Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 515879
Question: Will the AfD win over 30% of the vote in the German election?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 4769632.023507
Price History:
2024-12-18 11:00: 0.0850
2024-12-18 14:00: 0.0245
2024-12-18 17:00: 0.0140
2024-12-18 20:00: 0.0135
2024-12-18 23:00: 0.0170
2024-12-19 02:00: 0.0155
2024-12-19 05:00: 0.0150
2024-12-19 08:00: 0.0160
2024-12-19 11:00: 0.0155
2024-12-19 14:00: 0.0115
2024-12-19 17:00: 0.0140
2024-12-19 20:00: 0.0150
2024-12-19 23:00: 0.0145
2024-12-20 02:00: 0.0130
2024-12-20 05:00: 0.0160
2024-12-20 08:00: 0.0250
2024-12-20 11:00: 0.0235
2024-12-20 14:00: 0.0295
2024-12-20 17:00: 0.0345
2024-12-20 20:00: 0.0390
2024-12-20 23:00: 0.0360
2024-12-21 02:00: 0.0360
2024-12-21 05:00: 0.0360
2024-12-21 08:00: 0.0360
2024-12-21 11:00: 0.0370
2024-12-21 14:00: 0.0375
2024-12-21 17:00: 0.0375
2024-12-21 20:00: 0.0405
2024-12-21 23:00: 0.0400
2024-12-22 02:00: 0.0395
2024-12-22 05:00: 0.0390
2024-12-22 08:00: 0.0460
2024-12-22 11:00: 0.0405
2024-12-22 14:00: 0.0395
2024-12-22 17:00: 0.0445
2024-12-22 20:00: 0.0360
2024-12-22 23:00: 0.0330
2024-12-23 02:00: 0.0355
2024-12-23 05:00: 0.0345
2024-12-23 08:00: 0.0530
2024-12-23 11:00: 0.0550
2024-12-23 14:00: 0.0535
2024-12-23 17:00: 0.0535
2024-12-23 20:00: 0.0550
2024-12-23 23:00: 0.0530
2024-12-24 02:00: 0.0530
2024-12-24 05:00: 0.0555
2024-12-24 08:00: 0.0530
2024-12-24 11:00: 0.0555
2024-12-24 14:00: 0.0555
Trade Summary: No trades available

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 515879
Question: Will the AfD win over 30% of the vote in the German election?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 4769632.023507
Price History:
2024-12-25 01:00: 0.9460
2024-12-25 04:00: 0.9460
2024-12-25 07:00: 0.9460
2024-12-25 10:00: 0.9455
2024-12-25 13:00: 0.9470
2024-12-25 16:00: 0.9470
2024-12-25 19:00: 0.9460
2024-12-25 22:00: 0.9415
2024-12-26 01:00: 0.9370
2024-12-26 04:00: 0.9415
2024-12-26 07:00: 0.9485
2024-12-26 10:00: 0.9450
2024-12-26 13:00: 0.9390
2024-12-26 16:00: 0.9395
2024-12-26 19:00: 0.9375
2024-12-26 22:00: 0.9385
2024-12-27 01:00: 0.9345
2024-12-27 04:00: 0.9370
2024-12-27 07:00: 0.9460
2024-12-27 10:00: 0.9450
2024-12-27 13:00: 0.9335
2024-12-27 16:00: 0.9445
2024-12-27 19:00: 0.9485
2024-12-27 22:00: 0.9460
2024-12-28 01:00: 0.9460
2024-12-28 04:00: 0.9460
2024-12-28 07:00: 0.9485
2024-12-28 10:00: 0.9455
2024-12-28 13:00: 0.9465
2024-12-28 16:00: 0.9460
2024-12-28 19:00: 0.9460
2024-12-28 22:00: 0.9460
2024-12-29 01:00: 0.9395
2024-12-29 04:00: 0.9395
2024-12-29 07:00: 0.9400
2024-12-29 10:00: 0.9485
2024-12-29 13:00: 0.9415
2024-12-29 16:00: 0.9445
2024-12-29 19:00: 0.9405
2024-12-29 22:00: 0.9405
2024-12-30 01:00: 0.9415
2024-12-30 04:00: 0.9440
2024-12-30 07:00: 0.9445
2024-12-30 10:00: 0.9430
2024-12-30 13:00: 0.9450
2024-12-30 16:00: 0.9475
2024-12-30 19:00: 0.9480
2024-12-30 22:00: 0.9475
2024-12-31 01:00: 0.9475
2024-12-31 04:00: 0.9475
Trade Summary: No trades available

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 515879
Question: Will the AfD win over 30% of the vote in the German election?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 4769632.023507
Price History:
2024-12-31 16:00: 0.0525
2024-12-31 19:00: 0.0505
2024-12-31 22:00: 0.0520
2025-01-01 01:00: 0.0505
2025-01-01 04:00: 0.0520
2025-01-01 07:00: 0.0515
2025-01-01 10:00: 0.0520
2025-01-01 13:00: 0.0520
2025-01-01 16:00: 0.0510
2025-01-01 19:00: 0.0520
2025-01-01 22:00: 0.0505
2025-01-02 01:00: 0.0505
2025-01-02 04:00: 0.0505
2025-01-02 07:00: 0.0535
2025-01-02 10:00: 0.0525
2025-01-02 13:00: 0.0615
2025-01-02 16:00: 0.0625
2025-01-02 19:00: 0.0615
2025-01-02 22:00: 0.0530
2025-01-03 01:00: 0.0525
2025-01-03 04:00: 0.0635
2025-01-03 07:00: 0.0615
2025-01-03 10:00: 0.0630
2025-01-03 13:00: 0.0605
2025-01-03 16:00: 0.0615
2025-01-03 19:00: 0.0555
2025-01-03 22:00: 0.0555
2025-01-04 01:00: 0.0615
2025-01-04 04:00: 0.0615
2025-01-04 07:00: 0.0565
2025-01-04 10:00: 0.0610
2025-01-04 13:00: 0.0615
2025-01-04 16:00: 0.0590
2025-01-04 19:00: 0.0585
2025-01-04 22:00: 0.0585
2025-01-05 01:00: 0.0575
2025-01-05 04:00: 0.0585
2025-01-05 07:00: 0.0625
2025-01-05 10:00: 0.0635
2025-01-05 13:00: 0.0625
2025-01-05 16:00: 0.0635
2025-01-05 19:00: 0.0695
2025-01-05 22:00: 0.0685
2025-01-06 01:00: 0.0700
2025-01-06 04:00: 0.0695
2025-01-06 07:00: 0.0705
2025-01-06 10:00: 0.1045
2025-01-06 13:00: 0.0705
2025-01-06 16:00: 0.0630
2025-01-06 19:00: 0.0625
Trade Summary: No trades available

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 515879
Question: Will the AfD win over 30% of the vote in the German election?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 4769632.023507
Price History:
2025-01-07 06:00: 0.9340
2025-01-07 09:00: 0.9390
2025-01-07 12:00: 0.9345
2025-01-07 15:00: 0.9345
2025-01-07 18:00: 0.9330
2025-01-07 21:00: 0.9275
2025-01-08 00:00: 0.9320
2025-01-08 03:00: 0.9325
2025-01-08 06:00: 0.9310
2025-01-08 09:00: 0.9255
2025-01-08 12:00: 0.9300
2025-01-08 15:00: 0.9235
2025-01-08 18:00: 0.9285
2025-01-08 21:00: 0.9285
2025-01-09 00:00: 0.9315
2025-01-09 03:00: 0.9295
2025-01-09 06:00: 0.9250
2025-01-09 09:00: 0.9285
2025-01-09 12:00: 0.9270
2025-01-09 15:00: 0.9315
2025-01-09 18:00: 0.9330
2025-01-09 21:00: 0.9360
2025-01-10 00:00: 0.9440
2025-01-10 03:00: 0.9435
2025-01-10 06:00: 0.9435
2025-01-10 09:00: 0.9470
2025-01-10 12:00: 0.9470
2025-01-10 15:00: 0.9485
2025-01-10 18:00: 0.9495
2025-01-10 21:00: 0.9495
2025-01-11 00:00: 0.9495
2025-01-11 03:00: 0.9495
2025-01-11 06:00: 0.9495
2025-01-11 09:00: 0.9495
2025-01-11 12:00: 0.9465
2025-01-11 15:00: 0.9480
2025-01-11 18:00: 0.9330
2025-01-11 21:00: 0.9345
2025-01-12 00:00: 0.9345
2025-01-12 03:00: 0.9335
2025-01-12 06:00: 0.9330
2025-01-12 09:00: 0.9300
2025-01-12 12:00: 0.9265
2025-01-12 15:00: 0.9355
2025-01-12 18:00: 0.9375
2025-01-12 21:00: 0.9370
2025-01-13 00:00: 0.9370
2025-01-13 03:00: 0.9375
2025-01-13 06:00: 0.9365
2025-01-13 09:00: 0.9370
Trade Summary: No trades available

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 515879
Question: Will the AfD win over 30% of the vote in the German election?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 4769632.023507
Price History:
2025-01-13 21:00: 0.0560
2025-01-14 00:00: 0.0560
2025-01-14 03:00: 0.0575
2025-01-14 06:00: 0.0530
2025-01-14 09:00: 0.0535
2025-01-14 12:00: 0.0510
2025-01-14 15:00: 0.0520
2025-01-14 18:00: 0.0535
2025-01-14 21:00: 0.0540
2025-01-15 00:00: 0.0515
2025-01-15 03:00: 0.0525
2025-01-15 06:00: 0.0520
2025-01-15 09:00: 0.0450
2025-01-15 12:00: 0.0455
2025-01-15 15:00: 0.0485
2025-01-15 18:00: 0.0480
2025-01-15 21:00: 0.0485
2025-01-16 00:00: 0.0480
2025-01-16 03:00: 0.0475
2025-01-16 06:00: 0.0455
2025-01-16 09:00: 0.0455
2025-01-16 12:00: 0.0455
2025-01-16 15:00: 0.0450
2025-01-16 18:00: 0.0435
2025-01-16 21:00: 0.0435
2025-01-17 00:00: 0.0430
2025-01-17 03:00: 0.0430
2025-01-17 06:00: 0.0450
2025-01-17 09:00: 0.0455
2025-01-17 12:00: 0.0435
2025-01-17 15:00: 0.0435
2025-01-17 18:00: 0.0455
2025-01-17 21:00: 0.0455
2025-01-18 00:00: 0.0455
2025-01-18 03:00: 0.0485
2025-01-18 06:00: 0.0455
2025-01-18 09:00: 0.0465
2025-01-18 12:00: 0.0355
2025-01-18 15:00: 0.0345
2025-01-18 18:00: 0.0410
2025-01-18 21:00: 0.0410
2025-01-19 00:00: 0.0385
2025-01-19 03:00: 0.0350
2025-01-19 06:00: 0.0365
2025-01-19 09:00: 0.0445
2025-01-19 12:00: 0.0430
2025-01-19 15:00: 0.0425
2025-01-19 18:00: 0.0405
2025-01-19 21:00: 0.0405
2025-01-20 00:00: 0.0405
Trade Summary: No trades available

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 515879
Question: Will the AfD win over 30% of the vote in the German election?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 4769632.023507
Price History:
2025-01-20 11:00: 0.9565
2025-01-20 14:00: 0.9645
2025-01-20 17:00: 0.9685
2025-01-20 20:00: 0.9730
2025-01-20 23:00: 0.9735
2025-01-21 02:00: 0.9735
2025-01-21 05:00: 0.9755
2025-01-21 08:00: 0.9805
2025-01-21 11:00: 0.9735
2025-01-21 14:00: 0.9710
2025-01-21 17:00: 0.9680
2025-01-21 20:00: 0.9830
2025-01-21 23:00: 0.9815
2025-01-22 02:00: 0.9820
2025-01-22 05:00: 0.9780
2025-01-22 08:00: 0.9685
2025-01-22 11:00: 0.9710
2025-01-22 14:00: 0.9630
2025-01-22 17:00: 0.9695
2025-01-22 20:00: 0.9680
2025-01-22 23:00: 0.9665
2025-01-23 02:00: 0.9650
2025-01-23 05:00: 0.9730
2025-01-23 08:00: 0.9670
2025-01-23 11:00: 0.9655
2025-01-23 14:00: 0.9575
2025-01-23 17:00: 0.9390
2025-01-23 20:00: 0.9455
2025-01-23 23:00: 0.9370
2025-01-24 02:00: 0.9340
2025-01-24 05:00: 0.9540
2025-01-24 08:00: 0.9565
2025-01-24 11:00: 0.9565
2025-01-24 14:00: 0.9580
2025-01-24 17:00: 0.9580
2025-01-24 20:00: 0.9645
2025-01-24 23:00: 0.9670
2025-01-25 02:00: 0.9710
2025-01-25 05:00: 0.9730
2025-01-25 08:00: 0.9715
2025-01-25 11:00: 0.9725
2025-01-25 14:00: 0.9725
2025-01-25 17:00: 0.9705
2025-01-25 20:00: 0.9565
2025-01-25 23:00: 0.9475
2025-01-26 02:00: 0.9440
2025-01-26 05:00: 0.9465
2025-01-26 08:00: 0.9530
2025-01-26 11:00: 0.9495
2025-01-26 14:00: 0.9525
Trade Summary: No trades available

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 515879
Question: Will the AfD win over 30% of the vote in the German election?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 4769632.023507
Price History:
2025-01-27 02:00: 0.0455
2025-01-27 05:00: 0.0465
2025-01-27 08:00: 0.0460
2025-01-27 11:00: 0.0430
2025-01-27 14:00: 0.0415
2025-01-27 17:00: 0.0310
2025-01-27 20:00: 0.0310
2025-01-27 23:00: 0.0325
2025-01-28 02:00: 0.0325
2025-01-28 05:00: 0.0325
2025-01-28 08:00: 0.0320
2025-01-28 11:00: 0.0350
2025-01-28 14:00: 0.0310
2025-01-28 17:00: 0.0320
2025-01-28 20:00: 0.0285
2025-01-28 23:00: 0.0285
2025-01-29 02:00: 0.0305
2025-01-29 05:00: 0.0405
2025-01-29 08:00: 0.0380
2025-01-29 11:00: 0.0380
2025-01-29 14:00: 0.0340
2025-01-29 17:00: 0.0380
2025-01-29 20:00: 0.0425
2025-01-29 23:00: 0.0400
2025-01-30 02:00: 0.0370
2025-01-30 05:00: 0.0370
2025-01-30 08:00: 0.0365
2025-01-30 11:00: 0.0360
2025-01-30 14:00: 0.0360
2025-01-30 17:00: 0.0395
2025-01-30 20:00: 0.0355
2025-01-30 23:00: 0.0355
2025-01-31 02:00: 0.0325
2025-01-31 05:00: 0.0330
2025-01-31 08:00: 0.0425
2025-01-31 11:00: 0.0445
2025-01-31 14:00: 0.0355
2025-01-31 17:00: 0.0415
2025-01-31 20:00: 0.0395
2025-01-31 23:00: 0.0390
2025-02-01 02:00: 0.0385
2025-02-01 05:00: 0.0420
2025-02-01 08:00: 0.0365
2025-02-01 11:00: 0.0365
2025-02-01 14:00: 0.0420
2025-02-01 17:00: 0.0360
2025-02-01 20:00: 0.0370
2025-02-01 23:00: 0.0360
2025-02-02 02:00: 0.0360
2025-02-02 05:00: 0.0360
Trade Summary: No trades available

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 515879
Question: Will the AfD win over 30% of the vote in the German election?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 4769632.023507
Price History:
2025-02-02 16:00: 0.9575
2025-02-02 19:00: 0.9580
2025-02-02 22:00: 0.9580
2025-02-03 01:00: 0.9595
2025-02-03 04:00: 0.9605
2025-02-03 07:00: 0.9570
2025-02-03 10:00: 0.9565
2025-02-03 13:00: 0.9590
2025-02-03 16:00: 0.9590
2025-02-03 19:00: 0.9630
2025-02-03 22:00: 0.9610
2025-02-04 01:00: 0.9610
2025-02-04 04:00: 0.9595
2025-02-04 07:00: 0.9720
2025-02-04 10:00: 0.9730
2025-02-04 13:00: 0.9660
2025-02-04 16:00: 0.9705
2025-02-04 19:00: 0.9650
2025-02-04 22:00: 0.9635
2025-02-05 01:00: 0.9680
2025-02-05 04:00: 0.9730
2025-02-05 07:00: 0.9705
2025-02-05 10:00: 0.9695
2025-02-05 13:00: 0.9585
2025-02-05 16:00: 0.9495
2025-02-05 19:00: 0.9485
2025-02-05 22:00: 0.9475
2025-02-06 01:00: 0.9545
2025-02-06 04:00: 0.9495
2025-02-06 07:00: 0.9510
2025-02-06 10:00: 0.9520
2025-02-06 13:00: 0.9555
2025-02-06 16:00: 0.9615
2025-02-06 19:00: 0.9645
2025-02-06 22:00: 0.9650
2025-02-07 01:00: 0.9630
2025-02-07 04:00: 0.9610
2025-02-07 07:00: 0.9675
2025-02-07 10:00: 0.9670
2025-02-07 13:00: 0.9675
2025-02-07 16:00: 0.9605
2025-02-07 19:00: 0.9610
2025-02-07 22:00: 0.9615
2025-02-08 01:00: 0.9610
2025-02-08 04:00: 0.9680
2025-02-08 07:00: 0.9690
2025-02-08 10:00: 0.9720
2025-02-08 13:00: 0.9710
2025-02-08 16:00: 0.9685
2025-02-08 19:00: 0.9690
Trade Summary: No trades available

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 515879
Question: Will the AfD win over 30% of the vote in the German election?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 4769632.023507
Price History:
2025-02-09 07:00: 0.0310
2025-02-09 10:00: 0.0315
2025-02-09 13:00: 0.0365
2025-02-09 16:00: 0.0300
2025-02-09 19:00: 0.0290
2025-02-09 22:00: 0.0290
2025-02-10 01:00: 0.0305
2025-02-10 04:00: 0.0285
2025-02-10 07:00: 0.0255
2025-02-10 10:00: 0.0235
2025-02-10 13:00: 0.0235
2025-02-10 16:00: 0.0220
2025-02-10 19:00: 0.0220
2025-02-10 22:00: 0.0220
2025-02-11 01:00: 0.0230
2025-02-11 04:00: 0.0245
2025-02-11 07:00: 0.0320
2025-02-11 10:00: 0.0350
2025-02-11 13:00: 0.0285
2025-02-11 16:00: 0.0270
2025-02-11 19:00: 0.0335
2025-02-11 22:00: 0.0335
2025-02-12 01:00: 0.0380
2025-02-12 04:00: 0.0410
2025-02-12 07:00: 0.0405
2025-02-12 10:00: 0.0345
2025-02-12 13:00: 0.0285
2025-02-12 16:00: 0.0285
2025-02-12 19:00: 0.0270
2025-02-12 22:00: 0.0305
2025-02-13 01:00: 0.0300
2025-02-13 04:00: 0.0300
2025-02-13 07:00: 0.0285
2025-02-13 10:00: 0.0275
2025-02-13 13:00: 0.0310
2025-02-13 16:00: 0.0320
2025-02-13 19:00: 0.0270
2025-02-13 22:00: 0.0270
2025-02-14 01:00: 0.0270
2025-02-14 04:00: 0.0235
2025-02-14 07:00: 0.0270
2025-02-14 10:00: 0.0230
2025-02-14 13:00: 0.0230
2025-02-14 16:00: 0.0255
2025-02-14 19:00: 0.0255
2025-02-14 22:00: 0.0255
2025-02-15 01:00: 0.0235
2025-02-15 04:00: 0.0215
2025-02-15 07:00: 0.0235
2025-02-15 10:00: 0.0255
Trade Summary: No trades available

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 515879
Question: Will the AfD win over 30% of the vote in the German election?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 4769632.023507
Price History:
2025-02-15 21:00: 0.9785
2025-02-16 00:00: 0.9835
2025-02-16 03:00: 0.9830
2025-02-16 06:00: 0.9765
2025-02-16 09:00: 0.9800
2025-02-16 12:00: 0.9750
2025-02-16 15:00: 0.9820
2025-02-16 18:00: 0.9775
2025-02-16 21:00: 0.9770
2025-02-17 00:00: 0.9760
2025-02-17 03:00: 0.9755
2025-02-17 06:00: 0.9785
2025-02-17 09:00: 0.9785
2025-02-17 12:00: 0.9780
2025-02-17 15:00: 0.9795
2025-02-17 18:00: 0.9795
2025-02-17 21:00: 0.9805
2025-02-18 00:00: 0.9780
2025-02-18 03:00: 0.9805
2025-02-18 06:00: 0.9810
2025-02-18 09:00: 0.9765
2025-02-18 12:00: 0.9795
2025-02-18 15:00: 0.9785
2025-02-18 18:00: 0.9780
2025-02-18 21:00: 0.9780
2025-02-19 00:00: 0.9770
2025-02-19 03:00: 0.9760
2025-02-19 06:00: 0.9760
2025-02-19 09:00: 0.9750
2025-02-19 12:00: 0.9770
2025-02-19 15:00: 0.9745
2025-02-19 18:00: 0.9770
2025-02-19 21:00: 0.9790
2025-02-20 00:00: 0.9775
2025-02-20 03:00: 0.9765
2025-02-20 06:00: 0.9765
2025-02-20 09:00: 0.9845
2025-02-20 12:00: 0.9845
2025-02-20 15:00: 0.9760
2025-02-20 18:00: 0.9765
2025-02-20 21:00: 0.9790
2025-02-21 00:00: 0.9765
2025-02-21 03:00: 0.9785
2025-02-21 06:00: 0.9805
2025-02-21 09:00: 0.9780
2025-02-21 12:00: 0.9795
2025-02-21 15:00: 0.9855
2025-02-21 18:00: 0.9810
2025-02-21 21:00: 0.9830
2025-02-22 00:00: 0.9825
Trade Summary: No trades available

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 515879
Question: Will the AfD win over 30% of the vote in the German election?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 4769632.023507
Price History:
2025-02-22 12:00: 0.0200
2025-02-22 15:00: 0.0195
2025-02-22 18:00: 0.0180
2025-02-22 21:00: 0.0160
2025-02-23 00:00: 0.0200
2025-02-23 03:00: 0.0175
2025-02-23 06:00: 0.0155
2025-02-23 09:00: 0.0145
2025-02-23 12:00: 0.0125
2025-02-23 15:00: 0.0005
2025-02-23 18:00: 0.0005
2025-02-23 21:00: 0.0005
2025-02-24 00:00: 0.0005
2025-02-24 03:00: 0.0005
2025-02-24 06:00: 0.0005
2025-02-24 09:00: 0.0005
2025-02-24 12:00: 0.0015
2025-02-24 15:00: 0.0010
2025-02-24 18:00: 0.0015
2025-02-24 21:00: 0.0015
2025-02-25 00:00: 0.0015
2025-02-25 03:00: 0.0020
2025-02-25 06:00: 0.0010
2025-02-25 09:00: 0.0015
2025-02-25 12:00: 0.0015
2025-02-25 15:00: 0.0040
2025-02-25 18:00: 0.0045
2025-02-25 21:00: 0.0035
2025-02-26 00:00: 0.0005
2025-02-26 03:00: 0.0005
2025-02-26 06:00: 0.0005
2025-02-26 09:00: 0.0005
2025-02-26 12:00: 0.0005
2025-02-26 15:00: 0.0020
2025-02-26 18:00: 0.0025
2025-02-26 21:00: 0.0005
2025-02-27 00:00: 0.0020
2025-02-27 03:00: 0.0015
2025-02-27 06:00: 0.0020
2025-02-27 09:00: 0.0015
2025-02-27 12:00: 0.0005
2025-02-27 15:00: 0.0005
2025-02-27 18:00: 0.0005
2025-02-27 21:00: 0.0005
2025-02-28 00:00: 0.0005
2025-02-28 03:00: 0.0005
2025-02-28 06:00: 0.0005
2025-02-28 09:00: 0.0005
2025-02-28 12:00: 0.0005
2025-02-28 15:00: 0.0005
Trade Summary: No trades available

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 515879
Question: Will the AfD win over 30% of the vote in the German election?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 4769632.023507
Price History:
2025-03-01 02:00: 0.9995
2025-03-01 05:00: 0.9995
2025-03-01 08:00: 0.9995
2025-03-01 11:00: 0.9995
2025-03-01 14:00: 0.9995
2025-03-01 17:00: 0.9995
2025-03-01 20:00: 0.9995
2025-03-01 23:00: 0.9995
2025-03-02 02:00: 0.9995
2025-03-02 05:00: 0.9995
2025-03-02 08:00: 0.9995
2025-03-02 11:00: 0.9995
2025-03-02 14:00: 0.9995
2025-03-02 17:00: 0.9995
2025-03-02 20:00: 0.9995
2025-03-02 23:00: 0.9995
2025-03-03 02:00: 0.9995
2025-03-03 05:00: 0.9995
2025-03-03 08:00: 0.9995
2025-03-03 11:00: 0.9995
2025-03-03 14:00: 0.9995
2025-03-03 17:00: 0.9995
2025-03-03 20:00: 0.9995
2025-03-03 23:00: 0.9995
2025-03-04 02:00: 0.9995
2025-03-04 05:00: 0.9995
2025-03-04 08:00: 0.9995
2025-03-04 11:00: 0.9995
2025-03-04 14:00: 0.9995
2025-03-04 17:00: 0.9995
2025-03-04 20:00: 0.9995
2025-03-04 23:00: 0.9995
2025-03-05 02:00: 0.9995
2025-03-05 05:00: 0.9995
2025-03-05 08:00: 0.9995
2025-03-05 11:00: 0.9995
2025-03-05 14:00: 0.9995
2025-03-05 17:00: 0.9995
2025-03-05 20:00: 0.9995
2025-03-05 23:00: 0.9995
2025-03-06 02:00: 0.9995
2025-03-06 05:00: 0.9995
2025-03-06 08:00: 0.9995
2025-03-06 11:00: 0.9995
2025-03-06 14:00: 0.9995
2025-03-06 17:00: 0.9995
2025-03-06 20:00: 0.9995
2025-03-06 23:00: 0.9995
2025-03-07 02:00: 0.9995
2025-03-07 05:00: 0.9995
Trade Summary: No trades available

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 515879
Question: Will the AfD win over 30% of the vote in the German election?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 4769632.023507
Price History:
2025-03-07 17:00: 0.0005
2025-03-07 20:00: 0.0005
2025-03-07 23:00: 0.0005
2025-03-08 02:00: 0.0005
2025-03-08 05:00: 0.0005
2025-03-08 08:00: 0.0005
2025-03-08 11:00: 0.0005
2025-03-08 14:00: 0.0005
2025-03-08 17:00: 0.0005
2025-03-08 20:00: 0.0005
2025-03-08 23:00: 0.0005
2025-03-09 03:00: 0.0005
2025-03-09 06:00: 0.0005
2025-03-09 09:00: 0.0005
2025-03-09 12:00: 0.0005
2025-03-09 15:00: 0.0005
2025-03-09 18:00: 0.0005
2025-03-09 21:00: 0.0005
2025-03-10 00:00: 0.0005
2025-03-10 03:00: 0.0005
2025-03-10 06:00: 0.0005
2025-03-10 09:00: 0.0005
2025-03-10 12:00: 0.0005
2025-03-10 15:00: 0.0005
2025-03-10 18:00: 0.0005
2025-03-10 21:00: 0.0005
2025-03-11 00:00: 0.0005
2025-03-11 03:00: 0.0005
2025-03-11 06:00: 0.0005
2025-03-11 09:00: 0.0005
2025-03-11 12:00: 0.0005
2025-03-11 15:00: 0.0005
2025-03-11 18:00: 0.0005
2025-03-11 21:00: 0.0005
2025-03-12 00:00: 0.0005
2025-03-12 03:00: 0.0005
2025-03-12 06:00: 0.0005
2025-03-12 09:00: 0.0005
2025-03-12 12:00: 0.0005
2025-03-12 15:00: 0.0005
2025-03-12 18:00: 0.0005
2025-03-12 21:00: 0.0005
2025-03-13 00:00: 0.0005
2025-03-13 03:00: 0.0005
2025-03-13 06:00: 0.0005
2025-03-13 09:00: 0.0005
2025-03-13 12:00: 0.0005
2025-03-13 15:00: 0.0005
2025-03-13 18:00: 0.0005
2025-03-13 21:00: 0.0005
Trade Summary: No trades available

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 515879
Question: Will the AfD win over 30% of the vote in the German election?
Volume: 4769632.023507
Price History:
2024-12-18 11:00: 0.0850
2024-12-18 16:00: 0.0120
2024-12-18 21:00: 0.0170
2024-12-19 02:00: 0.0155
2024-12-19 07:00: 0.0150
2024-12-19 12:00: 0.0155
2024-12-19 17:00: 0.0140
2024-12-19 22:00: 0.0150
2024-12-20 03:00: 0.0145
2024-12-20 08:00: 0.0250
2024-12-20 13:00: 0.0295
2024-12-20 18:00: 0.0415
2024-12-20 23:00: 0.0360
2024-12-21 04:00: 0.0360
2024-12-21 09:00: 0.0360
2024-12-21 14:00: 0.0375
2024-12-21 19:00: 0.0395
2024-12-22 00:00: 0.0405
2024-12-22 05:00: 0.0390
2024-12-22 10:00: 0.0400
2024-12-22 15:00: 0.0450
2024-12-22 20:00: 0.0360
2024-12-23 01:00: 0.0325
2024-12-23 06:00: 0.0355
2024-12-23 11:00: 0.0550
2024-12-23 16:00: 0.0550
2024-12-23 21:00: 0.0550
2024-12-24 02:00: 0.0530
2024-12-24 07:00: 0.0540
2024-12-24 12:00: 0.0555
Trade Summary: No trades available
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 515879
Question: Will the AfD win over 30% of the vote in the German election?
Volume: 4769632.023507
Price History:
2024-12-25 01:00: 0.9460
2024-12-25 06:00: 0.9465
2024-12-25 11:00: 0.9470
2024-12-25 16:00: 0.9470
2024-12-25 21:00: 0.9445
2024-12-26 02:00: 0.9370
2024-12-26 07:00: 0.9485
2024-12-26 12:00: 0.9390
2024-12-26 17:00: 0.9375
2024-12-26 22:00: 0.9385
2024-12-27 03:00: 0.9370
2024-12-27 08:00: 0.9450
2024-12-27 13:00: 0.9335
2024-12-27 18:00: 0.9445
2024-12-27 23:00: 0.9460
2024-12-28 04:00: 0.9460
2024-12-28 09:00: 0.9485
2024-12-28 14:00: 0.9465
2024-12-28 19:00: 0.9460
2024-12-29 00:00: 0.9380
2024-12-29 05:00: 0.9395
2024-12-29 10:00: 0.9485
2024-12-29 15:00: 0.9405
2024-12-29 20:00: 0.9405
2024-12-30 01:00: 0.9415
2024-12-30 06:00: 0.9440
2024-12-30 11:00: 0.9440
2024-12-30 16:00: 0.9475
2024-12-30 21:00: 0.9475
2024-12-31 02:00: 0.9475
Trade Summary: No trades available
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 515879
Question: Will the AfD win over 30% of the vote in the German election?
Volume: 4769632.023507
Price History:
2024-12-31 16:00: 0.0525
2024-12-31 21:00: 0.0520
2025-01-01 02:00: 0.0505
2025-01-01 07:00: 0.0515
2025-01-01 12:00: 0.0520
2025-01-01 17:00: 0.0520
2025-01-01 22:00: 0.0505
2025-01-02 03:00: 0.0505
2025-01-02 08:00: 0.0550
2025-01-02 13:00: 0.0615
2025-01-02 18:00: 0.0615
2025-01-02 23:00: 0.0550
2025-01-03 04:00: 0.0635
2025-01-03 09:00: 0.0620
2025-01-03 14:00: 0.0605
2025-01-03 19:00: 0.0555
2025-01-04 00:00: 0.0555
2025-01-04 05:00: 0.0565
2025-01-04 10:00: 0.0610
2025-01-04 15:00: 0.0610
2025-01-04 20:00: 0.0585
2025-01-05 01:00: 0.0575
2025-01-05 06:00: 0.0625
2025-01-05 11:00: 0.0625
2025-01-05 16:00: 0.0635
2025-01-05 21:00: 0.0685
2025-01-06 02:00: 0.0690
2025-01-06 07:00: 0.0705
2025-01-06 12:00: 0.0815
2025-01-06 17:00: 0.0625
Trade Summary: No trades available
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 515879
Question: Will the AfD win over 30% of the vote in the German election?
Volume: 4769632.023507
Price History:
2025-01-07 06:00: 0.9340
2025-01-07 11:00: 0.9330
2025-01-07 16:00: 0.9330
2025-01-07 21:00: 0.9275
2025-01-08 02:00: 0.9310
2025-01-08 07:00: 0.9245
2025-01-08 12:00: 0.9300
2025-01-08 17:00: 0.9245
2025-01-08 22:00: 0.9275
2025-01-09 03:00: 0.9295
2025-01-09 08:00: 0.9285
2025-01-09 13:00: 0.9310
2025-01-09 18:00: 0.9330
2025-01-09 23:00: 0.9440
2025-01-10 04:00: 0.9405
2025-01-10 09:00: 0.9470
2025-01-10 14:00: 0.9485
2025-01-10 19:00: 0.9495
2025-01-11 00:00: 0.9495
2025-01-11 05:00: 0.9495
2025-01-11 10:00: 0.9495
2025-01-11 15:00: 0.9480
2025-01-11 20:00: 0.9345
2025-01-12 01:00: 0.9345
2025-01-12 06:00: 0.9330
2025-01-12 11:00: 0.9250
2025-01-12 16:00: 0.9335
2025-01-12 21:00: 0.9370
2025-01-13 02:00: 0.9370
2025-01-13 07:00: 0.9375
Trade Summary: No trades available
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 515879
Question: Will the AfD win over 30% of the vote in the German election?
Volume: 4769632.023507
Price History:
2025-01-13 21:00: 0.0560
2025-01-14 02:00: 0.0555
2025-01-14 07:00: 0.0510
2025-01-14 12:00: 0.0510
2025-01-14 17:00: 0.0485
2025-01-14 22:00: 0.0515
2025-01-15 03:00: 0.0525
2025-01-15 08:00: 0.0465
2025-01-15 13:00: 0.0455
2025-01-15 18:00: 0.0480
2025-01-15 23:00: 0.0480
2025-01-16 04:00: 0.0460
2025-01-16 09:00: 0.0455
2025-01-16 14:00: 0.0445
2025-01-16 19:00: 0.0445
2025-01-17 00:00: 0.0430
2025-01-17 05:00: 0.0450
2025-01-17 10:00: 0.0435
2025-01-17 15:00: 0.0435
2025-01-17 20:00: 0.0455
2025-01-18 01:00: 0.0455
2025-01-18 06:00: 0.0455
2025-01-18 11:00: 0.0445
2025-01-18 16:00: 0.0345
2025-01-18 21:00: 0.0410
2025-01-19 02:00: 0.0350
2025-01-19 07:00: 0.0470
2025-01-19 12:00: 0.0430
2025-01-19 17:00: 0.0405
2025-01-19 22:00: 0.0405
Trade Summary: No trades available
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 515879
Question: Will the AfD win over 30% of the vote in the German election?
Volume: 4769632.023507
Price History:
2025-01-20 11:00: 0.9565
2025-01-20 16:00: 0.9615
2025-01-20 21:00: 0.9745
2025-01-21 02:00: 0.9735
2025-01-21 07:00: 0.9810
2025-01-21 12:00: 0.9660
2025-01-21 17:00: 0.9680
2025-01-21 22:00: 0.9815
2025-01-22 03:00: 0.9820
2025-01-22 08:00: 0.9685
2025-01-22 13:00: 0.9705
2025-01-22 18:00: 0.9675
2025-01-22 23:00: 0.9665
2025-01-23 04:00: 0.9685
2025-01-23 09:00: 0.9730
2025-01-23 14:00: 0.9575
2025-01-23 19:00: 0.9470
2025-01-24 00:00: 0.9370
2025-01-24 05:00: 0.9540
2025-01-24 10:00: 0.9580
2025-01-24 15:00: 0.9580
2025-01-24 20:00: 0.9645
2025-01-25 01:00: 0.9710
2025-01-25 06:00: 0.9750
2025-01-25 11:00: 0.9725
2025-01-25 16:00: 0.9705
2025-01-25 21:00: 0.9480
2025-01-26 02:00: 0.9440
2025-01-26 07:00: 0.9445
2025-01-26 12:00: 0.9510
Trade Summary: No trades available
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 515879
Question: Will the AfD win over 30% of the vote in the German election?
Volume: 4769632.023507
Price History:
2025-01-27 02:00: 0.0455
2025-01-27 07:00: 0.0460
2025-01-27 12:00: 0.0405
2025-01-27 17:00: 0.0310
2025-01-27 22:00: 0.0325
2025-01-28 03:00: 0.0325
2025-01-28 08:00: 0.0320
2025-01-28 13:00: 0.0345
2025-01-28 18:00: 0.0300
2025-01-28 23:00: 0.0285
2025-01-29 04:00: 0.0355
2025-01-29 09:00: 0.0395
2025-01-29 14:00: 0.0340
2025-01-29 19:00: 0.0440
2025-01-30 00:00: 0.0400
2025-01-30 05:00: 0.0370
2025-01-30 10:00: 0.0360
2025-01-30 15:00: 0.0405
2025-01-30 20:00: 0.0355
2025-01-31 01:00: 0.0335
2025-01-31 06:00: 0.0485
2025-01-31 11:00: 0.0445
2025-01-31 16:00: 0.0365
2025-01-31 21:00: 0.0395
2025-02-01 02:00: 0.0385
2025-02-01 07:00: 0.0390
2025-02-01 12:00: 0.0380
2025-02-01 17:00: 0.0360
2025-02-01 22:00: 0.0365
2025-02-02 03:00: 0.0360
Trade Summary: No trades available
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 515879
Question: Will the AfD win over 30% of the vote in the German election?
Volume: 4769632.023507
Price History:
2025-02-02 16:00: 0.9575
2025-02-02 21:00: 0.9580
2025-02-03 02:00: 0.9635
2025-02-03 07:00: 0.9570
2025-02-03 12:00: 0.9610
2025-02-03 17:00: 0.9610
2025-02-03 22:00: 0.9610
2025-02-04 03:00: 0.9595
2025-02-04 08:00: 0.9725
2025-02-04 13:00: 0.9660
2025-02-04 18:00: 0.9710
2025-02-04 23:00: 0.9640
2025-02-05 04:00: 0.9730
2025-02-05 09:00: 0.9695
2025-02-05 14:00: 0.9600
2025-02-05 19:00: 0.9485
2025-02-06 00:00: 0.9480
2025-02-06 05:00: 0.9505
2025-02-06 10:00: 0.9520
2025-02-06 15:00: 0.9560
2025-02-06 20:00: 0.9650
2025-02-07 01:00: 0.9630
2025-02-07 06:00: 0.9660
2025-02-07 11:00: 0.9675
2025-02-07 16:00: 0.9605
2025-02-07 21:00: 0.9585
2025-02-08 02:00: 0.9600
2025-02-08 07:00: 0.9690
2025-02-08 12:00: 0.9720
2025-02-08 17:00: 0.9685
Trade Summary: No trades available
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 515879
Question: Will the AfD win over 30% of the vote in the German election?
Volume: 4769632.023507
Price History:
2025-02-09 07:00: 0.0310
2025-02-09 12:00: 0.0295
2025-02-09 17:00: 0.0295
2025-02-09 22:00: 0.0290
2025-02-10 03:00: 0.0285
2025-02-10 08:00: 0.0255
2025-02-10 13:00: 0.0235
2025-02-10 18:00: 0.0220
2025-02-10 23:00: 0.0220
2025-02-11 04:00: 0.0245
2025-02-11 09:00: 0.0330
2025-02-11 14:00: 0.0315
2025-02-11 19:00: 0.0335
2025-02-12 00:00: 0.0385
2025-02-12 05:00: 0.0410
2025-02-12 10:00: 0.0345
2025-02-12 15:00: 0.0290
2025-02-12 20:00: 0.0290
2025-02-13 01:00: 0.0300
2025-02-13 06:00: 0.0280
2025-02-13 11:00: 0.0270
2025-02-13 16:00: 0.0320
2025-02-13 21:00: 0.0270
2025-02-14 02:00: 0.0250
2025-02-14 07:00: 0.0270
2025-02-14 12:00: 0.0230
2025-02-14 17:00: 0.0255
2025-02-14 22:00: 0.0255
2025-02-15 03:00: 0.0230
2025-02-15 08:00: 0.0235
Trade Summary: No trades available
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 515879
Question: Will the AfD win over 30% of the vote in the German election?
Volume: 4769632.023507
Price History:
2025-02-15 21:00: 0.9785
2025-02-16 02:00: 0.9845
2025-02-16 07:00: 0.9780
2025-02-16 12:00: 0.9750
2025-02-16 17:00: 0.9735
2025-02-16 22:00: 0.9765
2025-02-17 03:00: 0.9755
2025-02-17 08:00: 0.9805
2025-02-17 13:00: 0.9780
2025-02-17 18:00: 0.9795
2025-02-17 23:00: 0.9805
2025-02-18 04:00: 0.9795
2025-02-18 09:00: 0.9765
2025-02-18 14:00: 0.9770
2025-02-18 19:00: 0.9775
2025-02-19 00:00: 0.9770
2025-02-19 05:00: 0.9785
2025-02-19 10:00: 0.9780
2025-02-19 15:00: 0.9745
2025-02-19 20:00: 0.9795
2025-02-20 01:00: 0.9770
2025-02-20 06:00: 0.9765
2025-02-20 11:00: 0.9810
2025-02-20 16:00: 0.9785
2025-02-20 21:00: 0.9790
2025-02-21 02:00: 0.9780
2025-02-21 07:00: 0.9810
2025-02-21 12:00: 0.9795
2025-02-21 17:00: 0.9785
2025-02-21 22:00: 0.9820
Trade Summary: No trades available
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 515879
Question: Will the AfD win over 30% of the vote in the German election?
Volume: 4769632.023507
Price History:
2025-02-22 12:00: 0.0200
2025-02-22 17:00: 0.0160
2025-02-22 22:00: 0.0185
2025-02-23 03:00: 0.0175
2025-02-23 08:00: 0.0140
2025-02-23 13:00: 0.0015
2025-02-23 18:00: 0.0005
2025-02-23 23:00: 0.0005
2025-02-24 04:00: 0.0005
2025-02-24 09:00: 0.0005
2025-02-24 14:00: 0.0015
2025-02-24 19:00: 0.0015
2025-02-25 00:00: 0.0015
2025-02-25 05:00: 0.0015
2025-02-25 10:00: 0.0015
2025-02-25 15:00: 0.0040
2025-02-25 20:00: 0.0055
2025-02-26 01:00: 0.0005
2025-02-26 06:00: 0.0005
2025-02-26 11:00: 0.0005
2025-02-26 16:00: 0.0020
2025-02-26 21:00: 0.0005
2025-02-27 02:00: 0.0020
2025-02-27 07:00: 0.0015
2025-02-27 12:00: 0.0005
2025-02-27 17:00: 0.0005
2025-02-27 22:00: 0.0005
2025-02-28 03:00: 0.0005
2025-02-28 08:00: 0.0005
2025-02-28 13:00: 0.0005
Trade Summary: No trades available
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 515879
Question: Will the AfD win over 30% of the vote in the German election?
Volume: 4769632.023507
Price History:
2025-03-01 02:00: 0.9995
2025-03-01 07:00: 0.9995
2025-03-01 12:00: 0.9995
2025-03-01 17:00: 0.9995
2025-03-01 22:00: 0.9995
2025-03-02 03:00: 0.9995
2025-03-02 08:00: 0.9995
2025-03-02 13:00: 0.9995
2025-03-02 18:00: 0.9995
2025-03-02 23:00: 0.9995
2025-03-03 04:00: 0.9995
2025-03-03 09:00: 0.9995
2025-03-03 14:00: 0.9995
2025-03-03 19:00: 0.9995
2025-03-04 00:00: 0.9995
2025-03-04 05:00: 0.9995
2025-03-04 10:00: 0.9995
2025-03-04 15:00: 0.9995
2025-03-04 20:00: 0.9995
2025-03-05 01:00: 0.9995
2025-03-05 06:00: 0.9995
2025-03-05 11:00: 0.9995
2025-03-05 16:00: 0.9995
2025-03-05 21:00: 0.9995
2025-03-06 02:00: 0.9995
2025-03-06 07:00: 0.9995
2025-03-06 12:00: 0.9995
2025-03-06 17:00: 0.9995
2025-03-06 22:00: 0.9995
2025-03-07 03:00: 0.9995
Trade Summary: No trades available
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 515879
Question: Will the AfD win over 30% of the vote in the German election?
Volume: 4769632.023507
Price History:
2025-03-07 17:00: 0.0005
2025-03-07 22:00: 0.0005
2025-03-08 03:00: 0.0005
2025-03-08 08:00: 0.0005
2025-03-08 13:00: 0.0005
2025-03-08 18:00: 0.0005
2025-03-08 23:00: 0.0005
2025-03-09 05:00: 0.0005
2025-03-09 10:00: 0.0005
2025-03-09 15:00: 0.0005
2025-03-09 20:00: 0.0005
2025-03-10 01:00: 0.0005
2025-03-10 06:00: 0.0005
2025-03-10 11:00: 0.0005
2025-03-10 16:00: 0.0005
2025-03-10 21:00: 0.0005
2025-03-11 02:00: 0.0005
2025-03-11 07:00: 0.0005
2025-03-11 12:00: 0.0005
2025-03-11 17:00: 0.0005
2025-03-11 22:00: 0.0005
2025-03-12 03:00: 0.0005
2025-03-12 08:00: 0.0005
2025-03-12 13:00: 0.0005
2025-03-12 18:00: 0.0005
2025-03-12 23:00: 0.0005
2025-03-13 04:00: 0.0005
2025-03-13 09:00: 0.0005
2025-03-13 14:00: 0.0005
2025-03-13 19:00: 0.0005
Trade Summary: No trades available
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 518098
Question: Will 53 Senators vote to confirm RFK as Secretary of HHS?
Volume: 48060.259668
Price History:
2025-01-10 15:00: 0.1600
2025-01-10 17:00: 0.1450
2025-01-10 19:00: 0.1450
2025-01-10 21:00: 0.1450
2025-01-10 23:00: 0.1450
2025-01-11 01:00: 0.1450
2025-01-11 03:00: 0.1450
2025-01-11 05:00: 0.1200
2025-01-11 07:00: 0.1200
2025-01-11 09:00: 0.1200
2025-01-11 11:00: 0.1200
2025-01-11 13:00: 0.1200
2025-01-11 15:00: 0.1200
2025-01-11 17:00: 0.1200
2025-01-11 19:00: 0.2150
2025-01-11 21:00: 0.1450
2025-01-11 23:00: 0.2200
2025-01-12 01:00: 0.2200
2025-01-12 03:00: 0.2300
2025-01-12 05:00: 0.1700
2025-01-12 07:00: 0.1700
2025-01-12 09:00: 0.1900
2025-01-12 11:00: 0.1900
2025-01-12 13:00: 0.1900
2025-01-12 15:00: 0.1850
2025-01-12 17:00: 0.1850
2025-01-12 19:00: 0.1850
2025-01-12 21:00: 0.1850
2025-01-12 23:00: 0.1850
2025-01-13 01:00: 0.1850
Trade Summary: Total trades: 4, Buy volume: 80.00, Sell volume: 0.00, Average price: 0.8000, Price range: 0.7900 - 0.8100
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 518098
Question: Will 53 Senators vote to confirm RFK as Secretary of HHS?
Volume: 48060.259668
Price History:
2025-01-13 05:00: 0.8150
2025-01-13 07:00: 0.8150
2025-01-13 09:00: 0.8150
2025-01-13 11:00: 0.8200
2025-01-13 13:00: 0.8200
2025-01-13 15:00: 0.8250
2025-01-13 17:00: 0.8200
2025-01-13 19:00: 0.8200
2025-01-13 21:00: 0.8200
2025-01-13 23:00: 0.8200
2025-01-14 01:00: 0.8200
2025-01-14 03:00: 0.8200
2025-01-14 05:00: 0.8200
2025-01-14 07:00: 0.8150
2025-01-14 09:00: 0.8150
2025-01-14 11:00: 0.8150
2025-01-14 13:00: 0.8150
2025-01-14 15:00: 0.8200
2025-01-14 17:00: 0.8200
2025-01-14 19:00: 0.8150
2025-01-14 21:00: 0.8250
2025-01-14 23:00: 0.8200
2025-01-15 01:00: 0.8150
2025-01-15 03:00: 0.8200
2025-01-15 05:00: 0.8250
2025-01-15 07:00: 0.8150
2025-01-15 09:00: 0.8200
2025-01-15 11:00: 0.8200
2025-01-15 13:00: 0.8200
2025-01-15 15:00: 0.8200
Trade Summary: Total trades: 2, Buy volume: 30.00, Sell volume: 40.00, Average price: 0.5000, Price range: 0.1700 - 0.8300
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 518098
Question: Will 53 Senators vote to confirm RFK as Secretary of HHS?
Volume: 48060.259668
Price History:
2025-01-15 20:00: 0.1750
2025-01-15 22:00: 0.1800
2025-01-16 00:00: 0.1800
2025-01-16 02:00: 0.1800
2025-01-16 04:00: 0.1800
2025-01-16 06:00: 0.1800
2025-01-16 08:00: 0.1800
2025-01-16 10:00: 0.1800
2025-01-16 12:00: 0.1800
2025-01-16 14:00: 0.1800
2025-01-16 16:00: 0.1800
2025-01-16 18:00: 0.1750
2025-01-16 20:00: 0.1800
2025-01-16 22:00: 0.1800
2025-01-17 00:00: 0.1800
2025-01-17 02:00: 0.1800
2025-01-17 04:00: 0.1800
2025-01-17 06:00: 0.1800
2025-01-17 08:00: 0.1800
2025-01-17 10:00: 0.1800
2025-01-17 12:00: 0.1750
2025-01-17 14:00: 0.1750
2025-01-17 16:00: 0.1800
2025-01-17 18:00: 0.1800
2025-01-17 20:00: 0.1800
2025-01-17 22:00: 0.1800
2025-01-18 00:00: 0.1800
2025-01-18 02:00: 0.1800
2025-01-18 04:00: 0.1800
2025-01-18 06:00: 0.1800
Trade Summary: Total trades: 6, Buy volume: 356.38, Sell volume: 7.62, Average price: 0.7200, Price range: 0.1700 - 0.8300
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 518098
Question: Will 53 Senators vote to confirm RFK as Secretary of HHS?
Volume: 48060.259668
Price History:
2025-01-18 10:00: 0.8200
2025-01-18 12:00: 0.8200
2025-01-18 14:00: 0.8200
2025-01-18 16:00: 0.8200
2025-01-18 18:00: 0.8200
2025-01-18 20:00: 0.8200
2025-01-18 22:00: 0.8200
2025-01-19 00:00: 0.8200
2025-01-19 02:00: 0.8250
2025-01-19 04:00: 0.8200
2025-01-19 06:00: 0.8200
2025-01-19 08:00: 0.8200
2025-01-19 10:00: 0.8200
2025-01-19 12:00: 0.8200
2025-01-19 14:00: 0.8200
2025-01-19 16:00: 0.8200
2025-01-19 18:00: 0.8200
2025-01-19 20:00: 0.8200
2025-01-19 22:00: 0.8200
2025-01-20 00:00: 0.8200
2025-01-20 02:00: 0.8200
2025-01-20 04:00: 0.8200
2025-01-20 06:00: 0.8200
2025-01-20 08:00: 0.8200
2025-01-20 10:00: 0.8200
2025-01-20 12:00: 0.8200
2025-01-20 14:00: 0.8250
2025-01-20 16:00: 0.8200
2025-01-20 18:00: 0.8200
2025-01-20 20:00: 0.8200
Trade Summary: Total trades: 7, Buy volume: 157.00, Sell volume: 49.66, Average price: 0.5471, Price range: 0.1700 - 0.8300
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 518098
Question: Will 53 Senators vote to confirm RFK as Secretary of HHS?
Volume: 48060.259668
Price History:
2025-01-21 01:00: 0.1800
2025-01-21 03:00: 0.1800
2025-01-21 05:00: 0.1800
2025-01-21 07:00: 0.1750
2025-01-21 09:00: 0.1800
2025-01-21 11:00: 0.1800
2025-01-21 13:00: 0.1800
2025-01-21 15:00: 0.1800
2025-01-21 17:00: 0.1800
2025-01-21 19:00: 0.1800
2025-01-21 21:00: 0.1800
2025-01-21 23:00: 0.3050
2025-01-22 01:00: 0.3050
2025-01-22 03:00: 0.2550
2025-01-22 05:00: 0.2750
2025-01-22 07:00: 0.2600
2025-01-22 09:00: 0.2700
2025-01-22 11:00: 0.2800
2025-01-22 13:00: 0.2600
2025-01-22 15:00: 0.2350
2025-01-22 17:00: 0.2350
2025-01-22 19:00: 0.2350
2025-01-22 21:00: 0.2300
2025-01-22 23:00: 0.2300
2025-01-23 01:00: 0.2450
2025-01-23 03:00: 0.2250
2025-01-23 05:00: 0.2250
2025-01-23 07:00: 0.2250
2025-01-23 09:00: 0.2300
2025-01-23 11:00: 0.2350
Trade Summary: Total trades: 47, Buy volume: 1298.90, Sell volume: 124.07, Average price: 0.4570, Price range: 0.1700 - 0.8323
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 518098
Question: Will 53 Senators vote to confirm RFK as Secretary of HHS?
Volume: 48060.259668
Price History:
2025-01-23 15:00: 0.7600
2025-01-23 17:00: 0.7600
2025-01-23 19:00: 0.7650
2025-01-23 21:00: 0.7650
2025-01-23 23:00: 0.7650
2025-01-24 01:00: 0.7700
2025-01-24 03:00: 0.7700
2025-01-24 05:00: 0.7700
2025-01-24 07:00: 0.7700
2025-01-24 09:00: 0.7700
2025-01-24 11:00: 0.7700
2025-01-24 13:00: 0.7750
2025-01-24 15:00: 0.7700
2025-01-24 17:00: 0.7700
2025-01-24 19:00: 0.7950
2025-01-24 21:00: 0.7950
2025-01-24 23:00: 0.7950
2025-01-25 01:00: 0.8200
2025-01-25 03:00: 0.8300
2025-01-25 05:00: 0.8250
2025-01-25 07:00: 0.8250
2025-01-25 09:00: 0.8350
2025-01-25 11:00: 0.8200
2025-01-25 13:00: 0.8300
2025-01-25 15:00: 0.8450
2025-01-25 17:00: 0.8400
2025-01-25 19:00: 0.8400
2025-01-25 21:00: 0.8400
2025-01-25 23:00: 0.8400
2025-01-26 01:00: 0.8400
Trade Summary: Total trades: 32, Buy volume: 1353.69, Sell volume: 310.11, Average price: 0.4845, Price range: 0.1500 - 0.8500
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike, wash_trading

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 518098
Question: Will 53 Senators vote to confirm RFK as Secretary of HHS?
Volume: 48060.259668
Price History:
2025-01-26 06:00: 0.1600
2025-01-26 08:00: 0.1600
2025-01-26 10:00: 0.1600
2025-01-26 12:00: 0.1600
2025-01-26 14:00: 0.1600
2025-01-26 16:00: 0.1600
2025-01-26 18:00: 0.1400
2025-01-26 20:00: 0.0750
2025-01-26 22:00: 0.0750
2025-01-27 00:00: 0.0550
2025-01-27 02:00: 0.0800
2025-01-27 04:00: 0.0900
2025-01-27 06:00: 0.0900
2025-01-27 08:00: 0.0950
2025-01-27 10:00: 0.0900
2025-01-27 12:00: 0.1000
2025-01-27 14:00: 0.1000
2025-01-27 16:00: 0.1000
2025-01-27 18:00: 0.1000
2025-01-27 20:00: 0.1050
2025-01-27 22:00: 0.1000
2025-01-28 00:00: 0.1000
2025-01-28 02:00: 0.1000
2025-01-28 04:00: 0.1050
2025-01-28 06:00: 0.1050
2025-01-28 08:00: 0.1050
2025-01-28 10:00: 0.1000
2025-01-28 12:00: 0.1100
2025-01-28 14:00: 0.1100
2025-01-28 16:00: 0.1100
Trade Summary: Total trades: 57, Buy volume: 1859.28, Sell volume: 751.48, Average price: 0.6757, Price range: 0.0900 - 0.9100
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike, wash_trading

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 518098
Question: Will 53 Senators vote to confirm RFK as Secretary of HHS?
Volume: 48060.259668
Price History:
2025-01-28 20:00: 0.8700
2025-01-28 22:00: 0.8700
2025-01-29 00:00: 0.8700
2025-01-29 02:00: 0.8750
2025-01-29 04:00: 0.8750
2025-01-29 06:00: 0.8750
2025-01-29 08:00: 0.8750
2025-01-29 10:00: 0.8750
2025-01-29 12:00: 0.8750
2025-01-29 14:00: 0.8900
2025-01-29 16:00: 0.9500
2025-01-29 18:00: 0.9350
2025-01-29 20:00: 0.9500
2025-01-29 22:00: 0.9400
2025-01-30 00:00: 0.9400
2025-01-30 02:00: 0.9450
2025-01-30 04:00: 0.8650
2025-01-30 06:00: 0.9150
2025-01-30 08:00: 0.8700
2025-01-30 10:00: 0.9150
2025-01-30 12:00: 0.9150
2025-01-30 14:00: 0.9400
2025-01-30 16:00: 0.9600
2025-01-30 18:00: 0.9600
2025-01-30 20:00: 0.9600
2025-01-30 22:00: 0.9610
2025-01-31 00:00: 0.9625
2025-01-31 02:00: 0.9610
2025-01-31 04:00: 0.9605
2025-01-31 06:00: 0.9615
Trade Summary: Total trades: 56, Buy volume: 5418.33, Sell volume: 1045.85, Average price: 0.5394, Price range: 0.0300 - 0.9700
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike, wash_trading

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 518098
Question: Will 53 Senators vote to confirm RFK as Secretary of HHS?
Volume: 48060.259668
Price History:
2025-01-31 11:00: 0.0390
2025-01-31 13:00: 0.0380
2025-01-31 15:00: 0.0395
2025-01-31 17:00: 0.0380
2025-01-31 19:00: 0.0380
2025-01-31 21:00: 0.0395
2025-01-31 23:00: 0.0380
2025-02-01 01:00: 0.0400
2025-02-01 03:00: 0.0390
2025-02-01 05:00: 0.0385
2025-02-01 07:00: 0.0385
2025-02-01 09:00: 0.0475
2025-02-01 11:00: 0.0480
2025-02-01 13:00: 0.0480
2025-02-01 15:00: 0.0450
2025-02-01 17:00: 0.0475
2025-02-01 19:00: 0.0480
2025-02-01 21:00: 0.0710
2025-02-01 23:00: 0.0710
2025-02-02 01:00: 0.0810
2025-02-02 03:00: 0.0830
2025-02-02 05:00: 0.0705
2025-02-02 07:00: 0.0710
2025-02-02 09:00: 0.0695
2025-02-02 11:00: 0.0665
2025-02-02 13:00: 0.0600
2025-02-02 15:00: 0.0585
2025-02-02 17:00: 0.0745
2025-02-02 19:00: 0.0745
2025-02-02 21:00: 0.0635
Trade Summary: Total trades: 38, Buy volume: 4751.42, Sell volume: 993.00, Average price: 0.5485, Price range: 0.0351 - 0.9580
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 518098
Question: Will 53 Senators vote to confirm RFK as Secretary of HHS?
Volume: 48060.259668
Price History:
2025-02-03 01:00: 0.9340
2025-02-03 03:00: 0.9335
2025-02-03 05:00: 0.9335
2025-02-03 07:00: 0.9335
2025-02-03 09:00: 0.9290
2025-02-03 11:00: 0.9295
2025-02-03 13:00: 0.9320
2025-02-03 15:00: 0.9325
2025-02-03 17:00: 0.9360
2025-02-03 19:00: 0.9355
2025-02-03 21:00: 0.9425
2025-02-03 23:00: 0.9445
2025-02-04 01:00: 0.9450
2025-02-04 03:00: 0.9415
2025-02-04 05:00: 0.9415
2025-02-04 07:00: 0.9415
2025-02-04 09:00: 0.8010
2025-02-04 11:00: 0.7730
2025-02-04 13:00: 0.8195
2025-02-04 15:00: 0.8520
2025-02-04 17:00: 0.8310
2025-02-04 19:00: 0.8285
2025-02-04 21:00: 0.8175
2025-02-04 23:00: 0.8375
2025-02-05 01:00: 0.8355
2025-02-05 03:00: 0.8170
2025-02-05 05:00: 0.8205
2025-02-05 07:00: 0.8220
2025-02-05 09:00: 0.8175
2025-02-05 11:00: 0.8165
Trade Summary: Total trades: 37, Buy volume: 2113.61, Sell volume: 341.95, Average price: 0.5085, Price range: 0.0640 - 0.9640
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 518098
Question: Will 53 Senators vote to confirm RFK as Secretary of HHS?
Volume: 48060.259668
Price History:
2025-02-05 16:00: 0.1880
2025-02-05 18:00: 0.1950
2025-02-05 20:00: 0.1915
2025-02-05 22:00: 0.2200
2025-02-06 00:00: 0.1995
2025-02-06 02:00: 0.1950
2025-02-06 04:00: 0.1970
2025-02-06 06:00: 0.1910
2025-02-06 08:00: 0.1960
2025-02-06 10:00: 0.1935
2025-02-06 12:00: 0.1975
2025-02-06 14:00: 0.1935
2025-02-06 16:00: 0.1925
2025-02-06 18:00: 0.1855
2025-02-06 20:00: 0.1880
2025-02-06 22:00: 0.1725
2025-02-07 00:00: 0.1055
2025-02-07 02:00: 0.1050
2025-02-07 04:00: 0.1015
2025-02-07 06:00: 0.1015
2025-02-07 08:00: 0.0995
2025-02-07 10:00: 0.0995
2025-02-07 12:00: 0.0540
2025-02-07 14:00: 0.0550
2025-02-07 16:00: 0.0695
2025-02-07 18:00: 0.0730
2025-02-07 20:00: 0.0805
2025-02-07 22:00: 0.0805
2025-02-08 00:00: 0.0850
2025-02-08 02:00: 0.0850
Trade Summary: Total trades: 68, Buy volume: 1293.87, Sell volume: 2703.00, Average price: 0.5574, Price range: 0.0510 - 0.9500
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike, wash_trading

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 518098
Question: Will 53 Senators vote to confirm RFK as Secretary of HHS?
Volume: 48060.259668
Price History:
2025-02-08 06:00: 0.9165
2025-02-08 08:00: 0.9145
2025-02-08 10:00: 0.9165
2025-02-08 12:00: 0.9205
2025-02-08 14:00: 0.9210
2025-02-08 16:00: 0.9175
2025-02-08 18:00: 0.9175
2025-02-08 20:00: 0.9155
2025-02-08 22:00: 0.9150
2025-02-09 00:00: 0.9145
2025-02-09 02:00: 0.9160
2025-02-09 04:00: 0.9175
2025-02-09 06:00: 0.9190
2025-02-09 08:00: 0.9185
2025-02-09 10:00: 0.9225
2025-02-09 12:00: 0.9230
2025-02-09 14:00: 0.9230
2025-02-09 16:00: 0.9225
2025-02-09 18:00: 0.9225
2025-02-09 20:00: 0.9250
2025-02-09 22:00: 0.9250
2025-02-10 00:00: 0.9250
2025-02-10 02:00: 0.9260
2025-02-10 04:00: 0.9250
2025-02-10 06:00: 0.9260
2025-02-10 08:00: 0.9255
2025-02-10 10:00: 0.9285
2025-02-10 12:00: 0.9315
2025-02-10 14:00: 0.9325
2025-02-10 16:00: 0.9310
Trade Summary: Total trades: 44, Buy volume: 2875.49, Sell volume: 2022.03, Average price: 0.4449, Price range: 0.0598 - 0.9399
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 518098
Question: Will 53 Senators vote to confirm RFK as Secretary of HHS?
Volume: 48060.259668
Price History:
2025-02-10 21:00: 0.0850
2025-02-10 23:00: 0.0845
2025-02-11 01:00: 0.0805
2025-02-11 03:00: 0.0800
2025-02-11 05:00: 0.0800
2025-02-11 07:00: 0.0780
2025-02-11 09:00: 0.0790
2025-02-11 11:00: 0.0780
2025-02-11 13:00: 0.0790
2025-02-11 15:00: 0.0780
2025-02-11 17:00: 0.1240
2025-02-11 19:00: 0.1130
2025-02-11 21:00: 0.0855
2025-02-11 23:00: 0.0860
2025-02-12 01:00: 0.0825
2025-02-12 03:00: 0.0860
2025-02-12 05:00: 0.0865
2025-02-12 07:00: 0.0865
2025-02-12 09:00: 0.0855
2025-02-12 11:00: 0.0885
2025-02-12 13:00: 0.1350
2025-02-12 15:00: 0.1395
2025-02-12 17:00: 0.1210
2025-02-12 19:00: 0.0985
2025-02-12 21:00: 0.1320
2025-02-12 23:00: 0.1075
2025-02-13 01:00: 0.0735
2025-02-13 03:00: 0.0660
2025-02-13 05:00: 0.0695
2025-02-13 07:00: 0.0650
Trade Summary: Total trades: 239, Buy volume: 10607.40, Sell volume: 5368.78, Average price: 0.5321, Price range: 0.0600 - 0.9400
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike, wash_trading

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 515897
Question: Will the AfD win 15-20% of the vote in the German election?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 4533058.575216
Price History:
2024-12-18 11:00: 0.5300
2024-12-18 14:00: 0.4600
2024-12-18 17:00: 0.4900
2024-12-18 20:00: 0.5000
2024-12-18 23:00: 0.5000
2024-12-19 02:00: 0.5000
2024-12-19 05:00: 0.5000
2024-12-19 08:00: 0.5000
2024-12-19 11:00: 0.4950
2024-12-19 14:00: 0.5150
2024-12-19 17:00: 0.5200
2024-12-19 20:00: 0.5200
2024-12-19 23:00: 0.5200
2024-12-20 02:00: 0.5200
2024-12-20 05:00: 0.5200
2024-12-20 08:00: 0.5150
2024-12-20 11:00: 0.5250
2024-12-20 14:00: 0.5150
2024-12-20 17:00: 0.5100
2024-12-20 20:00: 0.4800
2024-12-20 23:00: 0.4750
2024-12-21 02:00: 0.4700
2024-12-21 05:00: 0.4300
2024-12-21 08:00: 0.4350
2024-12-21 11:00: 0.4350
2024-12-21 14:00: 0.4300
2024-12-21 17:00: 0.3800
2024-12-21 20:00: 0.4200
2024-12-21 23:00: 0.4150
2024-12-22 02:00: 0.4200
2024-12-22 05:00: 0.4200
2024-12-22 08:00: 0.4050
2024-12-22 11:00: 0.4100
2024-12-22 14:00: 0.4100
2024-12-22 17:00: 0.4050
2024-12-22 20:00: 0.4050
2024-12-22 23:00: 0.3950
2024-12-23 02:00: 0.3950
2024-12-23 05:00: 0.3950
2024-12-23 08:00: 0.3850
2024-12-23 11:00: 0.3850
2024-12-23 14:00: 0.3900
2024-12-23 17:00: 0.3800
2024-12-23 20:00: 0.3800
2024-12-23 23:00: 0.3850
2024-12-24 02:00: 0.3850
2024-12-24 05:00: 0.3850
2024-12-24 08:00: 0.3850
2024-12-24 11:00: 0.3850
2024-12-24 14:00: 0.3800
Trade Summary: No trades available

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 515897
Question: Will the AfD win 15-20% of the vote in the German election?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 4533058.575216
Price History:
2024-12-25 01:00: 0.6250
2024-12-25 04:00: 0.6250
2024-12-25 07:00: 0.6250
2024-12-25 10:00: 0.6250
2024-12-25 13:00: 0.6250
2024-12-25 16:00: 0.6300
2024-12-25 19:00: 0.6350
2024-12-25 22:00: 0.6350
2024-12-26 01:00: 0.6350
2024-12-26 04:00: 0.6350
2024-12-26 07:00: 0.6250
2024-12-26 10:00: 0.6250
2024-12-26 13:00: 0.6300
2024-12-26 16:00: 0.6300
2024-12-26 19:00: 0.6350
2024-12-26 22:00: 0.6350
2024-12-27 01:00: 0.6350
2024-12-27 04:00: 0.6350
2024-12-27 07:00: 0.6350
2024-12-27 10:00: 0.6300
2024-12-27 13:00: 0.6350
2024-12-27 16:00: 0.6350
2024-12-27 19:00: 0.6350
2024-12-27 22:00: 0.6350
2024-12-28 01:00: 0.6350
2024-12-28 04:00: 0.6350
2024-12-28 07:00: 0.6350
2024-12-28 10:00: 0.6350
2024-12-28 13:00: 0.6450
2024-12-28 16:00: 0.6450
2024-12-28 19:00: 0.6450
2024-12-28 22:00: 0.6450
2024-12-29 01:00: 0.6450
2024-12-29 04:00: 0.6450
2024-12-29 07:00: 0.6450
2024-12-29 10:00: 0.6450
2024-12-29 13:00: 0.6450
2024-12-29 16:00: 0.6450
2024-12-29 19:00: 0.6450
2024-12-29 22:00: 0.6450
2024-12-30 01:00: 0.6450
2024-12-30 04:00: 0.6450
2024-12-30 07:00: 0.6450
2024-12-30 10:00: 0.6500
2024-12-30 13:00: 0.6450
2024-12-30 16:00: 0.6450
2024-12-30 19:00: 0.6450
2024-12-30 22:00: 0.6450
2024-12-31 01:00: 0.6550
2024-12-31 04:00: 0.6500
Trade Summary: No trades available

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 515897
Question: Will the AfD win 15-20% of the vote in the German election?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 4533058.575216
Price History:
2024-12-31 16:00: 0.3550
2024-12-31 19:00: 0.3550
2024-12-31 22:00: 0.3600
2025-01-01 01:00: 0.3550
2025-01-01 04:00: 0.3600
2025-01-01 07:00: 0.3550
2025-01-01 10:00: 0.3550
2025-01-01 13:00: 0.3600
2025-01-01 16:00: 0.3600
2025-01-01 19:00: 0.3550
2025-01-01 22:00: 0.3550
2025-01-02 01:00: 0.3550
2025-01-02 04:00: 0.3550
2025-01-02 07:00: 0.3550
2025-01-02 10:00: 0.3550
2025-01-02 13:00: 0.3550
2025-01-02 16:00: 0.3450
2025-01-02 19:00: 0.3450
2025-01-02 22:00: 0.3450
2025-01-03 01:00: 0.3450
2025-01-03 04:00: 0.3450
2025-01-03 07:00: 0.3450
2025-01-03 10:00: 0.3550
2025-01-03 13:00: 0.3750
2025-01-03 16:00: 0.3750
2025-01-03 19:00: 0.3700
2025-01-03 22:00: 0.3700
2025-01-04 01:00: 0.3650
2025-01-04 04:00: 0.3650
2025-01-04 07:00: 0.3750
2025-01-04 10:00: 0.3850
2025-01-04 13:00: 0.3850
2025-01-04 16:00: 0.3850
2025-01-04 19:00: 0.3850
2025-01-04 22:00: 0.3900
2025-01-05 01:00: 0.3950
2025-01-05 04:00: 0.3900
2025-01-05 07:00: 0.3800
2025-01-05 10:00: 0.3800
2025-01-05 13:00: 0.3850
2025-01-05 16:00: 0.3800
2025-01-05 19:00: 0.3800
2025-01-05 22:00: 0.3750
2025-01-06 01:00: 0.3800
2025-01-06 04:00: 0.3750
2025-01-06 07:00: 0.3850
2025-01-06 10:00: 0.3850
2025-01-06 13:00: 0.3950
2025-01-06 16:00: 0.3850
2025-01-06 19:00: 0.3750
Trade Summary: No trades available

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 515897
Question: Will the AfD win 15-20% of the vote in the German election?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 4533058.575216
Price History:
2025-01-07 06:00: 0.6450
2025-01-07 09:00: 0.6450
2025-01-07 12:00: 0.6450
2025-01-07 15:00: 0.6450
2025-01-07 18:00: 0.6450
2025-01-07 21:00: 0.6450
2025-01-08 00:00: 0.6450
2025-01-08 03:00: 0.6600
2025-01-08 06:00: 0.6650
2025-01-08 09:00: 0.6850
2025-01-08 12:00: 0.7000
2025-01-08 15:00: 0.6900
2025-01-08 18:00: 0.7300
2025-01-08 21:00: 0.7350
2025-01-09 00:00: 0.7400
2025-01-09 03:00: 0.7350
2025-01-09 06:00: 0.7250
2025-01-09 09:00: 0.7350
2025-01-09 12:00: 0.7350
2025-01-09 15:00: 0.7250
2025-01-09 18:00: 0.7200
2025-01-09 21:00: 0.7250
2025-01-10 00:00: 0.7250
2025-01-10 03:00: 0.7200
2025-01-10 06:00: 0.7400
2025-01-10 09:00: 0.7550
2025-01-10 12:00: 0.7450
2025-01-10 15:00: 0.7600
2025-01-10 18:00: 0.7350
2025-01-10 21:00: 0.7250
2025-01-11 00:00: 0.7300
2025-01-11 03:00: 0.7350
2025-01-11 06:00: 0.7450
2025-01-11 09:00: 0.7600
2025-01-11 12:00: 0.7950
2025-01-11 15:00: 0.8350
2025-01-11 18:00: 0.8050
2025-01-11 21:00: 0.8100
2025-01-12 00:00: 0.8100
2025-01-12 03:00: 0.8100
2025-01-12 06:00: 0.8050
2025-01-12 09:00: 0.8050
2025-01-12 12:00: 0.7950
2025-01-12 15:00: 0.7900
2025-01-12 18:00: 0.7950
2025-01-12 21:00: 0.7950
2025-01-13 00:00: 0.7950
2025-01-13 03:00: 0.7950
2025-01-13 06:00: 0.8150
2025-01-13 09:00: 0.8100
Trade Summary: No trades available

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 515897
Question: Will the AfD win 15-20% of the vote in the German election?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 4533058.575216
Price History:
2025-01-13 21:00: 0.1950
2025-01-14 00:00: 0.2050
2025-01-14 03:00: 0.2050
2025-01-14 06:00: 0.2000
2025-01-14 09:00: 0.2050
2025-01-14 12:00: 0.1950
2025-01-14 15:00: 0.1900
2025-01-14 18:00: 0.1900
2025-01-14 21:00: 0.1900
2025-01-15 00:00: 0.2050
2025-01-15 03:00: 0.2000
2025-01-15 06:00: 0.2150
2025-01-15 09:00: 0.2000
2025-01-15 12:00: 0.2100
2025-01-15 15:00: 0.1950
2025-01-15 18:00: 0.2150
2025-01-15 21:00: 0.2200
2025-01-16 00:00: 0.2100
2025-01-16 03:00: 0.2150
2025-01-16 06:00: 0.2300
2025-01-16 09:00: 0.2250
2025-01-16 12:00: 0.2200
2025-01-16 15:00: 0.2250
2025-01-16 18:00: 0.2450
2025-01-16 21:00: 0.2400
2025-01-17 00:00: 0.2450
2025-01-17 03:00: 0.2450
2025-01-17 06:00: 0.2400
2025-01-17 09:00: 0.2500
2025-01-17 12:00: 0.2450
2025-01-17 15:00: 0.2450
2025-01-17 18:00: 0.2450
2025-01-17 21:00: 0.2400
2025-01-18 00:00: 0.2450
2025-01-18 03:00: 0.2450
2025-01-18 06:00: 0.2650
2025-01-18 09:00: 0.2650
2025-01-18 12:00: 0.2550
2025-01-18 15:00: 0.2550
2025-01-18 18:00: 0.2500
2025-01-18 21:00: 0.2450
2025-01-19 00:00: 0.2450
2025-01-19 03:00: 0.2550
2025-01-19 06:00: 0.2550
2025-01-19 09:00: 0.2450
2025-01-19 12:00: 0.2450
2025-01-19 15:00: 0.2450
2025-01-19 18:00: 0.2650
2025-01-19 21:00: 0.2650
2025-01-20 00:00: 0.2650
Trade Summary: No trades available

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 515897
Question: Will the AfD win 15-20% of the vote in the German election?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 4533058.575216
Price History:
2025-01-20 11:00: 0.7550
2025-01-20 14:00: 0.7450
2025-01-20 17:00: 0.7300
2025-01-20 20:00: 0.7300
2025-01-20 23:00: 0.7200
2025-01-21 02:00: 0.7200
2025-01-21 05:00: 0.7200
2025-01-21 08:00: 0.6950
2025-01-21 11:00: 0.6600
2025-01-21 14:00: 0.6850
2025-01-21 17:00: 0.6750
2025-01-21 20:00: 0.6850
2025-01-21 23:00: 0.6900
2025-01-22 02:00: 0.6900
2025-01-22 05:00: 0.7000
2025-01-22 08:00: 0.7050
2025-01-22 11:00: 0.7150
2025-01-22 14:00: 0.7200
2025-01-22 17:00: 0.7200
2025-01-22 20:00: 0.7150
2025-01-22 23:00: 0.7200
2025-01-23 02:00: 0.7150
2025-01-23 05:00: 0.7100
2025-01-23 08:00: 0.7150
2025-01-23 11:00: 0.7050
2025-01-23 14:00: 0.7000
2025-01-23 17:00: 0.7050
2025-01-23 20:00: 0.6900
2025-01-23 23:00: 0.7000
2025-01-24 02:00: 0.6950
2025-01-24 05:00: 0.7150
2025-01-24 08:00: 0.7200
2025-01-24 11:00: 0.7150
2025-01-24 14:00: 0.7000
2025-01-24 17:00: 0.6950
2025-01-24 20:00: 0.6950
2025-01-24 23:00: 0.6950
2025-01-25 02:00: 0.6950
2025-01-25 05:00: 0.6950
2025-01-25 08:00: 0.6850
2025-01-25 11:00: 0.6950
2025-01-25 14:00: 0.7000
2025-01-25 17:00: 0.7000
2025-01-25 20:00: 0.7050
2025-01-25 23:00: 0.7050
2025-01-26 02:00: 0.7200
2025-01-26 05:00: 0.7150
2025-01-26 08:00: 0.7250
2025-01-26 11:00: 0.7250
2025-01-26 14:00: 0.7350
Trade Summary: No trades available

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 515897
Question: Will the AfD win 15-20% of the vote in the German election?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 4533058.575216
Price History:
2025-01-27 02:00: 0.2750
2025-01-27 05:00: 0.2750
2025-01-27 08:00: 0.2750
2025-01-27 11:00: 0.2750
2025-01-27 14:00: 0.2650
2025-01-27 17:00: 0.2600
2025-01-27 20:00: 0.2450
2025-01-27 23:00: 0.2500
2025-01-28 02:00: 0.2500
2025-01-28 05:00: 0.2450
2025-01-28 08:00: 0.2350
2025-01-28 11:00: 0.2450
2025-01-28 14:00: 0.2450
2025-01-28 17:00: 0.2600
2025-01-28 20:00: 0.2550
2025-01-28 23:00: 0.2550
2025-01-29 02:00: 0.2550
2025-01-29 05:00: 0.2200
2025-01-29 08:00: 0.2050
2025-01-29 11:00: 0.2050
2025-01-29 14:00: 0.2050
2025-01-29 17:00: 0.1950
2025-01-29 20:00: 0.2050
2025-01-29 23:00: 0.2050
2025-01-30 02:00: 0.2050
2025-01-30 05:00: 0.2150
2025-01-30 08:00: 0.2150
2025-01-30 11:00: 0.2150
2025-01-30 14:00: 0.2150
2025-01-30 17:00: 0.1950
2025-01-30 20:00: 0.1950
2025-01-30 23:00: 0.1950
2025-01-31 02:00: 0.1950
2025-01-31 05:00: 0.1950
2025-01-31 08:00: 0.1950
2025-01-31 11:00: 0.2000
2025-01-31 14:00: 0.1850
2025-01-31 17:00: 0.1750
2025-01-31 20:00: 0.1800
2025-01-31 23:00: 0.1750
2025-02-01 02:00: 0.1750
2025-02-01 05:00: 0.1700
2025-02-01 08:00: 0.1650
2025-02-01 11:00: 0.1650
2025-02-01 14:00: 0.1650
2025-02-01 17:00: 0.1650
2025-02-01 20:00: 0.1650
2025-02-01 23:00: 0.1750
2025-02-02 02:00: 0.1700
2025-02-02 05:00: 0.1700
Trade Summary: No trades available

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 515897
Question: Will the AfD win 15-20% of the vote in the German election?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 4533058.575216
Price History:
2025-02-02 16:00: 0.8400
2025-02-02 19:00: 0.8350
2025-02-02 22:00: 0.8300
2025-02-03 01:00: 0.8400
2025-02-03 04:00: 0.8350
2025-02-03 07:00: 0.8400
2025-02-03 10:00: 0.8450
2025-02-03 13:00: 0.8350
2025-02-03 16:00: 0.8050
2025-02-03 19:00: 0.8000
2025-02-03 22:00: 0.8000
2025-02-04 01:00: 0.8000
2025-02-04 04:00: 0.8000
2025-02-04 07:00: 0.8050
2025-02-04 10:00: 0.7950
2025-02-04 13:00: 0.7950
2025-02-04 16:00: 0.7950
2025-02-04 19:00: 0.7950
2025-02-04 22:00: 0.8000
2025-02-05 01:00: 0.8000
2025-02-05 04:00: 0.8050
2025-02-05 07:00: 0.8250
2025-02-05 10:00: 0.8100
2025-02-05 13:00: 0.8250
2025-02-05 16:00: 0.8450
2025-02-05 19:00: 0.8250
2025-02-05 22:00: 0.8250
2025-02-06 01:00: 0.8250
2025-02-06 04:00: 0.8250
2025-02-06 07:00: 0.8250
2025-02-06 10:00: 0.8250
2025-02-06 13:00: 0.8350
2025-02-06 16:00: 0.8100
2025-02-06 19:00: 0.8150
2025-02-06 22:00: 0.8250
2025-02-07 01:00: 0.8300
2025-02-07 04:00: 0.8150
2025-02-07 07:00: 0.8150
2025-02-07 10:00: 0.8150
2025-02-07 13:00: 0.8100
2025-02-07 16:00: 0.8050
2025-02-07 19:00: 0.8000
2025-02-07 22:00: 0.8000
2025-02-08 01:00: 0.8050
2025-02-08 04:00: 0.7850
2025-02-08 07:00: 0.7700
2025-02-08 10:00: 0.7800
2025-02-08 13:00: 0.7750
2025-02-08 16:00: 0.7850
2025-02-08 19:00: 0.7750
Trade Summary: No trades available

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 515897
Question: Will the AfD win 15-20% of the vote in the German election?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 4533058.575216
Price History:
2025-02-09 07:00: 0.2150
2025-02-09 10:00: 0.2150
2025-02-09 13:00: 0.2050
2025-02-09 16:00: 0.2050
2025-02-09 19:00: 0.2150
2025-02-09 22:00: 0.2150
2025-02-10 01:00: 0.2150
2025-02-10 04:00: 0.2150
2025-02-10 07:00: 0.2050
2025-02-10 10:00: 0.2050
2025-02-10 13:00: 0.2150
2025-02-10 16:00: 0.2150
2025-02-10 19:00: 0.2150
2025-02-10 22:00: 0.2050
2025-02-11 01:00: 0.2050
2025-02-11 04:00: 0.2000
2025-02-11 07:00: 0.1950
2025-02-11 10:00: 0.1950
2025-02-11 13:00: 0.1950
2025-02-11 16:00: 0.1950
2025-02-11 19:00: 0.1850
2025-02-11 22:00: 0.1850
2025-02-12 01:00: 0.1850
2025-02-12 04:00: 0.1850
2025-02-12 07:00: 0.1850
2025-02-12 10:00: 0.1900
2025-02-12 13:00: 0.1950
2025-02-12 16:00: 0.2000
2025-02-12 19:00: 0.2100
2025-02-12 22:00: 0.2150
2025-02-13 01:00: 0.2200
2025-02-13 04:00: 0.2250
2025-02-13 07:00: 0.1950
2025-02-13 10:00: 0.1750
2025-02-13 13:00: 0.1950
2025-02-13 16:00: 0.1900
2025-02-13 19:00: 0.1750
2025-02-13 22:00: 0.1850
2025-02-14 01:00: 0.1750
2025-02-14 04:00: 0.1750
2025-02-14 07:00: 0.1750
2025-02-14 10:00: 0.1850
2025-02-14 13:00: 0.1900
2025-02-14 16:00: 0.2050
2025-02-14 19:00: 0.2150
2025-02-14 22:00: 0.2150
2025-02-15 01:00: 0.2150
2025-02-15 04:00: 0.2200
2025-02-15 07:00: 0.2150
2025-02-15 10:00: 0.2100
Trade Summary: No trades available

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 515897
Question: Will the AfD win 15-20% of the vote in the German election?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 4533058.575216
Price History:
2025-02-15 21:00: 0.7850
2025-02-16 00:00: 0.7800
2025-02-16 03:00: 0.7850
2025-02-16 06:00: 0.7950
2025-02-16 09:00: 0.7950
2025-02-16 12:00: 0.8050
2025-02-16 15:00: 0.8050
2025-02-16 18:00: 0.8100
2025-02-16 21:00: 0.8050
2025-02-17 00:00: 0.8100
2025-02-17 03:00: 0.8150
2025-02-17 06:00: 0.8150
2025-02-17 09:00: 0.8100
2025-02-17 12:00: 0.8150
2025-02-17 15:00: 0.8100
2025-02-17 18:00: 0.8150
2025-02-17 21:00: 0.8100
2025-02-18 00:00: 0.8100
2025-02-18 03:00: 0.8050
2025-02-18 06:00: 0.8050
2025-02-18 09:00: 0.8000
2025-02-18 12:00: 0.7950
2025-02-18 15:00: 0.8100
2025-02-18 18:00: 0.8050
2025-02-18 21:00: 0.8050
2025-02-19 00:00: 0.8050
2025-02-19 03:00: 0.8000
2025-02-19 06:00: 0.8050
2025-02-19 09:00: 0.8150
2025-02-19 12:00: 0.8100
2025-02-19 15:00: 0.8150
2025-02-19 18:00: 0.8050
2025-02-19 21:00: 0.8100
2025-02-20 00:00: 0.8150
2025-02-20 03:00: 0.8050
2025-02-20 06:00: 0.8050
2025-02-20 09:00: 0.7850
2025-02-20 12:00: 0.7750
2025-02-20 15:00: 0.7550
2025-02-20 18:00: 0.7800
2025-02-20 21:00: 0.7900
2025-02-21 00:00: 0.7850
2025-02-21 03:00: 0.7750
2025-02-21 06:00: 0.7750
2025-02-21 09:00: 0.7850
2025-02-21 12:00: 0.7850
2025-02-21 15:00: 0.7650
2025-02-21 18:00: 0.7550
2025-02-21 21:00: 0.7400
2025-02-22 00:00: 0.7400
Trade Summary: No trades available

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 515897
Question: Will the AfD win 15-20% of the vote in the German election?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 4533058.575216
Price History:
2025-02-22 12:00: 0.2350
2025-02-22 15:00: 0.2300
2025-02-22 18:00: 0.2350
2025-02-22 21:00: 0.2250
2025-02-23 00:00: 0.2300
2025-02-23 03:00: 0.2250
2025-02-23 06:00: 0.2150
2025-02-23 09:00: 0.2100
2025-02-23 12:00: 0.1650
2025-02-23 15:00: 0.0750
2025-02-23 18:00: 0.0105
2025-02-23 21:00: 0.0015
2025-02-24 00:00: 0.0020
2025-02-24 03:00: 0.0005
2025-02-24 06:00: 0.0005
2025-02-24 09:00: 0.0005
2025-02-24 12:00: 0.0005
2025-02-24 15:00: 0.0005
2025-02-24 18:00: 0.0005
2025-02-24 21:00: 0.0005
2025-02-25 00:00: 0.0005
2025-02-25 03:00: 0.0005
2025-02-25 06:00: 0.0005
2025-02-25 09:00: 0.0005
2025-02-25 12:00: 0.0005
2025-02-25 15:00: 0.0015
2025-02-25 18:00: 0.0005
2025-02-25 21:00: 0.0005
2025-02-26 00:00: 0.0005
2025-02-26 03:00: 0.0005
2025-02-26 06:00: 0.0005
2025-02-26 09:00: 0.0005
2025-02-26 12:00: 0.0005
2025-02-26 15:00: 0.0005
2025-02-26 18:00: 0.0005
2025-02-26 21:00: 0.0005
2025-02-27 00:00: 0.0005
2025-02-27 03:00: 0.0005
2025-02-27 06:00: 0.0005
2025-02-27 09:00: 0.0005
2025-02-27 12:00: 0.0005
2025-02-27 15:00: 0.0005
2025-02-27 18:00: 0.0005
2025-02-27 21:00: 0.0005
2025-02-28 00:00: 0.0005
2025-02-28 03:00: 0.0005
2025-02-28 06:00: 0.0005
2025-02-28 09:00: 0.0005
2025-02-28 12:00: 0.0005
2025-02-28 15:00: 0.0005
Trade Summary: No trades available

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 515897
Question: Will the AfD win 15-20% of the vote in the German election?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 4533058.575216
Price History:
2025-03-01 02:00: 0.9995
2025-03-01 05:00: 0.9995
2025-03-01 08:00: 0.9995
2025-03-01 11:00: 0.9995
2025-03-01 14:00: 0.9995
2025-03-01 17:00: 0.9995
2025-03-01 20:00: 0.9995
2025-03-01 23:00: 0.9995
2025-03-02 02:00: 0.9995
2025-03-02 05:00: 0.9995
2025-03-02 08:00: 0.9995
2025-03-02 11:00: 0.9995
2025-03-02 14:00: 0.9995
2025-03-02 17:00: 0.9985
2025-03-02 20:00: 0.9990
2025-03-02 23:00: 0.9995
2025-03-03 02:00: 0.9995
2025-03-03 05:00: 0.9995
2025-03-03 08:00: 0.9995
2025-03-03 11:00: 0.9995
2025-03-03 14:00: 0.9995
2025-03-03 17:00: 0.9995
2025-03-03 20:00: 0.9995
2025-03-03 23:00: 0.9995
2025-03-04 02:00: 0.9995
2025-03-04 05:00: 0.9995
2025-03-04 08:00: 0.9995
2025-03-04 11:00: 0.9995
2025-03-04 14:00: 0.9995
2025-03-04 17:00: 0.9995
2025-03-04 20:00: 0.9995
2025-03-04 23:00: 0.9995
2025-03-05 02:00: 0.9995
2025-03-05 05:00: 0.9995
2025-03-05 08:00: 0.9995
2025-03-05 11:00: 0.9995
2025-03-05 14:00: 0.9995
2025-03-05 17:00: 0.9995
2025-03-05 20:00: 0.9995
2025-03-05 23:00: 0.9995
2025-03-06 02:00: 0.9995
2025-03-06 05:00: 0.9995
2025-03-06 08:00: 0.9995
2025-03-06 11:00: 0.9995
2025-03-06 14:00: 0.9995
2025-03-06 17:00: 0.9995
2025-03-06 20:00: 0.9995
2025-03-06 23:00: 0.9995
2025-03-07 02:00: 0.9995
2025-03-07 05:00: 0.9995
Trade Summary: No trades available

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 515897
Question: Will the AfD win 15-20% of the vote in the German election?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 4533058.575216
Price History:
2025-03-07 17:00: 0.0005
2025-03-07 20:00: 0.0005
2025-03-07 23:00: 0.0005
2025-03-08 02:00: 0.0005
2025-03-08 05:00: 0.0005
2025-03-08 08:00: 0.0005
2025-03-08 11:00: 0.0005
2025-03-08 14:00: 0.0005
2025-03-08 17:00: 0.0005
2025-03-08 20:00: 0.0005
2025-03-08 23:00: 0.0005
2025-03-09 03:00: 0.0005
2025-03-09 06:00: 0.0005
2025-03-09 09:00: 0.0005
2025-03-09 12:00: 0.0005
2025-03-09 15:00: 0.0005
2025-03-09 18:00: 0.0005
2025-03-09 21:00: 0.0005
2025-03-10 00:00: 0.0005
2025-03-10 03:00: 0.0005
2025-03-10 06:00: 0.0005
2025-03-10 09:00: 0.0005
2025-03-10 12:00: 0.0005
2025-03-10 15:00: 0.0005
2025-03-10 18:00: 0.0005
2025-03-10 21:00: 0.0005
2025-03-11 00:00: 0.0005
2025-03-11 03:00: 0.0005
2025-03-11 06:00: 0.0005
2025-03-11 09:00: 0.0005
2025-03-11 12:00: 0.0005
2025-03-11 15:00: 0.0005
2025-03-11 18:00: 0.0005
2025-03-11 21:00: 0.0005
2025-03-12 00:00: 0.0005
2025-03-12 03:00: 0.0005
2025-03-12 06:00: 0.0005
2025-03-12 09:00: 0.0005
2025-03-12 12:00: 0.0005
2025-03-12 15:00: 0.0005
2025-03-12 18:00: 0.0005
2025-03-12 21:00: 0.0005
2025-03-13 00:00: 0.0005
2025-03-13 03:00: 0.0005
2025-03-13 06:00: 0.0005
2025-03-13 09:00: 0.0005
2025-03-13 12:00: 0.0005
2025-03-13 15:00: 0.0005
2025-03-13 18:00: 0.0005
2025-03-13 21:00: 0.0005
Trade Summary: No trades available

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 515897
Question: Will the AfD win 15-20% of the vote in the German election?
Volume: 4533058.575216
Price History:
2024-12-18 11:00: 0.5300
2024-12-18 16:00: 0.4750
2024-12-18 21:00: 0.5000
2024-12-19 02:00: 0.5000
2024-12-19 07:00: 0.5050
2024-12-19 12:00: 0.4950
2024-12-19 17:00: 0.5200
2024-12-19 22:00: 0.5200
2024-12-20 03:00: 0.5200
2024-12-20 08:00: 0.5150
2024-12-20 13:00: 0.5200
2024-12-20 18:00: 0.4850
2024-12-20 23:00: 0.4750
2024-12-21 04:00: 0.4350
2024-12-21 09:00: 0.4350
2024-12-21 14:00: 0.4300
2024-12-21 19:00: 0.4150
2024-12-22 00:00: 0.4200
2024-12-22 05:00: 0.4200
2024-12-22 10:00: 0.4150
2024-12-22 15:00: 0.4050
2024-12-22 20:00: 0.4050
2024-12-23 01:00: 0.3950
2024-12-23 06:00: 0.3950
2024-12-23 11:00: 0.3850
2024-12-23 16:00: 0.3800
2024-12-23 21:00: 0.3800
2024-12-24 02:00: 0.3850
2024-12-24 07:00: 0.3850
2024-12-24 12:00: 0.3850
Trade Summary: No trades available
Manipulation Indicators Detected: None

Output: No


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 515897
Question: Will the AfD win 15-20% of the vote in the German election?
Volume: 4533058.575216
Price History:
2024-12-25 01:00: 0.6250
2024-12-25 06:00: 0.6250
2024-12-25 11:00: 0.6250
2024-12-25 16:00: 0.6300
2024-12-25 21:00: 0.6350
2024-12-26 02:00: 0.6350
2024-12-26 07:00: 0.6250
2024-12-26 12:00: 0.6300
2024-12-26 17:00: 0.6300
2024-12-26 22:00: 0.6350
2024-12-27 03:00: 0.6350
2024-12-27 08:00: 0.6350
2024-12-27 13:00: 0.6350
2024-12-27 18:00: 0.6350
2024-12-27 23:00: 0.6350
2024-12-28 04:00: 0.6350
2024-12-28 09:00: 0.6350
2024-12-28 14:00: 0.6450
2024-12-28 19:00: 0.6450
2024-12-29 00:00: 0.6450
2024-12-29 05:00: 0.6450
2024-12-29 10:00: 0.6450
2024-12-29 15:00: 0.6450
2024-12-29 20:00: 0.6450
2024-12-30 01:00: 0.6450
2024-12-30 06:00: 0.6450
2024-12-30 11:00: 0.6550
2024-12-30 16:00: 0.6450
2024-12-30 21:00: 0.6550
2024-12-31 02:00: 0.6550
Trade Summary: No trades available
Manipulation Indicators Detected: None

Output: No


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 515897
Question: Will the AfD win 15-20% of the vote in the German election?
Volume: 4533058.575216
Price History:
2024-12-31 16:00: 0.3550
2024-12-31 21:00: 0.3550
2025-01-01 02:00: 0.3550
2025-01-01 07:00: 0.3550
2025-01-01 12:00: 0.3600
2025-01-01 17:00: 0.3600
2025-01-01 22:00: 0.3550
2025-01-02 03:00: 0.3550
2025-01-02 08:00: 0.3550
2025-01-02 13:00: 0.3550
2025-01-02 18:00: 0.3450
2025-01-02 23:00: 0.3450
2025-01-03 04:00: 0.3450
2025-01-03 09:00: 0.3550
2025-01-03 14:00: 0.3750
2025-01-03 19:00: 0.3700
2025-01-04 00:00: 0.3700
2025-01-04 05:00: 0.3750
2025-01-04 10:00: 0.3850
2025-01-04 15:00: 0.3850
2025-01-04 20:00: 0.3850
2025-01-05 01:00: 0.3950
2025-01-05 06:00: 0.3850
2025-01-05 11:00: 0.3750
2025-01-05 16:00: 0.3800
2025-01-05 21:00: 0.3800
2025-01-06 02:00: 0.3800
2025-01-06 07:00: 0.3850
2025-01-06 12:00: 0.3850
2025-01-06 17:00: 0.3850
Trade Summary: No trades available
Manipulation Indicators Detected: None

Output: No


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 515897
Question: Will the AfD win 15-20% of the vote in the German election?
Volume: 4533058.575216
Price History:
2025-01-07 06:00: 0.6450
2025-01-07 11:00: 0.6400
2025-01-07 16:00: 0.6450
2025-01-07 21:00: 0.6450
2025-01-08 02:00: 0.6500
2025-01-08 07:00: 0.6750
2025-01-08 12:00: 0.7000
2025-01-08 17:00: 0.7300
2025-01-08 22:00: 0.7400
2025-01-09 03:00: 0.7350
2025-01-09 08:00: 0.7250
2025-01-09 13:00: 0.7350
2025-01-09 18:00: 0.7200
2025-01-09 23:00: 0.7250
2025-01-10 04:00: 0.7250
2025-01-10 09:00: 0.7550
2025-01-10 14:00: 0.7650
2025-01-10 19:00: 0.7250
2025-01-11 00:00: 0.7300
2025-01-11 05:00: 0.7450
2025-01-11 10:00: 0.7600
2025-01-11 15:00: 0.8350
2025-01-11 20:00: 0.8150
2025-01-12 01:00: 0.8150
2025-01-12 06:00: 0.8050
2025-01-12 11:00: 0.8000
2025-01-12 16:00: 0.7850
2025-01-12 21:00: 0.7950
2025-01-13 02:00: 0.8000
2025-01-13 07:00: 0.8050
Trade Summary: No trades available
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 515897
Question: Will the AfD win 15-20% of the vote in the German election?
Volume: 4533058.575216
Price History:
2025-01-13 21:00: 0.1950
2025-01-14 02:00: 0.2050
2025-01-14 07:00: 0.2000
2025-01-14 12:00: 0.1950
2025-01-14 17:00: 0.1850
2025-01-14 22:00: 0.1950
2025-01-15 03:00: 0.2000
2025-01-15 08:00: 0.2000
2025-01-15 13:00: 0.2150
2025-01-15 18:00: 0.2150
2025-01-15 23:00: 0.2100
2025-01-16 04:00: 0.2300
2025-01-16 09:00: 0.2250
2025-01-16 14:00: 0.2200
2025-01-16 19:00: 0.2450
2025-01-17 00:00: 0.2450
2025-01-17 05:00: 0.2450
2025-01-17 10:00: 0.2450
2025-01-17 15:00: 0.2450
2025-01-17 20:00: 0.2500
2025-01-18 01:00: 0.2450
2025-01-18 06:00: 0.2650
2025-01-18 11:00: 0.2550
2025-01-18 16:00: 0.2550
2025-01-18 21:00: 0.2450
2025-01-19 02:00: 0.2550
2025-01-19 07:00: 0.2450
2025-01-19 12:00: 0.2450
2025-01-19 17:00: 0.2650
2025-01-19 22:00: 0.2650
Trade Summary: No trades available
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 515897
Question: Will the AfD win 15-20% of the vote in the German election?
Volume: 4533058.575216
Price History:
2025-01-20 11:00: 0.7550
2025-01-20 16:00: 0.7350
2025-01-20 21:00: 0.7200
2025-01-21 02:00: 0.7200
2025-01-21 07:00: 0.6950
2025-01-21 12:00: 0.6700
2025-01-21 17:00: 0.6750
2025-01-21 22:00: 0.6900
2025-01-22 03:00: 0.6950
2025-01-22 08:00: 0.7050
2025-01-22 13:00: 0.7150
2025-01-22 18:00: 0.7200
2025-01-22 23:00: 0.7200
2025-01-23 04:00: 0.7050
2025-01-23 09:00: 0.7200
2025-01-23 14:00: 0.7000
2025-01-23 19:00: 0.6950
2025-01-24 00:00: 0.7000
2025-01-24 05:00: 0.7150
2025-01-24 10:00: 0.7150
2025-01-24 15:00: 0.7000
2025-01-24 20:00: 0.6950
2025-01-25 01:00: 0.6950
2025-01-25 06:00: 0.6850
2025-01-25 11:00: 0.6950
2025-01-25 16:00: 0.7000
2025-01-25 21:00: 0.7050
2025-01-26 02:00: 0.7200
2025-01-26 07:00: 0.7250
2025-01-26 12:00: 0.7250
Trade Summary: No trades available
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility

Output: No


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 515897
Question: Will the AfD win 15-20% of the vote in the German election?
Volume: 4533058.575216
Price History:
2025-01-27 02:00: 0.2750
2025-01-27 07:00: 0.2750
2025-01-27 12:00: 0.2700
2025-01-27 17:00: 0.2600
2025-01-27 22:00: 0.2450
2025-01-28 03:00: 0.2500
2025-01-28 08:00: 0.2350
2025-01-28 13:00: 0.2450
2025-01-28 18:00: 0.2600
2025-01-28 23:00: 0.2550
2025-01-29 04:00: 0.2150
2025-01-29 09:00: 0.2050
2025-01-29 14:00: 0.2050
2025-01-29 19:00: 0.1950
2025-01-30 00:00: 0.2100
2025-01-30 05:00: 0.2150
2025-01-30 10:00: 0.2150
2025-01-30 15:00: 0.2150
2025-01-30 20:00: 0.1950
2025-01-31 01:00: 0.1950
2025-01-31 06:00: 0.1950
2025-01-31 11:00: 0.2000
2025-01-31 16:00: 0.1800
2025-01-31 21:00: 0.1800
2025-02-01 02:00: 0.1750
2025-02-01 07:00: 0.1650
2025-02-01 12:00: 0.1650
2025-02-01 17:00: 0.1650
2025-02-01 22:00: 0.1750
2025-02-02 03:00: 0.1700
Trade Summary: No trades available
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 515897
Question: Will the AfD win 15-20% of the vote in the German election?
Volume: 4533058.575216
Price History:
2025-02-02 16:00: 0.8400
2025-02-02 21:00: 0.8350
2025-02-03 02:00: 0.8350
2025-02-03 07:00: 0.8400
2025-02-03 12:00: 0.8350
2025-02-03 17:00: 0.8050
2025-02-03 22:00: 0.8000
2025-02-04 03:00: 0.8050
2025-02-04 08:00: 0.7950
2025-02-04 13:00: 0.7950
2025-02-04 18:00: 0.7900
2025-02-04 23:00: 0.8000
2025-02-05 04:00: 0.8050
2025-02-05 09:00: 0.8100
2025-02-05 14:00: 0.8250
2025-02-05 19:00: 0.8250
2025-02-06 00:00: 0.8200
2025-02-06 05:00: 0.8250
2025-02-06 10:00: 0.8250
2025-02-06 15:00: 0.8300
2025-02-06 20:00: 0.8350
2025-02-07 01:00: 0.8300
2025-02-07 06:00: 0.8150
2025-02-07 11:00: 0.8150
2025-02-07 16:00: 0.8050
2025-02-07 21:00: 0.8000
2025-02-08 02:00: 0.8000
2025-02-08 07:00: 0.7700
2025-02-08 12:00: 0.7750
2025-02-08 17:00: 0.7750
Trade Summary: No trades available
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 515897
Question: Will the AfD win 15-20% of the vote in the German election?
Volume: 4533058.575216
Price History:
2025-02-09 07:00: 0.2150
2025-02-09 12:00: 0.2050
2025-02-09 17:00: 0.2250
2025-02-09 22:00: 0.2150
2025-02-10 03:00: 0.2200
2025-02-10 08:00: 0.2150
2025-02-10 13:00: 0.2150
2025-02-10 18:00: 0.2150
2025-02-10 23:00: 0.2050
2025-02-11 04:00: 0.2000
2025-02-11 09:00: 0.1950
2025-02-11 14:00: 0.1950
2025-02-11 19:00: 0.1850
2025-02-12 00:00: 0.1850
2025-02-12 05:00: 0.1850
2025-02-12 10:00: 0.1900
2025-02-12 15:00: 0.1950
2025-02-12 20:00: 0.2150
2025-02-13 01:00: 0.2200
2025-02-13 06:00: 0.2250
2025-02-13 11:00: 0.1850
2025-02-13 16:00: 0.1900
2025-02-13 21:00: 0.1850
2025-02-14 02:00: 0.1750
2025-02-14 07:00: 0.1750
2025-02-14 12:00: 0.1850
2025-02-14 17:00: 0.2000
2025-02-14 22:00: 0.2150
2025-02-15 03:00: 0.2250
2025-02-15 08:00: 0.2050
Trade Summary: No trades available
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 515897
Question: Will the AfD win 15-20% of the vote in the German election?
Volume: 4533058.575216
Price History:
2025-02-15 21:00: 0.7850
2025-02-16 02:00: 0.7850
2025-02-16 07:00: 0.7950
2025-02-16 12:00: 0.8050
2025-02-16 17:00: 0.8050
2025-02-16 22:00: 0.8100
2025-02-17 03:00: 0.8150
2025-02-17 08:00: 0.8050
2025-02-17 13:00: 0.8100
2025-02-17 18:00: 0.8150
2025-02-17 23:00: 0.8100
2025-02-18 04:00: 0.8150
2025-02-18 09:00: 0.8000
2025-02-18 14:00: 0.8050
2025-02-18 19:00: 0.8050
2025-02-19 00:00: 0.8050
2025-02-19 05:00: 0.8050
2025-02-19 10:00: 0.8050
2025-02-19 15:00: 0.8150
2025-02-19 20:00: 0.8050
2025-02-20 01:00: 0.8150
2025-02-20 06:00: 0.8050
2025-02-20 11:00: 0.7950
2025-02-20 16:00: 0.7650
2025-02-20 21:00: 0.7900
2025-02-21 02:00: 0.7750
2025-02-21 07:00: 0.7750
2025-02-21 12:00: 0.7850
2025-02-21 17:00: 0.7600
2025-02-21 22:00: 0.7450
Trade Summary: No trades available
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 515897
Question: Will the AfD win 15-20% of the vote in the German election?
Volume: 4533058.575216
Price History:
2025-02-22 12:00: 0.2350
2025-02-22 17:00: 0.2350
2025-02-22 22:00: 0.2350
2025-02-23 03:00: 0.2250
2025-02-23 08:00: 0.1950
2025-02-23 13:00: 0.3550
2025-02-23 18:00: 0.0105
2025-02-23 23:00: 0.0015
2025-02-24 04:00: 0.0005
2025-02-24 09:00: 0.0005
2025-02-24 14:00: 0.0005
2025-02-24 19:00: 0.0005
2025-02-25 00:00: 0.0005
2025-02-25 05:00: 0.0005
2025-02-25 10:00: 0.0005
2025-02-25 15:00: 0.0015
2025-02-25 20:00: 0.0005
2025-02-26 01:00: 0.0005
2025-02-26 06:00: 0.0005
2025-02-26 11:00: 0.0005
2025-02-26 16:00: 0.0005
2025-02-26 21:00: 0.0005
2025-02-27 02:00: 0.0005
2025-02-27 07:00: 0.0005
2025-02-27 12:00: 0.0005
2025-02-27 17:00: 0.0005
2025-02-27 22:00: 0.0005
2025-02-28 03:00: 0.0005
2025-02-28 08:00: 0.0005
2025-02-28 13:00: 0.0005
Trade Summary: No trades available
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 515897
Question: Will the AfD win 15-20% of the vote in the German election?
Volume: 4533058.575216
Price History:
2025-03-01 02:00: 0.9995
2025-03-01 07:00: 0.9995
2025-03-01 12:00: 0.9995
2025-03-01 17:00: 0.9995
2025-03-01 22:00: 0.9995
2025-03-02 03:00: 0.9995
2025-03-02 08:00: 0.9995
2025-03-02 13:00: 0.9990
2025-03-02 18:00: 0.9985
2025-03-02 23:00: 0.9995
2025-03-03 04:00: 0.9995
2025-03-03 09:00: 0.9995
2025-03-03 14:00: 0.9995
2025-03-03 19:00: 0.9995
2025-03-04 00:00: 0.9995
2025-03-04 05:00: 0.9995
2025-03-04 10:00: 0.9995
2025-03-04 15:00: 0.9995
2025-03-04 20:00: 0.9995
2025-03-05 01:00: 0.9995
2025-03-05 06:00: 0.9995
2025-03-05 11:00: 0.9995
2025-03-05 16:00: 0.9995
2025-03-05 21:00: 0.9995
2025-03-06 02:00: 0.9995
2025-03-06 07:00: 0.9995
2025-03-06 12:00: 0.9995
2025-03-06 17:00: 0.9995
2025-03-06 22:00: 0.9995
2025-03-07 03:00: 0.9995
Trade Summary: No trades available
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 515897
Question: Will the AfD win 15-20% of the vote in the German election?
Volume: 4533058.575216
Price History:
2025-03-07 17:00: 0.0005
2025-03-07 22:00: 0.0005
2025-03-08 03:00: 0.0005
2025-03-08 08:00: 0.0005
2025-03-08 13:00: 0.0005
2025-03-08 18:00: 0.0005
2025-03-08 23:00: 0.0005
2025-03-09 05:00: 0.0005
2025-03-09 10:00: 0.0005
2025-03-09 15:00: 0.0005
2025-03-09 20:00: 0.0005
2025-03-10 01:00: 0.0005
2025-03-10 06:00: 0.0005
2025-03-10 11:00: 0.0005
2025-03-10 16:00: 0.0005
2025-03-10 21:00: 0.0005
2025-03-11 02:00: 0.0005
2025-03-11 07:00: 0.0005
2025-03-11 12:00: 0.0005
2025-03-11 17:00: 0.0005
2025-03-11 22:00: 0.0005
2025-03-12 03:00: 0.0005
2025-03-12 08:00: 0.0005
2025-03-12 13:00: 0.0005
2025-03-12 18:00: 0.0005
2025-03-12 23:00: 0.0005
2025-03-13 04:00: 0.0005
2025-03-13 09:00: 0.0005
2025-03-13 14:00: 0.0005
2025-03-13 19:00: 0.0005
Trade Summary: No trades available
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 518099
Question: Will 54 Senators vote to confirm RFK as Secretary of HHS?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 65410.143789
Price History:
2025-01-10 15:00: 0.1600
2025-01-10 16:00: 0.1450
2025-01-10 17:00: 0.1450
2025-01-10 18:00: 0.1450
2025-01-10 19:00: 0.1450
2025-01-10 20:00: 0.1450
2025-01-10 21:00: 0.1450
2025-01-10 22:00: 0.1450
2025-01-10 23:00: 0.1450
2025-01-11 00:00: 0.1450
2025-01-11 01:00: 0.1450
2025-01-11 02:00: 0.1450
2025-01-11 03:00: 0.1450
2025-01-11 04:00: 0.1200
2025-01-11 05:00: 0.1200
2025-01-11 06:00: 0.1100
2025-01-11 07:00: 0.1100
2025-01-11 08:00: 0.1100
2025-01-11 09:00: 0.1100
2025-01-11 10:00: 0.1100
2025-01-11 11:00: 0.1100
2025-01-11 12:00: 0.1100
2025-01-11 13:00: 0.1100
2025-01-11 14:00: 0.1100
2025-01-11 15:00: 0.1100
2025-01-11 16:00: 0.1100
2025-01-11 17:00: 0.1100
2025-01-11 18:00: 0.1100
2025-01-11 19:00: 0.1100
2025-01-11 20:00: 0.1100
2025-01-11 21:00: 0.1100
2025-01-11 22:00: 0.1100
2025-01-11 23:00: 0.1100
2025-01-12 00:00: 0.1100
2025-01-12 01:00: 0.1100
2025-01-12 02:00: 0.1100
2025-01-12 03:00: 0.1100
2025-01-12 04:00: 0.1100
2025-01-12 05:00: 0.1100
2025-01-12 06:00: 0.1100
2025-01-12 07:00: 0.1100
2025-01-12 08:00: 0.1100
2025-01-12 09:00: 0.0950
2025-01-12 10:00: 0.0950
2025-01-12 11:00: 0.0950
2025-01-12 12:00: 0.0950
2025-01-12 13:00: 0.1050
2025-01-12 14:00: 0.1050
2025-01-12 15:00: 0.1050
2025-01-12 16:00: 0.1050
Trade Summary: Total trades: 9, Buy volume: 170.00, Sell volume: 0.00, Average price: 0.9100, Price range: 0.9100 - 0.9100

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 518099
Question: Will 54 Senators vote to confirm RFK as Secretary of HHS?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 65410.143789
Price History:
2025-01-13 05:00: 0.8950
2025-01-13 06:00: 0.8950
2025-01-13 07:00: 0.8950
2025-01-13 08:00: 0.8950
2025-01-13 09:00: 0.8950
2025-01-13 10:00: 0.9000
2025-01-13 11:00: 0.9000
2025-01-13 12:00: 0.9000
2025-01-13 13:00: 0.9000
2025-01-13 14:00: 0.9000
2025-01-13 15:00: 0.9000
2025-01-13 16:00: 0.9000
2025-01-13 17:00: 0.9000
2025-01-13 18:00: 0.9000
2025-01-13 19:00: 0.9000
2025-01-13 20:00: 0.9000
2025-01-13 21:00: 0.9000
2025-01-13 22:00: 0.9000
2025-01-13 23:00: 0.9000
2025-01-14 00:00: 0.9000
2025-01-14 01:00: 0.9000
2025-01-14 02:00: 0.9000
2025-01-14 03:00: 0.9000
2025-01-14 04:00: 0.9000
2025-01-14 05:00: 0.9000
2025-01-14 06:00: 0.9000
2025-01-14 07:00: 0.9000
2025-01-14 08:00: 0.9000
2025-01-14 09:00: 0.9000
2025-01-14 10:00: 0.9000
2025-01-14 11:00: 0.9000
2025-01-14 12:00: 0.9000
2025-01-14 13:00: 0.9000
2025-01-14 14:00: 0.9000
2025-01-14 15:00: 0.9000
2025-01-14 16:00: 0.9000
2025-01-14 17:00: 0.9000
2025-01-14 18:00: 0.9000
2025-01-14 19:00: 0.9000
2025-01-14 20:00: 0.9000
2025-01-14 21:00: 0.9000
2025-01-14 22:00: 0.9000
2025-01-14 23:00: 0.9000
2025-01-15 00:00: 0.9000
2025-01-15 01:00: 0.9000
2025-01-15 02:00: 0.9000
2025-01-15 03:00: 0.9000
2025-01-15 04:00: 0.9000
2025-01-15 05:00: 0.9000
2025-01-15 06:00: 0.9000
Trade Summary: Total trades: 1, Buy volume: 30.00, Sell volume: 0.00, Average price: 0.9100, Price range: 0.9100 - 0.9100

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 518099
Question: Will 54 Senators vote to confirm RFK as Secretary of HHS?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 65410.143789
Price History:
2025-01-15 20:00: 0.0950
2025-01-15 21:00: 0.0950
2025-01-15 22:00: 0.0950
2025-01-15 23:00: 0.0950
2025-01-16 00:00: 0.0950
2025-01-16 01:00: 0.0950
2025-01-16 02:00: 0.0950
2025-01-16 03:00: 0.0950
2025-01-16 04:00: 0.0950
2025-01-16 05:00: 0.0950
2025-01-16 06:00: 0.0950
2025-01-16 07:00: 0.0950
2025-01-16 08:00: 0.0950
2025-01-16 09:00: 0.0950
2025-01-16 10:00: 0.0950
2025-01-16 11:00: 0.0950
2025-01-16 12:00: 0.0950
2025-01-16 13:00: 0.0950
2025-01-16 14:00: 0.0950
2025-01-16 15:00: 0.0950
2025-01-16 16:00: 0.0950
2025-01-16 17:00: 0.0950
2025-01-16 18:00: 0.0950
2025-01-16 19:00: 0.0950
2025-01-16 20:00: 0.0950
2025-01-16 21:00: 0.0950
2025-01-16 22:00: 0.0950
2025-01-16 23:00: 0.0950
2025-01-17 00:00: 0.0950
2025-01-17 01:00: 0.0950
2025-01-17 02:00: 0.0950
2025-01-17 03:00: 0.0950
2025-01-17 04:00: 0.0950
2025-01-17 05:00: 0.0950
2025-01-17 06:00: 0.0950
2025-01-17 07:00: 0.0950
2025-01-17 08:00: 0.0950
2025-01-17 09:00: 0.0950
2025-01-17 10:00: 0.0950
2025-01-17 11:00: 0.0950
2025-01-17 12:00: 0.0950
2025-01-17 13:00: 0.0950
2025-01-17 14:00: 0.0950
2025-01-17 15:00: 0.0950
2025-01-17 16:00: 0.0950
2025-01-17 17:00: 0.0950
2025-01-17 18:00: 0.0950
2025-01-17 19:00: 0.0950
2025-01-17 20:00: 0.0950
2025-01-17 21:00: 0.0950
Trade Summary: Total trades: 8, Buy volume: 632.38, Sell volume: 7.62, Average price: 0.7063, Price range: 0.0900 - 0.9100

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 518099
Question: Will 54 Senators vote to confirm RFK as Secretary of HHS?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 65410.143789
Price History:
2025-01-18 10:00: 0.9050
2025-01-18 11:00: 0.9050
2025-01-18 12:00: 0.9050
2025-01-18 13:00: 0.9050
2025-01-18 14:00: 0.9000
2025-01-18 15:00: 0.9000
2025-01-18 16:00: 0.9000
2025-01-18 17:00: 0.9000
2025-01-18 18:00: 0.9000
2025-01-18 19:00: 0.9000
2025-01-18 20:00: 0.9000
2025-01-18 21:00: 0.9000
2025-01-18 22:00: 0.9000
2025-01-18 23:00: 0.9000
2025-01-19 00:00: 0.9000
2025-01-19 01:00: 0.9000
2025-01-19 02:00: 0.9050
2025-01-19 03:00: 0.9050
2025-01-19 04:00: 0.9050
2025-01-19 05:00: 0.9050
2025-01-19 06:00: 0.9050
2025-01-19 07:00: 0.9050
2025-01-19 08:00: 0.9050
2025-01-19 09:00: 0.9050
2025-01-19 10:00: 0.9050
2025-01-19 11:00: 0.9050
2025-01-19 12:00: 0.9050
2025-01-19 13:00: 0.9050
2025-01-19 14:00: 0.9050
2025-01-19 15:00: 0.9050
2025-01-19 16:00: 0.9050
2025-01-19 17:00: 0.9050
2025-01-19 18:00: 0.9050
2025-01-19 19:00: 0.9050
2025-01-19 20:00: 0.9050
2025-01-19 21:00: 0.9050
2025-01-19 22:00: 0.9050
2025-01-19 23:00: 0.9050
2025-01-20 00:00: 0.9050
2025-01-20 01:00: 0.9050
2025-01-20 02:00: 0.9050
2025-01-20 03:00: 0.9050
2025-01-20 04:00: 0.9050
2025-01-20 05:00: 0.9050
2025-01-20 06:00: 0.9000
2025-01-20 07:00: 0.9000
2025-01-20 08:00: 0.9000
2025-01-20 09:00: 0.9000
2025-01-20 10:00: 0.9000
2025-01-20 11:00: 0.9000
Trade Summary: Total trades: 7, Buy volume: 157.00, Sell volume: 49.66, Average price: 0.5586, Price range: 0.0900 - 0.9100

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 518099
Question: Will 54 Senators vote to confirm RFK as Secretary of HHS?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 65410.143789
Price History:
2025-01-21 01:00: 0.1000
2025-01-21 02:00: 0.1000
2025-01-21 03:00: 0.1000
2025-01-21 04:00: 0.1000
2025-01-21 05:00: 0.1000
2025-01-21 06:00: 0.0950
2025-01-21 07:00: 0.0950
2025-01-21 08:00: 0.0950
2025-01-21 09:00: 0.0950
2025-01-21 10:00: 0.0950
2025-01-21 11:00: 0.0950
2025-01-21 12:00: 0.0950
2025-01-21 13:00: 0.0950
2025-01-21 14:00: 0.0950
2025-01-21 15:00: 0.0950
2025-01-21 16:00: 0.0950
2025-01-21 17:00: 0.1000
2025-01-21 18:00: 0.1000
2025-01-21 19:00: 0.1000
2025-01-21 20:00: 0.1050
2025-01-21 21:00: 0.1000
2025-01-21 22:00: 0.0700
2025-01-21 23:00: 0.1750
2025-01-22 00:00: 0.1250
2025-01-22 01:00: 0.1100
2025-01-22 02:00: 0.0850
2025-01-22 03:00: 0.0750
2025-01-22 04:00: 0.0800
2025-01-22 05:00: 0.0850
2025-01-22 06:00: 0.2050
2025-01-22 07:00: 0.2050
2025-01-22 08:00: 0.1900
2025-01-22 09:00: 0.1800
2025-01-22 10:00: 0.1550
2025-01-22 11:00: 0.1700
2025-01-22 12:00: 0.1500
2025-01-22 13:00: 0.1500
2025-01-22 14:00: 0.1250
2025-01-22 15:00: 0.1150
2025-01-22 16:00: 0.1200
2025-01-22 17:00: 0.1200
2025-01-22 18:00: 0.1200
2025-01-22 19:00: 0.1150
2025-01-22 20:00: 0.1200
2025-01-22 21:00: 0.1200
2025-01-22 22:00: 0.1200
2025-01-22 23:00: 0.1200
2025-01-23 00:00: 0.1000
2025-01-23 01:00: 0.1050
2025-01-23 02:00: 0.1050
Trade Summary: Total trades: 50, Buy volume: 1997.18, Sell volume: 147.26, Average price: 0.5696, Price range: 0.0843 - 0.9300

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 518099
Question: Will 54 Senators vote to confirm RFK as Secretary of HHS?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 65410.143789
Price History:
2025-01-23 15:00: 0.9050
2025-01-23 16:00: 0.9050
2025-01-23 17:00: 0.9050
2025-01-23 18:00: 0.9050
2025-01-23 19:00: 0.9050
2025-01-23 20:00: 0.9050
2025-01-23 21:00: 0.9150
2025-01-23 22:00: 0.9100
2025-01-23 23:00: 0.9100
2025-01-24 00:00: 0.9100
2025-01-24 01:00: 0.9150
2025-01-24 02:00: 0.9150
2025-01-24 03:00: 0.9150
2025-01-24 04:00: 0.9150
2025-01-24 05:00: 0.9150
2025-01-24 06:00: 0.9150
2025-01-24 07:00: 0.9150
2025-01-24 08:00: 0.9150
2025-01-24 09:00: 0.9150
2025-01-24 10:00: 0.9150
2025-01-24 11:00: 0.9150
2025-01-24 12:00: 0.9150
2025-01-24 13:00: 0.9150
2025-01-24 14:00: 0.9150
2025-01-24 15:00: 0.9100
2025-01-24 16:00: 0.9100
2025-01-24 17:00: 0.9100
2025-01-24 18:00: 0.9150
2025-01-24 19:00: 0.9100
2025-01-24 20:00: 0.9100
2025-01-24 21:00: 0.9100
2025-01-24 22:00: 0.9100
2025-01-24 23:00: 0.9050
2025-01-25 00:00: 0.9100
2025-01-25 01:00: 0.9100
2025-01-25 02:00: 0.9100
2025-01-25 03:00: 0.9100
2025-01-25 04:00: 0.9100
2025-01-25 05:00: 0.9050
2025-01-25 06:00: 0.9050
2025-01-25 07:00: 0.9050
2025-01-25 08:00: 0.9100
2025-01-25 09:00: 0.9100
2025-01-25 10:00: 0.9100
2025-01-25 11:00: 0.9100
2025-01-25 12:00: 0.9100
2025-01-25 13:00: 0.9100
2025-01-25 14:00: 0.9050
2025-01-25 15:00: 0.9050
2025-01-25 16:00: 0.9100
Trade Summary: Total trades: 35, Buy volume: 1930.97, Sell volume: 249.11, Average price: 0.4904, Price range: 0.0800 - 0.9200

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 518099
Question: Will 54 Senators vote to confirm RFK as Secretary of HHS?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 65410.143789
Price History:
2025-01-26 06:00: 0.0900
2025-01-26 07:00: 0.0900
2025-01-26 08:00: 0.0900
2025-01-26 09:00: 0.0900
2025-01-26 10:00: 0.0900
2025-01-26 11:00: 0.0900
2025-01-26 12:00: 0.0900
2025-01-26 13:00: 0.0950
2025-01-26 14:00: 0.0900
2025-01-26 15:00: 0.0900
2025-01-26 16:00: 0.0950
2025-01-26 17:00: 0.0900
2025-01-26 18:00: 0.0900
2025-01-26 19:00: 0.0900
2025-01-26 20:00: 0.0950
2025-01-26 21:00: 0.0950
2025-01-26 22:00: 0.0950
2025-01-26 23:00: 0.0950
2025-01-27 00:00: 0.0900
2025-01-27 01:00: 0.0850
2025-01-27 02:00: 0.0850
2025-01-27 03:00: 0.0900
2025-01-27 04:00: 0.0900
2025-01-27 05:00: 0.0900
2025-01-27 06:00: 0.0850
2025-01-27 07:00: 0.0900
2025-01-27 08:00: 0.0850
2025-01-27 09:00: 0.0950
2025-01-27 10:00: 0.0950
2025-01-27 11:00: 0.0900
2025-01-27 12:00: 0.0900
2025-01-27 13:00: 0.0900
2025-01-27 14:00: 0.0900
2025-01-27 15:00: 0.0900
2025-01-27 16:00: 0.0900
2025-01-27 17:00: 0.0900
2025-01-27 18:00: 0.0850
2025-01-27 19:00: 0.0850
2025-01-27 20:00: 0.0900
2025-01-27 21:00: 0.0850
2025-01-27 22:00: 0.0850
2025-01-27 23:00: 0.0850
2025-01-28 00:00: 0.0850
2025-01-28 01:00: 0.0850
2025-01-28 02:00: 0.0900
2025-01-28 03:00: 0.0850
2025-01-28 04:00: 0.0850
2025-01-28 05:00: 0.0850
2025-01-28 06:00: 0.0850
2025-01-28 07:00: 0.0850
Trade Summary: Total trades: 61, Buy volume: 3967.09, Sell volume: 831.00, Average price: 0.7888, Price range: 0.0600 - 0.9369

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 518099
Question: Will 54 Senators vote to confirm RFK as Secretary of HHS?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 65410.143789
Price History:
2025-01-28 20:00: 0.9200
2025-01-28 21:00: 0.9300
2025-01-28 22:00: 0.9300
2025-01-28 23:00: 0.9300
2025-01-29 00:00: 0.9400
2025-01-29 01:00: 0.9400
2025-01-29 02:00: 0.9400
2025-01-29 03:00: 0.9400
2025-01-29 04:00: 0.9400
2025-01-29 05:00: 0.9400
2025-01-29 06:00: 0.9400
2025-01-29 07:00: 0.9450
2025-01-29 08:00: 0.9450
2025-01-29 09:00: 0.9450
2025-01-29 10:00: 0.9450
2025-01-29 11:00: 0.9400
2025-01-29 12:00: 0.9400
2025-01-29 13:00: 0.9400
2025-01-29 14:00: 0.9400
2025-01-29 15:00: 0.9400
2025-01-29 16:00: 0.9400
2025-01-29 17:00: 0.9400
2025-01-29 18:00: 0.9450
2025-01-29 19:00: 0.9550
2025-01-29 20:00: 0.9550
2025-01-29 21:00: 0.9700
2025-01-29 22:00: 0.9700
2025-01-29 23:00: 0.9700
2025-01-30 00:00: 0.9700
2025-01-30 01:00: 0.9700
2025-01-30 02:00: 0.9710
2025-01-30 03:00: 0.9700
2025-01-30 04:00: 0.9705
2025-01-30 05:00: 0.9700
2025-01-30 06:00: 0.9695
2025-01-30 07:00: 0.9695
2025-01-30 08:00: 0.9700
2025-01-30 09:00: 0.9700
2025-01-30 10:00: 0.9735
2025-01-30 11:00: 0.9715
2025-01-30 12:00: 0.9755
2025-01-30 13:00: 0.9755
2025-01-30 14:00: 0.9755
2025-01-30 15:00: 0.9755
2025-01-30 16:00: 0.9760
2025-01-30 17:00: 0.9755
2025-01-30 18:00: 0.9750
2025-01-30 19:00: 0.9805
2025-01-30 20:00: 0.9810
2025-01-30 21:00: 0.9815
Trade Summary: Total trades: 37, Buy volume: 2341.43, Sell volume: 105.87, Average price: 0.7219, Price range: 0.0120 - 0.9880

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 518099
Question: Will 54 Senators vote to confirm RFK as Secretary of HHS?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 65410.143789
Price History:
2025-01-31 11:00: 0.0160
2025-01-31 12:00: 0.0160
2025-01-31 13:00: 0.0165
2025-01-31 14:00: 0.0160
2025-01-31 15:00: 0.0165
2025-01-31 16:00: 0.0155
2025-01-31 17:00: 0.0150
2025-01-31 18:00: 0.0150
2025-01-31 19:00: 0.0150
2025-01-31 20:00: 0.0150
2025-01-31 21:00: 0.0150
2025-01-31 22:00: 0.0150
2025-01-31 23:00: 0.0155
2025-02-01 00:00: 0.0150
2025-02-01 01:00: 0.0155
2025-02-01 02:00: 0.0150
2025-02-01 03:00: 0.0155
2025-02-01 04:00: 0.0150
2025-02-01 05:00: 0.0145
2025-02-01 06:00: 0.0145
2025-02-01 07:00: 0.0145
2025-02-01 08:00: 0.0145
2025-02-01 09:00: 0.0150
2025-02-01 10:00: 0.0150
2025-02-01 11:00: 0.0145
2025-02-01 12:00: 0.0150
2025-02-01 13:00: 0.0150
2025-02-01 14:00: 0.0155
2025-02-01 15:00: 0.0155
2025-02-01 16:00: 0.0155
2025-02-01 17:00: 0.0155
2025-02-01 18:00: 0.0200
2025-02-01 19:00: 0.0200
2025-02-01 20:00: 0.0215
2025-02-01 21:00: 0.0260
2025-02-01 22:00: 0.0265
2025-02-01 23:00: 0.0265
2025-02-02 00:00: 0.0275
2025-02-02 01:00: 0.0275
2025-02-02 02:00: 0.0275
2025-02-02 03:00: 0.0500
2025-02-02 04:00: 0.0520
2025-02-02 05:00: 0.0570
2025-02-02 06:00: 0.0615
2025-02-02 07:00: 0.0630
2025-02-02 08:00: 0.0625
2025-02-02 09:00: 0.0625
2025-02-02 10:00: 0.0645
2025-02-02 11:00: 0.0520
2025-02-02 12:00: 0.0440
Trade Summary: Total trades: 52, Buy volume: 6813.87, Sell volume: 3063.55, Average price: 0.6277, Price range: 0.0130 - 0.9880

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 518099
Question: Will 54 Senators vote to confirm RFK as Secretary of HHS?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 65410.143789
Price History:
2025-02-03 01:00: 0.9675
2025-02-03 02:00: 0.9675
2025-02-03 03:00: 0.9675
2025-02-03 04:00: 0.9670
2025-02-03 05:00: 0.9665
2025-02-03 06:00: 0.9640
2025-02-03 07:00: 0.9635
2025-02-03 08:00: 0.9650
2025-02-03 09:00: 0.9660
2025-02-03 10:00: 0.9645
2025-02-03 11:00: 0.9650
2025-02-03 12:00: 0.9665
2025-02-03 13:00: 0.9630
2025-02-03 14:00: 0.9630
2025-02-03 15:00: 0.9630
2025-02-03 16:00: 0.9630
2025-02-03 17:00: 0.9660
2025-02-03 18:00: 0.9665
2025-02-03 19:00: 0.9660
2025-02-03 20:00: 0.9670
2025-02-03 21:00: 0.9675
2025-02-03 22:00: 0.9675
2025-02-03 23:00: 0.9670
2025-02-04 00:00: 0.9665
2025-02-04 01:00: 0.9670
2025-02-04 02:00: 0.9670
2025-02-04 03:00: 0.9670
2025-02-04 04:00: 0.9670
2025-02-04 05:00: 0.9620
2025-02-04 06:00: 0.9630
2025-02-04 07:00: 0.9650
2025-02-04 08:00: 0.9635
2025-02-04 09:00: 0.9640
2025-02-04 10:00: 0.9640
2025-02-04 11:00: 0.9640
2025-02-04 12:00: 0.9640
2025-02-04 13:00: 0.9640
2025-02-04 14:00: 0.9645
2025-02-04 15:00: 0.9650
2025-02-04 16:00: 0.9600
2025-02-04 17:00: 0.9545
2025-02-04 18:00: 0.9625
2025-02-04 19:00: 0.9625
2025-02-04 20:00: 0.9595
2025-02-04 21:00: 0.9570
2025-02-04 22:00: 0.6175
2025-02-04 23:00: 0.6175
2025-02-05 00:00: 0.8770
2025-02-05 01:00: 0.8995
2025-02-05 02:00: 0.9245
Trade Summary: Total trades: 55, Buy volume: 3948.23, Sell volume: 375.43, Average price: 0.4167, Price range: 0.0263 - 0.9730

Output: Yes