Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 587299
Question: Will Party for Freedom win the fourth most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?
Volume: 45198.336532
Price History:
2025-09-18 08:00: 0.9620
2025-09-18 11:00: 0.9620
2025-09-18 15:00: 0.9620
2025-09-18 18:00: 0.0380
2025-09-18 22:00: 0.9620
2025-09-19 01:00: 0.9620
2025-09-19 05:00: 0.0380
2025-09-19 08:00: 0.9620
2025-09-19 12:00: 0.0380
2025-09-19 15:00: 0.9620
2025-09-19 19:00: 0.0380
2025-09-19 22:00: 0.9620
2025-09-20 02:00: 0.0380
2025-09-20 05:00: 0.9620
2025-09-20 09:00: 0.0380
2025-09-20 12:00: 0.9620
2025-09-20 16:00: 0.9620
2025-09-20 19:00: 0.9620
2025-09-20 23:00: 0.0380
2025-09-21 02:00: 0.9620
2025-09-21 06:00: 0.9620
2025-09-21 09:00: 0.0380
2025-09-21 13:00: 0.9620
2025-09-21 16:00: 0.0380
2025-09-21 20:00: 0.9620
2025-09-21 23:00: 0.0380
2025-09-22 03:00: 0.9620
2025-09-22 06:00: 0.0380
2025-09-22 10:00: 0.9620
2025-09-22 13:00: 0.9620
Trade Summary: Total trades: 3, Buy volume: 56.00, Sell volume: 0.00, Average price: 0.9740, Price range: 0.9740 - 0.9740
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 587299
Question: Will Party for Freedom win the fourth most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?
Volume: 45198.336532
Price History:
2025-09-22 21:00: 0.9675
2025-09-23 00:00: 0.0355
2025-09-23 04:00: 0.9645
2025-09-23 07:00: 0.0355
2025-09-23 11:00: 0.0355
2025-09-23 14:00: 0.0355
2025-09-23 18:00: 0.9650
2025-09-23 21:00: 0.0355
2025-09-24 01:00: 0.9645
2025-09-24 04:00: 0.0355
2025-09-24 08:00: 0.0355
2025-09-24 11:00: 0.0355
2025-09-24 15:00: 0.0360
2025-09-24 18:00: 0.0360
2025-09-24 22:00: 0.0370
2025-09-25 01:00: 0.0360
2025-09-25 05:00: 0.9640
2025-09-25 08:00: 0.0370
2025-09-25 12:00: 0.9635
2025-09-25 15:00: 0.0365
2025-09-25 19:00: 0.0340
2025-09-25 22:00: 0.0340
2025-09-26 02:00: 0.9660
2025-09-26 05:00: 0.9660
2025-09-26 09:00: 0.9660
2025-09-26 12:00: 0.9660
2025-09-26 16:00: 0.9660
2025-09-26 19:00: 0.0340
2025-09-26 23:00: 0.9660
2025-09-27 02:00: 0.9660
Trade Summary: Total trades: 7, Buy volume: 58.00, Sell volume: 36.99, Average price: 0.4323, Price range: 0.0210 - 0.9790
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 587299
Question: Will Party for Freedom win the fourth most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?
Volume: 45198.336532
Price History:
2025-09-27 10:00: 0.9660
2025-09-27 13:00: 0.9660
2025-09-27 17:00: 0.9655
2025-09-27 20:00: 0.0340
2025-09-28 00:00: 0.9660
2025-09-28 03:00: 0.0340
2025-09-28 07:00: 0.0340
2025-09-28 10:00: 0.0345
2025-09-28 14:00: 0.0350
2025-09-28 17:00: 0.0350
2025-09-28 21:00: 0.0350
2025-09-29 00:00: 0.0350
2025-09-29 04:00: 0.0350
2025-09-29 07:00: 0.9650
2025-09-29 11:00: 0.0345
2025-09-29 14:00: 0.0340
2025-09-29 18:00: 0.0340
2025-09-29 21:00: 0.9655
2025-09-30 01:00: 0.0340
2025-09-30 04:00: 0.9660
2025-09-30 08:00: 0.0345
2025-09-30 11:00: 0.9660
2025-09-30 15:00: 0.0340
2025-09-30 18:00: 0.9660
2025-09-30 22:00: 0.0340
2025-10-01 01:00: 0.9660
2025-10-01 05:00: 0.9655
2025-10-01 08:00: 0.9660
2025-10-01 12:00: 0.9660
2025-10-01 15:00: 0.9660
Trade Summary: Total trades: 14, Buy volume: 231.00, Sell volume: 151.01, Average price: 0.5000, Price range: 0.0200 - 0.9800
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 587299
Question: Will Party for Freedom win the fourth most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?
Volume: 45198.336532
Price History:
2025-10-01 23:00: 0.0340
2025-10-02 02:00: 0.9660
2025-10-02 06:00: 0.9660
2025-10-02 09:00: 0.9660
2025-10-02 13:00: 0.0340
2025-10-02 16:00: 0.9660
2025-10-02 20:00: 0.0340
2025-10-02 23:00: 0.0340
2025-10-03 03:00: 0.0340
2025-10-03 06:00: 0.0340
2025-10-03 10:00: 0.9660
2025-10-03 13:00: 0.0340
2025-10-03 17:00: 0.0340
2025-10-03 20:00: 0.9660
2025-10-04 00:00: 0.9660
2025-10-04 03:00: 0.9655
2025-10-04 07:00: 0.9655
2025-10-04 10:00: 0.0345
2025-10-04 14:00: 0.9655
2025-10-04 17:00: 0.0345
2025-10-04 21:00: 0.0345
2025-10-05 00:00: 0.9655
2025-10-05 04:00: 0.9655
2025-10-05 07:00: 0.0345
2025-10-05 11:00: 0.9660
2025-10-05 14:00: 0.9655
2025-10-05 18:00: 0.9655
2025-10-05 21:00: 0.0325
2025-10-06 01:00: 0.0325
2025-10-06 04:00: 0.0325
Trade Summary: Total trades: 1, Buy volume: 10.00, Sell volume: 0.00, Average price: 0.9800, Price range: 0.9800 - 0.9800
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 587299
Question: Will Party for Freedom win the fourth most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?
Volume: 45198.336532
Price History:
2025-10-06 12:00: 0.9675
2025-10-06 15:00: 0.0325
2025-10-06 19:00: 0.0325
2025-10-06 22:00: 0.9680
2025-10-07 02:00: 0.0320
2025-10-07 05:00: 0.0320
2025-10-07 09:00: 0.0320
2025-10-07 12:00: 0.9680
2025-10-07 16:00: 0.0320
2025-10-07 19:00: 0.9680
2025-10-07 23:00: 0.0320
2025-10-08 02:00: 0.9680
2025-10-08 06:00: 0.9680
2025-10-08 09:00: 0.0320
2025-10-08 13:00: 0.9680
2025-10-08 16:00: 0.9680
2025-10-08 20:00: 0.0320
2025-10-08 23:00: 0.9680
2025-10-09 03:00: 0.9680
2025-10-09 06:00: 0.9680
2025-10-09 10:00: 0.9680
2025-10-09 13:00: 0.0320
2025-10-09 17:00: 0.9680
2025-10-09 20:00: 0.0320
2025-10-10 00:00: 0.9680
2025-10-10 03:00: 0.0320
2025-10-10 07:00: 0.0270
2025-10-10 10:00: 0.0270
2025-10-10 14:00: 0.9725
2025-10-10 17:00: 0.0270
Trade Summary: Total trades: 4, Buy volume: 27.91, Sell volume: 1461.29, Average price: 0.5001, Price range: 0.0190 - 0.9810
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 587299
Question: Will Party for Freedom win the fourth most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?
Volume: 45198.336532
Price History:
2025-10-11 01:00: 0.9730
2025-10-11 04:00: 0.0270
2025-10-11 08:00: 0.9735
2025-10-11 11:00: 0.9730
2025-10-11 15:00: 0.9735
2025-10-11 18:00: 0.0270
2025-10-11 22:00: 0.0265
2025-10-12 01:00: 0.0270
2025-10-12 05:00: 0.9730
2025-10-12 08:00: 0.0270
2025-10-12 12:00: 0.9730
2025-10-12 15:00: 0.9730
2025-10-12 19:00: 0.9730
2025-10-12 22:00: 0.9730
2025-10-13 02:00: 0.9730
2025-10-13 05:00: 0.9730
2025-10-13 09:00: 0.0270
2025-10-13 12:00: 0.9730
2025-10-13 16:00: 0.9730
2025-10-13 19:00: 0.0270
2025-10-13 23:00: 0.9730
2025-10-14 02:00: 0.9730
2025-10-14 06:00: 0.0270
2025-10-14 09:00: 0.9730
2025-10-14 13:00: 0.0270
2025-10-14 16:00: 0.0270
2025-10-14 20:00: 0.0270
2025-10-14 23:00: 0.9730
2025-10-15 03:00: 0.0270
2025-10-15 06:00: 0.9730
Trade Summary: Total trades: 7, Buy volume: 173.33, Sell volume: 0.00, Average price: 0.9825, Price range: 0.9810 - 0.9912
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 587299
Question: Will Party for Freedom win the fourth most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?
Volume: 45198.336532
Price History:
2025-10-15 14:00: 0.0210
2025-10-15 17:00: 0.0210
2025-10-15 21:00: 0.9825
2025-10-16 00:00: 0.0130
2025-10-16 04:00: 0.9915
2025-10-16 07:00: 0.0085
2025-10-16 11:00: 0.0215
2025-10-16 14:00: 0.9785
2025-10-16 18:00: 0.9785
2025-10-16 21:00: 0.0220
2025-10-17 01:00: 0.0210
2025-10-17 04:00: 0.0225
2025-10-17 08:00: 0.0245
2025-10-17 11:00: 0.9755
2025-10-17 15:00: 0.0225
2025-10-17 18:00: 0.9790
2025-10-17 22:00: 0.0210
2025-10-18 01:00: 0.9790
2025-10-18 05:00: 0.9790
2025-10-18 08:00: 0.0190
2025-10-18 12:00: 0.9785
2025-10-18 15:00: 0.0215
2025-10-18 19:00: 0.9785
2025-10-18 22:00: 0.9785
2025-10-19 02:00: 0.9785
2025-10-19 05:00: 0.0215
2025-10-19 09:00: 0.9780
2025-10-19 12:00: 0.9780
2025-10-19 16:00: 0.0220
2025-10-19 19:00: 0.9775
Trade Summary: Total trades: 7, Buy volume: 166.75, Sell volume: 0.00, Average price: 0.8519, Price range: 0.0090 - 0.9930
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 587299
Question: Will Party for Freedom win the fourth most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?
Volume: 45198.336532
Price History:
2025-10-20 03:00: 0.9775
2025-10-20 06:00: 0.9775
2025-10-20 10:00: 0.9775
2025-10-20 13:00: 0.9770
2025-10-20 17:00: 0.0230
2025-10-20 20:00: 0.0225
2025-10-21 00:00: 0.9775
2025-10-21 03:00: 0.9775
2025-10-21 07:00: 0.9775
2025-10-21 10:00: 0.0230
2025-10-21 14:00: 0.0230
2025-10-21 17:00: 0.0230
2025-10-21 21:00: 0.9770
2025-10-22 00:00: 0.0230
2025-10-22 04:00: 0.9770
2025-10-22 07:00: 0.0230
2025-10-22 11:00: 0.9770
2025-10-22 14:00: 0.0230
2025-10-22 18:00: 0.9770
2025-10-22 21:00: 0.0230
2025-10-23 01:00: 0.9770
2025-10-23 04:00: 0.0180
2025-10-23 08:00: 0.9815
2025-10-23 11:00: 0.0190
2025-10-23 15:00: 0.9845
2025-10-23 18:00: 0.0225
2025-10-23 22:00: 0.9795
2025-10-24 01:00: 0.0205
2025-10-24 05:00: 0.9795
2025-10-24 08:00: 0.0205
Trade Summary: Total trades: 25, Buy volume: 369.68, Sell volume: 173.03, Average price: 0.7152, Price range: 0.0100 - 0.9900
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 587299
Question: Will Party for Freedom win the fourth most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?
Volume: 45198.336532
Price History:
2025-10-24 16:00: 0.9795
2025-10-24 19:00: 0.0225
2025-10-24 23:00: 0.9775
2025-10-25 02:00: 0.0225
2025-10-25 06:00: 0.9775
2025-10-25 09:00: 0.0190
2025-10-25 13:00: 0.9760
2025-10-25 16:00: 0.0275
2025-10-25 20:00: 0.9800
2025-10-25 23:00: 0.0190
2025-10-26 03:00: 0.9805
2025-10-26 06:00: 0.0200
2025-10-26 10:00: 0.9800
2025-10-26 13:00: 0.0230
2025-10-26 17:00: 0.9805
2025-10-26 20:00: 0.0165
2025-10-27 00:00: 0.9770
2025-10-27 03:00: 0.0200
2025-10-27 07:00: 0.9790
2025-10-27 10:00: 0.0250
2025-10-27 14:00: 0.9625
2025-10-27 17:00: 0.0445
2025-10-27 21:00: 0.9655
2025-10-28 00:00: 0.0345
2025-10-28 04:00: 0.9660
2025-10-28 07:00: 0.0310
2025-10-28 11:00: 0.9775
2025-10-28 14:00: 0.0815
2025-10-28 18:00: 0.9160
2025-10-28 21:00: 0.0735
Trade Summary: Total trades: 70, Buy volume: 6524.15, Sell volume: 272.29, Average price: 0.6457, Price range: 0.0060 - 0.9940
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 587299
Question: Will Party for Freedom win the fourth most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?
Volume: 45198.336532
Price History:
2025-10-29 05:00: 0.9270
2025-10-29 12:00: 0.1295
2025-10-29 16:00: 0.9545
2025-10-29 19:00: 0.0075
2025-10-29 23:00: 0.9915
2025-10-30 02:00: 0.0075
2025-10-30 06:00: 0.9995
2025-10-30 09:00: 0.0005
2025-10-30 13:00: 0.9825
2025-10-30 16:00: 0.0020
2025-10-30 20:00: 0.9995
2025-10-30 23:00: 0.0005
2025-10-31 03:00: 0.9995
2025-10-31 06:00: 0.0005
2025-10-31 10:00: 0.9995
2025-10-31 13:00: 0.0005
2025-10-31 17:00: 0.9995
2025-10-31 20:00: 0.0005
2025-11-01 00:00: 0.9980
2025-11-01 03:00: 0.0020
2025-11-01 07:00: 0.9980
2025-11-01 10:00: 0.0020
2025-11-01 14:00: 0.9980
2025-11-01 17:00: 0.0015
2025-11-01 21:00: 0.9985
2025-11-02 00:00: 0.0015
2025-11-02 03:00: 0.9985
2025-11-02 06:00: 0.0015
2025-11-02 10:00: 0.9990
2025-11-02 13:00: 0.0010
Trade Summary: Total trades: 107, Buy volume: 20748.96, Sell volume: 14128.95, Average price: 0.6373, Price range: 0.0010 - 0.9990
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike, wash_trading

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 587280
Question: Will the GreenLeft–Labour Party alliance win the fourth most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 70381.04441
Price History:
2025-09-04 00:00: 0.5000
2025-09-04 02:00: 0.0450
2025-09-04 04:00: 0.0500
2025-09-04 06:00: 0.0500
2025-09-04 08:00: 0.9500
2025-09-04 10:00: 0.0500
2025-09-04 12:00: 0.9500
2025-09-04 14:00: 0.0450
2025-09-04 16:00: 0.9715
2025-09-04 18:00: 0.0265
2025-09-04 20:00: 0.0235
2025-09-04 22:00: 0.0235
2025-09-05 00:00: 0.9765
2025-09-05 02:00: 0.9765
2025-09-05 04:00: 0.9765
2025-09-05 06:00: 0.9765
2025-09-05 08:00: 0.0220
2025-09-05 10:00: 0.0220
2025-09-05 12:00: 0.0210
2025-09-05 14:00: 0.0175
2025-09-05 16:00: 0.0180
2025-09-05 18:00: 0.0180
2025-09-05 20:00: 0.0175
2025-09-05 22:00: 0.0175
2025-09-06 00:00: 0.0180
2025-09-06 02:00: 0.9815
2025-09-06 04:00: 0.9815
2025-09-06 06:00: 0.0185
2025-09-06 08:00: 0.9815
2025-09-06 10:00: 0.0185
2025-09-06 12:00: 0.0185
2025-09-06 14:00: 0.9815
2025-09-06 16:00: 0.0185
2025-09-06 18:00: 0.9795
2025-09-06 20:00: 0.9795
2025-09-06 22:00: 0.0205
2025-09-07 00:00: 0.0220
2025-09-07 02:00: 0.9795
2025-09-07 04:00: 0.0200
2025-09-07 06:00: 0.9730
2025-09-07 08:00: 0.0290
2025-09-07 10:00: 0.0285
2025-09-07 12:00: 0.0250
2025-09-07 14:00: 0.9765
2025-09-07 16:00: 0.9775
2025-09-07 18:00: 0.9760
2025-09-07 20:00: 0.9775
2025-09-07 22:00: 0.1090
2025-09-08 00:00: 0.1085
2025-09-08 02:00: 0.1085
Trade Summary: Total trades: 14, Buy volume: 1639.50, Sell volume: 120.00, Average price: 0.5024, Price range: 0.0130 - 0.9800

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 587280
Question: Will the GreenLeft–Labour Party alliance win the fourth most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 70381.04441
Price History:
2025-09-08 14:00: 0.1055
2025-09-08 16:00: 0.8940
2025-09-08 18:00: 0.0990
2025-09-08 20:00: 0.0945
2025-09-08 22:00: 0.0870
2025-09-09 00:00: 0.0860
2025-09-09 02:00: 0.0830
2025-09-09 04:00: 0.0765
2025-09-09 06:00: 0.0760
2025-09-09 08:00: 0.0760
2025-09-09 10:00: 0.0760
2025-09-09 12:00: 0.0760
2025-09-09 14:00: 0.0760
2025-09-09 16:00: 0.0750
2025-09-09 18:00: 0.0725
2025-09-09 20:00: 0.0750
2025-09-09 22:00: 0.0750
2025-09-10 00:00: 0.9250
2025-09-10 02:00: 0.0750
2025-09-10 04:00: 0.0750
2025-09-10 06:00: 0.0750
2025-09-10 08:00: 0.0750
2025-09-10 10:00: 0.0750
2025-09-10 12:00: 0.0750
2025-09-10 14:00: 0.0750
2025-09-10 16:00: 0.0700
2025-09-10 18:00: 0.9300
2025-09-10 20:00: 0.0700
2025-09-10 22:00: 0.0700
2025-09-11 00:00: 0.9305
2025-09-11 02:00: 0.0695
2025-09-11 04:00: 0.0695
2025-09-11 06:00: 0.0700
2025-09-11 08:00: 0.0680
2025-09-11 10:00: 0.9320
2025-09-11 12:00: 0.0670
2025-09-11 14:00: 0.9385
2025-09-11 16:00: 0.9425
2025-09-11 18:00: 0.0610
2025-09-11 20:00: 0.0610
2025-09-11 22:00: 0.9390
2025-09-12 00:00: 0.0610
2025-09-12 02:00: 0.0610
2025-09-12 04:00: 0.0610
2025-09-12 06:00: 0.0610
2025-09-12 08:00: 0.9395
2025-09-12 10:00: 0.0605
2025-09-12 12:00: 0.9390
2025-09-12 14:00: 0.0615
2025-09-12 16:00: 0.0600
Trade Summary: Total trades: 1, Buy volume: 39.00, Sell volume: 0.00, Average price: 0.9590, Price range: 0.9590 - 0.9590

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 587280
Question: Will the GreenLeft–Labour Party alliance win the fourth most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 70381.04441
Price History:
2025-09-13 04:00: 0.0570
2025-09-13 06:00: 0.0615
2025-09-13 08:00: 0.0615
2025-09-13 10:00: 0.9385
2025-09-13 12:00: 0.0680
2025-09-13 14:00: 0.0680
2025-09-13 16:00: 0.0680
2025-09-13 18:00: 0.9320
2025-09-13 20:00: 0.9320
2025-09-13 22:00: 0.0680
2025-09-14 00:00: 0.9320
2025-09-14 02:00: 0.9320
2025-09-14 04:00: 0.9320
2025-09-14 06:00: 0.9320
2025-09-14 08:00: 0.9320
2025-09-14 10:00: 0.9320
2025-09-14 12:00: 0.9320
2025-09-14 14:00: 0.9320
2025-09-14 16:00: 0.9320
2025-09-14 18:00: 0.9320
2025-09-14 20:00: 0.9320
2025-09-14 22:00: 0.9285
2025-09-15 00:00: 0.9290
2025-09-15 02:00: 0.9290
2025-09-15 04:00: 0.9290
2025-09-15 06:00: 0.0725
2025-09-15 08:00: 0.0755
2025-09-15 10:00: 0.0755
2025-09-15 12:00: 0.0750
2025-09-15 14:00: 0.0750
2025-09-15 16:00: 0.0750
2025-09-15 18:00: 0.0750
2025-09-15 20:00: 0.9335
2025-09-15 22:00: 0.0665
2025-09-16 00:00: 0.9330
2025-09-16 02:00: 0.0670
2025-09-16 04:00: 0.0660
2025-09-16 06:00: 0.0670
2025-09-16 08:00: 0.9340
2025-09-16 10:00: 0.9330
2025-09-16 12:00: 0.9335
2025-09-16 14:00: 0.0695
2025-09-16 16:00: 0.9300
2025-09-16 18:00: 0.0700
2025-09-16 20:00: 0.0700
2025-09-16 22:00: 0.0700
2025-09-17 00:00: 0.0700
2025-09-17 02:00: 0.0700
2025-09-17 04:00: 0.9310
2025-09-17 06:00: 0.9310
Trade Summary: Total trades: 1, Buy volume: 0.00, Sell volume: 410.00, Average price: 0.0608, Price range: 0.0608 - 0.0608

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 587280
Question: Will the GreenLeft–Labour Party alliance win the fourth most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 70381.04441
Price History:
2025-09-17 19:00: 0.9275
2025-09-17 21:00: 0.9275
2025-09-17 23:00: 0.9295
2025-09-18 01:00: 0.9300
2025-09-18 03:00: 0.9290
2025-09-18 05:00: 0.9300
2025-09-18 07:00: 0.0780
2025-09-18 09:00: 0.0710
2025-09-18 11:00: 0.0790
2025-09-18 13:00: 0.9270
2025-09-18 15:00: 0.0745
2025-09-18 17:00: 0.9205
2025-09-18 19:00: 0.0785
2025-09-18 21:00: 0.0800
2025-09-18 23:00: 0.0800
2025-09-19 01:00: 0.0760
2025-09-19 03:00: 0.9260
2025-09-19 05:00: 0.9210
2025-09-19 07:00: 0.0670
2025-09-19 09:00: 0.0675
2025-09-19 11:00: 0.0665
2025-09-19 13:00: 0.0665
2025-09-19 15:00: 0.0670
2025-09-19 17:00: 0.0675
2025-09-19 19:00: 0.0660
2025-09-19 21:00: 0.0670
2025-09-19 23:00: 0.9340
2025-09-20 01:00: 0.0660
2025-09-20 03:00: 0.0660
2025-09-20 05:00: 0.9335
2025-09-20 07:00: 0.9335
2025-09-20 09:00: 0.9340
2025-09-20 11:00: 0.9335
2025-09-20 13:00: 0.9335
2025-09-20 15:00: 0.9330
2025-09-20 17:00: 0.0670
2025-09-20 19:00: 0.9340
2025-09-20 21:00: 0.9340
2025-09-20 23:00: 0.9350
2025-09-21 01:00: 0.9340
2025-09-21 03:00: 0.9340
2025-09-21 05:00: 0.9325
2025-09-21 07:00: 0.9350
2025-09-21 09:00: 0.0660
2025-09-21 11:00: 0.9340
2025-09-21 13:00: 0.9365
2025-09-21 15:00: 0.9330
2025-09-21 17:00: 0.9335
2025-09-21 19:00: 0.9335
2025-09-21 21:00: 0.9315
Trade Summary: Total trades: 2, Buy volume: 46.00, Sell volume: 0.00, Average price: 0.9540, Price range: 0.9540 - 0.9540

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 587280
Question: Will the GreenLeft–Labour Party alliance win the fourth most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 70381.04441
Price History:
2025-09-22 09:00: 0.0670
2025-09-22 11:00: 0.0670
2025-09-22 13:00: 0.0685
2025-09-22 15:00: 0.0680
2025-09-22 17:00: 0.9335
2025-09-22 19:00: 0.0570
2025-09-22 21:00: 0.0555
2025-09-22 23:00: 0.0620
2025-09-23 01:00: 0.0670
2025-09-23 03:00: 0.9340
2025-09-23 05:00: 0.0645
2025-09-23 07:00: 0.9310
2025-09-23 09:00: 0.9335
2025-09-23 11:00: 0.0675
2025-09-23 13:00: 0.9350
2025-09-23 15:00: 0.9330
2025-09-23 17:00: 0.9330
2025-09-23 19:00: 0.9330
2025-09-23 21:00: 0.0670
2025-09-23 23:00: 0.9330
2025-09-24 01:00: 0.9330
2025-09-24 03:00: 0.9340
2025-09-24 05:00: 0.9375
2025-09-24 07:00: 0.0625
2025-09-24 09:00: 0.0680
2025-09-24 11:00: 0.9325
2025-09-24 13:00: 0.9325
2025-09-24 15:00: 0.0675
2025-09-24 17:00: 0.9325
2025-09-24 19:00: 0.0675
2025-09-24 21:00: 0.0675
2025-09-24 23:00: 0.9330
2025-09-25 01:00: 0.9325
2025-09-25 03:00: 0.0675
2025-09-25 05:00: 0.9340
2025-09-25 07:00: 0.0660
2025-09-25 09:00: 0.9350
2025-09-25 11:00: 0.0650
2025-09-25 13:00: 0.9350
2025-09-25 15:00: 0.9320
2025-09-25 17:00: 0.9350
2025-09-25 19:00: 0.0680
2025-09-25 21:00: 0.9320
2025-09-25 23:00: 0.0680
2025-09-26 01:00: 0.9350
2025-09-26 03:00: 0.9350
2025-09-26 05:00: 0.9370
2025-09-26 07:00: 0.9355
2025-09-26 09:00: 0.0690
2025-09-26 11:00: 0.0635
Trade Summary: Total trades: 9, Buy volume: 68.00, Sell volume: 75.99, Average price: 0.4499, Price range: 0.0460 - 0.9540

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 587280
Question: Will the GreenLeft–Labour Party alliance win the fourth most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 70381.04441
Price History:
2025-09-26 23:00: 0.9355
2025-09-27 01:00: 0.9355
2025-09-27 03:00: 0.0645
2025-09-27 05:00: 0.9320
2025-09-27 07:00: 0.9320
2025-09-27 09:00: 0.9320
2025-09-27 11:00: 0.9320
2025-09-27 13:00: 0.9330
2025-09-27 15:00: 0.9320
2025-09-27 17:00: 0.9320
2025-09-27 19:00: 0.9320
2025-09-27 21:00: 0.9330
2025-09-27 23:00: 0.0630
2025-09-28 01:00: 0.9320
2025-09-28 03:00: 0.0650
2025-09-28 05:00: 0.0635
2025-09-28 07:00: 0.0680
2025-09-28 09:00: 0.9715
2025-09-28 11:00: 0.0275
2025-09-28 13:00: 0.0270
2025-09-28 15:00: 0.0250
2025-09-28 17:00: 0.9750
2025-09-28 19:00: 0.9760
2025-09-28 21:00: 0.9760
2025-09-28 23:00: 0.0245
2025-09-29 01:00: 0.0240
2025-09-29 03:00: 0.0535
2025-09-29 05:00: 0.0535
2025-09-29 07:00: 0.0535
2025-09-29 09:00: 0.0535
2025-09-29 11:00: 0.0535
2025-09-29 13:00: 0.0535
2025-09-29 15:00: 0.9535
2025-09-29 17:00: 0.0540
2025-09-29 19:00: 0.0545
2025-09-29 21:00: 0.9460
2025-09-29 23:00: 0.0545
2025-09-30 01:00: 0.0545
2025-09-30 03:00: 0.0545
2025-09-30 05:00: 0.9460
2025-09-30 07:00: 0.0540
2025-09-30 09:00: 0.0475
2025-09-30 11:00: 0.0435
2025-09-30 13:00: 0.9555
2025-09-30 15:00: 0.9560
2025-09-30 17:00: 0.9585
2025-09-30 19:00: 0.0445
2025-09-30 21:00: 0.9575
2025-09-30 23:00: 0.0400
2025-10-01 01:00: 0.0450
Trade Summary: Total trades: 13, Buy volume: 1039.15, Sell volume: 137.00, Average price: 0.5354, Price range: 0.0234 - 0.9830

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 587280
Question: Will the GreenLeft–Labour Party alliance win the fourth most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 70381.04441
Price History:
2025-10-01 13:00: 0.0540
2025-10-01 15:00: 0.0535
2025-10-01 17:00: 0.0535
2025-10-01 19:00: 0.0535
2025-10-01 21:00: 0.9460
2025-10-01 23:00: 0.0545
2025-10-02 01:00: 0.0535
2025-10-02 03:00: 0.0535
2025-10-02 05:00: 0.0535
2025-10-02 07:00: 0.9465
2025-10-02 09:00: 0.0535
2025-10-02 11:00: 0.0535
2025-10-02 13:00: 0.9465
2025-10-02 15:00: 0.0535
2025-10-02 17:00: 0.9465
2025-10-02 19:00: 0.0535
2025-10-02 21:00: 0.9465
2025-10-02 23:00: 0.9465
2025-10-03 01:00: 0.9465
2025-10-03 03:00: 0.0535
2025-10-03 05:00: 0.0535
2025-10-03 07:00: 0.0535
2025-10-03 09:00: 0.0535
2025-10-03 11:00: 0.0535
2025-10-03 13:00: 0.0535
2025-10-03 15:00: 0.0505
2025-10-03 17:00: 0.9535
2025-10-03 19:00: 0.9530
2025-10-03 21:00: 0.9530
2025-10-03 23:00: 0.9530
2025-10-04 01:00: 0.9530
2025-10-04 03:00: 0.9530
2025-10-04 05:00: 0.0470
2025-10-04 07:00: 0.0470
2025-10-04 09:00: 0.0470
2025-10-04 11:00: 0.0470
2025-10-04 13:00: 0.0470
2025-10-04 15:00: 0.0470
2025-10-04 17:00: 0.0470
2025-10-04 19:00: 0.0470
2025-10-04 21:00: 0.9530
2025-10-04 23:00: 0.0470
2025-10-05 01:00: 0.9530
2025-10-05 03:00: 0.0470
2025-10-05 05:00: 0.9530
2025-10-05 07:00: 0.9530
2025-10-05 09:00: 0.9530
2025-10-05 11:00: 0.9545
2025-10-05 13:00: 0.9550
2025-10-05 15:00: 0.9530
Trade Summary: Total trades: 1, Buy volume: 10.00, Sell volume: 0.00, Average price: 0.9680, Price range: 0.9680 - 0.9680

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 587280
Question: Will the GreenLeft–Labour Party alliance win the fourth most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 70381.04441
Price History:
2025-10-06 03:00: 0.9530
2025-10-06 05:00: 0.9530
2025-10-06 07:00: 0.9530
2025-10-06 09:00: 0.0465
2025-10-06 11:00: 0.0460
2025-10-06 13:00: 0.0410
2025-10-06 15:00: 0.9590
2025-10-06 17:00: 0.0420
2025-10-06 19:00: 0.0425
2025-10-06 21:00: 0.0400
2025-10-06 23:00: 0.0405
2025-10-07 01:00: 0.0395
2025-10-07 03:00: 0.0400
2025-10-07 05:00: 0.9590
2025-10-07 07:00: 0.0400
2025-10-07 09:00: 0.9595
2025-10-07 11:00: 0.9595
2025-10-07 13:00: 0.9640
2025-10-07 15:00: 0.9640
2025-10-07 17:00: 0.9640
2025-10-07 19:00: 0.0360
2025-10-07 21:00: 0.9640
2025-10-07 23:00: 0.9640
2025-10-08 01:00: 0.9640
2025-10-08 03:00: 0.9650
2025-10-08 05:00: 0.0335
2025-10-08 07:00: 0.0340
2025-10-08 09:00: 0.0340
2025-10-08 11:00: 0.9630
2025-10-08 13:00: 0.9660
2025-10-08 15:00: 0.9640
2025-10-08 17:00: 0.0340
2025-10-08 19:00: 0.9655
2025-10-08 21:00: 0.0345
2025-10-08 23:00: 0.9660
2025-10-09 01:00: 0.9660
2025-10-09 03:00: 0.9655
2025-10-09 05:00: 0.0345
2025-10-09 07:00: 0.0340
2025-10-09 09:00: 0.0360
2025-10-09 11:00: 0.0370
2025-10-09 13:00: 0.0340
2025-10-09 15:00: 0.0340
2025-10-09 17:00: 0.0360
2025-10-09 19:00: 0.0365
2025-10-09 21:00: 0.0345
2025-10-09 23:00: 0.0340
2025-10-10 01:00: 0.0345
2025-10-10 03:00: 0.0340
2025-10-10 05:00: 0.9705
Trade Summary: Total trades: 4, Buy volume: 27.91, Sell volume: 10.18, Average price: 0.4992, Price range: 0.0280 - 0.9700

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 587280
Question: Will the GreenLeft–Labour Party alliance win the fourth most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 70381.04441
Price History:
2025-10-10 17:00: 0.0455
2025-10-10 19:00: 0.0455
2025-10-10 21:00: 0.0460
2025-10-10 23:00: 0.0455
2025-10-11 01:00: 0.0460
2025-10-11 03:00: 0.0455
2025-10-11 05:00: 0.0450
2025-10-11 07:00: 0.9550
2025-10-11 09:00: 0.9555
2025-10-11 11:00: 0.9565
2025-10-11 13:00: 0.9565
2025-10-11 15:00: 0.0435
2025-10-11 17:00: 0.9560
2025-10-11 19:00: 0.9565
2025-10-11 21:00: 0.0435
2025-10-11 23:00: 0.0440
2025-10-12 01:00: 0.9565
2025-10-12 03:00: 0.9565
2025-10-12 05:00: 0.9565
2025-10-12 07:00: 0.0435
2025-10-12 09:00: 0.0440
2025-10-12 11:00: 0.0450
2025-10-12 13:00: 0.9560
2025-10-12 15:00: 0.0445
2025-10-12 17:00: 0.0440
2025-10-12 19:00: 0.0445
2025-10-12 21:00: 0.0445
2025-10-12 23:00: 0.0445
2025-10-13 01:00: 0.0445
2025-10-13 03:00: 0.0445
2025-10-13 05:00: 0.0445
2025-10-13 07:00: 0.9555
2025-10-13 09:00: 0.0445
2025-10-13 11:00: 0.0460
2025-10-13 13:00: 0.9550
2025-10-13 15:00: 0.9580
2025-10-13 17:00: 0.0420
2025-10-13 19:00: 0.9585
2025-10-13 21:00: 0.9585
2025-10-13 23:00: 0.0415
2025-10-14 01:00: 0.0415
2025-10-14 03:00: 0.9585
2025-10-14 05:00: 0.0415
2025-10-14 07:00: 0.0410
2025-10-14 09:00: 0.0410
2025-10-14 11:00: 0.0410
2025-10-14 13:00: 0.0410
2025-10-14 15:00: 0.0410
2025-10-14 17:00: 0.9590
2025-10-14 19:00: 0.9590
Trade Summary: Total trades: 6, Buy volume: 138.00, Sell volume: 4.00, Average price: 0.8115, Price range: 0.0290 - 0.9691

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 587280
Question: Will the GreenLeft–Labour Party alliance win the fourth most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 70381.04441
Price History:
2025-10-15 07:00: 0.9590
2025-10-15 09:00: 0.0410
2025-10-15 11:00: 0.0410
2025-10-15 13:00: 0.0410
2025-10-15 15:00: 0.0410
2025-10-15 17:00: 0.0410
2025-10-15 19:00: 0.0405
2025-10-15 21:00: 0.9600
2025-10-15 23:00: 0.0390
2025-10-16 01:00: 0.0390
2025-10-16 03:00: 0.9610
2025-10-16 05:00: 0.0385
2025-10-16 07:00: 0.0385
2025-10-16 09:00: 0.0380
2025-10-16 11:00: 0.0380
2025-10-16 13:00: 0.9485
2025-10-16 15:00: 0.0515
2025-10-16 17:00: 0.0570
2025-10-16 19:00: 0.0735
2025-10-16 21:00: 0.8645
2025-10-16 23:00: 0.8870
2025-10-17 01:00: 0.0950
2025-10-17 03:00: 0.1240
2025-10-17 05:00: 0.1210
2025-10-17 07:00: 0.1195
2025-10-17 09:00: 0.1140
2025-10-17 11:00: 0.1140
2025-10-17 13:00: 0.0975
2025-10-17 15:00: 0.0985
2025-10-17 17:00: 0.0960
2025-10-17 19:00: 0.1065
2025-10-17 21:00: 0.0945
2025-10-17 23:00: 0.1170
2025-10-18 01:00: 0.1155
2025-10-18 03:00: 0.1160
2025-10-18 05:00: 0.9075
2025-10-18 07:00: 0.1240
2025-10-18 09:00: 0.1080
2025-10-18 11:00: 0.0870
2025-10-18 13:00: 0.1260
2025-10-18 15:00: 0.8730
2025-10-18 17:00: 0.1270
2025-10-18 19:00: 0.8730
2025-10-18 21:00: 0.8700
2025-10-18 23:00: 0.8700
2025-10-19 01:00: 0.8700
2025-10-19 03:00: 0.1300
2025-10-19 05:00: 0.1300
2025-10-19 07:00: 0.8700
2025-10-19 09:00: 0.1205
Trade Summary: Total trades: 15, Buy volume: 1049.02, Sell volume: 297.93, Average price: 0.7094, Price range: 0.0430 - 0.9690

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 587280
Question: Will the GreenLeft–Labour Party alliance win the fourth most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 70381.04441
Price History:
2025-10-19 21:00: 0.1290
2025-10-19 23:00: 0.8710
2025-10-20 01:00: 0.1290
2025-10-20 03:00: 0.8705
2025-10-20 05:00: 0.1295
2025-10-20 07:00: 0.8670
2025-10-20 09:00: 0.8670
2025-10-20 11:00: 0.8670
2025-10-20 13:00: 0.8480
2025-10-20 15:00: 0.0890
2025-10-20 17:00: 0.9105
2025-10-20 19:00: 0.8965
2025-10-20 21:00: 0.8930
2025-10-20 23:00: 0.1070
2025-10-21 01:00: 0.1065
2025-10-21 03:00: 0.1110
2025-10-21 05:00: 0.8885
2025-10-21 07:00: 0.9015
2025-10-21 09:00: 0.9140
2025-10-21 11:00: 0.9145
2025-10-21 13:00: 0.9160
2025-10-21 15:00: 0.9160
2025-10-21 17:00: 0.9160
2025-10-21 19:00: 0.9160
2025-10-21 21:00: 0.9160
2025-10-21 23:00: 0.9160
2025-10-22 01:00: 0.9160
2025-10-22 03:00: 0.0840
2025-10-22 05:00: 0.9160
2025-10-22 07:00: 0.0805
2025-10-22 09:00: 0.9360
2025-10-22 11:00: 0.9360
2025-10-22 13:00: 0.0640
2025-10-22 15:00: 0.9365
2025-10-22 17:00: 0.9365
2025-10-22 19:00: 0.9365
2025-10-22 21:00: 0.0610
2025-10-22 23:00: 0.0610
2025-10-23 01:00: 0.0610
2025-10-23 03:00: 0.9380
2025-10-23 05:00: 0.0610
2025-10-23 07:00: 0.0610
2025-10-23 09:00: 0.9390
2025-10-23 11:00: 0.9505
2025-10-23 13:00: 0.0475
2025-10-23 15:00: 0.9530
2025-10-23 17:00: 0.9545
2025-10-23 19:00: 0.9545
2025-10-23 21:00: 0.0575
2025-10-23 23:00: 0.9395
Trade Summary: Total trades: 38, Buy volume: 771.29, Sell volume: 1716.69, Average price: 0.4258, Price range: 0.0450 - 0.9550

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 587280
Question: Will the GreenLeft–Labour Party alliance win the fourth most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 70381.04441
Price History:
2025-10-24 11:00: 0.0610
2025-10-24 13:00: 0.9395
2025-10-24 15:00: 0.9395
2025-10-24 17:00: 0.9430
2025-10-24 19:00: 0.9490
2025-10-24 21:00: 0.9485
2025-10-24 23:00: 0.9485
2025-10-25 01:00: 0.9490
2025-10-25 03:00: 0.9490
2025-10-25 05:00: 0.9485
2025-10-25 07:00: 0.0515
2025-10-25 09:00: 0.9405
2025-10-25 11:00: 0.9315
2025-10-25 13:00: 0.9550
2025-10-25 15:00: 0.0450
2025-10-25 17:00: 0.9575
2025-10-25 19:00: 0.9575
2025-10-25 21:00: 0.0465
2025-10-25 23:00: 0.9595
2025-10-26 01:00: 0.9595
2025-10-26 03:00: 0.9595
2025-10-26 05:00: 0.9600
2025-10-26 07:00: 0.0515
2025-10-26 09:00: 0.9465
2025-10-26 11:00: 0.9435
2025-10-26 13:00: 0.9445
2025-10-26 15:00: 0.9480
2025-10-26 17:00: 0.9465
2025-10-26 19:00: 0.0550
2025-10-26 21:00: 0.0520
2025-10-26 23:00: 0.0520
2025-10-27 01:00: 0.0465
2025-10-27 03:00: 0.0520
2025-10-27 05:00: 0.0515
2025-10-27 07:00: 0.0515
2025-10-27 09:00: 0.0525
2025-10-27 11:00: 0.9480
2025-10-27 13:00: 0.9405
2025-10-27 15:00: 0.9410
2025-10-27 17:00: 0.9505
2025-10-27 19:00: 0.0505
2025-10-27 21:00: 0.0505
2025-10-27 23:00: 0.9495
2025-10-28 01:00: 0.9470
2025-10-28 03:00: 0.9460
2025-10-28 05:00: 0.9445
2025-10-28 07:00: 0.9465
2025-10-28 09:00: 0.9475
2025-10-28 11:00: 0.9535
2025-10-28 13:00: 0.0460
Trade Summary: Total trades: 92, Buy volume: 4963.49, Sell volume: 1262.16, Average price: 0.5151, Price range: 0.0400 - 0.9690

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 587280
Question: Will the GreenLeft–Labour Party alliance win the fourth most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 70381.04441
Price History:
2025-10-29 01:00: 0.0575
2025-10-29 03:00: 0.8790
2025-10-29 05:00: 0.0850
2025-10-29 11:00: 0.9160
2025-10-29 13:00: 0.0960
2025-10-29 15:00: 0.9090
2025-10-29 17:00: 0.6605
2025-10-29 19:00: 0.3930
2025-10-29 21:00: 0.3305
2025-10-29 23:00: 0.8850
2025-10-30 01:00: 0.8140
2025-10-30 03:00: 0.2860
2025-10-30 05:00: 0.0565
2025-10-30 07:00: 0.0665
2025-10-30 09:00: 0.5895
2025-10-30 11:00: 0.1705
2025-10-30 13:00: 0.1865
2025-10-30 15:00: 0.0215
2025-10-30 17:00: 0.0085
2025-10-30 19:00: 0.0080
2025-10-30 21:00: 0.9895
2025-10-30 23:00: 0.0135
2025-10-31 01:00: 0.0085
2025-10-31 03:00: 0.9915
2025-10-31 05:00: 0.0100
2025-10-31 07:00: 0.0135
2025-10-31 09:00: 0.0095
2025-10-31 11:00: 0.9860
2025-10-31 13:00: 0.0085
2025-10-31 15:00: 0.0060
2025-10-31 17:00: 0.0060
2025-10-31 19:00: 0.9940
2025-10-31 21:00: 0.9940
2025-10-31 23:00: 0.0090
2025-11-01 01:00: 0.0145
2025-11-01 03:00: 0.0140
2025-11-01 05:00: 0.0090
2025-11-01 07:00: 0.0075
2025-11-01 09:00: 0.9920
2025-11-01 11:00: 0.0080
2025-11-01 13:00: 0.0065
2025-11-01 15:00: 0.0065
2025-11-01 17:00: 0.0065
2025-11-01 19:00: 0.9935
2025-11-01 21:00: 0.9935
2025-11-01 23:00: 0.0065
2025-11-02 01:00: 0.0065
2025-11-02 02:00: 0.9890
2025-11-02 04:00: 0.9900
2025-11-02 06:00: 0.0105
Trade Summary: Total trades: 326, Buy volume: 38449.73, Sell volume: 14979.75, Average price: 0.6791, Price range: 0.0050 - 0.9950

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 587280
Question: Will the GreenLeft–Labour Party alliance win the fourth most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?
Volume: 70381.04441
Price History:
2025-09-04 00:00: 0.5000
2025-09-04 03:00: 0.9550
2025-09-04 07:00: 0.0500
2025-09-04 10:00: 0.9500
2025-09-04 14:00: 0.0450
2025-09-04 17:00: 0.9750
2025-09-04 21:00: 0.9765
2025-09-05 00:00: 0.0235
2025-09-05 04:00: 0.9765
2025-09-05 07:00: 0.9780
2025-09-05 11:00: 0.0220
2025-09-05 14:00: 0.9825
2025-09-05 18:00: 0.0180
2025-09-05 21:00: 0.9820
2025-09-06 01:00: 0.9815
2025-09-06 04:00: 0.0185
2025-09-06 08:00: 0.9815
2025-09-06 11:00: 0.9815
2025-09-06 15:00: 0.0185
2025-09-06 18:00: 0.0205
2025-09-06 22:00: 0.0205
2025-09-07 01:00: 0.0210
2025-09-07 05:00: 0.0270
2025-09-07 08:00: 0.9710
2025-09-07 12:00: 0.0250
2025-09-07 15:00: 0.0225
2025-09-07 19:00: 0.9770
2025-09-07 22:00: 0.8910
2025-09-08 02:00: 0.1085
2025-09-08 05:00: 0.8920
Trade Summary: Total trades: 14, Buy volume: 1639.50, Sell volume: 120.00, Average price: 0.5024, Price range: 0.0130 - 0.9800
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 587280
Question: Will the GreenLeft–Labour Party alliance win the fourth most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?
Volume: 70381.04441
Price History:
2025-09-08 14:00: 0.1055
2025-09-08 17:00: 0.8940
2025-09-08 21:00: 0.9120
2025-09-09 00:00: 0.9140
2025-09-09 04:00: 0.0765
2025-09-09 07:00: 0.9245
2025-09-09 11:00: 0.9240
2025-09-09 14:00: 0.9240
2025-09-09 18:00: 0.0725
2025-09-09 21:00: 0.9250
2025-09-10 01:00: 0.0750
2025-09-10 04:00: 0.9250
2025-09-10 08:00: 0.0750
2025-09-10 11:00: 0.9250
2025-09-10 15:00: 0.0700
2025-09-10 18:00: 0.0700
2025-09-10 22:00: 0.0700
2025-09-11 01:00: 0.9305
2025-09-11 05:00: 0.0695
2025-09-11 08:00: 0.9320
2025-09-11 12:00: 0.0670
2025-09-11 15:00: 0.9345
2025-09-11 19:00: 0.0610
2025-09-11 22:00: 0.0610
2025-09-12 02:00: 0.0610
2025-09-12 05:00: 0.0615
2025-09-12 09:00: 0.0605
2025-09-12 12:00: 0.0610
2025-09-12 16:00: 0.0600
2025-09-12 19:00: 0.0615
Trade Summary: Total trades: 1, Buy volume: 39.00, Sell volume: 0.00, Average price: 0.9590, Price range: 0.9590 - 0.9590
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 587280
Question: Will the GreenLeft–Labour Party alliance win the fourth most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?
Volume: 70381.04441
Price History:
2025-09-13 04:00: 0.0570
2025-09-13 07:00: 0.9385
2025-09-13 11:00: 0.0680
2025-09-13 14:00: 0.9320
2025-09-13 18:00: 0.9320
2025-09-13 21:00: 0.0680
2025-09-14 01:00: 0.9320
2025-09-14 04:00: 0.0680
2025-09-14 08:00: 0.9320
2025-09-14 11:00: 0.0680
2025-09-14 15:00: 0.9320
2025-09-14 18:00: 0.0680
2025-09-14 22:00: 0.9285
2025-09-15 01:00: 0.0715
2025-09-15 05:00: 0.0715
2025-09-15 08:00: 0.9245
2025-09-15 12:00: 0.0750
2025-09-15 15:00: 0.9250
2025-09-15 19:00: 0.0665
2025-09-15 22:00: 0.9335
2025-09-16 02:00: 0.0670
2025-09-16 05:00: 0.0665
2025-09-16 09:00: 0.9330
2025-09-16 12:00: 0.0665
2025-09-16 16:00: 0.9300
2025-09-16 19:00: 0.9295
2025-09-16 23:00: 0.0700
2025-09-17 02:00: 0.9300
2025-09-17 06:00: 0.9310
2025-09-17 09:00: 0.0700
Trade Summary: Total trades: 1, Buy volume: 0.00, Sell volume: 410.00, Average price: 0.0608, Price range: 0.0608 - 0.0608
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 587280
Question: Will the GreenLeft–Labour Party alliance win the fourth most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?
Volume: 70381.04441
Price History:
2025-09-17 19:00: 0.9275
2025-09-17 22:00: 0.9290
2025-09-18 02:00: 0.9295
2025-09-18 05:00: 0.0700
2025-09-18 09:00: 0.0710
2025-09-18 12:00: 0.9230
2025-09-18 16:00: 0.0790
2025-09-18 19:00: 0.9215
2025-09-18 23:00: 0.0800
2025-09-19 02:00: 0.9240
2025-09-19 06:00: 0.0700
2025-09-19 09:00: 0.9325
2025-09-19 13:00: 0.0665
2025-09-19 16:00: 0.0660
2025-09-19 20:00: 0.9320
2025-09-19 23:00: 0.0660
2025-09-20 03:00: 0.0660
2025-09-20 06:00: 0.0660
2025-09-20 10:00: 0.9340
2025-09-20 13:00: 0.0665
2025-09-20 17:00: 0.0670
2025-09-20 20:00: 0.0660
2025-09-21 00:00: 0.9335
2025-09-21 03:00: 0.0660
2025-09-21 07:00: 0.9350
2025-09-21 10:00: 0.0640
2025-09-21 14:00: 0.9340
2025-09-21 17:00: 0.0665
2025-09-21 21:00: 0.9315
2025-09-22 00:00: 0.0680
Trade Summary: Total trades: 2, Buy volume: 46.00, Sell volume: 0.00, Average price: 0.9540, Price range: 0.9540 - 0.9540
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 587280
Question: Will the GreenLeft–Labour Party alliance win the fourth most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?
Volume: 70381.04441
Price History:
2025-09-22 09:00: 0.0670
2025-09-22 12:00: 0.9330
2025-09-22 16:00: 0.0680
2025-09-22 19:00: 0.9430
2025-09-22 23:00: 0.0620
2025-09-23 02:00: 0.9340
2025-09-23 06:00: 0.0600
2025-09-23 09:00: 0.0665
2025-09-23 13:00: 0.9350
2025-09-23 16:00: 0.9340
2025-09-23 20:00: 0.9345
2025-09-23 23:00: 0.0670
2025-09-24 03:00: 0.9340
2025-09-24 06:00: 0.9380
2025-09-24 10:00: 0.9325
2025-09-24 13:00: 0.0675
2025-09-24 17:00: 0.9325
2025-09-24 20:00: 0.9325
2025-09-25 00:00: 0.0675
2025-09-25 03:00: 0.9325
2025-09-25 07:00: 0.0660
2025-09-25 10:00: 0.0650
2025-09-25 14:00: 0.0690
2025-09-25 17:00: 0.0650
2025-09-25 21:00: 0.9320
2025-09-26 00:00: 0.0660
2025-09-26 04:00: 0.0680
2025-09-26 07:00: 0.0645
2025-09-26 11:00: 0.0635
2025-09-26 14:00: 0.9310
Trade Summary: Total trades: 9, Buy volume: 68.00, Sell volume: 75.99, Average price: 0.4499, Price range: 0.0460 - 0.9540
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 587280
Question: Will the GreenLeft–Labour Party alliance win the fourth most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?
Volume: 70381.04441
Price History:
2025-09-26 23:00: 0.9355
2025-09-27 02:00: 0.0645
2025-09-27 06:00: 0.9320
2025-09-27 09:00: 0.0680
2025-09-27 13:00: 0.9330
2025-09-27 16:00: 0.0640
2025-09-27 20:00: 0.0670
2025-09-27 23:00: 0.9370
2025-09-28 03:00: 0.0650
2025-09-28 06:00: 0.9360
2025-09-28 10:00: 0.0265
2025-09-28 13:00: 0.9730
2025-09-28 17:00: 0.9750
2025-09-28 20:00: 0.9760
2025-09-29 00:00: 0.9760
2025-09-29 03:00: 0.9465
2025-09-29 07:00: 0.0535
2025-09-29 10:00: 0.9465
2025-09-29 14:00: 0.0535
2025-09-29 17:00: 0.9460
2025-09-29 21:00: 0.9460
2025-09-30 00:00: 0.9450
2025-09-30 04:00: 0.0545
2025-09-30 07:00: 0.9460
2025-09-30 11:00: 0.0435
2025-09-30 14:00: 0.9555
2025-09-30 18:00: 0.9570
2025-09-30 21:00: 0.0425
2025-10-01 01:00: 0.0450
2025-10-01 04:00: 0.9565
Trade Summary: Total trades: 13, Buy volume: 1039.15, Sell volume: 137.00, Average price: 0.5354, Price range: 0.0234 - 0.9830
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 587280
Question: Will the GreenLeft–Labour Party alliance win the fourth most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?
Volume: 70381.04441
Price History:
2025-10-01 13:00: 0.0540
2025-10-01 16:00: 0.9465
2025-10-01 20:00: 0.9465
2025-10-01 23:00: 0.9455
2025-10-02 03:00: 0.0535
2025-10-02 06:00: 0.0535
2025-10-02 10:00: 0.0535
2025-10-02 13:00: 0.0535
2025-10-02 17:00: 0.9465
2025-10-02 20:00: 0.9465
2025-10-03 00:00: 0.0535
2025-10-03 03:00: 0.9465
2025-10-03 07:00: 0.0535
2025-10-03 10:00: 0.0535
2025-10-03 14:00: 0.9475
2025-10-03 17:00: 0.0465
2025-10-03 21:00: 0.9530
2025-10-04 00:00: 0.0470
2025-10-04 04:00: 0.9530
2025-10-04 07:00: 0.9530
2025-10-04 11:00: 0.0470
2025-10-04 14:00: 0.9530
2025-10-04 18:00: 0.0470
2025-10-04 21:00: 0.0470
2025-10-05 01:00: 0.9530
2025-10-05 04:00: 0.9530
2025-10-05 08:00: 0.9530
2025-10-05 11:00: 0.0455
2025-10-05 15:00: 0.9530
2025-10-05 18:00: 0.0470
Trade Summary: Total trades: 1, Buy volume: 10.00, Sell volume: 0.00, Average price: 0.9680, Price range: 0.9680 - 0.9680
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 587280
Question: Will the GreenLeft–Labour Party alliance win the fourth most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?
Volume: 70381.04441
Price History:
2025-10-06 03:00: 0.9530
2025-10-06 06:00: 0.9530
2025-10-06 10:00: 0.0465
2025-10-06 13:00: 0.9590
2025-10-06 17:00: 0.0420
2025-10-06 20:00: 0.0405
2025-10-07 00:00: 0.0400
2025-10-07 03:00: 0.9600
2025-10-07 07:00: 0.0400
2025-10-07 10:00: 0.9590
2025-10-07 14:00: 0.9640
2025-10-07 17:00: 0.0360
2025-10-07 21:00: 0.9640
2025-10-08 00:00: 0.0360
2025-10-08 04:00: 0.9665
2025-10-08 07:00: 0.9660
2025-10-08 11:00: 0.9630
2025-10-08 14:00: 0.0345
2025-10-08 18:00: 0.9660
2025-10-08 21:00: 0.9655
2025-10-09 01:00: 0.9660
2025-10-09 04:00: 0.0340
2025-10-09 08:00: 0.0350
2025-10-09 11:00: 0.9630
2025-10-09 15:00: 0.0340
2025-10-09 18:00: 0.9640
2025-10-09 22:00: 0.0345
2025-10-10 01:00: 0.9655
2025-10-10 05:00: 0.9705
2025-10-10 08:00: 0.0335
Trade Summary: Total trades: 4, Buy volume: 27.91, Sell volume: 10.18, Average price: 0.4992, Price range: 0.0280 - 0.9700
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 587280
Question: Will the GreenLeft–Labour Party alliance win the fourth most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?
Volume: 70381.04441
Price History:
2025-10-10 17:00: 0.0455
2025-10-10 20:00: 0.9535
2025-10-11 00:00: 0.0455
2025-10-11 03:00: 0.9545
2025-10-11 07:00: 0.9550
2025-10-11 10:00: 0.9560
2025-10-11 14:00: 0.9560
2025-10-11 17:00: 0.0440
2025-10-11 21:00: 0.0435
2025-10-12 00:00: 0.0435
2025-10-12 04:00: 0.9560
2025-10-12 07:00: 0.9565
2025-10-12 11:00: 0.0450
2025-10-12 14:00: 0.9555
2025-10-12 18:00: 0.0440
2025-10-12 21:00: 0.9555
2025-10-13 01:00: 0.0445
2025-10-13 04:00: 0.9555
2025-10-13 08:00: 0.0445
2025-10-13 11:00: 0.9540
2025-10-13 15:00: 0.9580
2025-10-13 18:00: 0.9580
2025-10-13 22:00: 0.9585
2025-10-14 01:00: 0.9585
2025-10-14 05:00: 0.0415
2025-10-14 08:00: 0.9590
2025-10-14 12:00: 0.0410
2025-10-14 15:00: 0.9590
2025-10-14 19:00: 0.9590
2025-10-14 22:00: 0.9585
Trade Summary: Total trades: 6, Buy volume: 138.00, Sell volume: 4.00, Average price: 0.8115, Price range: 0.0290 - 0.9691
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 587280
Question: Will the GreenLeft–Labour Party alliance win the fourth most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?
Volume: 70381.04441
Price History:
2025-10-15 07:00: 0.9590
2025-10-15 10:00: 0.0410
2025-10-15 14:00: 0.0410
2025-10-15 17:00: 0.9590
2025-10-15 21:00: 0.9600
2025-10-16 00:00: 0.9610
2025-10-16 04:00: 0.0390
2025-10-16 07:00: 0.9615
2025-10-16 11:00: 0.0380
2025-10-16 14:00: 0.9485
2025-10-16 18:00: 0.0655
2025-10-16 21:00: 0.1355
2025-10-17 01:00: 0.0950
2025-10-17 04:00: 0.1210
2025-10-17 08:00: 0.1125
2025-10-17 11:00: 0.8860
2025-10-17 15:00: 0.0985
2025-10-17 18:00: 0.9050
2025-10-17 22:00: 0.9000
2025-10-18 01:00: 0.8845
2025-10-18 05:00: 0.9075
2025-10-18 08:00: 0.1075
2025-10-18 12:00: 0.9030
2025-10-18 15:00: 0.1270
2025-10-18 19:00: 0.8730
2025-10-18 22:00: 0.8700
2025-10-19 02:00: 0.8700
2025-10-19 05:00: 0.8700
2025-10-19 09:00: 0.1205
2025-10-19 12:00: 0.1180
Trade Summary: Total trades: 15, Buy volume: 1049.02, Sell volume: 297.93, Average price: 0.7094, Price range: 0.0430 - 0.9690
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 587280
Question: Will the GreenLeft–Labour Party alliance win the fourth most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?
Volume: 70381.04441
Price History:
2025-10-19 21:00: 0.1290
2025-10-20 00:00: 0.1290
2025-10-20 04:00: 0.1295
2025-10-20 07:00: 0.1330
2025-10-20 11:00: 0.8670
2025-10-20 14:00: 0.0945
2025-10-20 18:00: 0.9050
2025-10-20 21:00: 0.1070
2025-10-21 01:00: 0.1065
2025-10-21 04:00: 0.8885
2025-10-21 08:00: 0.0860
2025-10-21 11:00: 0.0855
2025-10-21 15:00: 0.9160
2025-10-21 18:00: 0.0840
2025-10-21 22:00: 0.9160
2025-10-22 01:00: 0.0840
2025-10-22 05:00: 0.9160
2025-10-22 08:00: 0.0640
2025-10-22 12:00: 0.9360
2025-10-22 15:00: 0.0635
2025-10-22 19:00: 0.9365
2025-10-22 22:00: 0.9380
2025-10-23 02:00: 0.0610
2025-10-23 05:00: 0.9390
2025-10-23 09:00: 0.9390
2025-10-23 12:00: 0.9530
2025-10-23 16:00: 0.0470
2025-10-23 19:00: 0.0455
2025-10-23 23:00: 0.9395
2025-10-24 02:00: 0.0600
Trade Summary: Total trades: 38, Buy volume: 771.29, Sell volume: 1716.69, Average price: 0.4258, Price range: 0.0450 - 0.9550
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 587280
Question: Will the GreenLeft–Labour Party alliance win the fourth most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?
Volume: 70381.04441
Price History:
2025-10-24 11:00: 0.0610
2025-10-24 14:00: 0.0605
2025-10-24 18:00: 0.9430
2025-10-24 21:00: 0.0515
2025-10-25 01:00: 0.9490
2025-10-25 04:00: 0.0515
2025-10-25 08:00: 0.9395
2025-10-25 11:00: 0.0685
2025-10-25 15:00: 0.0450
2025-10-25 18:00: 0.0435
2025-10-25 22:00: 0.0405
2025-10-26 01:00: 0.0405
2025-10-26 05:00: 0.9600
2025-10-26 08:00: 0.9500
2025-10-26 12:00: 0.9440
2025-10-26 15:00: 0.0520
2025-10-26 19:00: 0.0550
2025-10-26 22:00: 0.9515
2025-10-27 02:00: 0.9485
2025-10-27 05:00: 0.9485
2025-10-27 09:00: 0.0525
2025-10-27 12:00: 0.9425
2025-10-27 16:00: 0.9410
2025-10-27 19:00: 0.9495
2025-10-27 23:00: 0.9495
2025-10-28 02:00: 0.0530
2025-10-28 06:00: 0.9445
2025-10-28 09:00: 0.0525
2025-10-28 13:00: 0.0460
2025-10-28 16:00: 0.8940
Trade Summary: Total trades: 92, Buy volume: 4963.49, Sell volume: 1262.16, Average price: 0.5151, Price range: 0.0400 - 0.9690
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 587280
Question: Will the GreenLeft–Labour Party alliance win the fourth most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?
Volume: 70381.04441
Price History:
2025-10-29 01:00: 0.0575
2025-10-29 04:00: 0.8685
2025-10-29 12:00: 0.0920
2025-10-29 15:00: 0.0910
2025-10-29 19:00: 0.3930
2025-10-29 22:00: 0.1290
2025-10-30 02:00: 0.1995
2025-10-30 05:00: 0.9435
2025-10-30 09:00: 0.5895
2025-10-30 12:00: 0.7685
2025-10-30 16:00: 0.0080
2025-10-30 19:00: 0.9920
2025-10-30 23:00: 0.0135
2025-10-31 02:00: 0.9915
2025-10-31 06:00: 0.9900
2025-10-31 09:00: 0.9905
2025-10-31 13:00: 0.0085
2025-10-31 16:00: 0.9940
2025-10-31 20:00: 0.0060
2025-10-31 23:00: 0.9910
2025-11-01 03:00: 0.0140
2025-11-01 06:00: 0.9925
2025-11-01 10:00: 0.9910
2025-11-01 13:00: 0.9935
2025-11-01 17:00: 0.0065
2025-11-01 20:00: 0.9935
2025-11-02 00:00: 0.0065
2025-11-02 02:00: 0.0110
2025-11-02 06:00: 0.0105
2025-11-02 09:00: 0.9880
Trade Summary: Total trades: 326, Buy volume: 38449.73, Sell volume: 14979.75, Average price: 0.6791, Price range: 0.0050 - 0.9950
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike, wash_trading

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 587282
Question: Will the Forum for Democracy win the fourth most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 38857.661351
Price History:
2025-09-04 00:00: 0.5000
2025-09-04 02:00: 0.0450
2025-09-04 04:00: 0.0450
2025-09-04 06:00: 0.0450
2025-09-04 08:00: 0.9550
2025-09-04 10:00: 0.9550
2025-09-04 12:00: 0.9550
2025-09-04 14:00: 0.0450
2025-09-04 16:00: 0.0180
2025-09-04 18:00: 0.9810
2025-09-04 20:00: 0.0190
2025-09-04 22:00: 0.9810
2025-09-05 00:00: 0.0190
2025-09-05 02:00: 0.9810
2025-09-05 04:00: 0.0190
2025-09-05 06:00: 0.9810
2025-09-05 08:00: 0.9810
2025-09-05 10:00: 0.9810
2025-09-05 12:00: 0.0230
2025-09-05 14:00: 0.9765
2025-09-05 16:00: 0.9795
2025-09-05 18:00: 0.9805
2025-09-05 20:00: 0.9810
2025-09-05 22:00: 0.9805
2025-09-06 00:00: 0.9795
2025-09-06 02:00: 0.0220
2025-09-06 04:00: 0.0235
2025-09-06 06:00: 0.9760
2025-09-06 08:00: 0.9755
2025-09-06 10:00: 0.9755
2025-09-06 12:00: 0.9760
2025-09-06 14:00: 0.9775
2025-09-06 16:00: 0.9770
2025-09-06 18:00: 0.9770
2025-09-06 20:00: 0.9780
2025-09-06 22:00: 0.0225
2025-09-07 00:00: 0.9775
2025-09-07 02:00: 0.9770
2025-09-07 04:00: 0.9785
2025-09-07 06:00: 0.0215
2025-09-07 08:00: 0.0220
2025-09-07 10:00: 0.9780
2025-09-07 12:00: 0.0215
2025-09-07 14:00: 0.9815
2025-09-07 16:00: 0.0185
2025-09-07 18:00: 0.9815
2025-09-07 20:00: 0.9815
2025-09-07 22:00: 0.0185
2025-09-08 00:00: 0.9815
2025-09-08 02:00: 0.0185
Trade Summary: Total trades: 18, Buy volume: 458.46, Sell volume: 140.46, Average price: 0.6646, Price range: 0.0190 - 0.9900

Output: No


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 587282
Question: Will the Forum for Democracy win the fourth most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 38857.661351
Price History:
2025-09-08 14:00: 0.0185
2025-09-08 16:00: 0.0185
2025-09-08 18:00: 0.9815
2025-09-08 20:00: 0.9815
2025-09-08 22:00: 0.9815
2025-09-09 00:00: 0.9815
2025-09-09 02:00: 0.9815
2025-09-09 04:00: 0.9815
2025-09-09 06:00: 0.9815
2025-09-09 08:00: 0.0185
2025-09-09 10:00: 0.9815
2025-09-09 12:00: 0.0185
2025-09-09 14:00: 0.0185
2025-09-09 16:00: 0.0185
2025-09-09 18:00: 0.0185
2025-09-09 20:00: 0.9815
2025-09-09 22:00: 0.0185
2025-09-10 00:00: 0.0185
2025-09-10 02:00: 0.0185
2025-09-10 04:00: 0.9815
2025-09-10 06:00: 0.0185
2025-09-10 08:00: 0.9815
2025-09-10 10:00: 0.0185
2025-09-10 12:00: 0.9815
2025-09-10 14:00: 0.9815
2025-09-10 16:00: 0.0185
2025-09-10 18:00: 0.0185
2025-09-10 20:00: 0.9815
2025-09-10 22:00: 0.0185
2025-09-11 00:00: 0.0185
2025-09-11 02:00: 0.0185
2025-09-11 04:00: 0.0185
2025-09-11 06:00: 0.9815
2025-09-11 08:00: 0.9815
2025-09-11 10:00: 0.0185
2025-09-11 12:00: 0.0185
2025-09-11 14:00: 0.9830
2025-09-11 16:00: 0.9830
2025-09-11 18:00: 0.0170
2025-09-11 20:00: 0.9830
2025-09-11 22:00: 0.9830
2025-09-12 00:00: 0.0170
2025-09-12 02:00: 0.9830
2025-09-12 04:00: 0.9830
2025-09-12 06:00: 0.9830
2025-09-12 08:00: 0.9830
2025-09-12 10:00: 0.9830
2025-09-12 12:00: 0.9830
2025-09-12 14:00: 0.9830
2025-09-12 16:00: 0.9830
Trade Summary: Total trades: 4, Buy volume: 546.12, Sell volume: 0.00, Average price: 0.9832, Price range: 0.9830 - 0.9840

Output: No


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 587282
Question: Will the Forum for Democracy win the fourth most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 38857.661351
Price History:
2025-09-13 04:00: 0.9830
2025-09-13 06:00: 0.9830
2025-09-13 08:00: 0.9830
2025-09-13 10:00: 0.0170
2025-09-13 12:00: 0.0170
2025-09-13 14:00: 0.0170
2025-09-13 16:00: 0.0170
2025-09-13 18:00: 0.9830
2025-09-13 20:00: 0.9830
2025-09-13 22:00: 0.9830
2025-09-14 00:00: 0.0170
2025-09-14 02:00: 0.0170
2025-09-14 04:00: 0.0170
2025-09-14 06:00: 0.9830
2025-09-14 08:00: 0.0170
2025-09-14 10:00: 0.0170
2025-09-14 12:00: 0.0170
2025-09-14 14:00: 0.0170
2025-09-14 16:00: 0.9830
2025-09-14 18:00: 0.0170
2025-09-14 20:00: 0.9830
2025-09-14 22:00: 0.9830
2025-09-15 00:00: 0.9830
2025-09-15 02:00: 0.9830
2025-09-15 04:00: 0.9830
2025-09-15 06:00: 0.9830
2025-09-15 08:00: 0.9830
2025-09-15 10:00: 0.0170
2025-09-15 12:00: 0.0170
2025-09-15 14:00: 0.9830
2025-09-15 16:00: 0.0170
2025-09-15 18:00: 0.9830
2025-09-15 20:00: 0.0135
2025-09-15 22:00: 0.9865
2025-09-16 00:00: 0.0135
2025-09-16 02:00: 0.9860
2025-09-16 04:00: 0.0130
2025-09-16 06:00: 0.9880
2025-09-16 08:00: 0.9865
2025-09-16 10:00: 0.9870
2025-09-16 12:00: 0.0130
2025-09-16 14:00: 0.9870
2025-09-16 16:00: 0.9870
2025-09-16 18:00: 0.9865
2025-09-16 20:00: 0.9870
2025-09-16 22:00: 0.9860
2025-09-17 00:00: 0.9865
2025-09-17 02:00: 0.9870
2025-09-17 04:00: 0.9880
2025-09-17 06:00: 0.0130
Trade Summary: Total trades: 3, Buy volume: 240.94, Sell volume: 124.06, Average price: 0.6623, Price range: 0.0150 - 0.9870

Output: No


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 587282
Question: Will the Forum for Democracy win the fourth most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 38857.661351
Price History:
2025-09-17 19:00: 0.0110
2025-09-17 21:00: 0.0110
2025-09-17 23:00: 0.9890
2025-09-18 01:00: 0.9890
2025-09-18 03:00: 0.0110
2025-09-18 05:00: 0.0110
2025-09-18 07:00: 0.0110
2025-09-18 09:00: 0.0110
2025-09-18 11:00: 0.0110
2025-09-18 13:00: 0.9890
2025-09-18 15:00: 0.9890
2025-09-18 17:00: 0.9890
2025-09-18 19:00: 0.0110
2025-09-18 21:00: 0.9890
2025-09-18 23:00: 0.9890
2025-09-19 01:00: 0.0110
2025-09-19 03:00: 0.9890
2025-09-19 05:00: 0.9890
2025-09-19 07:00: 0.9890
2025-09-19 09:00: 0.0110
2025-09-19 11:00: 0.9890
2025-09-19 13:00: 0.9890
2025-09-19 15:00: 0.0110
2025-09-19 17:00: 0.9890
2025-09-19 19:00: 0.0110
2025-09-19 21:00: 0.9890
2025-09-19 23:00: 0.9890
2025-09-20 01:00: 0.9890
2025-09-20 03:00: 0.0110
2025-09-20 05:00: 0.9890
2025-09-20 07:00: 0.0110
2025-09-20 09:00: 0.0100
2025-09-20 11:00: 0.9900
2025-09-20 13:00: 0.9900
2025-09-20 15:00: 0.0100
2025-09-20 17:00: 0.0100
2025-09-20 19:00: 0.9900
2025-09-20 21:00: 0.0100
2025-09-20 23:00: 0.0100
2025-09-21 01:00: 0.0100
2025-09-21 03:00: 0.0100
2025-09-21 05:00: 0.9900
2025-09-21 07:00: 0.9900
2025-09-21 09:00: 0.0100
2025-09-21 11:00: 0.9900
2025-09-21 13:00: 0.0100
2025-09-21 15:00: 0.9900
2025-09-21 17:00: 0.9900
2025-09-21 19:00: 0.9900
2025-09-21 21:00: 0.9910
Trade Summary: Total trades: 3, Buy volume: 51.44, Sell volume: 0.00, Average price: 0.9920, Price range: 0.9920 - 0.9920

Output: No


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 587282
Question: Will the Forum for Democracy win the fourth most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 38857.661351
Price History:
2025-09-22 09:00: 0.0090
2025-09-22 11:00: 0.0090
2025-09-22 13:00: 0.0090
2025-09-22 15:00: 0.0085
2025-09-22 17:00: 0.0085
2025-09-22 19:00: 0.0085
2025-09-22 21:00: 0.0085
2025-09-22 23:00: 0.0085
2025-09-23 01:00: 0.0085
2025-09-23 03:00: 0.0085
2025-09-23 05:00: 0.0085
2025-09-23 07:00: 0.0085
2025-09-23 09:00: 0.0085
2025-09-23 11:00: 0.0085
2025-09-23 13:00: 0.9915
2025-09-23 15:00: 0.9915
2025-09-23 17:00: 0.9915
2025-09-23 19:00: 0.9915
2025-09-23 21:00: 0.9915
2025-09-23 23:00: 0.0085
2025-09-24 01:00: 0.0085
2025-09-24 03:00: 0.9915
2025-09-24 05:00: 0.9915
2025-09-24 07:00: 0.9915
2025-09-24 09:00: 0.9915
2025-09-24 11:00: 0.9915
2025-09-24 13:00: 0.0085
2025-09-24 15:00: 0.9915
2025-09-24 17:00: 0.9915
2025-09-24 19:00: 0.9915
2025-09-24 21:00: 0.0085
2025-09-24 23:00: 0.0085
2025-09-25 01:00: 0.9915
2025-09-25 03:00: 0.9915
2025-09-25 05:00: 0.0085
2025-09-25 07:00: 0.0085
2025-09-25 09:00: 0.9915
2025-09-25 11:00: 0.0080
2025-09-25 13:00: 0.9920
2025-09-25 15:00: 0.0090
2025-09-25 17:00: 0.9910
2025-09-25 19:00: 0.0090
2025-09-25 21:00: 0.0090
2025-09-25 23:00: 0.0090
2025-09-26 01:00: 0.0090
2025-09-26 03:00: 0.9910
2025-09-26 05:00: 0.9910
2025-09-26 07:00: 0.0090
2025-09-26 09:00: 0.0090
2025-09-26 11:00: 0.9910
Trade Summary: Total trades: 8, Buy volume: 68.00, Sell volume: 36.99, Average price: 0.4999, Price range: 0.0070 - 0.9930

Output: No


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 587282
Question: Will the Forum for Democracy win the fourth most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 38857.661351
Price History:
2025-09-26 23:00: 0.9920
2025-09-27 01:00: 0.0080
2025-09-27 03:00: 0.0080
2025-09-27 05:00: 0.0080
2025-09-27 07:00: 0.9920
2025-09-27 09:00: 0.9920
2025-09-27 11:00: 0.9920
2025-09-27 13:00: 0.0090
2025-09-27 15:00: 0.9910
2025-09-27 17:00: 0.9910
2025-09-27 19:00: 0.9910
2025-09-27 21:00: 0.9915
2025-09-27 23:00: 0.9915
2025-09-28 01:00: 0.9915
2025-09-28 03:00: 0.9915
2025-09-28 05:00: 0.9915
2025-09-28 07:00: 0.0095
2025-09-28 09:00: 0.9930
2025-09-28 11:00: 0.9930
2025-09-28 13:00: 0.9940
2025-09-28 15:00: 0.9940
2025-09-28 17:00: 0.9940
2025-09-28 19:00: 0.9940
2025-09-28 21:00: 0.9940
2025-09-28 23:00: 0.9940
2025-09-29 01:00: 0.0060
2025-09-29 03:00: 0.9940
2025-09-29 05:00: 0.0060
2025-09-29 07:00: 0.9940
2025-09-29 09:00: 0.9940
2025-09-29 11:00: 0.9940
2025-09-29 13:00: 0.9935
2025-09-29 15:00: 0.9935
2025-09-29 17:00: 0.0065
2025-09-29 19:00: 0.0065
2025-09-29 21:00: 0.0060
2025-09-29 23:00: 0.0060
2025-09-30 01:00: 0.0060
2025-09-30 03:00: 0.0060
2025-09-30 05:00: 0.0060
2025-09-30 07:00: 0.0060
2025-09-30 09:00: 0.0060
2025-09-30 11:00: 0.0060
2025-09-30 13:00: 0.0060
2025-09-30 15:00: 0.0060
2025-09-30 17:00: 0.0060
2025-09-30 19:00: 0.9945
2025-09-30 21:00: 0.9945
2025-09-30 23:00: 0.0055
2025-10-01 01:00: 0.0055
Trade Summary: Total trades: 14, Buy volume: 571.69, Sell volume: 151.01, Average price: 0.3593, Price range: 0.0020 - 0.9980

Output: No


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 587282
Question: Will the Forum for Democracy win the fourth most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 38857.661351
Price History:
2025-10-01 13:00: 0.0055
2025-10-01 15:00: 0.0055
2025-10-01 17:00: 0.0055
2025-10-01 19:00: 0.0055
2025-10-01 21:00: 0.0055
2025-10-01 23:00: 0.9945
2025-10-02 01:00: 0.9945
2025-10-02 03:00: 0.9945
2025-10-02 05:00: 0.9945
2025-10-02 07:00: 0.0055
2025-10-02 09:00: 0.9950
2025-10-02 11:00: 0.0050
2025-10-02 13:00: 0.9950
2025-10-02 15:00: 0.9950
2025-10-02 17:00: 0.9950
2025-10-02 19:00: 0.9935
2025-10-02 21:00: 0.9935
2025-10-02 23:00: 0.9935
2025-10-03 01:00: 0.9935
2025-10-03 03:00: 0.9935
2025-10-03 05:00: 0.0065
2025-10-03 07:00: 0.9865
2025-10-03 09:00: 0.9865
2025-10-03 11:00: 0.0135
2025-10-03 13:00: 0.0135
2025-10-03 15:00: 0.0135
2025-10-03 17:00: 0.9865
2025-10-03 19:00: 0.9830
2025-10-03 21:00: 0.9830
2025-10-03 23:00: 0.9830
2025-10-04 01:00: 0.9830
2025-10-04 03:00: 0.9830
2025-10-04 05:00: 0.0170
2025-10-04 07:00: 0.0170
2025-10-04 09:00: 0.0170
2025-10-04 11:00: 0.0170
2025-10-04 13:00: 0.0170
2025-10-04 15:00: 0.0170
2025-10-04 17:00: 0.9830
2025-10-04 19:00: 0.0170
2025-10-04 21:00: 0.0160
2025-10-04 23:00: 0.0160
2025-10-05 01:00: 0.0160
2025-10-05 03:00: 0.9840
2025-10-05 05:00: 0.0160
2025-10-05 07:00: 0.0160
2025-10-05 09:00: 0.0170
2025-10-05 11:00: 0.0170
2025-10-05 13:00: 0.0170
2025-10-05 15:00: 0.0170
Trade Summary: Total trades: 6, Buy volume: 1832.84, Sell volume: 12.00, Average price: 0.1791, Price range: 0.0030 - 0.9960

Output: No


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 587282
Question: Will the Forum for Democracy win the fourth most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 38857.661351
Price History:
2025-10-06 03:00: 0.0165
2025-10-06 05:00: 0.0165
2025-10-06 07:00: 0.0165
2025-10-06 09:00: 0.9835
2025-10-06 11:00: 0.9835
2025-10-06 13:00: 0.9835
2025-10-06 15:00: 0.0165
2025-10-06 17:00: 0.9835
2025-10-06 19:00: 0.9835
2025-10-06 21:00: 0.9840
2025-10-06 23:00: 0.0160
2025-10-07 01:00: 0.0160
2025-10-07 03:00: 0.9840
2025-10-07 05:00: 0.9840
2025-10-07 07:00: 0.9840
2025-10-07 09:00: 0.9840
2025-10-07 11:00: 0.9840
2025-10-07 13:00: 0.9840
2025-10-07 15:00: 0.9840
2025-10-07 17:00: 0.9840
2025-10-07 19:00: 0.9840
2025-10-07 21:00: 0.9840
2025-10-07 23:00: 0.9840
2025-10-08 01:00: 0.9840
2025-10-08 03:00: 0.9840
2025-10-08 05:00: 0.9840
2025-10-08 07:00: 0.9840
2025-10-08 09:00: 0.9830
2025-10-08 11:00: 0.0170
2025-10-08 13:00: 0.0165
2025-10-08 15:00: 0.0165
2025-10-08 17:00: 0.9835
2025-10-08 19:00: 0.9835
2025-10-08 21:00: 0.9835
2025-10-08 23:00: 0.0165
2025-10-09 01:00: 0.9835
2025-10-09 03:00: 0.0160
2025-10-09 05:00: 0.9840
2025-10-09 07:00: 0.0165
2025-10-09 09:00: 0.0165
2025-10-09 11:00: 0.0165
2025-10-09 13:00: 0.9835
2025-10-09 15:00: 0.9835
2025-10-09 17:00: 0.0165
2025-10-09 19:00: 0.0165
2025-10-09 21:00: 0.0165
2025-10-09 23:00: 0.9835
2025-10-10 01:00: 0.0165
2025-10-10 03:00: 0.0170
2025-10-10 05:00: 0.0145
Trade Summary: Total trades: 3, Buy volume: 27.91, Sell volume: 5.09, Average price: 0.6643, Price range: 0.0070 - 0.9930

Output: No


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 587282
Question: Will the Forum for Democracy win the fourth most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 38857.661351
Price History:
2025-10-10 17:00: 0.0140
2025-10-10 19:00: 0.0120
2025-10-10 21:00: 0.0125
2025-10-10 23:00: 0.9875
2025-10-11 01:00: 0.0120
2025-10-11 03:00: 0.9875
2025-10-11 05:00: 0.0125
2025-10-11 07:00: 0.0125
2025-10-11 09:00: 0.0125
2025-10-11 11:00: 0.0125
2025-10-11 13:00: 0.0120
2025-10-11 15:00: 0.0120
2025-10-11 17:00: 0.0120
2025-10-11 19:00: 0.0170
2025-10-11 21:00: 0.9830
2025-10-11 23:00: 0.9825
2025-10-12 01:00: 0.0175
2025-10-12 03:00: 0.0180
2025-10-12 05:00: 0.9820
2025-10-12 07:00: 0.9820
2025-10-12 09:00: 0.9825
2025-10-12 11:00: 0.9825
2025-10-12 13:00: 0.9825
2025-10-12 15:00: 0.9825
2025-10-12 17:00: 0.9825
2025-10-12 19:00: 0.9860
2025-10-12 21:00: 0.9860
2025-10-12 23:00: 0.9860
2025-10-13 01:00: 0.0140
2025-10-13 03:00: 0.9860
2025-10-13 05:00: 0.9860
2025-10-13 07:00: 0.9860
2025-10-13 09:00: 0.9860
2025-10-13 11:00: 0.9865
2025-10-13 13:00: 0.9865
2025-10-13 15:00: 0.9865
2025-10-13 17:00: 0.9875
2025-10-13 19:00: 0.9875
2025-10-13 21:00: 0.9875
2025-10-13 23:00: 0.9875
2025-10-14 01:00: 0.9875
2025-10-14 03:00: 0.9875
2025-10-14 05:00: 0.0125
2025-10-14 07:00: 0.0125
2025-10-14 09:00: 0.0120
2025-10-14 11:00: 0.0120
2025-10-14 13:00: 0.0120
2025-10-14 15:00: 0.0120
2025-10-14 17:00: 0.0120
2025-10-14 19:00: 0.0120
Trade Summary: Total trades: 7, Buy volume: 289.18, Sell volume: 0.00, Average price: 0.8539, Price range: 0.0190 - 0.9950

Output: No


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 587282
Question: Will the Forum for Democracy win the fourth most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 38857.661351
Price History:
2025-10-15 07:00: 0.9885
2025-10-15 09:00: 0.0115
2025-10-15 11:00: 0.0115
2025-10-15 13:00: 0.9880
2025-10-15 15:00: 0.0120
2025-10-15 17:00: 0.9895
2025-10-15 19:00: 0.9945
2025-10-15 21:00: 0.0040
2025-10-15 23:00: 0.9960
2025-10-16 01:00: 0.9960
2025-10-16 03:00: 0.0040
2025-10-16 05:00: 0.0040
2025-10-16 07:00: 0.9960
2025-10-16 09:00: 0.9895
2025-10-16 11:00: 0.9900
2025-10-16 13:00: 0.0100
2025-10-16 15:00: 0.9900
2025-10-16 17:00: 0.9900
2025-10-16 19:00: 0.9900
2025-10-16 21:00: 0.9900
2025-10-16 23:00: 0.0100
2025-10-17 01:00: 0.0095
2025-10-17 03:00: 0.0095
2025-10-17 05:00: 0.9905
2025-10-17 07:00: 0.9905
2025-10-17 09:00: 0.9905
2025-10-17 11:00: 0.9905
2025-10-17 13:00: 0.0095
2025-10-17 15:00: 0.9905
2025-10-17 17:00: 0.9905
2025-10-17 19:00: 0.0095
2025-10-17 21:00: 0.0095
2025-10-17 23:00: 0.9905
2025-10-18 01:00: 0.9905
2025-10-18 03:00: 0.9905
2025-10-18 05:00: 0.0095
2025-10-18 07:00: 0.0095
2025-10-18 09:00: 0.0095
2025-10-18 11:00: 0.0095
2025-10-18 13:00: 0.0095
2025-10-18 15:00: 0.0095
2025-10-18 17:00: 0.0095
2025-10-18 19:00: 0.0095
2025-10-18 21:00: 0.0095
2025-10-18 23:00: 0.0095
2025-10-19 01:00: 0.0095
2025-10-19 03:00: 0.0095
2025-10-19 05:00: 0.0095
2025-10-19 07:00: 0.9905
2025-10-19 09:00: 0.9905
Trade Summary: Total trades: 7, Buy volume: 68.08, Sell volume: 93.56, Average price: 0.9961, Price range: 0.9950 - 0.9970

Output: No


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 587282
Question: Will the Forum for Democracy win the fourth most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 38857.661351
Price History:
2025-10-19 21:00: 0.0100
2025-10-19 23:00: 0.9900
2025-10-20 01:00: 0.0100
2025-10-20 03:00: 0.9900
2025-10-20 05:00: 0.0100
2025-10-20 07:00: 0.9900
2025-10-20 09:00: 0.9900
2025-10-20 11:00: 0.9895
2025-10-20 13:00: 0.9895
2025-10-20 15:00: 0.0085
2025-10-20 17:00: 0.9945
2025-10-20 19:00: 0.9945
2025-10-20 21:00: 0.9945
2025-10-20 23:00: 0.0055
2025-10-21 01:00: 0.0055
2025-10-21 03:00: 0.0055
2025-10-21 05:00: 0.9950
2025-10-21 07:00: 0.0050
2025-10-21 09:00: 0.9950
2025-10-21 11:00: 0.9950
2025-10-21 13:00: 0.0050
2025-10-21 15:00: 0.0050
2025-10-21 17:00: 0.0050
2025-10-21 19:00: 0.9950
2025-10-21 21:00: 0.9950
2025-10-21 23:00: 0.0050
2025-10-22 01:00: 0.9850
2025-10-22 03:00: 0.9845
2025-10-22 05:00: 0.9845
2025-10-22 07:00: 0.9850
2025-10-22 09:00: 0.9850
2025-10-22 11:00: 0.9850
2025-10-22 13:00: 0.9850
2025-10-22 15:00: 0.9850
2025-10-22 17:00: 0.9850
2025-10-22 19:00: 0.9850
2025-10-22 21:00: 0.0150
2025-10-22 23:00: 0.9850
2025-10-23 01:00: 0.9850
2025-10-23 03:00: 0.9850
2025-10-23 05:00: 0.0110
2025-10-23 07:00: 0.9945
2025-10-23 09:00: 0.9945
2025-10-23 11:00: 0.0055
2025-10-23 13:00: 0.9945
2025-10-23 15:00: 0.0055
2025-10-23 17:00: 0.9965
2025-10-23 19:00: 0.9965
2025-10-23 21:00: 0.9965
2025-10-23 23:00: 0.9965
Trade Summary: Total trades: 26, Buy volume: 377.46, Sell volume: 539.13, Average price: 0.6524, Price range: 0.0030 - 0.9970

Output: No


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 587282
Question: Will the Forum for Democracy win the fourth most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 38857.661351
Price History:
2025-10-24 11:00: 0.9965
2025-10-24 13:00: 0.9850
2025-10-24 15:00: 0.9850
2025-10-24 17:00: 0.9900
2025-10-24 19:00: 0.9965
2025-10-24 21:00: 0.9970
2025-10-24 23:00: 0.9970
2025-10-25 01:00: 0.0030
2025-10-25 03:00: 0.9970
2025-10-25 05:00: 0.9970
2025-10-25 07:00: 0.9970
2025-10-25 09:00: 0.9970
2025-10-25 11:00: 0.9965
2025-10-25 13:00: 0.9970
2025-10-25 15:00: 0.9970
2025-10-25 17:00: 0.9970
2025-10-25 19:00: 0.9970
2025-10-25 21:00: 0.9915
2025-10-25 23:00: 0.9915
2025-10-26 01:00: 0.9915
2025-10-26 03:00: 0.9915
2025-10-26 05:00: 0.9915
2025-10-26 07:00: 0.9910
2025-10-26 09:00: 0.9910
2025-10-26 11:00: 0.9910
2025-10-26 13:00: 0.9910
2025-10-26 15:00: 0.9910
2025-10-26 17:00: 0.9910
2025-10-26 19:00: 0.9910
2025-10-26 21:00: 0.9910
2025-10-26 23:00: 0.0090
2025-10-27 01:00: 0.9895
2025-10-27 03:00: 0.0145
2025-10-27 05:00: 0.9910
2025-10-27 07:00: 0.9910
2025-10-27 09:00: 0.9955
2025-10-27 11:00: 0.9955
2025-10-27 13:00: 0.9955
2025-10-27 15:00: 0.9955
2025-10-27 17:00: 0.9855
2025-10-27 19:00: 0.9845
2025-10-27 21:00: 0.9845
2025-10-27 23:00: 0.9845
2025-10-28 01:00: 0.0155
2025-10-28 03:00: 0.9845
2025-10-28 05:00: 0.9850
2025-10-28 07:00: 0.9850
2025-10-28 09:00: 0.9850
2025-10-28 11:00: 0.9845
2025-10-28 13:00: 0.9890
Trade Summary: Total trades: 50, Buy volume: 3929.56, Sell volume: 150.41, Average price: 0.7387, Price range: 0.0040 - 0.9980

Output: No


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 587282
Question: Will the Forum for Democracy win the fourth most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 38857.661351
Price History:
2025-10-29 01:00: 0.9845
2025-10-29 03:00: 0.9845
2025-10-29 05:00: 0.9845
2025-10-29 11:00: 0.9845
2025-10-29 13:00: 0.9850
2025-10-29 15:00: 0.9850
2025-10-29 17:00: 0.9975
2025-10-29 19:00: 0.9975
2025-10-29 21:00: 0.0025
2025-10-29 23:00: 0.9980
2025-10-30 01:00: 0.9995
2025-10-30 03:00: 0.9995
2025-10-30 05:00: 0.9995
2025-10-30 07:00: 0.9995
2025-10-30 09:00: 0.9995
2025-10-30 11:00: 0.9995
2025-10-30 13:00: 0.9995
2025-10-30 15:00: 0.9990
2025-10-30 17:00: 0.9995
2025-10-30 19:00: 0.9995
2025-10-30 21:00: 0.9995
2025-10-30 23:00: 0.0005
2025-10-31 01:00: 0.9995
2025-10-31 03:00: 0.9995
2025-10-31 05:00: 0.9995
2025-10-31 07:00: 0.9995
2025-10-31 09:00: 0.0005
2025-10-31 11:00: 0.9995
2025-10-31 13:00: 0.9995
2025-10-31 15:00: 0.9995
2025-10-31 17:00: 0.0005
2025-10-31 19:00: 0.9995
2025-10-31 21:00: 0.9995
2025-10-31 23:00: 0.9985
2025-11-01 01:00: 0.9975
2025-11-01 03:00: 0.9980
2025-11-01 05:00: 0.9995
2025-11-01 07:00: 0.0005
2025-11-01 09:00: 0.9995
2025-11-01 11:00: 0.9995
2025-11-01 13:00: 0.0005
2025-11-01 15:00: 0.9995
2025-11-01 17:00: 0.9995
2025-11-01 19:00: 0.9995
2025-11-01 21:00: 0.9995
2025-11-01 23:00: 0.9995
2025-11-02 01:00: 0.0005
2025-11-02 02:00: 0.9995
2025-11-02 04:00: 0.9995
2025-11-02 06:00: 0.9995
Trade Summary: Total trades: 47, Buy volume: 12628.27, Sell volume: 16515.00, Average price: 0.5315, Price range: 0.0010 - 0.9990

Output: No


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 587282
Question: Will the Forum for Democracy win the fourth most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?
Volume: 38857.661351
Price History:
2025-09-04 00:00: 0.5000
2025-09-04 03:00: 0.9550
2025-09-04 07:00: 0.9550
2025-09-04 10:00: 0.0450
2025-09-04 14:00: 0.0450
2025-09-04 17:00: 0.9815
2025-09-04 21:00: 0.0185
2025-09-05 00:00: 0.9810
2025-09-05 04:00: 0.0190
2025-09-05 07:00: 0.0190
2025-09-05 11:00: 0.9805
2025-09-05 14:00: 0.0235
2025-09-05 18:00: 0.9805
2025-09-05 21:00: 0.0210
2025-09-06 01:00: 0.9780
2025-09-06 04:00: 0.9765
2025-09-06 08:00: 0.9755
2025-09-06 11:00: 0.9760
2025-09-06 15:00: 0.0230
2025-09-06 18:00: 0.0230
2025-09-06 22:00: 0.0225
2025-09-07 01:00: 0.0230
2025-09-07 05:00: 0.0230
2025-09-07 08:00: 0.9780
2025-09-07 12:00: 0.0215
2025-09-07 15:00: 0.9815
2025-09-07 19:00: 0.0185
2025-09-07 22:00: 0.9815
2025-09-08 02:00: 0.0185
2025-09-08 05:00: 0.0185
Trade Summary: Total trades: 18, Buy volume: 458.46, Sell volume: 140.46, Average price: 0.6646, Price range: 0.0190 - 0.9900
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike, wash_trading

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 587282
Question: Will the Forum for Democracy win the fourth most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?
Volume: 38857.661351
Price History:
2025-09-08 14:00: 0.0185
2025-09-08 17:00: 0.0185
2025-09-08 21:00: 0.0185
2025-09-09 00:00: 0.0185
2025-09-09 04:00: 0.9815
2025-09-09 07:00: 0.0185
2025-09-09 11:00: 0.0185
2025-09-09 14:00: 0.9815
2025-09-09 18:00: 0.0185
2025-09-09 21:00: 0.9815
2025-09-10 01:00: 0.9815
2025-09-10 04:00: 0.0185
2025-09-10 08:00: 0.9815
2025-09-10 11:00: 0.9815
2025-09-10 15:00: 0.9815
2025-09-10 18:00: 0.9815
2025-09-10 22:00: 0.0185
2025-09-11 01:00: 0.0185
2025-09-11 05:00: 0.0185
2025-09-11 08:00: 0.0185
2025-09-11 12:00: 0.0185
2025-09-11 15:00: 0.0180
2025-09-11 19:00: 0.9830
2025-09-11 22:00: 0.0170
2025-09-12 02:00: 0.9830
2025-09-12 05:00: 0.0170
2025-09-12 09:00: 0.9830
2025-09-12 12:00: 0.0170
2025-09-12 16:00: 0.9830
2025-09-12 19:00: 0.9830
Trade Summary: Total trades: 4, Buy volume: 546.12, Sell volume: 0.00, Average price: 0.9832, Price range: 0.9830 - 0.9840
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 587282
Question: Will the Forum for Democracy win the fourth most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?
Volume: 38857.661351
Price History:
2025-09-13 04:00: 0.9830
2025-09-13 07:00: 0.9830
2025-09-13 11:00: 0.0170
2025-09-13 14:00: 0.9830
2025-09-13 18:00: 0.9830
2025-09-13 21:00: 0.9830
2025-09-14 01:00: 0.0170
2025-09-14 04:00: 0.9830
2025-09-14 08:00: 0.0170
2025-09-14 11:00: 0.0170
2025-09-14 15:00: 0.9830
2025-09-14 18:00: 0.9830
2025-09-14 22:00: 0.9830
2025-09-15 01:00: 0.0170
2025-09-15 05:00: 0.0170
2025-09-15 08:00: 0.0170
2025-09-15 12:00: 0.0170
2025-09-15 15:00: 0.0170
2025-09-15 19:00: 0.0135
2025-09-15 22:00: 0.0135
2025-09-16 02:00: 0.9860
2025-09-16 05:00: 0.9865
2025-09-16 09:00: 0.0130
2025-09-16 12:00: 0.9870
2025-09-16 16:00: 0.9870
2025-09-16 19:00: 0.0140
2025-09-16 23:00: 0.9870
2025-09-17 02:00: 0.0130
2025-09-17 06:00: 0.0130
2025-09-17 09:00: 0.9875
Trade Summary: Total trades: 3, Buy volume: 240.94, Sell volume: 124.06, Average price: 0.6623, Price range: 0.0150 - 0.9870
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike, wash_trading

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 587282
Question: Will the Forum for Democracy win the fourth most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?
Volume: 38857.661351
Price History:
2025-09-17 19:00: 0.0110
2025-09-17 22:00: 0.9890
2025-09-18 02:00: 0.9890
2025-09-18 05:00: 0.9890
2025-09-18 09:00: 0.0110
2025-09-18 12:00: 0.0110
2025-09-18 16:00: 0.9890
2025-09-18 19:00: 0.9890
2025-09-18 23:00: 0.9890
2025-09-19 02:00: 0.9890
2025-09-19 06:00: 0.0110
2025-09-19 09:00: 0.9890
2025-09-19 13:00: 0.9890
2025-09-19 16:00: 0.0110
2025-09-19 20:00: 0.9890
2025-09-19 23:00: 0.0110
2025-09-20 03:00: 0.0110
2025-09-20 06:00: 0.0110
2025-09-20 10:00: 0.0100
2025-09-20 13:00: 0.0100
2025-09-20 17:00: 0.0100
2025-09-20 20:00: 0.9900
2025-09-21 00:00: 0.0100
2025-09-21 03:00: 0.9900
2025-09-21 07:00: 0.9900
2025-09-21 10:00: 0.0100
2025-09-21 14:00: 0.9900
2025-09-21 17:00: 0.0100
2025-09-21 21:00: 0.9910
2025-09-22 00:00: 0.0090
Trade Summary: Total trades: 3, Buy volume: 51.44, Sell volume: 0.00, Average price: 0.9920, Price range: 0.9920 - 0.9920
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 587282
Question: Will the Forum for Democracy win the fourth most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?
Volume: 38857.661351
Price History:
2025-09-22 09:00: 0.0090
2025-09-22 12:00: 0.9910
2025-09-22 16:00: 0.0085
2025-09-22 19:00: 0.9915
2025-09-22 23:00: 0.0085
2025-09-23 02:00: 0.9915
2025-09-23 06:00: 0.0085
2025-09-23 09:00: 0.9915
2025-09-23 13:00: 0.9915
2025-09-23 16:00: 0.9915
2025-09-23 20:00: 0.9915
2025-09-23 23:00: 0.9915
2025-09-24 03:00: 0.9915
2025-09-24 06:00: 0.0085
2025-09-24 10:00: 0.9915
2025-09-24 13:00: 0.9915
2025-09-24 17:00: 0.9915
2025-09-24 20:00: 0.9915
2025-09-25 00:00: 0.9915
2025-09-25 03:00: 0.0085
2025-09-25 07:00: 0.0085
2025-09-25 10:00: 0.0080
2025-09-25 14:00: 0.9920
2025-09-25 17:00: 0.0090
2025-09-25 21:00: 0.0090
2025-09-26 00:00: 0.9910
2025-09-26 04:00: 0.0090
2025-09-26 07:00: 0.9910
2025-09-26 11:00: 0.9910
2025-09-26 14:00: 0.9910
Trade Summary: Total trades: 8, Buy volume: 68.00, Sell volume: 36.99, Average price: 0.4999, Price range: 0.0070 - 0.9930
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 587282
Question: Will the Forum for Democracy win the fourth most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?
Volume: 38857.661351
Price History:
2025-09-26 23:00: 0.9920
2025-09-27 02:00: 0.9920
2025-09-27 06:00: 0.9920
2025-09-27 09:00: 0.0080
2025-09-27 13:00: 0.0090
2025-09-27 16:00: 0.0090
2025-09-27 20:00: 0.9915
2025-09-27 23:00: 0.0085
2025-09-28 03:00: 0.9915
2025-09-28 06:00: 0.0095
2025-09-28 10:00: 0.9930
2025-09-28 13:00: 0.0060
2025-09-28 17:00: 0.9940
2025-09-28 20:00: 0.0060
2025-09-29 00:00: 0.9940
2025-09-29 03:00: 0.0060
2025-09-29 07:00: 0.9940
2025-09-29 10:00: 0.9940
2025-09-29 14:00: 0.0065
2025-09-29 17:00: 0.9935
2025-09-29 21:00: 0.0060
2025-09-30 00:00: 0.9940
2025-09-30 04:00: 0.0060
2025-09-30 07:00: 0.9940
2025-09-30 11:00: 0.0060
2025-09-30 14:00: 0.9940
2025-09-30 18:00: 0.9940
2025-09-30 21:00: 0.0055
2025-10-01 01:00: 0.0055
2025-10-01 04:00: 0.9945
Trade Summary: Total trades: 14, Buy volume: 571.69, Sell volume: 151.01, Average price: 0.3593, Price range: 0.0020 - 0.9980
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 587282
Question: Will the Forum for Democracy win the fourth most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?
Volume: 38857.661351
Price History:
2025-10-01 13:00: 0.0055
2025-10-01 16:00: 0.9945
2025-10-01 20:00: 0.0055
2025-10-01 23:00: 0.0055
2025-10-02 03:00: 0.9945
2025-10-02 06:00: 0.0055
2025-10-02 10:00: 0.9950
2025-10-02 13:00: 0.0050
2025-10-02 17:00: 0.9950
2025-10-02 20:00: 0.9940
2025-10-03 00:00: 0.0065
2025-10-03 03:00: 0.0065
2025-10-03 07:00: 0.9865
2025-10-03 10:00: 0.0135
2025-10-03 14:00: 0.0135
2025-10-03 17:00: 0.0135
2025-10-03 21:00: 0.9830
2025-10-04 00:00: 0.0170
2025-10-04 04:00: 0.9830
2025-10-04 07:00: 0.9830
2025-10-04 11:00: 0.0170
2025-10-04 14:00: 0.9830
2025-10-04 18:00: 0.0170
2025-10-04 21:00: 0.9840
2025-10-05 01:00: 0.0160
2025-10-05 04:00: 0.9840
2025-10-05 08:00: 0.0170
2025-10-05 11:00: 0.9830
2025-10-05 15:00: 0.0170
2025-10-05 18:00: 0.9830
Trade Summary: Total trades: 6, Buy volume: 1832.84, Sell volume: 12.00, Average price: 0.1791, Price range: 0.0030 - 0.9960
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 587282
Question: Will the Forum for Democracy win the fourth most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?
Volume: 38857.661351
Price History:
2025-10-06 03:00: 0.0165
2025-10-06 06:00: 0.9835
2025-10-06 10:00: 0.0165
2025-10-06 13:00: 0.0165
2025-10-06 17:00: 0.9835
2025-10-06 20:00: 0.9835
2025-10-07 00:00: 0.0160
2025-10-07 03:00: 0.0160
2025-10-07 07:00: 0.9840
2025-10-07 10:00: 0.0160
2025-10-07 14:00: 0.9840
2025-10-07 17:00: 0.0160
2025-10-07 21:00: 0.9840
2025-10-08 00:00: 0.0160
2025-10-08 04:00: 0.0160
2025-10-08 07:00: 0.0160
2025-10-08 11:00: 0.0170
2025-10-08 14:00: 0.0165
2025-10-08 18:00: 0.0165
2025-10-08 21:00: 0.0165
2025-10-09 01:00: 0.9835
2025-10-09 04:00: 0.0160
2025-10-09 08:00: 0.0165
2025-10-09 11:00: 0.9835
2025-10-09 15:00: 0.9835
2025-10-09 18:00: 0.9835
2025-10-09 22:00: 0.0165
2025-10-10 01:00: 0.9835
2025-10-10 05:00: 0.0145
2025-10-10 08:00: 0.9855
Trade Summary: Total trades: 3, Buy volume: 27.91, Sell volume: 5.09, Average price: 0.6643, Price range: 0.0070 - 0.9930
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 587282
Question: Will the Forum for Democracy win the fourth most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?
Volume: 38857.661351
Price History:
2025-10-10 17:00: 0.0140
2025-10-10 20:00: 0.0125
2025-10-11 00:00: 0.0125
2025-10-11 03:00: 0.0125
2025-10-11 07:00: 0.0125
2025-10-11 10:00: 0.9875
2025-10-11 14:00: 0.0120
2025-10-11 17:00: 0.9880
2025-10-11 21:00: 0.9830
2025-10-12 00:00: 0.9825
2025-10-12 04:00: 0.0180
2025-10-12 07:00: 0.0180
2025-10-12 11:00: 0.9825
2025-10-12 14:00: 0.0175
2025-10-12 18:00: 0.9825
2025-10-12 21:00: 0.0140
2025-10-13 01:00: 0.0140
2025-10-13 04:00: 0.0140
2025-10-13 08:00: 0.9860
2025-10-13 11:00: 0.0135
2025-10-13 15:00: 0.9865
2025-10-13 18:00: 0.0125
2025-10-13 22:00: 0.9875
2025-10-14 01:00: 0.0125
2025-10-14 05:00: 0.0125
2025-10-14 08:00: 0.9885
2025-10-14 12:00: 0.0120
2025-10-14 15:00: 0.9880
2025-10-14 19:00: 0.0120
2025-10-14 22:00: 0.0120
Trade Summary: Total trades: 7, Buy volume: 289.18, Sell volume: 0.00, Average price: 0.8539, Price range: 0.0190 - 0.9950
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 587282
Question: Will the Forum for Democracy win the fourth most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?
Volume: 38857.661351
Price History:
2025-10-15 07:00: 0.9885
2025-10-15 10:00: 0.0115
2025-10-15 14:00: 0.0120
2025-10-15 17:00: 0.0105
2025-10-15 21:00: 0.0040
2025-10-16 00:00: 0.0040
2025-10-16 04:00: 0.9960
2025-10-16 07:00: 0.0040
2025-10-16 11:00: 0.9900
2025-10-16 14:00: 0.0100
2025-10-16 18:00: 0.0100
2025-10-16 21:00: 0.0100
2025-10-17 01:00: 0.0095
2025-10-17 04:00: 0.0095
2025-10-17 08:00: 0.9905
2025-10-17 11:00: 0.0095
2025-10-17 15:00: 0.9905
2025-10-17 18:00: 0.9905
2025-10-17 22:00: 0.0095
2025-10-18 01:00: 0.0095
2025-10-18 05:00: 0.0095
2025-10-18 08:00: 0.9905
2025-10-18 12:00: 0.0095
2025-10-18 15:00: 0.9905
2025-10-18 19:00: 0.0095
2025-10-18 22:00: 0.9905
2025-10-19 02:00: 0.0095
2025-10-19 05:00: 0.9905
2025-10-19 09:00: 0.9905
2025-10-19 12:00: 0.0100
Trade Summary: Total trades: 7, Buy volume: 68.08, Sell volume: 93.56, Average price: 0.9961, Price range: 0.9950 - 0.9970
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 587282
Question: Will the Forum for Democracy win the fourth most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?
Volume: 38857.661351
Price History:
2025-10-19 21:00: 0.0100
2025-10-20 00:00: 0.0100
2025-10-20 04:00: 0.0100
2025-10-20 07:00: 0.0100
2025-10-20 11:00: 0.9895
2025-10-20 14:00: 0.0085
2025-10-20 18:00: 0.9945
2025-10-20 21:00: 0.0055
2025-10-21 01:00: 0.0055
2025-10-21 04:00: 0.0050
2025-10-21 08:00: 0.9950
2025-10-21 11:00: 0.0050
2025-10-21 15:00: 0.0050
2025-10-21 18:00: 0.0050
2025-10-21 22:00: 0.9950
2025-10-22 01:00: 0.0150
2025-10-22 05:00: 0.9845
2025-10-22 08:00: 0.0150
2025-10-22 12:00: 0.9850
2025-10-22 15:00: 0.0150
2025-10-22 19:00: 0.9850
2025-10-22 22:00: 0.0150
2025-10-23 02:00: 0.0150
2025-10-23 05:00: 0.9890
2025-10-23 09:00: 0.9945
2025-10-23 12:00: 0.0055
2025-10-23 16:00: 0.9955
2025-10-23 19:00: 0.0035
2025-10-23 23:00: 0.9965
2025-10-24 02:00: 0.0035
Trade Summary: Total trades: 26, Buy volume: 377.46, Sell volume: 539.13, Average price: 0.6524, Price range: 0.0030 - 0.9970
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 587282
Question: Will the Forum for Democracy win the fourth most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?
Volume: 38857.661351
Price History:
2025-10-24 11:00: 0.9965
2025-10-24 14:00: 0.0150
2025-10-24 18:00: 0.0065
2025-10-24 21:00: 0.0030
2025-10-25 01:00: 0.0030
2025-10-25 04:00: 0.0030
2025-10-25 08:00: 0.9970
2025-10-25 11:00: 0.0035
2025-10-25 15:00: 0.9970
2025-10-25 18:00: 0.0030
2025-10-25 22:00: 0.0085
2025-10-26 01:00: 0.0085
2025-10-26 05:00: 0.9915
2025-10-26 08:00: 0.0090
2025-10-26 12:00: 0.9910
2025-10-26 15:00: 0.0090
2025-10-26 19:00: 0.9910
2025-10-26 22:00: 0.0090
2025-10-27 02:00: 0.9855
2025-10-27 05:00: 0.0090
2025-10-27 09:00: 0.9955
2025-10-27 12:00: 0.0045
2025-10-27 16:00: 0.9955
2025-10-27 19:00: 0.0155
2025-10-27 23:00: 0.9845
2025-10-28 02:00: 0.0155
2025-10-28 06:00: 0.9850
2025-10-28 09:00: 0.0150
2025-10-28 13:00: 0.9890
2025-10-28 16:00: 0.0150
Trade Summary: Total trades: 50, Buy volume: 3929.56, Sell volume: 150.41, Average price: 0.7387, Price range: 0.0040 - 0.9980
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 587282
Question: Will the Forum for Democracy win the fourth most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?
Volume: 38857.661351
Price History:
2025-10-29 01:00: 0.9845
2025-10-29 04:00: 0.0155
2025-10-29 12:00: 0.0150
2025-10-29 15:00: 0.0150
2025-10-29 19:00: 0.9975
2025-10-29 22:00: 0.9980
2025-10-30 02:00: 0.9995
2025-10-30 05:00: 0.0005
2025-10-30 09:00: 0.9995
2025-10-30 12:00: 0.0660
2025-10-30 16:00: 0.9995
2025-10-30 19:00: 0.0005
2025-10-30 23:00: 0.0005
2025-10-31 02:00: 0.0005
2025-10-31 06:00: 0.9995
2025-10-31 09:00: 0.9995
2025-10-31 13:00: 0.9995
2025-10-31 16:00: 0.0005
2025-10-31 20:00: 0.9995
2025-10-31 23:00: 0.0015
2025-11-01 03:00: 0.9980
2025-11-01 06:00: 0.0005
2025-11-01 10:00: 0.9995
2025-11-01 13:00: 0.9995
2025-11-01 17:00: 0.9995
2025-11-01 20:00: 0.0005
2025-11-02 00:00: 0.0005
2025-11-02 02:00: 0.0005
2025-11-02 06:00: 0.9995
2025-11-02 09:00: 0.0005
Trade Summary: Total trades: 47, Buy volume: 12628.27, Sell volume: 16515.00, Average price: 0.5315, Price range: 0.0010 - 0.9990
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 587284
Question: Will the JA21 win the fourth most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 50816.777652
Price History:
2025-09-04 00:00: 0.5000
2025-09-04 02:00: 0.5000
2025-09-04 04:00: 0.5000
2025-09-04 06:00: 0.5500
2025-09-04 08:00: 0.5000
2025-09-04 10:00: 0.6900
2025-09-04 12:00: 0.6950
2025-09-04 14:00: 0.3050
2025-09-04 16:00: 0.8300
2025-09-04 18:00: 0.8350
2025-09-04 20:00: 0.1650
2025-09-04 22:00: 0.8350
2025-09-05 00:00: 0.1650
2025-09-05 02:00: 0.8400
2025-09-05 04:00: 0.1600
2025-09-05 06:00: 0.8400
2025-09-05 08:00: 0.8400
2025-09-05 10:00: 0.8400
2025-09-05 12:00: 0.8350
2025-09-05 14:00: 0.8350
2025-09-05 16:00: 0.8350
2025-09-05 18:00: 0.8350
2025-09-05 20:00: 0.8350
2025-09-05 22:00: 0.1650
2025-09-06 00:00: 0.8350
2025-09-06 02:00: 0.1650
2025-09-06 04:00: 0.8350
2025-09-06 06:00: 0.8350
2025-09-06 08:00: 0.8350
2025-09-06 10:00: 0.8350
2025-09-06 12:00: 0.8350
2025-09-06 14:00: 0.8350
2025-09-06 16:00: 0.8350
2025-09-06 18:00: 0.8350
2025-09-06 20:00: 0.1600
2025-09-06 22:00: 0.8400
2025-09-07 00:00: 0.8400
2025-09-07 02:00: 0.8400
2025-09-07 04:00: 0.7200
2025-09-07 06:00: 0.2500
2025-09-07 08:00: 0.2600
2025-09-07 10:00: 0.2550
2025-09-07 12:00: 0.2600
2025-09-07 14:00: 0.7600
2025-09-07 16:00: 0.2500
2025-09-07 18:00: 0.7600
2025-09-07 20:00: 0.7600
2025-09-07 22:00: 0.2400
2025-09-08 00:00: 0.7600
2025-09-08 02:00: 0.7600
Trade Summary: Total trades: 14, Buy volume: 1316.99, Sell volume: 20.00, Average price: 0.5095, Price range: 0.1500 - 0.8500

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 587284
Question: Will the JA21 win the fourth most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 50816.777652
Price History:
2025-09-08 14:00: 0.7450
2025-09-08 16:00: 0.2400
2025-09-08 18:00: 0.7450
2025-09-08 20:00: 0.7450
2025-09-08 22:00: 0.2500
2025-09-09 00:00: 0.2500
2025-09-09 02:00: 0.7500
2025-09-09 04:00: 0.7500
2025-09-09 06:00: 0.7500
2025-09-09 08:00: 0.7700
2025-09-09 10:00: 0.7750
2025-09-09 12:00: 0.7750
2025-09-09 14:00: 0.7750
2025-09-09 16:00: 0.7700
2025-09-09 18:00: 0.7700
2025-09-09 20:00: 0.7700
2025-09-09 22:00: 0.7700
2025-09-10 00:00: 0.2300
2025-09-10 02:00: 0.7700
2025-09-10 04:00: 0.7700
2025-09-10 06:00: 0.7700
2025-09-10 08:00: 0.7550
2025-09-10 10:00: 0.7650
2025-09-10 12:00: 0.2300
2025-09-10 14:00: 0.2300
2025-09-10 16:00: 0.7700
2025-09-10 18:00: 0.7700
2025-09-10 20:00: 0.2350
2025-09-10 22:00: 0.7650
2025-09-11 00:00: 0.7700
2025-09-11 02:00: 0.7700
2025-09-11 04:00: 0.7750
2025-09-11 06:00: 0.7650
2025-09-11 08:00: 0.7700
2025-09-11 10:00: 0.2300
2025-09-11 12:00: 0.2300
2025-09-11 14:00: 0.2300
2025-09-11 16:00: 0.7750
2025-09-11 18:00: 0.2400
2025-09-11 20:00: 0.7550
2025-09-11 22:00: 0.7550
2025-09-12 00:00: 0.2450
2025-09-12 02:00: 0.7700
2025-09-12 04:00: 0.2300
2025-09-12 06:00: 0.2300
2025-09-12 08:00: 0.2450
2025-09-12 10:00: 0.2400
2025-09-12 12:00: 0.2350
2025-09-12 14:00: 0.2450
2025-09-12 16:00: 0.2450
Trade Summary: Total trades: 4, Buy volume: 201.52, Sell volume: 0.00, Average price: 0.5225, Price range: 0.2500 - 0.7900

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 587284
Question: Will the JA21 win the fourth most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 50816.777652
Price History:
2025-09-13 04:00: 0.2450
2025-09-13 06:00: 0.2400
2025-09-13 08:00: 0.2450
2025-09-13 10:00: 0.7550
2025-09-13 12:00: 0.7550
2025-09-13 14:00: 0.2450
2025-09-13 16:00: 0.2450
2025-09-13 18:00: 0.2450
2025-09-13 20:00: 0.2450
2025-09-13 22:00: 0.2450
2025-09-14 00:00: 0.7550
2025-09-14 02:00: 0.2450
2025-09-14 04:00: 0.2450
2025-09-14 06:00: 0.2450
2025-09-14 08:00: 0.2450
2025-09-14 10:00: 0.2450
2025-09-14 12:00: 0.2450
2025-09-14 14:00: 0.2400
2025-09-14 16:00: 0.2450
2025-09-14 18:00: 0.2450
2025-09-14 20:00: 0.2450
2025-09-14 22:00: 0.7550
2025-09-15 00:00: 0.2450
2025-09-15 02:00: 0.2450
2025-09-15 04:00: 0.7500
2025-09-15 06:00: 0.7550
2025-09-15 08:00: 0.7550
2025-09-15 10:00: 0.2350
2025-09-15 12:00: 0.2300
2025-09-15 14:00: 0.7650
2025-09-15 16:00: 0.7700
2025-09-15 18:00: 0.7700
2025-09-15 20:00: 0.7650
2025-09-15 22:00: 0.2350
2025-09-16 00:00: 0.2300
2025-09-16 02:00: 0.2350
2025-09-16 04:00: 0.2350
2025-09-16 06:00: 0.2350
2025-09-16 08:00: 0.2350
2025-09-16 10:00: 0.2350
2025-09-16 12:00: 0.2350
2025-09-16 14:00: 0.2350
2025-09-16 16:00: 0.7700
2025-09-16 18:00: 0.2400
2025-09-16 20:00: 0.2400
2025-09-16 22:00: 0.2400
2025-09-17 00:00: 0.2400
2025-09-17 02:00: 0.2400
2025-09-17 04:00: 0.7600
2025-09-17 06:00: 0.2400
Trade Summary: Total trades: 2, Buy volume: 11.84, Sell volume: 19.23, Average price: 0.4950, Price range: 0.2500 - 0.7400

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 587284
Question: Will the JA21 win the fourth most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 50816.777652
Price History:
2025-09-17 19:00: 0.2400
2025-09-17 21:00: 0.2400
2025-09-17 23:00: 0.7600
2025-09-18 01:00: 0.7600
2025-09-18 03:00: 0.2400
2025-09-18 05:00: 0.2400
2025-09-18 07:00: 0.7600
2025-09-18 09:00: 0.2350
2025-09-18 11:00: 0.7650
2025-09-18 13:00: 0.2350
2025-09-18 15:00: 0.7650
2025-09-18 17:00: 0.7650
2025-09-18 19:00: 0.2350
2025-09-18 21:00: 0.2350
2025-09-18 23:00: 0.7650
2025-09-19 01:00: 0.2350
2025-09-19 03:00: 0.7650
2025-09-19 05:00: 0.7650
2025-09-19 07:00: 0.2350
2025-09-19 09:00: 0.2350
2025-09-19 11:00: 0.7650
2025-09-19 13:00: 0.7650
2025-09-19 15:00: 0.2350
2025-09-19 17:00: 0.7650
2025-09-19 19:00: 0.2350
2025-09-19 21:00: 0.7650
2025-09-19 23:00: 0.2350
2025-09-20 01:00: 0.2350
2025-09-20 03:00: 0.2350
2025-09-20 05:00: 0.2350
2025-09-20 07:00: 0.2350
2025-09-20 09:00: 0.2350
2025-09-20 11:00: 0.2350
2025-09-20 13:00: 0.2350
2025-09-20 15:00: 0.2350
2025-09-20 17:00: 0.2450
2025-09-20 19:00: 0.2450
2025-09-20 21:00: 0.7550
2025-09-20 23:00: 0.2450
2025-09-21 01:00: 0.2450
2025-09-21 03:00: 0.2450
2025-09-21 05:00: 0.2450
2025-09-21 07:00: 0.2450
2025-09-21 09:00: 0.2450
2025-09-21 11:00: 0.2450
2025-09-21 13:00: 0.2450
2025-09-21 15:00: 0.2450
2025-09-21 17:00: 0.2450
2025-09-21 19:00: 0.2450
2025-09-21 21:00: 0.2700
Trade Summary: Total trades: 12, Buy volume: 1062.00, Sell volume: 664.70, Average price: 0.4924, Price range: 0.2400 - 0.7600

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 587284
Question: Will the JA21 win the fourth most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 50816.777652
Price History:
2025-09-22 09:00: 0.2800
2025-09-22 11:00: 0.2600
2025-09-22 13:00: 0.7450
2025-09-22 15:00: 0.7550
2025-09-22 17:00: 0.7450
2025-09-22 19:00: 0.7600
2025-09-22 21:00: 0.7600
2025-09-22 23:00: 0.7650
2025-09-23 01:00: 0.7500
2025-09-23 03:00: 0.7600
2025-09-23 05:00: 0.7550
2025-09-23 07:00: 0.7500
2025-09-23 09:00: 0.7450
2025-09-23 11:00: 0.2500
2025-09-23 13:00: 0.2450
2025-09-23 15:00: 0.2550
2025-09-23 17:00: 0.2550
2025-09-23 19:00: 0.2500
2025-09-23 21:00: 0.7500
2025-09-23 23:00: 0.2650
2025-09-24 01:00: 0.2650
2025-09-24 03:00: 0.2650
2025-09-24 05:00: 0.7350
2025-09-24 07:00: 0.1700
2025-09-24 09:00: 0.1750
2025-09-24 11:00: 0.7450
2025-09-24 13:00: 0.7200
2025-09-24 15:00: 0.2800
2025-09-24 17:00: 0.7300
2025-09-24 19:00: 0.2500
2025-09-24 21:00: 0.2500
2025-09-24 23:00: 0.7400
2025-09-25 01:00: 0.7100
2025-09-25 03:00: 0.3000
2025-09-25 05:00: 0.3000
2025-09-25 07:00: 0.3150
2025-09-25 09:00: 0.3100
2025-09-25 11:00: 0.2850
2025-09-25 13:00: 0.2900
2025-09-25 15:00: 0.2650
2025-09-25 17:00: 0.2750
2025-09-25 19:00: 0.2850
2025-09-25 21:00: 0.3000
2025-09-25 23:00: 0.2800
2025-09-26 01:00: 0.2850
2025-09-26 03:00: 0.2850
2025-09-26 05:00: 0.2850
2025-09-26 07:00: 0.2900
2025-09-26 09:00: 0.2850
2025-09-26 11:00: 0.3000
Trade Summary: Total trades: 12, Buy volume: 187.48, Sell volume: 164.76, Average price: 0.4903, Price range: 0.1459 - 0.7700

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 587284
Question: Will the JA21 win the fourth most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 50816.777652
Price History:
2025-09-26 23:00: 0.2600
2025-09-27 01:00: 0.2600
2025-09-27 03:00: 0.7400
2025-09-27 05:00: 0.3050
2025-09-27 07:00: 0.7050
2025-09-27 09:00: 0.6950
2025-09-27 11:00: 0.6950
2025-09-27 13:00: 0.3050
2025-09-27 15:00: 0.6250
2025-09-27 17:00: 0.6100
2025-09-27 19:00: 0.6500
2025-09-27 21:00: 0.6600
2025-09-27 23:00: 0.3550
2025-09-28 01:00: 0.6350
2025-09-28 03:00: 0.3550
2025-09-28 05:00: 0.6650
2025-09-28 07:00: 0.3450
2025-09-28 09:00: 0.5700
2025-09-28 11:00: 0.4500
2025-09-28 13:00: 0.6050
2025-09-28 15:00: 0.6050
2025-09-28 17:00: 0.6050
2025-09-28 19:00: 0.6050
2025-09-28 21:00: 0.6050
2025-09-28 23:00: 0.3950
2025-09-29 01:00: 0.3950
2025-09-29 03:00: 0.6050
2025-09-29 05:00: 0.6050
2025-09-29 07:00: 0.6050
2025-09-29 09:00: 0.6000
2025-09-29 11:00: 0.3950
2025-09-29 13:00: 0.4200
2025-09-29 15:00: 0.4200
2025-09-29 17:00: 0.3000
2025-09-29 19:00: 0.3000
2025-09-29 21:00: 0.3050
2025-09-29 23:00: 0.7300
2025-09-30 01:00: 0.7250
2025-09-30 03:00: 0.7250
2025-09-30 05:00: 0.2700
2025-09-30 07:00: 0.7300
2025-09-30 09:00: 0.7050
2025-09-30 11:00: 0.3400
2025-09-30 13:00: 0.3550
2025-09-30 15:00: 0.3100
2025-09-30 17:00: 0.2550
2025-09-30 19:00: 0.2550
2025-09-30 21:00: 0.2550
2025-09-30 23:00: 0.2350
2025-10-01 01:00: 0.2400
Trade Summary: Total trades: 20, Buy volume: 1641.74, Sell volume: 1888.74, Average price: 0.4176, Price range: 0.1329 - 0.5400

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 587284
Question: Will the JA21 win the fourth most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 50816.777652
Price History:
2025-10-01 13:00: 0.2400
2025-10-01 15:00: 0.2400
2025-10-01 17:00: 0.2400
2025-10-01 19:00: 0.2450
2025-10-01 21:00: 0.7550
2025-10-01 23:00: 0.2400
2025-10-02 01:00: 0.2400
2025-10-02 03:00: 0.2400
2025-10-02 05:00: 0.7600
2025-10-02 07:00: 0.7600
2025-10-02 09:00: 0.2400
2025-10-02 11:00: 0.7600
2025-10-02 13:00: 0.7600
2025-10-02 15:00: 0.2400
2025-10-02 17:00: 0.7600
2025-10-02 19:00: 0.7700
2025-10-02 21:00: 0.7750
2025-10-02 23:00: 0.2400
2025-10-03 01:00: 0.2400
2025-10-03 03:00: 0.2400
2025-10-03 05:00: 0.7650
2025-10-03 07:00: 0.7650
2025-10-03 09:00: 0.7650
2025-10-03 11:00: 0.7600
2025-10-03 13:00: 0.7600
2025-10-03 15:00: 0.7600
2025-10-03 17:00: 0.2400
2025-10-03 19:00: 0.7600
2025-10-03 21:00: 0.2400
2025-10-03 23:00: 0.7600
2025-10-04 01:00: 0.7600
2025-10-04 03:00: 0.7600
2025-10-04 05:00: 0.7600
2025-10-04 07:00: 0.2400
2025-10-04 09:00: 0.7600
2025-10-04 11:00: 0.7600
2025-10-04 13:00: 0.2400
2025-10-04 15:00: 0.7600
2025-10-04 17:00: 0.2750
2025-10-04 19:00: 0.2750
2025-10-04 21:00: 0.2750
2025-10-04 23:00: 0.2750
2025-10-05 01:00: 0.2750
2025-10-05 03:00: 0.2750
2025-10-05 05:00: 0.7050
2025-10-05 07:00: 0.7050
2025-10-05 09:00: 0.7050
2025-10-05 11:00: 0.7050
2025-10-05 13:00: 0.7050
2025-10-05 15:00: 0.7050
Trade Summary: Total trades: 10, Buy volume: 341.77, Sell volume: 0.00, Average price: 0.4260, Price range: 0.2900 - 0.7100

Output: Yes