Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 554572
Question: Will Brad Lander’s vote share be less than 6% in the first round of the NYC Democratic mayoral primary?
Volume: 3342.047711
Price History:
2025-06-28 06:00: 0.9940
2025-06-28 08:00: 0.0060
2025-06-28 09:00: 0.9940
2025-06-28 11:00: 0.0060
2025-06-28 12:00: 0.9940
2025-06-28 14:00: 0.0060
2025-06-28 15:00: 0.9940
2025-06-28 17:00: 0.0060
2025-06-28 18:00: 0.9940
2025-06-28 20:00: 0.0060
2025-06-28 21:00: 0.9940
2025-06-28 23:00: 0.0060
2025-06-29 00:00: 0.9940
2025-06-29 02:00: 0.0060
2025-06-29 03:00: 0.9940
2025-06-29 05:00: 0.0060
2025-06-29 06:00: 0.9940
2025-06-29 08:00: 0.0035
2025-06-29 09:00: 0.9965
2025-06-29 11:00: 0.0035
2025-06-29 12:00: 0.9965
2025-06-29 14:00: 0.0030
2025-06-29 15:00: 0.9970
2025-06-29 17:00: 0.0015
2025-06-29 18:00: 0.9985
2025-06-29 20:00: 0.0015
2025-06-29 21:00: 0.9985
2025-06-29 23:00: 0.0015
2025-06-30 00:00: 0.9985
2025-06-30 02:00: 0.0015
Trade Summary: Total trades: 16, Buy volume: 490.88, Sell volume: 54.08, Average price: 0.9982, Price range: 0.9950 - 0.9990
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 554572
Question: Will Brad Lander’s vote share be less than 6% in the first round of the NYC Democratic mayoral primary?
Volume: 3342.047711
Price History:
2025-06-30 18:00: 0.0030
2025-06-30 19:00: 0.9970
2025-06-30 21:00: 0.0030
2025-06-30 22:00: 0.9970
2025-07-01 00:00: 0.0030
2025-07-01 01:00: 0.9970
2025-07-01 03:00: 0.0030
2025-07-01 04:00: 0.9970
2025-07-01 06:00: 0.0015
2025-07-01 07:00: 0.9985
2025-07-01 09:00: 0.0015
2025-07-01 10:00: 0.9985
2025-07-01 12:00: 0.0015
2025-07-01 13:00: 0.9985
2025-07-01 15:00: 0.0055
2025-07-01 16:00: 0.9945
2025-07-01 18:00: 0.0055
2025-07-01 19:00: 0.9945
2025-07-01 21:00: 0.0055
2025-07-01 22:00: 0.9945
2025-07-02 00:00: 0.0055
2025-07-02 01:00: 0.9945
2025-07-02 03:00: 0.0055
2025-07-02 04:00: 0.9945
2025-07-02 06:00: 0.0055
2025-07-02 07:00: 0.9945
2025-07-02 09:00: 0.0055
2025-07-02 10:00: 0.9955
2025-07-02 12:00: 0.0045
2025-07-02 13:00: 0.9955
Trade Summary: Total trades: 6, Buy volume: 144.31, Sell volume: 0.00, Average price: 0.6693, Price range: 0.0100 - 0.9990
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 554572
Question: Will Brad Lander’s vote share be less than 6% in the first round of the NYC Democratic mayoral primary?
Volume: 3342.047711
Price History:
2025-07-03 05:00: 0.9955
2025-07-03 07:00: 0.0045
2025-07-03 08:00: 0.9955
2025-07-03 10:00: 0.0045
2025-07-03 11:00: 0.9955
2025-07-03 13:00: 0.0045
2025-07-03 14:00: 0.9960
2025-07-03 16:00: 0.0040
2025-07-03 17:00: 0.9960
2025-07-03 19:00: 0.0040
2025-07-03 20:00: 0.9960
2025-07-03 22:00: 0.0040
2025-07-03 23:00: 0.9960
2025-07-04 01:00: 0.0040
2025-07-04 02:00: 0.9960
2025-07-04 04:00: 0.0040
2025-07-04 05:00: 0.9960
2025-07-04 07:00: 0.0045
2025-07-04 08:00: 0.9955
2025-07-04 10:00: 0.0045
2025-07-04 11:00: 0.9955
2025-07-04 13:00: 0.0040
2025-07-04 14:00: 0.9960
2025-07-04 16:00: 0.0040
2025-07-04 17:00: 0.9960
2025-07-04 19:00: 0.0040
2025-07-04 20:00: 0.9960
2025-07-04 22:00: 0.0040
2025-07-04 23:00: 0.9960
2025-07-05 01:00: 0.0040
Trade Summary: Total trades: 53, Buy volume: 509.47, Sell volume: 27.78, Average price: 0.9800, Price range: 0.0010 - 0.9990
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike, wash_trading

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 554572
Question: Will Brad Lander’s vote share be less than 6% in the first round of the NYC Democratic mayoral primary?
Volume: 3342.047711
Price History:
2025-07-05 17:00: 0.0040
2025-07-05 18:00: 0.9960
2025-07-05 20:00: 0.0005
2025-07-05 21:00: 0.9995
2025-07-05 23:00: 0.0005
2025-07-06 00:00: 0.9995
2025-07-06 02:00: 0.0005
2025-07-06 03:00: 0.9995
2025-07-06 05:00: 0.0005
2025-07-06 06:00: 0.9995
2025-07-06 08:00: 0.0005
2025-07-06 09:00: 0.9995
2025-07-06 11:00: 0.0005
2025-07-06 12:00: 0.9995
2025-07-06 14:00: 0.0005
2025-07-06 15:00: 0.9995
2025-07-06 17:00: 0.0005
2025-07-06 18:00: 0.9995
2025-07-06 20:00: 0.0005
2025-07-06 21:00: 0.9995
2025-07-06 23:00: 0.0005
2025-07-07 00:00: 0.9995
2025-07-07 02:00: 0.0005
2025-07-07 03:00: 0.9995
2025-07-07 05:00: 0.0005
2025-07-07 06:00: 0.9995
2025-07-07 08:00: 0.0005
2025-07-07 09:00: 0.9995
2025-07-07 11:00: 0.0005
2025-07-07 12:00: 0.9995
Trade Summary: Total trades: 155, Buy volume: 2987.22, Sell volume: 354.83, Average price: 0.8926, Price range: 0.0010 - 0.9990
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike, wash_trading

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 554572
Question: Will Brad Lander’s vote share be less than 6% in the first round of the NYC Democratic mayoral primary?
Volume: 3342.047711
Price History:
2025-07-08 04:00: 0.9995
2025-07-08 06:00: 0.0005
2025-07-08 07:00: 0.9995
2025-07-08 09:00: 0.0040
2025-07-08 10:00: 0.9960
2025-07-08 12:00: 0.0040
2025-07-08 13:00: 0.9960
2025-07-08 15:00: 0.0040
2025-07-08 16:00: 0.9960
2025-07-08 18:00: 0.0040
2025-07-08 19:00: 0.9960
2025-07-08 21:00: 0.0040
2025-07-08 22:00: 0.9960
2025-07-09 00:00: 0.0040
2025-07-09 01:00: 0.9960
2025-07-09 03:00: 0.0040
2025-07-09 04:00: 0.9960
2025-07-09 06:00: 0.0040
2025-07-09 07:00: 0.9960
2025-07-09 09:00: 0.0040
2025-07-09 10:00: 0.9960
2025-07-09 12:00: 0.0040
2025-07-09 13:00: 0.9960
2025-07-09 15:00: 0.0040
2025-07-09 16:00: 0.9960
2025-07-09 18:00: 0.0040
2025-07-09 19:00: 0.9960
2025-07-09 21:00: 0.0040
2025-07-09 22:00: 0.9960
2025-07-10 00:00: 0.0040
Trade Summary: Total trades: 1, Buy volume: 474.75, Sell volume: 0.00, Average price: 0.0021, Price range: 0.0021 - 0.0021
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 554572
Question: Will Brad Lander’s vote share be less than 6% in the first round of the NYC Democratic mayoral primary?
Volume: 3342.047711
Price History:
2025-07-10 16:00: 0.0040
2025-07-10 17:00: 0.9960
2025-07-10 19:00: 0.0040
2025-07-10 20:00: 0.9960
2025-07-10 22:00: 0.0040
2025-07-10 23:00: 0.9960
2025-07-11 01:00: 0.0040
2025-07-11 02:00: 0.9960
2025-07-11 04:00: 0.0040
2025-07-11 05:00: 0.9960
2025-07-11 07:00: 0.0040
2025-07-11 08:00: 0.9960
2025-07-11 10:00: 0.0040
2025-07-11 11:00: 0.9960
2025-07-11 13:00: 0.0040
2025-07-11 14:00: 0.9960
2025-07-11 16:00: 0.0040
2025-07-11 17:00: 0.9960
2025-07-11 19:00: 0.0040
2025-07-11 20:00: 0.9960
2025-07-11 22:00: 0.0040
2025-07-11 23:00: 0.9960
2025-07-12 01:00: 0.0040
2025-07-12 02:00: 0.9960
2025-07-12 04:00: 0.0040
2025-07-12 05:00: 0.9960
2025-07-12 07:00: 0.0040
2025-07-12 08:00: 0.9960
2025-07-12 10:00: 0.0040
2025-07-12 11:00: 0.9960
Trade Summary: Total trades: 155, Buy volume: 2987.22, Sell volume: 354.83, Average price: 0.8926, Price range: 0.0010 - 0.9990
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike, wash_trading

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 554572
Question: Will Brad Lander’s vote share be less than 6% in the first round of the NYC Democratic mayoral primary?
Volume: 3342.047711
Price History:
2025-07-13 03:00: 0.9960
2025-07-13 05:00: 0.0040
2025-07-13 06:00: 0.9955
2025-07-13 08:00: 0.0045
2025-07-13 09:00: 0.9955
2025-07-13 11:00: 0.0045
2025-07-13 12:00: 0.9955
2025-07-13 14:00: 0.0045
2025-07-13 15:00: 0.9955
2025-07-13 17:00: 0.0045
2025-07-13 18:00: 0.9955
2025-07-13 20:00: 0.0005
2025-07-13 21:00: 0.9995
2025-07-13 23:00: 0.0005
2025-07-14 00:00: 0.9995
2025-07-14 02:00: 0.0005
2025-07-14 03:00: 0.9995
2025-07-14 05:00: 0.0005
2025-07-14 06:00: 0.9995
2025-07-14 08:00: 0.0005
2025-07-14 09:00: 0.9995
2025-07-14 11:00: 0.0005
2025-07-14 12:00: 0.9995
2025-07-14 14:00: 0.0005
2025-07-14 15:00: 0.9995
2025-07-14 17:00: 0.0005
2025-07-14 18:00: 0.9995
2025-07-14 20:00: 0.0005
2025-07-14 21:00: 0.9995
2025-07-14 23:00: 0.0005
Trade Summary: Total trades: 1, Buy volume: 200.00, Sell volume: 0.00, Average price: 0.9990, Price range: 0.9990 - 0.9990
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 554572
Question: Will Brad Lander’s vote share be less than 6% in the first round of the NYC Democratic mayoral primary?
Volume: 3342.047711
Price History:
2025-07-15 15:00: 0.0005
2025-07-15 16:00: 0.9995
2025-07-15 18:00: 0.0005
2025-07-15 19:00: 0.9995
2025-07-15 21:00: 0.0005
2025-07-15 22:00: 0.9995
2025-07-16 00:00: 0.0005
2025-07-16 01:00: 0.9995
2025-07-16 03:00: 0.0005
2025-07-16 04:00: 0.9995
2025-07-16 06:00: 0.0005
2025-07-16 07:00: 0.9995
2025-07-16 09:00: 0.0005
2025-07-16 10:00: 0.9995
2025-07-16 12:00: 0.0005
2025-07-16 13:00: 0.9995
2025-07-16 15:00: 0.0005
2025-07-16 16:00: 0.9995
2025-07-16 18:00: 0.0005
2025-07-16 19:00: 0.9995
2025-07-16 21:00: 0.0005
2025-07-16 22:00: 0.9995
2025-07-17 00:00: 0.0005
2025-07-17 01:00: 0.9995
2025-07-17 03:00: 0.0005
2025-07-17 04:00: 0.9995
2025-07-17 06:00: 0.0005
2025-07-17 07:00: 0.9995
2025-07-17 09:00: 0.0005
2025-07-17 10:00: 0.9995
Trade Summary: Total trades: 155, Buy volume: 2987.22, Sell volume: 354.83, Average price: 0.8926, Price range: 0.0010 - 0.9990
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike, wash_trading

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 554572
Question: Will Brad Lander’s vote share be less than 6% in the first round of the NYC Democratic mayoral primary?
Volume: 3342.047711
Price History:
2025-07-18 02:00: 0.9995
2025-07-18 04:00: 0.0005
2025-07-18 05:00: 0.9995
2025-07-18 07:00: 0.0005
2025-07-18 08:00: 0.9995
2025-07-18 10:00: 0.0005
2025-07-18 11:00: 0.9995
2025-07-18 13:00: 0.0005
2025-07-18 14:00: 0.9995
2025-07-18 16:00: 0.0005
2025-07-18 17:00: 0.9995
2025-07-18 19:00: 0.0005
2025-07-18 20:00: 0.9995
2025-07-18 22:00: 0.0005
2025-07-18 23:00: 0.9995
2025-07-19 01:00: 0.0005
2025-07-19 02:00: 0.9995
2025-07-19 04:00: 0.0005
2025-07-19 05:00: 0.9995
2025-07-19 07:00: 0.0005
2025-07-19 08:00: 0.9995
2025-07-19 10:00: 0.0005
2025-07-19 11:00: 0.9995
2025-07-19 13:00: 0.0035
2025-07-19 14:00: 0.9965
2025-07-19 16:00: 0.0035
2025-07-19 17:00: 0.9965
2025-07-19 19:00: 0.0035
2025-07-19 20:00: 0.9965
2025-07-19 22:00: 0.0035
Trade Summary: Total trades: 22, Buy volume: 0.00, Sell volume: 35.06, Average price: 0.9946, Price range: 0.9930 - 0.9990
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 554572
Question: Will Brad Lander’s vote share be less than 6% in the first round of the NYC Democratic mayoral primary?
Volume: 3342.047711
Price History:
2025-07-20 14:00: 0.0035
2025-07-20 15:00: 0.9965
2025-07-20 17:00: 0.0035
2025-07-20 18:00: 0.9965
2025-07-20 20:00: 0.0035
2025-07-20 21:00: 0.9965
2025-07-20 23:00: 0.0035
2025-07-21 00:00: 0.9965
2025-07-21 02:00: 0.0035
2025-07-21 03:00: 0.9965
2025-07-21 05:00: 0.0035
2025-07-21 06:00: 0.9965
2025-07-21 08:00: 0.0035
2025-07-21 09:00: 0.9965
2025-07-21 11:00: 0.0035
2025-07-21 12:00: 0.9965
2025-07-21 14:00: 0.0040
2025-07-21 15:00: 0.9960
2025-07-21 17:00: 0.0040
2025-07-21 18:00: 0.9975
2025-07-21 20:00: 0.0025
2025-07-21 21:00: 0.9975
2025-07-21 23:00: 0.0025
2025-07-22 00:00: 0.9975
2025-07-22 02:00: 0.0025
2025-07-22 03:00: 0.9975
2025-07-22 05:00: 0.0025
2025-07-22 06:00: 0.9975
2025-07-22 08:00: 0.0025
2025-07-22 09:00: 0.9975
Trade Summary: Total trades: 2, Buy volume: 50.00, Sell volume: 1.94, Average price: 0.9970, Price range: 0.9950 - 0.9990
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 554573
Question: Will Brad Lander’s vote share be between 6% and 9% in the first round of the NYC Democratic mayoral primary?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 6087.560685
Price History:
2025-06-20 20:00: 0.2750
2025-06-20 21:00: 0.2750
2025-06-20 22:00: 0.2800
2025-06-20 23:00: 0.2700
2025-06-21 00:00: 0.2700
2025-06-21 01:00: 0.2650
2025-06-21 02:00: 0.2650
2025-06-21 03:00: 0.2700
2025-06-21 04:00: 0.2700
2025-06-21 05:00: 0.2700
2025-06-21 06:00: 0.3250
2025-06-21 07:00: 0.3250
2025-06-21 08:00: 0.3250
2025-06-21 09:00: 0.3200
2025-06-21 10:00: 0.3200
2025-06-21 11:00: 0.3200
2025-06-21 12:00: 0.3200
2025-06-21 13:00: 0.3200
2025-06-21 14:00: 0.3200
2025-06-21 15:00: 0.3200
2025-06-21 16:00: 0.3200
2025-06-21 17:00: 0.3200
2025-06-21 18:00: 0.3200
2025-06-21 19:00: 0.3200
2025-06-21 20:00: 0.3200
2025-06-21 21:00: 0.3200
2025-06-21 22:00: 0.3200
2025-06-21 23:00: 0.3200
2025-06-22 00:00: 0.3200
2025-06-22 01:00: 0.3200
2025-06-22 02:00: 0.3200
2025-06-22 03:00: 0.3200
2025-06-22 04:00: 0.3250
2025-06-22 05:00: 0.3200
2025-06-22 06:00: 0.3250
2025-06-22 07:00: 0.3250
2025-06-22 08:00: 0.3250
2025-06-22 09:00: 0.3250
2025-06-22 10:00: 0.3250
2025-06-22 11:00: 0.3200
2025-06-22 12:00: 0.3200
2025-06-22 13:00: 0.3200
2025-06-22 14:00: 0.3200
2025-06-22 15:00: 0.3200
2025-06-22 16:00: 0.3200
2025-06-22 17:00: 0.3200
2025-06-22 18:00: 0.3200
2025-06-22 19:00: 0.3200
2025-06-22 20:00: 0.3200
2025-06-22 21:00: 0.3200
Trade Summary: Total trades: 14, Buy volume: 1115.96, Sell volume: 45.00, Average price: 0.5343, Price range: 0.3000 - 0.7137

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 554573
Question: Will Brad Lander’s vote share be between 6% and 9% in the first round of the NYC Democratic mayoral primary?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 6087.560685
Price History:
2025-06-23 07:00: 0.7250
2025-06-23 08:00: 0.7250
2025-06-23 09:00: 0.7500
2025-06-23 10:00: 0.7550
2025-06-23 11:00: 0.7550
2025-06-23 12:00: 0.8450
2025-06-23 13:00: 0.8400
2025-06-23 14:00: 0.8450
2025-06-23 15:00: 0.8300
2025-06-23 16:00: 0.8800
2025-06-23 17:00: 0.8700
2025-06-23 18:00: 0.8250
2025-06-23 19:00: 0.8050
2025-06-23 20:00: 0.8600
2025-06-23 21:00: 0.8600
2025-06-23 22:00: 0.8600
2025-06-23 23:00: 0.8600
2025-06-24 00:00: 0.8550
2025-06-24 01:00: 0.8600
2025-06-24 02:00: 0.8600
2025-06-24 03:00: 0.8600
2025-06-24 04:00: 0.8600
2025-06-24 05:00: 0.8550
2025-06-24 06:00: 0.8600
2025-06-24 07:00: 0.8600
2025-06-24 08:00: 0.8600
2025-06-24 09:00: 0.8600
2025-06-24 10:00: 0.8600
2025-06-24 11:00: 0.8600
2025-06-24 12:00: 0.8600
2025-06-24 13:00: 0.8600
2025-06-24 14:00: 0.8550
2025-06-24 15:00: 0.8550
2025-06-24 16:00: 0.8600
2025-06-24 17:00: 0.8600
2025-06-24 18:00: 0.8650
2025-06-24 19:00: 0.8500
2025-06-24 20:00: 0.9150
2025-06-24 21:00: 0.8850
2025-06-24 22:00: 0.8400
2025-06-24 23:00: 0.8400
2025-06-25 00:00: 0.8400
2025-06-25 01:00: 0.8400
2025-06-25 02:00: 0.8400
2025-06-25 03:00: 0.8400
2025-06-25 04:00: 0.8400
2025-06-25 05:00: 0.8400
2025-06-25 06:00: 0.8400
2025-06-25 07:00: 0.9670
2025-06-25 08:00: 0.9595
Trade Summary: Total trades: 34, Buy volume: 911.69, Sell volume: 665.06, Average price: 0.6037, Price range: 0.0015 - 0.9990

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 554573
Question: Will Brad Lander’s vote share be between 6% and 9% in the first round of the NYC Democratic mayoral primary?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 6087.560685
Price History:
2025-06-25 19:00: 0.0015
2025-06-25 20:00: 0.0015
2025-06-25 21:00: 0.0015
2025-06-25 22:00: 0.0015
2025-06-25 23:00: 0.0015
2025-06-26 00:00: 0.0015
2025-06-26 01:00: 0.0015
2025-06-26 02:00: 0.0015
2025-06-26 03:00: 0.0045
2025-06-26 04:00: 0.0045
2025-06-26 05:00: 0.0035
2025-06-26 06:00: 0.0040
2025-06-26 07:00: 0.0045
2025-06-26 08:00: 0.0040
2025-06-26 09:00: 0.0040
2025-06-26 10:00: 0.0045
2025-06-26 11:00: 0.0040
2025-06-26 12:00: 0.0040
2025-06-26 13:00: 0.0040
2025-06-26 14:00: 0.0040
2025-06-26 15:00: 0.0035
2025-06-26 16:00: 0.0040
2025-06-26 17:00: 0.0045
2025-06-26 18:00: 0.0045
2025-06-26 19:00: 0.0045
2025-06-26 20:00: 0.0045
2025-06-26 21:00: 0.0045
2025-06-26 22:00: 0.0045
2025-06-26 23:00: 0.0045
2025-06-27 00:00: 0.0040
2025-06-27 01:00: 0.0040
2025-06-27 02:00: 0.0040
2025-06-27 03:00: 0.0040
2025-06-27 04:00: 0.0035
2025-06-27 05:00: 0.0040
2025-06-27 06:00: 0.0040
2025-06-27 07:00: 0.0040
2025-06-27 08:00: 0.0040
2025-06-27 09:00: 0.0040
2025-06-27 10:00: 0.0045
2025-06-27 11:00: 0.0040
2025-06-27 12:00: 0.0040
2025-06-27 13:00: 0.0040
2025-06-27 14:00: 0.0045
2025-06-27 15:00: 0.0045
2025-06-27 16:00: 0.0045
2025-06-27 17:00: 0.0045
2025-06-27 18:00: 0.0040
2025-06-27 19:00: 0.0040
2025-06-27 20:00: 0.0040
Trade Summary: Total trades: 29, Buy volume: 615.58, Sell volume: 254.58, Average price: 0.8590, Price range: 0.0020 - 0.9970

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 554573
Question: Will Brad Lander’s vote share be between 6% and 9% in the first round of the NYC Democratic mayoral primary?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 6087.560685
Price History:
2025-06-28 06:00: 0.9965
2025-06-28 07:00: 0.9960
2025-06-28 08:00: 0.9960
2025-06-28 09:00: 0.9960
2025-06-28 10:00: 0.9960
2025-06-28 11:00: 0.9955
2025-06-28 12:00: 0.9955
2025-06-28 13:00: 0.9955
2025-06-28 14:00: 0.9955
2025-06-28 15:00: 0.9960
2025-06-28 16:00: 0.9960
2025-06-28 17:00: 0.9955
2025-06-28 18:00: 0.9970
2025-06-28 19:00: 0.9970
2025-06-28 20:00: 0.9970
2025-06-28 21:00: 0.9970
2025-06-28 22:00: 0.9970
2025-06-28 23:00: 0.9970
2025-06-29 00:00: 0.9970
2025-06-29 01:00: 0.9970
2025-06-29 02:00: 0.9970
2025-06-29 03:00: 0.9970
2025-06-29 04:00: 0.9970
2025-06-29 05:00: 0.9970
2025-06-29 06:00: 0.9970
2025-06-29 07:00: 0.9970
2025-06-29 08:00: 0.9970
2025-06-29 09:00: 0.9970
2025-06-29 10:00: 0.9970
2025-06-29 11:00: 0.9970
2025-06-29 12:00: 0.9970
2025-06-29 13:00: 0.9970
2025-06-29 14:00: 0.9970
2025-06-29 15:00: 0.9970
2025-06-29 16:00: 0.9970
2025-06-29 17:00: 0.9970
2025-06-29 18:00: 0.9970
2025-06-29 19:00: 0.9970
2025-06-29 20:00: 0.9970
2025-06-29 21:00: 0.9970
2025-06-29 22:00: 0.9970
2025-06-29 23:00: 0.9970
2025-06-30 00:00: 0.9970
2025-06-30 01:00: 0.9970
2025-06-30 02:00: 0.9970
2025-06-30 03:00: 0.9970
2025-06-30 04:00: 0.9970
2025-06-30 05:00: 0.9970
2025-06-30 06:00: 0.9970
2025-06-30 07:00: 0.9970
Trade Summary: Total trades: 1, Buy volume: 22.84, Sell volume: 0.00, Average price: 0.9990, Price range: 0.9990 - 0.9990

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 554573
Question: Will Brad Lander’s vote share be between 6% and 9% in the first round of the NYC Democratic mayoral primary?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 6087.560685
Price History:
2025-06-30 18:00: 0.0030
2025-06-30 19:00: 0.0030
2025-06-30 20:00: 0.0030
2025-06-30 21:00: 0.0030
2025-06-30 22:00: 0.0030
2025-06-30 23:00: 0.0030
2025-07-01 00:00: 0.0030
2025-07-01 01:00: 0.0030
2025-07-01 02:00: 0.0030
2025-07-01 03:00: 0.0030
2025-07-01 04:00: 0.0030
2025-07-01 05:00: 0.0025
2025-07-01 06:00: 0.0015
2025-07-01 07:00: 0.0015
2025-07-01 08:00: 0.0015
2025-07-01 09:00: 0.0015
2025-07-01 10:00: 0.0015
2025-07-01 11:00: 0.0015
2025-07-01 12:00: 0.0015
2025-07-01 13:00: 0.0015
2025-07-01 14:00: 0.0015
2025-07-01 15:00: 0.0030
2025-07-01 16:00: 0.0025
2025-07-01 17:00: 0.0025
2025-07-01 18:00: 0.0020
2025-07-01 19:00: 0.0020
2025-07-01 20:00: 0.0020
2025-07-01 21:00: 0.0020
2025-07-01 22:00: 0.0020
2025-07-01 23:00: 0.0020
2025-07-02 00:00: 0.0015
2025-07-02 01:00: 0.0015
2025-07-02 02:00: 0.0015
2025-07-02 03:00: 0.0015
2025-07-02 04:00: 0.0015
2025-07-02 05:00: 0.0015
2025-07-02 06:00: 0.0015
2025-07-02 07:00: 0.0015
2025-07-02 08:00: 0.0015
2025-07-02 09:00: 0.0015
2025-07-02 10:00: 0.0030
2025-07-02 11:00: 0.0030
2025-07-02 12:00: 0.0030
2025-07-02 13:00: 0.0030
2025-07-02 14:00: 0.0030
2025-07-02 15:00: 0.0030
2025-07-02 16:00: 0.0030
2025-07-02 17:00: 0.0030
2025-07-02 18:00: 0.0030
2025-07-02 19:00: 0.0030
Trade Summary: Total trades: 5, Buy volume: 89.76, Sell volume: 29.41, Average price: 0.4010, Price range: 0.0010 - 0.9990

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 554573
Question: Will Brad Lander’s vote share be between 6% and 9% in the first round of the NYC Democratic mayoral primary?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 6087.560685
Price History:
2025-07-03 05:00: 0.9970
2025-07-03 06:00: 0.9970
2025-07-03 07:00: 0.9970
2025-07-03 08:00: 0.9970
2025-07-03 09:00: 0.9970
2025-07-03 10:00: 0.9970
2025-07-03 11:00: 0.9970
2025-07-03 12:00: 0.9970
2025-07-03 13:00: 0.9970
2025-07-03 14:00: 0.9970
2025-07-03 15:00: 0.9970
2025-07-03 16:00: 0.9970
2025-07-03 17:00: 0.9970
2025-07-03 18:00: 0.9970
2025-07-03 19:00: 0.9970
2025-07-03 20:00: 0.9970
2025-07-03 21:00: 0.9970
2025-07-03 22:00: 0.9970
2025-07-03 23:00: 0.9970
2025-07-04 00:00: 0.9970
2025-07-04 01:00: 0.9970
2025-07-04 02:00: 0.9970
2025-07-04 03:00: 0.9970
2025-07-04 04:00: 0.9970
2025-07-04 05:00: 0.9970
2025-07-04 06:00: 0.9970
2025-07-04 07:00: 0.9970
2025-07-04 08:00: 0.7495
2025-07-04 09:00: 0.7495
2025-07-04 10:00: 0.9920
2025-07-04 11:00: 0.9920
2025-07-04 12:00: 0.9920
2025-07-04 13:00: 0.9925
2025-07-04 14:00: 0.9925
2025-07-04 15:00: 0.9925
2025-07-04 16:00: 0.9925
2025-07-04 17:00: 0.9925
2025-07-04 18:00: 0.9925
2025-07-04 19:00: 0.9925
2025-07-04 20:00: 0.9925
2025-07-04 21:00: 0.9925
2025-07-04 22:00: 0.9925
2025-07-04 23:00: 0.9925
2025-07-05 00:00: 0.9925
2025-07-05 01:00: 0.9925
2025-07-05 02:00: 0.9925
2025-07-05 03:00: 0.9925
2025-07-05 04:00: 0.9925
2025-07-05 05:00: 0.9925
2025-07-05 06:00: 0.9925
Trade Summary: Total trades: 52, Buy volume: 1866.25, Sell volume: 41.35, Average price: 0.8616, Price range: 0.0010 - 0.9990

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 554573
Question: Will Brad Lander’s vote share be between 6% and 9% in the first round of the NYC Democratic mayoral primary?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 6087.560685
Price History:
2025-07-05 17:00: 0.0075
2025-07-05 18:00: 0.0075
2025-07-05 19:00: 0.0075
2025-07-05 20:00: 0.0005
2025-07-05 21:00: 0.0005
2025-07-05 22:00: 0.0005
2025-07-05 23:00: 0.0005
2025-07-06 00:00: 0.0005
2025-07-06 01:00: 0.0005
2025-07-06 02:00: 0.0005
2025-07-06 03:00: 0.0005
2025-07-06 04:00: 0.0005
2025-07-06 05:00: 0.0005
2025-07-06 06:00: 0.0005
2025-07-06 07:00: 0.0005
2025-07-06 08:00: 0.0005
2025-07-06 09:00: 0.0005
2025-07-06 10:00: 0.0005
2025-07-06 11:00: 0.0005
2025-07-06 12:00: 0.0005
2025-07-06 13:00: 0.0005
2025-07-06 14:00: 0.0005
2025-07-06 15:00: 0.0005
2025-07-06 16:00: 0.0005
2025-07-06 17:00: 0.0005
2025-07-06 18:00: 0.0005
2025-07-06 19:00: 0.0005
2025-07-06 20:00: 0.0005
2025-07-06 21:00: 0.0005
2025-07-06 22:00: 0.0005
2025-07-06 23:00: 0.0005
2025-07-07 00:00: 0.0005
2025-07-07 01:00: 0.0005
2025-07-07 02:00: 0.0005
2025-07-07 03:00: 0.0005
2025-07-07 04:00: 0.0005
2025-07-07 05:00: 0.0005
2025-07-07 06:00: 0.0005
2025-07-07 07:00: 0.0005
2025-07-07 08:00: 0.0005
2025-07-07 09:00: 0.0005
2025-07-07 10:00: 0.0005
2025-07-07 11:00: 0.0005
2025-07-07 12:00: 0.0005
2025-07-07 13:00: 0.0005
2025-07-07 14:00: 0.0005
2025-07-07 15:00: 0.0005
2025-07-07 16:00: 0.0005
2025-07-07 17:00: 0.0005
2025-07-07 18:00: 0.0005
Trade Summary: Total trades: 172, Buy volume: 4986.55, Sell volume: 1101.01, Average price: 0.7865, Price range: 0.0010 - 0.9990

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 554573
Question: Will Brad Lander’s vote share be between 6% and 9% in the first round of the NYC Democratic mayoral primary?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 6087.560685
Price History:
2025-07-08 04:00: 0.9995
2025-07-08 05:00: 0.9995
2025-07-08 06:00: 0.9995
2025-07-08 07:00: 0.9995
2025-07-08 08:00: 0.9995
2025-07-08 09:00: 0.9925
2025-07-08 10:00: 0.9925
2025-07-08 11:00: 0.9925
2025-07-08 12:00: 0.9925
2025-07-08 13:00: 0.9925
2025-07-08 14:00: 0.9925
2025-07-08 15:00: 0.9925
2025-07-08 16:00: 0.9925
2025-07-08 17:00: 0.9925
2025-07-08 18:00: 0.9925
2025-07-08 19:00: 0.9925
2025-07-08 20:00: 0.9925
2025-07-08 21:00: 0.9925
2025-07-08 22:00: 0.9945
2025-07-08 23:00: 0.9950
2025-07-09 00:00: 0.9925
2025-07-09 01:00: 0.9925
2025-07-09 02:00: 0.9925
2025-07-09 03:00: 0.9925
2025-07-09 04:00: 0.9925
2025-07-09 05:00: 0.9925
2025-07-09 06:00: 0.9925
2025-07-09 07:00: 0.9925
2025-07-09 08:00: 0.9935
2025-07-09 09:00: 0.9950
2025-07-09 10:00: 0.9925
2025-07-09 11:00: 0.9925
2025-07-09 12:00: 0.9925
2025-07-09 13:00: 0.9935
2025-07-09 14:00: 0.9950
2025-07-09 15:00: 0.9935
2025-07-09 16:00: 0.9945
2025-07-09 17:00: 0.9925
2025-07-09 18:00: 0.9945
2025-07-09 19:00: 0.9925
2025-07-09 20:00: 0.9935
2025-07-09 21:00: 0.9950
2025-07-09 22:00: 0.9930
2025-07-09 23:00: 0.9935
2025-07-10 00:00: 0.9935
2025-07-10 01:00: 0.9925
2025-07-10 02:00: 0.9935
2025-07-10 03:00: 0.9925
2025-07-10 04:00: 0.9935
2025-07-10 05:00: 0.9930
Trade Summary: Total trades: 1, Buy volume: 253.01, Sell volume: 0.00, Average price: 0.0040, Price range: 0.0040 - 0.0040

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 554573
Question: Will Brad Lander’s vote share be between 6% and 9% in the first round of the NYC Democratic mayoral primary?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 6087.560685
Price History:
2025-07-10 16:00: 0.0050
2025-07-10 17:00: 0.0050
2025-07-10 18:00: 0.0075
2025-07-10 19:00: 0.0055
2025-07-10 20:00: 0.0070
2025-07-10 21:00: 0.0050
2025-07-10 22:00: 0.0075
2025-07-10 23:00: 0.0075
2025-07-11 00:00: 0.0055
2025-07-11 01:00: 0.0075
2025-07-11 02:00: 0.0055
2025-07-11 03:00: 0.0050
2025-07-11 04:00: 0.0050
2025-07-11 05:00: 0.0075
2025-07-11 06:00: 0.0070
2025-07-11 07:00: 0.0075
2025-07-11 08:00: 0.0075
2025-07-11 09:00: 0.0075
2025-07-11 10:00: 0.0075
2025-07-11 11:00: 0.0075
2025-07-11 12:00: 0.0075
2025-07-11 13:00: 0.0075
2025-07-11 14:00: 0.0075
2025-07-11 15:00: 0.0075
2025-07-11 16:00: 0.0075
2025-07-11 17:00: 0.0075
2025-07-11 18:00: 0.0075
2025-07-11 19:00: 0.0075
2025-07-11 20:00: 0.0075
2025-07-11 21:00: 0.0075
2025-07-11 22:00: 0.0075
2025-07-11 23:00: 0.0075
2025-07-12 00:00: 0.0075
2025-07-12 01:00: 0.0075
2025-07-12 02:00: 0.0075
2025-07-12 03:00: 0.0075
2025-07-12 04:00: 0.0075
2025-07-12 05:00: 0.0075
2025-07-12 06:00: 0.0075
2025-07-12 07:00: 0.0075
2025-07-12 08:00: 0.0075
2025-07-12 09:00: 0.0075
2025-07-12 10:00: 0.0075
2025-07-12 11:00: 0.0080
2025-07-12 12:00: 0.0080
2025-07-12 13:00: 0.0075
2025-07-12 14:00: 0.0075
2025-07-12 15:00: 0.0075
2025-07-12 16:00: 0.0080
2025-07-12 17:00: 0.0080
Trade Summary: Total trades: 1, Buy volume: 0.00, Sell volume: 7.77, Average price: 0.0010, Price range: 0.0010 - 0.0010

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 554573
Question: Will Brad Lander’s vote share be between 6% and 9% in the first round of the NYC Democratic mayoral primary?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 6087.560685
Price History:
2025-07-13 03:00: 0.9920
2025-07-13 04:00: 0.9920
2025-07-13 05:00: 0.9920
2025-07-13 06:00: 0.9925
2025-07-13 07:00: 0.9920
2025-07-13 08:00: 0.9920
2025-07-13 09:00: 0.9920
2025-07-13 10:00: 0.9920
2025-07-13 11:00: 0.9920
2025-07-13 12:00: 0.9925
2025-07-13 13:00: 0.9935
2025-07-13 14:00: 0.9930
2025-07-13 15:00: 0.9930
2025-07-13 16:00: 0.9930
2025-07-13 17:00: 0.9935
2025-07-13 18:00: 0.9920
2025-07-13 19:00: 0.9920
2025-07-13 20:00: 0.9995
2025-07-13 21:00: 0.9995
2025-07-13 22:00: 0.9995
2025-07-13 23:00: 0.9995
2025-07-14 00:00: 0.9995
2025-07-14 01:00: 0.9995
2025-07-14 02:00: 0.9995
2025-07-14 03:00: 0.9995
2025-07-14 04:00: 0.9995
2025-07-14 05:00: 0.9995
2025-07-14 06:00: 0.9995
2025-07-14 07:00: 0.9995
2025-07-14 08:00: 0.9995
2025-07-14 09:00: 0.9995
2025-07-14 10:00: 0.9995
2025-07-14 11:00: 0.9995
2025-07-14 12:00: 0.9995
2025-07-14 13:00: 0.9995
2025-07-14 14:00: 0.9995
2025-07-14 15:00: 0.9995
2025-07-14 16:00: 0.9995
2025-07-14 17:00: 0.9995
2025-07-14 18:00: 0.9995
2025-07-14 19:00: 0.9995
2025-07-14 20:00: 0.9995
2025-07-14 21:00: 0.9995
2025-07-14 22:00: 0.9995
2025-07-14 23:00: 0.9995
2025-07-15 00:00: 0.9995
2025-07-15 01:00: 0.9995
2025-07-15 02:00: 0.9995
2025-07-15 03:00: 0.9995
2025-07-15 04:00: 0.9995
Trade Summary: Total trades: 1, Buy volume: 111.46, Sell volume: 0.00, Average price: 0.9990, Price range: 0.9990 - 0.9990

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 554573
Question: Will Brad Lander’s vote share be between 6% and 9% in the first round of the NYC Democratic mayoral primary?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 6087.560685
Price History:
2025-07-15 15:00: 0.0005
2025-07-15 16:00: 0.0005
2025-07-15 17:00: 0.0005
2025-07-15 18:00: 0.0005
2025-07-15 19:00: 0.0005
2025-07-15 20:00: 0.0005
2025-07-15 21:00: 0.0005
2025-07-15 22:00: 0.0005
2025-07-15 23:00: 0.0005
2025-07-16 00:00: 0.0005
2025-07-16 01:00: 0.0005
2025-07-16 02:00: 0.0005
2025-07-16 03:00: 0.0005
2025-07-16 04:00: 0.0005
2025-07-16 05:00: 0.0005
2025-07-16 06:00: 0.0005
2025-07-16 07:00: 0.0005
2025-07-16 08:00: 0.0005
2025-07-16 09:00: 0.0005
2025-07-16 10:00: 0.0005
2025-07-16 11:00: 0.0005
2025-07-16 12:00: 0.0005
2025-07-16 13:00: 0.0005
2025-07-16 14:00: 0.0005
2025-07-16 15:00: 0.0005
2025-07-16 16:00: 0.0005
2025-07-16 17:00: 0.0005
2025-07-16 18:00: 0.0005
2025-07-16 19:00: 0.0005
2025-07-16 20:00: 0.0005
2025-07-16 21:00: 0.0005
2025-07-16 22:00: 0.0005
2025-07-16 23:00: 0.0005
2025-07-17 00:00: 0.0005
2025-07-17 01:00: 0.0005
2025-07-17 02:00: 0.0005
2025-07-17 03:00: 0.0005
2025-07-17 04:00: 0.0005
2025-07-17 05:00: 0.0005
2025-07-17 06:00: 0.0005
2025-07-17 07:00: 0.0005
2025-07-17 08:00: 0.0005
2025-07-17 09:00: 0.0005
2025-07-17 10:00: 0.0005
2025-07-17 11:00: 0.0005
2025-07-17 12:00: 0.0005
2025-07-17 13:00: 0.0005
2025-07-17 14:00: 0.0005
2025-07-17 15:00: 0.0005
2025-07-17 16:00: 0.0005
Trade Summary: Total trades: 172, Buy volume: 4986.55, Sell volume: 1101.01, Average price: 0.7865, Price range: 0.0010 - 0.9990

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 554573
Question: Will Brad Lander’s vote share be between 6% and 9% in the first round of the NYC Democratic mayoral primary?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 6087.560685
Price History:
2025-07-18 02:00: 0.9995
2025-07-18 03:00: 0.9995
2025-07-18 04:00: 0.9995
2025-07-18 05:00: 0.9995
2025-07-18 06:00: 0.9995
2025-07-18 07:00: 0.9995
2025-07-18 08:00: 0.9995
2025-07-18 09:00: 0.9995
2025-07-18 10:00: 0.9995
2025-07-18 11:00: 0.9995
2025-07-18 12:00: 0.9995
2025-07-18 13:00: 0.9995
2025-07-18 14:00: 0.9995
2025-07-18 15:00: 0.9995
2025-07-18 16:00: 0.9995
2025-07-18 17:00: 0.9995
2025-07-18 18:00: 0.9995
2025-07-18 19:00: 0.9995
2025-07-18 20:00: 0.9995
2025-07-18 21:00: 0.9995
2025-07-18 22:00: 0.9995
2025-07-18 23:00: 0.9995
2025-07-19 00:00: 0.9995
2025-07-19 01:00: 0.9995
2025-07-19 02:00: 0.9995
2025-07-19 03:00: 0.9995
2025-07-19 04:00: 0.9995
2025-07-19 05:00: 0.9995
2025-07-19 06:00: 0.9995
2025-07-19 07:00: 0.9995
2025-07-19 08:00: 0.9995
2025-07-19 09:00: 0.9995
2025-07-19 10:00: 0.9995
2025-07-19 11:00: 0.9995
2025-07-19 12:00: 0.9995
2025-07-19 13:00: 0.9925
2025-07-19 14:00: 0.9925
2025-07-19 15:00: 0.9925
2025-07-19 16:00: 0.9925
2025-07-19 17:00: 0.9925
2025-07-19 18:00: 0.9925
2025-07-19 19:00: 0.9925
2025-07-19 20:00: 0.9925
2025-07-19 21:00: 0.9925
2025-07-19 22:00: 0.9925
2025-07-19 23:00: 0.9925
2025-07-20 00:00: 0.9925
2025-07-20 01:00: 0.9925
2025-07-20 02:00: 0.9925
2025-07-20 03:00: 0.9925
Trade Summary: Total trades: 34, Buy volume: 0.00, Sell volume: 57.84, Average price: 0.9866, Price range: 0.9850 - 0.9990

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 554573
Question: Will Brad Lander’s vote share be between 6% and 9% in the first round of the NYC Democratic mayoral primary?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 6087.560685
Price History:
2025-07-20 14:00: 0.0075
2025-07-20 15:00: 0.0075
2025-07-20 16:00: 0.0075
2025-07-20 17:00: 0.0075
2025-07-20 18:00: 0.0075
2025-07-20 19:00: 0.0075
2025-07-20 20:00: 0.0075
2025-07-20 21:00: 0.0075
2025-07-20 22:00: 0.0075
2025-07-20 23:00: 0.0075
2025-07-21 00:00: 0.0075
2025-07-21 01:00: 0.0075
2025-07-21 02:00: 0.0075
2025-07-21 03:00: 0.0075
2025-07-21 04:00: 0.0075
2025-07-21 05:00: 0.0075
2025-07-21 06:00: 0.0075
2025-07-21 07:00: 0.0075
2025-07-21 08:00: 0.0075
2025-07-21 09:00: 0.0075
2025-07-21 10:00: 0.0075
2025-07-21 11:00: 0.0075
2025-07-21 12:00: 0.0075
2025-07-21 13:00: 0.0075
2025-07-21 14:00: 0.0075
2025-07-21 15:00: 0.0075
2025-07-21 16:00: 0.0075
2025-07-21 17:00: 0.0075
2025-07-21 18:00: 0.0050
2025-07-21 19:00: 0.0050
2025-07-21 20:00: 0.0050
2025-07-21 21:00: 0.0050
2025-07-21 22:00: 0.0050
2025-07-21 23:00: 0.0050
2025-07-22 00:00: 0.0050
2025-07-22 01:00: 0.0050
2025-07-22 02:00: 0.0050
2025-07-22 03:00: 0.0050
2025-07-22 04:00: 0.0050
2025-07-22 05:00: 0.0050
2025-07-22 06:00: 0.0050
2025-07-22 07:00: 0.0050
2025-07-22 08:00: 0.0050
2025-07-22 09:00: 0.0050
2025-07-22 10:00: 0.0050
2025-07-22 11:00: 0.0050
2025-07-22 12:00: 0.0050
2025-07-22 13:00: 0.0050
2025-07-22 14:00: 0.0050
2025-07-22 15:00: 0.0050
Trade Summary: Total trades: 172, Buy volume: 4986.55, Sell volume: 1101.01, Average price: 0.7865, Price range: 0.0010 - 0.9990

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 554573
Question: Will Brad Lander’s vote share be between 6% and 9% in the first round of the NYC Democratic mayoral primary?
Volume: 6087.560685
Price History:
2025-06-20 20:00: 0.2750
2025-06-20 21:00: 0.7250
2025-06-20 23:00: 0.2700
2025-06-21 00:00: 0.7300
2025-06-21 02:00: 0.2650
2025-06-21 03:00: 0.7300
2025-06-21 05:00: 0.2700
2025-06-21 06:00: 0.6750
2025-06-21 08:00: 0.3250
2025-06-21 09:00: 0.6800
2025-06-21 11:00: 0.3200
2025-06-21 12:00: 0.6800
2025-06-21 14:00: 0.3200
2025-06-21 15:00: 0.6800
2025-06-21 17:00: 0.3200
2025-06-21 18:00: 0.6800
2025-06-21 20:00: 0.3200
2025-06-21 21:00: 0.6800
2025-06-21 23:00: 0.3200
2025-06-22 00:00: 0.6800
2025-06-22 02:00: 0.3200
2025-06-22 03:00: 0.6800
2025-06-22 05:00: 0.3200
2025-06-22 06:00: 0.6750
2025-06-22 08:00: 0.3250
2025-06-22 09:00: 0.6750
2025-06-22 11:00: 0.3200
2025-06-22 12:00: 0.6800
2025-06-22 14:00: 0.3200
2025-06-22 15:00: 0.6800
Trade Summary: Total trades: 14, Buy volume: 1115.96, Sell volume: 45.00, Average price: 0.5343, Price range: 0.3000 - 0.7137
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility

Output: No


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 554573
Question: Will Brad Lander’s vote share be between 6% and 9% in the first round of the NYC Democratic mayoral primary?
Volume: 6087.560685
Price History:
2025-06-23 07:00: 0.7250
2025-06-23 09:00: 0.2500
2025-06-23 10:00: 0.7550
2025-06-23 12:00: 0.1550
2025-06-23 13:00: 0.8400
2025-06-23 15:00: 0.1700
2025-06-23 16:00: 0.8800
2025-06-23 18:00: 0.1750
2025-06-23 19:00: 0.8050
2025-06-23 21:00: 0.1400
2025-06-23 22:00: 0.8600
2025-06-24 00:00: 0.1450
2025-06-24 01:00: 0.8600
2025-06-24 03:00: 0.1400
2025-06-24 04:00: 0.8600
2025-06-24 06:00: 0.1400
2025-06-24 07:00: 0.8600
2025-06-24 09:00: 0.1400
2025-06-24 10:00: 0.8600
2025-06-24 12:00: 0.1400
2025-06-24 13:00: 0.8600
2025-06-24 15:00: 0.1450
2025-06-24 16:00: 0.8600
2025-06-24 18:00: 0.1350
2025-06-24 19:00: 0.8500
2025-06-24 21:00: 0.1150
2025-06-24 22:00: 0.8400
2025-06-25 00:00: 0.1600
2025-06-25 01:00: 0.8400
2025-06-25 03:00: 0.1600
Trade Summary: Total trades: 34, Buy volume: 911.69, Sell volume: 665.06, Average price: 0.6037, Price range: 0.0015 - 0.9990
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 554573
Question: Will Brad Lander’s vote share be between 6% and 9% in the first round of the NYC Democratic mayoral primary?
Volume: 6087.560685
Price History:
2025-06-25 19:00: 0.0015
2025-06-25 20:00: 0.9985
2025-06-25 22:00: 0.0015
2025-06-25 23:00: 0.9985
2025-06-26 01:00: 0.0015
2025-06-26 02:00: 0.9985
2025-06-26 04:00: 0.0045
2025-06-26 05:00: 0.9965
2025-06-26 07:00: 0.0045
2025-06-26 08:00: 0.9960
2025-06-26 10:00: 0.0045
2025-06-26 11:00: 0.9960
2025-06-26 13:00: 0.0040
2025-06-26 14:00: 0.9960
2025-06-26 16:00: 0.0040
2025-06-26 17:00: 0.9955
2025-06-26 19:00: 0.0045
2025-06-26 20:00: 0.9955
2025-06-26 22:00: 0.0045
2025-06-26 23:00: 0.9955
2025-06-27 01:00: 0.0040
2025-06-27 02:00: 0.9960
2025-06-27 04:00: 0.0035
2025-06-27 05:00: 0.9960
2025-06-27 07:00: 0.0040
2025-06-27 08:00: 0.9960
2025-06-27 10:00: 0.0045
2025-06-27 11:00: 0.9960
2025-06-27 13:00: 0.0040
2025-06-27 14:00: 0.9955
Trade Summary: Total trades: 29, Buy volume: 615.58, Sell volume: 254.58, Average price: 0.8590, Price range: 0.0020 - 0.9970
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 554573
Question: Will Brad Lander’s vote share be between 6% and 9% in the first round of the NYC Democratic mayoral primary?
Volume: 6087.560685
Price History:
2025-06-28 06:00: 0.9965
2025-06-28 08:00: 0.0040
2025-06-28 09:00: 0.9960
2025-06-28 11:00: 0.0045
2025-06-28 12:00: 0.9955
2025-06-28 14:00: 0.0045
2025-06-28 15:00: 0.9960
2025-06-28 17:00: 0.0045
2025-06-28 18:00: 0.9970
2025-06-28 20:00: 0.0030
2025-06-28 21:00: 0.9970
2025-06-28 23:00: 0.0030
2025-06-29 00:00: 0.9970
2025-06-29 02:00: 0.0030
2025-06-29 03:00: 0.9970
2025-06-29 05:00: 0.0030
2025-06-29 06:00: 0.9970
2025-06-29 08:00: 0.0030
2025-06-29 09:00: 0.9970
2025-06-29 11:00: 0.0030
2025-06-29 12:00: 0.9970
2025-06-29 14:00: 0.0030
2025-06-29 15:00: 0.9970
2025-06-29 17:00: 0.0030
2025-06-29 18:00: 0.9970
2025-06-29 20:00: 0.0030
2025-06-29 21:00: 0.9970
2025-06-29 23:00: 0.0030
2025-06-30 00:00: 0.9970
2025-06-30 02:00: 0.0030
Trade Summary: Total trades: 1, Buy volume: 22.84, Sell volume: 0.00, Average price: 0.9990, Price range: 0.9990 - 0.9990
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 554573
Question: Will Brad Lander’s vote share be between 6% and 9% in the first round of the NYC Democratic mayoral primary?
Volume: 6087.560685
Price History:
2025-06-30 18:00: 0.0030
2025-06-30 19:00: 0.9970
2025-06-30 21:00: 0.0030
2025-06-30 22:00: 0.9970
2025-07-01 00:00: 0.0030
2025-07-01 01:00: 0.9970
2025-07-01 03:00: 0.0030
2025-07-01 04:00: 0.9970
2025-07-01 06:00: 0.0015
2025-07-01 07:00: 0.9985
2025-07-01 09:00: 0.0015
2025-07-01 10:00: 0.9985
2025-07-01 12:00: 0.0015
2025-07-01 13:00: 0.9985
2025-07-01 15:00: 0.0030
2025-07-01 16:00: 0.9975
2025-07-01 18:00: 0.0020
2025-07-01 19:00: 0.9980
2025-07-01 21:00: 0.0020
2025-07-01 22:00: 0.9980
2025-07-02 00:00: 0.0015
2025-07-02 01:00: 0.9985
2025-07-02 03:00: 0.0015
2025-07-02 04:00: 0.9985
2025-07-02 06:00: 0.0015
2025-07-02 07:00: 0.9985
2025-07-02 09:00: 0.0015
2025-07-02 10:00: 0.9970
2025-07-02 12:00: 0.0030
2025-07-02 13:00: 0.9970
Trade Summary: Total trades: 5, Buy volume: 89.76, Sell volume: 29.41, Average price: 0.4010, Price range: 0.0010 - 0.9990
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 554573
Question: Will Brad Lander’s vote share be between 6% and 9% in the first round of the NYC Democratic mayoral primary?
Volume: 6087.560685
Price History:
2025-07-03 05:00: 0.9970
2025-07-03 07:00: 0.0030
2025-07-03 08:00: 0.9970
2025-07-03 10:00: 0.0030
2025-07-03 11:00: 0.9970
2025-07-03 13:00: 0.0030
2025-07-03 14:00: 0.9970
2025-07-03 16:00: 0.0030
2025-07-03 17:00: 0.9970
2025-07-03 19:00: 0.0030
2025-07-03 20:00: 0.9970
2025-07-03 22:00: 0.0030
2025-07-03 23:00: 0.9970
2025-07-04 01:00: 0.0030
2025-07-04 02:00: 0.9970
2025-07-04 04:00: 0.0030
2025-07-04 05:00: 0.9970
2025-07-04 07:00: 0.0030
2025-07-04 08:00: 0.7495
2025-07-04 10:00: 0.0080
2025-07-04 11:00: 0.9920
2025-07-04 13:00: 0.0075
2025-07-04 14:00: 0.9925
2025-07-04 16:00: 0.0075
2025-07-04 17:00: 0.9925
2025-07-04 19:00: 0.0075
2025-07-04 20:00: 0.9925
2025-07-04 22:00: 0.0075
2025-07-04 23:00: 0.9925
2025-07-05 01:00: 0.0075
Trade Summary: Total trades: 52, Buy volume: 1866.25, Sell volume: 41.35, Average price: 0.8616, Price range: 0.0010 - 0.9990
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 554573
Question: Will Brad Lander’s vote share be between 6% and 9% in the first round of the NYC Democratic mayoral primary?
Volume: 6087.560685
Price History:
2025-07-05 17:00: 0.0075
2025-07-05 18:00: 0.9925
2025-07-05 20:00: 0.0005
2025-07-05 21:00: 0.9995
2025-07-05 23:00: 0.0005
2025-07-06 00:00: 0.9995
2025-07-06 02:00: 0.0005
2025-07-06 03:00: 0.9995
2025-07-06 05:00: 0.0005
2025-07-06 06:00: 0.9995
2025-07-06 08:00: 0.0005
2025-07-06 09:00: 0.9995
2025-07-06 11:00: 0.0005
2025-07-06 12:00: 0.9995
2025-07-06 14:00: 0.0005
2025-07-06 15:00: 0.9995
2025-07-06 17:00: 0.0005
2025-07-06 18:00: 0.9995
2025-07-06 20:00: 0.0005
2025-07-06 21:00: 0.9995
2025-07-06 23:00: 0.0005
2025-07-07 00:00: 0.9995
2025-07-07 02:00: 0.0005
2025-07-07 03:00: 0.9995
2025-07-07 05:00: 0.0005
2025-07-07 06:00: 0.9995
2025-07-07 08:00: 0.0005
2025-07-07 09:00: 0.9995
2025-07-07 11:00: 0.0005
2025-07-07 12:00: 0.9995
Trade Summary: Total trades: 172, Buy volume: 4986.55, Sell volume: 1101.01, Average price: 0.7865, Price range: 0.0010 - 0.9990
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 554573
Question: Will Brad Lander’s vote share be between 6% and 9% in the first round of the NYC Democratic mayoral primary?
Volume: 6087.560685
Price History:
2025-07-08 04:00: 0.9995
2025-07-08 06:00: 0.0005
2025-07-08 07:00: 0.9995
2025-07-08 09:00: 0.0075
2025-07-08 10:00: 0.9925
2025-07-08 12:00: 0.0075
2025-07-08 13:00: 0.9925
2025-07-08 15:00: 0.0075
2025-07-08 16:00: 0.9925
2025-07-08 18:00: 0.0075
2025-07-08 19:00: 0.9925
2025-07-08 21:00: 0.0075
2025-07-08 22:00: 0.9945
2025-07-09 00:00: 0.0075
2025-07-09 01:00: 0.9925
2025-07-09 03:00: 0.0075
2025-07-09 04:00: 0.9925
2025-07-09 06:00: 0.0075
2025-07-09 07:00: 0.9925
2025-07-09 09:00: 0.0050
2025-07-09 10:00: 0.9925
2025-07-09 12:00: 0.0075
2025-07-09 13:00: 0.9935
2025-07-09 15:00: 0.0065
2025-07-09 16:00: 0.9945
2025-07-09 18:00: 0.0055
2025-07-09 19:00: 0.9925
2025-07-09 21:00: 0.0050
2025-07-09 22:00: 0.9930
2025-07-10 00:00: 0.0065
Trade Summary: Total trades: 1, Buy volume: 253.01, Sell volume: 0.00, Average price: 0.0040, Price range: 0.0040 - 0.0040
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 554573
Question: Will Brad Lander’s vote share be between 6% and 9% in the first round of the NYC Democratic mayoral primary?
Volume: 6087.560685
Price History:
2025-07-10 16:00: 0.0050
2025-07-10 17:00: 0.9950
2025-07-10 19:00: 0.0055
2025-07-10 20:00: 0.9930
2025-07-10 22:00: 0.0075
2025-07-10 23:00: 0.9925
2025-07-11 01:00: 0.0075
2025-07-11 02:00: 0.9945
2025-07-11 04:00: 0.0050
2025-07-11 05:00: 0.9925
2025-07-11 07:00: 0.0075
2025-07-11 08:00: 0.9925
2025-07-11 10:00: 0.0075
2025-07-11 11:00: 0.9925
2025-07-11 13:00: 0.0075
2025-07-11 14:00: 0.9925
2025-07-11 16:00: 0.0075
2025-07-11 17:00: 0.9925
2025-07-11 19:00: 0.0075
2025-07-11 20:00: 0.9925
2025-07-11 22:00: 0.0075
2025-07-11 23:00: 0.9925
2025-07-12 01:00: 0.0075
2025-07-12 02:00: 0.9925
2025-07-12 04:00: 0.0075
2025-07-12 05:00: 0.9925
2025-07-12 07:00: 0.0075
2025-07-12 08:00: 0.9925
2025-07-12 10:00: 0.0075
2025-07-12 11:00: 0.9920
Trade Summary: Total trades: 1, Buy volume: 0.00, Sell volume: 7.77, Average price: 0.0010, Price range: 0.0010 - 0.0010
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 554573
Question: Will Brad Lander’s vote share be between 6% and 9% in the first round of the NYC Democratic mayoral primary?
Volume: 6087.560685
Price History:
2025-07-13 03:00: 0.9920
2025-07-13 05:00: 0.0080
2025-07-13 06:00: 0.9925
2025-07-13 08:00: 0.0080
2025-07-13 09:00: 0.9920
2025-07-13 11:00: 0.0080
2025-07-13 12:00: 0.9925
2025-07-13 14:00: 0.0070
2025-07-13 15:00: 0.9930
2025-07-13 17:00: 0.0065
2025-07-13 18:00: 0.9920
2025-07-13 20:00: 0.0005
2025-07-13 21:00: 0.9995
2025-07-13 23:00: 0.0005
2025-07-14 00:00: 0.9995
2025-07-14 02:00: 0.0005
2025-07-14 03:00: 0.9995
2025-07-14 05:00: 0.0005
2025-07-14 06:00: 0.9995
2025-07-14 08:00: 0.0005
2025-07-14 09:00: 0.9995
2025-07-14 11:00: 0.0005
2025-07-14 12:00: 0.9995
2025-07-14 14:00: 0.0005
2025-07-14 15:00: 0.9995
2025-07-14 17:00: 0.0005
2025-07-14 18:00: 0.9995
2025-07-14 20:00: 0.0005
2025-07-14 21:00: 0.9995
2025-07-14 23:00: 0.0005
Trade Summary: Total trades: 1, Buy volume: 111.46, Sell volume: 0.00, Average price: 0.9990, Price range: 0.9990 - 0.9990
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 554573
Question: Will Brad Lander’s vote share be between 6% and 9% in the first round of the NYC Democratic mayoral primary?
Volume: 6087.560685
Price History:
2025-07-15 15:00: 0.0005
2025-07-15 16:00: 0.9995
2025-07-15 18:00: 0.0005
2025-07-15 19:00: 0.9995
2025-07-15 21:00: 0.0005
2025-07-15 22:00: 0.9995
2025-07-16 00:00: 0.0005
2025-07-16 01:00: 0.9995
2025-07-16 03:00: 0.0005
2025-07-16 04:00: 0.9995
2025-07-16 06:00: 0.0005
2025-07-16 07:00: 0.9995
2025-07-16 09:00: 0.0005
2025-07-16 10:00: 0.9995
2025-07-16 12:00: 0.0005
2025-07-16 13:00: 0.9995
2025-07-16 15:00: 0.0005
2025-07-16 16:00: 0.9995
2025-07-16 18:00: 0.0005
2025-07-16 19:00: 0.9995
2025-07-16 21:00: 0.0005
2025-07-16 22:00: 0.9995
2025-07-17 00:00: 0.0005
2025-07-17 01:00: 0.9995
2025-07-17 03:00: 0.0005
2025-07-17 04:00: 0.9995
2025-07-17 06:00: 0.0005
2025-07-17 07:00: 0.9995
2025-07-17 09:00: 0.0005
2025-07-17 10:00: 0.9995
Trade Summary: Total trades: 172, Buy volume: 4986.55, Sell volume: 1101.01, Average price: 0.7865, Price range: 0.0010 - 0.9990
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 554573
Question: Will Brad Lander’s vote share be between 6% and 9% in the first round of the NYC Democratic mayoral primary?
Volume: 6087.560685
Price History:
2025-07-18 02:00: 0.9995
2025-07-18 04:00: 0.0005
2025-07-18 05:00: 0.9995
2025-07-18 07:00: 0.0005
2025-07-18 08:00: 0.9995
2025-07-18 10:00: 0.0005
2025-07-18 11:00: 0.9995
2025-07-18 13:00: 0.0005
2025-07-18 14:00: 0.9995
2025-07-18 16:00: 0.0005
2025-07-18 17:00: 0.9995
2025-07-18 19:00: 0.0005
2025-07-18 20:00: 0.9995
2025-07-18 22:00: 0.0005
2025-07-18 23:00: 0.9995
2025-07-19 01:00: 0.0005
2025-07-19 02:00: 0.9995
2025-07-19 04:00: 0.0005
2025-07-19 05:00: 0.9995
2025-07-19 07:00: 0.0005
2025-07-19 08:00: 0.9995
2025-07-19 10:00: 0.0005
2025-07-19 11:00: 0.9995
2025-07-19 13:00: 0.0075
2025-07-19 14:00: 0.9925
2025-07-19 16:00: 0.0075
2025-07-19 17:00: 0.9925
2025-07-19 19:00: 0.0075
2025-07-19 20:00: 0.9925
2025-07-19 22:00: 0.0075
Trade Summary: Total trades: 34, Buy volume: 0.00, Sell volume: 57.84, Average price: 0.9866, Price range: 0.9850 - 0.9990
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 554573
Question: Will Brad Lander’s vote share be between 6% and 9% in the first round of the NYC Democratic mayoral primary?
Volume: 6087.560685
Price History:
2025-07-20 14:00: 0.0075
2025-07-20 15:00: 0.9925
2025-07-20 17:00: 0.0075
2025-07-20 18:00: 0.9925
2025-07-20 20:00: 0.0075
2025-07-20 21:00: 0.9925
2025-07-20 23:00: 0.0075
2025-07-21 00:00: 0.9925
2025-07-21 02:00: 0.0075
2025-07-21 03:00: 0.9925
2025-07-21 05:00: 0.0075
2025-07-21 06:00: 0.9925
2025-07-21 08:00: 0.0075
2025-07-21 09:00: 0.9925
2025-07-21 11:00: 0.0075
2025-07-21 12:00: 0.9925
2025-07-21 14:00: 0.0075
2025-07-21 15:00: 0.9925
2025-07-21 17:00: 0.0075
2025-07-21 18:00: 0.9950
2025-07-21 20:00: 0.0050
2025-07-21 21:00: 0.9950
2025-07-21 23:00: 0.0050
2025-07-22 00:00: 0.9950
2025-07-22 02:00: 0.0050
2025-07-22 03:00: 0.9950
2025-07-22 05:00: 0.0050
2025-07-22 06:00: 0.9950
2025-07-22 08:00: 0.0050
2025-07-22 09:00: 0.9950
Trade Summary: Total trades: 172, Buy volume: 4986.55, Sell volume: 1101.01, Average price: 0.7865, Price range: 0.0010 - 0.9990
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 554575
Question: Will Brad Lander’s vote share be between 12% and 15% in the first round of the NYC Democratic mayoral primary?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 15836.356804
Price History:
2025-06-20 20:00: 0.2450
2025-06-20 21:00: 0.2450
2025-06-20 22:00: 0.2500
2025-06-20 23:00: 0.1950
2025-06-21 00:00: 0.1950
2025-06-21 01:00: 0.1950
2025-06-21 02:00: 0.1950
2025-06-21 03:00: 0.1950
2025-06-21 04:00: 0.1950
2025-06-21 05:00: 0.2000
2025-06-21 06:00: 0.2000
2025-06-21 07:00: 0.1950
2025-06-21 08:00: 0.1950
2025-06-21 09:00: 0.1900
2025-06-21 10:00: 0.1900
2025-06-21 11:00: 0.1900
2025-06-21 12:00: 0.1900
2025-06-21 13:00: 0.1900
2025-06-21 14:00: 0.1900
2025-06-21 15:00: 0.1900
2025-06-21 16:00: 0.1900
2025-06-21 17:00: 0.1900
2025-06-21 18:00: 0.1900
2025-06-21 19:00: 0.1900
2025-06-21 20:00: 0.1900
2025-06-21 21:00: 0.1900
2025-06-21 22:00: 0.1900
2025-06-21 23:00: 0.1900
2025-06-22 00:00: 0.1900
2025-06-22 01:00: 0.1900
2025-06-22 02:00: 0.1900
2025-06-22 03:00: 0.1900
2025-06-22 04:00: 0.1900
2025-06-22 05:00: 0.1900
2025-06-22 06:00: 0.1900
2025-06-22 07:00: 0.1900
2025-06-22 08:00: 0.1900
2025-06-22 09:00: 0.1900
2025-06-22 10:00: 0.1900
2025-06-22 11:00: 0.1900
2025-06-22 12:00: 0.1900
2025-06-22 13:00: 0.1900
2025-06-22 14:00: 0.1900
2025-06-22 15:00: 0.1900
2025-06-22 16:00: 0.1900
2025-06-22 17:00: 0.1900
2025-06-22 18:00: 0.1900
2025-06-22 19:00: 0.1900
2025-06-22 20:00: 0.1900
2025-06-22 21:00: 0.1900
Trade Summary: Total trades: 1, Buy volume: 100.00, Sell volume: 0.00, Average price: 0.2000, Price range: 0.2000 - 0.2000

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 554575
Question: Will Brad Lander’s vote share be between 12% and 15% in the first round of the NYC Democratic mayoral primary?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 15836.356804
Price History:
2025-06-23 07:00: 0.7400
2025-06-23 08:00: 0.7400
2025-06-23 09:00: 0.7400
2025-06-23 10:00: 0.7400
2025-06-23 11:00: 0.7050
2025-06-23 12:00: 0.7050
2025-06-23 13:00: 0.7050
2025-06-23 14:00: 0.7050
2025-06-23 15:00: 0.6800
2025-06-23 16:00: 0.6750
2025-06-23 17:00: 0.6750
2025-06-23 18:00: 0.6450
2025-06-23 19:00: 0.6750
2025-06-23 20:00: 0.6600
2025-06-23 21:00: 0.6650
2025-06-23 22:00: 0.6700
2025-06-23 23:00: 0.6850
2025-06-24 00:00: 0.6700
2025-06-24 01:00: 0.6650
2025-06-24 02:00: 0.6650
2025-06-24 03:00: 0.6800
2025-06-24 04:00: 0.6700
2025-06-24 05:00: 0.6700
2025-06-24 06:00: 0.6700
2025-06-24 07:00: 0.6750
2025-06-24 08:00: 0.6650
2025-06-24 09:00: 0.6850
2025-06-24 10:00: 0.6600
2025-06-24 11:00: 0.6550
2025-06-24 12:00: 0.6550
2025-06-24 13:00: 0.6650
2025-06-24 14:00: 0.6650
2025-06-24 15:00: 0.6650
2025-06-24 16:00: 0.6500
2025-06-24 17:00: 0.6450
2025-06-24 18:00: 0.6600
2025-06-24 19:00: 0.6450
2025-06-24 20:00: 0.5600
2025-06-24 21:00: 0.5600
2025-06-24 22:00: 0.6700
2025-06-24 23:00: 0.7450
2025-06-25 00:00: 0.7400
2025-06-25 01:00: 0.7400
2025-06-25 02:00: 0.7400
2025-06-25 03:00: 0.7400
2025-06-25 04:00: 0.7400
2025-06-25 05:00: 0.7400
2025-06-25 06:00: 0.7400
2025-06-25 07:00: 0.9450
2025-06-25 08:00: 0.9400
Trade Summary: Total trades: 43, Buy volume: 2693.98, Sell volume: 366.96, Average price: 0.6138, Price range: 0.0100 - 0.9700

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 554575
Question: Will Brad Lander’s vote share be between 12% and 15% in the first round of the NYC Democratic mayoral primary?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 15836.356804
Price History:
2025-06-25 19:00: 0.0595
2025-06-25 20:00: 0.0675
2025-06-25 21:00: 0.0580
2025-06-25 22:00: 0.0560
2025-06-25 23:00: 0.0640
2025-06-26 00:00: 0.0560
2025-06-26 01:00: 0.0560
2025-06-26 02:00: 0.0560
2025-06-26 03:00: 0.0570
2025-06-26 04:00: 0.0550
2025-06-26 05:00: 0.0545
2025-06-26 06:00: 0.0620
2025-06-26 07:00: 0.0595
2025-06-26 08:00: 0.0565
2025-06-26 09:00: 0.0545
2025-06-26 10:00: 0.0545
2025-06-26 11:00: 0.0580
2025-06-26 12:00: 0.0555
2025-06-26 13:00: 0.0670
2025-06-26 14:00: 0.0565
2025-06-26 15:00: 0.0625
2025-06-26 16:00: 0.0695
2025-06-26 17:00: 0.0705
2025-06-26 18:00: 0.0720
2025-06-26 19:00: 0.0725
2025-06-26 20:00: 0.0730
2025-06-26 21:00: 0.0710
2025-06-26 22:00: 0.0725
2025-06-26 23:00: 0.0670
2025-06-27 00:00: 0.0620
2025-06-27 01:00: 0.0665
2025-06-27 02:00: 0.0665
2025-06-27 03:00: 0.0660
2025-06-27 04:00: 0.0685
2025-06-27 05:00: 0.0560
2025-06-27 06:00: 0.0585
2025-06-27 07:00: 0.0545
2025-06-27 08:00: 0.0605
2025-06-27 09:00: 0.0575
2025-06-27 10:00: 0.0575
2025-06-27 11:00: 0.0545
2025-06-27 12:00: 0.0640
2025-06-27 13:00: 0.0635
2025-06-27 14:00: 0.0640
2025-06-27 15:00: 0.0620
2025-06-27 16:00: 0.0645
2025-06-27 17:00: 0.0660
2025-06-27 18:00: 0.0660
2025-06-27 19:00: 0.0660
2025-06-27 20:00: 0.0660
Trade Summary: Total trades: 12, Buy volume: 522.03, Sell volume: 11.00, Average price: 0.8007, Price range: 0.0680 - 0.9500

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 554575
Question: Will Brad Lander’s vote share be between 12% and 15% in the first round of the NYC Democratic mayoral primary?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 15836.356804
Price History:
2025-06-28 06:00: 0.9325
2025-06-28 07:00: 0.9330
2025-06-28 08:00: 0.9330
2025-06-28 09:00: 0.9330
2025-06-28 10:00: 0.9335
2025-06-28 11:00: 0.9370
2025-06-28 12:00: 0.9375
2025-06-28 13:00: 0.9375
2025-06-28 14:00: 0.9380
2025-06-28 15:00: 0.9380
2025-06-28 16:00: 0.9385
2025-06-28 17:00: 0.9385
2025-06-28 18:00: 0.9370
2025-06-28 19:00: 0.9370
2025-06-28 20:00: 0.9370
2025-06-28 21:00: 0.9370
2025-06-28 22:00: 0.9370
2025-06-28 23:00: 0.9370
2025-06-29 00:00: 0.9370
2025-06-29 01:00: 0.9365
2025-06-29 02:00: 0.9375
2025-06-29 03:00: 0.9365
2025-06-29 04:00: 0.9370
2025-06-29 05:00: 0.9370
2025-06-29 06:00: 0.9370
2025-06-29 07:00: 0.9370
2025-06-29 08:00: 0.9370
2025-06-29 09:00: 0.9380
2025-06-29 10:00: 0.9375
2025-06-29 11:00: 0.9370
2025-06-29 12:00: 0.9375
2025-06-29 13:00: 0.9370
2025-06-29 14:00: 0.9375
2025-06-29 15:00: 0.9370
2025-06-29 16:00: 0.9375
2025-06-29 17:00: 0.9375
2025-06-29 18:00: 0.9375
2025-06-29 19:00: 0.9375
2025-06-29 20:00: 0.9375
2025-06-29 21:00: 0.9375
2025-06-29 22:00: 0.9375
2025-06-29 23:00: 0.9375
2025-06-30 00:00: 0.9370
2025-06-30 01:00: 0.9375
2025-06-30 02:00: 0.9375
2025-06-30 03:00: 0.9370
2025-06-30 04:00: 0.9370
2025-06-30 05:00: 0.9370
2025-06-30 06:00: 0.7250
2025-06-30 07:00: 0.7250
Trade Summary: Total trades: 6, Buy volume: 141.55, Sell volume: 0.00, Average price: 0.9311, Price range: 0.8360 - 0.9510

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 554575
Question: Will Brad Lander’s vote share be between 12% and 15% in the first round of the NYC Democratic mayoral primary?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 15836.356804
Price History:
2025-06-30 18:00: 0.1640
2025-06-30 19:00: 0.1830
2025-06-30 20:00: 0.2155
2025-06-30 21:00: 0.2135
2025-06-30 22:00: 0.1850
2025-06-30 23:00: 0.1835
2025-07-01 00:00: 0.3585
2025-07-01 01:00: 0.2750
2025-07-01 02:00: 0.2750
2025-07-01 03:00: 0.2750
2025-07-01 04:00: 0.3055
2025-07-01 05:00: 0.3005
2025-07-01 06:00: 0.2750
2025-07-01 07:00: 0.1805
2025-07-01 08:00: 0.2760
2025-07-01 09:00: 0.2775
2025-07-01 10:00: 0.2750
2025-07-01 11:00: 0.2755
2025-07-01 12:00: 0.2760
2025-07-01 13:00: 0.2760
2025-07-01 14:00: 0.2810
2025-07-01 15:00: 0.2585
2025-07-01 16:00: 0.1835
2025-07-01 17:00: 0.2385
2025-07-01 18:00: 0.1720
2025-07-01 19:00: 0.2880
2025-07-01 20:00: 0.2880
2025-07-01 21:00: 0.2880
2025-07-01 22:00: 0.2945
2025-07-01 23:00: 0.5390
2025-07-02 00:00: 0.5415
2025-07-02 01:00: 0.5400
2025-07-02 02:00: 0.5430
2025-07-02 03:00: 0.4340
2025-07-02 04:00: 0.4360
2025-07-02 05:00: 0.4285
2025-07-02 06:00: 0.4350
2025-07-02 07:00: 0.4435
2025-07-02 08:00: 0.4400
2025-07-02 09:00: 0.4345
2025-07-02 10:00: 0.4465
2025-07-02 11:00: 0.4450
2025-07-02 12:00: 0.4235
2025-07-02 13:00: 0.3720
2025-07-02 14:00: 0.3520
2025-07-02 15:00: 0.3945
2025-07-02 16:00: 0.4960
2025-07-02 17:00: 0.4905
2025-07-02 18:00: 0.4195
2025-07-02 19:00: 0.4195
Trade Summary: Total trades: 19, Buy volume: 1301.76, Sell volume: 153.98, Average price: 0.4388, Price range: 0.0520 - 0.8500

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 554575
Question: Will Brad Lander’s vote share be between 12% and 15% in the first round of the NYC Democratic mayoral primary?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 15836.356804
Price History:
2025-07-03 05:00: 0.5505
2025-07-03 06:00: 0.5610
2025-07-03 07:00: 0.5430
2025-07-03 08:00: 0.5030
2025-07-03 09:00: 0.5505
2025-07-03 10:00: 0.5525
2025-07-03 11:00: 0.5550
2025-07-03 12:00: 0.6050
2025-07-03 13:00: 0.5070
2025-07-03 14:00: 0.5530
2025-07-03 15:00: 0.5365
2025-07-03 16:00: 0.5195
2025-07-03 17:00: 0.5505
2025-07-03 18:00: 0.5555
2025-07-03 19:00: 0.5300
2025-07-03 20:00: 0.5570
2025-07-03 21:00: 0.5655
2025-07-03 22:00: 0.5355
2025-07-03 23:00: 0.5325
2025-07-04 00:00: 0.5555
2025-07-04 01:00: 0.5505
2025-07-04 02:00: 0.5630
2025-07-04 03:00: 0.5505
2025-07-04 04:00: 0.5630
2025-07-04 05:00: 0.5635
2025-07-04 06:00: 0.5080
2025-07-04 07:00: 0.5010
2025-07-04 08:00: 0.5015
2025-07-04 09:00: 0.5045
2025-07-04 10:00: 0.5045
2025-07-04 11:00: 0.5060
2025-07-04 12:00: 0.5020
2025-07-04 13:00: 0.5995
2025-07-04 14:00: 0.6270
2025-07-04 15:00: 0.6210
2025-07-04 16:00: 0.6125
2025-07-04 17:00: 0.5890
2025-07-04 18:00: 0.6095
2025-07-04 19:00: 0.5830
2025-07-04 20:00: 0.6095
2025-07-04 21:00: 0.6095
2025-07-04 22:00: 0.6095
2025-07-04 23:00: 0.5895
2025-07-05 00:00: 0.6095
2025-07-05 01:00: 0.5095
2025-07-05 02:00: 0.6095
2025-07-05 03:00: 0.6095
2025-07-05 04:00: 0.6100
2025-07-05 05:00: 0.6115
2025-07-05 06:00: 0.6100
Trade Summary: Total trades: 65, Buy volume: 3566.00, Sell volume: 21.77, Average price: 0.3353, Price range: 0.2040 - 0.8000

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 554575
Question: Will Brad Lander’s vote share be between 12% and 15% in the first round of the NYC Democratic mayoral primary?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 15836.356804
Price History:
2025-07-05 17:00: 0.7150
2025-07-05 18:00: 0.3370
2025-07-05 19:00: 0.6560
2025-07-05 20:00: 0.3170
2025-07-05 21:00: 0.3125
2025-07-05 22:00: 0.3195
2025-07-05 23:00: 0.3195
2025-07-06 00:00: 0.3140
2025-07-06 01:00: 0.3125
2025-07-06 02:00: 0.3075
2025-07-06 03:00: 0.3185
2025-07-06 04:00: 0.3125
2025-07-06 05:00: 0.3180
2025-07-06 06:00: 0.3120
2025-07-06 07:00: 0.2950
2025-07-06 08:00: 0.3140
2025-07-06 09:00: 0.2990
2025-07-06 10:00: 0.3040
2025-07-06 11:00: 0.3035
2025-07-06 12:00: 0.2960
2025-07-06 13:00: 0.2990
2025-07-06 14:00: 0.3005
2025-07-06 15:00: 0.3060
2025-07-06 16:00: 0.2995
2025-07-06 17:00: 0.2980
2025-07-06 18:00: 0.3100
2025-07-06 19:00: 0.3010
2025-07-06 20:00: 0.3100
2025-07-06 21:00: 0.2955
2025-07-06 22:00: 0.3095
2025-07-06 23:00: 0.3100
2025-07-07 00:00: 0.3100
2025-07-07 01:00: 0.3100
2025-07-07 02:00: 0.3100
2025-07-07 03:00: 0.3100
2025-07-07 04:00: 0.3100
2025-07-07 05:00: 0.3100
2025-07-07 06:00: 0.3100
2025-07-07 07:00: 0.4045
2025-07-07 08:00: 0.3100
2025-07-07 09:00: 0.3100
2025-07-07 10:00: 0.3100
2025-07-07 11:00: 0.3100
2025-07-07 12:00: 0.2495
2025-07-07 13:00: 0.3105
2025-07-07 14:00: 0.3100
2025-07-07 15:00: 0.3100
2025-07-07 16:00: 0.3100
2025-07-07 17:00: 0.3100
2025-07-07 18:00: 0.3100
Trade Summary: Total trades: 12, Buy volume: 436.45, Sell volume: 0.00, Average price: 0.3477, Price range: 0.2940 - 0.6920

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 554575
Question: Will Brad Lander’s vote share be between 12% and 15% in the first round of the NYC Democratic mayoral primary?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 15836.356804
Price History:
2025-07-08 04:00: 0.6900
2025-07-08 05:00: 0.6900
2025-07-08 06:00: 0.6900
2025-07-08 07:00: 0.6900
2025-07-08 08:00: 0.6900
2025-07-08 09:00: 0.6900
2025-07-08 10:00: 0.6900
2025-07-08 11:00: 0.7000
2025-07-08 12:00: 0.7215
2025-07-08 13:00: 0.7430
2025-07-08 14:00: 0.6910
2025-07-08 15:00: 0.5985
2025-07-08 16:00: 0.9600
2025-07-08 17:00: 0.6940
2025-07-08 18:00: 0.6960
2025-07-08 19:00: 0.6965
2025-07-08 20:00: 0.6930
2025-07-08 21:00: 0.6910
2025-07-08 22:00: 0.9910
2025-07-08 23:00: 0.9970
2025-07-09 00:00: 0.9970
2025-07-09 01:00: 0.9970
2025-07-09 02:00: 0.9970
2025-07-09 03:00: 0.9970
2025-07-09 04:00: 0.9970
2025-07-09 05:00: 0.9970
2025-07-09 06:00: 0.9970
2025-07-09 07:00: 0.9970
2025-07-09 08:00: 0.9965
2025-07-09 09:00: 0.9965
2025-07-09 10:00: 0.9965
2025-07-09 11:00: 0.9965
2025-07-09 12:00: 0.9965
2025-07-09 13:00: 0.9965
2025-07-09 14:00: 0.9965
2025-07-09 15:00: 0.9965
2025-07-09 16:00: 0.9965
2025-07-09 17:00: 0.9965
2025-07-09 18:00: 0.9910
2025-07-09 19:00: 0.9950
2025-07-09 20:00: 0.9930
2025-07-09 21:00: 0.9965
2025-07-09 22:00: 0.9965
2025-07-09 23:00: 0.9965
2025-07-10 00:00: 0.9965
2025-07-10 01:00: 0.9965
2025-07-10 02:00: 0.9965
2025-07-10 03:00: 0.9965
2025-07-10 04:00: 0.9965
2025-07-10 05:00: 0.9965
Trade Summary: Total trades: 9, Buy volume: 256.61, Sell volume: 25.00, Average price: 0.5315, Price range: 0.0020 - 0.9950

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 554575
Question: Will Brad Lander’s vote share be between 12% and 15% in the first round of the NYC Democratic mayoral primary?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 15836.356804
Price History:
2025-07-10 16:00: 0.0035
2025-07-10 17:00: 0.0035
2025-07-10 18:00: 0.0035
2025-07-10 19:00: 0.0035
2025-07-10 20:00: 0.0035
2025-07-10 21:00: 0.0035
2025-07-10 22:00: 0.0035
2025-07-10 23:00: 0.0035
2025-07-11 00:00: 0.0035
2025-07-11 01:00: 0.0035
2025-07-11 02:00: 0.0035
2025-07-11 03:00: 0.0035
2025-07-11 04:00: 0.0035
2025-07-11 05:00: 0.0035
2025-07-11 06:00: 0.0035
2025-07-11 07:00: 0.0005
2025-07-11 08:00: 0.0005
2025-07-11 09:00: 0.0005
2025-07-11 10:00: 0.0005
2025-07-11 11:00: 0.0005
2025-07-11 12:00: 0.0005
2025-07-11 13:00: 0.0005
2025-07-11 14:00: 0.0005
2025-07-11 15:00: 0.0005
2025-07-11 16:00: 0.0005
2025-07-11 17:00: 0.0005
2025-07-11 18:00: 0.0005
2025-07-11 19:00: 0.0005
2025-07-11 20:00: 0.0005
2025-07-11 21:00: 0.0005
2025-07-11 22:00: 0.0005
2025-07-11 23:00: 0.0005
2025-07-12 00:00: 0.0005
2025-07-12 01:00: 0.0005
2025-07-12 02:00: 0.0005
2025-07-12 03:00: 0.0005
2025-07-12 04:00: 0.0005
2025-07-12 05:00: 0.0005
2025-07-12 06:00: 0.0005
2025-07-12 07:00: 0.0005
2025-07-12 08:00: 0.0005
2025-07-12 09:00: 0.0025
2025-07-12 10:00: 0.0025
2025-07-12 11:00: 0.0025
2025-07-12 12:00: 0.0025
2025-07-12 13:00: 0.0025
2025-07-12 14:00: 0.0025
2025-07-12 15:00: 0.0025
2025-07-12 16:00: 0.0025
2025-07-12 17:00: 0.0025
Trade Summary: Total trades: 7, Buy volume: 623.61, Sell volume: 2286.99, Average price: 0.2857, Price range: 0.0010 - 0.9990

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 554575
Question: Will Brad Lander’s vote share be between 12% and 15% in the first round of the NYC Democratic mayoral primary?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 15836.356804
Price History:
2025-07-13 03:00: 0.9975
2025-07-13 04:00: 0.9975
2025-07-13 05:00: 0.9975
2025-07-13 06:00: 0.9975
2025-07-13 07:00: 0.9975
2025-07-13 08:00: 0.9950
2025-07-13 09:00: 0.9945
2025-07-13 10:00: 0.9945
2025-07-13 11:00: 0.9940
2025-07-13 12:00: 0.9955
2025-07-13 13:00: 0.9925
2025-07-13 14:00: 0.9925
2025-07-13 15:00: 0.9925
2025-07-13 16:00: 0.9910
2025-07-13 17:00: 0.9915
2025-07-13 18:00: 0.9910
2025-07-13 19:00: 0.9910
2025-07-13 20:00: 0.9965
2025-07-13 21:00: 0.9965
2025-07-13 22:00: 0.9965
2025-07-13 23:00: 0.9965
2025-07-14 00:00: 0.9965
2025-07-14 01:00: 0.9965
2025-07-14 02:00: 0.9965
2025-07-14 03:00: 0.9965
2025-07-14 04:00: 0.9965
2025-07-14 05:00: 0.9965
2025-07-14 06:00: 0.9965
2025-07-14 07:00: 0.9965
2025-07-14 08:00: 0.9965
2025-07-14 09:00: 0.9965
2025-07-14 10:00: 0.9965
2025-07-14 11:00: 0.9965
2025-07-14 12:00: 0.9965
2025-07-14 13:00: 0.9965
2025-07-14 14:00: 0.9965
2025-07-14 15:00: 0.9965
2025-07-14 16:00: 0.9965
2025-07-14 17:00: 0.9965
2025-07-14 18:00: 0.9965
2025-07-14 19:00: 0.9970
2025-07-14 20:00: 0.9965
2025-07-14 21:00: 0.9965
2025-07-14 22:00: 0.9965
2025-07-14 23:00: 0.9965
2025-07-15 00:00: 0.9965
2025-07-15 01:00: 0.9965
2025-07-15 02:00: 0.9945
2025-07-15 03:00: 0.9940
2025-07-15 04:00: 0.9940
Trade Summary: Total trades: 30, Buy volume: 1412.78, Sell volume: 648.84, Average price: 0.7629, Price range: 0.0020 - 0.9990

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 554575
Question: Will Brad Lander’s vote share be between 12% and 15% in the first round of the NYC Democratic mayoral primary?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 15836.356804
Price History:
2025-07-15 15:00: 0.0020
2025-07-15 16:00: 0.0020
2025-07-15 17:00: 0.0020
2025-07-15 18:00: 0.0020
2025-07-15 19:00: 0.0020
2025-07-15 20:00: 0.0020
2025-07-15 21:00: 0.0020
2025-07-15 22:00: 0.0020
2025-07-15 23:00: 0.0020
2025-07-16 00:00: 0.0020
2025-07-16 01:00: 0.0020
2025-07-16 02:00: 0.0020
2025-07-16 03:00: 0.0020
2025-07-16 04:00: 0.0020
2025-07-16 05:00: 0.0020
2025-07-16 06:00: 0.0020
2025-07-16 07:00: 0.0020
2025-07-16 08:00: 0.0020
2025-07-16 09:00: 0.0020
2025-07-16 10:00: 0.0015
2025-07-16 11:00: 0.0015
2025-07-16 12:00: 0.0015
2025-07-16 13:00: 0.0015
2025-07-16 14:00: 0.0015
2025-07-16 15:00: 0.0015
2025-07-16 16:00: 0.0015
2025-07-16 17:00: 0.0015
2025-07-16 18:00: 0.0015
2025-07-16 19:00: 0.0015
2025-07-16 20:00: 0.0015
2025-07-16 21:00: 0.0015
2025-07-16 22:00: 0.0015
2025-07-16 23:00: 0.0015
2025-07-17 00:00: 0.0015
2025-07-17 01:00: 0.0015
2025-07-17 02:00: 0.0015
2025-07-17 03:00: 0.0010
2025-07-17 04:00: 0.0010
2025-07-17 05:00: 0.0010
2025-07-17 06:00: 0.0010
2025-07-17 07:00: 0.0010
2025-07-17 08:00: 0.0010
2025-07-17 09:00: 0.0010
2025-07-17 10:00: 0.0010
2025-07-17 11:00: 0.0010
2025-07-17 12:00: 0.0010
2025-07-17 13:00: 0.0010
2025-07-17 14:00: 0.0010
2025-07-17 15:00: 0.0010
2025-07-17 16:00: 0.0010
Trade Summary: Total trades: 2, Buy volume: 0.00, Sell volume: 367.05, Average price: 0.4995, Price range: 0.0010 - 0.9980

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 554575
Question: Will Brad Lander’s vote share be between 12% and 15% in the first round of the NYC Democratic mayoral primary?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 15836.356804
Price History:
2025-07-18 02:00: 0.9990
2025-07-18 03:00: 0.9990
2025-07-18 04:00: 0.9990
2025-07-18 05:00: 0.9990
2025-07-18 06:00: 0.9995
2025-07-18 07:00: 0.9995
2025-07-18 08:00: 0.9995
2025-07-18 09:00: 0.9995
2025-07-18 10:00: 0.9995
2025-07-18 11:00: 0.9995
2025-07-18 12:00: 0.9995
2025-07-18 13:00: 0.9995
2025-07-18 14:00: 0.9995
2025-07-18 15:00: 0.9995
2025-07-18 16:00: 0.9995
2025-07-18 17:00: 0.9995
2025-07-18 18:00: 0.9995
2025-07-18 19:00: 0.9995
2025-07-18 20:00: 0.9995
2025-07-18 21:00: 0.9995
2025-07-18 22:00: 0.9995
2025-07-18 23:00: 0.9995
2025-07-19 00:00: 0.9995
2025-07-19 01:00: 0.9995
2025-07-19 02:00: 0.9995
2025-07-19 03:00: 0.9995
2025-07-19 04:00: 0.9995
2025-07-19 05:00: 0.9995
2025-07-19 06:00: 0.9995
2025-07-19 07:00: 0.9995
2025-07-19 08:00: 0.9995
2025-07-19 09:00: 0.9995
2025-07-19 10:00: 0.9995
2025-07-19 11:00: 0.9995
2025-07-19 12:00: 0.9995
2025-07-19 13:00: 0.9995
2025-07-19 14:00: 0.9995
2025-07-19 15:00: 0.9995
2025-07-19 16:00: 0.9995
2025-07-19 17:00: 0.9995
2025-07-19 18:00: 0.9995
2025-07-19 19:00: 0.9995
2025-07-19 20:00: 0.9995
2025-07-19 21:00: 0.9995
2025-07-19 22:00: 0.9995
2025-07-19 23:00: 0.9995
2025-07-20 00:00: 0.9995
2025-07-20 01:00: 0.9995
2025-07-20 02:00: 0.9995
2025-07-20 03:00: 0.9995
Trade Summary: Total trades: 222, Buy volume: 11954.77, Sell volume: 3881.59, Average price: 0.5015, Price range: 0.0010 - 0.9990

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 554575
Question: Will Brad Lander’s vote share be between 12% and 15% in the first round of the NYC Democratic mayoral primary?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 15836.356804
Price History:
2025-07-20 14:00: 0.0005
2025-07-20 15:00: 0.0005
2025-07-20 16:00: 0.0005
2025-07-20 17:00: 0.0005
2025-07-20 18:00: 0.0005
2025-07-20 19:00: 0.0005
2025-07-20 20:00: 0.0005
2025-07-20 21:00: 0.0005
2025-07-20 22:00: 0.0005
2025-07-20 23:00: 0.0005
2025-07-21 00:00: 0.0005
2025-07-21 01:00: 0.0005
2025-07-21 02:00: 0.0005
2025-07-21 03:00: 0.0005
2025-07-21 04:00: 0.0005
2025-07-21 05:00: 0.0005
2025-07-21 06:00: 0.0005
2025-07-21 07:00: 0.0005
2025-07-21 08:00: 0.0005
2025-07-21 09:00: 0.0005
2025-07-21 10:00: 0.0005
2025-07-21 11:00: 0.0005
2025-07-21 12:00: 0.0005
2025-07-21 13:00: 0.0005
2025-07-21 14:00: 0.0005
2025-07-21 15:00: 0.0005
2025-07-21 16:00: 0.0005
2025-07-21 17:00: 0.0005
2025-07-21 18:00: 0.0005
2025-07-21 19:00: 0.0005
2025-07-21 20:00: 0.0005
2025-07-21 21:00: 0.0005
2025-07-21 22:00: 0.0005
2025-07-21 23:00: 0.0005
2025-07-22 00:00: 0.0005
2025-07-22 01:00: 0.0005
2025-07-22 02:00: 0.0005
2025-07-22 03:00: 0.0005
2025-07-22 04:00: 0.0005
2025-07-22 05:00: 0.0005
2025-07-22 06:00: 0.0005
2025-07-22 07:00: 0.0005
2025-07-22 08:00: 0.0005
2025-07-22 09:00: 0.0005
2025-07-22 10:00: 0.0005
2025-07-22 11:00: 0.0005
2025-07-22 12:00: 0.0005
2025-07-22 13:00: 0.0005
2025-07-22 14:00: 0.0005
2025-07-22 15:00: 0.0005
Trade Summary: Total trades: 222, Buy volume: 11954.77, Sell volume: 3881.59, Average price: 0.5015, Price range: 0.0010 - 0.9990

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 554575
Question: Will Brad Lander’s vote share be between 12% and 15% in the first round of the NYC Democratic mayoral primary?
Volume: 15836.356804
Price History:
2025-06-20 20:00: 0.2450
2025-06-20 21:00: 0.7550
2025-06-20 23:00: 0.1950
2025-06-21 00:00: 0.8050
2025-06-21 02:00: 0.1950
2025-06-21 03:00: 0.8050
2025-06-21 05:00: 0.2000
2025-06-21 06:00: 0.8000
2025-06-21 08:00: 0.1950
2025-06-21 09:00: 0.8100
2025-06-21 11:00: 0.1900
2025-06-21 12:00: 0.8100
2025-06-21 14:00: 0.1900
2025-06-21 15:00: 0.8100
2025-06-21 17:00: 0.1900
2025-06-21 18:00: 0.8100
2025-06-21 20:00: 0.1900
2025-06-21 21:00: 0.8100
2025-06-21 23:00: 0.1900
2025-06-22 00:00: 0.8100
2025-06-22 02:00: 0.1900
2025-06-22 03:00: 0.8100
2025-06-22 05:00: 0.1900
2025-06-22 06:00: 0.8100
2025-06-22 08:00: 0.1900
2025-06-22 09:00: 0.8100
2025-06-22 11:00: 0.1900
2025-06-22 12:00: 0.8100
2025-06-22 14:00: 0.1900
2025-06-22 15:00: 0.8100
Trade Summary: Total trades: 1, Buy volume: 100.00, Sell volume: 0.00, Average price: 0.2000, Price range: 0.2000 - 0.2000
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 554575
Question: Will Brad Lander’s vote share be between 12% and 15% in the first round of the NYC Democratic mayoral primary?
Volume: 15836.356804
Price History:
2025-06-23 07:00: 0.7400
2025-06-23 09:00: 0.2600
2025-06-23 10:00: 0.7400
2025-06-23 12:00: 0.2950
2025-06-23 13:00: 0.7050
2025-06-23 15:00: 0.3200
2025-06-23 16:00: 0.6750
2025-06-23 18:00: 0.3550
2025-06-23 19:00: 0.6750
2025-06-23 21:00: 0.3350
2025-06-23 22:00: 0.6700
2025-06-24 00:00: 0.3300
2025-06-24 01:00: 0.6650
2025-06-24 03:00: 0.3200
2025-06-24 04:00: 0.6700
2025-06-24 06:00: 0.3300
2025-06-24 07:00: 0.6750
2025-06-24 09:00: 0.3150
2025-06-24 10:00: 0.6600
2025-06-24 12:00: 0.3450
2025-06-24 13:00: 0.6650
2025-06-24 15:00: 0.3350
2025-06-24 16:00: 0.6500
2025-06-24 18:00: 0.3400
2025-06-24 19:00: 0.6450
2025-06-24 21:00: 0.4400
2025-06-24 22:00: 0.6700
2025-06-25 00:00: 0.2600
2025-06-25 01:00: 0.7400
2025-06-25 03:00: 0.2600
Trade Summary: Total trades: 43, Buy volume: 2693.98, Sell volume: 366.96, Average price: 0.6138, Price range: 0.0100 - 0.9700
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 554575
Question: Will Brad Lander’s vote share be between 12% and 15% in the first round of the NYC Democratic mayoral primary?
Volume: 15836.356804
Price History:
2025-06-25 19:00: 0.0595
2025-06-25 20:00: 0.9325
2025-06-25 22:00: 0.0560
2025-06-25 23:00: 0.9360
2025-06-26 01:00: 0.0560
2025-06-26 02:00: 0.9440
2025-06-26 04:00: 0.0550
2025-06-26 05:00: 0.9455
2025-06-26 07:00: 0.0595
2025-06-26 08:00: 0.9435
2025-06-26 10:00: 0.0545
2025-06-26 11:00: 0.9420
2025-06-26 13:00: 0.0670
2025-06-26 14:00: 0.9435
2025-06-26 16:00: 0.0695
2025-06-26 17:00: 0.9295
2025-06-26 19:00: 0.0725
2025-06-26 20:00: 0.9270
2025-06-26 22:00: 0.0725
2025-06-26 23:00: 0.9330
2025-06-27 01:00: 0.0665
2025-06-27 02:00: 0.9335
2025-06-27 04:00: 0.0685
2025-06-27 05:00: 0.9440
2025-06-27 07:00: 0.0545
2025-06-27 08:00: 0.9395
2025-06-27 10:00: 0.0575
2025-06-27 11:00: 0.9455
2025-06-27 13:00: 0.0635
2025-06-27 14:00: 0.9360
Trade Summary: Total trades: 12, Buy volume: 522.03, Sell volume: 11.00, Average price: 0.8007, Price range: 0.0680 - 0.9500
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 554575
Question: Will Brad Lander’s vote share be between 12% and 15% in the first round of the NYC Democratic mayoral primary?
Volume: 15836.356804
Price History:
2025-06-28 06:00: 0.9325
2025-06-28 08:00: 0.0670
2025-06-28 09:00: 0.9330
2025-06-28 11:00: 0.0630
2025-06-28 12:00: 0.9375
2025-06-28 14:00: 0.0620
2025-06-28 15:00: 0.9380
2025-06-28 17:00: 0.0615
2025-06-28 18:00: 0.9370
2025-06-28 20:00: 0.0630
2025-06-28 21:00: 0.9370
2025-06-28 23:00: 0.0630
2025-06-29 00:00: 0.9370
2025-06-29 02:00: 0.0625
2025-06-29 03:00: 0.9365
2025-06-29 05:00: 0.0630
2025-06-29 06:00: 0.9370
2025-06-29 08:00: 0.0630
2025-06-29 09:00: 0.9380
2025-06-29 11:00: 0.0630
2025-06-29 12:00: 0.9375
2025-06-29 14:00: 0.0625
2025-06-29 15:00: 0.9370
2025-06-29 17:00: 0.0625
2025-06-29 18:00: 0.9375
2025-06-29 20:00: 0.0625
2025-06-29 21:00: 0.9375
2025-06-29 23:00: 0.0625
2025-06-30 00:00: 0.9370
2025-06-30 02:00: 0.0625
Trade Summary: Total trades: 6, Buy volume: 141.55, Sell volume: 0.00, Average price: 0.9311, Price range: 0.8360 - 0.9510
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 554575
Question: Will Brad Lander’s vote share be between 12% and 15% in the first round of the NYC Democratic mayoral primary?
Volume: 15836.356804
Price History:
2025-06-30 18:00: 0.1640
2025-06-30 19:00: 0.8170
2025-06-30 21:00: 0.2135
2025-06-30 22:00: 0.8150
2025-07-01 00:00: 0.3585
2025-07-01 01:00: 0.7250
2025-07-01 03:00: 0.2750
2025-07-01 04:00: 0.6945
2025-07-01 06:00: 0.2750
2025-07-01 07:00: 0.8195
2025-07-01 09:00: 0.2775
2025-07-01 10:00: 0.7250
2025-07-01 12:00: 0.2760
2025-07-01 13:00: 0.7240
2025-07-01 15:00: 0.2585
2025-07-01 16:00: 0.8165
2025-07-01 18:00: 0.1720
2025-07-01 19:00: 0.7120
2025-07-01 21:00: 0.2880
2025-07-01 22:00: 0.7055
2025-07-02 00:00: 0.5415
2025-07-02 01:00: 0.4600
2025-07-02 03:00: 0.4340
2025-07-02 04:00: 0.5640
2025-07-02 06:00: 0.4350
2025-07-02 07:00: 0.5565
2025-07-02 09:00: 0.4345
2025-07-02 10:00: 0.5535
2025-07-02 12:00: 0.4235
2025-07-02 13:00: 0.6280
Trade Summary: Total trades: 19, Buy volume: 1301.76, Sell volume: 153.98, Average price: 0.4388, Price range: 0.0520 - 0.8500
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike, wash_trading

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 554575
Question: Will Brad Lander’s vote share be between 12% and 15% in the first round of the NYC Democratic mayoral primary?
Volume: 15836.356804
Price History:
2025-07-03 05:00: 0.5505
2025-07-03 07:00: 0.4570
2025-07-03 08:00: 0.5030
2025-07-03 10:00: 0.4475
2025-07-03 11:00: 0.5550
2025-07-03 13:00: 0.4930
2025-07-03 14:00: 0.5530
2025-07-03 16:00: 0.4805
2025-07-03 17:00: 0.5505
2025-07-03 19:00: 0.4700
2025-07-03 20:00: 0.5570
2025-07-03 22:00: 0.4645
2025-07-03 23:00: 0.5325
2025-07-04 01:00: 0.4495
2025-07-04 02:00: 0.5630
2025-07-04 04:00: 0.4370
2025-07-04 05:00: 0.5635
2025-07-04 07:00: 0.4990
2025-07-04 08:00: 0.5015
2025-07-04 10:00: 0.4955
2025-07-04 11:00: 0.5060
2025-07-04 13:00: 0.4005
2025-07-04 14:00: 0.6270
2025-07-04 16:00: 0.3875
2025-07-04 17:00: 0.5890
2025-07-04 19:00: 0.4170
2025-07-04 20:00: 0.6095
2025-07-04 22:00: 0.3905
2025-07-04 23:00: 0.5895
2025-07-05 01:00: 0.4905
Trade Summary: Total trades: 65, Buy volume: 3566.00, Sell volume: 21.77, Average price: 0.3353, Price range: 0.2040 - 0.8000
Manipulation Indicators Detected: wash_trading

Output: No


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 554575
Question: Will Brad Lander’s vote share be between 12% and 15% in the first round of the NYC Democratic mayoral primary?
Volume: 15836.356804
Price History:
2025-07-05 17:00: 0.7150
2025-07-05 18:00: 0.6630
2025-07-05 20:00: 0.3170
2025-07-05 21:00: 0.6875
2025-07-05 23:00: 0.3195
2025-07-06 00:00: 0.6860
2025-07-06 02:00: 0.3075
2025-07-06 03:00: 0.6815
2025-07-06 05:00: 0.3180
2025-07-06 06:00: 0.6880
2025-07-06 08:00: 0.3140
2025-07-06 09:00: 0.7010
2025-07-06 11:00: 0.3035
2025-07-06 12:00: 0.7040
2025-07-06 14:00: 0.3005
2025-07-06 15:00: 0.6940
2025-07-06 17:00: 0.2980
2025-07-06 18:00: 0.6900
2025-07-06 20:00: 0.3100
2025-07-06 21:00: 0.7045
2025-07-06 23:00: 0.3100
2025-07-07 00:00: 0.6900
2025-07-07 02:00: 0.3100
2025-07-07 03:00: 0.6900
2025-07-07 05:00: 0.3100
2025-07-07 06:00: 0.6900
2025-07-07 08:00: 0.3100
2025-07-07 09:00: 0.6900
2025-07-07 11:00: 0.3100
2025-07-07 12:00: 0.7505
Trade Summary: Total trades: 12, Buy volume: 436.45, Sell volume: 0.00, Average price: 0.3477, Price range: 0.2940 - 0.6920
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 554575
Question: Will Brad Lander’s vote share be between 12% and 15% in the first round of the NYC Democratic mayoral primary?
Volume: 15836.356804
Price History:
2025-07-08 04:00: 0.6900
2025-07-08 06:00: 0.3100
2025-07-08 07:00: 0.6900
2025-07-08 09:00: 0.3100
2025-07-08 10:00: 0.6900
2025-07-08 12:00: 0.2785
2025-07-08 13:00: 0.7430
2025-07-08 15:00: 0.4015
2025-07-08 16:00: 0.9600
2025-07-08 18:00: 0.3040
2025-07-08 19:00: 0.6965
2025-07-08 21:00: 0.3090
2025-07-08 22:00: 0.9910
2025-07-09 00:00: 0.0030
2025-07-09 01:00: 0.9970
2025-07-09 03:00: 0.0030
2025-07-09 04:00: 0.9970
2025-07-09 06:00: 0.0030
2025-07-09 07:00: 0.9970
2025-07-09 09:00: 0.0035
2025-07-09 10:00: 0.9965
2025-07-09 12:00: 0.0035
2025-07-09 13:00: 0.9965
2025-07-09 15:00: 0.0035
2025-07-09 16:00: 0.9965
2025-07-09 18:00: 0.0090
2025-07-09 19:00: 0.9950
2025-07-09 21:00: 0.0035
2025-07-09 22:00: 0.9965
2025-07-10 00:00: 0.0035
Trade Summary: Total trades: 9, Buy volume: 256.61, Sell volume: 25.00, Average price: 0.5315, Price range: 0.0020 - 0.9950
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 554575
Question: Will Brad Lander’s vote share be between 12% and 15% in the first round of the NYC Democratic mayoral primary?
Volume: 15836.356804
Price History:
2025-07-10 16:00: 0.0035
2025-07-10 17:00: 0.9965
2025-07-10 19:00: 0.0035
2025-07-10 20:00: 0.9965
2025-07-10 22:00: 0.0035
2025-07-10 23:00: 0.9965
2025-07-11 01:00: 0.0035
2025-07-11 02:00: 0.9965
2025-07-11 04:00: 0.0035
2025-07-11 05:00: 0.9965
2025-07-11 07:00: 0.0005
2025-07-11 08:00: 0.9995
2025-07-11 10:00: 0.0005
2025-07-11 11:00: 0.9995
2025-07-11 13:00: 0.0005
2025-07-11 14:00: 0.9995
2025-07-11 16:00: 0.0005
2025-07-11 17:00: 0.9995
2025-07-11 19:00: 0.0005
2025-07-11 20:00: 0.9995
2025-07-11 22:00: 0.0005
2025-07-11 23:00: 0.9995
2025-07-12 01:00: 0.0005
2025-07-12 02:00: 0.9995
2025-07-12 04:00: 0.0005
2025-07-12 05:00: 0.9995
2025-07-12 07:00: 0.0005
2025-07-12 08:00: 0.9995
2025-07-12 10:00: 0.0025
2025-07-12 11:00: 0.9975
Trade Summary: Total trades: 7, Buy volume: 623.61, Sell volume: 2286.99, Average price: 0.2857, Price range: 0.0010 - 0.9990
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike, wash_trading

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 554575
Question: Will Brad Lander’s vote share be between 12% and 15% in the first round of the NYC Democratic mayoral primary?
Volume: 15836.356804
Price History:
2025-07-13 03:00: 0.9975
2025-07-13 05:00: 0.0025
2025-07-13 06:00: 0.9975
2025-07-13 08:00: 0.0050
2025-07-13 09:00: 0.9945
2025-07-13 11:00: 0.0060
2025-07-13 12:00: 0.9955
2025-07-13 14:00: 0.0075
2025-07-13 15:00: 0.9925
2025-07-13 17:00: 0.0085
2025-07-13 18:00: 0.9910
2025-07-13 20:00: 0.0035
2025-07-13 21:00: 0.9965
2025-07-13 23:00: 0.0035
2025-07-14 00:00: 0.9965
2025-07-14 02:00: 0.0035
2025-07-14 03:00: 0.9965
2025-07-14 05:00: 0.0035
2025-07-14 06:00: 0.9965
2025-07-14 08:00: 0.0035
2025-07-14 09:00: 0.9965
2025-07-14 11:00: 0.0035
2025-07-14 12:00: 0.9965
2025-07-14 14:00: 0.0035
2025-07-14 15:00: 0.9965
2025-07-14 17:00: 0.0035
2025-07-14 18:00: 0.9965
2025-07-14 20:00: 0.0035
2025-07-14 21:00: 0.9965
2025-07-14 23:00: 0.0035
Trade Summary: Total trades: 30, Buy volume: 1412.78, Sell volume: 648.84, Average price: 0.7629, Price range: 0.0020 - 0.9990
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 554575
Question: Will Brad Lander’s vote share be between 12% and 15% in the first round of the NYC Democratic mayoral primary?
Volume: 15836.356804
Price History:
2025-07-15 15:00: 0.0020
2025-07-15 16:00: 0.9980
2025-07-15 18:00: 0.0020
2025-07-15 19:00: 0.9980
2025-07-15 21:00: 0.0020
2025-07-15 22:00: 0.9980
2025-07-16 00:00: 0.0020
2025-07-16 01:00: 0.9980
2025-07-16 03:00: 0.0020
2025-07-16 04:00: 0.9980
2025-07-16 06:00: 0.0020
2025-07-16 07:00: 0.9980
2025-07-16 09:00: 0.0020
2025-07-16 10:00: 0.9985
2025-07-16 12:00: 0.0015
2025-07-16 13:00: 0.9985
2025-07-16 15:00: 0.0015
2025-07-16 16:00: 0.9985
2025-07-16 18:00: 0.0015
2025-07-16 19:00: 0.9985
2025-07-16 21:00: 0.0015
2025-07-16 22:00: 0.9985
2025-07-17 00:00: 0.0015
2025-07-17 01:00: 0.9985
2025-07-17 03:00: 0.0010
2025-07-17 04:00: 0.9990
2025-07-17 06:00: 0.0010
2025-07-17 07:00: 0.9990
2025-07-17 09:00: 0.0010
2025-07-17 10:00: 0.9990
Trade Summary: Total trades: 2, Buy volume: 0.00, Sell volume: 367.05, Average price: 0.4995, Price range: 0.0010 - 0.9980
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 554575
Question: Will Brad Lander’s vote share be between 12% and 15% in the first round of the NYC Democratic mayoral primary?
Volume: 15836.356804
Price History:
2025-07-18 02:00: 0.9990
2025-07-18 04:00: 0.0010
2025-07-18 05:00: 0.9990
2025-07-18 07:00: 0.0005
2025-07-18 08:00: 0.9995
2025-07-18 10:00: 0.0005
2025-07-18 11:00: 0.9995
2025-07-18 13:00: 0.0005
2025-07-18 14:00: 0.9995
2025-07-18 16:00: 0.0005
2025-07-18 17:00: 0.9995
2025-07-18 19:00: 0.0005
2025-07-18 20:00: 0.9995
2025-07-18 22:00: 0.0005
2025-07-18 23:00: 0.9995
2025-07-19 01:00: 0.0005
2025-07-19 02:00: 0.9995
2025-07-19 04:00: 0.0005
2025-07-19 05:00: 0.9995
2025-07-19 07:00: 0.0005
2025-07-19 08:00: 0.9995
2025-07-19 10:00: 0.0005
2025-07-19 11:00: 0.9995
2025-07-19 13:00: 0.0005
2025-07-19 14:00: 0.9995
2025-07-19 16:00: 0.0005
2025-07-19 17:00: 0.9995
2025-07-19 19:00: 0.0005
2025-07-19 20:00: 0.9995
2025-07-19 22:00: 0.0005
Trade Summary: Total trades: 222, Buy volume: 11954.77, Sell volume: 3881.59, Average price: 0.5015, Price range: 0.0010 - 0.9990
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike, wash_trading

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 554575
Question: Will Brad Lander’s vote share be between 12% and 15% in the first round of the NYC Democratic mayoral primary?
Volume: 15836.356804
Price History:
2025-07-20 14:00: 0.0005
2025-07-20 15:00: 0.9995
2025-07-20 17:00: 0.0005
2025-07-20 18:00: 0.9995
2025-07-20 20:00: 0.0005
2025-07-20 21:00: 0.9995
2025-07-20 23:00: 0.0005
2025-07-21 00:00: 0.9995
2025-07-21 02:00: 0.0005
2025-07-21 03:00: 0.9995
2025-07-21 05:00: 0.0005
2025-07-21 06:00: 0.9995
2025-07-21 08:00: 0.0005
2025-07-21 09:00: 0.9995
2025-07-21 11:00: 0.0005
2025-07-21 12:00: 0.9995
2025-07-21 14:00: 0.0005
2025-07-21 15:00: 0.9995
2025-07-21 17:00: 0.0005
2025-07-21 18:00: 0.9995
2025-07-21 20:00: 0.0005
2025-07-21 21:00: 0.9995
2025-07-21 23:00: 0.0005
2025-07-22 00:00: 0.9995
2025-07-22 02:00: 0.0005
2025-07-22 03:00: 0.9995
2025-07-22 05:00: 0.0005
2025-07-22 06:00: 0.9995
2025-07-22 08:00: 0.0005
2025-07-22 09:00: 0.9995
Trade Summary: Total trades: 222, Buy volume: 11954.77, Sell volume: 3881.59, Average price: 0.5015, Price range: 0.0010 - 0.9990
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike, wash_trading

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 554576
Question: Will Brad Lander’s vote share be greater than 15% in the first round of the NYC Democratic mayoral primary?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 5278.937341
Price History:
2025-06-20 20:00: 0.2450
2025-06-20 21:00: 0.2450
2025-06-20 22:00: 0.2500
2025-06-20 23:00: 0.2500
2025-06-21 00:00: 0.2500
2025-06-21 01:00: 0.0350
2025-06-21 02:00: 0.0610
2025-06-21 03:00: 0.0955
2025-06-21 04:00: 0.0975
2025-06-21 05:00: 0.0995
2025-06-21 06:00: 0.1000
2025-06-21 07:00: 0.1050
2025-06-21 08:00: 0.1035
2025-06-21 09:00: 0.0995
2025-06-21 10:00: 0.0895
2025-06-21 11:00: 0.0860
2025-06-21 12:00: 0.0890
2025-06-21 13:00: 0.0885
2025-06-21 14:00: 0.0885
2025-06-21 15:00: 0.0885
2025-06-21 16:00: 0.0870
2025-06-21 17:00: 0.0870
2025-06-21 18:00: 0.0870
2025-06-21 19:00: 0.0875
2025-06-21 20:00: 0.0875
2025-06-21 21:00: 0.0870
2025-06-21 22:00: 0.0875
2025-06-21 23:00: 0.0870
2025-06-22 00:00: 0.0880
2025-06-22 01:00: 0.0880
2025-06-22 02:00: 0.0880
2025-06-22 03:00: 0.0875
2025-06-22 04:00: 0.0875
2025-06-22 05:00: 0.0880
2025-06-22 06:00: 0.0880
2025-06-22 07:00: 0.0875
2025-06-22 08:00: 0.0870
2025-06-22 09:00: 0.0865
2025-06-22 10:00: 0.0865
2025-06-22 11:00: 0.0855
2025-06-22 12:00: 0.0855
2025-06-22 13:00: 0.0860
2025-06-22 14:00: 0.0860
2025-06-22 15:00: 0.0860
2025-06-22 16:00: 0.0860
2025-06-22 17:00: 0.0860
2025-06-22 18:00: 0.0860
2025-06-22 19:00: 0.0875
2025-06-22 20:00: 0.0875
2025-06-22 21:00: 0.0875
Trade Summary: Total trades: 21, Buy volume: 581.49, Sell volume: 20.00, Average price: 0.5970, Price range: 0.0500 - 0.9200

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 554576
Question: Will Brad Lander’s vote share be greater than 15% in the first round of the NYC Democratic mayoral primary?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 5278.937341
Price History:
2025-06-23 07:00: 0.9125
2025-06-23 08:00: 0.8110
2025-06-23 09:00: 0.7250
2025-06-23 10:00: 0.7725
2025-06-23 11:00: 0.7635
2025-06-23 12:00: 0.7700
2025-06-23 13:00: 0.7570
2025-06-23 14:00: 0.7615
2025-06-23 15:00: 0.7245
2025-06-23 16:00: 0.7100
2025-06-23 17:00: 0.7105
2025-06-23 18:00: 0.7260
2025-06-23 19:00: 0.7555
2025-06-23 20:00: 0.7520
2025-06-23 21:00: 0.7515
2025-06-23 22:00: 0.7525
2025-06-23 23:00: 0.7740
2025-06-24 00:00: 0.7735
2025-06-24 01:00: 0.7745
2025-06-24 02:00: 0.7740
2025-06-24 03:00: 0.7745
2025-06-24 04:00: 0.7740
2025-06-24 05:00: 0.7740
2025-06-24 06:00: 0.7740
2025-06-24 07:00: 0.8000
2025-06-24 08:00: 0.8000
2025-06-24 09:00: 0.8000
2025-06-24 10:00: 0.8000
2025-06-24 11:00: 0.8000
2025-06-24 12:00: 0.7995
2025-06-24 13:00: 0.8030
2025-06-24 14:00: 0.8075
2025-06-24 15:00: 0.8110
2025-06-24 16:00: 0.7995
2025-06-24 17:00: 0.8175
2025-06-24 18:00: 0.7990
2025-06-24 19:00: 0.8125
2025-06-24 20:00: 0.8150
2025-06-24 21:00: 0.8695
2025-06-24 22:00: 0.7485
2025-06-24 23:00: 0.7450
2025-06-25 00:00: 0.8540
2025-06-25 01:00: 0.9330
2025-06-25 02:00: 0.9515
2025-06-25 03:00: 0.9520
2025-06-25 04:00: 0.9595
2025-06-25 05:00: 0.9595
2025-06-25 06:00: 0.9595
2025-06-25 07:00: 0.9680
2025-06-25 08:00: 0.9730
Trade Summary: Total trades: 50, Buy volume: 1704.02, Sell volume: 1462.50, Average price: 0.5375, Price range: 0.0012 - 0.9960

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 554576
Question: Will Brad Lander’s vote share be greater than 15% in the first round of the NYC Democratic mayoral primary?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 5278.937341
Price History:
2025-06-25 19:00: 0.0120
2025-06-25 20:00: 0.0095
2025-06-25 21:00: 0.0100
2025-06-25 22:00: 0.0095
2025-06-25 23:00: 0.0105
2025-06-26 00:00: 0.0095
2025-06-26 01:00: 0.0095
2025-06-26 02:00: 0.0075
2025-06-26 03:00: 0.0095
2025-06-26 04:00: 0.0095
2025-06-26 05:00: 0.0095
2025-06-26 06:00: 0.0100
2025-06-26 07:00: 0.0095
2025-06-26 08:00: 0.0095
2025-06-26 09:00: 0.0095
2025-06-26 10:00: 0.0095
2025-06-26 11:00: 0.0095
2025-06-26 12:00: 0.0095
2025-06-26 13:00: 0.0095
2025-06-26 14:00: 0.0100
2025-06-26 15:00: 0.0100
2025-06-26 16:00: 0.0100
2025-06-26 17:00: 0.0105
2025-06-26 18:00: 0.0100
2025-06-26 19:00: 0.0095
2025-06-26 20:00: 0.0105
2025-06-26 21:00: 0.0090
2025-06-26 22:00: 0.0035
2025-06-26 23:00: 0.0090
2025-06-27 00:00: 0.0045
2025-06-27 01:00: 0.0090
2025-06-27 02:00: 0.0090
2025-06-27 03:00: 0.0090
2025-06-27 04:00: 0.0100
2025-06-27 05:00: 0.0100
2025-06-27 06:00: 0.0100
2025-06-27 07:00: 0.0100
2025-06-27 08:00: 0.0100
2025-06-27 09:00: 0.0100
2025-06-27 10:00: 0.0100
2025-06-27 11:00: 0.0100
2025-06-27 12:00: 0.0085
2025-06-27 13:00: 0.0095
2025-06-27 14:00: 0.0090
2025-06-27 15:00: 0.0085
2025-06-27 16:00: 0.0075
2025-06-27 17:00: 0.0075
2025-06-27 18:00: 0.0075
2025-06-27 19:00: 0.0075
2025-06-27 20:00: 0.0100
Trade Summary: Total trades: 7, Buy volume: 371.78, Sell volume: 503.75, Average price: 0.7095, Price range: 0.0019 - 0.9990

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 554576
Question: Will Brad Lander’s vote share be greater than 15% in the first round of the NYC Democratic mayoral primary?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 5278.937341
Price History:
2025-06-28 06:00: 0.9895
2025-06-28 07:00: 0.9900
2025-06-28 08:00: 0.9900
2025-06-28 09:00: 0.9900
2025-06-28 10:00: 0.9900
2025-06-28 11:00: 0.9900
2025-06-28 12:00: 0.9900
2025-06-28 13:00: 0.9900
2025-06-28 14:00: 0.9900
2025-06-28 15:00: 0.9900
2025-06-28 16:00: 0.9900
2025-06-28 17:00: 0.9900
2025-06-28 18:00: 0.9900
2025-06-28 19:00: 0.9900
2025-06-28 20:00: 0.9900
2025-06-28 21:00: 0.9900
2025-06-28 22:00: 0.9900
2025-06-28 23:00: 0.9900
2025-06-29 00:00: 0.9900
2025-06-29 01:00: 0.9900
2025-06-29 02:00: 0.9900
2025-06-29 03:00: 0.9900
2025-06-29 04:00: 0.9900
2025-06-29 05:00: 0.9900
2025-06-29 06:00: 0.9900
2025-06-29 07:00: 0.9900
2025-06-29 08:00: 0.9900
2025-06-29 09:00: 0.9935
2025-06-29 10:00: 0.9940
2025-06-29 11:00: 0.9945
2025-06-29 12:00: 0.9920
2025-06-29 13:00: 0.9920
2025-06-29 14:00: 0.9910
2025-06-29 15:00: 0.9900
2025-06-29 16:00: 0.9905
2025-06-29 17:00: 0.9925
2025-06-29 18:00: 0.9905
2025-06-29 19:00: 0.9910
2025-06-29 20:00: 0.9910
2025-06-29 21:00: 0.9935
2025-06-29 22:00: 0.9930
2025-06-29 23:00: 0.9915
2025-06-30 00:00: 0.9900
2025-06-30 01:00: 0.9920
2025-06-30 02:00: 0.9915
2025-06-30 03:00: 0.9920
2025-06-30 04:00: 0.9920
2025-06-30 05:00: 0.9920
2025-06-30 06:00: 0.9915
2025-06-30 07:00: 0.9910
Trade Summary: Total trades: 13, Buy volume: 184.99, Sell volume: 0.00, Average price: 0.9987, Price range: 0.9980 - 0.9990

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 554576
Question: Will Brad Lander’s vote share be greater than 15% in the first round of the NYC Democratic mayoral primary?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 5278.937341
Price History:
2025-06-30 18:00: 0.0085
2025-06-30 19:00: 0.0065
2025-06-30 20:00: 0.0065
2025-06-30 21:00: 0.0070
2025-06-30 22:00: 0.0065
2025-06-30 23:00: 0.0065
2025-07-01 00:00: 0.0070
2025-07-01 01:00: 0.0075
2025-07-01 02:00: 0.0065
2025-07-01 03:00: 0.0085
2025-07-01 04:00: 0.0065
2025-07-01 05:00: 0.0060
2025-07-01 06:00: 0.0060
2025-07-01 07:00: 0.0060
2025-07-01 08:00: 0.0060
2025-07-01 09:00: 0.0060
2025-07-01 10:00: 0.0105
2025-07-01 11:00: 0.0105
2025-07-01 12:00: 0.0105
2025-07-01 13:00: 0.0105
2025-07-01 14:00: 0.0005
2025-07-01 15:00: 0.0005
2025-07-01 16:00: 0.0005
2025-07-01 17:00: 0.0005
2025-07-01 18:00: 0.0005
2025-07-01 19:00: 0.0005
2025-07-01 20:00: 0.0005
2025-07-01 21:00: 0.0005
2025-07-01 22:00: 0.0100
2025-07-01 23:00: 0.0100
2025-07-02 00:00: 0.0045
2025-07-02 01:00: 0.0050
2025-07-02 02:00: 0.0055
2025-07-02 03:00: 0.0055
2025-07-02 04:00: 0.0050
2025-07-02 05:00: 0.0050
2025-07-02 06:00: 0.0050
2025-07-02 07:00: 0.0050
2025-07-02 08:00: 0.0050
2025-07-02 09:00: 0.0050
2025-07-02 10:00: 0.0050
2025-07-02 11:00: 0.0050
2025-07-02 12:00: 0.0100
2025-07-02 13:00: 0.0100
2025-07-02 14:00: 0.0100
2025-07-02 15:00: 0.0100
2025-07-02 16:00: 0.0100
2025-07-02 17:00: 0.0100
2025-07-02 18:00: 0.0100
2025-07-02 19:00: 0.0100
Trade Summary: Total trades: 10, Buy volume: 77.77, Sell volume: 50.00, Average price: 0.8001, Price range: 0.0083 - 0.9990

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 554576
Question: Will Brad Lander’s vote share be greater than 15% in the first round of the NYC Democratic mayoral primary?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 5278.937341
Price History:
2025-07-03 05:00: 0.9900
2025-07-03 06:00: 0.9900
2025-07-03 07:00: 0.9900
2025-07-03 08:00: 0.9900
2025-07-03 09:00: 0.9900
2025-07-03 10:00: 0.9900
2025-07-03 11:00: 0.9900
2025-07-03 12:00: 0.9900
2025-07-03 13:00: 0.9900
2025-07-03 14:00: 0.9900
2025-07-03 15:00: 0.9900
2025-07-03 16:00: 0.9900
2025-07-03 17:00: 0.9900
2025-07-03 18:00: 0.9900
2025-07-03 19:00: 0.9900
2025-07-03 20:00: 0.9900
2025-07-03 21:00: 0.9900
2025-07-03 22:00: 0.9900
2025-07-03 23:00: 0.9900
2025-07-04 00:00: 0.9900
2025-07-04 01:00: 0.9900
2025-07-04 02:00: 0.9900
2025-07-04 03:00: 0.9900
2025-07-04 04:00: 0.9900
2025-07-04 05:00: 0.9900
2025-07-04 06:00: 0.9900
2025-07-04 07:00: 0.9900
2025-07-04 08:00: 0.9900
2025-07-04 09:00: 0.9900
2025-07-04 10:00: 0.9935
2025-07-04 11:00: 0.9940
2025-07-04 12:00: 0.9930
2025-07-04 13:00: 0.9940
2025-07-04 14:00: 0.9930
2025-07-04 15:00: 0.9945
2025-07-04 16:00: 0.9945
2025-07-04 17:00: 0.9925
2025-07-04 18:00: 0.9935
2025-07-04 19:00: 0.9930
2025-07-04 20:00: 0.9950
2025-07-04 21:00: 0.9935
2025-07-04 22:00: 0.9945
2025-07-04 23:00: 0.9925
2025-07-05 00:00: 0.9945
2025-07-05 01:00: 0.9950
2025-07-05 02:00: 0.9930
2025-07-05 03:00: 0.9945
2025-07-05 04:00: 0.9920
2025-07-05 05:00: 0.9945
2025-07-05 06:00: 0.9940
Trade Summary: Total trades: 1, Buy volume: 0.00, Sell volume: 103.49, Average price: 0.9800, Price range: 0.9800 - 0.9800

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 554576
Question: Will Brad Lander’s vote share be greater than 15% in the first round of the NYC Democratic mayoral primary?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 5278.937341
Price History:
2025-07-05 17:00: 0.0050
2025-07-05 18:00: 0.0070
2025-07-05 19:00: 0.0055
2025-07-05 20:00: 0.0005
2025-07-05 21:00: 0.0005
2025-07-05 22:00: 0.0005
2025-07-05 23:00: 0.0005
2025-07-06 00:00: 0.0005
2025-07-06 01:00: 0.0005
2025-07-06 02:00: 0.0005
2025-07-06 03:00: 0.0005
2025-07-06 04:00: 0.0005
2025-07-06 05:00: 0.0005
2025-07-06 06:00: 0.0005
2025-07-06 07:00: 0.0005
2025-07-06 08:00: 0.0005
2025-07-06 09:00: 0.0005
2025-07-06 10:00: 0.0005
2025-07-06 11:00: 0.0005
2025-07-06 12:00: 0.0005
2025-07-06 13:00: 0.0005
2025-07-06 14:00: 0.0005
2025-07-06 15:00: 0.0005
2025-07-06 16:00: 0.0005
2025-07-06 17:00: 0.0005
2025-07-06 18:00: 0.0005
2025-07-06 19:00: 0.0005
2025-07-06 20:00: 0.0005
2025-07-06 21:00: 0.0005
2025-07-06 22:00: 0.0005
2025-07-06 23:00: 0.0005
2025-07-07 00:00: 0.0005
2025-07-07 01:00: 0.0005
2025-07-07 02:00: 0.0005
2025-07-07 03:00: 0.0005
2025-07-07 04:00: 0.0005
2025-07-07 05:00: 0.0005
2025-07-07 06:00: 0.0005
2025-07-07 07:00: 0.0005
2025-07-07 08:00: 0.0005
2025-07-07 09:00: 0.0005
2025-07-07 10:00: 0.0005
2025-07-07 11:00: 0.0005
2025-07-07 12:00: 0.0005
2025-07-07 13:00: 0.0005
2025-07-07 14:00: 0.0005
2025-07-07 15:00: 0.0005
2025-07-07 16:00: 0.0005
2025-07-07 17:00: 0.0005
2025-07-07 18:00: 0.0005
Trade Summary: Total trades: 1, Buy volume: 0.00, Sell volume: 11.31, Average price: 0.9990, Price range: 0.9990 - 0.9990

Output: Yes