Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 500109
Question: Will a Republican win Pennsylvania US Senate Election?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 2564648.942464
Price History:
2024-06-14 06:00: 0.2150
2024-06-14 14:00: 0.7850
2024-06-14 23:00: 0.2150
2024-06-15 07:00: 0.7850
2024-06-15 16:00: 0.2150
2024-06-16 00:00: 0.7850
2024-06-16 09:00: 0.2150
2024-06-16 17:00: 0.7850
2024-06-17 02:00: 0.2150
2024-06-17 10:00: 0.7850
2024-06-17 19:00: 0.2150
2024-06-18 03:00: 0.7850
2024-06-18 12:00: 0.2150
2024-06-18 20:00: 0.7850
2024-06-19 05:00: 0.2150
2024-06-19 13:00: 0.7850
2024-06-19 22:00: 0.2150
2024-06-20 06:00: 0.7850
2024-06-20 15:00: 0.2150
2024-06-20 23:00: 0.7850
2024-06-21 08:00: 0.2150
2024-06-21 16:00: 0.7850
2024-06-22 01:00: 0.2150
2024-06-22 09:00: 0.7850
2024-06-22 18:00: 0.2150
2024-06-23 02:00: 0.7850
2024-06-23 11:00: 0.2150
2024-06-23 19:00: 0.7850
2024-06-24 04:00: 0.2150
2024-06-24 12:00: 0.7850
2024-06-24 21:00: 0.2150
2024-06-25 05:00: 0.7850
2024-06-25 14:00: 0.2150
2024-06-25 22:00: 0.7850
2024-06-26 07:00: 0.2150
2024-06-26 15:00: 0.7850
2024-06-27 00:00: 0.2150
2024-06-27 08:00: 0.7850
2024-06-27 17:00: 0.2150
2024-06-28 01:00: 0.7850
2024-06-28 10:00: 0.2150
2024-06-28 18:00: 0.7850
2024-06-29 03:00: 0.2150
2024-06-29 11:00: 0.7850
2024-06-29 20:00: 0.2150
2024-06-30 04:00: 0.7850
2024-06-30 13:00: 0.2150
2024-06-30 21:00: 0.7850
2024-07-01 06:00: 0.2150
2024-07-01 14:00: 0.7850
Trade Summary: No trades available

Output: No


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 500109
Question: Will a Republican win Pennsylvania US Senate Election?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 2564648.942464
Price History:
2024-07-02 02:00: 0.7850
2024-07-02 11:00: 0.2150
2024-07-02 19:00: 0.7850
2024-07-03 04:00: 0.2150
2024-07-03 12:00: 0.7850
2024-07-03 21:00: 0.2150
2024-07-04 05:00: 0.7850
2024-07-04 14:00: 0.2150
2024-07-04 22:00: 0.7850
2024-07-05 07:00: 0.2150
2024-07-05 15:00: 0.7850
2024-07-06 00:00: 0.2150
2024-07-06 08:00: 0.7850
2024-07-06 17:00: 0.2150
2024-07-07 01:00: 0.7850
2024-07-07 10:00: 0.2150
2024-07-07 18:00: 0.7850
2024-07-08 03:00: 0.2150
2024-07-08 11:00: 0.7850
2024-07-08 20:00: 0.2150
2024-07-09 04:00: 0.7850
2024-07-09 13:00: 0.2150
2024-07-09 21:00: 0.7850
2024-07-10 06:00: 0.2150
2024-07-10 14:00: 0.7850
2024-07-10 23:00: 0.2150
2024-07-11 07:00: 0.7850
2024-07-11 16:00: 0.2150
2024-07-12 00:00: 0.7850
2024-07-12 09:00: 0.2150
2024-07-12 17:00: 0.7850
2024-07-13 02:00: 0.2150
2024-07-13 10:00: 0.7850
2024-07-13 19:00: 0.2150
2024-07-14 03:00: 0.6800
2024-07-14 12:00: 0.2900
2024-07-14 20:00: 0.6800
2024-07-15 05:00: 0.3850
2024-07-15 13:00: 0.7350
2024-07-15 22:00: 0.2550
2024-07-16 06:00: 0.7350
2024-07-16 15:00: 0.2600
2024-07-16 23:00: 0.7450
2024-07-17 08:00: 0.2600
2024-07-17 16:00: 0.7450
2024-07-18 01:00: 0.2550
2024-07-18 09:00: 0.7500
2024-07-18 18:00: 0.2450
2024-07-19 02:00: 0.7450
2024-07-19 11:00: 0.2550
Trade Summary: No trades available

Output: No


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 500109
Question: Will a Republican win Pennsylvania US Senate Election?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 2564648.942464
Price History:
2024-07-19 23:00: 0.2650
2024-07-20 07:00: 0.7350
2024-07-20 16:00: 0.2650
2024-07-21 00:00: 0.7350
2024-07-21 09:00: 0.2650
2024-07-21 18:00: 0.7650
2024-07-22 03:00: 0.2350
2024-07-22 11:00: 0.7650
2024-07-22 20:00: 0.2350
2024-07-23 04:00: 0.7650
2024-07-23 13:00: 0.2350
2024-07-23 21:00: 0.7650
2024-07-24 06:00: 0.2350
2024-07-24 14:00: 0.7650
2024-07-24 23:00: 0.2350
2024-07-25 07:00: 0.7650
2024-07-25 16:00: 0.2350
2024-07-26 00:00: 0.7650
2024-07-26 09:00: 0.2350
2024-07-26 17:00: 0.7650
2024-07-27 02:00: 0.1400
2024-07-27 10:00: 0.8650
2024-07-27 19:00: 0.1250
2024-07-28 03:00: 0.8700
2024-07-28 12:00: 0.1300
2024-07-28 20:00: 0.8700
2024-07-29 05:00: 0.2100
2024-07-29 13:00: 0.7900
2024-07-29 22:00: 0.1900
2024-07-30 06:00: 0.8100
2024-07-30 15:00: 0.1900
2024-07-30 23:00: 0.8150
2024-07-31 08:00: 0.1900
2024-07-31 16:00: 0.8100
2024-08-01 01:00: 0.1950
2024-08-01 09:00: 0.8150
2024-08-01 18:00: 0.1950
2024-08-02 02:00: 0.8050
2024-08-02 11:00: 0.1950
2024-08-02 19:00: 0.8050
2024-08-03 04:00: 0.1850
2024-08-03 12:00: 0.8100
2024-08-03 21:00: 0.1900
2024-08-04 05:00: 0.8100
2024-08-04 14:00: 0.1900
2024-08-04 22:00: 0.8100
2024-08-05 07:00: 0.1900
2024-08-05 15:00: 0.8150
2024-08-06 00:00: 0.1850
2024-08-06 08:00: 0.8150
Trade Summary: No trades available

Output: No


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 500109
Question: Will a Republican win Pennsylvania US Senate Election?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 2564648.942464
Price History:
2024-08-06 20:00: 0.8150
2024-08-07 05:00: 0.1400
2024-08-07 13:00: 0.8600
2024-08-07 22:00: 0.1500
2024-08-08 06:00: 0.8500
2024-08-08 15:00: 0.1500
2024-08-08 23:00: 0.8500
2024-08-09 08:00: 0.1500
2024-08-09 16:00: 0.8500
2024-08-10 01:00: 0.1500
2024-08-10 09:00: 0.8500
2024-08-10 18:00: 0.1500
2024-08-11 02:00: 0.8500
2024-08-11 11:00: 0.1500
2024-08-11 19:00: 0.8500
2024-08-12 04:00: 0.1500
2024-08-12 12:00: 0.8500
2024-08-12 21:00: 0.1500
2024-08-13 05:00: 0.8500
2024-08-13 14:00: 0.1350
2024-08-13 22:00: 0.8700
2024-08-14 07:00: 0.1250
2024-08-14 15:00: 0.8750
2024-08-15 00:00: 0.1300
2024-08-15 08:00: 0.8700
2024-08-15 17:00: 0.1300
2024-08-16 01:00: 0.8700
2024-08-16 10:00: 0.1300
2024-08-16 18:00: 0.8700
2024-08-17 03:00: 0.1300
2024-08-17 11:00: 0.8700
2024-08-17 20:00: 0.1300
2024-08-18 04:00: 0.8700
2024-08-18 13:00: 0.1300
2024-08-18 21:00: 0.8700
2024-08-19 06:00: 0.1350
2024-08-19 14:00: 0.8650
2024-08-19 23:00: 0.1300
2024-08-20 07:00: 0.8700
2024-08-20 16:00: 0.1300
2024-08-21 00:00: 0.8600
2024-08-21 09:00: 0.1400
2024-08-21 17:00: 0.8600
2024-08-22 02:00: 0.1300
2024-08-22 10:00: 0.8700
2024-08-22 19:00: 0.1300
2024-08-23 03:00: 0.8700
2024-08-23 12:00: 0.1300
2024-08-23 20:00: 0.8700
2024-08-24 05:00: 0.1300
Trade Summary: No trades available

Output: No


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 500109
Question: Will a Republican win Pennsylvania US Senate Election?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 2564648.942464
Price History:
2024-08-24 17:00: 0.1300
2024-08-25 01:00: 0.8650
2024-08-25 10:00: 0.1400
2024-08-25 18:00: 0.8650
2024-08-26 03:00: 0.1450
2024-08-26 11:00: 0.8550
2024-08-26 20:00: 0.1450
2024-08-27 04:00: 0.8550
2024-08-27 13:00: 0.1450
2024-08-27 21:00: 0.8550
2024-08-28 06:00: 0.1450
2024-08-28 14:00: 0.8550
2024-08-28 23:00: 0.1450
2024-08-29 07:00: 0.8550
2024-08-29 16:00: 0.1450
2024-08-30 00:00: 0.8550
2024-08-30 09:00: 0.1450
2024-08-30 17:00: 0.8550
2024-08-31 02:00: 0.1450
2024-08-31 10:00: 0.8550
2024-08-31 19:00: 0.1450
2024-09-01 03:00: 0.8550
2024-09-01 12:00: 0.1450
2024-09-01 20:00: 0.8550
2024-09-02 05:00: 0.1450
2024-09-02 13:00: 0.8550
2024-09-02 22:00: 0.1450
2024-09-03 06:00: 0.8550
2024-09-03 15:00: 0.1450
2024-09-03 23:00: 0.8550
2024-09-04 08:00: 0.1450
2024-09-04 16:00: 0.8450
2024-09-05 01:00: 0.1600
2024-09-05 09:00: 0.8350
2024-09-05 18:00: 0.1650
2024-09-06 02:00: 0.8350
2024-09-06 11:00: 0.1650
2024-09-06 19:00: 0.8350
2024-09-07 04:00: 0.1650
2024-09-07 12:00: 0.8350
2024-09-07 21:00: 0.1650
2024-09-08 05:00: 0.8350
2024-09-08 14:00: 0.1700
2024-09-08 22:00: 0.8300
2024-09-09 07:00: 0.1700
2024-09-09 15:00: 0.8350
2024-09-10 00:00: 0.1650
2024-09-10 08:00: 0.8350
2024-09-10 17:00: 0.1750
2024-09-11 01:00: 0.8450
Trade Summary: No trades available

Output: No


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 500109
Question: Will a Republican win Pennsylvania US Senate Election?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 2564648.942464
Price History:
2024-09-11 13:00: 0.8450
2024-09-11 22:00: 0.1550
2024-09-12 06:00: 0.8450
2024-09-12 15:00: 0.1550
2024-09-12 23:00: 0.8450
2024-09-13 08:00: 0.1550
2024-09-13 16:00: 0.8450
2024-09-14 01:00: 0.1550
2024-09-14 09:00: 0.8450
2024-09-14 18:00: 0.1550
2024-09-15 02:00: 0.8450
2024-09-15 11:00: 0.1550
2024-09-15 19:00: 0.8450
2024-09-16 04:00: 0.1550
2024-09-16 12:00: 0.8450
2024-09-16 21:00: 0.1550
2024-09-17 05:00: 0.8450
2024-09-17 14:00: 0.1550
2024-09-17 22:00: 0.8450
2024-09-18 07:00: 0.1550
2024-09-18 15:00: 0.8450
2024-09-19 00:00: 0.1550
2024-09-19 08:00: 0.8450
2024-09-19 17:00: 0.1550
2024-09-20 01:00: 0.8450
2024-09-20 10:00: 0.1550
2024-09-20 18:00: 0.8450
2024-09-21 03:00: 0.1600
2024-09-21 11:00: 0.8400
2024-09-21 20:00: 0.1600
2024-09-22 04:00: 0.8450
2024-09-22 13:00: 0.1550
2024-09-22 21:00: 0.8450
2024-09-23 06:00: 0.1600
2024-09-23 14:00: 0.8400
2024-09-23 23:00: 0.1650
2024-09-24 07:00: 0.8550
2024-09-24 16:00: 0.1500
2024-09-25 00:00: 0.8500
2024-09-25 09:00: 0.1500
2024-09-25 17:00: 0.8400
2024-09-26 02:00: 0.1600
2024-09-26 10:00: 0.8400
2024-09-26 19:00: 0.1600
2024-09-27 03:00: 0.8400
2024-09-27 12:00: 0.1600
2024-09-27 20:00: 0.8400
2024-09-28 05:00: 0.1600
2024-09-28 13:00: 0.8450
2024-09-28 22:00: 0.1550
Trade Summary: No trades available

Output: No


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 500109
Question: Will a Republican win Pennsylvania US Senate Election?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 2564648.942464
Price History:
2024-09-29 10:00: 0.1550
2024-09-29 18:00: 0.8450
2024-09-30 03:00: 0.1600
2024-09-30 11:00: 0.8400
2024-09-30 20:00: 0.1550
2024-10-01 04:00: 0.8450
2024-10-01 13:00: 0.1550
2024-10-01 21:00: 0.8400
2024-10-02 06:00: 0.1650
2024-10-02 13:00: 0.8350
2024-10-02 22:00: 0.1600
2024-10-03 06:00: 0.8400
2024-10-03 15:00: 0.1850
2024-10-03 23:00: 0.8150
2024-10-04 08:00: 0.1850
2024-10-04 16:00: 0.8100
2024-10-05 01:00: 0.1900
2024-10-05 09:00: 0.8100
2024-10-05 18:00: 0.1900
2024-10-06 02:00: 0.8100
2024-10-06 11:00: 0.1900
2024-10-06 19:00: 0.8050
2024-10-07 04:00: 0.1950
2024-10-07 12:00: 0.8050
2024-10-07 21:00: 0.2050
2024-10-08 05:00: 0.7950
2024-10-08 14:00: 0.2150
2024-10-08 22:00: 0.7850
2024-10-09 07:00: 0.2150
2024-10-09 15:00: 0.7850
2024-10-10 00:00: 0.2200
2024-10-10 08:00: 0.7800
2024-10-10 17:00: 0.2200
2024-10-11 01:00: 0.7750
2024-10-11 10:00: 0.2250
2024-10-11 18:00: 0.7750
2024-10-12 03:00: 0.2250
2024-10-12 11:00: 0.7600
2024-10-12 20:00: 0.2350
2024-10-13 04:00: 0.7650
2024-10-13 13:00: 0.2300
2024-10-13 21:00: 0.7700
2024-10-14 06:00: 0.2300
2024-10-14 14:00: 0.7700
2024-10-14 23:00: 0.2300
2024-10-15 07:00: 0.7700
2024-10-15 16:00: 0.2300
2024-10-16 00:00: 0.7600
2024-10-16 09:00: 0.2450
2024-10-16 17:00: 0.7550
Trade Summary: No trades available

Output: No


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 500109
Question: Will a Republican win Pennsylvania US Senate Election?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 2564648.942464
Price History:
2024-10-17 05:00: 0.7500
2024-10-17 14:00: 0.3500
2024-10-17 22:00: 0.6750
2024-10-18 07:00: 0.3150
2024-10-18 15:00: 0.7050
2024-10-19 00:00: 0.2950
2024-10-19 08:00: 0.6950
2024-10-19 17:00: 0.3050
2024-10-20 01:00: 0.6950
2024-10-20 10:00: 0.2900
2024-10-20 18:00: 0.7050
2024-10-21 03:00: 0.2950
2024-10-21 11:00: 0.7200
2024-10-21 20:00: 0.2900
2024-10-22 04:00: 0.7000
2024-10-22 13:00: 0.3150
2024-10-22 21:00: 0.6850
2024-10-23 06:00: 0.3150
2024-10-23 14:00: 0.6900
2024-10-23 23:00: 0.3100
2024-10-24 07:00: 0.6900
2024-10-24 16:00: 0.3100
2024-10-25 00:00: 0.6900
2024-10-25 09:00: 0.3100
2024-10-25 17:00: 0.6900
2024-10-26 02:00: 0.3050
2024-10-26 10:00: 0.6950
2024-10-26 19:00: 0.3050
2024-10-27 03:00: 0.6950
2024-10-27 12:00: 0.3050
2024-10-27 20:00: 0.6900
2024-10-28 05:00: 0.3100
2024-10-28 13:00: 0.6950
2024-10-28 22:00: 0.3050
2024-10-29 06:00: 0.6850
2024-10-29 15:00: 0.3150
2024-10-29 23:00: 0.6950
2024-10-30 08:00: 0.3000
2024-10-30 16:00: 0.7000
2024-10-31 01:00: 0.2950
2024-10-31 09:00: 0.7050
2024-10-31 18:00: 0.2850
2024-11-01 02:00: 0.7100
2024-11-01 11:00: 0.2650
2024-11-01 19:00: 0.7400
2024-11-02 04:00: 0.2550
2024-11-02 12:00: 0.7750
2024-11-02 21:00: 0.2300
2024-11-03 04:00: 0.7750
2024-11-03 13:00: 0.2250
Trade Summary: No trades available

Output: No


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 500109
Question: Will a Republican win Pennsylvania US Senate Election?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 2564648.942464
Price History:
2024-11-04 01:00: 0.2200
2024-11-04 09:00: 0.7800
2024-11-04 18:00: 0.2250
2024-11-05 02:00: 0.7700
2024-11-05 11:00: 0.2300
2024-11-05 20:00: 0.8850
2024-11-06 05:00: 0.7400
2024-11-06 13:00: 0.1995
2024-11-06 22:00: 0.9380
2024-11-07 06:00: 0.0450
2024-11-07 15:00: 0.9715
2024-11-07 23:00: 0.0125
2024-11-08 08:00: 0.9840
2024-11-08 16:00: 0.0100
2024-11-09 01:00: 0.9800
2024-11-09 09:00: 0.0205
2024-11-09 18:00: 0.9770
2024-11-10 02:00: 0.0100
2024-11-10 11:00: 0.9920
2024-11-10 19:00: 0.0075
2024-11-11 04:00: 0.9925
2024-11-11 12:00: 0.0080
2024-11-11 21:00: 0.9900
2024-11-12 05:00: 0.0105
2024-11-12 14:00: 0.9785
2024-11-12 22:00: 0.0375
2024-11-13 07:00: 0.9815
2024-11-13 15:00: 0.0235
2024-11-14 00:00: 0.9780
2024-11-14 08:00: 0.0235
2024-11-14 17:00: 0.9970
2024-11-15 01:00: 0.0035
2024-11-15 10:00: 0.9950
2024-11-15 18:00: 0.0060
2024-11-16 03:00: 0.9935
2024-11-16 11:00: 0.0070
2024-11-16 20:00: 0.9920
2024-11-17 04:00: 0.0095
2024-11-17 13:00: 0.9895
2024-11-17 21:00: 0.0110
2024-11-18 06:00: 0.9915
2024-11-18 14:00: 0.0120
2024-11-18 23:00: 0.9900
2024-11-19 07:00: 0.0085
2024-11-19 16:00: 0.9920
2024-11-20 00:00: 0.0075
2024-11-20 09:00: 0.9950
2024-11-20 17:00: 0.0050
2024-11-21 02:00: 0.9960
2024-11-21 10:00: 0.0045
Trade Summary: No trades available

Output: No


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 500109
Question: Will a Republican win Pennsylvania US Senate Election?
Volume: 2564648.942464
Price History:
2024-04-03 19:00: 0.2250
2024-04-04 09:00: 0.2150
2024-04-04 23:00: 0.2150
2024-04-05 13:00: 0.2150
2024-04-06 03:00: 0.2150
2024-04-06 17:00: 0.2150
2024-04-07 07:00: 0.2150
2024-04-07 21:00: 0.2150
2024-04-08 11:00: 0.2150
2024-04-09 01:00: 0.2150
2024-04-09 15:00: 0.2150
2024-04-10 05:00: 0.2150
2024-04-10 19:00: 0.2150
2024-04-11 09:00: 0.2150
2024-04-11 23:00: 0.2150
2024-04-12 13:00: 0.2150
2024-04-13 03:00: 0.2150
2024-04-13 17:00: 0.2150
2024-04-14 07:00: 0.2150
2024-04-14 21:00: 0.2150
2024-04-15 11:00: 0.2150
2024-04-16 01:00: 0.2150
2024-04-16 15:00: 0.2150
2024-04-17 05:00: 0.2150
2024-04-17 19:00: 0.2150
2024-04-18 09:00: 0.2150
2024-04-18 23:00: 0.2150
2024-04-19 13:00: 0.2150
2024-04-20 03:00: 0.2150
2024-04-20 17:00: 0.2150
Trade Summary: No trades available
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 500109
Question: Will a Republican win Pennsylvania US Senate Election?
Volume: 2564648.942464
Price History:
2024-04-21 15:00: 0.7850
2024-04-22 05:00: 0.7850
2024-04-22 19:00: 0.7850
2024-04-23 09:00: 0.7850
2024-04-23 23:00: 0.7850
2024-04-24 13:00: 0.7850
2024-04-25 03:00: 0.7850
2024-04-25 17:00: 0.7850
2024-04-26 07:00: 0.7850
2024-04-26 21:00: 0.7850
2024-04-27 11:00: 0.7850
2024-04-28 01:00: 0.7850
2024-04-28 15:00: 0.7850
2024-04-29 05:00: 0.7850
2024-04-29 19:00: 0.7850
2024-04-30 09:00: 0.7850
2024-04-30 23:00: 0.7850
2024-05-01 13:00: 0.7850
2024-05-02 04:00: 0.7850
2024-05-02 18:00: 0.7850
2024-05-03 08:00: 0.7850
2024-05-03 22:00: 0.7850
2024-05-04 12:00: 0.7850
2024-05-05 02:00: 0.7850
2024-05-05 16:00: 0.7850
2024-05-06 06:00: 0.7850
2024-05-06 20:00: 0.7850
2024-05-07 10:00: 0.7850
2024-05-08 00:00: 0.7850
2024-05-08 14:00: 0.7850
Trade Summary: No trades available
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 500109
Question: Will a Republican win Pennsylvania US Senate Election?
Volume: 2564648.942464
Price History:
2024-05-09 13:00: 0.2150
2024-05-10 03:00: 0.2150
2024-05-10 17:00: 0.2150
2024-05-11 07:00: 0.2150
2024-05-11 21:00: 0.2150
2024-05-12 11:00: 0.2150
2024-05-13 01:00: 0.2150
2024-05-13 15:00: 0.2150
2024-05-14 05:00: 0.2150
2024-05-14 19:00: 0.2150
2024-05-15 09:00: 0.2150
2024-05-15 23:00: 0.2150
2024-05-16 13:00: 0.2150
2024-05-17 03:00: 0.2150
2024-05-17 17:00: 0.2150
2024-05-18 07:00: 0.2150
2024-05-18 21:00: 0.2150
2024-05-19 11:00: 0.2150
2024-05-20 01:00: 0.2150
2024-05-20 15:00: 0.2150
2024-05-21 05:00: 0.2150
2024-05-21 19:00: 0.2150
2024-05-22 09:00: 0.2150
2024-05-22 23:00: 0.2150
2024-05-23 13:00: 0.2150
2024-05-24 03:00: 0.2150
2024-05-24 17:00: 0.2150
2024-05-25 07:00: 0.2150
2024-05-25 21:00: 0.2150
2024-05-26 11:00: 0.2150
Trade Summary: No trades available
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 500109
Question: Will a Republican win Pennsylvania US Senate Election?
Volume: 2564648.942464
Price History:
2024-05-27 09:00: 0.7850
2024-05-27 23:00: 0.7850
2024-05-28 13:00: 0.7850
2024-05-29 03:00: 0.7850
2024-05-29 17:00: 0.7850
2024-05-30 07:00: 0.7850
2024-05-30 21:00: 0.7850
2024-05-31 11:00: 0.7850
2024-06-01 01:00: 0.7850
2024-06-01 15:00: 0.7850
2024-06-02 05:00: 0.7850
2024-06-02 19:00: 0.7850
2024-06-03 09:00: 0.7850
2024-06-03 23:00: 0.7850
2024-06-04 13:00: 0.7850
2024-06-05 03:00: 0.7850
2024-06-05 17:00: 0.7850
2024-06-06 07:00: 0.7850
2024-06-06 21:00: 0.7850
2024-06-07 11:00: 0.7850
2024-06-08 01:00: 0.7850
2024-06-08 15:00: 0.7850
2024-06-09 05:00: 0.7850
2024-06-09 19:00: 0.7850
2024-06-10 09:00: 0.7850
2024-06-10 23:00: 0.7850
2024-06-11 13:00: 0.7850
2024-06-12 03:00: 0.7850
2024-06-12 17:00: 0.7850
2024-06-13 07:00: 0.7850
Trade Summary: No trades available
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 500109
Question: Will a Republican win Pennsylvania US Senate Election?
Volume: 2564648.942464
Price History:
2024-06-14 06:00: 0.2150
2024-06-14 20:00: 0.2150
2024-06-15 10:00: 0.2150
2024-06-16 00:00: 0.2150
2024-06-16 14:00: 0.2150
2024-06-17 04:00: 0.2150
2024-06-17 18:00: 0.2150
2024-06-18 08:00: 0.2150
2024-06-18 22:00: 0.2150
2024-06-19 12:00: 0.2150
2024-06-20 02:00: 0.2150
2024-06-20 16:00: 0.2150
2024-06-21 06:00: 0.2150
2024-06-21 20:00: 0.2150
2024-06-22 10:00: 0.2150
2024-06-23 00:00: 0.2150
2024-06-23 14:00: 0.2150
2024-06-24 04:00: 0.2150
2024-06-24 18:00: 0.2150
2024-06-25 08:00: 0.2150
2024-06-25 22:00: 0.2150
2024-06-26 12:00: 0.2150
2024-06-27 02:00: 0.2150
2024-06-27 16:00: 0.2150
2024-06-28 06:00: 0.2150
2024-06-28 20:00: 0.2150
2024-06-29 10:00: 0.2150
2024-06-30 00:00: 0.2150
2024-06-30 14:00: 0.2150
2024-07-01 04:00: 0.2150
Trade Summary: No trades available
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 500109
Question: Will a Republican win Pennsylvania US Senate Election?
Volume: 2564648.942464
Price History:
2024-07-02 02:00: 0.7850
2024-07-02 16:00: 0.7850
2024-07-03 06:00: 0.7850
2024-07-03 20:00: 0.7850
2024-07-04 10:00: 0.7850
2024-07-05 00:00: 0.7850
2024-07-05 14:00: 0.7850
2024-07-06 04:00: 0.7850
2024-07-06 18:00: 0.7850
2024-07-07 08:00: 0.7850
2024-07-07 22:00: 0.7850
2024-07-08 12:00: 0.7850
2024-07-09 02:00: 0.7850
2024-07-09 16:00: 0.7850
2024-07-10 06:00: 0.7850
2024-07-10 20:00: 0.7850
2024-07-11 10:00: 0.7850
2024-07-12 00:00: 0.7850
2024-07-12 14:00: 0.7850
2024-07-13 04:00: 0.7850
2024-07-13 18:00: 0.7850
2024-07-14 08:00: 0.7100
2024-07-14 22:00: 0.6800
2024-07-15 12:00: 0.6150
2024-07-16 02:00: 0.7450
2024-07-16 16:00: 0.7400
2024-07-17 06:00: 0.7400
2024-07-17 20:00: 0.7450
2024-07-18 10:00: 0.7500
2024-07-19 00:00: 0.7650
Trade Summary: No trades available
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 500109
Question: Will a Republican win Pennsylvania US Senate Election?
Volume: 2564648.942464
Price History:
2024-07-19 23:00: 0.2650
2024-07-20 13:00: 0.2650
2024-07-21 03:00: 0.2650
2024-07-21 18:00: 0.2350
2024-07-22 08:00: 0.2350
2024-07-22 22:00: 0.2350
2024-07-23 12:00: 0.2350
2024-07-24 02:00: 0.2350
2024-07-24 16:00: 0.2350
2024-07-25 06:00: 0.2350
2024-07-25 20:00: 0.2350
2024-07-26 10:00: 0.2350
2024-07-27 00:00: 0.1400
2024-07-27 14:00: 0.1250
2024-07-28 04:00: 0.1300
2024-07-28 18:00: 0.1300
2024-07-29 08:00: 0.2100
2024-07-29 22:00: 0.1900
2024-07-30 12:00: 0.1900
2024-07-31 02:00: 0.1900
2024-07-31 16:00: 0.1900
2024-08-01 06:00: 0.1850
2024-08-01 20:00: 0.1950
2024-08-02 10:00: 0.1950
2024-08-03 00:00: 0.1850
2024-08-03 14:00: 0.1900
2024-08-04 04:00: 0.1900
2024-08-04 18:00: 0.1900
2024-08-05 08:00: 0.1900
2024-08-05 22:00: 0.1850
Trade Summary: No trades available
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 500109
Question: Will a Republican win Pennsylvania US Senate Election?
Volume: 2564648.942464
Price History:
2024-08-06 20:00: 0.8150
2024-08-07 10:00: 0.8600
2024-08-08 00:00: 0.8500
2024-08-08 14:00: 0.8500
2024-08-09 04:00: 0.8500
2024-08-09 18:00: 0.8500
2024-08-10 08:00: 0.8500
2024-08-10 22:00: 0.8500
2024-08-11 12:00: 0.8500
2024-08-12 02:00: 0.8500
2024-08-12 16:00: 0.8500
2024-08-13 06:00: 0.8500
2024-08-13 20:00: 0.8700
2024-08-14 10:00: 0.8750
2024-08-15 00:00: 0.8700
2024-08-15 14:00: 0.8700
2024-08-16 04:00: 0.8700
2024-08-16 18:00: 0.8700
2024-08-17 08:00: 0.8700
2024-08-17 22:00: 0.8700
2024-08-18 12:00: 0.8700
2024-08-19 02:00: 0.8700
2024-08-19 16:00: 0.8650
2024-08-20 06:00: 0.8700
2024-08-20 20:00: 0.8600
2024-08-21 10:00: 0.8600
2024-08-22 00:00: 0.8700
2024-08-22 14:00: 0.8700
2024-08-23 04:00: 0.8700
2024-08-23 18:00: 0.8700
Trade Summary: No trades available
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 500109
Question: Will a Republican win Pennsylvania US Senate Election?
Volume: 2564648.942464
Price History:
2024-08-24 17:00: 0.1300
2024-08-25 07:00: 0.1400
2024-08-25 21:00: 0.1400
2024-08-26 11:00: 0.1450
2024-08-27 01:00: 0.1450
2024-08-27 15:00: 0.1450
2024-08-28 05:00: 0.1450
2024-08-28 19:00: 0.1450
2024-08-29 09:00: 0.1450
2024-08-29 23:00: 0.1450
2024-08-30 13:00: 0.1450
2024-08-31 03:00: 0.1450
2024-08-31 17:00: 0.1450
2024-09-01 07:00: 0.1450
2024-09-01 21:00: 0.1450
2024-09-02 11:00: 0.1450
2024-09-03 01:00: 0.1450
2024-09-03 15:00: 0.1450
2024-09-04 05:00: 0.1450
2024-09-04 19:00: 0.1550
2024-09-05 09:00: 0.1650
2024-09-05 23:00: 0.1650
2024-09-06 13:00: 0.1650
2024-09-07 03:00: 0.1650
2024-09-07 17:00: 0.1650
2024-09-08 07:00: 0.1650
2024-09-08 21:00: 0.1700
2024-09-09 11:00: 0.1650
2024-09-10 01:00: 0.1650
2024-09-10 15:00: 0.1650
Trade Summary: No trades available
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 500109
Question: Will a Republican win Pennsylvania US Senate Election?
Volume: 2564648.942464
Price History:
2024-09-11 13:00: 0.8450
2024-09-12 03:00: 0.8450
2024-09-12 17:00: 0.8450
2024-09-13 07:00: 0.8450
2024-09-13 21:00: 0.8450
2024-09-14 11:00: 0.8450
2024-09-15 01:00: 0.8450
2024-09-15 15:00: 0.8450
2024-09-16 05:00: 0.8450
2024-09-16 19:00: 0.8450
2024-09-17 09:00: 0.8450
2024-09-17 23:00: 0.8450
2024-09-18 13:00: 0.8450
2024-09-19 03:00: 0.8450
2024-09-19 17:00: 0.8450
2024-09-20 07:00: 0.8450
2024-09-20 21:00: 0.8400
2024-09-21 11:00: 0.8400
2024-09-22 01:00: 0.8450
2024-09-22 15:00: 0.8450
2024-09-23 05:00: 0.8400
2024-09-23 19:00: 0.8400
2024-09-24 09:00: 0.8550
2024-09-24 23:00: 0.8500
2024-09-25 13:00: 0.8400
2024-09-26 03:00: 0.8400
2024-09-26 17:00: 0.8400
2024-09-27 07:00: 0.8400
2024-09-27 21:00: 0.8400
2024-09-28 11:00: 0.8400
Trade Summary: No trades available
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 500109
Question: Will a Republican win Pennsylvania US Senate Election?
Volume: 2564648.942464
Price History:
2024-09-29 10:00: 0.1550
2024-09-30 00:00: 0.1600
2024-09-30 14:00: 0.1550
2024-10-01 04:00: 0.1550
2024-10-01 18:00: 0.1550
2024-10-02 08:00: 0.1650
2024-10-02 21:00: 0.1600
2024-10-03 11:00: 0.1850
2024-10-04 01:00: 0.1850
2024-10-04 15:00: 0.1900
2024-10-05 05:00: 0.1900
2024-10-05 19:00: 0.1900
2024-10-06 09:00: 0.1950
2024-10-06 23:00: 0.1950
2024-10-07 13:00: 0.1950
2024-10-08 03:00: 0.2050
2024-10-08 17:00: 0.2150
2024-10-09 07:00: 0.2150
2024-10-09 21:00: 0.2200
2024-10-10 11:00: 0.2200
2024-10-11 01:00: 0.2250
2024-10-11 15:00: 0.2250
2024-10-12 05:00: 0.2250
2024-10-12 19:00: 0.2350
2024-10-13 09:00: 0.2350
2024-10-13 23:00: 0.2300
2024-10-14 13:00: 0.2300
2024-10-15 03:00: 0.2300
2024-10-15 17:00: 0.2300
2024-10-16 07:00: 0.2450
Trade Summary: No trades available
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 500109
Question: Will a Republican win Pennsylvania US Senate Election?
Volume: 2564648.942464
Price History:
2024-10-17 05:00: 0.7500
2024-10-17 19:00: 0.6700
2024-10-18 09:00: 0.6900
2024-10-18 23:00: 0.7050
2024-10-19 13:00: 0.6950
2024-10-20 03:00: 0.7050
2024-10-20 17:00: 0.7050
2024-10-21 07:00: 0.7100
2024-10-21 21:00: 0.7100
2024-10-22 11:00: 0.6850
2024-10-23 01:00: 0.6900
2024-10-23 15:00: 0.6900
2024-10-24 05:00: 0.6900
2024-10-24 19:00: 0.6900
2024-10-25 09:00: 0.6900
2024-10-25 23:00: 0.6950
2024-10-26 13:00: 0.6950
2024-10-27 03:00: 0.6950
2024-10-27 17:00: 0.6950
2024-10-28 07:00: 0.6900
2024-10-28 21:00: 0.6950
2024-10-29 11:00: 0.6850
2024-10-30 01:00: 0.6950
2024-10-30 15:00: 0.7000
2024-10-31 05:00: 0.7050
2024-10-31 19:00: 0.7150
2024-11-01 09:00: 0.7400
2024-11-01 23:00: 0.7450
2024-11-02 13:00: 0.7750
2024-11-03 02:00: 0.7700
Trade Summary: No trades available
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 500109
Question: Will a Republican win Pennsylvania US Senate Election?
Volume: 2564648.942464
Price History:
2024-11-04 01:00: 0.2200
2024-11-04 15:00: 0.2250
2024-11-05 05:00: 0.2300
2024-11-05 20:00: 0.1150
2024-11-06 10:00: 0.8400
2024-11-07 00:00: 0.9370
2024-11-07 14:00: 0.9560
2024-11-08 04:00: 0.9905
2024-11-08 18:00: 0.9805
2024-11-09 08:00: 0.9770
2024-11-09 22:00: 0.9810
2024-11-10 12:00: 0.9935
2024-11-11 02:00: 0.9920
2024-11-11 16:00: 0.9910
2024-11-12 06:00: 0.9880
2024-11-12 20:00: 0.9720
2024-11-13 10:00: 0.9815
2024-11-14 00:00: 0.9780
2024-11-14 14:00: 0.9700
2024-11-15 04:00: 0.9965
2024-11-15 18:00: 0.9940
2024-11-16 08:00: 0.9930
2024-11-16 22:00: 0.9920
2024-11-17 12:00: 0.9895
2024-11-18 02:00: 0.9920
2024-11-18 16:00: 0.9875
2024-11-19 06:00: 0.9915
2024-11-19 20:00: 0.9925
2024-11-20 10:00: 0.9950
2024-11-21 00:00: 0.9965
Trade Summary: No trades available
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 500110
Question: Will a candidate from another party win Pennsylvania US Senate Election?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 613378.130366
Price History:
2024-04-03 19:00: 0.0145
2024-04-04 03:00: 0.9810
2024-04-04 12:00: 0.0065
2024-04-04 20:00: 0.9935
2024-04-05 05:00: 0.0065
2024-04-05 13:00: 0.9935
2024-04-05 22:00: 0.0065
2024-04-06 06:00: 0.9935
2024-04-06 15:00: 0.0065
2024-04-06 23:00: 0.9875
2024-04-07 08:00: 0.0120
2024-04-07 16:00: 0.9880
2024-04-08 01:00: 0.0130
2024-04-08 09:00: 0.9870
2024-04-08 18:00: 0.0130
2024-04-09 02:00: 0.9870
2024-04-09 11:00: 0.0130
2024-04-09 19:00: 0.9870
2024-04-10 04:00: 0.0130
2024-04-10 12:00: 0.9870
2024-04-10 21:00: 0.0130
2024-04-11 05:00: 0.9870
2024-04-11 14:00: 0.0130
2024-04-11 22:00: 0.9870
2024-04-12 07:00: 0.0130
2024-04-12 15:00: 0.9870
2024-04-13 00:00: 0.0130
2024-04-13 08:00: 0.9870
2024-04-13 17:00: 0.0130
2024-04-14 01:00: 0.9870
2024-04-14 10:00: 0.0130
2024-04-14 18:00: 0.9870
2024-04-15 03:00: 0.0130
2024-04-15 11:00: 0.9870
2024-04-15 20:00: 0.0130
2024-04-16 04:00: 0.9870
2024-04-16 13:00: 0.0130
2024-04-16 21:00: 0.9870
2024-04-17 06:00: 0.0130
2024-04-17 14:00: 0.9870
2024-04-17 23:00: 0.0130
2024-04-18 07:00: 0.9870
2024-04-18 16:00: 0.0130
2024-04-19 00:00: 0.9870
2024-04-19 09:00: 0.0130
2024-04-19 17:00: 0.9870
2024-04-20 02:00: 0.0130
2024-04-20 10:00: 0.9870
2024-04-20 19:00: 0.0130
2024-04-21 03:00: 0.9870
Trade Summary: No trades available

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 500110
Question: Will a candidate from another party win Pennsylvania US Senate Election?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 613378.130366
Price History:
2024-04-21 15:00: 0.9870
2024-04-22 00:00: 0.0130
2024-04-22 08:00: 0.9870
2024-04-22 17:00: 0.0130
2024-04-23 01:00: 0.9870
2024-04-23 10:00: 0.0130
2024-04-23 18:00: 0.9870
2024-04-24 03:00: 0.0130
2024-04-24 11:00: 0.9870
2024-04-24 20:00: 0.0130
2024-04-25 04:00: 0.9870
2024-04-25 13:00: 0.0130
2024-04-25 21:00: 0.9870
2024-04-26 06:00: 0.0130
2024-04-26 14:00: 0.9870
2024-04-26 23:00: 0.0130
2024-04-27 07:00: 0.9870
2024-04-27 16:00: 0.0130
2024-04-28 00:00: 0.9870
2024-04-28 09:00: 0.0130
2024-04-28 17:00: 0.9870
2024-04-29 02:00: 0.0130
2024-04-29 10:00: 0.9870
2024-04-29 19:00: 0.0130
2024-04-30 03:00: 0.9870
2024-04-30 12:00: 0.0130
2024-04-30 20:00: 0.9870
2024-05-01 05:00: 0.0130
2024-05-01 13:00: 0.9870
2024-05-01 23:00: 0.0130
2024-05-02 07:00: 0.9870
2024-05-02 16:00: 0.0130
2024-05-03 00:00: 0.9870
2024-05-03 09:00: 0.0130
2024-05-03 17:00: 0.9870
2024-05-04 02:00: 0.0130
2024-05-04 10:00: 0.9870
2024-05-04 19:00: 0.0130
2024-05-05 03:00: 0.9870
2024-05-05 12:00: 0.0130
2024-05-05 20:00: 0.9870
2024-05-06 05:00: 0.0130
2024-05-06 13:00: 0.9870
2024-05-06 22:00: 0.0130
2024-05-07 06:00: 0.9870
2024-05-07 15:00: 0.0130
2024-05-07 23:00: 0.9870
2024-05-08 08:00: 0.0130
2024-05-08 16:00: 0.9870
2024-05-09 01:00: 0.0130
Trade Summary: No trades available

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 500110
Question: Will a candidate from another party win Pennsylvania US Senate Election?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 613378.130366
Price History:
2024-05-09 13:00: 0.0130
2024-05-09 21:00: 0.9870
2024-05-10 06:00: 0.0130
2024-05-10 14:00: 0.9870
2024-05-10 23:00: 0.0130
2024-05-11 07:00: 0.9870
2024-05-11 16:00: 0.0130
2024-05-12 00:00: 0.9870
2024-05-12 09:00: 0.0130
2024-05-12 17:00: 0.9870
2024-05-13 02:00: 0.0130
2024-05-13 10:00: 0.9870
2024-05-13 19:00: 0.0130
2024-05-14 03:00: 0.9870
2024-05-14 12:00: 0.0130
2024-05-14 20:00: 0.9870
2024-05-15 05:00: 0.0130
2024-05-15 13:00: 0.9875
2024-05-15 22:00: 0.0125
2024-05-16 06:00: 0.9875
2024-05-16 15:00: 0.0125
2024-05-16 23:00: 0.9875
2024-05-17 08:00: 0.0125
2024-05-17 16:00: 0.9875
2024-05-18 01:00: 0.0125
2024-05-18 09:00: 0.9875
2024-05-18 18:00: 0.0125
2024-05-19 02:00: 0.9875
2024-05-19 11:00: 0.0125
2024-05-19 19:00: 0.9875
2024-05-20 04:00: 0.0125
2024-05-20 12:00: 0.9875
2024-05-20 21:00: 0.0125
2024-05-21 05:00: 0.9875
2024-05-21 14:00: 0.0125
2024-05-21 22:00: 0.9875
2024-05-22 07:00: 0.0125
2024-05-22 15:00: 0.9875
2024-05-23 00:00: 0.0125
2024-05-23 08:00: 0.9875
2024-05-23 17:00: 0.0125
2024-05-24 01:00: 0.9875
2024-05-24 10:00: 0.0125
2024-05-24 18:00: 0.9875
2024-05-25 03:00: 0.0125
2024-05-25 11:00: 0.9875
2024-05-25 20:00: 0.0125
2024-05-26 04:00: 0.9875
2024-05-26 13:00: 0.0125
2024-05-26 21:00: 0.9875
Trade Summary: No trades available

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 500110
Question: Will a candidate from another party win Pennsylvania US Senate Election?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 613378.130366
Price History:
2024-05-27 09:00: 0.9875
2024-05-27 18:00: 0.0125
2024-05-28 02:00: 0.9875
2024-05-28 11:00: 0.0125
2024-05-28 19:00: 0.9875
2024-05-29 04:00: 0.0125
2024-05-29 12:00: 0.9875
2024-05-29 21:00: 0.0125
2024-05-30 05:00: 0.9875
2024-05-30 14:00: 0.0125
2024-05-30 22:00: 0.9875
2024-05-31 07:00: 0.0125
2024-05-31 15:00: 0.9875
2024-06-01 00:00: 0.0125
2024-06-01 08:00: 0.9875
2024-06-01 17:00: 0.0125
2024-06-02 01:00: 0.9875
2024-06-02 10:00: 0.0125
2024-06-02 18:00: 0.9875
2024-06-03 03:00: 0.0125
2024-06-03 11:00: 0.9875
2024-06-03 20:00: 0.0125
2024-06-04 04:00: 0.9875
2024-06-04 13:00: 0.0125
2024-06-04 21:00: 0.9875
2024-06-05 06:00: 0.0125
2024-06-05 14:00: 0.9875
2024-06-05 23:00: 0.0125
2024-06-06 07:00: 0.9875
2024-06-06 16:00: 0.0125
2024-06-07 00:00: 0.9875
2024-06-07 09:00: 0.0125
2024-06-07 17:00: 0.9875
2024-06-08 02:00: 0.0125
2024-06-08 10:00: 0.9875
2024-06-08 19:00: 0.0125
2024-06-09 03:00: 0.9875
2024-06-09 12:00: 0.0125
2024-06-09 20:00: 0.9875
2024-06-10 05:00: 0.0125
2024-06-10 13:00: 0.9875
2024-06-10 22:00: 0.0125
2024-06-11 06:00: 0.9875
2024-06-11 15:00: 0.0125
2024-06-11 23:00: 0.9875
2024-06-12 08:00: 0.0125
2024-06-12 16:00: 0.9875
2024-06-13 01:00: 0.0125
2024-06-13 09:00: 0.9875
2024-06-13 18:00: 0.0125
Trade Summary: No trades available

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 500110
Question: Will a candidate from another party win Pennsylvania US Senate Election?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 613378.130366
Price History:
2024-06-14 06:00: 0.0125
2024-06-14 14:00: 0.9875
2024-06-14 23:00: 0.0125
2024-06-15 07:00: 0.9875
2024-06-15 16:00: 0.0125
2024-06-16 00:00: 0.9875
2024-06-16 09:00: 0.0125
2024-06-16 17:00: 0.9875
2024-06-17 02:00: 0.0125
2024-06-17 10:00: 0.9875
2024-06-17 19:00: 0.0125
2024-06-18 03:00: 0.9875
2024-06-18 12:00: 0.0125
2024-06-18 20:00: 0.9875
2024-06-19 05:00: 0.0125
2024-06-19 13:00: 0.9875
2024-06-19 22:00: 0.0125
2024-06-20 06:00: 0.9875
2024-06-20 15:00: 0.0125
2024-06-20 23:00: 0.9875
2024-06-21 08:00: 0.0125
2024-06-21 16:00: 0.9875
2024-06-22 01:00: 0.0125
2024-06-22 09:00: 0.9875
2024-06-22 18:00: 0.0125
2024-06-23 02:00: 0.9875
2024-06-23 11:00: 0.0125
2024-06-23 19:00: 0.9875
2024-06-24 04:00: 0.0125
2024-06-24 12:00: 0.9875
2024-06-24 21:00: 0.0125
2024-06-25 05:00: 0.9875
2024-06-25 14:00: 0.0125
2024-06-25 22:00: 0.9875
2024-06-26 07:00: 0.0125
2024-06-26 15:00: 0.9875
2024-06-27 00:00: 0.0125
2024-06-27 08:00: 0.9875
2024-06-27 17:00: 0.0125
2024-06-28 01:00: 0.9870
2024-06-28 10:00: 0.0130
2024-06-28 18:00: 0.9870
2024-06-29 03:00: 0.0130
2024-06-29 11:00: 0.9875
2024-06-29 20:00: 0.0125
2024-06-30 04:00: 0.9875
2024-06-30 13:00: 0.0125
2024-06-30 21:00: 0.9875
2024-07-01 06:00: 0.0125
2024-07-01 14:00: 0.9875
Trade Summary: No trades available

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 500110
Question: Will a candidate from another party win Pennsylvania US Senate Election?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 613378.130366
Price History:
2024-07-02 02:00: 0.9875
2024-07-02 11:00: 0.0125
2024-07-02 19:00: 0.9875
2024-07-03 04:00: 0.0125
2024-07-03 12:00: 0.9875
2024-07-03 21:00: 0.0125
2024-07-04 05:00: 0.9875
2024-07-04 14:00: 0.0125
2024-07-04 22:00: 0.9875
2024-07-05 07:00: 0.0125
2024-07-05 15:00: 0.9875
2024-07-06 00:00: 0.0125
2024-07-06 08:00: 0.9875
2024-07-06 17:00: 0.0125
2024-07-07 01:00: 0.9875
2024-07-07 10:00: 0.0125
2024-07-07 18:00: 0.9875
2024-07-08 03:00: 0.0125
2024-07-08 11:00: 0.9875
2024-07-08 20:00: 0.0125
2024-07-09 04:00: 0.9875
2024-07-09 13:00: 0.0125
2024-07-09 21:00: 0.9875
2024-07-10 06:00: 0.0125
2024-07-10 14:00: 0.9875
2024-07-10 23:00: 0.0125
2024-07-11 07:00: 0.9875
2024-07-11 16:00: 0.0125
2024-07-12 00:00: 0.9875
2024-07-12 09:00: 0.0125
2024-07-12 17:00: 0.9875
2024-07-13 02:00: 0.0125
2024-07-13 10:00: 0.9875
2024-07-13 19:00: 0.0125
2024-07-14 03:00: 0.9875
2024-07-14 12:00: 0.0125
2024-07-14 20:00: 0.9875
2024-07-15 05:00: 0.0125
2024-07-15 13:00: 0.9880
2024-07-15 22:00: 0.0120
2024-07-16 06:00: 0.9880
2024-07-16 15:00: 0.0120
2024-07-16 23:00: 0.9880
2024-07-17 08:00: 0.0120
2024-07-17 16:00: 0.9880
2024-07-18 01:00: 0.0110
2024-07-18 09:00: 0.9890
2024-07-18 18:00: 0.0110
2024-07-19 02:00: 0.9890
2024-07-19 11:00: 0.0110
Trade Summary: No trades available

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 500110
Question: Will a candidate from another party win Pennsylvania US Senate Election?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 613378.130366
Price History:
2024-07-19 23:00: 0.0110
2024-07-20 07:00: 0.9890
2024-07-20 16:00: 0.0120
2024-07-21 00:00: 0.9880
2024-07-21 09:00: 0.0120
2024-07-21 18:00: 0.9880
2024-07-22 03:00: 0.0120
2024-07-22 11:00: 0.9880
2024-07-22 20:00: 0.0120
2024-07-23 04:00: 0.9880
2024-07-23 13:00: 0.0120
2024-07-23 21:00: 0.9875
2024-07-24 06:00: 0.0125
2024-07-24 14:00: 0.9875
2024-07-24 23:00: 0.0125
2024-07-25 07:00: 0.9875
2024-07-25 16:00: 0.0125
2024-07-26 00:00: 0.9875
2024-07-26 09:00: 0.0125
2024-07-26 17:00: 0.9875
2024-07-27 02:00: 0.0125
2024-07-27 10:00: 0.9875
2024-07-27 19:00: 0.0125
2024-07-28 03:00: 0.9875
2024-07-28 12:00: 0.0125
2024-07-28 20:00: 0.9870
2024-07-29 05:00: 0.0130
2024-07-29 13:00: 0.9870
2024-07-29 22:00: 0.0125
2024-07-30 06:00: 0.9875
2024-07-30 15:00: 0.0125
2024-07-30 23:00: 0.9875
2024-07-31 08:00: 0.0125
2024-07-31 16:00: 0.9865
2024-08-01 01:00: 0.0130
2024-08-01 09:00: 0.9875
2024-08-01 18:00: 0.0115
2024-08-02 02:00: 0.9890
2024-08-02 11:00: 0.0110
2024-08-02 19:00: 0.9890
2024-08-03 04:00: 0.0115
2024-08-03 12:00: 0.9905
2024-08-03 21:00: 0.0070
2024-08-04 05:00: 0.9915
2024-08-04 14:00: 0.0085
2024-08-04 22:00: 0.9915
2024-08-05 07:00: 0.0085
2024-08-05 15:00: 0.9945
2024-08-06 00:00: 0.0055
2024-08-06 08:00: 0.9945
Trade Summary: No trades available

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 500110
Question: Will a candidate from another party win Pennsylvania US Senate Election?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 613378.130366
Price History:
2024-08-06 20:00: 0.9945
2024-08-07 05:00: 0.0055
2024-08-07 13:00: 0.9945
2024-08-07 22:00: 0.0050
2024-08-08 06:00: 0.9955
2024-08-08 15:00: 0.0045
2024-08-08 23:00: 0.9955
2024-08-09 08:00: 0.0045
2024-08-09 16:00: 0.9960
2024-08-10 01:00: 0.0040
2024-08-10 09:00: 0.9960
2024-08-10 18:00: 0.0045
2024-08-11 02:00: 0.9950
2024-08-11 11:00: 0.0055
2024-08-11 19:00: 0.9945
2024-08-12 04:00: 0.0055
2024-08-12 12:00: 0.9950
2024-08-12 21:00: 0.0050
2024-08-13 05:00: 0.9950
2024-08-13 14:00: 0.0045
2024-08-13 22:00: 0.9955
2024-08-14 07:00: 0.0045
2024-08-14 15:00: 0.9955
2024-08-15 00:00: 0.0045
2024-08-15 08:00: 0.9945
2024-08-15 17:00: 0.0055
2024-08-16 01:00: 0.9950
2024-08-16 10:00: 0.0050
2024-08-16 18:00: 0.9955
2024-08-17 03:00: 0.0045
2024-08-17 11:00: 0.9960
2024-08-17 20:00: 0.0040
2024-08-18 04:00: 0.9960
2024-08-18 13:00: 0.0040
2024-08-18 21:00: 0.9960
2024-08-19 06:00: 0.0040
2024-08-19 14:00: 0.9960
2024-08-19 23:00: 0.0035
2024-08-20 07:00: 0.9960
2024-08-20 16:00: 0.0040
2024-08-21 00:00: 0.9960
2024-08-21 09:00: 0.0040
2024-08-21 17:00: 0.9955
2024-08-22 02:00: 0.0025
2024-08-22 10:00: 0.9975
2024-08-22 19:00: 0.0025
2024-08-23 03:00: 0.9975
2024-08-23 12:00: 0.0025
2024-08-23 20:00: 0.9975
2024-08-24 05:00: 0.0025
Trade Summary: No trades available

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 500110
Question: Will a candidate from another party win Pennsylvania US Senate Election?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 613378.130366
Price History:
2024-08-24 17:00: 0.0025
2024-08-25 01:00: 0.9985
2024-08-25 10:00: 0.0015
2024-08-25 18:00: 0.9985
2024-08-26 03:00: 0.0015
2024-08-26 11:00: 0.9985
2024-08-26 20:00: 0.0015
2024-08-27 04:00: 0.9985
2024-08-27 13:00: 0.0015
2024-08-27 21:00: 0.9980
2024-08-28 06:00: 0.0015
2024-08-28 14:00: 0.9985
2024-08-28 23:00: 0.0015
2024-08-29 07:00: 0.9985
2024-08-29 16:00: 0.0015
2024-08-30 00:00: 0.9985
2024-08-30 09:00: 0.0015
2024-08-30 17:00: 0.9985
2024-08-31 02:00: 0.0015
2024-08-31 10:00: 0.9985
2024-08-31 19:00: 0.0015
2024-09-01 03:00: 0.9985
2024-09-01 12:00: 0.0015
2024-09-01 20:00: 0.9985
2024-09-02 05:00: 0.0015
2024-09-02 13:00: 0.9985
2024-09-02 22:00: 0.0020
2024-09-03 06:00: 0.9980
2024-09-03 15:00: 0.0020
2024-09-03 23:00: 0.9980
2024-09-04 08:00: 0.0020
2024-09-04 16:00: 0.9980
2024-09-05 01:00: 0.0020
2024-09-05 09:00: 0.9980
2024-09-05 18:00: 0.0020
2024-09-06 02:00: 0.9980
2024-09-06 11:00: 0.0020
2024-09-06 19:00: 0.9980
2024-09-07 04:00: 0.0020
2024-09-07 12:00: 0.9980
2024-09-07 21:00: 0.0020
2024-09-08 05:00: 0.9980
2024-09-08 14:00: 0.0020
2024-09-08 22:00: 0.9970
2024-09-09 07:00: 0.0035
2024-09-09 15:00: 0.9980
2024-09-10 00:00: 0.0020
2024-09-10 08:00: 0.9980
2024-09-10 17:00: 0.0020
2024-09-11 01:00: 0.9970
Trade Summary: No trades available

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 500110
Question: Will a candidate from another party win Pennsylvania US Senate Election?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 613378.130366
Price History:
2024-09-11 13:00: 0.9970
2024-09-11 22:00: 0.0030
2024-09-12 06:00: 0.9970
2024-09-12 15:00: 0.0030
2024-09-12 23:00: 0.9970
2024-09-13 08:00: 0.0030
2024-09-13 16:00: 0.9975
2024-09-14 01:00: 0.0025
2024-09-14 09:00: 0.9975
2024-09-14 18:00: 0.0025
2024-09-15 02:00: 0.9975
2024-09-15 11:00: 0.0025
2024-09-15 19:00: 0.9980
2024-09-16 04:00: 0.0020
2024-09-16 12:00: 0.9980
2024-09-16 21:00: 0.0025
2024-09-17 05:00: 0.9975
2024-09-17 14:00: 0.0025
2024-09-17 22:00: 0.9975
2024-09-18 07:00: 0.0025
2024-09-18 15:00: 0.9980
2024-09-19 00:00: 0.0020
2024-09-19 08:00: 0.9980
2024-09-19 17:00: 0.0025
2024-09-20 01:00: 0.9975
2024-09-20 10:00: 0.0025
2024-09-20 18:00: 0.9975
2024-09-21 03:00: 0.0025
2024-09-21 11:00: 0.9975
2024-09-21 20:00: 0.0025
2024-09-22 04:00: 0.9975
2024-09-22 13:00: 0.0025
2024-09-22 21:00: 0.9975
2024-09-23 06:00: 0.0025
2024-09-23 14:00: 0.9975
2024-09-23 23:00: 0.0025
2024-09-24 07:00: 0.9975
2024-09-24 16:00: 0.0025
2024-09-25 00:00: 0.9975
2024-09-25 09:00: 0.0025
2024-09-25 17:00: 0.9975
2024-09-26 02:00: 0.0025
2024-09-26 10:00: 0.9980
2024-09-26 19:00: 0.0015
2024-09-27 03:00: 0.9985
2024-09-27 12:00: 0.0015
2024-09-27 20:00: 0.9985
2024-09-28 05:00: 0.0015
2024-09-28 13:00: 0.9985
2024-09-28 22:00: 0.0020
Trade Summary: No trades available

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 500110
Question: Will a candidate from another party win Pennsylvania US Senate Election?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 613378.130366
Price History:
2024-09-29 10:00: 0.0020
2024-09-29 18:00: 0.9980
2024-09-30 03:00: 0.0020
2024-09-30 11:00: 0.9980
2024-09-30 20:00: 0.0020
2024-10-01 04:00: 0.9980
2024-10-01 13:00: 0.0020
2024-10-01 21:00: 0.9980
2024-10-02 06:00: 0.0020
2024-10-02 13:00: 0.9980
2024-10-02 22:00: 0.0020
2024-10-03 06:00: 0.9980
2024-10-03 15:00: 0.0020
2024-10-03 23:00: 0.9980
2024-10-04 08:00: 0.0020
2024-10-04 16:00: 0.9980
2024-10-05 01:00: 0.0015
2024-10-05 09:00: 0.9985
2024-10-05 18:00: 0.0020
2024-10-06 02:00: 0.9980
2024-10-06 11:00: 0.0020
2024-10-06 19:00: 0.9980
2024-10-07 04:00: 0.0020
2024-10-07 12:00: 0.9980
2024-10-07 21:00: 0.0015
2024-10-08 05:00: 0.9985
2024-10-08 14:00: 0.0020
2024-10-08 22:00: 0.9980
2024-10-09 07:00: 0.0015
2024-10-09 15:00: 0.9985
2024-10-10 00:00: 0.0015
2024-10-10 08:00: 0.9985
2024-10-10 17:00: 0.0020
2024-10-11 01:00: 0.9980
2024-10-11 10:00: 0.0020
2024-10-11 18:00: 0.9980
2024-10-12 03:00: 0.0020
2024-10-12 11:00: 0.9985
2024-10-12 20:00: 0.0015
2024-10-13 04:00: 0.9985
2024-10-13 13:00: 0.0015
2024-10-13 21:00: 0.9985
2024-10-14 06:00: 0.0020
2024-10-14 14:00: 0.9980
2024-10-14 23:00: 0.0020
2024-10-15 07:00: 0.9980
2024-10-15 16:00: 0.0020
2024-10-16 00:00: 0.9980
2024-10-16 09:00: 0.0020
2024-10-16 17:00: 0.9980
Trade Summary: No trades available

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 500110
Question: Will a candidate from another party win Pennsylvania US Senate Election?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 613378.130366
Price History:
2024-10-17 05:00: 0.9980
2024-10-17 14:00: 0.0020
2024-10-17 22:00: 0.9980
2024-10-18 07:00: 0.0015
2024-10-18 15:00: 0.9985
2024-10-19 00:00: 0.0015
2024-10-19 08:00: 0.9985
2024-10-19 17:00: 0.0015
2024-10-20 01:00: 0.9985
2024-10-20 10:00: 0.0015
2024-10-20 18:00: 0.9985
2024-10-21 03:00: 0.0015
2024-10-21 11:00: 0.9985
2024-10-21 20:00: 0.0015
2024-10-22 04:00: 0.9985
2024-10-22 13:00: 0.0015
2024-10-22 21:00: 0.9985
2024-10-23 06:00: 0.0020
2024-10-23 14:00: 0.9980
2024-10-23 23:00: 0.0015
2024-10-24 07:00: 0.9985
2024-10-24 16:00: 0.0015
2024-10-25 00:00: 0.9985
2024-10-25 09:00: 0.0020
2024-10-25 17:00: 0.9980
2024-10-26 02:00: 0.0020
2024-10-26 10:00: 0.9980
2024-10-26 19:00: 0.0020
2024-10-27 03:00: 0.9975
2024-10-27 12:00: 0.0025
2024-10-27 20:00: 0.9970
2024-10-28 05:00: 0.0045
2024-10-28 13:00: 0.9955
2024-10-28 22:00: 0.0045
2024-10-29 06:00: 0.9955
2024-10-29 15:00: 0.0035
2024-10-29 23:00: 0.9965
2024-10-30 08:00: 0.0035
2024-10-30 16:00: 0.9965
2024-10-31 01:00: 0.0035
2024-10-31 09:00: 0.9965
2024-10-31 18:00: 0.0025
2024-11-01 02:00: 0.9975
2024-11-01 11:00: 0.0025
2024-11-01 19:00: 0.9975
2024-11-02 04:00: 0.0040
2024-11-02 12:00: 0.9960
2024-11-02 21:00: 0.0040
2024-11-03 04:00: 0.9960
2024-11-03 13:00: 0.0040
Trade Summary: No trades available

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 500110
Question: Will a candidate from another party win Pennsylvania US Senate Election?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 613378.130366
Price History:
2024-11-04 01:00: 0.0015
2024-11-04 09:00: 0.9985
2024-11-04 18:00: 0.0015
2024-11-05 02:00: 0.9985
2024-11-05 11:00: 0.0005
2024-11-05 20:00: 0.9990
2024-11-06 05:00: 0.0005
2024-11-06 13:00: 0.9995
2024-11-06 22:00: 0.0005
2024-11-07 06:00: 0.9995
2024-11-07 15:00: 0.0005
2024-11-07 23:00: 0.9995
2024-11-08 08:00: 0.0005
2024-11-08 16:00: 0.9995
2024-11-09 01:00: 0.0005
2024-11-09 09:00: 0.9995
2024-11-09 18:00: 0.0010
2024-11-10 02:00: 0.9995
2024-11-10 11:00: 0.0005
2024-11-10 19:00: 0.9995
2024-11-11 04:00: 0.0005
2024-11-11 12:00: 0.9995
2024-11-11 21:00: 0.0005
2024-11-12 05:00: 0.9995
2024-11-12 14:00: 0.0005
2024-11-12 22:00: 0.9995
2024-11-13 07:00: 0.0010
2024-11-13 15:00: 0.9990
2024-11-14 00:00: 0.0005
2024-11-14 08:00: 0.9995
2024-11-14 17:00: 0.0005
2024-11-15 01:00: 0.9995
2024-11-15 10:00: 0.0005
2024-11-15 18:00: 0.9995
2024-11-16 03:00: 0.0005
2024-11-16 11:00: 0.9995
2024-11-16 20:00: 0.0005
2024-11-17 04:00: 0.9995
2024-11-17 13:00: 0.0005
2024-11-17 21:00: 0.9995
2024-11-18 06:00: 0.0005
2024-11-18 14:00: 0.9995
2024-11-18 23:00: 0.0015
2024-11-19 07:00: 0.9985
2024-11-19 16:00: 0.0015
2024-11-20 00:00: 0.9975
2024-11-20 09:00: 0.0010
2024-11-20 17:00: 0.9990
2024-11-21 02:00: 0.0010
2024-11-21 10:00: 0.9995
Trade Summary: No trades available

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 500110
Question: Will a candidate from another party win Pennsylvania US Senate Election?
Volume: 613378.130366
Price History:
2024-04-03 19:00: 0.0145
2024-04-04 09:00: 0.0065
2024-04-04 23:00: 0.0065
2024-04-05 13:00: 0.0065
2024-04-06 03:00: 0.0065
2024-04-06 17:00: 0.0065
2024-04-07 07:00: 0.0120
2024-04-07 21:00: 0.0130
2024-04-08 11:00: 0.0130
2024-04-09 01:00: 0.0130
2024-04-09 15:00: 0.0130
2024-04-10 05:00: 0.0130
2024-04-10 19:00: 0.0130
2024-04-11 09:00: 0.0130
2024-04-11 23:00: 0.0130
2024-04-12 13:00: 0.0130
2024-04-13 03:00: 0.0130
2024-04-13 17:00: 0.0130
2024-04-14 07:00: 0.0130
2024-04-14 21:00: 0.0130
2024-04-15 11:00: 0.0130
2024-04-16 01:00: 0.0130
2024-04-16 15:00: 0.0130
2024-04-17 05:00: 0.0130
2024-04-17 19:00: 0.0130
2024-04-18 09:00: 0.0130
2024-04-18 23:00: 0.0130
2024-04-19 13:00: 0.0130
2024-04-20 03:00: 0.0130
2024-04-20 17:00: 0.0130
Trade Summary: No trades available
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 500110
Question: Will a candidate from another party win Pennsylvania US Senate Election?
Volume: 613378.130366
Price History:
2024-04-21 15:00: 0.9870
2024-04-22 05:00: 0.9870
2024-04-22 19:00: 0.9870
2024-04-23 09:00: 0.9870
2024-04-23 23:00: 0.9870
2024-04-24 13:00: 0.9870
2024-04-25 03:00: 0.9870
2024-04-25 17:00: 0.9870
2024-04-26 07:00: 0.9870
2024-04-26 21:00: 0.9870
2024-04-27 11:00: 0.9870
2024-04-28 01:00: 0.9870
2024-04-28 15:00: 0.9870
2024-04-29 05:00: 0.9870
2024-04-29 19:00: 0.9870
2024-04-30 09:00: 0.9870
2024-04-30 23:00: 0.9870
2024-05-01 13:00: 0.9870
2024-05-02 04:00: 0.9870
2024-05-02 18:00: 0.9870
2024-05-03 08:00: 0.9870
2024-05-03 22:00: 0.9870
2024-05-04 12:00: 0.9870
2024-05-05 02:00: 0.9870
2024-05-05 16:00: 0.9870
2024-05-06 06:00: 0.9870
2024-05-06 20:00: 0.9870
2024-05-07 10:00: 0.9870
2024-05-08 00:00: 0.9870
2024-05-08 14:00: 0.9870
Trade Summary: No trades available
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 500110
Question: Will a candidate from another party win Pennsylvania US Senate Election?
Volume: 613378.130366
Price History:
2024-05-09 13:00: 0.0130
2024-05-10 03:00: 0.0130
2024-05-10 17:00: 0.0130
2024-05-11 07:00: 0.0130
2024-05-11 21:00: 0.0130
2024-05-12 11:00: 0.0130
2024-05-13 01:00: 0.0130
2024-05-13 15:00: 0.0130
2024-05-14 05:00: 0.0130
2024-05-14 19:00: 0.0130
2024-05-15 09:00: 0.0130
2024-05-15 23:00: 0.0125
2024-05-16 13:00: 0.0125
2024-05-17 03:00: 0.0125
2024-05-17 17:00: 0.0125
2024-05-18 07:00: 0.0125
2024-05-18 21:00: 0.0125
2024-05-19 11:00: 0.0125
2024-05-20 01:00: 0.0125
2024-05-20 15:00: 0.0125
2024-05-21 05:00: 0.0125
2024-05-21 19:00: 0.0125
2024-05-22 09:00: 0.0125
2024-05-22 23:00: 0.0125
2024-05-23 13:00: 0.0125
2024-05-24 03:00: 0.0125
2024-05-24 17:00: 0.0125
2024-05-25 07:00: 0.0125
2024-05-25 21:00: 0.0125
2024-05-26 11:00: 0.0125
Trade Summary: No trades available
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 500110
Question: Will a candidate from another party win Pennsylvania US Senate Election?
Volume: 613378.130366
Price History:
2024-05-27 09:00: 0.9875
2024-05-27 23:00: 0.9875
2024-05-28 13:00: 0.9875
2024-05-29 03:00: 0.9875
2024-05-29 17:00: 0.9875
2024-05-30 07:00: 0.9875
2024-05-30 21:00: 0.9875
2024-05-31 11:00: 0.9875
2024-06-01 01:00: 0.9875
2024-06-01 15:00: 0.9875
2024-06-02 05:00: 0.9875
2024-06-02 19:00: 0.9875
2024-06-03 09:00: 0.9875
2024-06-03 23:00: 0.9875
2024-06-04 13:00: 0.9875
2024-06-05 03:00: 0.9875
2024-06-05 17:00: 0.9875
2024-06-06 07:00: 0.9875
2024-06-06 21:00: 0.9875
2024-06-07 11:00: 0.9875
2024-06-08 01:00: 0.9875
2024-06-08 15:00: 0.9875
2024-06-09 05:00: 0.9875
2024-06-09 19:00: 0.9875
2024-06-10 09:00: 0.9875
2024-06-10 23:00: 0.9875
2024-06-11 13:00: 0.9875
2024-06-12 03:00: 0.9875
2024-06-12 17:00: 0.9875
2024-06-13 07:00: 0.9875
Trade Summary: No trades available
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 500110
Question: Will a candidate from another party win Pennsylvania US Senate Election?
Volume: 613378.130366
Price History:
2024-06-14 06:00: 0.0125
2024-06-14 20:00: 0.0125
2024-06-15 10:00: 0.0125
2024-06-16 00:00: 0.0125
2024-06-16 14:00: 0.0125
2024-06-17 04:00: 0.0125
2024-06-17 18:00: 0.0125
2024-06-18 08:00: 0.0125
2024-06-18 22:00: 0.0125
2024-06-19 12:00: 0.0125
2024-06-20 02:00: 0.0125
2024-06-20 16:00: 0.0125
2024-06-21 06:00: 0.0125
2024-06-21 20:00: 0.0125
2024-06-22 10:00: 0.0125
2024-06-23 00:00: 0.0125
2024-06-23 14:00: 0.0125
2024-06-24 04:00: 0.0125
2024-06-24 18:00: 0.0125
2024-06-25 08:00: 0.0125
2024-06-25 22:00: 0.0125
2024-06-26 12:00: 0.0125
2024-06-27 02:00: 0.0125
2024-06-27 16:00: 0.0125
2024-06-28 06:00: 0.0130
2024-06-28 20:00: 0.0130
2024-06-29 10:00: 0.0125
2024-06-30 00:00: 0.0125
2024-06-30 14:00: 0.0125
2024-07-01 04:00: 0.0125
Trade Summary: No trades available
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 500110
Question: Will a candidate from another party win Pennsylvania US Senate Election?
Volume: 613378.130366
Price History:
2024-07-02 02:00: 0.9875
2024-07-02 16:00: 0.9875
2024-07-03 06:00: 0.9875
2024-07-03 20:00: 0.9875
2024-07-04 10:00: 0.9875
2024-07-05 00:00: 0.9875
2024-07-05 14:00: 0.9875
2024-07-06 04:00: 0.9875
2024-07-06 18:00: 0.9875
2024-07-07 08:00: 0.9875
2024-07-07 22:00: 0.9875
2024-07-08 12:00: 0.9875
2024-07-09 02:00: 0.9875
2024-07-09 16:00: 0.9875
2024-07-10 06:00: 0.9875
2024-07-10 20:00: 0.9875
2024-07-11 10:00: 0.9875
2024-07-12 00:00: 0.9875
2024-07-12 14:00: 0.9875
2024-07-13 04:00: 0.9875
2024-07-13 18:00: 0.9875
2024-07-14 08:00: 0.9875
2024-07-14 22:00: 0.9875
2024-07-15 12:00: 0.9880
2024-07-16 02:00: 0.9880
2024-07-16 16:00: 0.9880
2024-07-17 06:00: 0.9880
2024-07-17 20:00: 0.9880
2024-07-18 10:00: 0.9890
2024-07-19 00:00: 0.9890
Trade Summary: No trades available
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 500110
Question: Will a candidate from another party win Pennsylvania US Senate Election?
Volume: 613378.130366
Price History:
2024-07-19 23:00: 0.0110
2024-07-20 13:00: 0.0120
2024-07-21 03:00: 0.0120
2024-07-21 18:00: 0.0120
2024-07-22 08:00: 0.0120
2024-07-22 22:00: 0.0120
2024-07-23 12:00: 0.0120
2024-07-24 02:00: 0.0125
2024-07-24 16:00: 0.0125
2024-07-25 06:00: 0.0125
2024-07-25 20:00: 0.0125
2024-07-26 10:00: 0.0125
2024-07-27 00:00: 0.0125
2024-07-27 14:00: 0.0125
2024-07-28 04:00: 0.0125
2024-07-28 18:00: 0.0125
2024-07-29 08:00: 0.0130
2024-07-29 22:00: 0.0125
2024-07-30 12:00: 0.0125
2024-07-31 02:00: 0.0125
2024-07-31 16:00: 0.0135
2024-08-01 06:00: 0.0125
2024-08-01 20:00: 0.0115
2024-08-02 10:00: 0.0110
2024-08-03 00:00: 0.0110
2024-08-03 14:00: 0.0095
2024-08-04 04:00: 0.0085
2024-08-04 18:00: 0.0085
2024-08-05 08:00: 0.0085
2024-08-05 22:00: 0.0055
Trade Summary: No trades available
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 500110
Question: Will a candidate from another party win Pennsylvania US Senate Election?
Volume: 613378.130366
Price History:
2024-08-06 20:00: 0.9945
2024-08-07 10:00: 0.9945
2024-08-08 00:00: 0.9950
2024-08-08 14:00: 0.9955
2024-08-09 04:00: 0.9955
2024-08-09 18:00: 0.9960
2024-08-10 08:00: 0.9960
2024-08-10 22:00: 0.9955
2024-08-11 12:00: 0.9945
2024-08-12 02:00: 0.9945
2024-08-12 16:00: 0.9950
2024-08-13 06:00: 0.9950
2024-08-13 20:00: 0.9955
2024-08-14 10:00: 0.9955
2024-08-15 00:00: 0.9955
2024-08-15 14:00: 0.9945
2024-08-16 04:00: 0.9950
2024-08-16 18:00: 0.9955
2024-08-17 08:00: 0.9955
2024-08-17 22:00: 0.9960
2024-08-18 12:00: 0.9960
2024-08-19 02:00: 0.9960
2024-08-19 16:00: 0.9960
2024-08-20 06:00: 0.9960
2024-08-20 20:00: 0.9965
2024-08-21 10:00: 0.9960
2024-08-22 00:00: 0.9960
2024-08-22 14:00: 0.9975
2024-08-23 04:00: 0.9975
2024-08-23 18:00: 0.9975
Trade Summary: No trades available
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 500110
Question: Will a candidate from another party win Pennsylvania US Senate Election?
Volume: 613378.130366
Price History:
2024-08-24 17:00: 0.0025
2024-08-25 07:00: 0.0015
2024-08-25 21:00: 0.0015
2024-08-26 11:00: 0.0015
2024-08-27 01:00: 0.0015
2024-08-27 15:00: 0.0015
2024-08-28 05:00: 0.0015
2024-08-28 19:00: 0.0015
2024-08-29 09:00: 0.0015
2024-08-29 23:00: 0.0015
2024-08-30 13:00: 0.0015
2024-08-31 03:00: 0.0015
2024-08-31 17:00: 0.0015
2024-09-01 07:00: 0.0015
2024-09-01 21:00: 0.0015
2024-09-02 11:00: 0.0015
2024-09-03 01:00: 0.0020
2024-09-03 15:00: 0.0020
2024-09-04 05:00: 0.0020
2024-09-04 19:00: 0.0020
2024-09-05 09:00: 0.0020
2024-09-05 23:00: 0.0020
2024-09-06 13:00: 0.0020
2024-09-07 03:00: 0.0020
2024-09-07 17:00: 0.0020
2024-09-08 07:00: 0.0020
2024-09-08 21:00: 0.0030
2024-09-09 11:00: 0.0020
2024-09-10 01:00: 0.0020
2024-09-10 15:00: 0.0020
Trade Summary: No trades available
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 500110
Question: Will a candidate from another party win Pennsylvania US Senate Election?
Volume: 613378.130366
Price History:
2024-09-11 13:00: 0.9970
2024-09-12 03:00: 0.9970
2024-09-12 17:00: 0.9970
2024-09-13 07:00: 0.9970
2024-09-13 21:00: 0.9975
2024-09-14 11:00: 0.9975
2024-09-15 01:00: 0.9975
2024-09-15 15:00: 0.9980
2024-09-16 05:00: 0.9980
2024-09-16 19:00: 0.9975
2024-09-17 09:00: 0.9975
2024-09-17 23:00: 0.9975
2024-09-18 13:00: 0.9975
2024-09-19 03:00: 0.9980
2024-09-19 17:00: 0.9975
2024-09-20 07:00: 0.9975
2024-09-20 21:00: 0.9975
2024-09-21 11:00: 0.9975
2024-09-22 01:00: 0.9975
2024-09-22 15:00: 0.9975
2024-09-23 05:00: 0.9975
2024-09-23 19:00: 0.9975
2024-09-24 09:00: 0.9975
2024-09-24 23:00: 0.9975
2024-09-25 13:00: 0.9975
2024-09-26 03:00: 0.9975
2024-09-26 17:00: 0.9985
2024-09-27 07:00: 0.9985
2024-09-27 21:00: 0.9985
2024-09-28 11:00: 0.9985
Trade Summary: No trades available
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 500110
Question: Will a candidate from another party win Pennsylvania US Senate Election?
Volume: 613378.130366
Price History:
2024-09-29 10:00: 0.0020
2024-09-30 00:00: 0.0020
2024-09-30 14:00: 0.0020
2024-10-01 04:00: 0.0020
2024-10-01 18:00: 0.0020
2024-10-02 08:00: 0.0020
2024-10-02 21:00: 0.0020
2024-10-03 11:00: 0.0020
2024-10-04 01:00: 0.0020
2024-10-04 15:00: 0.0020
2024-10-05 05:00: 0.0015
2024-10-05 19:00: 0.0020
2024-10-06 09:00: 0.0020
2024-10-06 23:00: 0.0020
2024-10-07 13:00: 0.0020
2024-10-08 03:00: 0.0015
2024-10-08 17:00: 0.0020
2024-10-09 07:00: 0.0015
2024-10-09 21:00: 0.0015
2024-10-10 11:00: 0.0020
2024-10-11 01:00: 0.0020
2024-10-11 15:00: 0.0020
2024-10-12 05:00: 0.0020
2024-10-12 19:00: 0.0015
2024-10-13 09:00: 0.0015
2024-10-13 23:00: 0.0015
2024-10-14 13:00: 0.0020
2024-10-15 03:00: 0.0020
2024-10-15 17:00: 0.0020
2024-10-16 07:00: 0.0020
Trade Summary: No trades available
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 500110
Question: Will a candidate from another party win Pennsylvania US Senate Election?
Volume: 613378.130366
Price History:
2024-10-17 05:00: 0.9980
2024-10-17 19:00: 0.9980
2024-10-18 09:00: 0.9985
2024-10-18 23:00: 0.9985
2024-10-19 13:00: 0.9985
2024-10-20 03:00: 0.9985
2024-10-20 17:00: 0.9985
2024-10-21 07:00: 0.9985
2024-10-21 21:00: 0.9985
2024-10-22 11:00: 0.9985
2024-10-23 01:00: 0.9980
2024-10-23 15:00: 0.9980
2024-10-24 05:00: 0.9985
2024-10-24 19:00: 0.9985
2024-10-25 09:00: 0.9980
2024-10-25 23:00: 0.9980
2024-10-26 13:00: 0.9980
2024-10-27 03:00: 0.9975
2024-10-27 17:00: 0.9970
2024-10-28 07:00: 0.9955
2024-10-28 21:00: 0.9955
2024-10-29 11:00: 0.9965
2024-10-30 01:00: 0.9965
2024-10-30 15:00: 0.9965
2024-10-31 05:00: 0.9965
2024-10-31 19:00: 0.9975
2024-11-01 09:00: 0.9975
2024-11-01 23:00: 0.9975
2024-11-02 13:00: 0.9960
2024-11-03 02:00: 0.9960
Trade Summary: No trades available
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 500110
Question: Will a candidate from another party win Pennsylvania US Senate Election?
Volume: 613378.130366
Price History:
2024-11-04 01:00: 0.0015
2024-11-04 15:00: 0.0015
2024-11-05 05:00: 0.0015
2024-11-05 20:00: 0.0010
2024-11-06 10:00: 0.0005
2024-11-07 00:00: 0.0005
2024-11-07 14:00: 0.0005
2024-11-08 04:00: 0.0005
2024-11-08 18:00: 0.0005
2024-11-09 08:00: 0.0005
2024-11-09 22:00: 0.0010
2024-11-10 12:00: 0.0005
2024-11-11 02:00: 0.0005
2024-11-11 16:00: 0.0005
2024-11-12 06:00: 0.0005
2024-11-12 20:00: 0.0005
2024-11-13 10:00: 0.0010
2024-11-14 00:00: 0.0005
2024-11-14 14:00: 0.0005
2024-11-15 04:00: 0.0005
2024-11-15 18:00: 0.0005
2024-11-16 08:00: 0.0005
2024-11-16 22:00: 0.0005
2024-11-17 12:00: 0.0005
2024-11-18 02:00: 0.0005
2024-11-18 16:00: 0.0005
2024-11-19 06:00: 0.0015
2024-11-19 20:00: 0.0015
2024-11-20 10:00: 0.0010
2024-11-21 00:00: 0.0010
Trade Summary: No trades available
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 518036
Question: US government shutdown in 2025?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 3512314.570564
Price History:
2025-01-09 18:00: 0.3850
2025-01-10 03:00: 0.8100
2025-01-10 13:00: 0.1550
2025-01-10 22:00: 0.8750
2025-01-11 08:00: 0.1250
2025-01-11 17:00: 0.8750
2025-01-12 03:00: 0.1300
2025-01-12 12:00: 0.8700
2025-01-12 22:00: 0.1350
2025-01-13 07:00: 0.8600
2025-01-13 17:00: 0.1450
2025-01-14 02:00: 0.8600
2025-01-14 12:00: 0.1400
2025-01-14 21:00: 0.8600
2025-01-15 07:00: 0.1450
2025-01-15 16:00: 0.8550
2025-01-16 02:00: 0.1450
2025-01-16 11:00: 0.8450
2025-01-16 21:00: 0.1550
2025-01-17 06:00: 0.8450
2025-01-17 16:00: 0.1550
2025-01-18 01:00: 0.8350
2025-01-18 11:00: 0.1650
2025-01-18 20:00: 0.8350
2025-01-19 06:00: 0.1650
2025-01-19 15:00: 0.8350
2025-01-20 01:00: 0.1700
2025-01-20 10:00: 0.8300
2025-01-20 20:00: 0.1700
2025-01-21 05:00: 0.8300
2025-01-21 15:00: 0.1750
2025-01-22 00:00: 0.8200
2025-01-22 10:00: 0.1800
2025-01-22 19:00: 0.8200
2025-01-23 05:00: 0.1800
2025-01-23 14:00: 0.8250
2025-01-24 00:00: 0.1850
2025-01-24 09:00: 0.8150
2025-01-24 19:00: 0.2350
2025-01-25 04:00: 0.7650
2025-01-25 14:00: 0.2400
2025-01-25 23:00: 0.7600
2025-01-26 09:00: 0.2400
2025-01-26 18:00: 0.7600
2025-01-27 04:00: 0.2400
2025-01-27 13:00: 0.7600
2025-01-27 23:00: 0.2400
2025-01-28 08:00: 0.7500
2025-01-28 18:00: 0.2800
2025-01-29 03:00: 0.7150
Trade Summary: Total trades: 1000000, Buy volume: 236373556.70, Sell volume: 71849007.17, Average price: 0.5373, Price range: 0.0010 - 0.9990

Output: No


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 518036
Question: US government shutdown in 2025?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 3512314.570564
Price History:
2025-01-30 02:00: 0.2950
2025-01-30 11:00: 0.7050
2025-01-30 21:00: 0.2950
2025-01-31 06:00: 0.7050
2025-01-31 16:00: 0.2950
2025-02-01 01:00: 0.7050
2025-02-01 11:00: 0.3050
2025-02-01 20:00: 0.6900
2025-02-02 06:00: 0.3100
2025-02-02 15:00: 0.6900
2025-02-03 01:00: 0.3100
2025-02-03 10:00: 0.6950
2025-02-03 20:00: 0.7200
2025-02-04 05:00: 0.4000
2025-02-04 15:00: 0.5550
2025-02-05 00:00: 0.4750
2025-02-05 10:00: 0.5150
2025-02-05 19:00: 0.4900
2025-02-06 05:00: 0.5050
2025-02-06 14:00: 0.4900
2025-02-07 00:00: 0.5050
2025-02-07 09:00: 0.4850
2025-02-07 19:00: 0.4850
2025-02-08 04:00: 0.5150
2025-02-08 14:00: 0.4900
2025-02-08 23:00: 0.5100
2025-02-09 09:00: 0.4900
2025-02-09 18:00: 0.4550
2025-02-10 04:00: 0.5400
2025-02-10 13:00: 0.3800
2025-02-10 23:00: 0.5950
2025-02-11 08:00: 0.3850
2025-02-11 18:00: 0.6100
2025-02-12 03:00: 0.3900
2025-02-12 13:00: 0.6100
2025-02-12 22:00: 0.3850
2025-02-13 08:00: 0.6150
2025-02-13 17:00: 0.3850
2025-02-14 03:00: 0.6150
2025-02-14 12:00: 0.3850
2025-02-14 22:00: 0.6150
2025-02-15 07:00: 0.3850
2025-02-15 17:00: 0.6150
2025-02-16 02:00: 0.3850
2025-02-16 12:00: 0.6150
2025-02-16 21:00: 0.3850
2025-02-17 07:00: 0.6150
2025-02-17 16:00: 0.3850
2025-02-18 02:00: 0.6150
2025-02-18 11:00: 0.3850
Trade Summary: Total trades: 1000000, Buy volume: 236373556.70, Sell volume: 71849007.17, Average price: 0.5373, Price range: 0.0010 - 0.9990

Output: No


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 518036
Question: US government shutdown in 2025?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 3512314.570564
Price History:
2025-02-19 10:00: 0.6150
2025-02-19 19:00: 0.3750
2025-02-20 05:00: 0.6250
2025-02-20 14:00: 0.3800
2025-02-21 00:00: 0.6200
2025-02-21 09:00: 0.3800
2025-02-21 19:00: 0.6050
2025-02-22 04:00: 0.3950
2025-02-22 14:00: 0.6050
2025-02-22 23:00: 0.3850
2025-02-23 09:00: 0.6100
2025-02-23 18:00: 0.3900
2025-02-24 04:00: 0.6100
2025-02-24 13:00: 0.3950
2025-02-24 23:00: 0.5950
2025-02-25 08:00: 0.4050
2025-02-25 18:00: 0.5950
2025-02-26 03:00: 0.4550
2025-02-26 13:00: 0.5300
2025-02-26 22:00: 0.4400
2025-02-27 08:00: 0.5550
2025-02-27 17:00: 0.4500
2025-02-28 03:00: 0.5350
2025-02-28 12:00: 0.4650
2025-02-28 22:00: 0.5600
2025-03-01 07:00: 0.4500
2025-03-01 17:00: 0.5500
2025-03-02 02:00: 0.4500
2025-03-02 12:00: 0.5500
2025-03-02 21:00: 0.4500
2025-03-03 07:00: 0.5450
2025-03-03 16:00: 0.4350
2025-03-04 02:00: 0.5650
2025-03-04 11:00: 0.4250
2025-03-04 21:00: 0.5800
2025-03-05 06:00: 0.4200
2025-03-05 16:00: 0.5750
2025-03-06 01:00: 0.4300
2025-03-06 11:00: 0.5550
2025-03-06 20:00: 0.4700
2025-03-07 06:00: 0.5250
2025-03-07 15:00: 0.4750
2025-03-08 01:00: 0.4650
2025-03-08 10:00: 0.5250
2025-03-08 20:00: 0.4850
2025-03-09 06:00: 0.5150
2025-03-09 16:00: 0.4900
2025-03-10 01:00: 0.4900
2025-03-10 11:00: 0.5250
2025-03-10 20:00: 0.4750
Trade Summary: Total trades: 1000000, Buy volume: 236373556.70, Sell volume: 71849007.17, Average price: 0.5373, Price range: 0.0010 - 0.9990

Output: No


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 518036
Question: US government shutdown in 2025?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 3512314.570564
Price History:
2025-03-11 19:00: 0.3900
2025-03-12 04:00: 0.6650
2025-03-12 14:00: 0.3600
2025-03-12 23:00: 0.4600
2025-03-13 09:00: 0.5400
2025-03-13 18:00: 0.6250
2025-03-14 04:00: 0.3600
2025-03-14 13:00: 0.6300
2025-03-14 23:00: 0.3050
2025-03-15 08:00: 0.6650
2025-03-15 18:00: 0.3150
2025-03-16 03:00: 0.6850
2025-03-16 13:00: 0.3200
2025-03-16 22:00: 0.6650
2025-03-17 08:00: 0.3950
2025-03-17 17:00: 0.6350
2025-03-18 03:00: 0.3550
2025-03-18 12:00: 0.6450
2025-03-18 22:00: 0.3650
2025-03-19 07:00: 0.6350
2025-03-19 17:00: 0.3700
2025-03-20 02:00: 0.6350
2025-03-20 12:00: 0.3650
2025-03-20 21:00: 0.6300
2025-03-21 07:00: 0.3750
2025-03-21 16:00: 0.6250
2025-03-22 02:00: 0.3800
2025-03-22 11:00: 0.6150
2025-03-22 21:00: 0.3700
2025-03-23 06:00: 0.6250
2025-03-23 16:00: 0.3850
2025-03-24 01:00: 0.6150
2025-03-24 11:00: 0.3800
2025-03-24 20:00: 0.6200
2025-03-25 06:00: 0.3850
2025-03-25 15:00: 0.6150
2025-03-26 01:00: 0.3850
2025-03-26 10:00: 0.6150
2025-03-26 20:00: 0.3850
2025-03-27 05:00: 0.6150
2025-03-27 15:00: 0.3850
2025-03-28 00:00: 0.6150
2025-03-28 10:00: 0.3850
2025-03-28 19:00: 0.6150
2025-03-29 05:00: 0.3850
2025-03-29 14:00: 0.6150
2025-03-30 00:00: 0.3850
2025-03-30 09:00: 0.6250
2025-03-30 19:00: 0.3750
2025-03-31 04:00: 0.6250
Trade Summary: Total trades: 1000000, Buy volume: 236373556.70, Sell volume: 71849007.17, Average price: 0.5373, Price range: 0.0010 - 0.9990

Output: No


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 518036
Question: US government shutdown in 2025?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 3512314.570564
Price History:
2025-04-01 03:00: 0.3750
2025-04-01 12:00: 0.6250
2025-04-01 22:00: 0.3750
2025-04-02 07:00: 0.6250
2025-04-02 17:00: 0.3750
2025-04-03 02:00: 0.6300
2025-04-03 12:00: 0.3750
2025-04-03 21:00: 0.6250
2025-04-04 07:00: 0.3750
2025-04-04 16:00: 0.6250
2025-04-05 02:00: 0.3650
2025-04-05 11:00: 0.6350
2025-04-05 21:00: 0.3650
2025-04-06 06:00: 0.6350
2025-04-06 16:00: 0.3650
2025-04-07 01:00: 0.6600
2025-04-07 11:00: 0.3400
2025-04-07 20:00: 0.6550
2025-04-08 06:00: 0.3400
2025-04-08 15:00: 0.6550
2025-04-09 01:00: 0.3350
2025-04-09 10:00: 0.6650
2025-04-09 20:00: 0.3350
2025-04-10 05:00: 0.6650
2025-04-10 15:00: 0.3350
2025-04-11 00:00: 0.6600
2025-04-11 10:00: 0.3450
2025-04-11 19:00: 0.6600
2025-04-12 05:00: 0.3400
2025-04-12 14:00: 0.6550
2025-04-13 00:00: 0.3450
2025-04-13 09:00: 0.6550
2025-04-13 19:00: 0.3450
2025-04-14 04:00: 0.6550
2025-04-14 14:00: 0.3450
2025-04-14 23:00: 0.6550
2025-04-15 09:00: 0.3450
2025-04-15 18:00: 0.6550
2025-04-16 04:00: 0.3450
2025-04-16 13:00: 0.6550
2025-04-16 23:00: 0.3450
2025-04-17 08:00: 0.6550
2025-04-17 18:00: 0.3450
2025-04-18 03:00: 0.6500
2025-04-18 13:00: 0.3400
2025-04-18 22:00: 0.6600
2025-04-19 08:00: 0.3350
2025-04-19 17:00: 0.6650
2025-04-20 03:00: 0.3350
2025-04-20 12:00: 0.6650
Trade Summary: Total trades: 1000000, Buy volume: 236373556.70, Sell volume: 71849007.17, Average price: 0.5373, Price range: 0.0010 - 0.9990

Output: No


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 518036
Question: US government shutdown in 2025?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 3512314.570564
Price History:
2025-04-21 11:00: 0.3350
2025-04-21 20:00: 0.6700
2025-04-22 06:00: 0.3300
2025-04-22 15:00: 0.6700
2025-04-23 01:00: 0.3350
2025-04-23 10:00: 0.6650
2025-04-23 20:00: 0.3350
2025-04-24 05:00: 0.6600
2025-04-24 15:00: 0.3350
2025-04-25 00:00: 0.6650
2025-04-25 10:00: 0.3350
2025-04-25 19:00: 0.6550
2025-04-26 05:00: 0.3400
2025-04-26 14:00: 0.6600
2025-04-27 00:00: 0.3400
2025-04-27 09:00: 0.6550
2025-04-27 19:00: 0.3450
2025-04-28 04:00: 0.6600
2025-04-28 14:00: 0.3400
2025-04-28 23:00: 0.6550
2025-04-29 09:00: 0.3450
2025-04-29 18:00: 0.6550
2025-04-30 04:00: 0.3350
2025-04-30 13:00: 0.6650
2025-04-30 23:00: 0.3350
2025-05-01 08:00: 0.6650
2025-05-01 18:00: 0.3350
2025-05-02 03:00: 0.6650
2025-05-02 13:00: 0.3350
2025-05-02 22:00: 0.6650
2025-05-03 08:00: 0.3350
2025-05-03 17:00: 0.6650
2025-05-04 03:00: 0.3350
2025-05-04 12:00: 0.6650
2025-05-04 22:00: 0.3350
2025-05-05 07:00: 0.6650
2025-05-05 17:00: 0.3350
2025-05-06 02:00: 0.6650
2025-05-06 12:00: 0.3350
2025-05-06 21:00: 0.6650
2025-05-07 07:00: 0.3350
2025-05-07 16:00: 0.6650
2025-05-08 02:00: 0.3350
2025-05-08 11:00: 0.6650
2025-05-08 21:00: 0.3350
2025-05-09 06:00: 0.6650
2025-05-09 16:00: 0.3250
2025-05-10 01:00: 0.6750
2025-05-10 11:00: 0.3250
2025-05-10 20:00: 0.6750
Trade Summary: Total trades: 1000000, Buy volume: 236373556.70, Sell volume: 71849007.17, Average price: 0.5373, Price range: 0.0010 - 0.9990

Output: No


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 518036
Question: US government shutdown in 2025?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 3512314.570564
Price History:
2025-05-11 19:00: 0.3250
2025-05-12 04:00: 0.6750
2025-05-12 14:00: 0.3250
2025-05-12 23:00: 0.6750
2025-05-13 09:00: 0.3250
2025-05-13 18:00: 0.6750
2025-05-14 04:00: 0.3250
2025-05-14 13:00: 0.6750
2025-05-14 23:00: 0.3250
2025-05-15 08:00: 0.6750
2025-05-15 18:00: 0.3250
2025-05-16 03:00: 0.6750
2025-05-16 13:00: 0.3250
2025-05-16 22:00: 0.6750
2025-05-17 08:00: 0.3250
2025-05-17 17:00: 0.6750
2025-05-18 03:00: 0.3250
2025-05-18 12:00: 0.6750
2025-05-18 22:00: 0.3250
2025-05-19 07:00: 0.6750
2025-05-19 17:00: 0.3250
2025-05-20 02:00: 0.6750
2025-05-20 12:00: 0.3250
2025-05-20 21:00: 0.6850
2025-05-21 07:00: 0.3150
2025-05-21 16:00: 0.6800
2025-05-22 02:00: 0.3200
2025-05-22 11:00: 0.6800
2025-05-22 21:00: 0.3200
2025-05-23 06:00: 0.6750
2025-05-23 16:00: 0.3250
2025-05-24 01:00: 0.6800
2025-05-24 11:00: 0.3200
2025-05-24 20:00: 0.6850
2025-05-25 06:00: 0.3100
2025-05-25 15:00: 0.6850
2025-05-26 01:00: 0.3200
2025-05-26 10:00: 0.6800
2025-05-26 20:00: 0.3250
2025-05-27 05:00: 0.6750
2025-05-27 15:00: 0.3250
2025-05-28 00:00: 0.6750
2025-05-28 10:00: 0.3250
2025-05-28 19:00: 0.6750
2025-05-29 05:00: 0.3250
2025-05-29 14:00: 0.6750
2025-05-30 00:00: 0.3150
2025-05-30 09:00: 0.6850
2025-05-30 19:00: 0.3150
2025-05-31 04:00: 0.6850
Trade Summary: Total trades: 1000000, Buy volume: 236373556.70, Sell volume: 71849007.17, Average price: 0.5373, Price range: 0.0010 - 0.9990

Output: No


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 518036
Question: US government shutdown in 2025?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 3512314.570564
Price History:
2025-06-01 03:00: 0.3050
2025-06-01 12:00: 0.6950
2025-06-01 22:00: 0.3100
2025-06-02 07:00: 0.6850
2025-06-02 17:00: 0.3150
2025-06-03 02:00: 0.6850
2025-06-03 12:00: 0.3200
2025-06-03 21:00: 0.6800
2025-06-04 07:00: 0.3150
2025-06-04 16:00: 0.6850
2025-06-05 02:00: 0.3150
2025-06-05 11:00: 0.6850
2025-06-05 21:00: 0.3200
2025-06-06 06:00: 0.6850
2025-06-06 16:00: 0.3150
2025-06-07 01:00: 0.6900
2025-06-07 11:00: 0.3050
2025-06-07 20:00: 0.6900
2025-06-08 06:00: 0.3100
2025-06-08 15:00: 0.6900
2025-06-09 01:00: 0.3100
2025-06-09 10:00: 0.6950
2025-06-09 20:00: 0.3050
2025-06-10 05:00: 0.6950
2025-06-10 15:00: 0.3050
2025-06-11 00:00: 0.6950
2025-06-11 10:00: 0.3050
2025-06-11 19:00: 0.6900
2025-06-12 05:00: 0.3100
2025-06-12 14:00: 0.6850
2025-06-13 00:00: 0.3250
2025-06-13 10:00: 0.6750
2025-06-13 20:00: 0.3250
2025-06-14 05:00: 0.6750
2025-06-14 15:00: 0.3250
2025-06-15 00:00: 0.6750
2025-06-15 10:00: 0.3250
2025-06-15 19:00: 0.6750
2025-06-16 05:00: 0.3250
2025-06-16 14:00: 0.6750
2025-06-17 00:00: 0.3250
2025-06-17 09:00: 0.6750
2025-06-17 19:00: 0.3150
2025-06-18 04:00: 0.6850
2025-06-18 14:00: 0.3150
2025-06-18 23:00: 0.6850
2025-06-19 09:00: 0.3150
2025-06-19 18:00: 0.6850
2025-06-20 04:00: 0.3100
2025-06-20 13:00: 0.6800
Trade Summary: Total trades: 1000000, Buy volume: 236373556.70, Sell volume: 71849007.17, Average price: 0.5373, Price range: 0.0010 - 0.9990

Output: No


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 518036
Question: US government shutdown in 2025?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 3512314.570564
Price History:
2025-06-21 12:00: 0.3200
2025-06-21 21:00: 0.6800
2025-06-22 07:00: 0.3200
2025-06-22 16:00: 0.6800
2025-06-23 02:00: 0.3200
2025-06-23 11:00: 0.6800
2025-06-23 21:00: 0.3200
2025-06-24 06:00: 0.6800
2025-06-24 16:00: 0.3150
2025-06-25 01:00: 0.6850
2025-06-25 11:00: 0.3150
2025-06-25 20:00: 0.6750
2025-06-26 06:00: 0.3250
2025-06-26 15:00: 0.6750
2025-06-27 01:00: 0.3250
2025-06-27 10:00: 0.6750
2025-06-27 20:00: 0.3150
2025-06-28 05:00: 0.6850
2025-06-28 15:00: 0.3150
2025-06-29 00:00: 0.6850
2025-06-29 10:00: 0.3150
2025-06-29 19:00: 0.6850
2025-06-30 05:00: 0.3150
2025-06-30 14:00: 0.6900
2025-07-01 00:00: 0.3100
2025-07-01 09:00: 0.6950
2025-07-01 19:00: 0.2950
2025-07-02 04:00: 0.6950
2025-07-02 14:00: 0.3050
2025-07-02 23:00: 0.6950
2025-07-03 09:00: 0.3050
2025-07-03 18:00: 0.7100
2025-07-04 04:00: 0.2900
2025-07-04 13:00: 0.7050
2025-07-04 23:00: 0.2950
2025-07-05 08:00: 0.7050
2025-07-05 18:00: 0.2950
2025-07-06 03:00: 0.7150
2025-07-06 13:00: 0.2750
2025-07-06 22:00: 0.7200
2025-07-07 08:00: 0.2750
2025-07-07 17:00: 0.6950
2025-07-08 03:00: 0.3050
2025-07-08 12:00: 0.6950
2025-07-08 22:00: 0.3250
2025-07-09 07:00: 0.6500
2025-07-09 17:00: 0.4050
2025-07-10 02:00: 0.6050
2025-07-10 12:00: 0.3950
2025-07-10 21:00: 0.6050
Trade Summary: Total trades: 1000000, Buy volume: 236373556.70, Sell volume: 71849007.17, Average price: 0.5373, Price range: 0.0010 - 0.9990

Output: No


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 518036
Question: US government shutdown in 2025?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 3512314.570564
Price History:
2025-07-11 20:00: 0.3950
2025-07-12 05:00: 0.6050
2025-07-12 15:00: 0.4000
2025-07-13 00:00: 0.6000
2025-07-13 10:00: 0.4050
2025-07-13 19:00: 0.5950
2025-07-14 05:00: 0.4050
2025-07-14 14:00: 0.5950
2025-07-15 00:00: 0.4050
2025-07-15 09:00: 0.5950
2025-07-15 19:00: 0.3950
2025-07-16 04:00: 0.6000
2025-07-16 14:00: 0.4000
2025-07-16 23:00: 0.5950
2025-07-17 09:00: 0.4050
2025-07-17 18:00: 0.5950
2025-07-18 04:00: 0.3950
2025-07-18 13:00: 0.6050
2025-07-18 23:00: 0.3950
2025-07-19 08:00: 0.5950
2025-07-19 18:00: 0.4050
2025-07-20 03:00: 0.5950
2025-07-20 13:00: 0.4050
2025-07-20 22:00: 0.5900
2025-07-21 08:00: 0.4100
2025-07-21 17:00: 0.5750
2025-07-22 03:00: 0.4250
2025-07-22 12:00: 0.5750
2025-07-22 22:00: 0.4350
2025-07-23 06:00: 0.5650
2025-07-23 16:00: 0.4350
2025-07-24 01:00: 0.5750
2025-07-24 11:00: 0.4250
2025-07-24 20:00: 0.5750
2025-07-25 06:00: 0.4150
2025-07-25 15:00: 0.5850
2025-07-26 01:00: 0.4150
2025-07-26 10:00: 0.6250
2025-07-26 20:00: 0.3750
2025-07-27 05:00: 0.6250
2025-07-27 15:00: 0.3750
2025-07-28 00:00: 0.6150
2025-07-28 10:00: 0.4050
2025-07-28 19:00: 0.5950
2025-07-29 05:00: 0.3850
2025-07-29 14:00: 0.6150
2025-07-30 00:00: 0.3700
2025-07-30 09:00: 0.6350
2025-07-30 19:00: 0.3650
2025-07-31 04:00: 0.6350
Trade Summary: Total trades: 1000000, Buy volume: 236373556.70, Sell volume: 71849007.17, Average price: 0.5373, Price range: 0.0010 - 0.9990

Output: No


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 518036
Question: US government shutdown in 2025?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 3512314.570564
Price History:
2025-08-01 03:00: 0.3750
2025-08-01 12:00: 0.6250
2025-08-01 22:00: 0.3750
2025-08-02 07:00: 0.6250
2025-08-02 17:00: 0.3750
2025-08-03 02:00: 0.6250
2025-08-03 12:00: 0.3900
2025-08-03 21:00: 0.6150
2025-08-04 07:00: 0.3850
2025-08-04 16:00: 0.6150
2025-08-05 02:00: 0.3850
2025-08-05 11:00: 0.6400
2025-08-05 21:00: 0.3550
2025-08-06 06:00: 0.6450
2025-08-06 16:00: 0.6250
2025-08-07 01:00: 0.6250
2025-08-07 11:00: 0.3750
2025-08-07 20:00: 0.3750
2025-08-08 06:00: 0.3750
2025-08-08 15:00: 0.6250
2025-08-09 01:00: 0.3900
2025-08-09 10:00: 0.6100
2025-08-09 20:00: 0.3850
2025-08-10 05:00: 0.5850
2025-08-10 15:00: 0.4050
2025-08-11 00:00: 0.3900
2025-08-11 10:00: 0.6100
2025-08-11 19:00: 0.3850
2025-08-12 05:00: 0.6250
2025-08-12 14:00: 0.3750
2025-08-13 00:00: 0.3900
2025-08-13 09:00: 0.6100
2025-08-13 19:00: 0.4100
2025-08-14 04:00: 0.6000
2025-08-14 14:00: 0.4050
2025-08-14 23:00: 0.6050
2025-08-15 09:00: 0.3900
2025-08-15 18:00: 0.6050
2025-08-16 04:00: 0.4350
2025-08-16 13:00: 0.5950
2025-08-16 23:00: 0.4050
2025-08-17 08:00: 0.5950
2025-08-17 18:00: 0.5900
2025-08-18 03:00: 0.5950
2025-08-18 13:00: 0.5950
2025-08-18 22:00: 0.4050
2025-08-19 08:00: 0.4000
2025-08-19 17:00: 0.6000
2025-08-20 03:00: 0.6000
2025-08-20 12:00: 0.4000
Trade Summary: Total trades: 1000000, Buy volume: 236373556.70, Sell volume: 71849007.17, Average price: 0.5373, Price range: 0.0010 - 0.9990

Output: No


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 518036
Question: US government shutdown in 2025?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 3512314.570564
Price History:
2025-08-21 11:00: 0.3750
2025-08-21 20:00: 0.3800
2025-08-22 06:00: 0.6200
2025-08-22 15:00: 0.6200
2025-08-23 01:00: 0.6450
2025-08-23 10:00: 0.6450
2025-08-23 20:00: 0.3550
2025-08-24 05:00: 0.6500
2025-08-24 15:00: 0.3450
2025-08-25 00:00: 0.6550
2025-08-25 10:00: 0.6550
2025-08-25 19:00: 0.6550
2025-08-26 04:00: 0.3400
2025-08-26 13:00: 0.3450
2025-08-26 23:00: 0.3350
2025-08-27 08:00: 0.6650
2025-08-27 18:00: 0.3350
2025-08-28 03:00: 0.3350
2025-08-28 13:00: 0.3350
2025-08-28 22:00: 0.6500
2025-08-29 08:00: 0.4050
2025-08-29 17:00: 0.5100
2025-08-30 03:00: 0.4800
2025-08-30 12:00: 0.5500
2025-08-30 22:00: 0.5450
2025-08-31 07:00: 0.5600
2025-08-31 17:00: 0.4200
2025-09-01 02:00: 0.5400
2025-09-01 12:00: 0.4350
2025-09-01 21:00: 0.4750
2025-09-02 07:00: 0.4700
2025-09-02 16:00: 0.4900
2025-09-03 02:00: 0.5250
2025-09-03 11:00: 0.4900
2025-09-03 21:00: 0.5050
2025-09-04 06:00: 0.4950
2025-09-04 16:00: 0.5150
2025-09-05 01:00: 0.5100
2025-09-05 11:00: 0.4700
2025-09-05 20:00: 0.5600
2025-09-06 06:00: 0.5550
2025-09-06 15:00: 0.5650
2025-09-07 01:00: 0.5750
2025-09-07 10:00: 0.5600
2025-09-07 20:00: 0.4950
2025-09-08 05:00: 0.5100
2025-09-08 15:00: 0.5650
2025-09-09 00:00: 0.5000
2025-09-09 10:00: 0.5300
2025-09-09 19:00: 0.4750
Trade Summary: Total trades: 1000000, Buy volume: 236373556.70, Sell volume: 71849007.17, Average price: 0.5373, Price range: 0.0010 - 0.9990

Output: No


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 518036
Question: US government shutdown in 2025?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 3512314.570564
Price History:
2025-09-10 18:00: 0.5550
2025-09-11 03:00: 0.5550
2025-09-11 13:00: 0.5500
2025-09-11 22:00: 0.5250
2025-09-12 08:00: 0.5250
2025-09-12 17:00: 0.5150
2025-09-13 03:00: 0.5500
2025-09-13 12:00: 0.5500
2025-09-13 22:00: 0.4650
2025-09-14 07:00: 0.5300
2025-09-14 17:00: 0.4750
2025-09-15 02:00: 0.5200
2025-09-15 12:00: 0.4500
2025-09-15 21:00: 0.4400
2025-09-16 07:00: 0.5750
2025-09-16 16:00: 0.4250
2025-09-17 02:00: 0.5750
2025-09-17 11:00: 0.4350
2025-09-17 21:00: 0.4400
2025-09-18 07:00: 0.5550
2025-09-18 16:00: 0.5550
2025-09-19 02:00: 0.5650
2025-09-19 11:00: 0.5450
2025-09-19 21:00: 0.4000
2025-09-20 06:00: 0.6250
2025-09-20 16:00: 0.3650
2025-09-21 01:00: 0.6550
2025-09-21 11:00: 0.3350
2025-09-21 20:00: 0.6750
2025-09-22 06:00: 0.2850
2025-09-22 15:00: 0.3150
2025-09-23 01:00: 0.6750
2025-09-23 10:00: 0.2850
2025-09-23 20:00: 0.7050
2025-09-24 05:00: 0.7650
2025-09-24 15:00: 0.2350
2025-09-25 00:00: 0.2450
2025-09-25 10:00: 0.7550
2025-09-25 19:00: 0.7450
2025-09-26 05:00: 0.2400
2025-09-26 14:00: 0.1950
2025-09-27 00:00: 0.1550
2025-09-27 09:00: 0.8200
2025-09-27 19:00: 0.1600
2025-09-28 04:00: 0.6650
2025-09-28 14:00: 0.3200
2025-09-28 23:00: 0.6850
2025-09-29 09:00: 0.2750
2025-09-29 18:00: 0.8500
2025-09-30 04:00: 0.8550
Trade Summary: Total trades: 999978, Buy volume: 236362947.57, Sell volume: 71848205.61, Average price: 0.5373, Price range: 0.0010 - 0.9990

Output: No


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 518036
Question: US government shutdown in 2025?
Volume: 3512314.570564
Price History:
2025-01-09 18:00: 0.3850
2025-01-10 10:00: 0.1550
2025-01-11 02:00: 0.1250
2025-01-11 18:00: 0.1250
2025-01-12 10:00: 0.1300
2025-01-13 02:00: 0.1400
2025-01-13 18:00: 0.1450
2025-01-14 10:00: 0.1400
2025-01-15 02:00: 0.1450
2025-01-15 18:00: 0.1450
2025-01-16 10:00: 0.1550
2025-01-17 02:00: 0.1550
2025-01-17 18:00: 0.1550
2025-01-18 10:00: 0.1650
2025-01-19 02:00: 0.1650
2025-01-19 18:00: 0.1650
2025-01-20 10:00: 0.1700
2025-01-21 02:00: 0.1700
2025-01-21 18:00: 0.1800
2025-01-22 10:00: 0.1800
2025-01-23 02:00: 0.1800
2025-01-23 18:00: 0.1750
2025-01-24 10:00: 0.1850
2025-01-25 02:00: 0.2350
2025-01-25 18:00: 0.2400
2025-01-26 10:00: 0.2400
2025-01-27 02:00: 0.2400
2025-01-27 18:00: 0.2400
2025-01-28 10:00: 0.2500
2025-01-29 02:00: 0.2850
Trade Summary: Total trades: 1000000, Buy volume: 236373556.70, Sell volume: 71849007.17, Average price: 0.5373, Price range: 0.0010 - 0.9990
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike, wash_trading

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 518036
Question: US government shutdown in 2025?
Volume: 3512314.570564
Price History:
2025-01-30 02:00: 0.2950
2025-01-30 18:00: 0.2950
2025-01-31 10:00: 0.2950
2025-02-01 02:00: 0.2950
2025-02-01 18:00: 0.3100
2025-02-02 10:00: 0.3100
2025-02-03 02:00: 0.3100
2025-02-03 18:00: 0.5450
2025-02-04 10:00: 0.6050
2025-02-05 02:00: 0.5350
2025-02-05 18:00: 0.5200
2025-02-06 10:00: 0.5100
2025-02-07 02:00: 0.5150
2025-02-07 18:00: 0.4850
2025-02-08 10:00: 0.4850
2025-02-09 02:00: 0.4900
2025-02-09 18:00: 0.5450
2025-02-10 10:00: 0.6050
2025-02-11 02:00: 0.5950
2025-02-11 18:00: 0.6100
2025-02-12 10:00: 0.6100
2025-02-13 02:00: 0.6150
2025-02-13 18:00: 0.6150
2025-02-14 10:00: 0.6150
2025-02-15 02:00: 0.6150
2025-02-15 18:00: 0.6150
2025-02-16 10:00: 0.6150
2025-02-17 02:00: 0.6150
2025-02-17 18:00: 0.6150
2025-02-18 10:00: 0.6150
Trade Summary: Total trades: 1000000, Buy volume: 236373556.70, Sell volume: 71849007.17, Average price: 0.5373, Price range: 0.0010 - 0.9990
Manipulation Indicators Detected: wash_trading

Output: No


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 518036
Question: US government shutdown in 2025?
Volume: 3512314.570564
Price History:
2025-02-19 10:00: 0.6150
2025-02-20 02:00: 0.6250
2025-02-20 18:00: 0.6200
2025-02-21 10:00: 0.6200
2025-02-22 02:00: 0.6050
2025-02-22 18:00: 0.6050
2025-02-23 10:00: 0.6100
2025-02-24 02:00: 0.6100
2025-02-24 18:00: 0.6050
2025-02-25 10:00: 0.5950
2025-02-26 02:00: 0.5450
2025-02-26 18:00: 0.5300
2025-02-27 10:00: 0.5500
2025-02-28 02:00: 0.5350
2025-02-28 18:00: 0.5550
2025-03-01 10:00: 0.5500
2025-03-02 02:00: 0.5500
2025-03-02 18:00: 0.5500
2025-03-03 10:00: 0.5450
2025-03-04 02:00: 0.5650
2025-03-04 18:00: 0.5800
2025-03-05 10:00: 0.5800
2025-03-06 02:00: 0.5700
2025-03-06 18:00: 0.5300
2025-03-07 10:00: 0.5250
2025-03-08 02:00: 0.4750
2025-03-08 18:00: 0.4750
2025-03-09 11:00: 0.4800
2025-03-10 03:00: 0.5250
2025-03-10 19:00: 0.5250
Trade Summary: Total trades: 1000000, Buy volume: 236373556.70, Sell volume: 71849007.17, Average price: 0.5373, Price range: 0.0010 - 0.9990
Manipulation Indicators Detected: wash_trading

Output: No


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 518036
Question: US government shutdown in 2025?
Volume: 3512314.570564
Price History:
2025-03-11 19:00: 0.3900
2025-03-12 11:00: 0.3450
2025-03-13 03:00: 0.5400
2025-03-13 19:00: 0.3000
2025-03-14 11:00: 0.3600
2025-03-15 03:00: 0.3150
2025-03-15 19:00: 0.3150
2025-03-16 11:00: 0.3150
2025-03-17 03:00: 0.3350
2025-03-17 19:00: 0.3550
2025-03-18 11:00: 0.3550
2025-03-19 03:00: 0.3650
2025-03-19 19:00: 0.3700
2025-03-20 11:00: 0.3700
2025-03-21 03:00: 0.3700
2025-03-21 19:00: 0.3800
2025-03-22 11:00: 0.3850
2025-03-23 03:00: 0.3750
2025-03-23 19:00: 0.3850
2025-03-24 11:00: 0.3800
2025-03-25 03:00: 0.3800
2025-03-25 19:00: 0.3850
2025-03-26 11:00: 0.3850
2025-03-27 03:00: 0.3850
2025-03-27 19:00: 0.3850
2025-03-28 11:00: 0.3850
2025-03-29 03:00: 0.3850
2025-03-29 19:00: 0.3850
2025-03-30 11:00: 0.3750
2025-03-31 03:00: 0.3750
Trade Summary: Total trades: 1000000, Buy volume: 236373556.70, Sell volume: 71849007.17, Average price: 0.5373, Price range: 0.0010 - 0.9990
Manipulation Indicators Detected: wash_trading

Output: No


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 518036
Question: US government shutdown in 2025?
Volume: 3512314.570564
Price History:
2025-04-01 03:00: 0.3750
2025-04-01 19:00: 0.3750
2025-04-02 11:00: 0.3750
2025-04-03 03:00: 0.3700
2025-04-03 19:00: 0.3750
2025-04-04 11:00: 0.3750
2025-04-05 03:00: 0.3650
2025-04-05 19:00: 0.3650
2025-04-06 11:00: 0.3650
2025-04-07 03:00: 0.3450
2025-04-07 19:00: 0.3450
2025-04-08 11:00: 0.3450
2025-04-09 03:00: 0.3350
2025-04-09 19:00: 0.3350
2025-04-10 11:00: 0.3350
2025-04-11 03:00: 0.3400
2025-04-11 19:00: 0.3400
2025-04-12 11:00: 0.3450
2025-04-13 03:00: 0.3450
2025-04-13 19:00: 0.3450
2025-04-14 11:00: 0.3450
2025-04-15 03:00: 0.3450
2025-04-15 19:00: 0.3450
2025-04-16 11:00: 0.3450
2025-04-17 03:00: 0.3450
2025-04-17 19:00: 0.3450
2025-04-18 11:00: 0.3500
2025-04-19 03:00: 0.3350
2025-04-19 19:00: 0.3350
2025-04-20 11:00: 0.3350
Trade Summary: Total trades: 1000000, Buy volume: 236373556.70, Sell volume: 71849007.17, Average price: 0.5373, Price range: 0.0010 - 0.9990
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, wash_trading

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 518036
Question: US government shutdown in 2025?
Volume: 3512314.570564
Price History:
2025-04-21 11:00: 0.3350
2025-04-22 03:00: 0.3300
2025-04-22 19:00: 0.3300
2025-04-23 11:00: 0.3350
2025-04-24 03:00: 0.3400
2025-04-24 19:00: 0.3350
2025-04-25 11:00: 0.3350
2025-04-26 03:00: 0.3400
2025-04-26 19:00: 0.3400
2025-04-27 11:00: 0.3450
2025-04-28 03:00: 0.3400
2025-04-28 19:00: 0.3400
2025-04-29 11:00: 0.3450
2025-04-30 03:00: 0.3350
2025-04-30 19:00: 0.3350
2025-05-01 11:00: 0.3350
2025-05-02 03:00: 0.3350
2025-05-02 19:00: 0.3350
2025-05-03 11:00: 0.3350
2025-05-04 03:00: 0.3350
2025-05-04 19:00: 0.3350
2025-05-05 11:00: 0.3350
2025-05-06 03:00: 0.3350
2025-05-06 19:00: 0.3350
2025-05-07 11:00: 0.3350
2025-05-08 03:00: 0.3350
2025-05-08 19:00: 0.3350
2025-05-09 11:00: 0.3350
2025-05-10 03:00: 0.3250
2025-05-10 19:00: 0.3250
Trade Summary: Total trades: 1000000, Buy volume: 236373556.70, Sell volume: 71849007.17, Average price: 0.5373, Price range: 0.0010 - 0.9990
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, wash_trading

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 518036
Question: US government shutdown in 2025?
Volume: 3512314.570564
Price History:
2025-05-11 19:00: 0.3250
2025-05-12 11:00: 0.3250
2025-05-13 03:00: 0.3250
2025-05-13 19:00: 0.3250
2025-05-14 11:00: 0.3250
2025-05-15 03:00: 0.3250
2025-05-15 19:00: 0.3250
2025-05-16 11:00: 0.3250
2025-05-17 03:00: 0.3250
2025-05-17 19:00: 0.3250
2025-05-18 11:00: 0.3250
2025-05-19 03:00: 0.3250
2025-05-19 19:00: 0.3250
2025-05-20 11:00: 0.3250
2025-05-21 03:00: 0.3150
2025-05-21 19:00: 0.3200
2025-05-22 11:00: 0.3200
2025-05-23 03:00: 0.3200
2025-05-23 19:00: 0.3250
2025-05-24 11:00: 0.3200
2025-05-25 03:00: 0.3100
2025-05-25 19:00: 0.3200
2025-05-26 11:00: 0.3200
2025-05-27 03:00: 0.3250
2025-05-27 19:00: 0.3250
2025-05-28 11:00: 0.3250
2025-05-29 03:00: 0.3250
2025-05-29 19:00: 0.3150
2025-05-30 11:00: 0.3150
2025-05-31 03:00: 0.3150
Trade Summary: Total trades: 1000000, Buy volume: 236373556.70, Sell volume: 71849007.17, Average price: 0.5373, Price range: 0.0010 - 0.9990
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, wash_trading

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 518036
Question: US government shutdown in 2025?
Volume: 3512314.570564
Price History:
2025-06-01 03:00: 0.3050
2025-06-01 19:00: 0.3050
2025-06-02 11:00: 0.3150
2025-06-03 03:00: 0.3150
2025-06-03 19:00: 0.3250
2025-06-04 11:00: 0.3150
2025-06-05 03:00: 0.3150
2025-06-05 19:00: 0.3200
2025-06-06 11:00: 0.3150
2025-06-07 03:00: 0.3100
2025-06-07 19:00: 0.3050
2025-06-08 11:00: 0.3100
2025-06-09 03:00: 0.3100
2025-06-09 19:00: 0.3050
2025-06-10 11:00: 0.3100
2025-06-11 03:00: 0.3050
2025-06-11 19:00: 0.3100
2025-06-12 11:00: 0.3100
2025-06-13 04:00: 0.3250
2025-06-13 20:00: 0.3250
2025-06-14 12:00: 0.3250
2025-06-15 04:00: 0.3250
2025-06-15 20:00: 0.3250
2025-06-16 12:00: 0.3250
2025-06-17 04:00: 0.3250
2025-06-17 20:00: 0.3150
2025-06-18 12:00: 0.3150
2025-06-19 04:00: 0.3150
2025-06-19 20:00: 0.3150
2025-06-20 12:00: 0.3200
Trade Summary: Total trades: 1000000, Buy volume: 236373556.70, Sell volume: 71849007.17, Average price: 0.5373, Price range: 0.0010 - 0.9990
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, wash_trading

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 518036
Question: US government shutdown in 2025?
Volume: 3512314.570564
Price History:
2025-06-21 12:00: 0.3200
2025-06-22 04:00: 0.3200
2025-06-22 20:00: 0.3200
2025-06-23 12:00: 0.3200
2025-06-24 04:00: 0.3200
2025-06-24 20:00: 0.3150
2025-06-25 12:00: 0.3150
2025-06-26 04:00: 0.3250
2025-06-26 20:00: 0.3250
2025-06-27 12:00: 0.3150
2025-06-28 04:00: 0.3150
2025-06-28 20:00: 0.3150
2025-06-29 12:00: 0.3150
2025-06-30 04:00: 0.3150
2025-06-30 20:00: 0.3100
2025-07-01 12:00: 0.3050
2025-07-02 04:00: 0.3050
2025-07-02 20:00: 0.3050
2025-07-03 12:00: 0.3050
2025-07-04 04:00: 0.2900
2025-07-04 20:00: 0.2950
2025-07-05 12:00: 0.2950
2025-07-06 04:00: 0.2850
2025-07-06 20:00: 0.2800
2025-07-07 12:00: 0.3050
2025-07-08 04:00: 0.3050
2025-07-08 20:00: 0.3250
2025-07-09 12:00: 0.4050
2025-07-10 04:00: 0.3950
2025-07-10 20:00: 0.3950
Trade Summary: Total trades: 1000000, Buy volume: 236373556.70, Sell volume: 71849007.17, Average price: 0.5373, Price range: 0.0010 - 0.9990
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, wash_trading

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 518036
Question: US government shutdown in 2025?
Volume: 3512314.570564
Price History:
2025-07-11 20:00: 0.3950
2025-07-12 12:00: 0.4000
2025-07-13 04:00: 0.4000
2025-07-13 20:00: 0.4050
2025-07-14 12:00: 0.4050
2025-07-15 04:00: 0.4050
2025-07-15 20:00: 0.3950
2025-07-16 12:00: 0.4050
2025-07-17 04:00: 0.4050
2025-07-17 20:00: 0.4050
2025-07-18 12:00: 0.3950
2025-07-19 04:00: 0.4050
2025-07-19 20:00: 0.4050
2025-07-20 12:00: 0.4050
2025-07-21 04:00: 0.4100
2025-07-21 20:00: 0.4250
2025-07-22 12:00: 0.4250
2025-07-23 03:00: 0.4350
2025-07-23 19:00: 0.4350
2025-07-24 11:00: 0.4250
2025-07-25 03:00: 0.4150
2025-07-25 19:00: 0.4150
2025-07-26 11:00: 0.3750
2025-07-27 03:00: 0.3750
2025-07-27 19:00: 0.3750
2025-07-28 11:00: 0.4050
2025-07-29 03:00: 0.3850
2025-07-29 19:00: 0.3750
2025-07-30 11:00: 0.3650
2025-07-31 03:00: 0.3650
Trade Summary: Total trades: 1000000, Buy volume: 236373556.70, Sell volume: 71849007.17, Average price: 0.5373, Price range: 0.0010 - 0.9990
Manipulation Indicators Detected: wash_trading

Output: No


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 518036
Question: US government shutdown in 2025?
Volume: 3512314.570564
Price History:
2025-08-01 03:00: 0.3750
2025-08-01 19:00: 0.3750
2025-08-02 11:00: 0.3750
2025-08-03 03:00: 0.3750
2025-08-03 19:00: 0.3850
2025-08-04 11:00: 0.3850
2025-08-05 03:00: 0.3850
2025-08-05 19:00: 0.3550
2025-08-06 11:00: 0.3750
2025-08-07 03:00: 0.3750
2025-08-07 19:00: 0.6250
2025-08-08 11:00: 0.3750
2025-08-09 03:00: 0.3900
2025-08-09 19:00: 0.3850
2025-08-10 11:00: 0.5850
2025-08-11 03:00: 0.3950
2025-08-11 19:00: 0.6150
2025-08-12 11:00: 0.6250
2025-08-13 03:00: 0.6100
2025-08-13 19:00: 0.4100
2025-08-14 11:00: 0.4150
2025-08-15 03:00: 0.3900
2025-08-15 19:00: 0.3950
2025-08-16 11:00: 0.4100
2025-08-17 03:00: 0.5950
2025-08-17 19:00: 0.4100
2025-08-18 11:00: 0.5950
2025-08-19 03:00: 0.6000
2025-08-19 19:00: 0.4000
2025-08-20 11:00: 0.6000
Trade Summary: Total trades: 1000000, Buy volume: 236373556.70, Sell volume: 71849007.17, Average price: 0.5373, Price range: 0.0010 - 0.9990
Manipulation Indicators Detected: wash_trading

Output: No


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 518036
Question: US government shutdown in 2025?
Volume: 3512314.570564
Price History:
2025-08-21 11:00: 0.3750
2025-08-22 03:00: 0.6200
2025-08-22 19:00: 0.6200
2025-08-23 11:00: 0.6450
2025-08-24 03:00: 0.3500
2025-08-24 19:00: 0.3450
2025-08-25 11:00: 0.6550
2025-08-26 02:00: 0.3450
2025-08-26 18:00: 0.3350
2025-08-27 10:00: 0.3350
2025-08-28 02:00: 0.3350
2025-08-28 18:00: 0.3350
2025-08-29 10:00: 0.4200
2025-08-30 02:00: 0.5150
2025-08-30 18:00: 0.4550
2025-08-31 10:00: 0.4300
2025-09-01 02:00: 0.4600
2025-09-01 18:00: 0.5150
2025-09-02 10:00: 0.4750
2025-09-03 02:00: 0.5250
2025-09-03 18:00: 0.5050
2025-09-04 10:00: 0.5050
2025-09-05 02:00: 0.5100
2025-09-05 18:00: 0.5650
2025-09-06 10:00: 0.5550
2025-09-07 02:00: 0.4350
2025-09-07 18:00: 0.4950
2025-09-08 10:00: 0.5000
2025-09-09 02:00: 0.4600
2025-09-09 18:00: 0.5100
Trade Summary: Total trades: 1000000, Buy volume: 236373556.70, Sell volume: 71849007.17, Average price: 0.5373, Price range: 0.0010 - 0.9990
Manipulation Indicators Detected: wash_trading

Output: No


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 518036
Question: US government shutdown in 2025?
Volume: 3512314.570564
Price History:
2025-09-10 18:00: 0.5550
2025-09-11 10:00: 0.4400
2025-09-12 02:00: 0.5250
2025-09-12 18:00: 0.5200
2025-09-13 10:00: 0.4500
2025-09-14 02:00: 0.4650
2025-09-14 18:00: 0.4750
2025-09-15 10:00: 0.4750
2025-09-16 02:00: 0.4300
2025-09-16 18:00: 0.5700
2025-09-17 10:00: 0.4250
2025-09-18 02:00: 0.4350
2025-09-18 18:00: 0.4450
2025-09-19 10:00: 0.4550
2025-09-20 02:00: 0.6250
2025-09-20 18:00: 0.6300
2025-09-21 10:00: 0.3250
2025-09-22 02:00: 0.3150
2025-09-22 18:00: 0.6650
2025-09-23 10:00: 0.2850
2025-09-24 02:00: 0.2450
2025-09-24 18:00: 0.7400
2025-09-25 10:00: 0.2450
2025-09-26 02:00: 0.7600
2025-09-26 18:00: 0.8250
2025-09-27 10:00: 0.8250
2025-09-28 02:00: 0.7250
2025-09-28 18:00: 0.6600
2025-09-29 10:00: 0.2600
2025-09-30 02:00: 0.1550
Trade Summary: Total trades: 999978, Buy volume: 236362947.57, Sell volume: 71848205.61, Average price: 0.5373, Price range: 0.0010 - 0.9990
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike, wash_trading

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 512828
Question: Trump Admin recommends removing fluoride from water by April 29?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 448725.121098
Price History:
2024-11-12 20:00: 0.5400
2024-11-13 02:00: 0.3250
2024-11-13 08:00: 0.2750
2024-11-13 14:00: 0.2450
2024-11-13 20:00: 0.2300
2024-11-14 02:00: 0.2250
2024-11-14 08:00: 0.2350
2024-11-14 14:00: 0.2450
2024-11-14 20:00: 0.3950
2024-11-15 02:00: 0.4650
2024-11-15 08:00: 0.4450
2024-11-15 14:00: 0.4250
2024-11-15 20:00: 0.4300
2024-11-16 02:00: 0.3900
2024-11-16 08:00: 0.3700
2024-11-16 14:00: 0.3750
2024-11-16 20:00: 0.3750
2024-11-17 02:00: 0.3750
2024-11-17 08:00: 0.3750
2024-11-17 14:00: 0.3650
2024-11-17 20:00: 0.3750
2024-11-18 02:00: 0.3700
2024-11-18 08:00: 0.3650
2024-11-18 14:00: 0.4000
2024-11-18 20:00: 0.4250
2024-11-19 02:00: 0.4150
2024-11-19 08:00: 0.4150
2024-11-19 14:00: 0.4150
2024-11-19 20:00: 0.3900
2024-11-20 02:00: 0.3900
2024-11-20 08:00: 0.3900
2024-11-20 14:00: 0.3950
2024-11-20 20:00: 0.3850
2024-11-21 02:00: 0.4250
2024-11-21 08:00: 0.4350
2024-11-21 14:00: 0.4300
2024-11-21 20:00: 0.4300
2024-11-22 02:00: 0.4150
2024-11-22 08:00: 0.4150
2024-11-22 14:00: 0.4150
2024-11-22 20:00: 0.4150
2024-11-23 02:00: 0.4050
2024-11-23 08:00: 0.4050
2024-11-23 14:00: 0.4100
2024-11-23 20:00: 0.4100
2024-11-24 02:00: 0.3900
2024-11-24 08:00: 0.3900
2024-11-24 14:00: 0.3950
2024-11-24 20:00: 0.4100
2024-11-25 02:00: 0.4100
Trade Summary: No trades available

Output: Yes