Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 520728
Question: Will Ezra Cohen-Watnick be Trump’s Director of National Intelligence?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 255050.414711
Price History:
2025-02-03 10:00: 0.9855
2025-02-03 11:00: 0.0135
2025-02-03 11:00: 0.9865
2025-02-03 12:00: 0.0150
2025-02-03 12:00: 0.9850
2025-02-03 13:00: 0.0135
2025-02-03 13:00: 0.9865
2025-02-03 14:00: 0.0140
2025-02-03 14:00: 0.9860
2025-02-03 15:00: 0.0140
2025-02-03 15:00: 0.9860
2025-02-03 16:00: 0.0135
2025-02-03 16:00: 0.9865
2025-02-03 17:00: 0.0085
2025-02-03 17:00: 0.9915
2025-02-03 18:00: 0.0055
2025-02-03 18:00: 0.9945
2025-02-03 19:00: 0.0055
2025-02-03 19:00: 0.9945
2025-02-03 20:00: 0.0055
2025-02-03 20:00: 0.9945
2025-02-03 21:00: 0.0055
2025-02-03 21:00: 0.9945
2025-02-03 22:00: 0.0055
2025-02-03 22:00: 0.9945
2025-02-03 23:00: 0.0055
2025-02-03 23:00: 0.9945
2025-02-04 00:00: 0.0055
2025-02-04 00:00: 0.9945
2025-02-04 01:00: 0.0055
2025-02-04 01:00: 0.9945
2025-02-04 02:00: 0.0055
2025-02-04 02:00: 0.9945
2025-02-04 03:00: 0.0055
2025-02-04 03:00: 0.9945
2025-02-04 04:00: 0.0055
2025-02-04 04:00: 0.9945
2025-02-04 05:00: 0.0055
2025-02-04 05:00: 0.9945
2025-02-04 06:00: 0.0055
2025-02-04 06:00: 0.9945
2025-02-04 07:00: 0.0055
2025-02-04 07:00: 0.9945
2025-02-04 08:00: 0.0055
2025-02-04 08:00: 0.9945
2025-02-04 09:00: 0.0055
2025-02-04 09:00: 0.9945
2025-02-04 10:00: 0.0055
2025-02-04 10:00: 0.9945
2025-02-04 11:00: 0.0030
Trade Summary: No trades available

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 520728
Question: Will Ezra Cohen-Watnick be Trump’s Director of National Intelligence?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 255050.414711
Price History:
2025-02-04 14:00: 0.0030
2025-02-04 14:00: 0.9970
2025-02-04 15:00: 0.0025
2025-02-04 15:00: 0.9975
2025-02-04 16:00: 0.0025
2025-02-04 16:00: 0.9975
2025-02-04 17:00: 0.0025
2025-02-04 17:00: 0.9975
2025-02-04 18:00: 0.0025
2025-02-04 18:00: 0.9975
2025-02-04 19:00: 0.0025
2025-02-04 19:00: 0.9975
2025-02-04 20:00: 0.0025
2025-02-04 20:00: 0.9975
2025-02-04 21:00: 0.0025
2025-02-04 21:00: 0.9975
2025-02-04 22:00: 0.0025
2025-02-04 22:00: 0.9975
2025-02-04 23:00: 0.0025
2025-02-04 23:00: 0.9975
2025-02-05 00:00: 0.0025
2025-02-05 00:00: 0.9975
2025-02-05 01:00: 0.0025
2025-02-05 01:00: 0.9975
2025-02-05 02:00: 0.0025
2025-02-05 02:00: 0.9975
2025-02-05 03:00: 0.0020
2025-02-05 03:00: 0.9980
2025-02-05 04:00: 0.0020
2025-02-05 04:00: 0.9980
2025-02-05 05:00: 0.0020
2025-02-05 05:00: 0.9980
2025-02-05 06:00: 0.0020
2025-02-05 06:00: 0.9980
2025-02-05 07:00: 0.0015
2025-02-05 07:00: 0.9985
2025-02-05 08:00: 0.0015
2025-02-05 08:00: 0.9985
2025-02-05 09:00: 0.0015
2025-02-05 09:00: 0.9985
2025-02-05 10:00: 0.0015
2025-02-05 10:00: 0.9985
2025-02-05 11:00: 0.0015
2025-02-05 11:00: 0.9985
2025-02-05 12:00: 0.0015
2025-02-05 12:00: 0.9985
2025-02-05 13:00: 0.0015
2025-02-05 13:00: 0.9985
2025-02-05 14:00: 0.0015
2025-02-05 14:00: 0.9985
Trade Summary: No trades available

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 520728
Question: Will Ezra Cohen-Watnick be Trump’s Director of National Intelligence?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 255050.414711
Price History:
2025-02-05 17:00: 0.9985
2025-02-05 18:00: 0.0015
2025-02-05 18:00: 0.9985
2025-02-05 19:00: 0.0015
2025-02-05 19:00: 0.9985
2025-02-05 20:00: 0.0015
2025-02-05 20:00: 0.9985
2025-02-05 21:00: 0.0015
2025-02-05 21:00: 0.9985
2025-02-05 22:00: 0.0015
2025-02-05 22:00: 0.9985
2025-02-05 23:00: 0.0015
2025-02-05 23:00: 0.9985
2025-02-06 00:00: 0.0015
2025-02-06 00:00: 0.9985
2025-02-06 01:00: 0.0015
2025-02-06 01:00: 0.9985
2025-02-06 02:00: 0.0015
2025-02-06 02:00: 0.9985
2025-02-06 03:00: 0.0015
2025-02-06 03:00: 0.9985
2025-02-06 04:00: 0.0015
2025-02-06 04:00: 0.9985
2025-02-06 05:00: 0.0015
2025-02-06 05:00: 0.9985
2025-02-06 06:00: 0.0015
2025-02-06 06:00: 0.9985
2025-02-06 07:00: 0.0015
2025-02-06 07:00: 0.9985
2025-02-06 08:00: 0.0015
2025-02-06 08:00: 0.9985
2025-02-06 09:00: 0.0015
2025-02-06 09:00: 0.9985
2025-02-06 10:00: 0.0015
2025-02-06 10:00: 0.9985
2025-02-06 11:00: 0.0015
2025-02-06 11:00: 0.9985
2025-02-06 12:00: 0.0015
2025-02-06 12:00: 0.9985
2025-02-06 13:00: 0.0015
2025-02-06 13:00: 0.9985
2025-02-06 14:00: 0.0015
2025-02-06 14:00: 0.9985
2025-02-06 15:00: 0.0015
2025-02-06 15:00: 0.9985
2025-02-06 16:00: 0.0015
2025-02-06 16:00: 0.9985
2025-02-06 17:00: 0.0015
2025-02-06 17:00: 0.9985
2025-02-06 18:00: 0.0015
Trade Summary: No trades available

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 520728
Question: Will Ezra Cohen-Watnick be Trump’s Director of National Intelligence?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 255050.414711
Price History:
2025-02-06 21:00: 0.0015
2025-02-06 21:00: 0.9985
2025-02-06 22:00: 0.0015
2025-02-06 22:00: 0.9985
2025-02-06 23:00: 0.0015
2025-02-06 23:00: 0.9985
2025-02-07 00:00: 0.0015
2025-02-07 00:00: 0.9985
2025-02-07 01:00: 0.0015
2025-02-07 01:00: 0.9985
2025-02-07 02:00: 0.0015
2025-02-07 02:00: 0.9985
2025-02-07 03:00: 0.0015
2025-02-07 03:00: 0.9985
2025-02-07 04:00: 0.0015
2025-02-07 04:00: 0.9985
2025-02-07 05:00: 0.0015
2025-02-07 05:00: 0.9985
2025-02-07 06:00: 0.0015
2025-02-07 06:00: 0.9985
2025-02-07 07:00: 0.0015
2025-02-07 07:00: 0.9985
2025-02-07 08:00: 0.0015
2025-02-07 08:00: 0.9985
2025-02-07 09:00: 0.0015
2025-02-07 09:00: 0.9985
2025-02-07 10:00: 0.0025
2025-02-07 10:00: 0.9975
2025-02-07 11:00: 0.0025
2025-02-07 11:00: 0.9975
2025-02-07 12:00: 0.0025
2025-02-07 12:00: 0.9975
2025-02-07 13:00: 0.0025
2025-02-07 13:00: 0.9975
2025-02-07 14:00: 0.0025
2025-02-07 14:00: 0.9975
2025-02-07 15:00: 0.0025
2025-02-07 15:00: 0.9975
2025-02-07 16:00: 0.0025
2025-02-07 16:00: 0.9975
2025-02-07 17:00: 0.0025
2025-02-07 17:00: 0.9975
2025-02-07 18:00: 0.0025
2025-02-07 18:00: 0.9975
2025-02-07 19:00: 0.0025
2025-02-07 19:00: 0.9975
2025-02-07 20:00: 0.0025
2025-02-07 20:00: 0.9975
2025-02-07 21:00: 0.0025
2025-02-07 21:00: 0.9975
Trade Summary: No trades available

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 520728
Question: Will Ezra Cohen-Watnick be Trump’s Director of National Intelligence?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 255050.414711
Price History:
2025-02-08 00:00: 0.9975
2025-02-08 01:00: 0.0025
2025-02-08 01:00: 0.9975
2025-02-08 02:00: 0.0025
2025-02-08 02:00: 0.9975
2025-02-08 03:00: 0.0025
2025-02-08 03:00: 0.9975
2025-02-08 04:00: 0.0025
2025-02-08 04:00: 0.9975
2025-02-08 05:00: 0.0025
2025-02-08 05:00: 0.9975
2025-02-08 06:00: 0.0025
2025-02-08 06:00: 0.9975
2025-02-08 07:00: 0.0025
2025-02-08 07:00: 0.9975
2025-02-08 08:00: 0.0025
2025-02-08 08:00: 0.9975
2025-02-08 09:00: 0.0025
2025-02-08 09:00: 0.9975
2025-02-08 10:00: 0.0025
2025-02-08 10:00: 0.9975
2025-02-08 11:00: 0.0025
2025-02-08 11:00: 0.9975
2025-02-08 12:00: 0.0025
2025-02-08 12:00: 0.9975
2025-02-08 13:00: 0.0025
2025-02-08 13:00: 0.9975
2025-02-08 14:00: 0.0025
2025-02-08 14:00: 0.9975
2025-02-08 15:00: 0.0025
2025-02-08 15:00: 0.9975
2025-02-08 16:00: 0.0025
2025-02-08 16:00: 0.9975
2025-02-08 17:00: 0.0025
2025-02-08 17:00: 0.9975
2025-02-08 18:00: 0.0025
2025-02-08 18:00: 0.9975
2025-02-08 19:00: 0.0025
2025-02-08 19:00: 0.9975
2025-02-08 20:00: 0.0025
2025-02-08 20:00: 0.9975
2025-02-08 21:00: 0.0025
2025-02-08 21:00: 0.9975
2025-02-08 22:00: 0.0025
2025-02-08 22:00: 0.9975
2025-02-08 23:00: 0.0025
2025-02-08 23:00: 0.9975
2025-02-09 00:00: 0.0025
2025-02-09 00:00: 0.9975
2025-02-09 01:00: 0.0025
Trade Summary: No trades available

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 520728
Question: Will Ezra Cohen-Watnick be Trump’s Director of National Intelligence?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 255050.414711
Price History:
2025-02-09 04:00: 0.0025
2025-02-09 04:00: 0.9975
2025-02-09 05:00: 0.0025
2025-02-09 05:00: 0.9975
2025-02-09 06:00: 0.0025
2025-02-09 06:00: 0.9975
2025-02-09 07:00: 0.0025
2025-02-09 07:00: 0.9975
2025-02-09 08:00: 0.0025
2025-02-09 08:00: 0.9975
2025-02-09 09:00: 0.0025
2025-02-09 09:00: 0.9975
2025-02-09 10:00: 0.0025
2025-02-09 10:00: 0.9975
2025-02-09 11:00: 0.0025
2025-02-09 11:00: 0.9975
2025-02-09 12:00: 0.0025
2025-02-09 12:00: 0.9975
2025-02-09 13:00: 0.0025
2025-02-09 13:00: 0.9975
2025-02-09 14:00: 0.0025
2025-02-09 14:00: 0.9975
2025-02-09 15:00: 0.0025
2025-02-09 15:00: 0.9975
2025-02-09 16:00: 0.0025
2025-02-09 16:00: 0.9975
2025-02-09 17:00: 0.0025
2025-02-09 17:00: 0.9975
2025-02-09 18:00: 0.0025
2025-02-09 18:00: 0.9975
2025-02-09 19:00: 0.0025
2025-02-09 19:00: 0.9975
2025-02-09 20:00: 0.0025
2025-02-09 20:00: 0.9975
2025-02-09 21:00: 0.0025
2025-02-09 21:00: 0.9975
2025-02-09 22:00: 0.0025
2025-02-09 22:00: 0.9975
2025-02-09 23:00: 0.0025
2025-02-09 23:00: 0.9975
2025-02-10 00:00: 0.0025
2025-02-10 00:00: 0.9975
2025-02-10 01:00: 0.0025
2025-02-10 01:00: 0.9975
2025-02-10 02:00: 0.0025
2025-02-10 02:00: 0.9975
2025-02-10 03:00: 0.0025
2025-02-10 03:00: 0.9975
2025-02-10 04:00: 0.0025
2025-02-10 04:00: 0.9975
Trade Summary: No trades available

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 520728
Question: Will Ezra Cohen-Watnick be Trump’s Director of National Intelligence?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 255050.414711
Price History:
2025-02-10 07:00: 0.9975
2025-02-10 08:00: 0.0025
2025-02-10 08:00: 0.9975
2025-02-10 09:00: 0.0025
2025-02-10 09:00: 0.9975
2025-02-10 10:00: 0.0030
2025-02-10 10:00: 0.9970
2025-02-10 11:00: 0.0030
2025-02-10 11:00: 0.9970
2025-02-10 12:00: 0.0030
2025-02-10 12:00: 0.9970
2025-02-10 13:00: 0.0030
2025-02-10 13:00: 0.9970
2025-02-10 14:00: 0.0030
2025-02-10 14:00: 0.9970
2025-02-10 15:00: 0.0030
2025-02-10 15:00: 0.9970
2025-02-10 16:00: 0.0025
2025-02-10 16:00: 0.9975
2025-02-10 17:00: 0.0025
2025-02-10 17:00: 0.9975
2025-02-10 18:00: 0.0025
2025-02-10 18:00: 0.9975
2025-02-10 19:00: 0.0020
2025-02-10 19:00: 0.9980
2025-02-10 20:00: 0.0005
2025-02-10 20:00: 0.9995
2025-02-10 21:00: 0.0020
2025-02-10 21:00: 0.9980
2025-02-10 22:00: 0.0020
2025-02-10 22:00: 0.9980
2025-02-10 23:00: 0.0020
2025-02-10 23:00: 0.9980
2025-02-11 00:00: 0.0020
2025-02-11 00:00: 0.9980
2025-02-11 01:00: 0.0020
2025-02-11 01:00: 0.9980
2025-02-11 02:00: 0.0020
2025-02-11 02:00: 0.9980
2025-02-11 03:00: 0.0020
2025-02-11 03:00: 0.9980
2025-02-11 04:00: 0.0020
2025-02-11 04:00: 0.9980
2025-02-11 05:00: 0.0020
2025-02-11 05:00: 0.9980
2025-02-11 06:00: 0.0020
2025-02-11 06:00: 0.9980
2025-02-11 07:00: 0.0020
2025-02-11 07:00: 0.9980
2025-02-11 08:00: 0.0020
Trade Summary: No trades available

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 520728
Question: Will Ezra Cohen-Watnick be Trump’s Director of National Intelligence?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 255050.414711
Price History:
2025-02-11 11:00: 0.0020
2025-02-11 11:00: 0.9980
2025-02-11 12:00: 0.0020
2025-02-11 12:00: 0.9980
2025-02-11 13:00: 0.0020
2025-02-11 13:00: 0.9980
2025-02-11 14:00: 0.0020
2025-02-11 14:00: 0.9980
2025-02-11 15:00: 0.0020
2025-02-11 15:00: 0.9980
2025-02-11 16:00: 0.0020
2025-02-11 16:00: 0.9980
2025-02-11 17:00: 0.0020
2025-02-11 17:00: 0.9980
2025-02-11 18:00: 0.0020
2025-02-11 18:00: 0.9980
2025-02-11 19:00: 0.0020
2025-02-11 19:00: 0.9980
2025-02-11 20:00: 0.0020
2025-02-11 20:00: 0.9980
2025-02-11 21:00: 0.0020
2025-02-11 21:00: 0.9980
2025-02-11 22:00: 0.0020
2025-02-11 22:00: 0.9980
2025-02-11 23:00: 0.0015
2025-02-11 23:00: 0.9985
2025-02-12 00:00: 0.0010
2025-02-12 00:00: 0.9990
2025-02-12 01:00: 0.0010
2025-02-12 01:00: 0.9990
2025-02-12 02:00: 0.0010
2025-02-12 02:00: 0.9990
2025-02-12 03:00: 0.0010
2025-02-12 03:00: 0.9990
2025-02-12 04:00: 0.0010
2025-02-12 04:00: 0.9990
2025-02-12 05:00: 0.0005
2025-02-12 05:00: 0.9995
2025-02-12 06:00: 0.0005
2025-02-12 06:00: 0.9995
2025-02-12 07:00: 0.0005
2025-02-12 07:00: 0.9995
2025-02-12 08:00: 0.0005
2025-02-12 08:00: 0.9995
2025-02-12 09:00: 0.0005
2025-02-12 09:00: 0.9995
2025-02-12 10:00: 0.0005
2025-02-12 10:00: 0.9995
2025-02-12 11:00: 0.0005
2025-02-12 11:00: 0.9995
Trade Summary: No trades available

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 623549
Question: Will Yaël Braun-Pivet be the next Prime Minister of France?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 25606.559903
Price History:
2025-10-06 14:00: 0.5100
2025-10-06 14:00: 0.4900
2025-10-06 15:00: 0.5200
2025-10-06 15:00: 0.4800
2025-10-06 16:00: 0.0500
2025-10-06 16:00: 0.9500
2025-10-06 17:00: 0.0500
2025-10-06 17:00: 0.9500
2025-10-06 18:00: 0.9500
2025-10-06 18:00: 0.0500
2025-10-06 19:00: 0.0500
2025-10-06 19:00: 0.9500
2025-10-06 20:00: 0.9500
2025-10-06 20:00: 0.0500
2025-10-06 21:00: 0.0500
Trade Summary: Total trades: 23, Buy volume: 165.00, Sell volume: 0.00, Average price: 0.9791, Price range: 0.9700 - 0.9800

Output: No


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 623549
Question: Will Yaël Braun-Pivet be the next Prime Minister of France?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 25606.559903
Price History:
2025-10-06 21:00: 0.9500
2025-10-06 22:00: 0.0500
2025-10-06 22:00: 0.9500
2025-10-06 23:00: 0.9500
2025-10-06 23:00: 0.0500
2025-10-07 00:00: 0.0500
2025-10-07 00:00: 0.9500
2025-10-07 01:00: 0.9500
2025-10-07 01:00: 0.0500
2025-10-07 02:00: 0.0450
2025-10-07 02:00: 0.9550
2025-10-07 03:00: 0.0400
2025-10-07 03:00: 0.9600
2025-10-07 04:00: 0.9650
2025-10-07 04:00: 0.0350
Trade Summary: Total trades: 6, Buy volume: 46.62, Sell volume: 0.00, Average price: 0.9800, Price range: 0.9800 - 0.9800

Output: No


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 623549
Question: Will Yaël Braun-Pivet be the next Prime Minister of France?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 25606.559903
Price History:
2025-10-07 05:00: 0.0300
2025-10-07 05:00: 0.9700
2025-10-07 06:00: 0.0250
2025-10-07 06:00: 0.9750
2025-10-07 07:00: 0.9750
2025-10-07 07:00: 0.0250
2025-10-07 08:00: 0.9765
2025-10-07 08:00: 0.0235
2025-10-07 09:00: 0.0490
2025-10-07 09:00: 0.9510
2025-10-07 10:00: 0.0520
2025-10-07 10:00: 0.9480
2025-10-07 11:00: 0.0555
2025-10-07 11:00: 0.9445
2025-10-07 12:00: 0.9680
Trade Summary: Total trades: 28, Buy volume: 457.66, Sell volume: 67.61, Average price: 0.7059, Price range: 0.0100 - 0.9900

Output: No


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 623549
Question: Will Yaël Braun-Pivet be the next Prime Minister of France?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 25606.559903
Price History:
2025-10-07 12:00: 0.0320
2025-10-07 13:00: 0.0100
2025-10-07 13:00: 0.9900
2025-10-07 14:00: 0.0100
2025-10-07 14:00: 0.9900
2025-10-07 15:00: 0.0080
2025-10-07 15:00: 0.9920
2025-10-07 16:00: 0.0080
2025-10-07 16:00: 0.9920
2025-10-07 17:00: 0.0105
2025-10-07 17:00: 0.9895
2025-10-07 18:00: 0.9900
2025-10-07 18:00: 0.0100
2025-10-07 19:00: 0.0100
2025-10-07 19:00: 0.9900
Trade Summary: Total trades: 28, Buy volume: 667.62, Sell volume: 88.91, Average price: 0.6074, Price range: 0.0020 - 0.9980

Output: No


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 623549
Question: Will Yaël Braun-Pivet be the next Prime Minister of France?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 25606.559903
Price History:
2025-10-07 20:00: 0.0100
2025-10-07 20:00: 0.9900
2025-10-07 21:00: 0.0100
2025-10-07 21:00: 0.9900
2025-10-07 22:00: 0.0100
2025-10-07 22:00: 0.9900
2025-10-07 23:00: 0.0100
2025-10-07 23:00: 0.9900
2025-10-08 00:00: 0.0090
2025-10-08 00:00: 0.9910
2025-10-08 01:00: 0.0090
2025-10-08 01:00: 0.9910
2025-10-08 02:00: 0.0085
2025-10-08 02:00: 0.9915
2025-10-08 03:00: 0.0085
Trade Summary: Total trades: 317, Buy volume: 13786.52, Sell volume: 11820.04, Average price: 0.6593, Price range: 0.0010 - 0.9990

Output: No


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 623549
Question: Will Yaël Braun-Pivet be the next Prime Minister of France?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 25606.559903
Price History:
2025-10-08 03:00: 0.9915
2025-10-08 04:00: 0.9910
2025-10-08 04:00: 0.0090
2025-10-08 05:00: 0.9915
2025-10-08 05:00: 0.0085
2025-10-08 06:00: 0.0090
2025-10-08 06:00: 0.9910
2025-10-08 07:00: 0.0090
2025-10-08 07:00: 0.9910
2025-10-08 08:00: 0.0090
2025-10-08 08:00: 0.9910
2025-10-08 09:00: 0.0090
2025-10-08 09:00: 0.9910
2025-10-08 10:00: 0.9910
2025-10-08 10:00: 0.0090
Trade Summary: Total trades: 7, Buy volume: 45.78, Sell volume: 17.79, Average price: 0.5711, Price range: 0.0020 - 0.9980

Output: No


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 623549
Question: Will Yaël Braun-Pivet be the next Prime Minister of France?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 25606.559903
Price History:
2025-10-08 11:00: 0.9900
2025-10-08 11:00: 0.0100
2025-10-08 12:00: 0.9900
2025-10-08 12:00: 0.0100
2025-10-08 13:00: 0.0105
2025-10-08 13:00: 0.9895
2025-10-08 14:00: 0.9900
2025-10-08 14:00: 0.0100
2025-10-08 15:00: 0.8705
2025-10-08 15:00: 0.1295
2025-10-08 16:00: 0.8680
2025-10-08 16:00: 0.1320
2025-10-08 17:00: 0.8795
2025-10-08 17:00: 0.1205
2025-10-08 18:00: 0.9100
Trade Summary: Total trades: 22, Buy volume: 908.51, Sell volume: 361.64, Average price: 0.3612, Price range: 0.0140 - 0.9780

Output: No


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 623549
Question: Will Yaël Braun-Pivet be the next Prime Minister of France?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 25606.559903
Price History:
2025-10-08 18:00: 0.0900
2025-10-08 19:00: 0.9335
2025-10-08 19:00: 0.0665
2025-10-08 20:00: 0.0655
2025-10-08 20:00: 0.9345
2025-10-08 21:00: 0.9345
2025-10-08 21:00: 0.0655
2025-10-08 22:00: 0.9350
2025-10-08 22:00: 0.0650
2025-10-08 23:00: 0.9610
2025-10-08 23:00: 0.0390
2025-10-09 00:00: 0.9735
2025-10-09 00:00: 0.0265
2025-10-09 01:00: 0.9740
2025-10-09 01:00: 0.0260
Trade Summary: Total trades: 24, Buy volume: 277.49, Sell volume: 153.22, Average price: 0.7053, Price range: 0.0090 - 0.9920

Output: No


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 623549
Question: Will Yaël Braun-Pivet be the next Prime Minister of France?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 25606.559903
Price History:
2025-10-09 02:00: 0.9760
2025-10-09 02:00: 0.0240
2025-10-09 03:00: 0.0245
2025-10-09 03:00: 0.9755
2025-10-09 04:00: 0.9770
2025-10-09 04:00: 0.0230
2025-10-09 05:00: 0.0220
2025-10-09 05:00: 0.9780
2025-10-09 06:00: 0.0230
2025-10-09 06:00: 0.9770
2025-10-09 07:00: 0.0205
2025-10-09 07:00: 0.9795
2025-10-09 08:00: 0.0145
2025-10-09 08:00: 0.9855
2025-10-09 09:00: 0.0170
Trade Summary: Total trades: 17, Buy volume: 369.34, Sell volume: 59.48, Average price: 0.7596, Price range: 0.0090 - 0.9910

Output: No


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 623549
Question: Will Yaël Braun-Pivet be the next Prime Minister of France?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 25606.559903
Price History:
2025-10-09 09:00: 0.9830
2025-10-09 10:00: 0.0165
2025-10-09 10:00: 0.9835
2025-10-09 11:00: 0.9825
2025-10-09 11:00: 0.0175
2025-10-09 12:00: 0.9825
2025-10-09 12:00: 0.0175
2025-10-09 13:00: 0.0165
2025-10-09 13:00: 0.9835
2025-10-09 14:00: 0.0135
2025-10-09 14:00: 0.9865
2025-10-09 15:00: 0.0135
2025-10-09 15:00: 0.9865
2025-10-09 16:00: 0.0265
2025-10-09 16:00: 0.9735
Trade Summary: Total trades: 23, Buy volume: 563.76, Sell volume: 51.24, Average price: 0.7362, Price range: 0.0100 - 0.9910

Output: No


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 623549
Question: Will Yaël Braun-Pivet be the next Prime Minister of France?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 25606.559903
Price History:
2025-10-09 17:00: 0.9755
2025-10-09 17:00: 0.0245
2025-10-09 18:00: 0.0225
2025-10-09 18:00: 0.9775
2025-10-09 19:00: 0.0190
2025-10-09 19:00: 0.9810
2025-10-09 20:00: 0.0225
2025-10-09 20:00: 0.9775
2025-10-09 21:00: 0.9790
2025-10-09 21:00: 0.0210
2025-10-09 22:00: 0.0195
2025-10-09 22:00: 0.9805
2025-10-09 23:00: 0.0195
2025-10-09 23:00: 0.9805
2025-10-10 00:00: 0.9810
Trade Summary: Total trades: 6, Buy volume: 58.46, Sell volume: 56.07, Average price: 0.1786, Price range: 0.0150 - 0.9850

Output: No


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 623549
Question: Will Yaël Braun-Pivet be the next Prime Minister of France?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 25606.559903
Price History:
2025-10-10 00:00: 0.0190
2025-10-10 01:00: 0.0200
2025-10-10 01:00: 0.9800
2025-10-10 02:00: 0.9795
2025-10-10 02:00: 0.0205
2025-10-10 03:00: 0.0190
2025-10-10 03:00: 0.9810
2025-10-10 04:00: 0.0165
2025-10-10 04:00: 0.9835
2025-10-10 05:00: 0.0160
2025-10-10 05:00: 0.9840
2025-10-10 06:00: 0.0235
2025-10-10 06:00: 0.9765
2025-10-10 07:00: 0.9820
2025-10-10 07:00: 0.0180
Trade Summary: Total trades: 27, Buy volume: 341.87, Sell volume: 174.42, Average price: 0.8077, Price range: 0.0130 - 0.9910

Output: No


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 623549
Question: Will Yaël Braun-Pivet be the next Prime Minister of France?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 25606.559903
Price History:
2025-10-10 08:00: 0.0200
2025-10-10 08:00: 0.9800
2025-10-10 09:00: 0.9830
2025-10-10 09:00: 0.0170
2025-10-10 10:00: 0.0135
2025-10-10 10:00: 0.9865
2025-10-10 11:00: 0.0125
2025-10-10 11:00: 0.9875
2025-10-10 12:00: 0.9720
2025-10-10 12:00: 0.0280
2025-10-10 13:00: 0.9805
2025-10-10 13:00: 0.0195
2025-10-10 14:00: 0.2325
2025-10-10 14:00: 0.7670
2025-10-10 15:00: 0.0850
Trade Summary: Total trades: 62, Buy volume: 2046.32, Sell volume: 279.52, Average price: 0.6319, Price range: 0.0090 - 0.9910

Output: No


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 520728
Question: Will Ezra Cohen-Watnick be Trump’s Director of National Intelligence?
Volume: 255050.414711
Price History:
2025-01-28 17:00: 0.5000
2025-01-28 17:00: 0.5000
2025-01-28 18:00: 0.1750
2025-01-28 18:00: 0.8250
2025-01-28 19:00: 0.0255
2025-01-28 19:00: 0.9745
2025-01-28 20:00: 0.0255
2025-01-28 20:00: 0.9745
2025-01-28 21:00: 0.0255
2025-01-28 21:00: 0.9745
2025-01-28 22:00: 0.0250
2025-01-28 22:00: 0.9750
2025-01-28 23:00: 0.0250
2025-01-28 23:00: 0.9750
2025-01-29 00:00: 0.0250
2025-01-29 00:00: 0.9750
2025-01-29 01:00: 0.0250
2025-01-29 01:00: 0.9750
2025-01-29 02:00: 0.0250
2025-01-29 02:00: 0.9750
2025-01-29 03:00: 0.0250
2025-01-29 03:00: 0.9750
2025-01-29 04:00: 0.0245
2025-01-29 04:00: 0.9755
2025-01-29 05:00: 0.0245
2025-01-29 05:00: 0.9755
2025-01-29 06:00: 0.0245
2025-01-29 06:00: 0.9755
2025-01-29 07:00: 0.0245
2025-01-29 07:00: 0.9755
Trade Summary: No trades available
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 520728
Question: Will Ezra Cohen-Watnick be Trump’s Director of National Intelligence?
Volume: 255050.414711
Price History:
2025-01-29 20:00: 0.9725
2025-01-29 21:00: 0.0275
2025-01-29 21:00: 0.9725
2025-01-29 22:00: 0.0275
2025-01-29 22:00: 0.9725
2025-01-29 23:00: 0.0275
2025-01-29 23:00: 0.9725
2025-01-30 00:00: 0.0275
2025-01-30 00:00: 0.9725
2025-01-30 01:00: 0.0275
2025-01-30 01:00: 0.9725
2025-01-30 02:00: 0.0275
2025-01-30 02:00: 0.9725
2025-01-30 03:00: 0.0275
2025-01-30 03:00: 0.9725
2025-01-30 04:00: 0.0275
2025-01-30 04:00: 0.9725
2025-01-30 05:00: 0.0275
2025-01-30 05:00: 0.9725
2025-01-30 06:00: 0.0275
2025-01-30 06:00: 0.9725
2025-01-30 07:00: 0.0275
2025-01-30 07:00: 0.9725
2025-01-30 08:00: 0.0275
2025-01-30 08:00: 0.9725
2025-01-30 09:00: 0.0275
2025-01-30 09:00: 0.9725
2025-01-30 10:00: 0.0275
2025-01-30 10:00: 0.9725
2025-01-30 11:00: 0.0275
Trade Summary: No trades available
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 520728
Question: Will Ezra Cohen-Watnick be Trump’s Director of National Intelligence?
Volume: 255050.414711
Price History:
2025-01-31 00:00: 0.0340
2025-01-31 00:00: 0.9660
2025-01-31 01:00: 0.0340
2025-01-31 01:00: 0.9660
2025-01-31 02:00: 0.0275
2025-01-31 02:00: 0.9725
2025-01-31 03:00: 0.0290
2025-01-31 03:00: 0.9710
2025-01-31 04:00: 0.0315
2025-01-31 04:00: 0.9685
2025-01-31 05:00: 0.0275
2025-01-31 05:00: 0.9725
2025-01-31 06:00: 0.0285
2025-01-31 06:00: 0.9715
2025-01-31 07:00: 0.0305
2025-01-31 07:00: 0.9695
2025-01-31 08:00: 0.0300
2025-01-31 08:00: 0.9700
2025-01-31 09:00: 0.0315
2025-01-31 09:00: 0.9685
2025-01-31 10:00: 0.0295
2025-01-31 10:00: 0.9705
2025-01-31 11:00: 0.0295
2025-01-31 11:00: 0.9705
2025-01-31 12:00: 0.0305
2025-01-31 12:00: 0.9695
2025-01-31 13:00: 0.0305
2025-01-31 13:00: 0.9695
2025-01-31 14:00: 0.0305
2025-01-31 14:00: 0.9695
Trade Summary: No trades available
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 520728
Question: Will Ezra Cohen-Watnick be Trump’s Director of National Intelligence?
Volume: 255050.414711
Price History:
2025-02-01 03:00: 0.9850
2025-02-01 04:00: 0.0155
2025-02-01 04:00: 0.9845
2025-02-01 05:00: 0.0140
2025-02-01 05:00: 0.9860
2025-02-01 06:00: 0.0120
2025-02-01 06:00: 0.9880
2025-02-01 07:00: 0.0125
2025-02-01 07:00: 0.9875
2025-02-01 08:00: 0.0105
2025-02-01 08:00: 0.9895
2025-02-01 09:00: 0.0105
2025-02-01 09:00: 0.9895
2025-02-01 10:00: 0.0105
2025-02-01 10:00: 0.9895
2025-02-01 11:00: 0.0105
2025-02-01 11:00: 0.9895
2025-02-01 12:00: 0.0100
2025-02-01 12:00: 0.9900
2025-02-01 13:00: 0.0095
2025-02-01 13:00: 0.9905
2025-02-01 14:00: 0.0095
2025-02-01 14:00: 0.9905
2025-02-01 15:00: 0.0095
2025-02-01 15:00: 0.9905
2025-02-01 16:00: 0.0095
2025-02-01 16:00: 0.9905
2025-02-01 17:00: 0.0095
2025-02-01 17:00: 0.9905
2025-02-01 18:00: 0.0095
Trade Summary: No trades available
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 520728
Question: Will Ezra Cohen-Watnick be Trump’s Director of National Intelligence?
Volume: 255050.414711
Price History:
2025-02-02 07:00: 0.0095
2025-02-02 07:00: 0.9905
2025-02-02 08:00: 0.0090
2025-02-02 08:00: 0.9910
2025-02-02 09:00: 0.0095
2025-02-02 09:00: 0.9905
2025-02-02 10:00: 0.0095
2025-02-02 10:00: 0.9905
2025-02-02 11:00: 0.0060
2025-02-02 11:00: 0.9940
2025-02-02 12:00: 0.0065
2025-02-02 12:00: 0.9935
2025-02-02 13:00: 0.0070
2025-02-02 13:00: 0.9930
2025-02-02 14:00: 0.0065
2025-02-02 14:00: 0.9935
2025-02-02 15:00: 0.0070
2025-02-02 15:00: 0.9930
2025-02-02 16:00: 0.0120
2025-02-02 16:00: 0.9880
2025-02-02 17:00: 0.0120
2025-02-02 17:00: 0.9880
2025-02-02 18:00: 0.0120
2025-02-02 18:00: 0.9880
2025-02-02 19:00: 0.0120
2025-02-02 19:00: 0.9880
2025-02-02 20:00: 0.0120
2025-02-02 20:00: 0.9880
2025-02-02 21:00: 0.0120
2025-02-02 21:00: 0.9880
Trade Summary: No trades available
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 520728
Question: Will Ezra Cohen-Watnick be Trump’s Director of National Intelligence?
Volume: 255050.414711
Price History:
2025-02-03 10:00: 0.9855
2025-02-03 11:00: 0.0135
2025-02-03 11:00: 0.9865
2025-02-03 12:00: 0.0150
2025-02-03 12:00: 0.9850
2025-02-03 13:00: 0.0135
2025-02-03 13:00: 0.9865
2025-02-03 14:00: 0.0140
2025-02-03 14:00: 0.9860
2025-02-03 15:00: 0.0140
2025-02-03 15:00: 0.9860
2025-02-03 16:00: 0.0135
2025-02-03 16:00: 0.9865
2025-02-03 17:00: 0.0085
2025-02-03 17:00: 0.9915
2025-02-03 18:00: 0.0055
2025-02-03 18:00: 0.9945
2025-02-03 19:00: 0.0055
2025-02-03 19:00: 0.9945
2025-02-03 20:00: 0.0055
2025-02-03 20:00: 0.9945
2025-02-03 21:00: 0.0055
2025-02-03 21:00: 0.9945
2025-02-03 22:00: 0.0055
2025-02-03 22:00: 0.9945
2025-02-03 23:00: 0.0055
2025-02-03 23:00: 0.9945
2025-02-04 00:00: 0.0055
2025-02-04 00:00: 0.9945
2025-02-04 01:00: 0.0055
Trade Summary: No trades available
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 520728
Question: Will Ezra Cohen-Watnick be Trump’s Director of National Intelligence?
Volume: 255050.414711
Price History:
2025-02-04 14:00: 0.0030
2025-02-04 14:00: 0.9970
2025-02-04 15:00: 0.0025
2025-02-04 15:00: 0.9975
2025-02-04 16:00: 0.0025
2025-02-04 16:00: 0.9975
2025-02-04 17:00: 0.0025
2025-02-04 17:00: 0.9975
2025-02-04 18:00: 0.0025
2025-02-04 18:00: 0.9975
2025-02-04 19:00: 0.0025
2025-02-04 19:00: 0.9975
2025-02-04 20:00: 0.0025
2025-02-04 20:00: 0.9975
2025-02-04 21:00: 0.0025
2025-02-04 21:00: 0.9975
2025-02-04 22:00: 0.0025
2025-02-04 22:00: 0.9975
2025-02-04 23:00: 0.0025
2025-02-04 23:00: 0.9975
2025-02-05 00:00: 0.0025
2025-02-05 00:00: 0.9975
2025-02-05 01:00: 0.0025
2025-02-05 01:00: 0.9975
2025-02-05 02:00: 0.0025
2025-02-05 02:00: 0.9975
2025-02-05 03:00: 0.0020
2025-02-05 03:00: 0.9980
2025-02-05 04:00: 0.0020
2025-02-05 04:00: 0.9980
Trade Summary: No trades available
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 520728
Question: Will Ezra Cohen-Watnick be Trump’s Director of National Intelligence?
Volume: 255050.414711
Price History:
2025-02-05 17:00: 0.9985
2025-02-05 18:00: 0.0015
2025-02-05 18:00: 0.9985
2025-02-05 19:00: 0.0015
2025-02-05 19:00: 0.9985
2025-02-05 20:00: 0.0015
2025-02-05 20:00: 0.9985
2025-02-05 21:00: 0.0015
2025-02-05 21:00: 0.9985
2025-02-05 22:00: 0.0015
2025-02-05 22:00: 0.9985
2025-02-05 23:00: 0.0015
2025-02-05 23:00: 0.9985
2025-02-06 00:00: 0.0015
2025-02-06 00:00: 0.9985
2025-02-06 01:00: 0.0015
2025-02-06 01:00: 0.9985
2025-02-06 02:00: 0.0015
2025-02-06 02:00: 0.9985
2025-02-06 03:00: 0.0015
2025-02-06 03:00: 0.9985
2025-02-06 04:00: 0.0015
2025-02-06 04:00: 0.9985
2025-02-06 05:00: 0.0015
2025-02-06 05:00: 0.9985
2025-02-06 06:00: 0.0015
2025-02-06 06:00: 0.9985
2025-02-06 07:00: 0.0015
2025-02-06 07:00: 0.9985
2025-02-06 08:00: 0.0015
Trade Summary: No trades available
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 520728
Question: Will Ezra Cohen-Watnick be Trump’s Director of National Intelligence?
Volume: 255050.414711
Price History:
2025-02-06 21:00: 0.0015
2025-02-06 21:00: 0.9985
2025-02-06 22:00: 0.0015
2025-02-06 22:00: 0.9985
2025-02-06 23:00: 0.0015
2025-02-06 23:00: 0.9985
2025-02-07 00:00: 0.0015
2025-02-07 00:00: 0.9985
2025-02-07 01:00: 0.0015
2025-02-07 01:00: 0.9985
2025-02-07 02:00: 0.0015
2025-02-07 02:00: 0.9985
2025-02-07 03:00: 0.0015
2025-02-07 03:00: 0.9985
2025-02-07 04:00: 0.0015
2025-02-07 04:00: 0.9985
2025-02-07 05:00: 0.0015
2025-02-07 05:00: 0.9985
2025-02-07 06:00: 0.0015
2025-02-07 06:00: 0.9985
2025-02-07 07:00: 0.0015
2025-02-07 07:00: 0.9985
2025-02-07 08:00: 0.0015
2025-02-07 08:00: 0.9985
2025-02-07 09:00: 0.0015
2025-02-07 09:00: 0.9985
2025-02-07 10:00: 0.0025
2025-02-07 10:00: 0.9975
2025-02-07 11:00: 0.0025
2025-02-07 11:00: 0.9975
Trade Summary: No trades available
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 520728
Question: Will Ezra Cohen-Watnick be Trump’s Director of National Intelligence?
Volume: 255050.414711
Price History:
2025-02-08 00:00: 0.9975
2025-02-08 01:00: 0.0025
2025-02-08 01:00: 0.9975
2025-02-08 02:00: 0.0025
2025-02-08 02:00: 0.9975
2025-02-08 03:00: 0.0025
2025-02-08 03:00: 0.9975
2025-02-08 04:00: 0.0025
2025-02-08 04:00: 0.9975
2025-02-08 05:00: 0.0025
2025-02-08 05:00: 0.9975
2025-02-08 06:00: 0.0025
2025-02-08 06:00: 0.9975
2025-02-08 07:00: 0.0025
2025-02-08 07:00: 0.9975
2025-02-08 08:00: 0.0025
2025-02-08 08:00: 0.9975
2025-02-08 09:00: 0.0025
2025-02-08 09:00: 0.9975
2025-02-08 10:00: 0.0025
2025-02-08 10:00: 0.9975
2025-02-08 11:00: 0.0025
2025-02-08 11:00: 0.9975
2025-02-08 12:00: 0.0025
2025-02-08 12:00: 0.9975
2025-02-08 13:00: 0.0025
2025-02-08 13:00: 0.9975
2025-02-08 14:00: 0.0025
2025-02-08 14:00: 0.9975
2025-02-08 15:00: 0.0025
Trade Summary: No trades available
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 520728
Question: Will Ezra Cohen-Watnick be Trump’s Director of National Intelligence?
Volume: 255050.414711
Price History:
2025-02-09 04:00: 0.0025
2025-02-09 04:00: 0.9975
2025-02-09 05:00: 0.0025
2025-02-09 05:00: 0.9975
2025-02-09 06:00: 0.0025
2025-02-09 06:00: 0.9975
2025-02-09 07:00: 0.0025
2025-02-09 07:00: 0.9975
2025-02-09 08:00: 0.0025
2025-02-09 08:00: 0.9975
2025-02-09 09:00: 0.0025
2025-02-09 09:00: 0.9975
2025-02-09 10:00: 0.0025
2025-02-09 10:00: 0.9975
2025-02-09 11:00: 0.0025
2025-02-09 11:00: 0.9975
2025-02-09 12:00: 0.0025
2025-02-09 12:00: 0.9975
2025-02-09 13:00: 0.0025
2025-02-09 13:00: 0.9975
2025-02-09 14:00: 0.0025
2025-02-09 14:00: 0.9975
2025-02-09 15:00: 0.0025
2025-02-09 15:00: 0.9975
2025-02-09 16:00: 0.0025
2025-02-09 16:00: 0.9975
2025-02-09 17:00: 0.0025
2025-02-09 17:00: 0.9975
2025-02-09 18:00: 0.0025
2025-02-09 18:00: 0.9975
Trade Summary: No trades available
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 520728
Question: Will Ezra Cohen-Watnick be Trump’s Director of National Intelligence?
Volume: 255050.414711
Price History:
2025-02-10 07:00: 0.9975
2025-02-10 08:00: 0.0025
2025-02-10 08:00: 0.9975
2025-02-10 09:00: 0.0025
2025-02-10 09:00: 0.9975
2025-02-10 10:00: 0.0030
2025-02-10 10:00: 0.9970
2025-02-10 11:00: 0.0030
2025-02-10 11:00: 0.9970
2025-02-10 12:00: 0.0030
2025-02-10 12:00: 0.9970
2025-02-10 13:00: 0.0030
2025-02-10 13:00: 0.9970
2025-02-10 14:00: 0.0030
2025-02-10 14:00: 0.9970
2025-02-10 15:00: 0.0030
2025-02-10 15:00: 0.9970
2025-02-10 16:00: 0.0025
2025-02-10 16:00: 0.9975
2025-02-10 17:00: 0.0025
2025-02-10 17:00: 0.9975
2025-02-10 18:00: 0.0025
2025-02-10 18:00: 0.9975
2025-02-10 19:00: 0.0020
2025-02-10 19:00: 0.9980
2025-02-10 20:00: 0.0005
2025-02-10 20:00: 0.9995
2025-02-10 21:00: 0.0020
2025-02-10 21:00: 0.9980
2025-02-10 22:00: 0.0020
Trade Summary: No trades available
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 520728
Question: Will Ezra Cohen-Watnick be Trump’s Director of National Intelligence?
Volume: 255050.414711
Price History:
2025-02-11 11:00: 0.0020
2025-02-11 11:00: 0.9980
2025-02-11 12:00: 0.0020
2025-02-11 12:00: 0.9980
2025-02-11 13:00: 0.0020
2025-02-11 13:00: 0.9980
2025-02-11 14:00: 0.0020
2025-02-11 14:00: 0.9980
2025-02-11 15:00: 0.0020
2025-02-11 15:00: 0.9980
2025-02-11 16:00: 0.0020
2025-02-11 16:00: 0.9980
2025-02-11 17:00: 0.0020
2025-02-11 17:00: 0.9980
2025-02-11 18:00: 0.0020
2025-02-11 18:00: 0.9980
2025-02-11 19:00: 0.0020
2025-02-11 19:00: 0.9980
2025-02-11 20:00: 0.0020
2025-02-11 20:00: 0.9980
2025-02-11 21:00: 0.0020
2025-02-11 21:00: 0.9980
2025-02-11 22:00: 0.0020
2025-02-11 22:00: 0.9980
2025-02-11 23:00: 0.0015
2025-02-11 23:00: 0.9985
2025-02-12 00:00: 0.0010
2025-02-12 00:00: 0.9990
2025-02-12 01:00: 0.0010
2025-02-12 01:00: 0.9990
Trade Summary: No trades available
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 623549
Question: Will Yaël Braun-Pivet be the next Prime Minister of France?
Volume: 25606.559903
Price History:
2025-10-06 14:00: 0.5100
2025-10-06 14:00: 0.4900
2025-10-06 15:00: 0.5200
2025-10-06 15:00: 0.4800
2025-10-06 16:00: 0.0500
2025-10-06 16:00: 0.9500
2025-10-06 17:00: 0.0500
2025-10-06 17:00: 0.9500
2025-10-06 18:00: 0.9500
2025-10-06 18:00: 0.0500
2025-10-06 19:00: 0.0500
2025-10-06 19:00: 0.9500
2025-10-06 20:00: 0.9500
2025-10-06 20:00: 0.0500
2025-10-06 21:00: 0.0500
Trade Summary: Total trades: 23, Buy volume: 165.00, Sell volume: 0.00, Average price: 0.9791, Price range: 0.9700 - 0.9800
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 623549
Question: Will Yaël Braun-Pivet be the next Prime Minister of France?
Volume: 25606.559903
Price History:
2025-10-06 21:00: 0.9500
2025-10-06 22:00: 0.0500
2025-10-06 22:00: 0.9500
2025-10-06 23:00: 0.9500
2025-10-06 23:00: 0.0500
2025-10-07 00:00: 0.0500
2025-10-07 00:00: 0.9500
2025-10-07 01:00: 0.9500
2025-10-07 01:00: 0.0500
2025-10-07 02:00: 0.0450
2025-10-07 02:00: 0.9550
2025-10-07 03:00: 0.0400
2025-10-07 03:00: 0.9600
2025-10-07 04:00: 0.9650
2025-10-07 04:00: 0.0350
Trade Summary: Total trades: 6, Buy volume: 46.62, Sell volume: 0.00, Average price: 0.9800, Price range: 0.9800 - 0.9800
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 623549
Question: Will Yaël Braun-Pivet be the next Prime Minister of France?
Volume: 25606.559903
Price History:
2025-10-07 05:00: 0.0300
2025-10-07 05:00: 0.9700
2025-10-07 06:00: 0.0250
2025-10-07 06:00: 0.9750
2025-10-07 07:00: 0.9750
2025-10-07 07:00: 0.0250
2025-10-07 08:00: 0.9765
2025-10-07 08:00: 0.0235
2025-10-07 09:00: 0.0490
2025-10-07 09:00: 0.9510
2025-10-07 10:00: 0.0520
2025-10-07 10:00: 0.9480
2025-10-07 11:00: 0.0555
2025-10-07 11:00: 0.9445
2025-10-07 12:00: 0.9680
Trade Summary: Total trades: 28, Buy volume: 457.66, Sell volume: 67.61, Average price: 0.7059, Price range: 0.0100 - 0.9900
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 623549
Question: Will Yaël Braun-Pivet be the next Prime Minister of France?
Volume: 25606.559903
Price History:
2025-10-07 12:00: 0.0320
2025-10-07 13:00: 0.0100
2025-10-07 13:00: 0.9900
2025-10-07 14:00: 0.0100
2025-10-07 14:00: 0.9900
2025-10-07 15:00: 0.0080
2025-10-07 15:00: 0.9920
2025-10-07 16:00: 0.0080
2025-10-07 16:00: 0.9920
2025-10-07 17:00: 0.0105
2025-10-07 17:00: 0.9895
2025-10-07 18:00: 0.9900
2025-10-07 18:00: 0.0100
2025-10-07 19:00: 0.0100
2025-10-07 19:00: 0.9900
Trade Summary: Total trades: 28, Buy volume: 667.62, Sell volume: 88.91, Average price: 0.6074, Price range: 0.0020 - 0.9980
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 623549
Question: Will Yaël Braun-Pivet be the next Prime Minister of France?
Volume: 25606.559903
Price History:
2025-10-07 20:00: 0.0100
2025-10-07 20:00: 0.9900
2025-10-07 21:00: 0.0100
2025-10-07 21:00: 0.9900
2025-10-07 22:00: 0.0100
2025-10-07 22:00: 0.9900
2025-10-07 23:00: 0.0100
2025-10-07 23:00: 0.9900
2025-10-08 00:00: 0.0090
2025-10-08 00:00: 0.9910
2025-10-08 01:00: 0.0090
2025-10-08 01:00: 0.9910
2025-10-08 02:00: 0.0085
2025-10-08 02:00: 0.9915
2025-10-08 03:00: 0.0085
Trade Summary: Total trades: 317, Buy volume: 13786.52, Sell volume: 11820.04, Average price: 0.6593, Price range: 0.0010 - 0.9990
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike, wash_trading

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 623549
Question: Will Yaël Braun-Pivet be the next Prime Minister of France?
Volume: 25606.559903
Price History:
2025-10-08 03:00: 0.9915
2025-10-08 04:00: 0.9910
2025-10-08 04:00: 0.0090
2025-10-08 05:00: 0.9915
2025-10-08 05:00: 0.0085
2025-10-08 06:00: 0.0090
2025-10-08 06:00: 0.9910
2025-10-08 07:00: 0.0090
2025-10-08 07:00: 0.9910
2025-10-08 08:00: 0.0090
2025-10-08 08:00: 0.9910
2025-10-08 09:00: 0.0090
2025-10-08 09:00: 0.9910
2025-10-08 10:00: 0.9910
2025-10-08 10:00: 0.0090
Trade Summary: Total trades: 7, Buy volume: 45.78, Sell volume: 17.79, Average price: 0.5711, Price range: 0.0020 - 0.9980
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 623549
Question: Will Yaël Braun-Pivet be the next Prime Minister of France?
Volume: 25606.559903
Price History:
2025-10-08 11:00: 0.9900
2025-10-08 11:00: 0.0100
2025-10-08 12:00: 0.9900
2025-10-08 12:00: 0.0100
2025-10-08 13:00: 0.0105
2025-10-08 13:00: 0.9895
2025-10-08 14:00: 0.9900
2025-10-08 14:00: 0.0100
2025-10-08 15:00: 0.8705
2025-10-08 15:00: 0.1295
2025-10-08 16:00: 0.8680
2025-10-08 16:00: 0.1320
2025-10-08 17:00: 0.8795
2025-10-08 17:00: 0.1205
2025-10-08 18:00: 0.9100
Trade Summary: Total trades: 22, Buy volume: 908.51, Sell volume: 361.64, Average price: 0.3612, Price range: 0.0140 - 0.9780
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike, wash_trading

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 623549
Question: Will Yaël Braun-Pivet be the next Prime Minister of France?
Volume: 25606.559903
Price History:
2025-10-08 18:00: 0.0900
2025-10-08 19:00: 0.9335
2025-10-08 19:00: 0.0665
2025-10-08 20:00: 0.0655
2025-10-08 20:00: 0.9345
2025-10-08 21:00: 0.9345
2025-10-08 21:00: 0.0655
2025-10-08 22:00: 0.9350
2025-10-08 22:00: 0.0650
2025-10-08 23:00: 0.9610
2025-10-08 23:00: 0.0390
2025-10-09 00:00: 0.9735
2025-10-09 00:00: 0.0265
2025-10-09 01:00: 0.9740
2025-10-09 01:00: 0.0260
Trade Summary: Total trades: 24, Buy volume: 277.49, Sell volume: 153.22, Average price: 0.7053, Price range: 0.0090 - 0.9920
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike, wash_trading

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 623549
Question: Will Yaël Braun-Pivet be the next Prime Minister of France?
Volume: 25606.559903
Price History:
2025-10-09 02:00: 0.9760
2025-10-09 02:00: 0.0240
2025-10-09 03:00: 0.0245
2025-10-09 03:00: 0.9755
2025-10-09 04:00: 0.9770
2025-10-09 04:00: 0.0230
2025-10-09 05:00: 0.0220
2025-10-09 05:00: 0.9780
2025-10-09 06:00: 0.0230
2025-10-09 06:00: 0.9770
2025-10-09 07:00: 0.0205
2025-10-09 07:00: 0.9795
2025-10-09 08:00: 0.0145
2025-10-09 08:00: 0.9855
2025-10-09 09:00: 0.0170
Trade Summary: Total trades: 17, Buy volume: 369.34, Sell volume: 59.48, Average price: 0.7596, Price range: 0.0090 - 0.9910
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 623549
Question: Will Yaël Braun-Pivet be the next Prime Minister of France?
Volume: 25606.559903
Price History:
2025-10-09 09:00: 0.9830
2025-10-09 10:00: 0.0165
2025-10-09 10:00: 0.9835
2025-10-09 11:00: 0.9825
2025-10-09 11:00: 0.0175
2025-10-09 12:00: 0.9825
2025-10-09 12:00: 0.0175
2025-10-09 13:00: 0.0165
2025-10-09 13:00: 0.9835
2025-10-09 14:00: 0.0135
2025-10-09 14:00: 0.9865
2025-10-09 15:00: 0.0135
2025-10-09 15:00: 0.9865
2025-10-09 16:00: 0.0265
2025-10-09 16:00: 0.9735
Trade Summary: Total trades: 23, Buy volume: 563.76, Sell volume: 51.24, Average price: 0.7362, Price range: 0.0100 - 0.9910
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 623549
Question: Will Yaël Braun-Pivet be the next Prime Minister of France?
Volume: 25606.559903
Price History:
2025-10-09 17:00: 0.9755
2025-10-09 17:00: 0.0245
2025-10-09 18:00: 0.0225
2025-10-09 18:00: 0.9775
2025-10-09 19:00: 0.0190
2025-10-09 19:00: 0.9810
2025-10-09 20:00: 0.0225
2025-10-09 20:00: 0.9775
2025-10-09 21:00: 0.9790
2025-10-09 21:00: 0.0210
2025-10-09 22:00: 0.0195
2025-10-09 22:00: 0.9805
2025-10-09 23:00: 0.0195
2025-10-09 23:00: 0.9805
2025-10-10 00:00: 0.9810
Trade Summary: Total trades: 6, Buy volume: 58.46, Sell volume: 56.07, Average price: 0.1786, Price range: 0.0150 - 0.9850
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 623549
Question: Will Yaël Braun-Pivet be the next Prime Minister of France?
Volume: 25606.559903
Price History:
2025-10-10 00:00: 0.0190
2025-10-10 01:00: 0.0200
2025-10-10 01:00: 0.9800
2025-10-10 02:00: 0.9795
2025-10-10 02:00: 0.0205
2025-10-10 03:00: 0.0190
2025-10-10 03:00: 0.9810
2025-10-10 04:00: 0.0165
2025-10-10 04:00: 0.9835
2025-10-10 05:00: 0.0160
2025-10-10 05:00: 0.9840
2025-10-10 06:00: 0.0235
2025-10-10 06:00: 0.9765
2025-10-10 07:00: 0.9820
2025-10-10 07:00: 0.0180
Trade Summary: Total trades: 27, Buy volume: 341.87, Sell volume: 174.42, Average price: 0.8077, Price range: 0.0130 - 0.9910
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 623549
Question: Will Yaël Braun-Pivet be the next Prime Minister of France?
Volume: 25606.559903
Price History:
2025-10-10 08:00: 0.0200
2025-10-10 08:00: 0.9800
2025-10-10 09:00: 0.9830
2025-10-10 09:00: 0.0170
2025-10-10 10:00: 0.0135
2025-10-10 10:00: 0.9865
2025-10-10 11:00: 0.0125
2025-10-10 11:00: 0.9875
2025-10-10 12:00: 0.9720
2025-10-10 12:00: 0.0280
2025-10-10 13:00: 0.9805
2025-10-10 13:00: 0.0195
2025-10-10 14:00: 0.2325
2025-10-10 14:00: 0.7670
2025-10-10 15:00: 0.0850
Trade Summary: Total trades: 62, Buy volume: 2046.32, Sell volume: 279.52, Average price: 0.6319, Price range: 0.0090 - 0.9910
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 623551
Question: Will Catherine Vautrin be the next Prime Minister of France?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 17896.826456
Price History:
2025-10-06 14:00: 0.5100
2025-10-06 14:00: 0.4900
2025-10-06 15:00: 0.4850
2025-10-06 15:00: 0.5150
2025-10-06 16:00: 0.5450
2025-10-06 16:00: 0.4550
2025-10-06 17:00: 0.5300
2025-10-06 17:00: 0.4700
2025-10-06 18:00: 0.2650
2025-10-06 18:00: 0.7350
2025-10-06 19:00: 0.8350
2025-10-06 19:00: 0.1650
2025-10-06 20:00: 0.8750
2025-10-06 20:00: 0.1250
2025-10-06 21:00: 0.8750
Trade Summary: Total trades: 2, Buy volume: 15.00, Sell volume: 0.00, Average price: 0.9600, Price range: 0.9600 - 0.9600

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 623551
Question: Will Catherine Vautrin be the next Prime Minister of France?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 17896.826456
Price History:
2025-10-06 21:00: 0.1250
2025-10-06 22:00: 0.0950
2025-10-06 22:00: 0.9050
2025-10-06 23:00: 0.9100
2025-10-06 23:00: 0.0900
2025-10-07 00:00: 0.0900
2025-10-07 00:00: 0.9100
2025-10-07 01:00: 0.0900
2025-10-07 01:00: 0.9100
2025-10-07 02:00: 0.0850
2025-10-07 02:00: 0.9150
2025-10-07 03:00: 0.9200
2025-10-07 03:00: 0.0800
2025-10-07 04:00: 0.9300
2025-10-07 04:00: 0.0700
Trade Summary: Total trades: 7, Buy volume: 185.87, Sell volume: 9.94, Average price: 0.6901, Price range: 0.0600 - 0.9400

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 623551
Question: Will Catherine Vautrin be the next Prime Minister of France?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 17896.826456
Price History:
2025-10-07 05:00: 0.0700
2025-10-07 05:00: 0.9300
2025-10-07 06:00: 0.0700
2025-10-07 06:00: 0.9300
2025-10-07 07:00: 0.0700
2025-10-07 07:00: 0.9300
2025-10-07 08:00: 0.9300
2025-10-07 08:00: 0.0700
2025-10-07 09:00: 0.9300
2025-10-07 09:00: 0.0700
2025-10-07 10:00: 0.0700
2025-10-07 10:00: 0.9300
2025-10-07 11:00: 0.0700
2025-10-07 11:00: 0.9300
2025-10-07 12:00: 0.9400
Trade Summary: Total trades: 26, Buy volume: 271.16, Sell volume: 52.04, Average price: 0.7050, Price range: 0.0500 - 0.9500

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 623551
Question: Will Catherine Vautrin be the next Prime Minister of France?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 17896.826456
Price History:
2025-10-07 12:00: 0.0600
2025-10-07 13:00: 0.0500
2025-10-07 13:00: 0.9500
2025-10-07 14:00: 0.0305
2025-10-07 14:00: 0.9695
2025-10-07 15:00: 0.0290
2025-10-07 15:00: 0.9710
2025-10-07 16:00: 0.9710
2025-10-07 16:00: 0.0290
2025-10-07 17:00: 0.9710
2025-10-07 17:00: 0.0290
2025-10-07 18:00: 0.9720
2025-10-07 18:00: 0.0280
2025-10-07 19:00: 0.0270
2025-10-07 19:00: 0.9730
Trade Summary: Total trades: 26, Buy volume: 405.90, Sell volume: 416.77, Average price: 0.6062, Price range: 0.0210 - 0.9800

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 623551
Question: Will Catherine Vautrin be the next Prime Minister of France?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 17896.826456
Price History:
2025-10-07 20:00: 0.0205
2025-10-07 20:00: 0.9795
2025-10-07 21:00: 0.0205
2025-10-07 21:00: 0.9795
2025-10-07 22:00: 0.0205
2025-10-07 22:00: 0.9795
2025-10-07 23:00: 0.9795
2025-10-07 23:00: 0.0205
2025-10-08 00:00: 0.9935
2025-10-08 00:00: 0.0065
2025-10-08 01:00: 0.0065
2025-10-08 01:00: 0.9935
2025-10-08 02:00: 0.0065
2025-10-08 02:00: 0.9935
2025-10-08 03:00: 0.0065
Trade Summary: Total trades: 1, Buy volume: 0.00, Sell volume: 104.00, Average price: 0.0200, Price range: 0.0200 - 0.0200

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 623551
Question: Will Catherine Vautrin be the next Prime Minister of France?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 17896.826456
Price History:
2025-10-08 03:00: 0.9935
2025-10-08 04:00: 0.9945
2025-10-08 04:00: 0.0055
2025-10-08 05:00: 0.9945
2025-10-08 05:00: 0.0055
2025-10-08 06:00: 0.9945
2025-10-08 06:00: 0.0055
2025-10-08 07:00: 0.9920
2025-10-08 07:00: 0.0080
2025-10-08 08:00: 0.9920
2025-10-08 08:00: 0.0080
2025-10-08 09:00: 0.9910
2025-10-08 09:00: 0.0090
2025-10-08 10:00: 0.0075
2025-10-08 10:00: 0.9925
Trade Summary: Total trades: 11, Buy volume: 633.34, Sell volume: 138.81, Average price: 0.6343, Price range: 0.0020 - 0.9980

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 623551
Question: Will Catherine Vautrin be the next Prime Minister of France?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 17896.826456
Price History:
2025-10-08 11:00: 0.9925
2025-10-08 11:00: 0.0075
2025-10-08 12:00: 0.0085
2025-10-08 12:00: 0.9915
2025-10-08 13:00: 0.9915
2025-10-08 13:00: 0.0085
2025-10-08 14:00: 0.0210
2025-10-08 14:00: 0.9790
2025-10-08 15:00: 0.9700
2025-10-08 15:00: 0.0300
2025-10-08 16:00: 0.2465
2025-10-08 16:00: 0.7535
2025-10-08 17:00: 0.1265
2025-10-08 17:00: 0.8735
2025-10-08 18:00: 0.8565
Trade Summary: Total trades: 13, Buy volume: 2894.40, Sell volume: 236.78, Average price: 0.3170, Price range: 0.0143 - 0.9727

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 623551
Question: Will Catherine Vautrin be the next Prime Minister of France?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 17896.826456
Price History:
2025-10-08 18:00: 0.1435
2025-10-08 19:00: 0.0670
2025-10-08 19:00: 0.9330
2025-10-08 20:00: 0.9185
2025-10-08 20:00: 0.0815
2025-10-08 21:00: 0.0755
2025-10-08 21:00: 0.9245
2025-10-08 22:00: 0.0780
2025-10-08 22:00: 0.9220
2025-10-08 23:00: 0.9320
2025-10-08 23:00: 0.0680
2025-10-09 00:00: 0.0680
2025-10-09 00:00: 0.9320
2025-10-09 01:00: 0.0680
2025-10-09 01:00: 0.9320
Trade Summary: Total trades: 24, Buy volume: 227.77, Sell volume: 568.06, Average price: 0.6440, Price range: 0.0500 - 0.9443

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 623551
Question: Will Catherine Vautrin be the next Prime Minister of France?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 17896.826456
Price History:
2025-10-09 02:00: 0.9330
2025-10-09 02:00: 0.0670
2025-10-09 03:00: 0.9330
2025-10-09 03:00: 0.0670
2025-10-09 04:00: 0.0665
2025-10-09 04:00: 0.9335
2025-10-09 05:00: 0.8390
2025-10-09 05:00: 0.1610
2025-10-09 06:00: 0.1575
2025-10-09 06:00: 0.8425
2025-10-09 07:00: 0.8640
2025-10-09 07:00: 0.1360
2025-10-09 08:00: 0.8715
2025-10-09 08:00: 0.1285
2025-10-09 09:00: 0.9065
Trade Summary: Total trades: 22, Buy volume: 360.13, Sell volume: 804.96, Average price: 0.6589, Price range: 0.0550 - 0.9450

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 623551
Question: Will Catherine Vautrin be the next Prime Minister of France?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 17896.826456
Price History:
2025-10-09 09:00: 0.0935
2025-10-09 10:00: 0.9725
2025-10-09 10:00: 0.0275
2025-10-09 11:00: 0.9725
2025-10-09 11:00: 0.0275
2025-10-09 12:00: 0.0520
2025-10-09 12:00: 0.9480
2025-10-09 13:00: 0.0440
2025-10-09 13:00: 0.9560
2025-10-09 14:00: 0.9355
2025-10-09 14:00: 0.0645
2025-10-09 15:00: 0.9345
2025-10-09 15:00: 0.0655
2025-10-09 16:00: 0.9345
2025-10-09 16:00: 0.0655
Trade Summary: Total trades: 27, Buy volume: 565.62, Sell volume: 36.66, Average price: 0.6819, Price range: 0.0120 - 0.9910

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 623551
Question: Will Catherine Vautrin be the next Prime Minister of France?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 17896.826456
Price History:
2025-10-09 17:00: 0.9465
2025-10-09 17:00: 0.0535
2025-10-09 18:00: 0.9505
2025-10-09 18:00: 0.0495
2025-10-09 19:00: 0.0450
2025-10-09 19:00: 0.9550
2025-10-09 20:00: 0.9550
2025-10-09 20:00: 0.0450
2025-10-09 21:00: 0.9550
2025-10-09 21:00: 0.0450
2025-10-09 22:00: 0.9560
2025-10-09 22:00: 0.0440
2025-10-09 23:00: 0.9550
2025-10-09 23:00: 0.0450
2025-10-10 00:00: 0.0440
Trade Summary: Total trades: 5, Buy volume: 20.00, Sell volume: 56.07, Average price: 0.2246, Price range: 0.0410 - 0.9590

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 623551
Question: Will Catherine Vautrin be the next Prime Minister of France?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 17896.826456
Price History:
2025-10-10 00:00: 0.9560
2025-10-10 01:00: 0.9560
2025-10-10 01:00: 0.0440
2025-10-10 02:00: 0.9560
2025-10-10 02:00: 0.0440
2025-10-10 03:00: 0.9640
2025-10-10 03:00: 0.0360
2025-10-10 04:00: 0.0370
2025-10-10 04:00: 0.9630
2025-10-10 05:00: 0.0420
2025-10-10 05:00: 0.9580
2025-10-10 06:00: 0.9605
2025-10-10 06:00: 0.0395
2025-10-10 07:00: 0.9610
2025-10-10 07:00: 0.0390
Trade Summary: Total trades: 25, Buy volume: 578.49, Sell volume: 35.96, Average price: 0.8570, Price range: 0.0380 - 0.9700

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 623551
Question: Will Catherine Vautrin be the next Prime Minister of France?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 17896.826456
Price History:
2025-10-10 08:00: 0.9605
2025-10-10 08:00: 0.0395
2025-10-10 09:00: 0.0325
2025-10-10 09:00: 0.9675
2025-10-10 10:00: 0.0245
2025-10-10 10:00: 0.9755
2025-10-10 11:00: 0.0175
2025-10-10 11:00: 0.9825
2025-10-10 12:00: 0.9780
2025-10-10 12:00: 0.0220
2025-10-10 13:00: 0.9740
2025-10-10 13:00: 0.0260
2025-10-10 14:00: 0.8860
2025-10-10 14:00: 0.1140
2025-10-10 15:00: 0.1225
Trade Summary: Total trades: 61, Buy volume: 1224.82, Sell volume: 362.17, Average price: 0.6877, Price range: 0.0100 - 0.9950

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 623551
Question: Will Catherine Vautrin be the next Prime Minister of France?
Volume: 17896.826456
Price History:
2025-10-06 14:00: 0.5100
2025-10-06 14:00: 0.4900
2025-10-06 15:00: 0.4850
2025-10-06 15:00: 0.5150
2025-10-06 16:00: 0.5450
2025-10-06 16:00: 0.4550
2025-10-06 17:00: 0.5300
2025-10-06 17:00: 0.4700
2025-10-06 18:00: 0.2650
2025-10-06 18:00: 0.7350
2025-10-06 19:00: 0.8350
2025-10-06 19:00: 0.1650
2025-10-06 20:00: 0.8750
2025-10-06 20:00: 0.1250
2025-10-06 21:00: 0.8750
Trade Summary: Total trades: 2, Buy volume: 15.00, Sell volume: 0.00, Average price: 0.9600, Price range: 0.9600 - 0.9600
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 623551
Question: Will Catherine Vautrin be the next Prime Minister of France?
Volume: 17896.826456
Price History:
2025-10-06 21:00: 0.1250
2025-10-06 22:00: 0.0950
2025-10-06 22:00: 0.9050
2025-10-06 23:00: 0.9100
2025-10-06 23:00: 0.0900
2025-10-07 00:00: 0.0900
2025-10-07 00:00: 0.9100
2025-10-07 01:00: 0.0900
2025-10-07 01:00: 0.9100
2025-10-07 02:00: 0.0850
2025-10-07 02:00: 0.9150
2025-10-07 03:00: 0.9200
2025-10-07 03:00: 0.0800
2025-10-07 04:00: 0.9300
2025-10-07 04:00: 0.0700
Trade Summary: Total trades: 7, Buy volume: 185.87, Sell volume: 9.94, Average price: 0.6901, Price range: 0.0600 - 0.9400
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 623551
Question: Will Catherine Vautrin be the next Prime Minister of France?
Volume: 17896.826456
Price History:
2025-10-07 05:00: 0.0700
2025-10-07 05:00: 0.9300
2025-10-07 06:00: 0.0700
2025-10-07 06:00: 0.9300
2025-10-07 07:00: 0.0700
2025-10-07 07:00: 0.9300
2025-10-07 08:00: 0.9300
2025-10-07 08:00: 0.0700
2025-10-07 09:00: 0.9300
2025-10-07 09:00: 0.0700
2025-10-07 10:00: 0.0700
2025-10-07 10:00: 0.9300
2025-10-07 11:00: 0.0700
2025-10-07 11:00: 0.9300
2025-10-07 12:00: 0.9400
Trade Summary: Total trades: 26, Buy volume: 271.16, Sell volume: 52.04, Average price: 0.7050, Price range: 0.0500 - 0.9500
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 623551
Question: Will Catherine Vautrin be the next Prime Minister of France?
Volume: 17896.826456
Price History:
2025-10-07 12:00: 0.0600
2025-10-07 13:00: 0.0500
2025-10-07 13:00: 0.9500
2025-10-07 14:00: 0.0305
2025-10-07 14:00: 0.9695
2025-10-07 15:00: 0.0290
2025-10-07 15:00: 0.9710
2025-10-07 16:00: 0.9710
2025-10-07 16:00: 0.0290
2025-10-07 17:00: 0.9710
2025-10-07 17:00: 0.0290
2025-10-07 18:00: 0.9720
2025-10-07 18:00: 0.0280
2025-10-07 19:00: 0.0270
2025-10-07 19:00: 0.9730
Trade Summary: Total trades: 26, Buy volume: 405.90, Sell volume: 416.77, Average price: 0.6062, Price range: 0.0210 - 0.9800
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 623551
Question: Will Catherine Vautrin be the next Prime Minister of France?
Volume: 17896.826456
Price History:
2025-10-07 20:00: 0.0205
2025-10-07 20:00: 0.9795
2025-10-07 21:00: 0.0205
2025-10-07 21:00: 0.9795
2025-10-07 22:00: 0.0205
2025-10-07 22:00: 0.9795
2025-10-07 23:00: 0.9795
2025-10-07 23:00: 0.0205
2025-10-08 00:00: 0.9935
2025-10-08 00:00: 0.0065
2025-10-08 01:00: 0.0065
2025-10-08 01:00: 0.9935
2025-10-08 02:00: 0.0065
2025-10-08 02:00: 0.9935
2025-10-08 03:00: 0.0065
Trade Summary: Total trades: 1, Buy volume: 0.00, Sell volume: 104.00, Average price: 0.0200, Price range: 0.0200 - 0.0200
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 623551
Question: Will Catherine Vautrin be the next Prime Minister of France?
Volume: 17896.826456
Price History:
2025-10-08 03:00: 0.9935
2025-10-08 04:00: 0.9945
2025-10-08 04:00: 0.0055
2025-10-08 05:00: 0.9945
2025-10-08 05:00: 0.0055
2025-10-08 06:00: 0.9945
2025-10-08 06:00: 0.0055
2025-10-08 07:00: 0.9920
2025-10-08 07:00: 0.0080
2025-10-08 08:00: 0.9920
2025-10-08 08:00: 0.0080
2025-10-08 09:00: 0.9910
2025-10-08 09:00: 0.0090
2025-10-08 10:00: 0.0075
2025-10-08 10:00: 0.9925
Trade Summary: Total trades: 11, Buy volume: 633.34, Sell volume: 138.81, Average price: 0.6343, Price range: 0.0020 - 0.9980
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike, wash_trading

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 623551
Question: Will Catherine Vautrin be the next Prime Minister of France?
Volume: 17896.826456
Price History:
2025-10-08 11:00: 0.9925
2025-10-08 11:00: 0.0075
2025-10-08 12:00: 0.0085
2025-10-08 12:00: 0.9915
2025-10-08 13:00: 0.9915
2025-10-08 13:00: 0.0085
2025-10-08 14:00: 0.0210
2025-10-08 14:00: 0.9790
2025-10-08 15:00: 0.9700
2025-10-08 15:00: 0.0300
2025-10-08 16:00: 0.2465
2025-10-08 16:00: 0.7535
2025-10-08 17:00: 0.1265
2025-10-08 17:00: 0.8735
2025-10-08 18:00: 0.8565
Trade Summary: Total trades: 13, Buy volume: 2894.40, Sell volume: 236.78, Average price: 0.3170, Price range: 0.0143 - 0.9727
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 623551
Question: Will Catherine Vautrin be the next Prime Minister of France?
Volume: 17896.826456
Price History:
2025-10-08 18:00: 0.1435
2025-10-08 19:00: 0.0670
2025-10-08 19:00: 0.9330
2025-10-08 20:00: 0.9185
2025-10-08 20:00: 0.0815
2025-10-08 21:00: 0.0755
2025-10-08 21:00: 0.9245
2025-10-08 22:00: 0.0780
2025-10-08 22:00: 0.9220
2025-10-08 23:00: 0.9320
2025-10-08 23:00: 0.0680
2025-10-09 00:00: 0.0680
2025-10-09 00:00: 0.9320
2025-10-09 01:00: 0.0680
2025-10-09 01:00: 0.9320
Trade Summary: Total trades: 24, Buy volume: 227.77, Sell volume: 568.06, Average price: 0.6440, Price range: 0.0500 - 0.9443
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 623551
Question: Will Catherine Vautrin be the next Prime Minister of France?
Volume: 17896.826456
Price History:
2025-10-09 02:00: 0.9330
2025-10-09 02:00: 0.0670
2025-10-09 03:00: 0.9330
2025-10-09 03:00: 0.0670
2025-10-09 04:00: 0.0665
2025-10-09 04:00: 0.9335
2025-10-09 05:00: 0.8390
2025-10-09 05:00: 0.1610
2025-10-09 06:00: 0.1575
2025-10-09 06:00: 0.8425
2025-10-09 07:00: 0.8640
2025-10-09 07:00: 0.1360
2025-10-09 08:00: 0.8715
2025-10-09 08:00: 0.1285
2025-10-09 09:00: 0.9065
Trade Summary: Total trades: 22, Buy volume: 360.13, Sell volume: 804.96, Average price: 0.6589, Price range: 0.0550 - 0.9450
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 623551
Question: Will Catherine Vautrin be the next Prime Minister of France?
Volume: 17896.826456
Price History:
2025-10-09 09:00: 0.0935
2025-10-09 10:00: 0.9725
2025-10-09 10:00: 0.0275
2025-10-09 11:00: 0.9725
2025-10-09 11:00: 0.0275
2025-10-09 12:00: 0.0520
2025-10-09 12:00: 0.9480
2025-10-09 13:00: 0.0440
2025-10-09 13:00: 0.9560
2025-10-09 14:00: 0.9355
2025-10-09 14:00: 0.0645
2025-10-09 15:00: 0.9345
2025-10-09 15:00: 0.0655
2025-10-09 16:00: 0.9345
2025-10-09 16:00: 0.0655
Trade Summary: Total trades: 27, Buy volume: 565.62, Sell volume: 36.66, Average price: 0.6819, Price range: 0.0120 - 0.9910
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 623551
Question: Will Catherine Vautrin be the next Prime Minister of France?
Volume: 17896.826456
Price History:
2025-10-09 17:00: 0.9465
2025-10-09 17:00: 0.0535
2025-10-09 18:00: 0.9505
2025-10-09 18:00: 0.0495
2025-10-09 19:00: 0.0450
2025-10-09 19:00: 0.9550
2025-10-09 20:00: 0.9550
2025-10-09 20:00: 0.0450
2025-10-09 21:00: 0.9550
2025-10-09 21:00: 0.0450
2025-10-09 22:00: 0.9560
2025-10-09 22:00: 0.0440
2025-10-09 23:00: 0.9550
2025-10-09 23:00: 0.0450
2025-10-10 00:00: 0.0440
Trade Summary: Total trades: 5, Buy volume: 20.00, Sell volume: 56.07, Average price: 0.2246, Price range: 0.0410 - 0.9590
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 623551
Question: Will Catherine Vautrin be the next Prime Minister of France?
Volume: 17896.826456
Price History:
2025-10-10 00:00: 0.9560
2025-10-10 01:00: 0.9560
2025-10-10 01:00: 0.0440
2025-10-10 02:00: 0.9560
2025-10-10 02:00: 0.0440
2025-10-10 03:00: 0.9640
2025-10-10 03:00: 0.0360
2025-10-10 04:00: 0.0370
2025-10-10 04:00: 0.9630
2025-10-10 05:00: 0.0420
2025-10-10 05:00: 0.9580
2025-10-10 06:00: 0.9605
2025-10-10 06:00: 0.0395
2025-10-10 07:00: 0.9610
2025-10-10 07:00: 0.0390
Trade Summary: Total trades: 25, Buy volume: 578.49, Sell volume: 35.96, Average price: 0.8570, Price range: 0.0380 - 0.9700
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 623551
Question: Will Catherine Vautrin be the next Prime Minister of France?
Volume: 17896.826456
Price History:
2025-10-10 08:00: 0.9605
2025-10-10 08:00: 0.0395
2025-10-10 09:00: 0.0325
2025-10-10 09:00: 0.9675
2025-10-10 10:00: 0.0245
2025-10-10 10:00: 0.9755
2025-10-10 11:00: 0.0175
2025-10-10 11:00: 0.9825
2025-10-10 12:00: 0.9780
2025-10-10 12:00: 0.0220
2025-10-10 13:00: 0.9740
2025-10-10 13:00: 0.0260
2025-10-10 14:00: 0.8860
2025-10-10 14:00: 0.1140
2025-10-10 15:00: 0.1225
Trade Summary: Total trades: 61, Buy volume: 1224.82, Sell volume: 362.17, Average price: 0.6877, Price range: 0.0100 - 0.9950
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 623553
Question: Will Roland Lescure be the next Prime Minister of France?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 16856.972185
Price History:
2025-10-06 14:00: 0.5050
2025-10-06 14:00: 0.4950
2025-10-06 15:00: 0.5200
2025-10-06 15:00: 0.4800
2025-10-06 16:00: 0.7950
2025-10-06 16:00: 0.2050
2025-10-06 17:00: 0.9650
2025-10-06 17:00: 0.0350
2025-10-06 18:00: 0.9695
2025-10-06 18:00: 0.0305
2025-10-06 19:00: 0.0305
2025-10-06 19:00: 0.9695
2025-10-06 20:00: 0.0125
2025-10-06 20:00: 0.9875
2025-10-06 21:00: 0.9875
Trade Summary: Total trades: 23, Buy volume: 165.00, Sell volume: 0.00, Average price: 0.9827, Price range: 0.9600 - 0.9900

Output: No


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 623553
Question: Will Roland Lescure be the next Prime Minister of France?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 16856.972185
Price History:
2025-10-06 21:00: 0.0125
2025-10-06 22:00: 0.9875
2025-10-06 22:00: 0.0125
2025-10-06 23:00: 0.0125
2025-10-06 23:00: 0.9875
2025-10-07 00:00: 0.9875
2025-10-07 00:00: 0.0125
2025-10-07 01:00: 0.9880
2025-10-07 01:00: 0.0120
2025-10-07 02:00: 0.9875
2025-10-07 02:00: 0.0125
2025-10-07 03:00: 0.9870
2025-10-07 03:00: 0.0130
2025-10-07 04:00: 0.0130
2025-10-07 04:00: 0.9870
Trade Summary: Total trades: 7, Buy volume: 298.91, Sell volume: 65.00, Average price: 0.7100, Price range: 0.0110 - 0.9890

Output: No


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 623553
Question: Will Roland Lescure be the next Prime Minister of France?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 16856.972185
Price History:
2025-10-07 05:00: 0.0130
2025-10-07 05:00: 0.9870
2025-10-07 06:00: 0.0120
2025-10-07 06:00: 0.9880
2025-10-07 07:00: 0.0080
2025-10-07 07:00: 0.9920
2025-10-07 08:00: 0.9920
2025-10-07 08:00: 0.0080
2025-10-07 09:00: 0.9950
2025-10-07 09:00: 0.0050
2025-10-07 10:00: 0.0055
2025-10-07 10:00: 0.9945
2025-10-07 11:00: 0.0055
2025-10-07 11:00: 0.9945
2025-10-07 12:00: 0.9945
Trade Summary: Total trades: 26, Buy volume: 262.70, Sell volume: 81.06, Average price: 0.6905, Price range: 0.0030 - 0.9970

Output: No


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 623553
Question: Will Roland Lescure be the next Prime Minister of France?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 16856.972185
Price History:
2025-10-07 12:00: 0.0055
2025-10-07 13:00: 0.9965
2025-10-07 13:00: 0.0035
2025-10-07 14:00: 0.0035
2025-10-07 14:00: 0.9965
2025-10-07 15:00: 0.9965
2025-10-07 15:00: 0.0035
2025-10-07 16:00: 0.9965
2025-10-07 16:00: 0.0035
2025-10-07 17:00: 0.9965
2025-10-07 17:00: 0.0035
2025-10-07 18:00: 0.9965
2025-10-07 18:00: 0.0035
2025-10-07 19:00: 0.0035
2025-10-07 19:00: 0.9965
Trade Summary: Total trades: 26, Buy volume: 436.24, Sell volume: 88.91, Average price: 0.6529, Price range: 0.0030 - 0.9970

Output: No


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 623553
Question: Will Roland Lescure be the next Prime Minister of France?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 16856.972185
Price History:
2025-10-07 20:00: 0.0035
2025-10-07 20:00: 0.9965
2025-10-07 21:00: 0.9965
2025-10-07 21:00: 0.0035
2025-10-07 22:00: 0.9965
2025-10-07 22:00: 0.0035
2025-10-07 23:00: 0.9965
2025-10-07 23:00: 0.0035
2025-10-08 00:00: 0.9965
2025-10-08 00:00: 0.0035
2025-10-08 01:00: 0.9965
2025-10-08 01:00: 0.0035
2025-10-08 02:00: 0.0035
2025-10-08 02:00: 0.9965
2025-10-08 03:00: 0.9965
Trade Summary: Total trades: 16, Buy volume: 1492.88, Sell volume: 1491.88, Average price: 0.9965, Price range: 0.9960 - 0.9970

Output: No


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 623553
Question: Will Roland Lescure be the next Prime Minister of France?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 16856.972185
Price History:
2025-10-08 03:00: 0.0035
2025-10-08 04:00: 0.9970
2025-10-08 04:00: 0.0030
2025-10-08 05:00: 0.0030
2025-10-08 05:00: 0.9970
2025-10-08 06:00: 0.9860
2025-10-08 06:00: 0.0140
2025-10-08 07:00: 0.0135
2025-10-08 07:00: 0.9865
2025-10-08 08:00: 0.0135
2025-10-08 08:00: 0.9865
2025-10-08 09:00: 0.0140
2025-10-08 09:00: 0.9860
2025-10-08 10:00: 0.0275
2025-10-08 10:00: 0.9725
Trade Summary: Total trades: 9, Buy volume: 1463.40, Sell volume: 17.79, Average price: 0.4465, Price range: 0.0020 - 0.9980

Output: No


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 623553
Question: Will Roland Lescure be the next Prime Minister of France?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 16856.972185
Price History:
2025-10-08 11:00: 0.9765
2025-10-08 11:00: 0.0235
2025-10-08 12:00: 0.0210
2025-10-08 12:00: 0.9790
2025-10-08 13:00: 0.9740
2025-10-08 13:00: 0.0260
2025-10-08 14:00: 0.0230
2025-10-08 14:00: 0.9770
2025-10-08 15:00: 0.0250
2025-10-08 15:00: 0.9750
2025-10-08 16:00: 0.0235
2025-10-08 16:00: 0.9765
2025-10-08 17:00: 0.1110
2025-10-08 17:00: 0.8890
2025-10-08 18:00: 0.8885
Trade Summary: Total trades: 5, Buy volume: 782.76, Sell volume: 0.00, Average price: 0.6111, Price range: 0.0490 - 0.9960

Output: No


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 623553
Question: Will Roland Lescure be the next Prime Minister of France?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 16856.972185
Price History:
2025-10-08 18:00: 0.1115
2025-10-08 19:00: 0.1170
2025-10-08 19:00: 0.8830
2025-10-08 20:00: 0.8830
2025-10-08 20:00: 0.1170
2025-10-08 21:00: 0.1170
2025-10-08 21:00: 0.8830
2025-10-08 22:00: 0.1170
2025-10-08 22:00: 0.8830
2025-10-08 23:00: 0.1060
2025-10-08 23:00: 0.8940
2025-10-09 00:00: 0.0880
2025-10-09 00:00: 0.9120
2025-10-09 01:00: 0.0870
2025-10-09 01:00: 0.9130
Trade Summary: Total trades: 20, Buy volume: 237.71, Sell volume: 74.58, Average price: 0.7379, Price range: 0.0050 - 0.9960

Output: No


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 623553
Question: Will Roland Lescure be the next Prime Minister of France?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 16856.972185
Price History:
2025-10-09 02:00: 0.1085
2025-10-09 02:00: 0.8915
2025-10-09 03:00: 0.8810
2025-10-09 03:00: 0.1190
2025-10-09 04:00: 0.1190
2025-10-09 04:00: 0.8810
2025-10-09 05:00: 0.0755
2025-10-09 05:00: 0.9245
2025-10-09 06:00: 0.1220
2025-10-09 06:00: 0.8780
2025-10-09 07:00: 0.0865
2025-10-09 07:00: 0.9135
2025-10-09 08:00: 0.0705
2025-10-09 08:00: 0.9295
2025-10-09 09:00: 0.0780
Trade Summary: Total trades: 16, Buy volume: 311.83, Sell volume: 189.47, Average price: 0.7895, Price range: 0.0300 - 0.9800

Output: No


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 623553
Question: Will Roland Lescure be the next Prime Minister of France?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 16856.972185
Price History:
2025-10-09 09:00: 0.9220
2025-10-09 10:00: 0.0545
2025-10-09 10:00: 0.9455
2025-10-09 11:00: 0.9450
2025-10-09 11:00: 0.0550
2025-10-09 12:00: 0.9425
2025-10-09 12:00: 0.0575
2025-10-09 13:00: 0.9415
2025-10-09 13:00: 0.0585
2025-10-09 14:00: 0.0545
2025-10-09 14:00: 0.9455
2025-10-09 15:00: 0.0650
2025-10-09 15:00: 0.9350
2025-10-09 16:00: 0.0545
2025-10-09 16:00: 0.9455
Trade Summary: Total trades: 23, Buy volume: 326.39, Sell volume: 48.91, Average price: 0.8019, Price range: 0.0110 - 0.9960

Output: No


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 623553
Question: Will Roland Lescure be the next Prime Minister of France?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 16856.972185
Price History:
2025-10-09 17:00: 0.9460
2025-10-09 17:00: 0.0540
2025-10-09 18:00: 0.0265
2025-10-09 18:00: 0.9735
2025-10-09 19:00: 0.0615
2025-10-09 19:00: 0.9385
2025-10-09 20:00: 0.0630
2025-10-09 20:00: 0.9370
2025-10-09 21:00: 0.0615
2025-10-09 21:00: 0.9385
2025-10-09 22:00: 0.9375
2025-10-09 22:00: 0.0625
2025-10-09 23:00: 0.0630
2025-10-09 23:00: 0.9370
2025-10-10 00:00: 0.9375
Trade Summary: Total trades: 6, Buy volume: 20.00, Sell volume: 145.03, Average price: 0.1728, Price range: 0.0040 - 0.9960

Output: No


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 623553
Question: Will Roland Lescure be the next Prime Minister of France?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 16856.972185
Price History:
2025-10-10 00:00: 0.0625
2025-10-10 01:00: 0.8985
2025-10-10 01:00: 0.1015
2025-10-10 02:00: 0.8905
2025-10-10 02:00: 0.1095
2025-10-10 03:00: 0.0320
2025-10-10 03:00: 0.9680
2025-10-10 04:00: 0.0685
2025-10-10 04:00: 0.9315
2025-10-10 05:00: 0.9420
2025-10-10 05:00: 0.0580
2025-10-10 06:00: 0.9540
2025-10-10 06:00: 0.0460
2025-10-10 07:00: 0.0395
2025-10-10 07:00: 0.9605
Trade Summary: Total trades: 24, Buy volume: 314.65, Sell volume: 35.96, Average price: 0.9087, Price range: 0.0040 - 0.9970

Output: No


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 623553
Question: Will Roland Lescure be the next Prime Minister of France?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 16856.972185
Price History:
2025-10-10 08:00: 0.9705
2025-10-10 08:00: 0.0295
2025-10-10 09:00: 0.0030
2025-10-10 09:00: 0.9970
2025-10-10 10:00: 0.9975
2025-10-10 10:00: 0.0025
2025-10-10 11:00: 0.9970
2025-10-10 11:00: 0.0030
2025-10-10 12:00: 0.0110
2025-10-10 12:00: 0.9890
2025-10-10 13:00: 0.9165
2025-10-10 13:00: 0.0835
2025-10-10 14:00: 0.9165
2025-10-10 14:00: 0.0835
2025-10-10 15:00: 0.9165
Trade Summary: Total trades: 50, Buy volume: 1535.51, Sell volume: 287.49, Average price: 0.6796, Price range: 0.0020 - 0.9980

Output: No


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 623553
Question: Will Roland Lescure be the next Prime Minister of France?
Volume: 16856.972185
Price History:
2025-10-06 14:00: 0.5050
2025-10-06 14:00: 0.4950
2025-10-06 15:00: 0.5200
2025-10-06 15:00: 0.4800
2025-10-06 16:00: 0.7950
2025-10-06 16:00: 0.2050
2025-10-06 17:00: 0.9650
2025-10-06 17:00: 0.0350
2025-10-06 18:00: 0.9695
2025-10-06 18:00: 0.0305
2025-10-06 19:00: 0.0305
2025-10-06 19:00: 0.9695
2025-10-06 20:00: 0.0125
2025-10-06 20:00: 0.9875
2025-10-06 21:00: 0.9875
Trade Summary: Total trades: 23, Buy volume: 165.00, Sell volume: 0.00, Average price: 0.9827, Price range: 0.9600 - 0.9900
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 623553
Question: Will Roland Lescure be the next Prime Minister of France?
Volume: 16856.972185
Price History:
2025-10-06 21:00: 0.0125
2025-10-06 22:00: 0.9875
2025-10-06 22:00: 0.0125
2025-10-06 23:00: 0.0125
2025-10-06 23:00: 0.9875
2025-10-07 00:00: 0.9875
2025-10-07 00:00: 0.0125
2025-10-07 01:00: 0.9880
2025-10-07 01:00: 0.0120
2025-10-07 02:00: 0.9875
2025-10-07 02:00: 0.0125
2025-10-07 03:00: 0.9870
2025-10-07 03:00: 0.0130
2025-10-07 04:00: 0.0130
2025-10-07 04:00: 0.9870
Trade Summary: Total trades: 7, Buy volume: 298.91, Sell volume: 65.00, Average price: 0.7100, Price range: 0.0110 - 0.9890
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 623553
Question: Will Roland Lescure be the next Prime Minister of France?
Volume: 16856.972185
Price History:
2025-10-07 05:00: 0.0130
2025-10-07 05:00: 0.9870
2025-10-07 06:00: 0.0120
2025-10-07 06:00: 0.9880
2025-10-07 07:00: 0.0080
2025-10-07 07:00: 0.9920
2025-10-07 08:00: 0.9920
2025-10-07 08:00: 0.0080
2025-10-07 09:00: 0.9950
2025-10-07 09:00: 0.0050
2025-10-07 10:00: 0.0055
2025-10-07 10:00: 0.9945
2025-10-07 11:00: 0.0055
2025-10-07 11:00: 0.9945
2025-10-07 12:00: 0.9945
Trade Summary: Total trades: 26, Buy volume: 262.70, Sell volume: 81.06, Average price: 0.6905, Price range: 0.0030 - 0.9970
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 623553
Question: Will Roland Lescure be the next Prime Minister of France?
Volume: 16856.972185
Price History:
2025-10-07 12:00: 0.0055
2025-10-07 13:00: 0.9965
2025-10-07 13:00: 0.0035
2025-10-07 14:00: 0.0035
2025-10-07 14:00: 0.9965
2025-10-07 15:00: 0.9965
2025-10-07 15:00: 0.0035
2025-10-07 16:00: 0.9965
2025-10-07 16:00: 0.0035
2025-10-07 17:00: 0.9965
2025-10-07 17:00: 0.0035
2025-10-07 18:00: 0.9965
2025-10-07 18:00: 0.0035
2025-10-07 19:00: 0.0035
2025-10-07 19:00: 0.9965
Trade Summary: Total trades: 26, Buy volume: 436.24, Sell volume: 88.91, Average price: 0.6529, Price range: 0.0030 - 0.9970
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 623553
Question: Will Roland Lescure be the next Prime Minister of France?
Volume: 16856.972185
Price History:
2025-10-07 20:00: 0.0035
2025-10-07 20:00: 0.9965
2025-10-07 21:00: 0.9965
2025-10-07 21:00: 0.0035
2025-10-07 22:00: 0.9965
2025-10-07 22:00: 0.0035
2025-10-07 23:00: 0.9965
2025-10-07 23:00: 0.0035
2025-10-08 00:00: 0.9965
2025-10-08 00:00: 0.0035
2025-10-08 01:00: 0.9965
2025-10-08 01:00: 0.0035
2025-10-08 02:00: 0.0035
2025-10-08 02:00: 0.9965
2025-10-08 03:00: 0.9965
Trade Summary: Total trades: 16, Buy volume: 1492.88, Sell volume: 1491.88, Average price: 0.9965, Price range: 0.9960 - 0.9970
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike, wash_trading

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 623553
Question: Will Roland Lescure be the next Prime Minister of France?
Volume: 16856.972185
Price History:
2025-10-08 03:00: 0.0035
2025-10-08 04:00: 0.9970
2025-10-08 04:00: 0.0030
2025-10-08 05:00: 0.0030
2025-10-08 05:00: 0.9970
2025-10-08 06:00: 0.9860
2025-10-08 06:00: 0.0140
2025-10-08 07:00: 0.0135
2025-10-08 07:00: 0.9865
2025-10-08 08:00: 0.0135
2025-10-08 08:00: 0.9865
2025-10-08 09:00: 0.0140
2025-10-08 09:00: 0.9860
2025-10-08 10:00: 0.0275
2025-10-08 10:00: 0.9725
Trade Summary: Total trades: 9, Buy volume: 1463.40, Sell volume: 17.79, Average price: 0.4465, Price range: 0.0020 - 0.9980
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 623553
Question: Will Roland Lescure be the next Prime Minister of France?
Volume: 16856.972185
Price History:
2025-10-08 11:00: 0.9765
2025-10-08 11:00: 0.0235
2025-10-08 12:00: 0.0210
2025-10-08 12:00: 0.9790
2025-10-08 13:00: 0.9740
2025-10-08 13:00: 0.0260
2025-10-08 14:00: 0.0230
2025-10-08 14:00: 0.9770
2025-10-08 15:00: 0.0250
2025-10-08 15:00: 0.9750
2025-10-08 16:00: 0.0235
2025-10-08 16:00: 0.9765
2025-10-08 17:00: 0.1110
2025-10-08 17:00: 0.8890
2025-10-08 18:00: 0.8885
Trade Summary: Total trades: 5, Buy volume: 782.76, Sell volume: 0.00, Average price: 0.6111, Price range: 0.0490 - 0.9960
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 623553
Question: Will Roland Lescure be the next Prime Minister of France?
Volume: 16856.972185
Price History:
2025-10-08 18:00: 0.1115
2025-10-08 19:00: 0.1170
2025-10-08 19:00: 0.8830
2025-10-08 20:00: 0.8830
2025-10-08 20:00: 0.1170
2025-10-08 21:00: 0.1170
2025-10-08 21:00: 0.8830
2025-10-08 22:00: 0.1170
2025-10-08 22:00: 0.8830
2025-10-08 23:00: 0.1060
2025-10-08 23:00: 0.8940
2025-10-09 00:00: 0.0880
2025-10-09 00:00: 0.9120
2025-10-09 01:00: 0.0870
2025-10-09 01:00: 0.9130
Trade Summary: Total trades: 20, Buy volume: 237.71, Sell volume: 74.58, Average price: 0.7379, Price range: 0.0050 - 0.9960
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 623553
Question: Will Roland Lescure be the next Prime Minister of France?
Volume: 16856.972185
Price History:
2025-10-09 02:00: 0.1085
2025-10-09 02:00: 0.8915
2025-10-09 03:00: 0.8810
2025-10-09 03:00: 0.1190
2025-10-09 04:00: 0.1190
2025-10-09 04:00: 0.8810
2025-10-09 05:00: 0.0755
2025-10-09 05:00: 0.9245
2025-10-09 06:00: 0.1220
2025-10-09 06:00: 0.8780
2025-10-09 07:00: 0.0865
2025-10-09 07:00: 0.9135
2025-10-09 08:00: 0.0705
2025-10-09 08:00: 0.9295
2025-10-09 09:00: 0.0780
Trade Summary: Total trades: 16, Buy volume: 311.83, Sell volume: 189.47, Average price: 0.7895, Price range: 0.0300 - 0.9800
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 623553
Question: Will Roland Lescure be the next Prime Minister of France?
Volume: 16856.972185
Price History:
2025-10-09 09:00: 0.9220
2025-10-09 10:00: 0.0545
2025-10-09 10:00: 0.9455
2025-10-09 11:00: 0.9450
2025-10-09 11:00: 0.0550
2025-10-09 12:00: 0.9425
2025-10-09 12:00: 0.0575
2025-10-09 13:00: 0.9415
2025-10-09 13:00: 0.0585
2025-10-09 14:00: 0.0545
2025-10-09 14:00: 0.9455
2025-10-09 15:00: 0.0650
2025-10-09 15:00: 0.9350
2025-10-09 16:00: 0.0545
2025-10-09 16:00: 0.9455
Trade Summary: Total trades: 23, Buy volume: 326.39, Sell volume: 48.91, Average price: 0.8019, Price range: 0.0110 - 0.9960
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 623553
Question: Will Roland Lescure be the next Prime Minister of France?
Volume: 16856.972185
Price History:
2025-10-09 17:00: 0.9460
2025-10-09 17:00: 0.0540
2025-10-09 18:00: 0.0265
2025-10-09 18:00: 0.9735
2025-10-09 19:00: 0.0615
2025-10-09 19:00: 0.9385
2025-10-09 20:00: 0.0630
2025-10-09 20:00: 0.9370
2025-10-09 21:00: 0.0615
2025-10-09 21:00: 0.9385
2025-10-09 22:00: 0.9375
2025-10-09 22:00: 0.0625
2025-10-09 23:00: 0.0630
2025-10-09 23:00: 0.9370
2025-10-10 00:00: 0.9375
Trade Summary: Total trades: 6, Buy volume: 20.00, Sell volume: 145.03, Average price: 0.1728, Price range: 0.0040 - 0.9960
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 623553
Question: Will Roland Lescure be the next Prime Minister of France?
Volume: 16856.972185
Price History:
2025-10-10 00:00: 0.0625
2025-10-10 01:00: 0.8985
2025-10-10 01:00: 0.1015
2025-10-10 02:00: 0.8905
2025-10-10 02:00: 0.1095
2025-10-10 03:00: 0.0320
2025-10-10 03:00: 0.9680
2025-10-10 04:00: 0.0685
2025-10-10 04:00: 0.9315
2025-10-10 05:00: 0.9420
2025-10-10 05:00: 0.0580
2025-10-10 06:00: 0.9540
2025-10-10 06:00: 0.0460
2025-10-10 07:00: 0.0395
2025-10-10 07:00: 0.9605
Trade Summary: Total trades: 24, Buy volume: 314.65, Sell volume: 35.96, Average price: 0.9087, Price range: 0.0040 - 0.9970
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 623553
Question: Will Roland Lescure be the next Prime Minister of France?
Volume: 16856.972185
Price History:
2025-10-10 08:00: 0.9705
2025-10-10 08:00: 0.0295
2025-10-10 09:00: 0.0030
2025-10-10 09:00: 0.9970
2025-10-10 10:00: 0.9975
2025-10-10 10:00: 0.0025
2025-10-10 11:00: 0.9970
2025-10-10 11:00: 0.0030
2025-10-10 12:00: 0.0110
2025-10-10 12:00: 0.9890
2025-10-10 13:00: 0.9165
2025-10-10 13:00: 0.0835
2025-10-10 14:00: 0.9165
2025-10-10 14:00: 0.0835
2025-10-10 15:00: 0.9165
Trade Summary: Total trades: 50, Buy volume: 1535.51, Sell volume: 287.49, Average price: 0.6796, Price range: 0.0020 - 0.9980
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 623555
Question: Will Gabriel Attal be the next Prime Minister of France?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 27819.033283
Price History:
2025-10-06 14:00: 0.4900
2025-10-06 14:00: 0.5100
2025-10-06 15:00: 0.0600
2025-10-06 15:00: 0.9400
2025-10-06 16:00: 0.0300
2025-10-06 16:00: 0.9700
2025-10-06 17:00: 0.9725
2025-10-06 17:00: 0.0275
2025-10-06 18:00: 0.0230
2025-10-06 18:00: 0.9770
2025-10-06 19:00: 0.9770
2025-10-06 19:00: 0.0230
2025-10-06 20:00: 0.9900
2025-10-06 20:00: 0.0100
2025-10-06 21:00: 0.9900
Trade Summary: Total trades: 15, Buy volume: 90.05, Sell volume: 9.94, Average price: 0.9256, Price range: 0.0060 - 0.9940

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 623555
Question: Will Gabriel Attal be the next Prime Minister of France?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 27819.033283
Price History:
2025-10-06 21:00: 0.0100
2025-10-06 22:00: 0.0100
2025-10-06 22:00: 0.9900
2025-10-06 23:00: 0.9900
2025-10-06 23:00: 0.0100
2025-10-07 00:00: 0.0100
2025-10-07 00:00: 0.9900
2025-10-07 01:00: 0.0095
2025-10-07 01:00: 0.9905
2025-10-07 02:00: 0.0095
2025-10-07 02:00: 0.9905
2025-10-07 03:00: 0.9905
2025-10-07 03:00: 0.0095
2025-10-07 04:00: 0.9970
2025-10-07 04:00: 0.0030
Trade Summary: Total trades: 6, Buy volume: 43.89, Sell volume: 6.10, Average price: 0.8300, Price range: 0.0050 - 0.9950

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 623555
Question: Will Gabriel Attal be the next Prime Minister of France?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 27819.033283
Price History:
2025-10-07 05:00: 0.9970
2025-10-07 05:00: 0.0030
2025-10-07 06:00: 0.9970
2025-10-07 06:00: 0.0030
2025-10-07 07:00: 0.9970
2025-10-07 07:00: 0.0030
2025-10-07 08:00: 0.0030
2025-10-07 08:00: 0.9970
2025-10-07 09:00: 0.0030
2025-10-07 09:00: 0.9970
2025-10-07 10:00: 0.9970
2025-10-07 10:00: 0.0030
2025-10-07 11:00: 0.9970
2025-10-07 11:00: 0.0030
2025-10-07 12:00: 0.0075
Trade Summary: Total trades: 26, Buy volume: 380.09, Sell volume: 52.04, Average price: 0.6909, Price range: 0.0020 - 0.9980

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 623555
Question: Will Gabriel Attal be the next Prime Minister of France?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 27819.033283
Price History:
2025-10-07 12:00: 0.9925
2025-10-07 13:00: 0.9955
2025-10-07 13:00: 0.0045
2025-10-07 14:00: 0.9955
2025-10-07 14:00: 0.0045
2025-10-07 15:00: 0.9955
2025-10-07 15:00: 0.0045
2025-10-07 16:00: 0.0045
2025-10-07 16:00: 0.9955
2025-10-07 17:00: 0.0045
2025-10-07 17:00: 0.9955
2025-10-07 18:00: 0.0045
2025-10-07 18:00: 0.9955
2025-10-07 19:00: 0.9955
2025-10-07 19:00: 0.0045
Trade Summary: Total trades: 37, Buy volume: 2006.43, Sell volume: 1607.88, Average price: 0.7545, Price range: 0.0040 - 0.9960

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 623555
Question: Will Gabriel Attal be the next Prime Minister of France?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 27819.033283
Price History:
2025-10-07 20:00: 0.9955
2025-10-07 20:00: 0.0045
2025-10-07 21:00: 0.9955
2025-10-07 21:00: 0.0045
2025-10-07 22:00: 0.9955
2025-10-07 22:00: 0.0045
2025-10-07 23:00: 0.0045
2025-10-07 23:00: 0.9955
2025-10-08 00:00: 0.0045
2025-10-08 00:00: 0.9955
2025-10-08 01:00: 0.9955
2025-10-08 01:00: 0.0045
2025-10-08 02:00: 0.9955
2025-10-08 02:00: 0.0045
2025-10-08 03:00: 0.9955
Trade Summary: Total trades: 312, Buy volume: 14419.77, Sell volume: 13399.26, Average price: 0.7611, Price range: 0.0010 - 0.9990

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 623555
Question: Will Gabriel Attal be the next Prime Minister of France?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 27819.033283
Price History:
2025-10-08 03:00: 0.0045
2025-10-08 04:00: 0.0035
2025-10-08 04:00: 0.9965
2025-10-08 05:00: 0.0035
2025-10-08 05:00: 0.9965
2025-10-08 06:00: 0.0035
2025-10-08 06:00: 0.9965
2025-10-08 07:00: 0.9965
2025-10-08 07:00: 0.0035
2025-10-08 08:00: 0.9965
2025-10-08 08:00: 0.0035
2025-10-08 09:00: 0.0035
2025-10-08 09:00: 0.9965
2025-10-08 10:00: 0.0035
2025-10-08 10:00: 0.9965
Trade Summary: Total trades: 7, Buy volume: 45.79, Sell volume: 17.79, Average price: 0.5711, Price range: 0.0020 - 0.9980

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 623555
Question: Will Gabriel Attal be the next Prime Minister of France?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 27819.033283
Price History:
2025-10-08 11:00: 0.0025
2025-10-08 11:00: 0.9975
2025-10-08 12:00: 0.9980
2025-10-08 12:00: 0.0020
2025-10-08 13:00: 0.0015
2025-10-08 13:00: 0.9985
2025-10-08 14:00: 0.9965
2025-10-08 14:00: 0.0035
2025-10-08 15:00: 0.9970
2025-10-08 15:00: 0.0030
2025-10-08 16:00: 0.9970
2025-10-08 16:00: 0.0030
2025-10-08 17:00: 0.0030
2025-10-08 17:00: 0.9970
2025-10-08 18:00: 0.9970
Trade Summary: Total trades: 23, Buy volume: 1058.79, Sell volume: 630.54, Average price: 0.8681, Price range: 0.0014 - 0.9990

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 623555
Question: Will Gabriel Attal be the next Prime Minister of France?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 27819.033283
Price History:
2025-10-08 18:00: 0.0030
2025-10-08 19:00: 0.9970
2025-10-08 19:00: 0.0030
2025-10-08 20:00: 0.9975
2025-10-08 20:00: 0.0025
2025-10-08 21:00: 0.0030
2025-10-08 21:00: 0.9970
2025-10-08 22:00: 0.9970
2025-10-08 22:00: 0.0030
2025-10-08 23:00: 0.9970
2025-10-08 23:00: 0.0030
2025-10-09 00:00: 0.0025
2025-10-09 00:00: 0.9975
2025-10-09 01:00: 0.9975
2025-10-09 01:00: 0.0025
Trade Summary: Total trades: 20, Buy volume: 444.09, Sell volume: 12.97, Average price: 0.8489, Price range: 0.0020 - 0.9990

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 623555
Question: Will Gabriel Attal be the next Prime Minister of France?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 27819.033283
Price History:
2025-10-09 02:00: 0.9975
2025-10-09 02:00: 0.0025
2025-10-09 03:00: 0.0025
2025-10-09 03:00: 0.9975
2025-10-09 04:00: 0.9975
2025-10-09 04:00: 0.0025
2025-10-09 05:00: 0.0025
2025-10-09 05:00: 0.9975
2025-10-09 06:00: 0.0025
2025-10-09 06:00: 0.9975
2025-10-09 07:00: 0.0025
2025-10-09 07:00: 0.9975
2025-10-09 08:00: 0.0035
2025-10-09 08:00: 0.9965
2025-10-09 09:00: 0.0035
Trade Summary: Total trades: 19, Buy volume: 1005.85, Sell volume: 131.04, Average price: 0.8409, Price range: 0.0020 - 0.9990

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 623555
Question: Will Gabriel Attal be the next Prime Minister of France?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 27819.033283
Price History:
2025-10-09 09:00: 0.9965
2025-10-09 10:00: 0.0035
2025-10-09 10:00: 0.9965
2025-10-09 11:00: 0.9970
2025-10-09 11:00: 0.0030
2025-10-09 12:00: 0.9970
2025-10-09 12:00: 0.0030
2025-10-09 13:00: 0.0030
2025-10-09 13:00: 0.9970
2025-10-09 14:00: 0.0030
2025-10-09 14:00: 0.9970
2025-10-09 15:00: 0.0030
2025-10-09 15:00: 0.9970
2025-10-09 16:00: 0.0030
2025-10-09 16:00: 0.9970
Trade Summary: Total trades: 20, Buy volume: 489.90, Sell volume: 26.64, Average price: 0.7994, Price range: 0.0010 - 0.9990

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 623555
Question: Will Gabriel Attal be the next Prime Minister of France?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 27819.033283
Price History:
2025-10-09 17:00: 0.9970
2025-10-09 17:00: 0.0030
2025-10-09 18:00: 0.0030
2025-10-09 18:00: 0.9970
2025-10-09 19:00: 0.0025
2025-10-09 19:00: 0.9975
2025-10-09 20:00: 0.0030
2025-10-09 20:00: 0.9970
2025-10-09 21:00: 0.0030
2025-10-09 21:00: 0.9970
2025-10-09 22:00: 0.0025
2025-10-09 22:00: 0.9975
2025-10-09 23:00: 0.0025
2025-10-09 23:00: 0.9975
2025-10-10 00:00: 0.9975
Trade Summary: Total trades: 8, Buy volume: 40.04, Sell volume: 86.30, Average price: 0.3754, Price range: 0.0020 - 0.9980

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 623555
Question: Will Gabriel Attal be the next Prime Minister of France?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 27819.033283
Price History:
2025-10-10 00:00: 0.0025
2025-10-10 01:00: 0.0025
2025-10-10 01:00: 0.9975
2025-10-10 02:00: 0.9975
2025-10-10 02:00: 0.0025
2025-10-10 03:00: 0.0025
2025-10-10 03:00: 0.9975
2025-10-10 04:00: 0.0025
2025-10-10 04:00: 0.9975
2025-10-10 05:00: 0.9970
2025-10-10 05:00: 0.0030
2025-10-10 06:00: 0.9975
2025-10-10 06:00: 0.0025
2025-10-10 07:00: 0.9975
2025-10-10 07:00: 0.0025
Trade Summary: Total trades: 25, Buy volume: 421.93, Sell volume: 141.96, Average price: 0.9183, Price range: 0.0020 - 0.9980

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 623555
Question: Will Gabriel Attal be the next Prime Minister of France?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 27819.033283
Price History:
2025-10-10 08:00: 0.9835
2025-10-10 08:00: 0.0165
2025-10-10 09:00: 0.9850
2025-10-10 09:00: 0.0150
2025-10-10 10:00: 0.9815
2025-10-10 10:00: 0.0185
2025-10-10 11:00: 0.9895
2025-10-10 11:00: 0.0105
2025-10-10 12:00: 0.9890
2025-10-10 12:00: 0.0110
2025-10-10 13:00: 0.0105
2025-10-10 13:00: 0.9895
2025-10-10 14:00: 0.0020
2025-10-10 14:00: 0.9980
2025-10-10 15:00: 0.0020
Trade Summary: Total trades: 59, Buy volume: 1290.82, Sell volume: 1869.33, Average price: 0.6935, Price range: 0.0011 - 0.9980

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 623555
Question: Will Gabriel Attal be the next Prime Minister of France?
Volume: 27819.033283
Price History:
2025-10-06 14:00: 0.4900
2025-10-06 14:00: 0.5100
2025-10-06 15:00: 0.0600
2025-10-06 15:00: 0.9400
2025-10-06 16:00: 0.0300
2025-10-06 16:00: 0.9700
2025-10-06 17:00: 0.9725
2025-10-06 17:00: 0.0275
2025-10-06 18:00: 0.0230
2025-10-06 18:00: 0.9770
2025-10-06 19:00: 0.9770
2025-10-06 19:00: 0.0230
2025-10-06 20:00: 0.9900
2025-10-06 20:00: 0.0100
2025-10-06 21:00: 0.9900
Trade Summary: Total trades: 15, Buy volume: 90.05, Sell volume: 9.94, Average price: 0.9256, Price range: 0.0060 - 0.9940
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 623555
Question: Will Gabriel Attal be the next Prime Minister of France?
Volume: 27819.033283
Price History:
2025-10-06 21:00: 0.0100
2025-10-06 22:00: 0.0100
2025-10-06 22:00: 0.9900
2025-10-06 23:00: 0.9900
2025-10-06 23:00: 0.0100
2025-10-07 00:00: 0.0100
2025-10-07 00:00: 0.9900
2025-10-07 01:00: 0.0095
2025-10-07 01:00: 0.9905
2025-10-07 02:00: 0.0095
2025-10-07 02:00: 0.9905
2025-10-07 03:00: 0.9905
2025-10-07 03:00: 0.0095
2025-10-07 04:00: 0.9970
2025-10-07 04:00: 0.0030
Trade Summary: Total trades: 6, Buy volume: 43.89, Sell volume: 6.10, Average price: 0.8300, Price range: 0.0050 - 0.9950
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 623555
Question: Will Gabriel Attal be the next Prime Minister of France?
Volume: 27819.033283
Price History:
2025-10-07 05:00: 0.9970
2025-10-07 05:00: 0.0030
2025-10-07 06:00: 0.9970
2025-10-07 06:00: 0.0030
2025-10-07 07:00: 0.9970
2025-10-07 07:00: 0.0030
2025-10-07 08:00: 0.0030
2025-10-07 08:00: 0.9970
2025-10-07 09:00: 0.0030
2025-10-07 09:00: 0.9970
2025-10-07 10:00: 0.9970
2025-10-07 10:00: 0.0030
2025-10-07 11:00: 0.9970
2025-10-07 11:00: 0.0030
2025-10-07 12:00: 0.0075
Trade Summary: Total trades: 26, Buy volume: 380.09, Sell volume: 52.04, Average price: 0.6909, Price range: 0.0020 - 0.9980
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 623555
Question: Will Gabriel Attal be the next Prime Minister of France?
Volume: 27819.033283
Price History:
2025-10-07 12:00: 0.9925
2025-10-07 13:00: 0.9955
2025-10-07 13:00: 0.0045
2025-10-07 14:00: 0.9955
2025-10-07 14:00: 0.0045
2025-10-07 15:00: 0.9955
2025-10-07 15:00: 0.0045
2025-10-07 16:00: 0.0045
2025-10-07 16:00: 0.9955
2025-10-07 17:00: 0.0045
2025-10-07 17:00: 0.9955
2025-10-07 18:00: 0.0045
2025-10-07 18:00: 0.9955
2025-10-07 19:00: 0.9955
2025-10-07 19:00: 0.0045
Trade Summary: Total trades: 37, Buy volume: 2006.43, Sell volume: 1607.88, Average price: 0.7545, Price range: 0.0040 - 0.9960
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike, wash_trading

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 623555
Question: Will Gabriel Attal be the next Prime Minister of France?
Volume: 27819.033283
Price History:
2025-10-07 20:00: 0.9955
2025-10-07 20:00: 0.0045
2025-10-07 21:00: 0.9955
2025-10-07 21:00: 0.0045
2025-10-07 22:00: 0.9955
2025-10-07 22:00: 0.0045
2025-10-07 23:00: 0.0045
2025-10-07 23:00: 0.9955
2025-10-08 00:00: 0.0045
2025-10-08 00:00: 0.9955
2025-10-08 01:00: 0.9955
2025-10-08 01:00: 0.0045
2025-10-08 02:00: 0.9955
2025-10-08 02:00: 0.0045
2025-10-08 03:00: 0.9955
Trade Summary: Total trades: 312, Buy volume: 14419.77, Sell volume: 13399.26, Average price: 0.7611, Price range: 0.0010 - 0.9990
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike, wash_trading

Output: Yes