Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 663966
Question: Will Nancy Pelosi announce her retirement by June 30, 2026?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 108604.179074
Price History:
2025-11-04 23:00: 0.1745
2025-11-04 23:00: 0.8255
2025-11-05 00:00: 0.1745
2025-11-05 00:00: 0.8255
2025-11-05 01:00: 0.1315
2025-11-05 01:00: 0.8685
2025-11-05 02:00: 0.1140
2025-11-05 02:00: 0.8860
2025-11-05 03:00: 0.1320
2025-11-05 03:00: 0.8680
Trade Summary: Total trades: 2, Buy volume: 0.00, Sell volume: 323.38, Average price: 0.1675, Price range: 0.1670 - 0.1680

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 663966
Question: Will Nancy Pelosi announce her retirement by June 30, 2026?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 108604.179074
Price History:
2025-11-05 04:00: 0.1115
2025-11-05 04:00: 0.8885
2025-11-05 05:00: 0.1175
2025-11-05 05:00: 0.8825
2025-11-05 06:00: 0.1230
2025-11-05 06:00: 0.8770
2025-11-05 07:00: 0.1410
2025-11-05 07:00: 0.8590
2025-11-05 08:00: 0.1440
2025-11-05 08:00: 0.8560
Trade Summary: Total trades: 3, Buy volume: 839.46, Sell volume: 0.00, Average price: 0.1504, Price range: 0.1334 - 0.1670

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 663966
Question: Will Nancy Pelosi announce her retirement by June 30, 2026?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 108604.179074
Price History:
2025-11-05 09:00: 0.1445
2025-11-05 09:00: 0.8555
2025-11-05 10:00: 0.1440
2025-11-05 10:00: 0.8560
2025-11-05 11:00: 0.1455
2025-11-05 11:00: 0.8545
2025-11-05 12:00: 0.1620
2025-11-05 12:00: 0.8380
2025-11-05 13:00: 0.1630
2025-11-05 13:00: 0.8370
Trade Summary: Total trades: 3, Buy volume: 933.00, Sell volume: 20.00, Average price: 0.3828, Price range: 0.1492 - 0.8350

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 663966
Question: Will Nancy Pelosi announce her retirement by June 30, 2026?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 108604.179074
Price History:
2025-11-05 14:00: 0.1625
2025-11-05 14:00: 0.8375
2025-11-05 15:00: 0.1625
2025-11-05 15:00: 0.8375
2025-11-05 16:00: 0.1640
2025-11-05 16:00: 0.8360
2025-11-05 17:00: 0.1645
2025-11-05 17:00: 0.8355
2025-11-05 18:00: 0.1785
2025-11-05 18:00: 0.8215
Trade Summary: Total trades: 10, Buy volume: 1042.69, Sell volume: 243.33, Average price: 0.3015, Price range: 0.1600 - 0.8400

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 663966
Question: Will Nancy Pelosi announce her retirement by June 30, 2026?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 108604.179074
Price History:
2025-11-05 19:00: 0.1790
2025-11-05 19:00: 0.8210
2025-11-05 20:00: 0.1795
2025-11-05 20:00: 0.8205
2025-11-05 21:00: 0.1795
2025-11-05 21:00: 0.8205
2025-11-05 22:00: 0.1795
2025-11-05 22:00: 0.8205
2025-11-05 23:00: 0.1795
2025-11-05 23:00: 0.8205
Trade Summary: Total trades: 1, Buy volume: 0.00, Sell volume: 100.60, Average price: 0.1730, Price range: 0.1730 - 0.1730

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 663966
Question: Will Nancy Pelosi announce her retirement by June 30, 2026?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 108604.179074
Price History:
2025-11-06 00:00: 0.1810
2025-11-06 00:00: 0.8190
2025-11-06 01:00: 0.2765
2025-11-06 01:00: 0.7235
2025-11-06 02:00: 0.2875
2025-11-06 02:00: 0.7125
2025-11-06 03:00: 0.3025
2025-11-06 03:00: 0.6975
2025-11-06 04:00: 0.3335
2025-11-06 04:00: 0.6665
Trade Summary: Total trades: 7, Buy volume: 1728.96, Sell volume: 10.00, Average price: 0.4151, Price range: 0.1956 - 0.7900

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 663966
Question: Will Nancy Pelosi announce her retirement by June 30, 2026?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 108604.179074
Price History:
2025-11-06 05:00: 0.3965
2025-11-06 05:00: 0.6035
2025-11-06 06:00: 0.4070
2025-11-06 06:00: 0.5930
2025-11-06 07:00: 0.4115
2025-11-06 07:00: 0.5885
2025-11-06 08:00: 0.4240
2025-11-06 08:00: 0.5760
2025-11-06 09:00: 0.4290
2025-11-06 09:00: 0.5710
Trade Summary: Total trades: 2, Buy volume: 0.00, Sell volume: 76.89, Average price: 0.4744, Price range: 0.3989 - 0.5500

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 663966
Question: Will Nancy Pelosi announce her retirement by June 30, 2026?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 108604.179074
Price History:
2025-11-06 07:00: 0.4115
2025-11-06 07:00: 0.5885
2025-11-06 08:00: 0.4240
2025-11-06 08:00: 0.5760
2025-11-06 09:00: 0.4290
2025-11-06 09:00: 0.5710
2025-11-06 10:00: 0.0005
2025-11-06 10:00: 0.9995
2025-11-06 11:00: 0.0005
2025-11-06 11:00: 0.9995
Trade Summary: Total trades: 51, Buy volume: 96073.47, Sell volume: 1727.60, Average price: 0.9141, Price range: 0.0020 - 0.9990

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 663966
Question: Will Nancy Pelosi announce her retirement by June 30, 2026?
Volume: 108604.179074
Price History:
2025-11-03 22:00: 0.3350
2025-11-03 22:00: 0.6650
2025-11-03 23:00: 0.1650
2025-11-03 23:00: 0.8350
2025-11-04 00:00: 0.1600
2025-11-04 00:00: 0.8400
2025-11-04 01:00: 0.0280
2025-11-04 01:00: 0.9720
2025-11-04 02:00: 0.0270
2025-11-04 02:00: 0.9730
Trade Summary: Total trades: 10, Buy volume: 617.14, Sell volume: 0.20, Average price: 0.5013, Price range: 0.0257 - 0.9801
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 663966
Question: Will Nancy Pelosi announce her retirement by June 30, 2026?
Volume: 108604.179074
Price History:
2025-11-04 03:00: 0.0270
2025-11-04 03:00: 0.9730
2025-11-04 04:00: 0.0275
2025-11-04 04:00: 0.9725
2025-11-04 05:00: 0.0300
2025-11-04 05:00: 0.9700
2025-11-04 06:00: 0.0260
2025-11-04 06:00: 0.9740
2025-11-04 07:00: 0.0270
2025-11-04 07:00: 0.9730
Trade Summary: Total trades: 5, Buy volume: 60.47, Sell volume: 0.00, Average price: 0.7886, Price range: 0.0310 - 0.9790
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 663966
Question: Will Nancy Pelosi announce her retirement by June 30, 2026?
Volume: 108604.179074
Price History:
2025-11-04 08:00: 0.0270
2025-11-04 08:00: 0.9730
2025-11-04 09:00: 0.0425
2025-11-04 09:00: 0.9575
2025-11-04 10:00: 0.1585
2025-11-04 10:00: 0.8415
2025-11-04 11:00: 0.1865
2025-11-04 11:00: 0.8135
2025-11-04 12:00: 0.1775
2025-11-04 12:00: 0.8225
Trade Summary: Total trades: 12, Buy volume: 3248.10, Sell volume: 392.21, Average price: 0.4239, Price range: 0.0298 - 0.9680
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 663966
Question: Will Nancy Pelosi announce her retirement by June 30, 2026?
Volume: 108604.179074
Price History:
2025-11-04 13:00: 0.1760
2025-11-04 13:00: 0.8240
2025-11-04 14:00: 0.1755
2025-11-04 14:00: 0.8245
2025-11-04 15:00: 0.1750
2025-11-04 15:00: 0.8250
2025-11-04 16:00: 0.1745
2025-11-04 16:00: 0.8255
2025-11-04 17:00: 0.1745
2025-11-04 17:00: 0.8255
Trade Summary: Total trades: 6, Buy volume: 69.63, Sell volume: 104.00, Average price: 0.5000, Price range: 0.1710 - 0.8291
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 663966
Question: Will Nancy Pelosi announce her retirement by June 30, 2026?
Volume: 108604.179074
Price History:
2025-11-04 18:00: 0.1755
2025-11-04 18:00: 0.8245
2025-11-04 19:00: 0.1755
2025-11-04 19:00: 0.8245
2025-11-04 20:00: 0.1755
2025-11-04 20:00: 0.8245
2025-11-04 21:00: 0.1755
2025-11-04 21:00: 0.8245
2025-11-04 22:00: 0.1755
2025-11-04 22:00: 0.8245
Trade Summary: Total trades: 2, Buy volume: 11.11, Sell volume: 0.00, Average price: 0.1800, Price range: 0.1800 - 0.1800
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 663966
Question: Will Nancy Pelosi announce her retirement by June 30, 2026?
Volume: 108604.179074
Price History:
2025-11-04 23:00: 0.1745
2025-11-04 23:00: 0.8255
2025-11-05 00:00: 0.1745
2025-11-05 00:00: 0.8255
2025-11-05 01:00: 0.1315
2025-11-05 01:00: 0.8685
2025-11-05 02:00: 0.1140
2025-11-05 02:00: 0.8860
2025-11-05 03:00: 0.1320
2025-11-05 03:00: 0.8680
Trade Summary: Total trades: 2, Buy volume: 0.00, Sell volume: 323.38, Average price: 0.1675, Price range: 0.1670 - 0.1680
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 663966
Question: Will Nancy Pelosi announce her retirement by June 30, 2026?
Volume: 108604.179074
Price History:
2025-11-05 04:00: 0.1115
2025-11-05 04:00: 0.8885
2025-11-05 05:00: 0.1175
2025-11-05 05:00: 0.8825
2025-11-05 06:00: 0.1230
2025-11-05 06:00: 0.8770
2025-11-05 07:00: 0.1410
2025-11-05 07:00: 0.8590
2025-11-05 08:00: 0.1440
2025-11-05 08:00: 0.8560
Trade Summary: Total trades: 3, Buy volume: 839.46, Sell volume: 0.00, Average price: 0.1504, Price range: 0.1334 - 0.1670
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 663966
Question: Will Nancy Pelosi announce her retirement by June 30, 2026?
Volume: 108604.179074
Price History:
2025-11-05 09:00: 0.1445
2025-11-05 09:00: 0.8555
2025-11-05 10:00: 0.1440
2025-11-05 10:00: 0.8560
2025-11-05 11:00: 0.1455
2025-11-05 11:00: 0.8545
2025-11-05 12:00: 0.1620
2025-11-05 12:00: 0.8380
2025-11-05 13:00: 0.1630
2025-11-05 13:00: 0.8370
Trade Summary: Total trades: 3, Buy volume: 933.00, Sell volume: 20.00, Average price: 0.3828, Price range: 0.1492 - 0.8350
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 663966
Question: Will Nancy Pelosi announce her retirement by June 30, 2026?
Volume: 108604.179074
Price History:
2025-11-05 14:00: 0.1625
2025-11-05 14:00: 0.8375
2025-11-05 15:00: 0.1625
2025-11-05 15:00: 0.8375
2025-11-05 16:00: 0.1640
2025-11-05 16:00: 0.8360
2025-11-05 17:00: 0.1645
2025-11-05 17:00: 0.8355
2025-11-05 18:00: 0.1785
2025-11-05 18:00: 0.8215
Trade Summary: Total trades: 10, Buy volume: 1042.69, Sell volume: 243.33, Average price: 0.3015, Price range: 0.1600 - 0.8400
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 663966
Question: Will Nancy Pelosi announce her retirement by June 30, 2026?
Volume: 108604.179074
Price History:
2025-11-05 19:00: 0.1790
2025-11-05 19:00: 0.8210
2025-11-05 20:00: 0.1795
2025-11-05 20:00: 0.8205
2025-11-05 21:00: 0.1795
2025-11-05 21:00: 0.8205
2025-11-05 22:00: 0.1795
2025-11-05 22:00: 0.8205
2025-11-05 23:00: 0.1795
2025-11-05 23:00: 0.8205
Trade Summary: Total trades: 1, Buy volume: 0.00, Sell volume: 100.60, Average price: 0.1730, Price range: 0.1730 - 0.1730
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 663966
Question: Will Nancy Pelosi announce her retirement by June 30, 2026?
Volume: 108604.179074
Price History:
2025-11-06 00:00: 0.1810
2025-11-06 00:00: 0.8190
2025-11-06 01:00: 0.2765
2025-11-06 01:00: 0.7235
2025-11-06 02:00: 0.2875
2025-11-06 02:00: 0.7125
2025-11-06 03:00: 0.3025
2025-11-06 03:00: 0.6975
2025-11-06 04:00: 0.3335
2025-11-06 04:00: 0.6665
Trade Summary: Total trades: 7, Buy volume: 1728.96, Sell volume: 10.00, Average price: 0.4151, Price range: 0.1956 - 0.7900
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 663966
Question: Will Nancy Pelosi announce her retirement by June 30, 2026?
Volume: 108604.179074
Price History:
2025-11-06 05:00: 0.3965
2025-11-06 05:00: 0.6035
2025-11-06 06:00: 0.4070
2025-11-06 06:00: 0.5930
2025-11-06 07:00: 0.4115
2025-11-06 07:00: 0.5885
2025-11-06 08:00: 0.4240
2025-11-06 08:00: 0.5760
2025-11-06 09:00: 0.4290
2025-11-06 09:00: 0.5710
Trade Summary: Total trades: 2, Buy volume: 0.00, Sell volume: 76.89, Average price: 0.4744, Price range: 0.3989 - 0.5500
Manipulation Indicators Detected: None

Output: No


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 663966
Question: Will Nancy Pelosi announce her retirement by June 30, 2026?
Volume: 108604.179074
Price History:
2025-11-06 07:00: 0.4115
2025-11-06 07:00: 0.5885
2025-11-06 08:00: 0.4240
2025-11-06 08:00: 0.5760
2025-11-06 09:00: 0.4290
2025-11-06 09:00: 0.5710
2025-11-06 10:00: 0.0005
2025-11-06 10:00: 0.9995
2025-11-06 11:00: 0.0005
2025-11-06 11:00: 0.9995
Trade Summary: Total trades: 51, Buy volume: 96073.47, Sell volume: 1727.60, Average price: 0.9141, Price range: 0.0020 - 0.9990
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike, wash_trading

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 527801
Question: Will Gavin Newsom be the first leader out in 2025?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 552939.072314
Price History:
2025-03-11 18:00: 0.5000
2025-03-12 02:00: 0.0500
2025-03-12 10:00: 0.0430
2025-03-12 18:00: 0.0425
2025-03-13 02:00: 0.0420
2025-03-13 10:00: 0.0415
2025-03-13 18:00: 0.0360
2025-03-14 02:00: 0.0335
2025-03-14 10:00: 0.0315
2025-03-14 18:00: 0.0325
2025-03-15 02:00: 0.0335
2025-03-15 10:00: 0.0330
2025-03-15 18:00: 0.0325
2025-03-16 02:00: 0.0330
2025-03-16 10:00: 0.0330
2025-03-16 18:00: 0.0340
2025-03-17 02:00: 0.0330
2025-03-17 10:00: 0.0320
2025-03-17 18:00: 0.0335
2025-03-18 02:00: 0.0335
2025-03-18 10:00: 0.0335
2025-03-18 18:00: 0.0335
2025-03-19 02:00: 0.0335
2025-03-19 10:00: 0.0330
2025-03-19 18:00: 0.0330
2025-03-20 02:00: 0.0335
2025-03-20 10:00: 0.0200
2025-03-20 18:00: 0.0200
2025-03-21 02:00: 0.0170
2025-03-21 10:00: 0.0190
2025-03-21 18:00: 0.0185
2025-03-22 02:00: 0.0175
2025-03-22 10:00: 0.0180
2025-03-22 18:00: 0.0180
2025-03-23 02:00: 0.0180
2025-03-23 10:00: 0.0210
2025-03-23 18:00: 0.0180
2025-03-24 02:00: 0.0200
2025-03-24 10:00: 0.0200
2025-03-24 18:00: 0.0200
2025-03-25 02:00: 0.0190
2025-03-25 10:00: 0.0155
2025-03-25 18:00: 0.0175
2025-03-26 02:00: 0.0175
2025-03-26 10:00: 0.0145
2025-03-26 18:00: 0.0155
2025-03-27 02:00: 0.0190
2025-03-27 10:00: 0.0180
2025-03-27 18:00: 0.0210
2025-03-28 02:00: 0.0205
Trade Summary: Total trades: 1000000, Buy volume: 68772338.99, Sell volume: 20622642.82, Average price: 0.8267, Price range: 0.0010 - 0.9990

Output: No


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 527801
Question: Will Gavin Newsom be the first leader out in 2025?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 552939.072314
Price History:
2025-03-28 23:00: 0.0165
2025-03-29 07:00: 0.0165
2025-03-29 15:00: 0.0155
2025-03-29 23:00: 0.0155
2025-03-30 07:00: 0.0155
2025-03-30 15:00: 0.0180
2025-03-30 23:00: 0.0190
2025-03-31 07:00: 0.0100
2025-03-31 15:00: 0.0085
2025-03-31 23:00: 0.0085
2025-04-01 07:00: 0.0070
2025-04-01 15:00: 0.0060
2025-04-01 23:00: 0.0105
2025-04-02 07:00: 0.0135
2025-04-02 15:00: 0.0110
2025-04-02 23:00: 0.0105
2025-04-03 07:00: 0.0170
2025-04-03 15:00: 0.0165
2025-04-03 23:00: 0.0160
2025-04-04 07:00: 0.0160
2025-04-04 15:00: 0.0160
2025-04-04 23:00: 0.0160
2025-04-05 07:00: 0.0160
2025-04-05 15:00: 0.0165
2025-04-05 23:00: 0.0165
2025-04-06 07:00: 0.0165
2025-04-06 15:00: 0.0160
2025-04-06 23:00: 0.0160
2025-04-07 07:00: 0.0160
2025-04-07 15:00: 0.0160
2025-04-07 23:00: 0.0160
2025-04-08 07:00: 0.0160
2025-04-08 15:00: 0.0165
2025-04-08 23:00: 0.0155
2025-04-09 07:00: 0.0160
2025-04-09 15:00: 0.0160
2025-04-09 23:00: 0.0155
2025-04-10 07:00: 0.0150
2025-04-10 15:00: 0.0155
2025-04-10 23:00: 0.0150
2025-04-11 07:00: 0.0160
2025-04-11 15:00: 0.0155
2025-04-11 23:00: 0.0150
2025-04-12 07:00: 0.0160
2025-04-12 15:00: 0.0160
2025-04-12 23:00: 0.0155
2025-04-13 07:00: 0.0160
2025-04-13 15:00: 0.0220
2025-04-13 23:00: 0.0220
2025-04-14 07:00: 0.0220
Trade Summary: Total trades: 1000000, Buy volume: 68772338.99, Sell volume: 20622642.82, Average price: 0.8267, Price range: 0.0010 - 0.9990

Output: No


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 527801
Question: Will Gavin Newsom be the first leader out in 2025?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 552939.072314
Price History:
2025-04-15 04:00: 0.0190
2025-04-15 12:00: 0.0255
2025-04-15 20:00: 0.0245
2025-04-16 04:00: 0.0245
2025-04-16 12:00: 0.0225
2025-04-16 20:00: 0.0220
2025-04-17 04:00: 0.0215
2025-04-17 12:00: 0.0215
2025-04-17 20:00: 0.0195
2025-04-18 04:00: 0.0180
2025-04-18 12:00: 0.0180
2025-04-18 20:00: 0.0180
2025-04-19 04:00: 0.0180
2025-04-19 12:00: 0.0185
2025-04-19 20:00: 0.0180
2025-04-20 04:00: 0.0180
2025-04-20 12:00: 0.0175
2025-04-20 20:00: 0.0185
2025-04-21 04:00: 0.0185
2025-04-21 12:00: 0.0190
2025-04-21 20:00: 0.0180
2025-04-22 04:00: 0.0180
2025-04-22 12:00: 0.0180
2025-04-22 20:00: 0.0190
2025-04-23 04:00: 0.0195
2025-04-23 12:00: 0.0220
2025-04-23 20:00: 0.0220
2025-04-24 04:00: 0.0195
2025-04-24 12:00: 0.0195
2025-04-24 20:00: 0.0215
2025-04-25 04:00: 0.0195
2025-04-25 12:00: 0.0190
2025-04-25 20:00: 0.0195
2025-04-26 04:00: 0.0195
2025-04-26 12:00: 0.0190
2025-04-26 20:00: 0.0210
2025-04-27 04:00: 0.0215
2025-04-27 12:00: 0.0220
2025-04-27 20:00: 0.0210
2025-04-28 04:00: 0.0215
2025-04-28 12:00: 0.0220
2025-04-28 20:00: 0.0215
2025-04-29 04:00: 0.0205
2025-04-29 12:00: 0.0205
2025-04-29 20:00: 0.0210
2025-04-30 04:00: 0.0205
2025-04-30 12:00: 0.0210
2025-04-30 20:00: 0.0195
2025-05-01 04:00: 0.0195
2025-05-01 12:00: 0.0195
Trade Summary: Total trades: 1000000, Buy volume: 68772338.99, Sell volume: 20622642.82, Average price: 0.8267, Price range: 0.0010 - 0.9990

Output: No


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 527801
Question: Will Gavin Newsom be the first leader out in 2025?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 552939.072314
Price History:
2025-05-02 09:00: 0.0195
2025-05-02 17:00: 0.0195
2025-05-03 01:00: 0.0195
2025-05-03 09:00: 0.0195
2025-05-03 17:00: 0.0195
2025-05-04 01:00: 0.0195
2025-05-04 09:00: 0.0195
2025-05-04 17:00: 0.0190
2025-05-05 01:00: 0.0170
2025-05-05 09:00: 0.0175
2025-05-05 17:00: 0.0170
2025-05-06 01:00: 0.0170
2025-05-06 09:00: 0.0170
2025-05-06 17:00: 0.0210
2025-05-07 01:00: 0.0215
2025-05-07 09:00: 0.0175
2025-05-07 17:00: 0.0170
2025-05-08 01:00: 0.0175
2025-05-08 09:00: 0.0170
2025-05-08 17:00: 0.0170
2025-05-09 01:00: 0.0170
2025-05-09 09:00: 0.0170
2025-05-09 17:00: 0.0175
2025-05-10 01:00: 0.0175
2025-05-10 09:00: 0.0175
2025-05-10 17:00: 0.0175
2025-05-11 01:00: 0.0175
2025-05-11 09:00: 0.0175
2025-05-11 17:00: 0.0180
2025-05-12 01:00: 0.0175
2025-05-12 09:00: 0.0175
2025-05-12 17:00: 0.0185
2025-05-13 01:00: 0.0180
2025-05-13 09:00: 0.0180
2025-05-13 17:00: 0.0180
2025-05-14 01:00: 0.0180
2025-05-14 09:00: 0.0185
2025-05-14 17:00: 0.0180
2025-05-15 01:00: 0.0180
2025-05-15 09:00: 0.0185
2025-05-15 17:00: 0.0170
2025-05-16 01:00: 0.0155
2025-05-16 09:00: 0.0160
2025-05-16 17:00: 0.0160
2025-05-17 01:00: 0.0160
2025-05-17 09:00: 0.0160
2025-05-17 17:00: 0.0160
2025-05-18 01:00: 0.0170
2025-05-18 09:00: 0.0170
2025-05-18 17:00: 0.0170
Trade Summary: Total trades: 1000000, Buy volume: 68772338.99, Sell volume: 20622642.82, Average price: 0.8267, Price range: 0.0010 - 0.9990

Output: No


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 527801
Question: Will Gavin Newsom be the first leader out in 2025?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 552939.072314
Price History:
2025-05-19 14:00: 0.0155
2025-05-19 22:00: 0.0150
2025-05-20 06:00: 0.0120
2025-05-20 14:00: 0.0085
2025-05-20 22:00: 0.0105
2025-05-21 06:00: 0.0100
2025-05-21 14:00: 0.0100
2025-05-21 22:00: 0.0100
2025-05-22 06:00: 0.0100
2025-05-22 14:00: 0.0100
2025-05-22 22:00: 0.0100
2025-05-23 06:00: 0.0110
2025-05-23 14:00: 0.0090
2025-05-23 22:00: 0.0095
2025-05-24 06:00: 0.0105
2025-05-24 14:00: 0.0095
2025-05-24 22:00: 0.0080
2025-05-25 06:00: 0.0080
2025-05-25 14:00: 0.0080
2025-05-25 22:00: 0.0080
2025-05-26 06:00: 0.0080
2025-05-26 14:00: 0.0080
2025-05-26 22:00: 0.0080
2025-05-27 06:00: 0.0080
2025-05-27 14:00: 0.0080
2025-05-27 22:00: 0.0080
2025-05-28 06:00: 0.0120
2025-05-28 14:00: 0.0080
2025-05-28 22:00: 0.0075
2025-05-29 06:00: 0.0075
2025-05-29 14:00: 0.0085
2025-05-29 22:00: 0.0065
2025-05-30 06:00: 0.0060
2025-05-30 14:00: 0.0065
2025-05-30 22:00: 0.0060
2025-05-31 06:00: 0.0060
2025-05-31 14:00: 0.0060
2025-05-31 22:00: 0.0060
2025-06-01 06:00: 0.0060
2025-06-01 14:00: 0.0060
2025-06-01 22:00: 0.0060
2025-06-02 06:00: 0.0055
2025-06-02 14:00: 0.0060
2025-06-02 22:00: 0.0060
2025-06-03 06:00: 0.0040
2025-06-03 14:00: 0.0055
2025-06-03 22:00: 0.0050
2025-06-04 06:00: 0.0060
2025-06-04 14:00: 0.0045
2025-06-04 22:00: 0.0060
Trade Summary: Total trades: 1000000, Buy volume: 68772338.99, Sell volume: 20622642.82, Average price: 0.8267, Price range: 0.0010 - 0.9990

Output: No


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 527801
Question: Will Gavin Newsom be the first leader out in 2025?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 552939.072314
Price History:
2025-06-05 19:00: 0.0050
2025-06-06 03:00: 0.0055
2025-06-06 11:00: 0.0055
2025-06-06 19:00: 0.0055
2025-06-07 03:00: 0.0055
2025-06-07 11:00: 0.0055
2025-06-07 19:00: 0.0055
2025-06-08 03:00: 0.0055
2025-06-08 11:00: 0.0055
2025-06-08 19:00: 0.0055
2025-06-09 03:00: 0.0045
2025-06-09 11:00: 0.0055
2025-06-09 19:00: 0.0075
2025-06-10 03:00: 0.0070
2025-06-10 11:00: 0.0060
2025-06-10 19:00: 0.0065
2025-06-11 03:00: 0.0080
2025-06-11 11:00: 0.0070
2025-06-11 19:00: 0.0080
2025-06-12 03:00: 0.0075
2025-06-12 11:00: 0.0055
2025-06-12 19:00: 0.0075
2025-06-13 04:00: 0.0075
2025-06-13 12:00: 0.0065
2025-06-13 20:00: 0.0115
2025-06-14 04:00: 0.0095
2025-06-14 12:00: 0.0105
2025-06-14 20:00: 0.0105
2025-06-15 04:00: 0.0075
2025-06-15 12:00: 0.0075
2025-06-15 20:00: 0.0075
2025-06-16 04:00: 0.0065
2025-06-16 12:00: 0.0075
2025-06-16 20:00: 0.0090
2025-06-17 04:00: 0.0075
2025-06-17 12:00: 0.0070
2025-06-17 20:00: 0.0075
2025-06-18 04:00: 0.0075
2025-06-18 12:00: 0.0055
2025-06-18 20:00: 0.0055
2025-06-19 04:00: 0.0055
2025-06-19 12:00: 0.0055
2025-06-19 20:00: 0.0055
2025-06-20 04:00: 0.0055
2025-06-20 12:00: 0.0075
2025-06-20 20:00: 0.0045
2025-06-21 04:00: 0.0075
2025-06-21 12:00: 0.0105
2025-06-21 20:00: 0.0055
2025-06-22 04:00: 0.0050
Trade Summary: Total trades: 1000000, Buy volume: 68772338.99, Sell volume: 20622642.82, Average price: 0.8267, Price range: 0.0010 - 0.9990

Output: No


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 527801
Question: Will Gavin Newsom be the first leader out in 2025?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 552939.072314
Price History:
2025-06-23 01:00: 0.0095
2025-06-23 09:00: 0.0115
2025-06-23 17:00: 0.0045
2025-06-24 01:00: 0.0045
2025-06-24 09:00: 0.0045
2025-06-24 17:00: 0.0045
2025-06-25 01:00: 0.0045
2025-06-25 09:00: 0.0045
2025-06-25 17:00: 0.0045
2025-06-26 01:00: 0.0045
2025-06-26 09:00: 0.0045
2025-06-26 17:00: 0.0080
2025-06-27 01:00: 0.0045
2025-06-27 09:00: 0.0085
2025-06-27 17:00: 0.0050
2025-06-28 01:00: 0.0050
2025-06-28 09:00: 0.0045
2025-06-28 17:00: 0.0045
2025-06-29 01:00: 0.0045
2025-06-29 09:00: 0.0045
2025-06-29 17:00: 0.0045
2025-06-30 01:00: 0.0040
2025-06-30 09:00: 0.0040
2025-06-30 17:00: 0.0040
2025-07-01 01:00: 0.0035
2025-07-01 09:00: 0.0035
2025-07-01 17:00: 0.0035
2025-07-02 01:00: 0.0035
2025-07-02 09:00: 0.0035
2025-07-02 17:00: 0.0035
2025-07-03 01:00: 0.0025
2025-07-03 09:00: 0.0025
2025-07-03 17:00: 0.0030
2025-07-04 01:00: 0.0030
2025-07-04 09:00: 0.0030
2025-07-04 17:00: 0.0030
2025-07-05 01:00: 0.0030
2025-07-05 09:00: 0.0035
2025-07-05 17:00: 0.0030
2025-07-06 01:00: 0.0030
2025-07-06 09:00: 0.0035
2025-07-06 17:00: 0.0035
2025-07-07 01:00: 0.0035
2025-07-07 09:00: 0.0030
2025-07-07 17:00: 0.0025
2025-07-08 01:00: 0.0025
2025-07-08 09:00: 0.0080
2025-07-08 17:00: 0.0055
2025-07-09 01:00: 0.0055
2025-07-09 09:00: 0.0030
Trade Summary: Total trades: 1000000, Buy volume: 68772338.99, Sell volume: 20622642.82, Average price: 0.8267, Price range: 0.0010 - 0.9990

Output: No


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 527801
Question: Will Gavin Newsom be the first leader out in 2025?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 552939.072314
Price History:
2025-07-10 06:00: 0.0025
2025-07-10 14:00: 0.0025
2025-07-10 22:00: 0.0025
2025-07-11 06:00: 0.0025
2025-07-11 14:00: 0.0025
2025-07-11 22:00: 0.0025
2025-07-12 06:00: 0.0025
2025-07-12 14:00: 0.0025
2025-07-12 22:00: 0.0025
2025-07-13 06:00: 0.0025
2025-07-13 14:00: 0.0025
2025-07-13 22:00: 0.0025
2025-07-14 06:00: 0.0025
2025-07-14 14:00: 0.0025
2025-07-14 22:00: 0.0035
2025-07-15 06:00: 0.0035
2025-07-15 14:00: 0.0030
2025-07-15 22:00: 0.0030
2025-07-16 06:00: 0.0045
2025-07-16 14:00: 0.0090
2025-07-16 22:00: 0.0025
2025-07-17 06:00: 0.0025
2025-07-17 14:00: 0.0025
2025-07-17 22:00: 0.0025
2025-07-18 06:00: 0.0025
2025-07-18 14:00: 0.0025
2025-07-18 22:00: 0.0020
2025-07-19 06:00: 0.0020
2025-07-19 14:00: 0.0020
2025-07-19 22:00: 0.0020
2025-07-20 06:00: 0.0020
2025-07-20 14:00: 0.0020
2025-07-20 22:00: 0.0020
2025-07-21 06:00: 0.0020
2025-07-21 14:00: 0.0385
2025-07-21 22:00: 0.0040
2025-07-22 06:00: 0.0035
2025-07-22 14:00: 0.0030
2025-07-22 22:00: 0.0030
2025-07-23 05:00: 0.0080
2025-07-23 13:00: 0.0090
2025-07-23 21:00: 0.0030
2025-07-24 05:00: 0.0030
2025-07-24 13:00: 0.0030
2025-07-24 21:00: 0.0035
2025-07-25 05:00: 0.0035
2025-07-25 13:00: 0.0035
2025-07-25 21:00: 0.0035
2025-07-26 05:00: 0.0030
2025-07-26 13:00: 0.0030
Trade Summary: Total trades: 1000000, Buy volume: 68772338.99, Sell volume: 20622642.82, Average price: 0.8267, Price range: 0.0010 - 0.9990

Output: No


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 527801
Question: Will Gavin Newsom be the first leader out in 2025?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 552939.072314
Price History:
2025-07-27 10:00: 0.0035
2025-07-27 18:00: 0.0030
2025-07-28 02:00: 0.0030
2025-07-28 10:00: 0.0025
2025-07-28 18:00: 0.0030
2025-07-29 02:00: 0.0030
2025-07-29 10:00: 0.0030
2025-07-29 18:00: 0.0030
2025-07-30 02:00: 0.0015
2025-07-30 10:00: 0.0015
2025-07-30 18:00: 0.0075
2025-07-31 02:00: 0.0125
2025-07-31 10:00: 0.0035
2025-07-31 18:00: 0.0035
2025-08-01 02:00: 0.0035
2025-08-01 10:00: 0.0025
2025-08-01 18:00: 0.0015
2025-08-02 02:00: 0.0015
2025-08-02 10:00: 0.0025
2025-08-02 18:00: 0.0015
2025-08-03 02:00: 0.0015
2025-08-03 10:00: 0.0015
2025-08-03 18:00: 0.0015
2025-08-04 02:00: 0.0015
2025-08-04 10:00: 0.0020
2025-08-04 18:00: 0.0020
2025-08-05 02:00: 0.0020
2025-08-05 10:00: 0.0020
2025-08-05 18:00: 0.0020
2025-08-06 02:00: 0.0020
2025-08-06 10:00: 0.0020
2025-08-06 18:00: 0.0015
2025-08-07 02:00: 0.0015
2025-08-07 10:00: 0.0015
2025-08-07 18:00: 0.9985
2025-08-08 02:00: 0.0015
2025-08-08 10:00: 0.0015
2025-08-08 18:00: 0.9985
2025-08-09 02:00: 0.0015
2025-08-09 10:00: 0.0015
2025-08-09 18:00: 0.0015
2025-08-10 02:00: 0.0015
2025-08-10 10:00: 0.0020
2025-08-10 18:00: 0.0025
2025-08-11 02:00: 0.9975
2025-08-11 10:00: 0.0025
2025-08-11 18:00: 0.0025
2025-08-12 02:00: 0.9975
2025-08-12 10:00: 0.0025
2025-08-12 18:00: 0.9975
Trade Summary: Total trades: 51948, Buy volume: 5990105.90, Sell volume: 2925731.34, Average price: 0.8066, Price range: 0.0010 - 0.9990

Output: No


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 527801
Question: Will Gavin Newsom be the first leader out in 2025?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 552939.072314
Price History:
2025-08-13 15:00: 0.0025
2025-08-13 23:00: 0.9975
2025-08-14 07:00: 0.9975
2025-08-14 15:00: 0.9945
2025-08-14 23:00: 0.9945
2025-08-15 07:00: 0.9935
2025-08-15 15:00: 0.9980
2025-08-15 23:00: 0.0015
2025-08-16 07:00: 0.9985
2025-08-16 15:00: 0.9990
2025-08-16 23:00: 0.9990
2025-08-17 07:00: 0.9990
2025-08-17 15:00: 0.0015
2025-08-17 23:00: 0.0015
2025-08-18 07:00: 0.0015
2025-08-18 15:00: 0.0015
2025-08-18 23:00: 0.0025
2025-08-19 07:00: 0.9945
2025-08-19 15:00: 0.0035
2025-08-19 23:00: 0.0035
2025-08-20 07:00: 0.0020
2025-08-20 15:00: 0.0020
2025-08-20 23:00: 0.9985
2025-08-21 07:00: 0.9985
2025-08-21 15:00: 0.9985
2025-08-21 23:00: 0.9985
2025-08-22 07:00: 0.9985
2025-08-22 15:00: 0.0015
2025-08-22 23:00: 0.9985
2025-08-23 07:00: 0.9985
2025-08-23 15:00: 0.9980
2025-08-23 23:00: 0.9980
2025-08-24 07:00: 0.9980
2025-08-24 15:00: 0.0020
2025-08-24 23:00: 0.0035
2025-08-25 07:00: 0.0035
2025-08-25 15:00: 0.0040
2025-08-25 23:00: 0.9960
2025-08-26 06:00: 0.9960
2025-08-26 14:00: 0.9960
2025-08-26 22:00: 0.0045
2025-08-27 06:00: 0.9945
2025-08-27 14:00: 0.9945
2025-08-27 22:00: 0.0045
2025-08-28 06:00: 0.0040
2025-08-28 14:00: 0.0045
2025-08-28 22:00: 0.9955
2025-08-29 06:00: 0.0040
2025-08-29 14:00: 0.0055
2025-08-29 22:00: 0.0040
Trade Summary: Total trades: 549450, Buy volume: 39321384.63, Sell volume: 7720691.58, Average price: 0.7263, Price range: 0.0010 - 0.9990

Output: No


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 527801
Question: Will Gavin Newsom be the first leader out in 2025?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 552939.072314
Price History:
2025-08-30 19:00: 0.9960
2025-08-31 03:00: 0.0040
2025-08-31 11:00: 0.0030
2025-08-31 19:00: 0.0040
2025-09-01 03:00: 0.0045
2025-09-01 11:00: 0.0025
2025-09-01 19:00: 0.9980
2025-09-02 03:00: 0.9975
2025-09-02 11:00: 0.9975
2025-09-02 19:00: 0.9980
2025-09-03 03:00: 0.9980
2025-09-03 11:00: 0.0020
2025-09-03 19:00: 0.0020
2025-09-04 03:00: 0.0025
2025-09-04 11:00: 0.9975
2025-09-04 19:00: 0.9975
2025-09-05 03:00: 0.0025
2025-09-05 11:00: 0.9975
2025-09-05 19:00: 0.9975
2025-09-06 03:00: 0.0025
2025-09-06 11:00: 0.9980
2025-09-06 19:00: 0.9980
2025-09-07 03:00: 0.0015
2025-09-07 11:00: 0.0005
2025-09-07 19:00: 0.0005
2025-09-08 03:00: 0.0005
2025-09-08 11:00: 0.0005
2025-09-08 19:00: 0.0005
2025-09-09 03:00: 0.0025
2025-09-09 11:00: 0.9980
2025-09-09 19:00: 0.0025
2025-09-10 03:00: 0.0020
2025-09-10 11:00: 0.9970
2025-09-10 19:00: 0.9990
2025-09-11 03:00: 0.0015
2025-09-11 11:00: 0.0010
2025-09-11 19:00: 0.0010
2025-09-12 03:00: 0.9990
2025-09-12 11:00: 0.0010
2025-09-12 19:00: 0.0010
2025-09-13 03:00: 0.0010
2025-09-13 11:00: 0.9990
2025-09-13 19:00: 0.9995
2025-09-14 03:00: 0.9995
2025-09-14 11:00: 0.9995
2025-09-14 19:00: 0.9995
2025-09-15 03:00: 0.9995
2025-09-15 11:00: 0.0005
2025-09-15 19:00: 0.0005
2025-09-16 03:00: 0.9995
Trade Summary: Total trades: 391923, Buy volume: 23090105.29, Sell volume: 9925464.55, Average price: 0.9674, Price range: 0.0010 - 0.9990

Output: No


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 527801
Question: Will Gavin Newsom be the first leader out in 2025?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 552939.072314
Price History:
2025-09-17 00:00: 0.0010
2025-09-17 08:00: 0.0010
2025-09-17 17:00: 0.0010
2025-09-18 01:00: 0.9990
2025-09-18 09:00: 0.9990
2025-09-18 17:00: 0.0010
2025-09-19 01:00: 0.9990
2025-09-19 09:00: 0.9990
2025-09-19 17:00: 0.0015
2025-09-20 01:00: 0.9990
2025-09-20 09:00: 0.0010
2025-09-20 17:00: 0.0010
2025-09-21 01:00: 0.0010
2025-09-21 09:00: 0.9990
2025-09-21 17:00: 0.0010
2025-09-22 01:00: 0.9990
2025-09-22 09:00: 0.0010
2025-09-22 17:00: 0.0010
2025-09-23 01:00: 0.0010
2025-09-23 09:00: 0.9990
2025-09-23 17:00: 0.0010
2025-09-24 01:00: 0.9990
2025-09-24 09:00: 0.0010
2025-09-24 17:00: 0.0005
2025-09-25 01:00: 0.9995
2025-09-25 09:00: 0.9995
2025-09-25 17:00: 0.9995
2025-09-26 01:00: 0.0005
2025-09-26 09:00: 0.9995
2025-09-26 17:00: 0.9995
2025-09-27 01:00: 0.0005
2025-09-27 09:00: 0.9995
2025-09-27 17:00: 0.9995
2025-09-28 01:00: 0.9995
2025-09-28 09:00: 0.0005
2025-09-28 17:00: 0.9995
2025-09-29 01:00: 0.0005
2025-09-29 09:00: 0.0005
2025-09-29 17:00: 0.0005
2025-09-30 01:00: 0.0005
2025-09-30 09:00: 0.0005
2025-09-30 17:00: 0.9995
2025-10-01 01:00: 0.9995
2025-10-01 09:00: 0.9995
2025-10-01 17:00: 0.9995
2025-10-02 01:00: 0.0005
2025-10-02 09:00: 0.0005
2025-10-02 17:00: 0.0005
2025-10-03 01:00: 0.0005
2025-10-03 09:00: 0.0005
Trade Summary: Total trades: 98, Buy volume: 33953.42, Sell volume: 612.32, Average price: 0.4898, Price range: 0.0010 - 0.9990

Output: No


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 527801
Question: Will Gavin Newsom be the first leader out in 2025?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 552939.072314
Price History:
2025-10-04 06:00: 0.9995
2025-10-04 14:00: 0.9995
2025-10-04 22:00: 0.9995
2025-10-05 06:00: 0.9995
2025-10-05 14:00: 0.9995
2025-10-05 22:00: 0.9995
2025-10-06 06:00: 0.9995
2025-10-06 14:00: 0.0005
2025-10-06 22:00: 0.9995
2025-10-07 06:00: 0.0005
2025-10-07 14:00: 0.9995
2025-10-07 22:00: 0.9995
2025-10-08 06:00: 0.0005
2025-10-08 14:00: 0.0005
2025-10-08 22:00: 0.0005
2025-10-09 06:00: 0.0005
2025-10-09 14:00: 0.0005
2025-10-09 22:00: 0.0005
2025-10-10 06:00: 0.0015
2025-10-10 14:00: 0.9980
2025-10-10 22:00: 0.9990
2025-10-11 06:00: 0.0010
2025-10-11 14:00: 0.0010
2025-10-11 22:00: 0.9995
2025-10-12 06:00: 0.9990
2025-10-12 14:00: 0.9990
2025-10-12 22:00: 0.0010
2025-10-13 06:00: 0.9990
2025-10-13 14:00: 0.9985
2025-10-13 22:00: 0.0015
2025-10-14 06:00: 0.0005
2025-10-14 14:00: 0.9995
2025-10-14 22:00: 0.0005
2025-10-15 06:00: 0.9985
2025-10-15 14:00: 0.9985
2025-10-15 22:00: 0.9985
2025-10-16 06:00: 0.0015
2025-10-16 14:00: 0.0015
2025-10-16 22:00: 0.0015
2025-10-17 06:00: 0.0015
2025-10-17 14:00: 0.9985
2025-10-17 22:00: 0.9985
2025-10-18 06:00: 0.9990
2025-10-18 14:00: 0.0005
2025-10-18 22:00: 0.9995
2025-10-19 06:00: 0.0005
2025-10-19 14:00: 0.0005
2025-10-19 22:00: 0.0005
2025-10-20 06:00: 0.0005
2025-10-20 14:00: 0.0005
Trade Summary: Total trades: 587, Buy volume: 254971.65, Sell volume: 50143.03, Average price: 0.8527, Price range: 0.0010 - 0.9990

Output: No


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 527801
Question: Will Gavin Newsom be the first leader out in 2025?
Volume: 552939.072314
Price History:
2025-03-11 18:00: 0.5000
2025-03-12 07:00: 0.9575
2025-03-12 21:00: 0.0420
2025-03-13 10:00: 0.9585
2025-03-14 00:00: 0.0340
2025-03-14 13:00: 0.9685
2025-03-15 03:00: 0.0335
2025-03-15 16:00: 0.9670
2025-03-16 06:00: 0.0320
2025-03-16 19:00: 0.9665
2025-03-17 09:00: 0.0325
2025-03-17 22:00: 0.9680
2025-03-18 12:00: 0.0330
2025-03-19 01:00: 0.9670
2025-03-19 15:00: 0.0330
2025-03-20 04:00: 0.9665
2025-03-20 18:00: 0.0200
2025-03-21 07:00: 0.9800
2025-03-21 21:00: 0.0170
2025-03-22 10:00: 0.9820
2025-03-23 00:00: 0.0170
2025-03-23 13:00: 0.9805
2025-03-24 03:00: 0.0180
2025-03-24 16:00: 0.9825
2025-03-25 06:00: 0.0200
2025-03-25 19:00: 0.9825
2025-03-26 09:00: 0.0145
2025-03-26 22:00: 0.9835
2025-03-27 12:00: 0.0215
2025-03-28 01:00: 0.9835
Trade Summary: Total trades: 1000000, Buy volume: 68772338.99, Sell volume: 20622642.82, Average price: 0.8267, Price range: 0.0010 - 0.9990
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike, wash_trading

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 527801
Question: Will Gavin Newsom be the first leader out in 2025?
Volume: 552939.072314
Price History:
2025-03-28 23:00: 0.0165
2025-03-29 12:00: 0.9835
2025-03-30 02:00: 0.0155
2025-03-30 15:00: 0.9820
2025-03-31 05:00: 0.0190
2025-03-31 18:00: 0.9915
2025-04-01 08:00: 0.0070
2025-04-01 21:00: 0.9895
2025-04-02 11:00: 0.0110
2025-04-03 00:00: 0.9900
2025-04-03 14:00: 0.0160
2025-04-04 03:00: 0.9840
2025-04-04 17:00: 0.0160
2025-04-05 06:00: 0.9840
2025-04-05 20:00: 0.0160
2025-04-06 09:00: 0.9840
2025-04-06 23:00: 0.0160
2025-04-07 12:00: 0.9840
2025-04-08 02:00: 0.0160
2025-04-08 15:00: 0.9835
2025-04-09 05:00: 0.0160
2025-04-09 18:00: 0.9845
2025-04-10 08:00: 0.0150
2025-04-10 21:00: 0.9850
2025-04-11 11:00: 0.0160
2025-04-12 00:00: 0.9850
2025-04-12 14:00: 0.0160
2025-04-13 03:00: 0.9840
2025-04-13 17:00: 0.0220
2025-04-14 06:00: 0.9780
Trade Summary: Total trades: 1000000, Buy volume: 68772338.99, Sell volume: 20622642.82, Average price: 0.8267, Price range: 0.0010 - 0.9990
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike, wash_trading

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 527801
Question: Will Gavin Newsom be the first leader out in 2025?
Volume: 552939.072314
Price History:
2025-04-15 04:00: 0.0190
2025-04-15 17:00: 0.9755
2025-04-16 07:00: 0.0220
2025-04-16 20:00: 0.9780
2025-04-17 10:00: 0.0210
2025-04-17 23:00: 0.9825
2025-04-18 13:00: 0.0180
2025-04-19 02:00: 0.9825
2025-04-19 16:00: 0.0180
2025-04-20 05:00: 0.9825
2025-04-20 19:00: 0.0190
2025-04-21 08:00: 0.9810
2025-04-21 22:00: 0.0185
2025-04-22 11:00: 0.9805
2025-04-23 01:00: 0.0200
2025-04-23 14:00: 0.9785
2025-04-24 04:00: 0.0195
2025-04-24 17:00: 0.9800
2025-04-25 07:00: 0.0195
2025-04-25 20:00: 0.9805
2025-04-26 10:00: 0.0190
2025-04-26 23:00: 0.9785
2025-04-27 13:00: 0.0215
2025-04-28 02:00: 0.9795
2025-04-28 16:00: 0.0220
2025-04-29 05:00: 0.9785
2025-04-29 19:00: 0.0205
2025-04-30 08:00: 0.9785
2025-04-30 22:00: 0.0195
2025-05-01 11:00: 0.9805
Trade Summary: Total trades: 1000000, Buy volume: 68772338.99, Sell volume: 20622642.82, Average price: 0.8267, Price range: 0.0010 - 0.9990
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike, wash_trading

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 527801
Question: Will Gavin Newsom be the first leader out in 2025?
Volume: 552939.072314
Price History:
2025-05-02 09:00: 0.0195
2025-05-02 22:00: 0.9805
2025-05-03 12:00: 0.0195
2025-05-04 01:00: 0.9805
2025-05-04 15:00: 0.0195
2025-05-05 04:00: 0.9830
2025-05-05 18:00: 0.0175
2025-05-06 07:00: 0.9830
2025-05-06 21:00: 0.0185
2025-05-07 10:00: 0.9830
2025-05-08 00:00: 0.0175
2025-05-08 13:00: 0.9830
2025-05-09 03:00: 0.0165
2025-05-09 16:00: 0.9825
2025-05-10 06:00: 0.0175
2025-05-10 19:00: 0.9825
2025-05-11 09:00: 0.0175
2025-05-11 22:00: 0.9820
2025-05-12 12:00: 0.0180
2025-05-13 01:00: 0.9820
2025-05-13 15:00: 0.0180
2025-05-14 04:00: 0.9820
2025-05-14 18:00: 0.0180
2025-05-15 07:00: 0.9815
2025-05-15 21:00: 0.0155
2025-05-16 10:00: 0.9850
2025-05-17 00:00: 0.0160
2025-05-17 13:00: 0.9840
2025-05-18 03:00: 0.0170
2025-05-18 16:00: 0.9830
Trade Summary: Total trades: 1000000, Buy volume: 68772338.99, Sell volume: 20622642.82, Average price: 0.8267, Price range: 0.0010 - 0.9990
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike, wash_trading

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 527801
Question: Will Gavin Newsom be the first leader out in 2025?
Volume: 552939.072314
Price History:
2025-05-19 14:00: 0.0155
2025-05-20 03:00: 0.9880
2025-05-20 17:00: 0.0090
2025-05-21 06:00: 0.9900
2025-05-21 20:00: 0.0100
2025-05-22 09:00: 0.9900
2025-05-22 23:00: 0.0095
2025-05-23 12:00: 0.9900
2025-05-24 02:00: 0.0090
2025-05-24 15:00: 0.9910
2025-05-25 05:00: 0.0080
2025-05-25 18:00: 0.9920
2025-05-26 08:00: 0.0080
2025-05-26 21:00: 0.9920
2025-05-27 11:00: 0.0080
2025-05-28 00:00: 0.9920
2025-05-28 14:00: 0.0080
2025-05-29 03:00: 0.9925
2025-05-29 17:00: 0.0065
2025-05-30 06:00: 0.9940
2025-05-30 20:00: 0.0060
2025-05-31 09:00: 0.9940
2025-05-31 23:00: 0.0060
2025-06-01 12:00: 0.9940
2025-06-02 02:00: 0.0060
2025-06-02 15:00: 0.9940
2025-06-03 05:00: 0.0040
2025-06-03 18:00: 0.9935
2025-06-04 08:00: 0.0060
2025-06-04 21:00: 0.9945
Trade Summary: Total trades: 1000000, Buy volume: 68772338.99, Sell volume: 20622642.82, Average price: 0.8267, Price range: 0.0010 - 0.9990
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike, wash_trading

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 527801
Question: Will Gavin Newsom be the first leader out in 2025?
Volume: 552939.072314
Price History:
2025-06-05 19:00: 0.0050
2025-06-06 08:00: 0.9945
2025-06-06 22:00: 0.0055
2025-06-07 11:00: 0.9945
2025-06-08 01:00: 0.0055
2025-06-08 14:00: 0.9945
2025-06-09 04:00: 0.0045
2025-06-09 17:00: 0.9925
2025-06-10 07:00: 0.0075
2025-06-10 20:00: 0.9935
2025-06-11 10:00: 0.0065
2025-06-11 23:00: 0.9925
2025-06-12 13:00: 0.0100
2025-06-13 02:00: 0.9935
2025-06-13 17:00: 0.0075
2025-06-14 06:00: 0.9910
2025-06-14 20:00: 0.0105
2025-06-15 09:00: 0.9930
2025-06-15 23:00: 0.0065
2025-06-16 12:00: 0.9925
2025-06-17 02:00: 0.0080
2025-06-17 15:00: 0.9925
2025-06-18 05:00: 0.0075
2025-06-18 18:00: 0.9945
2025-06-19 08:00: 0.0055
2025-06-19 21:00: 0.9945
2025-06-20 11:00: 0.0075
2025-06-21 00:00: 0.9955
2025-06-21 14:00: 0.0090
2025-06-22 03:00: 0.9950
Trade Summary: Total trades: 1000000, Buy volume: 68772338.99, Sell volume: 20622642.82, Average price: 0.8267, Price range: 0.0010 - 0.9990
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike, wash_trading

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 527801
Question: Will Gavin Newsom be the first leader out in 2025?
Volume: 552939.072314
Price History:
2025-06-23 01:00: 0.0095
2025-06-23 14:00: 0.9955
2025-06-24 04:00: 0.0045
2025-06-24 17:00: 0.9955
2025-06-25 07:00: 0.0045
2025-06-25 20:00: 0.9955
2025-06-26 10:00: 0.0045
2025-06-26 23:00: 0.9920
2025-06-27 13:00: 0.0050
2025-06-28 02:00: 0.9950
2025-06-28 16:00: 0.0045
2025-06-29 05:00: 0.9955
2025-06-29 19:00: 0.0045
2025-06-30 08:00: 0.9960
2025-06-30 22:00: 0.0035
2025-07-01 11:00: 0.9965
2025-07-02 01:00: 0.0035
2025-07-02 14:00: 0.9965
2025-07-03 04:00: 0.0025
2025-07-03 17:00: 0.9970
2025-07-04 07:00: 0.0030
2025-07-04 20:00: 0.9965
2025-07-05 10:00: 0.0035
2025-07-05 23:00: 0.9970
2025-07-06 13:00: 0.0035
2025-07-07 02:00: 0.9965
2025-07-07 16:00: 0.0025
2025-07-08 05:00: 0.9975
2025-07-08 19:00: 0.0055
2025-07-09 08:00: 0.9970
Trade Summary: Total trades: 1000000, Buy volume: 68772338.99, Sell volume: 20622642.82, Average price: 0.8267, Price range: 0.0010 - 0.9990
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike, wash_trading

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 527801
Question: Will Gavin Newsom be the first leader out in 2025?
Volume: 552939.072314
Price History:
2025-07-10 06:00: 0.0025
2025-07-10 19:00: 0.9975
2025-07-11 09:00: 0.0025
2025-07-11 22:00: 0.9975
2025-07-12 12:00: 0.0025
2025-07-13 01:00: 0.9975
2025-07-13 15:00: 0.0025
2025-07-14 04:00: 0.9975
2025-07-14 18:00: 0.0105
2025-07-15 07:00: 0.9970
2025-07-15 21:00: 0.0030
2025-07-16 10:00: 0.9955
2025-07-17 00:00: 0.0025
2025-07-17 13:00: 0.9975
2025-07-18 03:00: 0.0025
2025-07-18 16:00: 0.9980
2025-07-19 06:00: 0.0020
2025-07-19 19:00: 0.9980
2025-07-20 09:00: 0.0020
2025-07-20 22:00: 0.9980
2025-07-21 12:00: 0.0020
2025-07-22 01:00: 0.9965
2025-07-22 15:00: 0.0030
2025-07-23 03:00: 0.9975
2025-07-23 17:00: 0.0065
2025-07-24 06:00: 0.9970
2025-07-24 20:00: 0.0030
2025-07-25 09:00: 0.9965
2025-07-25 23:00: 0.0035
2025-07-26 12:00: 0.9965
Trade Summary: Total trades: 1000000, Buy volume: 68772338.99, Sell volume: 20622642.82, Average price: 0.8267, Price range: 0.0010 - 0.9990
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike, wash_trading

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 527801
Question: Will Gavin Newsom be the first leader out in 2025?
Volume: 552939.072314
Price History:
2025-07-27 10:00: 0.0035
2025-07-27 23:00: 0.9970
2025-07-28 13:00: 0.0030
2025-07-29 02:00: 0.9970
2025-07-29 16:00: 0.0015
2025-07-30 05:00: 0.9985
2025-07-30 19:00: 0.0225
2025-07-31 08:00: 0.9965
2025-07-31 22:00: 0.0035
2025-08-01 11:00: 0.9975
2025-08-02 01:00: 0.0015
2025-08-02 14:00: 0.9975
2025-08-03 04:00: 0.0015
2025-08-03 17:00: 0.9985
2025-08-04 07:00: 0.0015
2025-08-04 20:00: 0.9980
2025-08-05 10:00: 0.0020
2025-08-05 23:00: 0.9980
2025-08-06 13:00: 0.0020
2025-08-07 02:00: 0.9985
2025-08-07 16:00: 0.9985
2025-08-08 05:00: 0.9985
2025-08-08 19:00: 0.0015
2025-08-09 08:00: 0.9985
2025-08-09 22:00: 0.0015
2025-08-10 11:00: 0.0020
2025-08-11 01:00: 0.9975
2025-08-11 14:00: 0.9975
2025-08-12 04:00: 0.0025
2025-08-12 17:00: 0.0025
Trade Summary: Total trades: 51948, Buy volume: 5990105.90, Sell volume: 2925731.34, Average price: 0.8066, Price range: 0.0010 - 0.9990
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike, wash_trading

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 527801
Question: Will Gavin Newsom be the first leader out in 2025?
Volume: 552939.072314
Price History:
2025-08-13 15:00: 0.0025
2025-08-14 04:00: 0.0025
2025-08-14 18:00: 0.9945
2025-08-15 07:00: 0.0065
2025-08-15 21:00: 0.9985
2025-08-16 10:00: 0.0015
2025-08-17 00:00: 0.0010
2025-08-17 13:00: 0.9985
2025-08-18 03:00: 0.9985
2025-08-18 16:00: 0.9985
2025-08-19 06:00: 0.9940
2025-08-19 19:00: 0.0035
2025-08-20 09:00: 0.0020
2025-08-20 22:00: 0.0015
2025-08-21 12:00: 0.9985
2025-08-22 01:00: 0.9985
2025-08-22 15:00: 0.0015
2025-08-23 04:00: 0.9985
2025-08-23 18:00: 0.0020
2025-08-24 07:00: 0.0020
2025-08-24 21:00: 0.0035
2025-08-25 10:00: 0.0040
2025-08-25 23:00: 0.9960
2025-08-26 12:00: 0.0040
2025-08-27 02:00: 0.0045
2025-08-27 15:00: 0.9950
2025-08-28 05:00: 0.0045
2025-08-28 18:00: 0.0045
2025-08-29 08:00: 0.0040
2025-08-29 21:00: 0.9960
Trade Summary: Total trades: 549450, Buy volume: 39321384.63, Sell volume: 7720691.58, Average price: 0.7263, Price range: 0.0010 - 0.9990
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike, wash_trading

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 527801
Question: Will Gavin Newsom be the first leader out in 2025?
Volume: 552939.072314
Price History:
2025-08-30 19:00: 0.9960
2025-08-31 08:00: 0.9965
2025-08-31 22:00: 0.0035
2025-09-01 11:00: 0.9975
2025-09-02 01:00: 0.9975
2025-09-02 14:00: 0.0020
2025-09-03 04:00: 0.0020
2025-09-03 17:00: 0.9980
2025-09-04 07:00: 0.9975
2025-09-04 20:00: 0.0025
2025-09-05 10:00: 0.9975
2025-09-05 23:00: 0.0025
2025-09-06 13:00: 0.0020
2025-09-07 02:00: 0.9980
2025-09-07 16:00: 0.0005
2025-09-08 05:00: 0.9995
2025-09-08 19:00: 0.0005
2025-09-09 08:00: 0.9995
2025-09-09 22:00: 0.0005
2025-09-10 11:00: 0.0030
2025-09-11 01:00: 0.0010
2025-09-11 14:00: 0.9990
2025-09-12 04:00: 0.0010
2025-09-12 17:00: 0.0010
2025-09-13 07:00: 0.9990
2025-09-13 20:00: 0.9995
2025-09-14 10:00: 0.9995
2025-09-14 23:00: 0.9995
2025-09-15 13:00: 0.0005
2025-09-16 02:00: 0.9995
Trade Summary: Total trades: 391923, Buy volume: 23090105.29, Sell volume: 9925464.55, Average price: 0.9674, Price range: 0.0010 - 0.9990
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike, wash_trading

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 527801
Question: Will Gavin Newsom be the first leader out in 2025?
Volume: 552939.072314
Price History:
2025-09-17 00:00: 0.0010
2025-09-17 13:00: 0.0010
2025-09-18 04:00: 0.0010
2025-09-18 17:00: 0.9990
2025-09-19 07:00: 0.9990
2025-09-19 20:00: 0.0010
2025-09-20 10:00: 0.0010
2025-09-20 23:00: 0.9990
2025-09-21 13:00: 0.9990
2025-09-22 02:00: 0.0010
2025-09-22 16:00: 0.0010
2025-09-23 05:00: 0.0010
2025-09-23 19:00: 0.9990
2025-09-24 08:00: 0.9990
2025-09-24 22:00: 0.0005
2025-09-25 11:00: 0.9995
2025-09-26 01:00: 0.0005
2025-09-26 14:00: 0.0005
2025-09-27 04:00: 0.9995
2025-09-27 17:00: 0.0005
2025-09-28 07:00: 0.0005
2025-09-28 20:00: 0.9995
2025-09-29 10:00: 0.0005
2025-09-29 23:00: 0.9995
2025-09-30 13:00: 0.9995
2025-10-01 02:00: 0.0005
2025-10-01 16:00: 0.9995
2025-10-02 05:00: 0.9995
2025-10-02 19:00: 0.0005
2025-10-03 08:00: 0.0005
Trade Summary: Total trades: 98, Buy volume: 33953.42, Sell volume: 612.32, Average price: 0.4898, Price range: 0.0010 - 0.9990
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike, wash_trading

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 527801
Question: Will Gavin Newsom be the first leader out in 2025?
Volume: 552939.072314
Price History:
2025-10-04 06:00: 0.9995
2025-10-04 19:00: 0.9995
2025-10-05 09:00: 0.9995
2025-10-05 22:00: 0.0005
2025-10-06 12:00: 0.0005
2025-10-07 01:00: 0.0005
2025-10-07 15:00: 0.9995
2025-10-08 04:00: 0.0005
2025-10-08 18:00: 0.0005
2025-10-09 07:00: 0.9995
2025-10-09 21:00: 0.0005
2025-10-10 10:00: 0.9990
2025-10-11 00:00: 0.0010
2025-10-11 13:00: 0.0010
2025-10-12 03:00: 0.9990
2025-10-12 16:00: 0.9990
2025-10-13 06:00: 0.9990
2025-10-13 19:00: 0.9985
2025-10-14 09:00: 0.9995
2025-10-14 22:00: 0.9995
2025-10-15 12:00: 0.0015
2025-10-16 01:00: 0.9985
2025-10-16 15:00: 0.0015
2025-10-17 04:00: 0.9985
2025-10-17 18:00: 0.9985
2025-10-18 07:00: 0.0005
2025-10-18 21:00: 0.0005
2025-10-19 10:00: 0.9995
2025-10-20 00:00: 0.0005
2025-10-20 13:00: 0.9995
Trade Summary: Total trades: 587, Buy volume: 254971.65, Sell volume: 50143.03, Average price: 0.8527, Price range: 0.0010 - 0.9990
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike, wash_trading

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 527794
Question: Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the first leader out in 2025?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 1593629.46966
Price History:
2025-03-11 18:00: 0.5050
2025-03-12 02:00: 0.0275
2025-03-12 10:00: 0.0165
2025-03-12 18:00: 0.0165
2025-03-13 02:00: 0.0175
2025-03-13 10:00: 0.0175
2025-03-13 18:00: 0.0175
2025-03-14 02:00: 0.0175
2025-03-14 10:00: 0.0175
2025-03-14 18:00: 0.0175
2025-03-15 02:00: 0.0180
2025-03-15 10:00: 0.0180
2025-03-15 18:00: 0.0180
2025-03-16 02:00: 0.0180
2025-03-16 10:00: 0.0180
2025-03-16 18:00: 0.0180
2025-03-17 02:00: 0.0180
2025-03-17 10:00: 0.0435
2025-03-17 18:00: 0.0420
2025-03-18 02:00: 0.0415
2025-03-18 10:00: 0.0415
2025-03-18 18:00: 0.0415
2025-03-19 02:00: 0.0415
2025-03-19 10:00: 0.0410
2025-03-19 18:00: 0.0415
2025-03-20 02:00: 0.0415
2025-03-20 10:00: 0.0415
2025-03-20 18:00: 0.0825
2025-03-21 02:00: 0.0900
2025-03-21 10:00: 0.0795
2025-03-21 18:00: 0.0790
2025-03-22 02:00: 0.0780
2025-03-22 10:00: 0.0765
2025-03-22 18:00: 0.0785
2025-03-23 02:00: 0.0700
2025-03-23 10:00: 0.0795
2025-03-23 18:00: 0.0775
2025-03-24 02:00: 0.0790
2025-03-24 10:00: 0.0800
2025-03-24 18:00: 0.0675
2025-03-25 02:00: 0.0675
2025-03-25 10:00: 0.0465
2025-03-25 18:00: 0.0560
2025-03-26 02:00: 0.0575
2025-03-26 10:00: 0.0590
2025-03-26 18:00: 0.0375
2025-03-27 02:00: 0.0350
2025-03-27 10:00: 0.0360
2025-03-27 18:00: 0.0355
2025-03-28 02:00: 0.0355
Trade Summary: Total trades: 1000000, Buy volume: 289178896.84, Sell volume: 280694126.56, Average price: 0.5856, Price range: 0.0010 - 0.9990

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 527794
Question: Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the first leader out in 2025?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 1593629.46966
Price History:
2025-03-28 23:00: 0.0355
2025-03-29 07:00: 0.0355
2025-03-29 15:00: 0.0340
2025-03-29 23:00: 0.0330
2025-03-30 07:00: 0.0330
2025-03-30 15:00: 0.0315
2025-03-30 23:00: 0.0340
2025-03-31 07:00: 0.0295
2025-03-31 15:00: 0.0380
2025-03-31 23:00: 0.0415
2025-04-01 07:00: 0.0400
2025-04-01 15:00: 0.0380
2025-04-01 23:00: 0.0410
2025-04-02 07:00: 0.0415
2025-04-02 15:00: 0.0415
2025-04-02 23:00: 0.0430
2025-04-03 07:00: 0.0430
2025-04-03 15:00: 0.0430
2025-04-03 23:00: 0.0445
2025-04-04 07:00: 0.0440
2025-04-04 15:00: 0.0445
2025-04-04 23:00: 0.0445
2025-04-05 07:00: 0.0445
2025-04-05 15:00: 0.0440
2025-04-05 23:00: 0.0445
2025-04-06 07:00: 0.0445
2025-04-06 15:00: 0.0440
2025-04-06 23:00: 0.0445
2025-04-07 07:00: 0.0440
2025-04-07 15:00: 0.0445
2025-04-07 23:00: 0.0435
2025-04-08 07:00: 0.0445
2025-04-08 15:00: 0.0430
2025-04-08 23:00: 0.0440
2025-04-09 07:00: 0.0450
2025-04-09 15:00: 0.0450
2025-04-09 23:00: 0.0455
2025-04-10 07:00: 0.0450
2025-04-10 15:00: 0.0445
2025-04-10 23:00: 0.0450
2025-04-11 07:00: 0.0445
2025-04-11 15:00: 0.0445
2025-04-11 23:00: 0.0450
2025-04-12 07:00: 0.0445
2025-04-12 15:00: 0.0445
2025-04-12 23:00: 0.0445
2025-04-13 07:00: 0.0445
2025-04-13 15:00: 0.0460
2025-04-13 23:00: 0.0455
2025-04-14 07:00: 0.0415
Trade Summary: Total trades: 1000000, Buy volume: 289178896.84, Sell volume: 280694126.56, Average price: 0.5856, Price range: 0.0010 - 0.9990

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 527794
Question: Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the first leader out in 2025?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 1593629.46966
Price History:
2025-04-15 04:00: 0.0410
2025-04-15 12:00: 0.0430
2025-04-15 20:00: 0.0395
2025-04-16 04:00: 0.0390
2025-04-16 12:00: 0.0385
2025-04-16 20:00: 0.0380
2025-04-17 04:00: 0.0390
2025-04-17 12:00: 0.0395
2025-04-17 20:00: 0.0395
2025-04-18 04:00: 0.0395
2025-04-18 12:00: 0.0385
2025-04-18 20:00: 0.0400
2025-04-19 04:00: 0.0400
2025-04-19 12:00: 0.0405
2025-04-19 20:00: 0.0405
2025-04-20 04:00: 0.0405
2025-04-20 12:00: 0.0415
2025-04-20 20:00: 0.0410
2025-04-21 04:00: 0.0430
2025-04-21 12:00: 0.0445
2025-04-21 20:00: 0.0440
2025-04-22 04:00: 0.0445
2025-04-22 12:00: 0.0430
2025-04-22 20:00: 0.0440
2025-04-23 04:00: 0.0445
2025-04-23 12:00: 0.0435
2025-04-23 20:00: 0.0435
2025-04-24 04:00: 0.0435
2025-04-24 12:00: 0.0430
2025-04-24 20:00: 0.0430
2025-04-25 04:00: 0.0430
2025-04-25 12:00: 0.0435
2025-04-25 20:00: 0.0420
2025-04-26 04:00: 0.0430
2025-04-26 12:00: 0.0430
2025-04-26 20:00: 0.0430
2025-04-27 04:00: 0.0405
2025-04-27 12:00: 0.0410
2025-04-27 20:00: 0.0405
2025-04-28 04:00: 0.0430
2025-04-28 12:00: 0.0420
2025-04-28 20:00: 0.0415
2025-04-29 04:00: 0.0420
2025-04-29 12:00: 0.0415
2025-04-29 20:00: 0.0415
2025-04-30 04:00: 0.0415
2025-04-30 12:00: 0.0405
2025-04-30 20:00: 0.0410
2025-05-01 04:00: 0.0410
2025-05-01 12:00: 0.0405
Trade Summary: Total trades: 1000000, Buy volume: 289178896.84, Sell volume: 280694126.56, Average price: 0.5856, Price range: 0.0010 - 0.9990

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 527794
Question: Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the first leader out in 2025?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 1593629.46966
Price History:
2025-05-02 09:00: 0.0410
2025-05-02 17:00: 0.0405
2025-05-03 01:00: 0.0405
2025-05-03 09:00: 0.0410
2025-05-03 17:00: 0.0420
2025-05-04 01:00: 0.0415
2025-05-04 09:00: 0.0415
2025-05-04 17:00: 0.0470
2025-05-05 01:00: 0.0455
2025-05-05 09:00: 0.0460
2025-05-05 17:00: 0.0420
2025-05-06 01:00: 0.0415
2025-05-06 09:00: 0.0450
2025-05-06 17:00: 0.0650
2025-05-07 01:00: 0.0720
2025-05-07 09:00: 0.0700
2025-05-07 17:00: 0.0640
2025-05-08 01:00: 0.0565
2025-05-08 09:00: 0.0560
2025-05-08 17:00: 0.0545
2025-05-09 01:00: 0.0635
2025-05-09 09:00: 0.0670
2025-05-09 17:00: 0.0670
2025-05-10 01:00: 0.0590
2025-05-10 09:00: 0.0595
2025-05-10 17:00: 0.0590
2025-05-11 01:00: 0.0605
2025-05-11 09:00: 0.0640
2025-05-11 17:00: 0.0645
2025-05-12 01:00: 0.0645
2025-05-12 09:00: 0.0635
2025-05-12 17:00: 0.0595
2025-05-13 01:00: 0.0590
2025-05-13 09:00: 0.0655
2025-05-13 17:00: 0.0655
2025-05-14 01:00: 0.0650
2025-05-14 09:00: 0.0655
2025-05-14 17:00: 0.0695
2025-05-15 01:00: 0.0670
2025-05-15 09:00: 0.0670
2025-05-15 17:00: 0.0650
2025-05-16 01:00: 0.0640
2025-05-16 09:00: 0.0635
2025-05-16 17:00: 0.0705
2025-05-17 01:00: 0.0720
2025-05-17 09:00: 0.0720
2025-05-17 17:00: 0.0710
2025-05-18 01:00: 0.0695
2025-05-18 09:00: 0.0715
2025-05-18 17:00: 0.0705
Trade Summary: Total trades: 1000000, Buy volume: 289178896.84, Sell volume: 280694126.56, Average price: 0.5856, Price range: 0.0010 - 0.9990

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 527794
Question: Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the first leader out in 2025?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 1593629.46966
Price History:
2025-05-19 14:00: 0.0695
2025-05-19 22:00: 0.0690
2025-05-20 06:00: 0.0675
2025-05-20 14:00: 0.0620
2025-05-20 22:00: 0.0680
2025-05-21 06:00: 0.0635
2025-05-21 14:00: 0.0640
2025-05-21 22:00: 0.0660
2025-05-22 06:00: 0.0660
2025-05-22 14:00: 0.0665
2025-05-22 22:00: 0.0705
2025-05-23 06:00: 0.0670
2025-05-23 14:00: 0.0695
2025-05-23 22:00: 0.0665
2025-05-24 06:00: 0.0665
2025-05-24 14:00: 0.0670
2025-05-24 22:00: 0.0660
2025-05-25 06:00: 0.0660
2025-05-25 14:00: 0.0630
2025-05-25 22:00: 0.0645
2025-05-26 06:00: 0.0600
2025-05-26 14:00: 0.0630
2025-05-26 22:00: 0.0665
2025-05-27 06:00: 0.0610
2025-05-27 14:00: 0.0630
2025-05-27 22:00: 0.0635
2025-05-28 06:00: 0.0630
2025-05-28 14:00: 0.0600
2025-05-28 22:00: 0.0590
2025-05-29 06:00: 0.0615
2025-05-29 14:00: 0.0600
2025-05-29 22:00: 0.0595
2025-05-30 06:00: 0.0600
2025-05-30 14:00: 0.0595
2025-05-30 22:00: 0.0620
2025-05-31 06:00: 0.0605
2025-05-31 14:00: 0.0625
2025-05-31 22:00: 0.0615
2025-06-01 06:00: 0.0575
2025-06-01 14:00: 0.0555
2025-06-01 22:00: 0.0555
2025-06-02 06:00: 0.0590
2025-06-02 14:00: 0.0575
2025-06-02 22:00: 0.0585
2025-06-03 06:00: 0.0545
2025-06-03 14:00: 0.0570
2025-06-03 22:00: 0.0560
2025-06-04 06:00: 0.0545
2025-06-04 14:00: 0.0845
2025-06-04 22:00: 0.0830
Trade Summary: Total trades: 1000000, Buy volume: 289178896.84, Sell volume: 280694126.56, Average price: 0.5856, Price range: 0.0010 - 0.9990

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 527794
Question: Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the first leader out in 2025?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 1593629.46966
Price History:
2025-06-05 19:00: 0.0975
2025-06-06 03:00: 0.0795
2025-06-06 11:00: 0.0840
2025-06-06 19:00: 0.0810
2025-06-07 03:00: 0.0825
2025-06-07 11:00: 0.0920
2025-06-07 19:00: 0.0935
2025-06-08 03:00: 0.0950
2025-06-08 11:00: 0.0875
2025-06-08 19:00: 0.0910
2025-06-09 03:00: 0.0925
2025-06-09 11:00: 0.0790
2025-06-09 19:00: 0.0690
2025-06-10 03:00: 0.0710
2025-06-10 11:00: 0.0755
2025-06-10 19:00: 0.0760
2025-06-11 03:00: 0.0525
2025-06-11 11:00: 0.0690
2025-06-11 19:00: 0.0755
2025-06-12 03:00: 0.0630
2025-06-12 11:00: 0.0595
2025-06-12 19:00: 0.0305
2025-06-13 04:00: 0.0310
2025-06-13 12:00: 0.0460
2025-06-13 20:00: 0.0615
2025-06-14 04:00: 0.0450
2025-06-14 12:00: 0.0470
2025-06-14 20:00: 0.0590
2025-06-15 04:00: 0.0325
2025-06-15 12:00: 0.0375
2025-06-15 20:00: 0.0360
2025-06-16 04:00: 0.0340
2025-06-16 12:00: 0.0355
2025-06-16 20:00: 0.0330
2025-06-17 04:00: 0.0410
2025-06-17 12:00: 0.0355
2025-06-17 20:00: 0.0330
2025-06-18 04:00: 0.0325
2025-06-18 12:00: 0.0445
2025-06-18 20:00: 0.0495
2025-06-19 04:00: 0.0440
2025-06-19 12:00: 0.0410
2025-06-19 20:00: 0.0400
2025-06-20 04:00: 0.0490
2025-06-20 12:00: 0.0355
2025-06-20 20:00: 0.0435
2025-06-21 04:00: 0.0400
2025-06-21 12:00: 0.0925
2025-06-21 20:00: 0.1175
2025-06-22 04:00: 0.1160
Trade Summary: Total trades: 1000000, Buy volume: 289178896.84, Sell volume: 280694126.56, Average price: 0.5856, Price range: 0.0010 - 0.9990

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 527794
Question: Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the first leader out in 2025?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 1593629.46966
Price History:
2025-06-23 01:00: 0.1090
2025-06-23 09:00: 0.0700
2025-06-23 17:00: 0.1050
2025-06-24 01:00: 0.1210
2025-06-24 09:00: 0.1315
2025-06-24 17:00: 0.1265
2025-06-25 01:00: 0.1170
2025-06-25 09:00: 0.0940
2025-06-25 17:00: 0.1170
2025-06-26 01:00: 0.1065
2025-06-26 09:00: 0.0985
2025-06-26 17:00: 0.1170
2025-06-27 01:00: 0.1015
2025-06-27 09:00: 0.1065
2025-06-27 17:00: 0.1115
2025-06-28 01:00: 0.1115
2025-06-28 09:00: 0.1245
2025-06-28 17:00: 0.1140
2025-06-29 01:00: 0.1095
2025-06-29 09:00: 0.1085
2025-06-29 17:00: 0.1100
2025-06-30 01:00: 0.1230
2025-06-30 09:00: 0.1235
2025-06-30 17:00: 0.1310
2025-07-01 01:00: 0.1290
2025-07-01 09:00: 0.1355
2025-07-01 17:00: 0.1275
2025-07-02 01:00: 0.1090
2025-07-02 09:00: 0.1170
2025-07-02 17:00: 0.1135
2025-07-03 01:00: 0.1085
2025-07-03 09:00: 0.1160
2025-07-03 17:00: 0.1005
2025-07-04 01:00: 0.0990
2025-07-04 09:00: 0.0925
2025-07-04 17:00: 0.0875
2025-07-05 01:00: 0.0860
2025-07-05 09:00: 0.0855
2025-07-05 17:00: 0.0815
2025-07-06 01:00: 0.0985
2025-07-06 09:00: 0.0980
2025-07-06 17:00: 0.0840
2025-07-07 01:00: 0.0930
2025-07-07 09:00: 0.0920
2025-07-07 17:00: 0.0880
2025-07-08 01:00: 0.0855
2025-07-08 09:00: 0.0745
2025-07-08 17:00: 0.0650
2025-07-09 01:00: 0.0725
2025-07-09 09:00: 0.0495
Trade Summary: Total trades: 1000000, Buy volume: 289178896.84, Sell volume: 280694126.56, Average price: 0.5856, Price range: 0.0010 - 0.9990

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 527794
Question: Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the first leader out in 2025?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 1593629.46966
Price History:
2025-07-10 06:00: 0.0415
2025-07-10 14:00: 0.0405
2025-07-10 22:00: 0.0415
2025-07-11 06:00: 0.0610
2025-07-11 14:00: 0.0600
2025-07-11 22:00: 0.0620
2025-07-12 06:00: 0.0570
2025-07-12 14:00: 0.0765
2025-07-12 22:00: 0.0745
2025-07-13 06:00: 0.0650
2025-07-13 14:00: 0.0630
2025-07-13 22:00: 0.0685
2025-07-14 06:00: 0.0600
2025-07-14 14:00: 0.0875
2025-07-14 22:00: 0.1100
2025-07-15 06:00: 0.1290
2025-07-15 14:00: 0.1075
2025-07-15 22:00: 0.1005
2025-07-16 06:00: 0.0855
2025-07-16 14:00: 0.0690
2025-07-16 22:00: 0.0370
2025-07-17 06:00: 0.0600
2025-07-17 14:00: 0.0695
2025-07-17 22:00: 0.0675
2025-07-18 06:00: 0.0655
2025-07-18 14:00: 0.0675
2025-07-18 22:00: 0.0505
2025-07-19 06:00: 0.0580
2025-07-19 14:00: 0.0620
2025-07-19 22:00: 0.0615
2025-07-20 06:00: 0.0515
2025-07-20 14:00: 0.0505
2025-07-20 22:00: 0.0650
2025-07-21 06:00: 0.0720
2025-07-21 14:00: 0.0605
2025-07-21 22:00: 0.0550
2025-07-22 06:00: 0.0545
2025-07-22 14:00: 0.0610
2025-07-22 22:00: 0.0565
2025-07-23 05:00: 0.0295
2025-07-23 13:00: 0.0305
2025-07-23 21:00: 0.0320
2025-07-24 05:00: 0.0315
2025-07-24 13:00: 0.0315
2025-07-24 21:00: 0.0315
2025-07-25 05:00: 0.0315
2025-07-25 13:00: 0.0315
2025-07-25 21:00: 0.0310
2025-07-26 05:00: 0.0310
2025-07-26 13:00: 0.0310
Trade Summary: Total trades: 1000000, Buy volume: 289178896.84, Sell volume: 280694126.56, Average price: 0.5856, Price range: 0.0010 - 0.9990

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 527794
Question: Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the first leader out in 2025?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 1593629.46966
Price History:
2025-07-27 10:00: 0.0315
2025-07-27 18:00: 0.0320
2025-07-28 02:00: 0.0325
2025-07-28 10:00: 0.0320
2025-07-28 18:00: 0.0325
2025-07-29 02:00: 0.0325
2025-07-29 10:00: 0.0475
2025-07-29 18:00: 0.0520
2025-07-30 02:00: 0.0480
2025-07-30 10:00: 0.0460
2025-07-30 18:00: 0.0405
2025-07-31 02:00: 0.0445
2025-07-31 10:00: 0.0425
2025-07-31 18:00: 0.0365
2025-08-01 02:00: 0.0425
2025-08-01 10:00: 0.0380
2025-08-01 18:00: 0.0365
2025-08-02 02:00: 0.0340
2025-08-02 10:00: 0.0400
2025-08-02 18:00: 0.0405
2025-08-03 02:00: 0.0410
2025-08-03 10:00: 0.0405
2025-08-03 18:00: 0.0405
2025-08-04 02:00: 0.0405
2025-08-04 10:00: 0.0365
2025-08-04 18:00: 0.0365
2025-08-05 02:00: 0.0370
2025-08-05 10:00: 0.0430
2025-08-05 18:00: 0.0395
2025-08-06 02:00: 0.0420
2025-08-06 10:00: 0.0425
2025-08-06 18:00: 0.0425
2025-08-07 02:00: 0.0425
2025-08-07 10:00: 0.0430
2025-08-07 18:00: 0.9560
2025-08-08 02:00: 0.9570
2025-08-08 10:00: 0.9575
2025-08-08 18:00: 0.9555
2025-08-09 02:00: 0.9530
2025-08-09 10:00: 0.0430
2025-08-09 18:00: 0.0455
2025-08-10 02:00: 0.0490
2025-08-10 10:00: 0.9505
2025-08-10 18:00: 0.9440
2025-08-11 02:00: 0.0500
2025-08-11 10:00: 0.9485
2025-08-11 18:00: 0.0480
2025-08-12 02:00: 0.9595
2025-08-12 10:00: 0.9595
2025-08-12 18:00: 0.0380
Trade Summary: Total trades: 1000000, Buy volume: 289178896.84, Sell volume: 280694126.56, Average price: 0.5856, Price range: 0.0010 - 0.9990

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 527794
Question: Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the first leader out in 2025?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 1593629.46966
Price History:
2025-08-13 15:00: 0.0450
2025-08-13 23:00: 0.9570
2025-08-14 07:00: 0.0380
2025-08-14 15:00: 0.0390
2025-08-14 23:00: 0.0405
2025-08-15 07:00: 0.0415
2025-08-15 15:00: 0.0455
2025-08-15 23:00: 0.0410
2025-08-16 07:00: 0.0415
2025-08-16 15:00: 0.9585
2025-08-16 23:00: 0.9570
2025-08-17 07:00: 0.9585
2025-08-17 15:00: 0.0385
2025-08-17 23:00: 0.0385
2025-08-18 07:00: 0.9615
2025-08-18 15:00: 0.9615
2025-08-18 23:00: 0.0410
2025-08-19 07:00: 0.9550
2025-08-19 15:00: 0.9540
2025-08-19 23:00: 0.9535
2025-08-20 07:00: 0.0455
2025-08-20 15:00: 0.0450
2025-08-20 23:00: 0.9555
2025-08-21 07:00: 0.9590
2025-08-21 15:00: 0.9595
2025-08-21 23:00: 0.0405
2025-08-22 07:00: 0.9590
2025-08-22 15:00: 0.9585
2025-08-22 23:00: 0.0375
2025-08-23 07:00: 0.9590
2025-08-23 15:00: 0.9570
2025-08-23 23:00: 0.9590
2025-08-24 07:00: 0.9575
2025-08-24 15:00: 0.0415
2025-08-24 23:00: 0.9575
2025-08-25 07:00: 0.0415
2025-08-25 15:00: 0.0410
2025-08-25 23:00: 0.9590
2025-08-26 06:00: 0.9570
2025-08-26 14:00: 0.0435
2025-08-26 22:00: 0.0450
2025-08-27 06:00: 0.9565
2025-08-27 14:00: 0.0430
2025-08-27 22:00: 0.0400
2025-08-28 06:00: 0.0390
2025-08-28 14:00: 0.9610
2025-08-28 22:00: 0.9620
2025-08-29 06:00: 0.0385
2025-08-29 14:00: 0.0380
2025-08-29 22:00: 0.0375
Trade Summary: Total trades: 1000000, Buy volume: 289178896.84, Sell volume: 280694126.56, Average price: 0.5856, Price range: 0.0010 - 0.9990

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 527794
Question: Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the first leader out in 2025?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 1593629.46966
Price History:
2025-08-30 19:00: 0.0325
2025-08-31 03:00: 0.9675
2025-08-31 11:00: 0.0365
2025-08-31 19:00: 0.0340
2025-09-01 03:00: 0.9700
2025-09-01 11:00: 0.0275
2025-09-01 19:00: 0.9795
2025-09-02 03:00: 0.9835
2025-09-02 11:00: 0.9800
2025-09-02 19:00: 0.9800
2025-09-03 03:00: 0.0200
2025-09-03 11:00: 0.9820
2025-09-03 19:00: 0.0180
2025-09-04 03:00: 0.9805
2025-09-04 11:00: 0.0195
2025-09-04 19:00: 0.9795
2025-09-05 03:00: 0.0185
2025-09-05 11:00: 0.0170
2025-09-05 19:00: 0.0120
2025-09-06 03:00: 0.0115
2025-09-06 11:00: 0.9935
2025-09-06 19:00: 0.9935
2025-09-07 03:00: 0.9995
2025-09-07 11:00: 0.0005
2025-09-07 19:00: 0.0015
2025-09-08 03:00: 0.0020
2025-09-08 11:00: 0.9985
2025-09-08 19:00: 0.0015
2025-09-09 03:00: 0.0015
2025-09-09 11:00: 0.9980
2025-09-09 19:00: 0.9980
2025-09-10 03:00: 0.0025
2025-09-10 11:00: 0.0025
2025-09-10 19:00: 0.0035
2025-09-11 03:00: 0.9945
2025-09-11 11:00: 0.9980
2025-09-11 19:00: 0.9985
2025-09-12 03:00: 0.9985
2025-09-12 11:00: 0.9985
2025-09-12 19:00: 0.9985
2025-09-13 03:00: 0.0010
2025-09-13 11:00: 0.0040
2025-09-13 19:00: 0.9975
2025-09-14 03:00: 0.9955
2025-09-14 11:00: 0.9985
2025-09-14 19:00: 0.9970
2025-09-15 03:00: 0.9930
2025-09-15 11:00: 0.9965
2025-09-15 19:00: 0.9980
2025-09-16 03:00: 0.0015
Trade Summary: Total trades: 1000000, Buy volume: 289178896.84, Sell volume: 280694126.56, Average price: 0.5856, Price range: 0.0010 - 0.9990

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 527794
Question: Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the first leader out in 2025?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 1593629.46966
Price History:
2025-09-17 00:00: 0.0015
2025-09-17 08:00: 0.0045
2025-09-17 17:00: 0.0040
2025-09-18 01:00: 0.0015
2025-09-18 09:00: 0.0015
2025-09-18 17:00: 0.9985
2025-09-19 01:00: 0.0010
2025-09-19 09:00: 0.0010
2025-09-19 17:00: 0.9995
2025-09-20 01:00: 0.0010
2025-09-20 09:00: 0.0010
2025-09-20 17:00: 0.0010
2025-09-21 01:00: 0.0010
2025-09-21 09:00: 0.9990
2025-09-21 17:00: 0.9985
2025-09-22 01:00: 0.9985
2025-09-22 09:00: 0.0015
2025-09-22 17:00: 0.0020
2025-09-23 01:00: 0.0020
2025-09-23 09:00: 0.0025
2025-09-23 17:00: 0.9975
2025-09-24 01:00: 0.0030
2025-09-24 09:00: 0.9975
2025-09-24 17:00: 0.9985
2025-09-25 01:00: 0.9985
2025-09-25 09:00: 0.9980
2025-09-25 17:00: 0.9980
2025-09-26 01:00: 0.0020
2025-09-26 09:00: 0.0020
2025-09-26 17:00: 0.0015
2025-09-27 01:00: 0.9985
2025-09-27 09:00: 0.0015
2025-09-27 17:00: 0.0010
2025-09-28 01:00: 0.9990
2025-09-28 09:00: 0.9990
2025-09-28 17:00: 0.9990
2025-09-29 01:00: 0.0010
2025-09-29 09:00: 0.0010
2025-09-29 17:00: 0.0010
2025-09-30 01:00: 0.9990
2025-09-30 09:00: 0.9990
2025-09-30 17:00: 0.0010
2025-10-01 01:00: 0.0010
2025-10-01 09:00: 0.0005
2025-10-01 17:00: 0.0005
2025-10-02 01:00: 0.0005
2025-10-02 09:00: 0.9995
2025-10-02 17:00: 0.9995
2025-10-03 01:00: 0.9995
2025-10-03 09:00: 0.0005
Trade Summary: Total trades: 1000000, Buy volume: 289178896.84, Sell volume: 280694126.56, Average price: 0.5856, Price range: 0.0010 - 0.9990

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 527794
Question: Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the first leader out in 2025?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 1593629.46966
Price History:
2025-10-04 06:00: 0.9995
2025-10-04 14:00: 0.9995
2025-10-04 22:00: 0.0005
2025-10-05 06:00: 0.9995
2025-10-05 14:00: 0.9995
2025-10-05 22:00: 0.9995
2025-10-06 06:00: 0.0005
2025-10-06 14:00: 0.0005
2025-10-06 22:00: 0.9995
2025-10-07 06:00: 0.0005
2025-10-07 14:00: 0.0010
2025-10-07 22:00: 0.0005
2025-10-08 06:00: 0.0005
2025-10-08 14:00: 0.9995
2025-10-08 22:00: 0.9990
2025-10-09 06:00: 0.0030
2025-10-09 14:00: 0.0010
2025-10-09 22:00: 0.0010
2025-10-10 06:00: 0.9985
2025-10-10 14:00: 0.0035
2025-10-10 22:00: 0.0040
2025-10-11 06:00: 0.9970
2025-10-11 14:00: 0.9965
2025-10-11 22:00: 0.9985
2025-10-12 06:00: 0.0015
2025-10-12 14:00: 0.0015
2025-10-12 22:00: 0.0155
2025-10-13 06:00: 0.0080
2025-10-13 14:00: 0.9970
2025-10-13 22:00: 0.9985
2025-10-14 06:00: 0.0020
2025-10-14 14:00: 0.9985
2025-10-14 22:00: 0.9985
2025-10-15 06:00: 0.0015
2025-10-15 14:00: 0.0015
2025-10-15 22:00: 0.9985
2025-10-16 06:00: 0.0015
2025-10-16 14:00: 0.0015
2025-10-16 22:00: 0.0015
2025-10-17 06:00: 0.9985
2025-10-17 14:00: 0.9985
2025-10-17 22:00: 0.9985
2025-10-18 06:00: 0.0015
2025-10-18 14:00: 0.0015
2025-10-18 22:00: 0.0010
2025-10-19 06:00: 0.0015
2025-10-19 14:00: 0.0010
2025-10-19 22:00: 0.0005
2025-10-20 06:00: 0.0005
2025-10-20 14:00: 0.0005
Trade Summary: Total trades: 999998, Buy volume: 289176896.84, Sell volume: 280694126.56, Average price: 0.5856, Price range: 0.0010 - 0.9990

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 527794
Question: Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the first leader out in 2025?
Volume: 1593629.46966
Price History:
2025-03-11 18:00: 0.5050
2025-03-12 07:00: 0.9845
2025-03-12 21:00: 0.0170
2025-03-13 10:00: 0.9825
2025-03-14 00:00: 0.0175
2025-03-14 13:00: 0.9825
2025-03-15 03:00: 0.0180
2025-03-15 16:00: 0.9820
2025-03-16 06:00: 0.0180
2025-03-16 19:00: 0.9820
2025-03-17 09:00: 0.0440
2025-03-17 22:00: 0.9585
2025-03-18 12:00: 0.0415
2025-03-19 01:00: 0.9580
2025-03-19 15:00: 0.0415
2025-03-20 04:00: 0.9590
2025-03-20 18:00: 0.0825
2025-03-21 07:00: 0.9215
2025-03-21 21:00: 0.0780
2025-03-22 10:00: 0.9235
2025-03-23 00:00: 0.0735
2025-03-23 13:00: 0.9260
2025-03-24 03:00: 0.0725
2025-03-24 16:00: 0.9310
2025-03-25 06:00: 0.0695
2025-03-25 19:00: 0.9440
2025-03-26 09:00: 0.0595
2025-03-26 22:00: 0.9680
2025-03-27 12:00: 0.0355
2025-03-28 01:00: 0.9655
Trade Summary: Total trades: 1000000, Buy volume: 289178896.84, Sell volume: 280694126.56, Average price: 0.5856, Price range: 0.0010 - 0.9990
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike, wash_trading

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 527794
Question: Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the first leader out in 2025?
Volume: 1593629.46966
Price History:
2025-03-28 23:00: 0.0355
2025-03-29 12:00: 0.9645
2025-03-30 02:00: 0.0325
2025-03-30 15:00: 0.9685
2025-03-31 05:00: 0.0340
2025-03-31 18:00: 0.9610
2025-04-01 08:00: 0.0405
2025-04-01 21:00: 0.9610
2025-04-02 11:00: 0.0420
2025-04-03 00:00: 0.9565
2025-04-03 14:00: 0.0430
2025-04-04 03:00: 0.9560
2025-04-04 17:00: 0.0445
2025-04-05 06:00: 0.9555
2025-04-05 20:00: 0.0440
2025-04-06 09:00: 0.9565
2025-04-06 23:00: 0.0445
2025-04-07 12:00: 0.9560
2025-04-08 02:00: 0.0445
2025-04-08 15:00: 0.9570
2025-04-09 05:00: 0.0445
2025-04-09 18:00: 0.9550
2025-04-10 08:00: 0.0450
2025-04-10 21:00: 0.9550
2025-04-11 11:00: 0.0445
2025-04-12 00:00: 0.9550
2025-04-12 14:00: 0.0445
2025-04-13 03:00: 0.9555
2025-04-13 17:00: 0.0455
2025-04-14 06:00: 0.9590
Trade Summary: Total trades: 1000000, Buy volume: 289178896.84, Sell volume: 280694126.56, Average price: 0.5856, Price range: 0.0010 - 0.9990
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike, wash_trading

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 527794
Question: Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the first leader out in 2025?
Volume: 1593629.46966
Price History:
2025-04-15 04:00: 0.0410
2025-04-15 17:00: 0.9585
2025-04-16 07:00: 0.0390
2025-04-16 20:00: 0.9620
2025-04-17 10:00: 0.0395
2025-04-17 23:00: 0.9605
2025-04-18 13:00: 0.0395
2025-04-19 02:00: 0.9600
2025-04-19 16:00: 0.0390
2025-04-20 05:00: 0.9595
2025-04-20 19:00: 0.0410
2025-04-21 08:00: 0.9560
2025-04-21 22:00: 0.0445
2025-04-22 11:00: 0.9565
2025-04-23 01:00: 0.0440
2025-04-23 14:00: 0.9560
2025-04-24 04:00: 0.0435
2025-04-24 17:00: 0.9570
2025-04-25 07:00: 0.0435
2025-04-25 20:00: 0.9580
2025-04-26 10:00: 0.0435
2025-04-26 23:00: 0.9570
2025-04-27 13:00: 0.0415
2025-04-28 02:00: 0.9565
2025-04-28 16:00: 0.0420
2025-04-29 05:00: 0.9580
2025-04-29 19:00: 0.0415
2025-04-30 08:00: 0.9595
2025-04-30 22:00: 0.0410
2025-05-01 11:00: 0.9600
Trade Summary: Total trades: 1000000, Buy volume: 289178896.84, Sell volume: 280694126.56, Average price: 0.5856, Price range: 0.0010 - 0.9990
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike, wash_trading

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 527794
Question: Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the first leader out in 2025?
Volume: 1593629.46966
Price History:
2025-05-02 09:00: 0.0410
2025-05-02 22:00: 0.9590
2025-05-03 12:00: 0.0415
2025-05-04 01:00: 0.9585
2025-05-04 15:00: 0.0455
2025-05-05 04:00: 0.9545
2025-05-05 18:00: 0.0420
2025-05-06 07:00: 0.9550
2025-05-06 21:00: 0.0710
2025-05-07 10:00: 0.9290
2025-05-08 00:00: 0.0555
2025-05-08 13:00: 0.9460
2025-05-09 03:00: 0.0640
2025-05-09 16:00: 0.9330
2025-05-10 06:00: 0.0590
2025-05-10 19:00: 0.9410
2025-05-11 09:00: 0.0640
2025-05-11 22:00: 0.9355
2025-05-12 12:00: 0.0585
2025-05-13 01:00: 0.9410
2025-05-13 15:00: 0.0645
2025-05-14 04:00: 0.9345
2025-05-14 18:00: 0.0695
2025-05-15 07:00: 0.9330
2025-05-15 21:00: 0.0650
2025-05-16 10:00: 0.9360
2025-05-17 00:00: 0.0720
2025-05-17 13:00: 0.9290
2025-05-18 03:00: 0.0710
2025-05-18 16:00: 0.9295
Trade Summary: Total trades: 1000000, Buy volume: 289178896.84, Sell volume: 280694126.56, Average price: 0.5856, Price range: 0.0010 - 0.9990
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike, wash_trading

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 527794
Question: Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the first leader out in 2025?
Volume: 1593629.46966
Price History:
2025-05-19 14:00: 0.0695
2025-05-20 03:00: 0.9305
2025-05-20 17:00: 0.0625
2025-05-21 06:00: 0.9365
2025-05-21 20:00: 0.0670
2025-05-22 09:00: 0.9345
2025-05-22 23:00: 0.0705
2025-05-23 12:00: 0.9325
2025-05-24 02:00: 0.0665
2025-05-24 15:00: 0.9330
2025-05-25 05:00: 0.0660
2025-05-25 18:00: 0.9355
2025-05-26 08:00: 0.0620
2025-05-26 21:00: 0.9375
2025-05-27 11:00: 0.0630
2025-05-28 00:00: 0.9380
2025-05-28 14:00: 0.0600
2025-05-29 03:00: 0.9395
2025-05-29 17:00: 0.0600
2025-05-30 06:00: 0.9400
2025-05-30 20:00: 0.0595
2025-05-31 09:00: 0.9405
2025-05-31 23:00: 0.0615
2025-06-01 12:00: 0.9445
2025-06-02 02:00: 0.0590
2025-06-02 15:00: 0.9425
2025-06-03 05:00: 0.0545
2025-06-03 18:00: 0.9400
2025-06-04 08:00: 0.0570
2025-06-04 21:00: 0.9145
Trade Summary: Total trades: 1000000, Buy volume: 289178896.84, Sell volume: 280694126.56, Average price: 0.5856, Price range: 0.0010 - 0.9990
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike, wash_trading

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 527794
Question: Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the first leader out in 2025?
Volume: 1593629.46966
Price History:
2025-06-05 19:00: 0.0975
2025-06-06 08:00: 0.9230
2025-06-06 22:00: 0.0790
2025-06-07 11:00: 0.9080
2025-06-08 01:00: 0.0915
2025-06-08 14:00: 0.9100
2025-06-09 04:00: 0.0795
2025-06-09 17:00: 0.9255
2025-06-10 07:00: 0.0675
2025-06-10 20:00: 0.9245
2025-06-11 10:00: 0.0620
2025-06-11 23:00: 0.9260
2025-06-12 13:00: 0.0455
2025-06-13 02:00: 0.9695
2025-06-13 17:00: 0.0455
2025-06-14 06:00: 0.9625
2025-06-14 20:00: 0.0590
2025-06-15 09:00: 0.9685
2025-06-15 23:00: 0.0370
2025-06-16 12:00: 0.9645
2025-06-17 02:00: 0.0375
2025-06-17 15:00: 0.9615
2025-06-18 05:00: 0.0325
2025-06-18 18:00: 0.9520
2025-06-19 08:00: 0.0435
2025-06-19 21:00: 0.9510
2025-06-20 11:00: 0.0390
2025-06-21 00:00: 0.9565
2025-06-21 14:00: 0.0810
2025-06-22 03:00: 0.8855
Trade Summary: Total trades: 1000000, Buy volume: 289178896.84, Sell volume: 280694126.56, Average price: 0.5856, Price range: 0.0010 - 0.9990
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike, wash_trading

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 527794
Question: Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the first leader out in 2025?
Volume: 1593629.46966
Price History:
2025-06-23 01:00: 0.1090
2025-06-23 14:00: 0.8985
2025-06-24 04:00: 0.1110
2025-06-24 17:00: 0.8735
2025-06-25 07:00: 0.1210
2025-06-25 20:00: 0.8935
2025-06-26 10:00: 0.0965
2025-06-26 23:00: 0.8860
2025-06-27 13:00: 0.1115
2025-06-28 02:00: 0.8875
2025-06-28 16:00: 0.1240
2025-06-29 05:00: 0.8925
2025-06-29 19:00: 0.1100
2025-06-30 08:00: 0.8765
2025-06-30 22:00: 0.1315
2025-07-01 11:00: 0.8685
2025-07-02 01:00: 0.1090
2025-07-02 14:00: 0.8905
2025-07-03 04:00: 0.1080
2025-07-03 17:00: 0.8995
2025-07-04 07:00: 0.0845
2025-07-04 20:00: 0.9090
2025-07-05 10:00: 0.0860
2025-07-05 23:00: 0.9015
2025-07-06 13:00: 0.0880
2025-07-07 02:00: 0.9050
2025-07-07 16:00: 0.0880
2025-07-08 05:00: 0.9305
2025-07-08 19:00: 0.0680
2025-07-09 08:00: 0.9555
Trade Summary: Total trades: 1000000, Buy volume: 289178896.84, Sell volume: 280694126.56, Average price: 0.5856, Price range: 0.0010 - 0.9990
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike, wash_trading

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 527794
Question: Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the first leader out in 2025?
Volume: 1593629.46966
Price History:
2025-07-10 06:00: 0.0415
2025-07-10 19:00: 0.9595
2025-07-11 09:00: 0.0430
2025-07-11 22:00: 0.9380
2025-07-12 12:00: 0.0700
2025-07-13 01:00: 0.9280
2025-07-13 15:00: 0.0625
2025-07-14 04:00: 0.9395
2025-07-14 18:00: 0.0970
2025-07-15 07:00: 0.8750
2025-07-15 21:00: 0.1045
2025-07-16 10:00: 0.9670
2025-07-17 00:00: 0.0355
2025-07-17 13:00: 0.9300
2025-07-18 03:00: 0.0680
2025-07-18 16:00: 0.9560
2025-07-19 06:00: 0.0580
2025-07-19 19:00: 0.9375
2025-07-20 09:00: 0.0345
2025-07-20 22:00: 0.9350
2025-07-21 12:00: 0.0605
2025-07-22 01:00: 0.9455
2025-07-22 15:00: 0.0590
2025-07-23 03:00: 0.9795
2025-07-23 17:00: 0.0320
2025-07-24 06:00: 0.9685
2025-07-24 20:00: 0.0315
2025-07-25 09:00: 0.9685
2025-07-25 23:00: 0.0310
2025-07-26 12:00: 0.9685
Trade Summary: Total trades: 1000000, Buy volume: 289178896.84, Sell volume: 280694126.56, Average price: 0.5856, Price range: 0.0010 - 0.9990
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike, wash_trading

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 527794
Question: Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the first leader out in 2025?
Volume: 1593629.46966
Price History:
2025-07-27 10:00: 0.0315
2025-07-27 23:00: 0.9675
2025-07-28 13:00: 0.0325
2025-07-29 02:00: 0.9675
2025-07-29 16:00: 0.0510
2025-07-30 05:00: 0.9540
2025-07-30 19:00: 0.0420
2025-07-31 08:00: 0.9560
2025-07-31 22:00: 0.0440
2025-08-01 11:00: 0.9635
2025-08-02 01:00: 0.0330
2025-08-02 14:00: 0.9595
2025-08-03 04:00: 0.0405
2025-08-03 17:00: 0.9595
2025-08-04 07:00: 0.0390
2025-08-04 20:00: 0.9635
2025-08-05 10:00: 0.0430
2025-08-05 23:00: 0.9615
2025-08-06 13:00: 0.0435
2025-08-07 02:00: 0.9575
2025-08-07 16:00: 0.0425
2025-08-08 05:00: 0.0430
2025-08-08 19:00: 0.9490
2025-08-09 08:00: 0.9530
2025-08-09 22:00: 0.9510
2025-08-10 11:00: 0.9520
2025-08-11 01:00: 0.9500
2025-08-11 14:00: 0.0450
2025-08-12 04:00: 0.0400
2025-08-12 17:00: 0.0390
Trade Summary: Total trades: 1000000, Buy volume: 289178896.84, Sell volume: 280694126.56, Average price: 0.5856, Price range: 0.0010 - 0.9990
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike, wash_trading

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 527794
Question: Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the first leader out in 2025?
Volume: 1593629.46966
Price History:
2025-08-13 15:00: 0.0450
2025-08-14 04:00: 0.9580
2025-08-14 18:00: 0.0400
2025-08-15 07:00: 0.9585
2025-08-15 21:00: 0.0430
2025-08-16 10:00: 0.0410
2025-08-17 00:00: 0.9570
2025-08-17 13:00: 0.9585
2025-08-18 03:00: 0.9615
2025-08-18 16:00: 0.9615
2025-08-19 06:00: 0.0450
2025-08-19 19:00: 0.0465
2025-08-20 09:00: 0.9530
2025-08-20 22:00: 0.0445
2025-08-21 12:00: 0.0400
2025-08-22 01:00: 0.0415
2025-08-22 15:00: 0.9585
2025-08-23 04:00: 0.0390
2025-08-23 18:00: 0.0440
2025-08-24 07:00: 0.0425
2025-08-24 21:00: 0.0420
2025-08-25 10:00: 0.0410
2025-08-25 23:00: 0.0410
2025-08-26 12:00: 0.0440
2025-08-27 02:00: 0.0430
2025-08-27 15:00: 0.9570
2025-08-28 05:00: 0.0385
2025-08-28 18:00: 0.9615
2025-08-29 08:00: 0.0390
2025-08-29 21:00: 0.0390
Trade Summary: Total trades: 1000000, Buy volume: 289178896.84, Sell volume: 280694126.56, Average price: 0.5856, Price range: 0.0010 - 0.9990
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike, wash_trading

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 527794
Question: Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the first leader out in 2025?
Volume: 1593629.46966
Price History:
2025-08-30 19:00: 0.0325
2025-08-31 08:00: 0.9675
2025-08-31 22:00: 0.0335
2025-09-01 11:00: 0.9725
2025-09-02 01:00: 0.0210
2025-09-02 14:00: 0.0180
2025-09-03 04:00: 0.9800
2025-09-03 17:00: 0.0180
2025-09-04 07:00: 0.0195
2025-09-04 20:00: 0.9835
2025-09-05 10:00: 0.9830
2025-09-05 23:00: 0.0090
2025-09-06 13:00: 0.9935
2025-09-07 02:00: 0.0065
2025-09-07 16:00: 0.0005
2025-09-08 05:00: 0.0015
2025-09-08 19:00: 0.0015
2025-09-09 08:00: 0.9985
2025-09-09 22:00: 0.0015
2025-09-10 11:00: 0.9975
2025-09-11 01:00: 0.9960
2025-09-11 14:00: 0.0015
2025-09-12 04:00: 0.9985
2025-09-12 17:00: 0.0015
2025-09-13 07:00: 0.0040
2025-09-13 20:00: 0.9975
2025-09-14 10:00: 0.0015
2025-09-14 23:00: 0.9980
2025-09-15 13:00: 0.0035
2025-09-16 02:00: 0.9985
Trade Summary: Total trades: 1000000, Buy volume: 289178896.84, Sell volume: 280694126.56, Average price: 0.5856, Price range: 0.0010 - 0.9990
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike, wash_trading

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 527794
Question: Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the first leader out in 2025?
Volume: 1593629.46966
Price History:
2025-09-17 00:00: 0.0015
2025-09-17 13:00: 0.9960
2025-09-18 04:00: 0.9985
2025-09-18 17:00: 0.0015
2025-09-19 07:00: 0.0010
2025-09-19 20:00: 0.9995
2025-09-20 10:00: 0.0010
2025-09-20 23:00: 0.9990
2025-09-21 13:00: 0.9985
2025-09-22 02:00: 0.9985
2025-09-22 16:00: 0.0020
2025-09-23 05:00: 0.9980
2025-09-23 19:00: 0.0020
2025-09-24 08:00: 0.9975
2025-09-24 22:00: 0.9985
2025-09-25 11:00: 0.9980
2025-09-26 01:00: 0.0020
2025-09-26 14:00: 0.9985
2025-09-27 04:00: 0.0015
2025-09-27 17:00: 0.9990
2025-09-28 07:00: 0.0010
2025-09-28 20:00: 0.9990
2025-09-29 10:00: 0.0010
2025-09-29 23:00: 0.0010
2025-09-30 13:00: 0.0010
2025-10-01 02:00: 0.0010
2025-10-01 16:00: 0.0005
2025-10-02 05:00: 0.0005
2025-10-02 19:00: 0.9995
2025-10-03 08:00: 0.9995
Trade Summary: Total trades: 1000000, Buy volume: 289178896.84, Sell volume: 280694126.56, Average price: 0.5856, Price range: 0.0010 - 0.9990
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike, wash_trading

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 527794
Question: Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the first leader out in 2025?
Volume: 1593629.46966
Price History:
2025-10-04 06:00: 0.9995
2025-10-04 19:00: 0.9995
2025-10-05 09:00: 0.0005
2025-10-05 22:00: 0.0005
2025-10-06 12:00: 0.0005
2025-10-07 01:00: 0.0005
2025-10-07 15:00: 0.0005
2025-10-08 04:00: 0.0005
2025-10-08 18:00: 0.9995
2025-10-09 07:00: 0.9965
2025-10-09 21:00: 0.0010
2025-10-10 10:00: 0.0055
2025-10-11 00:00: 0.9940
2025-10-11 13:00: 0.0025
2025-10-12 03:00: 0.9985
2025-10-12 16:00: 0.0130
2025-10-13 06:00: 0.0080
2025-10-13 19:00: 0.0070
2025-10-14 09:00: 0.0015
2025-10-14 22:00: 0.0015
2025-10-15 12:00: 0.0015
2025-10-16 01:00: 0.0015
2025-10-16 15:00: 0.0020
2025-10-17 04:00: 0.0015
2025-10-17 18:00: 0.9980
2025-10-18 07:00: 0.0015
2025-10-18 21:00: 0.0010
2025-10-19 10:00: 0.9990
2025-10-20 00:00: 0.0005
2025-10-20 13:00: 0.9995
Trade Summary: Total trades: 999998, Buy volume: 289176896.84, Sell volume: 280694126.56, Average price: 0.5856, Price range: 0.0010 - 0.9990
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike, wash_trading

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 549628
Question: Will the Socialist Party win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 1297463.015764
Price History:
2025-06-03 19:00: 0.0450
2025-06-04 00:00: 0.9970
2025-06-04 06:00: 0.0015
2025-06-04 11:00: 0.9985
2025-06-04 17:00: 0.0015
2025-06-04 22:00: 0.9985
2025-06-05 04:00: 0.0015
2025-06-05 09:00: 0.9985
2025-06-05 15:00: 0.0015
2025-06-05 20:00: 0.9985
2025-06-06 02:00: 0.0015
2025-06-06 07:00: 0.9985
2025-06-06 13:00: 0.0015
2025-06-06 18:00: 0.9985
2025-06-07 00:00: 0.0015
2025-06-07 05:00: 0.9985
2025-06-07 11:00: 0.0015
2025-06-07 16:00: 0.9985
2025-06-07 22:00: 0.0015
2025-06-08 03:00: 0.9985
2025-06-08 09:00: 0.0015
2025-06-08 14:00: 0.9985
2025-06-08 20:00: 0.0015
2025-06-09 01:00: 0.9985
2025-06-09 07:00: 0.0015
2025-06-09 12:00: 0.9985
2025-06-09 18:00: 0.0015
2025-06-09 23:00: 0.9985
2025-06-10 05:00: 0.0015
2025-06-10 10:00: 0.9985
2025-06-10 16:00: 0.0005
2025-06-10 21:00: 0.9995
2025-06-11 03:00: 0.0005
2025-06-11 08:00: 0.9995
2025-06-11 14:00: 0.0005
2025-06-11 19:00: 0.9995
2025-06-12 01:00: 0.0005
2025-06-12 06:00: 0.9995
2025-06-12 12:00: 0.0005
2025-06-12 17:00: 0.9995
2025-06-12 23:00: 0.0005
2025-06-13 05:00: 0.9995
2025-06-13 11:00: 0.0005
2025-06-13 16:00: 0.9995
2025-06-13 22:00: 0.0005
2025-06-14 03:00: 0.9995
2025-06-14 09:00: 0.0005
2025-06-14 14:00: 0.9995
2025-06-14 20:00: 0.0005
2025-06-15 01:00: 0.9995
Trade Summary: Total trades: 1000000, Buy volume: 243989863.78, Sell volume: 196547542.88, Average price: 0.7834, Price range: 0.0010 - 0.9990

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 549628
Question: Will the Socialist Party win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 1297463.015764
Price History:
2025-06-15 11:00: 0.0005
2025-06-15 16:00: 0.9995
2025-06-15 22:00: 0.0005
2025-06-16 03:00: 0.9995
2025-06-16 09:00: 0.0005
2025-06-16 14:00: 0.9995
2025-06-16 20:00: 0.0005
2025-06-17 01:00: 0.9995
2025-06-17 07:00: 0.0005
2025-06-17 12:00: 0.9995
2025-06-17 18:00: 0.0005
2025-06-17 23:00: 0.9995
2025-06-18 05:00: 0.0005
2025-06-18 10:00: 0.9995
2025-06-18 16:00: 0.0005
2025-06-18 21:00: 0.9995
2025-06-19 03:00: 0.0005
2025-06-19 08:00: 0.9995
2025-06-19 14:00: 0.0005
2025-06-19 19:00: 0.9995
2025-06-20 01:00: 0.0005
2025-06-20 06:00: 0.9995
2025-06-20 12:00: 0.0005
2025-06-20 17:00: 0.9995
2025-06-20 23:00: 0.0005
2025-06-21 04:00: 0.9995
2025-06-21 10:00: 0.0005
2025-06-21 15:00: 0.9995
2025-06-21 21:00: 0.0005
2025-06-22 02:00: 0.9995
2025-06-22 08:00: 0.0005
2025-06-22 13:00: 0.9995
2025-06-22 19:00: 0.0005
2025-06-23 00:00: 0.9995
2025-06-23 06:00: 0.0005
2025-06-23 11:00: 0.9995
2025-06-23 17:00: 0.0005
2025-06-23 22:00: 0.9995
2025-06-24 04:00: 0.0005
2025-06-24 09:00: 0.9995
2025-06-24 15:00: 0.0005
2025-06-24 20:00: 0.9995
2025-06-25 02:00: 0.0005
2025-06-25 07:00: 0.9985
2025-06-25 13:00: 0.0015
2025-06-25 18:00: 0.9985
2025-06-26 00:00: 0.0015
2025-06-26 05:00: 0.9985
2025-06-26 11:00: 0.0015
2025-06-26 16:00: 0.9985
Trade Summary: Total trades: 1000000, Buy volume: 243989863.78, Sell volume: 196547542.88, Average price: 0.7834, Price range: 0.0010 - 0.9990

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 549628
Question: Will the Socialist Party win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 1297463.015764
Price History:
2025-06-27 02:00: 0.0015
2025-06-27 07:00: 0.9985
2025-06-27 13:00: 0.0015
2025-06-27 18:00: 0.9985
2025-06-28 00:00: 0.0015
2025-06-28 05:00: 0.9985
2025-06-28 11:00: 0.0015
2025-06-28 16:00: 0.9985
2025-06-28 22:00: 0.0015
2025-06-29 03:00: 0.9985
2025-06-29 09:00: 0.0015
2025-06-29 14:00: 0.9985
2025-06-29 20:00: 0.0015
2025-06-30 01:00: 0.9985
2025-06-30 07:00: 0.0015
2025-06-30 12:00: 0.9985
2025-06-30 18:00: 0.0015
2025-06-30 23:00: 0.9985
2025-07-01 05:00: 0.0015
2025-07-01 10:00: 0.9985
2025-07-01 16:00: 0.0015
2025-07-01 21:00: 0.9985
2025-07-02 03:00: 0.0015
2025-07-02 08:00: 0.9985
2025-07-02 14:00: 0.0015
2025-07-02 19:00: 0.9985
2025-07-03 01:00: 0.0015
2025-07-03 06:00: 0.9985
2025-07-03 12:00: 0.0015
2025-07-03 17:00: 0.9985
2025-07-03 23:00: 0.0015
2025-07-04 04:00: 0.9985
2025-07-04 10:00: 0.0015
2025-07-04 15:00: 0.9985
2025-07-04 21:00: 0.0015
2025-07-05 02:00: 0.9985
2025-07-05 08:00: 0.0015
2025-07-05 13:00: 0.9985
2025-07-05 19:00: 0.0015
2025-07-06 00:00: 0.9985
2025-07-06 06:00: 0.0015
2025-07-06 11:00: 0.9985
2025-07-06 17:00: 0.0015
2025-07-06 22:00: 0.9985
2025-07-07 04:00: 0.0015
2025-07-07 09:00: 0.9985
2025-07-07 15:00: 0.0015
2025-07-07 20:00: 0.9985
2025-07-08 02:00: 0.0015
2025-07-08 07:00: 0.9985
Trade Summary: Total trades: 1000000, Buy volume: 243989863.78, Sell volume: 196547542.88, Average price: 0.7834, Price range: 0.0010 - 0.9990

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 549628
Question: Will the Socialist Party win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 1297463.015764
Price History:
2025-07-08 17:00: 0.0015
2025-07-08 22:00: 0.9985
2025-07-09 04:00: 0.0015
2025-07-09 09:00: 0.9985
2025-07-09 15:00: 0.0015
2025-07-09 20:00: 0.9985
2025-07-10 02:00: 0.0015
2025-07-10 07:00: 0.9985
2025-07-10 13:00: 0.0015
2025-07-10 18:00: 0.9985
2025-07-11 00:00: 0.0015
2025-07-11 05:00: 0.9985
2025-07-11 11:00: 0.0015
2025-07-11 16:00: 0.9985
2025-07-11 22:00: 0.0015
2025-07-12 03:00: 0.9985
2025-07-12 09:00: 0.0015
2025-07-12 14:00: 0.9985
2025-07-12 20:00: 0.0015
2025-07-13 01:00: 0.9985
2025-07-13 07:00: 0.0015
2025-07-13 12:00: 0.9985
2025-07-13 18:00: 0.0015
2025-07-13 23:00: 0.9985
2025-07-14 05:00: 0.0015
2025-07-14 10:00: 0.9985
2025-07-14 16:00: 0.0015
2025-07-14 21:00: 0.9985
2025-07-15 03:00: 0.0015
2025-07-15 08:00: 0.9985
2025-07-15 14:00: 0.0015
2025-07-15 19:00: 0.9985
2025-07-16 01:00: 0.0015
2025-07-16 06:00: 0.9985
2025-07-16 12:00: 0.0015
2025-07-16 17:00: 0.9985
2025-07-16 23:00: 0.0015
2025-07-17 04:00: 0.9985
2025-07-17 10:00: 0.0015
2025-07-17 15:00: 0.9985
2025-07-17 21:00: 0.0015
2025-07-18 02:00: 0.9985
2025-07-18 08:00: 0.0015
2025-07-18 13:00: 0.9985
2025-07-18 19:00: 0.0015
2025-07-19 00:00: 0.9985
2025-07-19 06:00: 0.0015
2025-07-19 11:00: 0.9985
2025-07-19 17:00: 0.0015
2025-07-19 22:00: 0.9985
Trade Summary: Total trades: 1000000, Buy volume: 243989863.78, Sell volume: 196547542.88, Average price: 0.7834, Price range: 0.0010 - 0.9990

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 549628
Question: Will the Socialist Party win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 1297463.015764
Price History:
2025-07-20 08:00: 0.0015
2025-07-20 13:00: 0.9985
2025-07-20 19:00: 0.0015
2025-07-21 00:00: 0.9985
2025-07-21 06:00: 0.0015
2025-07-21 11:00: 0.9985
2025-07-21 17:00: 0.0015
2025-07-21 22:00: 0.9985
2025-07-22 04:00: 0.0015
2025-07-22 09:00: 0.9985
2025-07-22 15:00: 0.0015
2025-07-22 20:00: 0.9985
2025-07-23 01:00: 0.0015
2025-07-23 06:00: 0.9985
2025-07-23 12:00: 0.0015
2025-07-23 17:00: 0.9985
2025-07-23 23:00: 0.0015
2025-07-24 04:00: 0.9985
2025-07-24 10:00: 0.0015
2025-07-24 15:00: 0.9985
2025-07-24 21:00: 0.0015
2025-07-25 02:00: 0.9985
2025-07-25 08:00: 0.0015
2025-07-25 13:00: 0.9985
2025-07-25 19:00: 0.0015
2025-07-26 00:00: 0.9985
2025-07-26 06:00: 0.0015
2025-07-26 11:00: 0.9985
2025-07-26 17:00: 0.0015
2025-07-26 22:00: 0.9985
2025-07-27 04:00: 0.0015
2025-07-27 09:00: 0.9985
2025-07-27 15:00: 0.0015
2025-07-27 20:00: 0.9985
2025-07-28 02:00: 0.0015
2025-07-28 07:00: 0.9985
2025-07-28 13:00: 0.0015
2025-07-28 18:00: 0.9985
2025-07-29 00:00: 0.0015
2025-07-29 05:00: 0.9985
2025-07-29 11:00: 0.0015
2025-07-29 16:00: 0.9985
2025-07-29 22:00: 0.0015
2025-07-30 03:00: 0.9985
2025-07-30 09:00: 0.0015
2025-07-30 14:00: 0.9985
2025-07-30 20:00: 0.0015
2025-07-31 01:00: 0.9985
2025-07-31 07:00: 0.0015
2025-07-31 12:00: 0.9985
Trade Summary: Total trades: 1000000, Buy volume: 243989863.78, Sell volume: 196547542.88, Average price: 0.7834, Price range: 0.0010 - 0.9990

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 549628
Question: Will the Socialist Party win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 1297463.015764
Price History:
2025-07-31 22:00: 0.0015
2025-08-01 03:00: 0.9985
2025-08-01 09:00: 0.0015
2025-08-01 14:00: 0.9985
2025-08-01 20:00: 0.0015
2025-08-02 01:00: 0.9985
2025-08-02 07:00: 0.0015
2025-08-02 12:00: 0.9985
2025-08-02 18:00: 0.0015
2025-08-02 23:00: 0.9985
2025-08-03 05:00: 0.0015
2025-08-03 10:00: 0.9985
2025-08-03 16:00: 0.0015
2025-08-03 21:00: 0.9985
2025-08-04 03:00: 0.0015
2025-08-04 08:00: 0.9985
2025-08-04 14:00: 0.0015
2025-08-04 19:00: 0.9985
2025-08-05 01:00: 0.0015
2025-08-05 06:00: 0.9985
2025-08-05 12:00: 0.0015
2025-08-05 17:00: 0.9985
2025-08-05 23:00: 0.0015
2025-08-06 04:00: 0.9985
2025-08-06 10:00: 0.0015
2025-08-06 15:00: 0.9985
2025-08-06 21:00: 0.0015
2025-08-07 02:00: 0.9985
2025-08-07 08:00: 0.9985
2025-08-07 13:00: 0.9985
2025-08-07 19:00: 0.9985
2025-08-08 00:00: 0.9985
2025-08-08 06:00: 0.9985
2025-08-08 11:00: 0.0015
2025-08-08 17:00: 0.9985
2025-08-08 22:00: 0.0015
2025-08-09 04:00: 0.0015
2025-08-09 09:00: 0.9985
2025-08-09 15:00: 0.0015
2025-08-09 20:00: 0.9985
2025-08-10 02:00: 0.9985
2025-08-10 07:00: 0.9985
2025-08-10 13:00: 0.0015
2025-08-10 18:00: 0.9985
2025-08-11 00:00: 0.0015
2025-08-11 05:00: 0.0015
2025-08-11 11:00: 0.9985
2025-08-11 16:00: 0.9985
2025-08-11 22:00: 0.0015
2025-08-12 03:00: 0.0015
Trade Summary: Total trades: 1000000, Buy volume: 243989863.78, Sell volume: 196547542.88, Average price: 0.7834, Price range: 0.0010 - 0.9990

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 549628
Question: Will the Socialist Party win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 1297463.015764
Price History:
2025-08-12 13:00: 0.9985
2025-08-12 18:00: 0.9985
2025-08-13 00:00: 0.9985
2025-08-13 05:00: 0.9985
2025-08-13 11:00: 0.0015
2025-08-13 16:00: 0.9985
2025-08-13 22:00: 0.0015
2025-08-14 03:00: 0.9985
2025-08-14 09:00: 0.9985
2025-08-14 14:00: 0.0015
2025-08-14 20:00: 0.9985
2025-08-15 01:00: 0.0015
2025-08-15 07:00: 0.0015
2025-08-15 12:00: 0.0025
2025-08-15 18:00: 0.0015
2025-08-15 23:00: 0.0015
2025-08-16 05:00: 0.0015
2025-08-16 10:00: 0.9985
2025-08-16 16:00: 0.0015
2025-08-16 21:00: 0.9985
2025-08-17 03:00: 0.0015
2025-08-17 08:00: 0.0015
2025-08-17 14:00: 0.0015
2025-08-17 19:00: 0.9985
2025-08-18 01:00: 0.0015
2025-08-18 06:00: 0.9985
2025-08-18 12:00: 0.0015
2025-08-18 17:00: 0.9985
2025-08-18 23:00: 0.0015
2025-08-19 04:00: 0.9985
2025-08-19 10:00: 0.9985
2025-08-19 15:00: 0.9985
2025-08-19 21:00: 0.0015
2025-08-20 02:00: 0.9985
2025-08-20 08:00: 0.9985
2025-08-20 13:00: 0.0015
2025-08-20 19:00: 0.0015
2025-08-21 00:00: 0.9985
2025-08-21 06:00: 0.9985
2025-08-21 11:00: 0.0020
2025-08-21 17:00: 0.0020
2025-08-21 22:00: 0.0020
2025-08-22 04:00: 0.0020
2025-08-22 09:00: 0.9980
2025-08-22 15:00: 0.9985
2025-08-22 20:00: 0.9985
2025-08-23 02:00: 0.9985
2025-08-23 07:00: 0.9985
2025-08-23 13:00: 0.0015
2025-08-23 18:00: 0.9985
Trade Summary: Total trades: 1000000, Buy volume: 243989863.78, Sell volume: 196547542.88, Average price: 0.7834, Price range: 0.0010 - 0.9990

Output: Yes