Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 537661
Question: Will Karoline Leavitt say "TikTok" during next White House press briefing?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 905.985072
Price History:
2025-04-20 02:00: 0.5150
2025-04-20 03:00: 0.4850
2025-04-20 03:00: 0.5150
2025-04-20 04:00: 0.4850
2025-04-20 04:00: 0.5150
2025-04-20 05:00: 0.4850
2025-04-20 05:00: 0.5150
2025-04-20 06:00: 0.4850
2025-04-20 06:00: 0.5150
2025-04-20 07:00: 0.4850
2025-04-20 07:00: 0.5150
2025-04-20 08:00: 0.4650
2025-04-20 08:00: 0.5350
2025-04-20 09:00: 0.4650
2025-04-20 09:00: 0.5350
Trade Summary: Total trades: 9, Buy volume: 705.99, Sell volume: 200.00, Average price: 0.7668, Price range: 0.5100 - 0.9910

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 537661
Question: Will Karoline Leavitt say "TikTok" during next White House press briefing?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 905.985072
Price History:
2025-04-20 10:00: 0.4650
2025-04-20 10:00: 0.5350
2025-04-20 11:00: 0.4650
2025-04-20 11:00: 0.5350
2025-04-20 12:00: 0.4650
2025-04-20 12:00: 0.5350
2025-04-20 13:00: 0.4650
2025-04-20 13:00: 0.5350
2025-04-20 14:00: 0.4600
2025-04-20 14:00: 0.5400
2025-04-20 15:00: 0.4600
2025-04-20 15:00: 0.5400
2025-04-20 16:00: 0.4600
2025-04-20 16:00: 0.5400
2025-04-20 17:00: 0.4600
Trade Summary: Total trades: 9, Buy volume: 705.99, Sell volume: 200.00, Average price: 0.7668, Price range: 0.5100 - 0.9910

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 537661
Question: Will Karoline Leavitt say "TikTok" during next White House press briefing?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 905.985072
Price History:
2025-04-20 17:00: 0.5400
2025-04-20 18:00: 0.4600
2025-04-20 18:00: 0.5400
2025-04-20 19:00: 0.4600
2025-04-20 19:00: 0.5400
2025-04-20 20:00: 0.4600
2025-04-20 20:00: 0.5400
2025-04-20 21:00: 0.4600
2025-04-20 21:00: 0.5400
2025-04-20 22:00: 0.4600
2025-04-20 22:00: 0.5400
2025-04-20 23:00: 0.4600
2025-04-20 23:00: 0.5400
2025-04-21 00:00: 0.4600
2025-04-21 00:00: 0.5400
Trade Summary: Total trades: 9, Buy volume: 705.99, Sell volume: 200.00, Average price: 0.7668, Price range: 0.5100 - 0.9910

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 537661
Question: Will Karoline Leavitt say "TikTok" during next White House press briefing?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 905.985072
Price History:
2025-04-21 01:00: 0.4600
2025-04-21 01:00: 0.5400
2025-04-21 02:00: 0.4500
2025-04-21 02:00: 0.5500
2025-04-21 03:00: 0.4500
2025-04-21 03:00: 0.5500
2025-04-21 04:00: 0.4500
2025-04-21 04:00: 0.5500
2025-04-21 05:00: 0.4500
2025-04-21 05:00: 0.5500
2025-04-21 06:00: 0.4500
2025-04-21 06:00: 0.5500
2025-04-21 07:00: 0.4500
2025-04-21 07:00: 0.5500
2025-04-21 08:00: 0.5300
Trade Summary: Total trades: 9, Buy volume: 705.99, Sell volume: 200.00, Average price: 0.7668, Price range: 0.5100 - 0.9910

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 537661
Question: Will Karoline Leavitt say "TikTok" during next White House press briefing?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 905.985072
Price History:
2025-04-21 08:00: 0.4700
2025-04-21 09:00: 0.4500
2025-04-21 09:00: 0.5500
2025-04-21 10:00: 0.4500
2025-04-21 10:00: 0.5500
2025-04-21 11:00: 0.4500
2025-04-21 11:00: 0.5500
2025-04-21 12:00: 0.4800
2025-04-21 12:00: 0.5200
2025-04-21 13:00: 0.4800
2025-04-21 13:00: 0.5200
2025-04-21 14:00: 0.4800
2025-04-21 14:00: 0.5200
2025-04-21 15:00: 0.4800
2025-04-21 15:00: 0.5200
Trade Summary: Total trades: 3, Buy volume: 201.49, Sell volume: 0.00, Average price: 0.5633, Price range: 0.5100 - 0.6700

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 537661
Question: Will Karoline Leavitt say "TikTok" during next White House press briefing?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 905.985072
Price History:
2025-04-21 16:00: 0.4450
2025-04-21 16:00: 0.5550
2025-04-21 17:00: 0.4450
2025-04-21 17:00: 0.5550
2025-04-21 18:00: 0.4450
2025-04-21 18:00: 0.5550
2025-04-21 19:00: 0.4450
2025-04-21 19:00: 0.5550
2025-04-21 20:00: 0.4450
2025-04-21 20:00: 0.5550
2025-04-21 21:00: 0.4450
2025-04-21 21:00: 0.5550
2025-04-21 22:00: 0.4450
2025-04-21 22:00: 0.5550
2025-04-21 23:00: 0.2650
Trade Summary: Total trades: 1, Buy volume: 303.00, Sell volume: 0.00, Average price: 0.6106, Price range: 0.6106 - 0.6106

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 537661
Question: Will Karoline Leavitt say "TikTok" during next White House press briefing?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 905.985072
Price History:
2025-04-21 23:00: 0.7350
2025-04-22 00:00: 0.2650
2025-04-22 00:00: 0.7350
2025-04-22 01:00: 0.2650
2025-04-22 01:00: 0.7350
2025-04-22 02:00: 0.2650
2025-04-22 02:00: 0.7350
2025-04-22 03:00: 0.2150
2025-04-22 03:00: 0.7850
2025-04-22 04:00: 0.2150
2025-04-22 04:00: 0.7850
2025-04-22 05:00: 0.2150
2025-04-22 05:00: 0.7850
2025-04-22 06:00: 0.2150
2025-04-22 06:00: 0.7850
Trade Summary: Total trades: 9, Buy volume: 705.99, Sell volume: 200.00, Average price: 0.7668, Price range: 0.5100 - 0.9910

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 537661
Question: Will Karoline Leavitt say "TikTok" during next White House press briefing?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 905.985072
Price History:
2025-04-22 07:00: 0.2050
2025-04-22 07:00: 0.7950
2025-04-22 08:00: 0.2150
2025-04-22 08:00: 0.7850
2025-04-22 09:00: 0.2150
2025-04-22 09:00: 0.7850
2025-04-22 10:00: 0.2200
2025-04-22 10:00: 0.7800
2025-04-22 11:00: 0.2300
2025-04-22 11:00: 0.7700
2025-04-22 12:00: 0.2750
2025-04-22 12:00: 0.7250
2025-04-22 13:00: 0.2200
2025-04-22 13:00: 0.7800
2025-04-22 14:00: 0.0045
Trade Summary: Total trades: 3, Buy volume: 200.00, Sell volume: 0.00, Average price: 0.9800, Price range: 0.9600 - 0.9900

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 537661
Question: Will Karoline Leavitt say "TikTok" during next White House press briefing?
Volume: 905.985072
Price History:
2025-04-18 13:00: 0.4000
2025-04-18 13:00: 0.6000
2025-04-18 14:00: 0.3750
2025-04-18 14:00: 0.6250
2025-04-18 15:00: 0.3750
2025-04-18 15:00: 0.6250
2025-04-18 16:00: 0.3750
2025-04-18 16:00: 0.6250
2025-04-18 17:00: 0.3700
2025-04-18 17:00: 0.6300
2025-04-18 18:00: 0.3650
2025-04-18 18:00: 0.6350
2025-04-18 19:00: 0.3650
2025-04-18 19:00: 0.6350
2025-04-18 20:00: 0.3400
Trade Summary: Total trades: 9, Buy volume: 705.99, Sell volume: 200.00, Average price: 0.7668, Price range: 0.5100 - 0.9910
Manipulation Indicators Detected: None

Output: No


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 537661
Question: Will Karoline Leavitt say "TikTok" during next White House press briefing?
Volume: 905.985072
Price History:
2025-04-18 20:00: 0.6600
2025-04-18 21:00: 0.3400
2025-04-18 21:00: 0.6600
2025-04-18 22:00: 0.3400
2025-04-18 22:00: 0.6600
2025-04-18 23:00: 0.3400
2025-04-18 23:00: 0.6600
2025-04-19 00:00: 0.3400
2025-04-19 00:00: 0.6600
2025-04-19 01:00: 0.3400
2025-04-19 01:00: 0.6600
2025-04-19 02:00: 0.3400
2025-04-19 02:00: 0.6600
2025-04-19 03:00: 0.3400
2025-04-19 03:00: 0.6600
Trade Summary: Total trades: 9, Buy volume: 705.99, Sell volume: 200.00, Average price: 0.7668, Price range: 0.5100 - 0.9910
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility

Output: No


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 537661
Question: Will Karoline Leavitt say "TikTok" during next White House press briefing?
Volume: 905.985072
Price History:
2025-04-19 04:00: 0.3400
2025-04-19 04:00: 0.6600
2025-04-19 05:00: 0.3400
2025-04-19 05:00: 0.6600
2025-04-19 06:00: 0.3400
2025-04-19 06:00: 0.6600
2025-04-19 07:00: 0.3400
2025-04-19 07:00: 0.6600
2025-04-19 08:00: 0.3400
2025-04-19 08:00: 0.6600
2025-04-19 09:00: 0.3400
2025-04-19 09:00: 0.6600
2025-04-19 10:00: 0.3400
2025-04-19 10:00: 0.6600
2025-04-19 11:00: 0.3400
Trade Summary: Total trades: 9, Buy volume: 705.99, Sell volume: 200.00, Average price: 0.7668, Price range: 0.5100 - 0.9910
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility

Output: No


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 537661
Question: Will Karoline Leavitt say "TikTok" during next White House press briefing?
Volume: 905.985072
Price History:
2025-04-19 11:00: 0.6600
2025-04-19 12:00: 0.4850
2025-04-19 12:00: 0.5150
2025-04-19 13:00: 0.4850
2025-04-19 13:00: 0.5150
2025-04-19 14:00: 0.4850
2025-04-19 14:00: 0.5150
2025-04-19 15:00: 0.4850
2025-04-19 15:00: 0.5150
2025-04-19 16:00: 0.4850
2025-04-19 16:00: 0.5150
2025-04-19 17:00: 0.4850
2025-04-19 17:00: 0.5150
2025-04-19 18:00: 0.4850
2025-04-19 18:00: 0.5150
Trade Summary: Total trades: 1, Buy volume: 1.49, Sell volume: 0.00, Average price: 0.6700, Price range: 0.6700 - 0.6700
Manipulation Indicators Detected: None

Output: No


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 537661
Question: Will Karoline Leavitt say "TikTok" during next White House press briefing?
Volume: 905.985072
Price History:
2025-04-19 19:00: 0.4850
2025-04-19 19:00: 0.5150
2025-04-19 20:00: 0.4850
2025-04-19 20:00: 0.5150
2025-04-19 21:00: 0.4850
2025-04-19 21:00: 0.5150
2025-04-19 22:00: 0.4850
2025-04-19 22:00: 0.5150
2025-04-19 23:00: 0.4850
2025-04-19 23:00: 0.5150
2025-04-20 00:00: 0.4850
2025-04-20 00:00: 0.5150
2025-04-20 01:00: 0.4850
2025-04-20 01:00: 0.5150
2025-04-20 02:00: 0.4850
Trade Summary: Total trades: 9, Buy volume: 705.99, Sell volume: 200.00, Average price: 0.7668, Price range: 0.5100 - 0.9910
Manipulation Indicators Detected: None

Output: No


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 537661
Question: Will Karoline Leavitt say "TikTok" during next White House press briefing?
Volume: 905.985072
Price History:
2025-04-20 02:00: 0.5150
2025-04-20 03:00: 0.4850
2025-04-20 03:00: 0.5150
2025-04-20 04:00: 0.4850
2025-04-20 04:00: 0.5150
2025-04-20 05:00: 0.4850
2025-04-20 05:00: 0.5150
2025-04-20 06:00: 0.4850
2025-04-20 06:00: 0.5150
2025-04-20 07:00: 0.4850
2025-04-20 07:00: 0.5150
2025-04-20 08:00: 0.4650
2025-04-20 08:00: 0.5350
2025-04-20 09:00: 0.4650
2025-04-20 09:00: 0.5350
Trade Summary: Total trades: 9, Buy volume: 705.99, Sell volume: 200.00, Average price: 0.7668, Price range: 0.5100 - 0.9910
Manipulation Indicators Detected: None

Output: No


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 537661
Question: Will Karoline Leavitt say "TikTok" during next White House press briefing?
Volume: 905.985072
Price History:
2025-04-20 10:00: 0.4650
2025-04-20 10:00: 0.5350
2025-04-20 11:00: 0.4650
2025-04-20 11:00: 0.5350
2025-04-20 12:00: 0.4650
2025-04-20 12:00: 0.5350
2025-04-20 13:00: 0.4650
2025-04-20 13:00: 0.5350
2025-04-20 14:00: 0.4600
2025-04-20 14:00: 0.5400
2025-04-20 15:00: 0.4600
2025-04-20 15:00: 0.5400
2025-04-20 16:00: 0.4600
2025-04-20 16:00: 0.5400
2025-04-20 17:00: 0.4600
Trade Summary: Total trades: 9, Buy volume: 705.99, Sell volume: 200.00, Average price: 0.7668, Price range: 0.5100 - 0.9910
Manipulation Indicators Detected: None

Output: No


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 537661
Question: Will Karoline Leavitt say "TikTok" during next White House press briefing?
Volume: 905.985072
Price History:
2025-04-20 17:00: 0.5400
2025-04-20 18:00: 0.4600
2025-04-20 18:00: 0.5400
2025-04-20 19:00: 0.4600
2025-04-20 19:00: 0.5400
2025-04-20 20:00: 0.4600
2025-04-20 20:00: 0.5400
2025-04-20 21:00: 0.4600
2025-04-20 21:00: 0.5400
2025-04-20 22:00: 0.4600
2025-04-20 22:00: 0.5400
2025-04-20 23:00: 0.4600
2025-04-20 23:00: 0.5400
2025-04-21 00:00: 0.4600
2025-04-21 00:00: 0.5400
Trade Summary: Total trades: 9, Buy volume: 705.99, Sell volume: 200.00, Average price: 0.7668, Price range: 0.5100 - 0.9910
Manipulation Indicators Detected: None

Output: No


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 537661
Question: Will Karoline Leavitt say "TikTok" during next White House press briefing?
Volume: 905.985072
Price History:
2025-04-21 01:00: 0.4600
2025-04-21 01:00: 0.5400
2025-04-21 02:00: 0.4500
2025-04-21 02:00: 0.5500
2025-04-21 03:00: 0.4500
2025-04-21 03:00: 0.5500
2025-04-21 04:00: 0.4500
2025-04-21 04:00: 0.5500
2025-04-21 05:00: 0.4500
2025-04-21 05:00: 0.5500
2025-04-21 06:00: 0.4500
2025-04-21 06:00: 0.5500
2025-04-21 07:00: 0.4500
2025-04-21 07:00: 0.5500
2025-04-21 08:00: 0.5300
Trade Summary: Total trades: 9, Buy volume: 705.99, Sell volume: 200.00, Average price: 0.7668, Price range: 0.5100 - 0.9910
Manipulation Indicators Detected: None

Output: No


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 537661
Question: Will Karoline Leavitt say "TikTok" during next White House press briefing?
Volume: 905.985072
Price History:
2025-04-21 08:00: 0.4700
2025-04-21 09:00: 0.4500
2025-04-21 09:00: 0.5500
2025-04-21 10:00: 0.4500
2025-04-21 10:00: 0.5500
2025-04-21 11:00: 0.4500
2025-04-21 11:00: 0.5500
2025-04-21 12:00: 0.4800
2025-04-21 12:00: 0.5200
2025-04-21 13:00: 0.4800
2025-04-21 13:00: 0.5200
2025-04-21 14:00: 0.4800
2025-04-21 14:00: 0.5200
2025-04-21 15:00: 0.4800
2025-04-21 15:00: 0.5200
Trade Summary: Total trades: 3, Buy volume: 201.49, Sell volume: 0.00, Average price: 0.5633, Price range: 0.5100 - 0.6700
Manipulation Indicators Detected: None

Output: No


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 537661
Question: Will Karoline Leavitt say "TikTok" during next White House press briefing?
Volume: 905.985072
Price History:
2025-04-21 16:00: 0.4450
2025-04-21 16:00: 0.5550
2025-04-21 17:00: 0.4450
2025-04-21 17:00: 0.5550
2025-04-21 18:00: 0.4450
2025-04-21 18:00: 0.5550
2025-04-21 19:00: 0.4450
2025-04-21 19:00: 0.5550
2025-04-21 20:00: 0.4450
2025-04-21 20:00: 0.5550
2025-04-21 21:00: 0.4450
2025-04-21 21:00: 0.5550
2025-04-21 22:00: 0.4450
2025-04-21 22:00: 0.5550
2025-04-21 23:00: 0.2650
Trade Summary: Total trades: 1, Buy volume: 303.00, Sell volume: 0.00, Average price: 0.6106, Price range: 0.6106 - 0.6106
Manipulation Indicators Detected: None

Output: No


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 537661
Question: Will Karoline Leavitt say "TikTok" during next White House press briefing?
Volume: 905.985072
Price History:
2025-04-21 23:00: 0.7350
2025-04-22 00:00: 0.2650
2025-04-22 00:00: 0.7350
2025-04-22 01:00: 0.2650
2025-04-22 01:00: 0.7350
2025-04-22 02:00: 0.2650
2025-04-22 02:00: 0.7350
2025-04-22 03:00: 0.2150
2025-04-22 03:00: 0.7850
2025-04-22 04:00: 0.2150
2025-04-22 04:00: 0.7850
2025-04-22 05:00: 0.2150
2025-04-22 05:00: 0.7850
2025-04-22 06:00: 0.2150
2025-04-22 06:00: 0.7850
Trade Summary: Total trades: 9, Buy volume: 705.99, Sell volume: 200.00, Average price: 0.7668, Price range: 0.5100 - 0.9910
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 537661
Question: Will Karoline Leavitt say "TikTok" during next White House press briefing?
Volume: 905.985072
Price History:
2025-04-22 07:00: 0.2050
2025-04-22 07:00: 0.7950
2025-04-22 08:00: 0.2150
2025-04-22 08:00: 0.7850
2025-04-22 09:00: 0.2150
2025-04-22 09:00: 0.7850
2025-04-22 10:00: 0.2200
2025-04-22 10:00: 0.7800
2025-04-22 11:00: 0.2300
2025-04-22 11:00: 0.7700
2025-04-22 12:00: 0.2750
2025-04-22 12:00: 0.7250
2025-04-22 13:00: 0.2200
2025-04-22 13:00: 0.7800
2025-04-22 14:00: 0.0045
Trade Summary: Total trades: 3, Buy volume: 200.00, Sell volume: 0.00, Average price: 0.9800, Price range: 0.9600 - 0.9900
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 518490
Question: Bayrou out as French PM in 2025?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 138580.074974
Price History:
2025-01-14 16:00: 0.5450
2025-01-15 00:00: 0.4450
2025-01-15 09:00: 0.6300
2025-01-15 17:00: 0.3000
2025-01-16 02:00: 0.7000
2025-01-16 10:00: 0.3750
2025-01-16 19:00: 0.6150
2025-01-17 03:00: 0.3750
2025-01-17 12:00: 0.6700
2025-01-17 20:00: 0.2900
2025-01-18 05:00: 0.6650
2025-01-18 13:00: 0.3300
2025-01-18 22:00: 0.6750
2025-01-19 06:00: 0.3250
2025-01-19 15:00: 0.6650
2025-01-19 23:00: 0.2800
2025-01-20 08:00: 0.7050
2025-01-20 16:00: 0.3050
2025-01-21 01:00: 0.6450
2025-01-21 09:00: 0.3500
2025-01-21 18:00: 0.6600
2025-01-22 02:00: 0.3400
2025-01-22 11:00: 0.6650
2025-01-22 19:00: 0.3350
2025-01-23 04:00: 0.6650
2025-01-23 12:00: 0.3350
2025-01-23 21:00: 0.6650
2025-01-24 05:00: 0.3350
2025-01-24 14:00: 0.6650
2025-01-24 22:00: 0.3350
2025-01-25 07:00: 0.6650
2025-01-25 15:00: 0.3350
2025-01-26 00:00: 0.6650
2025-01-26 08:00: 0.3350
2025-01-26 17:00: 0.6600
2025-01-27 01:00: 0.3400
2025-01-27 10:00: 0.6700
2025-01-27 18:00: 0.3300
2025-01-28 03:00: 0.6700
2025-01-28 11:00: 0.3250
2025-01-28 20:00: 0.6750
2025-01-29 04:00: 0.3250
2025-01-29 13:00: 0.6800
2025-01-29 21:00: 0.3150
2025-01-30 06:00: 0.7100
2025-01-30 14:00: 0.2750
2025-01-30 23:00: 0.7250
2025-01-31 07:00: 0.2650
2025-01-31 16:00: 0.7600
2025-02-01 00:00: 0.2250
Trade Summary: Total trades: 102, Buy volume: 6390.66, Sell volume: 1923.85, Average price: 0.5419, Price range: 0.2000 - 0.8100

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 518490
Question: Bayrou out as French PM in 2025?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 138580.074974
Price History:
2025-02-01 23:00: 0.7800
2025-02-02 07:00: 0.2250
2025-02-02 16:00: 0.7700
2025-02-03 00:00: 0.2300
2025-02-03 09:00: 0.7650
2025-02-03 17:00: 0.2550
2025-02-04 02:00: 0.7350
2025-02-04 10:00: 0.2800
2025-02-04 19:00: 0.6850
2025-02-05 03:00: 0.3100
2025-02-05 12:00: 0.6500
2025-02-05 20:00: 0.3500
2025-02-06 05:00: 0.6450
2025-02-06 13:00: 0.3550
2025-02-06 22:00: 0.6300
2025-02-07 06:00: 0.3700
2025-02-07 15:00: 0.6300
2025-02-07 23:00: 0.3750
2025-02-08 08:00: 0.6300
2025-02-08 16:00: 0.3750
2025-02-09 01:00: 0.6300
2025-02-09 09:00: 0.3800
2025-02-09 18:00: 0.6200
2025-02-10 02:00: 0.3800
2025-02-10 11:00: 0.6300
2025-02-10 19:00: 0.3700
2025-02-11 04:00: 0.6300
2025-02-11 12:00: 0.3300
2025-02-11 21:00: 0.6850
2025-02-12 05:00: 0.3100
2025-02-12 14:00: 0.7650
2025-02-12 22:00: 0.2400
2025-02-13 07:00: 0.7600
2025-02-13 15:00: 0.2400
2025-02-14 00:00: 0.7600
2025-02-14 08:00: 0.2400
2025-02-14 17:00: 0.7500
2025-02-15 01:00: 0.2450
2025-02-15 10:00: 0.8000
2025-02-15 18:00: 0.2800
2025-02-16 03:00: 0.7800
2025-02-16 11:00: 0.2400
2025-02-16 20:00: 0.7750
2025-02-17 04:00: 0.2200
2025-02-17 13:00: 0.7650
2025-02-17 21:00: 0.2450
2025-02-18 06:00: 0.7550
2025-02-18 14:00: 0.2500
2025-02-18 23:00: 0.7400
2025-02-19 07:00: 0.2750
Trade Summary: Total trades: 66, Buy volume: 7232.38, Sell volume: 3127.63, Average price: 0.4994, Price range: 0.1800 - 0.7700

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 518490
Question: Bayrou out as French PM in 2025?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 138580.074974
Price History:
2025-02-20 06:00: 0.7450
2025-02-20 14:00: 0.2550
2025-02-20 23:00: 0.7450
2025-02-21 07:00: 0.2550
2025-02-21 16:00: 0.7450
2025-02-22 00:00: 0.2550
2025-02-22 09:00: 0.7450
2025-02-22 17:00: 0.2850
2025-02-23 02:00: 0.7450
2025-02-23 10:00: 0.2600
2025-02-23 19:00: 0.7450
2025-02-24 03:00: 0.2550
2025-02-24 12:00: 0.7300
2025-02-24 20:00: 0.2750
2025-02-25 05:00: 0.7300
2025-02-25 13:00: 0.2750
2025-02-25 22:00: 0.7250
2025-02-26 06:00: 0.2550
2025-02-26 15:00: 0.7450
2025-02-26 23:00: 0.2600
2025-02-27 08:00: 0.7400
2025-02-27 16:00: 0.2600
2025-02-28 01:00: 0.7350
2025-02-28 09:00: 0.2650
2025-02-28 18:00: 0.7350
2025-03-01 02:00: 0.2600
2025-03-01 11:00: 0.7400
2025-03-01 19:00: 0.2600
2025-03-02 04:00: 0.7400
2025-03-02 12:00: 0.2550
2025-03-02 21:00: 0.7450
2025-03-03 05:00: 0.2550
2025-03-03 14:00: 0.7450
2025-03-03 22:00: 0.2550
2025-03-04 07:00: 0.7450
2025-03-04 15:00: 0.2550
2025-03-05 00:00: 0.7450
2025-03-05 08:00: 0.2550
2025-03-05 17:00: 0.7450
2025-03-06 01:00: 0.2550
2025-03-06 10:00: 0.7450
2025-03-06 18:00: 0.2550
2025-03-07 03:00: 0.7450
2025-03-07 11:00: 0.2550
2025-03-07 20:00: 0.7450
2025-03-08 04:00: 0.2550
2025-03-08 13:00: 0.7450
2025-03-08 21:00: 0.2550
2025-03-09 07:00: 0.7450
2025-03-09 15:00: 0.2550
Trade Summary: Total trades: 20, Buy volume: 619.84, Sell volume: 786.06, Average price: 0.5268, Price range: 0.2400 - 0.7600

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 518490
Question: Bayrou out as French PM in 2025?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 138580.074974
Price History:
2025-03-10 14:00: 0.7450
2025-03-10 22:00: 0.2550
2025-03-11 07:00: 0.7450
2025-03-11 15:00: 0.2550
2025-03-12 00:00: 0.7450
2025-03-12 08:00: 0.2550
2025-03-12 17:00: 0.7450
2025-03-13 01:00: 0.2550
2025-03-13 10:00: 0.7300
2025-03-13 18:00: 0.2650
2025-03-14 03:00: 0.7350
2025-03-14 11:00: 0.2650
2025-03-14 20:00: 0.7300
2025-03-15 04:00: 0.2700
2025-03-15 13:00: 0.7300
2025-03-15 21:00: 0.2650
2025-03-16 06:00: 0.7300
2025-03-16 14:00: 0.2700
2025-03-16 23:00: 0.7300
2025-03-17 07:00: 0.2700
2025-03-17 16:00: 0.7500
2025-03-18 00:00: 0.2500
2025-03-18 09:00: 0.7350
2025-03-18 17:00: 0.2650
2025-03-19 02:00: 0.7350
2025-03-19 10:00: 0.2650
2025-03-19 19:00: 0.7350
2025-03-20 03:00: 0.2650
2025-03-20 12:00: 0.7350
2025-03-20 20:00: 0.2500
2025-03-21 05:00: 0.7500
2025-03-21 13:00: 0.2500
2025-03-21 22:00: 0.7500
2025-03-22 06:00: 0.2500
2025-03-22 15:00: 0.7500
2025-03-22 23:00: 0.2500
2025-03-23 08:00: 0.7500
2025-03-23 16:00: 0.2500
2025-03-24 01:00: 0.7500
2025-03-24 09:00: 0.2450
2025-03-24 18:00: 0.7550
2025-03-25 02:00: 0.2450
2025-03-25 11:00: 0.7550
2025-03-25 19:00: 0.1950
2025-03-26 04:00: 0.7950
2025-03-26 12:00: 0.2000
2025-03-26 21:00: 0.7600
2025-03-27 05:00: 0.2450
2025-03-27 14:00: 0.7600
2025-03-27 22:00: 0.2450
Trade Summary: Total trades: 42, Buy volume: 2099.50, Sell volume: 1288.83, Average price: 0.3634, Price range: 0.1804 - 0.7836

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 518490
Question: Bayrou out as French PM in 2025?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 138580.074974
Price History:
2025-03-28 21:00: 0.7550
2025-03-29 05:00: 0.2400
2025-03-29 14:00: 0.7350
2025-03-29 22:00: 0.2650
2025-03-30 07:00: 0.7350
2025-03-30 15:00: 0.2650
2025-03-31 00:00: 0.7350
2025-03-31 08:00: 0.2350
2025-03-31 17:00: 0.7650
2025-04-01 01:00: 0.2350
2025-04-01 10:00: 0.7650
2025-04-01 18:00: 0.2150
2025-04-02 03:00: 0.7800
2025-04-02 11:00: 0.2250
2025-04-02 20:00: 0.7700
2025-04-03 04:00: 0.2250
2025-04-03 13:00: 0.7750
2025-04-03 21:00: 0.2250
2025-04-04 06:00: 0.7750
2025-04-04 14:00: 0.2250
2025-04-04 23:00: 0.7750
2025-04-05 07:00: 0.2200
2025-04-05 16:00: 0.7850
2025-04-06 00:00: 0.2150
2025-04-06 09:00: 0.7850
2025-04-06 17:00: 0.2100
2025-04-07 02:00: 0.7900
2025-04-07 10:00: 0.2200
2025-04-07 19:00: 0.7650
2025-04-08 03:00: 0.2350
2025-04-08 12:00: 0.7100
2025-04-08 20:00: 0.2750
2025-04-09 05:00: 0.7200
2025-04-09 13:00: 0.2950
2025-04-09 22:00: 0.7050
2025-04-10 06:00: 0.2950
2025-04-10 15:00: 0.7050
2025-04-10 23:00: 0.2950
2025-04-11 08:00: 0.7050
2025-04-11 16:00: 0.2950
2025-04-12 01:00: 0.7050
2025-04-12 09:00: 0.2950
2025-04-12 18:00: 0.7050
2025-04-13 02:00: 0.2950
2025-04-13 11:00: 0.7050
2025-04-13 19:00: 0.3050
2025-04-14 04:00: 0.6350
2025-04-14 12:00: 0.3200
2025-04-14 21:00: 0.6800
2025-04-15 05:00: 0.3500
Trade Summary: Total trades: 32, Buy volume: 4970.23, Sell volume: 3551.75, Average price: 0.4369, Price range: 0.2100 - 0.7900

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 518490
Question: Bayrou out as French PM in 2025?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 138580.074974
Price History:
2025-04-16 04:00: 0.6250
2025-04-16 12:00: 0.3800
2025-04-16 21:00: 0.6200
2025-04-17 05:00: 0.3800
2025-04-17 14:00: 0.6200
2025-04-17 22:00: 0.3800
2025-04-18 07:00: 0.6200
2025-04-18 15:00: 0.3800
2025-04-19 00:00: 0.6200
2025-04-19 08:00: 0.3800
2025-04-19 17:00: 0.6200
2025-04-20 01:00: 0.3800
2025-04-20 10:00: 0.6200
2025-04-20 18:00: 0.3800
2025-04-21 03:00: 0.6200
2025-04-21 11:00: 0.3800
2025-04-21 20:00: 0.6200
2025-04-22 04:00: 0.3800
2025-04-22 13:00: 0.7200
2025-04-22 21:00: 0.2450
2025-04-23 06:00: 0.7400
2025-04-23 14:00: 0.2650
2025-04-23 23:00: 0.7400
2025-04-24 07:00: 0.2750
2025-04-24 16:00: 0.5900
2025-04-25 00:00: 0.4350
2025-04-25 09:00: 0.6200
2025-04-25 17:00: 0.3700
2025-04-26 02:00: 0.6350
2025-04-26 10:00: 0.3650
2025-04-26 19:00: 0.6450
2025-04-27 03:00: 0.3550
2025-04-27 12:00: 0.6450
2025-04-27 20:00: 0.3550
2025-04-28 05:00: 0.6450
2025-04-28 13:00: 0.3550
2025-04-28 22:00: 0.6300
2025-04-29 06:00: 0.3700
2025-04-29 15:00: 0.6450
2025-04-29 23:00: 0.3550
2025-04-30 08:00: 0.6300
2025-04-30 16:00: 0.3700
2025-05-01 01:00: 0.6300
2025-05-01 09:00: 0.3700
2025-05-01 18:00: 0.6250
2025-05-02 02:00: 0.3750
2025-05-02 11:00: 0.6250
2025-05-02 19:00: 0.3750
2025-05-03 04:00: 0.6250
2025-05-03 12:00: 0.3750
Trade Summary: Total trades: 34, Buy volume: 4035.41, Sell volume: 477.57, Average price: 0.5309, Price range: 0.2700 - 0.7626

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 518490
Question: Bayrou out as French PM in 2025?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 138580.074974
Price History:
2025-05-04 11:00: 0.6250
2025-05-04 19:00: 0.3750
2025-05-05 04:00: 0.6250
2025-05-05 12:00: 0.3650
2025-05-05 21:00: 0.6400
2025-05-06 05:00: 0.3600
2025-05-06 14:00: 0.6350
2025-05-06 22:00: 0.3650
2025-05-07 07:00: 0.6450
2025-05-07 15:00: 0.3550
2025-05-08 00:00: 0.6450
2025-05-08 08:00: 0.3550
2025-05-08 17:00: 0.6450
2025-05-09 01:00: 0.3600
2025-05-09 10:00: 0.6400
2025-05-09 18:00: 0.3600
2025-05-10 03:00: 0.6400
2025-05-10 11:00: 0.3600
2025-05-10 20:00: 0.6400
2025-05-11 04:00: 0.3600
2025-05-11 13:00: 0.6450
2025-05-11 21:00: 0.3550
2025-05-12 06:00: 0.6450
2025-05-12 14:00: 0.3550
2025-05-12 23:00: 0.6500
2025-05-13 07:00: 0.3550
2025-05-13 16:00: 0.6500
2025-05-14 00:00: 0.3550
2025-05-14 09:00: 0.6450
2025-05-14 17:00: 0.3550
2025-05-15 02:00: 0.6450
2025-05-15 10:00: 0.3550
2025-05-15 19:00: 0.6450
2025-05-16 03:00: 0.3500
2025-05-16 12:00: 0.6500
2025-05-16 20:00: 0.3500
2025-05-17 05:00: 0.6500
2025-05-17 13:00: 0.3500
2025-05-17 22:00: 0.6500
2025-05-18 06:00: 0.3500
2025-05-18 15:00: 0.6500
2025-05-18 23:00: 0.3500
2025-05-19 08:00: 0.6500
2025-05-19 16:00: 0.3500
2025-05-20 01:00: 0.6500
2025-05-20 09:00: 0.3500
2025-05-20 18:00: 0.6500
2025-05-21 02:00: 0.3500
2025-05-21 11:00: 0.6500
2025-05-21 19:00: 0.3500
Trade Summary: Total trades: 19, Buy volume: 653.11, Sell volume: 1848.81, Average price: 0.4628, Price range: 0.3400 - 0.6600

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 518490
Question: Bayrou out as French PM in 2025?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 138580.074974
Price History:
2025-05-22 18:00: 0.6400
2025-05-23 02:00: 0.3600
2025-05-23 11:00: 0.6400
2025-05-23 19:00: 0.3650
2025-05-24 04:00: 0.6350
2025-05-24 12:00: 0.3650
2025-05-24 21:00: 0.6350
2025-05-25 05:00: 0.3650
2025-05-25 14:00: 0.5450
2025-05-25 22:00: 0.4800
2025-05-26 07:00: 0.5200
2025-05-26 15:00: 0.5000
2025-05-27 00:00: 0.4950
2025-05-27 08:00: 0.5200
2025-05-27 17:00: 0.4650
2025-05-28 01:00: 0.5250
2025-05-28 10:00: 0.4650
2025-05-28 18:00: 0.5350
2025-05-29 03:00: 0.4650
2025-05-29 11:00: 0.5250
2025-05-29 20:00: 0.4750
2025-05-30 04:00: 0.5200
2025-05-30 13:00: 0.5000
2025-05-30 21:00: 0.5000
2025-05-31 06:00: 0.5000
2025-05-31 14:00: 0.4850
2025-05-31 23:00: 0.5200
2025-06-01 07:00: 0.4800
2025-06-01 16:00: 0.5300
2025-06-02 00:00: 0.4250
2025-06-02 09:00: 0.5450
2025-06-02 17:00: 0.4500
2025-06-03 02:00: 0.5250
2025-06-03 10:00: 0.4700
2025-06-03 19:00: 0.5300
2025-06-04 03:00: 0.4700
2025-06-04 12:00: 0.5300
2025-06-04 20:00: 0.4500
2025-06-05 05:00: 0.5400
2025-06-05 13:00: 0.4800
2025-06-05 22:00: 0.5100
2025-06-06 06:00: 0.4900
2025-06-06 15:00: 0.5100
2025-06-06 23:00: 0.4850
2025-06-07 08:00: 0.5150
2025-06-07 16:00: 0.4850
2025-06-08 01:00: 0.5150
2025-06-08 09:00: 0.4850
2025-06-08 18:00: 0.5150
2025-06-09 02:00: 0.4850
Trade Summary: Total trades: 37, Buy volume: 3572.47, Sell volume: 573.34, Average price: 0.4808, Price range: 0.3600 - 0.5700

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 518490
Question: Bayrou out as French PM in 2025?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 138580.074974
Price History:
2025-06-10 01:00: 0.5050
2025-06-10 09:00: 0.4900
2025-06-10 18:00: 0.5100
2025-06-11 02:00: 0.4900
2025-06-11 11:00: 0.5100
2025-06-11 19:00: 0.4900
2025-06-12 04:00: 0.5100
2025-06-12 12:00: 0.4950
2025-06-12 21:00: 0.5050
2025-06-13 06:00: 0.4950
2025-06-13 15:00: 0.5050
2025-06-13 23:00: 0.5450
2025-06-14 08:00: 0.2200
2025-06-14 16:00: 0.6600
2025-06-15 01:00: 0.3400
2025-06-15 09:00: 0.6250
2025-06-15 18:00: 0.3750
2025-06-16 02:00: 0.6350
2025-06-16 11:00: 0.3650
2025-06-16 19:00: 0.6350
2025-06-17 04:00: 0.3750
2025-06-17 12:00: 0.6300
2025-06-17 21:00: 0.3950
2025-06-18 05:00: 0.6200
2025-06-18 14:00: 0.3850
2025-06-18 22:00: 0.6000
2025-06-19 07:00: 0.4050
2025-06-19 15:00: 0.5500
2025-06-20 00:00: 0.4500
2025-06-20 08:00: 0.5550
2025-06-20 17:00: 0.4150
2025-06-21 01:00: 0.5850
2025-06-21 10:00: 0.4200
2025-06-21 18:00: 0.5700
2025-06-22 03:00: 0.4550
2025-06-22 11:00: 0.5350
2025-06-22 20:00: 0.4650
2025-06-23 04:00: 0.5450
2025-06-23 13:00: 0.4550
2025-06-23 21:00: 0.5650
2025-06-24 06:00: 0.4200
2025-06-24 14:00: 0.5700
2025-06-24 23:00: 0.4650
2025-06-25 07:00: 0.5250
2025-06-25 16:00: 0.4750
2025-06-26 00:00: 0.5350
2025-06-26 09:00: 0.4950
2025-06-26 17:00: 0.5050
2025-06-27 02:00: 0.4950
2025-06-27 10:00: 0.5050
Trade Summary: Total trades: 62, Buy volume: 5750.19, Sell volume: 2984.67, Average price: 0.5084, Price range: 0.2400 - 0.7997

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 518490
Question: Bayrou out as French PM in 2025?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 138580.074974
Price History:
2025-06-28 09:00: 0.4950
2025-06-28 17:00: 0.5050
2025-06-29 02:00: 0.5000
2025-06-29 10:00: 0.4950
2025-06-29 19:00: 0.4450
2025-06-30 03:00: 0.5500
2025-06-30 12:00: 0.4550
2025-06-30 20:00: 0.5500
2025-07-01 05:00: 0.4500
2025-07-01 13:00: 0.5500
2025-07-01 22:00: 0.4350
2025-07-02 06:00: 0.5750
2025-07-02 15:00: 0.4500
2025-07-02 23:00: 0.5600
2025-07-03 08:00: 0.4450
2025-07-03 16:00: 0.5650
2025-07-04 01:00: 0.4350
2025-07-04 09:00: 0.5050
2025-07-04 18:00: 0.5200
2025-07-05 02:00: 0.4600
2025-07-05 11:00: 0.5350
2025-07-05 19:00: 0.4650
2025-07-06 04:00: 0.5450
2025-07-06 12:00: 0.4600
2025-07-06 21:00: 0.5000
2025-07-07 05:00: 0.4950
2025-07-07 14:00: 0.5150
2025-07-07 22:00: 0.4850
2025-07-08 07:00: 0.5050
2025-07-08 15:00: 0.4950
2025-07-09 00:00: 0.5050
2025-07-09 08:00: 0.4950
2025-07-09 17:00: 0.5100
2025-07-10 01:00: 0.4900
2025-07-10 10:00: 0.5100
2025-07-10 18:00: 0.4950
2025-07-11 03:00: 0.5050
2025-07-11 11:00: 0.4950
2025-07-11 20:00: 0.5050
2025-07-12 04:00: 0.4700
2025-07-12 13:00: 0.5300
2025-07-12 21:00: 0.4650
2025-07-13 06:00: 0.5350
2025-07-13 14:00: 0.4650
2025-07-13 23:00: 0.5350
2025-07-14 07:00: 0.4650
2025-07-14 16:00: 0.5300
2025-07-15 00:00: 0.4650
2025-07-15 09:00: 0.5200
2025-07-15 17:00: 0.2850
Trade Summary: Total trades: 104, Buy volume: 4709.57, Sell volume: 3422.09, Average price: 0.4757, Price range: 0.2341 - 0.7613

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 518490
Question: Bayrou out as French PM in 2025?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 138580.074974
Price History:
2025-07-16 16:00: 0.6250
2025-07-17 00:00: 0.3150
2025-07-17 09:00: 0.6600
2025-07-17 17:00: 0.3400
2025-07-18 02:00: 0.6600
2025-07-18 10:00: 0.3350
2025-07-18 19:00: 0.6750
2025-07-19 03:00: 0.3800
2025-07-19 12:00: 0.6100
2025-07-19 20:00: 0.4550
2025-07-20 05:00: 0.5450
2025-07-20 13:00: 0.4000
2025-07-20 22:00: 0.6050
2025-07-21 06:00: 0.3850
2025-07-21 15:00: 0.6050
2025-07-21 23:00: 0.3950
2025-07-22 08:00: 0.6000
2025-07-22 16:00: 0.4000
2025-07-23 01:00: 0.6050
2025-07-23 08:00: 0.4050
2025-07-23 17:00: 0.5950
2025-07-24 01:00: 0.4050
2025-07-24 10:00: 0.5950
2025-07-24 18:00: 0.3950
2025-07-25 03:00: 0.6100
2025-07-25 11:00: 0.3950
2025-07-25 20:00: 0.6050
2025-07-26 04:00: 0.3950
2025-07-26 13:00: 0.6050
2025-07-26 21:00: 0.3950
2025-07-27 06:00: 0.6050
2025-07-27 14:00: 0.3600
2025-07-27 23:00: 0.6350
2025-07-28 07:00: 0.3300
2025-07-28 16:00: 0.6700
2025-07-29 00:00: 0.3350
2025-07-29 09:00: 0.6600
2025-07-29 17:00: 0.3750
2025-07-30 02:00: 0.6300
2025-07-30 10:00: 0.3150
2025-07-30 19:00: 0.6800
2025-07-31 03:00: 0.3150
2025-07-31 12:00: 0.6750
2025-07-31 20:00: 0.3250
2025-08-01 05:00: 0.6750
2025-08-01 13:00: 0.3300
2025-08-01 22:00: 0.6700
2025-08-02 06:00: 0.3300
2025-08-02 15:00: 0.6700
2025-08-02 23:00: 0.3450
Trade Summary: Total trades: 109, Buy volume: 5016.96, Sell volume: 3809.54, Average price: 0.4724, Price range: 0.3197 - 0.6900

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 518490
Question: Bayrou out as French PM in 2025?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 138580.074974
Price History:
2025-08-03 22:00: 0.6400
2025-08-04 06:00: 0.3700
2025-08-04 15:00: 0.5850
2025-08-04 23:00: 0.4100
2025-08-05 08:00: 0.6050
2025-08-05 16:00: 0.3900
2025-08-06 01:00: 0.6100
2025-08-06 09:00: 0.3650
2025-08-06 18:00: 0.6550
2025-08-07 02:00: 0.3450
2025-08-07 11:00: 0.3450
2025-08-07 19:00: 0.6400
2025-08-08 04:00: 0.6400
2025-08-08 12:00: 0.3550
2025-08-08 21:00: 0.6450
2025-08-09 05:00: 0.3550
2025-08-09 14:00: 0.6400
2025-08-09 22:00: 0.3750
2025-08-10 07:00: 0.3850
2025-08-10 15:00: 0.6600
2025-08-11 00:00: 0.6300
2025-08-11 08:00: 0.3350
2025-08-11 17:00: 0.6050
2025-08-12 01:00: 0.3700
2025-08-12 10:00: 0.6150
2025-08-12 18:00: 0.3850
2025-08-13 03:00: 0.6250
2025-08-13 11:00: 0.3250
2025-08-13 20:00: 0.6900
2025-08-14 04:00: 0.3350
2025-08-14 13:00: 0.6700
2025-08-14 21:00: 0.3300
2025-08-15 06:00: 0.3300
2025-08-15 14:00: 0.3350
2025-08-15 23:00: 0.6650
2025-08-16 07:00: 0.6500
2025-08-16 16:00: 0.3450
2025-08-17 00:00: 0.6400
2025-08-17 09:00: 0.6450
2025-08-17 17:00: 0.3550
2025-08-18 02:00: 0.6400
2025-08-18 10:00: 0.6400
2025-08-18 19:00: 0.3150
2025-08-19 03:00: 0.3550
2025-08-19 12:00: 0.3550
2025-08-19 20:00: 0.3550
2025-08-20 05:00: 0.3550
2025-08-20 13:00: 0.3550
2025-08-20 22:00: 0.3550
2025-08-21 06:00: 0.3500
Trade Summary: Total trades: 76, Buy volume: 3113.65, Sell volume: 3077.48, Average price: 0.4654, Price range: 0.3200 - 0.6800

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 518490
Question: Bayrou out as French PM in 2025?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 138580.074974
Price History:
2025-08-22 05:00: 0.6100
2025-08-22 13:00: 0.5700
2025-08-22 22:00: 0.4650
2025-08-23 06:00: 0.5650
2025-08-23 15:00: 0.4250
2025-08-23 23:00: 0.5750
2025-08-24 08:00: 0.5650
2025-08-24 16:00: 0.4300
2025-08-25 01:00: 0.5750
2025-08-25 09:00: 0.4250
2025-08-25 18:00: 0.8800
2025-08-26 01:00: 0.1500
2025-08-26 10:00: 0.8800
2025-08-26 18:00: 0.8850
2025-08-27 03:00: 0.1150
2025-08-27 11:00: 0.8850
2025-08-27 20:00: 0.0600
2025-08-28 04:00: 0.0650
2025-08-28 13:00: 0.9550
2025-08-28 21:00: 0.0450
2025-08-29 06:00: 0.0400
2025-08-29 14:00: 0.9450
2025-08-29 23:00: 0.0500
2025-08-30 07:00: 0.9500
2025-08-30 16:00: 0.9500
2025-08-31 00:00: 0.0450
2025-08-31 09:00: 0.0450
2025-08-31 17:00: 0.0450
2025-09-01 02:00: 0.0500
2025-09-01 10:00: 0.0310
2025-09-01 19:00: 0.9625
2025-09-02 03:00: 0.0410
2025-09-02 12:00: 0.9595
2025-09-02 20:00: 0.0355
2025-09-03 05:00: 0.9645
2025-09-03 13:00: 0.9655
2025-09-03 22:00: 0.9655
2025-09-04 06:00: 0.9655
2025-09-04 15:00: 0.0345
2025-09-04 23:00: 0.0315
2025-09-05 08:00: 0.0295
2025-09-05 16:00: 0.9695
2025-09-06 01:00: 0.9685
2025-09-06 09:00: 0.0310
2025-09-06 18:00: 0.9735
2025-09-07 02:00: 0.9725
2025-09-07 11:00: 0.0305
2025-09-07 19:00: 0.9710
2025-09-08 04:00: 0.9815
2025-09-08 12:00: 0.0200
Trade Summary: Total trades: 275, Buy volume: 47147.29, Sell volume: 16337.20, Average price: 0.7368, Price range: 0.0010 - 0.9990

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 518490
Question: Bayrou out as French PM in 2025?
Volume: 138580.074974
Price History:
2025-01-14 16:00: 0.5450
2025-01-15 06:00: 0.4250
2025-01-15 21:00: 0.7100
2025-01-16 11:00: 0.3900
2025-01-17 02:00: 0.6250
2025-01-17 16:00: 0.3300
2025-01-18 07:00: 0.6650
2025-01-18 21:00: 0.3300
2025-01-19 12:00: 0.6500
2025-01-20 02:00: 0.2900
2025-01-20 17:00: 0.6600
2025-01-21 07:00: 0.3500
2025-01-21 22:00: 0.6600
2025-01-22 12:00: 0.3350
2025-01-23 03:00: 0.6650
2025-01-23 17:00: 0.3350
2025-01-24 08:00: 0.6650
2025-01-24 22:00: 0.3350
2025-01-25 13:00: 0.6650
2025-01-26 03:00: 0.3350
2025-01-26 18:00: 0.6600
2025-01-27 08:00: 0.3300
2025-01-27 23:00: 0.6700
2025-01-28 13:00: 0.3250
2025-01-29 04:00: 0.6750
2025-01-29 18:00: 0.3150
2025-01-30 09:00: 0.7850
2025-01-30 23:00: 0.2750
2025-01-31 14:00: 0.7350
2025-02-01 04:00: 0.2150
Trade Summary: Total trades: 102, Buy volume: 6390.66, Sell volume: 1923.85, Average price: 0.5419, Price range: 0.2000 - 0.8100
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike, wash_trading

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 518490
Question: Bayrou out as French PM in 2025?
Volume: 138580.074974
Price History:
2025-02-01 23:00: 0.7800
2025-02-02 13:00: 0.2300
2025-02-03 04:00: 0.7700
2025-02-03 18:00: 0.2550
2025-02-04 09:00: 0.7300
2025-02-04 23:00: 0.3100
2025-02-05 14:00: 0.6500
2025-02-06 04:00: 0.3550
2025-02-06 19:00: 0.6450
2025-02-07 09:00: 0.3700
2025-02-08 00:00: 0.6250
2025-02-08 14:00: 0.3750
2025-02-09 05:00: 0.6200
2025-02-09 19:00: 0.3800
2025-02-10 10:00: 0.6300
2025-02-11 00:00: 0.3700
2025-02-11 15:00: 0.6700
2025-02-12 05:00: 0.3100
2025-02-12 20:00: 0.7750
2025-02-13 10:00: 0.2400
2025-02-14 01:00: 0.7600
2025-02-14 15:00: 0.2500
2025-02-15 06:00: 0.7600
2025-02-15 20:00: 0.2600
2025-02-16 11:00: 0.7600
2025-02-17 01:00: 0.2300
2025-02-17 16:00: 0.7650
2025-02-18 06:00: 0.2450
2025-02-18 21:00: 0.7400
2025-02-19 11:00: 0.2650
Trade Summary: Total trades: 66, Buy volume: 7232.38, Sell volume: 3127.63, Average price: 0.4994, Price range: 0.1800 - 0.7700
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike, wash_trading

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 518490
Question: Bayrou out as French PM in 2025?
Volume: 138580.074974
Price History:
2025-02-20 06:00: 0.7450
2025-02-20 20:00: 0.2550
2025-02-21 11:00: 0.7450
2025-02-22 01:00: 0.2550
2025-02-22 16:00: 0.7400
2025-02-23 06:00: 0.2600
2025-02-23 21:00: 0.7450
2025-02-24 11:00: 0.2550
2025-02-25 02:00: 0.7250
2025-02-25 16:00: 0.2750
2025-02-26 07:00: 0.7450
2025-02-26 21:00: 0.2600
2025-02-27 12:00: 0.7400
2025-02-28 02:00: 0.2650
2025-02-28 17:00: 0.7350
2025-03-01 07:00: 0.2600
2025-03-01 22:00: 0.7400
2025-03-02 12:00: 0.2550
2025-03-03 03:00: 0.7450
2025-03-03 17:00: 0.2550
2025-03-04 08:00: 0.7450
2025-03-04 22:00: 0.2550
2025-03-05 13:00: 0.7450
2025-03-06 03:00: 0.2550
2025-03-06 18:00: 0.7450
2025-03-07 08:00: 0.2550
2025-03-07 23:00: 0.7450
2025-03-08 13:00: 0.2550
2025-03-09 05:00: 0.7450
2025-03-09 19:00: 0.2550
Trade Summary: Total trades: 20, Buy volume: 619.84, Sell volume: 786.06, Average price: 0.5268, Price range: 0.2400 - 0.7600
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility

Output: No


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 518490
Question: Bayrou out as French PM in 2025?
Volume: 138580.074974
Price History:
2025-03-10 14:00: 0.7450
2025-03-11 04:00: 0.2550
2025-03-11 19:00: 0.7450
2025-03-12 09:00: 0.2550
2025-03-13 00:00: 0.7450
2025-03-13 14:00: 0.2650
2025-03-14 05:00: 0.7350
2025-03-14 19:00: 0.2700
2025-03-15 10:00: 0.7300
2025-03-16 00:00: 0.2650
2025-03-16 15:00: 0.7300
2025-03-17 05:00: 0.2700
2025-03-17 20:00: 0.7500
2025-03-18 10:00: 0.2650
2025-03-19 01:00: 0.7350
2025-03-19 15:00: 0.2650
2025-03-20 06:00: 0.7350
2025-03-20 20:00: 0.2500
2025-03-21 11:00: 0.7500
2025-03-22 01:00: 0.2500
2025-03-22 16:00: 0.7500
2025-03-23 06:00: 0.2500
2025-03-23 21:00: 0.7500
2025-03-24 11:00: 0.2450
2025-03-25 02:00: 0.7550
2025-03-25 16:00: 0.2000
2025-03-26 07:00: 0.7950
2025-03-26 21:00: 0.2400
2025-03-27 12:00: 0.7550
2025-03-28 02:00: 0.2400
Trade Summary: Total trades: 42, Buy volume: 2099.50, Sell volume: 1288.83, Average price: 0.3634, Price range: 0.1804 - 0.7836
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike, wash_trading

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 518490
Question: Bayrou out as French PM in 2025?
Volume: 138580.074974
Price History:
2025-03-28 21:00: 0.7550
2025-03-29 11:00: 0.2400
2025-03-30 02:00: 0.7350
2025-03-30 16:00: 0.2650
2025-03-31 07:00: 0.7700
2025-03-31 21:00: 0.2350
2025-04-01 12:00: 0.7650
2025-04-02 02:00: 0.2200
2025-04-02 17:00: 0.7700
2025-04-03 07:00: 0.2250
2025-04-03 22:00: 0.7750
2025-04-04 12:00: 0.2100
2025-04-05 03:00: 0.7750
2025-04-05 17:00: 0.2200
2025-04-06 08:00: 0.7850
2025-04-06 22:00: 0.2100
2025-04-07 13:00: 0.7800
2025-04-08 03:00: 0.2350
2025-04-08 18:00: 0.7250
2025-04-09 08:00: 0.2800
2025-04-09 23:00: 0.7050
2025-04-10 13:00: 0.2950
2025-04-11 04:00: 0.7050
2025-04-11 18:00: 0.2950
2025-04-12 09:00: 0.7050
2025-04-12 23:00: 0.2950
2025-04-13 14:00: 0.7050
2025-04-14 04:00: 0.3650
2025-04-14 19:00: 0.6800
2025-04-15 09:00: 0.3500
Trade Summary: Total trades: 32, Buy volume: 4970.23, Sell volume: 3551.75, Average price: 0.4369, Price range: 0.2100 - 0.7900
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 518490
Question: Bayrou out as French PM in 2025?
Volume: 138580.074974
Price History:
2025-04-16 04:00: 0.6250
2025-04-16 18:00: 0.3800
2025-04-17 09:00: 0.6200
2025-04-17 23:00: 0.3800
2025-04-18 14:00: 0.6200
2025-04-19 04:00: 0.3800
2025-04-19 19:00: 0.6200
2025-04-20 09:00: 0.3800
2025-04-21 00:00: 0.6200
2025-04-21 14:00: 0.3700
2025-04-22 05:00: 0.6350
2025-04-22 19:00: 0.2300
2025-04-23 10:00: 0.7450
2025-04-24 00:00: 0.2600
2025-04-24 15:00: 0.5800
2025-04-25 05:00: 0.3800
2025-04-25 20:00: 0.6300
2025-04-26 10:00: 0.3650
2025-04-27 01:00: 0.6450
2025-04-27 15:00: 0.3550
2025-04-28 06:00: 0.6450
2025-04-28 20:00: 0.3700
2025-04-29 11:00: 0.6300
2025-04-30 01:00: 0.3550
2025-04-30 16:00: 0.6300
2025-05-01 06:00: 0.3700
2025-05-01 21:00: 0.6250
2025-05-02 11:00: 0.3750
2025-05-03 02:00: 0.6300
2025-05-03 16:00: 0.3750
Trade Summary: Total trades: 34, Buy volume: 4035.41, Sell volume: 477.57, Average price: 0.5309, Price range: 0.2700 - 0.7626
Manipulation Indicators Detected: price_spike

Output: No


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 518490
Question: Bayrou out as French PM in 2025?
Volume: 138580.074974
Price History:
2025-05-04 11:00: 0.6250
2025-05-05 01:00: 0.3750
2025-05-05 16:00: 0.6350
2025-05-06 06:00: 0.3650
2025-05-06 21:00: 0.6350
2025-05-07 11:00: 0.3550
2025-05-08 02:00: 0.6450
2025-05-08 16:00: 0.3550
2025-05-09 07:00: 0.6400
2025-05-09 21:00: 0.3600
2025-05-10 12:00: 0.6400
2025-05-11 02:00: 0.3600
2025-05-11 17:00: 0.6500
2025-05-12 07:00: 0.3550
2025-05-12 22:00: 0.6500
2025-05-13 12:00: 0.3500
2025-05-14 03:00: 0.6450
2025-05-14 17:00: 0.3550
2025-05-15 08:00: 0.6450
2025-05-15 22:00: 0.3500
2025-05-16 13:00: 0.6500
2025-05-17 03:00: 0.3500
2025-05-17 18:00: 0.6500
2025-05-18 08:00: 0.3500
2025-05-18 23:00: 0.6500
2025-05-19 13:00: 0.3500
2025-05-20 04:00: 0.6500
2025-05-20 18:00: 0.3500
2025-05-21 09:00: 0.6500
2025-05-21 23:00: 0.3550
Trade Summary: Total trades: 19, Buy volume: 653.11, Sell volume: 1848.81, Average price: 0.4628, Price range: 0.3400 - 0.6600
Manipulation Indicators Detected: None

Output: No


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 518490
Question: Bayrou out as French PM in 2025?
Volume: 138580.074974
Price History:
2025-05-22 18:00: 0.6400
2025-05-23 08:00: 0.3600
2025-05-23 23:00: 0.6350
2025-05-24 13:00: 0.3650
2025-05-25 04:00: 0.6350
2025-05-25 18:00: 0.4600
2025-05-26 09:00: 0.5200
2025-05-26 23:00: 0.5250
2025-05-27 14:00: 0.4650
2025-05-28 04:00: 0.5350
2025-05-28 19:00: 0.4700
2025-05-29 09:00: 0.5250
2025-05-30 00:00: 0.4800
2025-05-30 14:00: 0.5000
2025-05-31 05:00: 0.5000
2025-05-31 19:00: 0.4800
2025-06-01 10:00: 0.5150
2025-06-02 00:00: 0.4250
2025-06-02 15:00: 0.5300
2025-06-03 05:00: 0.4700
2025-06-03 20:00: 0.5300
2025-06-04 10:00: 0.4700
2025-06-05 01:00: 0.5400
2025-06-05 15:00: 0.4800
2025-06-06 06:00: 0.5100
2025-06-06 20:00: 0.4850
2025-06-07 11:00: 0.5150
2025-06-08 01:00: 0.4850
2025-06-08 16:00: 0.5150
2025-06-09 06:00: 0.4850
Trade Summary: Total trades: 37, Buy volume: 3572.47, Sell volume: 573.34, Average price: 0.4808, Price range: 0.3600 - 0.5700
Manipulation Indicators Detected: None

Output: No


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 518490
Question: Bayrou out as French PM in 2025?
Volume: 138580.074974
Price History:
2025-06-10 01:00: 0.5050
2025-06-10 15:00: 0.4900
2025-06-11 06:00: 0.5100
2025-06-11 20:00: 0.4900
2025-06-12 11:00: 0.5050
2025-06-13 01:00: 0.4950
2025-06-13 17:00: 0.4650
2025-06-14 07:00: 0.7800
2025-06-14 22:00: 0.3400
2025-06-15 12:00: 0.6300
2025-06-16 03:00: 0.3650
2025-06-16 17:00: 0.6350
2025-06-17 08:00: 0.3500
2025-06-17 22:00: 0.6050
2025-06-18 13:00: 0.3800
2025-06-19 03:00: 0.6050
2025-06-19 18:00: 0.4500
2025-06-20 08:00: 0.5550
2025-06-20 23:00: 0.4150
2025-06-21 13:00: 0.5850
2025-06-22 04:00: 0.4550
2025-06-22 18:00: 0.5450
2025-06-23 09:00: 0.4550
2025-06-23 23:00: 0.5950
2025-06-24 14:00: 0.4300
2025-06-25 04:00: 0.5250
2025-06-25 19:00: 0.4650
2025-06-26 09:00: 0.5050
2025-06-27 00:00: 0.4950
2025-06-27 14:00: 0.5100
Trade Summary: Total trades: 62, Buy volume: 5750.19, Sell volume: 2984.67, Average price: 0.5084, Price range: 0.2400 - 0.7997
Manipulation Indicators Detected: price_spike, wash_trading

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 518490
Question: Bayrou out as French PM in 2025?
Volume: 138580.074974
Price History:
2025-06-28 09:00: 0.4950
2025-06-28 23:00: 0.5050
2025-06-29 14:00: 0.4550
2025-06-30 04:00: 0.5500
2025-06-30 19:00: 0.4450
2025-07-01 09:00: 0.5500
2025-07-02 00:00: 0.4350
2025-07-02 14:00: 0.5500
2025-07-03 05:00: 0.4400
2025-07-03 19:00: 0.5650
2025-07-04 10:00: 0.5000
2025-07-05 00:00: 0.4700
2025-07-05 15:00: 0.5400
2025-07-06 05:00: 0.4550
2025-07-06 20:00: 0.5000
2025-07-07 10:00: 0.4850
2025-07-08 01:00: 0.5100
2025-07-08 15:00: 0.4950
2025-07-09 06:00: 0.5050
2025-07-09 20:00: 0.4900
2025-07-10 11:00: 0.5100
2025-07-11 01:00: 0.4950
2025-07-11 16:00: 0.5150
2025-07-12 06:00: 0.4700
2025-07-12 21:00: 0.5350
2025-07-13 11:00: 0.4650
2025-07-14 02:00: 0.5350
2025-07-14 16:00: 0.4700
2025-07-15 07:00: 0.5500
2025-07-15 21:00: 0.2950
Trade Summary: Total trades: 104, Buy volume: 4709.57, Sell volume: 3422.09, Average price: 0.4757, Price range: 0.2341 - 0.7613
Manipulation Indicators Detected: price_spike, wash_trading

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 518490
Question: Bayrou out as French PM in 2025?
Volume: 138580.074974
Price History:
2025-07-16 16:00: 0.6250
2025-07-17 06:00: 0.3150
2025-07-17 21:00: 0.6600
2025-07-18 11:00: 0.3350
2025-07-19 02:00: 0.6200
2025-07-19 16:00: 0.4100
2025-07-20 07:00: 0.5450
2025-07-20 21:00: 0.3950
2025-07-21 12:00: 0.6150
2025-07-22 02:00: 0.3950
2025-07-22 17:00: 0.6000
2025-07-23 06:00: 0.4050
2025-07-23 21:00: 0.5950
2025-07-24 11:00: 0.4050
2025-07-25 02:00: 0.6100
2025-07-25 16:00: 0.3950
2025-07-26 07:00: 0.6050
2025-07-26 21:00: 0.3950
2025-07-27 12:00: 0.6050
2025-07-28 02:00: 0.3600
2025-07-28 17:00: 0.6700
2025-07-29 07:00: 0.3700
2025-07-29 22:00: 0.6250
2025-07-30 12:00: 0.3250
2025-07-31 03:00: 0.6850
2025-07-31 17:00: 0.3250
2025-08-01 08:00: 0.6700
2025-08-01 22:00: 0.3300
2025-08-02 13:00: 0.6700
2025-08-03 03:00: 0.3450
Trade Summary: Total trades: 109, Buy volume: 5016.96, Sell volume: 3809.54, Average price: 0.4724, Price range: 0.3197 - 0.6900
Manipulation Indicators Detected: wash_trading

Output: No


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 518490
Question: Bayrou out as French PM in 2025?
Volume: 138580.074974
Price History:
2025-08-03 22:00: 0.6400
2025-08-04 12:00: 0.3800
2025-08-05 03:00: 0.5950
2025-08-05 17:00: 0.3900
2025-08-06 08:00: 0.6350
2025-08-06 22:00: 0.3450
2025-08-07 13:00: 0.3600
2025-08-08 03:00: 0.3600
2025-08-08 18:00: 0.6450
2025-08-09 08:00: 0.3700
2025-08-09 23:00: 0.6200
2025-08-10 13:00: 0.3600
2025-08-11 04:00: 0.6200
2025-08-11 18:00: 0.3850
2025-08-12 09:00: 0.6250
2025-08-12 23:00: 0.3750
2025-08-13 14:00: 0.6850
2025-08-14 04:00: 0.3350
2025-08-14 19:00: 0.6700
2025-08-15 09:00: 0.3300
2025-08-16 00:00: 0.6600
2025-08-16 14:00: 0.6550
2025-08-17 05:00: 0.6450
2025-08-17 19:00: 0.3550
2025-08-18 10:00: 0.3600
2025-08-19 00:00: 0.3450
2025-08-19 15:00: 0.6450
2025-08-20 05:00: 0.6450
2025-08-20 20:00: 0.6450
2025-08-21 10:00: 0.3550
Trade Summary: Total trades: 76, Buy volume: 3113.65, Sell volume: 3077.48, Average price: 0.4654, Price range: 0.3200 - 0.6800
Manipulation Indicators Detected: wash_trading

Output: No


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 518490
Question: Bayrou out as French PM in 2025?
Volume: 138580.074974
Price History:
2025-08-22 05:00: 0.6100
2025-08-22 19:00: 0.4550
2025-08-23 10:00: 0.4250
2025-08-24 00:00: 0.5750
2025-08-24 15:00: 0.5700
2025-08-25 05:00: 0.4150
2025-08-25 20:00: 0.8800
2025-08-26 09:00: 0.1100
2025-08-27 00:00: 0.1150
2025-08-27 14:00: 0.8950
2025-08-28 05:00: 0.0650
2025-08-28 19:00: 0.0450
2025-08-29 10:00: 0.0450
2025-08-30 00:00: 0.0500
2025-08-30 15:00: 0.9500
2025-08-31 05:00: 0.9550
2025-08-31 20:00: 0.0500
2025-09-01 10:00: 0.0310
2025-09-02 01:00: 0.9590
2025-09-02 15:00: 0.9615
2025-09-03 06:00: 0.9650
2025-09-03 20:00: 0.0345
2025-09-04 11:00: 0.0335
2025-09-05 01:00: 0.0335
2025-09-05 16:00: 0.0305
2025-09-06 06:00: 0.9685
2025-09-06 21:00: 0.0265
2025-09-07 11:00: 0.9695
2025-09-08 02:00: 0.0185
2025-09-08 16:00: 0.0025
Trade Summary: Total trades: 275, Buy volume: 47147.29, Sell volume: 16337.20, Average price: 0.7368, Price range: 0.0010 - 0.9990
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike, wash_trading

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 581289
Question: Bayrou out as French PM by September 30?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 281577.135409
Price History:
2025-08-26 01:00: 0.6050
2025-08-26 01:00: 0.3950
2025-08-26 02:00: 0.2250
2025-08-26 02:00: 0.7750
2025-08-26 03:00: 0.2400
2025-08-26 03:00: 0.7600
2025-08-26 04:00: 0.2450
2025-08-26 04:00: 0.7550
2025-08-26 05:00: 0.5400
2025-08-26 05:00: 0.4600
2025-08-26 06:00: 0.8150
2025-08-26 06:00: 0.1850
2025-08-26 07:00: 0.8300
2025-08-26 07:00: 0.1700
2025-08-26 08:00: 0.1750
2025-08-26 08:00: 0.8250
2025-08-26 09:00: 0.1700
2025-08-26 09:00: 0.8300
2025-08-26 10:00: 0.8250
2025-08-26 10:00: 0.1750
2025-08-26 11:00: 0.1750
2025-08-26 11:00: 0.8250
2025-08-26 12:00: 0.1650
2025-08-26 12:00: 0.8350
2025-08-26 13:00: 0.8150
2025-08-26 13:00: 0.1850
2025-08-26 14:00: 0.1700
2025-08-26 14:00: 0.8300
2025-08-26 15:00: 0.8300
2025-08-26 15:00: 0.1700
2025-08-26 16:00: 0.1100
2025-08-26 16:00: 0.8900
2025-08-26 17:00: 0.8350
2025-08-26 17:00: 0.1650
2025-08-26 18:00: 0.1600
2025-08-26 18:00: 0.8400
2025-08-26 19:00: 0.1650
2025-08-26 19:00: 0.8350
2025-08-26 20:00: 0.8350
2025-08-26 20:00: 0.1650
2025-08-26 21:00: 0.1800
2025-08-26 21:00: 0.8200
2025-08-26 22:00: 0.1800
2025-08-26 22:00: 0.8200
2025-08-26 23:00: 0.1800
2025-08-26 23:00: 0.8200
2025-08-27 00:00: 0.8200
2025-08-27 00:00: 0.1800
2025-08-27 01:00: 0.1800
2025-08-27 01:00: 0.8200
Trade Summary: Total trades: 86, Buy volume: 15816.73, Sell volume: 250.62, Average price: 0.6003, Price range: 0.1176 - 0.9083

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 581289
Question: Bayrou out as French PM by September 30?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 281577.135409
Price History:
2025-08-27 03:00: 0.8150
2025-08-27 04:00: 0.8200
2025-08-27 04:00: 0.1800
2025-08-27 05:00: 0.8350
2025-08-27 05:00: 0.1650
2025-08-27 06:00: 0.1650
2025-08-27 06:00: 0.8350
2025-08-27 07:00: 0.8600
2025-08-27 07:00: 0.1400
2025-08-27 08:00: 0.1350
2025-08-27 08:00: 0.8650
2025-08-27 09:00: 0.1350
2025-08-27 09:00: 0.8650
2025-08-27 10:00: 0.8650
2025-08-27 10:00: 0.1350
2025-08-27 11:00: 0.8600
2025-08-27 11:00: 0.1400
2025-08-27 12:00: 0.1450
2025-08-27 12:00: 0.8550
2025-08-27 13:00: 0.8700
2025-08-27 13:00: 0.1300
2025-08-27 14:00: 0.1300
2025-08-27 14:00: 0.8700
2025-08-27 15:00: 0.8700
2025-08-27 15:00: 0.1300
2025-08-27 16:00: 0.8700
2025-08-27 16:00: 0.1300
2025-08-27 17:00: 0.8700
2025-08-27 17:00: 0.1300
2025-08-27 18:00: 0.0550
2025-08-27 18:00: 0.9450
2025-08-27 19:00: 0.0500
2025-08-27 19:00: 0.9500
2025-08-27 20:00: 0.9300
2025-08-27 20:00: 0.0700
2025-08-27 21:00: 0.0700
2025-08-27 21:00: 0.9300
2025-08-27 22:00: 0.0700
2025-08-27 22:00: 0.9300
2025-08-27 23:00: 0.0750
2025-08-27 23:00: 0.9250
2025-08-28 00:00: 0.0650
2025-08-28 00:00: 0.9350
2025-08-28 01:00: 0.0650
2025-08-28 01:00: 0.9350
2025-08-28 02:00: 0.9350
2025-08-28 02:00: 0.0650
2025-08-28 03:00: 0.0650
2025-08-28 03:00: 0.9350
2025-08-28 04:00: 0.9400
Trade Summary: Total trades: 83, Buy volume: 25427.15, Sell volume: 3763.44, Average price: 0.4329, Price range: 0.0300 - 0.9600

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 581289
Question: Bayrou out as French PM by September 30?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 281577.135409
Price History:
2025-08-28 06:00: 0.0600
2025-08-28 06:00: 0.9400
2025-08-28 07:00: 0.9150
2025-08-28 07:00: 0.0850
2025-08-28 08:00: 0.1050
2025-08-28 08:00: 0.8950
2025-08-28 09:00: 0.0700
2025-08-28 09:00: 0.9300
2025-08-28 10:00: 0.0700
2025-08-28 10:00: 0.9300
2025-08-28 11:00: 0.0650
2025-08-28 11:00: 0.9350
2025-08-28 12:00: 0.0650
2025-08-28 12:00: 0.9350
2025-08-28 13:00: 0.0750
2025-08-28 13:00: 0.9250
2025-08-28 14:00: 0.0700
2025-08-28 14:00: 0.9300
2025-08-28 15:00: 0.0700
2025-08-28 15:00: 0.9300
2025-08-28 16:00: 0.0700
2025-08-28 16:00: 0.9300
2025-08-28 17:00: 0.0700
2025-08-28 17:00: 0.9300
2025-08-28 18:00: 0.0750
2025-08-28 18:00: 0.9250
2025-08-28 19:00: 0.0700
2025-08-28 19:00: 0.9300
2025-08-28 20:00: 0.0750
2025-08-28 20:00: 0.9250
2025-08-28 21:00: 0.0750
2025-08-28 21:00: 0.9250
2025-08-28 22:00: 0.0750
2025-08-28 22:00: 0.9250
2025-08-28 23:00: 0.0750
2025-08-28 23:00: 0.9250
2025-08-29 00:00: 0.9350
2025-08-29 00:00: 0.0650
2025-08-29 01:00: 0.0650
2025-08-29 01:00: 0.9350
2025-08-29 02:00: 0.0650
2025-08-29 02:00: 0.9350
2025-08-29 03:00: 0.9350
2025-08-29 03:00: 0.0650
2025-08-29 04:00: 0.0650
2025-08-29 04:00: 0.9350
2025-08-29 05:00: 0.0700
2025-08-29 05:00: 0.9300
2025-08-29 06:00: 0.1000
2025-08-29 06:00: 0.9000
Trade Summary: Total trades: 94, Buy volume: 22128.67, Sell volume: 4826.62, Average price: 0.3237, Price range: 0.0508 - 0.9500

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 581289
Question: Bayrou out as French PM by September 30?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 281577.135409
Price History:
2025-08-29 08:00: 0.0750
2025-08-29 09:00: 0.0750
2025-08-29 09:00: 0.9250
2025-08-29 10:00: 0.0750
2025-08-29 10:00: 0.9250
2025-08-29 11:00: 0.0650
2025-08-29 11:00: 0.9350
2025-08-29 12:00: 0.0700
2025-08-29 12:00: 0.9300
2025-08-29 13:00: 0.9250
2025-08-29 13:00: 0.0750
2025-08-29 14:00: 0.9250
2025-08-29 14:00: 0.0750
2025-08-29 15:00: 0.9250
2025-08-29 15:00: 0.0750
2025-08-29 16:00: 0.9250
2025-08-29 16:00: 0.0750
2025-08-29 17:00: 0.9300
2025-08-29 17:00: 0.0700
2025-08-29 18:00: 0.9250
2025-08-29 18:00: 0.0750
2025-08-29 19:00: 0.0850
2025-08-29 19:00: 0.9150
2025-08-29 20:00: 0.0850
2025-08-29 20:00: 0.9150
2025-08-29 21:00: 0.9150
2025-08-29 21:00: 0.0850
2025-08-29 22:00: 0.9150
2025-08-29 22:00: 0.0850
2025-08-29 23:00: 0.9150
2025-08-29 23:00: 0.0850
2025-08-30 00:00: 0.0850
2025-08-30 00:00: 0.9150
2025-08-30 01:00: 0.0850
2025-08-30 01:00: 0.9150
2025-08-30 02:00: 0.0850
2025-08-30 02:00: 0.9150
2025-08-30 03:00: 0.0850
2025-08-30 03:00: 0.9150
2025-08-30 04:00: 0.0800
2025-08-30 04:00: 0.9200
2025-08-30 05:00: 0.0700
2025-08-30 05:00: 0.9300
2025-08-30 06:00: 0.0700
2025-08-30 06:00: 0.9300
2025-08-30 07:00: 0.0700
2025-08-30 07:00: 0.9300
2025-08-30 08:00: 0.0700
2025-08-30 08:00: 0.9300
2025-08-30 09:00: 0.0450
Trade Summary: Total trades: 42, Buy volume: 4616.14, Sell volume: 4319.77, Average price: 0.4827, Price range: 0.0500 - 0.9400

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 581289
Question: Bayrou out as French PM by September 30?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 281577.135409
Price History:
2025-08-30 11:00: 0.0600
2025-08-30 11:00: 0.9400
2025-08-30 12:00: 0.0700
2025-08-30 12:00: 0.9300
2025-08-30 13:00: 0.0700
2025-08-30 13:00: 0.9300
2025-08-30 14:00: 0.9300
2025-08-30 14:00: 0.0700
2025-08-30 15:00: 0.0700
2025-08-30 15:00: 0.9300
2025-08-30 16:00: 0.9250
2025-08-30 16:00: 0.0750
2025-08-30 17:00: 0.0650
2025-08-30 17:00: 0.9350
2025-08-30 18:00: 0.0650
2025-08-30 18:00: 0.9350
2025-08-30 19:00: 0.0650
2025-08-30 19:00: 0.9350
2025-08-30 20:00: 0.9350
2025-08-30 20:00: 0.0650
2025-08-30 21:00: 0.9350
2025-08-30 21:00: 0.0650
2025-08-30 22:00: 0.9350
2025-08-30 22:00: 0.0650
2025-08-30 23:00: 0.9350
2025-08-30 23:00: 0.0650
2025-08-31 00:00: 0.0650
2025-08-31 00:00: 0.9350
2025-08-31 01:00: 0.9350
2025-08-31 01:00: 0.0650
2025-08-31 02:00: 0.9350
2025-08-31 02:00: 0.0650
2025-08-31 03:00: 0.9350
2025-08-31 03:00: 0.0650
2025-08-31 04:00: 0.0600
2025-08-31 04:00: 0.9400
2025-08-31 05:00: 0.0550
2025-08-31 05:00: 0.9450
2025-08-31 06:00: 0.9450
2025-08-31 06:00: 0.0550
2025-08-31 07:00: 0.0550
2025-08-31 07:00: 0.9450
2025-08-31 08:00: 0.0550
2025-08-31 08:00: 0.9450
2025-08-31 09:00: 0.9500
2025-08-31 09:00: 0.0500
2025-08-31 10:00: 0.9450
2025-08-31 10:00: 0.0550
2025-08-31 11:00: 0.9450
2025-08-31 11:00: 0.0550
Trade Summary: Total trades: 38, Buy volume: 4170.93, Sell volume: 454.89, Average price: 0.4829, Price range: 0.0400 - 0.9600

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 581289
Question: Bayrou out as French PM by September 30?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 281577.135409
Price History:
2025-08-31 13:00: 0.9500
2025-08-31 14:00: 0.9500
2025-08-31 14:00: 0.0500
2025-08-31 15:00: 0.0550
2025-08-31 15:00: 0.9450
2025-08-31 16:00: 0.0500
2025-08-31 16:00: 0.9500
2025-08-31 17:00: 0.0500
2025-08-31 17:00: 0.9500
2025-08-31 18:00: 0.0550
2025-08-31 18:00: 0.9450
2025-08-31 19:00: 0.9500
2025-08-31 19:00: 0.0500
2025-08-31 20:00: 0.0450
2025-08-31 20:00: 0.9550
2025-08-31 21:00: 0.9500
2025-08-31 21:00: 0.0500
2025-08-31 22:00: 0.0500
2025-08-31 22:00: 0.9500
2025-08-31 23:00: 0.9500
2025-08-31 23:00: 0.0500
2025-09-01 00:00: 0.9350
2025-09-01 00:00: 0.0650
2025-09-01 01:00: 0.0650
2025-09-01 01:00: 0.9350
2025-09-01 02:00: 0.0650
2025-09-01 02:00: 0.9350
2025-09-01 03:00: 0.9400
2025-09-01 03:00: 0.0600
2025-09-01 04:00: 0.9550
2025-09-01 04:00: 0.0450
2025-09-01 05:00: 0.0550
2025-09-01 05:00: 0.9450
2025-09-01 06:00: 0.0400
2025-09-01 06:00: 0.9600
2025-09-01 07:00: 0.0400
2025-09-01 07:00: 0.9600
2025-09-01 08:00: 0.0405
2025-09-01 08:00: 0.9595
2025-09-01 09:00: 0.0510
2025-09-01 09:00: 0.9490
2025-09-01 10:00: 0.0505
2025-09-01 10:00: 0.9495
2025-09-01 11:00: 0.0510
2025-09-01 11:00: 0.9490
2025-09-01 12:00: 0.9475
2025-09-01 12:00: 0.0525
2025-09-01 13:00: 0.0630
2025-09-01 13:00: 0.9370
2025-09-01 14:00: 0.0650
Trade Summary: Total trades: 31, Buy volume: 3528.23, Sell volume: 1693.88, Average price: 0.6046, Price range: 0.0309 - 0.9650

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 581289
Question: Bayrou out as French PM by September 30?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 281577.135409
Price History:
2025-09-01 16:00: 0.0665
2025-09-01 16:00: 0.9335
2025-09-01 17:00: 0.0670
2025-09-01 17:00: 0.9330
2025-09-01 18:00: 0.0655
2025-09-01 18:00: 0.9345
2025-09-01 19:00: 0.0650
2025-09-01 19:00: 0.9350
2025-09-01 20:00: 0.0650
2025-09-01 20:00: 0.9350
2025-09-01 21:00: 0.0650
2025-09-01 21:00: 0.9350
2025-09-01 22:00: 0.0650
2025-09-01 22:00: 0.9350
2025-09-01 23:00: 0.0650
2025-09-01 23:00: 0.9350
2025-09-02 00:00: 0.9350
2025-09-02 00:00: 0.0650
2025-09-02 01:00: 0.0650
2025-09-02 01:00: 0.9350
2025-09-02 02:00: 0.0660
2025-09-02 02:00: 0.9340
2025-09-02 03:00: 0.0660
2025-09-02 03:00: 0.9340
2025-09-02 04:00: 0.0630
2025-09-02 04:00: 0.9370
2025-09-02 05:00: 0.0630
2025-09-02 05:00: 0.9370
2025-09-02 06:00: 0.9370
2025-09-02 06:00: 0.0630
2025-09-02 07:00: 0.0650
2025-09-02 07:00: 0.9350
2025-09-02 08:00: 0.0655
2025-09-02 08:00: 0.9345
2025-09-02 09:00: 0.9350
2025-09-02 09:00: 0.0650
2025-09-02 10:00: 0.0635
2025-09-02 10:00: 0.9365
2025-09-02 11:00: 0.0635
2025-09-02 11:00: 0.9365
2025-09-02 12:00: 0.0630
2025-09-02 12:00: 0.9370
2025-09-02 13:00: 0.9365
2025-09-02 13:00: 0.0635
2025-09-02 14:00: 0.9365
2025-09-02 14:00: 0.0635
2025-09-02 15:00: 0.9420
2025-09-02 15:00: 0.0580
2025-09-02 16:00: 0.9410
2025-09-02 16:00: 0.0590
Trade Summary: Total trades: 32, Buy volume: 4036.88, Sell volume: 1566.44, Average price: 0.5281, Price range: 0.0538 - 0.9455

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 581289
Question: Bayrou out as French PM by September 30?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 281577.135409
Price History:
2025-09-02 18:00: 0.0560
2025-09-02 19:00: 0.9455
2025-09-02 19:00: 0.0545
2025-09-02 20:00: 0.9440
2025-09-02 20:00: 0.0560
2025-09-02 21:00: 0.9430
2025-09-02 21:00: 0.0570
2025-09-02 22:00: 0.9425
2025-09-02 22:00: 0.0575
2025-09-02 23:00: 0.9440
2025-09-02 23:00: 0.0560
2025-09-03 00:00: 0.0550
2025-09-03 00:00: 0.9450
2025-09-03 01:00: 0.0570
2025-09-03 01:00: 0.9430
2025-09-03 02:00: 0.0565
2025-09-03 02:00: 0.9435
2025-09-03 03:00: 0.0570
2025-09-03 03:00: 0.9430
2025-09-03 04:00: 0.0575
2025-09-03 04:00: 0.9425
2025-09-03 05:00: 0.9435
2025-09-03 05:00: 0.0565
2025-09-03 06:00: 0.9300
2025-09-03 06:00: 0.0700
2025-09-03 07:00: 0.9260
2025-09-03 07:00: 0.0740
2025-09-03 08:00: 0.0680
2025-09-03 08:00: 0.9320
2025-09-03 09:00: 0.0680
2025-09-03 09:00: 0.9320
2025-09-03 10:00: 0.9350
2025-09-03 10:00: 0.0650
2025-09-03 11:00: 0.0505
2025-09-03 11:00: 0.9495
2025-09-03 12:00: 0.0460
2025-09-03 12:00: 0.9540
2025-09-03 13:00: 0.9525
2025-09-03 13:00: 0.0475
2025-09-03 14:00: 0.0465
2025-09-03 14:00: 0.9535
2025-09-03 15:00: 0.0470
2025-09-03 15:00: 0.9530
2025-09-03 16:00: 0.9520
2025-09-03 16:00: 0.0480
2025-09-03 17:00: 0.0455
2025-09-03 17:00: 0.9545
2025-09-03 18:00: 0.9530
2025-09-03 18:00: 0.0465
2025-09-03 19:00: 0.9640
Trade Summary: Total trades: 28, Buy volume: 8361.12, Sell volume: 535.97, Average price: 0.4377, Price range: 0.0336 - 0.9725

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 581289
Question: Bayrou out as French PM by September 30?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 281577.135409
Price History:
2025-09-03 21:00: 0.9645
2025-09-03 21:00: 0.0355
2025-09-03 22:00: 0.0370
2025-09-03 22:00: 0.9630
2025-09-03 23:00: 0.9610
2025-09-03 23:00: 0.0390
2025-09-04 00:00: 0.9600
2025-09-04 00:00: 0.0400
2025-09-04 01:00: 0.9615
2025-09-04 01:00: 0.0385
2025-09-04 02:00: 0.9625
2025-09-04 02:00: 0.0375
2025-09-04 03:00: 0.9535
2025-09-04 03:00: 0.0465
2025-09-04 04:00: 0.9545
2025-09-04 04:00: 0.0455
2025-09-04 05:00: 0.9550
2025-09-04 05:00: 0.0450
2025-09-04 06:00: 0.0450
2025-09-04 06:00: 0.9550
2025-09-04 07:00: 0.0450
2025-09-04 07:00: 0.9550
2025-09-04 08:00: 0.9545
2025-09-04 08:00: 0.0455
2025-09-04 09:00: 0.0450
2025-09-04 09:00: 0.9550
2025-09-04 10:00: 0.0450
2025-09-04 10:00: 0.9550
2025-09-04 11:00: 0.0370
2025-09-04 11:00: 0.9630
2025-09-04 12:00: 0.0350
2025-09-04 12:00: 0.9650
2025-09-04 13:00: 0.9660
2025-09-04 13:00: 0.0340
2025-09-04 14:00: 0.9660
2025-09-04 14:00: 0.0340
2025-09-04 15:00: 0.0340
2025-09-04 15:00: 0.9660
2025-09-04 16:00: 0.0380
2025-09-04 16:00: 0.9620
2025-09-04 17:00: 0.9630
2025-09-04 17:00: 0.0370
2025-09-04 18:00: 0.0375
2025-09-04 18:00: 0.9625
2025-09-04 19:00: 0.0365
2025-09-04 19:00: 0.9635
2025-09-04 20:00: 0.9635
2025-09-04 20:00: 0.0365
2025-09-04 21:00: 0.0365
2025-09-04 21:00: 0.9635
Trade Summary: Total trades: 23, Buy volume: 1467.47, Sell volume: 1710.55, Average price: 0.5587, Price range: 0.0300 - 0.9700

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 581289
Question: Bayrou out as French PM by September 30?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 281577.135409
Price History:
2025-09-04 23:00: 0.0330
2025-09-05 00:00: 0.9670
2025-09-05 00:00: 0.0330
2025-09-05 01:00: 0.9655
2025-09-05 01:00: 0.0345
2025-09-05 02:00: 0.0335
2025-09-05 02:00: 0.9665
2025-09-05 03:00: 0.9665
2025-09-05 03:00: 0.0335
2025-09-05 04:00: 0.0340
2025-09-05 04:00: 0.9660
2025-09-05 05:00: 0.9635
2025-09-05 05:00: 0.0365
2025-09-05 06:00: 0.9630
2025-09-05 06:00: 0.0370
2025-09-05 07:00: 0.9620
2025-09-05 07:00: 0.0380
2025-09-05 08:00: 0.9645
2025-09-05 08:00: 0.0355
2025-09-05 09:00: 0.9655
2025-09-05 09:00: 0.0345
2025-09-05 10:00: 0.9635
2025-09-05 10:00: 0.0365
2025-09-05 11:00: 0.9635
2025-09-05 11:00: 0.0365
2025-09-05 12:00: 0.0365
2025-09-05 12:00: 0.9635
2025-09-05 13:00: 0.0365
2025-09-05 13:00: 0.9635
2025-09-05 14:00: 0.9635
2025-09-05 14:00: 0.0365
2025-09-05 15:00: 0.9630
2025-09-05 15:00: 0.0370
2025-09-05 16:00: 0.9630
2025-09-05 16:00: 0.0370
2025-09-05 17:00: 0.0370
2025-09-05 17:00: 0.9630
2025-09-05 18:00: 0.0370
2025-09-05 18:00: 0.9630
2025-09-05 19:00: 0.9635
2025-09-05 19:00: 0.0365
2025-09-05 20:00: 0.0365
2025-09-05 20:00: 0.9635
2025-09-05 21:00: 0.9635
2025-09-05 21:00: 0.0365
2025-09-05 22:00: 0.9635
2025-09-05 22:00: 0.0365
2025-09-05 23:00: 0.9635
2025-09-05 23:00: 0.0365
2025-09-06 00:00: 0.9675
Trade Summary: Total trades: 13, Buy volume: 3038.95, Sell volume: 1171.97, Average price: 0.5361, Price range: 0.0335 - 0.9669

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 581289
Question: Bayrou out as French PM by September 30?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 281577.135409
Price History:
2025-09-06 02:00: 0.9680
2025-09-06 02:00: 0.0320
2025-09-06 03:00: 0.0320
2025-09-06 03:00: 0.9680
2025-09-06 04:00: 0.9690
2025-09-06 04:00: 0.0310
2025-09-06 05:00: 0.0320
2025-09-06 05:00: 0.9680
2025-09-06 06:00: 0.0455
2025-09-06 06:00: 0.9545
2025-09-06 07:00: 0.0425
2025-09-06 07:00: 0.9575
2025-09-06 08:00: 0.0450
2025-09-06 08:00: 0.9550
2025-09-06 09:00: 0.0420
2025-09-06 09:00: 0.9580
2025-09-06 10:00: 0.0405
2025-09-06 10:00: 0.9595
2025-09-06 11:00: 0.0420
2025-09-06 11:00: 0.9580
2025-09-06 12:00: 0.9595
2025-09-06 12:00: 0.0405
2025-09-06 13:00: 0.0380
2025-09-06 13:00: 0.9620
2025-09-06 14:00: 0.0415
2025-09-06 14:00: 0.9585
2025-09-06 15:00: 0.0410
2025-09-06 15:00: 0.9590
2025-09-06 16:00: 0.0445
2025-09-06 16:00: 0.9555
2025-09-06 17:00: 0.0425
2025-09-06 17:00: 0.9575
2025-09-06 18:00: 0.0425
2025-09-06 18:00: 0.9575
2025-09-06 19:00: 0.0435
2025-09-06 19:00: 0.9565
2025-09-06 20:00: 0.0430
2025-09-06 20:00: 0.9570
2025-09-06 21:00: 0.0440
2025-09-06 21:00: 0.9560
2025-09-06 22:00: 0.0440
2025-09-06 22:00: 0.9560
2025-09-06 23:00: 0.0440
2025-09-06 23:00: 0.9560
2025-09-07 00:00: 0.0440
2025-09-07 00:00: 0.9560
2025-09-07 01:00: 0.0450
2025-09-07 01:00: 0.9550
2025-09-07 02:00: 0.0445
2025-09-07 02:00: 0.9555
Trade Summary: Total trades: 6, Buy volume: 4253.97, Sell volume: 142.85, Average price: 0.5029, Price range: 0.0400 - 0.9623

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 581289
Question: Bayrou out as French PM by September 30?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 281577.135409
Price History:
2025-09-07 04:00: 0.9555
2025-09-07 05:00: 0.9555
2025-09-07 05:00: 0.0445
2025-09-07 06:00: 0.9555
2025-09-07 06:00: 0.0445
2025-09-07 07:00: 0.9555
2025-09-07 07:00: 0.0445
2025-09-07 08:00: 0.0405
2025-09-07 08:00: 0.9595
2025-09-07 09:00: 0.0380
2025-09-07 09:00: 0.9620
2025-09-07 10:00: 0.0405
2025-09-07 10:00: 0.9595
2025-09-07 11:00: 0.9635
2025-09-07 11:00: 0.0365
2025-09-07 12:00: 0.0355
2025-09-07 12:00: 0.9645
2025-09-07 13:00: 0.0365
2025-09-07 13:00: 0.9635
2025-09-07 14:00: 0.0385
2025-09-07 14:00: 0.9615
2025-09-07 15:00: 0.9795
2025-09-07 15:00: 0.0205
2025-09-07 16:00: 0.0165
2025-09-07 16:00: 0.9835
2025-09-07 17:00: 0.0170
2025-09-07 17:00: 0.9830
2025-09-07 18:00: 0.0155
2025-09-07 18:00: 0.9845
2025-09-07 19:00: 0.9840
2025-09-07 19:00: 0.0160
2025-09-07 20:00: 0.0165
2025-09-07 20:00: 0.9835
2025-09-07 21:00: 0.0155
2025-09-07 21:00: 0.9845
2025-09-07 22:00: 0.0160
2025-09-07 22:00: 0.9840
2025-09-07 23:00: 0.0165
2025-09-07 23:00: 0.9835
2025-09-08 00:00: 0.9820
2025-09-08 00:00: 0.0180
2025-09-08 01:00: 0.9815
2025-09-08 01:00: 0.0185
2025-09-08 02:00: 0.0185
2025-09-08 02:00: 0.9815
2025-09-08 03:00: 0.0245
2025-09-08 03:00: 0.9755
2025-09-08 04:00: 0.0245
2025-09-08 04:00: 0.9755
2025-09-08 05:00: 0.0195
Trade Summary: Total trades: 25, Buy volume: 8214.18, Sell volume: 3649.66, Average price: 0.7513, Price range: 0.0230 - 0.9897

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 581289
Question: Bayrou out as French PM by September 30?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 281577.135409
Price History:
2025-09-08 07:00: 0.0225
2025-09-08 07:00: 0.9775
2025-09-08 08:00: 0.0160
2025-09-08 08:00: 0.9840
2025-09-08 09:00: 0.0160
2025-09-08 09:00: 0.9840
2025-09-08 10:00: 0.9820
2025-09-08 10:00: 0.0180
2025-09-08 11:00: 0.0310
2025-09-08 11:00: 0.9690
2025-09-08 12:00: 0.0230
2025-09-08 12:00: 0.9770
2025-09-08 13:00: 0.0250
2025-09-08 13:00: 0.9750
2025-09-08 14:00: 0.0055
2025-09-08 14:00: 0.9945
2025-09-08 15:00: 0.0050
2025-09-08 15:00: 0.9950
2025-09-08 16:00: 0.9970
2025-09-08 16:00: 0.0030
2025-09-08 17:00: 0.9975
2025-09-08 17:00: 0.0025
2025-09-08 18:00: 0.0025
2025-09-08 18:00: 0.9975
2025-09-08 19:00: 0.9975
2025-09-08 19:00: 0.0025
2025-09-08 20:00: 0.0025
2025-09-08 20:00: 0.9975
2025-09-08 21:00: 0.9965
2025-09-08 21:00: 0.0035
2025-09-08 22:00: 0.9935
2025-09-08 22:00: 0.0065
2025-09-08 23:00: 0.0065
2025-09-08 23:00: 0.9935
2025-09-09 00:00: 0.9935
2025-09-09 00:00: 0.0065
2025-09-09 01:00: 0.9935
2025-09-09 01:00: 0.0065
2025-09-09 02:00: 0.0065
2025-09-09 02:00: 0.9935
2025-09-09 03:00: 0.0065
2025-09-09 03:00: 0.9935
2025-09-09 04:00: 0.0060
2025-09-09 04:00: 0.9940
2025-09-09 05:00: 0.0060
2025-09-09 05:00: 0.9940
2025-09-09 06:00: 0.0020
2025-09-09 06:00: 0.9980
2025-09-09 07:00: 0.0015
2025-09-09 07:00: 0.9985
Trade Summary: Total trades: 135, Buy volume: 134988.13, Sell volume: 12477.61, Average price: 0.7573, Price range: 0.0010 - 0.9990

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 581289
Question: Bayrou out as French PM by September 30?
Volume: 281577.135409
Price History:
2025-08-26 01:00: 0.6050
2025-08-26 01:00: 0.3950
2025-08-26 02:00: 0.2250
2025-08-26 02:00: 0.7750
2025-08-26 03:00: 0.2400
2025-08-26 03:00: 0.7600
2025-08-26 04:00: 0.2450
2025-08-26 04:00: 0.7550
2025-08-26 05:00: 0.5400
2025-08-26 05:00: 0.4600
2025-08-26 06:00: 0.8150
2025-08-26 06:00: 0.1850
2025-08-26 07:00: 0.8300
2025-08-26 07:00: 0.1700
2025-08-26 08:00: 0.1750
2025-08-26 08:00: 0.8250
2025-08-26 09:00: 0.1700
2025-08-26 09:00: 0.8300
2025-08-26 10:00: 0.8250
2025-08-26 10:00: 0.1750
2025-08-26 11:00: 0.1750
2025-08-26 11:00: 0.8250
2025-08-26 12:00: 0.1650
2025-08-26 12:00: 0.8350
2025-08-26 13:00: 0.8150
2025-08-26 13:00: 0.1850
2025-08-26 14:00: 0.1700
2025-08-26 14:00: 0.8300
2025-08-26 15:00: 0.8300
2025-08-26 15:00: 0.1700
Trade Summary: Total trades: 86, Buy volume: 15816.73, Sell volume: 250.62, Average price: 0.6003, Price range: 0.1176 - 0.9083
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike, wash_trading

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 581289
Question: Bayrou out as French PM by September 30?
Volume: 281577.135409
Price History:
2025-08-27 03:00: 0.8150
2025-08-27 04:00: 0.8200
2025-08-27 04:00: 0.1800
2025-08-27 05:00: 0.8350
2025-08-27 05:00: 0.1650
2025-08-27 06:00: 0.1650
2025-08-27 06:00: 0.8350
2025-08-27 07:00: 0.8600
2025-08-27 07:00: 0.1400
2025-08-27 08:00: 0.1350
2025-08-27 08:00: 0.8650
2025-08-27 09:00: 0.1350
2025-08-27 09:00: 0.8650
2025-08-27 10:00: 0.8650
2025-08-27 10:00: 0.1350
2025-08-27 11:00: 0.8600
2025-08-27 11:00: 0.1400
2025-08-27 12:00: 0.1450
2025-08-27 12:00: 0.8550
2025-08-27 13:00: 0.8700
2025-08-27 13:00: 0.1300
2025-08-27 14:00: 0.1300
2025-08-27 14:00: 0.8700
2025-08-27 15:00: 0.8700
2025-08-27 15:00: 0.1300
2025-08-27 16:00: 0.8700
2025-08-27 16:00: 0.1300
2025-08-27 17:00: 0.8700
2025-08-27 17:00: 0.1300
2025-08-27 18:00: 0.0550
Trade Summary: Total trades: 83, Buy volume: 25427.15, Sell volume: 3763.44, Average price: 0.4329, Price range: 0.0300 - 0.9600
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike, wash_trading

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 581289
Question: Bayrou out as French PM by September 30?
Volume: 281577.135409
Price History:
2025-08-28 06:00: 0.0600
2025-08-28 06:00: 0.9400
2025-08-28 07:00: 0.9150
2025-08-28 07:00: 0.0850
2025-08-28 08:00: 0.1050
2025-08-28 08:00: 0.8950
2025-08-28 09:00: 0.0700
2025-08-28 09:00: 0.9300
2025-08-28 10:00: 0.0700
2025-08-28 10:00: 0.9300
2025-08-28 11:00: 0.0650
2025-08-28 11:00: 0.9350
2025-08-28 12:00: 0.0650
2025-08-28 12:00: 0.9350
2025-08-28 13:00: 0.0750
2025-08-28 13:00: 0.9250
2025-08-28 14:00: 0.0700
2025-08-28 14:00: 0.9300
2025-08-28 15:00: 0.0700
2025-08-28 15:00: 0.9300
2025-08-28 16:00: 0.0700
2025-08-28 16:00: 0.9300
2025-08-28 17:00: 0.0700
2025-08-28 17:00: 0.9300
2025-08-28 18:00: 0.0750
2025-08-28 18:00: 0.9250
2025-08-28 19:00: 0.0700
2025-08-28 19:00: 0.9300
2025-08-28 20:00: 0.0750
2025-08-28 20:00: 0.9250
Trade Summary: Total trades: 94, Buy volume: 22128.67, Sell volume: 4826.62, Average price: 0.3237, Price range: 0.0508 - 0.9500
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 581289
Question: Bayrou out as French PM by September 30?
Volume: 281577.135409
Price History:
2025-08-29 08:00: 0.0750
2025-08-29 09:00: 0.0750
2025-08-29 09:00: 0.9250
2025-08-29 10:00: 0.0750
2025-08-29 10:00: 0.9250
2025-08-29 11:00: 0.0650
2025-08-29 11:00: 0.9350
2025-08-29 12:00: 0.0700
2025-08-29 12:00: 0.9300
2025-08-29 13:00: 0.9250
2025-08-29 13:00: 0.0750
2025-08-29 14:00: 0.9250
2025-08-29 14:00: 0.0750
2025-08-29 15:00: 0.9250
2025-08-29 15:00: 0.0750
2025-08-29 16:00: 0.9250
2025-08-29 16:00: 0.0750
2025-08-29 17:00: 0.9300
2025-08-29 17:00: 0.0700
2025-08-29 18:00: 0.9250
2025-08-29 18:00: 0.0750
2025-08-29 19:00: 0.0850
2025-08-29 19:00: 0.9150
2025-08-29 20:00: 0.0850
2025-08-29 20:00: 0.9150
2025-08-29 21:00: 0.9150
2025-08-29 21:00: 0.0850
2025-08-29 22:00: 0.9150
2025-08-29 22:00: 0.0850
2025-08-29 23:00: 0.9150
Trade Summary: Total trades: 42, Buy volume: 4616.14, Sell volume: 4319.77, Average price: 0.4827, Price range: 0.0500 - 0.9400
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike, wash_trading

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 581289
Question: Bayrou out as French PM by September 30?
Volume: 281577.135409
Price History:
2025-08-30 11:00: 0.0600
2025-08-30 11:00: 0.9400
2025-08-30 12:00: 0.0700
2025-08-30 12:00: 0.9300
2025-08-30 13:00: 0.0700
2025-08-30 13:00: 0.9300
2025-08-30 14:00: 0.9300
2025-08-30 14:00: 0.0700
2025-08-30 15:00: 0.0700
2025-08-30 15:00: 0.9300
2025-08-30 16:00: 0.9250
2025-08-30 16:00: 0.0750
2025-08-30 17:00: 0.0650
2025-08-30 17:00: 0.9350
2025-08-30 18:00: 0.0650
2025-08-30 18:00: 0.9350
2025-08-30 19:00: 0.0650
2025-08-30 19:00: 0.9350
2025-08-30 20:00: 0.9350
2025-08-30 20:00: 0.0650
2025-08-30 21:00: 0.9350
2025-08-30 21:00: 0.0650
2025-08-30 22:00: 0.9350
2025-08-30 22:00: 0.0650
2025-08-30 23:00: 0.9350
2025-08-30 23:00: 0.0650
2025-08-31 00:00: 0.0650
2025-08-31 00:00: 0.9350
2025-08-31 01:00: 0.9350
2025-08-31 01:00: 0.0650
Trade Summary: Total trades: 38, Buy volume: 4170.93, Sell volume: 454.89, Average price: 0.4829, Price range: 0.0400 - 0.9600
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 581289
Question: Bayrou out as French PM by September 30?
Volume: 281577.135409
Price History:
2025-08-31 13:00: 0.9500
2025-08-31 14:00: 0.9500
2025-08-31 14:00: 0.0500
2025-08-31 15:00: 0.0550
2025-08-31 15:00: 0.9450
2025-08-31 16:00: 0.0500
2025-08-31 16:00: 0.9500
2025-08-31 17:00: 0.0500
2025-08-31 17:00: 0.9500
2025-08-31 18:00: 0.0550
2025-08-31 18:00: 0.9450
2025-08-31 19:00: 0.9500
2025-08-31 19:00: 0.0500
2025-08-31 20:00: 0.0450
2025-08-31 20:00: 0.9550
2025-08-31 21:00: 0.9500
2025-08-31 21:00: 0.0500
2025-08-31 22:00: 0.0500
2025-08-31 22:00: 0.9500
2025-08-31 23:00: 0.9500
2025-08-31 23:00: 0.0500
2025-09-01 00:00: 0.9350
2025-09-01 00:00: 0.0650
2025-09-01 01:00: 0.0650
2025-09-01 01:00: 0.9350
2025-09-01 02:00: 0.0650
2025-09-01 02:00: 0.9350
2025-09-01 03:00: 0.9400
2025-09-01 03:00: 0.0600
2025-09-01 04:00: 0.9550
Trade Summary: Total trades: 31, Buy volume: 3528.23, Sell volume: 1693.88, Average price: 0.6046, Price range: 0.0309 - 0.9650
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike, wash_trading

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 581289
Question: Bayrou out as French PM by September 30?
Volume: 281577.135409
Price History:
2025-09-01 16:00: 0.0665
2025-09-01 16:00: 0.9335
2025-09-01 17:00: 0.0670
2025-09-01 17:00: 0.9330
2025-09-01 18:00: 0.0655
2025-09-01 18:00: 0.9345
2025-09-01 19:00: 0.0650
2025-09-01 19:00: 0.9350
2025-09-01 20:00: 0.0650
2025-09-01 20:00: 0.9350
2025-09-01 21:00: 0.0650
2025-09-01 21:00: 0.9350
2025-09-01 22:00: 0.0650
2025-09-01 22:00: 0.9350
2025-09-01 23:00: 0.0650
2025-09-01 23:00: 0.9350
2025-09-02 00:00: 0.9350
2025-09-02 00:00: 0.0650
2025-09-02 01:00: 0.0650
2025-09-02 01:00: 0.9350
2025-09-02 02:00: 0.0660
2025-09-02 02:00: 0.9340
2025-09-02 03:00: 0.0660
2025-09-02 03:00: 0.9340
2025-09-02 04:00: 0.0630
2025-09-02 04:00: 0.9370
2025-09-02 05:00: 0.0630
2025-09-02 05:00: 0.9370
2025-09-02 06:00: 0.9370
2025-09-02 06:00: 0.0630
Trade Summary: Total trades: 32, Buy volume: 4036.88, Sell volume: 1566.44, Average price: 0.5281, Price range: 0.0538 - 0.9455
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike, wash_trading

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 581289
Question: Bayrou out as French PM by September 30?
Volume: 281577.135409
Price History:
2025-09-02 18:00: 0.0560
2025-09-02 19:00: 0.9455
2025-09-02 19:00: 0.0545
2025-09-02 20:00: 0.9440
2025-09-02 20:00: 0.0560
2025-09-02 21:00: 0.9430
2025-09-02 21:00: 0.0570
2025-09-02 22:00: 0.9425
2025-09-02 22:00: 0.0575
2025-09-02 23:00: 0.9440
2025-09-02 23:00: 0.0560
2025-09-03 00:00: 0.0550
2025-09-03 00:00: 0.9450
2025-09-03 01:00: 0.0570
2025-09-03 01:00: 0.9430
2025-09-03 02:00: 0.0565
2025-09-03 02:00: 0.9435
2025-09-03 03:00: 0.0570
2025-09-03 03:00: 0.9430
2025-09-03 04:00: 0.0575
2025-09-03 04:00: 0.9425
2025-09-03 05:00: 0.9435
2025-09-03 05:00: 0.0565
2025-09-03 06:00: 0.9300
2025-09-03 06:00: 0.0700
2025-09-03 07:00: 0.9260
2025-09-03 07:00: 0.0740
2025-09-03 08:00: 0.0680
2025-09-03 08:00: 0.9320
2025-09-03 09:00: 0.0680
Trade Summary: Total trades: 28, Buy volume: 8361.12, Sell volume: 535.97, Average price: 0.4377, Price range: 0.0336 - 0.9725
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike, wash_trading

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 581289
Question: Bayrou out as French PM by September 30?
Volume: 281577.135409
Price History:
2025-09-03 21:00: 0.9645
2025-09-03 21:00: 0.0355
2025-09-03 22:00: 0.0370
2025-09-03 22:00: 0.9630
2025-09-03 23:00: 0.9610
2025-09-03 23:00: 0.0390
2025-09-04 00:00: 0.9600
2025-09-04 00:00: 0.0400
2025-09-04 01:00: 0.9615
2025-09-04 01:00: 0.0385
2025-09-04 02:00: 0.9625
2025-09-04 02:00: 0.0375
2025-09-04 03:00: 0.9535
2025-09-04 03:00: 0.0465
2025-09-04 04:00: 0.9545
2025-09-04 04:00: 0.0455
2025-09-04 05:00: 0.9550
2025-09-04 05:00: 0.0450
2025-09-04 06:00: 0.0450
2025-09-04 06:00: 0.9550
2025-09-04 07:00: 0.0450
2025-09-04 07:00: 0.9550
2025-09-04 08:00: 0.9545
2025-09-04 08:00: 0.0455
2025-09-04 09:00: 0.0450
2025-09-04 09:00: 0.9550
2025-09-04 10:00: 0.0450
2025-09-04 10:00: 0.9550
2025-09-04 11:00: 0.0370
2025-09-04 11:00: 0.9630
Trade Summary: Total trades: 23, Buy volume: 1467.47, Sell volume: 1710.55, Average price: 0.5587, Price range: 0.0300 - 0.9700
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 581289
Question: Bayrou out as French PM by September 30?
Volume: 281577.135409
Price History:
2025-09-04 23:00: 0.0330
2025-09-05 00:00: 0.9670
2025-09-05 00:00: 0.0330
2025-09-05 01:00: 0.9655
2025-09-05 01:00: 0.0345
2025-09-05 02:00: 0.0335
2025-09-05 02:00: 0.9665
2025-09-05 03:00: 0.9665
2025-09-05 03:00: 0.0335
2025-09-05 04:00: 0.0340
2025-09-05 04:00: 0.9660
2025-09-05 05:00: 0.9635
2025-09-05 05:00: 0.0365
2025-09-05 06:00: 0.9630
2025-09-05 06:00: 0.0370
2025-09-05 07:00: 0.9620
2025-09-05 07:00: 0.0380
2025-09-05 08:00: 0.9645
2025-09-05 08:00: 0.0355
2025-09-05 09:00: 0.9655
2025-09-05 09:00: 0.0345
2025-09-05 10:00: 0.9635
2025-09-05 10:00: 0.0365
2025-09-05 11:00: 0.9635
2025-09-05 11:00: 0.0365
2025-09-05 12:00: 0.0365
2025-09-05 12:00: 0.9635
2025-09-05 13:00: 0.0365
2025-09-05 13:00: 0.9635
2025-09-05 14:00: 0.9635
Trade Summary: Total trades: 13, Buy volume: 3038.95, Sell volume: 1171.97, Average price: 0.5361, Price range: 0.0335 - 0.9669
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 581289
Question: Bayrou out as French PM by September 30?
Volume: 281577.135409
Price History:
2025-09-06 02:00: 0.9680
2025-09-06 02:00: 0.0320
2025-09-06 03:00: 0.0320
2025-09-06 03:00: 0.9680
2025-09-06 04:00: 0.9690
2025-09-06 04:00: 0.0310
2025-09-06 05:00: 0.0320
2025-09-06 05:00: 0.9680
2025-09-06 06:00: 0.0455
2025-09-06 06:00: 0.9545
2025-09-06 07:00: 0.0425
2025-09-06 07:00: 0.9575
2025-09-06 08:00: 0.0450
2025-09-06 08:00: 0.9550
2025-09-06 09:00: 0.0420
2025-09-06 09:00: 0.9580
2025-09-06 10:00: 0.0405
2025-09-06 10:00: 0.9595
2025-09-06 11:00: 0.0420
2025-09-06 11:00: 0.9580
2025-09-06 12:00: 0.9595
2025-09-06 12:00: 0.0405
2025-09-06 13:00: 0.0380
2025-09-06 13:00: 0.9620
2025-09-06 14:00: 0.0415
2025-09-06 14:00: 0.9585
2025-09-06 15:00: 0.0410
2025-09-06 15:00: 0.9590
2025-09-06 16:00: 0.0445
2025-09-06 16:00: 0.9555
Trade Summary: Total trades: 6, Buy volume: 4253.97, Sell volume: 142.85, Average price: 0.5029, Price range: 0.0400 - 0.9623
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 581289
Question: Bayrou out as French PM by September 30?
Volume: 281577.135409
Price History:
2025-09-07 04:00: 0.9555
2025-09-07 05:00: 0.9555
2025-09-07 05:00: 0.0445
2025-09-07 06:00: 0.9555
2025-09-07 06:00: 0.0445
2025-09-07 07:00: 0.9555
2025-09-07 07:00: 0.0445
2025-09-07 08:00: 0.0405
2025-09-07 08:00: 0.9595
2025-09-07 09:00: 0.0380
2025-09-07 09:00: 0.9620
2025-09-07 10:00: 0.0405
2025-09-07 10:00: 0.9595
2025-09-07 11:00: 0.9635
2025-09-07 11:00: 0.0365
2025-09-07 12:00: 0.0355
2025-09-07 12:00: 0.9645
2025-09-07 13:00: 0.0365
2025-09-07 13:00: 0.9635
2025-09-07 14:00: 0.0385
2025-09-07 14:00: 0.9615
2025-09-07 15:00: 0.9795
2025-09-07 15:00: 0.0205
2025-09-07 16:00: 0.0165
2025-09-07 16:00: 0.9835
2025-09-07 17:00: 0.0170
2025-09-07 17:00: 0.9830
2025-09-07 18:00: 0.0155
2025-09-07 18:00: 0.9845
2025-09-07 19:00: 0.9840
Trade Summary: Total trades: 25, Buy volume: 8214.18, Sell volume: 3649.66, Average price: 0.7513, Price range: 0.0230 - 0.9897
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike, wash_trading

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 581289
Question: Bayrou out as French PM by September 30?
Volume: 281577.135409
Price History:
2025-09-08 07:00: 0.0225
2025-09-08 07:00: 0.9775
2025-09-08 08:00: 0.0160
2025-09-08 08:00: 0.9840
2025-09-08 09:00: 0.0160
2025-09-08 09:00: 0.9840
2025-09-08 10:00: 0.9820
2025-09-08 10:00: 0.0180
2025-09-08 11:00: 0.0310
2025-09-08 11:00: 0.9690
2025-09-08 12:00: 0.0230
2025-09-08 12:00: 0.9770
2025-09-08 13:00: 0.0250
2025-09-08 13:00: 0.9750
2025-09-08 14:00: 0.0055
2025-09-08 14:00: 0.9945
2025-09-08 15:00: 0.0050
2025-09-08 15:00: 0.9950
2025-09-08 16:00: 0.9970
2025-09-08 16:00: 0.0030
2025-09-08 17:00: 0.9975
2025-09-08 17:00: 0.0025
2025-09-08 18:00: 0.0025
2025-09-08 18:00: 0.9975
2025-09-08 19:00: 0.9975
2025-09-08 19:00: 0.0025
2025-09-08 20:00: 0.0025
2025-09-08 20:00: 0.9975
2025-09-08 21:00: 0.9965
2025-09-08 21:00: 0.0035
Trade Summary: Total trades: 135, Buy volume: 134988.13, Sell volume: 12477.61, Average price: 0.7573, Price range: 0.0010 - 0.9990
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike, wash_trading

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 700275
Question: Will Jack Doohan achieve pole position in Sprint Qualifying at the 2025 F1 Qatar Grand Prix?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 8760.741
Price History:
2025-11-24 09:00: 0.5000
2025-11-24 09:00: 0.5000
2025-11-24 10:00: 0.7550
2025-11-24 10:00: 0.2450
2025-11-24 11:00: 0.7550
2025-11-24 11:00: 0.2450
2025-11-24 12:00: 0.7550
2025-11-24 12:00: 0.2450
2025-11-24 13:00: 0.7550
2025-11-24 13:00: 0.2450
2025-11-24 14:00: 0.7550
2025-11-24 14:00: 0.2450
2025-11-24 15:00: 0.8750
2025-11-24 15:00: 0.1250
2025-11-24 16:00: 0.8750
2025-11-24 16:00: 0.1250
Trade Summary: Total trades: 17, Buy volume: 8760.74, Sell volume: 0.00, Average price: 0.9984, Price range: 0.9900 - 0.9990

Output: No


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 700275
Question: Will Jack Doohan achieve pole position in Sprint Qualifying at the 2025 F1 Qatar Grand Prix?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 8760.741
Price History:
2025-11-24 17:00: 0.8750
2025-11-24 17:00: 0.1250
2025-11-24 18:00: 0.9550
2025-11-24 18:00: 0.0450
2025-11-24 19:00: 0.9545
2025-11-24 19:00: 0.0455
2025-11-24 20:00: 0.9545
2025-11-24 20:00: 0.0455
2025-11-24 21:00: 0.9545
2025-11-24 21:00: 0.0455
2025-11-24 22:00: 0.9545
2025-11-24 22:00: 0.0455
2025-11-24 23:00: 0.9545
2025-11-24 23:00: 0.0455
2025-11-25 00:00: 0.9545
2025-11-25 00:00: 0.0455
Trade Summary: Total trades: 17, Buy volume: 8760.74, Sell volume: 0.00, Average price: 0.9984, Price range: 0.9900 - 0.9990

Output: No


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 700275
Question: Will Jack Doohan achieve pole position in Sprint Qualifying at the 2025 F1 Qatar Grand Prix?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 8760.741
Price History:
2025-11-25 01:00: 0.9545
2025-11-25 01:00: 0.0455
2025-11-25 02:00: 0.9545
2025-11-25 02:00: 0.0455
2025-11-25 03:00: 0.9545
2025-11-25 03:00: 0.0455
2025-11-25 04:00: 0.9545
2025-11-25 04:00: 0.0455
2025-11-25 05:00: 0.9545
2025-11-25 05:00: 0.0455
2025-11-25 06:00: 0.9545
2025-11-25 06:00: 0.0455
2025-11-25 07:00: 0.9545
2025-11-25 07:00: 0.0455
2025-11-25 08:00: 0.9545
2025-11-25 08:00: 0.0455
Trade Summary: Total trades: 17, Buy volume: 8760.74, Sell volume: 0.00, Average price: 0.9984, Price range: 0.9900 - 0.9990

Output: No


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 700275
Question: Will Jack Doohan achieve pole position in Sprint Qualifying at the 2025 F1 Qatar Grand Prix?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 8760.741
Price History:
2025-11-25 09:00: 0.9545
2025-11-25 09:00: 0.0455
2025-11-25 10:00: 0.8745
2025-11-25 10:00: 0.1255
2025-11-25 11:00: 0.8745
2025-11-25 11:00: 0.1255
2025-11-25 12:00: 0.8745
2025-11-25 12:00: 0.1255
2025-11-25 13:00: 0.9745
2025-11-25 13:00: 0.0255
2025-11-25 14:00: 0.9745
2025-11-25 14:00: 0.0255
2025-11-25 15:00: 0.9745
2025-11-25 15:00: 0.0255
2025-11-25 16:00: 0.8745
2025-11-25 16:00: 0.1255
Trade Summary: Total trades: 17, Buy volume: 8760.74, Sell volume: 0.00, Average price: 0.9984, Price range: 0.9900 - 0.9990

Output: No


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 700275
Question: Will Jack Doohan achieve pole position in Sprint Qualifying at the 2025 F1 Qatar Grand Prix?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 8760.741
Price History:
2025-11-25 17:00: 0.8745
2025-11-25 17:00: 0.1255
2025-11-25 18:00: 0.8875
2025-11-25 18:00: 0.1125
2025-11-25 19:00: 0.8950
2025-11-25 19:00: 0.1050
2025-11-25 20:00: 0.9005
2025-11-25 20:00: 0.0995
2025-11-25 21:00: 0.9005
2025-11-25 21:00: 0.0995
2025-11-25 22:00: 0.9005
2025-11-25 22:00: 0.0995
2025-11-25 23:00: 0.9005
2025-11-25 23:00: 0.0995
2025-11-26 00:00: 0.9005
2025-11-26 00:00: 0.0995
Trade Summary: Total trades: 17, Buy volume: 8760.74, Sell volume: 0.00, Average price: 0.9984, Price range: 0.9900 - 0.9990

Output: No


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 700275
Question: Will Jack Doohan achieve pole position in Sprint Qualifying at the 2025 F1 Qatar Grand Prix?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 8760.741
Price History:
2025-11-26 01:00: 0.9005
2025-11-26 01:00: 0.0995
2025-11-26 02:00: 0.9045
2025-11-26 02:00: 0.0955
2025-11-26 03:00: 0.9100
2025-11-26 03:00: 0.0900
2025-11-26 04:00: 0.9140
2025-11-26 04:00: 0.0860
2025-11-26 05:00: 0.9225
2025-11-26 05:00: 0.0775
2025-11-26 06:00: 0.9295
2025-11-26 06:00: 0.0705
2025-11-26 07:00: 0.9295
2025-11-26 07:00: 0.0705
2025-11-26 08:00: 0.9895
2025-11-26 08:00: 0.0105
Trade Summary: Total trades: 1, Buy volume: 5.00, Sell volume: 0.00, Average price: 0.9990, Price range: 0.9990 - 0.9990

Output: No


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 700275
Question: Will Jack Doohan achieve pole position in Sprint Qualifying at the 2025 F1 Qatar Grand Prix?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 8760.741
Price History:
2025-11-26 09:00: 0.9895
2025-11-26 09:00: 0.0105
2025-11-26 10:00: 0.9895
2025-11-26 10:00: 0.0105
2025-11-26 11:00: 0.9895
2025-11-26 11:00: 0.0105
2025-11-26 12:00: 0.9895
2025-11-26 12:00: 0.0105
2025-11-26 13:00: 0.9895
2025-11-26 13:00: 0.0105
2025-11-26 14:00: 0.9895
2025-11-26 14:00: 0.0105
2025-11-26 15:00: 0.9895
2025-11-26 15:00: 0.0105
2025-11-26 16:00: 0.9895
2025-11-26 16:00: 0.0105
Trade Summary: Total trades: 17, Buy volume: 8760.74, Sell volume: 0.00, Average price: 0.9984, Price range: 0.9900 - 0.9990

Output: No


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 700275
Question: Will Jack Doohan achieve pole position in Sprint Qualifying at the 2025 F1 Qatar Grand Prix?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 8760.741
Price History:
2025-11-26 17:00: 0.9895
2025-11-26 17:00: 0.0105
2025-11-26 18:00: 0.9895
2025-11-26 18:00: 0.0105
2025-11-26 19:00: 0.9895
2025-11-26 19:00: 0.0105
2025-11-26 20:00: 0.9895
2025-11-26 20:00: 0.0105
2025-11-26 21:00: 0.9895
2025-11-26 21:00: 0.0105
2025-11-26 22:00: 0.9005
2025-11-26 22:00: 0.0995
2025-11-26 23:00: 0.9080
2025-11-26 23:00: 0.0920
2025-11-27 00:00: 0.9150
2025-11-27 00:00: 0.0850
Trade Summary: Total trades: 1, Buy volume: 5.00, Sell volume: 0.00, Average price: 0.9990, Price range: 0.9990 - 0.9990

Output: No


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 700275
Question: Will Jack Doohan achieve pole position in Sprint Qualifying at the 2025 F1 Qatar Grand Prix?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 8760.741
Price History:
2025-11-27 01:00: 0.9180
2025-11-27 01:00: 0.0820
2025-11-27 02:00: 0.9245
2025-11-27 02:00: 0.0755
2025-11-27 03:00: 0.9295
2025-11-27 03:00: 0.0705
2025-11-27 04:00: 0.9380
2025-11-27 04:00: 0.0620
2025-11-27 05:00: 0.9450
2025-11-27 05:00: 0.0550
2025-11-27 06:00: 0.8745
2025-11-27 06:00: 0.1255
2025-11-27 07:00: 0.8750
2025-11-27 07:00: 0.1250
2025-11-27 08:00: 0.8745
2025-11-27 08:00: 0.1255
Trade Summary: Total trades: 1, Buy volume: 12.00, Sell volume: 0.00, Average price: 0.9990, Price range: 0.9990 - 0.9990

Output: No


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 700275
Question: Will Jack Doohan achieve pole position in Sprint Qualifying at the 2025 F1 Qatar Grand Prix?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 8760.741
Price History:
2025-11-27 09:00: 0.8745
2025-11-27 09:00: 0.1255
2025-11-27 10:00: 0.8745
2025-11-27 10:00: 0.1255
2025-11-27 11:00: 0.8745
2025-11-27 11:00: 0.1255
2025-11-27 12:00: 0.8745
2025-11-27 12:00: 0.1255
2025-11-27 13:00: 0.8745
2025-11-27 13:00: 0.1255
2025-11-27 14:00: 0.8745
2025-11-27 14:00: 0.1255
2025-11-27 15:00: 0.8745
2025-11-27 15:00: 0.1255
2025-11-27 16:00: 0.8745
2025-11-27 16:00: 0.1255
Trade Summary: Total trades: 17, Buy volume: 8760.74, Sell volume: 0.00, Average price: 0.9984, Price range: 0.9900 - 0.9990

Output: No


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 700275
Question: Will Jack Doohan achieve pole position in Sprint Qualifying at the 2025 F1 Qatar Grand Prix?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 8760.741
Price History:
2025-11-27 17:00: 0.8800
2025-11-27 17:00: 0.1200
2025-11-27 18:00: 0.8845
2025-11-27 18:00: 0.1155
2025-11-27 19:00: 0.8850
2025-11-27 19:00: 0.1150
2025-11-27 20:00: 0.8850
2025-11-27 20:00: 0.1150
2025-11-27 21:00: 0.9500
2025-11-27 21:00: 0.0500
2025-11-27 22:00: 0.9510
2025-11-27 22:00: 0.0490
2025-11-27 23:00: 0.9510
2025-11-27 23:00: 0.0490
2025-11-28 00:00: 0.9460
2025-11-28 00:00: 0.0540
Trade Summary: Total trades: 1, Buy volume: 1797.98, Sell volume: 0.00, Average price: 0.9990, Price range: 0.9990 - 0.9990

Output: No


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 700275
Question: Will Jack Doohan achieve pole position in Sprint Qualifying at the 2025 F1 Qatar Grand Prix?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 8760.741
Price History:
2025-11-28 01:00: 0.9460
2025-11-28 01:00: 0.0540
2025-11-28 02:00: 0.9640
2025-11-28 02:00: 0.0360
2025-11-28 03:00: 0.9645
2025-11-28 03:00: 0.0355
2025-11-28 04:00: 0.9960
2025-11-28 04:00: 0.0040
2025-11-28 05:00: 0.9960
2025-11-28 05:00: 0.0040
2025-11-28 06:00: 0.9960
2025-11-28 06:00: 0.0040
2025-11-28 07:00: 0.9960
2025-11-28 07:00: 0.0040
2025-11-28 08:00: 0.9985
2025-11-28 08:00: 0.0015
Trade Summary: Total trades: 11, Buy volume: 580.06, Sell volume: 0.00, Average price: 0.9980, Price range: 0.9900 - 0.9990

Output: No


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 700275
Question: Will Jack Doohan achieve pole position in Sprint Qualifying at the 2025 F1 Qatar Grand Prix?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 8760.741
Price History:
2025-11-28 09:00: 0.9990
2025-11-28 09:00: 0.0010
2025-11-28 10:00: 0.9990
2025-11-28 10:00: 0.0010
2025-11-28 11:00: 0.9995
2025-11-28 11:00: 0.0005
2025-11-28 12:00: 0.9995
2025-11-28 12:00: 0.0005
2025-11-28 13:00: 0.9990
2025-11-28 13:00: 0.0010
2025-11-28 14:00: 0.9995
2025-11-28 14:00: 0.0005
2025-11-28 15:00: 0.9995
2025-11-28 15:00: 0.0005
2025-11-28 16:00: 0.9995
2025-11-28 16:00: 0.0005
Trade Summary: Total trades: 17, Buy volume: 8760.74, Sell volume: 0.00, Average price: 0.9984, Price range: 0.9900 - 0.9990

Output: No


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 700275
Question: Will Jack Doohan achieve pole position in Sprint Qualifying at the 2025 F1 Qatar Grand Prix?
Volume: 8760.741
Price History:
2025-11-24 09:00: 0.5000
2025-11-24 09:00: 0.5000
2025-11-24 10:00: 0.7550
2025-11-24 10:00: 0.2450
2025-11-24 11:00: 0.7550
2025-11-24 11:00: 0.2450
2025-11-24 12:00: 0.7550
2025-11-24 12:00: 0.2450
2025-11-24 13:00: 0.7550
2025-11-24 13:00: 0.2450
2025-11-24 14:00: 0.7550
2025-11-24 14:00: 0.2450
2025-11-24 15:00: 0.8750
2025-11-24 15:00: 0.1250
2025-11-24 16:00: 0.8750
2025-11-24 16:00: 0.1250
Trade Summary: Total trades: 17, Buy volume: 8760.74, Sell volume: 0.00, Average price: 0.9984, Price range: 0.9900 - 0.9990
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 700275
Question: Will Jack Doohan achieve pole position in Sprint Qualifying at the 2025 F1 Qatar Grand Prix?
Volume: 8760.741
Price History:
2025-11-24 17:00: 0.8750
2025-11-24 17:00: 0.1250
2025-11-24 18:00: 0.9550
2025-11-24 18:00: 0.0450
2025-11-24 19:00: 0.9545
2025-11-24 19:00: 0.0455
2025-11-24 20:00: 0.9545
2025-11-24 20:00: 0.0455
2025-11-24 21:00: 0.9545
2025-11-24 21:00: 0.0455
2025-11-24 22:00: 0.9545
2025-11-24 22:00: 0.0455
2025-11-24 23:00: 0.9545
2025-11-24 23:00: 0.0455
2025-11-25 00:00: 0.9545
2025-11-25 00:00: 0.0455
Trade Summary: Total trades: 17, Buy volume: 8760.74, Sell volume: 0.00, Average price: 0.9984, Price range: 0.9900 - 0.9990
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes