Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 555479
Question: Will Zohran Mamdani’s RCV margin of victory be between 10% and 11% in the New York City Mayoral Democratic Primary?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 718798.564426
Price History:
2025-06-27 03:00: 0.1220
2025-06-27 04:00: 0.1480
2025-06-27 05:00: 0.1540
2025-06-27 06:00: 0.1610
2025-06-27 07:00: 0.1585
2025-06-27 08:00: 0.1365
2025-06-27 09:00: 0.1345
2025-06-27 10:00: 0.1345
2025-06-27 11:00: 0.1350
2025-06-27 12:00: 0.1700
2025-06-27 13:00: 0.1825
2025-06-27 14:00: 0.1870
2025-06-27 15:00: 0.1810
2025-06-27 16:00: 0.1830
2025-06-27 17:00: 0.1860
2025-06-27 18:00: 0.1820
2025-06-27 19:00: 0.1805
2025-06-27 20:00: 0.1805
2025-06-27 21:00: 0.1825
2025-06-27 22:00: 0.1790
2025-06-27 23:00: 0.1465
2025-06-28 00:00: 0.1445
2025-06-28 01:00: 0.1465
2025-06-28 02:00: 0.1485
2025-06-28 03:00: 0.1490
2025-06-28 04:00: 0.1520
2025-06-28 05:00: 0.1560
2025-06-28 06:00: 0.1465
2025-06-28 07:00: 0.1430
2025-06-28 08:00: 0.1350
2025-06-28 09:00: 0.1315
2025-06-28 10:00: 0.1290
2025-06-28 11:00: 0.1295
2025-06-28 12:00: 0.1345
2025-06-28 13:00: 0.1555
2025-06-28 14:00: 0.1540
2025-06-28 15:00: 0.1535
2025-06-28 16:00: 0.1495
2025-06-28 17:00: 0.1495
2025-06-28 18:00: 0.1545
2025-06-28 19:00: 0.1175
2025-06-28 20:00: 0.1175
2025-06-28 21:00: 0.1195
2025-06-28 22:00: 0.1195
2025-06-28 23:00: 0.1140
2025-06-29 00:00: 0.1160
2025-06-29 01:00: 0.1170
2025-06-29 02:00: 0.1125
2025-06-29 03:00: 0.1165
2025-06-29 04:00: 0.1175
Trade Summary: Total trades: 54, Buy volume: 2471.27, Sell volume: 1264.51, Average price: 0.4174, Price range: 0.1028 - 0.8830

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 555479
Question: Will Zohran Mamdani’s RCV margin of victory be between 10% and 11% in the New York City Mayoral Democratic Primary?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 718798.564426
Price History:
2025-06-29 07:00: 0.1020
2025-06-29 08:00: 0.1045
2025-06-29 09:00: 0.1000
2025-06-29 10:00: 0.1015
2025-06-29 11:00: 0.1010
2025-06-29 12:00: 0.0980
2025-06-29 13:00: 0.1000
2025-06-29 14:00: 0.0980
2025-06-29 15:00: 0.0980
2025-06-29 16:00: 0.0975
2025-06-29 17:00: 0.0525
2025-06-29 18:00: 0.0490
2025-06-29 19:00: 0.0485
2025-06-29 20:00: 0.0615
2025-06-29 21:00: 0.0350
2025-06-29 22:00: 0.0435
2025-06-29 23:00: 0.0420
2025-06-30 00:00: 0.0545
2025-06-30 01:00: 0.0505
2025-06-30 02:00: 0.0630
2025-06-30 03:00: 0.0655
2025-06-30 04:00: 0.0640
2025-06-30 05:00: 0.0645
2025-06-30 06:00: 0.0635
2025-06-30 07:00: 0.0655
2025-06-30 08:00: 0.0705
2025-06-30 09:00: 0.0685
2025-06-30 10:00: 0.0670
2025-06-30 11:00: 0.0680
2025-06-30 12:00: 0.0720
2025-06-30 13:00: 0.0765
2025-06-30 14:00: 0.0705
2025-06-30 15:00: 0.0705
2025-06-30 16:00: 0.0745
2025-06-30 17:00: 0.0745
2025-06-30 18:00: 0.0690
2025-06-30 19:00: 0.0615
2025-06-30 20:00: 0.0835
2025-06-30 21:00: 0.0850
2025-06-30 22:00: 0.0850
2025-06-30 23:00: 0.0835
2025-07-01 00:00: 0.0895
2025-07-01 01:00: 0.0945
2025-07-01 02:00: 0.0985
2025-07-01 03:00: 0.0985
2025-07-01 04:00: 0.1000
2025-07-01 05:00: 0.0990
2025-07-01 06:00: 0.0970
2025-07-01 07:00: 0.0975
2025-07-01 08:00: 0.0930
Trade Summary: Total trades: 167, Buy volume: 5786.95, Sell volume: 1513.48, Average price: 0.5871, Price range: 0.0469 - 0.9610

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 555479
Question: Will Zohran Mamdani’s RCV margin of victory be between 10% and 11% in the New York City Mayoral Democratic Primary?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 718798.564426
Price History:
2025-07-01 11:00: 0.0915
2025-07-01 12:00: 0.0835
2025-07-01 13:00: 0.0020
2025-07-01 14:00: 0.0015
2025-07-01 15:00: 0.0015
2025-07-01 16:00: 0.0015
2025-07-01 17:00: 0.0015
2025-07-01 18:00: 0.0015
2025-07-01 19:00: 0.0015
2025-07-01 20:00: 0.0015
2025-07-01 21:00: 0.0015
2025-07-01 22:00: 0.0015
2025-07-01 23:00: 0.0015
2025-07-02 00:00: 0.0015
2025-07-02 01:00: 0.0015
2025-07-02 02:00: 0.0015
2025-07-02 03:00: 0.0015
2025-07-02 04:00: 0.0005
2025-07-02 05:00: 0.0005
2025-07-02 06:00: 0.0005
2025-07-02 07:00: 0.0005
2025-07-02 08:00: 0.0005
2025-07-02 09:00: 0.0005
2025-07-02 10:00: 0.0005
2025-07-02 11:00: 0.0005
2025-07-02 12:00: 0.0005
2025-07-02 13:00: 0.0005
2025-07-02 14:00: 0.0005
2025-07-02 15:00: 0.0005
2025-07-02 16:00: 0.0005
2025-07-02 17:00: 0.0005
2025-07-02 18:00: 0.0005
2025-07-02 19:00: 0.0005
2025-07-02 20:00: 0.0005
2025-07-02 21:00: 0.0005
2025-07-02 22:00: 0.0005
2025-07-02 23:00: 0.0005
2025-07-03 00:00: 0.0005
2025-07-03 01:00: 0.0005
2025-07-03 02:00: 0.0005
2025-07-03 03:00: 0.0005
2025-07-03 04:00: 0.0005
2025-07-03 05:00: 0.0005
2025-07-03 06:00: 0.0005
2025-07-03 07:00: 0.0005
2025-07-03 08:00: 0.0005
2025-07-03 09:00: 0.0005
2025-07-03 10:00: 0.0005
2025-07-03 11:00: 0.0005
2025-07-03 12:00: 0.0005
Trade Summary: Total trades: 258, Buy volume: 30350.92, Sell volume: 12797.67, Average price: 0.7538, Price range: 0.0010 - 0.9990

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 555479
Question: Will Zohran Mamdani’s RCV margin of victory be between 10% and 11% in the New York City Mayoral Democratic Primary?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 718798.564426
Price History:
2025-07-03 15:00: 0.0005
2025-07-03 16:00: 0.0005
2025-07-03 17:00: 0.0005
2025-07-03 18:00: 0.0005
2025-07-03 19:00: 0.0005
2025-07-03 20:00: 0.0005
2025-07-03 21:00: 0.0005
2025-07-03 22:00: 0.0005
2025-07-03 23:00: 0.0005
2025-07-04 00:00: 0.0005
2025-07-04 01:00: 0.0005
2025-07-04 02:00: 0.0005
2025-07-04 03:00: 0.0005
2025-07-04 04:00: 0.0005
2025-07-04 05:00: 0.0005
2025-07-04 06:00: 0.0005
2025-07-04 07:00: 0.0005
2025-07-04 08:00: 0.0005
2025-07-04 09:00: 0.0005
2025-07-04 10:00: 0.0005
2025-07-04 11:00: 0.0005
2025-07-04 12:00: 0.0005
2025-07-04 13:00: 0.0005
2025-07-04 14:00: 0.0005
2025-07-04 15:00: 0.0005
2025-07-04 16:00: 0.0005
2025-07-04 17:00: 0.0005
2025-07-04 18:00: 0.0005
2025-07-04 19:00: 0.0005
2025-07-04 20:00: 0.0005
2025-07-04 21:00: 0.0005
2025-07-04 22:00: 0.0005
2025-07-04 23:00: 0.0005
2025-07-05 00:00: 0.0005
2025-07-05 01:00: 0.0005
2025-07-05 02:00: 0.0005
2025-07-05 03:00: 0.0005
2025-07-05 04:00: 0.0005
2025-07-05 05:00: 0.0005
2025-07-05 06:00: 0.0005
2025-07-05 07:00: 0.0005
2025-07-05 08:00: 0.0005
2025-07-05 09:00: 0.0005
2025-07-05 10:00: 0.0005
2025-07-05 11:00: 0.0005
2025-07-05 12:00: 0.0005
2025-07-05 13:00: 0.0005
2025-07-05 14:00: 0.0005
2025-07-05 15:00: 0.0005
2025-07-05 16:00: 0.0005
Trade Summary: Total trades: 7, Buy volume: 14875.00, Sell volume: 67.43, Average price: 0.1436, Price range: 0.0010 - 0.9990

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 555479
Question: Will Zohran Mamdani’s RCV margin of victory be between 10% and 11% in the New York City Mayoral Democratic Primary?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 718798.564426
Price History:
2025-07-05 19:00: 0.0005
2025-07-05 20:00: 0.0005
2025-07-05 21:00: 0.0005
2025-07-05 22:00: 0.0005
2025-07-05 23:00: 0.0005
2025-07-06 00:00: 0.0005
2025-07-06 01:00: 0.0005
2025-07-06 02:00: 0.0005
2025-07-06 03:00: 0.0005
2025-07-06 04:00: 0.0005
2025-07-06 05:00: 0.0005
2025-07-06 06:00: 0.0005
2025-07-06 07:00: 0.0005
2025-07-06 08:00: 0.0005
2025-07-06 09:00: 0.0005
2025-07-06 10:00: 0.0005
2025-07-06 11:00: 0.0005
2025-07-06 12:00: 0.0005
2025-07-06 13:00: 0.0005
2025-07-06 14:00: 0.0005
2025-07-06 15:00: 0.0005
2025-07-06 16:00: 0.0005
2025-07-06 17:00: 0.0005
2025-07-06 18:00: 0.0005
2025-07-06 19:00: 0.0005
2025-07-06 20:00: 0.0005
2025-07-06 21:00: 0.0005
2025-07-06 22:00: 0.0005
2025-07-06 23:00: 0.0005
2025-07-07 00:00: 0.0005
2025-07-07 01:00: 0.0005
2025-07-07 02:00: 0.0005
2025-07-07 03:00: 0.0005
2025-07-07 04:00: 0.0005
2025-07-07 05:00: 0.0005
2025-07-07 06:00: 0.0005
2025-07-07 07:00: 0.0005
2025-07-07 08:00: 0.0005
2025-07-07 09:00: 0.0005
2025-07-07 10:00: 0.0005
2025-07-07 11:00: 0.0005
2025-07-07 12:00: 0.0005
2025-07-07 13:00: 0.0005
2025-07-07 14:00: 0.0005
2025-07-07 15:00: 0.0005
2025-07-07 16:00: 0.0005
2025-07-07 17:00: 0.0005
2025-07-07 18:00: 0.0005
2025-07-07 19:00: 0.0005
2025-07-07 20:00: 0.0005
Trade Summary: Total trades: 10, Buy volume: 10000.00, Sell volume: 0.00, Average price: 0.0010, Price range: 0.0010 - 0.0010

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 555479
Question: Will Zohran Mamdani’s RCV margin of victory be between 10% and 11% in the New York City Mayoral Democratic Primary?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 718798.564426
Price History:
2025-07-07 23:00: 0.0005
2025-07-08 00:00: 0.0005
2025-07-08 01:00: 0.0005
2025-07-08 02:00: 0.0005
2025-07-08 03:00: 0.0005
2025-07-08 04:00: 0.0005
2025-07-08 05:00: 0.0005
2025-07-08 06:00: 0.0005
2025-07-08 07:00: 0.0005
2025-07-08 08:00: 0.0005
2025-07-08 09:00: 0.0005
2025-07-08 10:00: 0.0005
2025-07-08 11:00: 0.0005
2025-07-08 12:00: 0.0005
2025-07-08 13:00: 0.0005
2025-07-08 14:00: 0.0005
2025-07-08 15:00: 0.0005
2025-07-08 16:00: 0.0005
2025-07-08 17:00: 0.0005
2025-07-08 18:00: 0.0005
2025-07-08 19:00: 0.0005
2025-07-08 20:00: 0.0005
2025-07-08 21:00: 0.0005
2025-07-08 22:00: 0.0005
2025-07-08 23:00: 0.0005
2025-07-09 00:00: 0.0005
2025-07-09 01:00: 0.0005
2025-07-09 02:00: 0.0005
2025-07-09 03:00: 0.0005
2025-07-09 04:00: 0.0005
2025-07-09 05:00: 0.0005
2025-07-09 06:00: 0.0005
2025-07-09 07:00: 0.0005
2025-07-09 08:00: 0.0005
2025-07-09 09:00: 0.0005
2025-07-09 10:00: 0.0005
2025-07-09 11:00: 0.0005
2025-07-09 12:00: 0.0005
2025-07-09 13:00: 0.0005
2025-07-09 14:00: 0.0010
2025-07-09 15:00: 0.0010
2025-07-09 16:00: 0.0010
2025-07-09 17:00: 0.0010
2025-07-09 18:00: 0.0010
2025-07-09 19:00: 0.0010
2025-07-09 20:00: 0.0015
2025-07-09 21:00: 0.0015
2025-07-09 22:00: 0.0015
2025-07-09 23:00: 0.0015
2025-07-10 00:00: 0.0015
Trade Summary: Total trades: 13, Buy volume: 1727.93, Sell volume: 667.40, Average price: 0.6150, Price range: 0.0010 - 0.9990

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 555479
Question: Will Zohran Mamdani’s RCV margin of victory be between 10% and 11% in the New York City Mayoral Democratic Primary?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 718798.564426
Price History:
2025-07-10 03:00: 0.0015
2025-07-10 04:00: 0.0015
2025-07-10 05:00: 0.0015
2025-07-10 06:00: 0.0015
2025-07-10 07:00: 0.0015
2025-07-10 08:00: 0.0015
2025-07-10 09:00: 0.0015
2025-07-10 10:00: 0.0015
2025-07-10 11:00: 0.0015
2025-07-10 12:00: 0.0015
2025-07-10 13:00: 0.0010
2025-07-10 14:00: 0.0010
2025-07-10 15:00: 0.0010
2025-07-10 16:00: 0.0010
2025-07-10 17:00: 0.0010
2025-07-10 18:00: 0.0010
2025-07-10 19:00: 0.0015
2025-07-10 20:00: 0.0015
2025-07-10 21:00: 0.0015
2025-07-10 22:00: 0.0015
2025-07-10 23:00: 0.0015
2025-07-11 00:00: 0.0015
2025-07-11 01:00: 0.0015
2025-07-11 02:00: 0.0015
2025-07-11 03:00: 0.0015
2025-07-11 04:00: 0.0010
2025-07-11 05:00: 0.0010
2025-07-11 06:00: 0.0010
2025-07-11 07:00: 0.0010
2025-07-11 08:00: 0.0010
2025-07-11 09:00: 0.0010
2025-07-11 10:00: 0.0010
2025-07-11 11:00: 0.0005
2025-07-11 12:00: 0.0005
2025-07-11 13:00: 0.0005
2025-07-11 14:00: 0.0005
2025-07-11 15:00: 0.0005
2025-07-11 16:00: 0.0005
2025-07-11 17:00: 0.0005
2025-07-11 18:00: 0.0005
2025-07-11 19:00: 0.0005
2025-07-11 20:00: 0.0005
2025-07-11 21:00: 0.0005
2025-07-11 22:00: 0.0005
2025-07-11 23:00: 0.0005
2025-07-12 00:00: 0.0005
2025-07-12 01:00: 0.0005
2025-07-12 02:00: 0.0010
2025-07-12 03:00: 0.0010
2025-07-12 04:00: 0.0010
Trade Summary: Total trades: 24, Buy volume: 2286.99, Sell volume: 3933.21, Average price: 0.7494, Price range: 0.0010 - 0.9990

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 555479
Question: Will Zohran Mamdani’s RCV margin of victory be between 10% and 11% in the New York City Mayoral Democratic Primary?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 718798.564426
Price History:
2025-07-12 07:00: 0.0010
2025-07-12 08:00: 0.0005
2025-07-12 09:00: 0.0005
2025-07-12 10:00: 0.0005
2025-07-12 11:00: 0.0005
2025-07-12 12:00: 0.0005
2025-07-12 13:00: 0.0005
2025-07-12 14:00: 0.0005
2025-07-12 15:00: 0.0005
2025-07-12 16:00: 0.0005
2025-07-12 17:00: 0.0005
2025-07-12 18:00: 0.0005
2025-07-12 19:00: 0.0005
2025-07-12 20:00: 0.0005
2025-07-12 21:00: 0.0005
2025-07-12 22:00: 0.0005
2025-07-12 23:00: 0.0005
2025-07-13 00:00: 0.0005
2025-07-13 01:00: 0.0005
2025-07-13 02:00: 0.0005
2025-07-13 03:00: 0.0005
2025-07-13 04:00: 0.0005
2025-07-13 05:00: 0.0005
2025-07-13 06:00: 0.0005
2025-07-13 07:00: 0.0005
2025-07-13 08:00: 0.0005
2025-07-13 09:00: 0.0005
2025-07-13 10:00: 0.0010
2025-07-13 11:00: 0.0015
2025-07-13 12:00: 0.0005
2025-07-13 13:00: 0.0005
2025-07-13 14:00: 0.0005
2025-07-13 15:00: 0.0020
2025-07-13 16:00: 0.0005
2025-07-13 17:00: 0.0005
2025-07-13 18:00: 0.0020
2025-07-13 19:00: 0.0005
2025-07-13 20:00: 0.0005
2025-07-13 21:00: 0.0005
2025-07-13 22:00: 0.0005
2025-07-13 23:00: 0.0005
2025-07-14 00:00: 0.0005
2025-07-14 01:00: 0.0005
2025-07-14 02:00: 0.0005
2025-07-14 03:00: 0.0005
2025-07-14 04:00: 0.0005
2025-07-14 05:00: 0.0005
2025-07-14 06:00: 0.0005
2025-07-14 07:00: 0.0005
2025-07-14 08:00: 0.0005
Trade Summary: Total trades: 199, Buy volume: 599591.85, Sell volume: 4923.11, Average price: 0.0111, Price range: 0.0010 - 0.9990

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 555479
Question: Will Zohran Mamdani’s RCV margin of victory be between 10% and 11% in the New York City Mayoral Democratic Primary?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 718798.564426
Price History:
2025-07-14 11:00: 0.0005
2025-07-14 12:00: 0.0005
2025-07-14 13:00: 0.0005
2025-07-14 14:00: 0.0005
2025-07-14 15:00: 0.0005
2025-07-14 16:00: 0.0005
2025-07-14 17:00: 0.0005
2025-07-14 18:00: 0.0005
2025-07-14 19:00: 0.0005
2025-07-14 20:00: 0.0005
2025-07-14 21:00: 0.0005
2025-07-14 22:00: 0.0005
2025-07-14 23:00: 0.0005
2025-07-15 00:00: 0.0005
2025-07-15 01:00: 0.0005
2025-07-15 02:00: 0.0005
2025-07-15 03:00: 0.0005
2025-07-15 04:00: 0.0005
2025-07-15 05:00: 0.0005
2025-07-15 06:00: 0.0005
2025-07-15 07:00: 0.0005
2025-07-15 08:00: 0.0005
2025-07-15 09:00: 0.0020
2025-07-15 10:00: 0.0020
2025-07-15 11:00: 0.0020
2025-07-15 12:00: 0.0020
2025-07-15 13:00: 0.0005
2025-07-15 14:00: 0.0005
2025-07-15 15:00: 0.0005
2025-07-15 16:00: 0.0005
2025-07-15 17:00: 0.0005
2025-07-15 18:00: 0.0005
2025-07-15 19:00: 0.0005
2025-07-15 20:00: 0.0005
2025-07-15 21:00: 0.0005
2025-07-15 22:00: 0.0005
2025-07-15 23:00: 0.0005
2025-07-16 00:00: 0.0005
2025-07-16 01:00: 0.0005
2025-07-16 02:00: 0.0005
2025-07-16 03:00: 0.0005
2025-07-16 04:00: 0.0005
2025-07-16 05:00: 0.0005
2025-07-16 06:00: 0.0005
2025-07-16 07:00: 0.0005
2025-07-16 08:00: 0.0005
2025-07-16 09:00: 0.0005
2025-07-16 10:00: 0.0005
2025-07-16 11:00: 0.0005
2025-07-16 12:00: 0.0005
Trade Summary: Total trades: 7, Buy volume: 4001.00, Sell volume: 5.00, Average price: 0.5713, Price range: 0.0010 - 0.9990

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 555479
Question: Will Zohran Mamdani’s RCV margin of victory be between 10% and 11% in the New York City Mayoral Democratic Primary?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 718798.564426
Price History:
2025-07-16 15:00: 0.0005
2025-07-16 16:00: 0.0005
2025-07-16 17:00: 0.0005
2025-07-16 18:00: 0.0005
2025-07-16 19:00: 0.0005
2025-07-16 20:00: 0.0005
2025-07-16 21:00: 0.0005
2025-07-16 22:00: 0.0005
2025-07-16 23:00: 0.0005
2025-07-17 00:00: 0.0005
2025-07-17 01:00: 0.0005
2025-07-17 02:00: 0.0005
2025-07-17 03:00: 0.0005
2025-07-17 04:00: 0.0005
2025-07-17 05:00: 0.0005
2025-07-17 06:00: 0.0005
2025-07-17 07:00: 0.0005
2025-07-17 08:00: 0.0005
2025-07-17 09:00: 0.0005
2025-07-17 10:00: 0.0005
2025-07-17 11:00: 0.0005
2025-07-17 12:00: 0.0005
2025-07-17 13:00: 0.0005
2025-07-17 14:00: 0.0005
2025-07-17 15:00: 0.0005
2025-07-17 16:00: 0.0005
2025-07-17 17:00: 0.0005
2025-07-17 18:00: 0.0005
2025-07-17 19:00: 0.0005
2025-07-17 20:00: 0.0005
2025-07-17 21:00: 0.0005
2025-07-17 22:00: 0.0005
2025-07-17 23:00: 0.0005
2025-07-18 00:00: 0.0005
2025-07-18 01:00: 0.0005
2025-07-18 02:00: 0.0005
2025-07-18 03:00: 0.0005
2025-07-18 04:00: 0.0005
2025-07-18 05:00: 0.0005
2025-07-18 06:00: 0.0005
2025-07-18 07:00: 0.0005
2025-07-18 08:00: 0.0005
2025-07-18 09:00: 0.0005
2025-07-18 10:00: 0.0005
2025-07-18 11:00: 0.0005
2025-07-18 12:00: 0.0005
2025-07-18 13:00: 0.0005
2025-07-18 14:00: 0.0005
2025-07-18 15:00: 0.0005
2025-07-18 16:00: 0.0005
Trade Summary: Total trades: 2, Buy volume: 1000.00, Sell volume: 108.99, Average price: 0.5000, Price range: 0.0010 - 0.9990

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 555479
Question: Will Zohran Mamdani’s RCV margin of victory be between 10% and 11% in the New York City Mayoral Democratic Primary?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 718798.564426
Price History:
2025-07-18 19:00: 0.0005
2025-07-18 20:00: 0.0005
2025-07-18 21:00: 0.0005
2025-07-18 22:00: 0.0005
2025-07-18 23:00: 0.0005
2025-07-19 00:00: 0.0005
2025-07-19 01:00: 0.0005
2025-07-19 02:00: 0.0005
2025-07-19 03:00: 0.0005
2025-07-19 04:00: 0.0005
2025-07-19 05:00: 0.0005
2025-07-19 06:00: 0.0005
2025-07-19 07:00: 0.0005
2025-07-19 08:00: 0.0005
2025-07-19 09:00: 0.0005
2025-07-19 10:00: 0.0005
2025-07-19 11:00: 0.0005
2025-07-19 12:00: 0.0005
2025-07-19 13:00: 0.0005
2025-07-19 14:00: 0.0005
2025-07-19 15:00: 0.0005
2025-07-19 16:00: 0.0005
2025-07-19 17:00: 0.0005
2025-07-19 18:00: 0.0005
2025-07-19 19:00: 0.0005
2025-07-19 20:00: 0.0005
2025-07-19 21:00: 0.0005
2025-07-19 22:00: 0.0005
2025-07-19 23:00: 0.0005
2025-07-20 00:00: 0.0005
2025-07-20 01:00: 0.0005
2025-07-20 02:00: 0.0005
2025-07-20 03:00: 0.0005
2025-07-20 04:00: 0.0005
2025-07-20 05:00: 0.0005
2025-07-20 06:00: 0.0005
2025-07-20 07:00: 0.0005
2025-07-20 08:00: 0.0005
2025-07-20 09:00: 0.0005
2025-07-20 10:00: 0.0005
2025-07-20 11:00: 0.0005
2025-07-20 12:00: 0.0005
2025-07-20 13:00: 0.0005
2025-07-20 14:00: 0.0005
2025-07-20 15:00: 0.0005
2025-07-20 16:00: 0.0005
2025-07-20 17:00: 0.0005
2025-07-20 18:00: 0.0005
2025-07-20 19:00: 0.0005
2025-07-20 20:00: 0.0005
Trade Summary: Total trades: 4, Buy volume: 4000.00, Sell volume: 0.00, Average price: 0.0010, Price range: 0.0010 - 0.0010

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 555479
Question: Will Zohran Mamdani’s RCV margin of victory be between 10% and 11% in the New York City Mayoral Democratic Primary?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 718798.564426
Price History:
2025-07-20 23:00: 0.0005
2025-07-21 00:00: 0.0005
2025-07-21 01:00: 0.0005
2025-07-21 02:00: 0.0005
2025-07-21 03:00: 0.0005
2025-07-21 04:00: 0.0005
2025-07-21 05:00: 0.0005
2025-07-21 06:00: 0.0005
2025-07-21 07:00: 0.0005
2025-07-21 08:00: 0.0005
2025-07-21 09:00: 0.0005
2025-07-21 10:00: 0.0005
2025-07-21 11:00: 0.0005
2025-07-21 12:00: 0.0005
2025-07-21 13:00: 0.0005
2025-07-21 14:00: 0.0005
2025-07-21 15:00: 0.0005
2025-07-21 16:00: 0.0005
2025-07-21 17:00: 0.0005
2025-07-21 18:00: 0.0005
2025-07-21 19:00: 0.0005
2025-07-21 20:00: 0.0005
2025-07-21 21:00: 0.0005
2025-07-21 22:00: 0.0005
2025-07-21 23:00: 0.0005
2025-07-22 00:00: 0.0005
2025-07-22 01:00: 0.0005
2025-07-22 02:00: 0.0005
2025-07-22 03:00: 0.0005
2025-07-22 04:00: 0.0005
2025-07-22 05:00: 0.0005
2025-07-22 06:00: 0.0005
2025-07-22 07:00: 0.0005
2025-07-22 08:00: 0.0015
2025-07-22 09:00: 0.0015
2025-07-22 10:00: 0.0015
2025-07-22 11:00: 0.0005
2025-07-22 12:00: 0.0005
2025-07-22 13:00: 0.0005
2025-07-22 14:00: 0.0005
2025-07-22 15:00: 0.0005
2025-07-22 16:00: 0.0005
2025-07-22 17:00: 0.0015
2025-07-22 18:00: 0.0005
2025-07-22 19:00: 0.0005
2025-07-22 20:00: 0.0005
2025-07-22 21:00: 0.0005
2025-07-22 22:00: 0.0005
2025-07-22 23:00: 0.0005
2025-07-23 00:00: 0.0005
Trade Summary: Total trades: 4, Buy volume: 4000.00, Sell volume: 0.00, Average price: 0.0010, Price range: 0.0010 - 0.0010

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 555479
Question: Will Zohran Mamdani’s RCV margin of victory be between 10% and 11% in the New York City Mayoral Democratic Primary?
Volume: 718798.564426
Price History:
2025-06-24 23:00: 0.3600
2025-06-25 00:00: 0.7350
2025-06-25 02:00: 0.2600
2025-06-25 03:00: 0.7550
2025-06-25 05:00: 0.2700
2025-06-25 06:00: 0.7300
2025-06-25 08:00: 0.2750
2025-06-25 09:00: 0.7350
2025-06-25 11:00: 0.2550
2025-06-25 12:00: 0.7500
2025-06-25 14:00: 0.2350
2025-06-25 15:00: 0.7650
2025-06-25 17:00: 0.2300
2025-06-25 18:00: 0.7750
2025-06-25 20:00: 0.1350
2025-06-25 21:00: 0.9050
2025-06-25 23:00: 0.0700
2025-06-26 00:00: 0.9515
2025-06-26 02:00: 0.0480
2025-06-26 03:00: 0.9500
2025-06-26 05:00: 0.1035
2025-06-26 06:00: 0.8905
2025-06-26 08:00: 0.1070
2025-06-26 09:00: 0.8945
2025-06-26 11:00: 0.1155
2025-06-26 12:00: 0.8850
2025-06-26 14:00: 0.1085
2025-06-26 15:00: 0.8980
2025-06-26 17:00: 0.1000
2025-06-26 18:00: 0.8870
Trade Summary: Total trades: 297, Buy volume: 9259.85, Sell volume: 3974.98, Average price: 0.4830, Price range: 0.0210 - 0.9790
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike, wash_trading

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 555479
Question: Will Zohran Mamdani’s RCV margin of victory be between 10% and 11% in the New York City Mayoral Democratic Primary?
Volume: 718798.564426
Price History:
2025-06-27 03:00: 0.1220
2025-06-27 04:00: 0.8520
2025-06-27 06:00: 0.1610
2025-06-27 07:00: 0.8415
2025-06-27 09:00: 0.1345
2025-06-27 10:00: 0.8655
2025-06-27 12:00: 0.1700
2025-06-27 13:00: 0.8175
2025-06-27 15:00: 0.1810
2025-06-27 16:00: 0.8170
2025-06-27 18:00: 0.1820
2025-06-27 19:00: 0.8195
2025-06-27 21:00: 0.1825
2025-06-27 22:00: 0.8210
2025-06-28 00:00: 0.1445
2025-06-28 01:00: 0.8535
2025-06-28 03:00: 0.1490
2025-06-28 04:00: 0.8480
2025-06-28 06:00: 0.1465
2025-06-28 07:00: 0.8570
2025-06-28 09:00: 0.1315
2025-06-28 10:00: 0.8710
2025-06-28 12:00: 0.1345
2025-06-28 13:00: 0.8445
2025-06-28 15:00: 0.1535
2025-06-28 16:00: 0.8505
2025-06-28 18:00: 0.1545
2025-06-28 19:00: 0.8825
2025-06-28 21:00: 0.1195
2025-06-28 22:00: 0.8805
Trade Summary: Total trades: 54, Buy volume: 2471.27, Sell volume: 1264.51, Average price: 0.4174, Price range: 0.1028 - 0.8830
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike, wash_trading

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 555479
Question: Will Zohran Mamdani’s RCV margin of victory be between 10% and 11% in the New York City Mayoral Democratic Primary?
Volume: 718798.564426
Price History:
2025-06-29 07:00: 0.1020
2025-06-29 08:00: 0.8955
2025-06-29 10:00: 0.1015
2025-06-29 11:00: 0.8990
2025-06-29 13:00: 0.1000
2025-06-29 14:00: 0.9020
2025-06-29 16:00: 0.0975
2025-06-29 17:00: 0.9475
2025-06-29 19:00: 0.0485
2025-06-29 20:00: 0.9385
2025-06-29 22:00: 0.0435
2025-06-29 23:00: 0.9580
2025-06-30 01:00: 0.0505
2025-06-30 02:00: 0.9370
2025-06-30 04:00: 0.0640
2025-06-30 05:00: 0.9355
2025-06-30 07:00: 0.0655
2025-06-30 08:00: 0.9295
2025-06-30 10:00: 0.0670
2025-06-30 11:00: 0.9320
2025-06-30 13:00: 0.0765
2025-06-30 14:00: 0.9295
2025-06-30 16:00: 0.0745
2025-06-30 17:00: 0.9255
2025-06-30 19:00: 0.0615
2025-06-30 20:00: 0.9165
2025-06-30 22:00: 0.0850
2025-06-30 23:00: 0.9165
2025-07-01 01:00: 0.0945
2025-07-01 02:00: 0.9015
Trade Summary: Total trades: 167, Buy volume: 5786.95, Sell volume: 1513.48, Average price: 0.5871, Price range: 0.0469 - 0.9610
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 555479
Question: Will Zohran Mamdani’s RCV margin of victory be between 10% and 11% in the New York City Mayoral Democratic Primary?
Volume: 718798.564426
Price History:
2025-07-01 11:00: 0.0915
2025-07-01 12:00: 0.9165
2025-07-01 14:00: 0.0015
2025-07-01 15:00: 0.9985
2025-07-01 17:00: 0.0015
2025-07-01 18:00: 0.9985
2025-07-01 20:00: 0.0015
2025-07-01 21:00: 0.9985
2025-07-01 23:00: 0.0015
2025-07-02 00:00: 0.9985
2025-07-02 02:00: 0.0015
2025-07-02 03:00: 0.9985
2025-07-02 05:00: 0.0005
2025-07-02 06:00: 0.9995
2025-07-02 08:00: 0.0005
2025-07-02 09:00: 0.9995
2025-07-02 11:00: 0.0005
2025-07-02 12:00: 0.9995
2025-07-02 14:00: 0.0005
2025-07-02 15:00: 0.9995
2025-07-02 17:00: 0.0005
2025-07-02 18:00: 0.9995
2025-07-02 20:00: 0.0005
2025-07-02 21:00: 0.9995
2025-07-02 23:00: 0.0005
2025-07-03 00:00: 0.9995
2025-07-03 02:00: 0.0005
2025-07-03 03:00: 0.9995
2025-07-03 05:00: 0.0005
2025-07-03 06:00: 0.9995
Trade Summary: Total trades: 258, Buy volume: 30350.92, Sell volume: 12797.67, Average price: 0.7538, Price range: 0.0010 - 0.9990
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike, wash_trading

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 555479
Question: Will Zohran Mamdani’s RCV margin of victory be between 10% and 11% in the New York City Mayoral Democratic Primary?
Volume: 718798.564426
Price History:
2025-07-03 15:00: 0.0005
2025-07-03 16:00: 0.9995
2025-07-03 18:00: 0.0005
2025-07-03 19:00: 0.9995
2025-07-03 21:00: 0.0005
2025-07-03 22:00: 0.9995
2025-07-04 00:00: 0.0005
2025-07-04 01:00: 0.9995
2025-07-04 03:00: 0.0005
2025-07-04 04:00: 0.9995
2025-07-04 06:00: 0.0005
2025-07-04 07:00: 0.9995
2025-07-04 09:00: 0.0005
2025-07-04 10:00: 0.9995
2025-07-04 12:00: 0.0005
2025-07-04 13:00: 0.9995
2025-07-04 15:00: 0.0005
2025-07-04 16:00: 0.9995
2025-07-04 18:00: 0.0005
2025-07-04 19:00: 0.9995
2025-07-04 21:00: 0.0005
2025-07-04 22:00: 0.9995
2025-07-05 00:00: 0.0005
2025-07-05 01:00: 0.9995
2025-07-05 03:00: 0.0005
2025-07-05 04:00: 0.9995
2025-07-05 06:00: 0.0005
2025-07-05 07:00: 0.9995
2025-07-05 09:00: 0.0005
2025-07-05 10:00: 0.9995
Trade Summary: Total trades: 7, Buy volume: 14875.00, Sell volume: 67.43, Average price: 0.1436, Price range: 0.0010 - 0.9990
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 555479
Question: Will Zohran Mamdani’s RCV margin of victory be between 10% and 11% in the New York City Mayoral Democratic Primary?
Volume: 718798.564426
Price History:
2025-07-05 19:00: 0.0005
2025-07-05 20:00: 0.9995
2025-07-05 22:00: 0.0005
2025-07-05 23:00: 0.9995
2025-07-06 01:00: 0.0005
2025-07-06 02:00: 0.9995
2025-07-06 04:00: 0.0005
2025-07-06 05:00: 0.9995
2025-07-06 07:00: 0.0005
2025-07-06 08:00: 0.9995
2025-07-06 10:00: 0.0005
2025-07-06 11:00: 0.9995
2025-07-06 13:00: 0.0005
2025-07-06 14:00: 0.9995
2025-07-06 16:00: 0.0005
2025-07-06 17:00: 0.9995
2025-07-06 19:00: 0.0005
2025-07-06 20:00: 0.9995
2025-07-06 22:00: 0.0005
2025-07-06 23:00: 0.9995
2025-07-07 01:00: 0.0005
2025-07-07 02:00: 0.9995
2025-07-07 04:00: 0.0005
2025-07-07 05:00: 0.9995
2025-07-07 07:00: 0.0005
2025-07-07 08:00: 0.9995
2025-07-07 10:00: 0.0005
2025-07-07 11:00: 0.9995
2025-07-07 13:00: 0.0005
2025-07-07 14:00: 0.9995
Trade Summary: Total trades: 10, Buy volume: 10000.00, Sell volume: 0.00, Average price: 0.0010, Price range: 0.0010 - 0.0010
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 555479
Question: Will Zohran Mamdani’s RCV margin of victory be between 10% and 11% in the New York City Mayoral Democratic Primary?
Volume: 718798.564426
Price History:
2025-07-07 23:00: 0.0005
2025-07-08 00:00: 0.9995
2025-07-08 02:00: 0.0005
2025-07-08 03:00: 0.9995
2025-07-08 05:00: 0.0005
2025-07-08 06:00: 0.9995
2025-07-08 08:00: 0.0005
2025-07-08 09:00: 0.9995
2025-07-08 11:00: 0.0005
2025-07-08 12:00: 0.9995
2025-07-08 14:00: 0.0005
2025-07-08 15:00: 0.9995
2025-07-08 17:00: 0.0005
2025-07-08 18:00: 0.9995
2025-07-08 20:00: 0.0005
2025-07-08 21:00: 0.9995
2025-07-08 23:00: 0.0005
2025-07-09 00:00: 0.9995
2025-07-09 02:00: 0.0005
2025-07-09 03:00: 0.9995
2025-07-09 05:00: 0.0005
2025-07-09 06:00: 0.9995
2025-07-09 08:00: 0.0005
2025-07-09 09:00: 0.9995
2025-07-09 11:00: 0.0005
2025-07-09 12:00: 0.9995
2025-07-09 14:00: 0.0010
2025-07-09 15:00: 0.9990
2025-07-09 17:00: 0.0010
2025-07-09 18:00: 0.9990
Trade Summary: Total trades: 13, Buy volume: 1727.93, Sell volume: 667.40, Average price: 0.6150, Price range: 0.0010 - 0.9990
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike, wash_trading

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 555479
Question: Will Zohran Mamdani’s RCV margin of victory be between 10% and 11% in the New York City Mayoral Democratic Primary?
Volume: 718798.564426
Price History:
2025-07-10 03:00: 0.0015
2025-07-10 04:00: 0.9985
2025-07-10 06:00: 0.0015
2025-07-10 07:00: 0.9985
2025-07-10 09:00: 0.0015
2025-07-10 10:00: 0.9985
2025-07-10 12:00: 0.0015
2025-07-10 13:00: 0.9990
2025-07-10 15:00: 0.0010
2025-07-10 16:00: 0.9990
2025-07-10 18:00: 0.0010
2025-07-10 19:00: 0.9985
2025-07-10 21:00: 0.0015
2025-07-10 22:00: 0.9985
2025-07-11 00:00: 0.0015
2025-07-11 01:00: 0.9985
2025-07-11 03:00: 0.0015
2025-07-11 04:00: 0.9990
2025-07-11 06:00: 0.0010
2025-07-11 07:00: 0.9990
2025-07-11 09:00: 0.0010
2025-07-11 10:00: 0.9990
2025-07-11 12:00: 0.0005
2025-07-11 13:00: 0.9995
2025-07-11 15:00: 0.0005
2025-07-11 16:00: 0.9995
2025-07-11 18:00: 0.0005
2025-07-11 19:00: 0.9995
2025-07-11 21:00: 0.0005
2025-07-11 22:00: 0.9995
Trade Summary: Total trades: 24, Buy volume: 2286.99, Sell volume: 3933.21, Average price: 0.7494, Price range: 0.0010 - 0.9990
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike, wash_trading

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 555479
Question: Will Zohran Mamdani’s RCV margin of victory be between 10% and 11% in the New York City Mayoral Democratic Primary?
Volume: 718798.564426
Price History:
2025-07-12 07:00: 0.0010
2025-07-12 08:00: 0.9995
2025-07-12 10:00: 0.0005
2025-07-12 11:00: 0.9995
2025-07-12 13:00: 0.0005
2025-07-12 14:00: 0.9995
2025-07-12 16:00: 0.0005
2025-07-12 17:00: 0.9995
2025-07-12 19:00: 0.0005
2025-07-12 20:00: 0.9995
2025-07-12 22:00: 0.0005
2025-07-12 23:00: 0.9995
2025-07-13 01:00: 0.0005
2025-07-13 02:00: 0.9995
2025-07-13 04:00: 0.0005
2025-07-13 05:00: 0.9995
2025-07-13 07:00: 0.0005
2025-07-13 08:00: 0.9995
2025-07-13 10:00: 0.0010
2025-07-13 11:00: 0.9985
2025-07-13 13:00: 0.0005
2025-07-13 14:00: 0.9995
2025-07-13 16:00: 0.0005
2025-07-13 17:00: 0.9995
2025-07-13 19:00: 0.0005
2025-07-13 20:00: 0.9995
2025-07-13 22:00: 0.0005
2025-07-13 23:00: 0.9995
2025-07-14 01:00: 0.0005
2025-07-14 02:00: 0.9995
Trade Summary: Total trades: 199, Buy volume: 599591.85, Sell volume: 4923.11, Average price: 0.0111, Price range: 0.0010 - 0.9990
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike, wash_trading

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 555479
Question: Will Zohran Mamdani’s RCV margin of victory be between 10% and 11% in the New York City Mayoral Democratic Primary?
Volume: 718798.564426
Price History:
2025-07-14 11:00: 0.0005
2025-07-14 12:00: 0.9995
2025-07-14 14:00: 0.0005
2025-07-14 15:00: 0.9995
2025-07-14 17:00: 0.0005
2025-07-14 18:00: 0.9995
2025-07-14 20:00: 0.0005
2025-07-14 21:00: 0.9995
2025-07-14 23:00: 0.0005
2025-07-15 00:00: 0.9995
2025-07-15 02:00: 0.0005
2025-07-15 03:00: 0.9995
2025-07-15 05:00: 0.0005
2025-07-15 06:00: 0.9995
2025-07-15 08:00: 0.0005
2025-07-15 09:00: 0.9980
2025-07-15 11:00: 0.0020
2025-07-15 12:00: 0.9980
2025-07-15 14:00: 0.0005
2025-07-15 15:00: 0.9995
2025-07-15 17:00: 0.0005
2025-07-15 18:00: 0.9995
2025-07-15 20:00: 0.0005
2025-07-15 21:00: 0.9995
2025-07-15 23:00: 0.0005
2025-07-16 00:00: 0.9995
2025-07-16 02:00: 0.0005
2025-07-16 03:00: 0.9995
2025-07-16 05:00: 0.0005
2025-07-16 06:00: 0.9995
Trade Summary: Total trades: 7, Buy volume: 4001.00, Sell volume: 5.00, Average price: 0.5713, Price range: 0.0010 - 0.9990
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 555479
Question: Will Zohran Mamdani’s RCV margin of victory be between 10% and 11% in the New York City Mayoral Democratic Primary?
Volume: 718798.564426
Price History:
2025-07-16 15:00: 0.0005
2025-07-16 16:00: 0.9995
2025-07-16 18:00: 0.0005
2025-07-16 19:00: 0.9995
2025-07-16 21:00: 0.0005
2025-07-16 22:00: 0.9995
2025-07-17 00:00: 0.0005
2025-07-17 01:00: 0.9995
2025-07-17 03:00: 0.0005
2025-07-17 04:00: 0.9995
2025-07-17 06:00: 0.0005
2025-07-17 07:00: 0.9995
2025-07-17 09:00: 0.0005
2025-07-17 10:00: 0.9995
2025-07-17 12:00: 0.0005
2025-07-17 13:00: 0.9995
2025-07-17 15:00: 0.0005
2025-07-17 16:00: 0.9995
2025-07-17 18:00: 0.0005
2025-07-17 19:00: 0.9995
2025-07-17 21:00: 0.0005
2025-07-17 22:00: 0.9995
2025-07-18 00:00: 0.0005
2025-07-18 01:00: 0.9995
2025-07-18 03:00: 0.0005
2025-07-18 04:00: 0.9995
2025-07-18 06:00: 0.0005
2025-07-18 07:00: 0.9995
2025-07-18 09:00: 0.0005
2025-07-18 10:00: 0.9995
Trade Summary: Total trades: 2, Buy volume: 1000.00, Sell volume: 108.99, Average price: 0.5000, Price range: 0.0010 - 0.9990
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 555479
Question: Will Zohran Mamdani’s RCV margin of victory be between 10% and 11% in the New York City Mayoral Democratic Primary?
Volume: 718798.564426
Price History:
2025-07-18 19:00: 0.0005
2025-07-18 20:00: 0.9995
2025-07-18 22:00: 0.0005
2025-07-18 23:00: 0.9995
2025-07-19 01:00: 0.0005
2025-07-19 02:00: 0.9995
2025-07-19 04:00: 0.0005
2025-07-19 05:00: 0.9995
2025-07-19 07:00: 0.0005
2025-07-19 08:00: 0.9995
2025-07-19 10:00: 0.0005
2025-07-19 11:00: 0.9995
2025-07-19 13:00: 0.0005
2025-07-19 14:00: 0.9995
2025-07-19 16:00: 0.0005
2025-07-19 17:00: 0.9995
2025-07-19 19:00: 0.0005
2025-07-19 20:00: 0.9995
2025-07-19 22:00: 0.0005
2025-07-19 23:00: 0.9995
2025-07-20 01:00: 0.0005
2025-07-20 02:00: 0.9995
2025-07-20 04:00: 0.0005
2025-07-20 05:00: 0.9995
2025-07-20 07:00: 0.0005
2025-07-20 08:00: 0.9995
2025-07-20 10:00: 0.0005
2025-07-20 11:00: 0.9995
2025-07-20 13:00: 0.0005
2025-07-20 14:00: 0.9995
Trade Summary: Total trades: 4, Buy volume: 4000.00, Sell volume: 0.00, Average price: 0.0010, Price range: 0.0010 - 0.0010
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 555479
Question: Will Zohran Mamdani’s RCV margin of victory be between 10% and 11% in the New York City Mayoral Democratic Primary?
Volume: 718798.564426
Price History:
2025-07-20 23:00: 0.0005
2025-07-21 00:00: 0.9995
2025-07-21 02:00: 0.0005
2025-07-21 03:00: 0.9995
2025-07-21 05:00: 0.0005
2025-07-21 06:00: 0.9995
2025-07-21 08:00: 0.0005
2025-07-21 09:00: 0.9995
2025-07-21 11:00: 0.0005
2025-07-21 12:00: 0.9995
2025-07-21 14:00: 0.0005
2025-07-21 15:00: 0.9995
2025-07-21 17:00: 0.0005
2025-07-21 18:00: 0.9995
2025-07-21 20:00: 0.0005
2025-07-21 21:00: 0.9995
2025-07-21 23:00: 0.0005
2025-07-22 00:00: 0.9995
2025-07-22 02:00: 0.0005
2025-07-22 03:00: 0.9995
2025-07-22 05:00: 0.0005
2025-07-22 06:00: 0.9995
2025-07-22 08:00: 0.0015
2025-07-22 09:00: 0.9985
2025-07-22 11:00: 0.0005
2025-07-22 12:00: 0.9995
2025-07-22 14:00: 0.0005
2025-07-22 15:00: 0.9995
2025-07-22 17:00: 0.0015
2025-07-22 18:00: 0.9995
Trade Summary: Total trades: 4, Buy volume: 4000.00, Sell volume: 0.00, Average price: 0.0010, Price range: 0.0010 - 0.0010
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 555480
Question: Will Zohran Mamdani’s RCV margin of victory be between 11% and 12% in the New York City Mayoral Democratic Primary?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 460144.606652
Price History:
2025-06-24 23:00: 0.2400
2025-06-25 00:00: 0.1900
2025-06-25 01:00: 0.1950
2025-06-25 02:00: 0.1850
2025-06-25 03:00: 0.1850
2025-06-25 04:00: 0.1950
2025-06-25 05:00: 0.2050
2025-06-25 06:00: 0.2050
2025-06-25 07:00: 0.2050
2025-06-25 08:00: 0.1950
2025-06-25 09:00: 0.2050
2025-06-25 10:00: 0.2050
2025-06-25 11:00: 0.2050
2025-06-25 12:00: 0.2050
2025-06-25 13:00: 0.2350
2025-06-25 14:00: 0.2500
2025-06-25 15:00: 0.3300
2025-06-25 16:00: 0.2800
2025-06-25 17:00: 0.2450
2025-06-25 18:00: 0.2350
2025-06-25 19:00: 0.2300
2025-06-25 20:00: 0.2350
2025-06-25 21:00: 0.2350
2025-06-25 22:00: 0.2350
2025-06-25 23:00: 0.2300
2025-06-26 00:00: 0.2300
2025-06-26 01:00: 0.2300
2025-06-26 02:00: 0.2750
2025-06-26 03:00: 0.2600
2025-06-26 04:00: 0.2600
2025-06-26 05:00: 0.2600
2025-06-26 06:00: 0.2850
2025-06-26 07:00: 0.2650
2025-06-26 08:00: 0.2600
2025-06-26 09:00: 0.2550
2025-06-26 10:00: 0.2550
2025-06-26 11:00: 0.2550
2025-06-26 12:00: 0.2550
2025-06-26 13:00: 0.2550
2025-06-26 14:00: 0.2650
2025-06-26 15:00: 0.2300
2025-06-26 16:00: 0.2350
2025-06-26 17:00: 0.2250
2025-06-26 18:00: 0.2250
2025-06-26 19:00: 0.2000
2025-06-26 20:00: 0.2000
2025-06-26 21:00: 0.1850
2025-06-26 22:00: 0.1000
2025-06-26 23:00: 0.1050
2025-06-27 00:00: 0.1050
Trade Summary: No trades available

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 555480
Question: Will Zohran Mamdani’s RCV margin of victory be between 11% and 12% in the New York City Mayoral Democratic Primary?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 460144.606652
Price History:
2025-06-27 03:00: 0.1050
2025-06-27 04:00: 0.1150
2025-06-27 05:00: 0.1100
2025-06-27 06:00: 0.0950
2025-06-27 07:00: 0.0950
2025-06-27 08:00: 0.1100
2025-06-27 09:00: 0.1100
2025-06-27 10:00: 0.1100
2025-06-27 11:00: 0.1150
2025-06-27 12:00: 0.1150
2025-06-27 13:00: 0.1100
2025-06-27 14:00: 0.1100
2025-06-27 15:00: 0.1050
2025-06-27 16:00: 0.1050
2025-06-27 17:00: 0.1050
2025-06-27 18:00: 0.1050
2025-06-27 19:00: 0.0950
2025-06-27 20:00: 0.0950
2025-06-27 21:00: 0.0950
2025-06-27 22:00: 0.0950
2025-06-27 23:00: 0.1000
2025-06-28 00:00: 0.1000
2025-06-28 01:00: 0.1000
2025-06-28 02:00: 0.1000
2025-06-28 03:00: 0.1000
2025-06-28 04:00: 0.1000
2025-06-28 05:00: 0.1000
2025-06-28 06:00: 0.1000
2025-06-28 07:00: 0.1000
2025-06-28 08:00: 0.1000
2025-06-28 09:00: 0.1000
2025-06-28 10:00: 0.1000
2025-06-28 11:00: 0.1000
2025-06-28 12:00: 0.1000
2025-06-28 13:00: 0.1000
2025-06-28 14:00: 0.1000
2025-06-28 15:00: 0.1000
2025-06-28 16:00: 0.1100
2025-06-28 17:00: 0.1100
2025-06-28 18:00: 0.1100
2025-06-28 19:00: 0.1100
2025-06-28 20:00: 0.1100
2025-06-28 21:00: 0.1000
2025-06-28 22:00: 0.1150
2025-06-28 23:00: 0.1100
2025-06-29 00:00: 0.1150
2025-06-29 01:00: 0.1200
2025-06-29 02:00: 0.1200
2025-06-29 03:00: 0.1200
2025-06-29 04:00: 0.1100
Trade Summary: No trades available

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 555480
Question: Will Zohran Mamdani’s RCV margin of victory be between 11% and 12% in the New York City Mayoral Democratic Primary?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 460144.606652
Price History:
2025-06-29 07:00: 0.1150
2025-06-29 08:00: 0.1200
2025-06-29 09:00: 0.1150
2025-06-29 10:00: 0.1150
2025-06-29 11:00: 0.1150
2025-06-29 12:00: 0.1250
2025-06-29 13:00: 0.1250
2025-06-29 14:00: 0.1200
2025-06-29 15:00: 0.1050
2025-06-29 16:00: 0.1050
2025-06-29 17:00: 0.1050
2025-06-29 18:00: 0.0950
2025-06-29 19:00: 0.0950
2025-06-29 20:00: 0.0950
2025-06-29 21:00: 0.0950
2025-06-29 22:00: 0.0950
2025-06-29 23:00: 0.0950
2025-06-30 00:00: 0.0950
2025-06-30 01:00: 0.0950
2025-06-30 02:00: 0.0950
2025-06-30 03:00: 0.1050
2025-06-30 04:00: 0.1050
2025-06-30 05:00: 0.1050
2025-06-30 06:00: 0.1050
2025-06-30 07:00: 0.1050
2025-06-30 08:00: 0.1050
2025-06-30 09:00: 0.1050
2025-06-30 10:00: 0.1050
2025-06-30 11:00: 0.1050
2025-06-30 12:00: 0.1050
2025-06-30 13:00: 0.1050
2025-06-30 14:00: 0.1050
2025-06-30 15:00: 0.1050
2025-06-30 16:00: 0.1050
2025-06-30 17:00: 0.0950
2025-06-30 18:00: 0.0950
2025-06-30 19:00: 0.0950
2025-06-30 20:00: 0.1450
2025-06-30 21:00: 0.1350
2025-06-30 22:00: 0.1350
2025-06-30 23:00: 0.1350
2025-07-01 00:00: 0.1450
2025-07-01 01:00: 0.1550
2025-07-01 02:00: 0.1550
2025-07-01 03:00: 0.1850
2025-07-01 04:00: 0.1550
2025-07-01 05:00: 0.1550
2025-07-01 06:00: 0.1650
2025-07-01 07:00: 0.1650
2025-07-01 08:00: 0.1500
Trade Summary: No trades available

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 555480
Question: Will Zohran Mamdani’s RCV margin of victory be between 11% and 12% in the New York City Mayoral Democratic Primary?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 460144.606652
Price History:
2025-07-01 11:00: 0.1350
2025-07-01 12:00: 0.0950
2025-07-01 13:00: 0.0455
2025-07-01 14:00: 0.0410
2025-07-01 15:00: 0.0435
2025-07-01 16:00: 0.0300
2025-07-01 17:00: 0.0435
2025-07-01 18:00: 0.0535
2025-07-01 19:00: 0.0555
2025-07-01 20:00: 0.0540
2025-07-01 21:00: 0.0555
2025-07-01 22:00: 0.0565
2025-07-01 23:00: 0.0555
2025-07-02 00:00: 0.0655
2025-07-02 01:00: 0.0655
2025-07-02 02:00: 0.0835
2025-07-02 03:00: 0.0720
2025-07-02 04:00: 0.0645
2025-07-02 05:00: 0.0600
2025-07-02 06:00: 0.0560
2025-07-02 07:00: 0.0565
2025-07-02 08:00: 0.0550
2025-07-02 09:00: 0.0550
2025-07-02 10:00: 0.0465
2025-07-02 11:00: 0.0425
2025-07-02 12:00: 0.0290
2025-07-02 13:00: 0.0380
2025-07-02 14:00: 0.0405
2025-07-02 15:00: 0.0415
2025-07-02 16:00: 0.0430
2025-07-02 17:00: 0.0490
2025-07-02 18:00: 0.0415
2025-07-02 19:00: 0.0465
2025-07-02 20:00: 0.0425
2025-07-02 21:00: 0.0440
2025-07-02 22:00: 0.0375
2025-07-02 23:00: 0.0380
2025-07-03 00:00: 0.0390
2025-07-03 01:00: 0.0380
2025-07-03 02:00: 0.0345
2025-07-03 03:00: 0.0300
2025-07-03 04:00: 0.0295
2025-07-03 05:00: 0.0300
2025-07-03 06:00: 0.0300
2025-07-03 07:00: 0.0300
2025-07-03 08:00: 0.0290
2025-07-03 09:00: 0.0350
2025-07-03 10:00: 0.0310
2025-07-03 11:00: 0.0345
2025-07-03 12:00: 0.0295
Trade Summary: No trades available

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 555480
Question: Will Zohran Mamdani’s RCV margin of victory be between 11% and 12% in the New York City Mayoral Democratic Primary?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 460144.606652
Price History:
2025-07-03 15:00: 0.0295
2025-07-03 16:00: 0.0300
2025-07-03 17:00: 0.0295
2025-07-03 18:00: 0.0295
2025-07-03 19:00: 0.0320
2025-07-03 20:00: 0.0325
2025-07-03 21:00: 0.0320
2025-07-03 22:00: 0.0315
2025-07-03 23:00: 0.0325
2025-07-04 00:00: 0.0340
2025-07-04 01:00: 0.0320
2025-07-04 02:00: 0.0310
2025-07-04 03:00: 0.0265
2025-07-04 04:00: 0.0265
2025-07-04 05:00: 0.0265
2025-07-04 06:00: 0.0265
2025-07-04 07:00: 0.0265
2025-07-04 08:00: 0.0265
2025-07-04 09:00: 0.0265
2025-07-04 10:00: 0.0265
2025-07-04 11:00: 0.0250
2025-07-04 12:00: 0.0250
2025-07-04 13:00: 0.0250
2025-07-04 14:00: 0.0250
2025-07-04 15:00: 0.0255
2025-07-04 16:00: 0.0255
2025-07-04 17:00: 0.0255
2025-07-04 18:00: 0.0250
2025-07-04 19:00: 0.0250
2025-07-04 20:00: 0.0295
2025-07-04 21:00: 0.0295
2025-07-04 22:00: 0.0295
2025-07-04 23:00: 0.0295
2025-07-05 00:00: 0.0295
2025-07-05 01:00: 0.0295
2025-07-05 02:00: 0.0295
2025-07-05 03:00: 0.0295
2025-07-05 04:00: 0.0295
2025-07-05 05:00: 0.0285
2025-07-05 06:00: 0.0285
2025-07-05 07:00: 0.0085
2025-07-05 08:00: 0.0115
2025-07-05 09:00: 0.0100
2025-07-05 10:00: 0.0080
2025-07-05 11:00: 0.0085
2025-07-05 12:00: 0.0085
2025-07-05 13:00: 0.0100
2025-07-05 14:00: 0.0100
2025-07-05 15:00: 0.0190
2025-07-05 16:00: 0.0190
Trade Summary: No trades available

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 555480
Question: Will Zohran Mamdani’s RCV margin of victory be between 11% and 12% in the New York City Mayoral Democratic Primary?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 460144.606652
Price History:
2025-07-05 19:00: 0.0125
2025-07-05 20:00: 0.0110
2025-07-05 21:00: 0.0085
2025-07-05 22:00: 0.0085
2025-07-05 23:00: 0.0190
2025-07-06 00:00: 0.0180
2025-07-06 01:00: 0.0215
2025-07-06 02:00: 0.0215
2025-07-06 03:00: 0.0215
2025-07-06 04:00: 0.0210
2025-07-06 05:00: 0.0190
2025-07-06 06:00: 0.0195
2025-07-06 07:00: 0.0245
2025-07-06 08:00: 0.0200
2025-07-06 09:00: 0.0195
2025-07-06 10:00: 0.0195
2025-07-06 11:00: 0.0185
2025-07-06 12:00: 0.0200
2025-07-06 13:00: 0.0200
2025-07-06 14:00: 0.0215
2025-07-06 15:00: 0.0220
2025-07-06 16:00: 0.0200
2025-07-06 17:00: 0.0195
2025-07-06 18:00: 0.0185
2025-07-06 19:00: 0.0205
2025-07-06 20:00: 0.0190
2025-07-06 21:00: 0.0185
2025-07-06 22:00: 0.0190
2025-07-06 23:00: 0.0190
2025-07-07 00:00: 0.0190
2025-07-07 01:00: 0.0185
2025-07-07 02:00: 0.0185
2025-07-07 03:00: 0.0200
2025-07-07 04:00: 0.0190
2025-07-07 05:00: 0.0190
2025-07-07 06:00: 0.0190
2025-07-07 07:00: 0.0235
2025-07-07 08:00: 0.0235
2025-07-07 09:00: 0.0235
2025-07-07 10:00: 0.0235
2025-07-07 11:00: 0.0240
2025-07-07 12:00: 0.0240
2025-07-07 13:00: 0.0240
2025-07-07 14:00: 0.0240
2025-07-07 15:00: 0.0245
2025-07-07 16:00: 0.0245
2025-07-07 17:00: 0.0250
2025-07-07 18:00: 0.0250
2025-07-07 19:00: 0.0225
2025-07-07 20:00: 0.0235
Trade Summary: No trades available

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 555480
Question: Will Zohran Mamdani’s RCV margin of victory be between 11% and 12% in the New York City Mayoral Democratic Primary?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 460144.606652
Price History:
2025-07-07 23:00: 0.0225
2025-07-08 00:00: 0.0270
2025-07-08 01:00: 0.0270
2025-07-08 02:00: 0.0270
2025-07-08 03:00: 0.0270
2025-07-08 04:00: 0.0270
2025-07-08 05:00: 0.0270
2025-07-08 06:00: 0.0270
2025-07-08 07:00: 0.0275
2025-07-08 08:00: 0.0275
2025-07-08 09:00: 0.0285
2025-07-08 10:00: 0.0280
2025-07-08 11:00: 0.0280
2025-07-08 12:00: 0.0470
2025-07-08 13:00: 0.0055
2025-07-08 14:00: 0.0070
2025-07-08 15:00: 0.0030
2025-07-08 16:00: 0.0020
2025-07-08 17:00: 0.0015
2025-07-08 18:00: 0.0030
2025-07-08 19:00: 0.0030
2025-07-08 20:00: 0.0030
2025-07-08 21:00: 0.0020
2025-07-08 22:00: 0.0025
2025-07-08 23:00: 0.0025
2025-07-09 00:00: 0.0025
2025-07-09 01:00: 0.0025
2025-07-09 02:00: 0.0025
2025-07-09 03:00: 0.0025
2025-07-09 04:00: 0.0025
2025-07-09 05:00: 0.0025
2025-07-09 06:00: 0.0015
2025-07-09 07:00: 0.0015
2025-07-09 08:00: 0.0015
2025-07-09 09:00: 0.0015
2025-07-09 10:00: 0.0015
2025-07-09 11:00: 0.0015
2025-07-09 12:00: 0.0015
2025-07-09 13:00: 0.0015
2025-07-09 14:00: 0.0015
2025-07-09 15:00: 0.0015
2025-07-09 16:00: 0.0015
2025-07-09 17:00: 0.0015
2025-07-09 18:00: 0.0015
2025-07-09 19:00: 0.0015
2025-07-09 20:00: 0.0015
2025-07-09 21:00: 0.0015
2025-07-09 22:00: 0.0015
2025-07-09 23:00: 0.0015
2025-07-10 00:00: 0.0015
Trade Summary: No trades available

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 555480
Question: Will Zohran Mamdani’s RCV margin of victory be between 11% and 12% in the New York City Mayoral Democratic Primary?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 460144.606652
Price History:
2025-07-10 03:00: 0.0015
2025-07-10 04:00: 0.0015
2025-07-10 05:00: 0.0015
2025-07-10 06:00: 0.0015
2025-07-10 07:00: 0.0015
2025-07-10 08:00: 0.0015
2025-07-10 09:00: 0.0015
2025-07-10 10:00: 0.0015
2025-07-10 11:00: 0.0015
2025-07-10 12:00: 0.0015
2025-07-10 13:00: 0.0015
2025-07-10 14:00: 0.0015
2025-07-10 15:00: 0.0015
2025-07-10 16:00: 0.0015
2025-07-10 17:00: 0.0015
2025-07-10 18:00: 0.0015
2025-07-10 19:00: 0.0015
2025-07-10 20:00: 0.0015
2025-07-10 21:00: 0.0015
2025-07-10 22:00: 0.0015
2025-07-10 23:00: 0.0015
2025-07-11 00:00: 0.0015
2025-07-11 01:00: 0.0015
2025-07-11 02:00: 0.0015
2025-07-11 03:00: 0.0015
2025-07-11 04:00: 0.0015
2025-07-11 05:00: 0.0015
2025-07-11 06:00: 0.0015
2025-07-11 07:00: 0.0015
2025-07-11 08:00: 0.0015
2025-07-11 09:00: 0.0015
2025-07-11 10:00: 0.0015
2025-07-11 11:00: 0.0015
2025-07-11 12:00: 0.0015
2025-07-11 13:00: 0.0015
2025-07-11 14:00: 0.0015
2025-07-11 15:00: 0.0015
2025-07-11 16:00: 0.0015
2025-07-11 17:00: 0.0015
2025-07-11 18:00: 0.0015
2025-07-11 19:00: 0.0015
2025-07-11 20:00: 0.0015
2025-07-11 21:00: 0.0015
2025-07-11 22:00: 0.0015
2025-07-11 23:00: 0.0015
2025-07-12 00:00: 0.0015
2025-07-12 01:00: 0.0015
2025-07-12 02:00: 0.0015
2025-07-12 03:00: 0.0015
2025-07-12 04:00: 0.0015
Trade Summary: No trades available

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 555480
Question: Will Zohran Mamdani’s RCV margin of victory be between 11% and 12% in the New York City Mayoral Democratic Primary?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 460144.606652
Price History:
2025-07-12 07:00: 0.0015
2025-07-12 08:00: 0.0015
2025-07-12 09:00: 0.0015
2025-07-12 10:00: 0.0015
2025-07-12 11:00: 0.0015
2025-07-12 12:00: 0.0015
2025-07-12 13:00: 0.0015
2025-07-12 14:00: 0.0015
2025-07-12 15:00: 0.0015
2025-07-12 16:00: 0.0015
2025-07-12 17:00: 0.0015
2025-07-12 18:00: 0.0015
2025-07-12 19:00: 0.0015
2025-07-12 20:00: 0.0015
2025-07-12 21:00: 0.0015
2025-07-12 22:00: 0.0015
2025-07-12 23:00: 0.0015
2025-07-13 00:00: 0.0015
2025-07-13 01:00: 0.0015
2025-07-13 02:00: 0.0015
2025-07-13 03:00: 0.0015
2025-07-13 04:00: 0.0015
2025-07-13 05:00: 0.0015
2025-07-13 06:00: 0.0015
2025-07-13 07:00: 0.0015
2025-07-13 08:00: 0.0015
2025-07-13 09:00: 0.0015
2025-07-13 10:00: 0.0015
2025-07-13 11:00: 0.0015
2025-07-13 12:00: 0.0015
2025-07-13 13:00: 0.0015
2025-07-13 14:00: 0.0015
2025-07-13 15:00: 0.0015
2025-07-13 16:00: 0.0015
2025-07-13 17:00: 0.0015
2025-07-13 18:00: 0.0015
2025-07-13 19:00: 0.0015
2025-07-13 20:00: 0.0015
2025-07-13 21:00: 0.0015
2025-07-13 22:00: 0.0015
2025-07-13 23:00: 0.0015
2025-07-14 00:00: 0.0015
2025-07-14 01:00: 0.0015
2025-07-14 02:00: 0.0015
2025-07-14 03:00: 0.0015
2025-07-14 04:00: 0.0015
2025-07-14 05:00: 0.0015
2025-07-14 06:00: 0.0015
2025-07-14 07:00: 0.0015
2025-07-14 08:00: 0.0015
Trade Summary: No trades available

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 555480
Question: Will Zohran Mamdani’s RCV margin of victory be between 11% and 12% in the New York City Mayoral Democratic Primary?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 460144.606652
Price History:
2025-07-14 11:00: 0.0015
2025-07-14 12:00: 0.0015
2025-07-14 13:00: 0.0015
2025-07-14 14:00: 0.0015
2025-07-14 15:00: 0.0015
2025-07-14 16:00: 0.0015
2025-07-14 17:00: 0.0015
2025-07-14 18:00: 0.0015
2025-07-14 19:00: 0.0015
2025-07-14 20:00: 0.0015
2025-07-14 21:00: 0.0015
2025-07-14 22:00: 0.0015
2025-07-14 23:00: 0.0015
2025-07-15 00:00: 0.0015
2025-07-15 01:00: 0.0015
2025-07-15 02:00: 0.0015
2025-07-15 03:00: 0.0015
2025-07-15 04:00: 0.0015
2025-07-15 05:00: 0.0015
2025-07-15 06:00: 0.0015
2025-07-15 07:00: 0.0015
2025-07-15 08:00: 0.0015
2025-07-15 09:00: 0.0015
2025-07-15 10:00: 0.0015
2025-07-15 11:00: 0.0015
2025-07-15 12:00: 0.0015
2025-07-15 13:00: 0.0005
2025-07-15 14:00: 0.0005
2025-07-15 15:00: 0.0005
2025-07-15 16:00: 0.0005
2025-07-15 17:00: 0.0005
2025-07-15 18:00: 0.0005
2025-07-15 19:00: 0.0005
2025-07-15 20:00: 0.0005
2025-07-15 21:00: 0.0005
2025-07-15 22:00: 0.0005
2025-07-15 23:00: 0.0005
2025-07-16 00:00: 0.0005
2025-07-16 01:00: 0.0005
2025-07-16 02:00: 0.0005
2025-07-16 03:00: 0.0005
2025-07-16 04:00: 0.0005
2025-07-16 05:00: 0.0005
2025-07-16 06:00: 0.0005
2025-07-16 07:00: 0.0005
2025-07-16 08:00: 0.0005
2025-07-16 09:00: 0.0005
2025-07-16 10:00: 0.0005
2025-07-16 11:00: 0.0005
2025-07-16 12:00: 0.0005
Trade Summary: No trades available

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 555480
Question: Will Zohran Mamdani’s RCV margin of victory be between 11% and 12% in the New York City Mayoral Democratic Primary?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 460144.606652
Price History:
2025-07-16 15:00: 0.0005
2025-07-16 16:00: 0.0005
2025-07-16 17:00: 0.0005
2025-07-16 18:00: 0.0005
2025-07-16 19:00: 0.0005
2025-07-16 20:00: 0.0005
2025-07-16 21:00: 0.0005
2025-07-16 22:00: 0.0005
2025-07-16 23:00: 0.0005
2025-07-17 00:00: 0.0005
2025-07-17 01:00: 0.0005
2025-07-17 02:00: 0.0005
2025-07-17 03:00: 0.0005
2025-07-17 04:00: 0.0005
2025-07-17 05:00: 0.0005
2025-07-17 06:00: 0.0005
2025-07-17 07:00: 0.0005
2025-07-17 08:00: 0.0005
2025-07-17 09:00: 0.0005
2025-07-17 10:00: 0.0005
2025-07-17 11:00: 0.0005
2025-07-17 12:00: 0.0005
2025-07-17 13:00: 0.0005
2025-07-17 14:00: 0.0005
2025-07-17 15:00: 0.0005
2025-07-17 16:00: 0.0005
2025-07-17 17:00: 0.0005
2025-07-17 18:00: 0.0005
2025-07-17 19:00: 0.0005
2025-07-17 20:00: 0.0005
2025-07-17 21:00: 0.0005
2025-07-17 22:00: 0.0005
2025-07-17 23:00: 0.0005
2025-07-18 00:00: 0.0005
2025-07-18 01:00: 0.0005
2025-07-18 02:00: 0.0005
2025-07-18 03:00: 0.0005
2025-07-18 04:00: 0.0005
2025-07-18 05:00: 0.0005
2025-07-18 06:00: 0.0005
2025-07-18 07:00: 0.0005
2025-07-18 08:00: 0.0005
2025-07-18 09:00: 0.0005
2025-07-18 10:00: 0.0005
2025-07-18 11:00: 0.0005
2025-07-18 12:00: 0.0005
2025-07-18 13:00: 0.0005
2025-07-18 14:00: 0.0005
2025-07-18 15:00: 0.0005
2025-07-18 16:00: 0.0005
Trade Summary: No trades available

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 555480
Question: Will Zohran Mamdani’s RCV margin of victory be between 11% and 12% in the New York City Mayoral Democratic Primary?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 460144.606652
Price History:
2025-07-18 19:00: 0.0005
2025-07-18 20:00: 0.0005
2025-07-18 21:00: 0.0005
2025-07-18 22:00: 0.0005
2025-07-18 23:00: 0.0005
2025-07-19 00:00: 0.0005
2025-07-19 01:00: 0.0005
2025-07-19 02:00: 0.0005
2025-07-19 03:00: 0.0005
2025-07-19 04:00: 0.0005
2025-07-19 05:00: 0.0005
2025-07-19 06:00: 0.0005
2025-07-19 07:00: 0.0005
2025-07-19 08:00: 0.0005
2025-07-19 09:00: 0.0005
2025-07-19 10:00: 0.0005
2025-07-19 11:00: 0.0005
2025-07-19 12:00: 0.0005
2025-07-19 13:00: 0.0005
2025-07-19 14:00: 0.0005
2025-07-19 15:00: 0.0005
2025-07-19 16:00: 0.0005
2025-07-19 17:00: 0.0005
2025-07-19 18:00: 0.0005
2025-07-19 19:00: 0.0005
2025-07-19 20:00: 0.0005
2025-07-19 21:00: 0.0005
2025-07-19 22:00: 0.0005
2025-07-19 23:00: 0.0005
2025-07-20 00:00: 0.0005
2025-07-20 01:00: 0.0005
2025-07-20 02:00: 0.0005
2025-07-20 03:00: 0.0005
2025-07-20 04:00: 0.0005
2025-07-20 05:00: 0.0005
2025-07-20 06:00: 0.0005
2025-07-20 07:00: 0.0005
2025-07-20 08:00: 0.0005
2025-07-20 09:00: 0.0005
2025-07-20 10:00: 0.0005
2025-07-20 11:00: 0.0005
2025-07-20 12:00: 0.0010
2025-07-20 13:00: 0.0010
2025-07-20 14:00: 0.0010
2025-07-20 15:00: 0.0010
2025-07-20 16:00: 0.0010
2025-07-20 17:00: 0.0010
2025-07-20 18:00: 0.0010
2025-07-20 19:00: 0.0010
2025-07-20 20:00: 0.0010
Trade Summary: No trades available

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 555480
Question: Will Zohran Mamdani’s RCV margin of victory be between 11% and 12% in the New York City Mayoral Democratic Primary?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 460144.606652
Price History:
2025-07-20 23:00: 0.0010
2025-07-21 00:00: 0.0010
2025-07-21 01:00: 0.0010
2025-07-21 02:00: 0.0010
2025-07-21 03:00: 0.0010
2025-07-21 04:00: 0.0010
2025-07-21 05:00: 0.0010
2025-07-21 06:00: 0.0015
2025-07-21 07:00: 0.0015
2025-07-21 08:00: 0.0015
2025-07-21 09:00: 0.0015
2025-07-21 10:00: 0.0005
2025-07-21 11:00: 0.0005
2025-07-21 12:00: 0.0005
2025-07-21 13:00: 0.0005
2025-07-21 14:00: 0.0005
2025-07-21 15:00: 0.0005
2025-07-21 16:00: 0.0005
2025-07-21 17:00: 0.0005
2025-07-21 18:00: 0.0005
2025-07-21 19:00: 0.0005
2025-07-21 20:00: 0.0005
2025-07-21 21:00: 0.0005
2025-07-21 22:00: 0.0005
2025-07-21 23:00: 0.0005
2025-07-22 00:00: 0.0005
2025-07-22 01:00: 0.0005
2025-07-22 02:00: 0.0005
2025-07-22 03:00: 0.0005
2025-07-22 04:00: 0.0005
2025-07-22 05:00: 0.0005
2025-07-22 06:00: 0.0005
2025-07-22 07:00: 0.0005
2025-07-22 08:00: 0.0005
2025-07-22 09:00: 0.0005
2025-07-22 10:00: 0.0005
2025-07-22 11:00: 0.0005
2025-07-22 12:00: 0.0005
2025-07-22 13:00: 0.0005
2025-07-22 14:00: 0.0005
2025-07-22 15:00: 0.0005
2025-07-22 16:00: 0.0005
2025-07-22 17:00: 0.0005
2025-07-22 18:00: 0.0010
2025-07-22 19:00: 0.0005
2025-07-22 20:00: 0.0005
2025-07-22 21:00: 0.0005
2025-07-22 22:00: 0.0005
2025-07-22 23:00: 0.0005
2025-07-23 00:00: 0.0005
Trade Summary: No trades available

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 555480
Question: Will Zohran Mamdani’s RCV margin of victory be between 11% and 12% in the New York City Mayoral Democratic Primary?
Volume: 460144.606652
Price History:
2025-06-24 23:00: 0.2400
2025-06-25 00:00: 0.8100
2025-06-25 02:00: 0.1850
2025-06-25 03:00: 0.8150
2025-06-25 05:00: 0.2050
2025-06-25 06:00: 0.7950
2025-06-25 08:00: 0.1950
2025-06-25 09:00: 0.7950
2025-06-25 11:00: 0.2050
2025-06-25 12:00: 0.7950
2025-06-25 14:00: 0.2500
2025-06-25 15:00: 0.6700
2025-06-25 17:00: 0.2450
2025-06-25 18:00: 0.7650
2025-06-25 20:00: 0.2350
2025-06-25 21:00: 0.7650
2025-06-25 23:00: 0.2300
2025-06-26 00:00: 0.7700
2025-06-26 02:00: 0.2750
2025-06-26 03:00: 0.7400
2025-06-26 05:00: 0.2600
2025-06-26 06:00: 0.7150
2025-06-26 08:00: 0.2600
2025-06-26 09:00: 0.7450
2025-06-26 11:00: 0.2550
2025-06-26 12:00: 0.7450
2025-06-26 14:00: 0.2650
2025-06-26 15:00: 0.7700
2025-06-26 17:00: 0.2250
2025-06-26 18:00: 0.7750
Trade Summary: No trades available
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 555480
Question: Will Zohran Mamdani’s RCV margin of victory be between 11% and 12% in the New York City Mayoral Democratic Primary?
Volume: 460144.606652
Price History:
2025-06-27 03:00: 0.1050
2025-06-27 04:00: 0.8850
2025-06-27 06:00: 0.0950
2025-06-27 07:00: 0.9050
2025-06-27 09:00: 0.1100
2025-06-27 10:00: 0.8900
2025-06-27 12:00: 0.1150
2025-06-27 13:00: 0.8900
2025-06-27 15:00: 0.1050
2025-06-27 16:00: 0.8950
2025-06-27 18:00: 0.1050
2025-06-27 19:00: 0.9050
2025-06-27 21:00: 0.0950
2025-06-27 22:00: 0.9050
2025-06-28 00:00: 0.1000
2025-06-28 01:00: 0.9000
2025-06-28 03:00: 0.1000
2025-06-28 04:00: 0.9000
2025-06-28 06:00: 0.1000
2025-06-28 07:00: 0.9000
2025-06-28 09:00: 0.1000
2025-06-28 10:00: 0.9000
2025-06-28 12:00: 0.1000
2025-06-28 13:00: 0.9000
2025-06-28 15:00: 0.1000
2025-06-28 16:00: 0.8900
2025-06-28 18:00: 0.1100
2025-06-28 19:00: 0.8900
2025-06-28 21:00: 0.1000
2025-06-28 22:00: 0.8850
Trade Summary: No trades available
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 555480
Question: Will Zohran Mamdani’s RCV margin of victory be between 11% and 12% in the New York City Mayoral Democratic Primary?
Volume: 460144.606652
Price History:
2025-06-29 07:00: 0.1150
2025-06-29 08:00: 0.8800
2025-06-29 10:00: 0.1150
2025-06-29 11:00: 0.8850
2025-06-29 13:00: 0.1250
2025-06-29 14:00: 0.8800
2025-06-29 16:00: 0.1050
2025-06-29 17:00: 0.8950
2025-06-29 19:00: 0.0950
2025-06-29 20:00: 0.9050
2025-06-29 22:00: 0.0950
2025-06-29 23:00: 0.9050
2025-06-30 01:00: 0.0950
2025-06-30 02:00: 0.9050
2025-06-30 04:00: 0.1050
2025-06-30 05:00: 0.8950
2025-06-30 07:00: 0.1050
2025-06-30 08:00: 0.8950
2025-06-30 10:00: 0.1050
2025-06-30 11:00: 0.8950
2025-06-30 13:00: 0.1050
2025-06-30 14:00: 0.8950
2025-06-30 16:00: 0.1050
2025-06-30 17:00: 0.9050
2025-06-30 19:00: 0.0950
2025-06-30 20:00: 0.8550
2025-06-30 22:00: 0.1350
2025-06-30 23:00: 0.8650
2025-07-01 01:00: 0.1550
2025-07-01 02:00: 0.8450
Trade Summary: No trades available
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 555480
Question: Will Zohran Mamdani’s RCV margin of victory be between 11% and 12% in the New York City Mayoral Democratic Primary?
Volume: 460144.606652
Price History:
2025-07-01 11:00: 0.1350
2025-07-01 12:00: 0.9050
2025-07-01 14:00: 0.0410
2025-07-01 15:00: 0.9565
2025-07-01 17:00: 0.0435
2025-07-01 18:00: 0.9465
2025-07-01 20:00: 0.0540
2025-07-01 21:00: 0.9445
2025-07-01 23:00: 0.0555
2025-07-02 00:00: 0.9345
2025-07-02 02:00: 0.0835
2025-07-02 03:00: 0.9280
2025-07-02 05:00: 0.0600
2025-07-02 06:00: 0.9440
2025-07-02 08:00: 0.0550
2025-07-02 09:00: 0.9450
2025-07-02 11:00: 0.0425
2025-07-02 12:00: 0.9710
2025-07-02 14:00: 0.0405
2025-07-02 15:00: 0.9585
2025-07-02 17:00: 0.0490
2025-07-02 18:00: 0.9585
2025-07-02 20:00: 0.0425
2025-07-02 21:00: 0.9560
2025-07-02 23:00: 0.0380
2025-07-03 00:00: 0.9610
2025-07-03 02:00: 0.0345
2025-07-03 03:00: 0.9700
2025-07-03 05:00: 0.0300
2025-07-03 06:00: 0.9700
Trade Summary: No trades available
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 555480
Question: Will Zohran Mamdani’s RCV margin of victory be between 11% and 12% in the New York City Mayoral Democratic Primary?
Volume: 460144.606652
Price History:
2025-07-03 15:00: 0.0295
2025-07-03 16:00: 0.9700
2025-07-03 18:00: 0.0295
2025-07-03 19:00: 0.9680
2025-07-03 21:00: 0.0320
2025-07-03 22:00: 0.9685
2025-07-04 00:00: 0.0340
2025-07-04 01:00: 0.9680
2025-07-04 03:00: 0.0265
2025-07-04 04:00: 0.9735
2025-07-04 06:00: 0.0265
2025-07-04 07:00: 0.9735
2025-07-04 09:00: 0.0265
2025-07-04 10:00: 0.9735
2025-07-04 12:00: 0.0250
2025-07-04 13:00: 0.9750
2025-07-04 15:00: 0.0255
2025-07-04 16:00: 0.9745
2025-07-04 18:00: 0.0250
2025-07-04 19:00: 0.9750
2025-07-04 21:00: 0.0295
2025-07-04 22:00: 0.9705
2025-07-05 00:00: 0.0295
2025-07-05 01:00: 0.9705
2025-07-05 03:00: 0.0295
2025-07-05 04:00: 0.9705
2025-07-05 06:00: 0.0285
2025-07-05 07:00: 0.9915
2025-07-05 09:00: 0.0100
2025-07-05 10:00: 0.9920
Trade Summary: No trades available
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 555480
Question: Will Zohran Mamdani’s RCV margin of victory be between 11% and 12% in the New York City Mayoral Democratic Primary?
Volume: 460144.606652
Price History:
2025-07-05 19:00: 0.0125
2025-07-05 20:00: 0.9890
2025-07-05 22:00: 0.0085
2025-07-05 23:00: 0.9810
2025-07-06 01:00: 0.0215
2025-07-06 02:00: 0.9785
2025-07-06 04:00: 0.0210
2025-07-06 05:00: 0.9810
2025-07-06 07:00: 0.0245
2025-07-06 08:00: 0.9800
2025-07-06 10:00: 0.0195
2025-07-06 11:00: 0.9815
2025-07-06 13:00: 0.0200
2025-07-06 14:00: 0.9785
2025-07-06 16:00: 0.0200
2025-07-06 17:00: 0.9805
2025-07-06 19:00: 0.0205
2025-07-06 20:00: 0.9810
2025-07-06 22:00: 0.0190
2025-07-06 23:00: 0.9810
2025-07-07 01:00: 0.0185
2025-07-07 02:00: 0.9815
2025-07-07 04:00: 0.0190
2025-07-07 05:00: 0.9810
2025-07-07 07:00: 0.0235
2025-07-07 08:00: 0.9765
2025-07-07 10:00: 0.0235
2025-07-07 11:00: 0.9760
2025-07-07 13:00: 0.0240
2025-07-07 14:00: 0.9760
Trade Summary: No trades available
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 555480
Question: Will Zohran Mamdani’s RCV margin of victory be between 11% and 12% in the New York City Mayoral Democratic Primary?
Volume: 460144.606652
Price History:
2025-07-07 23:00: 0.0225
2025-07-08 00:00: 0.9730
2025-07-08 02:00: 0.0270
2025-07-08 03:00: 0.9730
2025-07-08 05:00: 0.0270
2025-07-08 06:00: 0.9730
2025-07-08 08:00: 0.0275
2025-07-08 09:00: 0.9715
2025-07-08 11:00: 0.0280
2025-07-08 12:00: 0.9530
2025-07-08 14:00: 0.0070
2025-07-08 15:00: 0.9970
2025-07-08 17:00: 0.0015
2025-07-08 18:00: 0.9970
2025-07-08 20:00: 0.0030
2025-07-08 21:00: 0.9980
2025-07-08 23:00: 0.0025
2025-07-09 00:00: 0.9975
2025-07-09 02:00: 0.0025
2025-07-09 03:00: 0.9975
2025-07-09 05:00: 0.0025
2025-07-09 06:00: 0.9985
2025-07-09 08:00: 0.0015
2025-07-09 09:00: 0.9985
2025-07-09 11:00: 0.0015
2025-07-09 12:00: 0.9985
2025-07-09 14:00: 0.0015
2025-07-09 15:00: 0.9985
2025-07-09 17:00: 0.0015
2025-07-09 18:00: 0.9985
Trade Summary: No trades available
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 555480
Question: Will Zohran Mamdani’s RCV margin of victory be between 11% and 12% in the New York City Mayoral Democratic Primary?
Volume: 460144.606652
Price History:
2025-07-10 03:00: 0.0015
2025-07-10 04:00: 0.9985
2025-07-10 06:00: 0.0015
2025-07-10 07:00: 0.9985
2025-07-10 09:00: 0.0015
2025-07-10 10:00: 0.9985
2025-07-10 12:00: 0.0015
2025-07-10 13:00: 0.9985
2025-07-10 15:00: 0.0015
2025-07-10 16:00: 0.9985
2025-07-10 18:00: 0.0015
2025-07-10 19:00: 0.9985
2025-07-10 21:00: 0.0015
2025-07-10 22:00: 0.9985
2025-07-11 00:00: 0.0015
2025-07-11 01:00: 0.9985
2025-07-11 03:00: 0.0015
2025-07-11 04:00: 0.9985
2025-07-11 06:00: 0.0015
2025-07-11 07:00: 0.9985
2025-07-11 09:00: 0.0015
2025-07-11 10:00: 0.9985
2025-07-11 12:00: 0.0015
2025-07-11 13:00: 0.9985
2025-07-11 15:00: 0.0015
2025-07-11 16:00: 0.9985
2025-07-11 18:00: 0.0015
2025-07-11 19:00: 0.9985
2025-07-11 21:00: 0.0015
2025-07-11 22:00: 0.9985
Trade Summary: No trades available
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 555480
Question: Will Zohran Mamdani’s RCV margin of victory be between 11% and 12% in the New York City Mayoral Democratic Primary?
Volume: 460144.606652
Price History:
2025-07-12 07:00: 0.0015
2025-07-12 08:00: 0.9985
2025-07-12 10:00: 0.0015
2025-07-12 11:00: 0.9985
2025-07-12 13:00: 0.0015
2025-07-12 14:00: 0.9985
2025-07-12 16:00: 0.0015
2025-07-12 17:00: 0.9985
2025-07-12 19:00: 0.0015
2025-07-12 20:00: 0.9985
2025-07-12 22:00: 0.0015
2025-07-12 23:00: 0.9985
2025-07-13 01:00: 0.0015
2025-07-13 02:00: 0.9985
2025-07-13 04:00: 0.0015
2025-07-13 05:00: 0.9985
2025-07-13 07:00: 0.0015
2025-07-13 08:00: 0.9985
2025-07-13 10:00: 0.0015
2025-07-13 11:00: 0.9985
2025-07-13 13:00: 0.0015
2025-07-13 14:00: 0.9985
2025-07-13 16:00: 0.0015
2025-07-13 17:00: 0.9985
2025-07-13 19:00: 0.0015
2025-07-13 20:00: 0.9985
2025-07-13 22:00: 0.0015
2025-07-13 23:00: 0.9985
2025-07-14 01:00: 0.0015
2025-07-14 02:00: 0.9985
Trade Summary: No trades available
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 555480
Question: Will Zohran Mamdani’s RCV margin of victory be between 11% and 12% in the New York City Mayoral Democratic Primary?
Volume: 460144.606652
Price History:
2025-07-14 11:00: 0.0015
2025-07-14 12:00: 0.9985
2025-07-14 14:00: 0.0015
2025-07-14 15:00: 0.9985
2025-07-14 17:00: 0.0015
2025-07-14 18:00: 0.9985
2025-07-14 20:00: 0.0015
2025-07-14 21:00: 0.9985
2025-07-14 23:00: 0.0015
2025-07-15 00:00: 0.9985
2025-07-15 02:00: 0.0015
2025-07-15 03:00: 0.9985
2025-07-15 05:00: 0.0015
2025-07-15 06:00: 0.9985
2025-07-15 08:00: 0.0015
2025-07-15 09:00: 0.9985
2025-07-15 11:00: 0.0015
2025-07-15 12:00: 0.9985
2025-07-15 14:00: 0.0005
2025-07-15 15:00: 0.9995
2025-07-15 17:00: 0.0005
2025-07-15 18:00: 0.9995
2025-07-15 20:00: 0.0005
2025-07-15 21:00: 0.9995
2025-07-15 23:00: 0.0005
2025-07-16 00:00: 0.9995
2025-07-16 02:00: 0.0005
2025-07-16 03:00: 0.9995
2025-07-16 05:00: 0.0005
2025-07-16 06:00: 0.9995
Trade Summary: No trades available
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 555480
Question: Will Zohran Mamdani’s RCV margin of victory be between 11% and 12% in the New York City Mayoral Democratic Primary?
Volume: 460144.606652
Price History:
2025-07-16 15:00: 0.0005
2025-07-16 16:00: 0.9995
2025-07-16 18:00: 0.0005
2025-07-16 19:00: 0.9995
2025-07-16 21:00: 0.0005
2025-07-16 22:00: 0.9995
2025-07-17 00:00: 0.0005
2025-07-17 01:00: 0.9995
2025-07-17 03:00: 0.0005
2025-07-17 04:00: 0.9995
2025-07-17 06:00: 0.0005
2025-07-17 07:00: 0.9995
2025-07-17 09:00: 0.0005
2025-07-17 10:00: 0.9995
2025-07-17 12:00: 0.0005
2025-07-17 13:00: 0.9995
2025-07-17 15:00: 0.0005
2025-07-17 16:00: 0.9995
2025-07-17 18:00: 0.0005
2025-07-17 19:00: 0.9995
2025-07-17 21:00: 0.0005
2025-07-17 22:00: 0.9995
2025-07-18 00:00: 0.0005
2025-07-18 01:00: 0.9995
2025-07-18 03:00: 0.0005
2025-07-18 04:00: 0.9995
2025-07-18 06:00: 0.0005
2025-07-18 07:00: 0.9995
2025-07-18 09:00: 0.0005
2025-07-18 10:00: 0.9995
Trade Summary: No trades available
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 555480
Question: Will Zohran Mamdani’s RCV margin of victory be between 11% and 12% in the New York City Mayoral Democratic Primary?
Volume: 460144.606652
Price History:
2025-07-18 19:00: 0.0005
2025-07-18 20:00: 0.9995
2025-07-18 22:00: 0.0005
2025-07-18 23:00: 0.9995
2025-07-19 01:00: 0.0005
2025-07-19 02:00: 0.9995
2025-07-19 04:00: 0.0005
2025-07-19 05:00: 0.9995
2025-07-19 07:00: 0.0005
2025-07-19 08:00: 0.9995
2025-07-19 10:00: 0.0005
2025-07-19 11:00: 0.9995
2025-07-19 13:00: 0.0005
2025-07-19 14:00: 0.9995
2025-07-19 16:00: 0.0005
2025-07-19 17:00: 0.9995
2025-07-19 19:00: 0.0005
2025-07-19 20:00: 0.9995
2025-07-19 22:00: 0.0005
2025-07-19 23:00: 0.9995
2025-07-20 01:00: 0.0005
2025-07-20 02:00: 0.9995
2025-07-20 04:00: 0.0005
2025-07-20 05:00: 0.9995
2025-07-20 07:00: 0.0005
2025-07-20 08:00: 0.9995
2025-07-20 10:00: 0.0005
2025-07-20 11:00: 0.9995
2025-07-20 13:00: 0.0010
2025-07-20 14:00: 0.9990
Trade Summary: No trades available
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 555480
Question: Will Zohran Mamdani’s RCV margin of victory be between 11% and 12% in the New York City Mayoral Democratic Primary?
Volume: 460144.606652
Price History:
2025-07-20 23:00: 0.0010
2025-07-21 00:00: 0.9990
2025-07-21 02:00: 0.0010
2025-07-21 03:00: 0.9990
2025-07-21 05:00: 0.0010
2025-07-21 06:00: 0.9985
2025-07-21 08:00: 0.0015
2025-07-21 09:00: 0.9985
2025-07-21 11:00: 0.0005
2025-07-21 12:00: 0.9995
2025-07-21 14:00: 0.0005
2025-07-21 15:00: 0.9995
2025-07-21 17:00: 0.0005
2025-07-21 18:00: 0.9995
2025-07-21 20:00: 0.0005
2025-07-21 21:00: 0.9995
2025-07-21 23:00: 0.0005
2025-07-22 00:00: 0.9995
2025-07-22 02:00: 0.0005
2025-07-22 03:00: 0.9995
2025-07-22 05:00: 0.0005
2025-07-22 06:00: 0.9995
2025-07-22 08:00: 0.0005
2025-07-22 09:00: 0.9995
2025-07-22 11:00: 0.0005
2025-07-22 12:00: 0.9995
2025-07-22 14:00: 0.0005
2025-07-22 15:00: 0.9995
2025-07-22 17:00: 0.0005
2025-07-22 18:00: 0.9990
Trade Summary: No trades available
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 555481
Question: Will Zohran Mamdani’s RCV margin of victory be between 12% and 13% in the New York City Mayoral Democratic Primary?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 411521.719628
Price History:
2025-06-24 23:00: 0.1600
2025-06-25 00:00: 0.1100
2025-06-25 01:00: 0.1450
2025-06-25 02:00: 0.1750
2025-06-25 03:00: 0.1700
2025-06-25 04:00: 0.1450
2025-06-25 05:00: 0.1550
2025-06-25 06:00: 0.1600
2025-06-25 07:00: 0.1600
2025-06-25 08:00: 0.1750
2025-06-25 09:00: 0.1650
2025-06-25 10:00: 0.1600
2025-06-25 11:00: 0.1600
2025-06-25 12:00: 0.1600
2025-06-25 13:00: 0.1550
2025-06-25 14:00: 0.1150
2025-06-25 15:00: 0.1150
2025-06-25 16:00: 0.1350
2025-06-25 17:00: 0.1300
2025-06-25 18:00: 0.1900
2025-06-25 19:00: 0.1700
2025-06-25 20:00: 0.2050
2025-06-25 21:00: 0.2400
2025-06-25 22:00: 0.2250
2025-06-25 23:00: 0.2200
2025-06-26 00:00: 0.2200
2025-06-26 01:00: 0.2200
2025-06-26 02:00: 0.2400
2025-06-26 03:00: 0.2400
2025-06-26 04:00: 0.2400
2025-06-26 05:00: 0.2400
2025-06-26 06:00: 0.2450
2025-06-26 07:00: 0.2450
2025-06-26 08:00: 0.2450
2025-06-26 09:00: 0.2700
2025-06-26 10:00: 0.2900
2025-06-26 11:00: 0.2800
2025-06-26 12:00: 0.2850
2025-06-26 13:00: 0.2650
2025-06-26 14:00: 0.2650
2025-06-26 15:00: 0.2650
2025-06-26 16:00: 0.2600
2025-06-26 17:00: 0.2550
2025-06-26 18:00: 0.2450
2025-06-26 19:00: 0.2550
2025-06-26 20:00: 0.2550
2025-06-26 21:00: 0.2450
2025-06-26 22:00: 0.2500
2025-06-26 23:00: 0.2500
2025-06-27 00:00: 0.2500
Trade Summary: No trades available

Output: No


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 555481
Question: Will Zohran Mamdani’s RCV margin of victory be between 12% and 13% in the New York City Mayoral Democratic Primary?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 411521.719628
Price History:
2025-06-27 03:00: 0.2750
2025-06-27 04:00: 0.2700
2025-06-27 05:00: 0.2650
2025-06-27 06:00: 0.2550
2025-06-27 07:00: 0.2550
2025-06-27 08:00: 0.2550
2025-06-27 09:00: 0.2550
2025-06-27 10:00: 0.2550
2025-06-27 11:00: 0.2550
2025-06-27 12:00: 0.2550
2025-06-27 13:00: 0.2550
2025-06-27 14:00: 0.2650
2025-06-27 15:00: 0.2700
2025-06-27 16:00: 0.2700
2025-06-27 17:00: 0.2700
2025-06-27 18:00: 0.2700
2025-06-27 19:00: 0.2550
2025-06-27 20:00: 0.2650
2025-06-27 21:00: 0.2650
2025-06-27 22:00: 0.2650
2025-06-27 23:00: 0.2650
2025-06-28 00:00: 0.2650
2025-06-28 01:00: 0.2650
2025-06-28 02:00: 0.2650
2025-06-28 03:00: 0.2650
2025-06-28 04:00: 0.2650
2025-06-28 05:00: 0.2700
2025-06-28 06:00: 0.2700
2025-06-28 07:00: 0.2700
2025-06-28 08:00: 0.2650
2025-06-28 09:00: 0.2650
2025-06-28 10:00: 0.2650
2025-06-28 11:00: 0.2650
2025-06-28 12:00: 0.2650
2025-06-28 13:00: 0.2650
2025-06-28 14:00: 0.2650
2025-06-28 15:00: 0.2750
2025-06-28 16:00: 0.2600
2025-06-28 17:00: 0.2600
2025-06-28 18:00: 0.2650
2025-06-28 19:00: 0.2650
2025-06-28 20:00: 0.2650
2025-06-28 21:00: 0.2650
2025-06-28 22:00: 0.2650
2025-06-28 23:00: 0.2650
2025-06-29 00:00: 0.2650
2025-06-29 01:00: 0.2650
2025-06-29 02:00: 0.2650
2025-06-29 03:00: 0.2650
2025-06-29 04:00: 0.2650
Trade Summary: No trades available

Output: No


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 555481
Question: Will Zohran Mamdani’s RCV margin of victory be between 12% and 13% in the New York City Mayoral Democratic Primary?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 411521.719628
Price History:
2025-06-29 07:00: 0.2750
2025-06-29 08:00: 0.2750
2025-06-29 09:00: 0.2750
2025-06-29 10:00: 0.2750
2025-06-29 11:00: 0.2700
2025-06-29 12:00: 0.2650
2025-06-29 13:00: 0.2650
2025-06-29 14:00: 0.2600
2025-06-29 15:00: 0.2550
2025-06-29 16:00: 0.2600
2025-06-29 17:00: 0.2800
2025-06-29 18:00: 0.2850
2025-06-29 19:00: 0.2850
2025-06-29 20:00: 0.2850
2025-06-29 21:00: 0.2750
2025-06-29 22:00: 0.2750
2025-06-29 23:00: 0.2850
2025-06-30 00:00: 0.2850
2025-06-30 01:00: 0.2850
2025-06-30 02:00: 0.2850
2025-06-30 03:00: 0.2750
2025-06-30 04:00: 0.2700
2025-06-30 05:00: 0.2700
2025-06-30 06:00: 0.2550
2025-06-30 07:00: 0.2700
2025-06-30 08:00: 0.2450
2025-06-30 09:00: 0.2450
2025-06-30 10:00: 0.2500
2025-06-30 11:00: 0.2500
2025-06-30 12:00: 0.2450
2025-06-30 13:00: 0.2350
2025-06-30 14:00: 0.2550
2025-06-30 15:00: 0.2550
2025-06-30 16:00: 0.2550
2025-06-30 17:00: 0.2300
2025-06-30 18:00: 0.2300
2025-06-30 19:00: 0.2250
2025-06-30 20:00: 0.2250
2025-06-30 21:00: 0.2250
2025-06-30 22:00: 0.2250
2025-06-30 23:00: 0.2300
2025-07-01 00:00: 0.2300
2025-07-01 01:00: 0.2250
2025-07-01 02:00: 0.2100
2025-07-01 03:00: 0.1550
2025-07-01 04:00: 0.1500
2025-07-01 05:00: 0.1500
2025-07-01 06:00: 0.1600
2025-07-01 07:00: 0.1250
2025-07-01 08:00: 0.1350
Trade Summary: No trades available

Output: No


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 555481
Question: Will Zohran Mamdani’s RCV margin of victory be between 12% and 13% in the New York City Mayoral Democratic Primary?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 411521.719628
Price History:
2025-07-01 11:00: 0.1800
2025-07-01 12:00: 0.1600
2025-07-01 13:00: 0.5400
2025-07-01 14:00: 0.5250
2025-07-01 15:00: 0.5300
2025-07-01 16:00: 0.5600
2025-07-01 17:00: 0.5750
2025-07-01 18:00: 0.5850
2025-07-01 19:00: 0.6000
2025-07-01 20:00: 0.6000
2025-07-01 21:00: 0.6150
2025-07-01 22:00: 0.6300
2025-07-01 23:00: 0.6550
2025-07-02 00:00: 0.6350
2025-07-02 01:00: 0.6400
2025-07-02 02:00: 0.6700
2025-07-02 03:00: 0.6950
2025-07-02 04:00: 0.7000
2025-07-02 05:00: 0.6900
2025-07-02 06:00: 0.6750
2025-07-02 07:00: 0.6750
2025-07-02 08:00: 0.6600
2025-07-02 09:00: 0.6600
2025-07-02 10:00: 0.6300
2025-07-02 11:00: 0.6150
2025-07-02 12:00: 0.6400
2025-07-02 13:00: 0.6450
2025-07-02 14:00: 0.6450
2025-07-02 15:00: 0.6450
2025-07-02 16:00: 0.6500
2025-07-02 17:00: 0.6350
2025-07-02 18:00: 0.6300
2025-07-02 19:00: 0.6300
2025-07-02 20:00: 0.6400
2025-07-02 21:00: 0.6450
2025-07-02 22:00: 0.6500
2025-07-02 23:00: 0.6500
2025-07-03 00:00: 0.6500
2025-07-03 01:00: 0.6500
2025-07-03 02:00: 0.6500
2025-07-03 03:00: 0.6500
2025-07-03 04:00: 0.6500
2025-07-03 05:00: 0.6500
2025-07-03 06:00: 0.6500
2025-07-03 07:00: 0.6500
2025-07-03 08:00: 0.6550
2025-07-03 09:00: 0.6500
2025-07-03 10:00: 0.6550
2025-07-03 11:00: 0.6550
2025-07-03 12:00: 0.6500
Trade Summary: No trades available

Output: No


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 555481
Question: Will Zohran Mamdani’s RCV margin of victory be between 12% and 13% in the New York City Mayoral Democratic Primary?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 411521.719628
Price History:
2025-07-03 15:00: 0.6550
2025-07-03 16:00: 0.6550
2025-07-03 17:00: 0.6550
2025-07-03 18:00: 0.6500
2025-07-03 19:00: 0.6550
2025-07-03 20:00: 0.6550
2025-07-03 21:00: 0.6550
2025-07-03 22:00: 0.6550
2025-07-03 23:00: 0.6550
2025-07-04 00:00: 0.6550
2025-07-04 01:00: 0.6550
2025-07-04 02:00: 0.6550
2025-07-04 03:00: 0.6500
2025-07-04 04:00: 0.6500
2025-07-04 05:00: 0.6500
2025-07-04 06:00: 0.6500
2025-07-04 07:00: 0.6550
2025-07-04 08:00: 0.6500
2025-07-04 09:00: 0.6500
2025-07-04 10:00: 0.6550
2025-07-04 11:00: 0.6450
2025-07-04 12:00: 0.6450
2025-07-04 13:00: 0.6500
2025-07-04 14:00: 0.6500
2025-07-04 15:00: 0.6500
2025-07-04 16:00: 0.6500
2025-07-04 17:00: 0.6500
2025-07-04 18:00: 0.6500
2025-07-04 19:00: 0.6500
2025-07-04 20:00: 0.6500
2025-07-04 21:00: 0.6450
2025-07-04 22:00: 0.6500
2025-07-04 23:00: 0.6550
2025-07-05 00:00: 0.6450
2025-07-05 01:00: 0.6450
2025-07-05 02:00: 0.6450
2025-07-05 03:00: 0.6450
2025-07-05 04:00: 0.6450
2025-07-05 05:00: 0.6450
2025-07-05 06:00: 0.6500
2025-07-05 07:00: 0.6450
2025-07-05 08:00: 0.6450
2025-07-05 09:00: 0.6500
2025-07-05 10:00: 0.6500
2025-07-05 11:00: 0.6450
2025-07-05 12:00: 0.6450
2025-07-05 13:00: 0.6450
2025-07-05 14:00: 0.6450
2025-07-05 15:00: 0.6450
2025-07-05 16:00: 0.6450
Trade Summary: No trades available

Output: No


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 555481
Question: Will Zohran Mamdani’s RCV margin of victory be between 12% and 13% in the New York City Mayoral Democratic Primary?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 411521.719628
Price History:
2025-07-05 19:00: 0.6000
2025-07-05 20:00: 0.6000
2025-07-05 21:00: 0.6000
2025-07-05 22:00: 0.5650
2025-07-05 23:00: 0.5600
2025-07-06 00:00: 0.5600
2025-07-06 01:00: 0.5850
2025-07-06 02:00: 0.5850
2025-07-06 03:00: 0.5850
2025-07-06 04:00: 0.5850
2025-07-06 05:00: 0.5850
2025-07-06 06:00: 0.5850
2025-07-06 07:00: 0.5850
2025-07-06 08:00: 0.5900
2025-07-06 09:00: 0.5950
2025-07-06 10:00: 0.6000
2025-07-06 11:00: 0.6000
2025-07-06 12:00: 0.6150
2025-07-06 13:00: 0.6150
2025-07-06 14:00: 0.6100
2025-07-06 15:00: 0.6100
2025-07-06 16:00: 0.6100
2025-07-06 17:00: 0.6100
2025-07-06 18:00: 0.6100
2025-07-06 19:00: 0.6150
2025-07-06 20:00: 0.6150
2025-07-06 21:00: 0.6150
2025-07-06 22:00: 0.6150
2025-07-06 23:00: 0.6150
2025-07-07 00:00: 0.6150
2025-07-07 01:00: 0.6150
2025-07-07 02:00: 0.6150
2025-07-07 03:00: 0.5750
2025-07-07 04:00: 0.5750
2025-07-07 05:00: 0.5800
2025-07-07 06:00: 0.5750
2025-07-07 07:00: 0.5750
2025-07-07 08:00: 0.5750
2025-07-07 09:00: 0.5850
2025-07-07 10:00: 0.5850
2025-07-07 11:00: 0.5900
2025-07-07 12:00: 0.5850
2025-07-07 13:00: 0.5900
2025-07-07 14:00: 0.5850
2025-07-07 15:00: 0.5600
2025-07-07 16:00: 0.5600
2025-07-07 17:00: 0.5600
2025-07-07 18:00: 0.6400
2025-07-07 19:00: 0.6400
2025-07-07 20:00: 0.6400
Trade Summary: No trades available

Output: No


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 555481
Question: Will Zohran Mamdani’s RCV margin of victory be between 12% and 13% in the New York City Mayoral Democratic Primary?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 411521.719628
Price History:
2025-07-07 23:00: 0.6750
2025-07-08 00:00: 0.6600
2025-07-08 01:00: 0.6600
2025-07-08 02:00: 0.6600
2025-07-08 03:00: 0.6750
2025-07-08 04:00: 0.6750
2025-07-08 05:00: 0.6800
2025-07-08 06:00: 0.6750
2025-07-08 07:00: 0.6750
2025-07-08 08:00: 0.6750
2025-07-08 09:00: 0.6650
2025-07-08 10:00: 0.6550
2025-07-08 11:00: 0.6750
2025-07-08 12:00: 0.6350
2025-07-08 13:00: 0.7400
2025-07-08 14:00: 0.8200
2025-07-08 15:00: 0.8350
2025-07-08 16:00: 0.8450
2025-07-08 17:00: 0.8400
2025-07-08 18:00: 0.8400
2025-07-08 19:00: 0.8400
2025-07-08 20:00: 0.8400
2025-07-08 21:00: 0.8400
2025-07-08 22:00: 0.8500
2025-07-08 23:00: 0.8550
2025-07-09 00:00: 0.8550
2025-07-09 01:00: 0.8550
2025-07-09 02:00: 0.8650
2025-07-09 03:00: 0.8650
2025-07-09 04:00: 0.8650
2025-07-09 05:00: 0.8650
2025-07-09 06:00: 0.8650
2025-07-09 07:00: 0.8600
2025-07-09 08:00: 0.8550
2025-07-09 09:00: 0.8550
2025-07-09 10:00: 0.8600
2025-07-09 11:00: 0.8600
2025-07-09 12:00: 0.8550
2025-07-09 13:00: 0.8550
2025-07-09 14:00: 0.8500
2025-07-09 15:00: 0.8500
2025-07-09 16:00: 0.8500
2025-07-09 17:00: 0.8550
2025-07-09 18:00: 0.8500
2025-07-09 19:00: 0.8500
2025-07-09 20:00: 0.8500
2025-07-09 21:00: 0.8500
2025-07-09 22:00: 0.8500
2025-07-09 23:00: 0.8500
2025-07-10 00:00: 0.8500
Trade Summary: No trades available

Output: No


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 555481
Question: Will Zohran Mamdani’s RCV margin of victory be between 12% and 13% in the New York City Mayoral Democratic Primary?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 411521.719628
Price History:
2025-07-10 03:00: 0.9000
2025-07-10 04:00: 0.8950
2025-07-10 05:00: 0.8900
2025-07-10 06:00: 0.9000
2025-07-10 07:00: 0.9000
2025-07-10 08:00: 0.9000
2025-07-10 09:00: 0.9000
2025-07-10 10:00: 0.8950
2025-07-10 11:00: 0.9050
2025-07-10 12:00: 0.9050
2025-07-10 13:00: 0.8950
2025-07-10 14:00: 0.8950
2025-07-10 15:00: 0.8950
2025-07-10 16:00: 0.8950
2025-07-10 17:00: 0.8950
2025-07-10 18:00: 0.8950
2025-07-10 19:00: 0.8950
2025-07-10 20:00: 0.8950
2025-07-10 21:00: 0.8950
2025-07-10 22:00: 0.9000
2025-07-10 23:00: 0.8950
2025-07-11 00:00: 0.8950
2025-07-11 01:00: 0.8950
2025-07-11 02:00: 0.8950
2025-07-11 03:00: 0.8950
2025-07-11 04:00: 0.8950
2025-07-11 05:00: 0.8950
2025-07-11 06:00: 0.9050
2025-07-11 07:00: 0.9150
2025-07-11 08:00: 0.9150
2025-07-11 09:00: 0.9150
2025-07-11 10:00: 0.9150
2025-07-11 11:00: 0.9150
2025-07-11 12:00: 0.9150
2025-07-11 13:00: 0.9150
2025-07-11 14:00: 0.9150
2025-07-11 15:00: 0.9050
2025-07-11 16:00: 0.9050
2025-07-11 17:00: 0.9050
2025-07-11 18:00: 0.9050
2025-07-11 19:00: 0.9050
2025-07-11 20:00: 0.9050
2025-07-11 21:00: 0.9050
2025-07-11 22:00: 0.9050
2025-07-11 23:00: 0.9050
2025-07-12 00:00: 0.9050
2025-07-12 01:00: 0.9050
2025-07-12 02:00: 0.9050
2025-07-12 03:00: 0.9050
2025-07-12 04:00: 0.9050
Trade Summary: No trades available

Output: No


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 555481
Question: Will Zohran Mamdani’s RCV margin of victory be between 12% and 13% in the New York City Mayoral Democratic Primary?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 411521.719628
Price History:
2025-07-12 07:00: 0.9050
2025-07-12 08:00: 0.9050
2025-07-12 09:00: 0.9050
2025-07-12 10:00: 0.9050
2025-07-12 11:00: 0.9050
2025-07-12 12:00: 0.9050
2025-07-12 13:00: 0.9050
2025-07-12 14:00: 0.8850
2025-07-12 15:00: 0.8850
2025-07-12 16:00: 0.8950
2025-07-12 17:00: 0.8950
2025-07-12 18:00: 0.8950
2025-07-12 19:00: 0.8950
2025-07-12 20:00: 0.8950
2025-07-12 21:00: 0.8950
2025-07-12 22:00: 0.8950
2025-07-12 23:00: 0.8950
2025-07-13 00:00: 0.8950
2025-07-13 01:00: 0.8950
2025-07-13 02:00: 0.8950
2025-07-13 03:00: 0.8950
2025-07-13 04:00: 0.8950
2025-07-13 05:00: 0.9050
2025-07-13 06:00: 0.9050
2025-07-13 07:00: 0.9050
2025-07-13 08:00: 0.8850
2025-07-13 09:00: 0.8750
2025-07-13 10:00: 0.8750
2025-07-13 11:00: 0.8850
2025-07-13 12:00: 0.8850
2025-07-13 13:00: 0.8850
2025-07-13 14:00: 0.8850
2025-07-13 15:00: 0.8850
2025-07-13 16:00: 0.8850
2025-07-13 17:00: 0.8850
2025-07-13 18:00: 0.8850
2025-07-13 19:00: 0.8850
2025-07-13 20:00: 0.8850
2025-07-13 21:00: 0.8850
2025-07-13 22:00: 0.8800
2025-07-13 23:00: 0.8800
2025-07-14 00:00: 0.8800
2025-07-14 01:00: 0.8750
2025-07-14 02:00: 0.8600
2025-07-14 03:00: 0.8600
2025-07-14 04:00: 0.8650
2025-07-14 05:00: 0.8700
2025-07-14 06:00: 0.8700
2025-07-14 07:00: 0.8600
2025-07-14 08:00: 0.8600
Trade Summary: No trades available

Output: No


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 555481
Question: Will Zohran Mamdani’s RCV margin of victory be between 12% and 13% in the New York City Mayoral Democratic Primary?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 411521.719628
Price History:
2025-07-14 11:00: 0.8650
2025-07-14 12:00: 0.8600
2025-07-14 13:00: 0.8600
2025-07-14 14:00: 0.8600
2025-07-14 15:00: 0.8600
2025-07-14 16:00: 0.8600
2025-07-14 17:00: 0.8550
2025-07-14 18:00: 0.6750
2025-07-14 19:00: 0.8350
2025-07-14 20:00: 0.8350
2025-07-14 21:00: 0.8350
2025-07-14 22:00: 0.8350
2025-07-14 23:00: 0.8400
2025-07-15 00:00: 0.8350
2025-07-15 01:00: 0.8200
2025-07-15 02:00: 0.8350
2025-07-15 03:00: 0.8350
2025-07-15 04:00: 0.8400
2025-07-15 05:00: 0.8400
2025-07-15 06:00: 0.8400
2025-07-15 07:00: 0.8400
2025-07-15 08:00: 0.8350
2025-07-15 09:00: 0.8450
2025-07-15 10:00: 0.8400
2025-07-15 11:00: 0.8250
2025-07-15 12:00: 0.8450
2025-07-15 13:00: 0.9500
2025-07-15 14:00: 0.9500
2025-07-15 15:00: 0.8950
2025-07-15 16:00: 0.9200
2025-07-15 17:00: 0.9100
2025-07-15 18:00: 0.9050
2025-07-15 19:00: 0.9250
2025-07-15 20:00: 0.9250
2025-07-15 21:00: 0.9250
2025-07-15 22:00: 0.9250
2025-07-15 23:00: 0.9200
2025-07-16 00:00: 0.9200
2025-07-16 01:00: 0.9200
2025-07-16 02:00: 0.9200
2025-07-16 03:00: 0.9350
2025-07-16 04:00: 0.9350
2025-07-16 05:00: 0.9350
2025-07-16 06:00: 0.9450
2025-07-16 07:00: 0.9450
2025-07-16 08:00: 0.9450
2025-07-16 09:00: 0.9550
2025-07-16 10:00: 0.9550
2025-07-16 11:00: 0.9550
2025-07-16 12:00: 0.9550
Trade Summary: No trades available

Output: No


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 555481
Question: Will Zohran Mamdani’s RCV margin of victory be between 12% and 13% in the New York City Mayoral Democratic Primary?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 411521.719628
Price History:
2025-07-16 15:00: 0.9550
2025-07-16 16:00: 0.9550
2025-07-16 17:00: 0.9550
2025-07-16 18:00: 0.9550
2025-07-16 19:00: 0.9550
2025-07-16 20:00: 0.9550
2025-07-16 21:00: 0.9550
2025-07-16 22:00: 0.9550
2025-07-16 23:00: 0.9550
2025-07-17 00:00: 0.9550
2025-07-17 01:00: 0.9550
2025-07-17 02:00: 0.9550
2025-07-17 03:00: 0.9645
2025-07-17 04:00: 0.9670
2025-07-17 05:00: 0.9670
2025-07-17 06:00: 0.9645
2025-07-17 07:00: 0.9645
2025-07-17 08:00: 0.9655
2025-07-17 09:00: 0.9660
2025-07-17 10:00: 0.9665
2025-07-17 11:00: 0.9665
2025-07-17 12:00: 0.9665
2025-07-17 13:00: 0.9655
2025-07-17 14:00: 0.9650
2025-07-17 15:00: 0.9650
2025-07-17 16:00: 0.9665
2025-07-17 17:00: 0.9665
2025-07-17 18:00: 0.9665
2025-07-17 19:00: 0.9665
2025-07-17 20:00: 0.9670
2025-07-17 21:00: 0.9670
2025-07-17 22:00: 0.9665
2025-07-17 23:00: 0.9670
2025-07-18 00:00: 0.9665
2025-07-18 01:00: 0.9670
2025-07-18 02:00: 0.9665
2025-07-18 03:00: 0.9665
2025-07-18 04:00: 0.9665
2025-07-18 05:00: 0.9665
2025-07-18 06:00: 0.9665
2025-07-18 07:00: 0.9670
2025-07-18 08:00: 0.9665
2025-07-18 09:00: 0.9665
2025-07-18 10:00: 0.9665
2025-07-18 11:00: 0.9665
2025-07-18 12:00: 0.9665
2025-07-18 13:00: 0.9670
2025-07-18 14:00: 0.9665
2025-07-18 15:00: 0.9665
2025-07-18 16:00: 0.9665
Trade Summary: No trades available

Output: No


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 555481
Question: Will Zohran Mamdani’s RCV margin of victory be between 12% and 13% in the New York City Mayoral Democratic Primary?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 411521.719628
Price History:
2025-07-18 19:00: 0.9670
2025-07-18 20:00: 0.9670
2025-07-18 21:00: 0.9670
2025-07-18 22:00: 0.9670
2025-07-18 23:00: 0.9670
2025-07-19 00:00: 0.9670
2025-07-19 01:00: 0.9670
2025-07-19 02:00: 0.9670
2025-07-19 03:00: 0.9670
2025-07-19 04:00: 0.9670
2025-07-19 05:00: 0.9670
2025-07-19 06:00: 0.9670
2025-07-19 07:00: 0.9670
2025-07-19 08:00: 0.9670
2025-07-19 09:00: 0.9675
2025-07-19 10:00: 0.9675
2025-07-19 11:00: 0.9675
2025-07-19 12:00: 0.9675
2025-07-19 13:00: 0.9675
2025-07-19 14:00: 0.9680
2025-07-19 15:00: 0.9680
2025-07-19 16:00: 0.9675
2025-07-19 17:00: 0.9675
2025-07-19 18:00: 0.9675
2025-07-19 19:00: 0.9675
2025-07-19 20:00: 0.9675
2025-07-19 21:00: 0.9675
2025-07-19 22:00: 0.9675
2025-07-19 23:00: 0.9680
2025-07-20 00:00: 0.9675
2025-07-20 01:00: 0.9675
2025-07-20 02:00: 0.9675
2025-07-20 03:00: 0.9675
2025-07-20 04:00: 0.9675
2025-07-20 05:00: 0.9675
2025-07-20 06:00: 0.9675
2025-07-20 07:00: 0.9675
2025-07-20 08:00: 0.9675
2025-07-20 09:00: 0.9680
2025-07-20 10:00: 0.9725
2025-07-20 11:00: 0.9725
2025-07-20 12:00: 0.9725
2025-07-20 13:00: 0.9725
2025-07-20 14:00: 0.9725
2025-07-20 15:00: 0.9725
2025-07-20 16:00: 0.9725
2025-07-20 17:00: 0.9725
2025-07-20 18:00: 0.9725
2025-07-20 19:00: 0.9815
2025-07-20 20:00: 0.9835
Trade Summary: No trades available

Output: No


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 555481
Question: Will Zohran Mamdani’s RCV margin of victory be between 12% and 13% in the New York City Mayoral Democratic Primary?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 411521.719628
Price History:
2025-07-20 23:00: 0.9825
2025-07-21 00:00: 0.9825
2025-07-21 01:00: 0.9825
2025-07-21 02:00: 0.9825
2025-07-21 03:00: 0.9825
2025-07-21 04:00: 0.9825
2025-07-21 05:00: 0.9780
2025-07-21 06:00: 0.9785
2025-07-21 07:00: 0.9815
2025-07-21 08:00: 0.9815
2025-07-21 09:00: 0.9815
2025-07-21 10:00: 0.9815
2025-07-21 11:00: 0.9815
2025-07-21 12:00: 0.9815
2025-07-21 13:00: 0.9815
2025-07-21 14:00: 0.9815
2025-07-21 15:00: 0.9815
2025-07-21 16:00: 0.9815
2025-07-21 17:00: 0.9815
2025-07-21 18:00: 0.9815
2025-07-21 19:00: 0.9815
2025-07-21 20:00: 0.9815
2025-07-21 21:00: 0.9815
2025-07-21 22:00: 0.9830
2025-07-21 23:00: 0.9845
2025-07-22 00:00: 0.9845
2025-07-22 01:00: 0.9845
2025-07-22 02:00: 0.9845
2025-07-22 03:00: 0.9845
2025-07-22 04:00: 0.9860
2025-07-22 05:00: 0.9855
2025-07-22 06:00: 0.9860
2025-07-22 07:00: 0.9860
2025-07-22 08:00: 0.9860
2025-07-22 09:00: 0.9860
2025-07-22 10:00: 0.9855
2025-07-22 11:00: 0.9235
2025-07-22 12:00: 0.9525
2025-07-22 13:00: 0.9660
2025-07-22 14:00: 0.9605
2025-07-22 15:00: 0.9610
2025-07-22 16:00: 0.9535
2025-07-22 17:00: 0.9475
2025-07-22 18:00: 0.9960
2025-07-22 19:00: 0.9980
2025-07-22 20:00: 0.9980
2025-07-22 21:00: 0.9980
2025-07-22 22:00: 0.9985
2025-07-22 23:00: 0.9995
2025-07-23 00:00: 0.9995
Trade Summary: No trades available

Output: No


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 515796
Question: Will  Alice Weidel be the next Chancellor of Germany?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 7815463.900607
Price History:
2024-12-16 16:00: 0.0600
2024-12-16 21:00: 0.0375
2024-12-17 02:00: 0.0370
2024-12-17 07:00: 0.0355
2024-12-17 12:00: 0.0385
2024-12-17 17:00: 0.0315
2024-12-17 22:00: 0.0285
2024-12-18 03:00: 0.0280
2024-12-18 08:00: 0.0260
2024-12-18 13:00: 0.0260
2024-12-18 18:00: 0.0275
2024-12-18 23:00: 0.0275
2024-12-19 04:00: 0.0275
2024-12-19 09:00: 0.0270
2024-12-19 14:00: 0.0285
2024-12-19 19:00: 0.0280
2024-12-20 00:00: 0.0285
2024-12-20 05:00: 0.0230
2024-12-20 10:00: 0.0315
2024-12-20 15:00: 0.0305
2024-12-20 20:00: 0.0520
2024-12-21 01:00: 0.0570
2024-12-21 06:00: 0.0565
2024-12-21 11:00: 0.0520
2024-12-21 16:00: 0.0510
2024-12-21 21:00: 0.0470
2024-12-22 02:00: 0.0530
2024-12-22 07:00: 0.0600
2024-12-22 12:00: 0.0675
2024-12-22 17:00: 0.0530
2024-12-22 22:00: 0.0800
2024-12-23 03:00: 0.0715
2024-12-23 08:00: 0.0745
2024-12-23 13:00: 0.0820
2024-12-23 18:00: 0.0765
2024-12-23 23:00: 0.0730
2024-12-24 04:00: 0.0670
2024-12-24 09:00: 0.0585
2024-12-24 14:00: 0.0575
2024-12-24 19:00: 0.0590
2024-12-25 00:00: 0.0580
2024-12-25 05:00: 0.0550
2024-12-25 10:00: 0.0520
2024-12-25 15:00: 0.0530
2024-12-25 20:00: 0.0515
2024-12-26 01:00: 0.0515
2024-12-26 06:00: 0.0500
2024-12-26 11:00: 0.0480
2024-12-26 16:00: 0.0495
2024-12-26 21:00: 0.0500
Trade Summary: Total trades: 1000000, Buy volume: 23968684.33, Sell volume: 78744185.06, Average price: 0.7763, Price range: 0.0010 - 0.9990

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 515796
Question: Will  Alice Weidel be the next Chancellor of Germany?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 7815463.900607
Price History:
2024-12-27 12:00: 0.0490
2024-12-27 17:00: 0.0550
2024-12-27 22:00: 0.0540
2024-12-28 03:00: 0.0510
2024-12-28 08:00: 0.0470
2024-12-28 13:00: 0.0470
2024-12-28 18:00: 0.0455
2024-12-28 23:00: 0.0465
2024-12-29 04:00: 0.0445
2024-12-29 09:00: 0.0445
2024-12-29 14:00: 0.0435
2024-12-29 19:00: 0.0430
2024-12-30 00:00: 0.0440
2024-12-30 05:00: 0.0410
2024-12-30 10:00: 0.0380
2024-12-30 15:00: 0.0430
2024-12-30 20:00: 0.0430
2024-12-31 01:00: 0.0425
2024-12-31 06:00: 0.0465
2024-12-31 11:00: 0.0445
2024-12-31 16:00: 0.0450
2024-12-31 21:00: 0.0440
2025-01-01 02:00: 0.0425
2025-01-01 07:00: 0.0435
2025-01-01 12:00: 0.0475
2025-01-01 17:00: 0.0485
2025-01-01 22:00: 0.0405
2025-01-02 03:00: 0.0390
2025-01-02 08:00: 0.0445
2025-01-02 13:00: 0.0445
2025-01-02 18:00: 0.0470
2025-01-02 23:00: 0.0495
2025-01-03 04:00: 0.0565
2025-01-03 09:00: 0.0535
2025-01-03 14:00: 0.0585
2025-01-03 19:00: 0.0535
2025-01-04 00:00: 0.0540
2025-01-04 05:00: 0.0555
2025-01-04 10:00: 0.0595
2025-01-04 15:00: 0.0705
2025-01-04 20:00: 0.0640
2025-01-05 01:00: 0.0635
2025-01-05 06:00: 0.0640
2025-01-05 11:00: 0.0670
2025-01-05 16:00: 0.0695
2025-01-05 21:00: 0.0645
2025-01-06 02:00: 0.0645
2025-01-06 07:00: 0.0685
2025-01-06 12:00: 0.0685
2025-01-06 17:00: 0.0645
Trade Summary: Total trades: 1000000, Buy volume: 23968684.33, Sell volume: 78744185.06, Average price: 0.7763, Price range: 0.0010 - 0.9990

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 515796
Question: Will  Alice Weidel be the next Chancellor of Germany?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 7815463.900607
Price History:
2025-01-07 08:00: 0.0665
2025-01-07 13:00: 0.0685
2025-01-07 18:00: 0.0790
2025-01-07 23:00: 0.0770
2025-01-08 04:00: 0.0770
2025-01-08 09:00: 0.0810
2025-01-08 14:00: 0.0815
2025-01-08 19:00: 0.0820
2025-01-09 00:00: 0.0760
2025-01-09 05:00: 0.0780
2025-01-09 10:00: 0.0775
2025-01-09 15:00: 0.0760
2025-01-09 20:00: 0.0765
2025-01-10 01:00: 0.0770
2025-01-10 06:00: 0.0770
2025-01-10 11:00: 0.0765
2025-01-10 16:00: 0.0645
2025-01-10 21:00: 0.0635
2025-01-11 02:00: 0.0590
2025-01-11 07:00: 0.0580
2025-01-11 12:00: 0.0660
2025-01-11 17:00: 0.0645
2025-01-11 22:00: 0.0645
2025-01-12 03:00: 0.0640
2025-01-12 08:00: 0.0615
2025-01-12 13:00: 0.0615
2025-01-12 18:00: 0.0620
2025-01-12 23:00: 0.0605
2025-01-13 04:00: 0.0605
2025-01-13 09:00: 0.0650
2025-01-13 14:00: 0.0650
2025-01-13 19:00: 0.0645
2025-01-14 00:00: 0.0645
2025-01-14 05:00: 0.0630
2025-01-14 10:00: 0.0615
2025-01-14 15:00: 0.0635
2025-01-14 20:00: 0.0620
2025-01-15 01:00: 0.0620
2025-01-15 06:00: 0.0615
2025-01-15 11:00: 0.0630
2025-01-15 16:00: 0.0640
2025-01-15 21:00: 0.0660
2025-01-16 02:00: 0.0660
2025-01-16 07:00: 0.0645
2025-01-16 12:00: 0.0655
2025-01-16 17:00: 0.0630
2025-01-16 22:00: 0.0625
2025-01-17 03:00: 0.0610
2025-01-17 08:00: 0.0545
2025-01-17 13:00: 0.0620
Trade Summary: Total trades: 1000000, Buy volume: 23968684.33, Sell volume: 78744185.06, Average price: 0.7763, Price range: 0.0010 - 0.9990

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 515796
Question: Will  Alice Weidel be the next Chancellor of Germany?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 7815463.900607
Price History:
2025-01-18 04:00: 0.0655
2025-01-18 09:00: 0.0660
2025-01-18 14:00: 0.0640
2025-01-18 19:00: 0.0625
2025-01-19 00:00: 0.0635
2025-01-19 05:00: 0.0635
2025-01-19 10:00: 0.0655
2025-01-19 15:00: 0.0680
2025-01-19 20:00: 0.0690
2025-01-20 01:00: 0.0690
2025-01-20 06:00: 0.0650
2025-01-20 11:00: 0.0640
2025-01-20 16:00: 0.0590
2025-01-20 21:00: 0.0575
2025-01-21 02:00: 0.0535
2025-01-21 07:00: 0.0490
2025-01-21 12:00: 0.0600
2025-01-21 17:00: 0.0525
2025-01-21 22:00: 0.0350
2025-01-22 03:00: 0.0450
2025-01-22 08:00: 0.0380
2025-01-22 13:00: 0.0395
2025-01-22 18:00: 0.0450
2025-01-22 23:00: 0.0445
2025-01-23 04:00: 0.0450
2025-01-23 09:00: 0.0450
2025-01-23 14:00: 0.0425
2025-01-23 19:00: 0.0380
2025-01-24 00:00: 0.0355
2025-01-24 05:00: 0.0355
2025-01-24 10:00: 0.0350
2025-01-24 15:00: 0.0345
2025-01-24 20:00: 0.0335
2025-01-25 01:00: 0.0305
2025-01-25 06:00: 0.0095
2025-01-25 11:00: 0.0240
2025-01-25 16:00: 0.0340
2025-01-25 21:00: 0.0330
2025-01-26 02:00: 0.0310
2025-01-26 07:00: 0.0255
2025-01-26 12:00: 0.0295
2025-01-26 17:00: 0.0295
2025-01-26 22:00: 0.0295
2025-01-27 03:00: 0.0255
2025-01-27 08:00: 0.0335
2025-01-27 13:00: 0.0335
2025-01-27 18:00: 0.0280
2025-01-27 23:00: 0.0295
2025-01-28 04:00: 0.0330
2025-01-28 09:00: 0.0315
Trade Summary: Total trades: 1000000, Buy volume: 23968684.33, Sell volume: 78744185.06, Average price: 0.7763, Price range: 0.0010 - 0.9990

Output: Yes