Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 518096
Question: Will 51 Senators vote to confirm RFK as Secretary of HHS?
Volume: 46972.612619
Price History:
2025-01-31 11:00: 0.1700
2025-01-31 13:00: 0.1700
2025-01-31 15:00: 0.1700
2025-01-31 17:00: 0.1700
2025-01-31 19:00: 0.1700
2025-01-31 21:00: 0.1700
2025-01-31 23:00: 0.1700
2025-02-01 01:00: 0.1700
2025-02-01 03:00: 0.1650
2025-02-01 05:00: 0.1700
2025-02-01 07:00: 0.1700
2025-02-01 09:00: 0.1750
2025-02-01 11:00: 0.1800
2025-02-01 13:00: 0.1850
2025-02-01 15:00: 0.1850
2025-02-01 17:00: 0.1850
2025-02-01 19:00: 0.1850
2025-02-01 21:00: 0.1950
2025-02-01 23:00: 0.2000
2025-02-02 01:00: 0.1850
2025-02-02 03:00: 0.1850
2025-02-02 05:00: 0.1800
2025-02-02 07:00: 0.1850
2025-02-02 09:00: 0.1850
2025-02-02 11:00: 0.2000
2025-02-02 13:00: 0.2000
2025-02-02 15:00: 0.1900
2025-02-02 17:00: 0.2050
2025-02-02 19:00: 0.2000
2025-02-02 21:00: 0.2100
Trade Summary: Total trades: 47, Buy volume: 2456.43, Sell volume: 136.80, Average price: 0.4594, Price range: 0.1700 - 0.8300
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 518096
Question: Will 51 Senators vote to confirm RFK as Secretary of HHS?
Volume: 46972.612619
Price History:
2025-02-03 01:00: 0.7950
2025-02-03 03:00: 0.7950
2025-02-03 05:00: 0.7950
2025-02-03 07:00: 0.8050
2025-02-03 09:00: 0.7950
2025-02-03 11:00: 0.7850
2025-02-03 13:00: 0.7900
2025-02-03 15:00: 0.7850
2025-02-03 17:00: 0.7850
2025-02-03 19:00: 0.7850
2025-02-03 21:00: 0.7450
2025-02-03 23:00: 0.7200
2025-02-04 01:00: 0.7600
2025-02-04 03:00: 0.7450
2025-02-04 05:00: 0.7450
2025-02-04 07:00: 0.7400
2025-02-04 09:00: 0.7500
2025-02-04 11:00: 0.7500
2025-02-04 13:00: 0.7500
2025-02-04 15:00: 0.7500
2025-02-04 17:00: 0.7550
2025-02-04 19:00: 0.7600
2025-02-04 21:00: 0.7650
2025-02-04 23:00: 0.7750
2025-02-05 01:00: 0.7750
2025-02-05 03:00: 0.7800
2025-02-05 05:00: 0.7800
2025-02-05 07:00: 0.7800
2025-02-05 09:00: 0.7800
2025-02-05 11:00: 0.7800
Trade Summary: Total trades: 36, Buy volume: 1594.93, Sell volume: 991.71, Average price: 0.4090, Price range: 0.2100 - 0.8000
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 518096
Question: Will 51 Senators vote to confirm RFK as Secretary of HHS?
Volume: 46972.612619
Price History:
2025-02-05 16:00: 0.2300
2025-02-05 18:00: 0.2400
2025-02-05 20:00: 0.2300
2025-02-05 22:00: 0.2150
2025-02-06 00:00: 0.2300
2025-02-06 02:00: 0.2250
2025-02-06 04:00: 0.2100
2025-02-06 06:00: 0.2200
2025-02-06 08:00: 0.2300
2025-02-06 10:00: 0.2100
2025-02-06 12:00: 0.2150
2025-02-06 14:00: 0.2050
2025-02-06 16:00: 0.2100
2025-02-06 18:00: 0.2150
2025-02-06 20:00: 0.2100
2025-02-06 22:00: 0.2300
2025-02-07 00:00: 0.1300
2025-02-07 02:00: 0.2200
2025-02-07 04:00: 0.1200
2025-02-07 06:00: 0.2000
2025-02-07 08:00: 0.1500
2025-02-07 10:00: 0.1450
2025-02-07 12:00: 0.1400
2025-02-07 14:00: 0.1350
2025-02-07 16:00: 0.1300
2025-02-07 18:00: 0.1300
2025-02-07 20:00: 0.1300
2025-02-07 22:00: 0.1300
2025-02-08 00:00: 0.1400
2025-02-08 02:00: 0.1400
Trade Summary: Total trades: 56, Buy volume: 1503.24, Sell volume: 1557.89, Average price: 0.4449, Price range: 0.1200 - 0.8800
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 518096
Question: Will 51 Senators vote to confirm RFK as Secretary of HHS?
Volume: 46972.612619
Price History:
2025-02-08 06:00: 0.8500
2025-02-08 08:00: 0.8500
2025-02-08 10:00: 0.8500
2025-02-08 12:00: 0.8500
2025-02-08 14:00: 0.8550
2025-02-08 16:00: 0.8650
2025-02-08 18:00: 0.8600
2025-02-08 20:00: 0.8600
2025-02-08 22:00: 0.8600
2025-02-09 00:00: 0.8400
2025-02-09 02:00: 0.8400
2025-02-09 04:00: 0.8400
2025-02-09 06:00: 0.8400
2025-02-09 08:00: 0.8400
2025-02-09 10:00: 0.8400
2025-02-09 12:00: 0.8400
2025-02-09 14:00: 0.8400
2025-02-09 16:00: 0.8400
2025-02-09 18:00: 0.8400
2025-02-09 20:00: 0.8450
2025-02-09 22:00: 0.8450
2025-02-10 00:00: 0.8350
2025-02-10 02:00: 0.8450
2025-02-10 04:00: 0.8350
2025-02-10 06:00: 0.8350
2025-02-10 08:00: 0.8350
2025-02-10 10:00: 0.8300
2025-02-10 12:00: 0.8300
2025-02-10 14:00: 0.8300
2025-02-10 16:00: 0.8350
Trade Summary: Total trades: 37, Buy volume: 4919.15, Sell volume: 3407.52, Average price: 0.4216, Price range: 0.1300 - 0.8703
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 518096
Question: Will 51 Senators vote to confirm RFK as Secretary of HHS?
Volume: 46972.612619
Price History:
2025-02-10 21:00: 0.1450
2025-02-10 23:00: 0.1000
2025-02-11 01:00: 0.0950
2025-02-11 03:00: 0.1000
2025-02-11 05:00: 0.1000
2025-02-11 07:00: 0.1000
2025-02-11 09:00: 0.1000
2025-02-11 11:00: 0.0950
2025-02-11 13:00: 0.0950
2025-02-11 15:00: 0.0900
2025-02-11 17:00: 0.0850
2025-02-11 19:00: 0.0950
2025-02-11 21:00: 0.1300
2025-02-11 23:00: 0.1300
2025-02-12 01:00: 0.1250
2025-02-12 03:00: 0.1300
2025-02-12 05:00: 0.1250
2025-02-12 07:00: 0.1300
2025-02-12 09:00: 0.1300
2025-02-12 11:00: 0.1300
2025-02-12 13:00: 0.0100
2025-02-12 15:00: 0.1005
2025-02-12 17:00: 0.0705
2025-02-12 19:00: 0.1010
2025-02-12 21:00: 0.0295
2025-02-12 23:00: 0.0375
2025-02-13 01:00: 0.0265
2025-02-13 03:00: 0.0555
2025-02-13 05:00: 0.0670
2025-02-13 07:00: 0.0700
Trade Summary: Total trades: 259, Buy volume: 9448.60, Sell volume: 4128.40, Average price: 0.3933, Price range: 0.0010 - 0.9990
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike, wash_trading

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 515874
Question: Will the AfD win less than 10% of the vote in the German election?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 12752500.374611
Price History:
2024-12-18 11:00: 0.0800
2024-12-18 14:00: 0.0095
2024-12-18 17:00: 0.0155
2024-12-18 20:00: 0.0170
2024-12-18 23:00: 0.0165
2024-12-19 02:00: 0.0165
2024-12-19 05:00: 0.0165
2024-12-19 08:00: 0.0165
2024-12-19 11:00: 0.0170
2024-12-19 14:00: 0.0160
2024-12-19 17:00: 0.0110
2024-12-19 20:00: 0.0120
2024-12-19 23:00: 0.0115
2024-12-20 02:00: 0.0115
2024-12-20 05:00: 0.0100
2024-12-20 08:00: 0.0100
2024-12-20 11:00: 0.0090
2024-12-20 14:00: 0.0095
2024-12-20 17:00: 0.0070
2024-12-20 20:00: 0.0060
2024-12-20 23:00: 0.0065
2024-12-21 02:00: 0.0060
2024-12-21 05:00: 0.0060
2024-12-21 08:00: 0.0060
2024-12-21 11:00: 0.0060
2024-12-21 14:00: 0.0060
2024-12-21 17:00: 0.0060
2024-12-21 20:00: 0.0050
2024-12-21 23:00: 0.0050
2024-12-22 02:00: 0.0050
2024-12-22 05:00: 0.0035
2024-12-22 08:00: 0.0045
2024-12-22 11:00: 0.0040
2024-12-22 14:00: 0.0040
2024-12-22 17:00: 0.0040
2024-12-22 20:00: 0.0040
2024-12-22 23:00: 0.0035
2024-12-23 02:00: 0.0035
2024-12-23 05:00: 0.0035
2024-12-23 08:00: 0.0035
2024-12-23 11:00: 0.0035
2024-12-23 14:00: 0.0035
2024-12-23 17:00: 0.0040
2024-12-23 20:00: 0.0040
2024-12-23 23:00: 0.0040
2024-12-24 02:00: 0.0040
2024-12-24 05:00: 0.0040
2024-12-24 08:00: 0.0050
2024-12-24 11:00: 0.0055
2024-12-24 14:00: 0.0055
Trade Summary: No trades available

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 515874
Question: Will the AfD win less than 10% of the vote in the German election?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 12752500.374611
Price History:
2024-12-25 01:00: 0.9945
2024-12-25 04:00: 0.9945
2024-12-25 07:00: 0.9945
2024-12-25 10:00: 0.9950
2024-12-25 13:00: 0.9950
2024-12-25 16:00: 0.9950
2024-12-25 19:00: 0.9950
2024-12-25 22:00: 0.9950
2024-12-26 01:00: 0.9950
2024-12-26 04:00: 0.9940
2024-12-26 07:00: 0.9950
2024-12-26 10:00: 0.9945
2024-12-26 13:00: 0.9945
2024-12-26 16:00: 0.9945
2024-12-26 19:00: 0.9945
2024-12-26 22:00: 0.9945
2024-12-27 01:00: 0.9945
2024-12-27 04:00: 0.9945
2024-12-27 07:00: 0.9935
2024-12-27 10:00: 0.9945
2024-12-27 13:00: 0.9945
2024-12-27 16:00: 0.9945
2024-12-27 19:00: 0.9945
2024-12-27 22:00: 0.9945
2024-12-28 01:00: 0.9945
2024-12-28 04:00: 0.9945
2024-12-28 07:00: 0.9955
2024-12-28 10:00: 0.9950
2024-12-28 13:00: 0.9950
2024-12-28 16:00: 0.9950
2024-12-28 19:00: 0.9945
2024-12-28 22:00: 0.9945
2024-12-29 01:00: 0.9950
2024-12-29 04:00: 0.9945
2024-12-29 07:00: 0.9945
2024-12-29 10:00: 0.9940
2024-12-29 13:00: 0.9940
2024-12-29 16:00: 0.9940
2024-12-29 19:00: 0.9940
2024-12-29 22:00: 0.9940
2024-12-30 01:00: 0.9940
2024-12-30 04:00: 0.9940
2024-12-30 07:00: 0.9945
2024-12-30 10:00: 0.9955
2024-12-30 13:00: 0.9950
2024-12-30 16:00: 0.9945
2024-12-30 19:00: 0.9950
2024-12-30 22:00: 0.9950
2024-12-31 01:00: 0.9950
2024-12-31 04:00: 0.9950
Trade Summary: No trades available

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 515874
Question: Will the AfD win less than 10% of the vote in the German election?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 12752500.374611
Price History:
2024-12-31 16:00: 0.0045
2024-12-31 19:00: 0.0045
2024-12-31 22:00: 0.0045
2025-01-01 01:00: 0.0045
2025-01-01 04:00: 0.0045
2025-01-01 07:00: 0.0045
2025-01-01 10:00: 0.0045
2025-01-01 13:00: 0.0045
2025-01-01 16:00: 0.0045
2025-01-01 19:00: 0.0045
2025-01-01 22:00: 0.0045
2025-01-02 01:00: 0.0045
2025-01-02 04:00: 0.0045
2025-01-02 07:00: 0.0045
2025-01-02 10:00: 0.0045
2025-01-02 13:00: 0.0045
2025-01-02 16:00: 0.0045
2025-01-02 19:00: 0.0045
2025-01-02 22:00: 0.0045
2025-01-03 01:00: 0.0045
2025-01-03 04:00: 0.0045
2025-01-03 07:00: 0.0045
2025-01-03 10:00: 0.0045
2025-01-03 13:00: 0.0035
2025-01-03 16:00: 0.0035
2025-01-03 19:00: 0.0035
2025-01-03 22:00: 0.0035
2025-01-04 01:00: 0.0035
2025-01-04 04:00: 0.0035
2025-01-04 07:00: 0.0035
2025-01-04 10:00: 0.0035
2025-01-04 13:00: 0.0035
2025-01-04 16:00: 0.0035
2025-01-04 19:00: 0.0035
2025-01-04 22:00: 0.0035
2025-01-05 01:00: 0.0035
2025-01-05 04:00: 0.0035
2025-01-05 07:00: 0.0035
2025-01-05 10:00: 0.0035
2025-01-05 13:00: 0.0035
2025-01-05 16:00: 0.0035
2025-01-05 19:00: 0.0035
2025-01-05 22:00: 0.0035
2025-01-06 01:00: 0.0035
2025-01-06 04:00: 0.0035
2025-01-06 07:00: 0.0035
2025-01-06 10:00: 0.0025
2025-01-06 13:00: 0.0025
2025-01-06 16:00: 0.0025
2025-01-06 19:00: 0.0025
Trade Summary: No trades available

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 515874
Question: Will the AfD win less than 10% of the vote in the German election?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 12752500.374611
Price History:
2025-01-07 06:00: 0.9965
2025-01-07 09:00: 0.9975
2025-01-07 12:00: 0.9975
2025-01-07 15:00: 0.9975
2025-01-07 18:00: 0.9975
2025-01-07 21:00: 0.9975
2025-01-08 00:00: 0.9975
2025-01-08 03:00: 0.9975
2025-01-08 06:00: 0.9975
2025-01-08 09:00: 0.9975
2025-01-08 12:00: 0.9975
2025-01-08 15:00: 0.9975
2025-01-08 18:00: 0.9975
2025-01-08 21:00: 0.9975
2025-01-09 00:00: 0.9975
2025-01-09 03:00: 0.9975
2025-01-09 06:00: 0.9975
2025-01-09 09:00: 0.9975
2025-01-09 12:00: 0.9975
2025-01-09 15:00: 0.9975
2025-01-09 18:00: 0.9975
2025-01-09 21:00: 0.9975
2025-01-10 00:00: 0.9975
2025-01-10 03:00: 0.9975
2025-01-10 06:00: 0.9975
2025-01-10 09:00: 0.9975
2025-01-10 12:00: 0.9975
2025-01-10 15:00: 0.9975
2025-01-10 18:00: 0.9975
2025-01-10 21:00: 0.9975
2025-01-11 00:00: 0.9975
2025-01-11 03:00: 0.9975
2025-01-11 06:00: 0.9975
2025-01-11 09:00: 0.9975
2025-01-11 12:00: 0.9975
2025-01-11 15:00: 0.9975
2025-01-11 18:00: 0.9975
2025-01-11 21:00: 0.9975
2025-01-12 00:00: 0.9975
2025-01-12 03:00: 0.9975
2025-01-12 06:00: 0.9975
2025-01-12 09:00: 0.9975
2025-01-12 12:00: 0.9975
2025-01-12 15:00: 0.9975
2025-01-12 18:00: 0.9975
2025-01-12 21:00: 0.9975
2025-01-13 00:00: 0.9975
2025-01-13 03:00: 0.9975
2025-01-13 06:00: 0.9975
2025-01-13 09:00: 0.9975
Trade Summary: No trades available

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 515874
Question: Will the AfD win less than 10% of the vote in the German election?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 12752500.374611
Price History:
2025-01-13 21:00: 0.0025
2025-01-14 00:00: 0.0025
2025-01-14 03:00: 0.0025
2025-01-14 06:00: 0.0025
2025-01-14 09:00: 0.0025
2025-01-14 12:00: 0.0025
2025-01-14 15:00: 0.0025
2025-01-14 18:00: 0.0025
2025-01-14 21:00: 0.0025
2025-01-15 00:00: 0.0025
2025-01-15 03:00: 0.0025
2025-01-15 06:00: 0.0025
2025-01-15 09:00: 0.0025
2025-01-15 12:00: 0.0025
2025-01-15 15:00: 0.0025
2025-01-15 18:00: 0.0035
2025-01-15 21:00: 0.0035
2025-01-16 00:00: 0.0045
2025-01-16 03:00: 0.0055
2025-01-16 06:00: 0.0045
2025-01-16 09:00: 0.0075
2025-01-16 12:00: 0.0065
2025-01-16 15:00: 0.0070
2025-01-16 18:00: 0.0065
2025-01-16 21:00: 0.0065
2025-01-17 00:00: 0.0065
2025-01-17 03:00: 0.0070
2025-01-17 06:00: 0.0070
2025-01-17 09:00: 0.0040
2025-01-17 12:00: 0.0045
2025-01-17 15:00: 0.0045
2025-01-17 18:00: 0.0045
2025-01-17 21:00: 0.0045
2025-01-18 00:00: 0.0045
2025-01-18 03:00: 0.0045
2025-01-18 06:00: 0.0045
2025-01-18 09:00: 0.0045
2025-01-18 12:00: 0.0045
2025-01-18 15:00: 0.0045
2025-01-18 18:00: 0.0045
2025-01-18 21:00: 0.0045
2025-01-19 00:00: 0.0045
2025-01-19 03:00: 0.0045
2025-01-19 06:00: 0.0045
2025-01-19 09:00: 0.0045
2025-01-19 12:00: 0.0045
2025-01-19 15:00: 0.0045
2025-01-19 18:00: 0.0045
2025-01-19 21:00: 0.0045
2025-01-20 00:00: 0.0045
Trade Summary: No trades available

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 515874
Question: Will the AfD win less than 10% of the vote in the German election?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 12752500.374611
Price History:
2025-01-20 11:00: 0.9945
2025-01-20 14:00: 0.9945
2025-01-20 17:00: 0.9945
2025-01-20 20:00: 0.9945
2025-01-20 23:00: 0.9945
2025-01-21 02:00: 0.9945
2025-01-21 05:00: 0.9945
2025-01-21 08:00: 0.9945
2025-01-21 11:00: 0.9945
2025-01-21 14:00: 0.9945
2025-01-21 17:00: 0.9945
2025-01-21 20:00: 0.9945
2025-01-21 23:00: 0.9945
2025-01-22 02:00: 0.9945
2025-01-22 05:00: 0.9945
2025-01-22 08:00: 0.9945
2025-01-22 11:00: 0.9945
2025-01-22 14:00: 0.9945
2025-01-22 17:00: 0.9945
2025-01-22 20:00: 0.9945
2025-01-22 23:00: 0.9945
2025-01-23 02:00: 0.9945
2025-01-23 05:00: 0.9945
2025-01-23 08:00: 0.9945
2025-01-23 11:00: 0.9945
2025-01-23 14:00: 0.9945
2025-01-23 17:00: 0.9945
2025-01-23 20:00: 0.9945
2025-01-23 23:00: 0.9945
2025-01-24 02:00: 0.9945
2025-01-24 05:00: 0.9945
2025-01-24 08:00: 0.9945
2025-01-24 11:00: 0.9945
2025-01-24 14:00: 0.9945
2025-01-24 17:00: 0.9945
2025-01-24 20:00: 0.9945
2025-01-24 23:00: 0.9945
2025-01-25 02:00: 0.9945
2025-01-25 05:00: 0.9945
2025-01-25 08:00: 0.9945
2025-01-25 11:00: 0.9945
2025-01-25 14:00: 0.9945
2025-01-25 17:00: 0.9945
2025-01-25 20:00: 0.9945
2025-01-25 23:00: 0.9945
2025-01-26 02:00: 0.9945
2025-01-26 05:00: 0.9945
2025-01-26 08:00: 0.9945
2025-01-26 11:00: 0.9945
2025-01-26 14:00: 0.9945
Trade Summary: No trades available

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 515874
Question: Will the AfD win less than 10% of the vote in the German election?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 12752500.374611
Price History:
2025-01-27 02:00: 0.0055
2025-01-27 05:00: 0.0055
2025-01-27 08:00: 0.0055
2025-01-27 11:00: 0.0045
2025-01-27 14:00: 0.0045
2025-01-27 17:00: 0.0035
2025-01-27 20:00: 0.0045
2025-01-27 23:00: 0.0045
2025-01-28 02:00: 0.0045
2025-01-28 05:00: 0.0045
2025-01-28 08:00: 0.0045
2025-01-28 11:00: 0.0045
2025-01-28 14:00: 0.0045
2025-01-28 17:00: 0.0045
2025-01-28 20:00: 0.0045
2025-01-28 23:00: 0.0045
2025-01-29 02:00: 0.0045
2025-01-29 05:00: 0.0045
2025-01-29 08:00: 0.0045
2025-01-29 11:00: 0.0045
2025-01-29 14:00: 0.0045
2025-01-29 17:00: 0.0045
2025-01-29 20:00: 0.0045
2025-01-29 23:00: 0.0045
2025-01-30 02:00: 0.0045
2025-01-30 05:00: 0.0045
2025-01-30 08:00: 0.0045
2025-01-30 11:00: 0.0045
2025-01-30 14:00: 0.0045
2025-01-30 17:00: 0.0045
2025-01-30 20:00: 0.0045
2025-01-30 23:00: 0.0045
2025-01-31 02:00: 0.0045
2025-01-31 05:00: 0.0045
2025-01-31 08:00: 0.0035
2025-01-31 11:00: 0.0045
2025-01-31 14:00: 0.0045
2025-01-31 17:00: 0.0045
2025-01-31 20:00: 0.0045
2025-01-31 23:00: 0.0045
2025-02-01 02:00: 0.0045
2025-02-01 05:00: 0.0045
2025-02-01 08:00: 0.0045
2025-02-01 11:00: 0.0045
2025-02-01 14:00: 0.0045
2025-02-01 17:00: 0.0045
2025-02-01 20:00: 0.0035
2025-02-01 23:00: 0.0035
2025-02-02 02:00: 0.0035
2025-02-02 05:00: 0.0035
Trade Summary: No trades available

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 515874
Question: Will the AfD win less than 10% of the vote in the German election?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 12752500.374611
Price History:
2025-02-02 16:00: 0.9965
2025-02-02 19:00: 0.9965
2025-02-02 22:00: 0.9965
2025-02-03 01:00: 0.9965
2025-02-03 04:00: 0.9965
2025-02-03 07:00: 0.9965
2025-02-03 10:00: 0.9965
2025-02-03 13:00: 0.9965
2025-02-03 16:00: 0.9965
2025-02-03 19:00: 0.9965
2025-02-03 22:00: 0.9965
2025-02-04 01:00: 0.9965
2025-02-04 04:00: 0.9965
2025-02-04 07:00: 0.9965
2025-02-04 10:00: 0.9965
2025-02-04 13:00: 0.9965
2025-02-04 16:00: 0.9965
2025-02-04 19:00: 0.9965
2025-02-04 22:00: 0.9965
2025-02-05 01:00: 0.9965
2025-02-05 04:00: 0.9975
2025-02-05 07:00: 0.9975
2025-02-05 10:00: 0.9975
2025-02-05 13:00: 0.9975
2025-02-05 16:00: 0.9975
2025-02-05 19:00: 0.9975
2025-02-05 22:00: 0.9975
2025-02-06 01:00: 0.9975
2025-02-06 04:00: 0.9975
2025-02-06 07:00: 0.9975
2025-02-06 10:00: 0.9975
2025-02-06 13:00: 0.9975
2025-02-06 16:00: 0.9975
2025-02-06 19:00: 0.9975
2025-02-06 22:00: 0.9975
2025-02-07 01:00: 0.9975
2025-02-07 04:00: 0.9975
2025-02-07 07:00: 0.9975
2025-02-07 10:00: 0.9975
2025-02-07 13:00: 0.9975
2025-02-07 16:00: 0.9975
2025-02-07 19:00: 0.9975
2025-02-07 22:00: 0.9975
2025-02-08 01:00: 0.9975
2025-02-08 04:00: 0.9975
2025-02-08 07:00: 0.9975
2025-02-08 10:00: 0.9975
2025-02-08 13:00: 0.9975
2025-02-08 16:00: 0.9975
2025-02-08 19:00: 0.9975
Trade Summary: No trades available

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 515874
Question: Will the AfD win less than 10% of the vote in the German election?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 12752500.374611
Price History:
2025-02-09 07:00: 0.0025
2025-02-09 10:00: 0.0015
2025-02-09 13:00: 0.0015
2025-02-09 16:00: 0.0020
2025-02-09 19:00: 0.0015
2025-02-09 22:00: 0.0015
2025-02-10 01:00: 0.0015
2025-02-10 04:00: 0.0015
2025-02-10 07:00: 0.0015
2025-02-10 10:00: 0.0015
2025-02-10 13:00: 0.0015
2025-02-10 16:00: 0.0015
2025-02-10 19:00: 0.0015
2025-02-10 22:00: 0.0015
2025-02-11 01:00: 0.0015
2025-02-11 04:00: 0.0015
2025-02-11 07:00: 0.0015
2025-02-11 10:00: 0.0015
2025-02-11 13:00: 0.0015
2025-02-11 16:00: 0.0015
2025-02-11 19:00: 0.0015
2025-02-11 22:00: 0.0015
2025-02-12 01:00: 0.0015
2025-02-12 04:00: 0.0015
2025-02-12 07:00: 0.0015
2025-02-12 10:00: 0.0015
2025-02-12 13:00: 0.0015
2025-02-12 16:00: 0.0015
2025-02-12 19:00: 0.0015
2025-02-12 22:00: 0.0015
2025-02-13 01:00: 0.0015
2025-02-13 04:00: 0.0015
2025-02-13 07:00: 0.0015
2025-02-13 10:00: 0.0015
2025-02-13 13:00: 0.0015
2025-02-13 16:00: 0.0015
2025-02-13 19:00: 0.0015
2025-02-13 22:00: 0.0015
2025-02-14 01:00: 0.0015
2025-02-14 04:00: 0.0015
2025-02-14 07:00: 0.0015
2025-02-14 10:00: 0.0015
2025-02-14 13:00: 0.0015
2025-02-14 16:00: 0.0015
2025-02-14 19:00: 0.0015
2025-02-14 22:00: 0.0015
2025-02-15 01:00: 0.0015
2025-02-15 04:00: 0.0015
2025-02-15 07:00: 0.0015
2025-02-15 10:00: 0.0015
Trade Summary: No trades available

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 515874
Question: Will the AfD win less than 10% of the vote in the German election?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 12752500.374611
Price History:
2025-02-15 21:00: 0.9985
2025-02-16 00:00: 0.9985
2025-02-16 03:00: 0.9985
2025-02-16 06:00: 0.9985
2025-02-16 09:00: 0.9985
2025-02-16 12:00: 0.9985
2025-02-16 15:00: 0.9985
2025-02-16 18:00: 0.9985
2025-02-16 21:00: 0.9985
2025-02-17 00:00: 0.9985
2025-02-17 03:00: 0.9985
2025-02-17 06:00: 0.9985
2025-02-17 09:00: 0.9985
2025-02-17 12:00: 0.9985
2025-02-17 15:00: 0.9995
2025-02-17 18:00: 0.9995
2025-02-17 21:00: 0.9995
2025-02-18 00:00: 0.9995
2025-02-18 03:00: 0.9995
2025-02-18 06:00: 0.9995
2025-02-18 09:00: 0.9990
2025-02-18 12:00: 0.9995
2025-02-18 15:00: 0.9995
2025-02-18 18:00: 0.9995
2025-02-18 21:00: 0.9995
2025-02-19 00:00: 0.9995
2025-02-19 03:00: 0.9995
2025-02-19 06:00: 0.9995
2025-02-19 09:00: 0.9995
2025-02-19 12:00: 0.9995
2025-02-19 15:00: 0.9995
2025-02-19 18:00: 0.9995
2025-02-19 21:00: 0.9995
2025-02-20 00:00: 0.9995
2025-02-20 03:00: 0.9995
2025-02-20 06:00: 0.9995
2025-02-20 09:00: 0.9995
2025-02-20 12:00: 0.9995
2025-02-20 15:00: 0.9995
2025-02-20 18:00: 0.9995
2025-02-20 21:00: 0.9995
2025-02-21 00:00: 0.9995
2025-02-21 03:00: 0.9995
2025-02-21 06:00: 0.9995
2025-02-21 09:00: 0.9995
2025-02-21 12:00: 0.9995
2025-02-21 15:00: 0.9995
2025-02-21 18:00: 0.9995
2025-02-21 21:00: 0.9995
2025-02-22 00:00: 0.9995
Trade Summary: No trades available

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 515874
Question: Will the AfD win less than 10% of the vote in the German election?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 12752500.374611
Price History:
2025-02-22 12:00: 0.0005
2025-02-22 15:00: 0.0005
2025-02-22 18:00: 0.0015
2025-02-22 21:00: 0.0010
2025-02-23 00:00: 0.0005
2025-02-23 03:00: 0.0005
2025-02-23 06:00: 0.0005
2025-02-23 09:00: 0.0005
2025-02-23 12:00: 0.0005
2025-02-23 15:00: 0.0005
2025-02-23 18:00: 0.0005
2025-02-23 21:00: 0.0005
2025-02-24 00:00: 0.0005
2025-02-24 03:00: 0.0005
2025-02-24 06:00: 0.0005
2025-02-24 09:00: 0.0005
2025-02-24 12:00: 0.0005
2025-02-24 15:00: 0.0005
2025-02-24 18:00: 0.0005
2025-02-24 21:00: 0.0005
2025-02-25 00:00: 0.0005
2025-02-25 03:00: 0.0005
2025-02-25 06:00: 0.0005
2025-02-25 09:00: 0.0005
2025-02-25 12:00: 0.0005
2025-02-25 15:00: 0.0005
2025-02-25 18:00: 0.0005
2025-02-25 21:00: 0.0005
2025-02-26 00:00: 0.0005
2025-02-26 03:00: 0.0005
2025-02-26 06:00: 0.0005
2025-02-26 09:00: 0.0030
2025-02-26 12:00: 0.0005
2025-02-26 15:00: 0.0015
2025-02-26 18:00: 0.0005
2025-02-26 21:00: 0.0005
2025-02-27 00:00: 0.0005
2025-02-27 03:00: 0.0005
2025-02-27 06:00: 0.0005
2025-02-27 09:00: 0.0005
2025-02-27 12:00: 0.0005
2025-02-27 15:00: 0.0005
2025-02-27 18:00: 0.0005
2025-02-27 21:00: 0.0005
2025-02-28 00:00: 0.0015
2025-02-28 03:00: 0.0015
2025-02-28 06:00: 0.0010
2025-02-28 09:00: 0.0010
2025-02-28 12:00: 0.0010
2025-02-28 15:00: 0.0010
Trade Summary: No trades available

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 515874
Question: Will the AfD win less than 10% of the vote in the German election?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 12752500.374611
Price History:
2025-03-01 02:00: 0.9995
2025-03-01 05:00: 0.9995
2025-03-01 08:00: 0.9995
2025-03-01 11:00: 0.9995
2025-03-01 14:00: 0.9995
2025-03-01 17:00: 0.9995
2025-03-01 20:00: 0.9995
2025-03-01 23:00: 0.9995
2025-03-02 02:00: 0.9995
2025-03-02 05:00: 0.9995
2025-03-02 08:00: 0.9995
2025-03-02 11:00: 0.9995
2025-03-02 14:00: 0.9995
2025-03-02 17:00: 0.9995
2025-03-02 20:00: 0.9995
2025-03-02 23:00: 0.9995
2025-03-03 02:00: 0.9995
2025-03-03 05:00: 0.9995
2025-03-03 08:00: 0.9995
2025-03-03 11:00: 0.9995
2025-03-03 14:00: 0.9995
2025-03-03 17:00: 0.9995
2025-03-03 20:00: 0.9995
2025-03-03 23:00: 0.9995
2025-03-04 02:00: 0.9995
2025-03-04 05:00: 0.9995
2025-03-04 08:00: 0.9995
2025-03-04 11:00: 0.9995
2025-03-04 14:00: 0.9995
2025-03-04 17:00: 0.9995
2025-03-04 20:00: 0.9995
2025-03-04 23:00: 0.9995
2025-03-05 02:00: 0.9995
2025-03-05 05:00: 0.9995
2025-03-05 08:00: 0.9995
2025-03-05 11:00: 0.9995
2025-03-05 14:00: 0.9985
2025-03-05 17:00: 0.9985
2025-03-05 20:00: 0.9985
2025-03-05 23:00: 0.9985
2025-03-06 02:00: 0.9985
2025-03-06 05:00: 0.9985
2025-03-06 08:00: 0.9985
2025-03-06 11:00: 0.9995
2025-03-06 14:00: 0.9995
2025-03-06 17:00: 0.9995
2025-03-06 20:00: 0.9995
2025-03-06 23:00: 0.9995
2025-03-07 02:00: 0.9995
2025-03-07 05:00: 0.9995
Trade Summary: No trades available

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 515874
Question: Will the AfD win less than 10% of the vote in the German election?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 12752500.374611
Price History:
2025-03-07 17:00: 0.0005
2025-03-07 20:00: 0.0005
2025-03-07 23:00: 0.0005
2025-03-08 02:00: 0.0005
2025-03-08 05:00: 0.0005
2025-03-08 08:00: 0.0005
2025-03-08 11:00: 0.0005
2025-03-08 14:00: 0.0005
2025-03-08 17:00: 0.0005
2025-03-08 20:00: 0.0005
2025-03-08 23:00: 0.0005
2025-03-09 03:00: 0.0005
2025-03-09 06:00: 0.0005
2025-03-09 09:00: 0.0005
2025-03-09 12:00: 0.0005
2025-03-09 15:00: 0.0005
2025-03-09 18:00: 0.0005
2025-03-09 21:00: 0.0005
2025-03-10 00:00: 0.0005
2025-03-10 03:00: 0.0005
2025-03-10 06:00: 0.0005
2025-03-10 09:00: 0.0005
2025-03-10 12:00: 0.0005
2025-03-10 15:00: 0.0005
2025-03-10 18:00: 0.0005
2025-03-10 21:00: 0.0005
2025-03-11 00:00: 0.0005
2025-03-11 03:00: 0.0005
2025-03-11 06:00: 0.0005
2025-03-11 09:00: 0.0005
2025-03-11 12:00: 0.0005
2025-03-11 15:00: 0.0005
2025-03-11 18:00: 0.0005
2025-03-11 21:00: 0.0005
2025-03-12 00:00: 0.0005
2025-03-12 03:00: 0.0035
2025-03-12 06:00: 0.0030
2025-03-12 09:00: 0.0005
2025-03-12 12:00: 0.0005
2025-03-12 15:00: 0.0005
2025-03-12 18:00: 0.0005
2025-03-12 21:00: 0.0005
2025-03-13 00:00: 0.0005
2025-03-13 03:00: 0.0015
2025-03-13 06:00: 0.0020
2025-03-13 09:00: 0.0005
2025-03-13 12:00: 0.0005
2025-03-13 15:00: 0.0005
2025-03-13 18:00: 0.0005
2025-03-13 21:00: 0.0005
Trade Summary: No trades available

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 518097
Question: Will 52 Senators vote to confirm RFK as Secretary of HHS?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 54081.140882
Price History:
2025-01-10 15:00: 0.1700
2025-01-10 16:00: 0.1550
2025-01-10 17:00: 0.1550
2025-01-10 18:00: 0.1550
2025-01-10 19:00: 0.1550
2025-01-10 20:00: 0.1550
2025-01-10 21:00: 0.1550
2025-01-10 22:00: 0.1550
2025-01-10 23:00: 0.1550
2025-01-11 00:00: 0.1550
2025-01-11 01:00: 0.1550
2025-01-11 02:00: 0.1550
2025-01-11 03:00: 0.1550
2025-01-11 04:00: 0.1300
2025-01-11 05:00: 0.1300
2025-01-11 06:00: 0.1300
2025-01-11 07:00: 0.1300
2025-01-11 08:00: 0.1300
2025-01-11 09:00: 0.1300
2025-01-11 10:00: 0.1300
2025-01-11 11:00: 0.1300
2025-01-11 12:00: 0.1300
2025-01-11 13:00: 0.1300
2025-01-11 14:00: 0.1300
2025-01-11 15:00: 0.1300
2025-01-11 16:00: 0.1300
2025-01-11 17:00: 0.1300
2025-01-11 18:00: 0.2350
2025-01-11 19:00: 0.2250
2025-01-11 20:00: 0.2200
2025-01-11 21:00: 0.1550
2025-01-11 22:00: 0.2350
2025-01-11 23:00: 0.2300
2025-01-12 00:00: 0.2300
2025-01-12 01:00: 0.2300
2025-01-12 02:00: 0.2350
2025-01-12 03:00: 0.2400
2025-01-12 04:00: 0.2400
2025-01-12 05:00: 0.1700
2025-01-12 06:00: 0.1700
2025-01-12 07:00: 0.1700
2025-01-12 08:00: 0.1700
2025-01-12 09:00: 0.1950
2025-01-12 10:00: 0.1700
2025-01-12 11:00: 0.1950
2025-01-12 12:00: 0.1850
2025-01-12 13:00: 0.1850
2025-01-12 14:00: 0.1850
2025-01-12 15:00: 0.1850
2025-01-12 16:00: 0.1850
Trade Summary: Total trades: 7, Buy volume: 96.42, Sell volume: 6.31, Average price: 0.6257, Price range: 0.1800 - 0.8100

Output: No


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 518097
Question: Will 52 Senators vote to confirm RFK as Secretary of HHS?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 54081.140882
Price History:
2025-01-13 05:00: 0.8150
2025-01-13 06:00: 0.8150
2025-01-13 07:00: 0.8150
2025-01-13 08:00: 0.8150
2025-01-13 09:00: 0.8150
2025-01-13 10:00: 0.8150
2025-01-13 11:00: 0.8150
2025-01-13 12:00: 0.8150
2025-01-13 13:00: 0.8150
2025-01-13 14:00: 0.8300
2025-01-13 15:00: 0.8350
2025-01-13 16:00: 0.8350
2025-01-13 17:00: 0.8350
2025-01-13 18:00: 0.8350
2025-01-13 19:00: 0.8350
2025-01-13 20:00: 0.8350
2025-01-13 21:00: 0.8350
2025-01-13 22:00: 0.8350
2025-01-13 23:00: 0.8350
2025-01-14 00:00: 0.8350
2025-01-14 01:00: 0.8350
2025-01-14 02:00: 0.8350
2025-01-14 03:00: 0.8350
2025-01-14 04:00: 0.8350
2025-01-14 05:00: 0.8350
2025-01-14 06:00: 0.8350
2025-01-14 07:00: 0.8350
2025-01-14 08:00: 0.8350
2025-01-14 09:00: 0.8350
2025-01-14 10:00: 0.8350
2025-01-14 11:00: 0.8350
2025-01-14 12:00: 0.8350
2025-01-14 13:00: 0.8350
2025-01-14 14:00: 0.8350
2025-01-14 15:00: 0.8350
2025-01-14 16:00: 0.8350
2025-01-14 17:00: 0.8350
2025-01-14 18:00: 0.8350
2025-01-14 19:00: 0.8350
2025-01-14 20:00: 0.8350
2025-01-14 21:00: 0.8350
2025-01-14 22:00: 0.8350
2025-01-14 23:00: 0.8350
2025-01-15 00:00: 0.8350
2025-01-15 01:00: 0.8350
2025-01-15 02:00: 0.8350
2025-01-15 03:00: 0.8350
2025-01-15 04:00: 0.8350
2025-01-15 05:00: 0.8350
2025-01-15 06:00: 0.8350
Trade Summary: Total trades: 3, Buy volume: 183.69, Sell volume: 40.00, Average price: 0.6133, Price range: 0.1800 - 0.8400

Output: No


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 518097
Question: Will 52 Senators vote to confirm RFK as Secretary of HHS?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 54081.140882
Price History:
2025-01-15 20:00: 0.1650
2025-01-15 21:00: 0.1650
2025-01-15 22:00: 0.1650
2025-01-15 23:00: 0.1650
2025-01-16 00:00: 0.1650
2025-01-16 01:00: 0.1650
2025-01-16 02:00: 0.1650
2025-01-16 03:00: 0.1650
2025-01-16 04:00: 0.1650
2025-01-16 05:00: 0.1650
2025-01-16 06:00: 0.1650
2025-01-16 07:00: 0.1650
2025-01-16 08:00: 0.1650
2025-01-16 09:00: 0.1650
2025-01-16 10:00: 0.1650
2025-01-16 11:00: 0.1650
2025-01-16 12:00: 0.1650
2025-01-16 13:00: 0.1650
2025-01-16 14:00: 0.1650
2025-01-16 15:00: 0.1600
2025-01-16 16:00: 0.1600
2025-01-16 17:00: 0.1600
2025-01-16 18:00: 0.1600
2025-01-16 19:00: 0.1600
2025-01-16 20:00: 0.1600
2025-01-16 21:00: 0.1550
2025-01-16 22:00: 0.1550
2025-01-16 23:00: 0.1550
2025-01-17 00:00: 0.1600
2025-01-17 01:00: 0.1550
2025-01-17 02:00: 0.1600
2025-01-17 03:00: 0.1550
2025-01-17 04:00: 0.1550
2025-01-17 05:00: 0.1600
2025-01-17 06:00: 0.1550
2025-01-17 07:00: 0.1550
2025-01-17 08:00: 0.1600
2025-01-17 09:00: 0.1600
2025-01-17 10:00: 0.1550
2025-01-17 11:00: 0.1550
2025-01-17 12:00: 0.1550
2025-01-17 13:00: 0.1550
2025-01-17 14:00: 0.1550
2025-01-17 15:00: 0.1550
2025-01-17 16:00: 0.1600
2025-01-17 17:00: 0.1550
2025-01-17 18:00: 0.1550
2025-01-17 19:00: 0.1550
2025-01-17 20:00: 0.1550
2025-01-17 21:00: 0.1550
Trade Summary: Total trades: 6, Buy volume: 356.38, Sell volume: 7.62, Average price: 0.7317, Price range: 0.1600 - 0.8500

Output: No


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 518097
Question: Will 52 Senators vote to confirm RFK as Secretary of HHS?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 54081.140882
Price History:
2025-01-18 10:00: 0.8450
2025-01-18 11:00: 0.8450
2025-01-18 12:00: 0.8450
2025-01-18 13:00: 0.8450
2025-01-18 14:00: 0.8450
2025-01-18 15:00: 0.8450
2025-01-18 16:00: 0.8450
2025-01-18 17:00: 0.8450
2025-01-18 18:00: 0.8450
2025-01-18 19:00: 0.8450
2025-01-18 20:00: 0.8450
2025-01-18 21:00: 0.8450
2025-01-18 22:00: 0.8450
2025-01-18 23:00: 0.8450
2025-01-19 00:00: 0.8450
2025-01-19 01:00: 0.8450
2025-01-19 02:00: 0.8550
2025-01-19 03:00: 0.8500
2025-01-19 04:00: 0.8500
2025-01-19 05:00: 0.8500
2025-01-19 06:00: 0.8500
2025-01-19 07:00: 0.8500
2025-01-19 08:00: 0.8500
2025-01-19 09:00: 0.8500
2025-01-19 10:00: 0.8500
2025-01-19 11:00: 0.8500
2025-01-19 12:00: 0.8500
2025-01-19 13:00: 0.8500
2025-01-19 14:00: 0.8500
2025-01-19 15:00: 0.8500
2025-01-19 16:00: 0.8500
2025-01-19 17:00: 0.8500
2025-01-19 18:00: 0.8500
2025-01-19 19:00: 0.8500
2025-01-19 20:00: 0.8500
2025-01-19 21:00: 0.8500
2025-01-19 22:00: 0.8500
2025-01-19 23:00: 0.8500
2025-01-20 00:00: 0.8500
2025-01-20 01:00: 0.8500
2025-01-20 02:00: 0.8500
2025-01-20 03:00: 0.8500
2025-01-20 04:00: 0.8500
2025-01-20 05:00: 0.8500
2025-01-20 06:00: 0.8500
2025-01-20 07:00: 0.8500
2025-01-20 08:00: 0.8500
2025-01-20 09:00: 0.8500
2025-01-20 10:00: 0.8500
2025-01-20 11:00: 0.8500
Trade Summary: Total trades: 7, Buy volume: 157.00, Sell volume: 49.66, Average price: 0.5529, Price range: 0.1400 - 0.8600

Output: No


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 518097
Question: Will 52 Senators vote to confirm RFK as Secretary of HHS?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 54081.140882
Price History:
2025-01-21 01:00: 0.0750
2025-01-21 02:00: 0.0750
2025-01-21 03:00: 0.0750
2025-01-21 04:00: 0.0750
2025-01-21 05:00: 0.0750
2025-01-21 06:00: 0.0750
2025-01-21 07:00: 0.0745
2025-01-21 08:00: 0.0345
2025-01-21 09:00: 0.0255
2025-01-21 10:00: 0.0800
2025-01-21 11:00: 0.0795
2025-01-21 12:00: 0.0800
2025-01-21 13:00: 0.0800
2025-01-21 14:00: 0.0800
2025-01-21 15:00: 0.0850
2025-01-21 16:00: 0.0870
2025-01-21 17:00: 0.0840
2025-01-21 18:00: 0.0870
2025-01-21 19:00: 0.0840
2025-01-21 20:00: 0.0835
2025-01-21 21:00: 0.0835
2025-01-21 22:00: 0.1055
2025-01-21 23:00: 0.1320
2025-01-22 00:00: 0.1335
2025-01-22 01:00: 0.1385
2025-01-22 02:00: 0.1385
2025-01-22 03:00: 0.1385
2025-01-22 04:00: 0.1380
2025-01-22 05:00: 0.1180
2025-01-22 06:00: 0.2140
2025-01-22 07:00: 0.2140
2025-01-22 08:00: 0.2040
2025-01-22 09:00: 0.1715
2025-01-22 10:00: 0.1565
2025-01-22 11:00: 0.1760
2025-01-22 12:00: 0.1660
2025-01-22 13:00: 0.1455
2025-01-22 14:00: 0.1550
2025-01-22 15:00: 0.1625
2025-01-22 16:00: 0.1550
2025-01-22 17:00: 0.1580
2025-01-22 18:00: 0.1605
2025-01-22 19:00: 0.1590
2025-01-22 20:00: 0.1705
2025-01-22 21:00: 0.1480
2025-01-22 22:00: 0.1450
2025-01-22 23:00: 0.1405
2025-01-23 00:00: 0.1595
2025-01-23 01:00: 0.1530
2025-01-23 02:00: 0.1445
Trade Summary: Total trades: 46, Buy volume: 2045.19, Sell volume: 183.07, Average price: 0.4588, Price range: 0.0660 - 0.9350

Output: No


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 518097
Question: Will 52 Senators vote to confirm RFK as Secretary of HHS?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 54081.140882
Price History:
2025-01-23 15:00: 0.8225
2025-01-23 16:00: 0.8230
2025-01-23 17:00: 0.8235
2025-01-23 18:00: 0.8195
2025-01-23 19:00: 0.8200
2025-01-23 20:00: 0.8125
2025-01-23 21:00: 0.8225
2025-01-23 22:00: 0.8220
2025-01-23 23:00: 0.8285
2025-01-24 00:00: 0.8300
2025-01-24 01:00: 0.8290
2025-01-24 02:00: 0.8270
2025-01-24 03:00: 0.8245
2025-01-24 04:00: 0.8330
2025-01-24 05:00: 0.8325
2025-01-24 06:00: 0.8300
2025-01-24 07:00: 0.8295
2025-01-24 08:00: 0.8295
2025-01-24 09:00: 0.8295
2025-01-24 10:00: 0.8300
2025-01-24 11:00: 0.8340
2025-01-24 12:00: 0.8290
2025-01-24 13:00: 0.8225
2025-01-24 14:00: 0.8225
2025-01-24 15:00: 0.8310
2025-01-24 16:00: 0.8325
2025-01-24 17:00: 0.8300
2025-01-24 18:00: 0.8225
2025-01-24 19:00: 0.8225
2025-01-24 20:00: 0.8220
2025-01-24 21:00: 0.8220
2025-01-24 22:00: 0.8170
2025-01-24 23:00: 0.8255
2025-01-25 00:00: 0.8220
2025-01-25 01:00: 0.8240
2025-01-25 02:00: 0.8220
2025-01-25 03:00: 0.8255
2025-01-25 04:00: 0.8270
2025-01-25 05:00: 0.8370
2025-01-25 06:00: 0.8370
2025-01-25 07:00: 0.8275
2025-01-25 08:00: 0.8255
2025-01-25 09:00: 0.8250
2025-01-25 10:00: 0.8250
2025-01-25 11:00: 0.8325
2025-01-25 12:00: 0.8275
2025-01-25 13:00: 0.8255
2025-01-25 14:00: 0.8375
2025-01-25 15:00: 0.8380
2025-01-25 16:00: 0.8330
Trade Summary: Total trades: 27, Buy volume: 945.72, Sell volume: 554.90, Average price: 0.4160, Price range: 0.1600 - 0.8400

Output: No


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 518097
Question: Will 52 Senators vote to confirm RFK as Secretary of HHS?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 54081.140882
Price History:
2025-01-26 06:00: 0.1700
2025-01-26 07:00: 0.1700
2025-01-26 08:00: 0.1695
2025-01-26 09:00: 0.1700
2025-01-26 10:00: 0.1700
2025-01-26 11:00: 0.1700
2025-01-26 12:00: 0.1690
2025-01-26 13:00: 0.1635
2025-01-26 14:00: 0.1685
2025-01-26 15:00: 0.1520
2025-01-26 16:00: 0.1510
2025-01-26 17:00: 0.1445
2025-01-26 18:00: 0.1465
2025-01-26 19:00: 0.1445
2025-01-26 20:00: 0.1475
2025-01-26 21:00: 0.1490
2025-01-26 22:00: 0.1465
2025-01-26 23:00: 0.1460
2025-01-27 00:00: 0.1445
2025-01-27 01:00: 0.1445
2025-01-27 02:00: 0.1455
2025-01-27 03:00: 0.1455
2025-01-27 04:00: 0.1455
2025-01-27 05:00: 0.1455
2025-01-27 06:00: 0.1455
2025-01-27 07:00: 0.1455
2025-01-27 08:00: 0.1455
2025-01-27 09:00: 0.1455
2025-01-27 10:00: 0.1455
2025-01-27 11:00: 0.1450
2025-01-27 12:00: 0.1445
2025-01-27 13:00: 0.1440
2025-01-27 14:00: 0.1350
2025-01-27 15:00: 0.1310
2025-01-27 16:00: 0.1430
2025-01-27 17:00: 0.1325
2025-01-27 18:00: 0.1380
2025-01-27 19:00: 0.1415
2025-01-27 20:00: 0.1420
2025-01-27 21:00: 0.1355
2025-01-27 22:00: 0.1340
2025-01-27 23:00: 0.1340
2025-01-28 00:00: 0.1340
2025-01-28 01:00: 0.1375
2025-01-28 02:00: 0.1385
2025-01-28 03:00: 0.1360
2025-01-28 04:00: 0.1455
2025-01-28 05:00: 0.1455
2025-01-28 06:00: 0.1510
2025-01-28 07:00: 0.1555
Trade Summary: Total trades: 47, Buy volume: 1425.91, Sell volume: 63.00, Average price: 0.7539, Price range: 0.1000 - 0.8990

Output: No


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 518097
Question: Will 52 Senators vote to confirm RFK as Secretary of HHS?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 54081.140882
Price History:
2025-01-28 20:00: 0.8820
2025-01-28 21:00: 0.8820
2025-01-28 22:00: 0.8820
2025-01-28 23:00: 0.8835
2025-01-29 00:00: 0.8825
2025-01-29 01:00: 0.8825
2025-01-29 02:00: 0.8825
2025-01-29 03:00: 0.8825
2025-01-29 04:00: 0.8825
2025-01-29 05:00: 0.8825
2025-01-29 06:00: 0.8825
2025-01-29 07:00: 0.8825
2025-01-29 08:00: 0.8820
2025-01-29 09:00: 0.8820
2025-01-29 10:00: 0.8830
2025-01-29 11:00: 0.8820
2025-01-29 12:00: 0.8980
2025-01-29 13:00: 0.8900
2025-01-29 14:00: 0.9330
2025-01-29 15:00: 0.9330
2025-01-29 16:00: 0.9155
2025-01-29 17:00: 0.9105
2025-01-29 18:00: 0.9105
2025-01-29 19:00: 0.9045
2025-01-29 20:00: 0.9105
2025-01-29 21:00: 0.9010
2025-01-29 22:00: 0.8975
2025-01-29 23:00: 0.9020
2025-01-30 00:00: 0.9030
2025-01-30 01:00: 0.9035
2025-01-30 02:00: 0.9035
2025-01-30 03:00: 0.9045
2025-01-30 04:00: 0.9035
2025-01-30 05:00: 0.9025
2025-01-30 06:00: 0.8990
2025-01-30 07:00: 0.9015
2025-01-30 08:00: 0.9015
2025-01-30 09:00: 0.9035
2025-01-30 10:00: 0.9030
2025-01-30 11:00: 0.9035
2025-01-30 12:00: 0.9035
2025-01-30 13:00: 0.9025
2025-01-30 14:00: 0.9055
2025-01-30 15:00: 0.9125
2025-01-30 16:00: 0.9115
2025-01-30 17:00: 0.9115
2025-01-30 18:00: 0.9140
2025-01-30 19:00: 0.9125
2025-01-30 20:00: 0.9140
2025-01-30 21:00: 0.9170
Trade Summary: Total trades: 43, Buy volume: 1773.99, Sell volume: 769.79, Average price: 0.5950, Price range: 0.0760 - 0.9380

Output: No


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 518097
Question: Will 52 Senators vote to confirm RFK as Secretary of HHS?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 54081.140882
Price History:
2025-01-31 11:00: 0.0705
2025-01-31 12:00: 0.0765
2025-01-31 13:00: 0.0755
2025-01-31 14:00: 0.0740
2025-01-31 15:00: 0.0755
2025-01-31 16:00: 0.0765
2025-01-31 17:00: 0.0760
2025-01-31 18:00: 0.0765
2025-01-31 19:00: 0.0755
2025-01-31 20:00: 0.0755
2025-01-31 21:00: 0.0755
2025-01-31 22:00: 0.0770
2025-01-31 23:00: 0.0770
2025-02-01 00:00: 0.0770
2025-02-01 01:00: 0.0895
2025-02-01 02:00: 0.0880
2025-02-01 03:00: 0.0855
2025-02-01 04:00: 0.0785
2025-02-01 05:00: 0.0780
2025-02-01 06:00: 0.0775
2025-02-01 07:00: 0.0775
2025-02-01 08:00: 0.0820
2025-02-01 09:00: 0.0825
2025-02-01 10:00: 0.0835
2025-02-01 11:00: 0.0865
2025-02-01 12:00: 0.0870
2025-02-01 13:00: 0.0880
2025-02-01 14:00: 0.0905
2025-02-01 15:00: 0.0905
2025-02-01 16:00: 0.0910
2025-02-01 17:00: 0.0910
2025-02-01 18:00: 0.0920
2025-02-01 19:00: 0.0920
2025-02-01 20:00: 0.0995
2025-02-01 21:00: 0.0960
2025-02-01 22:00: 0.1140
2025-02-01 23:00: 0.1145
2025-02-02 00:00: 0.1145
2025-02-02 01:00: 0.1160
2025-02-02 02:00: 0.1170
2025-02-02 03:00: 0.1200
2025-02-02 04:00: 0.1245
2025-02-02 05:00: 0.1265
2025-02-02 06:00: 0.1235
2025-02-02 07:00: 0.1130
2025-02-02 08:00: 0.1185
2025-02-02 09:00: 0.1155
2025-02-02 10:00: 0.1130
2025-02-02 11:00: 0.1205
2025-02-02 12:00: 0.1210
Trade Summary: Total trades: 49, Buy volume: 5525.63, Sell volume: 383.00, Average price: 0.3251, Price range: 0.0888 - 0.9250

Output: No


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 518097
Question: Will 52 Senators vote to confirm RFK as Secretary of HHS?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 54081.140882
Price History:
2025-02-03 01:00: 0.8640
2025-02-03 02:00: 0.8635
2025-02-03 03:00: 0.8620
2025-02-03 04:00: 0.8645
2025-02-03 05:00: 0.8660
2025-02-03 06:00: 0.8685
2025-02-03 07:00: 0.8770
2025-02-03 08:00: 0.8670
2025-02-03 09:00: 0.8660
2025-02-03 10:00: 0.8675
2025-02-03 11:00: 0.8715
2025-02-03 12:00: 0.8540
2025-02-03 13:00: 0.8570
2025-02-03 14:00: 0.8560
2025-02-03 15:00: 0.8605
2025-02-03 16:00: 0.8610
2025-02-03 17:00: 0.8570
2025-02-03 18:00: 0.8650
2025-02-03 19:00: 0.8570
2025-02-03 20:00: 0.8535
2025-02-03 21:00: 0.8495
2025-02-03 22:00: 0.8525
2025-02-03 23:00: 0.8610
2025-02-04 00:00: 0.8450
2025-02-04 01:00: 0.8465
2025-02-04 02:00: 0.8465
2025-02-04 03:00: 0.8465
2025-02-04 04:00: 0.8460
2025-02-04 05:00: 0.8450
2025-02-04 06:00: 0.8450
2025-02-04 07:00: 0.8450
2025-02-04 08:00: 0.7310
2025-02-04 09:00: 0.5780
2025-02-04 10:00: 0.7175
2025-02-04 11:00: 0.5620
2025-02-04 12:00: 0.5255
2025-02-04 13:00: 0.5130
2025-02-04 14:00: 0.5210
2025-02-04 15:00: 0.5850
2025-02-04 16:00: 0.6110
2025-02-04 17:00: 0.5950
2025-02-04 18:00: 0.5690
2025-02-04 19:00: 0.5675
2025-02-04 20:00: 0.5700
2025-02-04 21:00: 0.5760
2025-02-04 22:00: 0.5685
2025-02-04 23:00: 0.5705
2025-02-05 00:00: 0.5840
2025-02-05 01:00: 0.6070
2025-02-05 02:00: 0.5895
Trade Summary: Total trades: 45, Buy volume: 800.59, Sell volume: 827.25, Average price: 0.5064, Price range: 0.1400 - 0.8810

Output: No


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 518097
Question: Will 52 Senators vote to confirm RFK as Secretary of HHS?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 54081.140882
Price History:
2025-02-05 16:00: 0.4250
2025-02-05 17:00: 0.4140
2025-02-05 18:00: 0.4035
2025-02-05 19:00: 0.4030
2025-02-05 20:00: 0.3975
2025-02-05 21:00: 0.4000
2025-02-05 22:00: 0.4000
2025-02-05 23:00: 0.4115
2025-02-06 00:00: 0.4080
2025-02-06 01:00: 0.3930
2025-02-06 02:00: 0.3930
2025-02-06 03:00: 0.3980
2025-02-06 04:00: 0.4040
2025-02-06 05:00: 0.4010
2025-02-06 06:00: 0.3995
2025-02-06 07:00: 0.4010
2025-02-06 08:00: 0.4005
2025-02-06 09:00: 0.4430
2025-02-06 10:00: 0.4060
2025-02-06 11:00: 0.3985
2025-02-06 12:00: 0.4025
2025-02-06 13:00: 0.4100
2025-02-06 14:00: 0.4045
2025-02-06 15:00: 0.4065
2025-02-06 16:00: 0.4005
2025-02-06 17:00: 0.4045
2025-02-06 18:00: 0.4005
2025-02-06 19:00: 0.4060
2025-02-06 20:00: 0.4045
2025-02-06 21:00: 0.3950
2025-02-06 22:00: 0.3960
2025-02-06 23:00: 0.4880
2025-02-07 00:00: 0.5570
2025-02-07 01:00: 0.5115
2025-02-07 02:00: 0.5180
2025-02-07 03:00: 0.5505
2025-02-07 04:00: 0.6365
2025-02-07 05:00: 0.6375
2025-02-07 06:00: 0.6360
2025-02-07 07:00: 0.6360
2025-02-07 08:00: 0.5735
2025-02-07 09:00: 0.5830
2025-02-07 10:00: 0.6015
2025-02-07 11:00: 0.6235
2025-02-07 12:00: 0.6275
2025-02-07 13:00: 0.6330
2025-02-07 14:00: 0.6540
2025-02-07 15:00: 0.6345
2025-02-07 16:00: 0.6585
2025-02-07 17:00: 0.6205
Trade Summary: Total trades: 61, Buy volume: 4271.02, Sell volume: 1066.19, Average price: 0.5771, Price range: 0.3900 - 0.7260

Output: No


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 518097
Question: Will 52 Senators vote to confirm RFK as Secretary of HHS?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 54081.140882
Price History:
2025-02-08 06:00: 0.4090
2025-02-08 07:00: 0.3760
2025-02-08 08:00: 0.3545
2025-02-08 09:00: 0.3725
2025-02-08 10:00: 0.4000
2025-02-08 11:00: 0.3990
2025-02-08 12:00: 0.3985
2025-02-08 13:00: 0.3445
2025-02-08 14:00: 0.3445
2025-02-08 15:00: 0.3050
2025-02-08 16:00: 0.3055
2025-02-08 17:00: 0.3410
2025-02-08 18:00: 0.3450
2025-02-08 19:00: 0.3445
2025-02-08 20:00: 0.3415
2025-02-08 21:00: 0.3390
2025-02-08 22:00: 0.3365
2025-02-08 23:00: 0.3345
2025-02-09 00:00: 0.3315
2025-02-09 01:00: 0.3325
2025-02-09 02:00: 0.3315
2025-02-09 03:00: 0.3295
2025-02-09 04:00: 0.3300
2025-02-09 05:00: 0.3155
2025-02-09 06:00: 0.3310
2025-02-09 07:00: 0.3360
2025-02-09 08:00: 0.3355
2025-02-09 09:00: 0.3325
2025-02-09 10:00: 0.3340
2025-02-09 11:00: 0.3335
2025-02-09 12:00: 0.3355
2025-02-09 13:00: 0.3320
2025-02-09 14:00: 0.3350
2025-02-09 15:00: 0.3350
2025-02-09 16:00: 0.3315
2025-02-09 17:00: 0.3320
2025-02-09 18:00: 0.3320
2025-02-09 19:00: 0.3295
2025-02-09 20:00: 0.3295
2025-02-09 21:00: 0.3300
2025-02-09 22:00: 0.3295
2025-02-09 23:00: 0.3335
2025-02-10 00:00: 0.3330
2025-02-10 01:00: 0.3305
2025-02-10 02:00: 0.3305
2025-02-10 03:00: 0.3300
2025-02-10 04:00: 0.3325
2025-02-10 05:00: 0.3335
2025-02-10 06:00: 0.3330
2025-02-10 07:00: 0.3345
Trade Summary: Total trades: 56, Buy volume: 4655.52, Sell volume: 1841.82, Average price: 0.5717, Price range: 0.2980 - 0.7260

Output: No


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 518097
Question: Will 52 Senators vote to confirm RFK as Secretary of HHS?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 54081.140882
Price History:
2025-02-10 21:00: 0.7405
2025-02-10 22:00: 0.7220
2025-02-10 23:00: 0.7730
2025-02-11 00:00: 0.7765
2025-02-11 01:00: 0.7725
2025-02-11 02:00: 0.7705
2025-02-11 03:00: 0.7760
2025-02-11 04:00: 0.7750
2025-02-11 05:00: 0.7755
2025-02-11 06:00: 0.7795
2025-02-11 07:00: 0.7785
2025-02-11 08:00: 0.7955
2025-02-11 09:00: 0.7950
2025-02-11 10:00: 0.8000
2025-02-11 11:00: 0.8000
2025-02-11 12:00: 0.8000
2025-02-11 13:00: 0.7985
2025-02-11 14:00: 0.8000
2025-02-11 15:00: 0.7980
2025-02-11 16:00: 0.7795
2025-02-11 17:00: 0.7750
2025-02-11 18:00: 0.7750
2025-02-11 19:00: 0.7750
2025-02-11 20:00: 0.7735
2025-02-11 21:00: 0.7665
2025-02-11 22:00: 0.7685
2025-02-11 23:00: 0.7615
2025-02-12 00:00: 0.7615
2025-02-12 01:00: 0.7615
2025-02-12 02:00: 0.7615
2025-02-12 03:00: 0.7740
2025-02-12 04:00: 0.7735
2025-02-12 05:00: 0.7725
2025-02-12 06:00: 0.7705
2025-02-12 07:00: 0.7705
2025-02-12 08:00: 0.7705
2025-02-12 09:00: 0.7695
2025-02-12 10:00: 0.7650
2025-02-12 11:00: 0.7885
2025-02-12 12:00: 0.7885
2025-02-12 13:00: 0.8765
2025-02-12 14:00: 0.8340
2025-02-12 15:00: 0.7370
2025-02-12 16:00: 0.7930
2025-02-12 17:00: 0.7980
2025-02-12 18:00: 0.8080
2025-02-12 19:00: 0.7930
2025-02-12 20:00: 0.8145
2025-02-12 21:00: 0.8285
2025-02-12 22:00: 0.8325
Trade Summary: Total trades: 317, Buy volume: 16397.89, Sell volume: 4160.35, Average price: 0.6510, Price range: 0.1070 - 0.9478

Output: No


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 518097
Question: Will 52 Senators vote to confirm RFK as Secretary of HHS?
Volume: 54081.140882
Price History:
2025-01-10 15:00: 0.1700
2025-01-10 17:00: 0.1550
2025-01-10 19:00: 0.1550
2025-01-10 21:00: 0.1550
2025-01-10 23:00: 0.1550
2025-01-11 01:00: 0.1550
2025-01-11 03:00: 0.1550
2025-01-11 05:00: 0.1300
2025-01-11 07:00: 0.1300
2025-01-11 09:00: 0.1300
2025-01-11 11:00: 0.1300
2025-01-11 13:00: 0.1300
2025-01-11 15:00: 0.1300
2025-01-11 17:00: 0.1300
2025-01-11 19:00: 0.2250
2025-01-11 21:00: 0.1550
2025-01-11 23:00: 0.2300
2025-01-12 01:00: 0.2300
2025-01-12 03:00: 0.2400
2025-01-12 05:00: 0.1700
2025-01-12 07:00: 0.1700
2025-01-12 09:00: 0.1950
2025-01-12 11:00: 0.1950
2025-01-12 13:00: 0.1850
2025-01-12 15:00: 0.1850
2025-01-12 17:00: 0.1850
2025-01-12 19:00: 0.1850
2025-01-12 21:00: 0.1850
2025-01-12 23:00: 0.1850
2025-01-13 01:00: 0.1850
Trade Summary: Total trades: 7, Buy volume: 96.42, Sell volume: 6.31, Average price: 0.6257, Price range: 0.1800 - 0.8100
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike, wash_trading

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 518097
Question: Will 52 Senators vote to confirm RFK as Secretary of HHS?
Volume: 54081.140882
Price History:
2025-01-13 05:00: 0.8150
2025-01-13 07:00: 0.8150
2025-01-13 09:00: 0.8150
2025-01-13 11:00: 0.8150
2025-01-13 13:00: 0.8150
2025-01-13 15:00: 0.8350
2025-01-13 17:00: 0.8350
2025-01-13 19:00: 0.8350
2025-01-13 21:00: 0.8350
2025-01-13 23:00: 0.8350
2025-01-14 01:00: 0.8350
2025-01-14 03:00: 0.8350
2025-01-14 05:00: 0.8350
2025-01-14 07:00: 0.8350
2025-01-14 09:00: 0.8350
2025-01-14 11:00: 0.8350
2025-01-14 13:00: 0.8350
2025-01-14 15:00: 0.8350
2025-01-14 17:00: 0.8350
2025-01-14 19:00: 0.8350
2025-01-14 21:00: 0.8350
2025-01-14 23:00: 0.8350
2025-01-15 01:00: 0.8350
2025-01-15 03:00: 0.8350
2025-01-15 05:00: 0.8350
2025-01-15 07:00: 0.8350
2025-01-15 09:00: 0.8350
2025-01-15 11:00: 0.8350
2025-01-15 13:00: 0.8350
2025-01-15 15:00: 0.8350
Trade Summary: Total trades: 3, Buy volume: 183.69, Sell volume: 40.00, Average price: 0.6133, Price range: 0.1800 - 0.8400
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 518097
Question: Will 52 Senators vote to confirm RFK as Secretary of HHS?
Volume: 54081.140882
Price History:
2025-01-15 20:00: 0.1650
2025-01-15 22:00: 0.1650
2025-01-16 00:00: 0.1650
2025-01-16 02:00: 0.1650
2025-01-16 04:00: 0.1650
2025-01-16 06:00: 0.1650
2025-01-16 08:00: 0.1650
2025-01-16 10:00: 0.1650
2025-01-16 12:00: 0.1650
2025-01-16 14:00: 0.1650
2025-01-16 16:00: 0.1600
2025-01-16 18:00: 0.1600
2025-01-16 20:00: 0.1600
2025-01-16 22:00: 0.1550
2025-01-17 00:00: 0.1600
2025-01-17 02:00: 0.1600
2025-01-17 04:00: 0.1550
2025-01-17 06:00: 0.1550
2025-01-17 08:00: 0.1600
2025-01-17 10:00: 0.1550
2025-01-17 12:00: 0.1550
2025-01-17 14:00: 0.1550
2025-01-17 16:00: 0.1600
2025-01-17 18:00: 0.1550
2025-01-17 20:00: 0.1550
2025-01-17 22:00: 0.1550
2025-01-18 00:00: 0.1550
2025-01-18 02:00: 0.1550
2025-01-18 04:00: 0.1550
2025-01-18 06:00: 0.1550
Trade Summary: Total trades: 6, Buy volume: 356.38, Sell volume: 7.62, Average price: 0.7317, Price range: 0.1600 - 0.8500
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 518097
Question: Will 52 Senators vote to confirm RFK as Secretary of HHS?
Volume: 54081.140882
Price History:
2025-01-18 10:00: 0.8450
2025-01-18 12:00: 0.8450
2025-01-18 14:00: 0.8450
2025-01-18 16:00: 0.8450
2025-01-18 18:00: 0.8450
2025-01-18 20:00: 0.8450
2025-01-18 22:00: 0.8450
2025-01-19 00:00: 0.8450
2025-01-19 02:00: 0.8550
2025-01-19 04:00: 0.8500
2025-01-19 06:00: 0.8500
2025-01-19 08:00: 0.8500
2025-01-19 10:00: 0.8500
2025-01-19 12:00: 0.8500
2025-01-19 14:00: 0.8500
2025-01-19 16:00: 0.8500
2025-01-19 18:00: 0.8500
2025-01-19 20:00: 0.8500
2025-01-19 22:00: 0.8500
2025-01-20 00:00: 0.8500
2025-01-20 02:00: 0.8500
2025-01-20 04:00: 0.8500
2025-01-20 06:00: 0.8500
2025-01-20 08:00: 0.8500
2025-01-20 10:00: 0.8500
2025-01-20 12:00: 0.8500
2025-01-20 14:00: 0.8500
2025-01-20 16:00: 0.8500
2025-01-20 18:00: 0.8650
2025-01-20 20:00: 0.8600
Trade Summary: Total trades: 7, Buy volume: 157.00, Sell volume: 49.66, Average price: 0.5529, Price range: 0.1400 - 0.8600
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 518097
Question: Will 52 Senators vote to confirm RFK as Secretary of HHS?
Volume: 54081.140882
Price History:
2025-01-21 01:00: 0.0750
2025-01-21 03:00: 0.0750
2025-01-21 05:00: 0.0750
2025-01-21 07:00: 0.0745
2025-01-21 09:00: 0.0255
2025-01-21 11:00: 0.0795
2025-01-21 13:00: 0.0800
2025-01-21 15:00: 0.0850
2025-01-21 17:00: 0.0840
2025-01-21 19:00: 0.0840
2025-01-21 21:00: 0.0835
2025-01-21 23:00: 0.1320
2025-01-22 01:00: 0.1385
2025-01-22 03:00: 0.1385
2025-01-22 05:00: 0.1180
2025-01-22 07:00: 0.2140
2025-01-22 09:00: 0.1715
2025-01-22 11:00: 0.1760
2025-01-22 13:00: 0.1455
2025-01-22 15:00: 0.1625
2025-01-22 17:00: 0.1580
2025-01-22 19:00: 0.1590
2025-01-22 21:00: 0.1480
2025-01-22 23:00: 0.1405
2025-01-23 01:00: 0.1530
2025-01-23 03:00: 0.1825
2025-01-23 05:00: 0.1830
2025-01-23 07:00: 0.1830
2025-01-23 09:00: 0.1770
2025-01-23 11:00: 0.1765
Trade Summary: Total trades: 46, Buy volume: 2045.19, Sell volume: 183.07, Average price: 0.4588, Price range: 0.0660 - 0.9350
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 518097
Question: Will 52 Senators vote to confirm RFK as Secretary of HHS?
Volume: 54081.140882
Price History:
2025-01-23 15:00: 0.8225
2025-01-23 17:00: 0.8235
2025-01-23 19:00: 0.8200
2025-01-23 21:00: 0.8225
2025-01-23 23:00: 0.8285
2025-01-24 01:00: 0.8290
2025-01-24 03:00: 0.8245
2025-01-24 05:00: 0.8325
2025-01-24 07:00: 0.8295
2025-01-24 09:00: 0.8295
2025-01-24 11:00: 0.8340
2025-01-24 13:00: 0.8225
2025-01-24 15:00: 0.8310
2025-01-24 17:00: 0.8300
2025-01-24 19:00: 0.8225
2025-01-24 21:00: 0.8220
2025-01-24 23:00: 0.8255
2025-01-25 01:00: 0.8240
2025-01-25 03:00: 0.8255
2025-01-25 05:00: 0.8370
2025-01-25 07:00: 0.8275
2025-01-25 09:00: 0.8250
2025-01-25 11:00: 0.8325
2025-01-25 13:00: 0.8255
2025-01-25 15:00: 0.8380
2025-01-25 17:00: 0.8340
2025-01-25 19:00: 0.8290
2025-01-25 21:00: 0.8300
2025-01-25 23:00: 0.8300
2025-01-26 01:00: 0.8305
Trade Summary: Total trades: 27, Buy volume: 945.72, Sell volume: 554.90, Average price: 0.4160, Price range: 0.1600 - 0.8400
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 518097
Question: Will 52 Senators vote to confirm RFK as Secretary of HHS?
Volume: 54081.140882
Price History:
2025-01-26 06:00: 0.1700
2025-01-26 08:00: 0.1695
2025-01-26 10:00: 0.1700
2025-01-26 12:00: 0.1690
2025-01-26 14:00: 0.1685
2025-01-26 16:00: 0.1510
2025-01-26 18:00: 0.1465
2025-01-26 20:00: 0.1475
2025-01-26 22:00: 0.1465
2025-01-27 00:00: 0.1445
2025-01-27 02:00: 0.1455
2025-01-27 04:00: 0.1455
2025-01-27 06:00: 0.1455
2025-01-27 08:00: 0.1455
2025-01-27 10:00: 0.1455
2025-01-27 12:00: 0.1445
2025-01-27 14:00: 0.1350
2025-01-27 16:00: 0.1430
2025-01-27 18:00: 0.1380
2025-01-27 20:00: 0.1420
2025-01-27 22:00: 0.1340
2025-01-28 00:00: 0.1340
2025-01-28 02:00: 0.1385
2025-01-28 04:00: 0.1455
2025-01-28 06:00: 0.1510
2025-01-28 08:00: 0.1560
2025-01-28 10:00: 0.1485
2025-01-28 12:00: 0.1475
2025-01-28 14:00: 0.1450
2025-01-28 16:00: 0.1205
Trade Summary: Total trades: 47, Buy volume: 1425.91, Sell volume: 63.00, Average price: 0.7539, Price range: 0.1000 - 0.8990
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike, wash_trading

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 518097
Question: Will 52 Senators vote to confirm RFK as Secretary of HHS?
Volume: 54081.140882
Price History:
2025-01-28 20:00: 0.8820
2025-01-28 22:00: 0.8820
2025-01-29 00:00: 0.8825
2025-01-29 02:00: 0.8825
2025-01-29 04:00: 0.8825
2025-01-29 06:00: 0.8825
2025-01-29 08:00: 0.8820
2025-01-29 10:00: 0.8830
2025-01-29 12:00: 0.8980
2025-01-29 14:00: 0.9330
2025-01-29 16:00: 0.9155
2025-01-29 18:00: 0.9105
2025-01-29 20:00: 0.9105
2025-01-29 22:00: 0.8975
2025-01-30 00:00: 0.9030
2025-01-30 02:00: 0.9035
2025-01-30 04:00: 0.9035
2025-01-30 06:00: 0.8990
2025-01-30 08:00: 0.9015
2025-01-30 10:00: 0.9030
2025-01-30 12:00: 0.9035
2025-01-30 14:00: 0.9055
2025-01-30 16:00: 0.9115
2025-01-30 18:00: 0.9140
2025-01-30 20:00: 0.9140
2025-01-30 22:00: 0.9170
2025-01-31 00:00: 0.9235
2025-01-31 02:00: 0.9235
2025-01-31 04:00: 0.9260
2025-01-31 06:00: 0.9265
Trade Summary: Total trades: 43, Buy volume: 1773.99, Sell volume: 769.79, Average price: 0.5950, Price range: 0.0760 - 0.9380
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 518097
Question: Will 52 Senators vote to confirm RFK as Secretary of HHS?
Volume: 54081.140882
Price History:
2025-01-31 11:00: 0.0705
2025-01-31 13:00: 0.0755
2025-01-31 15:00: 0.0755
2025-01-31 17:00: 0.0760
2025-01-31 19:00: 0.0755
2025-01-31 21:00: 0.0755
2025-01-31 23:00: 0.0770
2025-02-01 01:00: 0.0895
2025-02-01 03:00: 0.0855
2025-02-01 05:00: 0.0780
2025-02-01 07:00: 0.0775
2025-02-01 09:00: 0.0825
2025-02-01 11:00: 0.0865
2025-02-01 13:00: 0.0880
2025-02-01 15:00: 0.0905
2025-02-01 17:00: 0.0910
2025-02-01 19:00: 0.0920
2025-02-01 21:00: 0.0960
2025-02-01 23:00: 0.1145
2025-02-02 01:00: 0.1160
2025-02-02 03:00: 0.1200
2025-02-02 05:00: 0.1265
2025-02-02 07:00: 0.1130
2025-02-02 09:00: 0.1155
2025-02-02 11:00: 0.1205
2025-02-02 13:00: 0.1200
2025-02-02 15:00: 0.1225
2025-02-02 17:00: 0.1230
2025-02-02 19:00: 0.1250
2025-02-02 21:00: 0.1260
Trade Summary: Total trades: 49, Buy volume: 5525.63, Sell volume: 383.00, Average price: 0.3251, Price range: 0.0888 - 0.9250
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 518097
Question: Will 52 Senators vote to confirm RFK as Secretary of HHS?
Volume: 54081.140882
Price History:
2025-02-03 01:00: 0.8640
2025-02-03 03:00: 0.8620
2025-02-03 05:00: 0.8660
2025-02-03 07:00: 0.8770
2025-02-03 09:00: 0.8660
2025-02-03 11:00: 0.8715
2025-02-03 13:00: 0.8570
2025-02-03 15:00: 0.8605
2025-02-03 17:00: 0.8570
2025-02-03 19:00: 0.8570
2025-02-03 21:00: 0.8495
2025-02-03 23:00: 0.8610
2025-02-04 01:00: 0.8465
2025-02-04 03:00: 0.8465
2025-02-04 05:00: 0.8450
2025-02-04 07:00: 0.8450
2025-02-04 09:00: 0.5780
2025-02-04 11:00: 0.5620
2025-02-04 13:00: 0.5130
2025-02-04 15:00: 0.5850
2025-02-04 17:00: 0.5950
2025-02-04 19:00: 0.5675
2025-02-04 21:00: 0.5760
2025-02-04 23:00: 0.5705
2025-02-05 01:00: 0.6070
2025-02-05 03:00: 0.5645
2025-02-05 05:00: 0.5645
2025-02-05 07:00: 0.5645
2025-02-05 09:00: 0.5890
2025-02-05 11:00: 0.5960
Trade Summary: Total trades: 45, Buy volume: 800.59, Sell volume: 827.25, Average price: 0.5064, Price range: 0.1400 - 0.8810
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 518097
Question: Will 52 Senators vote to confirm RFK as Secretary of HHS?
Volume: 54081.140882
Price History:
2025-02-05 16:00: 0.4250
2025-02-05 18:00: 0.4035
2025-02-05 20:00: 0.3975
2025-02-05 22:00: 0.4000
2025-02-06 00:00: 0.4080
2025-02-06 02:00: 0.3930
2025-02-06 04:00: 0.4040
2025-02-06 06:00: 0.3995
2025-02-06 08:00: 0.4005
2025-02-06 10:00: 0.4060
2025-02-06 12:00: 0.4025
2025-02-06 14:00: 0.4045
2025-02-06 16:00: 0.4005
2025-02-06 18:00: 0.4005
2025-02-06 20:00: 0.4045
2025-02-06 22:00: 0.3960
2025-02-07 00:00: 0.5570
2025-02-07 02:00: 0.5180
2025-02-07 04:00: 0.6365
2025-02-07 06:00: 0.6360
2025-02-07 08:00: 0.5735
2025-02-07 10:00: 0.6015
2025-02-07 12:00: 0.6275
2025-02-07 14:00: 0.6540
2025-02-07 16:00: 0.6585
2025-02-07 18:00: 0.6190
2025-02-07 20:00: 0.6495
2025-02-07 22:00: 0.5995
2025-02-08 00:00: 0.6000
2025-02-08 02:00: 0.5990
Trade Summary: Total trades: 61, Buy volume: 4271.02, Sell volume: 1066.19, Average price: 0.5771, Price range: 0.3900 - 0.7260
Manipulation Indicators Detected: wash_trading

Output: No


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 518097
Question: Will 52 Senators vote to confirm RFK as Secretary of HHS?
Volume: 54081.140882
Price History:
2025-02-08 06:00: 0.4090
2025-02-08 08:00: 0.3545
2025-02-08 10:00: 0.4000
2025-02-08 12:00: 0.3985
2025-02-08 14:00: 0.3445
2025-02-08 16:00: 0.3055
2025-02-08 18:00: 0.3450
2025-02-08 20:00: 0.3415
2025-02-08 22:00: 0.3365
2025-02-09 00:00: 0.3315
2025-02-09 02:00: 0.3315
2025-02-09 04:00: 0.3300
2025-02-09 06:00: 0.3310
2025-02-09 08:00: 0.3355
2025-02-09 10:00: 0.3340
2025-02-09 12:00: 0.3355
2025-02-09 14:00: 0.3350
2025-02-09 16:00: 0.3315
2025-02-09 18:00: 0.3320
2025-02-09 20:00: 0.3295
2025-02-09 22:00: 0.3295
2025-02-10 00:00: 0.3330
2025-02-10 02:00: 0.3305
2025-02-10 04:00: 0.3325
2025-02-10 06:00: 0.3330
2025-02-10 08:00: 0.3345
2025-02-10 10:00: 0.3370
2025-02-10 12:00: 0.3350
2025-02-10 14:00: 0.3300
2025-02-10 16:00: 0.3265
Trade Summary: Total trades: 56, Buy volume: 4655.52, Sell volume: 1841.82, Average price: 0.5717, Price range: 0.2980 - 0.7260
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, wash_trading

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 518097
Question: Will 52 Senators vote to confirm RFK as Secretary of HHS?
Volume: 54081.140882
Price History:
2025-02-10 21:00: 0.7405
2025-02-10 23:00: 0.7730
2025-02-11 01:00: 0.7725
2025-02-11 03:00: 0.7760
2025-02-11 05:00: 0.7755
2025-02-11 07:00: 0.7785
2025-02-11 09:00: 0.7950
2025-02-11 11:00: 0.8000
2025-02-11 13:00: 0.7985
2025-02-11 15:00: 0.7980
2025-02-11 17:00: 0.7750
2025-02-11 19:00: 0.7750
2025-02-11 21:00: 0.7665
2025-02-11 23:00: 0.7615
2025-02-12 01:00: 0.7615
2025-02-12 03:00: 0.7740
2025-02-12 05:00: 0.7725
2025-02-12 07:00: 0.7705
2025-02-12 09:00: 0.7695
2025-02-12 11:00: 0.7885
2025-02-12 13:00: 0.8765
2025-02-12 15:00: 0.7370
2025-02-12 17:00: 0.7980
2025-02-12 19:00: 0.7930
2025-02-12 21:00: 0.8285
2025-02-12 23:00: 0.8505
2025-02-13 01:00: 0.8785
2025-02-13 03:00: 0.8780
2025-02-13 05:00: 0.8575
2025-02-13 07:00: 0.8490
Trade Summary: Total trades: 317, Buy volume: 16397.89, Sell volume: 4160.35, Average price: 0.6510, Price range: 0.1070 - 0.9478
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike, wash_trading

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 515874
Question: Will the AfD win less than 10% of the vote in the German election?
Volume: 12752500.374611
Price History:
2024-12-18 11:00: 0.0800
2024-12-18 16:00: 0.0150
2024-12-18 21:00: 0.0165
2024-12-19 02:00: 0.0165
2024-12-19 07:00: 0.0160
2024-12-19 12:00: 0.0170
2024-12-19 17:00: 0.0110
2024-12-19 22:00: 0.0120
2024-12-20 03:00: 0.0115
2024-12-20 08:00: 0.0100
2024-12-20 13:00: 0.0090
2024-12-20 18:00: 0.0060
2024-12-20 23:00: 0.0065
2024-12-21 04:00: 0.0060
2024-12-21 09:00: 0.0060
2024-12-21 14:00: 0.0060
2024-12-21 19:00: 0.0050
2024-12-22 00:00: 0.0050
2024-12-22 05:00: 0.0035
2024-12-22 10:00: 0.0050
2024-12-22 15:00: 0.0040
2024-12-22 20:00: 0.0040
2024-12-23 01:00: 0.0035
2024-12-23 06:00: 0.0035
2024-12-23 11:00: 0.0035
2024-12-23 16:00: 0.0040
2024-12-23 21:00: 0.0040
2024-12-24 02:00: 0.0040
2024-12-24 07:00: 0.0040
2024-12-24 12:00: 0.0055
Trade Summary: No trades available
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 515874
Question: Will the AfD win less than 10% of the vote in the German election?
Volume: 12752500.374611
Price History:
2024-12-25 01:00: 0.9945
2024-12-25 06:00: 0.9945
2024-12-25 11:00: 0.9950
2024-12-25 16:00: 0.9950
2024-12-25 21:00: 0.9955
2024-12-26 02:00: 0.9950
2024-12-26 07:00: 0.9950
2024-12-26 12:00: 0.9945
2024-12-26 17:00: 0.9945
2024-12-26 22:00: 0.9945
2024-12-27 03:00: 0.9945
2024-12-27 08:00: 0.9935
2024-12-27 13:00: 0.9945
2024-12-27 18:00: 0.9940
2024-12-27 23:00: 0.9945
2024-12-28 04:00: 0.9945
2024-12-28 09:00: 0.9955
2024-12-28 14:00: 0.9950
2024-12-28 19:00: 0.9945
2024-12-29 00:00: 0.9950
2024-12-29 05:00: 0.9945
2024-12-29 10:00: 0.9940
2024-12-29 15:00: 0.9940
2024-12-29 20:00: 0.9940
2024-12-30 01:00: 0.9940
2024-12-30 06:00: 0.9940
2024-12-30 11:00: 0.9945
2024-12-30 16:00: 0.9945
2024-12-30 21:00: 0.9950
2024-12-31 02:00: 0.9950
Trade Summary: No trades available
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 515874
Question: Will the AfD win less than 10% of the vote in the German election?
Volume: 12752500.374611
Price History:
2024-12-31 16:00: 0.0045
2024-12-31 21:00: 0.0045
2025-01-01 02:00: 0.0045
2025-01-01 07:00: 0.0045
2025-01-01 12:00: 0.0045
2025-01-01 17:00: 0.0045
2025-01-01 22:00: 0.0045
2025-01-02 03:00: 0.0045
2025-01-02 08:00: 0.0045
2025-01-02 13:00: 0.0045
2025-01-02 18:00: 0.0045
2025-01-02 23:00: 0.0045
2025-01-03 04:00: 0.0045
2025-01-03 09:00: 0.0045
2025-01-03 14:00: 0.0035
2025-01-03 19:00: 0.0035
2025-01-04 00:00: 0.0035
2025-01-04 05:00: 0.0035
2025-01-04 10:00: 0.0035
2025-01-04 15:00: 0.0030
2025-01-04 20:00: 0.0035
2025-01-05 01:00: 0.0035
2025-01-05 06:00: 0.0035
2025-01-05 11:00: 0.0035
2025-01-05 16:00: 0.0035
2025-01-05 21:00: 0.0035
2025-01-06 02:00: 0.0035
2025-01-06 07:00: 0.0035
2025-01-06 12:00: 0.0030
2025-01-06 17:00: 0.0025
Trade Summary: No trades available
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 515874
Question: Will the AfD win less than 10% of the vote in the German election?
Volume: 12752500.374611
Price History:
2025-01-07 06:00: 0.9965
2025-01-07 11:00: 0.9975
2025-01-07 16:00: 0.9975
2025-01-07 21:00: 0.9975
2025-01-08 02:00: 0.9975
2025-01-08 07:00: 0.9975
2025-01-08 12:00: 0.9975
2025-01-08 17:00: 0.9975
2025-01-08 22:00: 0.9975
2025-01-09 03:00: 0.9975
2025-01-09 08:00: 0.9975
2025-01-09 13:00: 0.9975
2025-01-09 18:00: 0.9975
2025-01-09 23:00: 0.9975
2025-01-10 04:00: 0.9975
2025-01-10 09:00: 0.9975
2025-01-10 14:00: 0.9975
2025-01-10 19:00: 0.9975
2025-01-11 00:00: 0.9975
2025-01-11 05:00: 0.9975
2025-01-11 10:00: 0.9975
2025-01-11 15:00: 0.9975
2025-01-11 20:00: 0.9975
2025-01-12 01:00: 0.9975
2025-01-12 06:00: 0.9975
2025-01-12 11:00: 0.9975
2025-01-12 16:00: 0.9975
2025-01-12 21:00: 0.9975
2025-01-13 02:00: 0.9975
2025-01-13 07:00: 0.9975
Trade Summary: No trades available
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 515874
Question: Will the AfD win less than 10% of the vote in the German election?
Volume: 12752500.374611
Price History:
2025-01-13 21:00: 0.0025
2025-01-14 02:00: 0.0025
2025-01-14 07:00: 0.0025
2025-01-14 12:00: 0.0025
2025-01-14 17:00: 0.0025
2025-01-14 22:00: 0.0025
2025-01-15 03:00: 0.0025
2025-01-15 08:00: 0.0025
2025-01-15 13:00: 0.0025
2025-01-15 18:00: 0.0035
2025-01-15 23:00: 0.0045
2025-01-16 04:00: 0.0055
2025-01-16 09:00: 0.0075
2025-01-16 14:00: 0.0070
2025-01-16 19:00: 0.0065
2025-01-17 00:00: 0.0065
2025-01-17 05:00: 0.0070
2025-01-17 10:00: 0.0045
2025-01-17 15:00: 0.0045
2025-01-17 20:00: 0.0045
2025-01-18 01:00: 0.0045
2025-01-18 06:00: 0.0045
2025-01-18 11:00: 0.0045
2025-01-18 16:00: 0.0045
2025-01-18 21:00: 0.0045
2025-01-19 02:00: 0.0045
2025-01-19 07:00: 0.0045
2025-01-19 12:00: 0.0045
2025-01-19 17:00: 0.0045
2025-01-19 22:00: 0.0045
Trade Summary: No trades available
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 515874
Question: Will the AfD win less than 10% of the vote in the German election?
Volume: 12752500.374611
Price History:
2025-01-20 11:00: 0.9945
2025-01-20 16:00: 0.9945
2025-01-20 21:00: 0.9945
2025-01-21 02:00: 0.9945
2025-01-21 07:00: 0.9945
2025-01-21 12:00: 0.9945
2025-01-21 17:00: 0.9945
2025-01-21 22:00: 0.9945
2025-01-22 03:00: 0.9945
2025-01-22 08:00: 0.9945
2025-01-22 13:00: 0.9945
2025-01-22 18:00: 0.9945
2025-01-22 23:00: 0.9945
2025-01-23 04:00: 0.9945
2025-01-23 09:00: 0.9945
2025-01-23 14:00: 0.9945
2025-01-23 19:00: 0.9945
2025-01-24 00:00: 0.9945
2025-01-24 05:00: 0.9945
2025-01-24 10:00: 0.9945
2025-01-24 15:00: 0.9945
2025-01-24 20:00: 0.9945
2025-01-25 01:00: 0.9945
2025-01-25 06:00: 0.9945
2025-01-25 11:00: 0.9945
2025-01-25 16:00: 0.9945
2025-01-25 21:00: 0.9945
2025-01-26 02:00: 0.9945
2025-01-26 07:00: 0.9945
2025-01-26 12:00: 0.9945
Trade Summary: No trades available
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 515874
Question: Will the AfD win less than 10% of the vote in the German election?
Volume: 12752500.374611
Price History:
2025-01-27 02:00: 0.0055
2025-01-27 07:00: 0.0055
2025-01-27 12:00: 0.0045
2025-01-27 17:00: 0.0035
2025-01-27 22:00: 0.0045
2025-01-28 03:00: 0.0045
2025-01-28 08:00: 0.0045
2025-01-28 13:00: 0.0045
2025-01-28 18:00: 0.0045
2025-01-28 23:00: 0.0045
2025-01-29 04:00: 0.0045
2025-01-29 09:00: 0.0045
2025-01-29 14:00: 0.0045
2025-01-29 19:00: 0.0045
2025-01-30 00:00: 0.0045
2025-01-30 05:00: 0.0045
2025-01-30 10:00: 0.0045
2025-01-30 15:00: 0.0045
2025-01-30 20:00: 0.0045
2025-01-31 01:00: 0.0045
2025-01-31 06:00: 0.0035
2025-01-31 11:00: 0.0045
2025-01-31 16:00: 0.0045
2025-01-31 21:00: 0.0045
2025-02-01 02:00: 0.0045
2025-02-01 07:00: 0.0045
2025-02-01 12:00: 0.0045
2025-02-01 17:00: 0.0045
2025-02-01 22:00: 0.0035
2025-02-02 03:00: 0.0035
Trade Summary: No trades available
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 515874
Question: Will the AfD win less than 10% of the vote in the German election?
Volume: 12752500.374611
Price History:
2025-02-02 16:00: 0.9965
2025-02-02 21:00: 0.9965
2025-02-03 02:00: 0.9965
2025-02-03 07:00: 0.9965
2025-02-03 12:00: 0.9965
2025-02-03 17:00: 0.9965
2025-02-03 22:00: 0.9965
2025-02-04 03:00: 0.9965
2025-02-04 08:00: 0.9965
2025-02-04 13:00: 0.9965
2025-02-04 18:00: 0.9965
2025-02-04 23:00: 0.9965
2025-02-05 04:00: 0.9975
2025-02-05 09:00: 0.9975
2025-02-05 14:00: 0.9975
2025-02-05 19:00: 0.9975
2025-02-06 00:00: 0.9975
2025-02-06 05:00: 0.9975
2025-02-06 10:00: 0.9975
2025-02-06 15:00: 0.9975
2025-02-06 20:00: 0.9975
2025-02-07 01:00: 0.9975
2025-02-07 06:00: 0.9975
2025-02-07 11:00: 0.9975
2025-02-07 16:00: 0.9975
2025-02-07 21:00: 0.9975
2025-02-08 02:00: 0.9975
2025-02-08 07:00: 0.9975
2025-02-08 12:00: 0.9975
2025-02-08 17:00: 0.9975
Trade Summary: No trades available
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 515874
Question: Will the AfD win less than 10% of the vote in the German election?
Volume: 12752500.374611
Price History:
2025-02-09 07:00: 0.0025
2025-02-09 12:00: 0.0015
2025-02-09 17:00: 0.0015
2025-02-09 22:00: 0.0015
2025-02-10 03:00: 0.0015
2025-02-10 08:00: 0.0015
2025-02-10 13:00: 0.0015
2025-02-10 18:00: 0.0015
2025-02-10 23:00: 0.0015
2025-02-11 04:00: 0.0015
2025-02-11 09:00: 0.0015
2025-02-11 14:00: 0.0015
2025-02-11 19:00: 0.0015
2025-02-12 00:00: 0.0015
2025-02-12 05:00: 0.0015
2025-02-12 10:00: 0.0015
2025-02-12 15:00: 0.0015
2025-02-12 20:00: 0.0015
2025-02-13 01:00: 0.0015
2025-02-13 06:00: 0.0015
2025-02-13 11:00: 0.0015
2025-02-13 16:00: 0.0015
2025-02-13 21:00: 0.0015
2025-02-14 02:00: 0.0015
2025-02-14 07:00: 0.0015
2025-02-14 12:00: 0.0015
2025-02-14 17:00: 0.0015
2025-02-14 22:00: 0.0015
2025-02-15 03:00: 0.0015
2025-02-15 08:00: 0.0015
Trade Summary: No trades available
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 515874
Question: Will the AfD win less than 10% of the vote in the German election?
Volume: 12752500.374611
Price History:
2025-02-15 21:00: 0.9985
2025-02-16 02:00: 0.9985
2025-02-16 07:00: 0.9985
2025-02-16 12:00: 0.9985
2025-02-16 17:00: 0.9985
2025-02-16 22:00: 0.9985
2025-02-17 03:00: 0.9985
2025-02-17 08:00: 0.9985
2025-02-17 13:00: 0.9985
2025-02-17 18:00: 0.9995
2025-02-17 23:00: 0.9995
2025-02-18 04:00: 0.9995
2025-02-18 09:00: 0.9990
2025-02-18 14:00: 0.9995
2025-02-18 19:00: 0.9990
2025-02-19 00:00: 0.9995
2025-02-19 05:00: 0.9990
2025-02-19 10:00: 0.9995
2025-02-19 15:00: 0.9995
2025-02-19 20:00: 0.9995
2025-02-20 01:00: 0.9995
2025-02-20 06:00: 0.9995
2025-02-20 11:00: 0.9995
2025-02-20 16:00: 0.9995
2025-02-20 21:00: 0.9995
2025-02-21 02:00: 0.9995
2025-02-21 07:00: 0.9995
2025-02-21 12:00: 0.9995
2025-02-21 17:00: 0.9995
2025-02-21 22:00: 0.9995
Trade Summary: No trades available
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 515874
Question: Will the AfD win less than 10% of the vote in the German election?
Volume: 12752500.374611
Price History:
2025-02-22 12:00: 0.0005
2025-02-22 17:00: 0.0015
2025-02-22 22:00: 0.0010
2025-02-23 03:00: 0.0005
2025-02-23 08:00: 0.0005
2025-02-23 13:00: 0.0005
2025-02-23 18:00: 0.0005
2025-02-23 23:00: 0.0005
2025-02-24 04:00: 0.0005
2025-02-24 09:00: 0.0005
2025-02-24 14:00: 0.0005
2025-02-24 19:00: 0.0005
2025-02-25 00:00: 0.0005
2025-02-25 05:00: 0.0005
2025-02-25 10:00: 0.0005
2025-02-25 15:00: 0.0005
2025-02-25 20:00: 0.0005
2025-02-26 01:00: 0.0005
2025-02-26 06:00: 0.0005
2025-02-26 11:00: 0.0015
2025-02-26 16:00: 0.0015
2025-02-26 21:00: 0.0005
2025-02-27 02:00: 0.0005
2025-02-27 07:00: 0.0005
2025-02-27 12:00: 0.0005
2025-02-27 17:00: 0.0005
2025-02-27 22:00: 0.0015
2025-02-28 03:00: 0.0015
2025-02-28 08:00: 0.0010
2025-02-28 13:00: 0.0010
Trade Summary: No trades available
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 515874
Question: Will the AfD win less than 10% of the vote in the German election?
Volume: 12752500.374611
Price History:
2025-03-01 02:00: 0.9995
2025-03-01 07:00: 0.9995
2025-03-01 12:00: 0.9995
2025-03-01 17:00: 0.9995
2025-03-01 22:00: 0.9995
2025-03-02 03:00: 0.9995
2025-03-02 08:00: 0.9995
2025-03-02 13:00: 0.9995
2025-03-02 18:00: 0.9995
2025-03-02 23:00: 0.9995
2025-03-03 04:00: 0.9995
2025-03-03 09:00: 0.9995
2025-03-03 14:00: 0.9995
2025-03-03 19:00: 0.9995
2025-03-04 00:00: 0.9995
2025-03-04 05:00: 0.9995
2025-03-04 10:00: 0.9995
2025-03-04 15:00: 0.9995
2025-03-04 20:00: 0.9995
2025-03-05 01:00: 0.9995
2025-03-05 06:00: 0.9995
2025-03-05 11:00: 0.9995
2025-03-05 16:00: 0.9985
2025-03-05 21:00: 0.9985
2025-03-06 02:00: 0.9985
2025-03-06 07:00: 0.9995
2025-03-06 12:00: 0.9995
2025-03-06 17:00: 0.9995
2025-03-06 22:00: 0.9995
2025-03-07 03:00: 0.9995
Trade Summary: No trades available
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 515874
Question: Will the AfD win less than 10% of the vote in the German election?
Volume: 12752500.374611
Price History:
2025-03-07 17:00: 0.0005
2025-03-07 22:00: 0.0005
2025-03-08 03:00: 0.0005
2025-03-08 08:00: 0.0005
2025-03-08 13:00: 0.0005
2025-03-08 18:00: 0.0005
2025-03-08 23:00: 0.0005
2025-03-09 05:00: 0.0005
2025-03-09 10:00: 0.0005
2025-03-09 15:00: 0.0005
2025-03-09 20:00: 0.0005
2025-03-10 01:00: 0.0005
2025-03-10 06:00: 0.0005
2025-03-10 11:00: 0.0005
2025-03-10 16:00: 0.0005
2025-03-10 21:00: 0.0005
2025-03-11 02:00: 0.0005
2025-03-11 07:00: 0.0005
2025-03-11 12:00: 0.0005
2025-03-11 17:00: 0.0005
2025-03-11 22:00: 0.0005
2025-03-12 03:00: 0.0035
2025-03-12 08:00: 0.0005
2025-03-12 13:00: 0.0005
2025-03-12 18:00: 0.0005
2025-03-12 23:00: 0.0005
2025-03-13 04:00: 0.0020
2025-03-13 09:00: 0.0005
2025-03-13 14:00: 0.0005
2025-03-13 19:00: 0.0005
Trade Summary: No trades available
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 515876
Question: Will the AfD win 10-15% of the vote in the German election?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 4653655.119749
Price History:
2024-12-18 11:00: 0.2250
2024-12-18 14:00: 0.1150
2024-12-18 17:00: 0.1100
2024-12-18 20:00: 0.1100
2024-12-18 23:00: 0.1100
2024-12-19 02:00: 0.1100
2024-12-19 05:00: 0.1100
2024-12-19 08:00: 0.1100
2024-12-19 11:00: 0.1100
2024-12-19 14:00: 0.1150
2024-12-19 17:00: 0.1100
2024-12-19 20:00: 0.1100
2024-12-19 23:00: 0.1100
2024-12-20 02:00: 0.1100
2024-12-20 05:00: 0.1100
2024-12-20 08:00: 0.1000
2024-12-20 11:00: 0.0800
2024-12-20 14:00: 0.0700
2024-12-20 17:00: 0.0295
2024-12-20 20:00: 0.0310
2024-12-20 23:00: 0.0280
2024-12-21 02:00: 0.0290
2024-12-21 05:00: 0.0270
2024-12-21 08:00: 0.0260
2024-12-21 11:00: 0.0270
2024-12-21 14:00: 0.0275
2024-12-21 17:00: 0.0260
2024-12-21 20:00: 0.0265
2024-12-21 23:00: 0.0265
2024-12-22 02:00: 0.0265
2024-12-22 05:00: 0.0280
2024-12-22 08:00: 0.0280
2024-12-22 11:00: 0.0275
2024-12-22 14:00: 0.0380
2024-12-22 17:00: 0.0295
2024-12-22 20:00: 0.0275
2024-12-22 23:00: 0.0270
2024-12-23 02:00: 0.0270
2024-12-23 05:00: 0.0270
2024-12-23 08:00: 0.0265
2024-12-23 11:00: 0.0265
2024-12-23 14:00: 0.0265
2024-12-23 17:00: 0.0265
2024-12-23 20:00: 0.0265
2024-12-23 23:00: 0.0265
2024-12-24 02:00: 0.0265
2024-12-24 05:00: 0.0265
2024-12-24 08:00: 0.0265
2024-12-24 11:00: 0.0340
2024-12-24 14:00: 0.0355
Trade Summary: No trades available

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 515876
Question: Will the AfD win 10-15% of the vote in the German election?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 4653655.119749
Price History:
2024-12-25 01:00: 0.9625
2024-12-25 04:00: 0.9620
2024-12-25 07:00: 0.9615
2024-12-25 10:00: 0.9635
2024-12-25 13:00: 0.9565
2024-12-25 16:00: 0.9590
2024-12-25 19:00: 0.9620
2024-12-25 22:00: 0.9595
2024-12-26 01:00: 0.9625
2024-12-26 04:00: 0.9610
2024-12-26 07:00: 0.9625
2024-12-26 10:00: 0.9610
2024-12-26 13:00: 0.9600
2024-12-26 16:00: 0.9620
2024-12-26 19:00: 0.9595
2024-12-26 22:00: 0.9585
2024-12-27 01:00: 0.9585
2024-12-27 04:00: 0.9595
2024-12-27 07:00: 0.9600
2024-12-27 10:00: 0.9575
2024-12-27 13:00: 0.9575
2024-12-27 16:00: 0.9575
2024-12-27 19:00: 0.9575
2024-12-27 22:00: 0.9575
2024-12-28 01:00: 0.9575
2024-12-28 04:00: 0.9575
2024-12-28 07:00: 0.9575
2024-12-28 10:00: 0.9565
2024-12-28 13:00: 0.9620
2024-12-28 16:00: 0.9615
2024-12-28 19:00: 0.9615
2024-12-28 22:00: 0.9615
2024-12-29 01:00: 0.9610
2024-12-29 04:00: 0.9610
2024-12-29 07:00: 0.9610
2024-12-29 10:00: 0.9645
2024-12-29 13:00: 0.9625
2024-12-29 16:00: 0.9635
2024-12-29 19:00: 0.9630
2024-12-29 22:00: 0.9625
2024-12-30 01:00: 0.9630
2024-12-30 04:00: 0.9630
2024-12-30 07:00: 0.9645
2024-12-30 10:00: 0.9625
2024-12-30 13:00: 0.9630
2024-12-30 16:00: 0.9630
2024-12-30 19:00: 0.9685
2024-12-30 22:00: 0.9710
2024-12-31 01:00: 0.9710
2024-12-31 04:00: 0.9725
Trade Summary: No trades available

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 515876
Question: Will the AfD win 10-15% of the vote in the German election?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 4653655.119749
Price History:
2024-12-31 16:00: 0.0300
2024-12-31 19:00: 0.0300
2024-12-31 22:00: 0.0300
2025-01-01 01:00: 0.0295
2025-01-01 04:00: 0.0310
2025-01-01 07:00: 0.0310
2025-01-01 10:00: 0.0305
2025-01-01 13:00: 0.0275
2025-01-01 16:00: 0.0315
2025-01-01 19:00: 0.0310
2025-01-01 22:00: 0.0310
2025-01-02 01:00: 0.0305
2025-01-02 04:00: 0.0305
2025-01-02 07:00: 0.0315
2025-01-02 10:00: 0.0315
2025-01-02 13:00: 0.0315
2025-01-02 16:00: 0.0310
2025-01-02 19:00: 0.0310
2025-01-02 22:00: 0.0310
2025-01-03 01:00: 0.0310
2025-01-03 04:00: 0.0270
2025-01-03 07:00: 0.0265
2025-01-03 10:00: 0.0255
2025-01-03 13:00: 0.0235
2025-01-03 16:00: 0.0255
2025-01-03 19:00: 0.0240
2025-01-03 22:00: 0.0245
2025-01-04 01:00: 0.0260
2025-01-04 04:00: 0.0255
2025-01-04 07:00: 0.0215
2025-01-04 10:00: 0.0200
2025-01-04 13:00: 0.0210
2025-01-04 16:00: 0.0205
2025-01-04 19:00: 0.0245
2025-01-04 22:00: 0.0230
2025-01-05 01:00: 0.0205
2025-01-05 04:00: 0.0205
2025-01-05 07:00: 0.0210
2025-01-05 10:00: 0.0245
2025-01-05 13:00: 0.0245
2025-01-05 16:00: 0.0255
2025-01-05 19:00: 0.0270
2025-01-05 22:00: 0.0265
2025-01-06 01:00: 0.0265
2025-01-06 04:00: 0.0265
2025-01-06 07:00: 0.0250
2025-01-06 10:00: 0.0215
2025-01-06 13:00: 0.0245
2025-01-06 16:00: 0.0245
2025-01-06 19:00: 0.0240
Trade Summary: No trades available

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 515876
Question: Will the AfD win 10-15% of the vote in the German election?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 4653655.119749
Price History:
2025-01-07 06:00: 0.9790
2025-01-07 09:00: 0.9795
2025-01-07 12:00: 0.9795
2025-01-07 15:00: 0.9795
2025-01-07 18:00: 0.9820
2025-01-07 21:00: 0.9835
2025-01-08 00:00: 0.9845
2025-01-08 03:00: 0.9835
2025-01-08 06:00: 0.9850
2025-01-08 09:00: 0.9855
2025-01-08 12:00: 0.9845
2025-01-08 15:00: 0.9845
2025-01-08 18:00: 0.9845
2025-01-08 21:00: 0.9855
2025-01-09 00:00: 0.9855
2025-01-09 03:00: 0.9855
2025-01-09 06:00: 0.9860
2025-01-09 09:00: 0.9855
2025-01-09 12:00: 0.9845
2025-01-09 15:00: 0.9835
2025-01-09 18:00: 0.9870
2025-01-09 21:00: 0.9865
2025-01-10 00:00: 0.9875
2025-01-10 03:00: 0.9875
2025-01-10 06:00: 0.9875
2025-01-10 09:00: 0.9870
2025-01-10 12:00: 0.9865
2025-01-10 15:00: 0.9880
2025-01-10 18:00: 0.9895
2025-01-10 21:00: 0.9900
2025-01-11 00:00: 0.9895
2025-01-11 03:00: 0.9890
2025-01-11 06:00: 0.9895
2025-01-11 09:00: 0.9915
2025-01-11 12:00: 0.9895
2025-01-11 15:00: 0.9895
2025-01-11 18:00: 0.9900
2025-01-11 21:00: 0.9920
2025-01-12 00:00: 0.9920
2025-01-12 03:00: 0.9915
2025-01-12 06:00: 0.9915
2025-01-12 09:00: 0.9895
2025-01-12 12:00: 0.9905
2025-01-12 15:00: 0.9915
2025-01-12 18:00: 0.9920
2025-01-12 21:00: 0.9920
2025-01-13 00:00: 0.9920
2025-01-13 03:00: 0.9920
2025-01-13 06:00: 0.9920
2025-01-13 09:00: 0.9930
Trade Summary: No trades available

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 515876
Question: Will the AfD win 10-15% of the vote in the German election?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 4653655.119749
Price History:
2025-01-13 21:00: 0.0065
2025-01-14 00:00: 0.0065
2025-01-14 03:00: 0.0070
2025-01-14 06:00: 0.0075
2025-01-14 09:00: 0.0065
2025-01-14 12:00: 0.0065
2025-01-14 15:00: 0.0065
2025-01-14 18:00: 0.0065
2025-01-14 21:00: 0.0065
2025-01-15 00:00: 0.0070
2025-01-15 03:00: 0.0070
2025-01-15 06:00: 0.0080
2025-01-15 09:00: 0.0075
2025-01-15 12:00: 0.0075
2025-01-15 15:00: 0.0095
2025-01-15 18:00: 0.0095
2025-01-15 21:00: 0.0095
2025-01-16 00:00: 0.0095
2025-01-16 03:00: 0.0095
2025-01-16 06:00: 0.0135
2025-01-16 09:00: 0.0135
2025-01-16 12:00: 0.0135
2025-01-16 15:00: 0.0135
2025-01-16 18:00: 0.0150
2025-01-16 21:00: 0.0140
2025-01-17 00:00: 0.0145
2025-01-17 03:00: 0.0150
2025-01-17 06:00: 0.0150
2025-01-17 09:00: 0.0165
2025-01-17 12:00: 0.0185
2025-01-17 15:00: 0.0170
2025-01-17 18:00: 0.0170
2025-01-17 21:00: 0.0190
2025-01-18 00:00: 0.0210
2025-01-18 03:00: 0.0195
2025-01-18 06:00: 0.0185
2025-01-18 09:00: 0.0165
2025-01-18 12:00: 0.0135
2025-01-18 15:00: 0.0175
2025-01-18 18:00: 0.0155
2025-01-18 21:00: 0.0175
2025-01-19 00:00: 0.0175
2025-01-19 03:00: 0.0175
2025-01-19 06:00: 0.0170
2025-01-19 09:00: 0.0170
2025-01-19 12:00: 0.0155
2025-01-19 15:00: 0.0165
2025-01-19 18:00: 0.0160
2025-01-19 21:00: 0.0160
2025-01-20 00:00: 0.0160
Trade Summary: No trades available

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 515876
Question: Will the AfD win 10-15% of the vote in the German election?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 4653655.119749
Price History:
2025-01-20 11:00: 0.9845
2025-01-20 14:00: 0.9765
2025-01-20 17:00: 0.9835
2025-01-20 20:00: 0.9815
2025-01-20 23:00: 0.9820
2025-01-21 02:00: 0.9780
2025-01-21 05:00: 0.9820
2025-01-21 08:00: 0.9820
2025-01-21 11:00: 0.9820
2025-01-21 14:00: 0.9820
2025-01-21 17:00: 0.9830
2025-01-21 20:00: 0.9810
2025-01-21 23:00: 0.9810
2025-01-22 02:00: 0.9815
2025-01-22 05:00: 0.9820
2025-01-22 08:00: 0.9820
2025-01-22 11:00: 0.9825
2025-01-22 14:00: 0.9855
2025-01-22 17:00: 0.9820
2025-01-22 20:00: 0.9790
2025-01-22 23:00: 0.9790
2025-01-23 02:00: 0.9790
2025-01-23 05:00: 0.9790
2025-01-23 08:00: 0.9800
2025-01-23 11:00: 0.9825
2025-01-23 14:00: 0.9810
2025-01-23 17:00: 0.9820
2025-01-23 20:00: 0.9825
2025-01-23 23:00: 0.9825
2025-01-24 02:00: 0.9825
2025-01-24 05:00: 0.9835
2025-01-24 08:00: 0.9830
2025-01-24 11:00: 0.9830
2025-01-24 14:00: 0.9830
2025-01-24 17:00: 0.9820
2025-01-24 20:00: 0.9815
2025-01-24 23:00: 0.9815
2025-01-25 02:00: 0.9815
2025-01-25 05:00: 0.9815
2025-01-25 08:00: 0.9820
2025-01-25 11:00: 0.9830
2025-01-25 14:00: 0.9830
2025-01-25 17:00: 0.9830
2025-01-25 20:00: 0.9830
2025-01-25 23:00: 0.9805
2025-01-26 02:00: 0.9805
2025-01-26 05:00: 0.9805
2025-01-26 08:00: 0.9815
2025-01-26 11:00: 0.9810
2025-01-26 14:00: 0.9830
Trade Summary: No trades available

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 515876
Question: Will the AfD win 10-15% of the vote in the German election?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 4653655.119749
Price History:
2025-01-27 02:00: 0.0160
2025-01-27 05:00: 0.0160
2025-01-27 08:00: 0.0170
2025-01-27 11:00: 0.0170
2025-01-27 14:00: 0.0160
2025-01-27 17:00: 0.0145
2025-01-27 20:00: 0.0145
2025-01-27 23:00: 0.0145
2025-01-28 02:00: 0.0145
2025-01-28 05:00: 0.0170
2025-01-28 08:00: 0.0145
2025-01-28 11:00: 0.0135
2025-01-28 14:00: 0.0125
2025-01-28 17:00: 0.0115
2025-01-28 20:00: 0.0140
2025-01-28 23:00: 0.0125
2025-01-29 02:00: 0.0110
2025-01-29 05:00: 0.0090
2025-01-29 08:00: 0.0105
2025-01-29 11:00: 0.0105
2025-01-29 14:00: 0.0100
2025-01-29 17:00: 0.0100
2025-01-29 20:00: 0.0110
2025-01-29 23:00: 0.0110
2025-01-30 02:00: 0.0100
2025-01-30 05:00: 0.0115
2025-01-30 08:00: 0.0110
2025-01-30 11:00: 0.0105
2025-01-30 14:00: 0.0110
2025-01-30 17:00: 0.0110
2025-01-30 20:00: 0.0105
2025-01-30 23:00: 0.0105
2025-01-31 02:00: 0.0105
2025-01-31 05:00: 0.0100
2025-01-31 08:00: 0.0105
2025-01-31 11:00: 0.0105
2025-01-31 14:00: 0.0095
2025-01-31 17:00: 0.0100
2025-01-31 20:00: 0.0100
2025-01-31 23:00: 0.0085
2025-02-01 02:00: 0.0085
2025-02-01 05:00: 0.0075
2025-02-01 08:00: 0.0055
2025-02-01 11:00: 0.0065
2025-02-01 14:00: 0.0075
2025-02-01 17:00: 0.0055
2025-02-01 20:00: 0.0070
2025-02-01 23:00: 0.0065
2025-02-02 02:00: 0.0065
2025-02-02 05:00: 0.0055
Trade Summary: No trades available

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 515876
Question: Will the AfD win 10-15% of the vote in the German election?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 4653655.119749
Price History:
2025-02-02 16:00: 0.9925
2025-02-02 19:00: 0.9935
2025-02-02 22:00: 0.9935
2025-02-03 01:00: 0.9935
2025-02-03 04:00: 0.9940
2025-02-03 07:00: 0.9925
2025-02-03 10:00: 0.9920
2025-02-03 13:00: 0.9925
2025-02-03 16:00: 0.9920
2025-02-03 19:00: 0.9925
2025-02-03 22:00: 0.9925
2025-02-04 01:00: 0.9925
2025-02-04 04:00: 0.9920
2025-02-04 07:00: 0.9945
2025-02-04 10:00: 0.9945
2025-02-04 13:00: 0.9930
2025-02-04 16:00: 0.9930
2025-02-04 19:00: 0.9930
2025-02-04 22:00: 0.9935
2025-02-05 01:00: 0.9935
2025-02-05 04:00: 0.9930
2025-02-05 07:00: 0.9930
2025-02-05 10:00: 0.9930
2025-02-05 13:00: 0.9920
2025-02-05 16:00: 0.9920
2025-02-05 19:00: 0.9915
2025-02-05 22:00: 0.9925
2025-02-06 01:00: 0.9935
2025-02-06 04:00: 0.9935
2025-02-06 07:00: 0.9930
2025-02-06 10:00: 0.9940
2025-02-06 13:00: 0.9945
2025-02-06 16:00: 0.9945
2025-02-06 19:00: 0.9945
2025-02-06 22:00: 0.9945
2025-02-07 01:00: 0.9945
2025-02-07 04:00: 0.9950
2025-02-07 07:00: 0.9955
2025-02-07 10:00: 0.9955
2025-02-07 13:00: 0.9960
2025-02-07 16:00: 0.9960
2025-02-07 19:00: 0.9955
2025-02-07 22:00: 0.9965
2025-02-08 01:00: 0.9965
2025-02-08 04:00: 0.9965
2025-02-08 07:00: 0.9960
2025-02-08 10:00: 0.9955
2025-02-08 13:00: 0.9935
2025-02-08 16:00: 0.9945
2025-02-08 19:00: 0.9945
Trade Summary: No trades available

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 515876
Question: Will the AfD win 10-15% of the vote in the German election?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 4653655.119749
Price History:
2025-02-09 07:00: 0.0055
2025-02-09 10:00: 0.0045
2025-02-09 13:00: 0.0060
2025-02-09 16:00: 0.0070
2025-02-09 19:00: 0.0050
2025-02-09 22:00: 0.0060
2025-02-10 01:00: 0.0065
2025-02-10 04:00: 0.0065
2025-02-10 07:00: 0.0045
2025-02-10 10:00: 0.0050
2025-02-10 13:00: 0.0045
2025-02-10 16:00: 0.0045
2025-02-10 19:00: 0.0045
2025-02-10 22:00: 0.0045
2025-02-11 01:00: 0.0045
2025-02-11 04:00: 0.0045
2025-02-11 07:00: 0.0045
2025-02-11 10:00: 0.0045
2025-02-11 13:00: 0.0045
2025-02-11 16:00: 0.0040
2025-02-11 19:00: 0.0035
2025-02-11 22:00: 0.0035
2025-02-12 01:00: 0.0035
2025-02-12 04:00: 0.0040
2025-02-12 07:00: 0.0040
2025-02-12 10:00: 0.0035
2025-02-12 13:00: 0.0035
2025-02-12 16:00: 0.0055
2025-02-12 19:00: 0.0055
2025-02-12 22:00: 0.0050
2025-02-13 01:00: 0.0045
2025-02-13 04:00: 0.0045
2025-02-13 07:00: 0.0055
2025-02-13 10:00: 0.0040
2025-02-13 13:00: 0.0035
2025-02-13 16:00: 0.0025
2025-02-13 19:00: 0.0025
2025-02-13 22:00: 0.0025
2025-02-14 01:00: 0.0020
2025-02-14 04:00: 0.0020
2025-02-14 07:00: 0.0025
2025-02-14 10:00: 0.0025
2025-02-14 13:00: 0.0025
2025-02-14 16:00: 0.0025
2025-02-14 19:00: 0.0025
2025-02-14 22:00: 0.0025
2025-02-15 01:00: 0.0025
2025-02-15 04:00: 0.0025
2025-02-15 07:00: 0.0025
2025-02-15 10:00: 0.0025
Trade Summary: No trades available

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 515876
Question: Will the AfD win 10-15% of the vote in the German election?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 4653655.119749
Price History:
2025-02-15 21:00: 0.9975
2025-02-16 00:00: 0.9975
2025-02-16 03:00: 0.9975
2025-02-16 06:00: 0.9970
2025-02-16 09:00: 0.9975
2025-02-16 12:00: 0.9975
2025-02-16 15:00: 0.9975
2025-02-16 18:00: 0.9975
2025-02-16 21:00: 0.9975
2025-02-17 00:00: 0.9975
2025-02-17 03:00: 0.9975
2025-02-17 06:00: 0.9975
2025-02-17 09:00: 0.9975
2025-02-17 12:00: 0.9975
2025-02-17 15:00: 0.9975
2025-02-17 18:00: 0.9970
2025-02-17 21:00: 0.9975
2025-02-18 00:00: 0.9975
2025-02-18 03:00: 0.9975
2025-02-18 06:00: 0.9975
2025-02-18 09:00: 0.9975
2025-02-18 12:00: 0.9975
2025-02-18 15:00: 0.9975
2025-02-18 18:00: 0.9975
2025-02-18 21:00: 0.9975
2025-02-19 00:00: 0.9975
2025-02-19 03:00: 0.9975
2025-02-19 06:00: 0.9975
2025-02-19 09:00: 0.9975
2025-02-19 12:00: 0.9975
2025-02-19 15:00: 0.9975
2025-02-19 18:00: 0.9975
2025-02-19 21:00: 0.9980
2025-02-20 00:00: 0.9980
2025-02-20 03:00: 0.9975
2025-02-20 06:00: 0.9975
2025-02-20 09:00: 0.9985
2025-02-20 12:00: 0.9985
2025-02-20 15:00: 0.9985
2025-02-20 18:00: 0.9975
2025-02-20 21:00: 0.9975
2025-02-21 00:00: 0.9975
2025-02-21 03:00: 0.9980
2025-02-21 06:00: 0.9980
2025-02-21 09:00: 0.9985
2025-02-21 12:00: 0.9985
2025-02-21 15:00: 0.9985
2025-02-21 18:00: 0.9985
2025-02-21 21:00: 0.9970
2025-02-22 00:00: 0.9970
Trade Summary: No trades available

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 515876
Question: Will the AfD win 10-15% of the vote in the German election?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 4653655.119749
Price History:
2025-02-22 12:00: 0.0035
2025-02-22 15:00: 0.0030
2025-02-22 18:00: 0.0045
2025-02-22 21:00: 0.0035
2025-02-23 00:00: 0.0035
2025-02-23 03:00: 0.0035
2025-02-23 06:00: 0.0035
2025-02-23 09:00: 0.0030
2025-02-23 12:00: 0.0025
2025-02-23 15:00: 0.0005
2025-02-23 18:00: 0.0005
2025-02-23 21:00: 0.0005
2025-02-24 00:00: 0.0005
2025-02-24 03:00: 0.0005
2025-02-24 06:00: 0.0005
2025-02-24 09:00: 0.0005
2025-02-24 12:00: 0.0005
2025-02-24 15:00: 0.0005
2025-02-24 18:00: 0.0005
2025-02-24 21:00: 0.0005
2025-02-25 00:00: 0.0005
2025-02-25 03:00: 0.0005
2025-02-25 06:00: 0.0005
2025-02-25 09:00: 0.0005
2025-02-25 12:00: 0.0005
2025-02-25 15:00: 0.0005
2025-02-25 18:00: 0.0005
2025-02-25 21:00: 0.0005
2025-02-26 00:00: 0.0005
2025-02-26 03:00: 0.0005
2025-02-26 06:00: 0.0005
2025-02-26 09:00: 0.0005
2025-02-26 12:00: 0.0005
2025-02-26 15:00: 0.0005
2025-02-26 18:00: 0.0005
2025-02-26 21:00: 0.0005
2025-02-27 00:00: 0.0005
2025-02-27 03:00: 0.0005
2025-02-27 06:00: 0.0005
2025-02-27 09:00: 0.0005
2025-02-27 12:00: 0.0005
2025-02-27 15:00: 0.0005
2025-02-27 18:00: 0.0005
2025-02-27 21:00: 0.0005
2025-02-28 00:00: 0.0005
2025-02-28 03:00: 0.0005
2025-02-28 06:00: 0.0005
2025-02-28 09:00: 0.0005
2025-02-28 12:00: 0.0005
2025-02-28 15:00: 0.0005
Trade Summary: No trades available

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 515876
Question: Will the AfD win 10-15% of the vote in the German election?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 4653655.119749
Price History:
2025-03-01 02:00: 0.9995
2025-03-01 05:00: 0.9995
2025-03-01 08:00: 0.9995
2025-03-01 11:00: 0.9995
2025-03-01 14:00: 0.9995
2025-03-01 17:00: 0.9995
2025-03-01 20:00: 0.9995
2025-03-01 23:00: 0.9995
2025-03-02 02:00: 0.9995
2025-03-02 05:00: 0.9995
2025-03-02 08:00: 0.9995
2025-03-02 11:00: 0.9995
2025-03-02 14:00: 0.9995
2025-03-02 17:00: 0.9995
2025-03-02 20:00: 0.9995
2025-03-02 23:00: 0.9995
2025-03-03 02:00: 0.9995
2025-03-03 05:00: 0.9995
2025-03-03 08:00: 0.9995
2025-03-03 11:00: 0.9995
2025-03-03 14:00: 0.9995
2025-03-03 17:00: 0.9995
2025-03-03 20:00: 0.9995
2025-03-03 23:00: 0.9995
2025-03-04 02:00: 0.9995
2025-03-04 05:00: 0.9995
2025-03-04 08:00: 0.9995
2025-03-04 11:00: 0.9995
2025-03-04 14:00: 0.9995
2025-03-04 17:00: 0.9995
2025-03-04 20:00: 0.9995
2025-03-04 23:00: 0.9995
2025-03-05 02:00: 0.9995
2025-03-05 05:00: 0.9995
2025-03-05 08:00: 0.9995
2025-03-05 11:00: 0.9995
2025-03-05 14:00: 0.9995
2025-03-05 17:00: 0.9995
2025-03-05 20:00: 0.9995
2025-03-05 23:00: 0.9995
2025-03-06 02:00: 0.9995
2025-03-06 05:00: 0.9995
2025-03-06 08:00: 0.9995
2025-03-06 11:00: 0.9995
2025-03-06 14:00: 0.9995
2025-03-06 17:00: 0.9995
2025-03-06 20:00: 0.9995
2025-03-06 23:00: 0.9995
2025-03-07 02:00: 0.9995
2025-03-07 05:00: 0.9995
Trade Summary: No trades available

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 515876
Question: Will the AfD win 10-15% of the vote in the German election?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 4653655.119749
Price History:
2025-03-07 17:00: 0.0005
2025-03-07 20:00: 0.0005
2025-03-07 23:00: 0.0005
2025-03-08 02:00: 0.0005
2025-03-08 05:00: 0.0005
2025-03-08 08:00: 0.0005
2025-03-08 11:00: 0.0005
2025-03-08 14:00: 0.0005
2025-03-08 17:00: 0.0005
2025-03-08 20:00: 0.0005
2025-03-08 23:00: 0.0005
2025-03-09 03:00: 0.0005
2025-03-09 06:00: 0.0005
2025-03-09 09:00: 0.0005
2025-03-09 12:00: 0.0005
2025-03-09 15:00: 0.0005
2025-03-09 18:00: 0.0005
2025-03-09 21:00: 0.0005
2025-03-10 00:00: 0.0005
2025-03-10 03:00: 0.0005
2025-03-10 06:00: 0.0005
2025-03-10 09:00: 0.0005
2025-03-10 12:00: 0.0005
2025-03-10 15:00: 0.0005
2025-03-10 18:00: 0.0005
2025-03-10 21:00: 0.0005
2025-03-11 00:00: 0.0005
2025-03-11 03:00: 0.0005
2025-03-11 06:00: 0.0005
2025-03-11 09:00: 0.0005
2025-03-11 12:00: 0.0005
2025-03-11 15:00: 0.0005
2025-03-11 18:00: 0.0005
2025-03-11 21:00: 0.0005
2025-03-12 00:00: 0.0005
2025-03-12 03:00: 0.0005
2025-03-12 06:00: 0.0005
2025-03-12 09:00: 0.0005
2025-03-12 12:00: 0.0005
2025-03-12 15:00: 0.0005
2025-03-12 18:00: 0.0005
2025-03-12 21:00: 0.0005
2025-03-13 00:00: 0.0005
2025-03-13 03:00: 0.0005
2025-03-13 06:00: 0.0005
2025-03-13 09:00: 0.0005
2025-03-13 12:00: 0.0005
2025-03-13 15:00: 0.0005
2025-03-13 18:00: 0.0005
2025-03-13 21:00: 0.0005
Trade Summary: No trades available

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 515876
Question: Will the AfD win 10-15% of the vote in the German election?
Volume: 4653655.119749
Price History:
2024-12-18 11:00: 0.2250
2024-12-18 16:00: 0.1150
2024-12-18 21:00: 0.1050
2024-12-19 02:00: 0.1100
2024-12-19 07:00: 0.1050
2024-12-19 12:00: 0.1050
2024-12-19 17:00: 0.1100
2024-12-19 22:00: 0.1100
2024-12-20 03:00: 0.1100
2024-12-20 08:00: 0.1000
2024-12-20 13:00: 0.0800
2024-12-20 18:00: 0.0290
2024-12-20 23:00: 0.0280
2024-12-21 04:00: 0.0270
2024-12-21 09:00: 0.0260
2024-12-21 14:00: 0.0275
2024-12-21 19:00: 0.0265
2024-12-22 00:00: 0.0265
2024-12-22 05:00: 0.0280
2024-12-22 10:00: 0.0285
2024-12-22 15:00: 0.0295
2024-12-22 20:00: 0.0275
2024-12-23 01:00: 0.0270
2024-12-23 06:00: 0.0270
2024-12-23 11:00: 0.0265
2024-12-23 16:00: 0.0270
2024-12-23 21:00: 0.0265
2024-12-24 02:00: 0.0265
2024-12-24 07:00: 0.0270
2024-12-24 12:00: 0.0320
Trade Summary: No trades available
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 515876
Question: Will the AfD win 10-15% of the vote in the German election?
Volume: 4653655.119749
Price History:
2024-12-25 01:00: 0.9625
2024-12-25 06:00: 0.9615
2024-12-25 11:00: 0.9635
2024-12-25 16:00: 0.9590
2024-12-25 21:00: 0.9565
2024-12-26 02:00: 0.9625
2024-12-26 07:00: 0.9625
2024-12-26 12:00: 0.9610
2024-12-26 17:00: 0.9620
2024-12-26 22:00: 0.9585
2024-12-27 03:00: 0.9605
2024-12-27 08:00: 0.9575
2024-12-27 13:00: 0.9575
2024-12-27 18:00: 0.9575
2024-12-27 23:00: 0.9575
2024-12-28 04:00: 0.9575
2024-12-28 09:00: 0.9565
2024-12-28 14:00: 0.9615
2024-12-28 19:00: 0.9615
2024-12-29 00:00: 0.9615
2024-12-29 05:00: 0.9610
2024-12-29 10:00: 0.9645
2024-12-29 15:00: 0.9630
2024-12-29 20:00: 0.9630
2024-12-30 01:00: 0.9630
2024-12-30 06:00: 0.9630
2024-12-30 11:00: 0.9625
2024-12-30 16:00: 0.9630
2024-12-30 21:00: 0.9705
2024-12-31 02:00: 0.9720
Trade Summary: No trades available
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 515876
Question: Will the AfD win 10-15% of the vote in the German election?
Volume: 4653655.119749
Price History:
2024-12-31 16:00: 0.0300
2024-12-31 21:00: 0.0300
2025-01-01 02:00: 0.0295
2025-01-01 07:00: 0.0310
2025-01-01 12:00: 0.0295
2025-01-01 17:00: 0.0315
2025-01-01 22:00: 0.0310
2025-01-02 03:00: 0.0305
2025-01-02 08:00: 0.0315
2025-01-02 13:00: 0.0315
2025-01-02 18:00: 0.0310
2025-01-02 23:00: 0.0310
2025-01-03 04:00: 0.0270
2025-01-03 09:00: 0.0265
2025-01-03 14:00: 0.0235
2025-01-03 19:00: 0.0240
2025-01-04 00:00: 0.0260
2025-01-04 05:00: 0.0225
2025-01-04 10:00: 0.0200
2025-01-04 15:00: 0.0220
2025-01-04 20:00: 0.0240
2025-01-05 01:00: 0.0205
2025-01-05 06:00: 0.0205
2025-01-05 11:00: 0.0240
2025-01-05 16:00: 0.0255
2025-01-05 21:00: 0.0270
2025-01-06 02:00: 0.0265
2025-01-06 07:00: 0.0250
2025-01-06 12:00: 0.0245
2025-01-06 17:00: 0.0245
Trade Summary: No trades available
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes