Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 529300
Question: Will Heather Humphreys win the Irish Presidential Election?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 2607712.470574
Price History:
2025-09-05 00:00: 0.7190
2025-09-05 08:00: 0.7185
2025-09-05 16:00: 0.2715
2025-09-06 00:00: 0.7185
2025-09-06 08:00: 0.7310
2025-09-06 16:00: 0.2720
2025-09-07 00:00: 0.2775
2025-09-07 08:00: 0.7135
2025-09-07 16:00: 0.2865
2025-09-08 00:00: 0.2865
2025-09-08 08:00: 0.2865
2025-09-08 16:00: 0.3080
2025-09-09 00:00: 0.2940
2025-09-09 08:00: 0.7090
2025-09-09 16:00: 0.2480
2025-09-10 00:00: 0.2540
2025-09-10 08:00: 0.2790
2025-09-10 16:00: 0.2765
2025-09-11 00:00: 0.2820
2025-09-11 08:00: 0.7075
2025-09-11 16:00: 0.2630
2025-09-12 00:00: 0.2520
2025-09-12 08:00: 0.2605
2025-09-12 16:00: 0.2585
2025-09-13 00:00: 0.7320
2025-09-13 08:00: 0.2795
2025-09-13 16:00: 0.2785
2025-09-14 00:00: 0.2755
2025-09-14 08:00: 0.7195
2025-09-14 16:00: 0.7270
2025-09-15 00:00: 0.7315
2025-09-15 08:00: 0.7205
2025-09-15 16:00: 0.7300
2025-09-16 00:00: 0.7350
2025-09-16 08:00: 0.2640
2025-09-16 16:00: 0.7180
2025-09-17 00:00: 0.7405
2025-09-17 08:00: 0.2635
2025-09-17 16:00: 0.2740
2025-09-18 00:00: 0.6855
2025-09-18 08:00: 0.2895
2025-09-18 16:00: 0.2840
2025-09-19 00:00: 0.2895
2025-09-19 08:00: 0.7100
2025-09-19 16:00: 0.3065
2025-09-20 00:00: 0.6930
2025-09-20 08:00: 0.2870
2025-09-20 16:00: 0.3140
2025-09-21 00:00: 0.6800
2025-09-21 08:00: 0.3240
Trade Summary: No trades available

Output: No


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 529300
Question: Will Heather Humphreys win the Irish Presidential Election?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 2607712.470574
Price History:
2025-09-21 20:00: 0.3310
2025-09-22 04:00: 0.3320
2025-09-22 12:00: 0.3315
2025-09-22 20:00: 0.3350
2025-09-23 04:00: 0.3275
2025-09-23 12:00: 0.3265
2025-09-23 20:00: 0.3340
2025-09-24 04:00: 0.6565
2025-09-24 12:00: 0.3740
2025-09-24 20:00: 0.6100
2025-09-25 04:00: 0.3865
2025-09-25 12:00: 0.4030
2025-09-25 20:00: 0.4035
2025-09-26 04:00: 0.6005
2025-09-26 12:00: 0.5970
2025-09-26 20:00: 0.5915
2025-09-27 04:00: 0.4075
2025-09-27 12:00: 0.4090
2025-09-27 20:00: 0.4130
2025-09-28 04:00: 0.4170
2025-09-28 12:00: 0.5945
2025-09-28 20:00: 0.5820
2025-09-29 04:00: 0.4075
2025-09-29 12:00: 0.5755
2025-09-29 20:00: 0.4295
2025-09-30 04:00: 0.4315
2025-09-30 12:00: 0.4190
2025-09-30 20:00: 0.5750
2025-10-01 04:00: 0.4200
2025-10-01 12:00: 0.5545
2025-10-01 20:00: 0.5275
2025-10-02 04:00: 0.5080
2025-10-02 12:00: 0.5245
2025-10-02 20:00: 0.5090
2025-10-03 04:00: 0.5215
2025-10-03 12:00: 0.5100
2025-10-03 20:00: 0.5075
2025-10-04 04:00: 0.5075
2025-10-04 12:00: 0.4525
2025-10-04 20:00: 0.5375
2025-10-05 04:00: 0.5295
2025-10-05 12:00: 0.4705
2025-10-05 20:00: 0.4100
2025-10-06 04:00: 0.4100
2025-10-06 12:00: 0.6325
2025-10-06 20:00: 0.7165
2025-10-07 04:00: 0.7390
2025-10-07 12:00: 0.2605
2025-10-07 20:00: 0.7385
2025-10-08 04:00: 0.2615
Trade Summary: No trades available

Output: No


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 529300
Question: Will Heather Humphreys win the Irish Presidential Election?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 2607712.470574
Price History:
2025-10-08 16:00: 0.7675
2025-10-09 00:00: 0.7670
2025-10-09 08:00: 0.2640
2025-10-09 16:00: 0.2615
2025-10-10 00:00: 0.7390
2025-10-10 08:00: 0.7395
2025-10-10 16:00: 0.2730
2025-10-11 00:00: 0.7185
2025-10-11 08:00: 0.2735
2025-10-11 16:00: 0.2920
2025-10-12 00:00: 0.7220
2025-10-12 08:00: 0.2770
2025-10-12 16:00: 0.2570
2025-10-13 00:00: 0.2635
2025-10-13 08:00: 0.7275
2025-10-13 16:00: 0.2735
2025-10-14 00:00: 0.7180
2025-10-14 08:00: 0.2820
2025-10-14 16:00: 0.2830
2025-10-15 00:00: 0.3185
2025-10-15 08:00: 0.6790
2025-10-15 16:00: 0.6945
2025-10-16 00:00: 0.7480
2025-10-16 08:00: 0.8505
2025-10-16 16:00: 0.8680
2025-10-17 00:00: 0.8565
2025-10-17 08:00: 0.8570
2025-10-17 16:00: 0.1340
2025-10-18 00:00: 0.1250
2025-10-18 08:00: 0.8790
2025-10-18 16:00: 0.8760
2025-10-19 00:00: 0.8855
2025-10-19 08:00: 0.1230
2025-10-19 16:00: 0.8915
2025-10-20 00:00: 0.8830
2025-10-20 08:00: 0.8875
2025-10-20 16:00: 0.8955
2025-10-21 00:00: 0.9045
2025-10-21 08:00: 0.1045
2025-10-21 16:00: 0.9285
2025-10-22 00:00: 0.0580
2025-10-22 08:00: 0.0575
2025-10-22 16:00: 0.0525
2025-10-23 00:00: 0.0355
2025-10-23 08:00: 0.0205
2025-10-23 16:00: 0.0360
2025-10-24 00:00: 0.0310
2025-10-24 08:00: 0.0230
2025-10-24 16:00: 0.0175
2025-10-25 00:00: 0.0150
Trade Summary: No trades available

Output: No


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 529300
Question: Will Heather Humphreys win the Irish Presidential Election?
Volume: 2607712.470574
Price History:
2025-03-20 17:00: 0.0900
2025-03-21 06:00: 0.0800
2025-03-21 19:00: 0.0750
2025-03-22 08:00: 0.0750
2025-03-22 21:00: 0.0750
2025-03-23 10:00: 0.0650
2025-03-23 23:00: 0.0650
2025-03-24 12:00: 0.0650
2025-03-25 01:00: 0.0650
2025-03-25 14:00: 0.0650
2025-03-26 03:00: 0.0650
2025-03-26 16:00: 0.0600
2025-03-27 05:00: 0.0600
2025-03-27 18:00: 0.0600
2025-03-28 07:00: 0.0600
2025-03-28 20:00: 0.0600
2025-03-29 09:00: 0.0600
2025-03-29 22:00: 0.0600
2025-03-30 11:00: 0.0600
2025-03-31 00:00: 0.0600
2025-03-31 13:00: 0.0600
2025-04-01 02:00: 0.0600
2025-04-01 15:00: 0.0600
2025-04-02 04:00: 0.0600
2025-04-02 17:00: 0.0600
2025-04-03 06:00: 0.0600
2025-04-03 19:00: 0.0600
2025-04-04 08:00: 0.0600
2025-04-04 21:00: 0.0600
2025-04-05 10:00: 0.0600
Trade Summary: No trades available
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 529300
Question: Will Heather Humphreys win the Irish Presidential Election?
Volume: 2607712.470574
Price History:
2025-04-06 13:00: 0.0600
2025-04-07 02:00: 0.0600
2025-04-07 15:00: 0.0600
2025-04-08 04:00: 0.0600
2025-04-08 17:00: 0.0600
2025-04-09 06:00: 0.0600
2025-04-09 19:00: 0.0600
2025-04-10 08:00: 0.0600
2025-04-10 21:00: 0.0600
2025-04-11 10:00: 0.0600
2025-04-11 23:00: 0.0600
2025-04-12 12:00: 0.0600
2025-04-13 01:00: 0.0600
2025-04-13 14:00: 0.0600
2025-04-14 03:00: 0.0600
2025-04-14 16:00: 0.0600
2025-04-15 05:00: 0.0600
2025-04-15 18:00: 0.0600
2025-04-16 07:00: 0.0600
2025-04-16 20:00: 0.0600
2025-04-17 09:00: 0.0600
2025-04-17 22:00: 0.0600
2025-04-18 11:00: 0.0600
2025-04-19 00:00: 0.0600
2025-04-19 13:00: 0.0600
2025-04-20 02:00: 0.0600
2025-04-20 15:00: 0.0600
2025-04-21 04:00: 0.0600
2025-04-21 17:00: 0.0600
2025-04-22 06:00: 0.0600
Trade Summary: No trades available
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 529300
Question: Will Heather Humphreys win the Irish Presidential Election?
Volume: 2607712.470574
Price History:
2025-04-23 09:00: 0.0600
2025-04-23 22:00: 0.0600
2025-04-24 11:00: 0.0600
2025-04-25 00:00: 0.0600
2025-04-25 13:00: 0.0600
2025-04-26 02:00: 0.0600
2025-04-26 15:00: 0.0600
2025-04-27 04:00: 0.0600
2025-04-27 17:00: 0.0600
2025-04-28 06:00: 0.0600
2025-04-28 19:00: 0.0600
2025-04-29 08:00: 0.0600
2025-04-29 21:00: 0.0600
2025-04-30 10:00: 0.0600
2025-04-30 23:00: 0.0600
2025-05-01 12:00: 0.0600
2025-05-02 01:00: 0.0600
2025-05-02 14:00: 0.0600
2025-05-03 03:00: 0.0600
2025-05-03 16:00: 0.0600
2025-05-04 05:00: 0.0600
2025-05-04 18:00: 0.0600
2025-05-05 07:00: 0.0600
2025-05-05 20:00: 0.0600
2025-05-06 09:00: 0.0600
2025-05-06 22:00: 0.0600
2025-05-07 11:00: 0.0600
2025-05-08 00:00: 0.0600
2025-05-08 13:00: 0.0450
2025-05-09 02:00: 0.0550
Trade Summary: No trades available
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 529300
Question: Will Heather Humphreys win the Irish Presidential Election?
Volume: 2607712.470574
Price History:
2025-05-10 05:00: 0.0550
2025-05-10 18:00: 0.0550
2025-05-11 07:00: 0.0550
2025-05-11 20:00: 0.0550
2025-05-12 09:00: 0.0550
2025-05-12 22:00: 0.0550
2025-05-13 11:00: 0.0550
2025-05-14 00:00: 0.0550
2025-05-14 13:00: 0.0450
2025-05-15 02:00: 0.0550
2025-05-15 15:00: 0.0600
2025-05-16 04:00: 0.0600
2025-05-16 17:00: 0.0600
2025-05-17 06:00: 0.0600
2025-05-17 19:00: 0.0650
2025-05-18 08:00: 0.0650
2025-05-18 21:00: 0.0650
2025-05-19 10:00: 0.0650
2025-05-19 23:00: 0.0600
2025-05-20 12:00: 0.0600
2025-05-21 01:00: 0.0650
2025-05-21 14:00: 0.0600
2025-05-22 03:00: 0.0600
2025-05-22 16:00: 0.0550
2025-05-23 05:00: 0.0550
2025-05-23 18:00: 0.0550
2025-05-24 07:00: 0.0550
2025-05-24 20:00: 0.0165
2025-05-25 09:00: 0.0120
2025-05-25 22:00: 0.0120
Trade Summary: No trades available
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 529300
Question: Will Heather Humphreys win the Irish Presidential Election?
Volume: 2607712.470574
Price History:
2025-05-27 01:00: 0.0210
2025-05-27 14:00: 0.0210
2025-05-28 03:00: 0.0210
2025-05-28 16:00: 0.0210
2025-05-29 05:00: 0.0210
2025-05-29 18:00: 0.0210
2025-05-30 07:00: 0.0170
2025-05-30 20:00: 0.0170
2025-05-31 09:00: 0.0185
2025-05-31 22:00: 0.0180
2025-06-01 11:00: 0.0215
2025-06-02 00:00: 0.0085
2025-06-02 13:00: 0.0175
2025-06-03 02:00: 0.0200
2025-06-03 15:00: 0.0200
2025-06-04 04:00: 0.0200
2025-06-04 17:00: 0.0190
2025-06-05 06:00: 0.0190
2025-06-05 19:00: 0.0190
2025-06-06 08:00: 0.0190
2025-06-06 21:00: 0.0190
2025-06-07 10:00: 0.0190
2025-06-07 23:00: 0.0200
2025-06-08 12:00: 0.0200
2025-06-09 01:00: 0.0200
2025-06-09 14:00: 0.0200
2025-06-10 03:00: 0.0200
2025-06-10 16:00: 0.0170
2025-06-11 05:00: 0.0165
2025-06-11 18:00: 0.0170
Trade Summary: No trades available
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 529300
Question: Will Heather Humphreys win the Irish Presidential Election?
Volume: 2607712.470574
Price History:
2025-06-12 21:00: 0.0150
2025-06-13 11:00: 0.0140
2025-06-14 00:00: 0.0155
2025-06-14 13:00: 0.0150
2025-06-15 02:00: 0.0140
2025-06-15 15:00: 0.0155
2025-06-16 04:00: 0.0040
2025-06-16 17:00: 0.0040
2025-06-17 06:00: 0.0040
2025-06-17 19:00: 0.0040
2025-06-18 08:00: 0.0040
2025-06-18 21:00: 0.0040
2025-06-19 10:00: 0.0040
2025-06-19 23:00: 0.0040
2025-06-20 12:00: 0.0040
2025-06-21 01:00: 0.0040
2025-06-21 14:00: 0.0040
2025-06-22 03:00: 0.0040
2025-06-22 16:00: 0.0040
2025-06-23 05:00: 0.0040
2025-06-23 18:00: 0.0040
2025-06-24 07:00: 0.0125
2025-06-24 20:00: 0.0095
2025-06-25 09:00: 0.0115
2025-06-25 22:00: 0.0080
2025-06-26 11:00: 0.0100
2025-06-27 00:00: 0.0075
2025-06-27 13:00: 0.0075
2025-06-28 02:00: 0.0090
2025-06-28 15:00: 0.0090
Trade Summary: No trades available
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 529300
Question: Will Heather Humphreys win the Irish Presidential Election?
Volume: 2607712.470574
Price History:
2025-06-29 18:00: 0.0065
2025-06-30 07:00: 0.0045
2025-06-30 20:00: 0.0055
2025-07-01 09:00: 0.0045
2025-07-01 22:00: 0.0045
2025-07-02 11:00: 0.0045
2025-07-03 00:00: 0.0045
2025-07-03 13:00: 0.0045
2025-07-04 02:00: 0.0045
2025-07-04 15:00: 0.0045
2025-07-05 04:00: 0.0130
2025-07-05 17:00: 0.0055
2025-07-06 06:00: 0.0070
2025-07-06 19:00: 0.0060
2025-07-07 08:00: 0.0070
2025-07-07 21:00: 0.0050
2025-07-08 10:00: 0.0035
2025-07-08 23:00: 0.0035
2025-07-09 12:00: 0.0035
2025-07-10 01:00: 0.0035
2025-07-10 14:00: 0.0035
2025-07-11 03:00: 0.0035
2025-07-11 16:00: 0.0035
2025-07-12 05:00: 0.0035
2025-07-12 18:00: 0.0035
2025-07-13 07:00: 0.0035
2025-07-13 20:00: 0.0035
2025-07-14 09:00: 0.0035
2025-07-14 22:00: 0.0035
2025-07-15 11:00: 0.0035
Trade Summary: No trades available
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 529300
Question: Will Heather Humphreys win the Irish Presidential Election?
Volume: 2607712.470574
Price History:
2025-07-16 14:00: 0.0035
2025-07-17 03:00: 0.0035
2025-07-17 16:00: 0.0035
2025-07-18 05:00: 0.0035
2025-07-18 18:00: 0.0035
2025-07-19 07:00: 0.0030
2025-07-19 20:00: 0.0030
2025-07-20 09:00: 0.0025
2025-07-20 22:00: 0.0025
2025-07-21 11:00: 0.0025
2025-07-22 00:00: 0.0025
2025-07-22 13:00: 0.0030
2025-07-23 01:00: 0.0025
2025-07-23 14:00: 0.0025
2025-07-24 03:00: 0.0025
2025-07-24 16:00: 0.0025
2025-07-25 05:00: 0.0025
2025-07-25 18:00: 0.0025
2025-07-26 07:00: 0.0025
2025-07-26 20:00: 0.0025
2025-07-27 09:00: 0.0025
2025-07-27 22:00: 0.0025
2025-07-28 11:00: 0.0025
2025-07-29 00:00: 0.0025
2025-07-29 13:00: 0.0065
2025-07-30 02:00: 0.0075
2025-07-30 15:00: 0.0055
2025-07-31 04:00: 0.0055
2025-07-31 17:00: 0.0055
2025-08-01 06:00: 0.0050
Trade Summary: No trades available
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 529300
Question: Will Heather Humphreys win the Irish Presidential Election?
Volume: 2607712.470574
Price History:
2025-08-02 09:00: 0.0055
2025-08-02 22:00: 0.0065
2025-08-03 11:00: 0.0065
2025-08-04 00:00: 0.0070
2025-08-04 13:00: 0.0065
2025-08-05 02:00: 0.0065
2025-08-05 15:00: 0.0025
2025-08-06 04:00: 0.0030
2025-08-06 17:00: 0.9975
2025-08-07 06:00: 0.9975
2025-08-07 19:00: 0.0025
2025-08-08 08:00: 0.0025
2025-08-08 21:00: 0.0025
2025-08-09 10:00: 0.9975
2025-08-09 23:00: 0.9975
2025-08-10 12:00: 0.0170
2025-08-11 01:00: 0.9825
2025-08-11 14:00: 0.9940
2025-08-12 03:00: 0.9965
2025-08-12 16:00: 0.0050
2025-08-13 05:00: 0.9965
2025-08-13 18:00: 0.9965
2025-08-14 07:00: 0.9965
2025-08-14 20:00: 0.9530
2025-08-15 09:00: 0.0475
2025-08-15 22:00: 0.1990
2025-08-16 11:00: 0.1820
2025-08-17 00:00: 0.7940
2025-08-17 13:00: 0.8750
2025-08-18 02:00: 0.9045
Trade Summary: No trades available
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 529300
Question: Will Heather Humphreys win the Irish Presidential Election?
Volume: 2607712.470574
Price History:
2025-08-19 05:00: 0.8540
2025-08-19 18:00: 0.6185
2025-08-20 07:00: 0.6285
2025-08-20 20:00: 0.3585
2025-08-21 09:00: 0.3195
2025-08-21 22:00: 0.6825
2025-08-22 11:00: 0.3090
2025-08-23 00:00: 0.3210
2025-08-23 13:00: 0.3370
2025-08-24 02:00: 0.2930
2025-08-24 15:00: 0.6945
2025-08-25 04:00: 0.3415
2025-08-25 17:00: 0.6535
2025-08-26 05:00: 0.3515
2025-08-26 18:00: 0.6510
2025-08-27 07:00: 0.3440
2025-08-27 20:00: 0.3650
2025-08-28 09:00: 0.3680
2025-08-28 22:00: 0.4005
2025-08-29 11:00: 0.6140
2025-08-30 00:00: 0.3640
2025-08-30 13:00: 0.6425
2025-08-31 02:00: 0.6795
2025-08-31 15:00: 0.6850
2025-09-01 04:00: 0.7445
2025-09-01 17:00: 0.3125
2025-09-02 06:00: 0.6790
2025-09-02 19:00: 0.6765
2025-09-03 08:00: 0.6385
2025-09-03 21:00: 0.6800
Trade Summary: No trades available
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 529300
Question: Will Heather Humphreys win the Irish Presidential Election?
Volume: 2607712.470574
Price History:
2025-09-05 00:00: 0.7190
2025-09-05 13:00: 0.2825
2025-09-06 02:00: 0.7205
2025-09-06 15:00: 0.7285
2025-09-07 04:00: 0.7220
2025-09-07 17:00: 0.2865
2025-09-08 06:00: 0.2865
2025-09-08 19:00: 0.3075
2025-09-09 08:00: 0.7090
2025-09-09 21:00: 0.2540
2025-09-10 10:00: 0.2820
2025-09-10 23:00: 0.7120
2025-09-11 12:00: 0.6960
2025-09-12 01:00: 0.7430
2025-09-12 14:00: 0.7430
2025-09-13 03:00: 0.2760
2025-09-13 16:00: 0.2785
2025-09-14 05:00: 0.7215
2025-09-14 18:00: 0.7390
2025-09-15 07:00: 0.2595
2025-09-15 20:00: 0.7325
2025-09-16 09:00: 0.2650
2025-09-16 22:00: 0.7390
2025-09-17 11:00: 0.2665
2025-09-18 00:00: 0.6855
2025-09-18 13:00: 0.2910
2025-09-19 02:00: 0.2900
2025-09-19 15:00: 0.6905
2025-09-20 04:00: 0.3150
2025-09-20 17:00: 0.3140
Trade Summary: No trades available
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 529300
Question: Will Heather Humphreys win the Irish Presidential Election?
Volume: 2607712.470574
Price History:
2025-09-21 20:00: 0.3310
2025-09-22 09:00: 0.6680
2025-09-22 22:00: 0.3355
2025-09-23 11:00: 0.3235
2025-09-24 00:00: 0.6645
2025-09-24 13:00: 0.3755
2025-09-25 02:00: 0.6130
2025-09-25 15:00: 0.6010
2025-09-26 04:00: 0.6005
2025-09-26 17:00: 0.4105
2025-09-27 06:00: 0.4105
2025-09-27 19:00: 0.5860
2025-09-28 08:00: 0.4305
2025-09-28 21:00: 0.4160
2025-09-29 10:00: 0.5765
2025-09-29 23:00: 0.5710
2025-09-30 12:00: 0.4190
2025-10-01 01:00: 0.4200
2025-10-01 14:00: 0.5515
2025-10-02 03:00: 0.5060
2025-10-02 16:00: 0.5095
2025-10-03 05:00: 0.4910
2025-10-03 18:00: 0.5100
2025-10-04 07:00: 0.5045
2025-10-04 20:00: 0.5375
2025-10-05 09:00: 0.4670
2025-10-05 22:00: 0.4085
2025-10-06 11:00: 0.6555
2025-10-07 00:00: 0.7105
2025-10-07 13:00: 0.7415
Trade Summary: No trades available
Manipulation Indicators Detected: price_spike

Output: No


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 529300
Question: Will Heather Humphreys win the Irish Presidential Election?
Volume: 2607712.470574
Price History:
2025-10-08 16:00: 0.7675
2025-10-09 05:00: 0.2615
2025-10-09 18:00: 0.2615
2025-10-10 07:00: 0.2620
2025-10-10 20:00: 0.2760
2025-10-11 09:00: 0.7260
2025-10-11 22:00: 0.2730
2025-10-12 11:00: 0.2700
2025-10-13 00:00: 0.2635
2025-10-13 13:00: 0.2735
2025-10-14 02:00: 0.2815
2025-10-14 15:00: 0.2830
2025-10-15 04:00: 0.6825
2025-10-15 17:00: 0.7120
2025-10-16 06:00: 0.8700
2025-10-16 19:00: 0.1480
2025-10-17 08:00: 0.8570
2025-10-17 21:00: 0.1185
2025-10-18 10:00: 0.8790
2025-10-18 23:00: 0.8840
2025-10-19 12:00: 0.8875
2025-10-20 01:00: 0.1170
2025-10-20 14:00: 0.8945
2025-10-21 03:00: 0.8935
2025-10-21 16:00: 0.9285
2025-10-22 05:00: 0.0575
2025-10-22 18:00: 0.0420
2025-10-23 07:00: 0.0280
2025-10-23 20:00: 0.0330
2025-10-24 09:00: 0.0190
Trade Summary: No trades available
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 529280
Question: Will Mairead McGuinness win the Irish Presidential Election?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 529985.159773
Price History:
2025-03-20 17:00: 0.1250
2025-03-21 01:00: 0.1200
2025-03-21 09:00: 0.1900
2025-03-21 17:00: 0.2250
2025-03-22 01:00: 0.2250
2025-03-22 09:00: 0.2050
2025-03-22 17:00: 0.2200
2025-03-23 01:00: 0.2200
2025-03-23 09:00: 0.2600
2025-03-23 17:00: 0.2600
2025-03-24 01:00: 0.2800
2025-03-24 09:00: 0.2800
2025-03-24 17:00: 0.2800
2025-03-25 01:00: 0.2800
2025-03-25 09:00: 0.2650
2025-03-25 17:00: 0.2650
2025-03-26 01:00: 0.2650
2025-03-26 09:00: 0.1850
2025-03-26 17:00: 0.2250
2025-03-27 01:00: 0.2550
2025-03-27 09:00: 0.2550
2025-03-27 17:00: 0.2550
2025-03-28 01:00: 0.2550
2025-03-28 09:00: 0.2500
2025-03-28 17:00: 0.2500
2025-03-29 01:00: 0.2500
2025-03-29 09:00: 0.2500
2025-03-29 17:00: 0.2500
2025-03-30 01:00: 0.2500
2025-03-30 09:00: 0.2500
2025-03-30 17:00: 0.2500
2025-03-31 01:00: 0.2500
2025-03-31 09:00: 0.2500
2025-03-31 17:00: 0.2500
2025-04-01 01:00: 0.2500
2025-04-01 09:00: 0.2450
2025-04-01 17:00: 0.2450
2025-04-02 01:00: 0.2450
2025-04-02 09:00: 0.2450
2025-04-02 17:00: 0.2450
2025-04-03 01:00: 0.2450
2025-04-03 09:00: 0.2450
2025-04-03 17:00: 0.2450
2025-04-04 01:00: 0.2450
2025-04-04 09:00: 0.2450
2025-04-04 17:00: 0.2450
2025-04-05 01:00: 0.2450
2025-04-05 09:00: 0.2450
2025-04-05 17:00: 0.2450
2025-04-06 01:00: 0.2450
Trade Summary: No trades available

Output: No


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 529280
Question: Will Mairead McGuinness win the Irish Presidential Election?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 529985.159773
Price History:
2025-04-06 13:00: 0.2450
2025-04-06 21:00: 0.2450
2025-04-07 05:00: 0.2450
2025-04-07 13:00: 0.2450
2025-04-07 21:00: 0.2450
2025-04-08 05:00: 0.2450
2025-04-08 13:00: 0.2450
2025-04-08 21:00: 0.2450
2025-04-09 05:00: 0.2450
2025-04-09 13:00: 0.2450
2025-04-09 21:00: 0.2450
2025-04-10 05:00: 0.2450
2025-04-10 13:00: 0.2450
2025-04-10 21:00: 0.2450
2025-04-11 05:00: 0.2450
2025-04-11 13:00: 0.2450
2025-04-11 21:00: 0.2450
2025-04-12 05:00: 0.2450
2025-04-12 13:00: 0.2450
2025-04-12 21:00: 0.2450
2025-04-13 05:00: 0.2450
2025-04-13 13:00: 0.2450
2025-04-13 21:00: 0.2450
2025-04-14 05:00: 0.2450
2025-04-14 13:00: 0.2450
2025-04-14 21:00: 0.2450
2025-04-15 05:00: 0.2450
2025-04-15 13:00: 0.2450
2025-04-15 21:00: 0.2450
2025-04-16 05:00: 0.2450
2025-04-16 13:00: 0.2450
2025-04-16 21:00: 0.2450
2025-04-17 05:00: 0.2450
2025-04-17 13:00: 0.2450
2025-04-17 21:00: 0.2450
2025-04-18 05:00: 0.2450
2025-04-18 13:00: 0.2450
2025-04-18 21:00: 0.2450
2025-04-19 05:00: 0.2450
2025-04-19 13:00: 0.2450
2025-04-19 21:00: 0.2450
2025-04-20 05:00: 0.2450
2025-04-20 13:00: 0.2450
2025-04-20 21:00: 0.2450
2025-04-21 05:00: 0.2450
2025-04-21 13:00: 0.2450
2025-04-21 21:00: 0.2450
2025-04-22 05:00: 0.2450
2025-04-22 13:00: 0.2450
2025-04-22 21:00: 0.2450
Trade Summary: No trades available

Output: No


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 529280
Question: Will Mairead McGuinness win the Irish Presidential Election?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 529985.159773
Price History:
2025-04-23 09:00: 0.2450
2025-04-23 17:00: 0.2450
2025-04-24 01:00: 0.2450
2025-04-24 09:00: 0.2450
2025-04-24 17:00: 0.2450
2025-04-25 01:00: 0.2450
2025-04-25 09:00: 0.2450
2025-04-25 17:00: 0.2450
2025-04-26 01:00: 0.2450
2025-04-26 09:00: 0.2450
2025-04-26 17:00: 0.2450
2025-04-27 01:00: 0.2450
2025-04-27 09:00: 0.2450
2025-04-27 17:00: 0.2450
2025-04-28 01:00: 0.2450
2025-04-28 09:00: 0.2450
2025-04-28 17:00: 0.2450
2025-04-29 01:00: 0.2450
2025-04-29 09:00: 0.2450
2025-04-29 17:00: 0.2450
2025-04-30 01:00: 0.2450
2025-04-30 09:00: 0.2450
2025-04-30 17:00: 0.2450
2025-05-01 01:00: 0.2450
2025-05-01 09:00: 0.2550
2025-05-01 17:00: 0.2550
2025-05-02 01:00: 0.2550
2025-05-02 09:00: 0.2550
2025-05-02 17:00: 0.2650
2025-05-03 01:00: 0.2950
2025-05-03 09:00: 0.2750
2025-05-03 17:00: 0.2850
2025-05-04 01:00: 0.2900
2025-05-04 09:00: 0.2850
2025-05-04 17:00: 0.2850
2025-05-05 01:00: 0.2850
2025-05-05 09:00: 0.2900
2025-05-05 17:00: 0.2650
2025-05-06 01:00: 0.2700
2025-05-06 09:00: 0.2650
2025-05-06 17:00: 0.2650
2025-05-07 01:00: 0.2650
2025-05-07 09:00: 0.2650
2025-05-07 17:00: 0.2650
2025-05-08 01:00: 0.2650
2025-05-08 09:00: 0.2150
2025-05-08 17:00: 0.2150
2025-05-09 01:00: 0.2150
2025-05-09 09:00: 0.2150
2025-05-09 17:00: 0.2150
Trade Summary: No trades available

Output: No


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 529280
Question: Will Mairead McGuinness win the Irish Presidential Election?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 529985.159773
Price History:
2025-05-10 05:00: 0.2150
2025-05-10 13:00: 0.2150
2025-05-10 21:00: 0.2150
2025-05-11 05:00: 0.2150
2025-05-11 13:00: 0.2150
2025-05-11 21:00: 0.2100
2025-05-12 05:00: 0.2100
2025-05-12 13:00: 0.2100
2025-05-12 21:00: 0.2100
2025-05-13 05:00: 0.2100
2025-05-13 13:00: 0.2100
2025-05-13 21:00: 0.2150
2025-05-14 05:00: 0.2150
2025-05-14 13:00: 0.2100
2025-05-14 21:00: 0.1950
2025-05-15 05:00: 0.1950
2025-05-15 13:00: 0.1950
2025-05-15 21:00: 0.1950
2025-05-16 05:00: 0.1950
2025-05-16 13:00: 0.1950
2025-05-16 21:00: 0.1950
2025-05-17 05:00: 0.1950
2025-05-17 13:00: 0.2000
2025-05-17 21:00: 0.2050
2025-05-18 05:00: 0.2050
2025-05-18 13:00: 0.2000
2025-05-18 21:00: 0.2050
2025-05-19 05:00: 0.2050
2025-05-19 13:00: 0.2100
2025-05-19 21:00: 0.1950
2025-05-20 05:00: 0.1950
2025-05-20 13:00: 0.2000
2025-05-20 21:00: 0.2000
2025-05-21 05:00: 0.2000
2025-05-21 13:00: 0.2000
2025-05-21 21:00: 0.3000
2025-05-22 05:00: 0.2250
2025-05-22 13:00: 0.2400
2025-05-22 21:00: 0.2350
2025-05-23 05:00: 0.2400
2025-05-23 13:00: 0.2450
2025-05-23 21:00: 0.2350
2025-05-24 05:00: 0.2400
2025-05-24 13:00: 0.2400
2025-05-24 21:00: 0.3350
2025-05-25 05:00: 0.3350
2025-05-25 13:00: 0.3000
2025-05-25 21:00: 0.2850
2025-05-26 05:00: 0.2950
2025-05-26 13:00: 0.3200
Trade Summary: No trades available

Output: No


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 529280
Question: Will Mairead McGuinness win the Irish Presidential Election?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 529985.159773
Price History:
2025-05-27 01:00: 0.3150
2025-05-27 09:00: 0.3000
2025-05-27 17:00: 0.3150
2025-05-28 01:00: 0.3150
2025-05-28 09:00: 0.3100
2025-05-28 17:00: 0.3050
2025-05-29 01:00: 0.3050
2025-05-29 09:00: 0.3050
2025-05-29 17:00: 0.3050
2025-05-30 01:00: 0.2900
2025-05-30 09:00: 0.2850
2025-05-30 17:00: 0.2850
2025-05-31 01:00: 0.2850
2025-05-31 09:00: 0.2850
2025-05-31 17:00: 0.2850
2025-06-01 01:00: 0.2850
2025-06-01 09:00: 0.2850
2025-06-01 17:00: 0.2750
2025-06-02 01:00: 0.3450
2025-06-02 09:00: 0.3450
2025-06-02 17:00: 0.3500
2025-06-03 01:00: 0.3450
2025-06-03 09:00: 0.3450
2025-06-03 17:00: 0.3500
2025-06-04 01:00: 0.3500
2025-06-04 09:00: 0.3500
2025-06-04 17:00: 0.3500
2025-06-05 01:00: 0.3350
2025-06-05 09:00: 0.3350
2025-06-05 17:00: 0.3500
2025-06-06 01:00: 0.3550
2025-06-06 09:00: 0.3500
2025-06-06 17:00: 0.3250
2025-06-07 01:00: 0.3450
2025-06-07 09:00: 0.3250
2025-06-07 17:00: 0.3250
2025-06-08 01:00: 0.3300
2025-06-08 09:00: 0.3300
2025-06-08 17:00: 0.3300
2025-06-09 01:00: 0.3300
2025-06-09 09:00: 0.3300
2025-06-09 17:00: 0.3300
2025-06-10 01:00: 0.3300
2025-06-10 09:00: 0.3300
2025-06-10 17:00: 0.3300
2025-06-11 01:00: 0.3300
2025-06-11 09:00: 0.3300
2025-06-11 17:00: 0.3350
2025-06-12 01:00: 0.3400
2025-06-12 09:00: 0.3450
Trade Summary: No trades available

Output: No


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 529280
Question: Will Mairead McGuinness win the Irish Presidential Election?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 529985.159773
Price History:
2025-06-12 21:00: 0.3350
2025-06-13 06:00: 0.3500
2025-06-13 14:00: 0.3450
2025-06-13 22:00: 0.3450
2025-06-14 06:00: 0.3700
2025-06-14 14:00: 0.3650
2025-06-14 22:00: 0.3800
2025-06-15 06:00: 0.3800
2025-06-15 14:00: 0.3800
2025-06-15 22:00: 0.3800
2025-06-16 06:00: 0.3700
2025-06-16 14:00: 0.3700
2025-06-16 22:00: 0.3700
2025-06-17 06:00: 0.3700
2025-06-17 14:00: 0.3800
2025-06-17 22:00: 0.3550
2025-06-18 06:00: 0.3550
2025-06-18 14:00: 0.3550
2025-06-18 22:00: 0.3550
2025-06-19 06:00: 0.3500
2025-06-19 14:00: 0.3300
2025-06-19 22:00: 0.3300
2025-06-20 06:00: 0.3300
2025-06-20 14:00: 0.3400
2025-06-20 22:00: 0.3150
2025-06-21 06:00: 0.3150
2025-06-21 14:00: 0.3150
2025-06-21 22:00: 0.3350
2025-06-22 06:00: 0.3350
2025-06-22 14:00: 0.3350
2025-06-22 22:00: 0.3250
2025-06-23 06:00: 0.3350
2025-06-23 14:00: 0.3350
2025-06-23 22:00: 0.3450
2025-06-24 06:00: 0.3800
2025-06-24 14:00: 0.3850
2025-06-24 22:00: 0.3800
2025-06-25 06:00: 0.4400
2025-06-25 14:00: 0.4050
2025-06-25 22:00: 0.3550
2025-06-26 06:00: 0.3950
2025-06-26 14:00: 0.3950
2025-06-26 22:00: 0.4050
2025-06-27 06:00: 0.3950
2025-06-27 14:00: 0.3800
2025-06-27 22:00: 0.3800
2025-06-28 06:00: 0.3800
2025-06-28 14:00: 0.3800
2025-06-28 22:00: 0.3800
2025-06-29 06:00: 0.3550
Trade Summary: No trades available

Output: No


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 529280
Question: Will Mairead McGuinness win the Irish Presidential Election?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 529985.159773
Price History:
2025-06-29 18:00: 0.3800
2025-06-30 02:00: 0.3650
2025-06-30 10:00: 0.3700
2025-06-30 18:00: 0.4150
2025-07-01 02:00: 0.3950
2025-07-01 10:00: 0.3550
2025-07-01 18:00: 0.3450
2025-07-02 02:00: 0.3550
2025-07-02 10:00: 0.3700
2025-07-02 18:00: 0.3550
2025-07-03 02:00: 0.3700
2025-07-03 10:00: 0.3550
2025-07-03 18:00: 0.3550
2025-07-04 02:00: 0.3650
2025-07-04 10:00: 0.3600
2025-07-04 18:00: 0.3950
2025-07-05 02:00: 0.3950
2025-07-05 10:00: 0.4000
2025-07-05 18:00: 0.4250
2025-07-06 02:00: 0.3900
2025-07-06 10:00: 0.3900
2025-07-06 18:00: 0.4100
2025-07-07 02:00: 0.4000
2025-07-07 10:00: 0.4100
2025-07-07 18:00: 0.3750
2025-07-08 02:00: 0.3700
2025-07-08 10:00: 0.4000
2025-07-08 18:00: 0.3950
2025-07-09 02:00: 0.3950
2025-07-09 10:00: 0.3950
2025-07-09 18:00: 0.3750
2025-07-10 02:00: 0.3900
2025-07-10 10:00: 0.3900
2025-07-10 18:00: 0.3900
2025-07-11 02:00: 0.3650
2025-07-11 10:00: 0.3350
2025-07-11 18:00: 0.3700
2025-07-12 02:00: 0.3850
2025-07-12 10:00: 0.3950
2025-07-12 18:00: 0.3900
2025-07-13 02:00: 0.3850
2025-07-13 10:00: 0.3850
2025-07-13 18:00: 0.3900
2025-07-14 02:00: 0.3900
2025-07-14 10:00: 0.4050
2025-07-14 18:00: 0.4050
2025-07-15 02:00: 0.4100
2025-07-15 10:00: 0.4150
2025-07-15 18:00: 0.4050
2025-07-16 02:00: 0.4050
Trade Summary: No trades available

Output: No


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 529280
Question: Will Mairead McGuinness win the Irish Presidential Election?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 529985.159773
Price History:
2025-07-16 14:00: 0.3850
2025-07-16 22:00: 0.3850
2025-07-17 06:00: 0.4250
2025-07-17 14:00: 0.4200
2025-07-17 22:00: 0.3850
2025-07-18 06:00: 0.3850
2025-07-18 14:00: 0.3900
2025-07-18 22:00: 0.3850
2025-07-19 06:00: 0.3900
2025-07-19 14:00: 0.3950
2025-07-19 22:00: 0.3900
2025-07-20 06:00: 0.3900
2025-07-20 14:00: 0.4300
2025-07-20 22:00: 0.4250
2025-07-21 06:00: 0.2900
2025-07-21 14:00: 0.2900
2025-07-21 22:00: 0.2900
2025-07-22 06:00: 0.2900
2025-07-22 14:00: 0.3200
2025-07-22 22:00: 0.3200
2025-07-23 05:00: 0.3200
2025-07-23 13:00: 0.3250
2025-07-23 21:00: 0.3400
2025-07-24 05:00: 0.3450
2025-07-24 13:00: 0.3400
2025-07-24 21:00: 0.3400
2025-07-25 05:00: 0.3900
2025-07-25 13:00: 0.3750
2025-07-25 21:00: 0.3850
2025-07-26 05:00: 0.3850
2025-07-26 13:00: 0.3700
2025-07-26 21:00: 0.3700
2025-07-27 05:00: 0.3700
2025-07-27 13:00: 0.3700
2025-07-27 21:00: 0.3750
2025-07-28 05:00: 0.3750
2025-07-28 13:00: 0.3800
2025-07-28 21:00: 0.3850
2025-07-29 05:00: 0.3950
2025-07-29 13:00: 0.3950
2025-07-29 21:00: 0.3850
2025-07-30 05:00: 0.3900
2025-07-30 13:00: 0.3900
2025-07-30 21:00: 0.4050
2025-07-31 05:00: 0.4050
2025-07-31 13:00: 0.4050
2025-07-31 21:00: 0.4050
2025-08-01 05:00: 0.4050
2025-08-01 13:00: 0.4900
2025-08-01 21:00: 0.4850
Trade Summary: No trades available

Output: No


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 529280
Question: Will Mairead McGuinness win the Irish Presidential Election?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 529985.159773
Price History:
2025-08-02 09:00: 0.4850
2025-08-02 17:00: 0.4850
2025-08-03 01:00: 0.4850
2025-08-03 09:00: 0.4850
2025-08-03 17:00: 0.4900
2025-08-04 01:00: 0.4900
2025-08-04 09:00: 0.4900
2025-08-04 17:00: 0.4900
2025-08-05 01:00: 0.4900
2025-08-05 09:00: 0.4900
2025-08-05 17:00: 0.4850
2025-08-06 01:00: 0.4850
2025-08-06 09:00: 0.4950
2025-08-06 17:00: 0.4950
2025-08-07 01:00: 0.5050
2025-08-07 09:00: 0.5050
2025-08-07 17:00: 0.4950
2025-08-08 01:00: 0.5050
2025-08-08 09:00: 0.5050
2025-08-08 17:00: 0.5050
2025-08-09 01:00: 0.5050
2025-08-09 09:00: 0.5150
2025-08-09 17:00: 0.5100
2025-08-10 01:00: 0.4900
2025-08-10 09:00: 0.4900
2025-08-10 17:00: 0.4950
2025-08-11 01:00: 0.5050
2025-08-11 09:00: 0.5050
2025-08-11 17:00: 0.5100
2025-08-12 01:00: 0.5100
2025-08-12 09:00: 0.4900
2025-08-12 17:00: 0.5000
2025-08-13 01:00: 0.5200
2025-08-13 09:00: 0.4650
2025-08-13 17:00: 0.4750
2025-08-14 01:00: 0.4750
2025-08-14 09:00: 0.5200
2025-08-14 17:00: 0.9895
2025-08-15 01:00: 0.9925
2025-08-15 09:00: 0.9940
2025-08-15 17:00: 0.9930
2025-08-16 01:00: 0.9960
2025-08-16 09:00: 0.0085
2025-08-16 17:00: 0.0130
2025-08-17 01:00: 0.9870
2025-08-17 09:00: 0.0200
2025-08-17 17:00: 0.0260
2025-08-18 01:00: 0.9755
2025-08-18 09:00: 0.9765
2025-08-18 17:00: 0.9725
Trade Summary: No trades available

Output: No


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 529280
Question: Will Mairead McGuinness win the Irish Presidential Election?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 529985.159773
Price History:
2025-08-19 05:00: 0.9805
2025-08-19 13:00: 0.9805
2025-08-19 21:00: 0.0195
2025-08-20 05:00: 0.9820
2025-08-20 13:00: 0.0100
2025-08-20 21:00: 0.8885
2025-08-21 05:00: 0.0370
2025-08-21 13:00: 0.0370
2025-08-21 21:00: 0.9655
2025-08-22 05:00: 0.0355
2025-08-22 13:00: 0.0370
2025-08-22 21:00: 0.9700
2025-08-23 05:00: 0.0335
2025-08-23 13:00: 0.9685
2025-08-23 21:00: 0.9690
2025-08-24 05:00: 0.9655
2025-08-24 13:00: 0.9515
2025-08-24 21:00: 0.9780
2025-08-25 05:00: 0.0260
2025-08-25 13:00: 0.0225
2025-08-25 21:00: 0.9880
2025-08-26 04:00: 0.0155
2025-08-26 12:00: 0.9860
2025-08-26 20:00: 0.9860
2025-08-27 04:00: 0.0130
2025-08-27 12:00: 0.9885
2025-08-27 20:00: 0.0130
2025-08-28 04:00: 0.0155
2025-08-28 12:00: 0.0145
2025-08-28 20:00: 0.0140
2025-08-29 04:00: 0.9825
2025-08-29 12:00: 0.0175
2025-08-29 20:00: 0.9825
2025-08-30 04:00: 0.0185
2025-08-30 12:00: 0.9840
2025-08-30 20:00: 0.0155
2025-08-31 04:00: 0.9860
2025-08-31 12:00: 0.0140
2025-08-31 20:00: 0.0135
2025-09-01 04:00: 0.9870
2025-09-01 12:00: 0.0130
2025-09-01 20:00: 0.9870
2025-09-02 04:00: 0.0130
2025-09-02 12:00: 0.9870
2025-09-02 20:00: 0.0140
2025-09-03 04:00: 0.9865
2025-09-03 12:00: 0.9890
2025-09-03 20:00: 0.9885
2025-09-04 04:00: 0.0115
2025-09-04 12:00: 0.9890
Trade Summary: No trades available

Output: No


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 529280
Question: Will Mairead McGuinness win the Irish Presidential Election?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 529985.159773
Price History:
2025-09-05 00:00: 0.0115
2025-09-05 08:00: 0.9890
2025-09-05 16:00: 0.9915
2025-09-06 00:00: 0.9910
2025-09-06 08:00: 0.9925
2025-09-06 16:00: 0.0070
2025-09-07 00:00: 0.0090
2025-09-07 08:00: 0.0050
2025-09-07 16:00: 0.9965
2025-09-08 00:00: 0.9965
2025-09-08 08:00: 0.0035
2025-09-08 16:00: 0.0035
2025-09-09 00:00: 0.0035
2025-09-09 08:00: 0.9960
2025-09-09 16:00: 0.0035
2025-09-10 00:00: 0.9965
2025-09-10 08:00: 0.0035
2025-09-10 16:00: 0.9975
2025-09-11 00:00: 0.9975
2025-09-11 08:00: 0.0025
2025-09-11 16:00: 0.0025
2025-09-12 00:00: 0.0025
2025-09-12 08:00: 0.0025
2025-09-12 16:00: 0.0025
2025-09-13 00:00: 0.0025
2025-09-13 08:00: 0.9975
2025-09-13 16:00: 0.0025
2025-09-14 00:00: 0.0025
2025-09-14 08:00: 0.9975
2025-09-14 16:00: 0.0025
2025-09-15 00:00: 0.0025
2025-09-15 08:00: 0.9975
2025-09-15 16:00: 0.0025
2025-09-16 00:00: 0.0025
2025-09-16 08:00: 0.0025
2025-09-16 16:00: 0.9975
2025-09-17 00:00: 0.0025
2025-09-17 08:00: 0.0025
2025-09-17 17:00: 0.0025
2025-09-18 01:00: 0.9975
2025-09-18 09:00: 0.9975
2025-09-18 17:00: 0.9975
2025-09-19 01:00: 0.0025
2025-09-19 09:00: 0.0025
2025-09-19 17:00: 0.0020
2025-09-20 01:00: 0.9985
2025-09-20 09:00: 0.9985
2025-09-20 17:00: 0.0015
2025-09-21 01:00: 0.0015
2025-09-21 09:00: 0.0015
Trade Summary: No trades available

Output: No


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 529280
Question: Will Mairead McGuinness win the Irish Presidential Election?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 529985.159773
Price History:
2025-09-21 21:00: 0.9985
2025-09-22 05:00: 0.9975
2025-09-22 13:00: 0.9985
2025-09-22 21:00: 0.9985
2025-09-23 05:00: 0.9980
2025-09-23 13:00: 0.0005
2025-09-23 21:00: 0.9995
2025-09-24 05:00: 0.0005
2025-09-24 13:00: 0.0005
2025-09-24 21:00: 0.0005
2025-09-25 05:00: 0.9995
2025-09-25 13:00: 0.9995
2025-09-25 21:00: 0.9995
2025-09-26 05:00: 0.9995
2025-09-26 13:00: 0.9995
2025-09-26 21:00: 0.9995
2025-09-27 05:00: 0.9995
2025-09-27 13:00: 0.9995
2025-09-27 21:00: 0.9995
2025-09-28 05:00: 0.0005
2025-09-28 13:00: 0.9995
2025-09-28 21:00: 0.9995
2025-09-29 05:00: 0.9995
2025-09-29 13:00: 0.0005
2025-09-29 21:00: 0.9995
2025-09-30 05:00: 0.9995
2025-09-30 13:00: 0.9995
2025-09-30 21:00: 0.0005
2025-10-01 05:00: 0.0005
2025-10-01 13:00: 0.0005
2025-10-01 21:00: 0.9995
2025-10-02 05:00: 0.0005
2025-10-02 13:00: 0.0005
2025-10-02 21:00: 0.0005
2025-10-03 05:00: 0.0005
2025-10-03 13:00: 0.0005
2025-10-03 21:00: 0.0005
2025-10-04 05:00: 0.0005
2025-10-04 13:00: 0.0005
2025-10-04 21:00: 0.9995
2025-10-05 05:00: 0.0005
2025-10-05 13:00: 0.0005
2025-10-05 21:00: 0.0005
2025-10-06 05:00: 0.9995
2025-10-06 13:00: 0.9995
2025-10-06 21:00: 0.0005
2025-10-07 05:00: 0.9995
2025-10-07 13:00: 0.9995
2025-10-07 21:00: 0.9995
2025-10-08 05:00: 0.9995
Trade Summary: No trades available

Output: No


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 529280
Question: Will Mairead McGuinness win the Irish Presidential Election?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 529985.159773
Price History:
2025-10-08 17:00: 0.9995
2025-10-09 01:00: 0.9995
2025-10-09 09:00: 0.9995
2025-10-09 17:00: 0.0005
2025-10-10 01:00: 0.0005
2025-10-10 09:00: 0.0005
2025-10-10 17:00: 0.0005
2025-10-11 01:00: 0.9995
2025-10-11 09:00: 0.9995
2025-10-11 17:00: 0.9995
2025-10-12 01:00: 0.9995
2025-10-12 09:00: 0.0005
2025-10-12 17:00: 0.0005
2025-10-13 01:00: 0.0005
2025-10-13 09:00: 0.0005
2025-10-13 17:00: 0.0005
2025-10-14 01:00: 0.0005
2025-10-14 09:00: 0.0005
2025-10-14 17:00: 0.9995
2025-10-15 01:00: 0.0005
2025-10-15 09:00: 0.0005
2025-10-15 17:00: 0.0005
2025-10-16 01:00: 0.0005
2025-10-16 09:00: 0.9995
2025-10-16 17:00: 0.9995
2025-10-17 01:00: 0.9995
2025-10-17 09:00: 0.9995
2025-10-17 17:00: 0.9995
2025-10-18 01:00: 0.0005
2025-10-18 09:00: 0.0005
2025-10-18 17:00: 0.0005
2025-10-19 01:00: 0.0005
2025-10-19 09:00: 0.0005
2025-10-19 17:00: 0.0005
2025-10-20 01:00: 0.0005
2025-10-20 09:00: 0.9995
2025-10-20 17:00: 0.0005
2025-10-21 01:00: 0.9995
2025-10-21 09:00: 0.9995
2025-10-21 17:00: 0.0005
2025-10-22 01:00: 0.9995
2025-10-22 09:00: 0.9995
2025-10-22 17:00: 0.9995
2025-10-23 01:00: 0.9995
2025-10-23 09:00: 0.9995
2025-10-23 17:00: 0.9995
2025-10-24 01:00: 0.9995
2025-10-24 09:00: 0.9995
2025-10-24 17:00: 0.9995
2025-10-25 01:00: 0.9995
Trade Summary: No trades available

Output: No


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 529280
Question: Will Mairead McGuinness win the Irish Presidential Election?
Volume: 529985.159773
Price History:
2025-03-20 17:00: 0.1250
2025-03-21 06:00: 0.1200
2025-03-21 19:00: 0.2250
2025-03-22 08:00: 0.2050
2025-03-22 21:00: 0.2200
2025-03-23 10:00: 0.2600
2025-03-23 23:00: 0.2800
2025-03-24 12:00: 0.2800
2025-03-25 01:00: 0.2800
2025-03-25 14:00: 0.2600
2025-03-26 03:00: 0.2650
2025-03-26 16:00: 0.2250
2025-03-27 05:00: 0.2500
2025-03-27 18:00: 0.2550
2025-03-28 07:00: 0.2500
2025-03-28 20:00: 0.2500
2025-03-29 09:00: 0.2500
2025-03-29 22:00: 0.2500
2025-03-30 11:00: 0.2500
2025-03-31 00:00: 0.2500
2025-03-31 13:00: 0.2500
2025-04-01 02:00: 0.2500
2025-04-01 15:00: 0.2450
2025-04-02 04:00: 0.2450
2025-04-02 17:00: 0.2450
2025-04-03 06:00: 0.2450
2025-04-03 19:00: 0.2450
2025-04-04 08:00: 0.2450
2025-04-04 21:00: 0.2450
2025-04-05 10:00: 0.2450
Trade Summary: No trades available
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 529280
Question: Will Mairead McGuinness win the Irish Presidential Election?
Volume: 529985.159773
Price History:
2025-04-06 13:00: 0.2450
2025-04-07 02:00: 0.2450
2025-04-07 15:00: 0.2450
2025-04-08 04:00: 0.2450
2025-04-08 17:00: 0.2450
2025-04-09 06:00: 0.2450
2025-04-09 19:00: 0.2450
2025-04-10 08:00: 0.2450
2025-04-10 21:00: 0.2450
2025-04-11 10:00: 0.2450
2025-04-11 23:00: 0.2450
2025-04-12 12:00: 0.2450
2025-04-13 01:00: 0.2450
2025-04-13 14:00: 0.2450
2025-04-14 03:00: 0.2450
2025-04-14 16:00: 0.2450
2025-04-15 05:00: 0.2450
2025-04-15 18:00: 0.2450
2025-04-16 07:00: 0.2450
2025-04-16 20:00: 0.2450
2025-04-17 09:00: 0.2450
2025-04-17 22:00: 0.2450
2025-04-18 11:00: 0.2450
2025-04-19 00:00: 0.2450
2025-04-19 13:00: 0.2450
2025-04-20 02:00: 0.2450
2025-04-20 15:00: 0.2450
2025-04-21 04:00: 0.2450
2025-04-21 17:00: 0.2450
2025-04-22 06:00: 0.2450
Trade Summary: No trades available
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 529280
Question: Will Mairead McGuinness win the Irish Presidential Election?
Volume: 529985.159773
Price History:
2025-04-23 09:00: 0.2450
2025-04-23 22:00: 0.2450
2025-04-24 11:00: 0.2450
2025-04-25 00:00: 0.2450
2025-04-25 13:00: 0.2450
2025-04-26 02:00: 0.2450
2025-04-26 15:00: 0.2450
2025-04-27 04:00: 0.2450
2025-04-27 17:00: 0.2450
2025-04-28 06:00: 0.2450
2025-04-28 19:00: 0.2450
2025-04-29 08:00: 0.2450
2025-04-29 21:00: 0.2450
2025-04-30 10:00: 0.2450
2025-04-30 23:00: 0.2450
2025-05-01 12:00: 0.2550
2025-05-02 01:00: 0.2550
2025-05-02 14:00: 0.2700
2025-05-03 03:00: 0.2950
2025-05-03 16:00: 0.2850
2025-05-04 05:00: 0.2950
2025-05-04 18:00: 0.2850
2025-05-05 07:00: 0.2900
2025-05-05 20:00: 0.2650
2025-05-06 09:00: 0.2650
2025-05-06 22:00: 0.2650
2025-05-07 11:00: 0.2650
2025-05-08 00:00: 0.2650
2025-05-08 13:00: 0.2150
2025-05-09 02:00: 0.2150
Trade Summary: No trades available
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 529280
Question: Will Mairead McGuinness win the Irish Presidential Election?
Volume: 529985.159773
Price History:
2025-05-10 05:00: 0.2150
2025-05-10 18:00: 0.2150
2025-05-11 07:00: 0.2150
2025-05-11 20:00: 0.2100
2025-05-12 09:00: 0.2100
2025-05-12 22:00: 0.2100
2025-05-13 11:00: 0.2100
2025-05-14 00:00: 0.2150
2025-05-14 13:00: 0.2100
2025-05-15 02:00: 0.1950
2025-05-15 15:00: 0.1950
2025-05-16 04:00: 0.1950
2025-05-16 17:00: 0.1950
2025-05-17 06:00: 0.1950
2025-05-17 19:00: 0.2050
2025-05-18 08:00: 0.2050
2025-05-18 21:00: 0.2050
2025-05-19 10:00: 0.2050
2025-05-19 23:00: 0.1950
2025-05-20 12:00: 0.1950
2025-05-21 01:00: 0.2000
2025-05-21 14:00: 0.2000
2025-05-22 03:00: 0.2350
2025-05-22 16:00: 0.2350
2025-05-23 05:00: 0.2400
2025-05-23 18:00: 0.2350
2025-05-24 07:00: 0.2400
2025-05-24 20:00: 0.3350
2025-05-25 09:00: 0.2850
2025-05-25 22:00: 0.2850
Trade Summary: No trades available
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 529280
Question: Will Mairead McGuinness win the Irish Presidential Election?
Volume: 529985.159773
Price History:
2025-05-27 01:00: 0.3150
2025-05-27 14:00: 0.3000
2025-05-28 03:00: 0.3150
2025-05-28 16:00: 0.3150
2025-05-29 05:00: 0.3050
2025-05-29 18:00: 0.3050
2025-05-30 07:00: 0.2850
2025-05-30 20:00: 0.2900
2025-05-31 09:00: 0.2850
2025-05-31 22:00: 0.2850
2025-06-01 11:00: 0.2850
2025-06-02 00:00: 0.3450
2025-06-02 13:00: 0.3450
2025-06-03 02:00: 0.3450
2025-06-03 15:00: 0.3500
2025-06-04 04:00: 0.3500
2025-06-04 17:00: 0.3500
2025-06-05 06:00: 0.3350
2025-06-05 19:00: 0.3500
2025-06-06 08:00: 0.3500
2025-06-06 21:00: 0.3350
2025-06-07 10:00: 0.3300
2025-06-07 23:00: 0.3300
2025-06-08 12:00: 0.3300
2025-06-09 01:00: 0.3300
2025-06-09 14:00: 0.3300
2025-06-10 03:00: 0.3300
2025-06-10 16:00: 0.3300
2025-06-11 05:00: 0.3300
2025-06-11 18:00: 0.3350
Trade Summary: No trades available
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility

Output: No


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 529280
Question: Will Mairead McGuinness win the Irish Presidential Election?
Volume: 529985.159773
Price History:
2025-06-12 21:00: 0.3350
2025-06-13 11:00: 0.3450
2025-06-14 00:00: 0.3650
2025-06-14 13:00: 0.3600
2025-06-15 02:00: 0.3800
2025-06-15 15:00: 0.3800
2025-06-16 04:00: 0.3700
2025-06-16 17:00: 0.3700
2025-06-17 06:00: 0.3700
2025-06-17 19:00: 0.3750
2025-06-18 08:00: 0.3550
2025-06-18 21:00: 0.3550
2025-06-19 10:00: 0.3350
2025-06-19 23:00: 0.3300
2025-06-20 12:00: 0.3400
2025-06-21 01:00: 0.3150
2025-06-21 14:00: 0.3150
2025-06-22 03:00: 0.3350
2025-06-22 16:00: 0.3350
2025-06-23 05:00: 0.3350
2025-06-23 18:00: 0.3350
2025-06-24 07:00: 0.3750
2025-06-24 20:00: 0.3800
2025-06-25 09:00: 0.4250
2025-06-25 22:00: 0.3550
2025-06-26 11:00: 0.3950
2025-06-27 00:00: 0.3950
2025-06-27 13:00: 0.3950
2025-06-28 02:00: 0.3800
2025-06-28 15:00: 0.3800
Trade Summary: No trades available
Manipulation Indicators Detected: None

Output: No


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 529280
Question: Will Mairead McGuinness win the Irish Presidential Election?
Volume: 529985.159773
Price History:
2025-06-29 18:00: 0.3800
2025-06-30 07:00: 0.3700
2025-06-30 20:00: 0.3900
2025-07-01 09:00: 0.3950
2025-07-01 22:00: 0.3450
2025-07-02 11:00: 0.3500
2025-07-03 00:00: 0.3650
2025-07-03 13:00: 0.3550
2025-07-04 02:00: 0.3650
2025-07-04 15:00: 0.3900
2025-07-05 04:00: 0.4000
2025-07-05 17:00: 0.4250
2025-07-06 06:00: 0.3900
2025-07-06 19:00: 0.3850
2025-07-07 08:00: 0.4050
2025-07-07 21:00: 0.3750
2025-07-08 10:00: 0.4000
2025-07-08 23:00: 0.3950
2025-07-09 12:00: 0.3950
2025-07-10 01:00: 0.3900
2025-07-10 14:00: 0.3900
2025-07-11 03:00: 0.3900
2025-07-11 16:00: 0.3650
2025-07-12 05:00: 0.3900
2025-07-12 18:00: 0.3900
2025-07-13 07:00: 0.3900
2025-07-13 20:00: 0.3900
2025-07-14 09:00: 0.3950
2025-07-14 22:00: 0.4100
2025-07-15 11:00: 0.4150
Trade Summary: No trades available
Manipulation Indicators Detected: None

Output: No


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 529280
Question: Will Mairead McGuinness win the Irish Presidential Election?
Volume: 529985.159773
Price History:
2025-07-16 14:00: 0.3850
2025-07-17 03:00: 0.4250
2025-07-17 16:00: 0.4250
2025-07-18 05:00: 0.3850
2025-07-18 18:00: 0.3850
2025-07-19 07:00: 0.3900
2025-07-19 20:00: 0.3850
2025-07-20 09:00: 0.4250
2025-07-20 22:00: 0.4250
2025-07-21 11:00: 0.3000
2025-07-22 00:00: 0.2900
2025-07-22 13:00: 0.3200
2025-07-23 01:00: 0.3250
2025-07-23 14:00: 0.3250
2025-07-24 03:00: 0.3450
2025-07-24 16:00: 0.3400
2025-07-25 05:00: 0.3900
2025-07-25 18:00: 0.3750
2025-07-26 07:00: 0.3850
2025-07-26 20:00: 0.3700
2025-07-27 09:00: 0.3700
2025-07-27 22:00: 0.3750
2025-07-28 11:00: 0.3750
2025-07-29 00:00: 0.3850
2025-07-29 13:00: 0.3950
2025-07-30 02:00: 0.3850
2025-07-30 15:00: 0.4050
2025-07-31 04:00: 0.4050
2025-07-31 17:00: 0.4050
2025-08-01 06:00: 0.4050
Trade Summary: No trades available
Manipulation Indicators Detected: None

Output: No


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 529280
Question: Will Mairead McGuinness win the Irish Presidential Election?
Volume: 529985.159773
Price History:
2025-08-02 09:00: 0.4850
2025-08-02 22:00: 0.4850
2025-08-03 11:00: 0.4900
2025-08-04 00:00: 0.4900
2025-08-04 13:00: 0.4900
2025-08-05 02:00: 0.4900
2025-08-05 15:00: 0.4850
2025-08-06 04:00: 0.4850
2025-08-06 17:00: 0.4950
2025-08-07 06:00: 0.4950
2025-08-07 19:00: 0.5050
2025-08-08 08:00: 0.5050
2025-08-08 21:00: 0.5050
2025-08-09 10:00: 0.4850
2025-08-09 23:00: 0.5100
2025-08-10 12:00: 0.4950
2025-08-11 01:00: 0.5050
2025-08-11 14:00: 0.5100
2025-08-12 03:00: 0.5100
2025-08-12 16:00: 0.5000
2025-08-13 05:00: 0.4450
2025-08-13 18:00: 0.5250
2025-08-14 07:00: 0.5250
2025-08-14 20:00: 0.9930
2025-08-15 09:00: 0.9940
2025-08-15 22:00: 0.9930
2025-08-16 11:00: 0.9910
2025-08-17 00:00: 0.9870
2025-08-17 13:00: 0.0200
2025-08-18 02:00: 0.0245
Trade Summary: No trades available
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 529280
Question: Will Mairead McGuinness win the Irish Presidential Election?
Volume: 529985.159773
Price History:
2025-08-19 05:00: 0.9805
2025-08-19 18:00: 0.9815
2025-08-20 07:00: 0.9945
2025-08-20 20:00: 0.9025
2025-08-21 09:00: 0.9760
2025-08-21 22:00: 0.0335
2025-08-22 11:00: 0.0370
2025-08-23 00:00: 0.9665
2025-08-23 13:00: 0.9685
2025-08-24 02:00: 0.0340
2025-08-24 15:00: 0.9505
2025-08-25 04:00: 0.9760
2025-08-25 17:00: 0.0225
2025-08-26 05:00: 0.0150
2025-08-26 18:00: 0.0145
2025-08-27 07:00: 0.0125
2025-08-27 20:00: 0.0130
2025-08-28 09:00: 0.0140
2025-08-28 22:00: 0.0155
2025-08-29 11:00: 0.9825
2025-08-30 00:00: 0.9810
2025-08-30 13:00: 0.9835
2025-08-31 02:00: 0.0145
2025-08-31 15:00: 0.9865
2025-09-01 04:00: 0.9870
2025-09-01 17:00: 0.0130
2025-09-02 06:00: 0.0135
2025-09-02 19:00: 0.9860
2025-09-03 08:00: 0.9865
2025-09-03 21:00: 0.9890
Trade Summary: No trades available
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 529280
Question: Will Mairead McGuinness win the Irish Presidential Election?
Volume: 529985.159773
Price History:
2025-09-05 00:00: 0.0115
2025-09-05 13:00: 0.9890
2025-09-06 02:00: 0.9910
2025-09-06 15:00: 0.0070
2025-09-07 04:00: 0.9910
2025-09-07 17:00: 0.9965
2025-09-08 06:00: 0.9965
2025-09-08 19:00: 0.0035
2025-09-09 08:00: 0.9960
2025-09-09 21:00: 0.9965
2025-09-10 10:00: 0.9975
2025-09-10 23:00: 0.9975
2025-09-11 12:00: 0.0025
2025-09-12 01:00: 0.0025
2025-09-12 14:00: 0.0025
2025-09-13 03:00: 0.9975
2025-09-13 16:00: 0.0025
2025-09-14 05:00: 0.9975
2025-09-14 18:00: 0.9975
2025-09-15 07:00: 0.0025
2025-09-15 20:00: 0.0025
2025-09-16 09:00: 0.0025
2025-09-16 22:00: 0.9975
2025-09-17 11:00: 0.9975
2025-09-18 01:00: 0.9975
2025-09-18 14:00: 0.9975
2025-09-19 03:00: 0.9975
2025-09-19 16:00: 0.9980
2025-09-20 05:00: 0.0015
2025-09-20 18:00: 0.0015
Trade Summary: No trades available
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 529280
Question: Will Mairead McGuinness win the Irish Presidential Election?
Volume: 529985.159773
Price History:
2025-09-21 21:00: 0.9985
2025-09-22 10:00: 0.9985
2025-09-22 23:00: 0.9985
2025-09-23 12:00: 0.0005
2025-09-24 01:00: 0.9995
2025-09-24 14:00: 0.0005
2025-09-25 03:00: 0.0005
2025-09-25 16:00: 0.9995
2025-09-26 05:00: 0.9995
2025-09-26 18:00: 0.9995
2025-09-27 07:00: 0.9995
2025-09-27 20:00: 0.0005
2025-09-28 09:00: 0.9995
2025-09-28 22:00: 0.9995
2025-09-29 11:00: 0.0005
2025-09-30 00:00: 0.0005
2025-09-30 13:00: 0.9995
2025-10-01 02:00: 0.9995
2025-10-01 15:00: 0.0005
2025-10-02 04:00: 0.0005
2025-10-02 17:00: 0.9995
2025-10-03 06:00: 0.0005
2025-10-03 19:00: 0.0005
2025-10-04 08:00: 0.0005
2025-10-04 21:00: 0.9995
2025-10-05 10:00: 0.9995
2025-10-05 23:00: 0.0005
2025-10-06 12:00: 0.0005
2025-10-07 01:00: 0.0005
2025-10-07 14:00: 0.9995
Trade Summary: No trades available
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 529280
Question: Will Mairead McGuinness win the Irish Presidential Election?
Volume: 529985.159773
Price History:
2025-10-08 17:00: 0.9995
2025-10-09 06:00: 0.9995
2025-10-09 19:00: 0.9995
2025-10-10 08:00: 0.9995
2025-10-10 21:00: 0.0005
2025-10-11 10:00: 0.0005
2025-10-11 23:00: 0.0005
2025-10-12 12:00: 0.0005
2025-10-13 01:00: 0.0005
2025-10-13 14:00: 0.0005
2025-10-14 03:00: 0.0005
2025-10-14 16:00: 0.0005
2025-10-15 05:00: 0.0005
2025-10-15 18:00: 0.0005
2025-10-16 07:00: 0.9995
2025-10-16 20:00: 0.0005
2025-10-17 09:00: 0.9995
2025-10-17 22:00: 0.9995
2025-10-18 11:00: 0.0005
2025-10-19 00:00: 0.9995
2025-10-19 13:00: 0.0005
2025-10-20 02:00: 0.0005
2025-10-20 15:00: 0.0005
2025-10-21 04:00: 0.9995
2025-10-21 17:00: 0.0005
2025-10-22 06:00: 0.9995
2025-10-22 19:00: 0.9995
2025-10-23 08:00: 0.9995
2025-10-23 21:00: 0.9995
2025-10-24 10:00: 0.9995
Trade Summary: No trades available
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 529299
Question: Will Frances Black win the Irish Presidential Election?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 431228.170716
Price History:
2025-03-20 17:00: 0.1750
2025-03-21 01:00: 0.1700
2025-03-21 09:00: 0.1850
2025-03-21 17:00: 0.1800
2025-03-22 01:00: 0.0950
2025-03-22 09:00: 0.0950
2025-03-22 17:00: 0.0850
2025-03-23 01:00: 0.0850
2025-03-23 09:00: 0.0800
2025-03-23 17:00: 0.0800
2025-03-24 01:00: 0.0850
2025-03-24 09:00: 0.0850
2025-03-24 17:00: 0.0850
2025-03-25 01:00: 0.0850
2025-03-25 09:00: 0.0850
2025-03-25 17:00: 0.0850
2025-03-26 01:00: 0.0900
2025-03-26 09:00: 0.0900
2025-03-26 17:00: 0.0900
2025-03-27 01:00: 0.0900
2025-03-27 09:00: 0.0900
2025-03-27 17:00: 0.0900
2025-03-28 01:00: 0.0900
2025-03-28 09:00: 0.0900
2025-03-28 17:00: 0.0900
2025-03-29 01:00: 0.0900
2025-03-29 09:00: 0.0900
2025-03-29 17:00: 0.0900
2025-03-30 01:00: 0.0950
2025-03-30 09:00: 0.0950
2025-03-30 17:00: 0.0950
2025-03-31 01:00: 0.0950
2025-03-31 09:00: 0.0950
2025-03-31 17:00: 0.0950
2025-04-01 01:00: 0.0950
2025-04-01 09:00: 0.0950
2025-04-01 17:00: 0.0950
2025-04-02 01:00: 0.0950
2025-04-02 09:00: 0.0950
2025-04-02 17:00: 0.0950
2025-04-03 01:00: 0.0950
2025-04-03 09:00: 0.0950
2025-04-03 17:00: 0.0950
2025-04-04 01:00: 0.0950
2025-04-04 09:00: 0.0950
2025-04-04 17:00: 0.0950
2025-04-05 01:00: 0.0950
2025-04-05 09:00: 0.0950
2025-04-05 17:00: 0.0950
2025-04-06 01:00: 0.0950
Trade Summary: No trades available

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 529299
Question: Will Frances Black win the Irish Presidential Election?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 431228.170716
Price History:
2025-04-06 13:00: 0.0950
2025-04-06 21:00: 0.0950
2025-04-07 05:00: 0.0950
2025-04-07 13:00: 0.1050
2025-04-07 21:00: 0.1050
2025-04-08 05:00: 0.1050
2025-04-08 13:00: 0.1050
2025-04-08 21:00: 0.1050
2025-04-09 05:00: 0.1050
2025-04-09 13:00: 0.1050
2025-04-09 21:00: 0.1050
2025-04-10 05:00: 0.1050
2025-04-10 13:00: 0.1050
2025-04-10 21:00: 0.1050
2025-04-11 05:00: 0.1050
2025-04-11 13:00: 0.1050
2025-04-11 21:00: 0.1050
2025-04-12 05:00: 0.1050
2025-04-12 13:00: 0.1050
2025-04-12 21:00: 0.1050
2025-04-13 05:00: 0.1050
2025-04-13 13:00: 0.1050
2025-04-13 21:00: 0.1050
2025-04-14 05:00: 0.1050
2025-04-14 13:00: 0.1050
2025-04-14 21:00: 0.1050
2025-04-15 05:00: 0.1050
2025-04-15 13:00: 0.1050
2025-04-15 21:00: 0.1050
2025-04-16 05:00: 0.1050
2025-04-16 13:00: 0.1050
2025-04-16 21:00: 0.1050
2025-04-17 05:00: 0.1050
2025-04-17 13:00: 0.1050
2025-04-17 21:00: 0.1050
2025-04-18 05:00: 0.1050
2025-04-18 13:00: 0.1050
2025-04-18 21:00: 0.1050
2025-04-19 05:00: 0.1050
2025-04-19 13:00: 0.1050
2025-04-19 21:00: 0.1050
2025-04-20 05:00: 0.1050
2025-04-20 13:00: 0.1050
2025-04-20 21:00: 0.1050
2025-04-21 05:00: 0.1050
2025-04-21 13:00: 0.1050
2025-04-21 21:00: 0.1050
2025-04-22 05:00: 0.1050
2025-04-22 13:00: 0.1050
2025-04-22 21:00: 0.1000
Trade Summary: No trades available

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 529299
Question: Will Frances Black win the Irish Presidential Election?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 431228.170716
Price History:
2025-04-23 09:00: 0.1000
2025-04-23 17:00: 0.1000
2025-04-24 01:00: 0.1000
2025-04-24 09:00: 0.1000
2025-04-24 17:00: 0.1000
2025-04-25 01:00: 0.1000
2025-04-25 09:00: 0.1000
2025-04-25 17:00: 0.1000
2025-04-26 01:00: 0.1000
2025-04-26 09:00: 0.1000
2025-04-26 17:00: 0.1000
2025-04-27 01:00: 0.1000
2025-04-27 09:00: 0.1000
2025-04-27 17:00: 0.1000
2025-04-28 01:00: 0.1000
2025-04-28 09:00: 0.1000
2025-04-28 17:00: 0.1000
2025-04-29 01:00: 0.1000
2025-04-29 09:00: 0.1000
2025-04-29 17:00: 0.1000
2025-04-30 01:00: 0.1000
2025-04-30 09:00: 0.1000
2025-04-30 17:00: 0.1000
2025-05-01 01:00: 0.1000
2025-05-01 09:00: 0.1000
2025-05-01 17:00: 0.1000
2025-05-02 01:00: 0.1000
2025-05-02 09:00: 0.1000
2025-05-02 17:00: 0.1000
2025-05-03 01:00: 0.1000
2025-05-03 09:00: 0.1000
2025-05-03 17:00: 0.1000
2025-05-04 01:00: 0.1000
2025-05-04 09:00: 0.1000
2025-05-04 17:00: 0.1000
2025-05-05 01:00: 0.1000
2025-05-05 09:00: 0.1000
2025-05-05 17:00: 0.1000
2025-05-06 01:00: 0.1000
2025-05-06 09:00: 0.1000
2025-05-06 17:00: 0.1000
2025-05-07 01:00: 0.1050
2025-05-07 09:00: 0.1050
2025-05-07 17:00: 0.1050
2025-05-08 01:00: 0.1050
2025-05-08 09:00: 0.1100
2025-05-08 17:00: 0.1100
2025-05-09 01:00: 0.1100
2025-05-09 09:00: 0.1050
2025-05-09 17:00: 0.1950
Trade Summary: No trades available

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 529299
Question: Will Frances Black win the Irish Presidential Election?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 431228.170716
Price History:
2025-05-10 05:00: 0.1750
2025-05-10 13:00: 0.1750
2025-05-10 21:00: 0.1750
2025-05-11 05:00: 0.1600
2025-05-11 13:00: 0.1650
2025-05-11 21:00: 0.1650
2025-05-12 05:00: 0.1700
2025-05-12 13:00: 0.1650
2025-05-12 21:00: 0.1650
2025-05-13 05:00: 0.1650
2025-05-13 13:00: 0.1750
2025-05-13 21:00: 0.1700
2025-05-14 05:00: 0.1750
2025-05-14 13:00: 0.1750
2025-05-14 21:00: 0.1750
2025-05-15 05:00: 0.1750
2025-05-15 13:00: 0.0450
2025-05-15 21:00: 0.1100
2025-05-16 05:00: 0.1200
2025-05-16 13:00: 0.1400
2025-05-16 21:00: 0.1250
2025-05-17 05:00: 0.1500
2025-05-17 13:00: 0.1650
2025-05-17 21:00: 0.1650
2025-05-18 05:00: 0.1600
2025-05-18 13:00: 0.1650
2025-05-18 21:00: 0.1650
2025-05-19 05:00: 0.1700
2025-05-19 13:00: 0.1750
2025-05-19 21:00: 0.1600
2025-05-20 05:00: 0.1600
2025-05-20 13:00: 0.1600
2025-05-20 21:00: 0.1550
2025-05-21 05:00: 0.1550
2025-05-21 13:00: 0.1550
2025-05-21 21:00: 0.1550
2025-05-22 05:00: 0.1550
2025-05-22 13:00: 0.1550
2025-05-22 21:00: 0.1550
2025-05-23 05:00: 0.1550
2025-05-23 13:00: 0.1550
2025-05-23 21:00: 0.1550
2025-05-24 05:00: 0.1550
2025-05-24 13:00: 0.1550
2025-05-24 21:00: 0.1550
2025-05-25 05:00: 0.1550
2025-05-25 13:00: 0.1550
2025-05-25 21:00: 0.1550
2025-05-26 05:00: 0.1550
2025-05-26 13:00: 0.1550
Trade Summary: No trades available

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 529299
Question: Will Frances Black win the Irish Presidential Election?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 431228.170716
Price History:
2025-05-27 01:00: 0.1550
2025-05-27 09:00: 0.1550
2025-05-27 17:00: 0.1550
2025-05-28 01:00: 0.1550
2025-05-28 09:00: 0.1550
2025-05-28 17:00: 0.1500
2025-05-29 01:00: 0.1500
2025-05-29 09:00: 0.1500
2025-05-29 17:00: 0.1500
2025-05-30 01:00: 0.1550
2025-05-30 09:00: 0.1550
2025-05-30 17:00: 0.1550
2025-05-31 01:00: 0.1550
2025-05-31 09:00: 0.1550
2025-05-31 17:00: 0.1200
2025-06-01 01:00: 0.1150
2025-06-01 09:00: 0.1150
2025-06-01 17:00: 0.1200
2025-06-02 01:00: 0.0320
2025-06-02 09:00: 0.0330
2025-06-02 17:00: 0.0320
2025-06-03 01:00: 0.0360
2025-06-03 09:00: 0.0275
2025-06-03 17:00: 0.0420
2025-06-04 01:00: 0.0520
2025-06-04 09:00: 0.0560
2025-06-04 17:00: 0.0520
2025-06-05 01:00: 0.0485
2025-06-05 09:00: 0.0485
2025-06-05 17:00: 0.0505
2025-06-06 01:00: 0.0520
2025-06-06 09:00: 0.0565
2025-06-06 17:00: 0.1025
2025-06-07 01:00: 0.1055
2025-06-07 09:00: 0.1065
2025-06-07 17:00: 0.1065
2025-06-08 01:00: 0.1035
2025-06-08 09:00: 0.1035
2025-06-08 17:00: 0.1045
2025-06-09 01:00: 0.1035
2025-06-09 09:00: 0.1035
2025-06-09 17:00: 0.1150
2025-06-10 01:00: 0.1180
2025-06-10 09:00: 0.1175
2025-06-10 17:00: 0.1180
2025-06-11 01:00: 0.1180
2025-06-11 09:00: 0.1180
2025-06-11 17:00: 0.1195
2025-06-12 01:00: 0.1180
2025-06-12 09:00: 0.1180
Trade Summary: No trades available

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 529299
Question: Will Frances Black win the Irish Presidential Election?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 431228.170716
Price History:
2025-06-12 21:00: 0.1255
2025-06-13 06:00: 0.1220
2025-06-13 14:00: 0.1220
2025-06-13 22:00: 0.1200
2025-06-14 06:00: 0.1220
2025-06-14 14:00: 0.1240
2025-06-14 22:00: 0.1185
2025-06-15 06:00: 0.1180
2025-06-15 14:00: 0.1300
2025-06-15 22:00: 0.0065
2025-06-16 06:00: 0.0265
2025-06-16 14:00: 0.0200
2025-06-16 22:00: 0.0200
2025-06-17 06:00: 0.0200
2025-06-17 14:00: 0.0200
2025-06-17 22:00: 0.0210
2025-06-18 06:00: 0.0205
2025-06-18 14:00: 0.0205
2025-06-18 22:00: 0.0175
2025-06-19 06:00: 0.0175
2025-06-19 14:00: 0.0175
2025-06-19 22:00: 0.0175
2025-06-20 06:00: 0.0175
2025-06-20 14:00: 0.0175
2025-06-20 22:00: 0.0175
2025-06-21 06:00: 0.0175
2025-06-21 14:00: 0.0175
2025-06-21 22:00: 0.0235
2025-06-22 06:00: 0.0235
2025-06-22 14:00: 0.0400
2025-06-22 22:00: 0.0575
2025-06-23 06:00: 0.0580
2025-06-23 14:00: 0.0460
2025-06-23 22:00: 0.0445
2025-06-24 06:00: 0.0570
2025-06-24 14:00: 0.0565
2025-06-24 22:00: 0.0580
2025-06-25 06:00: 0.0585
2025-06-25 14:00: 0.0585
2025-06-25 22:00: 0.0585
2025-06-26 06:00: 0.0585
2025-06-26 14:00: 0.0585
2025-06-26 22:00: 0.0585
2025-06-27 06:00: 0.0585
2025-06-27 14:00: 0.0585
2025-06-27 22:00: 0.0585
2025-06-28 06:00: 0.0585
2025-06-28 14:00: 0.0585
2025-06-28 22:00: 0.0585
2025-06-29 06:00: 0.0585
Trade Summary: No trades available

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 529299
Question: Will Frances Black win the Irish Presidential Election?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 431228.170716
Price History:
2025-06-29 18:00: 0.0585
2025-06-30 02:00: 0.0585
2025-06-30 10:00: 0.0585
2025-06-30 18:00: 0.0585
2025-07-01 02:00: 0.0585
2025-07-01 10:00: 0.0585
2025-07-01 18:00: 0.0585
2025-07-02 02:00: 0.0585
2025-07-02 10:00: 0.0585
2025-07-02 18:00: 0.0585
2025-07-03 02:00: 0.0585
2025-07-03 10:00: 0.0605
2025-07-03 18:00: 0.0645
2025-07-04 02:00: 0.0650
2025-07-04 10:00: 0.0645
2025-07-04 18:00: 0.0635
2025-07-05 02:00: 0.0635
2025-07-05 10:00: 0.0635
2025-07-05 18:00: 0.0635
2025-07-06 02:00: 0.0635
2025-07-06 10:00: 0.0605
2025-07-06 18:00: 0.0625
2025-07-07 02:00: 0.0635
2025-07-07 10:00: 0.0615
2025-07-07 18:00: 0.0615
2025-07-08 02:00: 0.0605
2025-07-08 10:00: 0.0615
2025-07-08 18:00: 0.0615
2025-07-09 02:00: 0.0615
2025-07-09 10:00: 0.0590
2025-07-09 18:00: 0.0590
2025-07-10 02:00: 0.0520
2025-07-10 10:00: 0.0635
2025-07-10 18:00: 0.0640
2025-07-11 02:00: 0.0640
2025-07-11 10:00: 0.0645
2025-07-11 18:00: 0.0650
2025-07-12 02:00: 0.0650
2025-07-12 10:00: 0.0645
2025-07-12 18:00: 0.0645
2025-07-13 02:00: 0.0650
2025-07-13 10:00: 0.0645
2025-07-13 18:00: 0.0645
2025-07-14 02:00: 0.0620
2025-07-14 10:00: 0.0605
2025-07-14 18:00: 0.0585
2025-07-15 02:00: 0.0585
2025-07-15 10:00: 0.0555
2025-07-15 18:00: 0.0530
2025-07-16 02:00: 0.0515
Trade Summary: No trades available

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 529299
Question: Will Frances Black win the Irish Presidential Election?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 431228.170716
Price History:
2025-07-16 14:00: 0.0505
2025-07-16 22:00: 0.0305
2025-07-17 06:00: 0.0355
2025-07-17 14:00: 0.0330
2025-07-17 22:00: 0.0325
2025-07-18 06:00: 0.0340
2025-07-18 14:00: 0.0370
2025-07-18 22:00: 0.0305
2025-07-19 06:00: 0.0385
2025-07-19 14:00: 0.0395
2025-07-19 22:00: 0.0400
2025-07-20 06:00: 0.0400
2025-07-20 14:00: 0.0405
2025-07-20 22:00: 0.0405
2025-07-21 06:00: 0.0395
2025-07-21 14:00: 0.0400
2025-07-21 22:00: 0.0385
2025-07-22 06:00: 0.0385
2025-07-22 14:00: 0.0360
2025-07-22 22:00: 0.0375
2025-07-23 05:00: 0.0375
2025-07-23 13:00: 0.0380
2025-07-23 21:00: 0.0380
2025-07-24 05:00: 0.0375
2025-07-24 13:00: 0.0380
2025-07-24 21:00: 0.0370
2025-07-25 05:00: 0.0380
2025-07-25 13:00: 0.0385
2025-07-25 21:00: 0.0370
2025-07-26 05:00: 0.0375
2025-07-26 13:00: 0.0375
2025-07-26 21:00: 0.0380
2025-07-27 05:00: 0.0380
2025-07-27 13:00: 0.0385
2025-07-27 21:00: 0.0385
2025-07-28 05:00: 0.0385
2025-07-28 13:00: 0.0385
2025-07-28 21:00: 0.0380
2025-07-29 05:00: 0.0380
2025-07-29 13:00: 0.0380
2025-07-29 21:00: 0.0380
2025-07-30 05:00: 0.0380
2025-07-30 13:00: 0.0370
2025-07-30 21:00: 0.0360
2025-07-31 05:00: 0.0340
2025-07-31 13:00: 0.0340
2025-07-31 21:00: 0.0335
2025-08-01 05:00: 0.0330
2025-08-01 13:00: 0.0270
2025-08-01 21:00: 0.0240
Trade Summary: No trades available

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 529299
Question: Will Frances Black win the Irish Presidential Election?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 431228.170716
Price History:
2025-08-02 09:00: 0.0255
2025-08-02 17:00: 0.0255
2025-08-03 01:00: 0.0255
2025-08-03 09:00: 0.0235
2025-08-03 17:00: 0.0255
2025-08-04 01:00: 0.0255
2025-08-04 09:00: 0.0255
2025-08-04 17:00: 0.0255
2025-08-05 01:00: 0.0255
2025-08-05 09:00: 0.0245
2025-08-05 17:00: 0.0245
2025-08-06 01:00: 0.0245
2025-08-06 09:00: 0.0245
2025-08-06 17:00: 0.9755
2025-08-07 01:00: 0.9755
2025-08-07 09:00: 0.9755
2025-08-07 17:00: 0.0245
2025-08-08 01:00: 0.9770
2025-08-08 09:00: 0.9775
2025-08-08 17:00: 0.0225
2025-08-09 01:00: 0.9775
2025-08-09 09:00: 0.9785
2025-08-09 17:00: 0.9785
2025-08-10 01:00: 0.9775
2025-08-10 09:00: 0.0225
2025-08-10 17:00: 0.0220
2025-08-11 01:00: 0.0215
2025-08-11 09:00: 0.9785
2025-08-11 17:00: 0.9785
2025-08-12 01:00: 0.9785
2025-08-12 09:00: 0.0210
2025-08-12 17:00: 0.9785
2025-08-13 01:00: 0.9785
2025-08-13 09:00: 0.0215
2025-08-13 17:00: 0.0215
2025-08-14 01:00: 0.0215
2025-08-14 09:00: 0.0215
2025-08-14 17:00: 0.0215
2025-08-15 01:00: 0.0210
2025-08-15 09:00: 0.0210
2025-08-15 17:00: 0.0210
2025-08-16 01:00: 0.9825
2025-08-16 09:00: 0.0160
2025-08-16 17:00: 0.9855
2025-08-17 01:00: 0.9855
2025-08-17 09:00: 0.0130
2025-08-17 17:00: 0.9875
2025-08-18 01:00: 0.0135
2025-08-18 09:00: 0.0130
2025-08-18 17:00: 0.9865
Trade Summary: No trades available

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 529299
Question: Will Frances Black win the Irish Presidential Election?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 431228.170716
Price History:
2025-08-19 05:00: 0.9895
2025-08-19 13:00: 0.9885
2025-08-19 21:00: 0.0115
2025-08-20 05:00: 0.9880
2025-08-20 13:00: 0.0120
2025-08-20 21:00: 0.0115
2025-08-21 05:00: 0.9885
2025-08-21 13:00: 0.9890
2025-08-21 21:00: 0.9895
2025-08-22 05:00: 0.0110
2025-08-22 13:00: 0.0110
2025-08-22 21:00: 0.9895
2025-08-23 05:00: 0.9895
2025-08-23 13:00: 0.0110
2025-08-23 21:00: 0.0115
2025-08-24 05:00: 0.9890
2025-08-24 13:00: 0.9885
2025-08-24 21:00: 0.9885
2025-08-25 05:00: 0.0115
2025-08-25 13:00: 0.9890
2025-08-25 21:00: 0.9890
2025-08-26 04:00: 0.9890
2025-08-26 12:00: 0.9890
2025-08-26 20:00: 0.0110
2025-08-27 04:00: 0.0110
2025-08-27 12:00: 0.9890
2025-08-27 20:00: 0.0100
2025-08-28 04:00: 0.0100
2025-08-28 12:00: 0.9900
2025-08-28 20:00: 0.9900
2025-08-29 04:00: 0.9900
2025-08-29 12:00: 0.0100
2025-08-29 20:00: 0.9905
2025-08-30 04:00: 0.0075
2025-08-30 12:00: 0.0065
2025-08-30 20:00: 0.9920
2025-08-31 04:00: 0.0065
2025-08-31 12:00: 0.9950
2025-08-31 20:00: 0.9950
2025-09-01 04:00: 0.0050
2025-09-01 12:00: 0.9955
2025-09-01 20:00: 0.0045
2025-09-02 04:00: 0.9955
2025-09-02 12:00: 0.0045
2025-09-02 20:00: 0.9950
2025-09-03 04:00: 0.0050
2025-09-03 12:00: 0.0055
2025-09-03 20:00: 0.0055
2025-09-04 04:00: 0.0055
2025-09-04 12:00: 0.9945
Trade Summary: No trades available

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 529299
Question: Will Frances Black win the Irish Presidential Election?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 431228.170716
Price History:
2025-09-05 00:00: 0.0055
2025-09-05 08:00: 0.9945
2025-09-05 16:00: 0.9945
2025-09-06 00:00: 0.9945
2025-09-06 08:00: 0.9945
2025-09-06 16:00: 0.0055
2025-09-07 00:00: 0.9945
2025-09-07 08:00: 0.0055
2025-09-07 16:00: 0.0050
2025-09-08 00:00: 0.9950
2025-09-08 08:00: 0.0050
2025-09-08 16:00: 0.9960
2025-09-09 00:00: 0.0040
2025-09-09 08:00: 0.9960
2025-09-09 16:00: 0.0045
2025-09-10 00:00: 0.0045
2025-09-10 08:00: 0.0045
2025-09-10 16:00: 0.0025
2025-09-11 00:00: 0.0025
2025-09-11 08:00: 0.9975
2025-09-11 16:00: 0.0025
2025-09-12 00:00: 0.0025
2025-09-12 08:00: 0.9975
2025-09-12 16:00: 0.9975
2025-09-13 00:00: 0.9975
2025-09-13 08:00: 0.0025
2025-09-13 16:00: 0.0025
2025-09-14 00:00: 0.0025
2025-09-14 08:00: 0.0025
2025-09-14 16:00: 0.0025
2025-09-15 00:00: 0.0025
2025-09-15 08:00: 0.0025
2025-09-15 16:00: 0.0025
2025-09-16 00:00: 0.9975
2025-09-16 08:00: 0.0025
2025-09-16 16:00: 0.0025
2025-09-17 00:00: 0.9975
2025-09-17 08:00: 0.0025
2025-09-17 17:00: 0.9975
2025-09-18 01:00: 0.0025
2025-09-18 09:00: 0.0025
2025-09-18 17:00: 0.0025
2025-09-19 01:00: 0.9975
2025-09-19 09:00: 0.0025
2025-09-19 17:00: 0.9975
2025-09-20 01:00: 0.9975
2025-09-20 09:00: 0.0025
2025-09-20 17:00: 0.0025
2025-09-21 01:00: 0.0025
2025-09-21 09:00: 0.9975
Trade Summary: No trades available

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 529299
Question: Will Frances Black win the Irish Presidential Election?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 431228.170716
Price History:
2025-09-21 21:00: 0.0015
2025-09-22 05:00: 0.0015
2025-09-22 13:00: 0.0015
2025-09-22 21:00: 0.0015
2025-09-23 05:00: 0.0015
2025-09-23 13:00: 0.0005
2025-09-23 21:00: 0.0005
2025-09-24 05:00: 0.0005
2025-09-24 13:00: 0.0005
2025-09-24 21:00: 0.0005
2025-09-25 05:00: 0.0005
2025-09-25 13:00: 0.9995
2025-09-25 21:00: 0.0005
2025-09-26 05:00: 0.9995
2025-09-26 13:00: 0.9995
2025-09-26 21:00: 0.9995
2025-09-27 05:00: 0.9995
2025-09-27 13:00: 0.9995
2025-09-27 21:00: 0.9995
2025-09-28 05:00: 0.0005
2025-09-28 13:00: 0.0005
2025-09-28 21:00: 0.9995
2025-09-29 05:00: 0.9995
2025-09-29 13:00: 0.9995
2025-09-29 21:00: 0.0005
2025-09-30 05:00: 0.0005
2025-09-30 13:00: 0.0005
2025-09-30 21:00: 0.9995
2025-10-01 05:00: 0.0005
2025-10-01 13:00: 0.0005
2025-10-01 21:00: 0.0005
2025-10-02 05:00: 0.0005
2025-10-02 13:00: 0.0005
2025-10-02 21:00: 0.0005
2025-10-03 05:00: 0.0005
2025-10-03 13:00: 0.0005
2025-10-03 21:00: 0.0005
2025-10-04 05:00: 0.0005
2025-10-04 13:00: 0.0005
2025-10-04 21:00: 0.0005
2025-10-05 05:00: 0.0005
2025-10-05 13:00: 0.0005
2025-10-05 21:00: 0.0005
2025-10-06 05:00: 0.0005
2025-10-06 13:00: 0.9995
2025-10-06 21:00: 0.0005
2025-10-07 05:00: 0.0005
2025-10-07 13:00: 0.0005
2025-10-07 21:00: 0.0005
2025-10-08 05:00: 0.9995
Trade Summary: No trades available

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 529299
Question: Will Frances Black win the Irish Presidential Election?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 431228.170716
Price History:
2025-10-08 17:00: 0.0005
2025-10-09 01:00: 0.0005
2025-10-09 09:00: 0.0005
2025-10-09 17:00: 0.9995
2025-10-10 01:00: 0.0005
2025-10-10 09:00: 0.9995
2025-10-10 17:00: 0.9995
2025-10-11 01:00: 0.0005
2025-10-11 09:00: 0.9995
2025-10-11 17:00: 0.0005
2025-10-12 01:00: 0.9995
2025-10-12 09:00: 0.0005
2025-10-12 17:00: 0.0005
2025-10-13 01:00: 0.9995
2025-10-13 09:00: 0.0005
2025-10-13 17:00: 0.0005
2025-10-14 01:00: 0.0005
2025-10-14 09:00: 0.0005
2025-10-14 17:00: 0.9995
2025-10-15 01:00: 0.0005
2025-10-15 09:00: 0.0005
2025-10-15 17:00: 0.9995
2025-10-16 01:00: 0.0005
2025-10-16 09:00: 0.9995
2025-10-16 17:00: 0.0005
2025-10-17 01:00: 0.9995
2025-10-17 09:00: 0.0005
2025-10-17 17:00: 0.9995
2025-10-18 01:00: 0.9995
2025-10-18 09:00: 0.0005
2025-10-18 17:00: 0.0005
2025-10-19 01:00: 0.0005
2025-10-19 09:00: 0.9995
2025-10-19 17:00: 0.9995
2025-10-20 01:00: 0.0005
2025-10-20 09:00: 0.9995
2025-10-20 17:00: 0.9995
2025-10-21 01:00: 0.9995
2025-10-21 09:00: 0.9995
2025-10-21 17:00: 0.9995
2025-10-22 01:00: 0.0005
2025-10-22 09:00: 0.0005
2025-10-22 17:00: 0.0005
2025-10-23 01:00: 0.0005
2025-10-23 09:00: 0.0005
2025-10-23 17:00: 0.0005
2025-10-24 01:00: 0.0005
2025-10-24 09:00: 0.0005
2025-10-24 17:00: 0.0005
2025-10-25 01:00: 0.0005
Trade Summary: No trades available

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 529299
Question: Will Frances Black win the Irish Presidential Election?
Volume: 431228.170716
Price History:
2025-03-20 17:00: 0.1750
2025-03-21 06:00: 0.1700
2025-03-21 19:00: 0.1850
2025-03-22 08:00: 0.0850
2025-03-22 21:00: 0.0850
2025-03-23 10:00: 0.0800
2025-03-23 23:00: 0.0850
2025-03-24 12:00: 0.0850
2025-03-25 01:00: 0.0850
2025-03-25 14:00: 0.0850
2025-03-26 03:00: 0.0900
2025-03-26 16:00: 0.0900
2025-03-27 05:00: 0.0900
2025-03-27 18:00: 0.0900
2025-03-28 07:00: 0.0900
2025-03-28 20:00: 0.0900
2025-03-29 09:00: 0.0900
2025-03-29 22:00: 0.0950
2025-03-30 11:00: 0.0950
2025-03-31 00:00: 0.0950
2025-03-31 13:00: 0.0950
2025-04-01 02:00: 0.0950
2025-04-01 15:00: 0.0950
2025-04-02 04:00: 0.0950
2025-04-02 17:00: 0.0950
2025-04-03 06:00: 0.0950
2025-04-03 19:00: 0.0950
2025-04-04 08:00: 0.0950
2025-04-04 21:00: 0.0950
2025-04-05 10:00: 0.0950
Trade Summary: No trades available
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 529299
Question: Will Frances Black win the Irish Presidential Election?
Volume: 431228.170716
Price History:
2025-04-06 13:00: 0.0950
2025-04-07 02:00: 0.0950
2025-04-07 15:00: 0.1050
2025-04-08 04:00: 0.1050
2025-04-08 17:00: 0.1050
2025-04-09 06:00: 0.1050
2025-04-09 19:00: 0.1050
2025-04-10 08:00: 0.1050
2025-04-10 21:00: 0.1050
2025-04-11 10:00: 0.1050
2025-04-11 23:00: 0.1050
2025-04-12 12:00: 0.1050
2025-04-13 01:00: 0.1050
2025-04-13 14:00: 0.1050
2025-04-14 03:00: 0.1050
2025-04-14 16:00: 0.1050
2025-04-15 05:00: 0.1050
2025-04-15 18:00: 0.1050
2025-04-16 07:00: 0.1050
2025-04-16 20:00: 0.1050
2025-04-17 09:00: 0.1050
2025-04-17 22:00: 0.1050
2025-04-18 11:00: 0.1050
2025-04-19 00:00: 0.1050
2025-04-19 13:00: 0.1050
2025-04-20 02:00: 0.1050
2025-04-20 15:00: 0.1050
2025-04-21 04:00: 0.1050
2025-04-21 17:00: 0.1050
2025-04-22 06:00: 0.1050
Trade Summary: No trades available
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 529299
Question: Will Frances Black win the Irish Presidential Election?
Volume: 431228.170716
Price History:
2025-04-23 09:00: 0.1000
2025-04-23 22:00: 0.1000
2025-04-24 11:00: 0.1000
2025-04-25 00:00: 0.1000
2025-04-25 13:00: 0.1000
2025-04-26 02:00: 0.1000
2025-04-26 15:00: 0.1000
2025-04-27 04:00: 0.1000
2025-04-27 17:00: 0.1000
2025-04-28 06:00: 0.1000
2025-04-28 19:00: 0.1000
2025-04-29 08:00: 0.1000
2025-04-29 21:00: 0.1000
2025-04-30 10:00: 0.1000
2025-04-30 23:00: 0.1000
2025-05-01 12:00: 0.1000
2025-05-02 01:00: 0.1000
2025-05-02 14:00: 0.1000
2025-05-03 03:00: 0.1000
2025-05-03 16:00: 0.1000
2025-05-04 05:00: 0.1000
2025-05-04 18:00: 0.1000
2025-05-05 07:00: 0.1000
2025-05-05 20:00: 0.1000
2025-05-06 09:00: 0.1000
2025-05-06 22:00: 0.1050
2025-05-07 11:00: 0.1050
2025-05-08 00:00: 0.1050
2025-05-08 13:00: 0.1100
2025-05-09 02:00: 0.1100
Trade Summary: No trades available
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 529299
Question: Will Frances Black win the Irish Presidential Election?
Volume: 431228.170716
Price History:
2025-05-10 05:00: 0.1750
2025-05-10 18:00: 0.1750
2025-05-11 07:00: 0.1600
2025-05-11 20:00: 0.1600
2025-05-12 09:00: 0.1650
2025-05-12 22:00: 0.1650
2025-05-13 11:00: 0.1650
2025-05-14 00:00: 0.1750
2025-05-14 13:00: 0.1750
2025-05-15 02:00: 0.1700
2025-05-15 15:00: 0.0450
2025-05-16 04:00: 0.1200
2025-05-16 17:00: 0.1200
2025-05-17 06:00: 0.1500
2025-05-17 19:00: 0.1650
2025-05-18 08:00: 0.1650
2025-05-18 21:00: 0.1650
2025-05-19 10:00: 0.1750
2025-05-19 23:00: 0.1600
2025-05-20 12:00: 0.1600
2025-05-21 01:00: 0.1550
2025-05-21 14:00: 0.1550
2025-05-22 03:00: 0.1550
2025-05-22 16:00: 0.1550
2025-05-23 05:00: 0.1550
2025-05-23 18:00: 0.1550
2025-05-24 07:00: 0.1550
2025-05-24 20:00: 0.1550
2025-05-25 09:00: 0.1550
2025-05-25 22:00: 0.1550
Trade Summary: No trades available
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 529299
Question: Will Frances Black win the Irish Presidential Election?
Volume: 431228.170716
Price History:
2025-05-27 01:00: 0.1550
2025-05-27 14:00: 0.1550
2025-05-28 03:00: 0.1550
2025-05-28 16:00: 0.1550
2025-05-29 05:00: 0.1500
2025-05-29 18:00: 0.1500
2025-05-30 07:00: 0.1550
2025-05-30 20:00: 0.1550
2025-05-31 09:00: 0.1550
2025-05-31 22:00: 0.1150
2025-06-01 11:00: 0.1150
2025-06-02 00:00: 0.0355
2025-06-02 13:00: 0.0310
2025-06-03 02:00: 0.0345
2025-06-03 15:00: 0.0425
2025-06-04 04:00: 0.0535
2025-06-04 17:00: 0.0520
2025-06-05 06:00: 0.0495
2025-06-05 19:00: 0.0505
2025-06-06 08:00: 0.0500
2025-06-06 21:00: 0.1080
2025-06-07 10:00: 0.1060
2025-06-07 23:00: 0.1025
2025-06-08 12:00: 0.1045
2025-06-09 01:00: 0.1035
2025-06-09 14:00: 0.1130
2025-06-10 03:00: 0.1180
2025-06-10 16:00: 0.1180
2025-06-11 05:00: 0.1180
2025-06-11 18:00: 0.1180
Trade Summary: No trades available
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 529299
Question: Will Frances Black win the Irish Presidential Election?
Volume: 431228.170716
Price History:
2025-06-12 21:00: 0.1255
2025-06-13 11:00: 0.1215
2025-06-14 00:00: 0.1210
2025-06-14 13:00: 0.1190
2025-06-15 02:00: 0.1205
2025-06-15 15:00: 0.1305
2025-06-16 04:00: 0.0315
2025-06-16 17:00: 0.0200
2025-06-17 06:00: 0.0200
2025-06-17 19:00: 0.0195
2025-06-18 08:00: 0.0205
2025-06-18 21:00: 0.0175
2025-06-19 10:00: 0.0175
2025-06-19 23:00: 0.0175
2025-06-20 12:00: 0.0175
2025-06-21 01:00: 0.0175
2025-06-21 14:00: 0.0175
2025-06-22 03:00: 0.0235
2025-06-22 16:00: 0.0425
2025-06-23 05:00: 0.0580
2025-06-23 18:00: 0.0440
2025-06-24 07:00: 0.0575
2025-06-24 20:00: 0.0570
2025-06-25 09:00: 0.0585
2025-06-25 22:00: 0.0585
2025-06-26 11:00: 0.0585
2025-06-27 00:00: 0.0585
2025-06-27 13:00: 0.0585
2025-06-28 02:00: 0.0585
2025-06-28 15:00: 0.0585
Trade Summary: No trades available
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 529299
Question: Will Frances Black win the Irish Presidential Election?
Volume: 431228.170716
Price History:
2025-06-29 18:00: 0.0585
2025-06-30 07:00: 0.0585
2025-06-30 20:00: 0.0585
2025-07-01 09:00: 0.0585
2025-07-01 22:00: 0.0585
2025-07-02 11:00: 0.0585
2025-07-03 00:00: 0.0585
2025-07-03 13:00: 0.0645
2025-07-04 02:00: 0.0650
2025-07-04 15:00: 0.0640
2025-07-05 04:00: 0.0635
2025-07-05 17:00: 0.0635
2025-07-06 06:00: 0.0615
2025-07-06 19:00: 0.0625
2025-07-07 08:00: 0.0620
2025-07-07 21:00: 0.0610
2025-07-08 10:00: 0.0615
2025-07-08 23:00: 0.0615
2025-07-09 12:00: 0.0605
2025-07-10 01:00: 0.0510
2025-07-10 14:00: 0.0635
2025-07-11 03:00: 0.0650
2025-07-11 16:00: 0.0650
2025-07-12 05:00: 0.0645
2025-07-12 18:00: 0.0645
2025-07-13 07:00: 0.0650
2025-07-13 20:00: 0.0645
2025-07-14 09:00: 0.0595
2025-07-14 22:00: 0.0585
2025-07-15 11:00: 0.0565
Trade Summary: No trades available
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 529299
Question: Will Frances Black win the Irish Presidential Election?
Volume: 431228.170716
Price History:
2025-07-16 14:00: 0.0505
2025-07-17 03:00: 0.0300
2025-07-17 16:00: 0.0335
2025-07-18 05:00: 0.0305
2025-07-18 18:00: 0.0325
2025-07-19 07:00: 0.0375
2025-07-19 20:00: 0.0400
2025-07-20 09:00: 0.0405
2025-07-20 22:00: 0.0405
2025-07-21 11:00: 0.0405
2025-07-22 00:00: 0.0395
2025-07-22 13:00: 0.0345
2025-07-23 01:00: 0.0355
2025-07-23 14:00: 0.0385
2025-07-24 03:00: 0.0385
2025-07-24 16:00: 0.0395
2025-07-25 05:00: 0.0380
2025-07-25 18:00: 0.0370
2025-07-26 07:00: 0.0375
2025-07-26 20:00: 0.0380
2025-07-27 09:00: 0.0380
2025-07-27 22:00: 0.0385
2025-07-28 11:00: 0.0385
2025-07-29 00:00: 0.0380
2025-07-29 13:00: 0.0380
2025-07-30 02:00: 0.0380
2025-07-30 15:00: 0.0370
2025-07-31 04:00: 0.0340
2025-07-31 17:00: 0.0335
2025-08-01 06:00: 0.0330
Trade Summary: No trades available
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 529299
Question: Will Frances Black win the Irish Presidential Election?
Volume: 431228.170716
Price History:
2025-08-02 09:00: 0.0255
2025-08-02 22:00: 0.0255
2025-08-03 11:00: 0.0235
2025-08-04 00:00: 0.0255
2025-08-04 13:00: 0.0255
2025-08-05 02:00: 0.0255
2025-08-05 15:00: 0.0245
2025-08-06 04:00: 0.0245
2025-08-06 17:00: 0.9755
2025-08-07 06:00: 0.0245
2025-08-07 19:00: 0.9765
2025-08-08 08:00: 0.9775
2025-08-08 21:00: 0.9775
2025-08-09 10:00: 0.0215
2025-08-09 23:00: 0.0225
2025-08-10 12:00: 0.0225
2025-08-11 01:00: 0.0215
2025-08-11 14:00: 0.9785
2025-08-12 03:00: 0.0210
2025-08-12 16:00: 0.0215
2025-08-13 05:00: 0.0215
2025-08-13 18:00: 0.0215
2025-08-14 07:00: 0.0210
2025-08-14 20:00: 0.0210
2025-08-15 09:00: 0.0210
2025-08-15 22:00: 0.9790
2025-08-16 11:00: 0.9840
2025-08-17 00:00: 0.9855
2025-08-17 13:00: 0.9865
2025-08-18 02:00: 0.9865
Trade Summary: No trades available
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 529299
Question: Will Frances Black win the Irish Presidential Election?
Volume: 431228.170716
Price History:
2025-08-19 05:00: 0.9895
2025-08-19 18:00: 0.0115
2025-08-20 07:00: 0.0115
2025-08-20 20:00: 0.9885
2025-08-21 09:00: 0.0125
2025-08-21 22:00: 0.9890
2025-08-22 11:00: 0.0110
2025-08-23 00:00: 0.9895
2025-08-23 13:00: 0.0110
2025-08-24 02:00: 0.9885
2025-08-24 15:00: 0.0115
2025-08-25 04:00: 0.9885
2025-08-25 17:00: 0.9890
2025-08-26 05:00: 0.0110
2025-08-26 18:00: 0.9890
2025-08-27 07:00: 0.9890
2025-08-27 20:00: 0.0100
2025-08-28 09:00: 0.9900
2025-08-28 22:00: 0.9900
2025-08-29 11:00: 0.0100
2025-08-30 00:00: 0.0095
2025-08-30 13:00: 0.0065
2025-08-31 02:00: 0.9940
2025-08-31 15:00: 0.9950
2025-09-01 04:00: 0.0050
2025-09-01 17:00: 0.9955
2025-09-02 06:00: 0.9955
2025-09-02 19:00: 0.0045
2025-09-03 08:00: 0.0050
2025-09-03 21:00: 0.0055
Trade Summary: No trades available
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 529299
Question: Will Frances Black win the Irish Presidential Election?
Volume: 431228.170716
Price History:
2025-09-05 00:00: 0.0055
2025-09-05 13:00: 0.9945
2025-09-06 02:00: 0.9945
2025-09-06 15:00: 0.9945
2025-09-07 04:00: 0.0055
2025-09-07 17:00: 0.0050
2025-09-08 06:00: 0.9950
2025-09-08 19:00: 0.0040
2025-09-09 08:00: 0.9960
2025-09-09 21:00: 0.9955
2025-09-10 10:00: 0.9975
2025-09-10 23:00: 0.0025
2025-09-11 12:00: 0.0025
2025-09-12 01:00: 0.0025
2025-09-12 14:00: 0.9975
2025-09-13 03:00: 0.9975
2025-09-13 16:00: 0.0025
2025-09-14 05:00: 0.0025
2025-09-14 18:00: 0.0025
2025-09-15 07:00: 0.0025
2025-09-15 20:00: 0.0025
2025-09-16 09:00: 0.0025
2025-09-16 22:00: 0.9975
2025-09-17 11:00: 0.0025
2025-09-18 01:00: 0.0025
2025-09-18 14:00: 0.0025
2025-09-19 03:00: 0.0025
2025-09-19 16:00: 0.9975
2025-09-20 05:00: 0.0025
2025-09-20 18:00: 0.0025
Trade Summary: No trades available
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 529299
Question: Will Frances Black win the Irish Presidential Election?
Volume: 431228.170716
Price History:
2025-09-21 21:00: 0.0015
2025-09-22 10:00: 0.0015
2025-09-22 23:00: 0.0015
2025-09-23 12:00: 0.9995
2025-09-24 01:00: 0.9995
2025-09-24 14:00: 0.0005
2025-09-25 03:00: 0.9995
2025-09-25 16:00: 0.0005
2025-09-26 05:00: 0.9995
2025-09-26 18:00: 0.0005
2025-09-27 07:00: 0.9995
2025-09-27 20:00: 0.0005
2025-09-28 09:00: 0.9995
2025-09-28 22:00: 0.9995
2025-09-29 11:00: 0.9995
2025-09-30 00:00: 0.0005
2025-09-30 13:00: 0.0005
2025-10-01 02:00: 0.0005
2025-10-01 15:00: 0.0005
2025-10-02 04:00: 0.0005
2025-10-02 17:00: 0.0005
2025-10-03 06:00: 0.9995
2025-10-03 19:00: 0.0005
2025-10-04 08:00: 0.0005
2025-10-04 21:00: 0.0005
2025-10-05 10:00: 0.0005
2025-10-05 23:00: 0.0005
2025-10-06 12:00: 0.0005
2025-10-07 01:00: 0.0005
2025-10-07 14:00: 0.0005
Trade Summary: No trades available
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 529299
Question: Will Frances Black win the Irish Presidential Election?
Volume: 431228.170716
Price History:
2025-10-08 17:00: 0.0005
2025-10-09 06:00: 0.0005
2025-10-09 19:00: 0.0005
2025-10-10 08:00: 0.0005
2025-10-10 21:00: 0.0005
2025-10-11 10:00: 0.0005
2025-10-11 23:00: 0.0005
2025-10-12 12:00: 0.9995
2025-10-13 01:00: 0.9995
2025-10-13 14:00: 0.0005
2025-10-14 03:00: 0.0005
2025-10-14 16:00: 0.9995
2025-10-15 05:00: 0.0005
2025-10-15 18:00: 0.9995
2025-10-16 07:00: 0.9995
2025-10-16 20:00: 0.0005
2025-10-17 09:00: 0.0005
2025-10-17 22:00: 0.0005
2025-10-18 11:00: 0.0005
2025-10-19 00:00: 0.0005
2025-10-19 13:00: 0.9995
2025-10-20 02:00: 0.9995
2025-10-20 15:00: 0.0005
2025-10-21 04:00: 0.0005
2025-10-21 17:00: 0.9995
2025-10-22 06:00: 0.0005
2025-10-22 19:00: 0.0005
2025-10-23 08:00: 0.0005
2025-10-23 21:00: 0.0005
2025-10-24 10:00: 0.0005
Trade Summary: No trades available
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 529281
Question: Will Bertie Ahern win the Irish Presidential Election?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 422031.896963
Price History:
2025-03-20 17:00: 0.1000
2025-03-21 01:00: 0.0950
2025-03-21 09:00: 0.1600
2025-03-21 17:00: 0.1700
2025-03-22 01:00: 0.1600
2025-03-22 09:00: 0.1350
2025-03-22 17:00: 0.1300
2025-03-23 01:00: 0.1400
2025-03-23 09:00: 0.2550
2025-03-23 17:00: 0.1850
2025-03-24 01:00: 0.1950
2025-03-24 09:00: 0.1850
2025-03-24 17:00: 0.1600
2025-03-25 01:00: 0.1600
2025-03-25 09:00: 0.1550
2025-03-25 17:00: 0.1550
2025-03-26 01:00: 0.1600
2025-03-26 09:00: 0.1450
2025-03-26 17:00: 0.1150
2025-03-27 01:00: 0.1250
2025-03-27 09:00: 0.1250
2025-03-27 17:00: 0.1250
2025-03-28 01:00: 0.1250
2025-03-28 09:00: 0.1250
2025-03-28 17:00: 0.1250
2025-03-29 01:00: 0.1250
2025-03-29 09:00: 0.1250
2025-03-29 17:00: 0.1250
2025-03-30 01:00: 0.1250
2025-03-30 09:00: 0.1250
2025-03-30 17:00: 0.1250
2025-03-31 01:00: 0.1250
2025-03-31 09:00: 0.1250
2025-03-31 17:00: 0.1250
2025-04-01 01:00: 0.1250
2025-04-01 09:00: 0.1150
2025-04-01 17:00: 0.1200
2025-04-02 01:00: 0.1200
2025-04-02 09:00: 0.1150
2025-04-02 17:00: 0.1150
2025-04-03 01:00: 0.1150
2025-04-03 09:00: 0.1150
2025-04-03 17:00: 0.1150
2025-04-04 01:00: 0.1150
2025-04-04 09:00: 0.1150
2025-04-04 17:00: 0.1150
2025-04-05 01:00: 0.1150
2025-04-05 09:00: 0.1150
2025-04-05 17:00: 0.1150
2025-04-06 01:00: 0.1150
Trade Summary: No trades available

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 529281
Question: Will Bertie Ahern win the Irish Presidential Election?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 422031.896963
Price History:
2025-04-06 13:00: 0.1150
2025-04-06 21:00: 0.1150
2025-04-07 05:00: 0.1150
2025-04-07 13:00: 0.1150
2025-04-07 21:00: 0.1150
2025-04-08 05:00: 0.1150
2025-04-08 13:00: 0.1150
2025-04-08 21:00: 0.1150
2025-04-09 05:00: 0.1150
2025-04-09 13:00: 0.1150
2025-04-09 21:00: 0.1150
2025-04-10 05:00: 0.1150
2025-04-10 13:00: 0.1150
2025-04-10 21:00: 0.1150
2025-04-11 05:00: 0.1150
2025-04-11 13:00: 0.1150
2025-04-11 21:00: 0.1150
2025-04-12 05:00: 0.1150
2025-04-12 13:00: 0.1150
2025-04-12 21:00: 0.1150
2025-04-13 05:00: 0.1150
2025-04-13 13:00: 0.1150
2025-04-13 21:00: 0.1150
2025-04-14 05:00: 0.1150
2025-04-14 13:00: 0.1150
2025-04-14 21:00: 0.1150
2025-04-15 05:00: 0.1150
2025-04-15 13:00: 0.1150
2025-04-15 21:00: 0.1150
2025-04-16 05:00: 0.1150
2025-04-16 13:00: 0.1150
2025-04-16 21:00: 0.1150
2025-04-17 05:00: 0.1150
2025-04-17 13:00: 0.1150
2025-04-17 21:00: 0.1150
2025-04-18 05:00: 0.1150
2025-04-18 13:00: 0.1150
2025-04-18 21:00: 0.1150
2025-04-19 05:00: 0.1150
2025-04-19 13:00: 0.1150
2025-04-19 21:00: 0.1150
2025-04-20 05:00: 0.1150
2025-04-20 13:00: 0.1150
2025-04-20 21:00: 0.1150
2025-04-21 05:00: 0.1150
2025-04-21 13:00: 0.1150
2025-04-21 21:00: 0.1150
2025-04-22 05:00: 0.1150
2025-04-22 13:00: 0.1150
2025-04-22 21:00: 0.1150
Trade Summary: No trades available

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 529281
Question: Will Bertie Ahern win the Irish Presidential Election?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 422031.896963
Price History:
2025-04-23 09:00: 0.1150
2025-04-23 17:00: 0.1150
2025-04-24 01:00: 0.1150
2025-04-24 09:00: 0.1150
2025-04-24 17:00: 0.1150
2025-04-25 01:00: 0.1150
2025-04-25 09:00: 0.1150
2025-04-25 17:00: 0.1150
2025-04-26 01:00: 0.1150
2025-04-26 09:00: 0.0350
2025-04-26 17:00: 0.0325
2025-04-27 01:00: 0.0305
2025-04-27 09:00: 0.0325
2025-04-27 17:00: 0.0305
2025-04-28 01:00: 0.0240
2025-04-28 09:00: 0.0305
2025-04-28 17:00: 0.0270
2025-04-29 01:00: 0.0285
2025-04-29 09:00: 0.0220
2025-04-29 17:00: 0.0200
2025-04-30 01:00: 0.0185
2025-04-30 09:00: 0.0180
2025-04-30 17:00: 0.0180
2025-05-01 01:00: 0.0180
2025-05-01 09:00: 0.0185
2025-05-01 17:00: 0.0230
2025-05-02 01:00: 0.0235
2025-05-02 09:00: 0.0265
2025-05-02 17:00: 0.0265
2025-05-03 01:00: 0.0270
2025-05-03 09:00: 0.0265
2025-05-03 17:00: 0.0270
2025-05-04 01:00: 0.0275
2025-05-04 09:00: 0.0270
2025-05-04 17:00: 0.0275
2025-05-05 01:00: 0.0270
2025-05-05 09:00: 0.0285
2025-05-05 17:00: 0.0280
2025-05-06 01:00: 0.0285
2025-05-06 09:00: 0.0280
2025-05-06 17:00: 0.0280
2025-05-07 01:00: 0.0280
2025-05-07 09:00: 0.0275
2025-05-07 17:00: 0.0275
2025-05-08 01:00: 0.0280
2025-05-08 09:00: 0.0260
2025-05-08 17:00: 0.0260
2025-05-09 01:00: 0.0285
2025-05-09 09:00: 0.0285
2025-05-09 17:00: 0.0285
Trade Summary: No trades available

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 529281
Question: Will Bertie Ahern win the Irish Presidential Election?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 422031.896963
Price History:
2025-05-10 05:00: 0.0295
2025-05-10 13:00: 0.0300
2025-05-10 21:00: 0.0280
2025-05-11 05:00: 0.0295
2025-05-11 13:00: 0.0305
2025-05-11 21:00: 0.0280
2025-05-12 05:00: 0.0300
2025-05-12 13:00: 0.0295
2025-05-12 21:00: 0.0295
2025-05-13 05:00: 0.0295
2025-05-13 13:00: 0.0275
2025-05-13 21:00: 0.0305
2025-05-14 05:00: 0.0300
2025-05-14 13:00: 0.0300
2025-05-14 21:00: 0.0255
2025-05-15 05:00: 0.0290
2025-05-15 13:00: 0.0305
2025-05-15 21:00: 0.0305
2025-05-16 05:00: 0.0315
2025-05-16 13:00: 0.0315
2025-05-16 21:00: 0.0315
2025-05-17 05:00: 0.0325
2025-05-17 13:00: 0.0320
2025-05-17 21:00: 0.0325
2025-05-18 05:00: 0.0325
2025-05-18 13:00: 0.0315
2025-05-18 21:00: 0.0305
2025-05-19 05:00: 0.0315
2025-05-19 13:00: 0.0310
2025-05-19 21:00: 0.0315
2025-05-20 05:00: 0.0305
2025-05-20 13:00: 0.0295
2025-05-20 21:00: 0.0325
2025-05-21 05:00: 0.0310
2025-05-21 13:00: 0.0335
2025-05-21 21:00: 0.0315
2025-05-22 05:00: 0.0320
2025-05-22 13:00: 0.0320
2025-05-22 21:00: 0.0315
2025-05-23 05:00: 0.0275
2025-05-23 13:00: 0.0275
2025-05-23 21:00: 0.0265
2025-05-24 05:00: 0.0265
2025-05-24 13:00: 0.0275
2025-05-24 21:00: 0.0245
2025-05-25 05:00: 0.0235
2025-05-25 13:00: 0.0200
2025-05-25 21:00: 0.0190
2025-05-26 05:00: 0.0190
2025-05-26 13:00: 0.0190
Trade Summary: No trades available

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 529281
Question: Will Bertie Ahern win the Irish Presidential Election?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 422031.896963
Price History:
2025-05-27 01:00: 0.0185
2025-05-27 09:00: 0.0235
2025-05-27 17:00: 0.0250
2025-05-28 01:00: 0.0220
2025-05-28 09:00: 0.0245
2025-05-28 17:00: 0.0240
2025-05-29 01:00: 0.0205
2025-05-29 09:00: 0.0210
2025-05-29 17:00: 0.0220
2025-05-30 01:00: 0.0235
2025-05-30 09:00: 0.0200
2025-05-30 17:00: 0.0220
2025-05-31 01:00: 0.0225
2025-05-31 09:00: 0.0245
2025-05-31 17:00: 0.0190
2025-06-01 01:00: 0.0185
2025-06-01 09:00: 0.0185
2025-06-01 17:00: 0.0185
2025-06-02 01:00: 0.0185
2025-06-02 09:00: 0.0185
2025-06-02 17:00: 0.0185
2025-06-03 01:00: 0.0145
2025-06-03 09:00: 0.0105
2025-06-03 17:00: 0.0110
2025-06-04 01:00: 0.0110
2025-06-04 09:00: 0.0115
2025-06-04 17:00: 0.0150
2025-06-05 01:00: 0.0135
2025-06-05 09:00: 0.0135
2025-06-05 17:00: 0.0130
2025-06-06 01:00: 0.0130
2025-06-06 09:00: 0.0130
2025-06-06 17:00: 0.0130
2025-06-07 01:00: 0.0130
2025-06-07 09:00: 0.0135
2025-06-07 17:00: 0.0140
2025-06-08 01:00: 0.0125
2025-06-08 09:00: 0.0135
2025-06-08 17:00: 0.0135
2025-06-09 01:00: 0.0140
2025-06-09 09:00: 0.0140
2025-06-09 17:00: 0.0130
2025-06-10 01:00: 0.0130
2025-06-10 09:00: 0.0130
2025-06-10 17:00: 0.0125
2025-06-11 01:00: 0.0140
2025-06-11 09:00: 0.0125
2025-06-11 17:00: 0.0125
2025-06-12 01:00: 0.0125
2025-06-12 09:00: 0.0130
Trade Summary: No trades available

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 529281
Question: Will Bertie Ahern win the Irish Presidential Election?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 422031.896963
Price History:
2025-06-12 21:00: 0.0130
2025-06-13 06:00: 0.0145
2025-06-13 14:00: 0.0140
2025-06-13 22:00: 0.0135
2025-06-14 06:00: 0.0135
2025-06-14 14:00: 0.0140
2025-06-14 22:00: 0.0135
2025-06-15 06:00: 0.0135
2025-06-15 14:00: 0.0135
2025-06-15 22:00: 0.0055
2025-06-16 06:00: 0.0065
2025-06-16 14:00: 0.0145
2025-06-16 22:00: 0.0100
2025-06-17 06:00: 0.0105
2025-06-17 14:00: 0.0105
2025-06-17 22:00: 0.0105
2025-06-18 06:00: 0.0105
2025-06-18 14:00: 0.0160
2025-06-18 22:00: 0.0165
2025-06-19 06:00: 0.0165
2025-06-19 14:00: 0.0180
2025-06-19 22:00: 0.0180
2025-06-20 06:00: 0.0180
2025-06-20 14:00: 0.0175
2025-06-20 22:00: 0.0225
2025-06-21 06:00: 0.0205
2025-06-21 14:00: 0.0210
2025-06-21 22:00: 0.0225
2025-06-22 06:00: 0.0225
2025-06-22 14:00: 0.0230
2025-06-22 22:00: 0.0245
2025-06-23 06:00: 0.0265
2025-06-23 14:00: 0.0240
2025-06-23 22:00: 0.0280
2025-06-24 06:00: 0.1485
2025-06-24 14:00: 0.0930
2025-06-24 22:00: 0.1480
2025-06-25 06:00: 0.1350
2025-06-25 14:00: 0.1455
2025-06-25 22:00: 0.1490
2025-06-26 06:00: 0.1645
2025-06-26 14:00: 0.1460
2025-06-26 22:00: 0.1510
2025-06-27 06:00: 0.1510
2025-06-27 14:00: 0.1515
2025-06-27 22:00: 0.1515
2025-06-28 06:00: 0.1670
2025-06-28 14:00: 0.1505
2025-06-28 22:00: 0.1510
2025-06-29 06:00: 0.1515
Trade Summary: No trades available

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 529281
Question: Will Bertie Ahern win the Irish Presidential Election?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 422031.896963
Price History:
2025-06-29 18:00: 0.0830
2025-06-30 02:00: 0.0865
2025-06-30 10:00: 0.0740
2025-06-30 18:00: 0.0750
2025-07-01 02:00: 0.0900
2025-07-01 10:00: 0.0745
2025-07-01 18:00: 0.0860
2025-07-02 02:00: 0.0730
2025-07-02 10:00: 0.0825
2025-07-02 18:00: 0.0730
2025-07-03 02:00: 0.0730
2025-07-03 10:00: 0.0740
2025-07-03 18:00: 0.0650
2025-07-04 02:00: 0.0710
2025-07-04 10:00: 0.0700
2025-07-04 18:00: 0.0700
2025-07-05 02:00: 0.0705
2025-07-05 10:00: 0.0400
2025-07-05 18:00: 0.0380
2025-07-06 02:00: 0.0400
2025-07-06 10:00: 0.0375
2025-07-06 18:00: 0.0370
2025-07-07 02:00: 0.0345
2025-07-07 10:00: 0.0350
2025-07-07 18:00: 0.0420
2025-07-08 02:00: 0.0415
2025-07-08 10:00: 0.0415
2025-07-08 18:00: 0.0440
2025-07-09 02:00: 0.0455
2025-07-09 10:00: 0.0460
2025-07-09 18:00: 0.0460
2025-07-10 02:00: 0.0470
2025-07-10 10:00: 0.0465
2025-07-10 18:00: 0.0495
2025-07-11 02:00: 0.0430
2025-07-11 10:00: 0.0455
2025-07-11 18:00: 0.0475
2025-07-12 02:00: 0.0480
2025-07-12 10:00: 0.0470
2025-07-12 18:00: 0.0470
2025-07-13 02:00: 0.0480
2025-07-13 10:00: 0.0480
2025-07-13 18:00: 0.0470
2025-07-14 02:00: 0.0480
2025-07-14 10:00: 0.0455
2025-07-14 18:00: 0.0450
2025-07-15 02:00: 0.0460
2025-07-15 10:00: 0.0455
2025-07-15 18:00: 0.0485
2025-07-16 02:00: 0.0500
Trade Summary: No trades available

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 529281
Question: Will Bertie Ahern win the Irish Presidential Election?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 422031.896963
Price History:
2025-07-16 14:00: 0.0690
2025-07-16 22:00: 0.0665
2025-07-17 06:00: 0.0710
2025-07-17 14:00: 0.0610
2025-07-17 22:00: 0.0635
2025-07-18 06:00: 0.0585
2025-07-18 14:00: 0.0615
2025-07-18 22:00: 0.0585
2025-07-19 06:00: 0.0585
2025-07-19 14:00: 0.0590
2025-07-19 22:00: 0.0570
2025-07-20 06:00: 0.0570
2025-07-20 14:00: 0.0490
2025-07-20 22:00: 0.0435
2025-07-21 06:00: 0.0445
2025-07-21 14:00: 0.0455
2025-07-21 22:00: 0.0460
2025-07-22 06:00: 0.0445
2025-07-22 14:00: 0.0450
2025-07-22 22:00: 0.0450
2025-07-23 05:00: 0.0450
2025-07-23 13:00: 0.0465
2025-07-23 21:00: 0.0460
2025-07-24 05:00: 0.0465
2025-07-24 13:00: 0.0450
2025-07-24 21:00: 0.0460
2025-07-25 05:00: 0.0450
2025-07-25 13:00: 0.0450
2025-07-25 21:00: 0.0455
2025-07-26 05:00: 0.0455
2025-07-26 13:00: 0.0450
2025-07-26 21:00: 0.0450
2025-07-27 05:00: 0.0460
2025-07-27 13:00: 0.0455
2025-07-27 21:00: 0.0445
2025-07-28 05:00: 0.0450
2025-07-28 13:00: 0.0445
2025-07-28 21:00: 0.0450
2025-07-29 05:00: 0.0455
2025-07-29 13:00: 0.0445
2025-07-29 21:00: 0.0445
2025-07-30 05:00: 0.0270
2025-07-30 13:00: 0.0305
2025-07-30 21:00: 0.0300
2025-07-31 05:00: 0.0285
2025-07-31 13:00: 0.0285
2025-07-31 21:00: 0.0290
2025-08-01 05:00: 0.0275
2025-08-01 13:00: 0.0260
2025-08-01 21:00: 0.0255
Trade Summary: No trades available

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 529281
Question: Will Bertie Ahern win the Irish Presidential Election?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 422031.896963
Price History:
2025-08-02 09:00: 0.0255
2025-08-02 17:00: 0.0270
2025-08-03 01:00: 0.0320
2025-08-03 09:00: 0.0305
2025-08-03 17:00: 0.0305
2025-08-04 01:00: 0.0305
2025-08-04 09:00: 0.0305
2025-08-04 17:00: 0.0285
2025-08-05 01:00: 0.0290
2025-08-05 09:00: 0.0290
2025-08-05 17:00: 0.0290
2025-08-06 01:00: 0.0560
2025-08-06 09:00: 0.0575
2025-08-06 17:00: 0.0540
2025-08-07 01:00: 0.0470
2025-08-07 09:00: 0.0580
2025-08-07 17:00: 0.0560
2025-08-08 01:00: 0.9440
2025-08-08 09:00: 0.9430
2025-08-08 17:00: 0.9425
2025-08-09 01:00: 0.0575
2025-08-09 09:00: 0.0470
2025-08-09 17:00: 0.9550
2025-08-10 01:00: 0.9560
2025-08-10 09:00: 0.0540
2025-08-10 17:00: 0.0485
2025-08-11 01:00: 0.0490
2025-08-11 09:00: 0.0565
2025-08-11 17:00: 0.0640
2025-08-12 01:00: 0.0560
2025-08-12 09:00: 0.9440
2025-08-12 17:00: 0.9470
2025-08-13 01:00: 0.9455
2025-08-13 09:00: 0.0535
2025-08-13 17:00: 0.9465
2025-08-14 01:00: 0.9500
2025-08-14 09:00: 0.0550
2025-08-14 17:00: 0.9570
2025-08-15 01:00: 0.9550
2025-08-15 09:00: 0.0460
2025-08-15 17:00: 0.9565
2025-08-16 01:00: 0.9575
2025-08-16 09:00: 0.0465
2025-08-16 17:00: 0.0640
2025-08-17 01:00: 0.0605
2025-08-17 09:00: 0.0650
2025-08-17 17:00: 0.0660
2025-08-18 01:00: 0.0660
2025-08-18 09:00: 0.0585
2025-08-18 17:00: 0.9410
Trade Summary: No trades available

Output: Yes