Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 569422
Question: Gintautas Paluckas out as Lithuania prime minister by December 31?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 8463.517395
Price History:
2025-07-31 00:00: 0.8750
2025-07-31 00:00: 0.1250
2025-07-31 01:00: 0.8750
2025-07-31 01:00: 0.1250
2025-07-31 02:00: 0.8750
2025-07-31 02:00: 0.1250
2025-07-31 03:00: 0.8950
2025-07-31 03:00: 0.1050
2025-07-31 04:00: 0.9550
2025-07-31 04:00: 0.0450
Trade Summary: Total trades: 13, Buy volume: 2525.10, Sell volume: 0.00, Average price: 0.8828, Price range: 0.1300 - 0.9800

Output: No


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 569422
Question: Gintautas Paluckas out as Lithuania prime minister by December 31?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 8463.517395
Price History:
2025-07-31 05:00: 0.9945
2025-07-31 05:00: 0.0055
2025-07-31 06:00: 0.9945
2025-07-31 06:00: 0.0055
2025-07-31 07:00: 0.9945
2025-07-31 07:00: 0.0055
2025-07-31 08:00: 0.9950
2025-07-31 08:00: 0.0050
2025-07-31 09:00: 0.9950
2025-07-31 09:00: 0.0050
Trade Summary: Total trades: 2, Buy volume: 683.40, Sell volume: 1982.24, Average price: 0.9945, Price range: 0.9900 - 0.9989

Output: No


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 569422
Question: Gintautas Paluckas out as Lithuania prime minister by December 31?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 8463.517395
Price History:
2025-07-31 05:00: 0.9945
2025-07-31 05:00: 0.0055
2025-07-31 06:00: 0.9945
2025-07-31 06:00: 0.0055
2025-07-31 07:00: 0.9945
2025-07-31 07:00: 0.0055
2025-07-31 08:00: 0.9950
2025-07-31 08:00: 0.0050
2025-07-31 09:00: 0.9950
2025-07-31 09:00: 0.0050
Trade Summary: Total trades: 2, Buy volume: 683.40, Sell volume: 1982.24, Average price: 0.9945, Price range: 0.9900 - 0.9989

Output: No


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 569422
Question: Gintautas Paluckas out as Lithuania prime minister by December 31?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 8463.517395
Price History:
2025-07-31 05:00: 0.9945
2025-07-31 05:00: 0.0055
2025-07-31 06:00: 0.9945
2025-07-31 06:00: 0.0055
2025-07-31 07:00: 0.9945
2025-07-31 07:00: 0.0055
2025-07-31 08:00: 0.9950
2025-07-31 08:00: 0.0050
2025-07-31 09:00: 0.9950
2025-07-31 09:00: 0.0050
Trade Summary: Total trades: 2, Buy volume: 683.40, Sell volume: 1982.24, Average price: 0.9945, Price range: 0.9900 - 0.9989

Output: No


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 569422
Question: Gintautas Paluckas out as Lithuania prime minister by December 31?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 8463.517395
Price History:
2025-07-31 05:00: 0.9945
2025-07-31 05:00: 0.0055
2025-07-31 06:00: 0.9945
2025-07-31 06:00: 0.0055
2025-07-31 07:00: 0.9945
2025-07-31 07:00: 0.0055
2025-07-31 08:00: 0.9950
2025-07-31 08:00: 0.0050
2025-07-31 09:00: 0.9950
2025-07-31 09:00: 0.0050
Trade Summary: Total trades: 2, Buy volume: 683.40, Sell volume: 1982.24, Average price: 0.9945, Price range: 0.9900 - 0.9989

Output: No


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 569422
Question: Gintautas Paluckas out as Lithuania prime minister by December 31?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 8463.517395
Price History:
2025-07-31 05:00: 0.9945
2025-07-31 05:00: 0.0055
2025-07-31 06:00: 0.9945
2025-07-31 06:00: 0.0055
2025-07-31 07:00: 0.9945
2025-07-31 07:00: 0.0055
2025-07-31 08:00: 0.9950
2025-07-31 08:00: 0.0050
2025-07-31 09:00: 0.9950
2025-07-31 09:00: 0.0050
Trade Summary: Total trades: 2, Buy volume: 683.40, Sell volume: 1982.24, Average price: 0.9945, Price range: 0.9900 - 0.9989

Output: No


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 569422
Question: Gintautas Paluckas out as Lithuania prime minister by December 31?
Volume: 8463.517395
Price History:
2025-07-29 13:00: 0.3600
2025-07-29 13:00: 0.6400
2025-07-29 14:00: 0.3350
2025-07-29 14:00: 0.6650
2025-07-29 15:00: 0.5200
2025-07-29 15:00: 0.4800
2025-07-29 16:00: 0.5450
2025-07-29 16:00: 0.4550
2025-07-29 17:00: 0.5700
2025-07-29 17:00: 0.4300
Trade Summary: Total trades: 7, Buy volume: 245.60, Sell volume: 98.97, Average price: 0.5309, Price range: 0.4100 - 0.6000
Manipulation Indicators Detected: None

Output: No


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 569422
Question: Gintautas Paluckas out as Lithuania prime minister by December 31?
Volume: 8463.517395
Price History:
2025-07-29 18:00: 0.5700
2025-07-29 18:00: 0.4300
2025-07-29 19:00: 0.5900
2025-07-29 19:00: 0.4100
2025-07-29 20:00: 0.6250
2025-07-29 20:00: 0.3750
2025-07-29 21:00: 0.6250
2025-07-29 21:00: 0.3750
2025-07-29 22:00: 0.6300
2025-07-29 22:00: 0.3700
Trade Summary: Total trades: 4, Buy volume: 284.97, Sell volume: 0.28, Average price: 0.5351, Price range: 0.3300 - 0.6105
Manipulation Indicators Detected: None

Output: No


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 569422
Question: Gintautas Paluckas out as Lithuania prime minister by December 31?
Volume: 8463.517395
Price History:
2025-07-29 23:00: 0.6300
2025-07-29 23:00: 0.3700
2025-07-30 00:00: 0.6300
2025-07-30 00:00: 0.3700
2025-07-30 01:00: 0.6300
2025-07-30 01:00: 0.3700
2025-07-30 02:00: 0.6350
2025-07-30 02:00: 0.3650
2025-07-30 03:00: 0.6400
2025-07-30 03:00: 0.3600
Trade Summary: Total trades: 1, Buy volume: 1.49, Sell volume: 0.00, Average price: 0.6700, Price range: 0.6700 - 0.6700
Manipulation Indicators Detected: None

Output: No


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 569422
Question: Gintautas Paluckas out as Lithuania prime minister by December 31?
Volume: 8463.517395
Price History:
2025-07-30 04:00: 0.8150
2025-07-30 04:00: 0.1850
2025-07-30 05:00: 0.8050
2025-07-30 05:00: 0.1950
2025-07-30 06:00: 0.8750
2025-07-30 06:00: 0.1250
2025-07-30 07:00: 0.8750
2025-07-30 07:00: 0.1250
2025-07-30 08:00: 0.8750
2025-07-30 08:00: 0.1250
Trade Summary: Total trades: 39, Buy volume: 6382.03, Sell volume: 2081.49, Average price: 0.7409, Price range: 0.0100 - 0.9989
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 569422
Question: Gintautas Paluckas out as Lithuania prime minister by December 31?
Volume: 8463.517395
Price History:
2025-07-30 09:00: 0.8750
2025-07-30 09:00: 0.1250
2025-07-30 10:00: 0.8750
2025-07-30 10:00: 0.1250
2025-07-30 11:00: 0.8750
2025-07-30 11:00: 0.1250
2025-07-30 12:00: 0.8750
2025-07-30 12:00: 0.1250
2025-07-30 13:00: 0.8750
2025-07-30 13:00: 0.1250
Trade Summary: Total trades: 1, Buy volume: 10.00, Sell volume: 0.00, Average price: 0.9000, Price range: 0.9000 - 0.9000
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 569422
Question: Gintautas Paluckas out as Lithuania prime minister by December 31?
Volume: 8463.517395
Price History:
2025-07-30 14:00: 0.8750
2025-07-30 14:00: 0.1250
2025-07-30 15:00: 0.8750
2025-07-30 15:00: 0.1250
2025-07-30 16:00: 0.8750
2025-07-30 16:00: 0.1250
2025-07-30 17:00: 0.8750
2025-07-30 17:00: 0.1250
2025-07-30 18:00: 0.8750
2025-07-30 18:00: 0.1250
Trade Summary: Total trades: 1, Buy volume: 6.67, Sell volume: 0.00, Average price: 0.1500, Price range: 0.1500 - 0.1500
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 569422
Question: Gintautas Paluckas out as Lithuania prime minister by December 31?
Volume: 8463.517395
Price History:
2025-07-30 19:00: 0.8750
2025-07-30 19:00: 0.1250
2025-07-30 20:00: 0.8750
2025-07-30 20:00: 0.1250
2025-07-30 21:00: 0.8750
2025-07-30 21:00: 0.1250
2025-07-30 22:00: 0.8750
2025-07-30 22:00: 0.1250
2025-07-30 23:00: 0.8750
2025-07-30 23:00: 0.1250
Trade Summary: Total trades: 39, Buy volume: 6382.03, Sell volume: 2081.49, Average price: 0.7409, Price range: 0.0100 - 0.9989
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 569422
Question: Gintautas Paluckas out as Lithuania prime minister by December 31?
Volume: 8463.517395
Price History:
2025-07-31 00:00: 0.8750
2025-07-31 00:00: 0.1250
2025-07-31 01:00: 0.8750
2025-07-31 01:00: 0.1250
2025-07-31 02:00: 0.8750
2025-07-31 02:00: 0.1250
2025-07-31 03:00: 0.8950
2025-07-31 03:00: 0.1050
2025-07-31 04:00: 0.9550
2025-07-31 04:00: 0.0450
Trade Summary: Total trades: 13, Buy volume: 2525.10, Sell volume: 0.00, Average price: 0.8828, Price range: 0.1300 - 0.9800
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 569422
Question: Gintautas Paluckas out as Lithuania prime minister by December 31?
Volume: 8463.517395
Price History:
2025-07-31 05:00: 0.9945
2025-07-31 05:00: 0.0055
2025-07-31 06:00: 0.9945
2025-07-31 06:00: 0.0055
2025-07-31 07:00: 0.9945
2025-07-31 07:00: 0.0055
2025-07-31 08:00: 0.9950
2025-07-31 08:00: 0.0050
2025-07-31 09:00: 0.9950
2025-07-31 09:00: 0.0050
Trade Summary: Total trades: 2, Buy volume: 683.40, Sell volume: 1982.24, Average price: 0.9945, Price range: 0.9900 - 0.9989
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 569422
Question: Gintautas Paluckas out as Lithuania prime minister by December 31?
Volume: 8463.517395
Price History:
2025-07-31 05:00: 0.9945
2025-07-31 05:00: 0.0055
2025-07-31 06:00: 0.9945
2025-07-31 06:00: 0.0055
2025-07-31 07:00: 0.9945
2025-07-31 07:00: 0.0055
2025-07-31 08:00: 0.9950
2025-07-31 08:00: 0.0050
2025-07-31 09:00: 0.9950
2025-07-31 09:00: 0.0050
Trade Summary: Total trades: 2, Buy volume: 683.40, Sell volume: 1982.24, Average price: 0.9945, Price range: 0.9900 - 0.9989
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 569422
Question: Gintautas Paluckas out as Lithuania prime minister by December 31?
Volume: 8463.517395
Price History:
2025-07-31 05:00: 0.9945
2025-07-31 05:00: 0.0055
2025-07-31 06:00: 0.9945
2025-07-31 06:00: 0.0055
2025-07-31 07:00: 0.9945
2025-07-31 07:00: 0.0055
2025-07-31 08:00: 0.9950
2025-07-31 08:00: 0.0050
2025-07-31 09:00: 0.9950
2025-07-31 09:00: 0.0050
Trade Summary: Total trades: 2, Buy volume: 683.40, Sell volume: 1982.24, Average price: 0.9945, Price range: 0.9900 - 0.9989
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 569422
Question: Gintautas Paluckas out as Lithuania prime minister by December 31?
Volume: 8463.517395
Price History:
2025-07-31 05:00: 0.9945
2025-07-31 05:00: 0.0055
2025-07-31 06:00: 0.9945
2025-07-31 06:00: 0.0055
2025-07-31 07:00: 0.9945
2025-07-31 07:00: 0.0055
2025-07-31 08:00: 0.9950
2025-07-31 08:00: 0.0050
2025-07-31 09:00: 0.9950
2025-07-31 09:00: 0.0050
Trade Summary: Total trades: 2, Buy volume: 683.40, Sell volume: 1982.24, Average price: 0.9945, Price range: 0.9900 - 0.9989
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 569422
Question: Gintautas Paluckas out as Lithuania prime minister by December 31?
Volume: 8463.517395
Price History:
2025-07-31 05:00: 0.9945
2025-07-31 05:00: 0.0055
2025-07-31 06:00: 0.9945
2025-07-31 06:00: 0.0055
2025-07-31 07:00: 0.9945
2025-07-31 07:00: 0.0055
2025-07-31 08:00: 0.9950
2025-07-31 08:00: 0.0050
2025-07-31 09:00: 0.9950
2025-07-31 09:00: 0.0050
Trade Summary: Total trades: 2, Buy volume: 683.40, Sell volume: 1982.24, Average price: 0.9945, Price range: 0.9900 - 0.9989
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 515797
Question: Will Robert Habeck be the next Chancellor of Germany?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 4469233.969956
Price History:
2024-12-16 16:00: 0.0900
2024-12-16 21:00: 0.0330
2024-12-17 02:00: 0.0260
2024-12-17 07:00: 0.0255
2024-12-17 12:00: 0.0280
2024-12-17 17:00: 0.0245
2024-12-17 22:00: 0.0235
2024-12-18 03:00: 0.0250
2024-12-18 08:00: 0.0260
2024-12-18 13:00: 0.0225
2024-12-18 18:00: 0.0220
2024-12-18 23:00: 0.0220
2024-12-19 04:00: 0.0240
2024-12-19 09:00: 0.0220
2024-12-19 14:00: 0.0250
2024-12-19 19:00: 0.0225
2024-12-20 00:00: 0.0225
2024-12-20 05:00: 0.0190
2024-12-20 10:00: 0.0175
2024-12-20 15:00: 0.0160
2024-12-20 20:00: 0.0135
2024-12-21 01:00: 0.0125
2024-12-21 06:00: 0.0140
2024-12-21 11:00: 0.0150
2024-12-21 16:00: 0.0165
2024-12-21 21:00: 0.0175
2024-12-22 02:00: 0.0160
2024-12-22 07:00: 0.0170
2024-12-22 12:00: 0.0145
2024-12-22 17:00: 0.0155
2024-12-22 22:00: 0.0105
2024-12-23 03:00: 0.0100
2024-12-23 08:00: 0.0075
2024-12-23 13:00: 0.0095
2024-12-23 18:00: 0.0140
2024-12-23 23:00: 0.0110
2024-12-24 04:00: 0.0185
2024-12-24 09:00: 0.0175
2024-12-24 14:00: 0.0155
2024-12-24 19:00: 0.0145
2024-12-25 00:00: 0.0140
2024-12-25 05:00: 0.0125
2024-12-25 10:00: 0.0120
2024-12-25 15:00: 0.0145
2024-12-25 20:00: 0.0155
2024-12-26 01:00: 0.0165
2024-12-26 06:00: 0.0115
2024-12-26 11:00: 0.0145
2024-12-26 16:00: 0.0135
2024-12-26 21:00: 0.0140
Trade Summary: Total trades: 1000000, Buy volume: 137632216.93, Sell volume: 76013085.59, Average price: 0.6624, Price range: 0.0010 - 0.9990

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 515797
Question: Will Robert Habeck be the next Chancellor of Germany?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 4469233.969956
Price History:
2024-12-27 12:00: 0.0130
2024-12-27 17:00: 0.0125
2024-12-27 22:00: 0.0130
2024-12-28 03:00: 0.0130
2024-12-28 08:00: 0.0130
2024-12-28 13:00: 0.0130
2024-12-28 18:00: 0.0130
2024-12-28 23:00: 0.0130
2024-12-29 04:00: 0.0135
2024-12-29 09:00: 0.0135
2024-12-29 14:00: 0.0130
2024-12-29 19:00: 0.0090
2024-12-30 00:00: 0.0095
2024-12-30 05:00: 0.0080
2024-12-30 10:00: 0.0100
2024-12-30 15:00: 0.0095
2024-12-30 20:00: 0.0085
2024-12-31 01:00: 0.0085
2024-12-31 06:00: 0.0085
2024-12-31 11:00: 0.0080
2024-12-31 16:00: 0.0075
2024-12-31 21:00: 0.0075
2025-01-01 02:00: 0.0075
2025-01-01 07:00: 0.0065
2025-01-01 12:00: 0.0055
2025-01-01 17:00: 0.0055
2025-01-01 22:00: 0.0060
2025-01-02 03:00: 0.0065
2025-01-02 08:00: 0.0065
2025-01-02 13:00: 0.0055
2025-01-02 18:00: 0.0055
2025-01-02 23:00: 0.0055
2025-01-03 04:00: 0.0055
2025-01-03 09:00: 0.0055
2025-01-03 14:00: 0.0060
2025-01-03 19:00: 0.0070
2025-01-04 00:00: 0.0100
2025-01-04 05:00: 0.0105
2025-01-04 10:00: 0.0080
2025-01-04 15:00: 0.0070
2025-01-04 20:00: 0.0070
2025-01-05 01:00: 0.0075
2025-01-05 06:00: 0.0075
2025-01-05 11:00: 0.0070
2025-01-05 16:00: 0.0075
2025-01-05 21:00: 0.0055
2025-01-06 02:00: 0.0055
2025-01-06 07:00: 0.0065
2025-01-06 12:00: 0.0055
2025-01-06 17:00: 0.0055
Trade Summary: Total trades: 1000000, Buy volume: 137632216.93, Sell volume: 76013085.59, Average price: 0.6624, Price range: 0.0010 - 0.9990

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 515797
Question: Will Robert Habeck be the next Chancellor of Germany?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 4469233.969956
Price History:
2025-01-07 08:00: 0.0055
2025-01-07 13:00: 0.0055
2025-01-07 18:00: 0.0055
2025-01-07 23:00: 0.0060
2025-01-08 04:00: 0.0065
2025-01-08 09:00: 0.0065
2025-01-08 14:00: 0.0060
2025-01-08 19:00: 0.0060
2025-01-09 00:00: 0.0055
2025-01-09 05:00: 0.0065
2025-01-09 10:00: 0.0065
2025-01-09 15:00: 0.0065
2025-01-09 20:00: 0.0065
2025-01-10 01:00: 0.0070
2025-01-10 06:00: 0.0085
2025-01-10 11:00: 0.0085
2025-01-10 16:00: 0.0135
2025-01-10 21:00: 0.0135
2025-01-11 02:00: 0.0135
2025-01-11 07:00: 0.0120
2025-01-11 12:00: 0.0095
2025-01-11 17:00: 0.0130
2025-01-11 22:00: 0.0120
2025-01-12 03:00: 0.0120
2025-01-12 08:00: 0.0120
2025-01-12 13:00: 0.0130
2025-01-12 18:00: 0.0125
2025-01-12 23:00: 0.0130
2025-01-13 04:00: 0.0125
2025-01-13 09:00: 0.0125
2025-01-13 14:00: 0.0145
2025-01-13 19:00: 0.0145
2025-01-14 00:00: 0.0145
2025-01-14 05:00: 0.0130
2025-01-14 10:00: 0.0130
2025-01-14 15:00: 0.0160
2025-01-14 20:00: 0.0200
2025-01-15 01:00: 0.0200
2025-01-15 06:00: 0.0180
2025-01-15 11:00: 0.0185
2025-01-15 16:00: 0.0215
2025-01-15 21:00: 0.0215
2025-01-16 02:00: 0.0215
2025-01-16 07:00: 0.0215
2025-01-16 12:00: 0.0215
2025-01-16 17:00: 0.0210
2025-01-16 22:00: 0.0210
2025-01-17 03:00: 0.0210
2025-01-17 08:00: 0.0200
2025-01-17 13:00: 0.0195
Trade Summary: Total trades: 1000000, Buy volume: 137632216.93, Sell volume: 76013085.59, Average price: 0.6624, Price range: 0.0010 - 0.9990

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 515797
Question: Will Robert Habeck be the next Chancellor of Germany?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 4469233.969956
Price History:
2025-01-18 04:00: 0.0255
2025-01-18 09:00: 0.0260
2025-01-18 14:00: 0.0230
2025-01-18 19:00: 0.0235
2025-01-19 00:00: 0.0235
2025-01-19 05:00: 0.0230
2025-01-19 10:00: 0.0245
2025-01-19 15:00: 0.0220
2025-01-19 20:00: 0.0220
2025-01-20 01:00: 0.0230
2025-01-20 06:00: 0.0235
2025-01-20 11:00: 0.0195
2025-01-20 16:00: 0.0170
2025-01-20 21:00: 0.0165
2025-01-21 02:00: 0.0165
2025-01-21 07:00: 0.0165
2025-01-21 12:00: 0.0165
2025-01-21 17:00: 0.0150
2025-01-21 22:00: 0.0170
2025-01-22 03:00: 0.0150
2025-01-22 08:00: 0.0115
2025-01-22 13:00: 0.0120
2025-01-22 18:00: 0.0115
2025-01-22 23:00: 0.0105
2025-01-23 04:00: 0.0100
2025-01-23 09:00: 0.0085
2025-01-23 14:00: 0.0085
2025-01-23 19:00: 0.0085
2025-01-24 00:00: 0.0085
2025-01-24 05:00: 0.0085
2025-01-24 10:00: 0.0070
2025-01-24 15:00: 0.0045
2025-01-24 20:00: 0.0060
2025-01-25 01:00: 0.0060
2025-01-25 06:00: 0.0065
2025-01-25 11:00: 0.0070
2025-01-25 16:00: 0.0065
2025-01-25 21:00: 0.0055
2025-01-26 02:00: 0.0055
2025-01-26 07:00: 0.0055
2025-01-26 12:00: 0.0055
2025-01-26 17:00: 0.0055
2025-01-26 22:00: 0.0055
2025-01-27 03:00: 0.0055
2025-01-27 08:00: 0.0055
2025-01-27 13:00: 0.0055
2025-01-27 18:00: 0.0055
2025-01-27 23:00: 0.0055
2025-01-28 04:00: 0.0055
2025-01-28 09:00: 0.0055
Trade Summary: Total trades: 1000000, Buy volume: 137632216.93, Sell volume: 76013085.59, Average price: 0.6624, Price range: 0.0010 - 0.9990

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 515797
Question: Will Robert Habeck be the next Chancellor of Germany?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 4469233.969956
Price History:
2025-01-29 00:00: 0.0055
2025-01-29 05:00: 0.0055
2025-01-29 10:00: 0.0055
2025-01-29 15:00: 0.0055
2025-01-29 20:00: 0.0065
2025-01-30 01:00: 0.0065
2025-01-30 06:00: 0.0100
2025-01-30 11:00: 0.0085
2025-01-30 16:00: 0.0090
2025-01-30 21:00: 0.0115
2025-01-31 02:00: 0.0135
2025-01-31 07:00: 0.0090
2025-01-31 12:00: 0.0140
2025-01-31 17:00: 0.0185
2025-01-31 22:00: 0.0185
2025-02-01 03:00: 0.0185
2025-02-01 08:00: 0.0195
2025-02-01 13:00: 0.0180
2025-02-01 18:00: 0.0165
2025-02-01 23:00: 0.0160
2025-02-02 04:00: 0.0170
2025-02-02 09:00: 0.0160
2025-02-02 14:00: 0.0190
2025-02-02 19:00: 0.0185
2025-02-03 00:00: 0.0155
2025-02-03 05:00: 0.0155
2025-02-03 10:00: 0.0180
2025-02-03 15:00: 0.0185
2025-02-03 20:00: 0.0175
2025-02-04 01:00: 0.0175
2025-02-04 06:00: 0.0175
2025-02-04 11:00: 0.0185
2025-02-04 16:00: 0.0145
2025-02-04 21:00: 0.0160
2025-02-05 02:00: 0.0160
2025-02-05 07:00: 0.0165
2025-02-05 12:00: 0.0170
2025-02-05 17:00: 0.0175
2025-02-05 22:00: 0.0195
2025-02-06 03:00: 0.0195
2025-02-06 08:00: 0.0170
2025-02-06 13:00: 0.0165
2025-02-06 18:00: 0.0200
2025-02-06 23:00: 0.0190
2025-02-07 04:00: 0.0190
2025-02-07 09:00: 0.0245
2025-02-07 14:00: 0.0170
2025-02-07 19:00: 0.0170
2025-02-08 00:00: 0.0170
2025-02-08 05:00: 0.0170
Trade Summary: Total trades: 1000000, Buy volume: 137632216.93, Sell volume: 76013085.59, Average price: 0.6624, Price range: 0.0010 - 0.9990

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 515797
Question: Will Robert Habeck be the next Chancellor of Germany?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 4469233.969956
Price History:
2025-02-08 20:00: 0.0105
2025-02-09 01:00: 0.0095
2025-02-09 06:00: 0.0115
2025-02-09 11:00: 0.0110
2025-02-09 16:00: 0.0080
2025-02-09 21:00: 0.0065
2025-02-10 02:00: 0.0080
2025-02-10 07:00: 0.0090
2025-02-10 12:00: 0.0090
2025-02-10 17:00: 0.0095
2025-02-10 22:00: 0.0085
2025-02-11 03:00: 0.0085
2025-02-11 08:00: 0.0100
2025-02-11 13:00: 0.0095
2025-02-11 18:00: 0.0095
2025-02-11 23:00: 0.0090
2025-02-12 04:00: 0.0090
2025-02-12 09:00: 0.0085
2025-02-12 14:00: 0.0085
2025-02-12 19:00: 0.0090
2025-02-13 00:00: 0.0090
2025-02-13 05:00: 0.0090
2025-02-13 10:00: 0.0090
2025-02-13 15:00: 0.0090
2025-02-13 20:00: 0.0090
2025-02-14 01:00: 0.0090
2025-02-14 06:00: 0.0085
2025-02-14 11:00: 0.0085
2025-02-14 16:00: 0.0085
2025-02-14 21:00: 0.0080
2025-02-15 02:00: 0.0080
2025-02-15 07:00: 0.0075
2025-02-15 12:00: 0.0085
2025-02-15 17:00: 0.0085
2025-02-15 22:00: 0.0075
2025-02-16 03:00: 0.0075
2025-02-16 08:00: 0.0080
2025-02-16 13:00: 0.0080
2025-02-16 18:00: 0.0075
2025-02-16 23:00: 0.0075
2025-02-17 04:00: 0.0070
2025-02-17 09:00: 0.0070
2025-02-17 14:00: 0.0070
2025-02-17 19:00: 0.0065
2025-02-18 00:00: 0.0065
2025-02-18 05:00: 0.0065
2025-02-18 10:00: 0.0055
2025-02-18 15:00: 0.0055
2025-02-18 20:00: 0.0055
2025-02-19 01:00: 0.0045
Trade Summary: Total trades: 429570, Buy volume: 37549084.90, Sell volume: 20150609.22, Average price: 0.8566, Price range: 0.0040 - 0.9970

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 515797
Question: Will Robert Habeck be the next Chancellor of Germany?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 4469233.969956
Price History:
2025-02-19 16:00: 0.0035
2025-02-19 21:00: 0.0045
2025-02-20 02:00: 0.0035
2025-02-20 07:00: 0.0035
2025-02-20 12:00: 0.0045
2025-02-20 17:00: 0.0040
2025-02-20 22:00: 0.0040
2025-02-21 03:00: 0.0035
2025-02-21 08:00: 0.0035
2025-02-21 13:00: 0.0040
2025-02-21 18:00: 0.0040
2025-02-21 23:00: 0.0040
2025-02-22 04:00: 0.0035
2025-02-22 09:00: 0.0035
2025-02-22 14:00: 0.0040
2025-02-22 19:00: 0.0035
2025-02-23 00:00: 0.0035
2025-02-23 05:00: 0.0035
2025-02-23 10:00: 0.0040
2025-02-23 15:00: 0.0020
2025-02-23 20:00: 0.0005
2025-02-24 01:00: 0.0005
2025-02-24 06:00: 0.0010
2025-02-24 11:00: 0.0005
2025-02-24 16:00: 0.0005
2025-02-24 21:00: 0.0005
2025-02-25 02:00: 0.0005
2025-02-25 07:00: 0.0005
2025-02-25 12:00: 0.0005
2025-02-25 17:00: 0.0005
2025-02-25 22:00: 0.0005
2025-02-26 03:00: 0.0005
2025-02-26 08:00: 0.0005
2025-02-26 13:00: 0.0005
2025-02-26 18:00: 0.0005
2025-02-26 23:00: 0.0005
2025-02-27 04:00: 0.0005
2025-02-27 09:00: 0.0005
2025-02-27 14:00: 0.0005
2025-02-27 19:00: 0.0005
2025-02-28 00:00: 0.0005
2025-02-28 05:00: 0.0005
2025-02-28 10:00: 0.0005
2025-02-28 15:00: 0.0005
2025-02-28 20:00: 0.0005
2025-03-01 01:00: 0.0005
2025-03-01 06:00: 0.0005
2025-03-01 11:00: 0.0005
2025-03-01 16:00: 0.0005
2025-03-01 21:00: 0.0005
Trade Summary: Total trades: 565929, Buy volume: 95185755.35, Sell volume: 55850644.56, Average price: 0.5129, Price range: 0.0010 - 0.9990

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 515797
Question: Will Robert Habeck be the next Chancellor of Germany?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 4469233.969956
Price History:
2025-03-02 12:00: 0.0005
2025-03-02 17:00: 0.0005
2025-03-02 22:00: 0.0005
2025-03-03 03:00: 0.0005
2025-03-03 08:00: 0.0005
2025-03-03 13:00: 0.0005
2025-03-03 18:00: 0.0005
2025-03-03 23:00: 0.0005
2025-03-04 04:00: 0.0005
2025-03-04 09:00: 0.0005
2025-03-04 14:00: 0.0005
2025-03-04 19:00: 0.0005
2025-03-05 00:00: 0.0005
2025-03-05 05:00: 0.0005
2025-03-05 10:00: 0.0005
2025-03-05 15:00: 0.0005
2025-03-05 20:00: 0.0005
2025-03-06 01:00: 0.0005
2025-03-06 06:00: 0.0005
2025-03-06 11:00: 0.0005
2025-03-06 16:00: 0.0005
2025-03-06 21:00: 0.0005
2025-03-07 02:00: 0.0005
2025-03-07 07:00: 0.0005
2025-03-07 12:00: 0.0005
2025-03-07 17:00: 0.0005
2025-03-07 22:00: 0.0005
2025-03-08 03:00: 0.0005
2025-03-08 08:00: 0.0005
2025-03-08 13:00: 0.0005
2025-03-08 18:00: 0.0005
2025-03-08 23:00: 0.0005
2025-03-09 05:00: 0.0005
2025-03-09 10:00: 0.0005
2025-03-09 15:00: 0.0005
2025-03-09 20:00: 0.0005
2025-03-10 01:00: 0.0005
2025-03-10 06:00: 0.0005
2025-03-10 11:00: 0.0005
2025-03-10 16:00: 0.0005
2025-03-10 21:00: 0.0005
2025-03-11 02:00: 0.0005
2025-03-11 07:00: 0.0005
2025-03-11 12:00: 0.0005
2025-03-11 17:00: 0.0005
2025-03-11 22:00: 0.0005
2025-03-12 03:00: 0.0005
2025-03-12 08:00: 0.0005
2025-03-12 13:00: 0.0005
2025-03-12 18:00: 0.0005
Trade Summary: Total trades: 171, Buy volume: 1015797.95, Sell volume: 6025.49, Average price: 0.1761, Price range: 0.0010 - 0.9990

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 515797
Question: Will Robert Habeck be the next Chancellor of Germany?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 4469233.969956
Price History:
2025-03-13 09:00: 0.0005
2025-03-13 14:00: 0.0005
2025-03-13 19:00: 0.0005
2025-03-14 00:00: 0.0005
2025-03-14 05:00: 0.0005
2025-03-14 10:00: 0.0005
2025-03-14 15:00: 0.0005
2025-03-14 20:00: 0.0005
2025-03-15 01:00: 0.0005
2025-03-15 06:00: 0.0005
2025-03-15 11:00: 0.0005
2025-03-15 16:00: 0.0005
2025-03-15 21:00: 0.0005
2025-03-16 02:00: 0.0005
2025-03-16 07:00: 0.0005
2025-03-16 12:00: 0.0005
2025-03-16 17:00: 0.0005
2025-03-16 22:00: 0.0005
2025-03-17 03:00: 0.0005
2025-03-17 08:00: 0.0005
2025-03-17 13:00: 0.0005
2025-03-17 18:00: 0.0005
2025-03-17 23:00: 0.0005
2025-03-18 04:00: 0.0005
2025-03-18 09:00: 0.0005
2025-03-18 14:00: 0.0005
2025-03-18 19:00: 0.0005
2025-03-19 00:00: 0.0005
2025-03-19 05:00: 0.0005
2025-03-19 10:00: 0.0005
2025-03-19 15:00: 0.0005
2025-03-19 20:00: 0.0005
2025-03-20 01:00: 0.0005
2025-03-20 06:00: 0.0005
2025-03-20 11:00: 0.0005
2025-03-20 16:00: 0.0005
2025-03-20 21:00: 0.0005
2025-03-21 02:00: 0.0005
2025-03-21 07:00: 0.0005
2025-03-21 12:00: 0.0005
2025-03-21 17:00: 0.0005
2025-03-21 22:00: 0.0005
2025-03-22 03:00: 0.0005
2025-03-22 08:00: 0.0005
2025-03-22 13:00: 0.0005
2025-03-22 18:00: 0.0005
2025-03-22 23:00: 0.0005
2025-03-23 04:00: 0.0005
2025-03-23 09:00: 0.0005
2025-03-23 14:00: 0.0005
Trade Summary: Total trades: 131, Buy volume: 947650.00, Sell volume: 1375.43, Average price: 0.7095, Price range: 0.0010 - 0.9990

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 515797
Question: Will Robert Habeck be the next Chancellor of Germany?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 4469233.969956
Price History:
2025-03-24 05:00: 0.0005
2025-03-24 10:00: 0.0005
2025-03-24 15:00: 0.0005
2025-03-24 20:00: 0.0005
2025-03-25 01:00: 0.0005
2025-03-25 06:00: 0.0005
2025-03-25 11:00: 0.0005
2025-03-25 16:00: 0.0005
2025-03-25 21:00: 0.0005
2025-03-26 02:00: 0.0005
2025-03-26 07:00: 0.0005
2025-03-26 12:00: 0.0005
2025-03-26 17:00: 0.0005
2025-03-26 22:00: 0.0005
2025-03-27 03:00: 0.0005
2025-03-27 08:00: 0.0005
2025-03-27 13:00: 0.0005
2025-03-27 18:00: 0.0005
2025-03-27 23:00: 0.0005
2025-03-28 04:00: 0.0005
2025-03-28 09:00: 0.0005
2025-03-28 14:00: 0.0005
2025-03-28 19:00: 0.0005
2025-03-29 00:00: 0.0005
2025-03-29 05:00: 0.0005
2025-03-29 10:00: 0.0005
2025-03-29 15:00: 0.0005
2025-03-29 20:00: 0.0005
2025-03-30 01:00: 0.0005
2025-03-30 06:00: 0.0005
2025-03-30 11:00: 0.0005
2025-03-30 16:00: 0.0005
2025-03-30 21:00: 0.0005
2025-03-31 02:00: 0.0005
2025-03-31 07:00: 0.0005
2025-03-31 12:00: 0.0005
2025-03-31 17:00: 0.0005
2025-03-31 22:00: 0.0005
2025-04-01 03:00: 0.0010
2025-04-01 08:00: 0.0010
2025-04-01 13:00: 0.0010
2025-04-01 18:00: 0.0010
2025-04-01 23:00: 0.0010
2025-04-02 04:00: 0.0010
2025-04-02 09:00: 0.0010
2025-04-02 14:00: 0.0010
2025-04-02 19:00: 0.0010
2025-04-03 00:00: 0.0005
2025-04-03 05:00: 0.0005
2025-04-03 10:00: 0.0005
Trade Summary: Total trades: 87, Buy volume: 370377.28, Sell volume: 689.00, Average price: 0.2074, Price range: 0.0010 - 0.9990

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 515797
Question: Will Robert Habeck be the next Chancellor of Germany?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 4469233.969956
Price History:
2025-04-04 01:00: 0.0005
2025-04-04 06:00: 0.0005
2025-04-04 11:00: 0.0005
2025-04-04 16:00: 0.0005
2025-04-04 21:00: 0.0005
2025-04-05 02:00: 0.0005
2025-04-05 07:00: 0.0005
2025-04-05 12:00: 0.0005
2025-04-05 17:00: 0.0005
2025-04-05 22:00: 0.0005
2025-04-06 03:00: 0.0005
2025-04-06 08:00: 0.0005
2025-04-06 13:00: 0.0005
2025-04-06 18:00: 0.0005
2025-04-06 23:00: 0.0005
2025-04-07 04:00: 0.0005
2025-04-07 09:00: 0.0005
2025-04-07 14:00: 0.0005
2025-04-07 19:00: 0.0005
2025-04-08 00:00: 0.0005
2025-04-08 05:00: 0.0005
2025-04-08 10:00: 0.0005
2025-04-08 15:00: 0.0005
2025-04-08 20:00: 0.0005
2025-04-09 01:00: 0.0005
2025-04-09 06:00: 0.0005
2025-04-09 11:00: 0.0005
2025-04-09 16:00: 0.0005
2025-04-09 21:00: 0.0005
2025-04-10 02:00: 0.0005
2025-04-10 07:00: 0.0005
2025-04-10 12:00: 0.0005
2025-04-10 17:00: 0.0005
2025-04-10 22:00: 0.0005
2025-04-11 03:00: 0.0005
2025-04-11 08:00: 0.0005
2025-04-11 13:00: 0.0010
2025-04-11 18:00: 0.0010
2025-04-11 23:00: 0.0010
2025-04-12 04:00: 0.0010
2025-04-12 09:00: 0.0010
2025-04-12 14:00: 0.0010
2025-04-12 19:00: 0.0005
2025-04-13 00:00: 0.0005
2025-04-13 05:00: 0.0005
2025-04-13 10:00: 0.0005
2025-04-13 15:00: 0.0005
2025-04-13 20:00: 0.0005
2025-04-14 01:00: 0.0005
2025-04-14 06:00: 0.0005
Trade Summary: Total trades: 66, Buy volume: 736416.39, Sell volume: 1236.47, Average price: 0.5756, Price range: 0.0010 - 0.9990

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 515797
Question: Will Robert Habeck be the next Chancellor of Germany?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 4469233.969956
Price History:
2025-04-14 21:00: 0.0005
2025-04-15 02:00: 0.0005
2025-04-15 07:00: 0.0005
2025-04-15 12:00: 0.0005
2025-04-15 17:00: 0.0005
2025-04-15 22:00: 0.0005
2025-04-16 03:00: 0.0005
2025-04-16 08:00: 0.0005
2025-04-16 13:00: 0.0005
2025-04-16 18:00: 0.0005
2025-04-16 23:00: 0.0005
2025-04-17 04:00: 0.0005
2025-04-17 09:00: 0.0005
2025-04-17 14:00: 0.0005
2025-04-17 19:00: 0.0005
2025-04-18 00:00: 0.0005
2025-04-18 05:00: 0.0005
2025-04-18 10:00: 0.0005
2025-04-18 15:00: 0.0005
2025-04-18 20:00: 0.0005
2025-04-19 01:00: 0.0005
2025-04-19 06:00: 0.0005
2025-04-19 11:00: 0.0005
2025-04-19 16:00: 0.0005
2025-04-19 21:00: 0.0005
2025-04-20 02:00: 0.0005
2025-04-20 07:00: 0.0005
2025-04-20 12:00: 0.0005
2025-04-20 17:00: 0.0005
2025-04-20 22:00: 0.0005
2025-04-21 03:00: 0.0005
2025-04-21 08:00: 0.0005
2025-04-21 13:00: 0.0005
2025-04-21 18:00: 0.0005
2025-04-21 23:00: 0.0005
2025-04-22 04:00: 0.0005
2025-04-22 09:00: 0.0015
2025-04-22 14:00: 0.0005
2025-04-22 19:00: 0.0005
2025-04-23 00:00: 0.0005
2025-04-23 05:00: 0.0005
2025-04-23 10:00: 0.0005
2025-04-23 15:00: 0.0010
2025-04-23 20:00: 0.0010
2025-04-24 01:00: 0.0010
2025-04-24 06:00: 0.0010
2025-04-24 11:00: 0.0010
2025-04-24 16:00: 0.0010
2025-04-24 21:00: 0.0010
2025-04-25 02:00: 0.0010
Trade Summary: Total trades: 38, Buy volume: 8451.67, Sell volume: 2411.42, Average price: 0.6838, Price range: 0.0010 - 0.9990

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 515797
Question: Will Robert Habeck be the next Chancellor of Germany?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 4469233.969956
Price History:
2025-04-25 17:00: 0.0010
2025-04-25 22:00: 0.0010
2025-04-26 03:00: 0.0010
2025-04-26 08:00: 0.0010
2025-04-26 13:00: 0.0010
2025-04-26 18:00: 0.0010
2025-04-26 23:00: 0.0010
2025-04-27 04:00: 0.0010
2025-04-27 09:00: 0.0010
2025-04-27 14:00: 0.0010
2025-04-27 19:00: 0.0010
2025-04-28 00:00: 0.0010
2025-04-28 05:00: 0.0010
2025-04-28 10:00: 0.0010
2025-04-28 15:00: 0.0010
2025-04-28 20:00: 0.0010
2025-04-29 01:00: 0.0010
2025-04-29 06:00: 0.0010
2025-04-29 11:00: 0.0010
2025-04-29 16:00: 0.0010
2025-04-29 21:00: 0.0010
2025-04-30 02:00: 0.0010
2025-04-30 07:00: 0.0010
2025-04-30 12:00: 0.0015
2025-04-30 17:00: 0.0015
2025-04-30 22:00: 0.0010
2025-05-01 03:00: 0.0010
2025-05-01 08:00: 0.0010
2025-05-01 13:00: 0.0010
2025-05-01 18:00: 0.0010
2025-05-01 23:00: 0.0010
2025-05-02 04:00: 0.0010
2025-05-02 09:00: 0.0010
2025-05-02 14:00: 0.0010
2025-05-02 19:00: 0.0005
2025-05-03 00:00: 0.0005
2025-05-03 05:00: 0.0005
2025-05-03 10:00: 0.0005
2025-05-03 15:00: 0.0005
2025-05-03 20:00: 0.0005
2025-05-04 01:00: 0.0005
2025-05-04 06:00: 0.0005
2025-05-04 11:00: 0.0005
2025-05-04 16:00: 0.0005
2025-05-04 21:00: 0.0005
2025-05-05 02:00: 0.0005
2025-05-05 07:00: 0.0005
2025-05-05 12:00: 0.0005
2025-05-05 17:00: 0.0005
2025-05-05 22:00: 0.0005
Trade Summary: Total trades: 12, Buy volume: 29682.17, Sell volume: 94.00, Average price: 0.4999, Price range: 0.0010 - 0.9990

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 525060
Question: Will there not be a new Pope in 2025?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 984579.376152
Price History:
2025-02-24 15:00: 0.2200
2025-02-24 17:00: 0.7300
2025-02-24 20:00: 0.2550
2025-02-24 22:00: 0.6800
2025-02-25 01:00: 0.3100
2025-02-25 03:00: 0.7050
2025-02-25 06:00: 0.2800
2025-02-25 08:00: 0.7350
2025-02-25 11:00: 0.2600
2025-02-25 13:00: 0.7350
2025-02-25 16:00: 0.2350
2025-02-25 18:00: 0.7250
2025-02-25 21:00: 0.2900
2025-02-25 23:00: 0.7050
2025-02-26 02:00: 0.2900
2025-02-26 04:00: 0.7350
2025-02-26 07:00: 0.2550
2025-02-26 09:00: 0.7300
2025-02-26 12:00: 0.2550
2025-02-26 14:00: 0.7450
2025-02-26 17:00: 0.2600
2025-02-26 19:00: 0.7250
2025-02-26 22:00: 0.2800
2025-02-27 00:00: 0.7200
2025-02-27 03:00: 0.3000
2025-02-27 05:00: 0.7050
2025-02-27 08:00: 0.3150
2025-02-27 10:00: 0.6750
2025-02-27 13:00: 0.3550
2025-02-27 15:00: 0.6600
2025-02-27 18:00: 0.3450
2025-02-27 20:00: 0.6450
2025-02-27 23:00: 0.3500
2025-02-28 01:00: 0.6250
2025-02-28 04:00: 0.3800
2025-02-28 06:00: 0.6200
2025-02-28 09:00: 0.3950
2025-02-28 11:00: 0.5900
2025-02-28 14:00: 0.3100
2025-02-28 16:00: 0.7000
2025-02-28 19:00: 0.2950
2025-02-28 21:00: 0.7400
2025-03-01 00:00: 0.2550
2025-03-01 02:00: 0.7450
2025-03-01 05:00: 0.3000
2025-03-01 07:00: 0.7550
2025-03-01 10:00: 0.3000
2025-03-01 12:00: 0.7000
2025-03-01 15:00: 0.2900
2025-03-01 17:00: 0.7250
Trade Summary: Total trades: 1000000, Buy volume: 84361886.42, Sell volume: 82084092.67, Average price: 0.5722, Price range: 0.0010 - 0.9990

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 525060
Question: Will there not be a new Pope in 2025?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 984579.376152
Price History:
2025-03-02 06:00: 0.3050
2025-03-02 08:00: 0.7200
2025-03-02 11:00: 0.3000
2025-03-02 13:00: 0.7050
2025-03-02 16:00: 0.3150
2025-03-02 18:00: 0.6700
2025-03-02 21:00: 0.3700
2025-03-02 23:00: 0.6500
2025-03-03 02:00: 0.3850
2025-03-03 04:00: 0.6100
2025-03-03 07:00: 0.3850
2025-03-03 09:00: 0.6200
2025-03-03 12:00: 0.4150
2025-03-03 14:00: 0.6750
2025-03-03 17:00: 0.3100
2025-03-03 19:00: 0.7050
2025-03-03 22:00: 0.2900
2025-03-04 00:00: 0.7000
2025-03-04 03:00: 0.2850
2025-03-04 05:00: 0.7750
2025-03-04 08:00: 0.2650
2025-03-04 10:00: 0.7350
2025-03-04 13:00: 0.2700
2025-03-04 15:00: 0.7300
2025-03-04 18:00: 0.3150
2025-03-04 20:00: 0.7050
2025-03-04 23:00: 0.2950
2025-03-05 01:00: 0.7050
2025-03-05 04:00: 0.3150
2025-03-05 06:00: 0.6700
2025-03-05 09:00: 0.3350
2025-03-05 11:00: 0.6650
2025-03-05 14:00: 0.3350
2025-03-05 16:00: 0.6650
2025-03-05 19:00: 0.3350
2025-03-05 21:00: 0.6600
2025-03-06 00:00: 0.3350
2025-03-06 02:00: 0.6700
2025-03-06 05:00: 0.3450
2025-03-06 07:00: 0.6400
2025-03-06 10:00: 0.3550
2025-03-06 12:00: 0.6250
2025-03-06 15:00: 0.3750
2025-03-06 17:00: 0.6250
2025-03-06 20:00: 0.4450
2025-03-06 22:00: 0.5550
2025-03-07 01:00: 0.4450
2025-03-07 03:00: 0.5900
2025-03-07 06:00: 0.4150
2025-03-07 08:00: 0.5850
Trade Summary: Total trades: 1000000, Buy volume: 84361886.42, Sell volume: 82084092.67, Average price: 0.5722, Price range: 0.0010 - 0.9990

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 525060
Question: Will there not be a new Pope in 2025?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 984579.376152
Price History:
2025-03-07 21:00: 0.4150
2025-03-07 23:00: 0.5850
2025-03-08 02:00: 0.4250
2025-03-08 04:00: 0.5850
2025-03-08 07:00: 0.4150
2025-03-08 09:00: 0.5850
2025-03-08 12:00: 0.4150
2025-03-08 14:00: 0.5850
2025-03-08 17:00: 0.4200
2025-03-08 19:00: 0.5850
2025-03-08 22:00: 0.4250
2025-03-09 00:00: 0.5700
2025-03-09 04:00: 0.4350
2025-03-09 06:00: 0.5650
2025-03-09 09:00: 0.4350
2025-03-09 11:00: 0.5750
2025-03-09 14:00: 0.4450
2025-03-09 16:00: 0.5550
2025-03-09 19:00: 0.4400
2025-03-09 21:00: 0.5550
2025-03-10 00:00: 0.4450
2025-03-10 02:00: 0.5600
2025-03-10 05:00: 0.4450
2025-03-10 07:00: 0.5550
2025-03-10 10:00: 0.4400
2025-03-10 12:00: 0.5600
2025-03-10 15:00: 0.4700
2025-03-10 17:00: 0.5100
2025-03-10 20:00: 0.5400
2025-03-10 22:00: 0.4500
2025-03-11 01:00: 0.5550
2025-03-11 03:00: 0.4450
2025-03-11 06:00: 0.5600
2025-03-11 08:00: 0.4150
2025-03-11 11:00: 0.5750
2025-03-11 13:00: 0.4200
2025-03-11 16:00: 0.5800
2025-03-11 18:00: 0.4350
2025-03-11 21:00: 0.5800
2025-03-11 23:00: 0.4200
2025-03-12 02:00: 0.5800
2025-03-12 04:00: 0.4150
2025-03-12 07:00: 0.5850
2025-03-12 09:00: 0.4200
2025-03-12 12:00: 0.5700
2025-03-12 14:00: 0.4300
2025-03-12 17:00: 0.5700
2025-03-12 19:00: 0.4300
2025-03-12 22:00: 0.5700
2025-03-13 00:00: 0.4250
Trade Summary: Total trades: 1000000, Buy volume: 84361886.42, Sell volume: 82084092.67, Average price: 0.5722, Price range: 0.0010 - 0.9990

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 525060
Question: Will there not be a new Pope in 2025?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 984579.376152
Price History:
2025-03-13 13:00: 0.5750
2025-03-13 15:00: 0.4250
2025-03-13 18:00: 0.5750
2025-03-13 20:00: 0.4200
2025-03-13 23:00: 0.5800
2025-03-14 01:00: 0.4200
2025-03-14 04:00: 0.5800
2025-03-14 06:00: 0.4200
2025-03-14 09:00: 0.5800
2025-03-14 11:00: 0.4200
2025-03-14 14:00: 0.5800
2025-03-14 16:00: 0.4200
2025-03-14 19:00: 0.5800
2025-03-14 21:00: 0.4200
2025-03-15 00:00: 0.5750
2025-03-15 02:00: 0.4250
2025-03-15 05:00: 0.5350
2025-03-15 07:00: 0.4700
2025-03-15 10:00: 0.5450
2025-03-15 12:00: 0.4600
2025-03-15 15:00: 0.5500
2025-03-15 17:00: 0.4550
2025-03-15 20:00: 0.5550
2025-03-15 22:00: 0.4450
2025-03-16 01:00: 0.5550
2025-03-16 03:00: 0.4400
2025-03-16 06:00: 0.5550
2025-03-16 08:00: 0.4450
2025-03-16 11:00: 0.5500
2025-03-16 13:00: 0.4500
2025-03-16 16:00: 0.5550
2025-03-16 18:00: 0.4450
2025-03-16 21:00: 0.5500
2025-03-16 23:00: 0.4450
2025-03-17 02:00: 0.5500
2025-03-17 04:00: 0.4500
2025-03-17 07:00: 0.5500
2025-03-17 09:00: 0.4550
2025-03-17 12:00: 0.5450
2025-03-17 14:00: 0.4550
2025-03-17 17:00: 0.5550
2025-03-17 19:00: 0.4450
2025-03-17 22:00: 0.5550
2025-03-18 00:00: 0.4450
2025-03-18 03:00: 0.5550
2025-03-18 05:00: 0.4500
2025-03-18 08:00: 0.5500
2025-03-18 10:00: 0.4500
2025-03-18 13:00: 0.5500
2025-03-18 15:00: 0.4500
Trade Summary: Total trades: 1000000, Buy volume: 84361886.42, Sell volume: 82084092.67, Average price: 0.5722, Price range: 0.0010 - 0.9990

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 525060
Question: Will there not be a new Pope in 2025?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 984579.376152
Price History:
2025-03-19 04:00: 0.5400
2025-03-19 06:00: 0.4600
2025-03-19 09:00: 0.5400
2025-03-19 11:00: 0.4600
2025-03-19 14:00: 0.5400
2025-03-19 16:00: 0.4600
2025-03-19 19:00: 0.5500
2025-03-19 21:00: 0.4500
2025-03-20 00:00: 0.5500
2025-03-20 02:00: 0.4500
2025-03-20 05:00: 0.5500
2025-03-20 07:00: 0.4550
2025-03-20 10:00: 0.5450
2025-03-20 12:00: 0.4600
2025-03-20 15:00: 0.5450
2025-03-20 17:00: 0.4600
2025-03-20 20:00: 0.5450
2025-03-20 22:00: 0.4650
2025-03-21 01:00: 0.5350
2025-03-21 03:00: 0.4650
2025-03-21 06:00: 0.5350
2025-03-21 08:00: 0.4600
2025-03-21 11:00: 0.5400
2025-03-21 13:00: 0.4600
2025-03-21 16:00: 0.5350
2025-03-21 18:00: 0.4650
2025-03-21 21:00: 0.5350
2025-03-21 23:00: 0.4650
2025-03-22 02:00: 0.5350
2025-03-22 04:00: 0.4650
2025-03-22 07:00: 0.5350
2025-03-22 09:00: 0.4650
2025-03-22 12:00: 0.5350
2025-03-22 14:00: 0.4600
2025-03-22 17:00: 0.5900
2025-03-22 19:00: 0.4150
2025-03-22 22:00: 0.5950
2025-03-23 00:00: 0.4100
2025-03-23 03:00: 0.5900
2025-03-23 05:00: 0.4100
2025-03-23 08:00: 0.6150
2025-03-23 10:00: 0.3800
2025-03-23 13:00: 0.6200
2025-03-23 15:00: 0.3700
2025-03-23 18:00: 0.6300
2025-03-23 20:00: 0.3950
2025-03-23 23:00: 0.6100
2025-03-24 01:00: 0.4000
2025-03-24 04:00: 0.6000
2025-03-24 06:00: 0.4000
Trade Summary: Total trades: 1000000, Buy volume: 84361886.42, Sell volume: 82084092.67, Average price: 0.5722, Price range: 0.0010 - 0.9990

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 525060
Question: Will there not be a new Pope in 2025?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 984579.376152
Price History:
2025-03-24 19:00: 0.6000
2025-03-24 21:00: 0.4000
2025-03-25 00:00: 0.5950
2025-03-25 02:00: 0.4050
2025-03-25 05:00: 0.5950
2025-03-25 07:00: 0.4050
2025-03-25 10:00: 0.5950
2025-03-25 12:00: 0.4150
2025-03-25 15:00: 0.5850
2025-03-25 17:00: 0.4100
2025-03-25 20:00: 0.5850
2025-03-25 22:00: 0.4150
2025-03-26 01:00: 0.5800
2025-03-26 03:00: 0.4250
2025-03-26 06:00: 0.5750
2025-03-26 08:00: 0.4250
2025-03-26 11:00: 0.5750
2025-03-26 13:00: 0.4350
2025-03-26 16:00: 0.5650
2025-03-26 18:00: 0.4350
2025-03-26 21:00: 0.5700
2025-03-26 23:00: 0.4300
2025-03-27 02:00: 0.5750
2025-03-27 04:00: 0.4250
2025-03-27 07:00: 0.5700
2025-03-27 09:00: 0.4300
2025-03-27 12:00: 0.5650
2025-03-27 14:00: 0.4300
2025-03-27 17:00: 0.5700
2025-03-27 19:00: 0.4300
2025-03-27 22:00: 0.5700
2025-03-28 00:00: 0.4300
2025-03-28 03:00: 0.5650
2025-03-28 05:00: 0.4550
2025-03-28 08:00: 0.5400
2025-03-28 10:00: 0.4550
2025-03-28 13:00: 0.5300
2025-03-28 15:00: 0.4550
2025-03-28 18:00: 0.5450
2025-03-28 20:00: 0.4500
2025-03-28 23:00: 0.5450
2025-03-29 01:00: 0.4550
2025-03-29 04:00: 0.5450
2025-03-29 06:00: 0.4600
2025-03-29 09:00: 0.5350
2025-03-29 11:00: 0.4650
2025-03-29 14:00: 0.5350
2025-03-29 16:00: 0.4650
2025-03-29 19:00: 0.5350
2025-03-29 21:00: 0.4650
Trade Summary: Total trades: 1000000, Buy volume: 84361886.42, Sell volume: 82084092.67, Average price: 0.5722, Price range: 0.0010 - 0.9990

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 525060
Question: Will there not be a new Pope in 2025?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 984579.376152
Price History:
2025-03-30 10:00: 0.5350
2025-03-30 12:00: 0.4650
2025-03-30 15:00: 0.5350
2025-03-30 17:00: 0.4650
2025-03-30 20:00: 0.5350
2025-03-30 22:00: 0.4650
2025-03-31 01:00: 0.5400
2025-03-31 03:00: 0.4600
2025-03-31 06:00: 0.5400
2025-03-31 08:00: 0.4650
2025-03-31 11:00: 0.5350
2025-03-31 13:00: 0.4650
2025-03-31 16:00: 0.5350
2025-03-31 18:00: 0.4600
2025-03-31 21:00: 0.5400
2025-03-31 23:00: 0.4450
2025-04-01 02:00: 0.5450
2025-04-01 04:00: 0.4550
2025-04-01 07:00: 0.5700
2025-04-01 09:00: 0.4450
2025-04-01 12:00: 0.5600
2025-04-01 14:00: 0.4350
2025-04-01 17:00: 0.5650
2025-04-01 19:00: 0.4350
2025-04-01 22:00: 0.5700
2025-04-02 00:00: 0.4350
2025-04-02 03:00: 0.5650
2025-04-02 05:00: 0.4350
2025-04-02 08:00: 0.5650
2025-04-02 10:00: 0.4400
2025-04-02 13:00: 0.5550
2025-04-02 15:00: 0.4500
2025-04-02 18:00: 0.5550
2025-04-02 20:00: 0.4450
2025-04-02 23:00: 0.5550
2025-04-03 01:00: 0.4450
2025-04-03 04:00: 0.5550
2025-04-03 06:00: 0.4450
2025-04-03 09:00: 0.5550
2025-04-03 11:00: 0.4450
2025-04-03 14:00: 0.5550
2025-04-03 16:00: 0.4450
2025-04-03 19:00: 0.5550
2025-04-03 21:00: 0.4450
2025-04-04 00:00: 0.5550
2025-04-04 02:00: 0.4450
2025-04-04 05:00: 0.5550
2025-04-04 07:00: 0.4500
2025-04-04 10:00: 0.5500
2025-04-04 12:00: 0.4500
Trade Summary: Total trades: 1000000, Buy volume: 84361886.42, Sell volume: 82084092.67, Average price: 0.5722, Price range: 0.0010 - 0.9990

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 525060
Question: Will there not be a new Pope in 2025?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 984579.376152
Price History:
2025-04-05 01:00: 0.5500
2025-04-05 03:00: 0.4350
2025-04-05 06:00: 0.5650
2025-04-05 08:00: 0.4350
2025-04-05 11:00: 0.5650
2025-04-05 13:00: 0.4350
2025-04-05 16:00: 0.5650
2025-04-05 18:00: 0.4350
2025-04-05 21:00: 0.5650
2025-04-05 23:00: 0.4350
2025-04-06 02:00: 0.5650
2025-04-06 04:00: 0.4350
2025-04-06 07:00: 0.5650
2025-04-06 09:00: 0.4350
2025-04-06 12:00: 0.5650
2025-04-06 14:00: 0.4350
2025-04-06 17:00: 0.5650
2025-04-06 19:00: 0.4350
2025-04-06 22:00: 0.5650
2025-04-07 00:00: 0.4350
2025-04-07 03:00: 0.5650
2025-04-07 05:00: 0.4300
2025-04-07 08:00: 0.5700
2025-04-07 10:00: 0.4300
2025-04-07 13:00: 0.5750
2025-04-07 15:00: 0.4250
2025-04-07 18:00: 0.5750
2025-04-07 20:00: 0.4250
2025-04-07 23:00: 0.5750
2025-04-08 01:00: 0.4250
2025-04-08 04:00: 0.5750
2025-04-08 06:00: 0.4250
2025-04-08 09:00: 0.5850
2025-04-08 11:00: 0.4050
2025-04-08 14:00: 0.5950
2025-04-08 16:00: 0.4050
2025-04-08 19:00: 0.5950
2025-04-08 21:00: 0.3900
2025-04-09 00:00: 0.6150
2025-04-09 02:00: 0.3800
2025-04-09 05:00: 0.6050
2025-04-09 07:00: 0.3800
2025-04-09 10:00: 0.6200
2025-04-09 12:00: 0.3750
2025-04-09 15:00: 0.6250
2025-04-09 17:00: 0.3750
2025-04-09 20:00: 0.6250
2025-04-09 22:00: 0.3700
2025-04-10 01:00: 0.6250
2025-04-10 03:00: 0.3750
Trade Summary: Total trades: 1000000, Buy volume: 84361886.42, Sell volume: 82084092.67, Average price: 0.5722, Price range: 0.0010 - 0.9990

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 525060
Question: Will there not be a new Pope in 2025?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 984579.376152
Price History:
2025-04-10 16:00: 0.6350
2025-04-10 18:00: 0.3650
2025-04-10 21:00: 0.6350
2025-04-10 23:00: 0.3350
2025-04-11 02:00: 0.6300
2025-04-11 04:00: 0.3650
2025-04-11 07:00: 0.6350
2025-04-11 09:00: 0.3700
2025-04-11 12:00: 0.6400
2025-04-11 14:00: 0.3550
2025-04-11 17:00: 0.6450
2025-04-11 19:00: 0.3550
2025-04-11 22:00: 0.6450
2025-04-12 00:00: 0.3550
2025-04-12 03:00: 0.6450
2025-04-12 05:00: 0.3550
2025-04-12 08:00: 0.6450
2025-04-12 10:00: 0.3550
2025-04-12 13:00: 0.6450
2025-04-12 15:00: 0.3550
2025-04-12 18:00: 0.6450
2025-04-12 20:00: 0.3550
2025-04-12 23:00: 0.6450
2025-04-13 01:00: 0.3550
2025-04-13 04:00: 0.6450
2025-04-13 06:00: 0.3550
2025-04-13 09:00: 0.6300
2025-04-13 11:00: 0.3700
2025-04-13 14:00: 0.6300
2025-04-13 16:00: 0.3700
2025-04-13 19:00: 0.6300
2025-04-13 21:00: 0.3700
2025-04-14 00:00: 0.6300
2025-04-14 02:00: 0.3700
2025-04-14 05:00: 0.6300
2025-04-14 07:00: 0.3700
2025-04-14 10:00: 0.6300
2025-04-14 12:00: 0.3700
2025-04-14 15:00: 0.6300
2025-04-14 17:00: 0.3600
2025-04-14 20:00: 0.6600
2025-04-14 22:00: 0.3400
2025-04-15 01:00: 0.6650
2025-04-15 03:00: 0.3350
2025-04-15 06:00: 0.6600
2025-04-15 08:00: 0.3350
2025-04-15 11:00: 0.6650
2025-04-15 13:00: 0.3350
2025-04-15 16:00: 0.6650
2025-04-15 18:00: 0.3350
Trade Summary: Total trades: 1000000, Buy volume: 84361886.42, Sell volume: 82084092.67, Average price: 0.5722, Price range: 0.0010 - 0.9990

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 525060
Question: Will there not be a new Pope in 2025?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 984579.376152
Price History:
2025-04-16 07:00: 0.6650
2025-04-16 09:00: 0.3350
2025-04-16 12:00: 0.6650
2025-04-16 14:00: 0.3350
2025-04-16 17:00: 0.6650
2025-04-16 19:00: 0.3350
2025-04-16 22:00: 0.6450
2025-04-17 00:00: 0.3550
2025-04-17 03:00: 0.6600
2025-04-17 05:00: 0.3400
2025-04-17 08:00: 0.6600
2025-04-17 10:00: 0.3400
2025-04-17 13:00: 0.6600
2025-04-17 15:00: 0.3400
2025-04-17 18:00: 0.6600
2025-04-17 20:00: 0.3400
2025-04-17 23:00: 0.6600
2025-04-18 01:00: 0.3400
2025-04-18 04:00: 0.6600
2025-04-18 06:00: 0.3400
2025-04-18 09:00: 0.6600
2025-04-18 11:00: 0.3400
2025-04-18 14:00: 0.6600
2025-04-18 16:00: 0.3400
2025-04-18 19:00: 0.6600
2025-04-18 21:00: 0.3400
2025-04-19 00:00: 0.6600
2025-04-19 02:00: 0.3400
2025-04-19 05:00: 0.6650
2025-04-19 07:00: 0.3350
2025-04-19 10:00: 0.6650
2025-04-19 12:00: 0.3350
2025-04-19 15:00: 0.6650
2025-04-19 17:00: 0.3450
2025-04-19 20:00: 0.6550
2025-04-19 22:00: 0.3450
2025-04-20 01:00: 0.6550
2025-04-20 03:00: 0.3450
2025-04-20 06:00: 0.6550
2025-04-20 08:00: 0.3450
2025-04-20 11:00: 0.6550
2025-04-20 13:00: 0.3450
2025-04-20 16:00: 0.6600
2025-04-20 18:00: 0.3400
2025-04-20 21:00: 0.6600
2025-04-20 23:00: 0.3400
2025-04-21 02:00: 0.6600
2025-04-21 04:00: 0.6650
2025-04-21 07:00: 0.0045
2025-04-21 09:00: 0.9965
Trade Summary: Total trades: 1000000, Buy volume: 84361886.42, Sell volume: 82084092.67, Average price: 0.5722, Price range: 0.0010 - 0.9990

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 525060
Question: Will there not be a new Pope in 2025?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 984579.376152
Price History:
2025-04-21 22:00: 0.0025
2025-04-22 00:00: 0.9975
2025-04-22 03:00: 0.0035
2025-04-22 05:00: 0.9975
2025-04-22 08:00: 0.0035
2025-04-22 10:00: 0.9965
2025-04-22 13:00: 0.0050
2025-04-22 15:00: 0.9950
2025-04-22 18:00: 0.0050
2025-04-22 20:00: 0.9950
2025-04-22 23:00: 0.0050
2025-04-23 01:00: 0.9950
2025-04-23 04:00: 0.0045
2025-04-23 06:00: 0.9960
2025-04-23 09:00: 0.0055
2025-04-23 11:00: 0.9945
2025-04-23 14:00: 0.0045
2025-04-23 16:00: 0.9940
2025-04-23 19:00: 0.0060
2025-04-23 21:00: 0.9940
2025-04-24 00:00: 0.0060
2025-04-24 02:00: 0.9940
2025-04-24 05:00: 0.0060
2025-04-24 07:00: 0.9950
2025-04-24 10:00: 0.0045
2025-04-24 12:00: 0.9950
2025-04-24 15:00: 0.0050
2025-04-24 17:00: 0.9950
2025-04-24 20:00: 0.0050
2025-04-24 22:00: 0.9950
2025-04-25 01:00: 0.0050
2025-04-25 03:00: 0.9950
2025-04-25 06:00: 0.0050
2025-04-25 08:00: 0.9950
2025-04-25 11:00: 0.0050
2025-04-25 13:00: 0.9950
2025-04-25 16:00: 0.0050
2025-04-25 18:00: 0.9955
2025-04-25 21:00: 0.0045
2025-04-25 23:00: 0.9955
2025-04-26 02:00: 0.0040
2025-04-26 04:00: 0.9960
2025-04-26 07:00: 0.0040
2025-04-26 09:00: 0.9960
2025-04-26 12:00: 0.0040
2025-04-26 14:00: 0.9955
2025-04-26 17:00: 0.0045
2025-04-26 19:00: 0.9955
2025-04-26 22:00: 0.0055
2025-04-27 00:00: 0.9955
Trade Summary: Total trades: 525474, Buy volume: 45031421.97, Sell volume: 21027551.40, Average price: 0.7962, Price range: 0.0030 - 0.9970

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 525060
Question: Will there not be a new Pope in 2025?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 984579.376152
Price History:
2025-04-27 13:00: 0.0055
2025-04-27 15:00: 0.9945
2025-04-27 18:00: 0.0050
2025-04-27 20:00: 0.9950
2025-04-27 23:00: 0.0055
2025-04-28 01:00: 0.9950
2025-04-28 04:00: 0.0065
2025-04-28 06:00: 0.9940
2025-04-28 09:00: 0.0055
2025-04-28 11:00: 0.9940
2025-04-28 14:00: 0.0050
2025-04-28 16:00: 0.9945
2025-04-28 19:00: 0.0055
2025-04-28 21:00: 0.9945
2025-04-29 00:00: 0.0055
2025-04-29 02:00: 0.9935
2025-04-29 05:00: 0.0055
2025-04-29 07:00: 0.9945
2025-04-29 10:00: 0.0060
2025-04-29 12:00: 0.9945
2025-04-29 15:00: 0.0055
2025-04-29 17:00: 0.9940
2025-04-29 20:00: 0.0055
2025-04-29 22:00: 0.9940
2025-04-30 01:00: 0.0050
2025-04-30 03:00: 0.9950
2025-04-30 06:00: 0.0055
2025-04-30 08:00: 0.9950
2025-04-30 11:00: 0.0040
2025-04-30 13:00: 0.9965
2025-04-30 16:00: 0.0040
2025-04-30 18:00: 0.9975
2025-04-30 21:00: 0.0025
2025-04-30 23:00: 0.9975
2025-05-01 02:00: 0.0025
2025-05-01 04:00: 0.9975
2025-05-01 07:00: 0.0030
2025-05-01 09:00: 0.9975
2025-05-01 12:00: 0.0025
2025-05-01 14:00: 0.9970
2025-05-01 17:00: 0.0030
2025-05-01 19:00: 0.9970
2025-05-01 22:00: 0.0030
2025-05-02 00:00: 0.9970
2025-05-02 03:00: 0.0035
2025-05-02 05:00: 0.9965
2025-05-02 08:00: 0.0035
2025-05-02 10:00: 0.9965
2025-05-02 13:00: 0.0035
2025-05-02 15:00: 0.9965
Trade Summary: Total trades: 458241, Buy volume: 38808287.84, Sell volume: 61015131.87, Average price: 0.3003, Price range: 0.0020 - 0.9980

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 525060
Question: Will there not be a new Pope in 2025?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 984579.376152
Price History:
2025-05-03 04:00: 0.0035
2025-05-03 06:00: 0.9965
2025-05-03 09:00: 0.0035
2025-05-03 11:00: 0.9965
2025-05-03 14:00: 0.0035
2025-05-03 16:00: 0.9965
2025-05-03 19:00: 0.0035
2025-05-03 21:00: 0.9965
2025-05-04 00:00: 0.0035
2025-05-04 02:00: 0.9965
2025-05-04 05:00: 0.0035
2025-05-04 07:00: 0.9965
2025-05-04 10:00: 0.0035
2025-05-04 12:00: 0.9970
2025-05-04 15:00: 0.0025
2025-05-04 17:00: 0.9980
2025-05-04 20:00: 0.0020
2025-05-04 22:00: 0.9980
2025-05-05 01:00: 0.0020
2025-05-05 03:00: 0.9975
2025-05-05 06:00: 0.0025
2025-05-05 08:00: 0.9980
2025-05-05 11:00: 0.0020
2025-05-05 13:00: 0.9980
2025-05-05 16:00: 0.0020
2025-05-05 18:00: 0.9980
2025-05-05 21:00: 0.0020
2025-05-05 23:00: 0.9980
2025-05-06 02:00: 0.0020
2025-05-06 04:00: 0.9980
2025-05-06 07:00: 0.0020
2025-05-06 09:00: 0.9980
2025-05-06 12:00: 0.0020
2025-05-06 14:00: 0.9985
2025-05-06 17:00: 0.0015
2025-05-06 19:00: 0.9985
2025-05-06 22:00: 0.0015
2025-05-07 00:00: 0.9985
2025-05-07 03:00: 0.0020
2025-05-07 05:00: 0.9985
2025-05-07 08:00: 0.0010
2025-05-07 10:00: 0.9995
2025-05-07 13:00: 0.0050
2025-05-07 15:00: 0.9955
2025-05-07 18:00: 0.0040
2025-05-07 20:00: 0.9960
2025-05-07 23:00: 0.0040
2025-05-08 01:00: 0.9960
2025-05-08 04:00: 0.0040
2025-05-08 06:00: 0.9960
Trade Summary: Total trades: 299, Buy volume: 111301.56, Sell volume: 41400.40, Average price: 0.8981, Price range: 0.0010 - 0.9990

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 525060
Question: Will there not be a new Pope in 2025?
Volume: 984579.376152
Price History:
2025-02-24 15:00: 0.2200
2025-02-24 19:00: 0.7700
2025-02-25 00:00: 0.3200
2025-02-25 04:00: 0.7050
2025-02-25 09:00: 0.2700
2025-02-25 13:00: 0.7350
2025-02-25 18:00: 0.2750
2025-02-25 22:00: 0.7000
2025-02-26 03:00: 0.2550
2025-02-26 07:00: 0.7450
2025-02-26 12:00: 0.2550
2025-02-26 16:00: 0.7350
2025-02-26 21:00: 0.2750
2025-02-27 01:00: 0.7200
2025-02-27 06:00: 0.3200
2025-02-27 10:00: 0.6750
2025-02-27 15:00: 0.3400
2025-02-27 19:00: 0.6500
2025-02-28 00:00: 0.3550
2025-02-28 04:00: 0.6200
2025-02-28 09:00: 0.3950
2025-02-28 13:00: 0.5900
2025-02-28 18:00: 0.3000
2025-02-28 22:00: 0.7450
2025-03-01 03:00: 0.2550
2025-03-01 07:00: 0.7550
2025-03-01 12:00: 0.3000
2025-03-01 16:00: 0.7250
2025-03-01 21:00: 0.3250
2025-03-02 01:00: 0.6350
Trade Summary: Total trades: 1000000, Buy volume: 84361886.42, Sell volume: 82084092.67, Average price: 0.5722, Price range: 0.0010 - 0.9990
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike, wash_trading

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 525060
Question: Will there not be a new Pope in 2025?
Volume: 984579.376152
Price History:
2025-03-02 06:00: 0.3050
2025-03-02 10:00: 0.7200
2025-03-02 15:00: 0.3100
2025-03-02 19:00: 0.7000
2025-03-03 00:00: 0.3650
2025-03-03 04:00: 0.6100
2025-03-03 09:00: 0.3800
2025-03-03 13:00: 0.5900
2025-03-03 18:00: 0.3100
2025-03-03 22:00: 0.7100
2025-03-04 03:00: 0.2850
2025-03-04 07:00: 0.7450
2025-03-04 12:00: 0.2700
2025-03-04 16:00: 0.7300
2025-03-04 21:00: 0.2950
2025-03-05 01:00: 0.7050
2025-03-05 06:00: 0.3300
2025-03-05 10:00: 0.6650
2025-03-05 15:00: 0.3450
2025-03-05 19:00: 0.6650
2025-03-06 00:00: 0.3350
2025-03-06 04:00: 0.6550
2025-03-06 09:00: 0.3550
2025-03-06 13:00: 0.6250
2025-03-06 18:00: 0.3750
2025-03-06 22:00: 0.5550
2025-03-07 03:00: 0.4100
2025-03-07 07:00: 0.5850
2025-03-07 12:00: 0.4150
2025-03-07 16:00: 0.5850
Trade Summary: Total trades: 1000000, Buy volume: 84361886.42, Sell volume: 82084092.67, Average price: 0.5722, Price range: 0.0010 - 0.9990
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike, wash_trading

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 525060
Question: Will there not be a new Pope in 2025?
Volume: 984579.376152
Price History:
2025-03-07 21:00: 0.4150
2025-03-08 01:00: 0.5850
2025-03-08 06:00: 0.4150
2025-03-08 10:00: 0.5850
2025-03-08 15:00: 0.4150
2025-03-08 19:00: 0.5850
2025-03-09 00:00: 0.4300
2025-03-09 05:00: 0.5650
2025-03-09 10:00: 0.4450
2025-03-09 14:00: 0.5550
2025-03-09 19:00: 0.4400
2025-03-09 23:00: 0.5650
2025-03-10 04:00: 0.4400
2025-03-10 08:00: 0.5600
2025-03-10 13:00: 0.4450
2025-03-10 17:00: 0.5100
2025-03-10 22:00: 0.5500
2025-03-11 02:00: 0.4450
2025-03-11 07:00: 0.5650
2025-03-11 11:00: 0.4250
2025-03-11 16:00: 0.5800
2025-03-11 20:00: 0.4200
2025-03-12 01:00: 0.5800
2025-03-12 05:00: 0.4150
2025-03-12 10:00: 0.5650
2025-03-12 14:00: 0.4300
2025-03-12 19:00: 0.5700
2025-03-12 23:00: 0.4250
2025-03-13 04:00: 0.5800
2025-03-13 08:00: 0.4200
Trade Summary: Total trades: 1000000, Buy volume: 84361886.42, Sell volume: 82084092.67, Average price: 0.5722, Price range: 0.0010 - 0.9990
Manipulation Indicators Detected: wash_trading

Output: No


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 525060
Question: Will there not be a new Pope in 2025?
Volume: 984579.376152
Price History:
2025-03-13 13:00: 0.5750
2025-03-13 17:00: 0.4250
2025-03-13 22:00: 0.5800
2025-03-14 02:00: 0.4200
2025-03-14 07:00: 0.5800
2025-03-14 11:00: 0.4200
2025-03-14 16:00: 0.5800
2025-03-14 20:00: 0.4200
2025-03-15 01:00: 0.5750
2025-03-15 05:00: 0.4650
2025-03-15 10:00: 0.5450
2025-03-15 14:00: 0.4600
2025-03-15 19:00: 0.5550
2025-03-15 23:00: 0.4450
2025-03-16 04:00: 0.5600
2025-03-16 08:00: 0.4450
2025-03-16 13:00: 0.5500
2025-03-16 17:00: 0.4450
2025-03-16 22:00: 0.5550
2025-03-17 02:00: 0.4500
2025-03-17 07:00: 0.5500
2025-03-17 11:00: 0.4550
2025-03-17 16:00: 0.5600
2025-03-17 20:00: 0.4450
2025-03-18 01:00: 0.5550
2025-03-18 05:00: 0.4500
2025-03-18 10:00: 0.5500
2025-03-18 14:00: 0.4500
2025-03-18 19:00: 0.5500
2025-03-18 23:00: 0.4500
Trade Summary: Total trades: 1000000, Buy volume: 84361886.42, Sell volume: 82084092.67, Average price: 0.5722, Price range: 0.0010 - 0.9990
Manipulation Indicators Detected: wash_trading

Output: No


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 525060
Question: Will there not be a new Pope in 2025?
Volume: 984579.376152
Price History:
2025-03-19 04:00: 0.5400
2025-03-19 08:00: 0.4600
2025-03-19 13:00: 0.5400
2025-03-19 17:00: 0.4600
2025-03-19 22:00: 0.5500
2025-03-20 02:00: 0.4500
2025-03-20 07:00: 0.5450
2025-03-20 11:00: 0.4550
2025-03-20 16:00: 0.5400
2025-03-20 20:00: 0.4550
2025-03-21 01:00: 0.5350
2025-03-21 05:00: 0.4700
2025-03-21 10:00: 0.5400
2025-03-21 14:00: 0.4600
2025-03-21 19:00: 0.5350
2025-03-21 23:00: 0.4650
2025-03-22 04:00: 0.5350
2025-03-22 08:00: 0.4700
2025-03-22 13:00: 0.5350
2025-03-22 17:00: 0.4100
2025-03-22 22:00: 0.5950
2025-03-23 02:00: 0.4100
2025-03-23 07:00: 0.5950
2025-03-23 11:00: 0.3800
2025-03-23 16:00: 0.6300
2025-03-23 20:00: 0.3950
2025-03-24 01:00: 0.6000
2025-03-24 05:00: 0.4000
2025-03-24 10:00: 0.6000
2025-03-24 14:00: 0.4000
Trade Summary: Total trades: 1000000, Buy volume: 84361886.42, Sell volume: 82084092.67, Average price: 0.5722, Price range: 0.0010 - 0.9990
Manipulation Indicators Detected: wash_trading

Output: No


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 525060
Question: Will there not be a new Pope in 2025?
Volume: 984579.376152
Price History:
2025-03-24 19:00: 0.6000
2025-03-24 23:00: 0.4050
2025-03-25 04:00: 0.5950
2025-03-25 08:00: 0.4050
2025-03-25 13:00: 0.5850
2025-03-25 17:00: 0.4100
2025-03-25 22:00: 0.5850
2025-03-26 02:00: 0.4200
2025-03-26 07:00: 0.5750
2025-03-26 11:00: 0.4250
2025-03-26 16:00: 0.5650
2025-03-26 20:00: 0.4300
2025-03-27 01:00: 0.5750
2025-03-27 05:00: 0.4250
2025-03-27 10:00: 0.5650
2025-03-27 14:00: 0.4300
2025-03-27 19:00: 0.5700
2025-03-27 23:00: 0.4300
2025-03-28 04:00: 0.5650
2025-03-28 08:00: 0.4600
2025-03-28 13:00: 0.5300
2025-03-28 17:00: 0.4550
2025-03-28 22:00: 0.5500
2025-03-29 02:00: 0.4550
2025-03-29 07:00: 0.5350
2025-03-29 11:00: 0.4650
2025-03-29 16:00: 0.5350
2025-03-29 20:00: 0.4650
2025-03-30 01:00: 0.5350
2025-03-30 05:00: 0.4650
Trade Summary: Total trades: 1000000, Buy volume: 84361886.42, Sell volume: 82084092.67, Average price: 0.5722, Price range: 0.0010 - 0.9990
Manipulation Indicators Detected: wash_trading

Output: No


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 525060
Question: Will there not be a new Pope in 2025?
Volume: 984579.376152
Price History:
2025-03-30 10:00: 0.5350
2025-03-30 14:00: 0.4650
2025-03-30 19:00: 0.5400
2025-03-30 23:00: 0.4600
2025-03-31 04:00: 0.5400
2025-03-31 08:00: 0.4650
2025-03-31 13:00: 0.5350
2025-03-31 17:00: 0.4600
2025-03-31 22:00: 0.5550
2025-04-01 02:00: 0.4550
2025-04-01 07:00: 0.5700
2025-04-01 11:00: 0.4400
2025-04-01 16:00: 0.5700
2025-04-01 20:00: 0.4400
2025-04-02 01:00: 0.5650
2025-04-02 05:00: 0.4350
2025-04-02 10:00: 0.5600
2025-04-02 14:00: 0.4400
2025-04-02 19:00: 0.5550
2025-04-02 23:00: 0.4450
2025-04-03 04:00: 0.5550
2025-04-03 08:00: 0.4450
2025-04-03 13:00: 0.5450
2025-04-03 17:00: 0.4450
2025-04-03 22:00: 0.5550
2025-04-04 02:00: 0.4450
2025-04-04 07:00: 0.5500
2025-04-04 11:00: 0.4500
2025-04-04 16:00: 0.5500
2025-04-04 20:00: 0.4500
Trade Summary: Total trades: 1000000, Buy volume: 84361886.42, Sell volume: 82084092.67, Average price: 0.5722, Price range: 0.0010 - 0.9990
Manipulation Indicators Detected: wash_trading

Output: No


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 525060
Question: Will there not be a new Pope in 2025?
Volume: 984579.376152
Price History:
2025-04-05 01:00: 0.5500
2025-04-05 05:00: 0.4350
2025-04-05 10:00: 0.5650
2025-04-05 14:00: 0.4350
2025-04-05 19:00: 0.5650
2025-04-05 23:00: 0.4350
2025-04-06 04:00: 0.5650
2025-04-06 08:00: 0.4350
2025-04-06 13:00: 0.5650
2025-04-06 17:00: 0.4350
2025-04-06 22:00: 0.5650
2025-04-07 02:00: 0.4350
2025-04-07 07:00: 0.5700
2025-04-07 11:00: 0.4250
2025-04-07 16:00: 0.5750
2025-04-07 20:00: 0.4250
2025-04-08 01:00: 0.5750
2025-04-08 05:00: 0.4250
2025-04-08 10:00: 0.5950
2025-04-08 14:00: 0.4050
2025-04-08 19:00: 0.5950
2025-04-08 23:00: 0.3900
2025-04-09 04:00: 0.6400
2025-04-09 08:00: 0.3800
2025-04-09 13:00: 0.6300
2025-04-09 17:00: 0.3750
2025-04-09 22:00: 0.6300
2025-04-10 02:00: 0.3750
2025-04-10 07:00: 0.6300
2025-04-10 11:00: 0.3650
Trade Summary: Total trades: 1000000, Buy volume: 84361886.42, Sell volume: 82084092.67, Average price: 0.5722, Price range: 0.0010 - 0.9990
Manipulation Indicators Detected: wash_trading

Output: No


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 525060
Question: Will there not be a new Pope in 2025?
Volume: 984579.376152
Price History:
2025-04-10 16:00: 0.6350
2025-04-10 20:00: 0.3650
2025-04-11 01:00: 0.6850
2025-04-11 05:00: 0.3650
2025-04-11 10:00: 0.6350
2025-04-11 14:00: 0.3550
2025-04-11 19:00: 0.6450
2025-04-11 23:00: 0.3550
2025-04-12 04:00: 0.6450
2025-04-12 08:00: 0.3550
2025-04-12 13:00: 0.6450
2025-04-12 17:00: 0.3550
2025-04-12 22:00: 0.6450
2025-04-13 02:00: 0.3550
2025-04-13 07:00: 0.6450
2025-04-13 11:00: 0.3700
2025-04-13 16:00: 0.6300
2025-04-13 20:00: 0.3700
2025-04-14 01:00: 0.6300
2025-04-14 05:00: 0.3700
2025-04-14 10:00: 0.6300
2025-04-14 14:00: 0.3650
2025-04-14 19:00: 0.6450
2025-04-14 23:00: 0.3400
2025-04-15 04:00: 0.6650
2025-04-15 08:00: 0.3350
2025-04-15 13:00: 0.6650
2025-04-15 17:00: 0.3350
2025-04-15 22:00: 0.6650
2025-04-16 02:00: 0.3350
Trade Summary: Total trades: 1000000, Buy volume: 84361886.42, Sell volume: 82084092.67, Average price: 0.5722, Price range: 0.0010 - 0.9990
Manipulation Indicators Detected: wash_trading

Output: No


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 525060
Question: Will there not be a new Pope in 2025?
Volume: 984579.376152
Price History:
2025-04-16 07:00: 0.6650
2025-04-16 11:00: 0.3350
2025-04-16 16:00: 0.6650
2025-04-16 20:00: 0.3350
2025-04-17 01:00: 0.6450
2025-04-17 05:00: 0.3400
2025-04-17 10:00: 0.6600
2025-04-17 14:00: 0.3400
2025-04-17 19:00: 0.6600
2025-04-17 23:00: 0.3400
2025-04-18 04:00: 0.6600
2025-04-18 08:00: 0.3400
2025-04-18 13:00: 0.6600
2025-04-18 17:00: 0.3400
2025-04-18 22:00: 0.6600
2025-04-19 02:00: 0.3400
2025-04-19 07:00: 0.6650
2025-04-19 11:00: 0.3350
2025-04-19 16:00: 0.6550
2025-04-19 20:00: 0.3450
2025-04-20 01:00: 0.6550
2025-04-20 05:00: 0.3450
2025-04-20 10:00: 0.6550
2025-04-20 14:00: 0.3450
2025-04-20 19:00: 0.6600
2025-04-20 23:00: 0.3400
2025-04-21 04:00: 0.3350
2025-04-21 08:00: 0.9960
2025-04-21 13:00: 0.0020
2025-04-21 17:00: 0.9980
Trade Summary: Total trades: 1000000, Buy volume: 84361886.42, Sell volume: 82084092.67, Average price: 0.5722, Price range: 0.0010 - 0.9990
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike, wash_trading

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 525060
Question: Will there not be a new Pope in 2025?
Volume: 984579.376152
Price History:
2025-04-21 22:00: 0.0025
2025-04-22 02:00: 0.9975
2025-04-22 07:00: 0.0030
2025-04-22 11:00: 0.9935
2025-04-22 16:00: 0.0050
2025-04-22 20:00: 0.9950
2025-04-23 01:00: 0.0050
2025-04-23 05:00: 0.9960
2025-04-23 10:00: 0.0055
2025-04-23 14:00: 0.9955
2025-04-23 19:00: 0.0060
2025-04-23 23:00: 0.9940
2025-04-24 04:00: 0.0055
2025-04-24 08:00: 0.9930
2025-04-24 13:00: 0.0050
2025-04-24 17:00: 0.9950
2025-04-24 22:00: 0.0050
2025-04-25 02:00: 0.9950
2025-04-25 07:00: 0.0050
2025-04-25 11:00: 0.9950
2025-04-25 16:00: 0.0050
2025-04-25 20:00: 0.9955
2025-04-26 01:00: 0.0045
2025-04-26 05:00: 0.9960
2025-04-26 10:00: 0.0045
2025-04-26 14:00: 0.9955
2025-04-26 19:00: 0.0045
2025-04-26 23:00: 0.9945
2025-04-27 04:00: 0.0050
2025-04-27 08:00: 0.9945
Trade Summary: Total trades: 525474, Buy volume: 45031421.97, Sell volume: 21027551.40, Average price: 0.7962, Price range: 0.0030 - 0.9970
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike, wash_trading

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 525060
Question: Will there not be a new Pope in 2025?
Volume: 984579.376152
Price History:
2025-04-27 13:00: 0.0055
2025-04-27 17:00: 0.9935
2025-04-27 22:00: 0.0055
2025-04-28 02:00: 0.9955
2025-04-28 07:00: 0.0065
2025-04-28 11:00: 0.9940
2025-04-28 16:00: 0.0055
2025-04-28 20:00: 0.9945
2025-04-29 01:00: 0.0055
2025-04-29 05:00: 0.9945
2025-04-29 10:00: 0.0060
2025-04-29 14:00: 0.9940
2025-04-29 19:00: 0.0060
2025-04-29 23:00: 0.9960
2025-04-30 04:00: 0.0045
2025-04-30 08:00: 0.9950
2025-04-30 13:00: 0.0035
2025-04-30 17:00: 0.9975
2025-04-30 22:00: 0.0025
2025-05-01 02:00: 0.9975
2025-05-01 07:00: 0.0030
2025-05-01 11:00: 0.9975
2025-05-01 16:00: 0.0030
2025-05-01 20:00: 0.9970
2025-05-02 01:00: 0.0040
2025-05-02 05:00: 0.9965
2025-05-02 10:00: 0.0035
2025-05-02 14:00: 0.9965
2025-05-02 19:00: 0.0030
2025-05-02 23:00: 0.9970
Trade Summary: Total trades: 458241, Buy volume: 38808287.84, Sell volume: 61015131.87, Average price: 0.3003, Price range: 0.0020 - 0.9980
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike, wash_trading

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 525060
Question: Will there not be a new Pope in 2025?
Volume: 984579.376152
Price History:
2025-05-03 04:00: 0.0035
2025-05-03 08:00: 0.9965
2025-05-03 13:00: 0.0035
2025-05-03 17:00: 0.9965
2025-05-03 22:00: 0.0035
2025-05-04 02:00: 0.9965
2025-05-04 07:00: 0.0035
2025-05-04 11:00: 0.9970
2025-05-04 16:00: 0.0025
2025-05-04 20:00: 0.9980
2025-05-05 01:00: 0.0020
2025-05-05 05:00: 0.9975
2025-05-05 10:00: 0.0020
2025-05-05 14:00: 0.9980
2025-05-05 19:00: 0.0020
2025-05-05 23:00: 0.9980
2025-05-06 04:00: 0.0020
2025-05-06 08:00: 0.9980
2025-05-06 13:00: 0.0015
2025-05-06 17:00: 0.9985
2025-05-06 22:00: 0.0015
2025-05-07 02:00: 0.9980
2025-05-07 07:00: 0.0010
2025-05-07 11:00: 0.9960
2025-05-07 16:00: 0.0040
2025-05-07 20:00: 0.9960
2025-05-08 01:00: 0.0040
2025-05-08 05:00: 0.9960
2025-05-08 10:00: 0.0025
2025-05-08 14:00: 0.9995
Trade Summary: Total trades: 299, Buy volume: 111301.56, Sell volume: 41400.40, Average price: 0.8981, Price range: 0.0010 - 0.9990
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike, wash_trading

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 515797
Question: Will Robert Habeck be the next Chancellor of Germany?
Volume: 4469233.969956
Price History:
2024-12-16 16:00: 0.0900
2024-12-17 00:00: 0.9740
2024-12-17 09:00: 0.0275
2024-12-17 17:00: 0.9755
2024-12-18 02:00: 0.0260
2024-12-18 10:00: 0.9740
2024-12-18 19:00: 0.0220
2024-12-19 03:00: 0.9775
2024-12-19 12:00: 0.0255
2024-12-19 20:00: 0.9775
2024-12-20 05:00: 0.0190
2024-12-20 13:00: 0.9825
2024-12-20 22:00: 0.0140
2024-12-21 06:00: 0.9860
2024-12-21 15:00: 0.0170
2024-12-21 23:00: 0.9825
2024-12-22 08:00: 0.0170
2024-12-22 16:00: 0.9845
2024-12-23 01:00: 0.0090
2024-12-23 09:00: 0.9915
2024-12-23 18:00: 0.0140
2024-12-24 02:00: 0.9895
2024-12-24 11:00: 0.0155
2024-12-24 19:00: 0.9855
2024-12-25 04:00: 0.0145
2024-12-25 12:00: 0.9880
2024-12-25 21:00: 0.0155
2024-12-26 05:00: 0.9855
2024-12-26 14:00: 0.0145
2024-12-26 22:00: 0.9860
Trade Summary: Total trades: 1000000, Buy volume: 137632216.93, Sell volume: 76013085.59, Average price: 0.6624, Price range: 0.0010 - 0.9990
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike, wash_trading

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 515797
Question: Will Robert Habeck be the next Chancellor of Germany?
Volume: 4469233.969956
Price History:
2024-12-27 12:00: 0.0130
2024-12-27 20:00: 0.9875
2024-12-28 05:00: 0.0120
2024-12-28 13:00: 0.9870
2024-12-28 22:00: 0.0130
2024-12-29 06:00: 0.9865
2024-12-29 15:00: 0.0130
2024-12-29 23:00: 0.9900
2024-12-30 08:00: 0.0085
2024-12-30 16:00: 0.9900
2024-12-31 01:00: 0.0085
2024-12-31 09:00: 0.9920
2024-12-31 18:00: 0.0075
2025-01-01 02:00: 0.9925
2025-01-01 11:00: 0.0055
2025-01-01 19:00: 0.9935
2025-01-02 04:00: 0.0065
2025-01-02 12:00: 0.9945
2025-01-02 21:00: 0.0055
2025-01-03 05:00: 0.9945
2025-01-03 14:00: 0.0060
2025-01-03 22:00: 0.9900
2025-01-04 07:00: 0.0095
2025-01-04 15:00: 0.9930
2025-01-05 00:00: 0.0075
2025-01-05 08:00: 0.9935
2025-01-05 17:00: 0.0055
2025-01-06 01:00: 0.9945
2025-01-06 10:00: 0.0055
2025-01-06 18:00: 0.9945
Trade Summary: Total trades: 1000000, Buy volume: 137632216.93, Sell volume: 76013085.59, Average price: 0.6624, Price range: 0.0010 - 0.9990
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike, wash_trading

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 515797
Question: Will Robert Habeck be the next Chancellor of Germany?
Volume: 4469233.969956
Price History:
2025-01-07 08:00: 0.0055
2025-01-07 16:00: 0.9945
2025-01-08 01:00: 0.0065
2025-01-08 09:00: 0.9935
2025-01-08 18:00: 0.0060
2025-01-09 02:00: 0.9940
2025-01-09 11:00: 0.0065
2025-01-09 19:00: 0.9935
2025-01-10 04:00: 0.0070
2025-01-10 12:00: 0.9915
2025-01-10 21:00: 0.0135
2025-01-11 05:00: 0.9870
2025-01-11 14:00: 0.0145
2025-01-11 22:00: 0.9880
2025-01-12 07:00: 0.0120
2025-01-12 15:00: 0.9875
2025-01-13 00:00: 0.0130
2025-01-13 08:00: 0.9880
2025-01-13 17:00: 0.0145
2025-01-14 01:00: 0.9855
2025-01-14 10:00: 0.0130
2025-01-14 18:00: 0.9795
2025-01-15 03:00: 0.0185
2025-01-15 11:00: 0.9815
2025-01-15 20:00: 0.0215
2025-01-16 04:00: 0.9785
2025-01-16 13:00: 0.0215
2025-01-16 21:00: 0.9790
2025-01-17 06:00: 0.0185
2025-01-17 14:00: 0.9770
Trade Summary: Total trades: 1000000, Buy volume: 137632216.93, Sell volume: 76013085.59, Average price: 0.6624, Price range: 0.0010 - 0.9990
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike, wash_trading

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 515797
Question: Will Robert Habeck be the next Chancellor of Germany?
Volume: 4469233.969956
Price History:
2025-01-18 04:00: 0.0255
2025-01-18 12:00: 0.9740
2025-01-18 21:00: 0.0235
2025-01-19 05:00: 0.9770
2025-01-19 14:00: 0.0220
2025-01-19 22:00: 0.9780
2025-01-20 07:00: 0.0235
2025-01-20 15:00: 0.9830
2025-01-21 00:00: 0.0165
2025-01-21 08:00: 0.9830
2025-01-21 17:00: 0.0150
2025-01-22 01:00: 0.9830
2025-01-22 10:00: 0.0110
2025-01-22 18:00: 0.9885
2025-01-23 03:00: 0.0100
2025-01-23 11:00: 0.9915
2025-01-23 20:00: 0.0085
2025-01-24 04:00: 0.9915
2025-01-24 13:00: 0.0065
2025-01-24 21:00: 0.9940
2025-01-25 06:00: 0.0065
2025-01-25 14:00: 0.9930
2025-01-25 23:00: 0.0055
2025-01-26 07:00: 0.9945
2025-01-26 16:00: 0.0055
2025-01-27 00:00: 0.9945
2025-01-27 09:00: 0.0055
2025-01-27 17:00: 0.9945
2025-01-28 02:00: 0.0055
2025-01-28 10:00: 0.9945
Trade Summary: Total trades: 1000000, Buy volume: 137632216.93, Sell volume: 76013085.59, Average price: 0.6624, Price range: 0.0010 - 0.9990
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike, wash_trading

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 515797
Question: Will Robert Habeck be the next Chancellor of Germany?
Volume: 4469233.969956
Price History:
2025-01-29 00:00: 0.0055
2025-01-29 08:00: 0.9945
2025-01-29 17:00: 0.0085
2025-01-30 01:00: 0.9935
2025-01-30 10:00: 0.0085
2025-01-30 18:00: 0.9900
2025-01-31 03:00: 0.0135
2025-01-31 11:00: 0.9860
2025-01-31 20:00: 0.0185
2025-02-01 04:00: 0.9830
2025-02-01 13:00: 0.0180
2025-02-01 21:00: 0.9835
2025-02-02 06:00: 0.0170
2025-02-02 14:00: 0.9810
2025-02-02 23:00: 0.0155
2025-02-03 07:00: 0.9845
2025-02-03 16:00: 0.0180
2025-02-04 00:00: 0.9825
2025-02-04 09:00: 0.0180
2025-02-04 17:00: 0.9830
2025-02-05 02:00: 0.0160
2025-02-05 10:00: 0.9830
2025-02-05 19:00: 0.0170
2025-02-06 03:00: 0.9805
2025-02-06 12:00: 0.0165
2025-02-06 20:00: 0.9815
2025-02-07 05:00: 0.0190
2025-02-07 13:00: 0.9830
2025-02-07 22:00: 0.0170
2025-02-08 06:00: 0.9835
Trade Summary: Total trades: 1000000, Buy volume: 137632216.93, Sell volume: 76013085.59, Average price: 0.6624, Price range: 0.0010 - 0.9990
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike, wash_trading

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 515797
Question: Will Robert Habeck be the next Chancellor of Germany?
Volume: 4469233.969956
Price History:
2025-02-08 20:00: 0.0105
2025-02-09 04:00: 0.9885
2025-02-09 13:00: 0.0105
2025-02-09 21:00: 0.9935
2025-02-10 06:00: 0.0090
2025-02-10 14:00: 0.9910
2025-02-10 23:00: 0.0085
2025-02-11 07:00: 0.9900
2025-02-11 16:00: 0.0095
2025-02-12 00:00: 0.9910
2025-02-12 09:00: 0.0085
2025-02-12 17:00: 0.9915
2025-02-13 02:00: 0.0090
2025-02-13 10:00: 0.9910
2025-02-13 19:00: 0.0085
2025-02-14 03:00: 0.9915
2025-02-14 12:00: 0.0085
2025-02-14 20:00: 0.9915
2025-02-15 05:00: 0.0075
2025-02-15 13:00: 0.9915
2025-02-15 22:00: 0.0075
2025-02-16 06:00: 0.9925
2025-02-16 15:00: 0.0080
2025-02-16 23:00: 0.9925
2025-02-17 08:00: 0.0070
2025-02-17 16:00: 0.9930
2025-02-18 01:00: 0.0065
2025-02-18 09:00: 0.9945
2025-02-18 18:00: 0.0055
2025-02-19 02:00: 0.9955
Trade Summary: Total trades: 429570, Buy volume: 37549084.90, Sell volume: 20150609.22, Average price: 0.8566, Price range: 0.0040 - 0.9970
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike, wash_trading

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 515797
Question: Will Robert Habeck be the next Chancellor of Germany?
Volume: 4469233.969956
Price History:
2025-02-19 16:00: 0.0035
2025-02-20 00:00: 0.9955
2025-02-20 09:00: 0.0040
2025-02-20 17:00: 0.9960
2025-02-21 02:00: 0.0035
2025-02-21 10:00: 0.9960
2025-02-21 19:00: 0.0040
2025-02-22 03:00: 0.9960
2025-02-22 12:00: 0.0040
2025-02-22 20:00: 0.9965
2025-02-23 05:00: 0.0035
2025-02-23 13:00: 0.9980
2025-02-23 22:00: 0.0005
2025-02-24 06:00: 0.9990
2025-02-24 15:00: 0.0005
2025-02-24 23:00: 0.9995
2025-02-25 08:00: 0.0005
2025-02-25 16:00: 0.9995
2025-02-26 01:00: 0.0005
2025-02-26 09:00: 0.9995
2025-02-26 18:00: 0.0005
2025-02-27 02:00: 0.9995
2025-02-27 11:00: 0.0005
2025-02-27 19:00: 0.9995
2025-02-28 04:00: 0.0005
2025-02-28 12:00: 0.9995
2025-02-28 21:00: 0.0005
2025-03-01 05:00: 0.9995
2025-03-01 14:00: 0.0005
2025-03-01 22:00: 0.9995
Trade Summary: Total trades: 565929, Buy volume: 95185755.35, Sell volume: 55850644.56, Average price: 0.5129, Price range: 0.0010 - 0.9990
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike, wash_trading

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 515797
Question: Will Robert Habeck be the next Chancellor of Germany?
Volume: 4469233.969956
Price History:
2025-03-02 12:00: 0.0005
2025-03-02 20:00: 0.9995
2025-03-03 05:00: 0.0005
2025-03-03 13:00: 0.9995
2025-03-03 22:00: 0.0005
2025-03-04 06:00: 0.9995
2025-03-04 15:00: 0.0005
2025-03-04 23:00: 0.9995
2025-03-05 08:00: 0.0005
2025-03-05 16:00: 0.9995
2025-03-06 01:00: 0.0005
2025-03-06 09:00: 0.9995
2025-03-06 18:00: 0.0005
2025-03-07 02:00: 0.9995
2025-03-07 11:00: 0.0005
2025-03-07 19:00: 0.9995
2025-03-08 04:00: 0.0005
2025-03-08 12:00: 0.9995
2025-03-08 21:00: 0.0005
2025-03-09 06:00: 0.9995
2025-03-09 15:00: 0.0005
2025-03-09 23:00: 0.9995
2025-03-10 08:00: 0.0005
2025-03-10 16:00: 0.9995
2025-03-11 01:00: 0.0005
2025-03-11 09:00: 0.9995
2025-03-11 18:00: 0.0005
2025-03-12 02:00: 0.9995
2025-03-12 11:00: 0.0005
2025-03-12 19:00: 0.9995
Trade Summary: Total trades: 171, Buy volume: 1015797.95, Sell volume: 6025.49, Average price: 0.1761, Price range: 0.0010 - 0.9990
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 515797
Question: Will Robert Habeck be the next Chancellor of Germany?
Volume: 4469233.969956
Price History:
2025-03-13 09:00: 0.0005
2025-03-13 17:00: 0.9995
2025-03-14 02:00: 0.0005
2025-03-14 10:00: 0.9995
2025-03-14 19:00: 0.0005
2025-03-15 03:00: 0.9995
2025-03-15 12:00: 0.0005
2025-03-15 20:00: 0.9995
2025-03-16 05:00: 0.0005
2025-03-16 13:00: 0.9995
2025-03-16 22:00: 0.0005
2025-03-17 06:00: 0.9995
2025-03-17 15:00: 0.0005
2025-03-17 23:00: 0.9995
2025-03-18 08:00: 0.0005
2025-03-18 16:00: 0.9995
2025-03-19 01:00: 0.0005
2025-03-19 09:00: 0.9995
2025-03-19 18:00: 0.0005
2025-03-20 02:00: 0.9995
2025-03-20 11:00: 0.0005
2025-03-20 19:00: 0.9995
2025-03-21 04:00: 0.0005
2025-03-21 12:00: 0.9995
2025-03-21 21:00: 0.0005
2025-03-22 05:00: 0.9995
2025-03-22 14:00: 0.0005
2025-03-22 22:00: 0.9995
2025-03-23 07:00: 0.0005
2025-03-23 15:00: 0.9995
Trade Summary: Total trades: 131, Buy volume: 947650.00, Sell volume: 1375.43, Average price: 0.7095, Price range: 0.0010 - 0.9990
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 515797
Question: Will Robert Habeck be the next Chancellor of Germany?
Volume: 4469233.969956
Price History:
2025-03-24 05:00: 0.0005
2025-03-24 13:00: 0.9995
2025-03-24 22:00: 0.0005
2025-03-25 06:00: 0.9995
2025-03-25 15:00: 0.0005
2025-03-25 23:00: 0.9995
2025-03-26 08:00: 0.0005
2025-03-26 16:00: 0.9995
2025-03-27 01:00: 0.0005
2025-03-27 09:00: 0.9995
2025-03-27 18:00: 0.0005
2025-03-28 02:00: 0.9995
2025-03-28 11:00: 0.0005
2025-03-28 19:00: 0.9995
2025-03-29 04:00: 0.0005
2025-03-29 12:00: 0.9995
2025-03-29 21:00: 0.0005
2025-03-30 05:00: 0.9995
2025-03-30 14:00: 0.0005
2025-03-30 22:00: 0.9995
2025-03-31 07:00: 0.0005
2025-03-31 15:00: 0.9995
2025-04-01 00:00: 0.0010
2025-04-01 08:00: 0.9990
2025-04-01 17:00: 0.0010
2025-04-02 01:00: 0.9990
2025-04-02 10:00: 0.0010
2025-04-02 18:00: 0.9990
2025-04-03 03:00: 0.0010
2025-04-03 11:00: 0.9995
Trade Summary: Total trades: 87, Buy volume: 370377.28, Sell volume: 689.00, Average price: 0.2074, Price range: 0.0010 - 0.9990
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 515797
Question: Will Robert Habeck be the next Chancellor of Germany?
Volume: 4469233.969956
Price History:
2025-04-04 01:00: 0.0005
2025-04-04 09:00: 0.9995
2025-04-04 18:00: 0.0005
2025-04-05 02:00: 0.9995
2025-04-05 11:00: 0.0005
2025-04-05 19:00: 0.9995
2025-04-06 04:00: 0.0005
2025-04-06 12:00: 0.9995
2025-04-06 21:00: 0.0005
2025-04-07 05:00: 0.9995
2025-04-07 14:00: 0.0005
2025-04-07 22:00: 0.9995
2025-04-08 07:00: 0.0005
2025-04-08 15:00: 0.9995
2025-04-09 00:00: 0.0005
2025-04-09 08:00: 0.9995
2025-04-09 17:00: 0.0005
2025-04-10 01:00: 0.9995
2025-04-10 10:00: 0.0005
2025-04-10 18:00: 0.9995
2025-04-11 03:00: 0.0005
2025-04-11 11:00: 0.9995
2025-04-11 20:00: 0.0010
2025-04-12 04:00: 0.9990
2025-04-12 13:00: 0.0010
2025-04-12 21:00: 0.9995
2025-04-13 06:00: 0.0005
2025-04-13 14:00: 0.9995
2025-04-13 23:00: 0.0005
2025-04-14 07:00: 0.9995
Trade Summary: Total trades: 66, Buy volume: 736416.39, Sell volume: 1236.47, Average price: 0.5756, Price range: 0.0010 - 0.9990
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike, wash_trading

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 515797
Question: Will Robert Habeck be the next Chancellor of Germany?
Volume: 4469233.969956
Price History:
2025-04-14 21:00: 0.0005
2025-04-15 05:00: 0.9995
2025-04-15 14:00: 0.0005
2025-04-15 22:00: 0.9995
2025-04-16 07:00: 0.0005
2025-04-16 15:00: 0.9995
2025-04-17 00:00: 0.0005
2025-04-17 08:00: 0.9995
2025-04-17 17:00: 0.0005
2025-04-18 01:00: 0.9995
2025-04-18 10:00: 0.0005
2025-04-18 18:00: 0.9995
2025-04-19 03:00: 0.0005
2025-04-19 11:00: 0.9995
2025-04-19 20:00: 0.0005
2025-04-20 04:00: 0.9995
2025-04-20 13:00: 0.0005
2025-04-20 21:00: 0.9995
2025-04-21 06:00: 0.0005
2025-04-21 14:00: 0.9995
2025-04-21 23:00: 0.0005
2025-04-22 07:00: 0.9995
2025-04-22 16:00: 0.0005
2025-04-23 00:00: 0.9995
2025-04-23 09:00: 0.0005
2025-04-23 17:00: 0.9990
2025-04-24 02:00: 0.0010
2025-04-24 10:00: 0.9990
2025-04-24 19:00: 0.0010
2025-04-25 03:00: 0.9990
Trade Summary: Total trades: 38, Buy volume: 8451.67, Sell volume: 2411.42, Average price: 0.6838, Price range: 0.0010 - 0.9990
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike, wash_trading

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 515797
Question: Will Robert Habeck be the next Chancellor of Germany?
Volume: 4469233.969956
Price History:
2025-04-25 17:00: 0.0010
2025-04-26 01:00: 0.9990
2025-04-26 10:00: 0.0010
2025-04-26 18:00: 0.9990
2025-04-27 03:00: 0.0010
2025-04-27 11:00: 0.9990
2025-04-27 20:00: 0.0010
2025-04-28 04:00: 0.9990
2025-04-28 13:00: 0.0010
2025-04-28 21:00: 0.9990
2025-04-29 06:00: 0.0010
2025-04-29 14:00: 0.9990
2025-04-29 23:00: 0.0010
2025-04-30 07:00: 0.9990
2025-04-30 16:00: 0.0015
2025-05-01 00:00: 0.9990
2025-05-01 09:00: 0.0010
2025-05-01 17:00: 0.9990
2025-05-02 02:00: 0.0010
2025-05-02 10:00: 0.9990
2025-05-02 19:00: 0.0005
2025-05-03 03:00: 0.9995
2025-05-03 12:00: 0.0005
2025-05-03 20:00: 0.9995
2025-05-04 05:00: 0.0005
2025-05-04 13:00: 0.9995
2025-05-04 22:00: 0.0005
2025-05-05 06:00: 0.9995
2025-05-05 15:00: 0.0005
2025-05-05 23:00: 0.9995
Trade Summary: Total trades: 12, Buy volume: 29682.17, Sell volume: 94.00, Average price: 0.4999, Price range: 0.0010 - 0.9990
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 515805
Question: Will Jan van Aken be the next Chancellor of Germany?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 3638279.531225
Price History:
2024-12-16 16:00: 0.0900
2024-12-16 21:00: 0.0040
2024-12-17 02:00: 0.0035
2024-12-17 07:00: 0.0035
2024-12-17 12:00: 0.0035
2024-12-17 17:00: 0.0045
2024-12-17 22:00: 0.0045
2024-12-18 03:00: 0.0045
2024-12-18 08:00: 0.0045
2024-12-18 13:00: 0.0040
2024-12-18 18:00: 0.0040
2024-12-18 23:00: 0.0040
2024-12-19 04:00: 0.0040
2024-12-19 09:00: 0.0045
2024-12-19 14:00: 0.0045
2024-12-19 19:00: 0.0045
2024-12-20 00:00: 0.0045
2024-12-20 05:00: 0.0040
2024-12-20 10:00: 0.0040
2024-12-20 15:00: 0.0040
2024-12-20 20:00: 0.0035
2024-12-21 01:00: 0.0030
2024-12-21 06:00: 0.0030
2024-12-21 11:00: 0.0030
2024-12-21 16:00: 0.0030
2024-12-21 21:00: 0.0030
2024-12-22 02:00: 0.0030
2024-12-22 07:00: 0.0030
2024-12-22 12:00: 0.0030
2024-12-22 17:00: 0.0030
2024-12-22 22:00: 0.0025
2024-12-23 03:00: 0.0025
2024-12-23 08:00: 0.0025
2024-12-23 13:00: 0.0025
2024-12-23 18:00: 0.0025
2024-12-23 23:00: 0.0025
2024-12-24 04:00: 0.0030
2024-12-24 09:00: 0.0030
2024-12-24 14:00: 0.0030
2024-12-24 19:00: 0.0030
2024-12-25 00:00: 0.0030
2024-12-25 05:00: 0.0030
2024-12-25 10:00: 0.0030
2024-12-25 15:00: 0.0030
2024-12-25 20:00: 0.0040
2024-12-26 01:00: 0.0040
2024-12-26 06:00: 0.0035
2024-12-26 11:00: 0.0035
2024-12-26 16:00: 0.0035
2024-12-26 21:00: 0.0025
Trade Summary: Total trades: 1000000, Buy volume: 771903630.28, Sell volume: 573962240.57, Average price: 0.6861, Price range: 0.0010 - 0.9990

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 515805
Question: Will Jan van Aken be the next Chancellor of Germany?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 3638279.531225
Price History:
2024-12-27 12:00: 0.0025
2024-12-27 17:00: 0.0025
2024-12-27 22:00: 0.0025
2024-12-28 03:00: 0.0035
2024-12-28 08:00: 0.0035
2024-12-28 13:00: 0.0030
2024-12-28 18:00: 0.0025
2024-12-28 23:00: 0.0035
2024-12-29 04:00: 0.0030
2024-12-29 09:00: 0.0030
2024-12-29 14:00: 0.0025
2024-12-29 19:00: 0.0025
2024-12-30 00:00: 0.0025
2024-12-30 05:00: 0.0025
2024-12-30 10:00: 0.0025
2024-12-30 15:00: 0.0025
2024-12-30 20:00: 0.0025
2024-12-31 01:00: 0.0025
2024-12-31 06:00: 0.0025
2024-12-31 11:00: 0.0030
2024-12-31 16:00: 0.0045
2024-12-31 21:00: 0.0040
2025-01-01 02:00: 0.0040
2025-01-01 07:00: 0.0025
2025-01-01 12:00: 0.0025
2025-01-01 17:00: 0.0025
2025-01-01 22:00: 0.0025
2025-01-02 03:00: 0.0025
2025-01-02 08:00: 0.0025
2025-01-02 13:00: 0.0025
2025-01-02 18:00: 0.0025
2025-01-02 23:00: 0.0025
2025-01-03 04:00: 0.0025
2025-01-03 09:00: 0.0025
2025-01-03 14:00: 0.0025
2025-01-03 19:00: 0.0025
2025-01-04 00:00: 0.0025
2025-01-04 05:00: 0.0025
2025-01-04 10:00: 0.0025
2025-01-04 15:00: 0.0025
2025-01-04 20:00: 0.0025
2025-01-05 01:00: 0.0025
2025-01-05 06:00: 0.0025
2025-01-05 11:00: 0.0025
2025-01-05 16:00: 0.0025
2025-01-05 21:00: 0.0025
2025-01-06 02:00: 0.0025
2025-01-06 07:00: 0.0025
2025-01-06 12:00: 0.0025
2025-01-06 17:00: 0.0025
Trade Summary: Total trades: 1000000, Buy volume: 771903630.28, Sell volume: 573962240.57, Average price: 0.6861, Price range: 0.0010 - 0.9990

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 515805
Question: Will Jan van Aken be the next Chancellor of Germany?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 3638279.531225
Price History:
2025-01-07 08:00: 0.0025
2025-01-07 13:00: 0.0025
2025-01-07 18:00: 0.0025
2025-01-07 23:00: 0.0025
2025-01-08 04:00: 0.0025
2025-01-08 09:00: 0.0025
2025-01-08 14:00: 0.0025
2025-01-08 19:00: 0.0025
2025-01-09 00:00: 0.0025
2025-01-09 05:00: 0.0025
2025-01-09 10:00: 0.0025
2025-01-09 15:00: 0.0025
2025-01-09 20:00: 0.0025
2025-01-10 01:00: 0.0025
2025-01-10 06:00: 0.0025
2025-01-10 11:00: 0.0025
2025-01-10 16:00: 0.0025
2025-01-10 21:00: 0.0025
2025-01-11 02:00: 0.0025
2025-01-11 07:00: 0.0025
2025-01-11 12:00: 0.0025
2025-01-11 17:00: 0.0025
2025-01-11 22:00: 0.0025
2025-01-12 03:00: 0.0025
2025-01-12 08:00: 0.0025
2025-01-12 13:00: 0.0025
2025-01-12 18:00: 0.0025
2025-01-12 23:00: 0.0025
2025-01-13 04:00: 0.0025
2025-01-13 09:00: 0.0025
2025-01-13 14:00: 0.0025
2025-01-13 19:00: 0.0025
2025-01-14 00:00: 0.0025
2025-01-14 05:00: 0.0025
2025-01-14 10:00: 0.0025
2025-01-14 15:00: 0.0025
2025-01-14 20:00: 0.0025
2025-01-15 01:00: 0.0025
2025-01-15 06:00: 0.0025
2025-01-15 11:00: 0.0025
2025-01-15 16:00: 0.0025
2025-01-15 21:00: 0.0025
2025-01-16 02:00: 0.0025
2025-01-16 07:00: 0.0025
2025-01-16 12:00: 0.0025
2025-01-16 17:00: 0.0025
2025-01-16 22:00: 0.0025
2025-01-17 03:00: 0.0025
2025-01-17 08:00: 0.0025
2025-01-17 13:00: 0.0025
Trade Summary: Total trades: 1000000, Buy volume: 771903630.28, Sell volume: 573962240.57, Average price: 0.6861, Price range: 0.0010 - 0.9990

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 515805
Question: Will Jan van Aken be the next Chancellor of Germany?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 3638279.531225
Price History:
2025-01-18 04:00: 0.0025
2025-01-18 09:00: 0.0025
2025-01-18 14:00: 0.0025
2025-01-18 19:00: 0.0025
2025-01-19 00:00: 0.0025
2025-01-19 05:00: 0.0025
2025-01-19 10:00: 0.0035
2025-01-19 15:00: 0.0035
2025-01-19 20:00: 0.0035
2025-01-20 01:00: 0.0035
2025-01-20 06:00: 0.0035
2025-01-20 11:00: 0.0035
2025-01-20 16:00: 0.0035
2025-01-20 21:00: 0.0035
2025-01-21 02:00: 0.0035
2025-01-21 07:00: 0.0035
2025-01-21 12:00: 0.0035
2025-01-21 17:00: 0.0035
2025-01-21 22:00: 0.0035
2025-01-22 03:00: 0.0035
2025-01-22 08:00: 0.0035
2025-01-22 13:00: 0.0035
2025-01-22 18:00: 0.0035
2025-01-22 23:00: 0.0035
2025-01-23 04:00: 0.0045
2025-01-23 09:00: 0.0045
2025-01-23 14:00: 0.0045
2025-01-23 19:00: 0.0045
2025-01-24 00:00: 0.0045
2025-01-24 05:00: 0.0055
2025-01-24 10:00: 0.0055
2025-01-24 15:00: 0.0055
2025-01-24 20:00: 0.0055
2025-01-25 01:00: 0.0055
2025-01-25 06:00: 0.0055
2025-01-25 11:00: 0.0055
2025-01-25 16:00: 0.0055
2025-01-25 21:00: 0.0055
2025-01-26 02:00: 0.0055
2025-01-26 07:00: 0.0055
2025-01-26 12:00: 0.0055
2025-01-26 17:00: 0.0055
2025-01-26 22:00: 0.0055
2025-01-27 03:00: 0.0055
2025-01-27 08:00: 0.0055
2025-01-27 13:00: 0.0055
2025-01-27 18:00: 0.0055
2025-01-27 23:00: 0.0055
2025-01-28 04:00: 0.0055
2025-01-28 09:00: 0.0055
Trade Summary: Total trades: 999185, Buy volume: 770671576.19, Sell volume: 573077355.02, Average price: 0.6865, Price range: 0.0020 - 0.9980

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 515805
Question: Will Jan van Aken be the next Chancellor of Germany?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 3638279.531225
Price History:
2025-01-29 00:00: 0.0055
2025-01-29 05:00: 0.0055
2025-01-29 10:00: 0.0055
2025-01-29 15:00: 0.0055
2025-01-29 20:00: 0.0055
2025-01-30 01:00: 0.0055
2025-01-30 06:00: 0.0055
2025-01-30 11:00: 0.0015
2025-01-30 16:00: 0.0015
2025-01-30 21:00: 0.0015
2025-01-31 02:00: 0.0015
2025-01-31 07:00: 0.0015
2025-01-31 12:00: 0.0015
2025-01-31 17:00: 0.0015
2025-01-31 22:00: 0.0015
2025-02-01 03:00: 0.0015
2025-02-01 08:00: 0.0015
2025-02-01 13:00: 0.0015
2025-02-01 18:00: 0.0015
2025-02-01 23:00: 0.0015
2025-02-02 04:00: 0.0005
2025-02-02 09:00: 0.0005
2025-02-02 14:00: 0.0005
2025-02-02 19:00: 0.0005
2025-02-03 00:00: 0.0005
2025-02-03 05:00: 0.0005
2025-02-03 10:00: 0.0005
2025-02-03 15:00: 0.0005
2025-02-03 20:00: 0.0005
2025-02-04 01:00: 0.0005
2025-02-04 06:00: 0.0005
2025-02-04 11:00: 0.0005
2025-02-04 16:00: 0.0005
2025-02-04 21:00: 0.0005
2025-02-05 02:00: 0.0005
2025-02-05 07:00: 0.0005
2025-02-05 12:00: 0.0005
2025-02-05 17:00: 0.0005
2025-02-05 22:00: 0.0005
2025-02-06 03:00: 0.0005
2025-02-06 08:00: 0.0005
2025-02-06 13:00: 0.0005
2025-02-06 18:00: 0.0005
2025-02-06 23:00: 0.0005
2025-02-07 04:00: 0.0005
2025-02-07 09:00: 0.0005
2025-02-07 14:00: 0.0005
2025-02-07 19:00: 0.0005
2025-02-08 00:00: 0.0005
2025-02-08 05:00: 0.0005
Trade Summary: Total trades: 324, Buy volume: 351639.20, Sell volume: 772694.96, Average price: 0.2881, Price range: 0.0010 - 0.9990

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 515805
Question: Will Jan van Aken be the next Chancellor of Germany?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 3638279.531225
Price History:
2025-02-08 20:00: 0.0005
2025-02-09 01:00: 0.0005
2025-02-09 06:00: 0.0005
2025-02-09 11:00: 0.0005
2025-02-09 16:00: 0.0005
2025-02-09 21:00: 0.0005
2025-02-10 02:00: 0.0005
2025-02-10 07:00: 0.0005
2025-02-10 12:00: 0.0005
2025-02-10 17:00: 0.0005
2025-02-10 22:00: 0.0005
2025-02-11 03:00: 0.0005
2025-02-11 08:00: 0.0005
2025-02-11 13:00: 0.0005
2025-02-11 18:00: 0.0005
2025-02-11 23:00: 0.0005
2025-02-12 04:00: 0.0005
2025-02-12 09:00: 0.0005
2025-02-12 14:00: 0.0005
2025-02-12 19:00: 0.0005
2025-02-13 00:00: 0.0005
2025-02-13 05:00: 0.0005
2025-02-13 10:00: 0.0005
2025-02-13 15:00: 0.0005
2025-02-13 20:00: 0.0005
2025-02-14 01:00: 0.0005
2025-02-14 06:00: 0.0005
2025-02-14 11:00: 0.0005
2025-02-14 16:00: 0.0005
2025-02-14 21:00: 0.0005
2025-02-15 02:00: 0.0005
2025-02-15 07:00: 0.0005
2025-02-15 12:00: 0.0005
2025-02-15 17:00: 0.0005
2025-02-15 22:00: 0.0005
2025-02-16 03:00: 0.0005
2025-02-16 08:00: 0.0005
2025-02-16 13:00: 0.0005
2025-02-16 18:00: 0.0005
2025-02-16 23:00: 0.0005
2025-02-17 04:00: 0.0005
2025-02-17 09:00: 0.0005
2025-02-17 14:00: 0.0005
2025-02-17 19:00: 0.0005
2025-02-18 00:00: 0.0005
2025-02-18 05:00: 0.0005
2025-02-18 10:00: 0.0005
2025-02-18 15:00: 0.0005
2025-02-18 20:00: 0.0005
2025-02-19 01:00: 0.0005
Trade Summary: Total trades: 189, Buy volume: 313261.00, Sell volume: 45.46, Average price: 0.0274, Price range: 0.0010 - 0.9990

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 515805
Question: Will Jan van Aken be the next Chancellor of Germany?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 3638279.531225
Price History:
2025-02-19 16:00: 0.0005
2025-02-19 21:00: 0.0005
2025-02-20 02:00: 0.0005
2025-02-20 07:00: 0.0005
2025-02-20 12:00: 0.0005
2025-02-20 17:00: 0.0005
2025-02-20 22:00: 0.0005
2025-02-21 03:00: 0.0005
2025-02-21 08:00: 0.0005
2025-02-21 13:00: 0.0005
2025-02-21 18:00: 0.0005
2025-02-21 23:00: 0.0005
2025-02-22 04:00: 0.0005
2025-02-22 09:00: 0.0005
2025-02-22 14:00: 0.0005
2025-02-22 19:00: 0.0005
2025-02-23 00:00: 0.0005
2025-02-23 05:00: 0.0005
2025-02-23 10:00: 0.0005
2025-02-23 15:00: 0.0005
2025-02-23 20:00: 0.0005
2025-02-24 01:00: 0.0005
2025-02-24 06:00: 0.0005
2025-02-24 11:00: 0.0005
2025-02-24 16:00: 0.0005
2025-02-24 21:00: 0.0005
2025-02-25 02:00: 0.0005
2025-02-25 07:00: 0.0005
2025-02-25 12:00: 0.0005
2025-02-25 17:00: 0.0005
2025-02-25 22:00: 0.0005
2025-02-26 03:00: 0.0005
2025-02-26 08:00: 0.0005
2025-02-26 13:00: 0.0005
2025-02-26 18:00: 0.0005
2025-02-26 23:00: 0.0005
2025-02-27 04:00: 0.0005
2025-02-27 09:00: 0.0005
2025-02-27 14:00: 0.0005
2025-02-27 19:00: 0.0005
2025-02-28 00:00: 0.0005
2025-02-28 05:00: 0.0005
2025-02-28 10:00: 0.0005
2025-02-28 15:00: 0.0005
2025-02-28 20:00: 0.0005
2025-03-01 01:00: 0.0005
2025-03-01 06:00: 0.0005
2025-03-01 11:00: 0.0005
2025-03-01 16:00: 0.0005
2025-03-01 21:00: 0.0005
Trade Summary: Total trades: 57, Buy volume: 93311.00, Sell volume: 9.10, Average price: 0.0360, Price range: 0.0010 - 0.9990

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 515805
Question: Will Jan van Aken be the next Chancellor of Germany?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 3638279.531225
Price History:
2025-03-02 12:00: 0.0005
2025-03-02 17:00: 0.0005
2025-03-02 22:00: 0.0005
2025-03-03 03:00: 0.0005
2025-03-03 08:00: 0.0005
2025-03-03 13:00: 0.0005
2025-03-03 18:00: 0.0005
2025-03-03 23:00: 0.0005
2025-03-04 04:00: 0.0005
2025-03-04 09:00: 0.0005
2025-03-04 14:00: 0.0005
2025-03-04 19:00: 0.0010
2025-03-05 00:00: 0.0005
2025-03-05 05:00: 0.0005
2025-03-05 10:00: 0.0005
2025-03-05 15:00: 0.0005
2025-03-05 20:00: 0.0005
2025-03-06 01:00: 0.0005
2025-03-06 06:00: 0.0005
2025-03-06 11:00: 0.0005
2025-03-06 16:00: 0.0005
2025-03-06 21:00: 0.0005
2025-03-07 02:00: 0.0005
2025-03-07 07:00: 0.0005
2025-03-07 12:00: 0.0015
2025-03-07 17:00: 0.0005
2025-03-07 22:00: 0.0005
2025-03-08 03:00: 0.0005
2025-03-08 08:00: 0.0015
2025-03-08 13:00: 0.0005
2025-03-08 18:00: 0.0005
2025-03-08 23:00: 0.0005
2025-03-09 05:00: 0.0005
2025-03-09 10:00: 0.0005
2025-03-09 15:00: 0.0005
2025-03-09 20:00: 0.0005
2025-03-10 01:00: 0.0005
2025-03-10 06:00: 0.0005
2025-03-10 11:00: 0.0005
2025-03-10 16:00: 0.0005
2025-03-10 21:00: 0.0005
2025-03-11 02:00: 0.0005
2025-03-11 07:00: 0.0005
2025-03-11 12:00: 0.0005
2025-03-11 17:00: 0.0005
2025-03-11 22:00: 0.0005
2025-03-12 03:00: 0.0005
2025-03-12 08:00: 0.0005
2025-03-12 13:00: 0.0005
2025-03-12 18:00: 0.0005
Trade Summary: Total trades: 72, Buy volume: 159346.21, Sell volume: 105036.45, Average price: 0.2922, Price range: 0.0010 - 0.9990

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 515805
Question: Will Jan van Aken be the next Chancellor of Germany?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 3638279.531225
Price History:
2025-03-13 09:00: 0.0005
2025-03-13 14:00: 0.0005
2025-03-13 19:00: 0.0005
2025-03-14 00:00: 0.0005
2025-03-14 05:00: 0.0005
2025-03-14 10:00: 0.0005
2025-03-14 15:00: 0.0005
2025-03-14 20:00: 0.0005
2025-03-15 01:00: 0.0005
2025-03-15 06:00: 0.0005
2025-03-15 11:00: 0.0005
2025-03-15 16:00: 0.0005
2025-03-15 21:00: 0.0005
2025-03-16 02:00: 0.0005
2025-03-16 07:00: 0.0005
2025-03-16 12:00: 0.0005
2025-03-16 17:00: 0.0005
2025-03-16 22:00: 0.0005
2025-03-17 03:00: 0.0010
2025-03-17 08:00: 0.0010
2025-03-17 13:00: 0.0010
2025-03-17 18:00: 0.0005
2025-03-17 23:00: 0.0005
2025-03-18 04:00: 0.0005
2025-03-18 09:00: 0.0005
2025-03-18 14:00: 0.0005
2025-03-18 19:00: 0.0005
2025-03-19 00:00: 0.0005
2025-03-19 05:00: 0.0005
2025-03-19 10:00: 0.0005
2025-03-19 15:00: 0.0005
2025-03-19 20:00: 0.0005
2025-03-20 01:00: 0.0005
2025-03-20 06:00: 0.0005
2025-03-20 11:00: 0.0005
2025-03-20 16:00: 0.0005
2025-03-20 21:00: 0.0005
2025-03-21 02:00: 0.0005
2025-03-21 07:00: 0.0005
2025-03-21 12:00: 0.0005
2025-03-21 17:00: 0.0005
2025-03-21 22:00: 0.0005
2025-03-22 03:00: 0.0005
2025-03-22 08:00: 0.0005
2025-03-22 13:00: 0.0005
2025-03-22 18:00: 0.0005
2025-03-22 23:00: 0.0005
2025-03-23 04:00: 0.0005
2025-03-23 09:00: 0.0005
2025-03-23 14:00: 0.0005
Trade Summary: Total trades: 30, Buy volume: 157239.46, Sell volume: 36.54, Average price: 0.0675, Price range: 0.0010 - 0.9990

Output: Yes