Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 538726
Question: Will the next Pope require 15–19 ballots?
Volume: 22994.79183
Price History:
2025-05-07 15:00: 0.0260
2025-05-07 16:00: 0.0245
2025-05-07 17:00: 0.0235
2025-05-07 18:00: 0.0310
2025-05-07 19:00: 0.0290
2025-05-07 20:00: 0.0245
2025-05-07 21:00: 0.0245
2025-05-07 22:00: 0.0240
2025-05-07 23:00: 0.0240
2025-05-08 00:00: 0.0255
2025-05-08 01:00: 0.0255
2025-05-08 02:00: 0.0325
2025-05-08 03:00: 0.0280
2025-05-08 04:00: 0.0280
2025-05-08 05:00: 0.0190
2025-05-08 06:00: 0.0205
2025-05-08 07:00: 0.0275
2025-05-08 08:00: 0.0220
2025-05-08 09:00: 0.0220
2025-05-08 10:00: 0.0235
2025-05-08 11:00: 0.0245
2025-05-08 12:00: 0.0290
2025-05-08 13:00: 0.0015
2025-05-08 14:00: 0.0005
2025-05-08 15:00: 0.0005
2025-05-08 16:00: 0.0005
2025-05-08 17:00: 0.0005
2025-05-08 18:00: 0.0005
2025-05-08 19:00: 0.0005
2025-05-08 20:00: 0.0005
Trade Summary: No trades available
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 538727
Question: Will the next Pope require 20 or more ballots?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 36704.102922
Price History:
2025-04-21 15:00: 0.0800
2025-04-21 15:00: 0.9200
2025-04-21 16:00: 0.0500
2025-04-21 16:00: 0.9500
2025-04-21 17:00: 0.0450
2025-04-21 17:00: 0.9550
2025-04-21 18:00: 0.0400
2025-04-21 18:00: 0.9600
2025-04-21 19:00: 0.0400
2025-04-21 19:00: 0.9600
2025-04-21 20:00: 0.0400
2025-04-21 20:00: 0.9600
2025-04-21 21:00: 0.0350
2025-04-21 21:00: 0.9650
2025-04-21 22:00: 0.0345
2025-04-21 22:00: 0.9655
2025-04-21 23:00: 0.0345
2025-04-21 23:00: 0.9655
2025-04-22 00:00: 0.0345
2025-04-22 00:00: 0.9655
2025-04-22 01:00: 0.0350
2025-04-22 01:00: 0.9650
2025-04-22 02:00: 0.0345
2025-04-22 02:00: 0.9655
2025-04-22 03:00: 0.0350
2025-04-22 03:00: 0.9650
2025-04-22 04:00: 0.0345
2025-04-22 04:00: 0.9655
2025-04-22 05:00: 0.0350
2025-04-22 05:00: 0.9650
2025-04-22 06:00: 0.0345
2025-04-22 06:00: 0.9655
2025-04-22 07:00: 0.0290
2025-04-22 07:00: 0.9710
2025-04-22 08:00: 0.0055
2025-04-22 08:00: 0.9945
2025-04-22 09:00: 0.0055
2025-04-22 09:00: 0.9945
2025-04-22 10:00: 0.0055
2025-04-22 10:00: 0.9945
2025-04-22 11:00: 0.0055
2025-04-22 11:00: 0.9945
2025-04-22 12:00: 0.0055
2025-04-22 12:00: 0.9945
2025-04-22 13:00: 0.0060
2025-04-22 13:00: 0.9940
2025-04-22 14:00: 0.0060
2025-04-22 14:00: 0.9940
2025-04-22 15:00: 0.0060
2025-04-22 15:00: 0.9940
Trade Summary: No trades available

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 538727
Question: Will the next Pope require 20 or more ballots?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 36704.102922
Price History:
2025-04-22 23:00: 0.0105
2025-04-22 23:00: 0.9895
2025-04-23 00:00: 0.0100
2025-04-23 00:00: 0.9900
2025-04-23 01:00: 0.0105
2025-04-23 01:00: 0.9895
2025-04-23 02:00: 0.0225
2025-04-23 02:00: 0.9775
2025-04-23 03:00: 0.0240
2025-04-23 03:00: 0.9760
2025-04-23 04:00: 0.0240
2025-04-23 04:00: 0.9760
2025-04-23 05:00: 0.0255
2025-04-23 05:00: 0.9745
2025-04-23 06:00: 0.0255
2025-04-23 06:00: 0.9745
2025-04-23 07:00: 0.0245
2025-04-23 07:00: 0.9755
2025-04-23 08:00: 0.0260
2025-04-23 08:00: 0.9740
2025-04-23 09:00: 0.0250
2025-04-23 09:00: 0.9750
2025-04-23 10:00: 0.0265
2025-04-23 10:00: 0.9735
2025-04-23 11:00: 0.0270
2025-04-23 11:00: 0.9730
2025-04-23 12:00: 0.0265
2025-04-23 12:00: 0.9735
2025-04-23 13:00: 0.0255
2025-04-23 13:00: 0.9745
2025-04-23 14:00: 0.0355
2025-04-23 14:00: 0.9645
2025-04-23 15:00: 0.0365
2025-04-23 15:00: 0.9635
2025-04-23 16:00: 0.0360
2025-04-23 16:00: 0.9640
2025-04-23 17:00: 0.0345
2025-04-23 17:00: 0.9655
2025-04-23 18:00: 0.0345
2025-04-23 18:00: 0.9655
2025-04-23 19:00: 0.0290
2025-04-23 19:00: 0.9710
2025-04-23 20:00: 0.0295
2025-04-23 20:00: 0.9705
2025-04-23 21:00: 0.0290
2025-04-23 21:00: 0.9710
2025-04-23 22:00: 0.0325
2025-04-23 22:00: 0.9675
2025-04-23 23:00: 0.0325
2025-04-23 23:00: 0.9675
Trade Summary: No trades available

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 538727
Question: Will the next Pope require 20 or more ballots?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 36704.102922
Price History:
2025-04-24 07:00: 0.0470
2025-04-24 07:00: 0.9530
2025-04-24 08:00: 0.0385
2025-04-24 08:00: 0.9615
2025-04-24 09:00: 0.0385
2025-04-24 09:00: 0.9615
2025-04-24 10:00: 0.0385
2025-04-24 10:00: 0.9615
2025-04-24 11:00: 0.0425
2025-04-24 11:00: 0.9575
2025-04-24 12:00: 0.0425
2025-04-24 12:00: 0.9575
2025-04-24 13:00: 0.0425
2025-04-24 13:00: 0.9575
2025-04-24 14:00: 0.0500
2025-04-24 14:00: 0.9500
2025-04-24 15:00: 0.0480
2025-04-24 15:00: 0.9520
2025-04-24 16:00: 0.0465
2025-04-24 16:00: 0.9535
2025-04-24 17:00: 0.0450
2025-04-24 17:00: 0.9550
2025-04-24 18:00: 0.0445
2025-04-24 18:00: 0.9555
2025-04-24 19:00: 0.0470
2025-04-24 19:00: 0.9530
2025-04-24 20:00: 0.0340
2025-04-24 20:00: 0.9660
2025-04-24 21:00: 0.0340
2025-04-24 21:00: 0.9660
2025-04-24 22:00: 0.0340
2025-04-24 22:00: 0.9660
2025-04-24 23:00: 0.0335
2025-04-24 23:00: 0.9665
2025-04-25 00:00: 0.0335
2025-04-25 00:00: 0.9665
2025-04-25 01:00: 0.0335
2025-04-25 01:00: 0.9665
2025-04-25 02:00: 0.0335
2025-04-25 02:00: 0.9665
2025-04-25 03:00: 0.0335
2025-04-25 03:00: 0.9665
2025-04-25 04:00: 0.0315
2025-04-25 04:00: 0.9685
2025-04-25 05:00: 0.0315
2025-04-25 05:00: 0.9685
2025-04-25 06:00: 0.0315
2025-04-25 06:00: 0.9685
2025-04-25 07:00: 0.0315
2025-04-25 07:00: 0.9685
Trade Summary: No trades available

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 538727
Question: Will the next Pope require 20 or more ballots?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 36704.102922
Price History:
2025-04-25 15:00: 0.0320
2025-04-25 15:00: 0.9680
2025-04-25 16:00: 0.0320
2025-04-25 16:00: 0.9680
2025-04-25 17:00: 0.0315
2025-04-25 17:00: 0.9685
2025-04-25 18:00: 0.0320
2025-04-25 18:00: 0.9680
2025-04-25 19:00: 0.0320
2025-04-25 19:00: 0.9680
2025-04-25 20:00: 0.0320
2025-04-25 20:00: 0.9680
2025-04-25 21:00: 0.0310
2025-04-25 21:00: 0.9690
2025-04-25 22:00: 0.0320
2025-04-25 22:00: 0.9680
2025-04-25 23:00: 0.0320
2025-04-25 23:00: 0.9680
2025-04-26 00:00: 0.0320
2025-04-26 00:00: 0.9680
2025-04-26 01:00: 0.0320
2025-04-26 01:00: 0.9680
2025-04-26 02:00: 0.0320
2025-04-26 02:00: 0.9680
2025-04-26 03:00: 0.0320
2025-04-26 03:00: 0.9680
2025-04-26 04:00: 0.0310
2025-04-26 04:00: 0.9690
2025-04-26 05:00: 0.0320
2025-04-26 05:00: 0.9680
2025-04-26 06:00: 0.0325
2025-04-26 06:00: 0.9675
2025-04-26 07:00: 0.0325
2025-04-26 07:00: 0.9675
2025-04-26 08:00: 0.0315
2025-04-26 08:00: 0.9685
2025-04-26 09:00: 0.0325
2025-04-26 09:00: 0.9675
2025-04-26 10:00: 0.0325
2025-04-26 10:00: 0.9675
2025-04-26 11:00: 0.0325
2025-04-26 11:00: 0.9675
2025-04-26 12:00: 0.0315
2025-04-26 12:00: 0.9685
2025-04-26 13:00: 0.0320
2025-04-26 13:00: 0.9680
2025-04-26 14:00: 0.0320
2025-04-26 14:00: 0.9680
2025-04-26 15:00: 0.0320
2025-04-26 15:00: 0.9680
Trade Summary: No trades available

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 538727
Question: Will the next Pope require 20 or more ballots?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 36704.102922
Price History:
2025-04-26 23:00: 0.0310
2025-04-26 23:00: 0.9690
2025-04-27 00:00: 0.0305
2025-04-27 00:00: 0.9695
2025-04-27 01:00: 0.0315
2025-04-27 01:00: 0.9685
2025-04-27 02:00: 0.0305
2025-04-27 02:00: 0.9695
2025-04-27 03:00: 0.0310
2025-04-27 03:00: 0.9690
2025-04-27 04:00: 0.0320
2025-04-27 04:00: 0.9680
2025-04-27 05:00: 0.0320
2025-04-27 05:00: 0.9680
2025-04-27 06:00: 0.0320
2025-04-27 06:00: 0.9680
2025-04-27 07:00: 0.0305
2025-04-27 07:00: 0.9695
2025-04-27 08:00: 0.0310
2025-04-27 08:00: 0.9690
2025-04-27 09:00: 0.0320
2025-04-27 09:00: 0.9680
2025-04-27 10:00: 0.0315
2025-04-27 10:00: 0.9685
2025-04-27 11:00: 0.0305
2025-04-27 11:00: 0.9695
2025-04-27 12:00: 0.0310
2025-04-27 12:00: 0.9690
2025-04-27 13:00: 0.0305
2025-04-27 13:00: 0.9695
2025-04-27 14:00: 0.0300
2025-04-27 14:00: 0.9700
2025-04-27 15:00: 0.0320
2025-04-27 15:00: 0.9680
2025-04-27 16:00: 0.0310
2025-04-27 16:00: 0.9690
2025-04-27 17:00: 0.0310
2025-04-27 17:00: 0.9690
2025-04-27 18:00: 0.0310
2025-04-27 18:00: 0.9690
2025-04-27 19:00: 0.0305
2025-04-27 19:00: 0.9695
2025-04-27 20:00: 0.0305
2025-04-27 20:00: 0.9695
2025-04-27 21:00: 0.0310
2025-04-27 21:00: 0.9690
2025-04-27 22:00: 0.0305
2025-04-27 22:00: 0.9695
2025-04-27 23:00: 0.0310
2025-04-27 23:00: 0.9690
Trade Summary: No trades available

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 538727
Question: Will the next Pope require 20 or more ballots?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 36704.102922
Price History:
2025-04-28 07:00: 0.0295
2025-04-28 07:00: 0.9705
2025-04-28 08:00: 0.0300
2025-04-28 08:00: 0.9700
2025-04-28 09:00: 0.0300
2025-04-28 09:00: 0.9700
2025-04-28 10:00: 0.0300
2025-04-28 10:00: 0.9700
2025-04-28 11:00: 0.0300
2025-04-28 11:00: 0.9700
2025-04-28 12:00: 0.0280
2025-04-28 12:00: 0.9720
2025-04-28 13:00: 0.0275
2025-04-28 13:00: 0.9725
2025-04-28 14:00: 0.0275
2025-04-28 14:00: 0.9725
2025-04-28 15:00: 0.0275
2025-04-28 15:00: 0.9725
2025-04-28 16:00: 0.0275
2025-04-28 16:00: 0.9725
2025-04-28 17:00: 0.0275
2025-04-28 17:00: 0.9725
2025-04-28 18:00: 0.0275
2025-04-28 18:00: 0.9725
2025-04-28 19:00: 0.0275
2025-04-28 19:00: 0.9725
2025-04-28 20:00: 0.0275
2025-04-28 20:00: 0.9725
2025-04-28 21:00: 0.0275
2025-04-28 21:00: 0.9725
2025-04-28 22:00: 0.0275
2025-04-28 22:00: 0.9725
2025-04-28 23:00: 0.0275
2025-04-28 23:00: 0.9725
2025-04-29 00:00: 0.0275
2025-04-29 00:00: 0.9725
2025-04-29 01:00: 0.0275
2025-04-29 01:00: 0.9725
2025-04-29 02:00: 0.0275
2025-04-29 02:00: 0.9725
2025-04-29 03:00: 0.0275
2025-04-29 03:00: 0.9725
2025-04-29 04:00: 0.0275
2025-04-29 04:00: 0.9725
2025-04-29 05:00: 0.0275
2025-04-29 05:00: 0.9725
2025-04-29 06:00: 0.0275
2025-04-29 06:00: 0.9725
2025-04-29 07:00: 0.0275
2025-04-29 07:00: 0.9725
Trade Summary: No trades available

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 538727
Question: Will the next Pope require 20 or more ballots?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 36704.102922
Price History:
2025-04-29 15:00: 0.0275
2025-04-29 15:00: 0.9725
2025-04-29 16:00: 0.0275
2025-04-29 16:00: 0.9725
2025-04-29 17:00: 0.0275
2025-04-29 17:00: 0.9725
2025-04-29 18:00: 0.0275
2025-04-29 18:00: 0.9725
2025-04-29 19:00: 0.0275
2025-04-29 19:00: 0.9725
2025-04-29 20:00: 0.0275
2025-04-29 20:00: 0.9725
2025-04-29 21:00: 0.0275
2025-04-29 21:00: 0.9725
2025-04-29 22:00: 0.0275
2025-04-29 22:00: 0.9725
2025-04-29 23:00: 0.0275
2025-04-29 23:00: 0.9725
2025-04-30 00:00: 0.0275
2025-04-30 00:00: 0.9725
2025-04-30 01:00: 0.0275
2025-04-30 01:00: 0.9725
2025-04-30 02:00: 0.0275
2025-04-30 02:00: 0.9725
2025-04-30 03:00: 0.0275
2025-04-30 03:00: 0.9725
2025-04-30 04:00: 0.0275
2025-04-30 04:00: 0.9725
2025-04-30 05:00: 0.0275
2025-04-30 05:00: 0.9725
2025-04-30 06:00: 0.0275
2025-04-30 06:00: 0.9725
2025-04-30 07:00: 0.0275
2025-04-30 07:00: 0.9725
2025-04-30 08:00: 0.0275
2025-04-30 08:00: 0.9725
2025-04-30 09:00: 0.0275
2025-04-30 09:00: 0.9725
2025-04-30 10:00: 0.0275
2025-04-30 10:00: 0.9725
2025-04-30 11:00: 0.0270
2025-04-30 11:00: 0.9730
2025-04-30 12:00: 0.0270
2025-04-30 12:00: 0.9730
2025-04-30 13:00: 0.0275
2025-04-30 13:00: 0.9725
2025-04-30 14:00: 0.0275
2025-04-30 14:00: 0.9725
2025-04-30 15:00: 0.0275
2025-04-30 15:00: 0.9725
Trade Summary: No trades available

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 538727
Question: Will the next Pope require 20 or more ballots?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 36704.102922
Price History:
2025-04-30 23:00: 0.0255
2025-04-30 23:00: 0.9745
2025-05-01 00:00: 0.0275
2025-05-01 00:00: 0.9725
2025-05-01 01:00: 0.0275
2025-05-01 01:00: 0.9725
2025-05-01 02:00: 0.0275
2025-05-01 02:00: 0.9725
2025-05-01 03:00: 0.0275
2025-05-01 03:00: 0.9725
2025-05-01 04:00: 0.0275
2025-05-01 04:00: 0.9725
2025-05-01 05:00: 0.0275
2025-05-01 05:00: 0.9725
2025-05-01 06:00: 0.0275
2025-05-01 06:00: 0.9725
2025-05-01 07:00: 0.0275
2025-05-01 07:00: 0.9725
2025-05-01 08:00: 0.0275
2025-05-01 08:00: 0.9725
2025-05-01 09:00: 0.0275
2025-05-01 09:00: 0.9725
2025-05-01 10:00: 0.0255
2025-05-01 10:00: 0.9745
2025-05-01 11:00: 0.0255
2025-05-01 11:00: 0.9745
2025-05-01 12:00: 0.0255
2025-05-01 12:00: 0.9745
2025-05-01 13:00: 0.0255
2025-05-01 13:00: 0.9745
2025-05-01 14:00: 0.0275
2025-05-01 14:00: 0.9725
2025-05-01 15:00: 0.0275
2025-05-01 15:00: 0.9725
2025-05-01 16:00: 0.0275
2025-05-01 16:00: 0.9725
2025-05-01 17:00: 0.0275
2025-05-01 17:00: 0.9725
2025-05-01 18:00: 0.0275
2025-05-01 18:00: 0.9725
2025-05-01 19:00: 0.0275
2025-05-01 19:00: 0.9725
2025-05-01 20:00: 0.0275
2025-05-01 20:00: 0.9725
2025-05-01 21:00: 0.0275
2025-05-01 21:00: 0.9725
2025-05-01 22:00: 0.0275
2025-05-01 22:00: 0.9725
2025-05-01 23:00: 0.0275
2025-05-01 23:00: 0.9725
Trade Summary: No trades available

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 538727
Question: Will the next Pope require 20 or more ballots?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 36704.102922
Price History:
2025-05-02 07:00: 0.0275
2025-05-02 07:00: 0.9725
2025-05-02 08:00: 0.0275
2025-05-02 08:00: 0.9725
2025-05-02 09:00: 0.0275
2025-05-02 09:00: 0.9725
2025-05-02 10:00: 0.0265
2025-05-02 10:00: 0.9735
2025-05-02 11:00: 0.0270
2025-05-02 11:00: 0.9730
2025-05-02 12:00: 0.0265
2025-05-02 12:00: 0.9735
2025-05-02 13:00: 0.0270
2025-05-02 13:00: 0.9730
2025-05-02 14:00: 0.0265
2025-05-02 14:00: 0.9735
2025-05-02 15:00: 0.0265
2025-05-02 15:00: 0.9735
2025-05-02 16:00: 0.0270
2025-05-02 16:00: 0.9730
2025-05-02 17:00: 0.0270
2025-05-02 17:00: 0.9730
2025-05-02 18:00: 0.0270
2025-05-02 18:00: 0.9730
2025-05-02 19:00: 0.0355
2025-05-02 19:00: 0.9645
2025-05-02 20:00: 0.0345
2025-05-02 20:00: 0.9655
2025-05-02 21:00: 0.0345
2025-05-02 21:00: 0.9655
2025-05-02 22:00: 0.0345
2025-05-02 22:00: 0.9655
2025-05-02 23:00: 0.0360
2025-05-02 23:00: 0.9640
2025-05-03 00:00: 0.0360
2025-05-03 00:00: 0.9640
2025-05-03 01:00: 0.0355
2025-05-03 01:00: 0.9645
2025-05-03 02:00: 0.0370
2025-05-03 02:00: 0.9630
2025-05-03 03:00: 0.0375
2025-05-03 03:00: 0.9625
2025-05-03 04:00: 0.0370
2025-05-03 04:00: 0.9630
2025-05-03 05:00: 0.0370
2025-05-03 05:00: 0.9630
2025-05-03 06:00: 0.0375
2025-05-03 06:00: 0.9625
2025-05-03 07:00: 0.0370
2025-05-03 07:00: 0.9630
Trade Summary: No trades available

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 538727
Question: Will the next Pope require 20 or more ballots?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 36704.102922
Price History:
2025-05-03 15:00: 0.0370
2025-05-03 15:00: 0.9630
2025-05-03 16:00: 0.0370
2025-05-03 16:00: 0.9630
2025-05-03 17:00: 0.0390
2025-05-03 17:00: 0.9610
2025-05-03 18:00: 0.0390
2025-05-03 18:00: 0.9610
2025-05-03 19:00: 0.0390
2025-05-03 19:00: 0.9610
2025-05-03 20:00: 0.0380
2025-05-03 20:00: 0.9620
2025-05-03 21:00: 0.0385
2025-05-03 21:00: 0.9615
2025-05-03 22:00: 0.0390
2025-05-03 22:00: 0.9610
2025-05-03 23:00: 0.0390
2025-05-03 23:00: 0.9610
2025-05-04 00:00: 0.0385
2025-05-04 00:00: 0.9615
2025-05-04 01:00: 0.0390
2025-05-04 01:00: 0.9610
2025-05-04 02:00: 0.0390
2025-05-04 02:00: 0.9610
2025-05-04 03:00: 0.0390
2025-05-04 03:00: 0.9610
2025-05-04 04:00: 0.0390
2025-05-04 04:00: 0.9610
2025-05-04 05:00: 0.0395
2025-05-04 05:00: 0.9605
2025-05-04 06:00: 0.0395
2025-05-04 06:00: 0.9605
2025-05-04 07:00: 0.0385
2025-05-04 07:00: 0.9615
2025-05-04 08:00: 0.0390
2025-05-04 08:00: 0.9610
2025-05-04 09:00: 0.0390
2025-05-04 09:00: 0.9610
2025-05-04 10:00: 0.0390
2025-05-04 10:00: 0.9610
2025-05-04 11:00: 0.0390
2025-05-04 11:00: 0.9610
2025-05-04 12:00: 0.0390
2025-05-04 12:00: 0.9610
2025-05-04 13:00: 0.0390
2025-05-04 13:00: 0.9610
2025-05-04 14:00: 0.0390
2025-05-04 14:00: 0.9610
2025-05-04 15:00: 0.0390
2025-05-04 15:00: 0.9610
Trade Summary: No trades available

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 538727
Question: Will the next Pope require 20 or more ballots?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 36704.102922
Price History:
2025-05-04 23:00: 0.0350
2025-05-04 23:00: 0.9650
2025-05-05 00:00: 0.0350
2025-05-05 00:00: 0.9650
2025-05-05 01:00: 0.0360
2025-05-05 01:00: 0.9640
2025-05-05 02:00: 0.0345
2025-05-05 02:00: 0.9655
2025-05-05 03:00: 0.0340
2025-05-05 03:00: 0.9660
2025-05-05 04:00: 0.0360
2025-05-05 04:00: 0.9640
2025-05-05 05:00: 0.0355
2025-05-05 05:00: 0.9645
2025-05-05 06:00: 0.0350
2025-05-05 06:00: 0.9650
2025-05-05 07:00: 0.0380
2025-05-05 07:00: 0.9620
2025-05-05 08:00: 0.0375
2025-05-05 08:00: 0.9625
2025-05-05 09:00: 0.0370
2025-05-05 09:00: 0.9630
2025-05-05 10:00: 0.0380
2025-05-05 10:00: 0.9620
2025-05-05 11:00: 0.0375
2025-05-05 11:00: 0.9625
2025-05-05 12:00: 0.0365
2025-05-05 12:00: 0.9635
2025-05-05 13:00: 0.0360
2025-05-05 13:00: 0.9640
2025-05-05 14:00: 0.0355
2025-05-05 14:00: 0.9645
2025-05-05 15:00: 0.0355
2025-05-05 15:00: 0.9645
2025-05-05 16:00: 0.0335
2025-05-05 16:00: 0.9665
2025-05-05 17:00: 0.0330
2025-05-05 17:00: 0.9670
2025-05-05 18:00: 0.0320
2025-05-05 18:00: 0.9680
2025-05-05 19:00: 0.0325
2025-05-05 19:00: 0.9675
2025-05-05 20:00: 0.0320
2025-05-05 20:00: 0.9680
2025-05-05 21:00: 0.0320
2025-05-05 21:00: 0.9680
2025-05-05 22:00: 0.0310
2025-05-05 22:00: 0.9690
2025-05-05 23:00: 0.0320
2025-05-05 23:00: 0.9680
Trade Summary: No trades available

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 538727
Question: Will the next Pope require 20 or more ballots?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 36704.102922
Price History:
2025-05-06 07:00: 0.0320
2025-05-06 07:00: 0.9680
2025-05-06 08:00: 0.0320
2025-05-06 08:00: 0.9680
2025-05-06 09:00: 0.0320
2025-05-06 09:00: 0.9680
2025-05-06 10:00: 0.0320
2025-05-06 10:00: 0.9680
2025-05-06 11:00: 0.0320
2025-05-06 11:00: 0.9680
2025-05-06 12:00: 0.0380
2025-05-06 12:00: 0.9620
2025-05-06 13:00: 0.0355
2025-05-06 13:00: 0.9645
2025-05-06 14:00: 0.0355
2025-05-06 14:00: 0.9645
2025-05-06 15:00: 0.0350
2025-05-06 15:00: 0.9650
2025-05-06 16:00: 0.0355
2025-05-06 16:00: 0.9645
2025-05-06 17:00: 0.0355
2025-05-06 17:00: 0.9645
2025-05-06 18:00: 0.0355
2025-05-06 18:00: 0.9645
2025-05-06 19:00: 0.0360
2025-05-06 19:00: 0.9640
2025-05-06 20:00: 0.0355
2025-05-06 20:00: 0.9645
2025-05-06 21:00: 0.0375
2025-05-06 21:00: 0.9625
2025-05-06 22:00: 0.0365
2025-05-06 22:00: 0.9635
2025-05-06 23:00: 0.0360
2025-05-06 23:00: 0.9640
2025-05-07 00:00: 0.0355
2025-05-07 00:00: 0.9645
2025-05-07 01:00: 0.0360
2025-05-07 01:00: 0.9640
2025-05-07 02:00: 0.0360
2025-05-07 02:00: 0.9640
2025-05-07 03:00: 0.0360
2025-05-07 03:00: 0.9640
2025-05-07 04:00: 0.0335
2025-05-07 04:00: 0.9665
2025-05-07 05:00: 0.0365
2025-05-07 05:00: 0.9635
2025-05-07 06:00: 0.0360
2025-05-07 06:00: 0.9640
2025-05-07 07:00: 0.0345
2025-05-07 07:00: 0.9655
Trade Summary: No trades available

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 538727
Question: Will the next Pope require 20 or more ballots?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 36704.102922
Price History:
2025-05-07 15:00: 0.0270
2025-05-07 15:00: 0.9730
2025-05-07 16:00: 0.0270
2025-05-07 16:00: 0.9730
2025-05-07 17:00: 0.0345
2025-05-07 17:00: 0.9655
2025-05-07 18:00: 0.0375
2025-05-07 18:00: 0.9625
2025-05-07 19:00: 0.0370
2025-05-07 19:00: 0.9630
2025-05-07 20:00: 0.0370
2025-05-07 20:00: 0.9630
2025-05-07 21:00: 0.0375
2025-05-07 21:00: 0.9625
2025-05-07 22:00: 0.0580
2025-05-07 22:00: 0.9420
2025-05-07 23:00: 0.0550
2025-05-07 23:00: 0.9450
2025-05-08 00:00: 0.0410
2025-05-08 00:00: 0.9590
2025-05-08 01:00: 0.0335
2025-05-08 01:00: 0.9665
2025-05-08 02:00: 0.0235
2025-05-08 02:00: 0.9765
2025-05-08 03:00: 0.0350
2025-05-08 03:00: 0.9650
2025-05-08 04:00: 0.0305
2025-05-08 04:00: 0.9695
2025-05-08 05:00: 0.0240
2025-05-08 05:00: 0.9760
2025-05-08 06:00: 0.0265
2025-05-08 06:00: 0.9735
2025-05-08 07:00: 0.0260
2025-05-08 07:00: 0.9740
2025-05-08 08:00: 0.0260
2025-05-08 08:00: 0.9740
2025-05-08 09:00: 0.0290
2025-05-08 09:00: 0.9710
2025-05-08 10:00: 0.0305
2025-05-08 10:00: 0.9695
2025-05-08 11:00: 0.0330
2025-05-08 11:00: 0.9670
2025-05-08 12:00: 0.0370
2025-05-08 12:00: 0.9630
2025-05-08 13:00: 0.0080
2025-05-08 13:00: 0.9920
2025-05-08 14:00: 0.0005
2025-05-08 14:00: 0.9995
2025-05-08 15:00: 0.0005
2025-05-08 15:00: 0.9995
Trade Summary: No trades available

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 538727
Question: Will the next Pope require 20 or more ballots?
Volume: 36704.102922
Price History:
2025-04-21 15:00: 0.0800
2025-04-21 16:00: 0.0500
2025-04-21 17:00: 0.0450
2025-04-21 18:00: 0.0400
2025-04-21 19:00: 0.0400
2025-04-21 20:00: 0.0400
2025-04-21 21:00: 0.0350
2025-04-21 22:00: 0.0345
2025-04-21 23:00: 0.0345
2025-04-22 00:00: 0.0345
2025-04-22 01:00: 0.0350
2025-04-22 02:00: 0.0345
2025-04-22 03:00: 0.0350
2025-04-22 04:00: 0.0345
2025-04-22 05:00: 0.0350
2025-04-22 06:00: 0.0345
2025-04-22 07:00: 0.0290
2025-04-22 08:00: 0.0055
2025-04-22 09:00: 0.0055
2025-04-22 10:00: 0.0055
2025-04-22 11:00: 0.0055
2025-04-22 12:00: 0.0055
2025-04-22 13:00: 0.0060
2025-04-22 14:00: 0.0060
2025-04-22 15:00: 0.0060
2025-04-22 16:00: 0.0105
2025-04-22 17:00: 0.0100
2025-04-22 18:00: 0.0105
2025-04-22 19:00: 0.0105
2025-04-22 20:00: 0.0110
Trade Summary: No trades available
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 538727
Question: Will the next Pope require 20 or more ballots?
Volume: 36704.102922
Price History:
2025-04-22 23:00: 0.0105
2025-04-23 00:00: 0.0100
2025-04-23 01:00: 0.0105
2025-04-23 02:00: 0.0225
2025-04-23 03:00: 0.0240
2025-04-23 04:00: 0.0240
2025-04-23 05:00: 0.0255
2025-04-23 06:00: 0.0255
2025-04-23 07:00: 0.0245
2025-04-23 08:00: 0.0260
2025-04-23 09:00: 0.0250
2025-04-23 10:00: 0.0265
2025-04-23 11:00: 0.0270
2025-04-23 12:00: 0.0265
2025-04-23 13:00: 0.0255
2025-04-23 14:00: 0.0355
2025-04-23 15:00: 0.0365
2025-04-23 16:00: 0.0360
2025-04-23 17:00: 0.0345
2025-04-23 18:00: 0.0345
2025-04-23 19:00: 0.0290
2025-04-23 20:00: 0.0295
2025-04-23 21:00: 0.0290
2025-04-23 22:00: 0.0325
2025-04-23 23:00: 0.0325
2025-04-24 00:00: 0.0325
2025-04-24 01:00: 0.0450
2025-04-24 02:00: 0.0340
2025-04-24 03:00: 0.0340
2025-04-24 04:00: 0.0345
Trade Summary: No trades available
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 538727
Question: Will the next Pope require 20 or more ballots?
Volume: 36704.102922
Price History:
2025-04-24 07:00: 0.0470
2025-04-24 08:00: 0.0385
2025-04-24 09:00: 0.0385
2025-04-24 10:00: 0.0385
2025-04-24 11:00: 0.0425
2025-04-24 12:00: 0.0425
2025-04-24 13:00: 0.0425
2025-04-24 14:00: 0.0500
2025-04-24 15:00: 0.0480
2025-04-24 16:00: 0.0465
2025-04-24 17:00: 0.0450
2025-04-24 18:00: 0.0445
2025-04-24 19:00: 0.0470
2025-04-24 20:00: 0.0340
2025-04-24 21:00: 0.0340
2025-04-24 22:00: 0.0340
2025-04-24 23:00: 0.0335
2025-04-25 00:00: 0.0335
2025-04-25 01:00: 0.0335
2025-04-25 02:00: 0.0335
2025-04-25 03:00: 0.0335
2025-04-25 04:00: 0.0315
2025-04-25 05:00: 0.0315
2025-04-25 06:00: 0.0315
2025-04-25 07:00: 0.0315
2025-04-25 08:00: 0.0325
2025-04-25 09:00: 0.0325
2025-04-25 10:00: 0.0365
2025-04-25 11:00: 0.0365
2025-04-25 12:00: 0.0280
Trade Summary: No trades available
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 538727
Question: Will the next Pope require 20 or more ballots?
Volume: 36704.102922
Price History:
2025-04-25 15:00: 0.0320
2025-04-25 16:00: 0.0320
2025-04-25 17:00: 0.0315
2025-04-25 18:00: 0.0320
2025-04-25 19:00: 0.0320
2025-04-25 20:00: 0.0320
2025-04-25 21:00: 0.0310
2025-04-25 22:00: 0.0320
2025-04-25 23:00: 0.0320
2025-04-26 00:00: 0.0320
2025-04-26 01:00: 0.0320
2025-04-26 02:00: 0.0320
2025-04-26 03:00: 0.0320
2025-04-26 04:00: 0.0310
2025-04-26 05:00: 0.0320
2025-04-26 06:00: 0.0325
2025-04-26 07:00: 0.0325
2025-04-26 08:00: 0.0315
2025-04-26 09:00: 0.0325
2025-04-26 10:00: 0.0325
2025-04-26 11:00: 0.0325
2025-04-26 12:00: 0.0315
2025-04-26 13:00: 0.0320
2025-04-26 14:00: 0.0320
2025-04-26 15:00: 0.0320
2025-04-26 16:00: 0.0320
2025-04-26 17:00: 0.0315
2025-04-26 18:00: 0.0315
2025-04-26 19:00: 0.0315
2025-04-26 20:00: 0.0315
Trade Summary: No trades available
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 538727
Question: Will the next Pope require 20 or more ballots?
Volume: 36704.102922
Price History:
2025-04-26 23:00: 0.0310
2025-04-27 00:00: 0.0305
2025-04-27 01:00: 0.0315
2025-04-27 02:00: 0.0305
2025-04-27 03:00: 0.0310
2025-04-27 04:00: 0.0320
2025-04-27 05:00: 0.0320
2025-04-27 06:00: 0.0320
2025-04-27 07:00: 0.0305
2025-04-27 08:00: 0.0310
2025-04-27 09:00: 0.0320
2025-04-27 10:00: 0.0315
2025-04-27 11:00: 0.0305
2025-04-27 12:00: 0.0310
2025-04-27 13:00: 0.0305
2025-04-27 14:00: 0.0300
2025-04-27 15:00: 0.0320
2025-04-27 16:00: 0.0310
2025-04-27 17:00: 0.0310
2025-04-27 18:00: 0.0310
2025-04-27 19:00: 0.0305
2025-04-27 20:00: 0.0305
2025-04-27 21:00: 0.0310
2025-04-27 22:00: 0.0305
2025-04-27 23:00: 0.0310
2025-04-28 00:00: 0.0310
2025-04-28 01:00: 0.0300
2025-04-28 02:00: 0.0310
2025-04-28 03:00: 0.0310
2025-04-28 04:00: 0.0305
Trade Summary: No trades available
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 538727
Question: Will the next Pope require 20 or more ballots?
Volume: 36704.102922
Price History:
2025-04-28 07:00: 0.0295
2025-04-28 08:00: 0.0300
2025-04-28 09:00: 0.0300
2025-04-28 10:00: 0.0300
2025-04-28 11:00: 0.0300
2025-04-28 12:00: 0.0280
2025-04-28 13:00: 0.0275
2025-04-28 14:00: 0.0275
2025-04-28 15:00: 0.0275
2025-04-28 16:00: 0.0275
2025-04-28 17:00: 0.0275
2025-04-28 18:00: 0.0275
2025-04-28 19:00: 0.0275
2025-04-28 20:00: 0.0275
2025-04-28 21:00: 0.0275
2025-04-28 22:00: 0.0275
2025-04-28 23:00: 0.0275
2025-04-29 00:00: 0.0275
2025-04-29 01:00: 0.0275
2025-04-29 02:00: 0.0275
2025-04-29 03:00: 0.0275
2025-04-29 04:00: 0.0275
2025-04-29 05:00: 0.0275
2025-04-29 06:00: 0.0275
2025-04-29 07:00: 0.0275
2025-04-29 08:00: 0.0275
2025-04-29 09:00: 0.0275
2025-04-29 10:00: 0.0275
2025-04-29 11:00: 0.0275
2025-04-29 12:00: 0.0275
Trade Summary: No trades available
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 538727
Question: Will the next Pope require 20 or more ballots?
Volume: 36704.102922
Price History:
2025-04-29 15:00: 0.0275
2025-04-29 16:00: 0.0275
2025-04-29 17:00: 0.0275
2025-04-29 18:00: 0.0275
2025-04-29 19:00: 0.0275
2025-04-29 20:00: 0.0275
2025-04-29 21:00: 0.0275
2025-04-29 22:00: 0.0275
2025-04-29 23:00: 0.0275
2025-04-30 00:00: 0.0275
2025-04-30 01:00: 0.0275
2025-04-30 02:00: 0.0275
2025-04-30 03:00: 0.0275
2025-04-30 04:00: 0.0275
2025-04-30 05:00: 0.0275
2025-04-30 06:00: 0.0275
2025-04-30 07:00: 0.0275
2025-04-30 08:00: 0.0275
2025-04-30 09:00: 0.0275
2025-04-30 10:00: 0.0275
2025-04-30 11:00: 0.0270
2025-04-30 12:00: 0.0270
2025-04-30 13:00: 0.0275
2025-04-30 14:00: 0.0275
2025-04-30 15:00: 0.0275
2025-04-30 16:00: 0.0275
2025-04-30 17:00: 0.0275
2025-04-30 18:00: 0.0280
2025-04-30 19:00: 0.0280
2025-04-30 20:00: 0.0280
Trade Summary: No trades available
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 538727
Question: Will the next Pope require 20 or more ballots?
Volume: 36704.102922
Price History:
2025-04-30 23:00: 0.0255
2025-05-01 00:00: 0.0275
2025-05-01 01:00: 0.0275
2025-05-01 02:00: 0.0275
2025-05-01 03:00: 0.0275
2025-05-01 04:00: 0.0275
2025-05-01 05:00: 0.0275
2025-05-01 06:00: 0.0275
2025-05-01 07:00: 0.0275
2025-05-01 08:00: 0.0275
2025-05-01 09:00: 0.0275
2025-05-01 10:00: 0.0255
2025-05-01 11:00: 0.0255
2025-05-01 12:00: 0.0255
2025-05-01 13:00: 0.0255
2025-05-01 14:00: 0.0275
2025-05-01 15:00: 0.0275
2025-05-01 16:00: 0.0275
2025-05-01 17:00: 0.0275
2025-05-01 18:00: 0.0275
2025-05-01 19:00: 0.0275
2025-05-01 20:00: 0.0275
2025-05-01 21:00: 0.0275
2025-05-01 22:00: 0.0275
2025-05-01 23:00: 0.0275
2025-05-02 00:00: 0.0275
2025-05-02 01:00: 0.0275
2025-05-02 02:00: 0.0275
2025-05-02 03:00: 0.0275
2025-05-02 04:00: 0.0275
Trade Summary: No trades available
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 538727
Question: Will the next Pope require 20 or more ballots?
Volume: 36704.102922
Price History:
2025-05-02 07:00: 0.0275
2025-05-02 08:00: 0.0275
2025-05-02 09:00: 0.0275
2025-05-02 10:00: 0.0265
2025-05-02 11:00: 0.0270
2025-05-02 12:00: 0.0265
2025-05-02 13:00: 0.0270
2025-05-02 14:00: 0.0265
2025-05-02 15:00: 0.0265
2025-05-02 16:00: 0.0270
2025-05-02 17:00: 0.0270
2025-05-02 18:00: 0.0270
2025-05-02 19:00: 0.0355
2025-05-02 20:00: 0.0345
2025-05-02 21:00: 0.0345
2025-05-02 22:00: 0.0345
2025-05-02 23:00: 0.0360
2025-05-03 00:00: 0.0360
2025-05-03 01:00: 0.0355
2025-05-03 02:00: 0.0370
2025-05-03 03:00: 0.0375
2025-05-03 04:00: 0.0370
2025-05-03 05:00: 0.0370
2025-05-03 06:00: 0.0375
2025-05-03 07:00: 0.0370
2025-05-03 08:00: 0.0370
2025-05-03 09:00: 0.0370
2025-05-03 10:00: 0.0370
2025-05-03 11:00: 0.0375
2025-05-03 12:00: 0.0375
Trade Summary: No trades available
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 538727
Question: Will the next Pope require 20 or more ballots?
Volume: 36704.102922
Price History:
2025-05-03 15:00: 0.0370
2025-05-03 16:00: 0.0370
2025-05-03 17:00: 0.0390
2025-05-03 18:00: 0.0390
2025-05-03 19:00: 0.0390
2025-05-03 20:00: 0.0380
2025-05-03 21:00: 0.0385
2025-05-03 22:00: 0.0390
2025-05-03 23:00: 0.0390
2025-05-04 00:00: 0.0385
2025-05-04 01:00: 0.0390
2025-05-04 02:00: 0.0390
2025-05-04 03:00: 0.0390
2025-05-04 04:00: 0.0390
2025-05-04 05:00: 0.0395
2025-05-04 06:00: 0.0395
2025-05-04 07:00: 0.0385
2025-05-04 08:00: 0.0390
2025-05-04 09:00: 0.0390
2025-05-04 10:00: 0.0390
2025-05-04 11:00: 0.0390
2025-05-04 12:00: 0.0390
2025-05-04 13:00: 0.0390
2025-05-04 14:00: 0.0390
2025-05-04 15:00: 0.0390
2025-05-04 16:00: 0.0390
2025-05-04 17:00: 0.0380
2025-05-04 18:00: 0.0375
2025-05-04 19:00: 0.0375
2025-05-04 20:00: 0.0380
Trade Summary: No trades available
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 538727
Question: Will the next Pope require 20 or more ballots?
Volume: 36704.102922
Price History:
2025-05-04 23:00: 0.0350
2025-05-05 00:00: 0.0350
2025-05-05 01:00: 0.0360
2025-05-05 02:00: 0.0345
2025-05-05 03:00: 0.0340
2025-05-05 04:00: 0.0360
2025-05-05 05:00: 0.0355
2025-05-05 06:00: 0.0350
2025-05-05 07:00: 0.0380
2025-05-05 08:00: 0.0375
2025-05-05 09:00: 0.0370
2025-05-05 10:00: 0.0380
2025-05-05 11:00: 0.0375
2025-05-05 12:00: 0.0365
2025-05-05 13:00: 0.0360
2025-05-05 14:00: 0.0355
2025-05-05 15:00: 0.0355
2025-05-05 16:00: 0.0335
2025-05-05 17:00: 0.0330
2025-05-05 18:00: 0.0320
2025-05-05 19:00: 0.0325
2025-05-05 20:00: 0.0320
2025-05-05 21:00: 0.0320
2025-05-05 22:00: 0.0310
2025-05-05 23:00: 0.0320
2025-05-06 00:00: 0.0320
2025-05-06 01:00: 0.0320
2025-05-06 02:00: 0.0320
2025-05-06 03:00: 0.0320
2025-05-06 04:00: 0.0320
Trade Summary: No trades available
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 538727
Question: Will the next Pope require 20 or more ballots?
Volume: 36704.102922
Price History:
2025-05-06 07:00: 0.0320
2025-05-06 08:00: 0.0320
2025-05-06 09:00: 0.0320
2025-05-06 10:00: 0.0320
2025-05-06 11:00: 0.0320
2025-05-06 12:00: 0.0380
2025-05-06 13:00: 0.0355
2025-05-06 14:00: 0.0355
2025-05-06 15:00: 0.0350
2025-05-06 16:00: 0.0355
2025-05-06 17:00: 0.0355
2025-05-06 18:00: 0.0355
2025-05-06 19:00: 0.0360
2025-05-06 20:00: 0.0355
2025-05-06 21:00: 0.0375
2025-05-06 22:00: 0.0365
2025-05-06 23:00: 0.0360
2025-05-07 00:00: 0.0355
2025-05-07 01:00: 0.0360
2025-05-07 02:00: 0.0360
2025-05-07 03:00: 0.0360
2025-05-07 04:00: 0.0335
2025-05-07 05:00: 0.0365
2025-05-07 06:00: 0.0360
2025-05-07 07:00: 0.0345
2025-05-07 08:00: 0.0350
2025-05-07 09:00: 0.0360
2025-05-07 10:00: 0.0395
2025-05-07 11:00: 0.0405
2025-05-07 12:00: 0.0390
Trade Summary: No trades available
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 538727
Question: Will the next Pope require 20 or more ballots?
Volume: 36704.102922
Price History:
2025-05-07 15:00: 0.0270
2025-05-07 16:00: 0.0270
2025-05-07 17:00: 0.0345
2025-05-07 18:00: 0.0375
2025-05-07 19:00: 0.0370
2025-05-07 20:00: 0.0370
2025-05-07 21:00: 0.0375
2025-05-07 22:00: 0.0580
2025-05-07 23:00: 0.0550
2025-05-08 00:00: 0.0410
2025-05-08 01:00: 0.0335
2025-05-08 02:00: 0.0235
2025-05-08 03:00: 0.0350
2025-05-08 04:00: 0.0305
2025-05-08 05:00: 0.0240
2025-05-08 06:00: 0.0265
2025-05-08 07:00: 0.0260
2025-05-08 08:00: 0.0260
2025-05-08 09:00: 0.0290
2025-05-08 10:00: 0.0305
2025-05-08 11:00: 0.0330
2025-05-08 12:00: 0.0370
2025-05-08 13:00: 0.0080
2025-05-08 14:00: 0.0005
2025-05-08 15:00: 0.0005
2025-05-08 16:00: 0.0005
2025-05-08 17:00: 0.0005
2025-05-08 18:00: 0.0005
2025-05-08 19:00: 0.0005
2025-05-08 20:00: 0.0005
Trade Summary: No trades available
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 588680
Question: Will Apple's iPhone 17 Pro cost more than $1000 when it launches?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 294697.099345
Price History:
2025-09-05 12:00: 0.2500
2025-09-05 12:00: 0.7500
2025-09-05 13:00: 0.2400
2025-09-05 13:00: 0.7600
2025-09-05 14:00: 0.2200
2025-09-05 14:00: 0.7800
2025-09-05 15:00: 0.7750
2025-09-05 15:00: 0.2250
2025-09-05 16:00: 0.1700
2025-09-05 16:00: 0.8300
2025-09-05 17:00: 0.1650
2025-09-05 17:00: 0.8350
2025-09-05 18:00: 0.1750
2025-09-05 18:00: 0.8250
2025-09-05 19:00: 0.1200
2025-09-05 19:00: 0.8800
2025-09-05 20:00: 0.1200
2025-09-05 20:00: 0.8800
2025-09-05 21:00: 0.1150
2025-09-05 21:00: 0.8850
2025-09-05 22:00: 0.1150
2025-09-05 22:00: 0.8850
2025-09-05 23:00: 0.1150
2025-09-05 23:00: 0.8850
2025-09-06 00:00: 0.8850
2025-09-06 00:00: 0.1150
2025-09-06 01:00: 0.1150
2025-09-06 01:00: 0.8850
2025-09-06 02:00: 0.1150
Trade Summary: Total trades: 5, Buy volume: 243.99, Sell volume: 0.00, Average price: 0.9560, Price range: 0.9400 - 0.9800

Output: No


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 588680
Question: Will Apple's iPhone 17 Pro cost more than $1000 when it launches?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 294697.099345
Price History:
2025-09-06 02:00: 0.8850
2025-09-06 03:00: 0.8850
2025-09-06 03:00: 0.1150
2025-09-06 04:00: 0.1150
2025-09-06 04:00: 0.8850
2025-09-06 05:00: 0.9100
2025-09-06 05:00: 0.0900
2025-09-06 06:00: 0.9150
2025-09-06 06:00: 0.0850
2025-09-06 07:00: 0.0850
2025-09-06 07:00: 0.9150
2025-09-06 08:00: 0.0850
2025-09-06 08:00: 0.9150
2025-09-06 09:00: 0.0700
2025-09-06 09:00: 0.9300
2025-09-06 10:00: 0.9300
2025-09-06 10:00: 0.0700
2025-09-06 11:00: 0.0700
2025-09-06 11:00: 0.9300
2025-09-06 12:00: 0.9300
2025-09-06 12:00: 0.0700
2025-09-06 13:00: 0.0500
2025-09-06 13:00: 0.9500
2025-09-06 14:00: 0.0500
2025-09-06 14:00: 0.9500
2025-09-06 15:00: 0.9500
2025-09-06 15:00: 0.0500
2025-09-06 16:00: 0.9400
2025-09-06 16:00: 0.0600
Trade Summary: Total trades: 12, Buy volume: 631.88, Sell volume: 2.08, Average price: 0.7244, Price range: 0.0600 - 0.9400

Output: No


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 588680
Question: Will Apple's iPhone 17 Pro cost more than $1000 when it launches?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 294697.099345
Price History:
2025-09-06 17:00: 0.9400
2025-09-06 17:00: 0.0600
2025-09-06 18:00: 0.9350
2025-09-06 18:00: 0.0650
2025-09-06 19:00: 0.0750
2025-09-06 19:00: 0.9250
2025-09-06 20:00: 0.0750
2025-09-06 20:00: 0.9250
2025-09-06 21:00: 0.9250
2025-09-06 21:00: 0.0750
2025-09-06 22:00: 0.0700
2025-09-06 22:00: 0.9300
2025-09-06 23:00: 0.9300
2025-09-06 23:00: 0.0700
2025-09-07 00:00: 0.9250
2025-09-07 00:00: 0.0750
2025-09-07 01:00: 0.9250
2025-09-07 01:00: 0.0750
2025-09-07 02:00: 0.0750
2025-09-07 02:00: 0.9250
2025-09-07 03:00: 0.9250
2025-09-07 03:00: 0.0750
2025-09-07 04:00: 0.9250
2025-09-07 04:00: 0.0750
2025-09-07 05:00: 0.9250
2025-09-07 05:00: 0.0750
2025-09-07 06:00: 0.9250
2025-09-07 06:00: 0.0750
2025-09-07 07:00: 0.9250
Trade Summary: Total trades: 2, Buy volume: 27.27, Sell volume: 0.00, Average price: 0.1100, Price range: 0.1100 - 0.1100

Output: No


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 588680
Question: Will Apple's iPhone 17 Pro cost more than $1000 when it launches?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 294697.099345
Price History:
2025-09-07 07:00: 0.0750
2025-09-07 08:00: 0.9250
2025-09-07 08:00: 0.0750
2025-09-07 09:00: 0.9250
2025-09-07 09:00: 0.0750
2025-09-07 10:00: 0.5000
2025-09-07 10:00: 0.5000
2025-09-07 11:00: 0.4900
2025-09-07 11:00: 0.5100
2025-09-07 12:00: 0.0900
2025-09-07 12:00: 0.9100
2025-09-07 13:00: 0.9100
2025-09-07 13:00: 0.0900
2025-09-07 14:00: 0.8900
2025-09-07 14:00: 0.1100
2025-09-07 15:00: 0.1100
2025-09-07 15:00: 0.8900
2025-09-07 16:00: 0.1150
2025-09-07 16:00: 0.8850
2025-09-07 17:00: 0.1100
2025-09-07 17:00: 0.8900
2025-09-07 18:00: 0.7100
2025-09-07 18:00: 0.2900
2025-09-07 19:00: 0.2100
2025-09-07 19:00: 0.7900
2025-09-07 20:00: 0.8750
2025-09-07 20:00: 0.1250
2025-09-07 21:00: 0.1250
2025-09-07 21:00: 0.8750
Trade Summary: Total trades: 11, Buy volume: 966.59, Sell volume: 94.40, Average price: 0.3369, Price range: 0.0324 - 0.9700

Output: No


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 588680
Question: Will Apple's iPhone 17 Pro cost more than $1000 when it launches?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 294697.099345
Price History:
2025-09-07 22:00: 0.1850
2025-09-07 22:00: 0.8150
2025-09-07 23:00: 0.8200
2025-09-07 23:00: 0.1800
2025-09-08 00:00: 0.1950
2025-09-08 00:00: 0.8050
2025-09-08 01:00: 0.1950
2025-09-08 01:00: 0.8050
2025-09-08 02:00: 0.1950
2025-09-08 02:00: 0.8050
2025-09-08 03:00: 0.2850
2025-09-08 03:00: 0.7150
2025-09-08 04:00: 0.6050
2025-09-08 04:00: 0.3950
2025-09-08 05:00: 0.4650
2025-09-08 05:00: 0.5350
2025-09-08 06:00: 0.6850
2025-09-08 06:00: 0.3150
2025-09-08 07:00: 0.2200
2025-09-08 07:00: 0.7800
2025-09-08 08:00: 0.2000
2025-09-08 08:00: 0.8000
2025-09-08 09:00: 0.1400
2025-09-08 09:00: 0.8600
2025-09-08 10:00: 0.3600
2025-09-08 10:00: 0.6400
2025-09-08 11:00: 0.4300
2025-09-08 11:00: 0.5700
2025-09-08 12:00: 0.6450
Trade Summary: Total trades: 86, Buy volume: 10566.66, Sell volume: 2416.89, Average price: 0.5112, Price range: 0.1516 - 0.9250

Output: No


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 588680
Question: Will Apple's iPhone 17 Pro cost more than $1000 when it launches?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 294697.099345
Price History:
2025-09-08 12:00: 0.3550
2025-09-08 13:00: 0.5750
2025-09-08 13:00: 0.4250
2025-09-08 14:00: 0.5600
2025-09-08 14:00: 0.4400
2025-09-08 15:00: 0.6300
2025-09-08 15:00: 0.3700
2025-09-08 16:00: 0.3650
2025-09-08 16:00: 0.6350
2025-09-08 17:00: 0.3450
2025-09-08 17:00: 0.6550
2025-09-08 18:00: 0.3750
2025-09-08 18:00: 0.6250
2025-09-08 19:00: 0.3750
2025-09-08 19:00: 0.6250
2025-09-08 20:00: 0.6250
2025-09-08 20:00: 0.3750
2025-09-08 21:00: 0.3300
2025-09-08 21:00: 0.6700
2025-09-08 22:00: 0.3200
2025-09-08 22:00: 0.6800
2025-09-08 23:00: 0.7700
2025-09-08 23:00: 0.2300
2025-09-09 00:00: 0.2450
2025-09-09 00:00: 0.7550
2025-09-09 01:00: 0.2000
2025-09-09 01:00: 0.8000
2025-09-09 02:00: 0.1200
2025-09-09 02:00: 0.8800
Trade Summary: Total trades: 73, Buy volume: 6938.15, Sell volume: 1597.78, Average price: 0.5327, Price range: 0.1200 - 0.8800

Output: No


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 588680
Question: Will Apple's iPhone 17 Pro cost more than $1000 when it launches?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 294697.099345
Price History:
2025-09-09 03:00: 0.2800
2025-09-09 03:00: 0.7200
2025-09-09 04:00: 0.2900
2025-09-09 04:00: 0.7100
2025-09-09 05:00: 0.7650
2025-09-09 05:00: 0.2350
2025-09-09 06:00: 0.8050
2025-09-09 06:00: 0.1950
2025-09-09 07:00: 0.2150
2025-09-09 07:00: 0.7850
2025-09-09 08:00: 0.7450
2025-09-09 08:00: 0.2550
2025-09-09 09:00: 0.2550
2025-09-09 09:00: 0.7450
2025-09-09 10:00: 0.1700
2025-09-09 10:00: 0.8300
2025-09-09 11:00: 0.1600
2025-09-09 11:00: 0.8400
2025-09-09 12:00: 0.1550
2025-09-09 12:00: 0.8450
2025-09-09 13:00: 0.8650
2025-09-09 13:00: 0.1350
2025-09-09 14:00: 0.1250
2025-09-09 14:00: 0.8750
2025-09-09 15:00: 0.0095
2025-09-09 15:00: 0.9905
2025-09-09 16:00: 0.0030
2025-09-09 16:00: 0.9970
2025-09-09 17:00: 0.0040
Trade Summary: Total trades: 204, Buy volume: 43992.30, Sell volume: 12259.91, Average price: 0.5820, Price range: 0.0010 - 0.9980

Output: No


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 588680
Question: Will Apple's iPhone 17 Pro cost more than $1000 when it launches?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 294697.099345
Price History:
2025-09-09 17:00: 0.9960
2025-09-09 18:00: 0.9980
2025-09-09 18:00: 0.0020
2025-09-09 19:00: 0.0010
2025-09-09 19:00: 0.9990
2025-09-09 20:00: 0.0005
2025-09-09 20:00: 0.9995
2025-09-09 21:00: 0.9995
2025-09-09 21:00: 0.0005
2025-09-09 22:00: 0.0015
2025-09-09 22:00: 0.9985
2025-09-09 23:00: 0.0015
2025-09-09 23:00: 0.9985
2025-09-10 00:00: 0.0015
2025-09-10 00:00: 0.9985
2025-09-10 01:00: 0.0015
2025-09-10 01:00: 0.9985
2025-09-10 02:00: 0.9985
2025-09-10 02:00: 0.0015
2025-09-10 03:00: 0.9985
2025-09-10 03:00: 0.0015
2025-09-10 04:00: 0.0015
2025-09-10 04:00: 0.9985
2025-09-10 05:00: 0.0015
2025-09-10 05:00: 0.9985
2025-09-10 06:00: 0.9985
2025-09-10 06:00: 0.0015
2025-09-10 07:00: 0.0015
2025-09-10 07:00: 0.9985
Trade Summary: Total trades: 73, Buy volume: 106513.56, Sell volume: 15048.57, Average price: 0.7388, Price range: 0.0010 - 0.9990

Output: No


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 588680
Question: Will Apple's iPhone 17 Pro cost more than $1000 when it launches?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 294697.099345
Price History:
2025-09-10 08:00: 0.0015
2025-09-10 08:00: 0.9985
2025-09-10 09:00: 0.0015
2025-09-10 09:00: 0.9985
2025-09-10 10:00: 0.9985
2025-09-10 10:00: 0.0015
2025-09-10 11:00: 0.9985
2025-09-10 11:00: 0.0015
2025-09-10 12:00: 0.0015
2025-09-10 12:00: 0.9985
2025-09-10 13:00: 0.9985
2025-09-10 13:00: 0.0015
2025-09-10 14:00: 0.0015
2025-09-10 14:00: 0.9985
2025-09-10 15:00: 0.0015
2025-09-10 15:00: 0.9985
2025-09-10 16:00: 0.9985
2025-09-10 16:00: 0.0015
2025-09-10 17:00: 0.0015
2025-09-10 17:00: 0.9985
2025-09-10 18:00: 0.9985
2025-09-10 18:00: 0.0015
2025-09-10 19:00: 0.9985
2025-09-10 19:00: 0.0015
2025-09-10 20:00: 0.0015
2025-09-10 20:00: 0.9985
2025-09-10 21:00: 0.9985
2025-09-10 21:00: 0.0015
2025-09-10 22:00: 0.9985
Trade Summary: Total trades: 44, Buy volume: 5194.48, Sell volume: 3082.06, Average price: 0.7944, Price range: 0.0010 - 0.9990

Output: No


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 588680
Question: Will Apple's iPhone 17 Pro cost more than $1000 when it launches?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 294697.099345
Price History:
2025-09-10 22:00: 0.0015
2025-09-10 23:00: 0.0015
2025-09-10 23:00: 0.9985
2025-09-11 00:00: 0.9985
2025-09-11 00:00: 0.0015
2025-09-11 01:00: 0.0015
2025-09-11 01:00: 0.9985
2025-09-11 02:00: 0.9985
2025-09-11 02:00: 0.0015
2025-09-11 03:00: 0.0015
2025-09-11 03:00: 0.9985
2025-09-11 04:00: 0.9985
2025-09-11 04:00: 0.0015
2025-09-11 05:00: 0.9985
2025-09-11 05:00: 0.0015
2025-09-11 06:00: 0.9985
2025-09-11 06:00: 0.0015
2025-09-11 07:00: 0.9985
2025-09-11 07:00: 0.0015
2025-09-11 08:00: 0.9985
2025-09-11 08:00: 0.0015
2025-09-11 09:00: 0.9985
2025-09-11 09:00: 0.0015
2025-09-11 10:00: 0.9985
2025-09-11 10:00: 0.0015
2025-09-11 11:00: 0.9985
2025-09-11 11:00: 0.0015
2025-09-11 12:00: 0.9985
2025-09-11 12:00: 0.0015
Trade Summary: Total trades: 42, Buy volume: 4991.59, Sell volume: 8631.30, Average price: 0.7610, Price range: 0.0010 - 0.9990

Output: No


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 588680
Question: Will Apple's iPhone 17 Pro cost more than $1000 when it launches?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 294697.099345
Price History:
2025-09-11 13:00: 0.9985
2025-09-11 13:00: 0.0015
2025-09-11 14:00: 0.9980
2025-09-11 14:00: 0.0020
2025-09-11 15:00: 0.9985
2025-09-11 15:00: 0.0015
2025-09-11 16:00: 0.9985
2025-09-11 16:00: 0.0015
2025-09-11 17:00: 0.9985
2025-09-11 17:00: 0.0015
2025-09-11 18:00: 0.0015
2025-09-11 18:00: 0.9985
2025-09-11 19:00: 0.9975
2025-09-11 19:00: 0.0025
2025-09-11 20:00: 0.9975
2025-09-11 20:00: 0.0025
2025-09-11 21:00: 0.9975
2025-09-11 21:00: 0.0025
2025-09-11 22:00: 0.9975
2025-09-11 22:00: 0.0025
2025-09-11 23:00: 0.9975
2025-09-11 23:00: 0.0025
2025-09-12 00:00: 0.9975
2025-09-12 00:00: 0.0025
2025-09-12 01:00: 0.9975
2025-09-12 01:00: 0.0025
2025-09-12 02:00: 0.9975
2025-09-12 02:00: 0.0025
2025-09-12 03:00: 0.9975
Trade Summary: Total trades: 32, Buy volume: 2885.58, Sell volume: 37180.01, Average price: 0.8112, Price range: 0.0010 - 0.9990

Output: No


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 588680
Question: Will Apple's iPhone 17 Pro cost more than $1000 when it launches?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 294697.099345
Price History:
2025-09-12 03:00: 0.0025
2025-09-12 04:00: 0.9975
2025-09-12 04:00: 0.0025
2025-09-12 05:00: 0.9975
2025-09-12 05:00: 0.0025
2025-09-12 06:00: 0.0025
2025-09-12 06:00: 0.9975
2025-09-12 07:00: 0.0025
2025-09-12 07:00: 0.9975
2025-09-12 08:00: 0.9975
2025-09-12 08:00: 0.0025
2025-09-12 09:00: 0.0020
2025-09-12 09:00: 0.9980
2025-09-12 10:00: 0.0020
2025-09-12 10:00: 0.9980
2025-09-12 11:00: 0.9975
2025-09-12 11:00: 0.0025
2025-09-12 12:00: 0.9975
2025-09-12 12:00: 0.0025
2025-09-12 13:00: 0.9975
2025-09-12 13:00: 0.0025
2025-09-12 14:00: 0.0025
2025-09-12 14:00: 0.9975
2025-09-12 15:00: 0.9970
2025-09-12 15:00: 0.0030
2025-09-12 16:00: 0.0030
2025-09-12 16:00: 0.9970
2025-09-12 17:00: 0.0025
2025-09-12 17:00: 0.9975
Trade Summary: Total trades: 17, Buy volume: 4009.54, Sell volume: 6271.87, Average price: 0.7633, Price range: 0.0018 - 0.9980

Output: No


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 588680
Question: Will Apple's iPhone 17 Pro cost more than $1000 when it launches?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 294697.099345
Price History:
2025-09-12 18:00: 0.9975
2025-09-12 18:00: 0.0025
2025-09-12 19:00: 0.0025
2025-09-12 19:00: 0.9975
2025-09-12 20:00: 0.0025
2025-09-12 20:00: 0.9975
2025-09-12 21:00: 0.9975
2025-09-12 21:00: 0.0025
2025-09-12 22:00: 0.9975
2025-09-12 22:00: 0.0025
2025-09-12 23:00: 0.0025
2025-09-12 23:00: 0.9975
2025-09-13 00:00: 0.0025
2025-09-13 00:00: 0.9975
2025-09-13 01:00: 0.0025
2025-09-13 01:00: 0.9975
2025-09-13 02:00: 0.0025
2025-09-13 02:00: 0.9975
2025-09-13 03:00: 0.9975
2025-09-13 03:00: 0.0025
2025-09-13 04:00: 0.0025
2025-09-13 04:00: 0.9975
2025-09-13 05:00: 0.9975
2025-09-13 05:00: 0.0025
2025-09-13 06:00: 0.9975
2025-09-13 06:00: 0.0025
2025-09-13 07:00: 0.9995
2025-09-13 07:00: 0.0005
2025-09-13 08:00: 0.9995
Trade Summary: Total trades: 22, Buy volume: 14890.59, Sell volume: 3650.00, Average price: 0.8622, Price range: 0.0020 - 0.9990

Output: No


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 588680
Question: Will Apple's iPhone 17 Pro cost more than $1000 when it launches?
Volume: 294697.099345
Price History:
2025-09-05 12:00: 0.2500
2025-09-05 12:00: 0.7500
2025-09-05 13:00: 0.2400
2025-09-05 13:00: 0.7600
2025-09-05 14:00: 0.2200
2025-09-05 14:00: 0.7800
2025-09-05 15:00: 0.7750
2025-09-05 15:00: 0.2250
2025-09-05 16:00: 0.1700
2025-09-05 16:00: 0.8300
2025-09-05 17:00: 0.1650
2025-09-05 17:00: 0.8350
2025-09-05 18:00: 0.1750
2025-09-05 18:00: 0.8250
2025-09-05 19:00: 0.1200
2025-09-05 19:00: 0.8800
2025-09-05 20:00: 0.1200
2025-09-05 20:00: 0.8800
2025-09-05 21:00: 0.1150
2025-09-05 21:00: 0.8850
2025-09-05 22:00: 0.1150
2025-09-05 22:00: 0.8850
2025-09-05 23:00: 0.1150
2025-09-05 23:00: 0.8850
2025-09-06 00:00: 0.8850
2025-09-06 00:00: 0.1150
2025-09-06 01:00: 0.1150
2025-09-06 01:00: 0.8850
2025-09-06 02:00: 0.1150
Trade Summary: Total trades: 5, Buy volume: 243.99, Sell volume: 0.00, Average price: 0.9560, Price range: 0.9400 - 0.9800
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 588680
Question: Will Apple's iPhone 17 Pro cost more than $1000 when it launches?
Volume: 294697.099345
Price History:
2025-09-06 02:00: 0.8850
2025-09-06 03:00: 0.8850
2025-09-06 03:00: 0.1150
2025-09-06 04:00: 0.1150
2025-09-06 04:00: 0.8850
2025-09-06 05:00: 0.9100
2025-09-06 05:00: 0.0900
2025-09-06 06:00: 0.9150
2025-09-06 06:00: 0.0850
2025-09-06 07:00: 0.0850
2025-09-06 07:00: 0.9150
2025-09-06 08:00: 0.0850
2025-09-06 08:00: 0.9150
2025-09-06 09:00: 0.0700
2025-09-06 09:00: 0.9300
2025-09-06 10:00: 0.9300
2025-09-06 10:00: 0.0700
2025-09-06 11:00: 0.0700
2025-09-06 11:00: 0.9300
2025-09-06 12:00: 0.9300
2025-09-06 12:00: 0.0700
2025-09-06 13:00: 0.0500
2025-09-06 13:00: 0.9500
2025-09-06 14:00: 0.0500
2025-09-06 14:00: 0.9500
2025-09-06 15:00: 0.9500
2025-09-06 15:00: 0.0500
2025-09-06 16:00: 0.9400
2025-09-06 16:00: 0.0600
Trade Summary: Total trades: 12, Buy volume: 631.88, Sell volume: 2.08, Average price: 0.7244, Price range: 0.0600 - 0.9400
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 588680
Question: Will Apple's iPhone 17 Pro cost more than $1000 when it launches?
Volume: 294697.099345
Price History:
2025-09-06 17:00: 0.9400
2025-09-06 17:00: 0.0600
2025-09-06 18:00: 0.9350
2025-09-06 18:00: 0.0650
2025-09-06 19:00: 0.0750
2025-09-06 19:00: 0.9250
2025-09-06 20:00: 0.0750
2025-09-06 20:00: 0.9250
2025-09-06 21:00: 0.9250
2025-09-06 21:00: 0.0750
2025-09-06 22:00: 0.0700
2025-09-06 22:00: 0.9300
2025-09-06 23:00: 0.9300
2025-09-06 23:00: 0.0700
2025-09-07 00:00: 0.9250
2025-09-07 00:00: 0.0750
2025-09-07 01:00: 0.9250
2025-09-07 01:00: 0.0750
2025-09-07 02:00: 0.0750
2025-09-07 02:00: 0.9250
2025-09-07 03:00: 0.9250
2025-09-07 03:00: 0.0750
2025-09-07 04:00: 0.9250
2025-09-07 04:00: 0.0750
2025-09-07 05:00: 0.9250
2025-09-07 05:00: 0.0750
2025-09-07 06:00: 0.9250
2025-09-07 06:00: 0.0750
2025-09-07 07:00: 0.9250
Trade Summary: Total trades: 2, Buy volume: 27.27, Sell volume: 0.00, Average price: 0.1100, Price range: 0.1100 - 0.1100
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 588680
Question: Will Apple's iPhone 17 Pro cost more than $1000 when it launches?
Volume: 294697.099345
Price History:
2025-09-07 07:00: 0.0750
2025-09-07 08:00: 0.9250
2025-09-07 08:00: 0.0750
2025-09-07 09:00: 0.9250
2025-09-07 09:00: 0.0750
2025-09-07 10:00: 0.5000
2025-09-07 10:00: 0.5000
2025-09-07 11:00: 0.4900
2025-09-07 11:00: 0.5100
2025-09-07 12:00: 0.0900
2025-09-07 12:00: 0.9100
2025-09-07 13:00: 0.9100
2025-09-07 13:00: 0.0900
2025-09-07 14:00: 0.8900
2025-09-07 14:00: 0.1100
2025-09-07 15:00: 0.1100
2025-09-07 15:00: 0.8900
2025-09-07 16:00: 0.1150
2025-09-07 16:00: 0.8850
2025-09-07 17:00: 0.1100
2025-09-07 17:00: 0.8900
2025-09-07 18:00: 0.7100
2025-09-07 18:00: 0.2900
2025-09-07 19:00: 0.2100
2025-09-07 19:00: 0.7900
2025-09-07 20:00: 0.8750
2025-09-07 20:00: 0.1250
2025-09-07 21:00: 0.1250
2025-09-07 21:00: 0.8750
Trade Summary: Total trades: 11, Buy volume: 966.59, Sell volume: 94.40, Average price: 0.3369, Price range: 0.0324 - 0.9700
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike, wash_trading

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 588680
Question: Will Apple's iPhone 17 Pro cost more than $1000 when it launches?
Volume: 294697.099345
Price History:
2025-09-07 22:00: 0.1850
2025-09-07 22:00: 0.8150
2025-09-07 23:00: 0.8200
2025-09-07 23:00: 0.1800
2025-09-08 00:00: 0.1950
2025-09-08 00:00: 0.8050
2025-09-08 01:00: 0.1950
2025-09-08 01:00: 0.8050
2025-09-08 02:00: 0.1950
2025-09-08 02:00: 0.8050
2025-09-08 03:00: 0.2850
2025-09-08 03:00: 0.7150
2025-09-08 04:00: 0.6050
2025-09-08 04:00: 0.3950
2025-09-08 05:00: 0.4650
2025-09-08 05:00: 0.5350
2025-09-08 06:00: 0.6850
2025-09-08 06:00: 0.3150
2025-09-08 07:00: 0.2200
2025-09-08 07:00: 0.7800
2025-09-08 08:00: 0.2000
2025-09-08 08:00: 0.8000
2025-09-08 09:00: 0.1400
2025-09-08 09:00: 0.8600
2025-09-08 10:00: 0.3600
2025-09-08 10:00: 0.6400
2025-09-08 11:00: 0.4300
2025-09-08 11:00: 0.5700
2025-09-08 12:00: 0.6450
Trade Summary: Total trades: 86, Buy volume: 10566.66, Sell volume: 2416.89, Average price: 0.5112, Price range: 0.1516 - 0.9250
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike, wash_trading

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 588680
Question: Will Apple's iPhone 17 Pro cost more than $1000 when it launches?
Volume: 294697.099345
Price History:
2025-09-08 12:00: 0.3550
2025-09-08 13:00: 0.5750
2025-09-08 13:00: 0.4250
2025-09-08 14:00: 0.5600
2025-09-08 14:00: 0.4400
2025-09-08 15:00: 0.6300
2025-09-08 15:00: 0.3700
2025-09-08 16:00: 0.3650
2025-09-08 16:00: 0.6350
2025-09-08 17:00: 0.3450
2025-09-08 17:00: 0.6550
2025-09-08 18:00: 0.3750
2025-09-08 18:00: 0.6250
2025-09-08 19:00: 0.3750
2025-09-08 19:00: 0.6250
2025-09-08 20:00: 0.6250
2025-09-08 20:00: 0.3750
2025-09-08 21:00: 0.3300
2025-09-08 21:00: 0.6700
2025-09-08 22:00: 0.3200
2025-09-08 22:00: 0.6800
2025-09-08 23:00: 0.7700
2025-09-08 23:00: 0.2300
2025-09-09 00:00: 0.2450
2025-09-09 00:00: 0.7550
2025-09-09 01:00: 0.2000
2025-09-09 01:00: 0.8000
2025-09-09 02:00: 0.1200
2025-09-09 02:00: 0.8800
Trade Summary: Total trades: 73, Buy volume: 6938.15, Sell volume: 1597.78, Average price: 0.5327, Price range: 0.1200 - 0.8800
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike, wash_trading

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 588680
Question: Will Apple's iPhone 17 Pro cost more than $1000 when it launches?
Volume: 294697.099345
Price History:
2025-09-09 03:00: 0.2800
2025-09-09 03:00: 0.7200
2025-09-09 04:00: 0.2900
2025-09-09 04:00: 0.7100
2025-09-09 05:00: 0.7650
2025-09-09 05:00: 0.2350
2025-09-09 06:00: 0.8050
2025-09-09 06:00: 0.1950
2025-09-09 07:00: 0.2150
2025-09-09 07:00: 0.7850
2025-09-09 08:00: 0.7450
2025-09-09 08:00: 0.2550
2025-09-09 09:00: 0.2550
2025-09-09 09:00: 0.7450
2025-09-09 10:00: 0.1700
2025-09-09 10:00: 0.8300
2025-09-09 11:00: 0.1600
2025-09-09 11:00: 0.8400
2025-09-09 12:00: 0.1550
2025-09-09 12:00: 0.8450
2025-09-09 13:00: 0.8650
2025-09-09 13:00: 0.1350
2025-09-09 14:00: 0.1250
2025-09-09 14:00: 0.8750
2025-09-09 15:00: 0.0095
2025-09-09 15:00: 0.9905
2025-09-09 16:00: 0.0030
2025-09-09 16:00: 0.9970
2025-09-09 17:00: 0.0040
Trade Summary: Total trades: 204, Buy volume: 43992.30, Sell volume: 12259.91, Average price: 0.5820, Price range: 0.0010 - 0.9980
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike, wash_trading

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 588680
Question: Will Apple's iPhone 17 Pro cost more than $1000 when it launches?
Volume: 294697.099345
Price History:
2025-09-09 17:00: 0.9960
2025-09-09 18:00: 0.9980
2025-09-09 18:00: 0.0020
2025-09-09 19:00: 0.0010
2025-09-09 19:00: 0.9990
2025-09-09 20:00: 0.0005
2025-09-09 20:00: 0.9995
2025-09-09 21:00: 0.9995
2025-09-09 21:00: 0.0005
2025-09-09 22:00: 0.0015
2025-09-09 22:00: 0.9985
2025-09-09 23:00: 0.0015
2025-09-09 23:00: 0.9985
2025-09-10 00:00: 0.0015
2025-09-10 00:00: 0.9985
2025-09-10 01:00: 0.0015
2025-09-10 01:00: 0.9985
2025-09-10 02:00: 0.9985
2025-09-10 02:00: 0.0015
2025-09-10 03:00: 0.9985
2025-09-10 03:00: 0.0015
2025-09-10 04:00: 0.0015
2025-09-10 04:00: 0.9985
2025-09-10 05:00: 0.0015
2025-09-10 05:00: 0.9985
2025-09-10 06:00: 0.9985
2025-09-10 06:00: 0.0015
2025-09-10 07:00: 0.0015
2025-09-10 07:00: 0.9985
Trade Summary: Total trades: 73, Buy volume: 106513.56, Sell volume: 15048.57, Average price: 0.7388, Price range: 0.0010 - 0.9990
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike, wash_trading

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 588680
Question: Will Apple's iPhone 17 Pro cost more than $1000 when it launches?
Volume: 294697.099345
Price History:
2025-09-10 08:00: 0.0015
2025-09-10 08:00: 0.9985
2025-09-10 09:00: 0.0015
2025-09-10 09:00: 0.9985
2025-09-10 10:00: 0.9985
2025-09-10 10:00: 0.0015
2025-09-10 11:00: 0.9985
2025-09-10 11:00: 0.0015
2025-09-10 12:00: 0.0015
2025-09-10 12:00: 0.9985
2025-09-10 13:00: 0.9985
2025-09-10 13:00: 0.0015
2025-09-10 14:00: 0.0015
2025-09-10 14:00: 0.9985
2025-09-10 15:00: 0.0015
2025-09-10 15:00: 0.9985
2025-09-10 16:00: 0.9985
2025-09-10 16:00: 0.0015
2025-09-10 17:00: 0.0015
2025-09-10 17:00: 0.9985
2025-09-10 18:00: 0.9985
2025-09-10 18:00: 0.0015
2025-09-10 19:00: 0.9985
2025-09-10 19:00: 0.0015
2025-09-10 20:00: 0.0015
2025-09-10 20:00: 0.9985
2025-09-10 21:00: 0.9985
2025-09-10 21:00: 0.0015
2025-09-10 22:00: 0.9985
Trade Summary: Total trades: 44, Buy volume: 5194.48, Sell volume: 3082.06, Average price: 0.7944, Price range: 0.0010 - 0.9990
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike, wash_trading

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 588680
Question: Will Apple's iPhone 17 Pro cost more than $1000 when it launches?
Volume: 294697.099345
Price History:
2025-09-10 22:00: 0.0015
2025-09-10 23:00: 0.0015
2025-09-10 23:00: 0.9985
2025-09-11 00:00: 0.9985
2025-09-11 00:00: 0.0015
2025-09-11 01:00: 0.0015
2025-09-11 01:00: 0.9985
2025-09-11 02:00: 0.9985
2025-09-11 02:00: 0.0015
2025-09-11 03:00: 0.0015
2025-09-11 03:00: 0.9985
2025-09-11 04:00: 0.9985
2025-09-11 04:00: 0.0015
2025-09-11 05:00: 0.9985
2025-09-11 05:00: 0.0015
2025-09-11 06:00: 0.9985
2025-09-11 06:00: 0.0015
2025-09-11 07:00: 0.9985
2025-09-11 07:00: 0.0015
2025-09-11 08:00: 0.9985
2025-09-11 08:00: 0.0015
2025-09-11 09:00: 0.9985
2025-09-11 09:00: 0.0015
2025-09-11 10:00: 0.9985
2025-09-11 10:00: 0.0015
2025-09-11 11:00: 0.9985
2025-09-11 11:00: 0.0015
2025-09-11 12:00: 0.9985
2025-09-11 12:00: 0.0015
Trade Summary: Total trades: 42, Buy volume: 4991.59, Sell volume: 8631.30, Average price: 0.7610, Price range: 0.0010 - 0.9990
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike, wash_trading

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 588680
Question: Will Apple's iPhone 17 Pro cost more than $1000 when it launches?
Volume: 294697.099345
Price History:
2025-09-11 13:00: 0.9985
2025-09-11 13:00: 0.0015
2025-09-11 14:00: 0.9980
2025-09-11 14:00: 0.0020
2025-09-11 15:00: 0.9985
2025-09-11 15:00: 0.0015
2025-09-11 16:00: 0.9985
2025-09-11 16:00: 0.0015
2025-09-11 17:00: 0.9985
2025-09-11 17:00: 0.0015
2025-09-11 18:00: 0.0015
2025-09-11 18:00: 0.9985
2025-09-11 19:00: 0.9975
2025-09-11 19:00: 0.0025
2025-09-11 20:00: 0.9975
2025-09-11 20:00: 0.0025
2025-09-11 21:00: 0.9975
2025-09-11 21:00: 0.0025
2025-09-11 22:00: 0.9975
2025-09-11 22:00: 0.0025
2025-09-11 23:00: 0.9975
2025-09-11 23:00: 0.0025
2025-09-12 00:00: 0.9975
2025-09-12 00:00: 0.0025
2025-09-12 01:00: 0.9975
2025-09-12 01:00: 0.0025
2025-09-12 02:00: 0.9975
2025-09-12 02:00: 0.0025
2025-09-12 03:00: 0.9975
Trade Summary: Total trades: 32, Buy volume: 2885.58, Sell volume: 37180.01, Average price: 0.8112, Price range: 0.0010 - 0.9990
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike, wash_trading

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 588680
Question: Will Apple's iPhone 17 Pro cost more than $1000 when it launches?
Volume: 294697.099345
Price History:
2025-09-12 03:00: 0.0025
2025-09-12 04:00: 0.9975
2025-09-12 04:00: 0.0025
2025-09-12 05:00: 0.9975
2025-09-12 05:00: 0.0025
2025-09-12 06:00: 0.0025
2025-09-12 06:00: 0.9975
2025-09-12 07:00: 0.0025
2025-09-12 07:00: 0.9975
2025-09-12 08:00: 0.9975
2025-09-12 08:00: 0.0025
2025-09-12 09:00: 0.0020
2025-09-12 09:00: 0.9980
2025-09-12 10:00: 0.0020
2025-09-12 10:00: 0.9980
2025-09-12 11:00: 0.9975
2025-09-12 11:00: 0.0025
2025-09-12 12:00: 0.9975
2025-09-12 12:00: 0.0025
2025-09-12 13:00: 0.9975
2025-09-12 13:00: 0.0025
2025-09-12 14:00: 0.0025
2025-09-12 14:00: 0.9975
2025-09-12 15:00: 0.9970
2025-09-12 15:00: 0.0030
2025-09-12 16:00: 0.0030
2025-09-12 16:00: 0.9970
2025-09-12 17:00: 0.0025
2025-09-12 17:00: 0.9975
Trade Summary: Total trades: 17, Buy volume: 4009.54, Sell volume: 6271.87, Average price: 0.7633, Price range: 0.0018 - 0.9980
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike, wash_trading

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 588680
Question: Will Apple's iPhone 17 Pro cost more than $1000 when it launches?
Volume: 294697.099345
Price History:
2025-09-12 18:00: 0.9975
2025-09-12 18:00: 0.0025
2025-09-12 19:00: 0.0025
2025-09-12 19:00: 0.9975
2025-09-12 20:00: 0.0025
2025-09-12 20:00: 0.9975
2025-09-12 21:00: 0.9975
2025-09-12 21:00: 0.0025
2025-09-12 22:00: 0.9975
2025-09-12 22:00: 0.0025
2025-09-12 23:00: 0.0025
2025-09-12 23:00: 0.9975
2025-09-13 00:00: 0.0025
2025-09-13 00:00: 0.9975
2025-09-13 01:00: 0.0025
2025-09-13 01:00: 0.9975
2025-09-13 02:00: 0.0025
2025-09-13 02:00: 0.9975
2025-09-13 03:00: 0.9975
2025-09-13 03:00: 0.0025
2025-09-13 04:00: 0.0025
2025-09-13 04:00: 0.9975
2025-09-13 05:00: 0.9975
2025-09-13 05:00: 0.0025
2025-09-13 06:00: 0.9975
2025-09-13 06:00: 0.0025
2025-09-13 07:00: 0.9995
2025-09-13 07:00: 0.0005
2025-09-13 08:00: 0.9995
Trade Summary: Total trades: 22, Buy volume: 14890.59, Sell volume: 3650.00, Average price: 0.8622, Price range: 0.0020 - 0.9990
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike, wash_trading

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 682956
Question: Will Republicans lose a seat in the US Senate for any state Trump won in 2024?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 781.5542
Price History:
2025-11-14 20:00: 0.5150
2025-11-14 20:00: 0.4850
2025-11-14 21:00: 0.4750
2025-11-14 21:00: 0.5250
2025-11-14 22:00: 0.4150
2025-11-14 22:00: 0.5850
2025-11-14 23:00: 0.4100
2025-11-14 23:00: 0.5900
2025-11-15 00:00: 0.4000
2025-11-15 00:00: 0.6000
2025-11-15 01:00: 0.3850
2025-11-15 01:00: 0.6150
2025-11-15 02:00: 0.3850
2025-11-15 02:00: 0.6150
2025-11-15 03:00: 0.3800
2025-11-15 03:00: 0.6200
2025-11-15 04:00: 0.3800
2025-11-15 04:00: 0.6200
2025-11-15 05:00: 0.2500
2025-11-15 05:00: 0.7500
2025-11-15 06:00: 0.2500
Trade Summary: No trades available

Output: No


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 682956
Question: Will Republicans lose a seat in the US Senate for any state Trump won in 2024?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 781.5542
Price History:
2025-11-15 06:00: 0.7500
2025-11-15 07:00: 0.2500
2025-11-15 07:00: 0.7500
2025-11-15 08:00: 0.2400
2025-11-15 08:00: 0.7600
2025-11-15 09:00: 0.2350
2025-11-15 09:00: 0.7650
2025-11-15 10:00: 0.2350
2025-11-15 10:00: 0.7650
2025-11-15 11:00: 0.2300
2025-11-15 11:00: 0.7700
2025-11-15 12:00: 0.2300
2025-11-15 12:00: 0.7700
2025-11-15 13:00: 0.2300
2025-11-15 13:00: 0.7700
2025-11-15 14:00: 0.1950
2025-11-15 14:00: 0.8050
2025-11-15 15:00: 0.1950
2025-11-15 15:00: 0.8050
2025-11-15 16:00: 0.1950
2025-11-15 16:00: 0.8050
Trade Summary: No trades available

Output: No


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 682956
Question: Will Republicans lose a seat in the US Senate for any state Trump won in 2024?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 781.5542
Price History:
2025-11-15 17:00: 0.1950
2025-11-15 17:00: 0.8050
2025-11-15 18:00: 0.1950
2025-11-15 18:00: 0.8050
2025-11-15 19:00: 0.8050
2025-11-15 19:00: 0.1950
2025-11-15 20:00: 0.1950
2025-11-15 20:00: 0.8050
2025-11-15 21:00: 0.1950
2025-11-15 21:00: 0.8050
2025-11-15 22:00: 0.1950
2025-11-15 22:00: 0.8050
2025-11-15 23:00: 0.1950
2025-11-15 23:00: 0.8050
2025-11-16 00:00: 0.1950
2025-11-16 00:00: 0.8050
2025-11-16 01:00: 0.1950
2025-11-16 01:00: 0.8050
2025-11-16 02:00: 0.1900
2025-11-16 02:00: 0.8100
2025-11-16 03:00: 0.1900
Trade Summary: No trades available

Output: No


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 682956
Question: Will Republicans lose a seat in the US Senate for any state Trump won in 2024?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 781.5542
Price History:
2025-11-16 03:00: 0.8100
2025-11-16 04:00: 0.1900
2025-11-16 04:00: 0.8100
2025-11-16 05:00: 0.1900
2025-11-16 05:00: 0.8100
2025-11-16 06:00: 0.1900
2025-11-16 06:00: 0.8100
2025-11-16 07:00: 0.1900
2025-11-16 07:00: 0.8100
2025-11-16 08:00: 0.1900
2025-11-16 08:00: 0.8100
2025-11-16 09:00: 0.1900
2025-11-16 09:00: 0.8100
2025-11-16 10:00: 0.1850
2025-11-16 10:00: 0.8150
2025-11-16 11:00: 0.1750
2025-11-16 11:00: 0.8250
2025-11-16 12:00: 0.1750
2025-11-16 12:00: 0.8250
2025-11-16 13:00: 0.1700
2025-11-16 13:00: 0.8300
Trade Summary: No trades available

Output: No


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 682956
Question: Will Republicans lose a seat in the US Senate for any state Trump won in 2024?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 781.5542
Price History:
2025-11-16 14:00: 0.1700
2025-11-16 14:00: 0.8300
2025-11-16 15:00: 0.1700
2025-11-16 15:00: 0.8300
2025-11-16 16:00: 0.1700
2025-11-16 16:00: 0.8300
2025-11-16 17:00: 0.1300
2025-11-16 17:00: 0.8700
2025-11-16 18:00: 0.1300
2025-11-16 18:00: 0.8700
2025-11-16 19:00: 0.1300
2025-11-16 19:00: 0.8700
2025-11-16 20:00: 0.1300
2025-11-16 20:00: 0.8700
2025-11-16 21:00: 0.1300
2025-11-16 21:00: 0.8700
2025-11-16 22:00: 0.1300
2025-11-16 22:00: 0.8700
2025-11-16 23:00: 0.1300
2025-11-16 23:00: 0.8700
2025-11-17 00:00: 0.1300
Trade Summary: No trades available

Output: No


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 682956
Question: Will Republicans lose a seat in the US Senate for any state Trump won in 2024?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 781.5542
Price History:
2025-11-17 00:00: 0.8700
2025-11-17 01:00: 0.1300
2025-11-17 01:00: 0.8700
2025-11-17 02:00: 0.1300
2025-11-17 02:00: 0.8700
2025-11-17 03:00: 0.1250
2025-11-17 03:00: 0.8750
2025-11-17 04:00: 0.1250
2025-11-17 04:00: 0.8750
2025-11-17 05:00: 0.1200
2025-11-17 05:00: 0.8800
2025-11-17 06:00: 0.1200
2025-11-17 06:00: 0.8800
2025-11-17 07:00: 0.1150
2025-11-17 07:00: 0.8850
2025-11-17 08:00: 0.1150
2025-11-17 08:00: 0.8850
2025-11-17 09:00: 0.1150
2025-11-17 09:00: 0.8850
2025-11-17 10:00: 0.1150
2025-11-17 10:00: 0.8850
Trade Summary: No trades available

Output: No


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 682956
Question: Will Republicans lose a seat in the US Senate for any state Trump won in 2024?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 781.5542
Price History:
2025-11-17 11:00: 0.1150
2025-11-17 11:00: 0.8850
2025-11-17 12:00: 0.1150
2025-11-17 12:00: 0.8850
2025-11-17 13:00: 0.1150
2025-11-17 13:00: 0.8850
2025-11-17 14:00: 0.1150
2025-11-17 14:00: 0.8850
2025-11-17 15:00: 0.1150
2025-11-17 15:00: 0.8850
2025-11-17 16:00: 0.1150
2025-11-17 16:00: 0.8850
2025-11-17 17:00: 0.1500
2025-11-17 17:00: 0.8500
2025-11-17 18:00: 0.1500
2025-11-17 18:00: 0.8500
2025-11-17 19:00: 0.1450
2025-11-17 19:00: 0.8550
2025-11-17 20:00: 0.1450
2025-11-17 20:00: 0.8550
2025-11-17 21:00: 0.1450
Trade Summary: No trades available

Output: No


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 682956
Question: Will Republicans lose a seat in the US Senate for any state Trump won in 2024?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 781.5542
Price History:
2025-11-17 21:00: 0.8550
2025-11-17 22:00: 0.1450
2025-11-17 22:00: 0.8550
2025-11-17 23:00: 0.1450
2025-11-17 23:00: 0.8550
2025-11-18 00:00: 0.1400
2025-11-18 00:00: 0.8600
2025-11-18 01:00: 0.1400
2025-11-18 01:00: 0.8600
2025-11-18 02:00: 0.1400
2025-11-18 02:00: 0.8600
2025-11-18 03:00: 0.1400
2025-11-18 03:00: 0.8600
2025-11-18 04:00: 0.1350
2025-11-18 04:00: 0.8650
2025-11-18 05:00: 0.1350
2025-11-18 05:00: 0.8650
2025-11-18 06:00: 0.1350
2025-11-18 06:00: 0.8650
2025-11-18 07:00: 0.1350
2025-11-18 07:00: 0.8650
Trade Summary: No trades available

Output: No


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 682956
Question: Will Republicans lose a seat in the US Senate for any state Trump won in 2024?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 781.5542
Price History:
2025-11-18 08:00: 0.1350
2025-11-18 08:00: 0.8650
2025-11-18 09:00: 0.1350
2025-11-18 09:00: 0.8650
2025-11-18 10:00: 0.1350
2025-11-18 10:00: 0.8650
2025-11-18 11:00: 0.1350
2025-11-18 11:00: 0.8650
2025-11-18 12:00: 0.1350
2025-11-18 12:00: 0.8650
2025-11-18 13:00: 0.1350
2025-11-18 13:00: 0.8650
2025-11-18 14:00: 0.1350
2025-11-18 14:00: 0.8650
2025-11-18 15:00: 0.1350
2025-11-18 15:00: 0.8650
2025-11-18 16:00: 0.1350
2025-11-18 16:00: 0.8650
2025-11-18 17:00: 0.1350
2025-11-18 17:00: 0.8650
2025-11-18 18:00: 0.1350
Trade Summary: No trades available

Output: No


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 682956
Question: Will Republicans lose a seat in the US Senate for any state Trump won in 2024?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 781.5542
Price History:
2025-11-18 18:00: 0.8650
2025-11-18 19:00: 0.1350
2025-11-18 19:00: 0.8650
2025-11-18 20:00: 0.1300
2025-11-18 20:00: 0.8700
2025-11-18 21:00: 0.1250
2025-11-18 21:00: 0.8750
2025-11-18 22:00: 0.1200
2025-11-18 22:00: 0.8800
2025-11-18 23:00: 0.1200
2025-11-18 23:00: 0.8800
2025-11-19 00:00: 0.1200
2025-11-19 00:00: 0.8800
2025-11-19 01:00: 0.1200
2025-11-19 01:00: 0.8800
2025-11-19 02:00: 0.1200
2025-11-19 02:00: 0.8800
2025-11-19 03:00: 0.1200
2025-11-19 03:00: 0.8800
2025-11-19 04:00: 0.1200
2025-11-19 04:00: 0.8800
Trade Summary: No trades available

Output: No


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 682956
Question: Will Republicans lose a seat in the US Senate for any state Trump won in 2024?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 781.5542
Price History:
2025-11-19 05:00: 0.1150
2025-11-19 05:00: 0.8850
2025-11-19 06:00: 0.1150
2025-11-19 06:00: 0.8850
2025-11-19 07:00: 0.1150
2025-11-19 07:00: 0.8850
2025-11-19 08:00: 0.1150
2025-11-19 08:00: 0.8850
2025-11-19 09:00: 0.1150
2025-11-19 09:00: 0.8850
2025-11-19 10:00: 0.1150
2025-11-19 10:00: 0.8850
2025-11-19 11:00: 0.1150
2025-11-19 11:00: 0.8850
2025-11-19 12:00: 0.1150
2025-11-19 12:00: 0.8850
2025-11-19 13:00: 0.1150
2025-11-19 13:00: 0.8850
2025-11-19 14:00: 0.1150
2025-11-19 14:00: 0.8850
2025-11-19 15:00: 0.1150
Trade Summary: No trades available

Output: No


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 682956
Question: Will Republicans lose a seat in the US Senate for any state Trump won in 2024?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 781.5542
Price History:
2025-11-19 15:00: 0.8850
2025-11-19 16:00: 0.1150
2025-11-19 16:00: 0.8850
2025-11-19 17:00: 0.1150
2025-11-19 17:00: 0.8850
2025-11-19 18:00: 0.1150
2025-11-19 18:00: 0.8850
2025-11-19 19:00: 0.1150
2025-11-19 19:00: 0.8850
2025-11-19 20:00: 0.1150
2025-11-19 20:00: 0.8850
2025-11-19 21:00: 0.1150
2025-11-19 21:00: 0.8850
2025-11-19 22:00: 0.1100
2025-11-19 22:00: 0.8900
2025-11-19 23:00: 0.1100
2025-11-19 23:00: 0.8900
2025-11-20 00:00: 0.1100
2025-11-20 00:00: 0.8900
2025-11-20 01:00: 0.1100
2025-11-20 01:00: 0.8900
Trade Summary: No trades available

Output: No


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 682956
Question: Will Republicans lose a seat in the US Senate for any state Trump won in 2024?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 781.5542
Price History:
2025-11-20 02:00: 0.1100
2025-11-20 02:00: 0.8900
2025-11-20 03:00: 0.1100
2025-11-20 03:00: 0.8900
2025-11-20 04:00: 0.1100
2025-11-20 04:00: 0.8900
2025-11-20 05:00: 0.1100
2025-11-20 05:00: 0.8900
2025-11-20 06:00: 0.1100
2025-11-20 06:00: 0.8900
2025-11-20 07:00: 0.1100
2025-11-20 07:00: 0.8900
2025-11-20 08:00: 0.1100
2025-11-20 08:00: 0.8900
2025-11-20 09:00: 0.8900
2025-11-20 09:00: 0.1100
2025-11-20 10:00: 0.1100
2025-11-20 10:00: 0.8900
2025-11-20 11:00: 0.1100
2025-11-20 11:00: 0.8900
2025-11-20 12:00: 0.1100
Trade Summary: No trades available

Output: No


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 682956
Question: Will Republicans lose a seat in the US Senate for any state Trump won in 2024?
Volume: 781.5542
Price History:
2025-11-14 20:00: 0.5150
2025-11-14 20:00: 0.4850
2025-11-14 21:00: 0.4750
2025-11-14 21:00: 0.5250
2025-11-14 22:00: 0.4150
2025-11-14 22:00: 0.5850
2025-11-14 23:00: 0.4100
2025-11-14 23:00: 0.5900
2025-11-15 00:00: 0.4000
2025-11-15 00:00: 0.6000
2025-11-15 01:00: 0.3850
2025-11-15 01:00: 0.6150
2025-11-15 02:00: 0.3850
2025-11-15 02:00: 0.6150
2025-11-15 03:00: 0.3800
2025-11-15 03:00: 0.6200
2025-11-15 04:00: 0.3800
2025-11-15 04:00: 0.6200
2025-11-15 05:00: 0.2500
2025-11-15 05:00: 0.7500
2025-11-15 06:00: 0.2500
Trade Summary: No trades available
Manipulation Indicators Detected: None

Output: No


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 682956
Question: Will Republicans lose a seat in the US Senate for any state Trump won in 2024?
Volume: 781.5542
Price History:
2025-11-15 06:00: 0.7500
2025-11-15 07:00: 0.2500
2025-11-15 07:00: 0.7500
2025-11-15 08:00: 0.2400
2025-11-15 08:00: 0.7600
2025-11-15 09:00: 0.2350
2025-11-15 09:00: 0.7650
2025-11-15 10:00: 0.2350
2025-11-15 10:00: 0.7650
2025-11-15 11:00: 0.2300
2025-11-15 11:00: 0.7700
2025-11-15 12:00: 0.2300
2025-11-15 12:00: 0.7700
2025-11-15 13:00: 0.2300
2025-11-15 13:00: 0.7700
2025-11-15 14:00: 0.1950
2025-11-15 14:00: 0.8050
2025-11-15 15:00: 0.1950
2025-11-15 15:00: 0.8050
2025-11-15 16:00: 0.1950
2025-11-15 16:00: 0.8050
Trade Summary: No trades available
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 682956
Question: Will Republicans lose a seat in the US Senate for any state Trump won in 2024?
Volume: 781.5542
Price History:
2025-11-15 17:00: 0.1950
2025-11-15 17:00: 0.8050
2025-11-15 18:00: 0.1950
2025-11-15 18:00: 0.8050
2025-11-15 19:00: 0.8050
2025-11-15 19:00: 0.1950
2025-11-15 20:00: 0.1950
2025-11-15 20:00: 0.8050
2025-11-15 21:00: 0.1950
2025-11-15 21:00: 0.8050
2025-11-15 22:00: 0.1950
2025-11-15 22:00: 0.8050
2025-11-15 23:00: 0.1950
2025-11-15 23:00: 0.8050
2025-11-16 00:00: 0.1950
2025-11-16 00:00: 0.8050
2025-11-16 01:00: 0.1950
2025-11-16 01:00: 0.8050
2025-11-16 02:00: 0.1900
2025-11-16 02:00: 0.8100
2025-11-16 03:00: 0.1900
Trade Summary: No trades available
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 682956
Question: Will Republicans lose a seat in the US Senate for any state Trump won in 2024?
Volume: 781.5542
Price History:
2025-11-16 03:00: 0.8100
2025-11-16 04:00: 0.1900
2025-11-16 04:00: 0.8100
2025-11-16 05:00: 0.1900
2025-11-16 05:00: 0.8100
2025-11-16 06:00: 0.1900
2025-11-16 06:00: 0.8100
2025-11-16 07:00: 0.1900
2025-11-16 07:00: 0.8100
2025-11-16 08:00: 0.1900
2025-11-16 08:00: 0.8100
2025-11-16 09:00: 0.1900
2025-11-16 09:00: 0.8100
2025-11-16 10:00: 0.1850
2025-11-16 10:00: 0.8150
2025-11-16 11:00: 0.1750
2025-11-16 11:00: 0.8250
2025-11-16 12:00: 0.1750
2025-11-16 12:00: 0.8250
2025-11-16 13:00: 0.1700
2025-11-16 13:00: 0.8300
Trade Summary: No trades available
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 682956
Question: Will Republicans lose a seat in the US Senate for any state Trump won in 2024?
Volume: 781.5542
Price History:
2025-11-16 14:00: 0.1700
2025-11-16 14:00: 0.8300
2025-11-16 15:00: 0.1700
2025-11-16 15:00: 0.8300
2025-11-16 16:00: 0.1700
2025-11-16 16:00: 0.8300
2025-11-16 17:00: 0.1300
2025-11-16 17:00: 0.8700
2025-11-16 18:00: 0.1300
2025-11-16 18:00: 0.8700
2025-11-16 19:00: 0.1300
2025-11-16 19:00: 0.8700
2025-11-16 20:00: 0.1300
2025-11-16 20:00: 0.8700
2025-11-16 21:00: 0.1300
2025-11-16 21:00: 0.8700
2025-11-16 22:00: 0.1300
2025-11-16 22:00: 0.8700
2025-11-16 23:00: 0.1300
2025-11-16 23:00: 0.8700
2025-11-17 00:00: 0.1300
Trade Summary: No trades available
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 682956
Question: Will Republicans lose a seat in the US Senate for any state Trump won in 2024?
Volume: 781.5542
Price History:
2025-11-17 00:00: 0.8700
2025-11-17 01:00: 0.1300
2025-11-17 01:00: 0.8700
2025-11-17 02:00: 0.1300
2025-11-17 02:00: 0.8700
2025-11-17 03:00: 0.1250
2025-11-17 03:00: 0.8750
2025-11-17 04:00: 0.1250
2025-11-17 04:00: 0.8750
2025-11-17 05:00: 0.1200
2025-11-17 05:00: 0.8800
2025-11-17 06:00: 0.1200
2025-11-17 06:00: 0.8800
2025-11-17 07:00: 0.1150
2025-11-17 07:00: 0.8850
2025-11-17 08:00: 0.1150
2025-11-17 08:00: 0.8850
2025-11-17 09:00: 0.1150
2025-11-17 09:00: 0.8850
2025-11-17 10:00: 0.1150
2025-11-17 10:00: 0.8850
Trade Summary: No trades available
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 682956
Question: Will Republicans lose a seat in the US Senate for any state Trump won in 2024?
Volume: 781.5542
Price History:
2025-11-17 11:00: 0.1150
2025-11-17 11:00: 0.8850
2025-11-17 12:00: 0.1150
2025-11-17 12:00: 0.8850
2025-11-17 13:00: 0.1150
2025-11-17 13:00: 0.8850
2025-11-17 14:00: 0.1150
2025-11-17 14:00: 0.8850
2025-11-17 15:00: 0.1150
2025-11-17 15:00: 0.8850
2025-11-17 16:00: 0.1150
2025-11-17 16:00: 0.8850
2025-11-17 17:00: 0.1500
2025-11-17 17:00: 0.8500
2025-11-17 18:00: 0.1500
2025-11-17 18:00: 0.8500
2025-11-17 19:00: 0.1450
2025-11-17 19:00: 0.8550
2025-11-17 20:00: 0.1450
2025-11-17 20:00: 0.8550
2025-11-17 21:00: 0.1450
Trade Summary: No trades available
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 682956
Question: Will Republicans lose a seat in the US Senate for any state Trump won in 2024?
Volume: 781.5542
Price History:
2025-11-17 21:00: 0.8550
2025-11-17 22:00: 0.1450
2025-11-17 22:00: 0.8550
2025-11-17 23:00: 0.1450
2025-11-17 23:00: 0.8550
2025-11-18 00:00: 0.1400
2025-11-18 00:00: 0.8600
2025-11-18 01:00: 0.1400
2025-11-18 01:00: 0.8600
2025-11-18 02:00: 0.1400
2025-11-18 02:00: 0.8600
2025-11-18 03:00: 0.1400
2025-11-18 03:00: 0.8600
2025-11-18 04:00: 0.1350
2025-11-18 04:00: 0.8650
2025-11-18 05:00: 0.1350
2025-11-18 05:00: 0.8650
2025-11-18 06:00: 0.1350
2025-11-18 06:00: 0.8650
2025-11-18 07:00: 0.1350
2025-11-18 07:00: 0.8650
Trade Summary: No trades available
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 682956
Question: Will Republicans lose a seat in the US Senate for any state Trump won in 2024?
Volume: 781.5542
Price History:
2025-11-18 08:00: 0.1350
2025-11-18 08:00: 0.8650
2025-11-18 09:00: 0.1350
2025-11-18 09:00: 0.8650
2025-11-18 10:00: 0.1350
2025-11-18 10:00: 0.8650
2025-11-18 11:00: 0.1350
2025-11-18 11:00: 0.8650
2025-11-18 12:00: 0.1350
2025-11-18 12:00: 0.8650
2025-11-18 13:00: 0.1350
2025-11-18 13:00: 0.8650
2025-11-18 14:00: 0.1350
2025-11-18 14:00: 0.8650
2025-11-18 15:00: 0.1350
2025-11-18 15:00: 0.8650
2025-11-18 16:00: 0.1350
2025-11-18 16:00: 0.8650
2025-11-18 17:00: 0.1350
2025-11-18 17:00: 0.8650
2025-11-18 18:00: 0.1350
Trade Summary: No trades available
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 682956
Question: Will Republicans lose a seat in the US Senate for any state Trump won in 2024?
Volume: 781.5542
Price History:
2025-11-18 18:00: 0.8650
2025-11-18 19:00: 0.1350
2025-11-18 19:00: 0.8650
2025-11-18 20:00: 0.1300
2025-11-18 20:00: 0.8700
2025-11-18 21:00: 0.1250
2025-11-18 21:00: 0.8750
2025-11-18 22:00: 0.1200
2025-11-18 22:00: 0.8800
2025-11-18 23:00: 0.1200
2025-11-18 23:00: 0.8800
2025-11-19 00:00: 0.1200
2025-11-19 00:00: 0.8800
2025-11-19 01:00: 0.1200
2025-11-19 01:00: 0.8800
2025-11-19 02:00: 0.1200
2025-11-19 02:00: 0.8800
2025-11-19 03:00: 0.1200
2025-11-19 03:00: 0.8800
2025-11-19 04:00: 0.1200
2025-11-19 04:00: 0.8800
Trade Summary: No trades available
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 682956
Question: Will Republicans lose a seat in the US Senate for any state Trump won in 2024?
Volume: 781.5542
Price History:
2025-11-19 05:00: 0.1150
2025-11-19 05:00: 0.8850
2025-11-19 06:00: 0.1150
2025-11-19 06:00: 0.8850
2025-11-19 07:00: 0.1150
2025-11-19 07:00: 0.8850
2025-11-19 08:00: 0.1150
2025-11-19 08:00: 0.8850
2025-11-19 09:00: 0.1150
2025-11-19 09:00: 0.8850
2025-11-19 10:00: 0.1150
2025-11-19 10:00: 0.8850
2025-11-19 11:00: 0.1150
2025-11-19 11:00: 0.8850
2025-11-19 12:00: 0.1150
2025-11-19 12:00: 0.8850
2025-11-19 13:00: 0.1150
2025-11-19 13:00: 0.8850
2025-11-19 14:00: 0.1150
2025-11-19 14:00: 0.8850
2025-11-19 15:00: 0.1150
Trade Summary: No trades available
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 682956
Question: Will Republicans lose a seat in the US Senate for any state Trump won in 2024?
Volume: 781.5542
Price History:
2025-11-19 15:00: 0.8850
2025-11-19 16:00: 0.1150
2025-11-19 16:00: 0.8850
2025-11-19 17:00: 0.1150
2025-11-19 17:00: 0.8850
2025-11-19 18:00: 0.1150
2025-11-19 18:00: 0.8850
2025-11-19 19:00: 0.1150
2025-11-19 19:00: 0.8850
2025-11-19 20:00: 0.1150
2025-11-19 20:00: 0.8850
2025-11-19 21:00: 0.1150
2025-11-19 21:00: 0.8850
2025-11-19 22:00: 0.1100
2025-11-19 22:00: 0.8900
2025-11-19 23:00: 0.1100
2025-11-19 23:00: 0.8900
2025-11-20 00:00: 0.1100
2025-11-20 00:00: 0.8900
2025-11-20 01:00: 0.1100
2025-11-20 01:00: 0.8900
Trade Summary: No trades available
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 682956
Question: Will Republicans lose a seat in the US Senate for any state Trump won in 2024?
Volume: 781.5542
Price History:
2025-11-20 02:00: 0.1100
2025-11-20 02:00: 0.8900
2025-11-20 03:00: 0.1100
2025-11-20 03:00: 0.8900
2025-11-20 04:00: 0.1100
2025-11-20 04:00: 0.8900
2025-11-20 05:00: 0.1100
2025-11-20 05:00: 0.8900
2025-11-20 06:00: 0.1100
2025-11-20 06:00: 0.8900
2025-11-20 07:00: 0.1100
2025-11-20 07:00: 0.8900
2025-11-20 08:00: 0.1100
2025-11-20 08:00: 0.8900
2025-11-20 09:00: 0.8900
2025-11-20 09:00: 0.1100
2025-11-20 10:00: 0.1100
2025-11-20 10:00: 0.8900
2025-11-20 11:00: 0.1100
2025-11-20 11:00: 0.8900
2025-11-20 12:00: 0.1100
Trade Summary: No trades available
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 551485
Question: Trump criminalizes desecrating the American flag before August?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 21442.032999
Price History:
2025-06-10 20:00: 0.3150
2025-06-10 21:00: 0.7250
2025-06-10 23:00: 0.1750
2025-06-11 00:00: 0.8400
2025-06-11 02:00: 0.1450
2025-06-11 03:00: 0.8500
2025-06-11 05:00: 0.2050
2025-06-11 06:00: 0.7700
2025-06-11 08:00: 0.2050
2025-06-11 09:00: 0.7950
2025-06-11 11:00: 0.2000
2025-06-11 12:00: 0.8000
2025-06-11 14:00: 0.1350
2025-06-11 15:00: 0.8650
2025-06-11 17:00: 0.1550
2025-06-11 18:00: 0.8450
2025-06-11 20:00: 0.1400
2025-06-11 21:00: 0.8600
2025-06-11 23:00: 0.1400
2025-06-12 00:00: 0.8600
2025-06-12 02:00: 0.1500
2025-06-12 03:00: 0.8450
2025-06-12 05:00: 0.1550
2025-06-12 06:00: 0.8450
2025-06-12 08:00: 0.1550
2025-06-12 09:00: 0.8450
2025-06-12 11:00: 0.1550
2025-06-12 12:00: 0.8450
2025-06-12 14:00: 0.1500
2025-06-12 15:00: 0.8500
2025-06-12 17:00: 0.1500
2025-06-12 18:00: 0.8500
2025-06-12 20:00: 0.1500
2025-06-12 21:00: 0.8450
2025-06-12 23:00: 0.1550
2025-06-13 00:00: 0.8450
2025-06-13 02:00: 0.1500
2025-06-13 04:00: 0.8450
2025-06-13 06:00: 0.1500
2025-06-13 07:00: 0.8500
2025-06-13 09:00: 0.1500
2025-06-13 10:00: 0.8500
2025-06-13 12:00: 0.1550
2025-06-13 13:00: 0.8450
2025-06-13 15:00: 0.1500
2025-06-13 16:00: 0.8500
2025-06-13 18:00: 0.1500
2025-06-13 19:00: 0.8500
2025-06-13 21:00: 0.1550
2025-06-13 22:00: 0.8400
Trade Summary: Total trades: 130, Buy volume: 5787.38, Sell volume: 2425.21, Average price: 0.4564, Price range: 0.1200 - 0.8800

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 551485
Question: Trump criminalizes desecrating the American flag before August?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 21442.032999
Price History:
2025-06-14 19:00: 0.8400
2025-06-14 21:00: 0.1600
2025-06-14 22:00: 0.8400
2025-06-15 00:00: 0.1500
2025-06-15 01:00: 0.8500
2025-06-15 03:00: 0.1500
2025-06-15 04:00: 0.8500
2025-06-15 06:00: 0.1500
2025-06-15 07:00: 0.8500
2025-06-15 09:00: 0.1500
2025-06-15 10:00: 0.8500
2025-06-15 12:00: 0.1500
2025-06-15 13:00: 0.8500
2025-06-15 15:00: 0.1500
2025-06-15 16:00: 0.8500
2025-06-15 18:00: 0.1500
2025-06-15 19:00: 0.8500
2025-06-15 21:00: 0.1500
2025-06-15 22:00: 0.8500
2025-06-16 00:00: 0.1450
2025-06-16 01:00: 0.8550
2025-06-16 03:00: 0.1450
2025-06-16 04:00: 0.8550
2025-06-16 06:00: 0.1450
2025-06-16 07:00: 0.8550
2025-06-16 09:00: 0.1450
2025-06-16 10:00: 0.8550
2025-06-16 12:00: 0.1450
2025-06-16 13:00: 0.8550
2025-06-16 15:00: 0.1450
2025-06-16 16:00: 0.8550
2025-06-16 18:00: 0.1450
2025-06-16 19:00: 0.8550
2025-06-16 21:00: 0.1450
2025-06-16 22:00: 0.8550
2025-06-17 00:00: 0.1450
2025-06-17 01:00: 0.8550
2025-06-17 03:00: 0.1450
2025-06-17 04:00: 0.8550
2025-06-17 06:00: 0.1450
2025-06-17 07:00: 0.8550
2025-06-17 09:00: 0.1400
2025-06-17 10:00: 0.8600
2025-06-17 12:00: 0.1400
2025-06-17 13:00: 0.8550
2025-06-17 15:00: 0.1450
2025-06-17 16:00: 0.8550
2025-06-17 18:00: 0.1450
2025-06-17 19:00: 0.8550
2025-06-17 21:00: 0.1450
Trade Summary: Total trades: 19, Buy volume: 341.23, Sell volume: 1365.48, Average price: 0.5161, Price range: 0.0500 - 0.9500

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 551485
Question: Trump criminalizes desecrating the American flag before August?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 21442.032999
Price History:
2025-06-18 18:00: 0.0650
2025-06-18 19:00: 0.9350
2025-06-18 21:00: 0.0650
2025-06-18 22:00: 0.9350
2025-06-19 00:00: 0.0650
2025-06-19 01:00: 0.9350
2025-06-19 03:00: 0.0650
2025-06-19 04:00: 0.9400
2025-06-19 06:00: 0.0550
2025-06-19 07:00: 0.9350
2025-06-19 09:00: 0.0700
2025-06-19 10:00: 0.9350
2025-06-19 12:00: 0.0650
2025-06-19 13:00: 0.9350
2025-06-19 15:00: 0.0650
2025-06-19 16:00: 0.9350
2025-06-19 18:00: 0.0650
2025-06-19 19:00: 0.9350
2025-06-19 21:00: 0.0650
2025-06-19 22:00: 0.9350
2025-06-20 00:00: 0.0650
2025-06-20 01:00: 0.9350
2025-06-20 03:00: 0.0750
2025-06-20 04:00: 0.9250
2025-06-20 06:00: 0.0750
2025-06-20 07:00: 0.9250
2025-06-20 09:00: 0.0750
2025-06-20 10:00: 0.9250
2025-06-20 12:00: 0.0750
2025-06-20 13:00: 0.9250
2025-06-20 15:00: 0.0750
2025-06-20 16:00: 0.9250
2025-06-20 18:00: 0.0750
2025-06-20 19:00: 0.9250
2025-06-20 21:00: 0.0750
2025-06-20 22:00: 0.9250
2025-06-21 00:00: 0.0750
2025-06-21 01:00: 0.9250
2025-06-21 03:00: 0.0750
2025-06-21 04:00: 0.9250
2025-06-21 06:00: 0.0750
2025-06-21 07:00: 0.9250
2025-06-21 09:00: 0.0750
2025-06-21 10:00: 0.9250
2025-06-21 12:00: 0.0750
2025-06-21 13:00: 0.9250
2025-06-21 15:00: 0.0750
2025-06-21 16:00: 0.9250
2025-06-21 18:00: 0.0750
2025-06-21 19:00: 0.9250
Trade Summary: Total trades: 14, Buy volume: 422.33, Sell volume: 334.06, Average price: 0.4386, Price range: 0.0700 - 0.9300

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 551485
Question: Trump criminalizes desecrating the American flag before August?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 21442.032999
Price History:
2025-06-22 16:00: 0.9250
2025-06-22 18:00: 0.0750
2025-06-22 19:00: 0.9250
2025-06-22 21:00: 0.1050
2025-06-22 22:00: 0.9050
2025-06-23 00:00: 0.0950
2025-06-23 01:00: 0.9050
2025-06-23 03:00: 0.0950
2025-06-23 04:00: 0.9050
2025-06-23 06:00: 0.1000
2025-06-23 07:00: 0.9000
2025-06-23 09:00: 0.0950
2025-06-23 10:00: 0.9000
2025-06-23 12:00: 0.1100
2025-06-23 13:00: 0.8900
2025-06-23 15:00: 0.1150
2025-06-23 16:00: 0.8850
2025-06-23 18:00: 0.1200
2025-06-23 19:00: 0.8800
2025-06-23 21:00: 0.1250
2025-06-23 22:00: 0.9100
2025-06-24 00:00: 0.0950
2025-06-24 01:00: 0.9050
2025-06-24 03:00: 0.0950
2025-06-24 04:00: 0.9050
2025-06-24 06:00: 0.0950
2025-06-24 07:00: 0.9050
2025-06-24 09:00: 0.0950
2025-06-24 10:00: 0.9050
2025-06-24 12:00: 0.0950
2025-06-24 13:00: 0.9100
2025-06-24 15:00: 0.0900
2025-06-24 16:00: 0.9100
2025-06-24 18:00: 0.0900
2025-06-24 19:00: 0.9100
2025-06-24 21:00: 0.0900
2025-06-24 22:00: 0.9100
2025-06-25 00:00: 0.0900
2025-06-25 01:00: 0.9100
2025-06-25 03:00: 0.0900
2025-06-25 04:00: 0.9100
2025-06-25 06:00: 0.0900
2025-06-25 07:00: 0.9100
2025-06-25 09:00: 0.0900
2025-06-25 10:00: 0.9100
2025-06-25 12:00: 0.0900
2025-06-25 13:00: 0.9100
2025-06-25 15:00: 0.0900
2025-06-25 16:00: 0.9100
2025-06-25 18:00: 0.0900
Trade Summary: Total trades: 15, Buy volume: 451.39, Sell volume: 816.12, Average price: 0.5284, Price range: 0.0800 - 0.9200

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 551485
Question: Trump criminalizes desecrating the American flag before August?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 21442.032999
Price History:
2025-06-26 15:00: 0.0850
2025-06-26 16:00: 0.9100
2025-06-26 18:00: 0.0850
2025-06-26 19:00: 0.9100
2025-06-26 21:00: 0.0900
2025-06-26 22:00: 0.9100
2025-06-27 00:00: 0.0850
2025-06-27 01:00: 0.9100
2025-06-27 03:00: 0.0900
2025-06-27 04:00: 0.9100
2025-06-27 06:00: 0.0850
2025-06-27 07:00: 0.9150
2025-06-27 09:00: 0.0850
2025-06-27 10:00: 0.9150
2025-06-27 12:00: 0.0850
2025-06-27 13:00: 0.9150
2025-06-27 15:00: 0.0850
2025-06-27 16:00: 0.9150
2025-06-27 18:00: 0.0850
2025-06-27 19:00: 0.9150
2025-06-27 21:00: 0.0850
2025-06-27 22:00: 0.9150
2025-06-28 00:00: 0.0850
2025-06-28 01:00: 0.9150
2025-06-28 03:00: 0.0750
2025-06-28 04:00: 0.9250
2025-06-28 06:00: 0.0750
2025-06-28 07:00: 0.9250
2025-06-28 09:00: 0.0750
2025-06-28 10:00: 0.9250
2025-06-28 12:00: 0.0800
2025-06-28 13:00: 0.9250
2025-06-28 15:00: 0.0800
2025-06-28 16:00: 0.9250
2025-06-28 18:00: 0.0800
2025-06-28 19:00: 0.9250
2025-06-28 21:00: 0.0800
2025-06-28 22:00: 0.9250
2025-06-29 00:00: 0.0750
2025-06-29 01:00: 0.9250
2025-06-29 03:00: 0.0750
2025-06-29 04:00: 0.9250
2025-06-29 06:00: 0.0750
2025-06-29 07:00: 0.9250
2025-06-29 09:00: 0.0750
2025-06-29 10:00: 0.9250
2025-06-29 12:00: 0.0800
2025-06-29 13:00: 0.9250
2025-06-29 15:00: 0.0750
2025-06-29 16:00: 0.9250
Trade Summary: Total trades: 7, Buy volume: 1921.57, Sell volume: 1.17, Average price: 0.6871, Price range: 0.0800 - 0.9498

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 551485
Question: Trump criminalizes desecrating the American flag before August?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 21442.032999
Price History:
2025-06-30 13:00: 0.9635
2025-06-30 15:00: 0.0350
2025-06-30 16:00: 0.9630
2025-06-30 18:00: 0.0365
2025-06-30 19:00: 0.9620
2025-06-30 21:00: 0.0440
2025-06-30 22:00: 0.9585
2025-07-01 00:00: 0.0400
2025-07-01 01:00: 0.9635
2025-07-01 03:00: 0.0365
2025-07-01 04:00: 0.9635
2025-07-01 06:00: 0.0335
2025-07-01 07:00: 0.9665
2025-07-01 09:00: 0.0330
2025-07-01 10:00: 0.9665
2025-07-01 12:00: 0.0315
2025-07-01 13:00: 0.9685
2025-07-01 15:00: 0.0140
2025-07-01 16:00: 0.9845
2025-07-01 18:00: 0.0190
2025-07-01 19:00: 0.9790
2025-07-01 21:00: 0.0195
2025-07-01 22:00: 0.9825
2025-07-02 00:00: 0.0175
2025-07-02 01:00: 0.9800
2025-07-02 03:00: 0.0215
2025-07-02 04:00: 0.9805
2025-07-02 06:00: 0.0205
2025-07-02 07:00: 0.9785
2025-07-02 09:00: 0.0215
2025-07-02 10:00: 0.9800
2025-07-02 12:00: 0.0155
2025-07-02 13:00: 0.9835
2025-07-02 15:00: 0.0235
2025-07-02 16:00: 0.9765
2025-07-02 18:00: 0.0150
2025-07-02 19:00: 0.9835
2025-07-02 21:00: 0.0160
2025-07-02 22:00: 0.9765
2025-07-03 00:00: 0.0155
2025-07-03 01:00: 0.9835
2025-07-03 03:00: 0.0155
2025-07-03 04:00: 0.9805
2025-07-03 06:00: 0.0170
2025-07-03 07:00: 0.9840
2025-07-03 09:00: 0.0080
2025-07-03 10:00: 0.9915
2025-07-03 12:00: 0.0085
2025-07-03 13:00: 0.9915
2025-07-03 15:00: 0.0085
Trade Summary: Total trades: 22, Buy volume: 2923.32, Sell volume: 616.94, Average price: 0.4594, Price range: 0.0130 - 0.9900

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 551485
Question: Trump criminalizes desecrating the American flag before August?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 21442.032999
Price History:
2025-07-04 12:00: 0.0130
2025-07-04 13:00: 0.9870
2025-07-04 15:00: 0.0130
2025-07-04 16:00: 0.9870
2025-07-04 18:00: 0.0130
2025-07-04 19:00: 0.9870
2025-07-04 21:00: 0.0130
2025-07-04 22:00: 0.9870
2025-07-05 00:00: 0.0130
2025-07-05 01:00: 0.9870
2025-07-05 03:00: 0.0130
2025-07-05 04:00: 0.9870
2025-07-05 06:00: 0.0140
2025-07-05 07:00: 0.9865
2025-07-05 09:00: 0.0135
2025-07-05 10:00: 0.9860
2025-07-05 12:00: 0.0135
2025-07-05 13:00: 0.9865
2025-07-05 15:00: 0.0135
2025-07-05 16:00: 0.9865
2025-07-05 18:00: 0.0135
2025-07-05 19:00: 0.9865
2025-07-05 21:00: 0.0135
2025-07-05 22:00: 0.9865
2025-07-06 00:00: 0.0135
2025-07-06 01:00: 0.9865
2025-07-06 03:00: 0.0135
2025-07-06 04:00: 0.9865
2025-07-06 06:00: 0.0140
2025-07-06 07:00: 0.9870
2025-07-06 09:00: 0.0150
2025-07-06 10:00: 0.9855
2025-07-06 12:00: 0.0145
2025-07-06 13:00: 0.9850
2025-07-06 15:00: 0.0145
2025-07-06 16:00: 0.9850
2025-07-06 18:00: 0.0150
2025-07-06 19:00: 0.9855
2025-07-06 21:00: 0.0145
2025-07-06 22:00: 0.9855
2025-07-07 00:00: 0.0150
2025-07-07 01:00: 0.9855
2025-07-07 03:00: 0.0150
2025-07-07 04:00: 0.9850
2025-07-07 06:00: 0.0150
2025-07-07 07:00: 0.9850
2025-07-07 09:00: 0.0145
2025-07-07 10:00: 0.9855
2025-07-07 12:00: 0.0150
2025-07-07 13:00: 0.9850
Trade Summary: Total trades: 11, Buy volume: 303.03, Sell volume: 556.32, Average price: 0.6327, Price range: 0.0165 - 0.9890

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 551485
Question: Trump criminalizes desecrating the American flag before August?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 21442.032999
Price History:
2025-07-08 10:00: 0.9845
2025-07-08 12:00: 0.0155
2025-07-08 13:00: 0.9845
2025-07-08 15:00: 0.0155
2025-07-08 16:00: 0.9845
2025-07-08 18:00: 0.0155
2025-07-08 19:00: 0.9845
2025-07-08 21:00: 0.0155
2025-07-08 22:00: 0.9870
2025-07-09 00:00: 0.0150
2025-07-09 01:00: 0.9855
2025-07-09 03:00: 0.0150
2025-07-09 04:00: 0.9855
2025-07-09 06:00: 0.0145
2025-07-09 07:00: 0.9855
2025-07-09 09:00: 0.0150
2025-07-09 10:00: 0.9855
2025-07-09 12:00: 0.0145
2025-07-09 13:00: 0.9855
2025-07-09 15:00: 0.0150
2025-07-09 16:00: 0.9865
2025-07-09 18:00: 0.0130
2025-07-09 19:00: 0.9870
2025-07-09 21:00: 0.0140
2025-07-09 22:00: 0.9870
2025-07-10 00:00: 0.0130
2025-07-10 01:00: 0.9875
2025-07-10 03:00: 0.0130
2025-07-10 04:00: 0.9870
2025-07-10 06:00: 0.0135
2025-07-10 07:00: 0.9870
2025-07-10 09:00: 0.0125
2025-07-10 10:00: 0.9870
2025-07-10 12:00: 0.0130
2025-07-10 13:00: 0.9870
2025-07-10 15:00: 0.0130
2025-07-10 16:00: 0.9875
2025-07-10 18:00: 0.0130
2025-07-10 19:00: 0.9870
2025-07-10 21:00: 0.0125
2025-07-10 22:00: 0.9870
2025-07-11 00:00: 0.0130
2025-07-11 01:00: 0.9870
2025-07-11 03:00: 0.0135
2025-07-11 04:00: 0.9870
2025-07-11 06:00: 0.0130
2025-07-11 07:00: 0.9870
2025-07-11 09:00: 0.0125
2025-07-11 10:00: 0.9875
2025-07-11 12:00: 0.0125
Trade Summary: Total trades: 4, Buy volume: 199.15, Sell volume: 48.16, Average price: 0.7433, Price range: 0.0180 - 0.9900

Output: Yes