-04-24 05:00: 0.2150
2025-04-24 18:00: 0.7850
2025-04-25 08:00: 0.2150
2025-04-25 21:00: 0.7900
2025-04-26 11:00: 0.2100
2025-04-27 00:00: 0.7900
2025-04-27 14:00: 0.2050
2025-04-28 03:00: 0.7900
2025-04-28 17:00: 0.2100
2025-04-29 06:00: 0.7900
2025-04-29 20:00: 0.2100
2025-04-30 09:00: 0.7550
2025-04-30 23:00: 0.2650
2025-05-01 12:00: 0.7300
Trade Summary: Total trades: 1000000, Buy volume: 304787932.55, Sell volume: 114347171.78, Average price: 0.7011, Price range: 0.0010 - 0.9990
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike, wash_trading

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 527810
Question: Will no leader be out in 2025?
Volume: 2181637.505629
Price History:
2025-05-02 10:00: 0.2750
2025-05-02 23:00: 0.7250
2025-05-03 13:00: 0.2750
2025-05-04 02:00: 0.7300
2025-05-04 16:00: 0.2750
2025-05-05 05:00: 0.7150
2025-05-05 19:00: 0.2750
2025-05-06 08:00: 0.7150
2025-05-06 22:00: 0.2850
2025-05-07 11:00: 0.7100
2025-05-08 01:00: 0.2900
2025-05-08 14:00: 0.7050
2025-05-09 04:00: 0.2850
2025-05-09 17:00: 0.7150
2025-05-10 07:00: 0.2950
2025-05-10 20:00: 0.7000
2025-05-11 10:00: 0.3150
2025-05-11 23:00: 0.6750
2025-05-12 13:00: 0.3300
2025-05-13 02:00: 0.6650
2025-05-13 16:00: 0.3250
2025-05-14 05:00: 0.6650
2025-05-14 19:00: 0.3250
2025-05-15 08:00: 0.6750
2025-05-15 22:00: 0.3200
2025-05-16 11:00: 0.6800
2025-05-17 01:00: 0.3200
2025-05-17 14:00: 0.6850
2025-05-18 04:00: 0.3250
2025-05-18 17:00: 0.6600
Trade Summary: Total trades: 1000000, Buy volume: 304787932.55, Sell volume: 114347171.78, Average price: 0.7011, Price range: 0.0010 - 0.9990
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, wash_trading

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 527810
Question: Will no leader be out in 2025?
Volume: 2181637.505629
Price History:
2025-05-19 15:00: 0.3400
2025-05-20 04:00: 0.6700
2025-05-20 18:00: 0.3300
2025-05-21 07:00: 0.6650
2025-05-21 21:00: 0.3400
2025-05-22 10:00: 0.6700
2025-05-23 00:00: 0.3250
2025-05-23 13:00: 0.6700
2025-05-24 03:00: 0.3250
2025-05-24 16:00: 0.6650
2025-05-25 06:00: 0.3200
2025-05-25 19:00: 0.6850
2025-05-26 09:00: 0.3050
2025-05-26 22:00: 0.6900
2025-05-27 12:00: 0.3100
2025-05-28 01:00: 0.6800
2025-05-28 15:00: 0.2950
2025-05-29 04:00: 0.7750
2025-05-29 18:00: 0.2450
2025-05-30 07:00: 0.7400
2025-05-30 21:00: 0.2550
2025-05-31 10:00: 0.7250
2025-06-01 00:00: 0.2750
2025-06-01 13:00: 0.7150
2025-06-02 03:00: 0.3050
2025-06-02 16:00: 0.7000
2025-06-03 06:00: 0.3200
2025-06-03 19:00: 0.6900
2025-06-04 09:00: 0.3050
2025-06-04 22:00: 0.7350
Trade Summary: Total trades: 1000000, Buy volume: 304787932.55, Sell volume: 114347171.78, Average price: 0.7011, Price range: 0.0010 - 0.9990
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike, wash_trading

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 527810
Question: Will no leader be out in 2025?
Volume: 2181637.505629
Price History:
2025-06-05 20:00: 0.2650
2025-06-06 09:00: 0.7250
2025-06-06 23:00: 0.3450
2025-06-07 12:00: 0.6650
2025-06-08 02:00: 0.3500
2025-06-08 15:00: 0.6550
2025-06-09 05:00: 0.3550
2025-06-09 18:00: 0.6300
2025-06-10 08:00: 0.3750
2025-06-10 21:00: 0.6100
2025-06-11 11:00: 0.4100
2025-06-12 00:00: 0.5350
2025-06-12 14:00: 0.5300
2025-06-13 04:00: 0.5500
2025-06-13 18:00: 0.3700
2025-06-14 07:00: 0.6100
2025-06-14 21:00: 0.3500
2025-06-15 10:00: 0.6500
2025-06-16 00:00: 0.3550
2025-06-16 13:00: 0.6400
2025-06-17 03:00: 0.2550
2025-06-17 16:00: 0.7600
2025-06-18 06:00: 0.2200
2025-06-18 19:00: 0.7450
2025-06-19 09:00: 0.2450
2025-06-19 22:00: 0.7700
2025-06-20 12:00: 0.2250
2025-06-21 01:00: 0.7400
2025-06-21 15:00: 0.2700
2025-06-22 04:00: 0.7750
Trade Summary: Total trades: 1000000, Buy volume: 304787932.55, Sell volume: 114347171.78, Average price: 0.7011, Price range: 0.0010 - 0.9990
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike, wash_trading

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 527810
Question: Will no leader be out in 2025?
Volume: 2181637.505629
Price History:
2025-06-23 02:00: 0.2550
2025-06-23 15:00: 0.7450
2025-06-24 05:00: 0.2600
2025-06-24 18:00: 0.6400
2025-06-25 08:00: 0.3600
2025-06-25 21:00: 0.6500
2025-06-26 11:00: 0.3250
2025-06-27 00:00: 0.6250
2025-06-27 14:00: 0.3700
2025-06-28 03:00: 0.6300
2025-06-28 17:00: 0.3700
2025-06-29 06:00: 0.6250
2025-06-29 20:00: 0.3850
2025-06-30 09:00: 0.6200
2025-06-30 23:00: 0.3800
2025-07-01 12:00: 0.5750
2025-07-02 02:00: 0.4250
2025-07-02 15:00: 0.5550
2025-07-03 05:00: 0.3650
2025-07-03 18:00: 0.5950
2025-07-04 08:00: 0.3750
2025-07-04 21:00: 0.6350
2025-07-05 11:00: 0.3350
2025-07-06 00:00: 0.6550
2025-07-06 14:00: 0.3350
2025-07-07 03:00: 0.6550
2025-07-07 17:00: 0.3650
2025-07-08 06:00: 0.6950
2025-07-08 20:00: 0.3150
2025-07-09 09:00: 0.6800
Trade Summary: Total trades: 1000000, Buy volume: 304787932.55, Sell volume: 114347171.78, Average price: 0.7011, Price range: 0.0010 - 0.9990
Manipulation Indicators Detected: price_spike, wash_trading

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 527810
Question: Will no leader be out in 2025?
Volume: 2181637.505629
Price History:
2025-07-10 07:00: 0.2650
2025-07-10 20:00: 0.7050
2025-07-11 10:00: 0.2900
2025-07-11 23:00: 0.7050
2025-07-12 13:00: 0.2850
2025-07-13 02:00: 0.7000
2025-07-13 16:00: 0.3150
2025-07-14 05:00: 0.6950
2025-07-14 19:00: 0.2850
2025-07-15 08:00: 0.7050
2025-07-15 22:00: 0.2850
2025-07-16 11:00: 0.7450
2025-07-17 01:00: 0.2550
2025-07-17 14:00: 0.7800
2025-07-18 04:00: 0.2500
2025-07-18 17:00: 0.7900
2025-07-19 07:00: 0.2500
2025-07-19 20:00: 0.7450
2025-07-20 10:00: 0.2250
2025-07-20 23:00: 0.7450
2025-07-21 13:00: 0.2850
2025-07-22 02:00: 0.6850
2025-07-22 16:00: 0.2750
2025-07-23 04:00: 0.8600
2025-07-23 18:00: 0.1520
2025-07-24 07:00: 0.8155
2025-07-24 21:00: 0.1900
2025-07-25 10:00: 0.8355
2025-07-26 00:00: 0.1655
2025-07-26 13:00: 0.8305
Trade Summary: Total trades: 1000000, Buy volume: 304787932.55, Sell volume: 114347171.78, Average price: 0.7011, Price range: 0.0010 - 0.9990
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike, wash_trading

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 527810
Question: Will no leader be out in 2025?
Volume: 2181637.505629
Price History:
2025-07-27 11:00: 0.1830
2025-07-28 00:00: 0.7955
2025-07-28 14:00: 0.2135
2025-07-29 03:00: 0.8005
2025-07-29 17:00: 0.2075
2025-07-30 06:00: 0.7925
2025-07-30 20:00: 0.1715
2025-07-31 09:00: 0.8580
2025-07-31 23:00: 0.1855
2025-08-01 12:00: 0.8160
2025-08-02 02:00: 0.1830
2025-08-02 15:00: 0.8530
2025-08-03 05:00: 0.1820
2025-08-03 18:00: 0.8130
2025-08-04 08:00: 0.1890
2025-08-04 21:00: 0.7855
2025-08-05 11:00: 0.2685
2025-08-06 00:00: 0.7645
2025-08-06 14:00: 0.2775
2025-08-07 03:00: 0.7260
2025-08-07 17:00: 0.2335
2025-08-08 06:00: 0.2320
2025-08-08 20:00: 0.7380
2025-08-09 09:00: 0.2485
2025-08-09 23:00: 0.2650
2025-08-10 12:00: 0.2465
2025-08-11 02:00: 0.2640
2025-08-11 15:00: 0.2660
2025-08-12 05:00: 0.2600
2025-08-12 18:00: 0.7380
Trade Summary: Total trades: 1000000, Buy volume: 304787932.55, Sell volume: 114347171.78, Average price: 0.7011, Price range: 0.0010 - 0.9990
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike, wash_trading

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 527810
Question: Will no leader be out in 2025?
Volume: 2181637.505629
Price History:
2025-08-13 16:00: 0.2610
2025-08-14 05:00: 0.2590
2025-08-14 19:00: 0.2680
2025-08-15 08:00: 0.7275
2025-08-15 22:00: 0.2730
2025-08-16 11:00: 0.2800
2025-08-17 01:00: 0.7170
2025-08-17 14:00: 0.7165
2025-08-18 04:00: 0.7050
2025-08-18 17:00: 0.6885
2025-08-19 07:00: 0.6530
2025-08-19 20:00: 0.6535
2025-08-20 10:00: 0.3465
2025-08-20 23:00: 0.6225
2025-08-21 13:00: 0.4060
2025-08-22 02:00: 0.5800
2025-08-22 16:00: 0.4410
2025-08-23 05:00: 0.4525
2025-08-23 19:00: 0.5310
2025-08-24 08:00: 0.4840
2025-08-24 22:00: 0.5050
2025-08-25 11:00: 0.5055
2025-08-26 00:00: 0.4735
2025-08-26 13:00: 0.5030
2025-08-27 03:00: 0.5030
2025-08-27 16:00: 0.5945
2025-08-28 06:00: 0.4290
2025-08-28 19:00: 0.5500
2025-08-29 09:00: 0.5650
2025-08-29 22:00: 0.4495
Trade Summary: Total trades: 1000000, Buy volume: 304787932.55, Sell volume: 114347171.78, Average price: 0.7011, Price range: 0.0010 - 0.9990
Manipulation Indicators Detected: wash_trading

Output: No


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 527810
Question: Will no leader be out in 2025?
Volume: 2181637.505629
Price History:
2025-08-30 20:00: 0.4730
2025-08-31 09:00: 0.4715
2025-08-31 23:00: 0.4700
2025-09-01 12:00: 0.4725
2025-09-02 02:00: 0.5355
2025-09-02 15:00: 0.4505
2025-09-03 05:00: 0.3870
2025-09-03 18:00: 0.5480
2025-09-04 08:00: 0.5455
2025-09-04 21:00: 0.5660
2025-09-05 11:00: 0.5715
2025-09-06 00:00: 0.3025
2025-09-06 14:00: 0.7430
2025-09-07 03:00: 0.0035
2025-09-07 17:00: 0.0195
2025-09-08 06:00: 0.9920
2025-09-08 20:00: 0.9940
2025-09-09 09:00: 0.9950
2025-09-09 23:00: 0.0040
2025-09-10 12:00: 0.9950
2025-09-11 02:00: 0.0050
2025-09-11 15:00: 0.9965
2025-09-12 05:00: 0.9945
2025-09-12 18:00: 0.9945
2025-09-13 08:00: 0.9940
2025-09-13 21:00: 0.0055
2025-09-14 11:00: 0.9960
2025-09-15 00:00: 0.9955
2025-09-15 14:00: 0.9965
2025-09-16 03:00: 0.9965
Trade Summary: Total trades: 1000000, Buy volume: 304787932.55, Sell volume: 114347171.78, Average price: 0.7011, Price range: 0.0010 - 0.9990
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike, wash_trading

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 527810
Question: Will no leader be out in 2025?
Volume: 2181637.505629
Price History:
2025-09-17 01:00: 0.0045
2025-09-17 15:00: 0.0035
2025-09-18 05:00: 0.9975
2025-09-18 18:00: 0.9970
2025-09-19 08:00: 0.0015
2025-09-19 21:00: 0.9975
2025-09-20 11:00: 0.0025
2025-09-21 00:00: 0.9970
2025-09-21 14:00: 0.0035
2025-09-22 03:00: 0.9975
2025-09-22 17:00: 0.0025
2025-09-23 06:00: 0.0025
2025-09-23 20:00: 0.0025
2025-09-24 09:00: 0.0025
2025-09-24 23:00: 0.0025
2025-09-25 12:00: 0.0030
2025-09-26 02:00: 0.9960
2025-09-26 15:00: 0.0040
2025-09-27 05:00: 0.0040
2025-09-27 18:00: 0.9960
2025-09-28 08:00: 0.9960
2025-09-28 21:00: 0.0040
2025-09-29 11:00: 0.0035
2025-09-30 00:00: 0.9970
2025-09-30 14:00: 0.9980
2025-10-01 03:00: 0.0035
2025-10-01 17:00: 0.0025
2025-10-02 06:00: 0.9995
2025-10-02 20:00: 0.0015
2025-10-03 09:00: 0.9995
Trade Summary: Total trades: 1000000, Buy volume: 304787932.55, Sell volume: 114347171.78, Average price: 0.7011, Price range: 0.0010 - 0.9990
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike, wash_trading

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 527810
Question: Will no leader be out in 2025?
Volume: 2181637.505629
Price History:
2025-10-04 07:00: 0.0005
2025-10-04 20:00: 0.9985
2025-10-05 10:00: 0.9985
2025-10-05 23:00: 0.9985
2025-10-06 13:00: 0.0015
2025-10-07 02:00: 0.0010
2025-10-07 16:00: 0.9990
2025-10-08 05:00: 0.9995
2025-10-08 19:00: 0.0005
2025-10-09 08:00: 0.0010
2025-10-09 22:00: 0.0015
2025-10-10 11:00: 0.9790
2025-10-11 01:00: 0.0155
2025-10-11 14:00: 0.0150
2025-10-12 04:00: 0.9865
2025-10-12 17:00: 0.9895
2025-10-13 07:00: 0.0110
2025-10-13 20:00: 0.0120
2025-10-14 10:00: 0.0145
2025-10-14 23:00: 0.0175
2025-10-15 13:00: 0.0180
2025-10-16 02:00: 0.0265
2025-10-16 16:00: 0.0150
2025-10-17 05:00: 0.9865
2025-10-17 19:00: 0.0130
2025-10-18 08:00: 0.9945
2025-10-18 22:00: 0.9945
2025-10-19 11:00: 0.0040
2025-10-20 01:00: 0.0045
2025-10-20 14:00: 0.9975
Trade Summary: Total trades: 999995, Buy volume: 304782932.55, Sell volume: 114347171.78, Average price: 0.7011, Price range: 0.0010 - 0.9990
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike, wash_trading

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 549635
Question: Will the Conservative Liberals win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 1666125.902582
Price History:
2025-06-03 19:00: 0.0155
2025-06-04 00:00: 0.9980
2025-06-04 06:00: 0.0025
2025-06-04 11:00: 0.9975
2025-06-04 17:00: 0.0015
2025-06-04 22:00: 0.9975
2025-06-05 04:00: 0.0025
2025-06-05 09:00: 0.9975
2025-06-05 15:00: 0.0025
2025-06-05 20:00: 0.9975
2025-06-06 02:00: 0.0025
2025-06-06 07:00: 0.9975
2025-06-06 13:00: 0.0025
2025-06-06 18:00: 0.9975
2025-06-07 00:00: 0.0025
2025-06-07 05:00: 0.9975
2025-06-07 11:00: 0.0050
2025-06-07 16:00: 0.9935
2025-06-07 22:00: 0.0050
2025-06-08 03:00: 0.9945
2025-06-08 09:00: 0.0055
2025-06-08 14:00: 0.9945
2025-06-08 20:00: 0.0055
2025-06-09 01:00: 0.9945
2025-06-09 07:00: 0.0055
2025-06-09 12:00: 0.9945
2025-06-09 18:00: 0.0105
2025-06-09 23:00: 0.9900
2025-06-10 05:00: 0.0140
2025-06-10 10:00: 0.9860
2025-06-10 16:00: 0.0135
2025-06-10 21:00: 0.9870
2025-06-11 03:00: 0.0135
2025-06-11 08:00: 0.9880
2025-06-11 14:00: 0.0170
2025-06-11 19:00: 0.9855
2025-06-12 01:00: 0.0130
2025-06-12 06:00: 0.9870
2025-06-12 12:00: 0.0130
2025-06-12 17:00: 0.9870
2025-06-12 23:00: 0.0130
2025-06-13 05:00: 0.9870
2025-06-13 11:00: 0.0150
2025-06-13 16:00: 0.9870
2025-06-13 22:00: 0.0130
2025-06-14 03:00: 0.9855
2025-06-14 09:00: 0.0150
2025-06-14 14:00: 0.9850
2025-06-14 20:00: 0.0150
2025-06-15 01:00: 0.9850
Trade Summary: Total trades: 1000000, Buy volume: 132551042.83, Sell volume: 44282234.26, Average price: 0.8414, Price range: 0.0010 - 0.9990

Output: No


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 549635
Question: Will the Conservative Liberals win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 1666125.902582
Price History:
2025-06-15 11:00: 0.0170
2025-06-15 16:00: 0.9830
2025-06-15 22:00: 0.0165
2025-06-16 03:00: 0.9835
2025-06-16 09:00: 0.0115
2025-06-16 14:00: 0.9875
2025-06-16 20:00: 0.0135
2025-06-17 01:00: 0.9865
2025-06-17 07:00: 0.0130
2025-06-17 12:00: 0.9925
2025-06-17 18:00: 0.0070
2025-06-17 23:00: 0.9940
2025-06-18 05:00: 0.0060
2025-06-18 10:00: 0.9905
2025-06-18 16:00: 0.0075
2025-06-18 21:00: 0.9925
2025-06-19 03:00: 0.0050
2025-06-19 08:00: 0.9950
2025-06-19 14:00: 0.0050
2025-06-19 19:00: 0.9950
2025-06-20 01:00: 0.0050
2025-06-20 06:00: 0.9915
2025-06-20 12:00: 0.0090
2025-06-20 17:00: 0.9935
2025-06-20 23:00: 0.0065
2025-06-21 04:00: 0.9935
2025-06-21 10:00: 0.0110
2025-06-21 15:00: 0.9840
2025-06-21 21:00: 0.0085
2025-06-22 02:00: 0.9855
2025-06-22 08:00: 0.0345
2025-06-22 13:00: 0.9730
2025-06-22 19:00: 0.0240
2025-06-23 00:00: 0.9765
2025-06-23 06:00: 0.0235
2025-06-23 11:00: 0.9715
2025-06-23 17:00: 0.0290
2025-06-23 22:00: 0.9825
2025-06-24 04:00: 0.0175
2025-06-24 09:00: 0.9555
2025-06-24 15:00: 0.0390
2025-06-24 20:00: 0.9675
2025-06-25 02:00: 0.0325
2025-06-25 07:00: 0.9675
2025-06-25 13:00: 0.0185
2025-06-25 18:00: 0.9720
2025-06-26 00:00: 0.0225
2025-06-26 05:00: 0.9760
2025-06-26 11:00: 0.0255
2025-06-26 16:00: 0.9750
Trade Summary: Total trades: 1000000, Buy volume: 132551042.83, Sell volume: 44282234.26, Average price: 0.8414, Price range: 0.0010 - 0.9990

Output: No


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 549635
Question: Will the Conservative Liberals win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 1666125.902582
Price History:
2025-06-27 02:00: 0.0260
2025-06-27 07:00: 0.9785
2025-06-27 13:00: 0.0295
2025-06-27 18:00: 0.9705
2025-06-28 00:00: 0.0285
2025-06-28 05:00: 0.9760
2025-06-28 11:00: 0.0255
2025-06-28 16:00: 0.9755
2025-06-28 22:00: 0.0250
2025-06-29 03:00: 0.9745
2025-06-29 09:00: 0.0250
2025-06-29 14:00: 0.9775
2025-06-29 20:00: 0.0230
2025-06-30 01:00: 0.9780
2025-06-30 07:00: 0.0230
2025-06-30 12:00: 0.9805
2025-06-30 18:00: 0.0245
2025-06-30 23:00: 0.9785
2025-07-01 05:00: 0.0200
2025-07-01 10:00: 0.9765
2025-07-01 16:00: 0.0230
2025-07-01 21:00: 0.9800
2025-07-02 03:00: 0.0190
2025-07-02 08:00: 0.9770
2025-07-02 14:00: 0.0210
2025-07-02 19:00: 0.9775
2025-07-03 01:00: 0.0220
2025-07-03 06:00: 0.9775
2025-07-03 12:00: 0.0245
2025-07-03 17:00: 0.9750
2025-07-03 23:00: 0.0245
2025-07-04 04:00: 0.9755
2025-07-04 10:00: 0.0270
2025-07-04 15:00: 0.9755
2025-07-04 21:00: 0.0260
2025-07-05 02:00: 0.9765
2025-07-05 08:00: 0.0240
2025-07-05 13:00: 0.9775
2025-07-05 19:00: 0.0225
2025-07-06 00:00: 0.9775
2025-07-06 06:00: 0.0270
2025-07-06 11:00: 0.9735
2025-07-06 17:00: 0.0265
2025-07-06 22:00: 0.9725
2025-07-07 04:00: 0.0280
2025-07-07 09:00: 0.9715
2025-07-07 15:00: 0.0335
2025-07-07 20:00: 0.9600
2025-07-08 02:00: 0.0405
2025-07-08 07:00: 0.9595
Trade Summary: Total trades: 1000000, Buy volume: 132551042.83, Sell volume: 44282234.26, Average price: 0.8414, Price range: 0.0010 - 0.9990

Output: No


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 549635
Question: Will the Conservative Liberals win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 1666125.902582
Price History:
2025-07-08 17:00: 0.0405
2025-07-08 22:00: 0.9605
2025-07-09 04:00: 0.0395
2025-07-09 09:00: 0.9620
2025-07-09 15:00: 0.0385
2025-07-09 20:00: 0.9675
2025-07-10 02:00: 0.0325
2025-07-10 07:00: 0.9680
2025-07-10 13:00: 0.0315
2025-07-10 18:00: 0.9675
2025-07-11 00:00: 0.0325
2025-07-11 05:00: 0.9685
2025-07-11 11:00: 0.0315
2025-07-11 16:00: 0.9675
2025-07-11 22:00: 0.0315
2025-07-12 03:00: 0.9675
2025-07-12 09:00: 0.0350
2025-07-12 14:00: 0.9660
2025-07-12 20:00: 0.0340
2025-07-13 01:00: 0.9660
2025-07-13 07:00: 0.0335
2025-07-13 12:00: 0.9675
2025-07-13 18:00: 0.0330
2025-07-13 23:00: 0.9670
2025-07-14 05:00: 0.0315
2025-07-14 10:00: 0.9675
2025-07-14 16:00: 0.0325
2025-07-14 21:00: 0.9675
2025-07-15 03:00: 0.0340
2025-07-15 08:00: 0.9685
2025-07-15 14:00: 0.0295
2025-07-15 19:00: 0.9705
2025-07-16 01:00: 0.0295
2025-07-16 06:00: 0.9705
2025-07-16 12:00: 0.0295
2025-07-16 17:00: 0.9705
2025-07-16 23:00: 0.0295
2025-07-17 04:00: 0.9705
2025-07-17 10:00: 0.0295
2025-07-17 15:00: 0.9710
2025-07-17 21:00: 0.0290
2025-07-18 02:00: 0.9710
2025-07-18 08:00: 0.0290
2025-07-18 13:00: 0.9715
2025-07-18 19:00: 0.0290
2025-07-19 00:00: 0.9710
2025-07-19 06:00: 0.0290
2025-07-19 11:00: 0.9710
2025-07-19 17:00: 0.0295
2025-07-19 22:00: 0.9705
Trade Summary: Total trades: 1000000, Buy volume: 132551042.83, Sell volume: 44282234.26, Average price: 0.8414, Price range: 0.0010 - 0.9990

Output: No


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 549635
Question: Will the Conservative Liberals win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 1666125.902582
Price History:
2025-07-20 08:00: 0.0295
2025-07-20 13:00: 0.9705
2025-07-20 19:00: 0.0295
2025-07-21 00:00: 0.9710
2025-07-21 06:00: 0.0285
2025-07-21 11:00: 0.9730
2025-07-21 17:00: 0.0260
2025-07-21 22:00: 0.9740
2025-07-22 04:00: 0.0245
2025-07-22 09:00: 0.9755
2025-07-22 15:00: 0.0240
2025-07-22 20:00: 0.9760
2025-07-23 01:00: 0.0240
2025-07-23 06:00: 0.9760
2025-07-23 12:00: 0.0235
2025-07-23 17:00: 0.9765
2025-07-23 23:00: 0.0225
2025-07-24 04:00: 0.9765
2025-07-24 10:00: 0.0235
2025-07-24 15:00: 0.9765
2025-07-24 21:00: 0.0235
2025-07-25 02:00: 0.9760
2025-07-25 08:00: 0.0255
2025-07-25 13:00: 0.9750
2025-07-25 19:00: 0.0245
2025-07-26 00:00: 0.9740
2025-07-26 06:00: 0.0240
2025-07-26 11:00: 0.9760
2025-07-26 17:00: 0.0220
2025-07-26 22:00: 0.9775
2025-07-27 04:00: 0.0245
2025-07-27 09:00: 0.9810
2025-07-27 15:00: 0.0185
2025-07-27 20:00: 0.9815
2025-07-28 02:00: 0.0200
2025-07-28 07:00: 0.9805
2025-07-28 13:00: 0.0190
2025-07-28 18:00: 0.9805
2025-07-29 00:00: 0.0195
2025-07-29 05:00: 0.9800
2025-07-29 11:00: 0.0190
2025-07-29 16:00: 0.9810
2025-07-29 22:00: 0.0155
2025-07-30 03:00: 0.9860
2025-07-30 09:00: 0.0135
2025-07-30 14:00: 0.9855
2025-07-30 20:00: 0.0105
2025-07-31 01:00: 0.9890
2025-07-31 07:00: 0.0115
2025-07-31 12:00: 0.9870
Trade Summary: Total trades: 1000000, Buy volume: 132551042.83, Sell volume: 44282234.26, Average price: 0.8414, Price range: 0.0010 - 0.9990

Output: No


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 549635
Question: Will the Conservative Liberals win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 1666125.902582
Price History:
2025-07-31 22:00: 0.0150
2025-08-01 03:00: 0.9850
2025-08-01 09:00: 0.0150
2025-08-01 14:00: 0.9855
2025-08-01 20:00: 0.0145
2025-08-02 01:00: 0.9845
2025-08-02 07:00: 0.0165
2025-08-02 12:00: 0.9840
2025-08-02 18:00: 0.0165
2025-08-02 23:00: 0.9835
2025-08-03 05:00: 0.0165
2025-08-03 10:00: 0.9835
2025-08-03 16:00: 0.0165
2025-08-03 21:00: 0.9840
2025-08-04 03:00: 0.0160
2025-08-04 08:00: 0.9845
2025-08-04 14:00: 0.0155
2025-08-04 19:00: 0.9835
2025-08-05 01:00: 0.0170
2025-08-05 06:00: 0.9830
2025-08-05 12:00: 0.0170
2025-08-05 17:00: 0.9840
2025-08-05 23:00: 0.0160
2025-08-06 04:00: 0.9835
2025-08-06 10:00: 0.0145
2025-08-06 15:00: 0.9865
2025-08-06 21:00: 0.0130
2025-08-07 02:00: 0.0105
2025-08-07 08:00: 0.0095
2025-08-07 13:00: 0.9905
2025-08-07 19:00: 0.0115
2025-08-08 00:00: 0.0125
2025-08-08 06:00: 0.0115
2025-08-08 11:00: 0.9865
2025-08-08 17:00: 0.0135
2025-08-08 22:00: 0.9900
2025-08-09 04:00: 0.0085
2025-08-09 09:00: 0.0085
2025-08-09 15:00: 0.9925
2025-08-09 20:00: 0.9915
2025-08-10 02:00: 0.9910
2025-08-10 07:00: 0.9910
2025-08-10 13:00: 0.9905
2025-08-10 18:00: 0.0100
2025-08-11 00:00: 0.9900
2025-08-11 05:00: 0.0105
2025-08-11 11:00: 0.0130
2025-08-11 16:00: 0.9880
2025-08-11 22:00: 0.0125
2025-08-12 03:00: 0.0110
Trade Summary: Total trades: 1000000, Buy volume: 132551042.83, Sell volume: 44282234.26, Average price: 0.8414, Price range: 0.0010 - 0.9990

Output: No


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 549635
Question: Will the Conservative Liberals win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 1666125.902582
Price History:
2025-08-12 13:00: 0.0125
2025-08-12 18:00: 0.0120
2025-08-13 00:00: 0.9870
2025-08-13 05:00: 0.0120
2025-08-13 11:00: 0.9885
2025-08-13 16:00: 0.9880
2025-08-13 22:00: 0.9880
2025-08-14 03:00: 0.0125
2025-08-14 09:00: 0.0115
2025-08-14 14:00: 0.0165
2025-08-14 20:00: 0.9825
2025-08-15 01:00: 0.0175
2025-08-15 07:00: 0.0170
2025-08-15 12:00: 0.9830
2025-08-15 18:00: 0.0170
2025-08-15 23:00: 0.9830
2025-08-16 05:00: 0.0170
2025-08-16 10:00: 0.9860
2025-08-16 16:00: 0.0140
2025-08-16 21:00: 0.0105
2025-08-17 03:00: 0.0105
2025-08-17 08:00: 0.9895
2025-08-17 14:00: 0.0105
2025-08-17 19:00: 0.0105
2025-08-18 01:00: 0.0125
2025-08-18 06:00: 0.0125
2025-08-18 12:00: 0.0120
2025-08-18 17:00: 0.9875
2025-08-18 23:00: 0.9900
2025-08-19 04:00: 0.9900
2025-08-19 10:00: 0.0105
2025-08-19 15:00: 0.9895
2025-08-19 21:00: 0.9895
2025-08-20 02:00: 0.0105
2025-08-20 08:00: 0.9895
2025-08-20 13:00: 0.9895
2025-08-20 19:00: 0.9860
2025-08-21 00:00: 0.0140
2025-08-21 06:00: 0.9880
2025-08-21 11:00: 0.0125
2025-08-21 17:00: 0.0130
2025-08-21 22:00: 0.0120
2025-08-22 04:00: 0.0105
2025-08-22 09:00: 0.9905
2025-08-22 15:00: 0.0120
2025-08-22 20:00: 0.9925
2025-08-23 02:00: 0.0080
2025-08-23 07:00: 0.9895
2025-08-23 13:00: 0.0090
2025-08-23 18:00: 0.9890
Trade Summary: Total trades: 1000000, Buy volume: 132551042.83, Sell volume: 44282234.26, Average price: 0.8414, Price range: 0.0010 - 0.9990

Output: No


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 549635
Question: Will the Conservative Liberals win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 1666125.902582
Price History:
2025-08-24 04:00: 0.0070
2025-08-24 09:00: 0.9890
2025-08-24 15:00: 0.0115
2025-08-24 20:00: 0.9880
2025-08-25 02:00: 0.0120
2025-08-25 07:00: 0.0130
2025-08-25 13:00: 0.0150
2025-08-25 18:00: 0.9910
2025-08-25 23:00: 0.0100
2025-08-26 04:00: 0.9910
2025-08-26 10:00: 0.9900
2025-08-26 15:00: 0.0105
2025-08-26 21:00: 0.0115
2025-08-27 02:00: 0.9885
2025-08-27 08:00: 0.9795
2025-08-27 13:00: 0.0140
2025-08-27 19:00: 0.0105
2025-08-28 00:00: 0.9895
2025-08-28 06:00: 0.0105
2025-08-28 11:00: 0.0125
2025-08-28 17:00: 0.9875
2025-08-28 22:00: 0.9875
2025-08-29 04:00: 0.9875
2025-08-29 09:00: 0.9875
2025-08-29 15:00: 0.0095
2025-08-29 20:00: 0.9905
2025-08-30 02:00: 0.0100
2025-08-30 07:00: 0.0100
2025-08-30 13:00: 0.9900
2025-08-30 18:00: 0.9895
2025-08-31 00:00: 0.0090
2025-08-31 05:00: 0.9920
2025-08-31 11:00: 0.0080
2025-08-31 16:00: 0.9910
2025-08-31 22:00: 0.0100
2025-09-01 03:00: 0.9895
2025-09-01 09:00: 0.0105
2025-09-01 14:00: 0.9895
2025-09-01 20:00: 0.9885
2025-09-02 01:00: 0.9885
2025-09-02 07:00: 0.0115
2025-09-02 12:00: 0.9885
2025-09-02 18:00: 0.0125
2025-09-02 23:00: 0.9875
2025-09-03 05:00: 0.9875
2025-09-03 10:00: 0.0125
2025-09-03 16:00: 0.0125
2025-09-03 21:00: 0.0115
2025-09-04 03:00: 0.9885
2025-09-04 08:00: 0.0085
Trade Summary: Total trades: 1000000, Buy volume: 132551042.83, Sell volume: 44282234.26, Average price: 0.8414, Price range: 0.0010 - 0.9990

Output: No


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 549635
Question: Will the Conservative Liberals win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 1666125.902582
Price History:
2025-09-04 18:00: 0.0065
2025-09-04 23:00: 0.0065
2025-09-05 05:00: 0.9935
2025-09-05 10:00: 0.0070
2025-09-05 16:00: 0.9930
2025-09-05 21:00: 0.0070
2025-09-06 03:00: 0.9930
2025-09-06 08:00: 0.0065
2025-09-06 14:00: 0.9905
2025-09-06 19:00: 0.0080
2025-09-07 01:00: 0.9915
2025-09-07 06:00: 0.0100
2025-09-07 12:00: 0.0085
2025-09-07 17:00: 0.9930
2025-09-07 23:00: 0.9930
2025-09-08 04:00: 0.9930
2025-09-08 10:00: 0.9900
2025-09-08 15:00: 0.9905
2025-09-08 21:00: 0.0090
2025-09-09 02:00: 0.0095
2025-09-09 08:00: 0.9900
2025-09-09 13:00: 0.0100
2025-09-09 19:00: 0.9900
2025-09-10 00:00: 0.0100
2025-09-10 06:00: 0.9925
2025-09-10 11:00: 0.9920
2025-09-10 17:00: 0.0075
2025-09-10 22:00: 0.9925
2025-09-11 04:00: 0.0085
2025-09-11 09:00: 0.0080
2025-09-11 15:00: 0.0080
2025-09-11 20:00: 0.0080
2025-09-12 02:00: 0.0080
2025-09-12 07:00: 0.9940
2025-09-12 13:00: 0.0070
2025-09-12 18:00: 0.9930
2025-09-13 00:00: 0.9935
2025-09-13 05:00: 0.0070
2025-09-13 11:00: 0.0075
2025-09-13 16:00: 0.9930
2025-09-13 22:00: 0.9925
2025-09-14 03:00: 0.0075
2025-09-14 09:00: 0.0075
2025-09-14 14:00: 0.9925
2025-09-14 20:00: 0.0075
2025-09-15 01:00: 0.0075
2025-09-15 07:00: 0.0080
2025-09-15 12:00: 0.9920
2025-09-15 18:00: 0.9920
2025-09-15 23:00: 0.9935
Trade Summary: Total trades: 1000000, Buy volume: 132551042.83, Sell volume: 44282234.26, Average price: 0.8414, Price range: 0.0010 - 0.9990

Output: No


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 549635
Question: Will the Conservative Liberals win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 1666125.902582
Price History:
2025-09-16 09:00: 0.9930
2025-09-16 14:00: 0.0065
2025-09-16 20:00: 0.9920
2025-09-17 01:00: 0.9935
2025-09-17 07:00: 0.0080
2025-09-17 12:00: 0.9910
2025-09-17 19:00: 0.0085
2025-09-18 00:00: 0.9930
2025-09-18 06:00: 0.0090
2025-09-18 11:00: 0.0090
2025-09-18 17:00: 0.0140
2025-09-18 22:00: 0.9845
2025-09-19 04:00: 0.9845
2025-09-19 09:00: 0.0180
2025-09-19 15:00: 0.9830
2025-09-19 20:00: 0.9840
2025-09-20 02:00: 0.9855
2025-09-20 07:00: 0.9855
2025-09-20 13:00: 0.0105
2025-09-20 18:00: 0.0105
2025-09-21 00:00: 0.0130
2025-09-21 05:00: 0.9865
2025-09-21 11:00: 0.9860
2025-09-21 16:00: 0.9860
2025-09-21 22:00: 0.9865
2025-09-22 03:00: 0.9865
2025-09-22 09:00: 0.0125
2025-09-22 14:00: 0.9880
2025-09-22 20:00: 0.0125
2025-09-23 01:00: 0.9885
2025-09-23 07:00: 0.0180
2025-09-23 12:00: 0.9835
2025-09-23 18:00: 0.9885
2025-09-23 23:00: 0.0115
2025-09-24 05:00: 0.9875
2025-09-24 10:00: 0.0140
2025-09-24 16:00: 0.0140
2025-09-24 21:00: 0.0140
2025-09-25 03:00: 0.9860
2025-09-25 08:00: 0.9875
2025-09-25 14:00: 0.0125
2025-09-25 19:00: 0.9885
2025-09-26 01:00: 0.0125
2025-09-26 06:00: 0.9885
2025-09-26 12:00: 0.9875
2025-09-26 17:00: 0.0125
2025-09-26 23:00: 0.9870
2025-09-27 04:00: 0.9875
2025-09-27 10:00: 0.9870
2025-09-27 15:00: 0.9870
Trade Summary: Total trades: 1000000, Buy volume: 132551042.83, Sell volume: 44282234.26, Average price: 0.8414, Price range: 0.0010 - 0.9990

Output: No


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 549635
Question: Will the Conservative Liberals win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 1666125.902582
Price History:
2025-09-28 01:00: 0.9875
2025-09-28 06:00: 0.0150
2025-09-28 12:00: 0.0295
2025-09-28 17:00: 0.0185
2025-09-28 23:00: 0.9825
2025-09-29 04:00: 0.0155
2025-09-29 10:00: 0.9770
2025-09-29 15:00: 0.9760
2025-09-29 21:00: 0.0145
2025-09-30 02:00: 0.9855
2025-09-30 08:00: 0.0150
2025-09-30 13:00: 0.0145
2025-09-30 19:00: 0.0125
2025-10-01 00:00: 0.0115
2025-10-01 06:00: 0.0110
2025-10-01 11:00: 0.0105
2025-10-01 17:00: 0.0110
2025-10-01 22:00: 0.0110
2025-10-02 04:00: 0.9890
2025-10-02 09:00: 0.0125
2025-10-02 15:00: 0.9875
2025-10-02 20:00: 0.0125
2025-10-03 02:00: 0.0125
2025-10-03 07:00: 0.9905
2025-10-03 13:00: 0.0100
2025-10-03 18:00: 0.0105
2025-10-04 00:00: 0.9890
2025-10-04 05:00: 0.0095
2025-10-04 11:00: 0.0090
2025-10-04 16:00: 0.9915
2025-10-04 22:00: 0.0075
2025-10-05 03:00: 0.9915
2025-10-05 09:00: 0.0095
2025-10-05 14:00: 0.0085
2025-10-05 20:00: 0.0105
2025-10-06 01:00: 0.9915
2025-10-06 07:00: 0.0085
2025-10-06 12:00: 0.9920
2025-10-06 18:00: 0.9935
2025-10-06 23:00: 0.0065
2025-10-07 05:00: 0.9935
2025-10-07 10:00: 0.9920
2025-10-07 16:00: 0.9910
2025-10-07 21:00: 0.0115
2025-10-08 03:00: 0.9885
2025-10-08 08:00: 0.0115
2025-10-08 14:00: 0.9875
2025-10-08 19:00: 0.0125
2025-10-09 01:00: 0.9885
2025-10-09 06:00: 0.9885
Trade Summary: Total trades: 1000000, Buy volume: 132551042.83, Sell volume: 44282234.26, Average price: 0.8414, Price range: 0.0010 - 0.9990

Output: No


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 549635
Question: Will the Conservative Liberals win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 1666125.902582
Price History:
2025-10-09 16:00: 0.0120
2025-10-09 21:00: 0.9880
2025-10-10 03:00: 0.0110
2025-10-10 08:00: 0.9875
2025-10-10 14:00: 0.0120
2025-10-10 19:00: 0.0105
2025-10-11 01:00: 0.9935
2025-10-11 06:00: 0.9935
2025-10-11 12:00: 0.0075
2025-10-11 17:00: 0.9895
2025-10-11 23:00: 0.9925
2025-10-12 04:00: 0.9910
2025-10-12 10:00: 0.0085
2025-10-12 15:00: 0.9905
2025-10-12 21:00: 0.9900
2025-10-13 02:00: 0.9900
2025-10-13 08:00: 0.9895
2025-10-13 13:00: 0.0105
2025-10-13 19:00: 0.9895
2025-10-14 00:00: 0.0095
2025-10-14 06:00: 0.9905
2025-10-14 11:00: 0.0100
2025-10-14 17:00: 0.0090
2025-10-14 22:00: 0.0075
2025-10-15 04:00: 0.9925
2025-10-15 09:00: 0.9910
2025-10-15 15:00: 0.0095
2025-10-15 20:00: 0.9915
2025-10-16 02:00: 0.0085
2025-10-16 07:00: 0.0085
2025-10-16 13:00: 0.9915
2025-10-16 18:00: 0.0075
2025-10-17 00:00: 0.0080
2025-10-17 05:00: 0.0065
2025-10-17 11:00: 0.9940
2025-10-17 16:00: 0.9940
2025-10-17 22:00: 0.0040
2025-10-18 03:00: 0.0060
2025-10-18 09:00: 0.9945
2025-10-18 14:00: 0.0060
2025-10-18 20:00: 0.9940
2025-10-19 01:00: 0.0060
2025-10-19 07:00: 0.9940
2025-10-19 12:00: 0.0055
2025-10-19 18:00: 0.9945
2025-10-19 23:00: 0.0055
2025-10-20 05:00: 0.9945
2025-10-20 10:00: 0.0065
2025-10-20 16:00: 0.0065
2025-10-20 21:00: 0.0060
Trade Summary: Total trades: 939060, Buy volume: 123856421.66, Sell volume: 33583622.76, Average price: 0.8400, Price range: 0.0030 - 0.9970

Output: No


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 549635
Question: Will the Conservative Liberals win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 1666125.902582
Price History:
2025-10-21 07:00: 0.9945
2025-10-21 12:00: 0.0050
2025-10-21 18:00: 0.9965
2025-10-21 23:00: 0.0040
2025-10-22 05:00: 0.9960
2025-10-22 10:00: 0.0035
2025-10-22 16:00: 0.9965
2025-10-22 21:00: 0.0035
2025-10-23 03:00: 0.9965
2025-10-23 08:00: 0.0035
2025-10-23 14:00: 0.9965
2025-10-23 19:00: 0.0035
2025-10-24 01:00: 0.9965
2025-10-24 06:00: 0.0025
2025-10-24 12:00: 0.9965
2025-10-24 17:00: 0.0030
2025-10-24 23:00: 0.9970
2025-10-25 04:00: 0.0025
2025-10-25 10:00: 0.9975
2025-10-25 15:00: 0.0030
2025-10-25 21:00: 0.9970
2025-10-26 02:00: 0.0025
2025-10-26 08:00: 0.9975
2025-10-26 13:00: 0.0025
2025-10-26 19:00: 0.9980
2025-10-27 00:00: 0.0020
2025-10-27 06:00: 0.9980
2025-10-27 11:00: 0.0020
2025-10-27 17:00: 0.9985
2025-10-27 22:00: 0.0015
2025-10-28 04:00: 0.9985
2025-10-28 09:00: 0.0015
2025-10-28 15:00: 0.9985
2025-10-28 20:00: 0.0005
2025-10-29 02:00: 0.9995
2025-10-29 11:00: 0.9990
2025-10-29 16:00: 0.0005
2025-10-29 22:00: 0.9995
2025-10-30 03:00: 0.0005
2025-10-30 09:00: 0.9995
2025-10-30 14:00: 0.0005
2025-10-30 20:00: 0.9995
2025-10-31 01:00: 0.0005
2025-10-31 07:00: 0.9995
2025-10-31 12:00: 0.0005
2025-10-31 18:00: 0.9995
2025-10-31 23:00: 0.0005
2025-11-01 05:00: 0.9995
2025-11-01 10:00: 0.0005
2025-11-01 16:00: 0.9995
Trade Summary: Total trades: 60940, Buy volume: 8694621.17, Sell volume: 10698611.50, Average price: 0.8636, Price range: 0.0010 - 0.9990

Output: No


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 549635
Question: Will the Conservative Liberals win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?
Volume: 1666125.902582
Price History:
2025-06-03 19:00: 0.0155
2025-06-04 04:00: 0.0025
2025-06-04 13:00: 0.0015
2025-06-04 22:00: 0.0025
2025-06-05 07:00: 0.0025
2025-06-05 16:00: 0.0025
2025-06-06 01:00: 0.0025
2025-06-06 10:00: 0.0025
2025-06-06 19:00: 0.0025
2025-06-07 04:00: 0.0025
2025-06-07 13:00: 0.0055
2025-06-07 22:00: 0.0050
2025-06-08 07:00: 0.0055
2025-06-08 16:00: 0.0055
2025-06-09 01:00: 0.0055
2025-06-09 10:00: 0.0055
2025-06-09 19:00: 0.0105
2025-06-10 04:00: 0.0140
2025-06-10 13:00: 0.0155
2025-06-10 22:00: 0.0125
2025-06-11 07:00: 0.0120
2025-06-11 16:00: 0.0140
2025-06-12 01:00: 0.0130
2025-06-12 10:00: 0.0135
2025-06-12 19:00: 0.0130
2025-06-13 05:00: 0.0130
2025-06-13 14:00: 0.0125
2025-06-13 23:00: 0.0120
2025-06-14 08:00: 0.0150
2025-06-14 17:00: 0.0150
Trade Summary: Total trades: 1000000, Buy volume: 132551042.83, Sell volume: 44282234.26, Average price: 0.8414, Price range: 0.0010 - 0.9990
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike, wash_trading

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 549635
Question: Will the Conservative Liberals win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?
Volume: 1666125.902582
Price History:
2025-06-15 11:00: 0.0170
2025-06-15 20:00: 0.0165
2025-06-16 05:00: 0.0165
2025-06-16 14:00: 0.0125
2025-06-16 23:00: 0.0135
2025-06-17 08:00: 0.0130
2025-06-17 17:00: 0.0070
2025-06-18 02:00: 0.0060
2025-06-18 11:00: 0.0095
2025-06-18 20:00: 0.0075
2025-06-19 05:00: 0.0050
2025-06-19 14:00: 0.0050
2025-06-19 23:00: 0.0050
2025-06-20 08:00: 0.0070
2025-06-20 17:00: 0.0065
2025-06-21 02:00: 0.0065
2025-06-21 11:00: 0.0130
2025-06-21 20:00: 0.0085
2025-06-22 05:00: 0.0465
2025-06-22 14:00: 0.0300
2025-06-22 23:00: 0.0225
2025-06-23 08:00: 0.0280
2025-06-23 17:00: 0.0290
2025-06-24 02:00: 0.0175
2025-06-24 11:00: 0.0415
2025-06-24 20:00: 0.0325
2025-06-25 05:00: 0.0325
2025-06-25 14:00: 0.0220
2025-06-25 23:00: 0.0230
2025-06-26 08:00: 0.0240
Trade Summary: Total trades: 1000000, Buy volume: 132551042.83, Sell volume: 44282234.26, Average price: 0.8414, Price range: 0.0010 - 0.9990
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike, wash_trading

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 549635
Question: Will the Conservative Liberals win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?
Volume: 1666125.902582
Price History:
2025-06-27 02:00: 0.0260
2025-06-27 11:00: 0.0275
2025-06-27 20:00: 0.0295
2025-06-28 05:00: 0.0240
2025-06-28 14:00: 0.0245
2025-06-28 23:00: 0.0245
2025-06-29 08:00: 0.0265
2025-06-29 17:00: 0.0235
2025-06-30 02:00: 0.0220
2025-06-30 11:00: 0.0195
2025-06-30 20:00: 0.0245
2025-07-01 05:00: 0.0200
2025-07-01 14:00: 0.0230
2025-07-01 23:00: 0.0200
2025-07-02 08:00: 0.0230
2025-07-02 17:00: 0.0225
2025-07-03 02:00: 0.0220
2025-07-03 11:00: 0.0250
2025-07-03 20:00: 0.0250
2025-07-04 05:00: 0.0245
2025-07-04 14:00: 0.0250
2025-07-04 23:00: 0.0225
2025-07-05 08:00: 0.0240
2025-07-05 17:00: 0.0230
2025-07-06 02:00: 0.0225
2025-07-06 11:00: 0.0265
2025-07-06 20:00: 0.0275
2025-07-07 05:00: 0.0280
2025-07-07 14:00: 0.0335
2025-07-07 23:00: 0.0405
Trade Summary: Total trades: 1000000, Buy volume: 132551042.83, Sell volume: 44282234.26, Average price: 0.8414, Price range: 0.0010 - 0.9990
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike, wash_trading

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 549635
Question: Will the Conservative Liberals win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?
Volume: 1666125.902582
Price History:
2025-07-08 17:00: 0.0405
2025-07-09 02:00: 0.0390
2025-07-09 11:00: 0.0380
2025-07-09 20:00: 0.0325
2025-07-10 05:00: 0.0315
2025-07-10 14:00: 0.0315
2025-07-10 23:00: 0.0325
2025-07-11 08:00: 0.0315
2025-07-11 17:00: 0.0325
2025-07-12 02:00: 0.0325
2025-07-12 11:00: 0.0345
2025-07-12 20:00: 0.0340
2025-07-13 05:00: 0.0340
2025-07-13 14:00: 0.0330
2025-07-13 23:00: 0.0330
2025-07-14 08:00: 0.0315
2025-07-14 17:00: 0.0325
2025-07-15 02:00: 0.0340
2025-07-15 11:00: 0.0315
2025-07-15 20:00: 0.0295
2025-07-16 05:00: 0.0295
2025-07-16 14:00: 0.0295
2025-07-16 23:00: 0.0295
2025-07-17 08:00: 0.0295
2025-07-17 17:00: 0.0290
2025-07-18 02:00: 0.0290
2025-07-18 11:00: 0.0285
2025-07-18 20:00: 0.0290
2025-07-19 05:00: 0.0290
2025-07-19 14:00: 0.0295
Trade Summary: Total trades: 1000000, Buy volume: 132551042.83, Sell volume: 44282234.26, Average price: 0.8414, Price range: 0.0010 - 0.9990
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike, wash_trading

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 549635
Question: Will the Conservative Liberals win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?
Volume: 1666125.902582
Price History:
2025-07-20 08:00: 0.0295
2025-07-20 17:00: 0.0295
2025-07-21 02:00: 0.0285
2025-07-21 11:00: 0.0270
2025-07-21 20:00: 0.0260
2025-07-22 05:00: 0.0250
2025-07-22 14:00: 0.0245
2025-07-22 23:00: 0.0240
2025-07-23 07:00: 0.0240
2025-07-23 16:00: 0.0235
2025-07-24 01:00: 0.0235
2025-07-24 10:00: 0.0235
2025-07-24 19:00: 0.0230
2025-07-25 04:00: 0.0250
2025-07-25 13:00: 0.0250
2025-07-25 22:00: 0.0255
2025-07-26 07:00: 0.0235
2025-07-26 16:00: 0.0220
2025-07-27 01:00: 0.0225
2025-07-27 10:00: 0.0190
2025-07-27 19:00: 0.0195
2025-07-28 04:00: 0.0200
2025-07-28 13:00: 0.0190
2025-07-28 22:00: 0.0200
2025-07-29 07:00: 0.0195
2025-07-29 16:00: 0.0190
2025-07-30 01:00: 0.0140
2025-07-30 10:00: 0.0135
2025-07-30 19:00: 0.0130
2025-07-31 04:00: 0.0100
Trade Summary: Total trades: 1000000, Buy volume: 132551042.83, Sell volume: 44282234.26, Average price: 0.8414, Price range: 0.0010 - 0.9990
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike, wash_trading

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 549635
Question: Will the Conservative Liberals win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?
Volume: 1666125.902582
Price History:
2025-07-31 22:00: 0.0150
2025-08-01 07:00: 0.0140
2025-08-01 16:00: 0.0140
2025-08-02 01:00: 0.0155
2025-08-02 10:00: 0.0160
2025-08-02 19:00: 0.0160
2025-08-03 04:00: 0.0165
2025-08-03 13:00: 0.0165
2025-08-03 22:00: 0.0160
2025-08-04 07:00: 0.0155
2025-08-04 16:00: 0.0155
2025-08-05 01:00: 0.0170
2025-08-05 10:00: 0.0165
2025-08-05 19:00: 0.0160
2025-08-06 04:00: 0.0165
2025-08-06 13:00: 0.0145
2025-08-06 22:00: 0.0135
2025-08-07 07:00: 0.0095
2025-08-07 16:00: 0.9905
2025-08-08 01:00: 0.9880
2025-08-08 10:00: 0.0110
2025-08-08 19:00: 0.0120
2025-08-09 04:00: 0.0085
2025-08-09 13:00: 0.0075
2025-08-09 22:00: 0.0085
2025-08-10 07:00: 0.0090
2025-08-10 16:00: 0.9890
2025-08-11 01:00: 0.0125
2025-08-11 10:00: 0.9865
2025-08-11 19:00: 0.0120
Trade Summary: Total trades: 1000000, Buy volume: 132551042.83, Sell volume: 44282234.26, Average price: 0.8414, Price range: 0.0010 - 0.9990
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike, wash_trading

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 549635
Question: Will the Conservative Liberals win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?
Volume: 1666125.902582
Price History:
2025-08-12 13:00: 0.0125
2025-08-12 22:00: 0.9880
2025-08-13 07:00: 0.9880
2025-08-13 16:00: 0.0120
2025-08-14 01:00: 0.9875
2025-08-14 10:00: 0.9890
2025-08-14 19:00: 0.9830
2025-08-15 04:00: 0.0170
2025-08-15 13:00: 0.0170
2025-08-15 22:00: 0.0170
2025-08-16 07:00: 0.9865
2025-08-16 16:00: 0.0140
2025-08-17 01:00: 0.9895
2025-08-17 10:00: 0.0125
2025-08-17 19:00: 0.9895
2025-08-18 04:00: 0.9875
2025-08-18 13:00: 0.0125
2025-08-18 22:00: 0.9900
2025-08-19 07:00: 0.0105
2025-08-19 16:00: 0.0105
2025-08-20 01:00: 0.9895
2025-08-20 10:00: 0.9895
2025-08-20 19:00: 0.9860
2025-08-21 04:00: 0.0125
2025-08-21 13:00: 0.9875
2025-08-21 22:00: 0.9880
2025-08-22 07:00: 0.0095
2025-08-22 16:00: 0.0120
2025-08-23 01:00: 0.0080
2025-08-23 10:00: 0.9895
Trade Summary: Total trades: 1000000, Buy volume: 132551042.83, Sell volume: 44282234.26, Average price: 0.8414, Price range: 0.0010 - 0.9990
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike, wash_trading

Output: Yes