Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 700137
Question: Will Charles Leclerc get pole position at the 2025 F1 Qatar Grand Prix?
Volume: 17103.020496
Price History:
2025-11-28 23:00: 0.0550
2025-11-28 23:00: 0.9450
2025-11-29 00:00: 0.0550
2025-11-29 00:00: 0.9450
2025-11-29 01:00: 0.0550
2025-11-29 01:00: 0.9450
2025-11-29 02:00: 0.0550
2025-11-29 02:00: 0.9450
2025-11-29 03:00: 0.0550
2025-11-29 03:00: 0.9450
2025-11-29 04:00: 0.0550
2025-11-29 04:00: 0.9450
2025-11-29 05:00: 0.0550
2025-11-29 05:00: 0.9450
2025-11-29 06:00: 0.0545
2025-11-29 06:00: 0.9455
2025-11-29 07:00: 0.0545
2025-11-29 07:00: 0.9455
2025-11-29 08:00: 0.0390
2025-11-29 08:00: 0.9610
Trade Summary: Total trades: 3, Buy volume: 957.07, Sell volume: 0.00, Average price: 0.9795, Price range: 0.9790 - 0.9800
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 700137
Question: Will Charles Leclerc get pole position at the 2025 F1 Qatar Grand Prix?
Volume: 17103.020496
Price History:
2025-11-29 09:00: 0.0285
2025-11-29 09:00: 0.9715
2025-11-29 10:00: 0.0165
2025-11-29 10:00: 0.9835
2025-11-29 11:00: 0.0150
2025-11-29 11:00: 0.9850
2025-11-29 12:00: 0.0165
2025-11-29 12:00: 0.9835
2025-11-29 13:00: 0.0455
2025-11-29 13:00: 0.9545
2025-11-29 14:00: 0.0410
2025-11-29 14:00: 0.9590
2025-11-29 15:00: 0.0405
2025-11-29 15:00: 0.9595
2025-11-29 16:00: 0.0405
2025-11-29 16:00: 0.9595
2025-11-29 17:00: 0.0045
2025-11-29 17:00: 0.9955
2025-11-29 18:00: 0.0045
2025-11-29 18:00: 0.9955
Trade Summary: Total trades: 52, Buy volume: 14602.04, Sell volume: 273.42, Average price: 0.8350, Price range: 0.0010 - 0.9990
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 559675
Question: Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 2392104.119612
Price History:
2025-07-11 15:00: 0.5000
2025-07-18 12:00: 0.5000
2025-07-18 17:00: 0.0240
2025-07-18 21:00: 0.9805
2025-07-19 02:00: 0.0165
2025-07-19 06:00: 0.9860
2025-07-19 11:00: 0.0130
2025-07-19 15:00: 0.9885
2025-07-19 20:00: 0.0115
2025-07-20 00:00: 0.9885
2025-07-20 05:00: 0.0115
2025-07-20 09:00: 0.9885
2025-07-20 14:00: 0.0115
2025-07-20 18:00: 0.9880
2025-07-20 23:00: 0.0115
2025-07-21 03:00: 0.9885
2025-07-21 08:00: 0.0115
2025-07-21 12:00: 0.9885
2025-07-21 17:00: 0.0115
2025-07-21 21:00: 0.9890
2025-07-22 02:00: 0.0110
2025-07-22 06:00: 0.9895
2025-07-22 11:00: 0.0105
2025-07-22 15:00: 0.9895
2025-07-22 20:00: 0.0105
2025-07-23 00:00: 0.9895
2025-07-23 04:00: 0.0105
2025-07-23 08:00: 0.9900
2025-07-23 13:00: 0.0100
2025-07-23 17:00: 0.9915
2025-07-23 22:00: 0.0085
2025-07-24 02:00: 0.9915
2025-07-24 07:00: 0.0095
2025-07-24 11:00: 0.9905
2025-07-24 16:00: 0.0085
2025-07-24 20:00: 0.9915
2025-07-25 01:00: 0.0085
2025-07-25 05:00: 0.9910
2025-07-25 10:00: 0.0090
2025-07-25 14:00: 0.9910
2025-07-25 19:00: 0.0090
2025-07-25 23:00: 0.9910
2025-07-26 04:00: 0.0080
2025-07-26 08:00: 0.9920
2025-07-26 13:00: 0.0080
2025-07-26 17:00: 0.9925
2025-07-26 22:00: 0.0075
2025-07-27 02:00: 0.9925
2025-07-27 07:00: 0.0075
2025-07-27 11:00: 0.9925
Trade Summary: No trades available

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 559675
Question: Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 2392104.119612
Price History:
2025-07-27 22:00: 0.0075
2025-07-28 02:00: 0.9925
2025-07-28 07:00: 0.0060
2025-07-28 11:00: 0.9940
2025-07-28 16:00: 0.0060
2025-07-28 20:00: 0.9940
2025-07-29 01:00: 0.0055
2025-07-29 05:00: 0.9940
2025-07-29 10:00: 0.0060
2025-07-29 14:00: 0.9940
2025-07-29 19:00: 0.0060
2025-07-29 23:00: 0.9940
2025-07-30 04:00: 0.0060
2025-07-30 08:00: 0.9945
2025-07-30 13:00: 0.0055
2025-07-30 17:00: 0.9945
2025-07-30 22:00: 0.0055
2025-07-31 02:00: 0.9945
2025-07-31 07:00: 0.0055
2025-07-31 11:00: 0.9945
2025-07-31 16:00: 0.0050
2025-07-31 20:00: 0.9950
2025-08-01 01:00: 0.0050
2025-08-01 05:00: 0.9950
2025-08-01 10:00: 0.0050
2025-08-01 14:00: 0.9950
2025-08-01 19:00: 0.0050
2025-08-01 23:00: 0.9950
2025-08-02 04:00: 0.0050
2025-08-02 08:00: 0.9950
2025-08-02 13:00: 0.0060
2025-08-02 17:00: 0.9940
2025-08-02 22:00: 0.0060
2025-08-03 02:00: 0.9940
2025-08-03 07:00: 0.0060
2025-08-03 11:00: 0.9940
2025-08-03 16:00: 0.0060
2025-08-03 20:00: 0.9935
2025-08-04 01:00: 0.0065
2025-08-04 05:00: 0.9935
2025-08-04 10:00: 0.0050
2025-08-04 14:00: 0.9950
2025-08-04 19:00: 0.0050
2025-08-04 23:00: 0.9950
2025-08-05 04:00: 0.0055
2025-08-05 08:00: 0.9940
2025-08-05 13:00: 0.0055
2025-08-05 17:00: 0.9940
2025-08-05 22:00: 0.0065
2025-08-06 02:00: 0.9950
Trade Summary: No trades available

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 559675
Question: Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 2392104.119612
Price History:
2025-08-06 13:00: 0.0050
2025-08-06 17:00: 0.0055
2025-08-06 22:00: 0.9945
2025-08-07 02:00: 0.9955
2025-08-07 07:00: 0.0055
2025-08-07 11:00: 0.9940
2025-08-07 16:00: 0.0055
2025-08-07 20:00: 0.9945
2025-08-08 01:00: 0.9950
2025-08-08 05:00: 0.9945
2025-08-08 10:00: 0.0055
2025-08-08 14:00: 0.0055
2025-08-08 19:00: 0.9945
2025-08-08 23:00: 0.0055
2025-08-09 04:00: 0.0055
2025-08-09 08:00: 0.9945
2025-08-09 13:00: 0.0055
2025-08-09 17:00: 0.0065
2025-08-09 22:00: 0.0075
2025-08-10 02:00: 0.9895
2025-08-10 07:00: 0.0105
2025-08-10 11:00: 0.9895
2025-08-10 16:00: 0.0215
2025-08-10 20:00: 0.9800
2025-08-11 01:00: 0.9800
2025-08-11 05:00: 0.9790
2025-08-11 10:00: 0.9775
2025-08-11 14:00: 0.9785
2025-08-11 19:00: 0.0215
2025-08-11 23:00: 0.0225
2025-08-12 04:00: 0.0210
2025-08-12 08:00: 0.9785
2025-08-12 13:00: 0.0210
2025-08-12 17:00: 0.0160
2025-08-12 22:00: 0.9805
2025-08-13 02:00: 0.0205
2025-08-13 07:00: 0.9800
2025-08-13 11:00: 0.0210
2025-08-13 16:00: 0.9790
2025-08-13 20:00: 0.9790
2025-08-14 01:00: 0.9790
2025-08-14 05:00: 0.0210
2025-08-14 10:00: 0.0275
2025-08-14 14:00: 0.0275
2025-08-14 19:00: 0.0275
2025-08-14 23:00: 0.9605
2025-08-15 04:00: 0.0390
2025-08-15 08:00: 0.9615
2025-08-15 13:00: 0.0385
2025-08-15 17:00: 0.9620
Trade Summary: No trades available

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 559675
Question: Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 2392104.119612
Price History:
2025-08-16 04:00: 0.0395
2025-08-16 08:00: 0.0385
2025-08-16 13:00: 0.9595
2025-08-16 17:00: 0.9575
2025-08-16 22:00: 0.0410
2025-08-17 02:00: 0.9570
2025-08-17 07:00: 0.9570
2025-08-17 11:00: 0.0410
2025-08-17 16:00: 0.9600
2025-08-17 20:00: 0.0400
2025-08-18 01:00: 0.9670
2025-08-18 05:00: 0.9670
2025-08-18 10:00: 0.0335
2025-08-18 14:00: 0.9665
2025-08-18 19:00: 0.0355
2025-08-18 23:00: 0.0425
2025-08-19 04:00: 0.0430
2025-08-19 08:00: 0.9560
2025-08-19 13:00: 0.9570
2025-08-19 17:00: 0.9570
2025-08-19 22:00: 0.9570
2025-08-20 02:00: 0.9565
2025-08-20 07:00: 0.9595
2025-08-20 11:00: 0.9575
2025-08-20 16:00: 0.9580
2025-08-20 20:00: 0.9570
2025-08-21 01:00: 0.0430
2025-08-21 05:00: 0.0435
2025-08-21 10:00: 0.9580
2025-08-21 14:00: 0.9585
2025-08-21 19:00: 0.9590
2025-08-21 23:00: 0.0410
2025-08-22 04:00: 0.9590
2025-08-22 08:00: 0.0410
2025-08-22 13:00: 0.0405
2025-08-22 17:00: 0.0385
2025-08-22 22:00: 0.9615
2025-08-23 02:00: 0.9615
2025-08-23 07:00: 0.0385
2025-08-23 11:00: 0.0385
2025-08-23 16:00: 0.9615
2025-08-23 20:00: 0.9615
2025-08-24 01:00: 0.9615
2025-08-24 05:00: 0.9615
2025-08-24 10:00: 0.0385
2025-08-24 14:00: 0.0385
2025-08-24 19:00: 0.0385
2025-08-24 23:00: 0.9615
2025-08-25 04:00: 0.0385
2025-08-25 08:00: 0.9615
Trade Summary: No trades available

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 559675
Question: Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 2392104.119612
Price History:
2025-08-25 19:00: 0.0365
2025-08-25 23:00: 0.0360
2025-08-26 03:00: 0.9640
2025-08-26 07:00: 0.9630
2025-08-26 12:00: 0.0380
2025-08-26 16:00: 0.9620
2025-08-26 21:00: 0.9630
2025-08-27 01:00: 0.9635
2025-08-27 06:00: 0.0365
2025-08-27 10:00: 0.9630
2025-08-27 15:00: 0.0385
2025-08-27 19:00: 0.0385
2025-08-28 00:00: 0.0380
2025-08-28 04:00: 0.0380
2025-08-28 09:00: 0.0380
2025-08-28 13:00: 0.0370
2025-08-28 18:00: 0.9635
2025-08-28 22:00: 0.0360
2025-08-29 03:00: 0.9640
2025-08-29 07:00: 0.9645
2025-08-29 12:00: 0.0355
2025-08-29 16:00: 0.9645
2025-08-29 21:00: 0.0360
2025-08-30 01:00: 0.0360
2025-08-30 06:00: 0.0365
2025-08-30 10:00: 0.9635
2025-08-30 15:00: 0.0365
2025-08-30 19:00: 0.0375
2025-08-31 00:00: 0.0375
2025-08-31 04:00: 0.9630
2025-08-31 09:00: 0.0370
2025-08-31 13:00: 0.0365
2025-08-31 18:00: 0.9635
2025-08-31 22:00: 0.0365
2025-09-01 03:00: 0.0365
2025-09-01 07:00: 0.9635
2025-09-01 12:00: 0.0360
2025-09-01 16:00: 0.9635
2025-09-01 21:00: 0.9635
2025-09-02 01:00: 0.9640
2025-09-02 06:00: 0.0360
2025-09-02 10:00: 0.9640
2025-09-02 15:00: 0.0365
2025-09-02 19:00: 0.0365
2025-09-03 00:00: 0.0360
2025-09-03 04:00: 0.0370
2025-09-03 09:00: 0.9625
2025-09-03 13:00: 0.0395
2025-09-03 18:00: 0.9600
2025-09-03 22:00: 0.9600
Trade Summary: No trades available

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 559675
Question: Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 2392104.119612
Price History:
2025-09-04 09:00: 0.0400
2025-09-04 13:00: 0.0395
2025-09-04 18:00: 0.9625
2025-09-04 22:00: 0.0375
2025-09-05 03:00: 0.0370
2025-09-05 07:00: 0.9630
2025-09-05 12:00: 0.0370
2025-09-05 16:00: 0.9630
2025-09-05 21:00: 0.0370
2025-09-06 01:00: 0.0370
2025-09-06 06:00: 0.0370
2025-09-06 10:00: 0.9630
2025-09-06 15:00: 0.0370
2025-09-06 19:00: 0.9635
2025-09-07 00:00: 0.0365
2025-09-07 04:00: 0.9635
2025-09-07 09:00: 0.0370
2025-09-07 13:00: 0.0375
2025-09-07 18:00: 0.0365
2025-09-07 22:00: 0.0365
2025-09-08 03:00: 0.9635
2025-09-08 07:00: 0.0355
2025-09-08 12:00: 0.0355
2025-09-08 16:00: 0.0355
2025-09-08 21:00: 0.0355
2025-09-09 01:00: 0.9645
2025-09-09 06:00: 0.9645
2025-09-09 10:00: 0.9645
2025-09-09 15:00: 0.0355
2025-09-09 19:00: 0.0355
2025-09-10 00:00: 0.0355
2025-09-10 04:00: 0.9645
2025-09-10 09:00: 0.0355
2025-09-10 13:00: 0.0355
2025-09-10 18:00: 0.9645
2025-09-10 22:00: 0.0355
2025-09-11 03:00: 0.9645
2025-09-11 07:00: 0.9645
2025-09-11 12:00: 0.0355
2025-09-11 16:00: 0.9645
2025-09-11 21:00: 0.0355
2025-09-12 01:00: 0.9645
2025-09-12 06:00: 0.9645
2025-09-12 10:00: 0.0335
2025-09-12 15:00: 0.9685
2025-09-12 19:00: 0.0315
2025-09-13 00:00: 0.9745
2025-09-13 04:00: 0.0255
2025-09-13 09:00: 0.0230
2025-09-13 13:00: 0.0225
Trade Summary: No trades available

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 559675
Question: Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 2392104.119612
Price History:
2025-09-14 00:00: 0.0220
2025-09-14 04:00: 0.0220
2025-09-14 09:00: 0.9780
2025-09-14 13:00: 0.9775
2025-09-14 18:00: 0.9770
2025-09-14 22:00: 0.0235
2025-09-15 03:00: 0.9780
2025-09-15 07:00: 0.0210
2025-09-15 12:00: 0.0185
2025-09-15 16:00: 0.0205
2025-09-15 21:00: 0.0235
2025-09-16 01:00: 0.9770
2025-09-16 06:00: 0.0230
2025-09-16 10:00: 0.9770
2025-09-16 15:00: 0.0210
2025-09-16 19:00: 0.0210
2025-09-17 00:00: 0.9790
2025-09-17 04:00: 0.9790
2025-09-17 09:00: 0.9790
2025-09-17 13:00: 0.0195
2025-09-17 19:00: 0.9805
2025-09-17 23:00: 0.9805
2025-09-18 04:00: 0.9805
2025-09-18 08:00: 0.9805
2025-09-18 13:00: 0.9810
2025-09-18 17:00: 0.0195
2025-09-18 22:00: 0.9805
2025-09-19 02:00: 0.0190
2025-09-19 07:00: 0.0195
2025-09-19 11:00: 0.0195
2025-09-19 16:00: 0.0205
2025-09-19 20:00: 0.9795
2025-09-20 01:00: 0.9800
2025-09-20 05:00: 0.0200
2025-09-20 10:00: 0.9805
2025-09-20 14:00: 0.0195
2025-09-20 19:00: 0.9800
2025-09-20 23:00: 0.0195
2025-09-21 04:00: 0.0195
2025-09-21 08:00: 0.9800
2025-09-21 13:00: 0.9800
2025-09-21 17:00: 0.9800
2025-09-21 22:00: 0.0200
2025-09-22 02:00: 0.9800
2025-09-22 07:00: 0.0200
2025-09-22 11:00: 0.0200
2025-09-22 16:00: 0.0200
2025-09-22 20:00: 0.9800
2025-09-23 01:00: 0.9800
2025-09-23 05:00: 0.9800
Trade Summary: No trades available

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 559675
Question: Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 2392104.119612
Price History:
2025-09-23 16:00: 0.0200
2025-09-23 20:00: 0.0200
2025-09-24 01:00: 0.0200
2025-09-24 05:00: 0.0200
2025-09-24 10:00: 0.9810
2025-09-24 14:00: 0.0200
2025-09-24 19:00: 0.0195
2025-09-24 23:00: 0.0195
2025-09-25 04:00: 0.9805
2025-09-25 08:00: 0.0200
2025-09-25 13:00: 0.9800
2025-09-25 17:00: 0.0205
2025-09-25 22:00: 0.9805
2025-09-26 02:00: 0.0195
2025-09-26 07:00: 0.9805
2025-09-26 11:00: 0.9805
2025-09-26 16:00: 0.0195
2025-09-26 20:00: 0.9805
2025-09-27 01:00: 0.9805
2025-09-27 05:00: 0.0190
2025-09-27 10:00: 0.0185
2025-09-27 14:00: 0.9815
2025-09-27 19:00: 0.9815
2025-09-27 23:00: 0.9815
2025-09-28 04:00: 0.9835
2025-09-28 08:00: 0.0160
2025-09-28 13:00: 0.0140
2025-09-28 17:00: 0.9840
2025-09-28 22:00: 0.0155
2025-09-29 02:00: 0.9845
2025-09-29 07:00: 0.9855
2025-09-29 11:00: 0.9855
2025-09-29 16:00: 0.9850
2025-09-29 20:00: 0.0150
2025-09-30 01:00: 0.0145
2025-09-30 05:00: 0.9850
2025-09-30 10:00: 0.0150
2025-09-30 14:00: 0.9850
2025-09-30 19:00: 0.9855
2025-09-30 23:00: 0.0145
2025-10-01 04:00: 0.0145
2025-10-01 08:00: 0.9855
2025-10-01 13:00: 0.0145
2025-10-01 17:00: 0.9875
2025-10-01 22:00: 0.0110
2025-10-02 02:00: 0.0095
2025-10-02 07:00: 0.9895
2025-10-02 11:00: 0.0095
2025-10-02 16:00: 0.0095
2025-10-02 20:00: 0.9905
Trade Summary: No trades available

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 559675
Question: Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 2392104.119612
Price History:
2025-10-03 07:00: 0.9905
2025-10-03 11:00: 0.0100
2025-10-03 16:00: 0.9905
2025-10-03 20:00: 0.9915
2025-10-04 01:00: 0.9915
2025-10-04 05:00: 0.9905
2025-10-04 10:00: 0.0095
2025-10-04 14:00: 0.9905
2025-10-04 19:00: 0.0090
2025-10-04 23:00: 0.9910
2025-10-05 04:00: 0.0090
2025-10-05 08:00: 0.9910
2025-10-05 13:00: 0.0090
2025-10-05 17:00: 0.0090
2025-10-05 22:00: 0.9905
2025-10-06 02:00: 0.9910
2025-10-06 07:00: 0.0090
2025-10-06 11:00: 0.9910
2025-10-06 16:00: 0.0090
2025-10-06 20:00: 0.9910
2025-10-07 01:00: 0.9915
2025-10-07 05:00: 0.0090
2025-10-07 10:00: 0.9915
2025-10-07 14:00: 0.0095
2025-10-07 19:00: 0.9885
2025-10-07 23:00: 0.9885
2025-10-08 04:00: 0.0110
2025-10-08 08:00: 0.9890
2025-10-08 13:00: 0.9850
2025-10-08 17:00: 0.0150
2025-10-08 22:00: 0.0135
2025-10-09 02:00: 0.9875
2025-10-09 07:00: 0.0125
2025-10-09 11:00: 0.0125
2025-10-09 16:00: 0.0130
2025-10-09 20:00: 0.9870
2025-10-10 01:00: 0.0135
2025-10-10 05:00: 0.9840
2025-10-10 10:00: 0.9845
2025-10-10 14:00: 0.0150
2025-10-10 19:00: 0.9850
2025-10-10 23:00: 0.9850
2025-10-11 04:00: 0.0150
2025-10-11 08:00: 0.0170
2025-10-11 13:00: 0.9865
2025-10-11 17:00: 0.0145
2025-10-11 22:00: 0.0140
2025-10-12 02:00: 0.0145
2025-10-12 07:00: 0.9840
2025-10-12 11:00: 0.9860
Trade Summary: No trades available

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 559675
Question: Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 2392104.119612
Price History:
2025-10-12 22:00: 0.0145
2025-10-13 02:00: 0.9830
2025-10-13 07:00: 0.9830
2025-10-13 11:00: 0.9840
2025-10-13 16:00: 0.0165
2025-10-13 20:00: 0.0160
2025-10-14 01:00: 0.0160
2025-10-14 05:00: 0.9835
2025-10-14 10:00: 0.0155
2025-10-14 14:00: 0.0155
2025-10-14 19:00: 0.9845
2025-10-14 23:00: 0.9845
2025-10-15 04:00: 0.0155
2025-10-15 08:00: 0.9845
2025-10-15 13:00: 0.9845
2025-10-15 17:00: 0.0135
2025-10-15 22:00: 0.0135
2025-10-16 02:00: 0.0135
2025-10-16 07:00: 0.9865
2025-10-16 11:00: 0.0135
2025-10-16 16:00: 0.9865
2025-10-16 20:00: 0.0135
2025-10-17 01:00: 0.9865
2025-10-17 05:00: 0.0135
2025-10-17 10:00: 0.9865
2025-10-17 14:00: 0.0130
2025-10-17 19:00: 0.9865
2025-10-17 23:00: 0.0135
2025-10-18 04:00: 0.9865
2025-10-18 08:00: 0.9865
2025-10-18 13:00: 0.9865
2025-10-18 17:00: 0.0140
2025-10-18 22:00: 0.9855
2025-10-19 02:00: 0.9855
2025-10-19 07:00: 0.9860
2025-10-19 11:00: 0.0140
2025-10-19 16:00: 0.0135
2025-10-19 20:00: 0.9865
2025-10-20 01:00: 0.9860
2025-10-20 05:00: 0.0145
2025-10-20 10:00: 0.9855
2025-10-20 14:00: 0.9855
2025-10-20 19:00: 0.0155
2025-10-20 23:00: 0.0155
2025-10-21 04:00: 0.0155
2025-10-21 08:00: 0.0155
2025-10-21 13:00: 0.9845
2025-10-21 17:00: 0.0155
2025-10-21 22:00: 0.0155
2025-10-22 02:00: 0.9845
Trade Summary: No trades available

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 559675
Question: Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 2392104.119612
Price History:
2025-10-22 13:00: 0.0155
2025-10-22 17:00: 0.9845
2025-10-22 22:00: 0.0155
2025-10-23 02:00: 0.9845
2025-10-23 07:00: 0.0155
2025-10-23 11:00: 0.9845
2025-10-23 16:00: 0.0155
2025-10-23 20:00: 0.9845
2025-10-24 01:00: 0.0155
2025-10-24 05:00: 0.9845
2025-10-24 10:00: 0.0155
2025-10-24 14:00: 0.9845
2025-10-24 19:00: 0.0155
2025-10-24 23:00: 0.9845
2025-10-25 04:00: 0.0155
2025-10-25 08:00: 0.9855
2025-10-25 13:00: 0.0145
2025-10-25 17:00: 0.9855
2025-10-25 22:00: 0.0145
2025-10-26 02:00: 0.9860
2025-10-26 07:00: 0.0140
2025-10-26 11:00: 0.9855
2025-10-26 16:00: 0.0145
2025-10-26 20:00: 0.9855
2025-10-27 01:00: 0.0145
2025-10-27 05:00: 0.9865
2025-10-27 10:00: 0.0135
2025-10-27 14:00: 0.9865
2025-10-27 19:00: 0.0135
2025-10-27 23:00: 0.9865
2025-10-28 04:00: 0.0135
2025-10-28 08:00: 0.9865
2025-10-28 13:00: 0.0125
2025-10-28 17:00: 0.9875
2025-10-28 22:00: 0.0125
2025-10-29 02:00: 0.9875
2025-10-29 10:00: 0.9875
2025-10-29 15:00: 0.0125
2025-10-29 19:00: 0.9875
2025-10-30 00:00: 0.0125
2025-10-30 04:00: 0.9875
2025-10-30 09:00: 0.0125
2025-10-30 13:00: 0.9875
2025-10-30 18:00: 0.0125
2025-10-30 22:00: 0.9875
2025-10-31 03:00: 0.0115
2025-10-31 07:00: 0.9885
2025-10-31 12:00: 0.0115
2025-10-31 16:00: 0.9885
2025-10-31 21:00: 0.0115
Trade Summary: No trades available

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 559675
Question: Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 2392104.119612
Price History:
2025-11-01 07:00: 0.9885
2025-11-01 12:00: 0.0115
2025-11-01 16:00: 0.9885
2025-11-01 21:00: 0.0120
2025-11-02 01:00: 0.9875
2025-11-02 05:00: 0.0125
2025-11-02 09:00: 0.9855
2025-11-02 14:00: 0.0125
2025-11-02 18:00: 0.9875
2025-11-02 23:00: 0.0125
2025-11-03 03:00: 0.9885
2025-11-03 08:00: 0.0115
2025-11-03 12:00: 0.9885
2025-11-03 17:00: 0.0115
2025-11-03 21:00: 0.9885
2025-11-04 02:00: 0.0115
2025-11-04 06:00: 0.9885
2025-11-04 11:00: 0.0115
2025-11-04 15:00: 0.9885
2025-11-04 20:00: 0.0115
2025-11-05 00:00: 0.9885
2025-11-05 05:00: 0.0115
2025-11-05 09:00: 0.9885
2025-11-05 14:00: 0.0115
2025-11-05 18:00: 0.9885
2025-11-05 23:00: 0.0090
2025-11-06 03:00: 0.9910
2025-11-06 08:00: 0.0090
2025-11-06 12:00: 0.9905
2025-11-06 17:00: 0.0090
2025-11-06 21:00: 0.9915
2025-11-07 02:00: 0.0065
2025-11-07 06:00: 0.9935
2025-11-07 11:00: 0.0075
2025-11-07 15:00: 0.9925
2025-11-07 20:00: 0.0070
2025-11-08 00:00: 0.9925
2025-11-08 05:00: 0.0070
2025-11-08 09:00: 0.9930
2025-11-08 14:00: 0.0075
2025-11-08 18:00: 0.9925
2025-11-08 23:00: 0.0085
2025-11-09 03:00: 0.9925
2025-11-09 08:00: 0.0080
2025-11-09 12:00: 0.9925
2025-11-09 17:00: 0.0075
2025-11-09 21:00: 0.9925
2025-11-10 02:00: 0.0075
2025-11-10 06:00: 0.9935
2025-11-10 11:00: 0.0075
Trade Summary: No trades available

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 559675
Question: Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 2392104.119612
Price History:
2025-11-10 21:00: 0.9920
2025-11-11 02:00: 0.0075
2025-11-11 06:00: 0.9925
2025-11-11 11:00: 0.0080
2025-11-11 15:00: 0.9925
2025-11-11 20:00: 0.0070
2025-11-12 00:00: 0.9930
2025-11-12 05:00: 0.0075
2025-11-12 09:00: 0.9930
2025-11-12 14:00: 0.0070
2025-11-12 18:00: 0.9930
2025-11-12 23:00: 0.0070
2025-11-13 03:00: 0.9930
2025-11-13 08:00: 0.0075
2025-11-13 12:00: 0.9930
2025-11-13 17:00: 0.0070
2025-11-13 21:00: 0.9930
2025-11-14 02:00: 0.0070
2025-11-14 06:00: 0.9925
2025-11-14 11:00: 0.0075
2025-11-14 15:00: 0.9925
2025-11-14 20:00: 0.0075
2025-11-15 00:00: 0.9925
2025-11-15 05:00: 0.0070
2025-11-15 09:00: 0.9930
2025-11-15 14:00: 0.0070
2025-11-15 18:00: 0.9925
2025-11-15 23:00: 0.0075
2025-11-16 03:00: 0.9925
2025-11-16 08:00: 0.0075
2025-11-16 12:00: 0.9925
2025-11-16 17:00: 0.0075
2025-11-16 21:00: 0.9925
2025-11-17 02:00: 0.0070
2025-11-17 06:00: 0.9935
2025-11-17 11:00: 0.0070
2025-11-17 15:00: 0.9930
2025-11-17 20:00: 0.0055
2025-11-18 00:00: 0.9945
2025-11-18 05:00: 0.0055
2025-11-18 09:00: 0.9935
2025-11-18 14:00: 0.0055
2025-11-18 18:00: 0.9945
2025-11-18 23:00: 0.0055
2025-11-19 03:00: 0.9945
2025-11-19 08:00: 0.0055
2025-11-19 12:00: 0.9945
2025-11-19 17:00: 0.0055
2025-11-19 21:00: 0.9945
2025-11-20 02:00: 0.0055
Trade Summary: No trades available

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 559675
Question: Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Volume: 2392104.119612
Price History:
2025-07-11 15:00: 0.5000
2025-07-18 15:00: 0.9755
2025-07-18 23:00: 0.0195
2025-07-19 06:00: 0.9860
2025-07-19 14:00: 0.0125
2025-07-19 21:00: 0.9885
2025-07-20 05:00: 0.0115
2025-07-20 12:00: 0.9885
2025-07-20 20:00: 0.0115
2025-07-21 03:00: 0.9885
2025-07-21 11:00: 0.0115
2025-07-21 18:00: 0.9890
2025-07-22 02:00: 0.0110
2025-07-22 09:00: 0.9895
2025-07-22 17:00: 0.0105
2025-07-23 00:00: 0.9895
2025-07-23 07:00: 0.0100
2025-07-23 14:00: 0.9900
2025-07-23 22:00: 0.0085
2025-07-24 05:00: 0.9915
2025-07-24 13:00: 0.0095
2025-07-24 20:00: 0.9915
2025-07-25 04:00: 0.0090
2025-07-25 11:00: 0.9910
2025-07-25 19:00: 0.0090
2025-07-26 02:00: 0.9920
2025-07-26 10:00: 0.0080
2025-07-26 17:00: 0.9925
2025-07-27 01:00: 0.0075
2025-07-27 08:00: 0.9925
Trade Summary: No trades available
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 559675
Question: Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Volume: 2392104.119612
Price History:
2025-07-27 22:00: 0.0075
2025-07-28 05:00: 0.9940
2025-07-28 13:00: 0.0060
2025-07-28 20:00: 0.9940
2025-07-29 04:00: 0.0055
2025-07-29 11:00: 0.9940
2025-07-29 19:00: 0.0060
2025-07-30 02:00: 0.9940
2025-07-30 10:00: 0.0055
2025-07-30 17:00: 0.9945
2025-07-31 01:00: 0.0055
2025-07-31 08:00: 0.9945
2025-07-31 16:00: 0.0050
2025-07-31 23:00: 0.9950
2025-08-01 07:00: 0.0050
2025-08-01 14:00: 0.9950
2025-08-01 22:00: 0.0050
2025-08-02 05:00: 0.9950
2025-08-02 13:00: 0.0060
2025-08-02 20:00: 0.9940
2025-08-03 04:00: 0.0060
2025-08-03 11:00: 0.9940
2025-08-03 19:00: 0.0065
2025-08-04 02:00: 0.9935
2025-08-04 10:00: 0.0050
2025-08-04 17:00: 0.9950
2025-08-05 01:00: 0.0050
2025-08-05 08:00: 0.9940
2025-08-05 16:00: 0.0055
2025-08-05 23:00: 0.9935
Trade Summary: No trades available
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 559675
Question: Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Volume: 2392104.119612
Price History:
2025-08-06 13:00: 0.0050
2025-08-06 20:00: 0.0055
2025-08-07 04:00: 0.0055
2025-08-07 11:00: 0.9940
2025-08-07 19:00: 0.0055
2025-08-08 02:00: 0.0050
2025-08-08 10:00: 0.0055
2025-08-08 17:00: 0.0055
2025-08-09 01:00: 0.9945
2025-08-09 08:00: 0.9945
2025-08-09 16:00: 0.9935
2025-08-09 23:00: 0.9905
2025-08-10 07:00: 0.0105
2025-08-10 14:00: 0.0110
2025-08-10 22:00: 0.9800
2025-08-11 05:00: 0.9790
2025-08-11 13:00: 0.9785
2025-08-11 20:00: 0.9785
2025-08-12 04:00: 0.0210
2025-08-12 11:00: 0.0215
2025-08-12 19:00: 0.0160
2025-08-13 02:00: 0.0205
2025-08-13 10:00: 0.9795
2025-08-13 17:00: 0.0210
2025-08-14 01:00: 0.9790
2025-08-14 08:00: 0.9795
2025-08-14 16:00: 0.9725
2025-08-14 23:00: 0.9605
2025-08-15 07:00: 0.0390
2025-08-15 14:00: 0.9615
Trade Summary: No trades available
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 559675
Question: Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Volume: 2392104.119612
Price History:
2025-08-16 04:00: 0.0395
2025-08-16 11:00: 0.9600
2025-08-16 19:00: 0.0420
2025-08-17 02:00: 0.9570
2025-08-17 10:00: 0.9590
2025-08-17 17:00: 0.0400
2025-08-18 01:00: 0.9670
2025-08-18 08:00: 0.9665
2025-08-18 16:00: 0.0335
2025-08-18 23:00: 0.0425
2025-08-19 07:00: 0.9560
2025-08-19 14:00: 0.0435
2025-08-19 22:00: 0.9570
2025-08-20 05:00: 0.9595
2025-08-20 13:00: 0.9575
2025-08-20 20:00: 0.9570
2025-08-21 04:00: 0.0430
2025-08-21 11:00: 0.0420
2025-08-21 19:00: 0.9590
2025-08-22 02:00: 0.9590
2025-08-22 10:00: 0.0410
2025-08-22 17:00: 0.0385
2025-08-23 01:00: 0.9615
2025-08-23 08:00: 0.0385
2025-08-23 16:00: 0.9615
2025-08-23 23:00: 0.0385
2025-08-24 07:00: 0.0385
2025-08-24 14:00: 0.0385
2025-08-24 22:00: 0.0385
2025-08-25 05:00: 0.9615
Trade Summary: No trades available
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 559675
Question: Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Volume: 2392104.119612
Price History:
2025-08-25 19:00: 0.0365
2025-08-26 01:00: 0.9645
2025-08-26 09:00: 0.0370
2025-08-26 16:00: 0.9620
2025-08-27 00:00: 0.9630
2025-08-27 07:00: 0.9635
2025-08-27 15:00: 0.0385
2025-08-27 22:00: 0.0380
2025-08-28 06:00: 0.0380
2025-08-28 13:00: 0.0370
2025-08-28 21:00: 0.9640
2025-08-29 04:00: 0.0355
2025-08-29 12:00: 0.0355
2025-08-29 19:00: 0.9640
2025-08-30 03:00: 0.0360
2025-08-30 10:00: 0.9635
2025-08-30 18:00: 0.0375
2025-08-31 01:00: 0.9630
2025-08-31 09:00: 0.0370
2025-08-31 16:00: 0.9635
2025-09-01 00:00: 0.0365
2025-09-01 07:00: 0.9635
2025-09-01 15:00: 0.9635
2025-09-01 22:00: 0.0365
2025-09-02 06:00: 0.0360
2025-09-02 13:00: 0.0365
2025-09-02 21:00: 0.0365
2025-09-03 04:00: 0.0370
2025-09-03 12:00: 0.0385
2025-09-03 19:00: 0.0400
Trade Summary: No trades available
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 559675
Question: Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Volume: 2392104.119612
Price History:
2025-09-04 09:00: 0.0400
2025-09-04 16:00: 0.9615
2025-09-05 00:00: 0.0370
2025-09-05 07:00: 0.9630
2025-09-05 15:00: 0.0370
2025-09-05 22:00: 0.9630
2025-09-06 06:00: 0.0370
2025-09-06 13:00: 0.0370
2025-09-06 21:00: 0.0365
2025-09-07 04:00: 0.9635
2025-09-07 12:00: 0.9625
2025-09-07 19:00: 0.0365
2025-09-08 03:00: 0.9635
2025-09-08 10:00: 0.0355
2025-09-08 18:00: 0.9645
2025-09-09 01:00: 0.9645
2025-09-09 09:00: 0.0355
2025-09-09 16:00: 0.9645
2025-09-10 00:00: 0.0355
2025-09-10 07:00: 0.0355
2025-09-10 15:00: 0.9645
2025-09-10 22:00: 0.0355
2025-09-11 06:00: 0.0355
2025-09-11 13:00: 0.9645
2025-09-11 21:00: 0.0355
2025-09-12 04:00: 0.9645
2025-09-12 12:00: 0.9680
2025-09-12 19:00: 0.0315
2025-09-13 03:00: 0.9745
2025-09-13 10:00: 0.0230
Trade Summary: No trades available
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 559675
Question: Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Volume: 2392104.119612
Price History:
2025-09-14 00:00: 0.0220
2025-09-14 07:00: 0.0215
2025-09-14 15:00: 0.9780
2025-09-14 22:00: 0.0235
2025-09-15 06:00: 0.9790
2025-09-15 13:00: 0.9815
2025-09-15 21:00: 0.0235
2025-09-16 04:00: 0.9770
2025-09-16 12:00: 0.9775
2025-09-16 19:00: 0.0210
2025-09-17 03:00: 0.9790
2025-09-17 10:00: 0.9795
2025-09-17 19:00: 0.9805
2025-09-18 02:00: 0.9805
2025-09-18 10:00: 0.0195
2025-09-18 17:00: 0.0195
2025-09-19 01:00: 0.9805
2025-09-19 08:00: 0.0190
2025-09-19 16:00: 0.0205
2025-09-19 23:00: 0.9800
2025-09-20 07:00: 0.9800
2025-09-20 14:00: 0.0195
2025-09-20 22:00: 0.9800
2025-09-21 05:00: 0.0195
2025-09-21 13:00: 0.9800
2025-09-21 20:00: 0.9800
2025-09-22 04:00: 0.0200
2025-09-22 11:00: 0.0200
2025-09-22 19:00: 0.0200
2025-09-23 02:00: 0.9800
Trade Summary: No trades available
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 559675
Question: Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Volume: 2392104.119612
Price History:
2025-09-23 16:00: 0.0200
2025-09-23 23:00: 0.9800
2025-09-24 07:00: 0.0200
2025-09-24 14:00: 0.0200
2025-09-24 22:00: 0.0195
2025-09-25 05:00: 0.0195
2025-09-25 13:00: 0.9800
2025-09-25 20:00: 0.0195
2025-09-26 04:00: 0.9805
2025-09-26 11:00: 0.9805
2025-09-26 19:00: 0.0195
2025-09-27 02:00: 0.9810
2025-09-27 10:00: 0.0185
2025-09-27 17:00: 0.0185
2025-09-28 01:00: 0.0170
2025-09-28 08:00: 0.0160
2025-09-28 16:00: 0.0160
2025-09-28 23:00: 0.9845
2025-09-29 07:00: 0.9855
2025-09-29 14:00: 0.9850
2025-09-29 22:00: 0.0150
2025-09-30 05:00: 0.9850
2025-09-30 13:00: 0.0150
2025-09-30 20:00: 0.9845
2025-10-01 04:00: 0.0145
2025-10-01 11:00: 0.9855
2025-10-01 19:00: 0.0120
2025-10-02 02:00: 0.0095
2025-10-02 10:00: 0.9905
2025-10-02 17:00: 0.9905
Trade Summary: No trades available
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 559675
Question: Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Volume: 2392104.119612
Price History:
2025-10-03 07:00: 0.9905
2025-10-03 14:00: 0.9905
2025-10-03 22:00: 0.0085
2025-10-04 05:00: 0.9905
2025-10-04 13:00: 0.0095
2025-10-04 20:00: 0.9910
2025-10-05 04:00: 0.0090
2025-10-05 11:00: 0.9910
2025-10-05 19:00: 0.9910
2025-10-06 02:00: 0.9910
2025-10-06 10:00: 0.0085
2025-10-06 17:00: 0.0090
2025-10-07 01:00: 0.9915
2025-10-07 08:00: 0.9905
2025-10-07 16:00: 0.0100
2025-10-07 23:00: 0.9885
2025-10-08 07:00: 0.0110
2025-10-08 14:00: 0.9855
2025-10-08 22:00: 0.0135
2025-10-09 05:00: 0.9875
2025-10-09 13:00: 0.0130
2025-10-09 20:00: 0.9870
2025-10-10 04:00: 0.0130
2025-10-10 11:00: 0.0150
2025-10-10 19:00: 0.9850
2025-10-11 02:00: 0.9850
2025-10-11 10:00: 0.9865
2025-10-11 17:00: 0.0145
2025-10-12 01:00: 0.9855
2025-10-12 08:00: 0.9850
Trade Summary: No trades available
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 559675
Question: Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Volume: 2392104.119612
Price History:
2025-10-12 22:00: 0.0145
2025-10-13 05:00: 0.9835
2025-10-13 13:00: 0.0175
2025-10-13 20:00: 0.0160
2025-10-14 04:00: 0.0160
2025-10-14 11:00: 0.9845
2025-10-14 19:00: 0.9845
2025-10-15 02:00: 0.0155
2025-10-15 10:00: 0.0155
2025-10-15 17:00: 0.0135
2025-10-16 01:00: 0.0135
2025-10-16 08:00: 0.0135
2025-10-16 16:00: 0.9865
2025-10-16 23:00: 0.0135
2025-10-17 07:00: 0.9865
2025-10-17 14:00: 0.0130
2025-10-17 22:00: 0.0135
2025-10-18 05:00: 0.9865
2025-10-18 13:00: 0.9865
2025-10-18 20:00: 0.0140
2025-10-19 04:00: 0.9855
2025-10-19 11:00: 0.0140
2025-10-19 19:00: 0.0135
2025-10-20 02:00: 0.9855
2025-10-20 10:00: 0.9855
2025-10-20 17:00: 0.0155
2025-10-21 01:00: 0.9845
2025-10-21 08:00: 0.0155
2025-10-21 16:00: 0.9845
2025-10-21 23:00: 0.9845
Trade Summary: No trades available
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 559675
Question: Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Volume: 2392104.119612
Price History:
2025-10-22 13:00: 0.0155
2025-10-22 20:00: 0.9845
2025-10-23 04:00: 0.0155
2025-10-23 11:00: 0.9845
2025-10-23 19:00: 0.0155
2025-10-24 02:00: 0.9845
2025-10-24 10:00: 0.0155
2025-10-24 17:00: 0.9845
2025-10-25 01:00: 0.0155
2025-10-25 08:00: 0.9855
2025-10-25 16:00: 0.0145
2025-10-25 23:00: 0.9855
2025-10-26 07:00: 0.0140
2025-10-26 14:00: 0.9855
2025-10-26 22:00: 0.0145
2025-10-27 05:00: 0.9865
2025-10-27 13:00: 0.0135
2025-10-27 20:00: 0.9865
2025-10-28 04:00: 0.0135
2025-10-28 11:00: 0.9875
2025-10-28 19:00: 0.0125
2025-10-29 02:00: 0.9875
2025-10-29 13:00: 0.9875
2025-10-29 21:00: 0.0125
2025-10-30 04:00: 0.9875
2025-10-30 12:00: 0.0125
2025-10-30 19:00: 0.9875
2025-10-31 03:00: 0.0115
2025-10-31 10:00: 0.9885
2025-10-31 18:00: 0.0115
Trade Summary: No trades available
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 559675
Question: Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Volume: 2392104.119612
Price History:
2025-11-01 07:00: 0.9885
2025-11-01 15:00: 0.0115
2025-11-01 22:00: 0.9875
2025-11-02 05:00: 0.0125
2025-11-02 12:00: 0.9875
2025-11-02 20:00: 0.0125
2025-11-03 03:00: 0.9885
2025-11-03 11:00: 0.0115
2025-11-03 18:00: 0.9885
2025-11-04 02:00: 0.0115
2025-11-04 09:00: 0.9885
2025-11-04 17:00: 0.0115
2025-11-05 00:00: 0.9885
2025-11-05 08:00: 0.0115
2025-11-05 15:00: 0.9885
2025-11-05 23:00: 0.0090
2025-11-06 06:00: 0.9910
2025-11-06 14:00: 0.0085
2025-11-06 21:00: 0.9915
2025-11-07 05:00: 0.0065
2025-11-07 12:00: 0.9925
2025-11-07 20:00: 0.0070
2025-11-08 03:00: 0.9930
2025-11-08 11:00: 0.0070
2025-11-08 18:00: 0.9925
2025-11-09 02:00: 0.0085
2025-11-09 09:00: 0.9920
2025-11-09 17:00: 0.0075
2025-11-10 00:00: 0.9925
2025-11-10 08:00: 0.0065
Trade Summary: No trades available
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 559675
Question: Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Volume: 2392104.119612
Price History:
2025-11-10 21:00: 0.9920
2025-11-11 05:00: 0.0080
2025-11-11 12:00: 0.9925
2025-11-11 20:00: 0.0070
2025-11-12 03:00: 0.9925
2025-11-12 11:00: 0.0070
2025-11-12 18:00: 0.9930
2025-11-13 02:00: 0.0070
2025-11-13 09:00: 0.9930
2025-11-13 17:00: 0.0070
2025-11-14 00:00: 0.9935
2025-11-14 08:00: 0.0075
2025-11-14 15:00: 0.9925
2025-11-14 23:00: 0.0075
2025-11-15 06:00: 0.9930
2025-11-15 14:00: 0.0070
2025-11-15 21:00: 0.9925
2025-11-16 05:00: 0.0075
2025-11-16 12:00: 0.9925
2025-11-16 20:00: 0.0075
2025-11-17 03:00: 0.9930
2025-11-17 11:00: 0.0070
2025-11-17 18:00: 0.9935
2025-11-18 02:00: 0.0055
2025-11-18 09:00: 0.9935
2025-11-18 17:00: 0.0055
2025-11-19 00:00: 0.9945
2025-11-19 08:00: 0.0055
2025-11-19 15:00: 0.9945
2025-11-19 23:00: 0.0055
Trade Summary: No trades available
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 513149
Question: Will Ashley Moody be appointed as the next Florida senator?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 818937.515619
Price History:
2024-11-15 16:00: 0.3800
2024-11-15 18:00: 0.0445
2024-11-15 20:00: 0.0515
2024-11-15 22:00: 0.0595
2024-11-16 00:00: 0.5505
2024-11-16 02:00: 0.1165
2024-11-16 04:00: 0.0865
2024-11-16 06:00: 0.0780
2024-11-16 08:00: 0.0740
2024-11-16 10:00: 0.0740
2024-11-16 12:00: 0.0645
2024-11-16 14:00: 0.0645
2024-11-16 16:00: 0.0645
2024-11-16 18:00: 0.0655
2024-11-16 20:00: 0.0655
2024-11-16 22:00: 0.0605
2024-11-17 00:00: 0.0670
2024-11-17 02:00: 0.0645
2024-11-17 04:00: 0.0640
2024-11-17 06:00: 0.0660
2024-11-17 08:00: 0.0655
2024-11-17 10:00: 0.0645
2024-11-17 12:00: 0.1145
2024-11-17 14:00: 0.4525
2024-11-17 16:00: 0.1375
2024-11-17 18:00: 0.1205
2024-11-17 20:00: 0.1140
2024-11-17 22:00: 0.1070
2024-11-18 00:00: 0.1065
2024-11-18 02:00: 0.1150
2024-11-18 04:00: 0.1175
2024-11-18 06:00: 0.1140
2024-11-18 08:00: 0.1150
2024-11-18 10:00: 0.1150
2024-11-18 12:00: 0.1145
2024-11-18 14:00: 0.1145
2024-11-18 16:00: 0.1145
2024-11-18 18:00: 0.1150
2024-11-18 20:00: 0.1150
2024-11-18 22:00: 0.1150
2024-11-19 00:00: 0.1155
2024-11-19 02:00: 0.1160
2024-11-19 04:00: 0.1150
2024-11-19 06:00: 0.1160
2024-11-19 08:00: 0.1170
2024-11-19 10:00: 0.1170
2024-11-19 12:00: 0.1170
2024-11-19 14:00: 0.1170
2024-11-19 16:00: 0.1175
2024-11-19 18:00: 0.1170
Trade Summary: Total trades: 1000000, Buy volume: 98180919.36, Sell volume: 41891985.79, Average price: 0.8462, Price range: 0.0020 - 0.9990

Output: No


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 513149
Question: Will Ashley Moody be appointed as the next Florida senator?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 818937.515619
Price History:
2024-11-20 20:00: 0.1175
2024-11-20 22:00: 0.1175
2024-11-21 00:00: 0.1175
2024-11-21 02:00: 0.1175
2024-11-21 04:00: 0.1180
2024-11-21 06:00: 0.1175
2024-11-21 08:00: 0.1180
2024-11-21 10:00: 0.1175
2024-11-21 12:00: 0.1180
2024-11-21 14:00: 0.1070
2024-11-21 16:00: 0.1015
2024-11-21 18:00: 0.0995
2024-11-21 20:00: 0.0935
2024-11-21 22:00: 0.1730
2024-11-22 00:00: 0.2790
2024-11-22 02:00: 0.2270
2024-11-22 04:00: 0.2125
2024-11-22 06:00: 0.2120
2024-11-22 08:00: 0.2120
2024-11-22 10:00: 0.1200
2024-11-22 12:00: 0.1295
2024-11-22 14:00: 0.1295
2024-11-22 16:00: 0.1295
2024-11-22 18:00: 0.1445
2024-11-22 20:00: 0.1120
2024-11-22 22:00: 0.0745
2024-11-23 00:00: 0.1045
2024-11-23 02:00: 0.1565
2024-11-23 04:00: 0.1505
2024-11-23 06:00: 0.1450
2024-11-23 08:00: 0.1470
2024-11-23 10:00: 0.1445
2024-11-23 12:00: 0.5100
2024-11-23 14:00: 0.4200
2024-11-23 16:00: 0.4290
2024-11-23 18:00: 0.1840
2024-11-23 20:00: 0.1605
2024-11-23 22:00: 0.1585
2024-11-24 00:00: 0.1585
2024-11-24 02:00: 0.1585
2024-11-24 04:00: 0.1585
2024-11-24 06:00: 0.1645
2024-11-24 08:00: 0.1650
2024-11-24 10:00: 0.1645
2024-11-24 12:00: 0.1645
2024-11-24 14:00: 0.1695
2024-11-24 16:00: 0.1700
2024-11-24 18:00: 0.1635
2024-11-24 20:00: 0.1650
2024-11-24 22:00: 0.1620
Trade Summary: Total trades: 1000000, Buy volume: 98180919.36, Sell volume: 41891985.79, Average price: 0.8462, Price range: 0.0020 - 0.9990

Output: No


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 513149
Question: Will Ashley Moody be appointed as the next Florida senator?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 818937.515619
Price History:
2024-11-26 00:00: 0.1425
2024-11-26 02:00: 0.1430
2024-11-26 04:00: 0.1430
2024-11-26 06:00: 0.1430
2024-11-26 08:00: 0.1430
2024-11-26 10:00: 0.1300
2024-11-26 12:00: 0.1300
2024-11-26 14:00: 0.1245
2024-11-26 16:00: 0.1295
2024-11-26 18:00: 0.1165
2024-11-26 20:00: 0.1200
2024-11-26 22:00: 0.1430
2024-11-27 00:00: 0.1420
2024-11-27 02:00: 0.1330
2024-11-27 04:00: 0.1330
2024-11-27 06:00: 0.1265
2024-11-27 08:00: 0.1400
2024-11-27 10:00: 0.1420
2024-11-27 12:00: 0.1415
2024-11-27 14:00: 0.1415
2024-11-27 16:00: 0.2490
2024-11-27 18:00: 0.2485
2024-11-27 20:00: 0.2435
2024-11-27 22:00: 0.2430
2024-11-28 00:00: 0.1900
2024-11-28 02:00: 0.2140
2024-11-28 04:00: 0.2185
2024-11-28 06:00: 0.2195
2024-11-28 08:00: 0.1975
2024-11-28 10:00: 0.2000
2024-11-28 12:00: 0.1930
2024-11-28 14:00: 0.1955
2024-11-28 16:00: 0.2025
2024-11-28 18:00: 0.2075
2024-11-28 20:00: 0.2250
2024-11-28 22:00: 0.2250
2024-11-29 00:00: 0.2275
2024-11-29 02:00: 0.2325
2024-11-29 04:00: 0.2325
2024-11-29 06:00: 0.2325
2024-11-29 08:00: 0.2325
2024-11-29 10:00: 0.2270
2024-11-29 12:00: 0.1705
2024-11-29 14:00: 0.2210
2024-11-29 16:00: 0.2260
2024-11-29 18:00: 0.1990
2024-11-29 20:00: 0.1785
2024-11-29 22:00: 0.2145
2024-11-30 00:00: 0.2125
2024-11-30 02:00: 0.1955
Trade Summary: Total trades: 1000000, Buy volume: 98180919.36, Sell volume: 41891985.79, Average price: 0.8462, Price range: 0.0020 - 0.9990

Output: No


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 513149
Question: Will Ashley Moody be appointed as the next Florida senator?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 818937.515619
Price History:
2024-12-01 04:00: 0.1585
2024-12-01 06:00: 0.1585
2024-12-01 08:00: 0.1585
2024-12-01 10:00: 0.1585
2024-12-01 12:00: 0.1585
2024-12-01 14:00: 0.1585
2024-12-01 16:00: 0.1585
2024-12-01 18:00: 0.1585
2024-12-01 20:00: 0.1585
2024-12-01 22:00: 0.1585
2024-12-02 00:00: 0.1585
2024-12-02 02:00: 0.1585
2024-12-02 04:00: 0.1585
2024-12-02 06:00: 0.1585
2024-12-02 08:00: 0.1585
2024-12-02 10:00: 0.1585
2024-12-02 12:00: 0.1585
2024-12-02 14:00: 0.1585
2024-12-02 16:00: 0.1585
2024-12-02 18:00: 0.1585
2024-12-02 20:00: 0.1385
2024-12-02 22:00: 0.1370
2024-12-03 00:00: 0.1370
2024-12-03 02:00: 0.1370
2024-12-03 04:00: 0.1370
2024-12-03 06:00: 0.1370
2024-12-03 08:00: 0.1370
2024-12-03 10:00: 0.1370
2024-12-03 12:00: 0.1370
2024-12-03 14:00: 0.1370
2024-12-03 16:00: 0.1710
2024-12-03 18:00: 0.1405
2024-12-03 20:00: 0.1410
2024-12-03 22:00: 0.1460
2024-12-04 00:00: 0.1455
2024-12-04 02:00: 0.1550
2024-12-04 04:00: 0.1450
2024-12-04 06:00: 0.1450
2024-12-04 08:00: 0.1450
2024-12-04 10:00: 0.1450
2024-12-04 12:00: 0.1450
2024-12-04 14:00: 0.1425
2024-12-04 16:00: 0.1700
2024-12-04 18:00: 0.2430
2024-12-04 20:00: 0.1925
2024-12-04 22:00: 0.1960
2024-12-05 00:00: 0.2945
2024-12-05 02:00: 0.2100
2024-12-05 04:00: 0.2080
2024-12-05 06:00: 0.2155
Trade Summary: Total trades: 1000000, Buy volume: 98180919.36, Sell volume: 41891985.79, Average price: 0.8462, Price range: 0.0020 - 0.9990

Output: No


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 513149
Question: Will Ashley Moody be appointed as the next Florida senator?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 818937.515619
Price History:
2024-12-06 08:00: 0.1760
2024-12-06 10:00: 0.2545
2024-12-06 12:00: 0.2250
2024-12-06 14:00: 0.1805
2024-12-06 16:00: 0.2550
2024-12-06 18:00: 0.2325
2024-12-06 20:00: 0.2350
2024-12-06 22:00: 0.1765
2024-12-07 00:00: 0.1770
2024-12-07 02:00: 0.1770
2024-12-07 04:00: 0.1820
2024-12-07 06:00: 0.1800
2024-12-07 08:00: 0.1790
2024-12-07 10:00: 0.2515
2024-12-07 12:00: 0.2800
2024-12-07 14:00: 0.2940
2024-12-07 16:00: 0.3090
2024-12-07 18:00: 0.2900
2024-12-07 20:00: 0.2825
2024-12-07 22:00: 0.2690
2024-12-08 00:00: 0.2740
2024-12-08 02:00: 0.2740
2024-12-08 04:00: 0.2790
2024-12-08 06:00: 0.2790
2024-12-08 08:00: 0.2790
2024-12-08 10:00: 0.3135
2024-12-08 12:00: 0.3340
2024-12-08 14:00: 0.3340
2024-12-08 16:00: 0.3340
2024-12-08 18:00: 0.3310
2024-12-08 20:00: 0.3310
2024-12-08 22:00: 0.3360
2024-12-09 00:00: 0.2820
2024-12-09 02:00: 0.2885
2024-12-09 04:00: 0.3120
2024-12-09 06:00: 0.3125
2024-12-09 08:00: 0.3125
2024-12-09 10:00: 0.3125
2024-12-09 12:00: 0.2545
2024-12-09 14:00: 0.1845
2024-12-09 16:00: 0.1505
2024-12-09 18:00: 0.2180
2024-12-09 20:00: 0.2095
2024-12-09 22:00: 0.2750
2024-12-10 00:00: 0.2625
2024-12-10 02:00: 0.2100
2024-12-10 04:00: 0.2050
2024-12-10 06:00: 0.2460
2024-12-10 08:00: 0.2550
2024-12-10 10:00: 0.2310
Trade Summary: Total trades: 1000000, Buy volume: 98180919.36, Sell volume: 41891985.79, Average price: 0.8462, Price range: 0.0020 - 0.9990

Output: No


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 513149
Question: Will Ashley Moody be appointed as the next Florida senator?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 818937.515619
Price History:
2024-12-11 12:00: 0.2310
2024-12-11 14:00: 0.2480
2024-12-11 16:00: 0.2475
2024-12-11 18:00: 0.2480
2024-12-11 20:00: 0.2500
2024-12-11 22:00: 0.2500
2024-12-12 00:00: 0.1815
2024-12-12 02:00: 0.1810
2024-12-12 04:00: 0.1995
2024-12-12 06:00: 0.1885
2024-12-12 08:00: 0.1995
2024-12-12 10:00: 0.2195
2024-12-12 12:00: 0.2140
2024-12-12 14:00: 0.3130
2024-12-12 16:00: 0.2640
2024-12-12 18:00: 0.2745
2024-12-12 20:00: 0.2440
2024-12-12 22:00: 0.2285
2024-12-13 00:00: 0.2630
2024-12-13 02:00: 0.2290
2024-12-13 04:00: 0.2365
2024-12-13 06:00: 0.2380
2024-12-13 08:00: 0.2190
2024-12-13 10:00: 0.2010
2024-12-13 12:00: 0.1965
2024-12-13 14:00: 0.1960
2024-12-13 16:00: 0.1960
2024-12-13 18:00: 0.1960
2024-12-13 20:00: 0.1960
2024-12-13 22:00: 0.2805
2024-12-14 00:00: 0.2855
2024-12-14 02:00: 0.2970
2024-12-14 04:00: 0.3100
2024-12-14 06:00: 0.3280
2024-12-14 08:00: 0.3450
2024-12-14 10:00: 0.3020
2024-12-14 12:00: 0.3110
2024-12-14 14:00: 0.3160
2024-12-14 16:00: 0.3190
2024-12-14 18:00: 0.3240
2024-12-14 20:00: 0.3205
2024-12-14 22:00: 0.3225
2024-12-15 00:00: 0.3260
2024-12-15 02:00: 0.3270
2024-12-15 04:00: 0.3265
2024-12-15 06:00: 0.3295
2024-12-15 08:00: 0.3260
2024-12-15 10:00: 0.3155
2024-12-15 12:00: 0.3235
2024-12-15 14:00: 0.3155
Trade Summary: Total trades: 1000000, Buy volume: 98180919.36, Sell volume: 41891985.79, Average price: 0.8462, Price range: 0.0020 - 0.9990

Output: No


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 513149
Question: Will Ashley Moody be appointed as the next Florida senator?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 818937.515619
Price History:
2024-12-16 16:00: 0.4985
2024-12-16 18:00: 0.5730
2024-12-16 20:00: 0.5700
2024-12-16 22:00: 0.5700
2024-12-17 00:00: 0.5390
2024-12-17 02:00: 0.5375
2024-12-17 04:00: 0.5690
2024-12-17 06:00: 0.5890
2024-12-17 08:00: 0.5750
2024-12-17 10:00: 0.5475
2024-12-17 12:00: 0.5240
2024-12-17 14:00: 0.5240
2024-12-17 16:00: 0.5385
2024-12-17 18:00: 0.5360
2024-12-17 20:00: 0.5335
2024-12-17 22:00: 0.5350
2024-12-18 00:00: 0.5350
2024-12-18 02:00: 0.5350
2024-12-18 04:00: 0.5350
2024-12-18 06:00: 0.5630
2024-12-18 08:00: 0.5705
2024-12-18 10:00: 0.5495
2024-12-18 12:00: 0.7125
2024-12-18 14:00: 0.5825
2024-12-18 16:00: 0.5755
2024-12-18 18:00: 0.5685
2024-12-18 20:00: 0.5820
2024-12-18 22:00: 0.6410
2024-12-19 00:00: 0.6940
2024-12-19 02:00: 0.3425
2024-12-19 04:00: 0.3360
2024-12-19 06:00: 0.3325
2024-12-19 08:00: 0.3220
2024-12-19 10:00: 0.4210
2024-12-19 12:00: 0.5050
2024-12-19 14:00: 0.5120
2024-12-19 16:00: 0.5150
2024-12-19 18:00: 0.6045
2024-12-19 20:00: 0.6155
2024-12-19 22:00: 0.6250
2024-12-20 00:00: 0.6220
2024-12-20 02:00: 0.6355
2024-12-20 04:00: 0.6335
2024-12-20 06:00: 0.6315
2024-12-20 08:00: 0.6200
2024-12-20 10:00: 0.6200
2024-12-20 12:00: 0.6205
2024-12-20 14:00: 0.5850
2024-12-20 16:00: 0.5775
2024-12-20 18:00: 0.6255
Trade Summary: Total trades: 1000000, Buy volume: 98180919.36, Sell volume: 41891985.79, Average price: 0.8462, Price range: 0.0020 - 0.9990

Output: No


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 513149
Question: Will Ashley Moody be appointed as the next Florida senator?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 818937.515619
Price History:
2024-12-21 20:00: 0.6805
2024-12-21 22:00: 0.6890
2024-12-22 00:00: 0.6810
2024-12-22 02:00: 0.6690
2024-12-22 04:00: 0.7110
2024-12-22 06:00: 0.6745
2024-12-22 08:00: 0.6655
2024-12-22 10:00: 0.6690
2024-12-22 12:00: 0.7135
2024-12-22 14:00: 0.7395
2024-12-22 16:00: 0.7440
2024-12-22 18:00: 0.7245
2024-12-22 20:00: 0.7005
2024-12-22 22:00: 0.6980
2024-12-23 00:00: 0.7155
2024-12-23 02:00: 0.7140
2024-12-23 04:00: 0.6820
2024-12-23 06:00: 0.7305
2024-12-23 08:00: 0.7085
2024-12-23 10:00: 0.7130
2024-12-23 12:00: 0.7080
2024-12-23 14:00: 0.6955
2024-12-23 16:00: 0.7555
2024-12-23 18:00: 0.7160
2024-12-23 20:00: 0.7110
2024-12-23 22:00: 0.7165
2024-12-24 00:00: 0.7060
2024-12-24 02:00: 0.7765
2024-12-24 04:00: 0.7425
2024-12-24 06:00: 0.7850
2024-12-24 08:00: 0.7110
2024-12-24 10:00: 0.7060
2024-12-24 12:00: 0.7340
2024-12-24 14:00: 0.7680
2024-12-24 16:00: 0.7765
2024-12-24 18:00: 0.7015
2024-12-24 20:00: 0.7220
2024-12-24 22:00: 0.3050
2024-12-25 00:00: 0.5715
2024-12-25 02:00: 0.6350
2024-12-25 04:00: 0.5330
2024-12-25 06:00: 0.5600
2024-12-25 08:00: 0.5985
2024-12-25 10:00: 0.6645
2024-12-25 12:00: 0.6890
2024-12-25 14:00: 0.6580
2024-12-25 16:00: 0.6780
2024-12-25 18:00: 0.6775
2024-12-25 20:00: 0.6845
2024-12-25 22:00: 0.6915
Trade Summary: Total trades: 1000000, Buy volume: 98180919.36, Sell volume: 41891985.79, Average price: 0.8462, Price range: 0.0020 - 0.9990

Output: No


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 513149
Question: Will Ashley Moody be appointed as the next Florida senator?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 818937.515619
Price History:
2024-12-27 00:00: 0.6945
2024-12-27 02:00: 0.7025
2024-12-27 04:00: 0.7300
2024-12-27 06:00: 0.7475
2024-12-27 08:00: 0.7400
2024-12-27 10:00: 0.7140
2024-12-27 12:00: 0.7465
2024-12-27 14:00: 0.7570
2024-12-27 16:00: 0.7195
2024-12-27 18:00: 0.7515
2024-12-27 20:00: 0.7450
2024-12-27 22:00: 0.7410
2024-12-28 00:00: 0.7570
2024-12-28 02:00: 0.7565
2024-12-28 04:00: 0.7675
2024-12-28 06:00: 0.7675
2024-12-28 08:00: 0.7820
2024-12-28 10:00: 0.7785
2024-12-28 12:00: 0.7785
2024-12-28 14:00: 0.7645
2024-12-28 16:00: 0.7660
2024-12-28 18:00: 0.7630
2024-12-28 20:00: 0.7680
2024-12-28 22:00: 0.7685
2024-12-29 00:00: 0.7735
2024-12-29 02:00: 0.7445
2024-12-29 04:00: 0.7660
2024-12-29 06:00: 0.7760
2024-12-29 08:00: 0.7720
2024-12-29 10:00: 0.7640
2024-12-29 12:00: 0.7595
2024-12-29 14:00: 0.7590
2024-12-29 16:00: 0.7615
2024-12-29 18:00: 0.7735
2024-12-29 20:00: 0.7720
2024-12-29 22:00: 0.7735
2024-12-30 00:00: 0.7795
2024-12-30 02:00: 0.7785
2024-12-30 04:00: 0.7745
2024-12-30 06:00: 0.7735
2024-12-30 08:00: 0.7715
2024-12-30 10:00: 0.7675
2024-12-30 12:00: 0.7670
2024-12-30 14:00: 0.7670
2024-12-30 16:00: 0.7640
2024-12-30 18:00: 0.7640
2024-12-30 20:00: 0.7665
2024-12-30 22:00: 0.7615
2024-12-31 00:00: 0.6865
2024-12-31 02:00: 0.6890
Trade Summary: Total trades: 1000000, Buy volume: 98180919.36, Sell volume: 41891985.79, Average price: 0.8462, Price range: 0.0020 - 0.9990

Output: No


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 513149
Question: Will Ashley Moody be appointed as the next Florida senator?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 818937.515619
Price History:
2025-01-01 04:00: 0.7375
2025-01-01 06:00: 0.6920
2025-01-01 08:00: 0.6280
2025-01-01 10:00: 0.7115
2025-01-01 12:00: 0.7560
2025-01-01 14:00: 0.7380
2025-01-01 16:00: 0.7400
2025-01-01 18:00: 0.7605
2025-01-01 20:00: 0.7595
2025-01-01 22:00: 0.7570
2025-01-02 00:00: 0.7880
2025-01-02 02:00: 0.7910
2025-01-02 04:00: 0.7805
2025-01-02 06:00: 0.7840
2025-01-02 08:00: 0.7705
2025-01-02 10:00: 0.7795
2025-01-02 12:00: 0.7835
2025-01-02 14:00: 0.7830
2025-01-02 16:00: 0.7830
2025-01-02 18:00: 0.7830
2025-01-02 20:00: 0.7830
2025-01-02 22:00: 0.7870
2025-01-03 00:00: 0.7785
2025-01-03 02:00: 0.7820
2025-01-03 04:00: 0.7805
2025-01-03 06:00: 0.7815
2025-01-03 08:00: 0.7815
2025-01-03 10:00: 0.7775
2025-01-03 12:00: 0.7815
2025-01-03 14:00: 0.7825
2025-01-03 16:00: 0.7865
2025-01-03 18:00: 0.7865
2025-01-03 20:00: 0.7805
2025-01-03 22:00: 0.7795
2025-01-04 00:00: 0.7880
2025-01-04 02:00: 0.7870
2025-01-04 04:00: 0.7880
2025-01-04 06:00: 0.7940
2025-01-04 08:00: 0.7985
2025-01-04 10:00: 0.7980
2025-01-04 12:00: 0.7940
2025-01-04 14:00: 0.7930
2025-01-04 16:00: 0.7905
2025-01-04 18:00: 0.7900
2025-01-04 20:00: 0.7910
2025-01-04 22:00: 0.7915
2025-01-05 00:00: 0.7925
2025-01-05 02:00: 0.7935
2025-01-05 04:00: 0.7925
2025-01-05 06:00: 0.7925
Trade Summary: Total trades: 1000000, Buy volume: 98180919.36, Sell volume: 41891985.79, Average price: 0.8462, Price range: 0.0020 - 0.9990

Output: No


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 513149
Question: Will Ashley Moody be appointed as the next Florida senator?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 818937.515619
Price History:
2025-01-06 08:00: 0.8285
2025-01-06 10:00: 0.8380
2025-01-06 12:00: 0.8410
2025-01-06 14:00: 0.8405
2025-01-06 16:00: 0.8385
2025-01-06 18:00: 0.8295
2025-01-06 20:00: 0.8495
2025-01-06 22:00: 0.8475
2025-01-07 00:00: 0.8455
2025-01-07 02:00: 0.8385
2025-01-07 04:00: 0.8385
2025-01-07 06:00: 0.8460
2025-01-07 08:00: 0.8475
2025-01-07 10:00: 0.7230
2025-01-07 12:00: 0.7270
2025-01-07 14:00: 0.7205
2025-01-07 16:00: 0.7360
2025-01-07 18:00: 0.7220
2025-01-07 20:00: 0.7210
2025-01-07 22:00: 0.7265
2025-01-08 00:00: 0.7030
2025-01-08 02:00: 0.6835
2025-01-08 04:00: 0.7445
2025-01-08 06:00: 0.6785
2025-01-08 08:00: 0.7430
2025-01-08 10:00: 0.7135
2025-01-08 12:00: 0.7540
2025-01-08 14:00: 0.8340
2025-01-08 16:00: 0.8665
2025-01-08 18:00: 0.8610
2025-01-08 20:00: 0.8610
2025-01-08 22:00: 0.8615
2025-01-09 00:00: 0.8695
2025-01-09 02:00: 0.8665
2025-01-09 04:00: 0.8615
2025-01-09 06:00: 0.8525
2025-01-09 08:00: 0.8480
2025-01-09 10:00: 0.8140
2025-01-09 12:00: 0.8295
2025-01-09 14:00: 0.8115
2025-01-09 16:00: 0.8035
2025-01-09 18:00: 0.8030
2025-01-09 20:00: 0.8030
2025-01-09 22:00: 0.7995
2025-01-10 00:00: 0.8030
2025-01-10 02:00: 0.8015
2025-01-10 04:00: 0.7995
2025-01-10 06:00: 0.7985
2025-01-10 08:00: 0.7965
2025-01-10 10:00: 0.8255
Trade Summary: Total trades: 1000000, Buy volume: 98180919.36, Sell volume: 41891985.79, Average price: 0.8462, Price range: 0.0020 - 0.9990

Output: No


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 513149
Question: Will Ashley Moody be appointed as the next Florida senator?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 818937.515619
Price History:
2025-01-11 12:00: 0.8325
2025-01-11 14:00: 0.8135
2025-01-11 16:00: 0.8415
2025-01-11 18:00: 0.8420
2025-01-11 20:00: 0.8630
2025-01-11 22:00: 0.8090
2025-01-12 00:00: 0.8335
2025-01-12 02:00: 0.8055
2025-01-12 04:00: 0.8210
2025-01-12 06:00: 0.8430
2025-01-12 08:00: 0.8820
2025-01-12 10:00: 0.8035
2025-01-12 12:00: 0.8005
2025-01-12 14:00: 0.7880
2025-01-12 16:00: 0.7875
2025-01-12 18:00: 0.7845
2025-01-12 20:00: 0.7785
2025-01-12 22:00: 0.7875
2025-01-13 00:00: 0.7760
2025-01-13 02:00: 0.7395
2025-01-13 04:00: 0.7435
2025-01-13 06:00: 0.7520
2025-01-13 08:00: 0.7635
2025-01-13 10:00: 0.7640
2025-01-13 12:00: 0.7645
2025-01-13 14:00: 0.7520
2025-01-13 16:00: 0.7605
2025-01-13 18:00: 0.7530
2025-01-13 20:00: 0.7545
2025-01-13 22:00: 0.7525
2025-01-14 00:00: 0.7520
2025-01-14 02:00: 0.7405
2025-01-14 04:00: 0.7505
2025-01-14 06:00: 0.7570
2025-01-14 08:00: 0.7610
2025-01-14 10:00: 0.7610
2025-01-14 12:00: 0.7625
2025-01-14 14:00: 0.7795
2025-01-14 16:00: 0.7695
2025-01-14 18:00: 0.7795
2025-01-14 20:00: 0.7785
2025-01-14 22:00: 0.7695
2025-01-15 00:00: 0.8040
2025-01-15 02:00: 0.8185
2025-01-15 04:00: 0.8375
2025-01-15 06:00: 0.8370
2025-01-15 08:00: 0.8365
2025-01-15 10:00: 0.8220
2025-01-15 12:00: 0.8145
2025-01-15 14:00: 0.8370
Trade Summary: Total trades: 417582, Buy volume: 73767114.57, Sell volume: 12699547.74, Average price: 0.7866, Price range: 0.0030 - 0.9970

Output: No


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 513149
Question: Will Ashley Moody be appointed as the next Florida senator?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 818937.515619
Price History:
2025-01-16 16:00: 0.9915
2025-01-16 18:00: 0.9905
2025-01-16 20:00: 0.9920
2025-01-16 22:00: 0.9920
2025-01-17 00:00: 0.9915
2025-01-17 02:00: 0.9915
2025-01-17 04:00: 0.9905
2025-01-17 06:00: 0.9915
2025-01-17 08:00: 0.9915
2025-01-17 10:00: 0.9905
2025-01-17 12:00: 0.9905
2025-01-17 14:00: 0.9910
2025-01-17 16:00: 0.9915
2025-01-17 18:00: 0.9915
2025-01-17 20:00: 0.9915
2025-01-17 22:00: 0.9915
2025-01-18 00:00: 0.9915
2025-01-18 02:00: 0.9885
2025-01-18 04:00: 0.9900
2025-01-18 06:00: 0.9850
2025-01-18 08:00: 0.9850
2025-01-18 10:00: 0.9865
2025-01-18 12:00: 0.9865
2025-01-18 14:00: 0.9875
2025-01-18 16:00: 0.9870
2025-01-18 18:00: 0.9870
2025-01-18 20:00: 0.9870
2025-01-18 22:00: 0.9905
2025-01-19 00:00: 0.9905
2025-01-19 02:00: 0.9910
2025-01-19 04:00: 0.9915
2025-01-19 06:00: 0.9925
2025-01-19 08:00: 0.9915
2025-01-19 10:00: 0.9915
2025-01-19 12:00: 0.9910
2025-01-19 14:00: 0.9910
2025-01-19 16:00: 0.9830
2025-01-19 18:00: 0.9855
2025-01-19 20:00: 0.9870
2025-01-19 22:00: 0.9870
2025-01-20 00:00: 0.9870
2025-01-20 02:00: 0.9870
2025-01-20 04:00: 0.9860
2025-01-20 06:00: 0.9870
2025-01-20 08:00: 0.9865
2025-01-20 10:00: 0.9870
2025-01-20 12:00: 0.9810
2025-01-20 14:00: 0.9825
2025-01-20 16:00: 0.9895
2025-01-20 18:00: 0.9905
Trade Summary: Total trades: 560420, Buy volume: 22798635.47, Sell volume: 28938022.81, Average price: 0.8990, Price range: 0.0030 - 0.9980

Output: No


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 559666
Question: Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 7475933.873323
Price History:
2025-07-11 15:00: 0.1300
2025-07-18 12:00: 0.4990
2025-07-18 17:00: 0.0160
2025-07-18 21:00: 0.9855
2025-07-19 02:00: 0.0125
2025-07-19 06:00: 0.9850
2025-07-19 11:00: 0.0160
2025-07-19 15:00: 0.9845
2025-07-19 20:00: 0.0150
2025-07-20 00:00: 0.9850
2025-07-20 05:00: 0.0150
2025-07-20 09:00: 0.9850
2025-07-20 14:00: 0.0150
2025-07-20 18:00: 0.9845
2025-07-20 23:00: 0.0155
2025-07-21 03:00: 0.9845
2025-07-21 08:00: 0.0155
2025-07-21 12:00: 0.9845
2025-07-21 17:00: 0.0145
2025-07-21 21:00: 0.9855
2025-07-22 02:00: 0.0140
2025-07-22 06:00: 0.9865
2025-07-22 11:00: 0.0135
2025-07-22 15:00: 0.9865
2025-07-22 20:00: 0.0135
2025-07-23 00:00: 0.9865
2025-07-23 04:00: 0.0135
2025-07-23 08:00: 0.9865
2025-07-23 13:00: 0.0135
2025-07-23 17:00: 0.9865
2025-07-23 22:00: 0.0130
2025-07-24 02:00: 0.9865
2025-07-24 07:00: 0.0130
2025-07-24 11:00: 0.9870
2025-07-24 16:00: 0.0115
2025-07-24 20:00: 0.9885
2025-07-25 01:00: 0.0115
2025-07-25 05:00: 0.9885
2025-07-25 10:00: 0.0115
2025-07-25 14:00: 0.9885
2025-07-25 19:00: 0.0115
2025-07-25 23:00: 0.9885
2025-07-26 04:00: 0.0120
2025-07-26 08:00: 0.9880
2025-07-26 13:00: 0.0115
2025-07-26 17:00: 0.9885
2025-07-26 22:00: 0.0115
2025-07-27 02:00: 0.9885
2025-07-27 07:00: 0.0115
2025-07-27 11:00: 0.9885
Trade Summary: No trades available

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 559666
Question: Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 7475933.873323
Price History:
2025-07-27 22:00: 0.0110
2025-07-28 02:00: 0.9890
2025-07-28 07:00: 0.0110
2025-07-28 11:00: 0.9890
2025-07-28 16:00: 0.0110
2025-07-28 20:00: 0.9890
2025-07-29 01:00: 0.0110
2025-07-29 05:00: 0.9890
2025-07-29 10:00: 0.0110
2025-07-29 14:00: 0.9890
2025-07-29 19:00: 0.0110
2025-07-29 23:00: 0.9890
2025-07-30 04:00: 0.0110
2025-07-30 08:00: 0.9890
2025-07-30 13:00: 0.0110
2025-07-30 17:00: 0.9890
2025-07-30 22:00: 0.0105
2025-07-31 02:00: 0.9890
2025-07-31 07:00: 0.0110
2025-07-31 11:00: 0.9890
2025-07-31 16:00: 0.0110
2025-07-31 20:00: 0.9890
2025-08-01 01:00: 0.0110
2025-08-01 05:00: 0.9890
2025-08-01 10:00: 0.0110
2025-08-01 14:00: 0.9890
2025-08-01 19:00: 0.0110
2025-08-01 23:00: 0.9890
2025-08-02 04:00: 0.0110
2025-08-02 08:00: 0.9890
2025-08-02 13:00: 0.0110
2025-08-02 17:00: 0.9890
2025-08-02 22:00: 0.0110
2025-08-03 02:00: 0.9890
2025-08-03 07:00: 0.0110
2025-08-03 11:00: 0.9890
2025-08-03 16:00: 0.0110
2025-08-03 20:00: 0.9885
2025-08-04 01:00: 0.0115
2025-08-04 05:00: 0.9885
2025-08-04 10:00: 0.0115
2025-08-04 14:00: 0.9890
2025-08-04 19:00: 0.0110
2025-08-04 23:00: 0.9890
2025-08-05 04:00: 0.0110
2025-08-05 08:00: 0.9890
2025-08-05 13:00: 0.0110
2025-08-05 17:00: 0.9890
2025-08-05 22:00: 0.0110
2025-08-06 02:00: 0.9890
Trade Summary: No trades available

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 559666
Question: Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 7475933.873323
Price History:
2025-08-06 13:00: 0.0110
2025-08-06 17:00: 0.0110
2025-08-06 22:00: 0.0115
2025-08-07 02:00: 0.0115
2025-08-07 07:00: 0.0115
2025-08-07 11:00: 0.9885
2025-08-07 16:00: 0.0115
2025-08-07 20:00: 0.0115
2025-08-08 01:00: 0.0115
2025-08-08 05:00: 0.9885
2025-08-08 10:00: 0.0115
2025-08-08 14:00: 0.0115
2025-08-08 19:00: 0.9885
2025-08-08 23:00: 0.0115
2025-08-09 04:00: 0.0115
2025-08-09 08:00: 0.9885
2025-08-09 13:00: 0.0115
2025-08-09 17:00: 0.9885
2025-08-09 22:00: 0.0105
2025-08-10 02:00: 0.9895
2025-08-10 07:00: 0.0105
2025-08-10 11:00: 0.9895
2025-08-10 16:00: 0.0095
2025-08-10 20:00: 0.9905
2025-08-11 01:00: 0.0095
2025-08-11 05:00: 0.9905
2025-08-11 10:00: 0.0095
2025-08-11 14:00: 0.9905
2025-08-11 19:00: 0.0095
2025-08-11 23:00: 0.9905
2025-08-12 04:00: 0.0095
2025-08-12 08:00: 0.0095
2025-08-12 13:00: 0.9905
2025-08-12 17:00: 0.0095
2025-08-12 22:00: 0.0095
2025-08-13 02:00: 0.9905
2025-08-13 07:00: 0.9905
2025-08-13 11:00: 0.9905
2025-08-13 16:00: 0.0095
2025-08-13 20:00: 0.9905
2025-08-14 01:00: 0.0095
2025-08-14 05:00: 0.9905
2025-08-14 10:00: 0.0095
2025-08-14 14:00: 0.9905
2025-08-14 19:00: 0.0095
2025-08-14 23:00: 0.9905
2025-08-15 04:00: 0.0085
2025-08-15 08:00: 0.0085
2025-08-15 13:00: 0.9915
2025-08-15 17:00: 0.0085
Trade Summary: No trades available

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 559666
Question: Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 7475933.873323
Price History:
2025-08-16 04:00: 0.0085
2025-08-16 08:00: 0.9915
2025-08-16 13:00: 0.0085
2025-08-16 17:00: 0.9915
2025-08-16 22:00: 0.9915
2025-08-17 02:00: 0.0085
2025-08-17 07:00: 0.0085
2025-08-17 11:00: 0.9920
2025-08-17 16:00: 0.0080
2025-08-17 20:00: 0.9920
2025-08-18 01:00: 0.0080
2025-08-18 05:00: 0.0080
2025-08-18 10:00: 0.9920
2025-08-18 14:00: 0.0080
2025-08-18 19:00: 0.9920
2025-08-18 23:00: 0.9920
2025-08-19 04:00: 0.0080
2025-08-19 08:00: 0.0085
2025-08-19 13:00: 0.9915
2025-08-19 17:00: 0.0085
2025-08-19 22:00: 0.0085
2025-08-20 02:00: 0.9915
2025-08-20 07:00: 0.0085
2025-08-20 11:00: 0.9915
2025-08-20 16:00: 0.0085
2025-08-20 20:00: 0.9915
2025-08-21 01:00: 0.0060
2025-08-21 05:00: 0.9935
2025-08-21 10:00: 0.0070
2025-08-21 14:00: 0.0055
2025-08-21 19:00: 0.0060
2025-08-21 23:00: 0.9950
2025-08-22 04:00: 0.0045
2025-08-22 08:00: 0.9955
2025-08-22 13:00: 0.0045
2025-08-22 17:00: 0.9955
2025-08-22 22:00: 0.0065
2025-08-23 02:00: 0.9940
2025-08-23 07:00: 0.9935
2025-08-23 11:00: 0.0060
2025-08-23 16:00: 0.9945
2025-08-23 20:00: 0.0065
2025-08-24 01:00: 0.0065
2025-08-24 05:00: 0.9935
2025-08-24 10:00: 0.0065
2025-08-24 14:00: 0.9935
2025-08-24 19:00: 0.0065
2025-08-24 23:00: 0.9935
2025-08-25 04:00: 0.0060
2025-08-25 08:00: 0.0060
Trade Summary: No trades available

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 559666
Question: Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 7475933.873323
Price History:
2025-08-25 19:00: 0.9955
2025-08-25 23:00: 0.9955
2025-08-26 03:00: 0.0055
2025-08-26 07:00: 0.9945
2025-08-26 12:00: 0.9945
2025-08-26 16:00: 0.0065
2025-08-26 21:00: 0.0060
2025-08-27 01:00: 0.9940
2025-08-27 06:00: 0.9945
2025-08-27 10:00: 0.0060
2025-08-27 15:00: 0.0055
2025-08-27 19:00: 0.9945
2025-08-28 00:00: 0.9945
2025-08-28 04:00: 0.0055
2025-08-28 09:00: 0.0055
2025-08-28 13:00: 0.0055
2025-08-28 18:00: 0.9945
2025-08-28 22:00: 0.9935
2025-08-29 03:00: 0.0065
2025-08-29 07:00: 0.0065
2025-08-29 12:00: 0.0065
2025-08-29 16:00: 0.9935
2025-08-29 21:00: 0.0065
2025-08-30 01:00: 0.9935
2025-08-30 06:00: 0.0065
2025-08-30 10:00: 0.9935
2025-08-30 15:00: 0.0065
2025-08-30 19:00: 0.0065
2025-08-31 00:00: 0.0065
2025-08-31 04:00: 0.0065
2025-08-31 09:00: 0.0075
2025-08-31 13:00: 0.9925
2025-08-31 18:00: 0.0075
2025-08-31 22:00: 0.0075
2025-09-01 03:00: 0.0075
2025-09-01 07:00: 0.9925
2025-09-01 12:00: 0.0080
2025-09-01 16:00: 0.9920
2025-09-01 21:00: 0.0075
2025-09-02 01:00: 0.9930
2025-09-02 06:00: 0.0065
2025-09-02 10:00: 0.9935
2025-09-02 15:00: 0.0065
2025-09-02 19:00: 0.9935
2025-09-03 00:00: 0.9940
2025-09-03 04:00: 0.9940
2025-09-03 09:00: 0.0060
2025-09-03 13:00: 0.0060
2025-09-03 18:00: 0.9940
2025-09-03 22:00: 0.0060
Trade Summary: No trades available

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 559666
Question: Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 7475933.873323
Price History:
2025-09-04 09:00: 0.0060
2025-09-04 13:00: 0.9940
2025-09-04 18:00: 0.0060
2025-09-04 22:00: 0.9935
2025-09-05 03:00: 0.0065
2025-09-05 07:00: 0.9935
2025-09-05 12:00: 0.9935
2025-09-05 16:00: 0.0065
2025-09-05 21:00: 0.9945
2025-09-06 01:00: 0.9945
2025-09-06 06:00: 0.9945
2025-09-06 10:00: 0.0060
2025-09-06 15:00: 0.0060
2025-09-06 19:00: 0.9935
2025-09-07 00:00: 0.9935
2025-09-07 04:00: 0.0065
2025-09-07 09:00: 0.0065
2025-09-07 13:00: 0.0065
2025-09-07 18:00: 0.9935
2025-09-07 22:00: 0.0065
2025-09-08 03:00: 0.0065
2025-09-08 07:00: 0.0065
2025-09-08 12:00: 0.0055
2025-09-08 16:00: 0.0055
2025-09-08 21:00: 0.9945
2025-09-09 01:00: 0.0055
2025-09-09 06:00: 0.0055
2025-09-09 10:00: 0.9945
2025-09-09 15:00: 0.0055
2025-09-09 19:00: 0.9945
2025-09-10 00:00: 0.0055
2025-09-10 04:00: 0.9945
2025-09-10 09:00: 0.0055
2025-09-10 13:00: 0.9945
2025-09-10 18:00: 0.0055
2025-09-10 22:00: 0.9945
2025-09-11 03:00: 0.0055
2025-09-11 07:00: 0.0055
2025-09-11 12:00: 0.9945
2025-09-11 16:00: 0.0055
2025-09-11 21:00: 0.9945
2025-09-12 01:00: 0.9945
2025-09-12 06:00: 0.9945
2025-09-12 10:00: 0.0055
2025-09-12 15:00: 0.9945
2025-09-12 19:00: 0.0055
2025-09-13 00:00: 0.9945
2025-09-13 04:00: 0.0055
2025-09-13 09:00: 0.0055
2025-09-13 13:00: 0.9945
Trade Summary: No trades available

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 559666
Question: Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 7475933.873323
Price History:
2025-09-14 00:00: 0.9945
2025-09-14 04:00: 0.9945
2025-09-14 09:00: 0.9945
2025-09-14 13:00: 0.0055
2025-09-14 18:00: 0.0055
2025-09-14 22:00: 0.0055
2025-09-15 03:00: 0.9945
2025-09-15 07:00: 0.9945
2025-09-15 12:00: 0.9945
2025-09-15 16:00: 0.9945
2025-09-15 21:00: 0.9945
2025-09-16 01:00: 0.0055
2025-09-16 06:00: 0.0055
2025-09-16 10:00: 0.9940
2025-09-16 15:00: 0.0055
2025-09-16 19:00: 0.9945
2025-09-17 00:00: 0.0055
2025-09-17 04:00: 0.9945
2025-09-17 09:00: 0.0055
2025-09-17 13:00: 0.9945
2025-09-17 19:00: 0.9945
2025-09-17 23:00: 0.9945
2025-09-18 04:00: 0.0055
2025-09-18 08:00: 0.9945
2025-09-18 13:00: 0.0055
2025-09-18 17:00: 0.9945
2025-09-18 22:00: 0.0055
2025-09-19 02:00: 0.0055
2025-09-19 07:00: 0.0055
2025-09-19 11:00: 0.9945
2025-09-19 16:00: 0.0055
2025-09-19 20:00: 0.9945
2025-09-20 01:00: 0.0055
2025-09-20 05:00: 0.0055
2025-09-20 10:00: 0.0055
2025-09-20 14:00: 0.9945
2025-09-20 19:00: 0.9955
2025-09-20 23:00: 0.9955
2025-09-21 04:00: 0.9955
2025-09-21 08:00: 0.9955
2025-09-21 13:00: 0.9955
2025-09-21 17:00: 0.0045
2025-09-21 22:00: 0.9955
2025-09-22 02:00: 0.0045
2025-09-22 07:00: 0.9955
2025-09-22 11:00: 0.0045
2025-09-22 16:00: 0.9955
2025-09-22 20:00: 0.0045
2025-09-23 01:00: 0.0045
2025-09-23 05:00: 0.9955
Trade Summary: No trades available

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 559666
Question: Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 7475933.873323
Price History:
2025-09-23 16:00: 0.9945
2025-09-23 20:00: 0.9945
2025-09-24 01:00: 0.9945
2025-09-24 05:00: 0.0055
2025-09-24 10:00: 0.9945
2025-09-24 14:00: 0.9945
2025-09-24 19:00: 0.0055
2025-09-24 23:00: 0.0055
2025-09-25 04:00: 0.9945
2025-09-25 08:00: 0.9945
2025-09-25 13:00: 0.9945
2025-09-25 17:00: 0.9945
2025-09-25 22:00: 0.0055
2025-09-26 02:00: 0.9945
2025-09-26 07:00: 0.0055
2025-09-26 11:00: 0.0055
2025-09-26 16:00: 0.9945
2025-09-26 20:00: 0.9945
2025-09-27 01:00: 0.0055
2025-09-27 05:00: 0.9945
2025-09-27 10:00: 0.9935
2025-09-27 14:00: 0.0065
2025-09-27 19:00: 0.0065
2025-09-27 23:00: 0.0065
2025-09-28 04:00: 0.0075
2025-09-28 08:00: 0.9925
2025-09-28 13:00: 0.0075
2025-09-28 17:00: 0.9925
2025-09-28 22:00: 0.0075
2025-09-29 02:00: 0.9925
2025-09-29 07:00: 0.0075
2025-09-29 11:00: 0.9925
2025-09-29 16:00: 0.0075
2025-09-29 20:00: 0.0075
2025-09-30 01:00: 0.9925
2025-09-30 05:00: 0.0075
2025-09-30 10:00: 0.9925
2025-09-30 14:00: 0.0075
2025-09-30 19:00: 0.0075
2025-09-30 23:00: 0.9925
2025-10-01 04:00: 0.9925
2025-10-01 08:00: 0.0075
2025-10-01 13:00: 0.9925
2025-10-01 17:00: 0.0075
2025-10-01 22:00: 0.9925
2025-10-02 02:00: 0.0075
2025-10-02 07:00: 0.9925
2025-10-02 11:00: 0.0075
2025-10-02 16:00: 0.9925
2025-10-02 20:00: 0.0075
Trade Summary: No trades available

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 559666
Question: Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 7475933.873323
Price History:
2025-10-03 07:00: 0.0075
2025-10-03 11:00: 0.9925
2025-10-03 16:00: 0.0065
2025-10-03 20:00: 0.0065
2025-10-04 01:00: 0.0065
2025-10-04 05:00: 0.9935
2025-10-04 10:00: 0.9935
2025-10-04 14:00: 0.9935
2025-10-04 19:00: 0.0065
2025-10-04 23:00: 0.9935
2025-10-05 04:00: 0.0065
2025-10-05 08:00: 0.9935
2025-10-05 13:00: 0.0065
2025-10-05 17:00: 0.9935
2025-10-05 22:00: 0.9935
2025-10-06 02:00: 0.9935
2025-10-06 07:00: 0.0065
2025-10-06 11:00: 0.0065
2025-10-06 16:00: 0.0065
2025-10-06 20:00: 0.9935
2025-10-07 01:00: 0.0065
2025-10-07 05:00: 0.0065
2025-10-07 10:00: 0.0065
2025-10-07 14:00: 0.9935
2025-10-07 19:00: 0.0065
2025-10-07 23:00: 0.0065
2025-10-08 04:00: 0.9935
2025-10-08 08:00: 0.0075
2025-10-08 13:00: 0.9925
2025-10-08 17:00: 0.9925
2025-10-08 22:00: 0.9925
2025-10-09 02:00: 0.0075
2025-10-09 07:00: 0.0065
2025-10-09 11:00: 0.9935
2025-10-09 16:00: 0.0075
2025-10-09 20:00: 0.9925
2025-10-10 01:00: 0.0075
2025-10-10 05:00: 0.0075
2025-10-10 10:00: 0.0075
2025-10-10 14:00: 0.9925
2025-10-10 19:00: 0.0075
2025-10-10 23:00: 0.9925
2025-10-11 04:00: 0.9925
2025-10-11 08:00: 0.0075
2025-10-11 13:00: 0.9925
2025-10-11 17:00: 0.0075
2025-10-11 22:00: 0.9925
2025-10-12 02:00: 0.0075
2025-10-12 07:00: 0.0085
2025-10-12 11:00: 0.9915
Trade Summary: No trades available

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 559666
Question: Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 7475933.873323
Price History:
2025-10-12 22:00: 0.0085
2025-10-13 02:00: 0.9915
2025-10-13 07:00: 0.9915
2025-10-13 11:00: 0.9915
2025-10-13 16:00: 0.9915
2025-10-13 20:00: 0.0085
2025-10-14 01:00: 0.9915
2025-10-14 05:00: 0.0085
2025-10-14 10:00: 0.9915
2025-10-14 14:00: 0.0095
2025-10-14 19:00: 0.0095
2025-10-14 23:00: 0.0095
2025-10-15 04:00: 0.0095
2025-10-15 08:00: 0.9905
2025-10-15 13:00: 0.0095
2025-10-15 17:00: 0.9915
2025-10-15 22:00: 0.0085
2025-10-16 02:00: 0.9915
2025-10-16 07:00: 0.0095
2025-10-16 11:00: 0.9915
2025-10-16 16:00: 0.0085
2025-10-16 20:00: 0.9915
2025-10-17 01:00: 0.9915
2025-10-17 05:00: 0.0085
2025-10-17 10:00: 0.9915
2025-10-17 14:00: 0.0085
2025-10-17 19:00: 0.9915
2025-10-17 23:00: 0.0085
2025-10-18 04:00: 0.9915
2025-10-18 08:00: 0.0085
2025-10-18 13:00: 0.9915
2025-10-18 17:00: 0.0085
2025-10-18 22:00: 0.0085
2025-10-19 02:00: 0.0085
2025-10-19 07:00: 0.9905
2025-10-19 11:00: 0.0095
2025-10-19 16:00: 0.9905
2025-10-19 20:00: 0.0095
2025-10-20 01:00: 0.0095
2025-10-20 05:00: 0.0085
2025-10-20 10:00: 0.9915
2025-10-20 14:00: 0.0085
2025-10-20 19:00: 0.9915
2025-10-20 23:00: 0.0085
2025-10-21 04:00: 0.0085
2025-10-21 08:00: 0.9915
2025-10-21 13:00: 0.9915
2025-10-21 17:00: 0.9915
2025-10-21 22:00: 0.9915
2025-10-22 02:00: 0.0085
Trade Summary: No trades available

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 559666
Question: Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 7475933.873323
Price History:
2025-10-22 13:00: 0.9915
2025-10-22 17:00: 0.0085
2025-10-22 22:00: 0.9915
2025-10-23 02:00: 0.0085
2025-10-23 07:00: 0.9915
2025-10-23 11:00: 0.0085
2025-10-23 16:00: 0.9915
2025-10-23 20:00: 0.0085
2025-10-24 01:00: 0.9915
2025-10-24 05:00: 0.0085
2025-10-24 10:00: 0.9915
2025-10-24 14:00: 0.0085
2025-10-24 19:00: 0.9915
2025-10-24 23:00: 0.0085
2025-10-25 04:00: 0.9915
2025-10-25 08:00: 0.0085
2025-10-25 13:00: 0.9915
2025-10-25 17:00: 0.0085
2025-10-25 22:00: 0.9915
2025-10-26 02:00: 0.0085
2025-10-26 07:00: 0.9915
2025-10-26 11:00: 0.0085
2025-10-26 16:00: 0.9915
2025-10-26 20:00: 0.0085
2025-10-27 01:00: 0.9915
2025-10-27 05:00: 0.0065
2025-10-27 10:00: 0.9935
2025-10-27 14:00: 0.0065
2025-10-27 19:00: 0.9935
2025-10-27 23:00: 0.0065
2025-10-28 04:00: 0.9935
2025-10-28 08:00: 0.0065
2025-10-28 13:00: 0.9935
2025-10-28 17:00: 0.0065
2025-10-28 22:00: 0.9935
2025-10-29 02:00: 0.0065
2025-10-29 11:00: 0.9935
2025-10-29 15:00: 0.0065
2025-10-29 20:00: 0.9935
2025-10-30 00:00: 0.0065
2025-10-30 05:00: 0.9935
2025-10-30 09:00: 0.0065
2025-10-30 14:00: 0.9935
2025-10-30 18:00: 0.0065
2025-10-30 23:00: 0.9935
2025-10-31 03:00: 0.0065
2025-10-31 08:00: 0.9935
2025-10-31 12:00: 0.0065
2025-10-31 17:00: 0.9935
2025-10-31 21:00: 0.0065
Trade Summary: No trades available

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 559666
Question: Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 7475933.873323
Price History:
2025-11-01 08:00: 0.9935
2025-11-01 12:00: 0.0065
2025-11-01 17:00: 0.9935
2025-11-01 21:00: 0.0065
2025-11-02 01:00: 0.9935
2025-11-02 05:00: 0.0065
2025-11-02 10:00: 0.9935
2025-11-02 14:00: 0.0065
2025-11-02 19:00: 0.9935
2025-11-02 23:00: 0.0065
2025-11-03 04:00: 0.9935
2025-11-03 08:00: 0.0065
2025-11-03 13:00: 0.9935
2025-11-03 17:00: 0.0065
2025-11-03 22:00: 0.9935
2025-11-04 02:00: 0.0065
2025-11-04 07:00: 0.9935
2025-11-04 11:00: 0.0065
2025-11-04 16:00: 0.9935
2025-11-04 20:00: 0.0065
2025-11-05 01:00: 0.9935
2025-11-05 05:00: 0.0065
2025-11-05 10:00: 0.9935
2025-11-05 14:00: 0.0065
2025-11-05 19:00: 0.9935
2025-11-05 23:00: 0.0065
2025-11-06 04:00: 0.9935
2025-11-06 08:00: 0.0065
2025-11-06 13:00: 0.9935
2025-11-06 17:00: 0.0065
2025-11-06 22:00: 0.9935
2025-11-07 02:00: 0.0065
2025-11-07 07:00: 0.9935
2025-11-07 11:00: 0.0065
2025-11-07 16:00: 0.9935
2025-11-07 20:00: 0.0065
2025-11-08 01:00: 0.9935
2025-11-08 05:00: 0.0065
2025-11-08 10:00: 0.9935
2025-11-08 14:00: 0.0055
2025-11-08 19:00: 0.9945
2025-11-08 23:00: 0.0055
2025-11-09 04:00: 0.9945
2025-11-09 08:00: 0.0055
2025-11-09 13:00: 0.9945
2025-11-09 17:00: 0.0055
2025-11-09 22:00: 0.9945
2025-11-10 02:00: 0.0055
2025-11-10 07:00: 0.9945
2025-11-10 11:00: 0.0055
Trade Summary: No trades available

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 559666
Question: Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 7475933.873323
Price History:
2025-11-10 22:00: 0.9945
2025-11-11 02:00: 0.0055
2025-11-11 07:00: 0.9945
2025-11-11 11:00: 0.0055
2025-11-11 16:00: 0.9945
2025-11-11 20:00: 0.0055
2025-11-12 01:00: 0.9945
2025-11-12 05:00: 0.0055
2025-11-12 10:00: 0.9945
2025-11-12 14:00: 0.0055
2025-11-12 19:00: 0.9945
2025-11-12 23:00: 0.0055
2025-11-13 04:00: 0.9945
2025-11-13 08:00: 0.0055
2025-11-13 13:00: 0.9945
2025-11-13 17:00: 0.0055
2025-11-13 22:00: 0.9945
2025-11-14 02:00: 0.0055
2025-11-14 07:00: 0.9945
2025-11-14 11:00: 0.0055
2025-11-14 16:00: 0.9945
2025-11-14 20:00: 0.0055
2025-11-15 01:00: 0.9945
2025-11-15 05:00: 0.0055
2025-11-15 10:00: 0.9945
2025-11-15 14:00: 0.0055
2025-11-15 19:00: 0.9945
2025-11-15 23:00: 0.0055
2025-11-16 04:00: 0.9945
2025-11-16 08:00: 0.0055
2025-11-16 13:00: 0.9945
2025-11-16 17:00: 0.0055
2025-11-16 22:00: 0.9945
2025-11-17 02:00: 0.0055
2025-11-17 07:00: 0.9945
2025-11-17 11:00: 0.0055
2025-11-17 16:00: 0.9945
2025-11-17 20:00: 0.0055
2025-11-18 01:00: 0.9945
2025-11-18 05:00: 0.0055
2025-11-18 10:00: 0.9945
2025-11-18 14:00: 0.0055
2025-11-18 19:00: 0.9945
2025-11-18 23:00: 0.0055
2025-11-19 04:00: 0.9945
2025-11-19 08:00: 0.0055
2025-11-19 13:00: 0.9945
2025-11-19 17:00: 0.0055
2025-11-19 22:00: 0.9945
2025-11-20 02:00: 0.0055
Trade Summary: No trades available

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 700140
Question: Will Lewis Hamilton get pole position at the 2025 F1 Qatar Grand Prix?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 10049.378636
Price History:
2025-11-24 09:00: 0.5000
2025-11-24 09:00: 0.5000
2025-11-24 10:00: 0.1400
2025-11-24 10:00: 0.8600
2025-11-24 11:00: 0.1400
2025-11-24 11:00: 0.8600
2025-11-24 12:00: 0.1400
2025-11-24 12:00: 0.8600
2025-11-24 13:00: 0.1400
2025-11-24 13:00: 0.8600
2025-11-24 14:00: 0.0300
2025-11-24 14:00: 0.9700
2025-11-24 15:00: 0.0300
2025-11-24 15:00: 0.9700
2025-11-24 16:00: 0.0300
2025-11-24 16:00: 0.9700
2025-11-24 17:00: 0.0300
2025-11-24 17:00: 0.9700
2025-11-24 18:00: 0.0305
2025-11-24 18:00: 0.9695
Trade Summary: Total trades: 63, Buy volume: 7815.66, Sell volume: 2233.72, Average price: 0.8548, Price range: 0.0010 - 0.9990

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 700140
Question: Will Lewis Hamilton get pole position at the 2025 F1 Qatar Grand Prix?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 10049.378636
Price History:
2025-11-24 19:00: 0.0305
2025-11-24 19:00: 0.9695
2025-11-24 20:00: 0.0305
2025-11-24 20:00: 0.9695
2025-11-24 21:00: 0.0305
2025-11-24 21:00: 0.9695
2025-11-24 22:00: 0.0305
2025-11-24 22:00: 0.9695
2025-11-24 23:00: 0.0305
2025-11-24 23:00: 0.9695
2025-11-25 00:00: 0.0305
2025-11-25 00:00: 0.9695
2025-11-25 01:00: 0.0305
2025-11-25 01:00: 0.9695
2025-11-25 02:00: 0.0305
2025-11-25 02:00: 0.9695
2025-11-25 03:00: 0.0305
2025-11-25 03:00: 0.9695
2025-11-25 04:00: 0.0305
2025-11-25 04:00: 0.9695
Trade Summary: Total trades: 63, Buy volume: 7815.66, Sell volume: 2233.72, Average price: 0.8548, Price range: 0.0010 - 0.9990

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 700140
Question: Will Lewis Hamilton get pole position at the 2025 F1 Qatar Grand Prix?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 10049.378636
Price History:
2025-11-25 05:00: 0.0305
2025-11-25 05:00: 0.9695
2025-11-25 06:00: 0.0305
2025-11-25 06:00: 0.9695
2025-11-25 07:00: 0.0305
2025-11-25 07:00: 0.9695
2025-11-25 08:00: 0.0305
2025-11-25 08:00: 0.9695
2025-11-25 09:00: 0.0305
2025-11-25 09:00: 0.9695
2025-11-25 10:00: 0.0305
2025-11-25 10:00: 0.9695
2025-11-25 11:00: 0.0305
2025-11-25 11:00: 0.9695
2025-11-25 12:00: 0.0305
2025-11-25 12:00: 0.9695
2025-11-25 13:00: 0.0550
2025-11-25 13:00: 0.9450
2025-11-25 14:00: 0.0550
2025-11-25 14:00: 0.9450
Trade Summary: Total trades: 63, Buy volume: 7815.66, Sell volume: 2233.72, Average price: 0.8548, Price range: 0.0010 - 0.9990

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 700140
Question: Will Lewis Hamilton get pole position at the 2025 F1 Qatar Grand Prix?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 10049.378636
Price History:
2025-11-25 15:00: 0.0550
2025-11-25 15:00: 0.9450
2025-11-25 16:00: 0.0550
2025-11-25 16:00: 0.9450
2025-11-25 17:00: 0.0550
2025-11-25 17:00: 0.9450
2025-11-25 18:00: 0.0550
2025-11-25 18:00: 0.9450
2025-11-25 19:00: 0.0550
2025-11-25 19:00: 0.9450
2025-11-25 20:00: 0.0555
2025-11-25 20:00: 0.9445
2025-11-25 21:00: 0.0555
2025-11-25 21:00: 0.9445
2025-11-25 22:00: 0.0555
2025-11-25 22:00: 0.9445
2025-11-25 23:00: 0.0555
2025-11-25 23:00: 0.9445
2025-11-26 00:00: 0.0555
2025-11-26 00:00: 0.9445
Trade Summary: Total trades: 63, Buy volume: 7815.66, Sell volume: 2233.72, Average price: 0.8548, Price range: 0.0010 - 0.9990

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 700140
Question: Will Lewis Hamilton get pole position at the 2025 F1 Qatar Grand Prix?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 10049.378636
Price History:
2025-11-26 01:00: 0.0555
2025-11-26 01:00: 0.9445
2025-11-26 02:00: 0.1395
2025-11-26 02:00: 0.8605
2025-11-26 03:00: 0.1365
2025-11-26 03:00: 0.8635
2025-11-26 04:00: 0.1330
2025-11-26 04:00: 0.8670
2025-11-26 05:00: 0.1280
2025-11-26 05:00: 0.8720
2025-11-26 06:00: 0.1200
2025-11-26 06:00: 0.8800
2025-11-26 07:00: 0.1080
2025-11-26 07:00: 0.8920
2025-11-26 08:00: 0.1035
2025-11-26 08:00: 0.8965
2025-11-26 09:00: 0.1020
2025-11-26 09:00: 0.8980
2025-11-26 10:00: 0.1020
2025-11-26 10:00: 0.8980
Trade Summary: Total trades: 1, Buy volume: 4.88, Sell volume: 0.00, Average price: 0.9890, Price range: 0.9890 - 0.9890

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 700140
Question: Will Lewis Hamilton get pole position at the 2025 F1 Qatar Grand Prix?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 10049.378636
Price History:
2025-11-26 11:00: 0.1015
2025-11-26 11:00: 0.8985
2025-11-26 12:00: 0.4685
2025-11-26 12:00: 0.5315
2025-11-26 13:00: 0.4545
2025-11-26 13:00: 0.5455
2025-11-26 14:00: 0.4435
2025-11-26 14:00: 0.5565
2025-11-26 15:00: 0.4295
2025-11-26 15:00: 0.5705
2025-11-26 16:00: 0.4180
2025-11-26 16:00: 0.5820
2025-11-26 17:00: 0.4060
2025-11-26 17:00: 0.5940
2025-11-26 18:00: 0.3930
2025-11-26 18:00: 0.6070
2025-11-26 19:00: 0.3805
2025-11-26 19:00: 0.6195
2025-11-26 20:00: 0.3670
2025-11-26 20:00: 0.6330
Trade Summary: Total trades: 3, Buy volume: 50.62, Sell volume: 0.00, Average price: 0.9900, Price range: 0.9900 - 0.9900

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 700140
Question: Will Lewis Hamilton get pole position at the 2025 F1 Qatar Grand Prix?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 10049.378636
Price History:
2025-11-26 21:00: 0.3510
2025-11-26 21:00: 0.6490
2025-11-26 22:00: 0.3370
2025-11-26 22:00: 0.6630
2025-11-26 23:00: 0.3245
2025-11-26 23:00: 0.6755
2025-11-27 00:00: 0.3115
2025-11-27 00:00: 0.6885
2025-11-27 01:00: 0.2970
2025-11-27 01:00: 0.7030
2025-11-27 02:00: 0.2825
2025-11-27 02:00: 0.7175
2025-11-27 03:00: 0.2670
2025-11-27 03:00: 0.7330
2025-11-27 04:00: 0.2550
2025-11-27 04:00: 0.7450
2025-11-27 05:00: 0.2440
2025-11-27 05:00: 0.7560
2025-11-27 06:00: 0.2265
2025-11-27 06:00: 0.7735
Trade Summary: Total trades: 4, Buy volume: 26.10, Sell volume: 0.00, Average price: 0.9897, Price range: 0.9890 - 0.9900

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 700140
Question: Will Lewis Hamilton get pole position at the 2025 F1 Qatar Grand Prix?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 10049.378636
Price History:
2025-11-27 07:00: 0.1820
2025-11-27 07:00: 0.8180
2025-11-27 08:00: 0.1710
2025-11-27 08:00: 0.8290
2025-11-27 09:00: 0.1670
2025-11-27 09:00: 0.8330
2025-11-27 10:00: 0.1520
2025-11-27 10:00: 0.8480
2025-11-27 11:00: 0.1420
2025-11-27 11:00: 0.8580
2025-11-27 12:00: 0.1330
2025-11-27 12:00: 0.8670
2025-11-27 13:00: 0.1270
2025-11-27 13:00: 0.8730
2025-11-27 14:00: 0.1210
2025-11-27 14:00: 0.8790
2025-11-27 15:00: 0.1155
2025-11-27 15:00: 0.8845
2025-11-27 16:00: 0.1040
2025-11-27 16:00: 0.8960
Trade Summary: Total trades: 1, Buy volume: 23.62, Sell volume: 0.00, Average price: 0.9980, Price range: 0.9980 - 0.9980

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 700140
Question: Will Lewis Hamilton get pole position at the 2025 F1 Qatar Grand Prix?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 10049.378636
Price History:
2025-11-27 17:00: 0.0960
2025-11-27 17:00: 0.9040
2025-11-27 18:00: 0.0885
2025-11-27 18:00: 0.9115
2025-11-27 19:00: 0.0870
2025-11-27 19:00: 0.9130
2025-11-27 20:00: 0.0865
2025-11-27 20:00: 0.9135
2025-11-27 21:00: 0.0850
2025-11-27 21:00: 0.9150
2025-11-27 22:00: 0.0815
2025-11-27 22:00: 0.9185
2025-11-27 23:00: 0.0655
2025-11-27 23:00: 0.9345
2025-11-28 00:00: 0.0590
2025-11-28 00:00: 0.9410
2025-11-28 01:00: 0.0575
2025-11-28 01:00: 0.9425
2025-11-28 02:00: 0.0575
2025-11-28 02:00: 0.9425
Trade Summary: Total trades: 63, Buy volume: 7815.66, Sell volume: 2233.72, Average price: 0.8548, Price range: 0.0010 - 0.9990

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 700140
Question: Will Lewis Hamilton get pole position at the 2025 F1 Qatar Grand Prix?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 10049.378636
Price History:
2025-11-28 03:00: 0.0575
2025-11-28 03:00: 0.9425
2025-11-28 04:00: 0.0575
2025-11-28 04:00: 0.9425
2025-11-28 05:00: 0.0575
2025-11-28 05:00: 0.9425
2025-11-28 06:00: 0.0575
2025-11-28 06:00: 0.9425
2025-11-28 07:00: 0.0575
2025-11-28 07:00: 0.9425
2025-11-28 08:00: 0.0575
2025-11-28 08:00: 0.9425
2025-11-28 09:00: 0.0575
2025-11-28 09:00: 0.9425
2025-11-28 10:00: 0.0575
2025-11-28 10:00: 0.9425
2025-11-28 11:00: 0.0570
2025-11-28 11:00: 0.9430
2025-11-28 12:00: 0.0570
2025-11-28 12:00: 0.9430
Trade Summary: Total trades: 7, Buy volume: 71.36, Sell volume: 0.00, Average price: 0.9983, Price range: 0.9980 - 0.9990

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 700140
Question: Will Lewis Hamilton get pole position at the 2025 F1 Qatar Grand Prix?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 10049.378636
Price History:
2025-11-28 13:00: 0.0570
2025-11-28 13:00: 0.9430
2025-11-28 14:00: 0.0505
2025-11-28 14:00: 0.9495
2025-11-28 15:00: 0.0255
2025-11-28 15:00: 0.9745
2025-11-28 16:00: 0.0255
2025-11-28 16:00: 0.9745
2025-11-28 17:00: 0.0255
2025-11-28 17:00: 0.9745
2025-11-28 18:00: 0.0505
2025-11-28 18:00: 0.9495
2025-11-28 19:00: 0.0510
2025-11-28 19:00: 0.9490
2025-11-28 20:00: 0.0510
2025-11-28 20:00: 0.9490
2025-11-28 21:00: 0.0510
2025-11-28 21:00: 0.9490
2025-11-28 22:00: 0.0510
2025-11-28 22:00: 0.9490
Trade Summary: Total trades: 4, Buy volume: 61.59, Sell volume: 0.00, Average price: 0.9982, Price range: 0.9980 - 0.9990

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 700140
Question: Will Lewis Hamilton get pole position at the 2025 F1 Qatar Grand Prix?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 10049.378636
Price History:
2025-11-28 23:00: 0.0510
2025-11-28 23:00: 0.9490
2025-11-29 00:00: 0.0510
2025-11-29 00:00: 0.9490
2025-11-29 01:00: 0.0510
2025-11-29 01:00: 0.9490
2025-11-29 02:00: 0.0510
2025-11-29 02:00: 0.9490
2025-11-29 03:00: 0.0445
2025-11-29 03:00: 0.9555
2025-11-29 04:00: 0.0445
2025-11-29 04:00: 0.9555
2025-11-29 05:00: 0.0445
2025-11-29 05:00: 0.9555
2025-11-29 06:00: 0.0445
2025-11-29 06:00: 0.9555
2025-11-29 07:00: 0.0435
2025-11-29 07:00: 0.9565
2025-11-29 08:00: 0.0390
2025-11-29 08:00: 0.9610
Trade Summary: Total trades: 2, Buy volume: 59.08, Sell volume: 0.00, Average price: 0.9980, Price range: 0.9980 - 0.9980

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 700140
Question: Will Lewis Hamilton get pole position at the 2025 F1 Qatar Grand Prix?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 10049.378636
Price History:
2025-11-29 09:00: 0.0285
2025-11-29 09:00: 0.9715
2025-11-29 10:00: 0.0445
2025-11-29 10:00: 0.9555
2025-11-29 11:00: 0.0160
2025-11-29 11:00: 0.9840
2025-11-29 12:00: 0.0155
2025-11-29 12:00: 0.9845
2025-11-29 13:00: 0.0155
2025-11-29 13:00: 0.9845
2025-11-29 14:00: 0.0050
2025-11-29 14:00: 0.9950
2025-11-29 15:00: 0.0050
2025-11-29 15:00: 0.9950
2025-11-29 16:00: 0.0050
2025-11-29 16:00: 0.9950
2025-11-29 17:00: 0.0005
2025-11-29 17:00: 0.9995
2025-11-29 18:00: 0.0005
2025-11-29 18:00: 0.9995
Trade Summary: Total trades: 38, Buy volume: 7472.34, Sell volume: 2233.72, Average price: 0.7622, Price range: 0.0010 - 0.9990

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 513149
Question: Will Ashley Moody be appointed as the next Florida senator?
Volume: 818937.515619
Price History:
2024-11-15 16:00: 0.3800
2024-11-15 20:00: 0.0515
2024-11-16 00:00: 0.5505
2024-11-16 04:00: 0.0865
2024-11-16 08:00: 0.0740
2024-11-16 12:00: 0.0645
2024-11-16 16:00: 0.0645
2024-11-16 20:00: 0.0655
2024-11-17 00:00: 0.0670
2024-11-17 04:00: 0.0640
2024-11-17 08:00: 0.0655
2024-11-17 12:00: 0.1145
2024-11-17 16:00: 0.1375
2024-11-17 20:00: 0.1140
2024-11-18 00:00: 0.1065
2024-11-18 04:00: 0.1175
2024-11-18 08:00: 0.1150
2024-11-18 12:00: 0.1145
2024-11-18 16:00: 0.1145
2024-11-18 20:00: 0.1150
2024-11-19 00:00: 0.1155
2024-11-19 04:00: 0.1150
2024-11-19 08:00: 0.1170
2024-11-19 12:00: 0.1170
2024-11-19 16:00: 0.1175
2024-11-19 20:00: 0.1185
2024-11-20 00:00: 0.1195
2024-11-20 04:00: 0.1195
2024-11-20 08:00: 0.1200
2024-11-20 12:00: 0.1175
Trade Summary: Total trades: 1000000, Buy volume: 98180919.36, Sell volume: 41891985.79, Average price: 0.8462, Price range: 0.0020 - 0.9990
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike, wash_trading

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 513149
Question: Will Ashley Moody be appointed as the next Florida senator?
Volume: 818937.515619
Price History:
2024-11-20 20:00: 0.1175
2024-11-21 00:00: 0.1175
2024-11-21 04:00: 0.1180
2024-11-21 08:00: 0.1180
2024-11-21 12:00: 0.1180
2024-11-21 16:00: 0.1015
2024-11-21 20:00: 0.0935
2024-11-22 00:00: 0.2790
2024-11-22 04:00: 0.2125
2024-11-22 08:00: 0.2120
2024-11-22 12:00: 0.1295
2024-11-22 16:00: 0.1295
2024-11-22 20:00: 0.1120
2024-11-23 00:00: 0.1045
2024-11-23 04:00: 0.1505
2024-11-23 08:00: 0.1470
2024-11-23 12:00: 0.5100
2024-11-23 16:00: 0.4290
2024-11-23 20:00: 0.1605
2024-11-24 00:00: 0.1585
2024-11-24 04:00: 0.1585
2024-11-24 08:00: 0.1650
2024-11-24 12:00: 0.1645
2024-11-24 16:00: 0.1700
2024-11-24 20:00: 0.1650
2024-11-25 00:00: 0.1640
2024-11-25 04:00: 0.1525
2024-11-25 08:00: 0.1500
2024-11-25 12:00: 0.1495
2024-11-25 16:00: 0.1430
Trade Summary: Total trades: 1000000, Buy volume: 98180919.36, Sell volume: 41891985.79, Average price: 0.8462, Price range: 0.0020 - 0.9990
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike, wash_trading

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 513149
Question: Will Ashley Moody be appointed as the next Florida senator?
Volume: 818937.515619
Price History:
2024-11-26 00:00: 0.1425
2024-11-26 04:00: 0.1430
2024-11-26 08:00: 0.1430
2024-11-26 12:00: 0.1300
2024-11-26 16:00: 0.1295
2024-11-26 20:00: 0.1200
2024-11-27 00:00: 0.1420
2024-11-27 04:00: 0.1330
2024-11-27 08:00: 0.1400
2024-11-27 12:00: 0.1415
2024-11-27 16:00: 0.2490
2024-11-27 20:00: 0.2435
2024-11-28 00:00: 0.1900
2024-11-28 04:00: 0.2185
2024-11-28 08:00: 0.1975
2024-11-28 12:00: 0.1930
2024-11-28 16:00: 0.2025
2024-11-28 20:00: 0.2250
2024-11-29 00:00: 0.2275
2024-11-29 04:00: 0.2325
2024-11-29 08:00: 0.2325
2024-11-29 12:00: 0.1705
2024-11-29 16:00: 0.2260
2024-11-29 20:00: 0.1785
2024-11-30 00:00: 0.2125
2024-11-30 04:00: 0.1795
2024-11-30 08:00: 0.1765
2024-11-30 12:00: 0.1765
2024-11-30 16:00: 0.1765
2024-11-30 20:00: 0.1775
Trade Summary: Total trades: 1000000, Buy volume: 98180919.36, Sell volume: 41891985.79, Average price: 0.8462, Price range: 0.0020 - 0.9990
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike, wash_trading

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 513149
Question: Will Ashley Moody be appointed as the next Florida senator?
Volume: 818937.515619
Price History:
2024-12-01 04:00: 0.1585
2024-12-01 08:00: 0.1585
2024-12-01 12:00: 0.1585
2024-12-01 16:00: 0.1585
2024-12-01 20:00: 0.1585
2024-12-02 00:00: 0.1585
2024-12-02 04:00: 0.1585
2024-12-02 08:00: 0.1585
2024-12-02 12:00: 0.1585
2024-12-02 16:00: 0.1585
2024-12-02 20:00: 0.1385
2024-12-03 00:00: 0.1370
2024-12-03 04:00: 0.1370
2024-12-03 08:00: 0.1370
2024-12-03 12:00: 0.1370
2024-12-03 16:00: 0.1710
2024-12-03 20:00: 0.1410
2024-12-04 00:00: 0.1455
2024-12-04 04:00: 0.1450
2024-12-04 08:00: 0.1450
2024-12-04 12:00: 0.1450
2024-12-04 16:00: 0.1700
2024-12-04 20:00: 0.1925
2024-12-05 00:00: 0.2945
2024-12-05 04:00: 0.2080
2024-12-05 08:00: 0.2155
2024-12-05 12:00: 0.2360
2024-12-05 16:00: 0.2295
2024-12-05 20:00: 0.2185
2024-12-06 00:00: 0.1655
Trade Summary: Total trades: 1000000, Buy volume: 98180919.36, Sell volume: 41891985.79, Average price: 0.8462, Price range: 0.0020 - 0.9990
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike, wash_trading

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 513149
Question: Will Ashley Moody be appointed as the next Florida senator?
Volume: 818937.515619
Price History:
2024-12-06 08:00: 0.1760
2024-12-06 12:00: 0.2250
2024-12-06 16:00: 0.2550
2024-12-06 20:00: 0.2350
2024-12-07 00:00: 0.1770
2024-12-07 04:00: 0.1820
2024-12-07 08:00: 0.1790
2024-12-07 12:00: 0.2800
2024-12-07 16:00: 0.3090
2024-12-07 20:00: 0.2825
2024-12-08 00:00: 0.2740
2024-12-08 04:00: 0.2790
2024-12-08 08:00: 0.2790
2024-12-08 12:00: 0.3340
2024-12-08 16:00: 0.3340
2024-12-08 20:00: 0.3310
2024-12-09 00:00: 0.2820
2024-12-09 04:00: 0.3120
2024-12-09 08:00: 0.3125
2024-12-09 12:00: 0.2545
2024-12-09 16:00: 0.1505
2024-12-09 20:00: 0.2095
2024-12-10 00:00: 0.2625
2024-12-10 04:00: 0.2050
2024-12-10 08:00: 0.2550
2024-12-10 12:00: 0.2320
2024-12-10 16:00: 0.1730
2024-12-10 20:00: 0.1700
2024-12-11 00:00: 0.2350
2024-12-11 04:00: 0.2360
Trade Summary: Total trades: 1000000, Buy volume: 98180919.36, Sell volume: 41891985.79, Average price: 0.8462, Price range: 0.0020 - 0.9990
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike, wash_trading

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 513149
Question: Will Ashley Moody be appointed as the next Florida senator?
Volume: 818937.515619
Price History:
2024-12-11 12:00: 0.2310
2024-12-11 16:00: 0.2475
2024-12-11 20:00: 0.2500
2024-12-12 00:00: 0.1815
2024-12-12 04:00: 0.1995
2024-12-12 08:00: 0.1995
2024-12-12 12:00: 0.2140
2024-12-12 16:00: 0.2640
2024-12-12 20:00: 0.2440
2024-12-13 00:00: 0.2630
2024-12-13 04:00: 0.2365
2024-12-13 08:00: 0.2190
2024-12-13 12:00: 0.1965
2024-12-13 16:00: 0.1960
2024-12-13 20:00: 0.1960
2024-12-14 00:00: 0.2855
2024-12-14 04:00: 0.3100
2024-12-14 08:00: 0.3450
2024-12-14 12:00: 0.3110
2024-12-14 16:00: 0.3190
2024-12-14 20:00: 0.3205
2024-12-15 00:00: 0.3260
2024-12-15 04:00: 0.3265
2024-12-15 08:00: 0.3260
2024-12-15 12:00: 0.3235
2024-12-15 16:00: 0.3185
2024-12-15 20:00: 0.3205
2024-12-16 00:00: 0.3230
2024-12-16 04:00: 0.3135
2024-12-16 08:00: 0.2975
Trade Summary: Total trades: 1000000, Buy volume: 98180919.36, Sell volume: 41891985.79, Average price: 0.8462, Price range: 0.0020 - 0.9990
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike, wash_trading

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 513149
Question: Will Ashley Moody be appointed as the next Florida senator?
Volume: 818937.515619
Price History:
2024-12-16 16:00: 0.4985
2024-12-16 20:00: 0.5700
2024-12-17 00:00: 0.5390
2024-12-17 04:00: 0.5690
2024-12-17 08:00: 0.5750
2024-12-17 12:00: 0.5240
2024-12-17 16:00: 0.5385
2024-12-17 20:00: 0.5335
2024-12-18 00:00: 0.5350
2024-12-18 04:00: 0.5350
2024-12-18 08:00: 0.5705
2024-12-18 12:00: 0.7125
2024-12-18 16:00: 0.5755
2024-12-18 20:00: 0.5820
2024-12-19 00:00: 0.6940
2024-12-19 04:00: 0.3360
2024-12-19 08:00: 0.3220
2024-12-19 12:00: 0.5050
2024-12-19 16:00: 0.5150
2024-12-19 20:00: 0.6155
2024-12-20 00:00: 0.6220
2024-12-20 04:00: 0.6335
2024-12-20 08:00: 0.6200
2024-12-20 12:00: 0.6205
2024-12-20 16:00: 0.5775
2024-12-20 20:00: 0.6110
2024-12-21 00:00: 0.6140
2024-12-21 04:00: 0.5795
2024-12-21 08:00: 0.5885
2024-12-21 12:00: 0.6050
Trade Summary: Total trades: 1000000, Buy volume: 98180919.36, Sell volume: 41891985.79, Average price: 0.8462, Price range: 0.0020 - 0.9990
Manipulation Indicators Detected: wash_trading

Output: No


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 513149
Question: Will Ashley Moody be appointed as the next Florida senator?
Volume: 818937.515619
Price History:
2024-12-21 20:00: 0.6805
2024-12-22 00:00: 0.6810
2024-12-22 04:00: 0.7110
2024-12-22 08:00: 0.6655
2024-12-22 12:00: 0.7135
2024-12-22 16:00: 0.7440
2024-12-22 20:00: 0.7005
2024-12-23 00:00: 0.7155
2024-12-23 04:00: 0.6820
2024-12-23 08:00: 0.7085
2024-12-23 12:00: 0.7080
2024-12-23 16:00: 0.7555
2024-12-23 20:00: 0.7110
2024-12-24 00:00: 0.7060
2024-12-24 04:00: 0.7425
2024-12-24 08:00: 0.7110
2024-12-24 12:00: 0.7340
2024-12-24 16:00: 0.7765
2024-12-24 20:00: 0.7220
2024-12-25 00:00: 0.5715
2024-12-25 04:00: 0.5330
2024-12-25 08:00: 0.5985
2024-12-25 12:00: 0.6890
2024-12-25 16:00: 0.6780
2024-12-25 20:00: 0.6845
2024-12-26 00:00: 0.6305
2024-12-26 04:00: 0.6370
2024-12-26 08:00: 0.6720
2024-12-26 12:00: 0.6770
2024-12-26 16:00: 0.7180
Trade Summary: Total trades: 1000000, Buy volume: 98180919.36, Sell volume: 41891985.79, Average price: 0.8462, Price range: 0.0020 - 0.9990
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike, wash_trading

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 513149
Question: Will Ashley Moody be appointed as the next Florida senator?
Volume: 818937.515619
Price History:
2024-12-27 00:00: 0.6945
2024-12-27 04:00: 0.7300
2024-12-27 08:00: 0.7400
2024-12-27 12:00: 0.7465
2024-12-27 16:00: 0.7195
2024-12-27 20:00: 0.7450
2024-12-28 00:00: 0.7570
2024-12-28 04:00: 0.7675
2024-12-28 08:00: 0.7820
2024-12-28 12:00: 0.7785
2024-12-28 16:00: 0.7660
2024-12-28 20:00: 0.7680
2024-12-29 00:00: 0.7735
2024-12-29 04:00: 0.7660
2024-12-29 08:00: 0.7720
2024-12-29 12:00: 0.7595
2024-12-29 16:00: 0.7615
2024-12-29 20:00: 0.7720
2024-12-30 00:00: 0.7795
2024-12-30 04:00: 0.7745
2024-12-30 08:00: 0.7715
2024-12-30 12:00: 0.7670
2024-12-30 16:00: 0.7640
2024-12-30 20:00: 0.7665
2024-12-31 00:00: 0.6865
2024-12-31 04:00: 0.6730
2024-12-31 08:00: 0.7510
2024-12-31 12:00: 0.7670
2024-12-31 16:00: 0.6400
2024-12-31 20:00: 0.7250
Trade Summary: Total trades: 1000000, Buy volume: 98180919.36, Sell volume: 41891985.79, Average price: 0.8462, Price range: 0.0020 - 0.9990
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike, wash_trading

Output: Yes