Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 561252
Question: Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Volume: 1352447.41936
Price History:
2025-11-14 03:00: 0.9810
2025-11-14 08:00: 0.9795
2025-11-14 13:00: 0.9795
2025-11-14 18:00: 0.9795
2025-11-14 23:00: 0.9795
2025-11-15 04:00: 0.9770
2025-11-15 09:00: 0.9770
2025-11-15 14:00: 0.9775
2025-11-15 19:00: 0.9775
2025-11-16 00:00: 0.9775
2025-11-16 05:00: 0.9760
2025-11-16 10:00: 0.9760
2025-11-16 15:00: 0.9765
2025-11-16 20:00: 0.9750
2025-11-17 01:00: 0.9750
2025-11-17 06:00: 0.9735
2025-11-17 11:00: 0.9730
2025-11-17 16:00: 0.9735
2025-11-17 21:00: 0.9725
2025-11-18 02:00: 0.9720
2025-11-18 07:00: 0.9720
2025-11-18 12:00: 0.9720
2025-11-18 17:00: 0.9765
2025-11-18 22:00: 0.9760
2025-11-19 03:00: 0.9760
2025-11-19 08:00: 0.9775
2025-11-19 13:00: 0.9765
2025-11-19 18:00: 0.9775
2025-11-19 23:00: 0.9780
2025-11-20 04:00: 0.9780
Trade Summary: No trades available
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 561254
Question: Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 8842313.96889
Price History:
2025-10-01 18:00: 0.5000
2025-10-01 19:00: 0.9950
2025-10-01 21:00: 0.9945
2025-10-01 22:00: 0.0055
2025-10-02 00:00: 0.0055
2025-10-02 01:00: 0.9950
2025-10-02 03:00: 0.0040
2025-10-02 04:00: 0.9960
2025-10-02 06:00: 0.0045
2025-10-02 07:00: 0.9955
2025-10-02 09:00: 0.0045
2025-10-02 10:00: 0.9955
2025-10-02 12:00: 0.0045
2025-10-02 13:00: 0.9955
2025-10-02 15:00: 0.0045
2025-10-02 16:00: 0.9955
2025-10-02 18:00: 0.0045
2025-10-02 19:00: 0.9955
2025-10-02 21:00: 0.0045
2025-10-02 22:00: 0.9955
2025-10-03 00:00: 0.9955
2025-10-03 01:00: 0.9955
2025-10-03 03:00: 0.0045
2025-10-03 04:00: 0.0065
2025-10-03 06:00: 0.9930
2025-10-03 07:00: 0.0070
2025-10-03 09:00: 0.9930
2025-10-03 10:00: 0.0065
2025-10-03 12:00: 0.9940
2025-10-03 13:00: 0.9940
2025-10-03 15:00: 0.0065
2025-10-03 16:00: 0.0065
2025-10-03 18:00: 0.9935
2025-10-03 19:00: 0.0065
2025-10-03 21:00: 0.0065
2025-10-03 22:00: 0.9935
2025-10-04 00:00: 0.9935
2025-10-04 01:00: 0.0065
2025-10-04 03:00: 0.9935
2025-10-04 04:00: 0.9930
2025-10-04 06:00: 0.0070
2025-10-04 07:00: 0.9935
2025-10-04 09:00: 0.0065
2025-10-04 10:00: 0.0065
2025-10-04 12:00: 0.0065
2025-10-04 13:00: 0.9935
2025-10-04 15:00: 0.0065
2025-10-04 16:00: 0.0065
2025-10-04 18:00: 0.0065
2025-10-04 19:00: 0.9935
Trade Summary: No trades available

Output: No


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 561254
Question: Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 8842313.96889
Price History:
2025-10-05 13:00: 0.9935
2025-10-05 15:00: 0.0065
2025-10-05 16:00: 0.9935
2025-10-05 18:00: 0.0065
2025-10-05 19:00: 0.9935
2025-10-05 21:00: 0.0065
2025-10-05 22:00: 0.0065
2025-10-06 00:00: 0.0065
2025-10-06 01:00: 0.9935
2025-10-06 03:00: 0.0065
2025-10-06 04:00: 0.9935
2025-10-06 06:00: 0.9935
2025-10-06 07:00: 0.0065
2025-10-06 09:00: 0.9935
2025-10-06 10:00: 0.0065
2025-10-06 12:00: 0.9935
2025-10-06 13:00: 0.0065
2025-10-06 15:00: 0.0065
2025-10-06 16:00: 0.9935
2025-10-06 18:00: 0.0065
2025-10-06 19:00: 0.0065
2025-10-06 21:00: 0.9935
2025-10-06 22:00: 0.0065
2025-10-07 00:00: 0.9935
2025-10-07 01:00: 0.0065
2025-10-07 03:00: 0.9935
2025-10-07 04:00: 0.0065
2025-10-07 06:00: 0.9935
2025-10-07 07:00: 0.9935
2025-10-07 09:00: 0.9935
2025-10-07 10:00: 0.0065
2025-10-07 12:00: 0.9935
2025-10-07 13:00: 0.0065
2025-10-07 15:00: 0.9935
2025-10-07 16:00: 0.0065
2025-10-07 18:00: 0.9935
2025-10-07 19:00: 0.0065
2025-10-07 21:00: 0.9935
2025-10-07 22:00: 0.0065
2025-10-08 00:00: 0.9935
2025-10-08 01:00: 0.0065
2025-10-08 03:00: 0.9935
2025-10-08 04:00: 0.0065
2025-10-08 06:00: 0.0065
2025-10-08 07:00: 0.0065
2025-10-08 09:00: 0.9925
2025-10-08 10:00: 0.0075
2025-10-08 12:00: 0.0070
2025-10-08 13:00: 0.0065
2025-10-08 15:00: 0.0065
Trade Summary: No trades available

Output: No


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 561254
Question: Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 8842313.96889
Price History:
2025-10-09 09:00: 0.9935
2025-10-09 10:00: 0.0065
2025-10-09 12:00: 0.0070
2025-10-09 13:00: 0.9930
2025-10-09 15:00: 0.9930
2025-10-09 16:00: 0.0070
2025-10-09 18:00: 0.9930
2025-10-09 19:00: 0.0070
2025-10-09 21:00: 0.9930
2025-10-09 22:00: 0.9930
2025-10-10 00:00: 0.0070
2025-10-10 01:00: 0.9930
2025-10-10 03:00: 0.9930
2025-10-10 04:00: 0.0070
2025-10-10 06:00: 0.0065
2025-10-10 07:00: 0.9935
2025-10-10 09:00: 0.0065
2025-10-10 10:00: 0.9935
2025-10-10 12:00: 0.9925
2025-10-10 13:00: 0.9925
2025-10-10 15:00: 0.0075
2025-10-10 16:00: 0.0075
2025-10-10 18:00: 0.0075
2025-10-10 19:00: 0.9925
2025-10-10 21:00: 0.0075
2025-10-10 22:00: 0.9925
2025-10-11 00:00: 0.0075
2025-10-11 01:00: 0.0105
2025-10-11 03:00: 0.9905
2025-10-11 04:00: 0.9905
2025-10-11 06:00: 0.9900
2025-10-11 07:00: 0.0100
2025-10-11 09:00: 0.9900
2025-10-11 10:00: 0.9895
2025-10-11 12:00: 0.9900
2025-10-11 13:00: 0.0095
2025-10-11 15:00: 0.0095
2025-10-11 16:00: 0.9905
2025-10-11 18:00: 0.9910
2025-10-11 19:00: 0.0090
2025-10-11 21:00: 0.9905
2025-10-11 22:00: 0.0095
2025-10-12 00:00: 0.9910
2025-10-12 01:00: 0.0095
2025-10-12 03:00: 0.9905
2025-10-12 04:00: 0.0095
2025-10-12 06:00: 0.0100
2025-10-12 07:00: 0.0100
2025-10-12 09:00: 0.0100
2025-10-12 10:00: 0.9900
Trade Summary: No trades available

Output: No


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 561254
Question: Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 8842313.96889
Price History:
2025-10-13 04:00: 0.9905
2025-10-13 06:00: 0.9905
2025-10-13 07:00: 0.9905
2025-10-13 09:00: 0.9905
2025-10-13 10:00: 0.0095
2025-10-13 12:00: 0.9905
2025-10-13 13:00: 0.0095
2025-10-13 15:00: 0.9905
2025-10-13 16:00: 0.0085
2025-10-13 18:00: 0.9915
2025-10-13 19:00: 0.0085
2025-10-13 21:00: 0.9915
2025-10-13 22:00: 0.0085
2025-10-14 00:00: 0.9915
2025-10-14 01:00: 0.0085
2025-10-14 03:00: 0.9915
2025-10-14 04:00: 0.0085
2025-10-14 06:00: 0.0085
2025-10-14 07:00: 0.0085
2025-10-14 09:00: 0.9910
2025-10-14 10:00: 0.0095
2025-10-14 12:00: 0.0095
2025-10-14 13:00: 0.9905
2025-10-14 15:00: 0.0095
2025-10-14 16:00: 0.0095
2025-10-14 18:00: 0.0095
2025-10-14 19:00: 0.9905
2025-10-14 21:00: 0.9905
2025-10-14 22:00: 0.0095
2025-10-15 00:00: 0.9905
2025-10-15 01:00: 0.0095
2025-10-15 03:00: 0.9905
2025-10-15 04:00: 0.0095
2025-10-15 06:00: 0.0095
2025-10-15 07:00: 0.9905
2025-10-15 09:00: 0.0095
2025-10-15 10:00: 0.9905
2025-10-15 12:00: 0.0095
2025-10-15 13:00: 0.9905
2025-10-15 15:00: 0.0095
2025-10-15 16:00: 0.9905
2025-10-15 18:00: 0.0095
2025-10-15 19:00: 0.9905
2025-10-15 21:00: 0.0095
2025-10-15 22:00: 0.9905
2025-10-16 00:00: 0.9905
2025-10-16 01:00: 0.9905
2025-10-16 03:00: 0.9905
2025-10-16 04:00: 0.9905
2025-10-16 06:00: 0.9905
Trade Summary: No trades available

Output: No


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 561254
Question: Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 8842313.96889
Price History:
2025-10-17 00:00: 0.0095
2025-10-17 01:00: 0.9905
2025-10-17 03:00: 0.0095
2025-10-17 04:00: 0.9905
2025-10-17 06:00: 0.0095
2025-10-17 07:00: 0.9905
2025-10-17 09:00: 0.0095
2025-10-17 10:00: 0.9905
2025-10-17 12:00: 0.9905
2025-10-17 13:00: 0.9905
2025-10-17 15:00: 0.0095
2025-10-17 16:00: 0.9905
2025-10-17 18:00: 0.0095
2025-10-17 19:00: 0.9905
2025-10-17 21:00: 0.0095
2025-10-17 22:00: 0.9905
2025-10-18 00:00: 0.0095
2025-10-18 01:00: 0.9905
2025-10-18 03:00: 0.0095
2025-10-18 04:00: 0.9905
2025-10-18 06:00: 0.0095
2025-10-18 07:00: 0.9905
2025-10-18 09:00: 0.0095
2025-10-18 10:00: 0.9905
2025-10-18 12:00: 0.9905
2025-10-18 13:00: 0.9905
2025-10-18 15:00: 0.0095
2025-10-18 16:00: 0.9905
2025-10-18 18:00: 0.0095
2025-10-18 19:00: 0.9905
2025-10-18 21:00: 0.0095
2025-10-18 22:00: 0.9905
2025-10-19 00:00: 0.9900
2025-10-19 01:00: 0.0095
2025-10-19 03:00: 0.0095
2025-10-19 04:00: 0.9905
2025-10-19 06:00: 0.9905
2025-10-19 07:00: 0.0095
2025-10-19 09:00: 0.0095
2025-10-19 10:00: 0.0095
2025-10-19 12:00: 0.9905
2025-10-19 13:00: 0.0095
2025-10-19 15:00: 0.9905
2025-10-19 16:00: 0.0095
2025-10-19 18:00: 0.9905
2025-10-19 19:00: 0.9905
2025-10-19 21:00: 0.0095
2025-10-19 22:00: 0.0095
2025-10-20 00:00: 0.0095
2025-10-20 01:00: 0.0095
Trade Summary: No trades available

Output: No


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 561254
Question: Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 8842313.96889
Price History:
2025-10-20 19:00: 0.0105
2025-10-20 21:00: 0.9895
2025-10-20 22:00: 0.0105
2025-10-21 00:00: 0.9895
2025-10-21 01:00: 0.9895
2025-10-21 03:00: 0.9895
2025-10-21 04:00: 0.9895
2025-10-21 06:00: 0.0095
2025-10-21 07:00: 0.9905
2025-10-21 09:00: 0.0095
2025-10-21 10:00: 0.0095
2025-10-21 12:00: 0.9905
2025-10-21 13:00: 0.0095
2025-10-21 15:00: 0.0095
2025-10-21 16:00: 0.9905
2025-10-21 18:00: 0.9905
2025-10-21 19:00: 0.0095
2025-10-21 21:00: 0.9895
2025-10-21 22:00: 0.0105
2025-10-22 00:00: 0.9895
2025-10-22 01:00: 0.0105
2025-10-22 03:00: 0.9895
2025-10-22 04:00: 0.0105
2025-10-22 06:00: 0.9895
2025-10-22 07:00: 0.0105
2025-10-22 09:00: 0.9895
2025-10-22 10:00: 0.0105
2025-10-22 12:00: 0.9895
2025-10-22 13:00: 0.0105
2025-10-22 15:00: 0.9900
2025-10-22 16:00: 0.0105
2025-10-22 18:00: 0.9895
2025-10-22 19:00: 0.0105
2025-10-22 21:00: 0.9895
2025-10-22 22:00: 0.0105
2025-10-23 00:00: 0.9895
2025-10-23 01:00: 0.0105
2025-10-23 03:00: 0.9895
2025-10-23 04:00: 0.0105
2025-10-23 06:00: 0.9895
2025-10-23 07:00: 0.0105
2025-10-23 09:00: 0.9895
2025-10-23 10:00: 0.0105
2025-10-23 12:00: 0.9895
2025-10-23 13:00: 0.0105
2025-10-23 15:00: 0.9895
2025-10-23 16:00: 0.0105
2025-10-23 18:00: 0.9895
2025-10-23 19:00: 0.0105
2025-10-23 21:00: 0.9895
Trade Summary: No trades available

Output: No


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 561254
Question: Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 8842313.96889
Price History:
2025-10-24 15:00: 0.9895
2025-10-24 16:00: 0.0105
2025-10-24 18:00: 0.9895
2025-10-24 19:00: 0.0105
2025-10-24 21:00: 0.9895
2025-10-24 22:00: 0.0105
2025-10-25 00:00: 0.9895
2025-10-25 01:00: 0.0105
2025-10-25 03:00: 0.9895
2025-10-25 04:00: 0.0105
2025-10-25 06:00: 0.9895
2025-10-25 07:00: 0.0105
2025-10-25 09:00: 0.9905
2025-10-25 10:00: 0.0095
2025-10-25 12:00: 0.9905
2025-10-25 13:00: 0.0095
2025-10-25 15:00: 0.9895
2025-10-25 16:00: 0.0105
2025-10-25 18:00: 0.9895
2025-10-25 19:00: 0.0105
2025-10-25 21:00: 0.9895
2025-10-25 22:00: 0.0105
2025-10-26 00:00: 0.9895
2025-10-26 01:00: 0.0105
2025-10-26 03:00: 0.9895
2025-10-26 04:00: 0.0105
2025-10-26 06:00: 0.9895
2025-10-26 07:00: 0.0105
2025-10-26 09:00: 0.9895
2025-10-26 10:00: 0.0105
2025-10-26 12:00: 0.9905
2025-10-26 13:00: 0.0095
2025-10-26 15:00: 0.9905
2025-10-26 16:00: 0.0095
2025-10-26 18:00: 0.9905
2025-10-26 19:00: 0.0095
2025-10-26 21:00: 0.9905
2025-10-26 22:00: 0.0095
2025-10-27 00:00: 0.9905
2025-10-27 01:00: 0.0095
2025-10-27 03:00: 0.9905
2025-10-27 04:00: 0.0095
2025-10-27 06:00: 0.9905
2025-10-27 07:00: 0.0095
2025-10-27 09:00: 0.9905
2025-10-27 10:00: 0.0095
2025-10-27 12:00: 0.9905
2025-10-27 13:00: 0.0095
2025-10-27 15:00: 0.9905
2025-10-27 16:00: 0.0095
Trade Summary: No trades available

Output: No


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 561254
Question: Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 8842313.96889
Price History:
2025-10-28 10:00: 0.0095
2025-10-28 12:00: 0.9905
2025-10-28 13:00: 0.0095
2025-10-28 15:00: 0.9905
2025-10-28 16:00: 0.0095
2025-10-28 18:00: 0.9905
2025-10-28 19:00: 0.0095
2025-10-28 21:00: 0.9905
2025-10-28 22:00: 0.0095
2025-10-29 00:00: 0.9905
2025-10-29 01:00: 0.0095
2025-10-29 03:00: 0.9905
2025-10-29 04:00: 0.0095
2025-10-29 06:00: 0.9905
2025-10-29 11:00: 0.9905
2025-10-29 12:00: 0.0095
2025-10-29 14:00: 0.9905
2025-10-29 15:00: 0.0095
2025-10-29 17:00: 0.9905
2025-10-29 18:00: 0.0095
2025-10-29 20:00: 0.9905
2025-10-29 21:00: 0.0095
2025-10-29 23:00: 0.9905
2025-10-30 00:00: 0.0095
2025-10-30 02:00: 0.9905
2025-10-30 03:00: 0.0095
2025-10-30 05:00: 0.9895
2025-10-30 06:00: 0.0105
2025-10-30 08:00: 0.9895
2025-10-30 09:00: 0.0105
2025-10-30 11:00: 0.9895
2025-10-30 12:00: 0.0105
2025-10-30 14:00: 0.9895
2025-10-30 15:00: 0.0105
2025-10-30 17:00: 0.9895
2025-10-30 18:00: 0.0105
2025-10-30 20:00: 0.9895
2025-10-30 21:00: 0.0105
2025-10-30 23:00: 0.9895
2025-10-31 00:00: 0.0105
2025-10-31 02:00: 0.9895
2025-10-31 03:00: 0.0105
2025-10-31 05:00: 0.9895
2025-10-31 06:00: 0.0105
2025-10-31 08:00: 0.9895
2025-10-31 09:00: 0.0105
2025-10-31 11:00: 0.9895
2025-10-31 12:00: 0.0105
2025-10-31 14:00: 0.9895
2025-10-31 15:00: 0.0105
Trade Summary: No trades available

Output: No


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 561254
Question: Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 8842313.96889
Price History:
2025-11-01 09:00: 0.0105
2025-11-01 11:00: 0.9895
2025-11-01 12:00: 0.0105
2025-11-01 14:00: 0.9895
2025-11-01 15:00: 0.0105
2025-11-01 17:00: 0.9895
2025-11-01 18:00: 0.0105
2025-11-01 20:00: 0.9895
2025-11-01 21:00: 0.0105
2025-11-01 23:00: 0.9895
2025-11-02 00:00: 0.0105
2025-11-02 01:00: 0.9895
2025-11-02 02:00: 0.0105
2025-11-02 04:00: 0.9895
2025-11-02 05:00: 0.0095
2025-11-02 07:00: 0.9905
2025-11-02 08:00: 0.0095
2025-11-02 10:00: 0.9905
2025-11-02 11:00: 0.0095
2025-11-02 13:00: 0.9905
2025-11-02 14:00: 0.0095
2025-11-02 16:00: 0.9905
2025-11-02 17:00: 0.0095
2025-11-02 19:00: 0.9905
2025-11-02 20:00: 0.0095
2025-11-02 22:00: 0.9905
2025-11-02 23:00: 0.0095
2025-11-03 01:00: 0.9905
2025-11-03 02:00: 0.0095
2025-11-03 04:00: 0.9905
2025-11-03 05:00: 0.0095
2025-11-03 07:00: 0.9905
2025-11-03 08:00: 0.0095
2025-11-03 10:00: 0.9905
2025-11-03 11:00: 0.0095
2025-11-03 13:00: 0.9905
2025-11-03 14:00: 0.0095
2025-11-03 16:00: 0.9905
2025-11-03 17:00: 0.0095
2025-11-03 19:00: 0.9905
2025-11-03 20:00: 0.0095
2025-11-03 22:00: 0.9905
2025-11-03 23:00: 0.0095
2025-11-04 01:00: 0.9905
2025-11-04 02:00: 0.0095
2025-11-04 04:00: 0.9905
2025-11-04 05:00: 0.0095
2025-11-04 07:00: 0.9905
2025-11-04 08:00: 0.0095
2025-11-04 10:00: 0.9905
Trade Summary: No trades available

Output: No


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 561254
Question: Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 8842313.96889
Price History:
2025-11-05 04:00: 0.9905
2025-11-05 05:00: 0.0095
2025-11-05 07:00: 0.9905
2025-11-05 08:00: 0.0095
2025-11-05 10:00: 0.9905
2025-11-05 11:00: 0.0095
2025-11-05 13:00: 0.9905
2025-11-05 14:00: 0.0095
2025-11-05 16:00: 0.9905
2025-11-05 17:00: 0.0095
2025-11-05 19:00: 0.9905
2025-11-05 20:00: 0.0095
2025-11-05 22:00: 0.9905
2025-11-05 23:00: 0.0095
2025-11-06 01:00: 0.9905
2025-11-06 02:00: 0.0095
2025-11-06 04:00: 0.9905
2025-11-06 05:00: 0.0095
2025-11-06 07:00: 0.9905
2025-11-06 08:00: 0.0095
2025-11-06 10:00: 0.9905
2025-11-06 11:00: 0.0095
2025-11-06 13:00: 0.9905
2025-11-06 14:00: 0.0095
2025-11-06 16:00: 0.9905
2025-11-06 17:00: 0.0095
2025-11-06 19:00: 0.9905
2025-11-06 20:00: 0.0095
2025-11-06 22:00: 0.9905
2025-11-06 23:00: 0.0095
2025-11-07 01:00: 0.9905
2025-11-07 02:00: 0.0095
2025-11-07 04:00: 0.9905
2025-11-07 05:00: 0.0095
2025-11-07 07:00: 0.9905
2025-11-07 08:00: 0.0095
2025-11-07 10:00: 0.9905
2025-11-07 11:00: 0.0095
2025-11-07 13:00: 0.9905
2025-11-07 14:00: 0.0095
2025-11-07 16:00: 0.9905
2025-11-07 17:00: 0.0095
2025-11-07 19:00: 0.9905
2025-11-07 20:00: 0.0095
2025-11-07 22:00: 0.9905
2025-11-07 23:00: 0.0095
2025-11-08 01:00: 0.9905
2025-11-08 02:00: 0.0095
2025-11-08 04:00: 0.9905
2025-11-08 05:00: 0.0095
Trade Summary: No trades available

Output: No


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 561254
Question: Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 8842313.96889
Price History:
2025-11-08 23:00: 0.0095
2025-11-09 01:00: 0.9905
2025-11-09 02:00: 0.0095
2025-11-09 04:00: 0.9905
2025-11-09 05:00: 0.0095
2025-11-09 07:00: 0.9905
2025-11-09 08:00: 0.0095
2025-11-09 10:00: 0.9905
2025-11-09 11:00: 0.0095
2025-11-09 13:00: 0.9905
2025-11-09 14:00: 0.0095
2025-11-09 16:00: 0.9905
2025-11-09 17:00: 0.0095
2025-11-09 19:00: 0.9905
2025-11-09 20:00: 0.0095
2025-11-09 22:00: 0.9905
2025-11-09 23:00: 0.0095
2025-11-10 01:00: 0.9905
2025-11-10 02:00: 0.0095
2025-11-10 04:00: 0.9905
2025-11-10 05:00: 0.0095
2025-11-10 07:00: 0.9905
2025-11-10 08:00: 0.0095
2025-11-10 10:00: 0.9905
2025-11-10 11:00: 0.0095
2025-11-10 13:00: 0.9905
2025-11-10 14:00: 0.0095
2025-11-10 16:00: 0.9905
2025-11-10 17:00: 0.0095
2025-11-10 19:00: 0.9905
2025-11-10 20:00: 0.0095
2025-11-10 22:00: 0.9905
2025-11-10 23:00: 0.0095
2025-11-11 01:00: 0.9905
2025-11-11 02:00: 0.0095
2025-11-11 04:00: 0.9905
2025-11-11 05:00: 0.0095
2025-11-11 07:00: 0.9905
2025-11-11 08:00: 0.0095
2025-11-11 10:00: 0.9905
2025-11-11 11:00: 0.0095
2025-11-11 13:00: 0.9905
2025-11-11 14:00: 0.0095
2025-11-11 16:00: 0.9905
2025-11-11 17:00: 0.0095
2025-11-11 19:00: 0.9905
2025-11-11 20:00: 0.0095
2025-11-11 22:00: 0.9905
2025-11-11 23:00: 0.0095
2025-11-12 01:00: 0.9905
Trade Summary: No trades available

Output: No


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 561254
Question: Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 8842313.96889
Price History:
2025-11-12 19:00: 0.9905
2025-11-12 20:00: 0.0095
2025-11-12 22:00: 0.9905
2025-11-12 23:00: 0.0095
2025-11-13 01:00: 0.9905
2025-11-13 02:00: 0.0095
2025-11-13 04:00: 0.9905
2025-11-13 05:00: 0.0095
2025-11-13 07:00: 0.9905
2025-11-13 08:00: 0.0095
2025-11-13 10:00: 0.9905
2025-11-13 11:00: 0.0095
2025-11-13 13:00: 0.9905
2025-11-13 14:00: 0.0095
2025-11-13 16:00: 0.9905
2025-11-13 17:00: 0.0095
2025-11-13 19:00: 0.9905
2025-11-13 20:00: 0.0095
2025-11-13 22:00: 0.9905
2025-11-13 23:00: 0.0095
2025-11-14 01:00: 0.9905
2025-11-14 02:00: 0.0095
2025-11-14 04:00: 0.9905
2025-11-14 05:00: 0.0095
2025-11-14 07:00: 0.9905
2025-11-14 08:00: 0.0095
2025-11-14 10:00: 0.9905
2025-11-14 11:00: 0.0095
2025-11-14 13:00: 0.9905
2025-11-14 14:00: 0.0095
2025-11-14 16:00: 0.9905
2025-11-14 17:00: 0.0095
2025-11-14 19:00: 0.9905
2025-11-14 20:00: 0.0095
2025-11-14 22:00: 0.9905
2025-11-14 23:00: 0.0095
2025-11-15 01:00: 0.9905
2025-11-15 02:00: 0.0095
2025-11-15 04:00: 0.9905
2025-11-15 05:00: 0.0095
2025-11-15 07:00: 0.9905
2025-11-15 08:00: 0.0095
2025-11-15 10:00: 0.9905
2025-11-15 11:00: 0.0095
2025-11-15 13:00: 0.9905
2025-11-15 14:00: 0.0095
2025-11-15 16:00: 0.9905
2025-11-15 17:00: 0.0095
2025-11-15 19:00: 0.9905
2025-11-15 20:00: 0.0095
Trade Summary: No trades available

Output: No


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 561254
Question: Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 8842313.96889
Price History:
2025-11-16 14:00: 0.0095
2025-11-16 16:00: 0.9905
2025-11-16 17:00: 0.0095
2025-11-16 19:00: 0.9905
2025-11-16 20:00: 0.0095
2025-11-16 22:00: 0.9905
2025-11-16 23:00: 0.0095
2025-11-17 01:00: 0.9905
2025-11-17 02:00: 0.0095
2025-11-17 04:00: 0.9905
2025-11-17 05:00: 0.0095
2025-11-17 07:00: 0.9905
2025-11-17 08:00: 0.0095
2025-11-17 10:00: 0.9905
2025-11-17 11:00: 0.0095
2025-11-17 13:00: 0.9905
2025-11-17 14:00: 0.0095
2025-11-17 16:00: 0.9905
2025-11-17 17:00: 0.0095
2025-11-17 19:00: 0.9905
2025-11-17 20:00: 0.0095
2025-11-17 22:00: 0.9905
2025-11-17 23:00: 0.0095
2025-11-18 01:00: 0.9905
2025-11-18 02:00: 0.0095
2025-11-18 04:00: 0.9905
2025-11-18 05:00: 0.0095
2025-11-18 07:00: 0.9905
2025-11-18 08:00: 0.0095
2025-11-18 10:00: 0.9905
2025-11-18 11:00: 0.0095
2025-11-18 13:00: 0.9905
2025-11-18 14:00: 0.0095
2025-11-18 16:00: 0.9905
2025-11-18 17:00: 0.0095
2025-11-18 19:00: 0.9905
2025-11-18 20:00: 0.0095
2025-11-18 22:00: 0.9905
2025-11-18 23:00: 0.0095
2025-11-19 01:00: 0.9905
2025-11-19 02:00: 0.0095
2025-11-19 04:00: 0.9905
2025-11-19 05:00: 0.0095
2025-11-19 07:00: 0.9905
2025-11-19 08:00: 0.0095
2025-11-19 10:00: 0.9905
2025-11-19 11:00: 0.0095
2025-11-19 13:00: 0.9905
2025-11-19 14:00: 0.0095
2025-11-19 16:00: 0.9905
Trade Summary: No trades available

Output: No


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 561254
Question: Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Volume: 8842313.96889
Price History:
2025-10-01 18:00: 0.5000
2025-10-01 21:00: 0.9945
2025-10-02 00:00: 0.0055
2025-10-02 03:00: 0.0040
2025-10-02 06:00: 0.0045
2025-10-02 09:00: 0.0045
2025-10-02 12:00: 0.0045
2025-10-02 15:00: 0.0045
2025-10-02 18:00: 0.0045
2025-10-02 21:00: 0.0045
2025-10-03 00:00: 0.9955
2025-10-03 03:00: 0.0045
2025-10-03 06:00: 0.9930
2025-10-03 09:00: 0.9930
2025-10-03 12:00: 0.9940
2025-10-03 15:00: 0.0065
2025-10-03 18:00: 0.9935
2025-10-03 21:00: 0.0065
2025-10-04 00:00: 0.9935
2025-10-04 03:00: 0.9935
2025-10-04 06:00: 0.0070
2025-10-04 09:00: 0.0065
2025-10-04 12:00: 0.0065
2025-10-04 15:00: 0.0065
2025-10-04 18:00: 0.0065
2025-10-04 21:00: 0.9935
2025-10-05 00:00: 0.0065
2025-10-05 03:00: 0.0065
2025-10-05 06:00: 0.0065
2025-10-05 09:00: 0.0065
Trade Summary: No trades available
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 561254
Question: Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Volume: 8842313.96889
Price History:
2025-10-05 13:00: 0.9935
2025-10-05 16:00: 0.9935
2025-10-05 19:00: 0.9935
2025-10-05 22:00: 0.0065
2025-10-06 01:00: 0.9935
2025-10-06 04:00: 0.9935
2025-10-06 07:00: 0.0065
2025-10-06 10:00: 0.0065
2025-10-06 13:00: 0.0065
2025-10-06 16:00: 0.9935
2025-10-06 19:00: 0.0065
2025-10-06 22:00: 0.0065
2025-10-07 01:00: 0.0065
2025-10-07 04:00: 0.0065
2025-10-07 07:00: 0.9935
2025-10-07 10:00: 0.0065
2025-10-07 13:00: 0.0065
2025-10-07 16:00: 0.0065
2025-10-07 19:00: 0.0065
2025-10-07 22:00: 0.0065
2025-10-08 01:00: 0.0065
2025-10-08 04:00: 0.0065
2025-10-08 07:00: 0.0065
2025-10-08 10:00: 0.0075
2025-10-08 13:00: 0.0065
2025-10-08 16:00: 0.9935
2025-10-08 19:00: 0.9935
2025-10-08 22:00: 0.9935
2025-10-09 01:00: 0.9935
2025-10-09 04:00: 0.9935
Trade Summary: No trades available
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 561254
Question: Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Volume: 8842313.96889
Price History:
2025-10-09 09:00: 0.9935
2025-10-09 12:00: 0.0070
2025-10-09 15:00: 0.9930
2025-10-09 18:00: 0.9930
2025-10-09 21:00: 0.9930
2025-10-10 00:00: 0.0070
2025-10-10 03:00: 0.9930
2025-10-10 06:00: 0.0065
2025-10-10 09:00: 0.0065
2025-10-10 12:00: 0.9925
2025-10-10 15:00: 0.0075
2025-10-10 18:00: 0.0075
2025-10-10 21:00: 0.0075
2025-10-11 00:00: 0.0075
2025-10-11 03:00: 0.9905
2025-10-11 06:00: 0.9900
2025-10-11 09:00: 0.9900
2025-10-11 12:00: 0.9900
2025-10-11 15:00: 0.0095
2025-10-11 18:00: 0.9910
2025-10-11 21:00: 0.9905
2025-10-12 00:00: 0.9910
2025-10-12 03:00: 0.9905
2025-10-12 06:00: 0.0100
2025-10-12 09:00: 0.0100
2025-10-12 12:00: 0.0095
2025-10-12 15:00: 0.0095
2025-10-12 18:00: 0.9905
2025-10-12 21:00: 0.0095
2025-10-13 00:00: 0.0095
Trade Summary: No trades available
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 561254
Question: Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Volume: 8842313.96889
Price History:
2025-10-13 04:00: 0.9905
2025-10-13 07:00: 0.9905
2025-10-13 10:00: 0.0095
2025-10-13 13:00: 0.0095
2025-10-13 16:00: 0.0085
2025-10-13 19:00: 0.0085
2025-10-13 22:00: 0.0085
2025-10-14 01:00: 0.0085
2025-10-14 04:00: 0.0085
2025-10-14 07:00: 0.0085
2025-10-14 10:00: 0.0095
2025-10-14 13:00: 0.9905
2025-10-14 16:00: 0.0095
2025-10-14 19:00: 0.9905
2025-10-14 22:00: 0.0095
2025-10-15 01:00: 0.0095
2025-10-15 04:00: 0.0095
2025-10-15 07:00: 0.9905
2025-10-15 10:00: 0.9905
2025-10-15 13:00: 0.9905
2025-10-15 16:00: 0.9905
2025-10-15 19:00: 0.9905
2025-10-15 22:00: 0.9905
2025-10-16 01:00: 0.9905
2025-10-16 04:00: 0.9905
2025-10-16 07:00: 0.0095
2025-10-16 10:00: 0.0095
2025-10-16 13:00: 0.0095
2025-10-16 16:00: 0.0095
2025-10-16 19:00: 0.0095
Trade Summary: No trades available
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 561254
Question: Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Volume: 8842313.96889
Price History:
2025-10-17 00:00: 0.0095
2025-10-17 03:00: 0.0095
2025-10-17 06:00: 0.0095
2025-10-17 09:00: 0.0095
2025-10-17 12:00: 0.9905
2025-10-17 15:00: 0.0095
2025-10-17 18:00: 0.0095
2025-10-17 21:00: 0.0095
2025-10-18 00:00: 0.0095
2025-10-18 03:00: 0.0095
2025-10-18 06:00: 0.0095
2025-10-18 09:00: 0.0095
2025-10-18 12:00: 0.9905
2025-10-18 15:00: 0.0095
2025-10-18 18:00: 0.0095
2025-10-18 21:00: 0.0095
2025-10-19 00:00: 0.9900
2025-10-19 03:00: 0.0095
2025-10-19 06:00: 0.9905
2025-10-19 09:00: 0.0095
2025-10-19 12:00: 0.9905
2025-10-19 15:00: 0.9905
2025-10-19 18:00: 0.9905
2025-10-19 21:00: 0.0095
2025-10-20 00:00: 0.0095
2025-10-20 03:00: 0.9905
2025-10-20 06:00: 0.0095
2025-10-20 09:00: 0.9905
2025-10-20 12:00: 0.0095
2025-10-20 15:00: 0.0105
Trade Summary: No trades available
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 561254
Question: Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Volume: 8842313.96889
Price History:
2025-10-20 19:00: 0.0105
2025-10-20 22:00: 0.0105
2025-10-21 01:00: 0.9895
2025-10-21 04:00: 0.9895
2025-10-21 07:00: 0.9905
2025-10-21 10:00: 0.0095
2025-10-21 13:00: 0.0095
2025-10-21 16:00: 0.9905
2025-10-21 19:00: 0.0095
2025-10-21 22:00: 0.0105
2025-10-22 01:00: 0.0105
2025-10-22 04:00: 0.0105
2025-10-22 07:00: 0.0105
2025-10-22 10:00: 0.0105
2025-10-22 13:00: 0.0105
2025-10-22 16:00: 0.0105
2025-10-22 19:00: 0.0105
2025-10-22 22:00: 0.0105
2025-10-23 01:00: 0.0105
2025-10-23 04:00: 0.0105
2025-10-23 07:00: 0.0105
2025-10-23 10:00: 0.0105
2025-10-23 13:00: 0.0105
2025-10-23 16:00: 0.0105
2025-10-23 19:00: 0.0105
2025-10-23 22:00: 0.0105
2025-10-24 01:00: 0.0105
2025-10-24 04:00: 0.0105
2025-10-24 07:00: 0.0105
2025-10-24 10:00: 0.0105
Trade Summary: No trades available
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 561254
Question: Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Volume: 8842313.96889
Price History:
2025-10-24 15:00: 0.9895
2025-10-24 18:00: 0.9895
2025-10-24 21:00: 0.9895
2025-10-25 00:00: 0.9895
2025-10-25 03:00: 0.9895
2025-10-25 06:00: 0.9895
2025-10-25 09:00: 0.9905
2025-10-25 12:00: 0.9905
2025-10-25 15:00: 0.9895
2025-10-25 18:00: 0.9895
2025-10-25 21:00: 0.9895
2025-10-26 00:00: 0.9895
2025-10-26 03:00: 0.9895
2025-10-26 06:00: 0.9895
2025-10-26 09:00: 0.9895
2025-10-26 12:00: 0.9905
2025-10-26 15:00: 0.9905
2025-10-26 18:00: 0.9905
2025-10-26 21:00: 0.9905
2025-10-27 00:00: 0.9905
2025-10-27 03:00: 0.9905
2025-10-27 06:00: 0.9905
2025-10-27 09:00: 0.9905
2025-10-27 12:00: 0.9905
2025-10-27 15:00: 0.9905
2025-10-27 18:00: 0.9905
2025-10-27 21:00: 0.9905
2025-10-28 00:00: 0.9905
2025-10-28 03:00: 0.9905
2025-10-28 06:00: 0.9905
Trade Summary: No trades available
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 561254
Question: Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Volume: 8842313.96889
Price History:
2025-10-28 10:00: 0.0095
2025-10-28 13:00: 0.0095
2025-10-28 16:00: 0.0095
2025-10-28 19:00: 0.0095
2025-10-28 22:00: 0.0095
2025-10-29 01:00: 0.0095
2025-10-29 04:00: 0.0095
2025-10-29 11:00: 0.9905
2025-10-29 14:00: 0.9905
2025-10-29 17:00: 0.9905
2025-10-29 20:00: 0.9905
2025-10-29 23:00: 0.9905
2025-10-30 02:00: 0.9905
2025-10-30 05:00: 0.9895
2025-10-30 08:00: 0.9895
2025-10-30 11:00: 0.9895
2025-10-30 14:00: 0.9895
2025-10-30 17:00: 0.9895
2025-10-30 20:00: 0.9895
2025-10-30 23:00: 0.9895
2025-10-31 02:00: 0.9895
2025-10-31 05:00: 0.9895
2025-10-31 08:00: 0.9895
2025-10-31 11:00: 0.9895
2025-10-31 14:00: 0.9895
2025-10-31 17:00: 0.9895
2025-10-31 20:00: 0.9895
2025-10-31 23:00: 0.9895
2025-11-01 02:00: 0.9895
2025-11-01 05:00: 0.9895
Trade Summary: No trades available
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 561254
Question: Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Volume: 8842313.96889
Price History:
2025-11-01 09:00: 0.0105
2025-11-01 12:00: 0.0105
2025-11-01 15:00: 0.0105
2025-11-01 18:00: 0.0105
2025-11-01 21:00: 0.0105
2025-11-02 00:00: 0.0105
2025-11-02 02:00: 0.0105
2025-11-02 05:00: 0.0095
2025-11-02 08:00: 0.0095
2025-11-02 11:00: 0.0095
2025-11-02 14:00: 0.0095
2025-11-02 17:00: 0.0095
2025-11-02 20:00: 0.0095
2025-11-02 23:00: 0.0095
2025-11-03 02:00: 0.0095
2025-11-03 05:00: 0.0095
2025-11-03 08:00: 0.0095
2025-11-03 11:00: 0.0095
2025-11-03 14:00: 0.0095
2025-11-03 17:00: 0.0095
2025-11-03 20:00: 0.0095
2025-11-03 23:00: 0.0095
2025-11-04 02:00: 0.0095
2025-11-04 05:00: 0.0095
2025-11-04 08:00: 0.0095
2025-11-04 11:00: 0.0095
2025-11-04 14:00: 0.0095
2025-11-04 17:00: 0.0095
2025-11-04 20:00: 0.0095
2025-11-04 23:00: 0.0095
Trade Summary: No trades available
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 561254
Question: Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Volume: 8842313.96889
Price History:
2025-11-05 04:00: 0.9905
2025-11-05 07:00: 0.9905
2025-11-05 10:00: 0.9905
2025-11-05 13:00: 0.9905
2025-11-05 16:00: 0.9905
2025-11-05 19:00: 0.9905
2025-11-05 22:00: 0.9905
2025-11-06 01:00: 0.9905
2025-11-06 04:00: 0.9905
2025-11-06 07:00: 0.9905
2025-11-06 10:00: 0.9905
2025-11-06 13:00: 0.9905
2025-11-06 16:00: 0.9905
2025-11-06 19:00: 0.9905
2025-11-06 22:00: 0.9905
2025-11-07 01:00: 0.9905
2025-11-07 04:00: 0.9905
2025-11-07 07:00: 0.9905
2025-11-07 10:00: 0.9905
2025-11-07 13:00: 0.9905
2025-11-07 16:00: 0.9905
2025-11-07 19:00: 0.9905
2025-11-07 22:00: 0.9905
2025-11-08 01:00: 0.9905
2025-11-08 04:00: 0.9905
2025-11-08 07:00: 0.9905
2025-11-08 10:00: 0.9905
2025-11-08 13:00: 0.9905
2025-11-08 16:00: 0.9905
2025-11-08 19:00: 0.9905
Trade Summary: No trades available
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 561254
Question: Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Volume: 8842313.96889
Price History:
2025-11-08 23:00: 0.0095
2025-11-09 02:00: 0.0095
2025-11-09 05:00: 0.0095
2025-11-09 08:00: 0.0095
2025-11-09 11:00: 0.0095
2025-11-09 14:00: 0.0095
2025-11-09 17:00: 0.0095
2025-11-09 20:00: 0.0095
2025-11-09 23:00: 0.0095
2025-11-10 02:00: 0.0095
2025-11-10 05:00: 0.0095
2025-11-10 08:00: 0.0095
2025-11-10 11:00: 0.0095
2025-11-10 14:00: 0.0095
2025-11-10 17:00: 0.0095
2025-11-10 20:00: 0.0095
2025-11-10 23:00: 0.0095
2025-11-11 02:00: 0.0095
2025-11-11 05:00: 0.0095
2025-11-11 08:00: 0.0095
2025-11-11 11:00: 0.0095
2025-11-11 14:00: 0.0095
2025-11-11 17:00: 0.0095
2025-11-11 20:00: 0.0095
2025-11-11 23:00: 0.0095
2025-11-12 02:00: 0.0095
2025-11-12 05:00: 0.0095
2025-11-12 08:00: 0.0095
2025-11-12 11:00: 0.0095
2025-11-12 14:00: 0.0095
Trade Summary: No trades available
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 561254
Question: Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Volume: 8842313.96889
Price History:
2025-11-12 19:00: 0.9905
2025-11-12 22:00: 0.9905
2025-11-13 01:00: 0.9905
2025-11-13 04:00: 0.9905
2025-11-13 07:00: 0.9905
2025-11-13 10:00: 0.9905
2025-11-13 13:00: 0.9905
2025-11-13 16:00: 0.9905
2025-11-13 19:00: 0.9905
2025-11-13 22:00: 0.9905
2025-11-14 01:00: 0.9905
2025-11-14 04:00: 0.9905
2025-11-14 07:00: 0.9905
2025-11-14 10:00: 0.9905
2025-11-14 13:00: 0.9905
2025-11-14 16:00: 0.9905
2025-11-14 19:00: 0.9905
2025-11-14 22:00: 0.9905
2025-11-15 01:00: 0.9905
2025-11-15 04:00: 0.9905
2025-11-15 07:00: 0.9905
2025-11-15 10:00: 0.9905
2025-11-15 13:00: 0.9905
2025-11-15 16:00: 0.9905
2025-11-15 19:00: 0.9905
2025-11-15 22:00: 0.9905
2025-11-16 01:00: 0.9905
2025-11-16 04:00: 0.9905
2025-11-16 07:00: 0.9905
2025-11-16 10:00: 0.9905
Trade Summary: No trades available
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 561254
Question: Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Volume: 8842313.96889
Price History:
2025-11-16 14:00: 0.0095
2025-11-16 17:00: 0.0095
2025-11-16 20:00: 0.0095
2025-11-16 23:00: 0.0095
2025-11-17 02:00: 0.0095
2025-11-17 05:00: 0.0095
2025-11-17 08:00: 0.0095
2025-11-17 11:00: 0.0095
2025-11-17 14:00: 0.0095
2025-11-17 17:00: 0.0095
2025-11-17 20:00: 0.0095
2025-11-17 23:00: 0.0095
2025-11-18 02:00: 0.0095
2025-11-18 05:00: 0.0095
2025-11-18 08:00: 0.0095
2025-11-18 11:00: 0.0095
2025-11-18 14:00: 0.0095
2025-11-18 17:00: 0.0095
2025-11-18 20:00: 0.0095
2025-11-18 23:00: 0.0095
2025-11-19 02:00: 0.0095
2025-11-19 05:00: 0.0095
2025-11-19 08:00: 0.0095
2025-11-19 11:00: 0.0095
2025-11-19 14:00: 0.0095
2025-11-19 17:00: 0.0095
2025-11-19 20:00: 0.0095
2025-11-19 23:00: 0.0095
2025-11-20 02:00: 0.0095
2025-11-20 05:00: 0.0095
Trade Summary: No trades available
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 561256
Question: Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 1111423.360292
Price History:
2025-11-04 15:00: 0.5000
2025-11-04 15:00: 0.5000
2025-11-04 16:00: 0.0040
2025-11-04 16:00: 0.9960
2025-11-04 17:00: 0.0040
2025-11-04 17:00: 0.9960
2025-11-04 18:00: 0.0040
2025-11-04 18:00: 0.9960
2025-11-04 19:00: 0.0040
2025-11-04 19:00: 0.9960
2025-11-04 20:00: 0.0040
2025-11-04 20:00: 0.9960
2025-11-04 21:00: 0.0040
2025-11-04 21:00: 0.9960
2025-11-04 22:00: 0.0040
2025-11-04 22:00: 0.9960
2025-11-04 23:00: 0.0050
2025-11-04 23:00: 0.9950
2025-11-05 00:00: 0.0050
2025-11-05 00:00: 0.9950
2025-11-05 01:00: 0.0050
2025-11-05 01:00: 0.9950
2025-11-05 02:00: 0.0055
2025-11-05 02:00: 0.9945
2025-11-05 03:00: 0.0055
2025-11-05 03:00: 0.9945
2025-11-05 04:00: 0.0060
2025-11-05 04:00: 0.9940
2025-11-05 05:00: 0.0055
2025-11-05 05:00: 0.9945
2025-11-05 06:00: 0.0055
2025-11-05 06:00: 0.9945
2025-11-05 07:00: 0.0065
2025-11-05 07:00: 0.9935
2025-11-05 08:00: 0.0065
2025-11-05 08:00: 0.9935
2025-11-05 09:00: 0.0065
2025-11-05 09:00: 0.9935
2025-11-05 10:00: 0.0065
2025-11-05 10:00: 0.9935
2025-11-05 11:00: 0.0065
2025-11-05 11:00: 0.9935
2025-11-05 12:00: 0.0065
2025-11-05 12:00: 0.9935
2025-11-05 13:00: 0.0065
2025-11-05 13:00: 0.9935
2025-11-05 14:00: 0.0065
2025-11-05 14:00: 0.9935
2025-11-05 15:00: 0.0075
2025-11-05 15:00: 0.9925
Trade Summary: No trades available

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 561256
Question: Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 1111423.360292
Price History:
2025-11-05 20:00: 0.9915
2025-11-05 21:00: 0.0085
2025-11-05 21:00: 0.9915
2025-11-05 22:00: 0.0085
2025-11-05 22:00: 0.9915
2025-11-05 23:00: 0.0085
2025-11-05 23:00: 0.9915
2025-11-06 00:00: 0.0085
2025-11-06 00:00: 0.9915
2025-11-06 01:00: 0.0085
2025-11-06 01:00: 0.9915
2025-11-06 02:00: 0.0085
2025-11-06 02:00: 0.9915
2025-11-06 03:00: 0.0085
2025-11-06 03:00: 0.9915
2025-11-06 04:00: 0.0085
2025-11-06 04:00: 0.9915
2025-11-06 05:00: 0.0085
2025-11-06 05:00: 0.9915
2025-11-06 06:00: 0.0085
2025-11-06 06:00: 0.9915
2025-11-06 07:00: 0.0085
2025-11-06 07:00: 0.9915
2025-11-06 08:00: 0.0075
2025-11-06 08:00: 0.9925
2025-11-06 09:00: 0.0075
2025-11-06 09:00: 0.9925
2025-11-06 10:00: 0.0075
2025-11-06 10:00: 0.9925
2025-11-06 11:00: 0.0075
2025-11-06 11:00: 0.9925
2025-11-06 12:00: 0.0075
2025-11-06 12:00: 0.9925
2025-11-06 13:00: 0.0075
2025-11-06 13:00: 0.9925
2025-11-06 14:00: 0.0075
2025-11-06 14:00: 0.9925
2025-11-06 15:00: 0.0075
2025-11-06 15:00: 0.9925
2025-11-06 16:00: 0.0075
2025-11-06 16:00: 0.9925
2025-11-06 17:00: 0.0075
2025-11-06 17:00: 0.9925
2025-11-06 18:00: 0.0075
2025-11-06 18:00: 0.9925
2025-11-06 19:00: 0.0075
2025-11-06 19:00: 0.9925
2025-11-06 20:00: 0.0075
2025-11-06 20:00: 0.9925
2025-11-06 21:00: 0.0075
Trade Summary: No trades available

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 561256
Question: Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 1111423.360292
Price History:
2025-11-07 02:00: 0.0075
2025-11-07 02:00: 0.9925
2025-11-07 03:00: 0.0075
2025-11-07 03:00: 0.9925
2025-11-07 04:00: 0.0075
2025-11-07 04:00: 0.9925
2025-11-07 05:00: 0.0075
2025-11-07 05:00: 0.9925
2025-11-07 06:00: 0.0075
2025-11-07 06:00: 0.9925
2025-11-07 07:00: 0.0075
2025-11-07 07:00: 0.9925
2025-11-07 08:00: 0.0075
2025-11-07 08:00: 0.9925
2025-11-07 09:00: 0.0075
2025-11-07 09:00: 0.9925
2025-11-07 10:00: 0.0075
2025-11-07 10:00: 0.9925
2025-11-07 11:00: 0.0075
2025-11-07 11:00: 0.9925
2025-11-07 12:00: 0.0075
2025-11-07 12:00: 0.9925
2025-11-07 13:00: 0.0075
2025-11-07 13:00: 0.9925
2025-11-07 14:00: 0.0075
2025-11-07 14:00: 0.9925
2025-11-07 15:00: 0.0075
2025-11-07 15:00: 0.9925
2025-11-07 16:00: 0.0075
2025-11-07 16:00: 0.9925
2025-11-07 17:00: 0.0075
2025-11-07 17:00: 0.9925
2025-11-07 18:00: 0.0075
2025-11-07 18:00: 0.9925
2025-11-07 19:00: 0.0075
2025-11-07 19:00: 0.9925
2025-11-07 20:00: 0.0075
2025-11-07 20:00: 0.9925
2025-11-07 21:00: 0.0075
2025-11-07 21:00: 0.9925
2025-11-07 22:00: 0.0075
2025-11-07 22:00: 0.9925
2025-11-07 23:00: 0.0075
2025-11-07 23:00: 0.9925
2025-11-08 00:00: 0.0075
2025-11-08 00:00: 0.9925
2025-11-08 01:00: 0.0075
2025-11-08 01:00: 0.9925
2025-11-08 02:00: 0.0075
2025-11-08 02:00: 0.9925
Trade Summary: No trades available

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 561256
Question: Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 1111423.360292
Price History:
2025-11-08 07:00: 0.9945
2025-11-08 08:00: 0.0055
2025-11-08 08:00: 0.9945
2025-11-08 09:00: 0.0055
2025-11-08 09:00: 0.9945
2025-11-08 10:00: 0.0055
2025-11-08 10:00: 0.9945
2025-11-08 11:00: 0.0055
2025-11-08 11:00: 0.9945
2025-11-08 12:00: 0.0050
2025-11-08 12:00: 0.9950
2025-11-08 13:00: 0.0035
2025-11-08 13:00: 0.9965
2025-11-08 14:00: 0.0035
2025-11-08 14:00: 0.9965
2025-11-08 15:00: 0.0035
2025-11-08 15:00: 0.9965
2025-11-08 16:00: 0.0035
2025-11-08 16:00: 0.9965
2025-11-08 17:00: 0.0045
2025-11-08 17:00: 0.9955
2025-11-08 18:00: 0.0045
2025-11-08 18:00: 0.9955
2025-11-08 19:00: 0.0045
2025-11-08 19:00: 0.9955
2025-11-08 20:00: 0.0045
2025-11-08 20:00: 0.9955
2025-11-08 21:00: 0.0045
2025-11-08 21:00: 0.9955
2025-11-08 22:00: 0.0045
2025-11-08 22:00: 0.9955
2025-11-08 23:00: 0.0045
2025-11-08 23:00: 0.9955
2025-11-09 00:00: 0.0045
2025-11-09 00:00: 0.9955
2025-11-09 01:00: 0.0045
2025-11-09 01:00: 0.9955
2025-11-09 02:00: 0.0045
2025-11-09 02:00: 0.9955
2025-11-09 03:00: 0.0045
2025-11-09 03:00: 0.9955
2025-11-09 04:00: 0.0045
2025-11-09 04:00: 0.9955
2025-11-09 05:00: 0.0045
2025-11-09 05:00: 0.9955
2025-11-09 06:00: 0.0045
2025-11-09 06:00: 0.9955
2025-11-09 07:00: 0.0045
2025-11-09 07:00: 0.9955
2025-11-09 08:00: 0.0045
Trade Summary: No trades available

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 561256
Question: Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 1111423.360292
Price History:
2025-11-09 13:00: 0.0055
2025-11-09 13:00: 0.9945
2025-11-09 14:00: 0.0055
2025-11-09 14:00: 0.9945
2025-11-09 15:00: 0.0055
2025-11-09 15:00: 0.9945
2025-11-09 16:00: 0.0055
2025-11-09 16:00: 0.9945
2025-11-09 17:00: 0.0055
2025-11-09 17:00: 0.9945
2025-11-09 18:00: 0.0055
2025-11-09 18:00: 0.9945
2025-11-09 19:00: 0.0055
2025-11-09 19:00: 0.9945
2025-11-09 20:00: 0.0055
2025-11-09 20:00: 0.9945
2025-11-09 21:00: 0.0055
2025-11-09 21:00: 0.9945
2025-11-09 22:00: 0.0055
2025-11-09 22:00: 0.9945
2025-11-09 23:00: 0.0055
2025-11-09 23:00: 0.9945
2025-11-10 00:00: 0.0055
2025-11-10 00:00: 0.9945
2025-11-10 01:00: 0.0055
2025-11-10 01:00: 0.9945
2025-11-10 02:00: 0.0055
2025-11-10 02:00: 0.9945
2025-11-10 03:00: 0.0055
2025-11-10 03:00: 0.9945
2025-11-10 04:00: 0.0055
2025-11-10 04:00: 0.9945
2025-11-10 05:00: 0.0055
2025-11-10 05:00: 0.9945
2025-11-10 06:00: 0.0055
2025-11-10 06:00: 0.9945
2025-11-10 07:00: 0.0055
2025-11-10 07:00: 0.9945
2025-11-10 08:00: 0.0055
2025-11-10 08:00: 0.9945
2025-11-10 09:00: 0.0055
2025-11-10 09:00: 0.9945
2025-11-10 10:00: 0.0055
2025-11-10 10:00: 0.9945
2025-11-10 11:00: 0.0055
2025-11-10 11:00: 0.9945
2025-11-10 12:00: 0.0055
2025-11-10 12:00: 0.9945
2025-11-10 13:00: 0.0045
2025-11-10 13:00: 0.9955
Trade Summary: No trades available

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 561256
Question: Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 1111423.360292
Price History:
2025-11-10 18:00: 0.9955
2025-11-10 19:00: 0.0045
2025-11-10 19:00: 0.9955
2025-11-10 20:00: 0.0045
2025-11-10 20:00: 0.9955
2025-11-10 21:00: 0.0045
2025-11-10 21:00: 0.9955
2025-11-10 22:00: 0.0045
2025-11-10 22:00: 0.9955
2025-11-10 23:00: 0.0045
2025-11-10 23:00: 0.9955
2025-11-11 00:00: 0.0045
2025-11-11 00:00: 0.9955
2025-11-11 01:00: 0.0045
2025-11-11 01:00: 0.9955
2025-11-11 02:00: 0.0045
2025-11-11 02:00: 0.9955
2025-11-11 03:00: 0.0045
2025-11-11 03:00: 0.9955
2025-11-11 04:00: 0.0045
2025-11-11 04:00: 0.9955
2025-11-11 05:00: 0.0045
2025-11-11 05:00: 0.9955
2025-11-11 06:00: 0.0045
2025-11-11 06:00: 0.9955
2025-11-11 07:00: 0.0045
2025-11-11 07:00: 0.9955
2025-11-11 08:00: 0.0045
2025-11-11 08:00: 0.9955
2025-11-11 09:00: 0.0045
2025-11-11 09:00: 0.9955
2025-11-11 10:00: 0.0045
2025-11-11 10:00: 0.9955
2025-11-11 11:00: 0.0045
2025-11-11 11:00: 0.9955
2025-11-11 12:00: 0.0045
2025-11-11 12:00: 0.9955
2025-11-11 13:00: 0.0045
2025-11-11 13:00: 0.9955
2025-11-11 14:00: 0.0045
2025-11-11 14:00: 0.9955
2025-11-11 15:00: 0.0045
2025-11-11 15:00: 0.9955
2025-11-11 16:00: 0.0045
2025-11-11 16:00: 0.9955
2025-11-11 17:00: 0.0045
2025-11-11 17:00: 0.9955
2025-11-11 18:00: 0.0045
2025-11-11 18:00: 0.9955
2025-11-11 19:00: 0.0045
Trade Summary: No trades available

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 561256
Question: Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 1111423.360292
Price History:
2025-11-12 00:00: 0.0045
2025-11-12 00:00: 0.9955
2025-11-12 01:00: 0.0045
2025-11-12 01:00: 0.9955
2025-11-12 02:00: 0.0045
2025-11-12 02:00: 0.9955
2025-11-12 03:00: 0.0045
2025-11-12 03:00: 0.9955
2025-11-12 04:00: 0.0045
2025-11-12 04:00: 0.9955
2025-11-12 05:00: 0.0045
2025-11-12 05:00: 0.9955
2025-11-12 06:00: 0.0045
2025-11-12 06:00: 0.9955
2025-11-12 07:00: 0.0045
2025-11-12 07:00: 0.9955
2025-11-12 08:00: 0.0045
2025-11-12 08:00: 0.9955
2025-11-12 09:00: 0.0045
2025-11-12 09:00: 0.9955
2025-11-12 10:00: 0.0045
2025-11-12 10:00: 0.9955
2025-11-12 11:00: 0.0045
2025-11-12 11:00: 0.9955
2025-11-12 12:00: 0.0045
2025-11-12 12:00: 0.9955
2025-11-12 13:00: 0.0045
2025-11-12 13:00: 0.9955
2025-11-12 14:00: 0.0045
2025-11-12 14:00: 0.9955
2025-11-12 15:00: 0.0045
2025-11-12 15:00: 0.9955
2025-11-12 16:00: 0.0045
2025-11-12 16:00: 0.9955
2025-11-12 17:00: 0.0045
2025-11-12 17:00: 0.9955
2025-11-12 18:00: 0.0045
2025-11-12 18:00: 0.9955
2025-11-12 19:00: 0.0045
2025-11-12 19:00: 0.9955
2025-11-12 20:00: 0.0055
2025-11-12 20:00: 0.9945
2025-11-12 21:00: 0.0055
2025-11-12 21:00: 0.9945
2025-11-12 22:00: 0.0055
2025-11-12 22:00: 0.9945
2025-11-12 23:00: 0.0055
2025-11-12 23:00: 0.9945
2025-11-13 00:00: 0.0055
2025-11-13 00:00: 0.9945
Trade Summary: No trades available

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 561256
Question: Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 1111423.360292
Price History:
2025-11-13 05:00: 0.9945
2025-11-13 06:00: 0.0060
2025-11-13 06:00: 0.9940
2025-11-13 07:00: 0.0060
2025-11-13 07:00: 0.9940
2025-11-13 08:00: 0.0060
2025-11-13 08:00: 0.9940
2025-11-13 09:00: 0.0060
2025-11-13 09:00: 0.9940
2025-11-13 10:00: 0.0060
2025-11-13 10:00: 0.9940
2025-11-13 11:00: 0.0055
2025-11-13 11:00: 0.9945
2025-11-13 12:00: 0.0055
2025-11-13 12:00: 0.9945
2025-11-13 13:00: 0.0055
2025-11-13 13:00: 0.9945
2025-11-13 14:00: 0.0055
2025-11-13 14:00: 0.9945
2025-11-13 15:00: 0.0055
2025-11-13 15:00: 0.9945
2025-11-13 16:00: 0.0055
2025-11-13 16:00: 0.9945
2025-11-13 17:00: 0.0045
2025-11-13 17:00: 0.9955
2025-11-13 18:00: 0.0045
2025-11-13 18:00: 0.9955
2025-11-13 19:00: 0.0045
2025-11-13 19:00: 0.9955
2025-11-13 20:00: 0.0055
2025-11-13 20:00: 0.9945
2025-11-13 21:00: 0.0055
2025-11-13 21:00: 0.9945
2025-11-13 22:00: 0.0055
2025-11-13 22:00: 0.9945
2025-11-13 23:00: 0.0055
2025-11-13 23:00: 0.9945
2025-11-14 00:00: 0.0060
2025-11-14 00:00: 0.9940
2025-11-14 01:00: 0.0060
2025-11-14 01:00: 0.9940
2025-11-14 02:00: 0.0060
2025-11-14 02:00: 0.9940
2025-11-14 03:00: 0.0060
2025-11-14 03:00: 0.9940
2025-11-14 04:00: 0.0055
2025-11-14 04:00: 0.9945
2025-11-14 05:00: 0.0055
2025-11-14 05:00: 0.9945
2025-11-14 06:00: 0.0055
Trade Summary: No trades available

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 561256
Question: Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 1111423.360292
Price History:
2025-11-14 11:00: 0.0065
2025-11-14 11:00: 0.9935
2025-11-14 12:00: 0.0065
2025-11-14 12:00: 0.9935
2025-11-14 13:00: 0.0065
2025-11-14 13:00: 0.9935
2025-11-14 14:00: 0.0065
2025-11-14 14:00: 0.9935
2025-11-14 15:00: 0.0065
2025-11-14 15:00: 0.9935
2025-11-14 16:00: 0.0065
2025-11-14 16:00: 0.9935
2025-11-14 17:00: 0.0065
2025-11-14 17:00: 0.9935
2025-11-14 18:00: 0.0065
2025-11-14 18:00: 0.9935
2025-11-14 19:00: 0.0065
2025-11-14 19:00: 0.9935
2025-11-14 20:00: 0.0065
2025-11-14 20:00: 0.9935
2025-11-14 21:00: 0.0065
2025-11-14 21:00: 0.9935
2025-11-14 22:00: 0.0065
2025-11-14 22:00: 0.9935
2025-11-14 23:00: 0.0065
2025-11-14 23:00: 0.9935
2025-11-15 00:00: 0.0065
2025-11-15 00:00: 0.9935
2025-11-15 01:00: 0.0065
2025-11-15 01:00: 0.9935
2025-11-15 02:00: 0.0065
2025-11-15 02:00: 0.9935
2025-11-15 03:00: 0.0065
2025-11-15 03:00: 0.9935
2025-11-15 04:00: 0.0065
2025-11-15 04:00: 0.9935
2025-11-15 05:00: 0.0065
2025-11-15 05:00: 0.9935
2025-11-15 06:00: 0.0065
2025-11-15 06:00: 0.9935
2025-11-15 07:00: 0.0065
2025-11-15 07:00: 0.9935
2025-11-15 08:00: 0.0065
2025-11-15 08:00: 0.9935
2025-11-15 09:00: 0.0065
2025-11-15 09:00: 0.9935
2025-11-15 10:00: 0.0065
2025-11-15 10:00: 0.9935
2025-11-15 11:00: 0.0065
2025-11-15 11:00: 0.9935
Trade Summary: No trades available

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 561256
Question: Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 1111423.360292
Price History:
2025-11-15 16:00: 0.9935
2025-11-15 17:00: 0.0065
2025-11-15 17:00: 0.9935
2025-11-15 18:00: 0.0065
2025-11-15 18:00: 0.9935
2025-11-15 19:00: 0.0065
2025-11-15 19:00: 0.9935
2025-11-15 20:00: 0.0065
2025-11-15 20:00: 0.9935
2025-11-15 21:00: 0.0065
2025-11-15 21:00: 0.9935
2025-11-15 22:00: 0.0065
2025-11-15 22:00: 0.9935
2025-11-15 23:00: 0.0065
2025-11-15 23:00: 0.9935
2025-11-16 00:00: 0.0065
2025-11-16 00:00: 0.9935
2025-11-16 01:00: 0.0065
2025-11-16 01:00: 0.9935
2025-11-16 02:00: 0.0065
2025-11-16 02:00: 0.9935
2025-11-16 03:00: 0.0065
2025-11-16 03:00: 0.9935
2025-11-16 04:00: 0.0065
2025-11-16 04:00: 0.9935
2025-11-16 05:00: 0.0065
2025-11-16 05:00: 0.9935
2025-11-16 06:00: 0.0065
2025-11-16 06:00: 0.9935
2025-11-16 07:00: 0.0065
2025-11-16 07:00: 0.9935
2025-11-16 08:00: 0.0065
2025-11-16 08:00: 0.9935
2025-11-16 09:00: 0.0065
2025-11-16 09:00: 0.9935
2025-11-16 10:00: 0.0065
2025-11-16 10:00: 0.9935
2025-11-16 11:00: 0.0065
2025-11-16 11:00: 0.9935
2025-11-16 12:00: 0.0065
2025-11-16 12:00: 0.9935
2025-11-16 13:00: 0.0065
2025-11-16 13:00: 0.9935
2025-11-16 14:00: 0.0065
2025-11-16 14:00: 0.9935
2025-11-16 15:00: 0.0065
2025-11-16 15:00: 0.9935
2025-11-16 16:00: 0.0065
2025-11-16 16:00: 0.9935
2025-11-16 17:00: 0.0065
Trade Summary: No trades available

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 561256
Question: Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 1111423.360292
Price History:
2025-11-16 22:00: 0.0065
2025-11-16 22:00: 0.9935
2025-11-16 23:00: 0.0065
2025-11-16 23:00: 0.9935
2025-11-17 00:00: 0.0065
2025-11-17 00:00: 0.9935
2025-11-17 01:00: 0.0075
2025-11-17 01:00: 0.9925
2025-11-17 02:00: 0.0075
2025-11-17 02:00: 0.9925
2025-11-17 03:00: 0.0070
2025-11-17 03:00: 0.9930
2025-11-17 04:00: 0.0070
2025-11-17 04:00: 0.9930
2025-11-17 05:00: 0.0070
2025-11-17 05:00: 0.9930
2025-11-17 06:00: 0.0075
2025-11-17 06:00: 0.9925
2025-11-17 07:00: 0.0075
2025-11-17 07:00: 0.9925
2025-11-17 08:00: 0.0075
2025-11-17 08:00: 0.9925
2025-11-17 09:00: 0.0075
2025-11-17 09:00: 0.9925
2025-11-17 10:00: 0.0075
2025-11-17 10:00: 0.9925
2025-11-17 11:00: 0.0075
2025-11-17 11:00: 0.9925
2025-11-17 12:00: 0.0070
2025-11-17 12:00: 0.9930
2025-11-17 13:00: 0.0070
2025-11-17 13:00: 0.9930
2025-11-17 14:00: 0.0065
2025-11-17 14:00: 0.9935
2025-11-17 15:00: 0.0065
2025-11-17 15:00: 0.9935
2025-11-17 16:00: 0.0065
2025-11-17 16:00: 0.9935
2025-11-17 17:00: 0.0065
2025-11-17 17:00: 0.9935
2025-11-17 18:00: 0.0065
2025-11-17 18:00: 0.9935
2025-11-17 19:00: 0.0065
2025-11-17 19:00: 0.9935
2025-11-17 20:00: 0.0060
2025-11-17 20:00: 0.9940
2025-11-17 21:00: 0.0065
2025-11-17 21:00: 0.9935
2025-11-17 22:00: 0.0065
2025-11-17 22:00: 0.9935
Trade Summary: No trades available

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 561256
Question: Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 1111423.360292
Price History:
2025-11-18 03:00: 0.9935
2025-11-18 04:00: 0.0075
2025-11-18 04:00: 0.9925
2025-11-18 05:00: 0.0075
2025-11-18 05:00: 0.9925
2025-11-18 06:00: 0.0085
2025-11-18 06:00: 0.9915
2025-11-18 07:00: 0.0085
2025-11-18 07:00: 0.9915
2025-11-18 08:00: 0.0085
2025-11-18 08:00: 0.9915
2025-11-18 09:00: 0.0075
2025-11-18 09:00: 0.9925
2025-11-18 10:00: 0.0080
2025-11-18 10:00: 0.9920
2025-11-18 11:00: 0.0080
2025-11-18 11:00: 0.9920
2025-11-18 12:00: 0.0080
2025-11-18 12:00: 0.9920
2025-11-18 13:00: 0.0080
2025-11-18 13:00: 0.9920
2025-11-18 14:00: 0.0080
2025-11-18 14:00: 0.9920
2025-11-18 15:00: 0.0080
2025-11-18 15:00: 0.9920
2025-11-18 16:00: 0.0080
2025-11-18 16:00: 0.9920
2025-11-18 17:00: 0.0080
2025-11-18 17:00: 0.9920
2025-11-18 18:00: 0.0080
2025-11-18 18:00: 0.9920
2025-11-18 19:00: 0.0075
2025-11-18 19:00: 0.9925
2025-11-18 20:00: 0.0075
2025-11-18 20:00: 0.9925
2025-11-18 21:00: 0.0075
2025-11-18 21:00: 0.9925
2025-11-18 22:00: 0.0075
2025-11-18 22:00: 0.9925
2025-11-18 23:00: 0.0075
2025-11-18 23:00: 0.9925
2025-11-19 00:00: 0.0075
2025-11-19 00:00: 0.9925
2025-11-19 01:00: 0.0075
2025-11-19 01:00: 0.9925
2025-11-19 02:00: 0.0075
2025-11-19 02:00: 0.9925
2025-11-19 03:00: 0.0070
2025-11-19 03:00: 0.9930
2025-11-19 04:00: 0.0070
Trade Summary: No trades available

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 561256
Question: Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 1111423.360292
Price History:
2025-11-19 09:00: 0.0075
2025-11-19 09:00: 0.9925
2025-11-19 10:00: 0.0075
2025-11-19 10:00: 0.9925
2025-11-19 11:00: 0.0075
2025-11-19 11:00: 0.9925
2025-11-19 12:00: 0.0075
2025-11-19 12:00: 0.9925
2025-11-19 13:00: 0.0075
2025-11-19 13:00: 0.9925
2025-11-19 14:00: 0.0070
2025-11-19 14:00: 0.9930
2025-11-19 15:00: 0.0070
2025-11-19 15:00: 0.9930
2025-11-19 16:00: 0.0075
2025-11-19 16:00: 0.9925
2025-11-19 17:00: 0.0070
2025-11-19 17:00: 0.9930
2025-11-19 18:00: 0.0070
2025-11-19 18:00: 0.9930
2025-11-19 19:00: 0.0070
2025-11-19 19:00: 0.9930
2025-11-19 20:00: 0.0070
2025-11-19 20:00: 0.9930
2025-11-19 21:00: 0.0070
2025-11-19 21:00: 0.9930
2025-11-19 22:00: 0.0070
2025-11-19 22:00: 0.9930
2025-11-19 23:00: 0.0075
2025-11-19 23:00: 0.9925
2025-11-20 00:00: 0.0065
2025-11-20 00:00: 0.9935
2025-11-20 01:00: 0.0065
2025-11-20 01:00: 0.9935
2025-11-20 02:00: 0.0065
2025-11-20 02:00: 0.9935
2025-11-20 03:00: 0.0070
2025-11-20 03:00: 0.9930
2025-11-20 04:00: 0.0070
2025-11-20 04:00: 0.9930
2025-11-20 05:00: 0.0075
2025-11-20 05:00: 0.9925
2025-11-20 06:00: 0.0065
2025-11-20 06:00: 0.9935
2025-11-20 07:00: 0.0075
2025-11-20 07:00: 0.9925
2025-11-20 08:00: 0.0075
2025-11-20 08:00: 0.9925
2025-11-20 09:00: 0.0075
2025-11-20 09:00: 0.9925
Trade Summary: No trades available

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 561256
Question: Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Volume: 1111423.360292
Price History:
2025-11-04 15:00: 0.5000
2025-11-04 15:00: 0.5000
2025-11-04 16:00: 0.0040
2025-11-04 16:00: 0.9960
2025-11-04 17:00: 0.0040
2025-11-04 17:00: 0.9960
2025-11-04 18:00: 0.0040
2025-11-04 18:00: 0.9960
2025-11-04 19:00: 0.0040
2025-11-04 19:00: 0.9960
2025-11-04 20:00: 0.0040
2025-11-04 20:00: 0.9960
2025-11-04 21:00: 0.0040
2025-11-04 21:00: 0.9960
2025-11-04 22:00: 0.0040
2025-11-04 22:00: 0.9960
2025-11-04 23:00: 0.0050
2025-11-04 23:00: 0.9950
2025-11-05 00:00: 0.0050
2025-11-05 00:00: 0.9950
2025-11-05 01:00: 0.0050
2025-11-05 01:00: 0.9950
2025-11-05 02:00: 0.0055
2025-11-05 02:00: 0.9945
2025-11-05 03:00: 0.0055
2025-11-05 03:00: 0.9945
2025-11-05 04:00: 0.0060
2025-11-05 04:00: 0.9940
2025-11-05 05:00: 0.0055
2025-11-05 05:00: 0.9945
Trade Summary: No trades available
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 561256
Question: Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Volume: 1111423.360292
Price History:
2025-11-05 20:00: 0.9915
2025-11-05 21:00: 0.0085
2025-11-05 21:00: 0.9915
2025-11-05 22:00: 0.0085
2025-11-05 22:00: 0.9915
2025-11-05 23:00: 0.0085
2025-11-05 23:00: 0.9915
2025-11-06 00:00: 0.0085
2025-11-06 00:00: 0.9915
2025-11-06 01:00: 0.0085
2025-11-06 01:00: 0.9915
2025-11-06 02:00: 0.0085
2025-11-06 02:00: 0.9915
2025-11-06 03:00: 0.0085
2025-11-06 03:00: 0.9915
2025-11-06 04:00: 0.0085
2025-11-06 04:00: 0.9915
2025-11-06 05:00: 0.0085
2025-11-06 05:00: 0.9915
2025-11-06 06:00: 0.0085
2025-11-06 06:00: 0.9915
2025-11-06 07:00: 0.0085
2025-11-06 07:00: 0.9915
2025-11-06 08:00: 0.0075
2025-11-06 08:00: 0.9925
2025-11-06 09:00: 0.0075
2025-11-06 09:00: 0.9925
2025-11-06 10:00: 0.0075
2025-11-06 10:00: 0.9925
2025-11-06 11:00: 0.0075
Trade Summary: No trades available
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 561256
Question: Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Volume: 1111423.360292
Price History:
2025-11-07 02:00: 0.0075
2025-11-07 02:00: 0.9925
2025-11-07 03:00: 0.0075
2025-11-07 03:00: 0.9925
2025-11-07 04:00: 0.0075
2025-11-07 04:00: 0.9925
2025-11-07 05:00: 0.0075
2025-11-07 05:00: 0.9925
2025-11-07 06:00: 0.0075
2025-11-07 06:00: 0.9925
2025-11-07 07:00: 0.0075
2025-11-07 07:00: 0.9925
2025-11-07 08:00: 0.0075
2025-11-07 08:00: 0.9925
2025-11-07 09:00: 0.0075
2025-11-07 09:00: 0.9925
2025-11-07 10:00: 0.0075
2025-11-07 10:00: 0.9925
2025-11-07 11:00: 0.0075
2025-11-07 11:00: 0.9925
2025-11-07 12:00: 0.0075
2025-11-07 12:00: 0.9925
2025-11-07 13:00: 0.0075
2025-11-07 13:00: 0.9925
2025-11-07 14:00: 0.0075
2025-11-07 14:00: 0.9925
2025-11-07 15:00: 0.0075
2025-11-07 15:00: 0.9925
2025-11-07 16:00: 0.0075
2025-11-07 16:00: 0.9925
Trade Summary: No trades available
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 561256
Question: Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Volume: 1111423.360292
Price History:
2025-11-08 07:00: 0.9945
2025-11-08 08:00: 0.0055
2025-11-08 08:00: 0.9945
2025-11-08 09:00: 0.0055
2025-11-08 09:00: 0.9945
2025-11-08 10:00: 0.0055
2025-11-08 10:00: 0.9945
2025-11-08 11:00: 0.0055
2025-11-08 11:00: 0.9945
2025-11-08 12:00: 0.0050
2025-11-08 12:00: 0.9950
2025-11-08 13:00: 0.0035
2025-11-08 13:00: 0.9965
2025-11-08 14:00: 0.0035
2025-11-08 14:00: 0.9965
2025-11-08 15:00: 0.0035
2025-11-08 15:00: 0.9965
2025-11-08 16:00: 0.0035
2025-11-08 16:00: 0.9965
2025-11-08 17:00: 0.0045
2025-11-08 17:00: 0.9955
2025-11-08 18:00: 0.0045
2025-11-08 18:00: 0.9955
2025-11-08 19:00: 0.0045
2025-11-08 19:00: 0.9955
2025-11-08 20:00: 0.0045
2025-11-08 20:00: 0.9955
2025-11-08 21:00: 0.0045
2025-11-08 21:00: 0.9955
2025-11-08 22:00: 0.0045
Trade Summary: No trades available
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 561256
Question: Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Volume: 1111423.360292
Price History:
2025-11-09 13:00: 0.0055
2025-11-09 13:00: 0.9945
2025-11-09 14:00: 0.0055
2025-11-09 14:00: 0.9945
2025-11-09 15:00: 0.0055
2025-11-09 15:00: 0.9945
2025-11-09 16:00: 0.0055
2025-11-09 16:00: 0.9945
2025-11-09 17:00: 0.0055
2025-11-09 17:00: 0.9945
2025-11-09 18:00: 0.0055
2025-11-09 18:00: 0.9945
2025-11-09 19:00: 0.0055
2025-11-09 19:00: 0.9945
2025-11-09 20:00: 0.0055
2025-11-09 20:00: 0.9945
2025-11-09 21:00: 0.0055
2025-11-09 21:00: 0.9945
2025-11-09 22:00: 0.0055
2025-11-09 22:00: 0.9945
2025-11-09 23:00: 0.0055
2025-11-09 23:00: 0.9945
2025-11-10 00:00: 0.0055
2025-11-10 00:00: 0.9945
2025-11-10 01:00: 0.0055
2025-11-10 01:00: 0.9945
2025-11-10 02:00: 0.0055
2025-11-10 02:00: 0.9945
2025-11-10 03:00: 0.0055
2025-11-10 03:00: 0.9945
Trade Summary: No trades available
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 561256
Question: Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Volume: 1111423.360292
Price History:
2025-11-10 18:00: 0.9955
2025-11-10 19:00: 0.0045
2025-11-10 19:00: 0.9955
2025-11-10 20:00: 0.0045
2025-11-10 20:00: 0.9955
2025-11-10 21:00: 0.0045
2025-11-10 21:00: 0.9955
2025-11-10 22:00: 0.0045
2025-11-10 22:00: 0.9955
2025-11-10 23:00: 0.0045
2025-11-10 23:00: 0.9955
2025-11-11 00:00: 0.0045
2025-11-11 00:00: 0.9955
2025-11-11 01:00: 0.0045
2025-11-11 01:00: 0.9955
2025-11-11 02:00: 0.0045
2025-11-11 02:00: 0.9955
2025-11-11 03:00: 0.0045
2025-11-11 03:00: 0.9955
2025-11-11 04:00: 0.0045
2025-11-11 04:00: 0.9955
2025-11-11 05:00: 0.0045
2025-11-11 05:00: 0.9955
2025-11-11 06:00: 0.0045
2025-11-11 06:00: 0.9955
2025-11-11 07:00: 0.0045
2025-11-11 07:00: 0.9955
2025-11-11 08:00: 0.0045
2025-11-11 08:00: 0.9955
2025-11-11 09:00: 0.0045
Trade Summary: No trades available
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 561256
Question: Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Volume: 1111423.360292
Price History:
2025-11-12 00:00: 0.0045
2025-11-12 00:00: 0.9955
2025-11-12 01:00: 0.0045
2025-11-12 01:00: 0.9955
2025-11-12 02:00: 0.0045
2025-11-12 02:00: 0.9955
2025-11-12 03:00: 0.0045
2025-11-12 03:00: 0.9955
2025-11-12 04:00: 0.0045
2025-11-12 04:00: 0.9955
2025-11-12 05:00: 0.0045
2025-11-12 05:00: 0.9955
2025-11-12 06:00: 0.0045
2025-11-12 06:00: 0.9955
2025-11-12 07:00: 0.0045
2025-11-12 07:00: 0.9955
2025-11-12 08:00: 0.0045
2025-11-12 08:00: 0.9955
2025-11-12 09:00: 0.0045
2025-11-12 09:00: 0.9955
2025-11-12 10:00: 0.0045
2025-11-12 10:00: 0.9955
2025-11-12 11:00: 0.0045
2025-11-12 11:00: 0.9955
2025-11-12 12:00: 0.0045
2025-11-12 12:00: 0.9955
2025-11-12 13:00: 0.0045
2025-11-12 13:00: 0.9955
2025-11-12 14:00: 0.0045
2025-11-12 14:00: 0.9955
Trade Summary: No trades available
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 561256
Question: Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Volume: 1111423.360292
Price History:
2025-11-13 05:00: 0.9945
2025-11-13 06:00: 0.0060
2025-11-13 06:00: 0.9940
2025-11-13 07:00: 0.0060
2025-11-13 07:00: 0.9940
2025-11-13 08:00: 0.0060
2025-11-13 08:00: 0.9940
2025-11-13 09:00: 0.0060
2025-11-13 09:00: 0.9940
2025-11-13 10:00: 0.0060
2025-11-13 10:00: 0.9940
2025-11-13 11:00: 0.0055
2025-11-13 11:00: 0.9945
2025-11-13 12:00: 0.0055
2025-11-13 12:00: 0.9945
2025-11-13 13:00: 0.0055
2025-11-13 13:00: 0.9945
2025-11-13 14:00: 0.0055
2025-11-13 14:00: 0.9945
2025-11-13 15:00: 0.0055
2025-11-13 15:00: 0.9945
2025-11-13 16:00: 0.0055
2025-11-13 16:00: 0.9945
2025-11-13 17:00: 0.0045
2025-11-13 17:00: 0.9955
2025-11-13 18:00: 0.0045
2025-11-13 18:00: 0.9955
2025-11-13 19:00: 0.0045
2025-11-13 19:00: 0.9955
2025-11-13 20:00: 0.0055
Trade Summary: No trades available
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 561256
Question: Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Volume: 1111423.360292
Price History:
2025-11-14 11:00: 0.0065
2025-11-14 11:00: 0.9935
2025-11-14 12:00: 0.0065
2025-11-14 12:00: 0.9935
2025-11-14 13:00: 0.0065
2025-11-14 13:00: 0.9935
2025-11-14 14:00: 0.0065
2025-11-14 14:00: 0.9935
2025-11-14 15:00: 0.0065
2025-11-14 15:00: 0.9935
2025-11-14 16:00: 0.0065
2025-11-14 16:00: 0.9935
2025-11-14 17:00: 0.0065
2025-11-14 17:00: 0.9935
2025-11-14 18:00: 0.0065
2025-11-14 18:00: 0.9935
2025-11-14 19:00: 0.0065
2025-11-14 19:00: 0.9935
2025-11-14 20:00: 0.0065
2025-11-14 20:00: 0.9935
2025-11-14 21:00: 0.0065
2025-11-14 21:00: 0.9935
2025-11-14 22:00: 0.0065
2025-11-14 22:00: 0.9935
2025-11-14 23:00: 0.0065
2025-11-14 23:00: 0.9935
2025-11-15 00:00: 0.0065
2025-11-15 00:00: 0.9935
2025-11-15 01:00: 0.0065
2025-11-15 01:00: 0.9935
Trade Summary: No trades available
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 561256
Question: Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Volume: 1111423.360292
Price History:
2025-11-15 16:00: 0.9935
2025-11-15 17:00: 0.0065
2025-11-15 17:00: 0.9935
2025-11-15 18:00: 0.0065
2025-11-15 18:00: 0.9935
2025-11-15 19:00: 0.0065
2025-11-15 19:00: 0.9935
2025-11-15 20:00: 0.0065
2025-11-15 20:00: 0.9935
2025-11-15 21:00: 0.0065
2025-11-15 21:00: 0.9935
2025-11-15 22:00: 0.0065
2025-11-15 22:00: 0.9935
2025-11-15 23:00: 0.0065
2025-11-15 23:00: 0.9935
2025-11-16 00:00: 0.0065
2025-11-16 00:00: 0.9935
2025-11-16 01:00: 0.0065
2025-11-16 01:00: 0.9935
2025-11-16 02:00: 0.0065
2025-11-16 02:00: 0.9935
2025-11-16 03:00: 0.0065
2025-11-16 03:00: 0.9935
2025-11-16 04:00: 0.0065
2025-11-16 04:00: 0.9935
2025-11-16 05:00: 0.0065
2025-11-16 05:00: 0.9935
2025-11-16 06:00: 0.0065
2025-11-16 06:00: 0.9935
2025-11-16 07:00: 0.0065
Trade Summary: No trades available
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 561256
Question: Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Volume: 1111423.360292
Price History:
2025-11-16 22:00: 0.0065
2025-11-16 22:00: 0.9935
2025-11-16 23:00: 0.0065
2025-11-16 23:00: 0.9935
2025-11-17 00:00: 0.0065
2025-11-17 00:00: 0.9935
2025-11-17 01:00: 0.0075
2025-11-17 01:00: 0.9925
2025-11-17 02:00: 0.0075
2025-11-17 02:00: 0.9925
2025-11-17 03:00: 0.0070
2025-11-17 03:00: 0.9930
2025-11-17 04:00: 0.0070
2025-11-17 04:00: 0.9930
2025-11-17 05:00: 0.0070
2025-11-17 05:00: 0.9930
2025-11-17 06:00: 0.0075
2025-11-17 06:00: 0.9925
2025-11-17 07:00: 0.0075
2025-11-17 07:00: 0.9925
2025-11-17 08:00: 0.0075
2025-11-17 08:00: 0.9925
2025-11-17 09:00: 0.0075
2025-11-17 09:00: 0.9925
2025-11-17 10:00: 0.0075
2025-11-17 10:00: 0.9925
2025-11-17 11:00: 0.0075
2025-11-17 11:00: 0.9925
2025-11-17 12:00: 0.0070
2025-11-17 12:00: 0.9930
Trade Summary: No trades available
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 561256
Question: Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Volume: 1111423.360292
Price History:
2025-11-18 03:00: 0.9935
2025-11-18 04:00: 0.0075
2025-11-18 04:00: 0.9925
2025-11-18 05:00: 0.0075
2025-11-18 05:00: 0.9925
2025-11-18 06:00: 0.0085
2025-11-18 06:00: 0.9915
2025-11-18 07:00: 0.0085
2025-11-18 07:00: 0.9915
2025-11-18 08:00: 0.0085
2025-11-18 08:00: 0.9915
2025-11-18 09:00: 0.0075
2025-11-18 09:00: 0.9925
2025-11-18 10:00: 0.0080
2025-11-18 10:00: 0.9920
2025-11-18 11:00: 0.0080
2025-11-18 11:00: 0.9920
2025-11-18 12:00: 0.0080
2025-11-18 12:00: 0.9920
2025-11-18 13:00: 0.0080
2025-11-18 13:00: 0.9920
2025-11-18 14:00: 0.0080
2025-11-18 14:00: 0.9920
2025-11-18 15:00: 0.0080
2025-11-18 15:00: 0.9920
2025-11-18 16:00: 0.0080
2025-11-18 16:00: 0.9920
2025-11-18 17:00: 0.0080
2025-11-18 17:00: 0.9920
2025-11-18 18:00: 0.0080
Trade Summary: No trades available
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 561256
Question: Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Volume: 1111423.360292
Price History:
2025-11-19 09:00: 0.0075
2025-11-19 09:00: 0.9925
2025-11-19 10:00: 0.0075
2025-11-19 10:00: 0.9925
2025-11-19 11:00: 0.0075
2025-11-19 11:00: 0.9925
2025-11-19 12:00: 0.0075
2025-11-19 12:00: 0.9925
2025-11-19 13:00: 0.0075
2025-11-19 13:00: 0.9925
2025-11-19 14:00: 0.0070
2025-11-19 14:00: 0.9930
2025-11-19 15:00: 0.0070
2025-11-19 15:00: 0.9930
2025-11-19 16:00: 0.0075
2025-11-19 16:00: 0.9925
2025-11-19 17:00: 0.0070
2025-11-19 17:00: 0.9930
2025-11-19 18:00: 0.0070
2025-11-19 18:00: 0.9930
2025-11-19 19:00: 0.0070
2025-11-19 19:00: 0.9930
2025-11-19 20:00: 0.0070
2025-11-19 20:00: 0.9930
2025-11-19 21:00: 0.0070
2025-11-19 21:00: 0.9930
2025-11-19 22:00: 0.0070
2025-11-19 22:00: 0.9930
2025-11-19 23:00: 0.0075
2025-11-19 23:00: 0.9925
Trade Summary: No trades available
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 561257
Question: Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 644323.662298
Price History:
2025-11-04 15:00: 0.5000
2025-11-04 15:00: 0.5000
2025-11-04 16:00: 0.9945
2025-11-04 16:00: 0.0055
2025-11-04 17:00: 0.9955
2025-11-04 17:00: 0.0045
2025-11-04 18:00: 0.9955
2025-11-04 18:00: 0.0045
2025-11-04 19:00: 0.9955
2025-11-04 19:00: 0.0045
2025-11-04 20:00: 0.9955
2025-11-04 20:00: 0.0045
2025-11-04 21:00: 0.9850
2025-11-04 21:00: 0.0150
2025-11-04 22:00: 0.9860
2025-11-04 22:00: 0.0140
2025-11-04 23:00: 0.9825
2025-11-04 23:00: 0.0175
2025-11-05 00:00: 0.9875
2025-11-05 00:00: 0.0125
2025-11-05 01:00: 0.9880
2025-11-05 01:00: 0.0120
2025-11-05 02:00: 0.9880
2025-11-05 02:00: 0.0120
2025-11-05 03:00: 0.9875
2025-11-05 03:00: 0.0125
2025-11-05 04:00: 0.9855
2025-11-05 04:00: 0.0145
2025-11-05 05:00: 0.9890
2025-11-05 05:00: 0.0110
2025-11-05 06:00: 0.9890
2025-11-05 06:00: 0.0110
2025-11-05 07:00: 0.9890
2025-11-05 07:00: 0.0110
2025-11-05 08:00: 0.9885
2025-11-05 08:00: 0.0115
2025-11-05 09:00: 0.9885
2025-11-05 09:00: 0.0115
2025-11-05 10:00: 0.9885
2025-11-05 10:00: 0.0115
2025-11-05 11:00: 0.9885
2025-11-05 11:00: 0.0115
2025-11-05 12:00: 0.9890
2025-11-05 12:00: 0.0110
2025-11-05 13:00: 0.9885
2025-11-05 13:00: 0.0115
2025-11-05 14:00: 0.9885
2025-11-05 14:00: 0.0115
2025-11-05 15:00: 0.9895
2025-11-05 15:00: 0.0105
Trade Summary: No trades available

Output: No


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 561257
Question: Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 644323.662298
Price History:
2025-11-05 20:00: 0.0100
2025-11-05 21:00: 0.9900
2025-11-05 21:00: 0.0100
2025-11-05 22:00: 0.9900
2025-11-05 22:00: 0.0100
2025-11-05 23:00: 0.9900
2025-11-05 23:00: 0.0100
2025-11-06 00:00: 0.9900
2025-11-06 00:00: 0.0100
2025-11-06 01:00: 0.9905
2025-11-06 01:00: 0.0095
2025-11-06 02:00: 0.9905
2025-11-06 02:00: 0.0095
2025-11-06 03:00: 0.9890
2025-11-06 03:00: 0.0110
2025-11-06 04:00: 0.9890
2025-11-06 04:00: 0.0110
2025-11-06 05:00: 0.9890
2025-11-06 05:00: 0.0110
2025-11-06 06:00: 0.9895
2025-11-06 06:00: 0.0105
2025-11-06 07:00: 0.9910
2025-11-06 07:00: 0.0090
2025-11-06 08:00: 0.9915
2025-11-06 08:00: 0.0085
2025-11-06 09:00: 0.9915
2025-11-06 09:00: 0.0085
2025-11-06 10:00: 0.9915
2025-11-06 10:00: 0.0085
2025-11-06 11:00: 0.9915
2025-11-06 11:00: 0.0085
2025-11-06 12:00: 0.9915
2025-11-06 12:00: 0.0085
2025-11-06 13:00: 0.9925
2025-11-06 13:00: 0.0075
2025-11-06 14:00: 0.9915
2025-11-06 14:00: 0.0085
2025-11-06 15:00: 0.9915
2025-11-06 15:00: 0.0085
2025-11-06 16:00: 0.9915
2025-11-06 16:00: 0.0085
2025-11-06 17:00: 0.9915
2025-11-06 17:00: 0.0085
2025-11-06 18:00: 0.9915
2025-11-06 18:00: 0.0085
2025-11-06 19:00: 0.9920
2025-11-06 19:00: 0.0080
2025-11-06 20:00: 0.9920
2025-11-06 20:00: 0.0080
2025-11-06 21:00: 0.9925
Trade Summary: No trades available

Output: No


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 561257
Question: Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 644323.662298
Price History:
2025-11-07 02:00: 0.9925
2025-11-07 02:00: 0.0075
2025-11-07 03:00: 0.9925
2025-11-07 03:00: 0.0075
2025-11-07 04:00: 0.9925
2025-11-07 04:00: 0.0075
2025-11-07 05:00: 0.9925
2025-11-07 05:00: 0.0075
2025-11-07 06:00: 0.9925
2025-11-07 06:00: 0.0075
2025-11-07 07:00: 0.9925
2025-11-07 07:00: 0.0075
2025-11-07 08:00: 0.9920
2025-11-07 08:00: 0.0080
2025-11-07 09:00: 0.9920
2025-11-07 09:00: 0.0080
2025-11-07 10:00: 0.9920
2025-11-07 10:00: 0.0080
2025-11-07 11:00: 0.9915
2025-11-07 11:00: 0.0085
2025-11-07 12:00: 0.9915
2025-11-07 12:00: 0.0085
2025-11-07 13:00: 0.9915
2025-11-07 13:00: 0.0085
2025-11-07 14:00: 0.9915
2025-11-07 14:00: 0.0085
2025-11-07 15:00: 0.9915
2025-11-07 15:00: 0.0085
2025-11-07 16:00: 0.9915
2025-11-07 16:00: 0.0085
2025-11-07 17:00: 0.9915
2025-11-07 17:00: 0.0085
2025-11-07 18:00: 0.9915
2025-11-07 18:00: 0.0085
2025-11-07 19:00: 0.9915
2025-11-07 19:00: 0.0085
2025-11-07 20:00: 0.9915
2025-11-07 20:00: 0.0085
2025-11-07 21:00: 0.9915
2025-11-07 21:00: 0.0085
2025-11-07 22:00: 0.9915
2025-11-07 22:00: 0.0085
2025-11-07 23:00: 0.9915
2025-11-07 23:00: 0.0085
2025-11-08 00:00: 0.0085
2025-11-08 00:00: 0.9915
2025-11-08 01:00: 0.9915
2025-11-08 01:00: 0.0085
2025-11-08 02:00: 0.9915
2025-11-08 02:00: 0.0085
Trade Summary: No trades available

Output: No


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 561257
Question: Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 644323.662298
Price History:
2025-11-08 07:00: 0.0075
2025-11-08 08:00: 0.9925
2025-11-08 08:00: 0.0075
2025-11-08 09:00: 0.9925
2025-11-08 09:00: 0.0075
2025-11-08 10:00: 0.9925
2025-11-08 10:00: 0.0075
2025-11-08 11:00: 0.9925
2025-11-08 11:00: 0.0075
2025-11-08 12:00: 0.9925
2025-11-08 12:00: 0.0075
2025-11-08 13:00: 0.9945
2025-11-08 13:00: 0.0055
2025-11-08 14:00: 0.9945
2025-11-08 14:00: 0.0055
2025-11-08 15:00: 0.9945
2025-11-08 15:00: 0.0055
2025-11-08 16:00: 0.9945
2025-11-08 16:00: 0.0055
2025-11-08 17:00: 0.9945
2025-11-08 17:00: 0.0055
2025-11-08 18:00: 0.9945
2025-11-08 18:00: 0.0055
2025-11-08 19:00: 0.9945
2025-11-08 19:00: 0.0055
2025-11-08 20:00: 0.9945
2025-11-08 20:00: 0.0055
2025-11-08 21:00: 0.9945
2025-11-08 21:00: 0.0055
2025-11-08 22:00: 0.9945
2025-11-08 22:00: 0.0055
2025-11-08 23:00: 0.9945
2025-11-08 23:00: 0.0055
2025-11-09 00:00: 0.9945
2025-11-09 00:00: 0.0055
2025-11-09 01:00: 0.9945
2025-11-09 01:00: 0.0055
2025-11-09 02:00: 0.9945
2025-11-09 02:00: 0.0055
2025-11-09 03:00: 0.9945
2025-11-09 03:00: 0.0055
2025-11-09 04:00: 0.9945
2025-11-09 04:00: 0.0055
2025-11-09 05:00: 0.9945
2025-11-09 05:00: 0.0055
2025-11-09 06:00: 0.9945
2025-11-09 06:00: 0.0055
2025-11-09 07:00: 0.9945
2025-11-09 07:00: 0.0055
2025-11-09 08:00: 0.9945
Trade Summary: No trades available

Output: No


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 561257
Question: Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 644323.662298
Price History:
2025-11-09 13:00: 0.9945
2025-11-09 13:00: 0.0055
2025-11-09 14:00: 0.9945
2025-11-09 14:00: 0.0055
2025-11-09 15:00: 0.9935
2025-11-09 15:00: 0.0065
2025-11-09 16:00: 0.9935
2025-11-09 16:00: 0.0065
2025-11-09 17:00: 0.9935
2025-11-09 17:00: 0.0065
2025-11-09 18:00: 0.9930
2025-11-09 18:00: 0.0070
2025-11-09 19:00: 0.9930
2025-11-09 19:00: 0.0070
2025-11-09 20:00: 0.9925
2025-11-09 20:00: 0.0075
2025-11-09 21:00: 0.9925
2025-11-09 21:00: 0.0075
2025-11-09 22:00: 0.9925
2025-11-09 22:00: 0.0075
2025-11-09 23:00: 0.9925
2025-11-09 23:00: 0.0075
2025-11-10 00:00: 0.9925
2025-11-10 00:00: 0.0075
2025-11-10 01:00: 0.9925
2025-11-10 01:00: 0.0075
2025-11-10 02:00: 0.9925
2025-11-10 02:00: 0.0075
2025-11-10 03:00: 0.9930
2025-11-10 03:00: 0.0070
2025-11-10 04:00: 0.9930
2025-11-10 04:00: 0.0070
2025-11-10 05:00: 0.9930
2025-11-10 05:00: 0.0070
2025-11-10 06:00: 0.9930
2025-11-10 06:00: 0.0070
2025-11-10 07:00: 0.9930
2025-11-10 07:00: 0.0070
2025-11-10 08:00: 0.9930
2025-11-10 08:00: 0.0070
2025-11-10 09:00: 0.9930
2025-11-10 09:00: 0.0070
2025-11-10 10:00: 0.9930
2025-11-10 10:00: 0.0070
2025-11-10 11:00: 0.9930
2025-11-10 11:00: 0.0070
2025-11-10 12:00: 0.9930
2025-11-10 12:00: 0.0070
2025-11-10 13:00: 0.9930
2025-11-10 13:00: 0.0070
Trade Summary: No trades available

Output: No


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 561257
Question: Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 644323.662298
Price History:
2025-11-10 18:00: 0.0070
2025-11-10 19:00: 0.9930
2025-11-10 19:00: 0.0070
2025-11-10 20:00: 0.9930
2025-11-10 20:00: 0.0070
2025-11-10 21:00: 0.9925
2025-11-10 21:00: 0.0075
2025-11-10 22:00: 0.9925
2025-11-10 22:00: 0.0075
2025-11-10 23:00: 0.9925
2025-11-10 23:00: 0.0075
2025-11-11 00:00: 0.9925
2025-11-11 00:00: 0.0075
2025-11-11 01:00: 0.9925
2025-11-11 01:00: 0.0075
2025-11-11 02:00: 0.9925
2025-11-11 02:00: 0.0075
2025-11-11 03:00: 0.9925
2025-11-11 03:00: 0.0075
2025-11-11 04:00: 0.9925
2025-11-11 04:00: 0.0075
2025-11-11 05:00: 0.9925
2025-11-11 05:00: 0.0075
2025-11-11 06:00: 0.9925
2025-11-11 06:00: 0.0075
2025-11-11 07:00: 0.9925
2025-11-11 07:00: 0.0075
2025-11-11 08:00: 0.9925
2025-11-11 08:00: 0.0075
2025-11-11 09:00: 0.9925
2025-11-11 09:00: 0.0075
2025-11-11 10:00: 0.9925
2025-11-11 10:00: 0.0075
2025-11-11 11:00: 0.9925
2025-11-11 11:00: 0.0075
2025-11-11 12:00: 0.9925
2025-11-11 12:00: 0.0075
2025-11-11 13:00: 0.9925
2025-11-11 13:00: 0.0075
2025-11-11 14:00: 0.9925
2025-11-11 14:00: 0.0075
2025-11-11 15:00: 0.9925
2025-11-11 15:00: 0.0075
2025-11-11 16:00: 0.9925
2025-11-11 16:00: 0.0075
2025-11-11 17:00: 0.9925
2025-11-11 17:00: 0.0075
2025-11-11 18:00: 0.9925
2025-11-11 18:00: 0.0075
2025-11-11 19:00: 0.9925
Trade Summary: No trades available

Output: No


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 561257
Question: Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 644323.662298
Price History:
2025-11-12 00:00: 0.9925
2025-11-12 00:00: 0.0075
2025-11-12 01:00: 0.9925
2025-11-12 01:00: 0.0075
2025-11-12 02:00: 0.9925
2025-11-12 02:00: 0.0075
2025-11-12 03:00: 0.9925
2025-11-12 03:00: 0.0075
2025-11-12 04:00: 0.9925
2025-11-12 04:00: 0.0075
2025-11-12 05:00: 0.9925
2025-11-12 05:00: 0.0075
2025-11-12 06:00: 0.9925
2025-11-12 06:00: 0.0075
2025-11-12 07:00: 0.9925
2025-11-12 07:00: 0.0075
2025-11-12 08:00: 0.9925
2025-11-12 08:00: 0.0075
2025-11-12 09:00: 0.9925
2025-11-12 09:00: 0.0075
2025-11-12 10:00: 0.9925
2025-11-12 10:00: 0.0075
2025-11-12 11:00: 0.9925
2025-11-12 11:00: 0.0075
2025-11-12 12:00: 0.9925
2025-11-12 12:00: 0.0075
2025-11-12 13:00: 0.9925
2025-11-12 13:00: 0.0075
2025-11-12 14:00: 0.9925
2025-11-12 14:00: 0.0075
2025-11-12 15:00: 0.9925
2025-11-12 15:00: 0.0075
2025-11-12 16:00: 0.9925
2025-11-12 16:00: 0.0075
2025-11-12 17:00: 0.9925
2025-11-12 17:00: 0.0075
2025-11-12 18:00: 0.9925
2025-11-12 18:00: 0.0075
2025-11-12 19:00: 0.9925
2025-11-12 19:00: 0.0075
2025-11-12 20:00: 0.9925
2025-11-12 20:00: 0.0075
2025-11-12 21:00: 0.9925
2025-11-12 21:00: 0.0075
2025-11-12 22:00: 0.9925
2025-11-12 22:00: 0.0075
2025-11-12 23:00: 0.9925
2025-11-12 23:00: 0.0075
2025-11-13 00:00: 0.9925
2025-11-13 00:00: 0.0075
Trade Summary: No trades available

Output: No


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 561257
Question: Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 644323.662298
Price History:
2025-11-13 05:00: 0.0075
2025-11-13 06:00: 0.9925
2025-11-13 06:00: 0.0075
2025-11-13 07:00: 0.9925
2025-11-13 07:00: 0.0075
2025-11-13 08:00: 0.9925
2025-11-13 08:00: 0.0075
2025-11-13 09:00: 0.9925
2025-11-13 09:00: 0.0075
2025-11-13 10:00: 0.9925
2025-11-13 10:00: 0.0075
2025-11-13 11:00: 0.9925
2025-11-13 11:00: 0.0075
2025-11-13 12:00: 0.9925
2025-11-13 12:00: 0.0075
2025-11-13 13:00: 0.9945
2025-11-13 13:00: 0.0055
2025-11-13 14:00: 0.9945
2025-11-13 14:00: 0.0055
2025-11-13 15:00: 0.9945
2025-11-13 15:00: 0.0055
2025-11-13 16:00: 0.9945
2025-11-13 16:00: 0.0055
2025-11-13 17:00: 0.9945
2025-11-13 17:00: 0.0055
2025-11-13 18:00: 0.9945
2025-11-13 18:00: 0.0055
2025-11-13 19:00: 0.9945
2025-11-13 19:00: 0.0055
2025-11-13 20:00: 0.9945
2025-11-13 20:00: 0.0055
2025-11-13 21:00: 0.9945
2025-11-13 21:00: 0.0055
2025-11-13 22:00: 0.9945
2025-11-13 22:00: 0.0055
2025-11-13 23:00: 0.9945
2025-11-13 23:00: 0.0055
2025-11-14 00:00: 0.9945
2025-11-14 00:00: 0.0055
2025-11-14 01:00: 0.9945
2025-11-14 01:00: 0.0055
2025-11-14 02:00: 0.9945
2025-11-14 02:00: 0.0055
2025-11-14 03:00: 0.9945
2025-11-14 03:00: 0.0055
2025-11-14 04:00: 0.9945
2025-11-14 04:00: 0.0055
2025-11-14 05:00: 0.9945
2025-11-14 05:00: 0.0055
2025-11-14 06:00: 0.9945
Trade Summary: No trades available

Output: No


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 561257
Question: Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 644323.662298
Price History:
2025-11-14 11:00: 0.9945
2025-11-14 11:00: 0.0055
2025-11-14 12:00: 0.9945
2025-11-14 12:00: 0.0055
2025-11-14 13:00: 0.9945
2025-11-14 13:00: 0.0055
2025-11-14 14:00: 0.9945
2025-11-14 14:00: 0.0055
2025-11-14 15:00: 0.9945
2025-11-14 15:00: 0.0055
2025-11-14 16:00: 0.9945
2025-11-14 16:00: 0.0055
2025-11-14 17:00: 0.9945
2025-11-14 17:00: 0.0055
2025-11-14 18:00: 0.9945
2025-11-14 18:00: 0.0055
2025-11-14 19:00: 0.9945
2025-11-14 19:00: 0.0055
2025-11-14 20:00: 0.9945
2025-11-14 20:00: 0.0055
2025-11-14 21:00: 0.9945
2025-11-14 21:00: 0.0055
2025-11-14 22:00: 0.9945
2025-11-14 22:00: 0.0055
2025-11-14 23:00: 0.9945
2025-11-14 23:00: 0.0055
2025-11-15 00:00: 0.9945
2025-11-15 00:00: 0.0055
2025-11-15 01:00: 0.9945
2025-11-15 01:00: 0.0055
2025-11-15 02:00: 0.9945
2025-11-15 02:00: 0.0055
2025-11-15 03:00: 0.9945
2025-11-15 03:00: 0.0055
2025-11-15 04:00: 0.9945
2025-11-15 04:00: 0.0055
2025-11-15 05:00: 0.9945
2025-11-15 05:00: 0.0055
2025-11-15 06:00: 0.9945
2025-11-15 06:00: 0.0055
2025-11-15 07:00: 0.9945
2025-11-15 07:00: 0.0055
2025-11-15 08:00: 0.9945
2025-11-15 08:00: 0.0055
2025-11-15 09:00: 0.9945
2025-11-15 09:00: 0.0055
2025-11-15 10:00: 0.9945
2025-11-15 10:00: 0.0055
2025-11-15 11:00: 0.9945
2025-11-15 11:00: 0.0055
Trade Summary: No trades available

Output: No


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 561257
Question: Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 644323.662298
Price History:
2025-11-15 16:00: 0.0055
2025-11-15 17:00: 0.9945
2025-11-15 17:00: 0.0055
2025-11-15 18:00: 0.9945
2025-11-15 18:00: 0.0055
2025-11-15 19:00: 0.9945
2025-11-15 19:00: 0.0055
2025-11-15 20:00: 0.9945
2025-11-15 20:00: 0.0055
2025-11-15 21:00: 0.9945
2025-11-15 21:00: 0.0055
2025-11-15 22:00: 0.9945
2025-11-15 22:00: 0.0055
2025-11-15 23:00: 0.9930
2025-11-15 23:00: 0.0070
2025-11-16 00:00: 0.9930
2025-11-16 00:00: 0.0070
2025-11-16 01:00: 0.9930
2025-11-16 01:00: 0.0070
2025-11-16 02:00: 0.9935
2025-11-16 02:00: 0.0065
2025-11-16 03:00: 0.9935
2025-11-16 03:00: 0.0065
2025-11-16 04:00: 0.9935
2025-11-16 04:00: 0.0065
2025-11-16 05:00: 0.9930
2025-11-16 05:00: 0.0070
2025-11-16 06:00: 0.9930
2025-11-16 06:00: 0.0070
2025-11-16 07:00: 0.9935
2025-11-16 07:00: 0.0065
2025-11-16 08:00: 0.9935
2025-11-16 08:00: 0.0065
2025-11-16 09:00: 0.9935
2025-11-16 09:00: 0.0065
2025-11-16 10:00: 0.9935
2025-11-16 10:00: 0.0065
2025-11-16 11:00: 0.9935
2025-11-16 11:00: 0.0065
2025-11-16 12:00: 0.9935
2025-11-16 12:00: 0.0065
2025-11-16 13:00: 0.9935
2025-11-16 13:00: 0.0065
2025-11-16 14:00: 0.9935
2025-11-16 14:00: 0.0065
2025-11-16 15:00: 0.9935
2025-11-16 15:00: 0.0065
2025-11-16 16:00: 0.9935
2025-11-16 16:00: 0.0065
2025-11-16 17:00: 0.9935
Trade Summary: No trades available

Output: No


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 561257
Question: Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 644323.662298
Price History:
2025-11-16 22:00: 0.9935
2025-11-16 22:00: 0.0065
2025-11-16 23:00: 0.9935
2025-11-16 23:00: 0.0065
2025-11-17 00:00: 0.9935
2025-11-17 00:00: 0.0065
2025-11-17 01:00: 0.9935
2025-11-17 01:00: 0.0065
2025-11-17 02:00: 0.9935
2025-11-17 02:00: 0.0065
2025-11-17 03:00: 0.9935
2025-11-17 03:00: 0.0065
2025-11-17 04:00: 0.9935
2025-11-17 04:00: 0.0065
2025-11-17 05:00: 0.9935
2025-11-17 05:00: 0.0065
2025-11-17 06:00: 0.9935
2025-11-17 06:00: 0.0065
2025-11-17 07:00: 0.9935
2025-11-17 07:00: 0.0065
2025-11-17 08:00: 0.9935
2025-11-17 08:00: 0.0065
2025-11-17 09:00: 0.9935
2025-11-17 09:00: 0.0065
2025-11-17 10:00: 0.9935
2025-11-17 10:00: 0.0065
2025-11-17 11:00: 0.9935
2025-11-17 11:00: 0.0065
2025-11-17 12:00: 0.9935
2025-11-17 12:00: 0.0065
2025-11-17 13:00: 0.9935
2025-11-17 13:00: 0.0065
2025-11-17 14:00: 0.9935
2025-11-17 14:00: 0.0065
2025-11-17 15:00: 0.9935
2025-11-17 15:00: 0.0065
2025-11-17 16:00: 0.9935
2025-11-17 16:00: 0.0065
2025-11-17 17:00: 0.9935
2025-11-17 17:00: 0.0065
2025-11-17 18:00: 0.9935
2025-11-17 18:00: 0.0065
2025-11-17 19:00: 0.9935
2025-11-17 19:00: 0.0065
2025-11-17 20:00: 0.9935
2025-11-17 20:00: 0.0065
2025-11-17 21:00: 0.9935
2025-11-17 21:00: 0.0065
2025-11-17 22:00: 0.9935
2025-11-17 22:00: 0.0065
Trade Summary: No trades available

Output: No


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 561257
Question: Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 644323.662298
Price History:
2025-11-18 03:00: 0.0065
2025-11-18 04:00: 0.9935
2025-11-18 04:00: 0.0065
2025-11-18 05:00: 0.9935
2025-11-18 05:00: 0.0065
2025-11-18 06:00: 0.9935
2025-11-18 06:00: 0.0065
2025-11-18 07:00: 0.9935
2025-11-18 07:00: 0.0065
2025-11-18 08:00: 0.9935
2025-11-18 08:00: 0.0065
2025-11-18 09:00: 0.9935
2025-11-18 09:00: 0.0065
2025-11-18 10:00: 0.9935
2025-11-18 10:00: 0.0065
2025-11-18 11:00: 0.9935
2025-11-18 11:00: 0.0065
2025-11-18 12:00: 0.9935
2025-11-18 12:00: 0.0065
2025-11-18 13:00: 0.9935
2025-11-18 13:00: 0.0065
2025-11-18 14:00: 0.9935
2025-11-18 14:00: 0.0065
2025-11-18 15:00: 0.9935
2025-11-18 15:00: 0.0065
2025-11-18 16:00: 0.9935
2025-11-18 16:00: 0.0065
2025-11-18 17:00: 0.9935
2025-11-18 17:00: 0.0065
2025-11-18 18:00: 0.9935
2025-11-18 18:00: 0.0065
2025-11-18 19:00: 0.9935
2025-11-18 19:00: 0.0065
2025-11-18 20:00: 0.9935
2025-11-18 20:00: 0.0065
2025-11-18 21:00: 0.9935
2025-11-18 21:00: 0.0065
2025-11-18 22:00: 0.9935
2025-11-18 22:00: 0.0065
2025-11-18 23:00: 0.9935
2025-11-18 23:00: 0.0065
2025-11-19 00:00: 0.9935
2025-11-19 00:00: 0.0065
2025-11-19 01:00: 0.9935
2025-11-19 01:00: 0.0065
2025-11-19 02:00: 0.9935
2025-11-19 02:00: 0.0065
2025-11-19 03:00: 0.9935
2025-11-19 03:00: 0.0065
2025-11-19 04:00: 0.9935
Trade Summary: No trades available

Output: No


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 561257
Question: Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 644323.662298
Price History:
2025-11-19 09:00: 0.9935
2025-11-19 09:00: 0.0065
2025-11-19 10:00: 0.9935
2025-11-19 10:00: 0.0065
2025-11-19 11:00: 0.9935
2025-11-19 11:00: 0.0065
2025-11-19 12:00: 0.9935
2025-11-19 12:00: 0.0065
2025-11-19 13:00: 0.9935
2025-11-19 13:00: 0.0065
2025-11-19 14:00: 0.9935
2025-11-19 14:00: 0.0065
2025-11-19 15:00: 0.9935
2025-11-19 15:00: 0.0065
2025-11-19 16:00: 0.9935
2025-11-19 16:00: 0.0065
2025-11-19 17:00: 0.9935
2025-11-19 17:00: 0.0065
2025-11-19 18:00: 0.9935
2025-11-19 18:00: 0.0065
2025-11-19 19:00: 0.9935
2025-11-19 19:00: 0.0065
2025-11-19 20:00: 0.9935
2025-11-19 20:00: 0.0065
2025-11-19 21:00: 0.9935
2025-11-19 21:00: 0.0065
2025-11-19 22:00: 0.9935
2025-11-19 22:00: 0.0065
2025-11-19 23:00: 0.9935
2025-11-19 23:00: 0.0065
2025-11-20 00:00: 0.9935
2025-11-20 00:00: 0.0065
2025-11-20 01:00: 0.9935
2025-11-20 01:00: 0.0065
2025-11-20 02:00: 0.9935
2025-11-20 02:00: 0.0065
2025-11-20 03:00: 0.9935
2025-11-20 03:00: 0.0065
2025-11-20 04:00: 0.9935
2025-11-20 04:00: 0.0065
2025-11-20 05:00: 0.9935
2025-11-20 05:00: 0.0065
2025-11-20 06:00: 0.9935
2025-11-20 06:00: 0.0065
2025-11-20 07:00: 0.9935
2025-11-20 07:00: 0.0065
2025-11-20 08:00: 0.9935
2025-11-20 08:00: 0.0065
2025-11-20 09:00: 0.9935
2025-11-20 09:00: 0.0065
Trade Summary: No trades available

Output: No


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 561257
Question: Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Volume: 644323.662298
Price History:
2025-11-04 15:00: 0.5000
2025-11-04 15:00: 0.5000
2025-11-04 16:00: 0.9945
2025-11-04 16:00: 0.0055
2025-11-04 17:00: 0.9955
2025-11-04 17:00: 0.0045
2025-11-04 18:00: 0.9955
2025-11-04 18:00: 0.0045
2025-11-04 19:00: 0.9955
2025-11-04 19:00: 0.0045
2025-11-04 20:00: 0.9955
2025-11-04 20:00: 0.0045
2025-11-04 21:00: 0.9850
2025-11-04 21:00: 0.0150
2025-11-04 22:00: 0.9860
2025-11-04 22:00: 0.0140
2025-11-04 23:00: 0.9825
2025-11-04 23:00: 0.0175
2025-11-05 00:00: 0.9875
2025-11-05 00:00: 0.0125
2025-11-05 01:00: 0.9880
2025-11-05 01:00: 0.0120
2025-11-05 02:00: 0.9880
2025-11-05 02:00: 0.0120
2025-11-05 03:00: 0.9875
2025-11-05 03:00: 0.0125
2025-11-05 04:00: 0.9855
2025-11-05 04:00: 0.0145
2025-11-05 05:00: 0.9890
2025-11-05 05:00: 0.0110
Trade Summary: No trades available
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 561257
Question: Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Volume: 644323.662298
Price History:
2025-11-05 20:00: 0.0100
2025-11-05 21:00: 0.9900
2025-11-05 21:00: 0.0100
2025-11-05 22:00: 0.9900
2025-11-05 22:00: 0.0100
2025-11-05 23:00: 0.9900
2025-11-05 23:00: 0.0100
2025-11-06 00:00: 0.9900
2025-11-06 00:00: 0.0100
2025-11-06 01:00: 0.9905
2025-11-06 01:00: 0.0095
2025-11-06 02:00: 0.9905
2025-11-06 02:00: 0.0095
2025-11-06 03:00: 0.9890
2025-11-06 03:00: 0.0110
2025-11-06 04:00: 0.9890
2025-11-06 04:00: 0.0110
2025-11-06 05:00: 0.9890
2025-11-06 05:00: 0.0110
2025-11-06 06:00: 0.9895
2025-11-06 06:00: 0.0105
2025-11-06 07:00: 0.9910
2025-11-06 07:00: 0.0090
2025-11-06 08:00: 0.9915
2025-11-06 08:00: 0.0085
2025-11-06 09:00: 0.9915
2025-11-06 09:00: 0.0085
2025-11-06 10:00: 0.9915
2025-11-06 10:00: 0.0085
2025-11-06 11:00: 0.9915
Trade Summary: No trades available
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 561257
Question: Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Volume: 644323.662298
Price History:
2025-11-07 02:00: 0.9925
2025-11-07 02:00: 0.0075
2025-11-07 03:00: 0.9925
2025-11-07 03:00: 0.0075
2025-11-07 04:00: 0.9925
2025-11-07 04:00: 0.0075
2025-11-07 05:00: 0.9925
2025-11-07 05:00: 0.0075
2025-11-07 06:00: 0.9925
2025-11-07 06:00: 0.0075
2025-11-07 07:00: 0.9925
2025-11-07 07:00: 0.0075
2025-11-07 08:00: 0.9920
2025-11-07 08:00: 0.0080
2025-11-07 09:00: 0.9920
2025-11-07 09:00: 0.0080
2025-11-07 10:00: 0.9920
2025-11-07 10:00: 0.0080
2025-11-07 11:00: 0.9915
2025-11-07 11:00: 0.0085
2025-11-07 12:00: 0.9915
2025-11-07 12:00: 0.0085
2025-11-07 13:00: 0.9915
2025-11-07 13:00: 0.0085
2025-11-07 14:00: 0.9915
2025-11-07 14:00: 0.0085
2025-11-07 15:00: 0.9915
2025-11-07 15:00: 0.0085
2025-11-07 16:00: 0.9915
2025-11-07 16:00: 0.0085
Trade Summary: No trades available
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 561257
Question: Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Volume: 644323.662298
Price History:
2025-11-08 07:00: 0.0075
2025-11-08 08:00: 0.9925
2025-11-08 08:00: 0.0075
2025-11-08 09:00: 0.9925
2025-11-08 09:00: 0.0075
2025-11-08 10:00: 0.9925
2025-11-08 10:00: 0.0075
2025-11-08 11:00: 0.9925
2025-11-08 11:00: 0.0075
2025-11-08 12:00: 0.9925
2025-11-08 12:00: 0.0075
2025-11-08 13:00: 0.9945
2025-11-08 13:00: 0.0055
2025-11-08 14:00: 0.9945
2025-11-08 14:00: 0.0055
2025-11-08 15:00: 0.9945
2025-11-08 15:00: 0.0055
2025-11-08 16:00: 0.9945
2025-11-08 16:00: 0.0055
2025-11-08 17:00: 0.9945
2025-11-08 17:00: 0.0055
2025-11-08 18:00: 0.9945
2025-11-08 18:00: 0.0055
2025-11-08 19:00: 0.9945
2025-11-08 19:00: 0.0055
2025-11-08 20:00: 0.9945
2025-11-08 20:00: 0.0055
2025-11-08 21:00: 0.9945
2025-11-08 21:00: 0.0055
2025-11-08 22:00: 0.9945
Trade Summary: No trades available
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 561257
Question: Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Volume: 644323.662298
Price History:
2025-11-09 13:00: 0.9945
2025-11-09 13:00: 0.0055
2025-11-09 14:00: 0.9945
2025-11-09 14:00: 0.0055
2025-11-09 15:00: 0.9935
2025-11-09 15:00: 0.0065
2025-11-09 16:00: 0.9935
2025-11-09 16:00: 0.0065
2025-11-09 17:00: 0.9935
2025-11-09 17:00: 0.0065
2025-11-09 18:00: 0.9930
2025-11-09 18:00: 0.0070
2025-11-09 19:00: 0.9930
2025-11-09 19:00: 0.0070
2025-11-09 20:00: 0.9925
2025-11-09 20:00: 0.0075
2025-11-09 21:00: 0.9925
2025-11-09 21:00: 0.0075
2025-11-09 22:00: 0.9925
2025-11-09 22:00: 0.0075
2025-11-09 23:00: 0.9925
2025-11-09 23:00: 0.0075
2025-11-10 00:00: 0.9925
2025-11-10 00:00: 0.0075
2025-11-10 01:00: 0.9925
2025-11-10 01:00: 0.0075
2025-11-10 02:00: 0.9925
2025-11-10 02:00: 0.0075
2025-11-10 03:00: 0.9930
2025-11-10 03:00: 0.0070
Trade Summary: No trades available
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 561257
Question: Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Volume: 644323.662298
Price History:
2025-11-10 18:00: 0.0070
2025-11-10 19:00: 0.9930
2025-11-10 19:00: 0.0070
2025-11-10 20:00: 0.9930
2025-11-10 20:00: 0.0070
2025-11-10 21:00: 0.9925
2025-11-10 21:00: 0.0075
2025-11-10 22:00: 0.9925
2025-11-10 22:00: 0.0075
2025-11-10 23:00: 0.9925
2025-11-10 23:00: 0.0075
2025-11-11 00:00: 0.9925
2025-11-11 00:00: 0.0075
2025-11-11 01:00: 0.9925
2025-11-11 01:00: 0.0075
2025-11-11 02:00: 0.9925
2025-11-11 02:00: 0.0075
2025-11-11 03:00: 0.9925
2025-11-11 03:00: 0.0075
2025-11-11 04:00: 0.9925
2025-11-11 04:00: 0.0075
2025-11-11 05:00: 0.9925
2025-11-11 05:00: 0.0075
2025-11-11 06:00: 0.9925
2025-11-11 06:00: 0.0075
2025-11-11 07:00: 0.9925
2025-11-11 07:00: 0.0075
2025-11-11 08:00: 0.9925
2025-11-11 08:00: 0.0075
2025-11-11 09:00: 0.9925
Trade Summary: No trades available
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 561257
Question: Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Volume: 644323.662298
Price History:
2025-11-12 00:00: 0.9925
2025-11-12 00:00: 0.0075
2025-11-12 01:00: 0.9925
2025-11-12 01:00: 0.0075
2025-11-12 02:00: 0.9925
2025-11-12 02:00: 0.0075
2025-11-12 03:00: 0.9925
2025-11-12 03:00: 0.0075
2025-11-12 04:00: 0.9925
2025-11-12 04:00: 0.0075
2025-11-12 05:00: 0.9925
2025-11-12 05:00: 0.0075
2025-11-12 06:00: 0.9925
2025-11-12 06:00: 0.0075
2025-11-12 07:00: 0.9925
2025-11-12 07:00: 0.0075
2025-11-12 08:00: 0.9925
2025-11-12 08:00: 0.0075
2025-11-12 09:00: 0.9925
2025-11-12 09:00: 0.0075
2025-11-12 10:00: 0.9925
2025-11-12 10:00: 0.0075
2025-11-12 11:00: 0.9925
2025-11-12 11:00: 0.0075
2025-11-12 12:00: 0.9925
2025-11-12 12:00: 0.0075
2025-11-12 13:00: 0.9925
2025-11-12 13:00: 0.0075
2025-11-12 14:00: 0.9925
2025-11-12 14:00: 0.0075
Trade Summary: No trades available
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 561257
Question: Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Volume: 644323.662298
Price History:
2025-11-13 05:00: 0.0075
2025-11-13 06:00: 0.9925
2025-11-13 06:00: 0.0075
2025-11-13 07:00: 0.9925
2025-11-13 07:00: 0.0075
2025-11-13 08:00: 0.9925
2025-11-13 08:00: 0.0075
2025-11-13 09:00: 0.9925
2025-11-13 09:00: 0.0075
2025-11-13 10:00: 0.9925
2025-11-13 10:00: 0.0075
2025-11-13 11:00: 0.9925
2025-11-13 11:00: 0.0075
2025-11-13 12:00: 0.9925
2025-11-13 12:00: 0.0075
2025-11-13 13:00: 0.9945
2025-11-13 13:00: 0.0055
2025-11-13 14:00: 0.9945
2025-11-13 14:00: 0.0055
2025-11-13 15:00: 0.9945
2025-11-13 15:00: 0.0055
2025-11-13 16:00: 0.9945
2025-11-13 16:00: 0.0055
2025-11-13 17:00: 0.9945
2025-11-13 17:00: 0.0055
2025-11-13 18:00: 0.9945
2025-11-13 18:00: 0.0055
2025-11-13 19:00: 0.9945
2025-11-13 19:00: 0.0055
2025-11-13 20:00: 0.9945
Trade Summary: No trades available
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 561257
Question: Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Volume: 644323.662298
Price History:
2025-11-14 11:00: 0.9945
2025-11-14 11:00: 0.0055
2025-11-14 12:00: 0.9945
2025-11-14 12:00: 0.0055
2025-11-14 13:00: 0.9945
2025-11-14 13:00: 0.0055
2025-11-14 14:00: 0.9945
2025-11-14 14:00: 0.0055
2025-11-14 15:00: 0.9945
2025-11-14 15:00: 0.0055
2025-11-14 16:00: 0.9945
2025-11-14 16:00: 0.0055
2025-11-14 17:00: 0.9945
2025-11-14 17:00: 0.0055
2025-11-14 18:00: 0.9945
2025-11-14 18:00: 0.0055
2025-11-14 19:00: 0.9945
2025-11-14 19:00: 0.0055
2025-11-14 20:00: 0.9945
2025-11-14 20:00: 0.0055
2025-11-14 21:00: 0.9945
2025-11-14 21:00: 0.0055
2025-11-14 22:00: 0.9945
2025-11-14 22:00: 0.0055
2025-11-14 23:00: 0.9945
2025-11-14 23:00: 0.0055
2025-11-15 00:00: 0.9945
2025-11-15 00:00: 0.0055
2025-11-15 01:00: 0.9945
2025-11-15 01:00: 0.0055
Trade Summary: No trades available
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 561257
Question: Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Volume: 644323.662298
Price History:
2025-11-15 16:00: 0.0055
2025-11-15 17:00: 0.9945
2025-11-15 17:00: 0.0055
2025-11-15 18:00: 0.9945
2025-11-15 18:00: 0.0055
2025-11-15 19:00: 0.9945
2025-11-15 19:00: 0.0055
2025-11-15 20:00: 0.9945
2025-11-15 20:00: 0.0055
2025-11-15 21:00: 0.9945
2025-11-15 21:00: 0.0055
2025-11-15 22:00: 0.9945
2025-11-15 22:00: 0.0055
2025-11-15 23:00: 0.9930
2025-11-15 23:00: 0.0070
2025-11-16 00:00: 0.9930
2025-11-16 00:00: 0.0070
2025-11-16 01:00: 0.9930
2025-11-16 01:00: 0.0070
2025-11-16 02:00: 0.9935
2025-11-16 02:00: 0.0065
2025-11-16 03:00: 0.9935
2025-11-16 03:00: 0.0065
2025-11-16 04:00: 0.9935
2025-11-16 04:00: 0.0065
2025-11-16 05:00: 0.9930
2025-11-16 05:00: 0.0070
2025-11-16 06:00: 0.9930
2025-11-16 06:00: 0.0070
2025-11-16 07:00: 0.9935
Trade Summary: No trades available
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes