Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 570986
Question: Will Trump announce Elon Musk to replace Kugler?
Volume: 2397.32
Price History:
2025-08-06 13:00: 0.0050
2025-08-06 13:00: 0.9950
2025-08-06 14:00: 0.0050
2025-08-06 14:00: 0.9950
2025-08-06 15:00: 0.0050
2025-08-06 15:00: 0.9950
2025-08-06 16:00: 0.0050
2025-08-06 16:00: 0.9950
2025-08-06 17:00: 0.9950
2025-08-06 17:00: 0.0050
2025-08-06 18:00: 0.0050
2025-08-06 18:00: 0.9950
2025-08-06 19:00: 0.9950
2025-08-06 19:00: 0.0050
2025-08-06 20:00: 0.9950
2025-08-06 20:00: 0.0050
2025-08-06 21:00: 0.0050
2025-08-06 21:00: 0.9950
2025-08-06 22:00: 0.0050
2025-08-06 22:00: 0.9950
2025-08-06 23:00: 0.0050
2025-08-06 23:00: 0.9950
2025-08-07 00:00: 0.9950
Trade Summary: Total trades: 9, Buy volume: 2346.32, Sell volume: 51.00, Average price: 0.6662, Price range: 0.0010 - 0.9990
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 570986
Question: Will Trump announce Elon Musk to replace Kugler?
Volume: 2397.32
Price History:
2025-08-07 00:00: 0.0050
2025-08-07 01:00: 0.9950
2025-08-07 01:00: 0.0050
2025-08-07 02:00: 0.9950
2025-08-07 02:00: 0.0050
2025-08-07 03:00: 0.9950
2025-08-07 03:00: 0.0050
2025-08-07 04:00: 0.9950
2025-08-07 04:00: 0.0050
2025-08-07 05:00: 0.9950
2025-08-07 05:00: 0.0050
2025-08-07 06:00: 0.0050
2025-08-07 06:00: 0.9950
2025-08-07 07:00: 0.9950
2025-08-07 07:00: 0.0050
2025-08-07 08:00: 0.9950
2025-08-07 08:00: 0.0050
2025-08-07 09:00: 0.0050
2025-08-07 09:00: 0.9950
2025-08-07 10:00: 0.9950
2025-08-07 10:00: 0.0050
2025-08-07 11:00: 0.9950
2025-08-07 11:00: 0.0050
Trade Summary: Total trades: 9, Buy volume: 2346.32, Sell volume: 51.00, Average price: 0.6662, Price range: 0.0010 - 0.9990
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 570986
Question: Will Trump announce Elon Musk to replace Kugler?
Volume: 2397.32
Price History:
2025-08-07 12:00: 0.0050
2025-08-07 12:00: 0.9950
2025-08-07 13:00: 0.9950
2025-08-07 13:00: 0.0050
2025-08-07 14:00: 0.0050
2025-08-07 14:00: 0.9950
2025-08-07 15:00: 0.0050
2025-08-07 15:00: 0.9950
2025-08-07 16:00: 0.0045
2025-08-07 16:00: 0.9955
2025-08-07 17:00: 0.9995
2025-08-07 17:00: 0.0005
2025-08-07 18:00: 0.0005
2025-08-07 18:00: 0.9995
2025-08-07 19:00: 0.0005
2025-08-07 19:00: 0.9995
2025-08-07 20:00: 0.0005
2025-08-07 20:00: 0.9995
2025-08-07 21:00: 0.0005
2025-08-07 21:00: 0.9995
2025-08-07 22:00: 0.9995
2025-08-07 22:00: 0.0005
2025-08-07 23:00: 0.0005
Trade Summary: Total trades: 3, Buy volume: 2304.00, Sell volume: 0.00, Average price: 0.9986, Price range: 0.9980 - 0.9990
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 570987
Question: Will Trump announce Chris Waller to replace Kugler?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 4900.418179
Price History:
2025-08-01 18:00: 0.4950
2025-08-01 18:00: 0.5050
2025-08-01 19:00: 0.1250
2025-08-01 19:00: 0.8750
2025-08-01 20:00: 0.1250
2025-08-01 20:00: 0.8750
2025-08-01 21:00: 0.1200
2025-08-01 21:00: 0.8800
2025-08-01 22:00: 0.1200
2025-08-01 22:00: 0.8800
2025-08-01 23:00: 0.1200
2025-08-01 23:00: 0.8800
2025-08-02 00:00: 0.1200
2025-08-02 00:00: 0.8800
2025-08-02 01:00: 0.1200
2025-08-02 01:00: 0.8800
2025-08-02 02:00: 0.1200
2025-08-02 02:00: 0.8800
2025-08-02 03:00: 0.1200
2025-08-02 03:00: 0.8800
2025-08-02 04:00: 0.1150
2025-08-02 04:00: 0.8850
2025-08-02 05:00: 0.1150
Trade Summary: Total trades: 17, Buy volume: 4820.19, Sell volume: 80.23, Average price: 0.6541, Price range: 0.0040 - 0.9990

Output: No


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 570987
Question: Will Trump announce Chris Waller to replace Kugler?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 4900.418179
Price History:
2025-08-02 05:00: 0.8850
2025-08-02 06:00: 0.1150
2025-08-02 06:00: 0.8850
2025-08-02 07:00: 0.1150
2025-08-02 07:00: 0.8850
2025-08-02 08:00: 0.1150
2025-08-02 08:00: 0.8850
2025-08-02 09:00: 0.1150
2025-08-02 09:00: 0.8850
2025-08-02 10:00: 0.1150
2025-08-02 10:00: 0.8850
2025-08-02 11:00: 0.1150
2025-08-02 11:00: 0.8850
2025-08-02 12:00: 0.1150
2025-08-02 12:00: 0.8850
2025-08-02 13:00: 0.1150
2025-08-02 13:00: 0.8850
2025-08-02 14:00: 0.1150
2025-08-02 14:00: 0.8850
2025-08-02 15:00: 0.1150
2025-08-02 15:00: 0.8850
2025-08-02 16:00: 0.1150
2025-08-02 16:00: 0.8850
Trade Summary: Total trades: 1, Buy volume: 0.00, Sell volume: 1.00, Average price: 0.0100, Price range: 0.0100 - 0.0100

Output: No


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 570987
Question: Will Trump announce Chris Waller to replace Kugler?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 4900.418179
Price History:
2025-08-02 17:00: 0.1150
2025-08-02 17:00: 0.8850
2025-08-02 18:00: 0.1150
2025-08-02 18:00: 0.8850
2025-08-02 19:00: 0.1150
2025-08-02 19:00: 0.8850
2025-08-02 20:00: 0.1150
2025-08-02 20:00: 0.8850
2025-08-02 21:00: 0.1150
2025-08-02 21:00: 0.8850
2025-08-02 22:00: 0.1150
2025-08-02 22:00: 0.8850
2025-08-02 23:00: 0.1150
2025-08-02 23:00: 0.8850
2025-08-03 00:00: 0.1150
2025-08-03 00:00: 0.8850
2025-08-03 01:00: 0.1150
2025-08-03 01:00: 0.8850
2025-08-03 02:00: 0.1150
2025-08-03 02:00: 0.8850
2025-08-03 03:00: 0.1150
2025-08-03 03:00: 0.8850
2025-08-03 04:00: 0.1150
Trade Summary: Total trades: 17, Buy volume: 4820.19, Sell volume: 80.23, Average price: 0.6541, Price range: 0.0040 - 0.9990

Output: No


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 570987
Question: Will Trump announce Chris Waller to replace Kugler?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 4900.418179
Price History:
2025-08-03 04:00: 0.8850
2025-08-03 05:00: 0.1150
2025-08-03 05:00: 0.8850
2025-08-03 06:00: 0.2100
2025-08-03 06:00: 0.7900
2025-08-03 07:00: 0.2100
2025-08-03 07:00: 0.7900
2025-08-03 08:00: 0.2100
2025-08-03 08:00: 0.7900
2025-08-03 09:00: 0.2150
2025-08-03 09:00: 0.7850
2025-08-03 10:00: 0.2150
2025-08-03 10:00: 0.7850
2025-08-03 11:00: 0.2150
2025-08-03 11:00: 0.7850
2025-08-03 12:00: 0.2150
2025-08-03 12:00: 0.7850
2025-08-03 13:00: 0.2150
2025-08-03 13:00: 0.7850
2025-08-03 14:00: 0.2150
2025-08-03 14:00: 0.7850
2025-08-03 15:00: 0.2150
2025-08-03 15:00: 0.7850
Trade Summary: Total trades: 3, Buy volume: 46.82, Sell volume: 0.00, Average price: 0.4133, Price range: 0.2200 - 0.8000

Output: No


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 570987
Question: Will Trump announce Chris Waller to replace Kugler?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 4900.418179
Price History:
2025-08-03 16:00: 0.2150
2025-08-03 16:00: 0.7850
2025-08-03 17:00: 0.2150
2025-08-03 17:00: 0.7850
2025-08-03 18:00: 0.1550
2025-08-03 18:00: 0.8450
2025-08-03 19:00: 0.1150
2025-08-03 19:00: 0.8850
2025-08-03 20:00: 0.1300
2025-08-03 20:00: 0.8700
2025-08-03 21:00: 0.1400
2025-08-03 21:00: 0.8600
2025-08-03 22:00: 0.1100
2025-08-03 22:00: 0.8900
2025-08-03 23:00: 0.1450
2025-08-03 23:00: 0.8550
2025-08-04 00:00: 0.1450
2025-08-04 00:00: 0.8550
2025-08-04 01:00: 0.1450
2025-08-04 01:00: 0.8550
2025-08-04 02:00: 0.1450
2025-08-04 02:00: 0.8550
2025-08-04 03:00: 0.0750
Trade Summary: Total trades: 3, Buy volume: 717.28, Sell volume: 69.23, Average price: 0.6127, Price range: 0.1000 - 0.9000

Output: No


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 570987
Question: Will Trump announce Chris Waller to replace Kugler?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 4900.418179
Price History:
2025-08-04 03:00: 0.9250
2025-08-04 04:00: 0.0800
2025-08-04 04:00: 0.9200
2025-08-04 05:00: 0.0550
2025-08-04 05:00: 0.9450
2025-08-04 06:00: 0.0400
2025-08-04 06:00: 0.9600
2025-08-04 07:00: 0.0300
2025-08-04 07:00: 0.9700
2025-08-04 08:00: 0.0300
2025-08-04 08:00: 0.9700
2025-08-04 09:00: 0.0250
2025-08-04 09:00: 0.9750
2025-08-04 10:00: 0.0260
2025-08-04 10:00: 0.9740
2025-08-04 11:00: 0.0210
2025-08-04 11:00: 0.9790
2025-08-04 12:00: 0.0260
2025-08-04 12:00: 0.9740
2025-08-04 13:00: 0.0215
2025-08-04 13:00: 0.9785
2025-08-04 14:00: 0.0265
2025-08-04 14:00: 0.9735
Trade Summary: Total trades: 17, Buy volume: 4820.19, Sell volume: 80.23, Average price: 0.6541, Price range: 0.0040 - 0.9990

Output: No


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 570987
Question: Will Trump announce Chris Waller to replace Kugler?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 4900.418179
Price History:
2025-08-04 15:00: 0.0265
2025-08-04 15:00: 0.9735
2025-08-04 16:00: 0.0265
2025-08-04 16:00: 0.9735
2025-08-04 17:00: 0.0265
2025-08-04 17:00: 0.9735
2025-08-04 18:00: 0.0215
2025-08-04 18:00: 0.9785
2025-08-04 19:00: 0.0255
2025-08-04 19:00: 0.9745
2025-08-04 20:00: 0.0235
2025-08-04 20:00: 0.9765
2025-08-04 21:00: 0.0240
2025-08-04 21:00: 0.9760
2025-08-04 22:00: 0.0245
2025-08-04 22:00: 0.9755
2025-08-04 23:00: 0.0240
2025-08-04 23:00: 0.9760
2025-08-05 00:00: 0.0245
2025-08-05 00:00: 0.9755
2025-08-05 01:00: 0.0240
2025-08-05 01:00: 0.9760
2025-08-05 02:00: 0.0245
Trade Summary: Total trades: 17, Buy volume: 4820.19, Sell volume: 80.23, Average price: 0.6541, Price range: 0.0040 - 0.9990

Output: No


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 570987
Question: Will Trump announce Chris Waller to replace Kugler?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 4900.418179
Price History:
2025-08-05 02:00: 0.9755
2025-08-05 03:00: 0.0245
2025-08-05 03:00: 0.9755
2025-08-05 04:00: 0.0245
2025-08-05 04:00: 0.9755
2025-08-05 05:00: 0.0215
2025-08-05 05:00: 0.9785
2025-08-05 06:00: 0.0245
2025-08-05 06:00: 0.9755
2025-08-05 07:00: 0.0240
2025-08-05 07:00: 0.9760
2025-08-05 08:00: 0.0270
2025-08-05 08:00: 0.9730
2025-08-05 09:00: 0.0270
2025-08-05 09:00: 0.9730
2025-08-05 10:00: 0.0170
2025-08-05 10:00: 0.9830
2025-08-05 11:00: 0.0220
2025-08-05 11:00: 0.9780
2025-08-05 12:00: 0.0265
2025-08-05 12:00: 0.9735
2025-08-05 13:00: 0.0265
2025-08-05 13:00: 0.9735
Trade Summary: Total trades: 4, Buy volume: 72.32, Sell volume: 10.00, Average price: 0.5115, Price range: 0.0040 - 0.9960

Output: No


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 570987
Question: Will Trump announce Chris Waller to replace Kugler?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 4900.418179
Price History:
2025-08-05 14:00: 0.0265
2025-08-05 14:00: 0.9735
2025-08-05 15:00: 0.0265
2025-08-05 15:00: 0.9735
2025-08-05 16:00: 0.0215
2025-08-05 16:00: 0.9785
2025-08-05 17:00: 0.0165
2025-08-05 17:00: 0.9835
2025-08-05 18:00: 0.0165
2025-08-05 18:00: 0.9835
2025-08-05 19:00: 0.0165
2025-08-05 19:00: 0.9835
2025-08-05 20:00: 0.0215
2025-08-05 20:00: 0.9785
2025-08-05 21:00: 0.0165
2025-08-05 21:00: 0.9835
2025-08-05 22:00: 0.0165
2025-08-05 22:00: 0.9835
2025-08-05 23:00: 0.0165
2025-08-05 23:00: 0.9835
2025-08-06 00:00: 0.0165
2025-08-06 00:00: 0.9835
2025-08-06 01:00: 0.0165
Trade Summary: Total trades: 17, Buy volume: 4820.19, Sell volume: 80.23, Average price: 0.6541, Price range: 0.0040 - 0.9990

Output: No


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 570987
Question: Will Trump announce Chris Waller to replace Kugler?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 4900.418179
Price History:
2025-08-06 01:00: 0.9835
2025-08-06 02:00: 0.0165
2025-08-06 02:00: 0.9835
2025-08-06 03:00: 0.0165
2025-08-06 03:00: 0.9835
2025-08-06 04:00: 0.0165
2025-08-06 04:00: 0.9835
2025-08-06 05:00: 0.0165
2025-08-06 05:00: 0.9835
2025-08-06 06:00: 0.0215
2025-08-06 06:00: 0.9785
2025-08-06 07:00: 0.0165
2025-08-06 07:00: 0.9835
2025-08-06 08:00: 0.0165
2025-08-06 08:00: 0.9835
2025-08-06 09:00: 0.0165
2025-08-06 09:00: 0.9835
2025-08-06 10:00: 0.0165
2025-08-06 10:00: 0.9835
2025-08-06 11:00: 0.0165
2025-08-06 11:00: 0.9835
2025-08-06 12:00: 0.0165
2025-08-06 12:00: 0.9835
Trade Summary: Total trades: 17, Buy volume: 4820.19, Sell volume: 80.23, Average price: 0.6541, Price range: 0.0040 - 0.9990

Output: No


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 570987
Question: Will Trump announce Chris Waller to replace Kugler?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 4900.418179
Price History:
2025-08-06 13:00: 0.0165
2025-08-06 13:00: 0.9835
2025-08-06 14:00: 0.0165
2025-08-06 14:00: 0.9835
2025-08-06 15:00: 0.0165
2025-08-06 15:00: 0.9835
2025-08-06 16:00: 0.9835
2025-08-06 16:00: 0.0165
2025-08-06 17:00: 0.9835
2025-08-06 17:00: 0.0165
2025-08-06 18:00: 0.0165
2025-08-06 18:00: 0.9835
2025-08-06 19:00: 0.0165
2025-08-06 19:00: 0.9835
2025-08-06 20:00: 0.9835
2025-08-06 20:00: 0.0165
2025-08-06 21:00: 0.9835
2025-08-06 21:00: 0.0165
2025-08-06 22:00: 0.0165
2025-08-06 22:00: 0.9835
2025-08-06 23:00: 0.9835
2025-08-06 23:00: 0.0165
2025-08-07 00:00: 0.9835
Trade Summary: Total trades: 17, Buy volume: 4820.19, Sell volume: 80.23, Average price: 0.6541, Price range: 0.0040 - 0.9990

Output: No


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 570987
Question: Will Trump announce Chris Waller to replace Kugler?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 4900.418179
Price History:
2025-08-07 00:00: 0.0165
2025-08-07 01:00: 0.9835
2025-08-07 01:00: 0.0165
2025-08-07 02:00: 0.9835
2025-08-07 02:00: 0.0165
2025-08-07 03:00: 0.9835
2025-08-07 03:00: 0.0165
2025-08-07 04:00: 0.9835
2025-08-07 04:00: 0.0165
2025-08-07 05:00: 0.9780
2025-08-07 05:00: 0.0220
2025-08-07 06:00: 0.0170
2025-08-07 06:00: 0.9830
2025-08-07 07:00: 0.9825
2025-08-07 07:00: 0.0175
2025-08-07 08:00: 0.0175
2025-08-07 08:00: 0.9825
2025-08-07 09:00: 0.9825
2025-08-07 09:00: 0.0175
2025-08-07 10:00: 0.9825
2025-08-07 10:00: 0.0175
2025-08-07 11:00: 0.9815
2025-08-07 11:00: 0.0185
Trade Summary: Total trades: 1, Buy volume: 57.00, Sell volume: 0.00, Average price: 0.9960, Price range: 0.9960 - 0.9960

Output: No


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 570987
Question: Will Trump announce Chris Waller to replace Kugler?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 4900.418179
Price History:
2025-08-07 12:00: 0.9815
2025-08-07 12:00: 0.0185
2025-08-07 13:00: 0.0140
2025-08-07 13:00: 0.9860
2025-08-07 14:00: 0.0140
2025-08-07 14:00: 0.9860
2025-08-07 15:00: 0.9910
2025-08-07 15:00: 0.0090
2025-08-07 16:00: 0.9975
2025-08-07 16:00: 0.0025
2025-08-07 17:00: 0.0010
2025-08-07 17:00: 0.9990
2025-08-07 18:00: 0.0010
2025-08-07 18:00: 0.9990
2025-08-07 19:00: 0.9990
2025-08-07 19:00: 0.0010
2025-08-07 20:00: 0.0010
2025-08-07 20:00: 0.9990
2025-08-07 21:00: 0.9995
2025-08-07 21:00: 0.0005
2025-08-07 22:00: 0.9995
2025-08-07 22:00: 0.0005
2025-08-07 23:00: 0.0005
Trade Summary: Total trades: 5, Buy volume: 3926.77, Sell volume: 0.00, Average price: 0.9980, Price range: 0.9960 - 0.9990

Output: No


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 570987
Question: Will Trump announce Chris Waller to replace Kugler?
Volume: 4900.418179
Price History:
2025-08-01 18:00: 0.4950
2025-08-01 18:00: 0.5050
2025-08-01 19:00: 0.1250
2025-08-01 19:00: 0.8750
2025-08-01 20:00: 0.1250
2025-08-01 20:00: 0.8750
2025-08-01 21:00: 0.1200
2025-08-01 21:00: 0.8800
2025-08-01 22:00: 0.1200
2025-08-01 22:00: 0.8800
2025-08-01 23:00: 0.1200
2025-08-01 23:00: 0.8800
2025-08-02 00:00: 0.1200
2025-08-02 00:00: 0.8800
2025-08-02 01:00: 0.1200
2025-08-02 01:00: 0.8800
2025-08-02 02:00: 0.1200
2025-08-02 02:00: 0.8800
2025-08-02 03:00: 0.1200
2025-08-02 03:00: 0.8800
2025-08-02 04:00: 0.1150
2025-08-02 04:00: 0.8850
2025-08-02 05:00: 0.1150
Trade Summary: Total trades: 17, Buy volume: 4820.19, Sell volume: 80.23, Average price: 0.6541, Price range: 0.0040 - 0.9990
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 570987
Question: Will Trump announce Chris Waller to replace Kugler?
Volume: 4900.418179
Price History:
2025-08-02 05:00: 0.8850
2025-08-02 06:00: 0.1150
2025-08-02 06:00: 0.8850
2025-08-02 07:00: 0.1150
2025-08-02 07:00: 0.8850
2025-08-02 08:00: 0.1150
2025-08-02 08:00: 0.8850
2025-08-02 09:00: 0.1150
2025-08-02 09:00: 0.8850
2025-08-02 10:00: 0.1150
2025-08-02 10:00: 0.8850
2025-08-02 11:00: 0.1150
2025-08-02 11:00: 0.8850
2025-08-02 12:00: 0.1150
2025-08-02 12:00: 0.8850
2025-08-02 13:00: 0.1150
2025-08-02 13:00: 0.8850
2025-08-02 14:00: 0.1150
2025-08-02 14:00: 0.8850
2025-08-02 15:00: 0.1150
2025-08-02 15:00: 0.8850
2025-08-02 16:00: 0.1150
2025-08-02 16:00: 0.8850
Trade Summary: Total trades: 1, Buy volume: 0.00, Sell volume: 1.00, Average price: 0.0100, Price range: 0.0100 - 0.0100
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 570987
Question: Will Trump announce Chris Waller to replace Kugler?
Volume: 4900.418179
Price History:
2025-08-02 17:00: 0.1150
2025-08-02 17:00: 0.8850
2025-08-02 18:00: 0.1150
2025-08-02 18:00: 0.8850
2025-08-02 19:00: 0.1150
2025-08-02 19:00: 0.8850
2025-08-02 20:00: 0.1150
2025-08-02 20:00: 0.8850
2025-08-02 21:00: 0.1150
2025-08-02 21:00: 0.8850
2025-08-02 22:00: 0.1150
2025-08-02 22:00: 0.8850
2025-08-02 23:00: 0.1150
2025-08-02 23:00: 0.8850
2025-08-03 00:00: 0.1150
2025-08-03 00:00: 0.8850
2025-08-03 01:00: 0.1150
2025-08-03 01:00: 0.8850
2025-08-03 02:00: 0.1150
2025-08-03 02:00: 0.8850
2025-08-03 03:00: 0.1150
2025-08-03 03:00: 0.8850
2025-08-03 04:00: 0.1150
Trade Summary: Total trades: 17, Buy volume: 4820.19, Sell volume: 80.23, Average price: 0.6541, Price range: 0.0040 - 0.9990
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 570987
Question: Will Trump announce Chris Waller to replace Kugler?
Volume: 4900.418179
Price History:
2025-08-03 04:00: 0.8850
2025-08-03 05:00: 0.1150
2025-08-03 05:00: 0.8850
2025-08-03 06:00: 0.2100
2025-08-03 06:00: 0.7900
2025-08-03 07:00: 0.2100
2025-08-03 07:00: 0.7900
2025-08-03 08:00: 0.2100
2025-08-03 08:00: 0.7900
2025-08-03 09:00: 0.2150
2025-08-03 09:00: 0.7850
2025-08-03 10:00: 0.2150
2025-08-03 10:00: 0.7850
2025-08-03 11:00: 0.2150
2025-08-03 11:00: 0.7850
2025-08-03 12:00: 0.2150
2025-08-03 12:00: 0.7850
2025-08-03 13:00: 0.2150
2025-08-03 13:00: 0.7850
2025-08-03 14:00: 0.2150
2025-08-03 14:00: 0.7850
2025-08-03 15:00: 0.2150
2025-08-03 15:00: 0.7850
Trade Summary: Total trades: 3, Buy volume: 46.82, Sell volume: 0.00, Average price: 0.4133, Price range: 0.2200 - 0.8000
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 570987
Question: Will Trump announce Chris Waller to replace Kugler?
Volume: 4900.418179
Price History:
2025-08-03 16:00: 0.2150
2025-08-03 16:00: 0.7850
2025-08-03 17:00: 0.2150
2025-08-03 17:00: 0.7850
2025-08-03 18:00: 0.1550
2025-08-03 18:00: 0.8450
2025-08-03 19:00: 0.1150
2025-08-03 19:00: 0.8850
2025-08-03 20:00: 0.1300
2025-08-03 20:00: 0.8700
2025-08-03 21:00: 0.1400
2025-08-03 21:00: 0.8600
2025-08-03 22:00: 0.1100
2025-08-03 22:00: 0.8900
2025-08-03 23:00: 0.1450
2025-08-03 23:00: 0.8550
2025-08-04 00:00: 0.1450
2025-08-04 00:00: 0.8550
2025-08-04 01:00: 0.1450
2025-08-04 01:00: 0.8550
2025-08-04 02:00: 0.1450
2025-08-04 02:00: 0.8550
2025-08-04 03:00: 0.0750
Trade Summary: Total trades: 3, Buy volume: 717.28, Sell volume: 69.23, Average price: 0.6127, Price range: 0.1000 - 0.9000
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 570987
Question: Will Trump announce Chris Waller to replace Kugler?
Volume: 4900.418179
Price History:
2025-08-04 03:00: 0.9250
2025-08-04 04:00: 0.0800
2025-08-04 04:00: 0.9200
2025-08-04 05:00: 0.0550
2025-08-04 05:00: 0.9450
2025-08-04 06:00: 0.0400
2025-08-04 06:00: 0.9600
2025-08-04 07:00: 0.0300
2025-08-04 07:00: 0.9700
2025-08-04 08:00: 0.0300
2025-08-04 08:00: 0.9700
2025-08-04 09:00: 0.0250
2025-08-04 09:00: 0.9750
2025-08-04 10:00: 0.0260
2025-08-04 10:00: 0.9740
2025-08-04 11:00: 0.0210
2025-08-04 11:00: 0.9790
2025-08-04 12:00: 0.0260
2025-08-04 12:00: 0.9740
2025-08-04 13:00: 0.0215
2025-08-04 13:00: 0.9785
2025-08-04 14:00: 0.0265
2025-08-04 14:00: 0.9735
Trade Summary: Total trades: 17, Buy volume: 4820.19, Sell volume: 80.23, Average price: 0.6541, Price range: 0.0040 - 0.9990
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 570987
Question: Will Trump announce Chris Waller to replace Kugler?
Volume: 4900.418179
Price History:
2025-08-04 15:00: 0.0265
2025-08-04 15:00: 0.9735
2025-08-04 16:00: 0.0265
2025-08-04 16:00: 0.9735
2025-08-04 17:00: 0.0265
2025-08-04 17:00: 0.9735
2025-08-04 18:00: 0.0215
2025-08-04 18:00: 0.9785
2025-08-04 19:00: 0.0255
2025-08-04 19:00: 0.9745
2025-08-04 20:00: 0.0235
2025-08-04 20:00: 0.9765
2025-08-04 21:00: 0.0240
2025-08-04 21:00: 0.9760
2025-08-04 22:00: 0.0245
2025-08-04 22:00: 0.9755
2025-08-04 23:00: 0.0240
2025-08-04 23:00: 0.9760
2025-08-05 00:00: 0.0245
2025-08-05 00:00: 0.9755
2025-08-05 01:00: 0.0240
2025-08-05 01:00: 0.9760
2025-08-05 02:00: 0.0245
Trade Summary: Total trades: 17, Buy volume: 4820.19, Sell volume: 80.23, Average price: 0.6541, Price range: 0.0040 - 0.9990
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 570987
Question: Will Trump announce Chris Waller to replace Kugler?
Volume: 4900.418179
Price History:
2025-08-05 02:00: 0.9755
2025-08-05 03:00: 0.0245
2025-08-05 03:00: 0.9755
2025-08-05 04:00: 0.0245
2025-08-05 04:00: 0.9755
2025-08-05 05:00: 0.0215
2025-08-05 05:00: 0.9785
2025-08-05 06:00: 0.0245
2025-08-05 06:00: 0.9755
2025-08-05 07:00: 0.0240
2025-08-05 07:00: 0.9760
2025-08-05 08:00: 0.0270
2025-08-05 08:00: 0.9730
2025-08-05 09:00: 0.0270
2025-08-05 09:00: 0.9730
2025-08-05 10:00: 0.0170
2025-08-05 10:00: 0.9830
2025-08-05 11:00: 0.0220
2025-08-05 11:00: 0.9780
2025-08-05 12:00: 0.0265
2025-08-05 12:00: 0.9735
2025-08-05 13:00: 0.0265
2025-08-05 13:00: 0.9735
Trade Summary: Total trades: 4, Buy volume: 72.32, Sell volume: 10.00, Average price: 0.5115, Price range: 0.0040 - 0.9960
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 570987
Question: Will Trump announce Chris Waller to replace Kugler?
Volume: 4900.418179
Price History:
2025-08-05 14:00: 0.0265
2025-08-05 14:00: 0.9735
2025-08-05 15:00: 0.0265
2025-08-05 15:00: 0.9735
2025-08-05 16:00: 0.0215
2025-08-05 16:00: 0.9785
2025-08-05 17:00: 0.0165
2025-08-05 17:00: 0.9835
2025-08-05 18:00: 0.0165
2025-08-05 18:00: 0.9835
2025-08-05 19:00: 0.0165
2025-08-05 19:00: 0.9835
2025-08-05 20:00: 0.0215
2025-08-05 20:00: 0.9785
2025-08-05 21:00: 0.0165
2025-08-05 21:00: 0.9835
2025-08-05 22:00: 0.0165
2025-08-05 22:00: 0.9835
2025-08-05 23:00: 0.0165
2025-08-05 23:00: 0.9835
2025-08-06 00:00: 0.0165
2025-08-06 00:00: 0.9835
2025-08-06 01:00: 0.0165
Trade Summary: Total trades: 17, Buy volume: 4820.19, Sell volume: 80.23, Average price: 0.6541, Price range: 0.0040 - 0.9990
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 570987
Question: Will Trump announce Chris Waller to replace Kugler?
Volume: 4900.418179
Price History:
2025-08-06 01:00: 0.9835
2025-08-06 02:00: 0.0165
2025-08-06 02:00: 0.9835
2025-08-06 03:00: 0.0165
2025-08-06 03:00: 0.9835
2025-08-06 04:00: 0.0165
2025-08-06 04:00: 0.9835
2025-08-06 05:00: 0.0165
2025-08-06 05:00: 0.9835
2025-08-06 06:00: 0.0215
2025-08-06 06:00: 0.9785
2025-08-06 07:00: 0.0165
2025-08-06 07:00: 0.9835
2025-08-06 08:00: 0.0165
2025-08-06 08:00: 0.9835
2025-08-06 09:00: 0.0165
2025-08-06 09:00: 0.9835
2025-08-06 10:00: 0.0165
2025-08-06 10:00: 0.9835
2025-08-06 11:00: 0.0165
2025-08-06 11:00: 0.9835
2025-08-06 12:00: 0.0165
2025-08-06 12:00: 0.9835
Trade Summary: Total trades: 17, Buy volume: 4820.19, Sell volume: 80.23, Average price: 0.6541, Price range: 0.0040 - 0.9990
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 570987
Question: Will Trump announce Chris Waller to replace Kugler?
Volume: 4900.418179
Price History:
2025-08-06 13:00: 0.0165
2025-08-06 13:00: 0.9835
2025-08-06 14:00: 0.0165
2025-08-06 14:00: 0.9835
2025-08-06 15:00: 0.0165
2025-08-06 15:00: 0.9835
2025-08-06 16:00: 0.9835
2025-08-06 16:00: 0.0165
2025-08-06 17:00: 0.9835
2025-08-06 17:00: 0.0165
2025-08-06 18:00: 0.0165
2025-08-06 18:00: 0.9835
2025-08-06 19:00: 0.0165
2025-08-06 19:00: 0.9835
2025-08-06 20:00: 0.9835
2025-08-06 20:00: 0.0165
2025-08-06 21:00: 0.9835
2025-08-06 21:00: 0.0165
2025-08-06 22:00: 0.0165
2025-08-06 22:00: 0.9835
2025-08-06 23:00: 0.9835
2025-08-06 23:00: 0.0165
2025-08-07 00:00: 0.9835
Trade Summary: Total trades: 17, Buy volume: 4820.19, Sell volume: 80.23, Average price: 0.6541, Price range: 0.0040 - 0.9990
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 570987
Question: Will Trump announce Chris Waller to replace Kugler?
Volume: 4900.418179
Price History:
2025-08-07 00:00: 0.0165
2025-08-07 01:00: 0.9835
2025-08-07 01:00: 0.0165
2025-08-07 02:00: 0.9835
2025-08-07 02:00: 0.0165
2025-08-07 03:00: 0.9835
2025-08-07 03:00: 0.0165
2025-08-07 04:00: 0.9835
2025-08-07 04:00: 0.0165
2025-08-07 05:00: 0.9780
2025-08-07 05:00: 0.0220
2025-08-07 06:00: 0.0170
2025-08-07 06:00: 0.9830
2025-08-07 07:00: 0.9825
2025-08-07 07:00: 0.0175
2025-08-07 08:00: 0.0175
2025-08-07 08:00: 0.9825
2025-08-07 09:00: 0.9825
2025-08-07 09:00: 0.0175
2025-08-07 10:00: 0.9825
2025-08-07 10:00: 0.0175
2025-08-07 11:00: 0.9815
2025-08-07 11:00: 0.0185
Trade Summary: Total trades: 1, Buy volume: 57.00, Sell volume: 0.00, Average price: 0.9960, Price range: 0.9960 - 0.9960
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 570987
Question: Will Trump announce Chris Waller to replace Kugler?
Volume: 4900.418179
Price History:
2025-08-07 12:00: 0.9815
2025-08-07 12:00: 0.0185
2025-08-07 13:00: 0.0140
2025-08-07 13:00: 0.9860
2025-08-07 14:00: 0.0140
2025-08-07 14:00: 0.9860
2025-08-07 15:00: 0.9910
2025-08-07 15:00: 0.0090
2025-08-07 16:00: 0.9975
2025-08-07 16:00: 0.0025
2025-08-07 17:00: 0.0010
2025-08-07 17:00: 0.9990
2025-08-07 18:00: 0.0010
2025-08-07 18:00: 0.9990
2025-08-07 19:00: 0.9990
2025-08-07 19:00: 0.0010
2025-08-07 20:00: 0.0010
2025-08-07 20:00: 0.9990
2025-08-07 21:00: 0.9995
2025-08-07 21:00: 0.0005
2025-08-07 22:00: 0.9995
2025-08-07 22:00: 0.0005
2025-08-07 23:00: 0.0005
Trade Summary: Total trades: 5, Buy volume: 3926.77, Sell volume: 0.00, Average price: 0.9980, Price range: 0.9960 - 0.9990
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 570988
Question: Will Trump announce Michelle Bowman to replace Kugler?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 1555.315788
Price History:
2025-08-01 18:00: 0.4950
2025-08-01 18:00: 0.5050
2025-08-01 19:00: 0.1000
2025-08-01 19:00: 0.9000
2025-08-01 20:00: 0.1000
2025-08-01 20:00: 0.9000
2025-08-01 21:00: 0.0950
2025-08-01 21:00: 0.9050
2025-08-01 22:00: 0.0950
2025-08-01 22:00: 0.9050
2025-08-01 23:00: 0.0950
2025-08-01 23:00: 0.9050
2025-08-02 00:00: 0.0950
2025-08-02 00:00: 0.9050
2025-08-02 01:00: 0.0950
2025-08-02 01:00: 0.9050
2025-08-02 02:00: 0.0950
2025-08-02 02:00: 0.9050
2025-08-02 03:00: 0.0950
2025-08-02 03:00: 0.9050
2025-08-02 04:00: 0.0950
2025-08-02 04:00: 0.9050
2025-08-02 05:00: 0.0950
Trade Summary: Total trades: 9, Buy volume: 1544.32, Sell volume: 11.00, Average price: 0.6882, Price range: 0.0055 - 0.9990

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 570988
Question: Will Trump announce Michelle Bowman to replace Kugler?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 1555.315788
Price History:
2025-08-02 05:00: 0.9050
2025-08-02 06:00: 0.0950
2025-08-02 06:00: 0.9050
2025-08-02 07:00: 0.0950
2025-08-02 07:00: 0.9050
2025-08-02 08:00: 0.0950
2025-08-02 08:00: 0.9050
2025-08-02 09:00: 0.0950
2025-08-02 09:00: 0.9050
2025-08-02 10:00: 0.0950
2025-08-02 10:00: 0.9050
2025-08-02 11:00: 0.0950
2025-08-02 11:00: 0.9050
2025-08-02 12:00: 0.0950
2025-08-02 12:00: 0.9050
2025-08-02 13:00: 0.0950
2025-08-02 13:00: 0.9050
2025-08-02 14:00: 0.0950
2025-08-02 14:00: 0.9050
2025-08-02 15:00: 0.0950
2025-08-02 15:00: 0.9050
2025-08-02 16:00: 0.0950
2025-08-02 16:00: 0.9050
Trade Summary: Total trades: 9, Buy volume: 1544.32, Sell volume: 11.00, Average price: 0.6882, Price range: 0.0055 - 0.9990

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 570988
Question: Will Trump announce Michelle Bowman to replace Kugler?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 1555.315788
Price History:
2025-08-02 17:00: 0.0950
2025-08-02 17:00: 0.9050
2025-08-02 18:00: 0.0950
2025-08-02 18:00: 0.9050
2025-08-02 19:00: 0.0950
2025-08-02 19:00: 0.9050
2025-08-02 20:00: 0.0950
2025-08-02 20:00: 0.9050
2025-08-02 21:00: 0.0950
2025-08-02 21:00: 0.9050
2025-08-02 22:00: 0.0950
2025-08-02 22:00: 0.9050
2025-08-02 23:00: 0.0950
2025-08-02 23:00: 0.9050
2025-08-03 00:00: 0.0950
2025-08-03 00:00: 0.9050
2025-08-03 01:00: 0.0950
2025-08-03 01:00: 0.9050
2025-08-03 02:00: 0.0950
2025-08-03 02:00: 0.9050
2025-08-03 03:00: 0.0950
2025-08-03 03:00: 0.9050
2025-08-03 04:00: 0.0950
Trade Summary: Total trades: 9, Buy volume: 1544.32, Sell volume: 11.00, Average price: 0.6882, Price range: 0.0055 - 0.9990

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 570988
Question: Will Trump announce Michelle Bowman to replace Kugler?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 1555.315788
Price History:
2025-08-03 04:00: 0.9050
2025-08-03 05:00: 0.0950
2025-08-03 05:00: 0.9050
2025-08-03 06:00: 0.0900
2025-08-03 06:00: 0.9100
2025-08-03 07:00: 0.0800
2025-08-03 07:00: 0.9200
2025-08-03 08:00: 0.0800
2025-08-03 08:00: 0.9200
2025-08-03 09:00: 0.0800
2025-08-03 09:00: 0.9200
2025-08-03 10:00: 0.0800
2025-08-03 10:00: 0.9200
2025-08-03 11:00: 0.0800
2025-08-03 11:00: 0.9200
2025-08-03 12:00: 0.0950
2025-08-03 12:00: 0.9050
2025-08-03 13:00: 0.0950
2025-08-03 13:00: 0.9050
2025-08-03 14:00: 0.0950
2025-08-03 14:00: 0.9050
2025-08-03 15:00: 0.0950
2025-08-03 15:00: 0.9050
Trade Summary: Total trades: 2, Buy volume: 6.32, Sell volume: 1.00, Average price: 0.1000, Price range: 0.0100 - 0.1900

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 570988
Question: Will Trump announce Michelle Bowman to replace Kugler?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 1555.315788
Price History:
2025-08-03 16:00: 0.0950
2025-08-03 16:00: 0.9050
2025-08-03 17:00: 0.0950
2025-08-03 17:00: 0.9050
2025-08-03 18:00: 0.0950
2025-08-03 18:00: 0.9050
2025-08-03 19:00: 0.0950
2025-08-03 19:00: 0.9050
2025-08-03 20:00: 0.0950
2025-08-03 20:00: 0.9050
2025-08-03 21:00: 0.0950
2025-08-03 21:00: 0.9050
2025-08-03 22:00: 0.0950
2025-08-03 22:00: 0.9050
2025-08-03 23:00: 0.0950
2025-08-03 23:00: 0.9050
2025-08-04 00:00: 0.0950
2025-08-04 00:00: 0.9050
2025-08-04 01:00: 0.0950
2025-08-04 01:00: 0.9050
2025-08-04 02:00: 0.0950
2025-08-04 02:00: 0.9050
2025-08-04 03:00: 0.0950
Trade Summary: Total trades: 9, Buy volume: 1544.32, Sell volume: 11.00, Average price: 0.6882, Price range: 0.0055 - 0.9990

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 570988
Question: Will Trump announce Michelle Bowman to replace Kugler?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 1555.315788
Price History:
2025-08-04 03:00: 0.9050
2025-08-04 04:00: 0.0950
2025-08-04 04:00: 0.9050
2025-08-04 05:00: 0.0950
2025-08-04 05:00: 0.9050
2025-08-04 06:00: 0.0950
2025-08-04 06:00: 0.9050
2025-08-04 07:00: 0.0950
2025-08-04 07:00: 0.9050
2025-08-04 08:00: 0.0950
2025-08-04 08:00: 0.9050
2025-08-04 09:00: 0.0500
2025-08-04 09:00: 0.9500
2025-08-04 10:00: 0.1000
2025-08-04 10:00: 0.9000
2025-08-04 11:00: 0.1000
2025-08-04 11:00: 0.9000
2025-08-04 12:00: 0.1000
2025-08-04 12:00: 0.9000
2025-08-04 13:00: 0.1000
2025-08-04 13:00: 0.9000
2025-08-04 14:00: 0.1000
2025-08-04 14:00: 0.9000
Trade Summary: Total trades: 9, Buy volume: 1544.32, Sell volume: 11.00, Average price: 0.6882, Price range: 0.0055 - 0.9990

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 570988
Question: Will Trump announce Michelle Bowman to replace Kugler?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 1555.315788
Price History:
2025-08-04 15:00: 0.1000
2025-08-04 15:00: 0.9000
2025-08-04 16:00: 0.0850
2025-08-04 16:00: 0.9150
2025-08-04 17:00: 0.0450
2025-08-04 17:00: 0.9550
2025-08-04 18:00: 0.0550
2025-08-04 18:00: 0.9450
2025-08-04 19:00: 0.0500
2025-08-04 19:00: 0.9500
2025-08-04 20:00: 0.0400
2025-08-04 20:00: 0.9600
2025-08-04 21:00: 0.0400
2025-08-04 21:00: 0.9600
2025-08-04 22:00: 0.0350
2025-08-04 22:00: 0.9650
2025-08-04 23:00: 0.0400
2025-08-04 23:00: 0.9600
2025-08-05 00:00: 0.0400
2025-08-05 00:00: 0.9600
2025-08-05 01:00: 0.0400
2025-08-05 01:00: 0.9600
2025-08-05 02:00: 0.0400
Trade Summary: Total trades: 9, Buy volume: 1544.32, Sell volume: 11.00, Average price: 0.6882, Price range: 0.0055 - 0.9990

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 570988
Question: Will Trump announce Michelle Bowman to replace Kugler?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 1555.315788
Price History:
2025-08-05 02:00: 0.9600
2025-08-05 03:00: 0.0400
2025-08-05 03:00: 0.9600
2025-08-05 04:00: 0.0400
2025-08-05 04:00: 0.9600
2025-08-05 05:00: 0.0400
2025-08-05 05:00: 0.9600
2025-08-05 06:00: 0.0360
2025-08-05 06:00: 0.9640
2025-08-05 07:00: 0.0365
2025-08-05 07:00: 0.9635
2025-08-05 08:00: 0.0365
2025-08-05 08:00: 0.9635
2025-08-05 09:00: 0.0360
2025-08-05 09:00: 0.9640
2025-08-05 10:00: 0.0165
2025-08-05 10:00: 0.9835
2025-08-05 11:00: 0.0255
2025-08-05 11:00: 0.9745
2025-08-05 12:00: 0.0255
2025-08-05 12:00: 0.9745
2025-08-05 13:00: 0.0255
2025-08-05 13:00: 0.9745
Trade Summary: Total trades: 3, Buy volume: 28.00, Sell volume: 10.00, Average price: 0.6665, Price range: 0.0055 - 0.9970

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 570988
Question: Will Trump announce Michelle Bowman to replace Kugler?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 1555.315788
Price History:
2025-08-05 14:00: 0.0255
2025-08-05 14:00: 0.9745
2025-08-05 15:00: 0.0255
2025-08-05 15:00: 0.9745
2025-08-05 16:00: 0.0205
2025-08-05 16:00: 0.9795
2025-08-05 17:00: 0.0205
2025-08-05 17:00: 0.9795
2025-08-05 18:00: 0.0205
2025-08-05 18:00: 0.9795
2025-08-05 19:00: 0.0205
2025-08-05 19:00: 0.9795
2025-08-05 20:00: 0.0205
2025-08-05 20:00: 0.9795
2025-08-05 21:00: 0.0205
2025-08-05 21:00: 0.9795
2025-08-05 22:00: 0.0205
2025-08-05 22:00: 0.9795
2025-08-05 23:00: 0.0205
2025-08-05 23:00: 0.9795
2025-08-06 00:00: 0.0205
2025-08-06 00:00: 0.9795
2025-08-06 01:00: 0.0205
Trade Summary: Total trades: 9, Buy volume: 1544.32, Sell volume: 11.00, Average price: 0.6882, Price range: 0.0055 - 0.9990

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 570988
Question: Will Trump announce Michelle Bowman to replace Kugler?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 1555.315788
Price History:
2025-08-06 01:00: 0.9795
2025-08-06 02:00: 0.0205
2025-08-06 02:00: 0.9795
2025-08-06 03:00: 0.0205
2025-08-06 03:00: 0.9795
2025-08-06 04:00: 0.0205
2025-08-06 04:00: 0.9795
2025-08-06 05:00: 0.0205
2025-08-06 05:00: 0.9795
2025-08-06 06:00: 0.0205
2025-08-06 06:00: 0.9795
2025-08-06 07:00: 0.0205
2025-08-06 07:00: 0.9795
2025-08-06 08:00: 0.0205
2025-08-06 08:00: 0.9795
2025-08-06 09:00: 0.0205
2025-08-06 09:00: 0.9795
2025-08-06 10:00: 0.0205
2025-08-06 10:00: 0.9795
2025-08-06 11:00: 0.0205
2025-08-06 11:00: 0.9795
2025-08-06 12:00: 0.0205
2025-08-06 12:00: 0.9795
Trade Summary: Total trades: 9, Buy volume: 1544.32, Sell volume: 11.00, Average price: 0.6882, Price range: 0.0055 - 0.9990

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 570988
Question: Will Trump announce Michelle Bowman to replace Kugler?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 1555.315788
Price History:
2025-08-06 13:00: 0.0205
2025-08-06 13:00: 0.9795
2025-08-06 14:00: 0.0205
2025-08-06 14:00: 0.9795
2025-08-06 15:00: 0.0205
2025-08-06 15:00: 0.9795
2025-08-06 16:00: 0.0205
2025-08-06 16:00: 0.9795
2025-08-06 17:00: 0.0205
2025-08-06 17:00: 0.9795
2025-08-06 18:00: 0.0205
2025-08-06 18:00: 0.9795
2025-08-06 19:00: 0.0205
2025-08-06 19:00: 0.9795
2025-08-06 20:00: 0.0205
2025-08-06 20:00: 0.9795
2025-08-06 21:00: 0.0205
2025-08-06 21:00: 0.9795
2025-08-06 22:00: 0.0205
2025-08-06 22:00: 0.9795
2025-08-06 23:00: 0.0205
2025-08-06 23:00: 0.9795
2025-08-07 00:00: 0.9795
Trade Summary: Total trades: 9, Buy volume: 1544.32, Sell volume: 11.00, Average price: 0.6882, Price range: 0.0055 - 0.9990

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 570988
Question: Will Trump announce Michelle Bowman to replace Kugler?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 1555.315788
Price History:
2025-08-07 00:00: 0.0205
2025-08-07 01:00: 0.0205
2025-08-07 01:00: 0.9795
2025-08-07 02:00: 0.9795
2025-08-07 02:00: 0.0205
2025-08-07 03:00: 0.0205
2025-08-07 03:00: 0.9795
2025-08-07 04:00: 0.0205
2025-08-07 04:00: 0.9795
2025-08-07 05:00: 0.0200
2025-08-07 05:00: 0.9800
2025-08-07 06:00: 0.9800
2025-08-07 06:00: 0.0200
2025-08-07 07:00: 0.0205
2025-08-07 07:00: 0.9795
2025-08-07 08:00: 0.0205
2025-08-07 08:00: 0.9795
2025-08-07 09:00: 0.9795
2025-08-07 09:00: 0.0205
2025-08-07 10:00: 0.0205
2025-08-07 10:00: 0.9795
2025-08-07 11:00: 0.0205
2025-08-07 11:00: 0.9795
Trade Summary: Total trades: 9, Buy volume: 1544.32, Sell volume: 11.00, Average price: 0.6882, Price range: 0.0055 - 0.9990

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 570988
Question: Will Trump announce Michelle Bowman to replace Kugler?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 1555.315788
Price History:
2025-08-07 12:00: 0.9795
2025-08-07 12:00: 0.0205
2025-08-07 13:00: 0.9795
2025-08-07 13:00: 0.0205
2025-08-07 14:00: 0.9795
2025-08-07 14:00: 0.0205
2025-08-07 15:00: 0.9795
2025-08-07 15:00: 0.0205
2025-08-07 16:00: 0.0005
2025-08-07 16:00: 0.9995
2025-08-07 17:00: 0.9995
2025-08-07 17:00: 0.0005
2025-08-07 18:00: 0.9995
2025-08-07 18:00: 0.0005
2025-08-07 19:00: 0.9995
2025-08-07 19:00: 0.0005
2025-08-07 20:00: 0.9995
2025-08-07 20:00: 0.0005
2025-08-07 21:00: 0.9995
2025-08-07 21:00: 0.0005
2025-08-07 22:00: 0.0005
2025-08-07 22:00: 0.9995
2025-08-07 23:00: 0.9995
Trade Summary: Total trades: 4, Buy volume: 1510.00, Sell volume: 0.00, Average price: 0.9987, Price range: 0.9980 - 0.9990

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 570988
Question: Will Trump announce Michelle Bowman to replace Kugler?
Volume: 1555.315788
Price History:
2025-08-01 18:00: 0.4950
2025-08-01 18:00: 0.5050
2025-08-01 19:00: 0.1000
2025-08-01 19:00: 0.9000
2025-08-01 20:00: 0.1000
2025-08-01 20:00: 0.9000
2025-08-01 21:00: 0.0950
2025-08-01 21:00: 0.9050
2025-08-01 22:00: 0.0950
2025-08-01 22:00: 0.9050
2025-08-01 23:00: 0.0950
2025-08-01 23:00: 0.9050
2025-08-02 00:00: 0.0950
2025-08-02 00:00: 0.9050
2025-08-02 01:00: 0.0950
2025-08-02 01:00: 0.9050
2025-08-02 02:00: 0.0950
2025-08-02 02:00: 0.9050
2025-08-02 03:00: 0.0950
2025-08-02 03:00: 0.9050
2025-08-02 04:00: 0.0950
2025-08-02 04:00: 0.9050
2025-08-02 05:00: 0.0950
Trade Summary: Total trades: 9, Buy volume: 1544.32, Sell volume: 11.00, Average price: 0.6882, Price range: 0.0055 - 0.9990
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 570988
Question: Will Trump announce Michelle Bowman to replace Kugler?
Volume: 1555.315788
Price History:
2025-08-02 05:00: 0.9050
2025-08-02 06:00: 0.0950
2025-08-02 06:00: 0.9050
2025-08-02 07:00: 0.0950
2025-08-02 07:00: 0.9050
2025-08-02 08:00: 0.0950
2025-08-02 08:00: 0.9050
2025-08-02 09:00: 0.0950
2025-08-02 09:00: 0.9050
2025-08-02 10:00: 0.0950
2025-08-02 10:00: 0.9050
2025-08-02 11:00: 0.0950
2025-08-02 11:00: 0.9050
2025-08-02 12:00: 0.0950
2025-08-02 12:00: 0.9050
2025-08-02 13:00: 0.0950
2025-08-02 13:00: 0.9050
2025-08-02 14:00: 0.0950
2025-08-02 14:00: 0.9050
2025-08-02 15:00: 0.0950
2025-08-02 15:00: 0.9050
2025-08-02 16:00: 0.0950
2025-08-02 16:00: 0.9050
Trade Summary: Total trades: 9, Buy volume: 1544.32, Sell volume: 11.00, Average price: 0.6882, Price range: 0.0055 - 0.9990
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 570988
Question: Will Trump announce Michelle Bowman to replace Kugler?
Volume: 1555.315788
Price History:
2025-08-02 17:00: 0.0950
2025-08-02 17:00: 0.9050
2025-08-02 18:00: 0.0950
2025-08-02 18:00: 0.9050
2025-08-02 19:00: 0.0950
2025-08-02 19:00: 0.9050
2025-08-02 20:00: 0.0950
2025-08-02 20:00: 0.9050
2025-08-02 21:00: 0.0950
2025-08-02 21:00: 0.9050
2025-08-02 22:00: 0.0950
2025-08-02 22:00: 0.9050
2025-08-02 23:00: 0.0950
2025-08-02 23:00: 0.9050
2025-08-03 00:00: 0.0950
2025-08-03 00:00: 0.9050
2025-08-03 01:00: 0.0950
2025-08-03 01:00: 0.9050
2025-08-03 02:00: 0.0950
2025-08-03 02:00: 0.9050
2025-08-03 03:00: 0.0950
2025-08-03 03:00: 0.9050
2025-08-03 04:00: 0.0950
Trade Summary: Total trades: 9, Buy volume: 1544.32, Sell volume: 11.00, Average price: 0.6882, Price range: 0.0055 - 0.9990
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 570988
Question: Will Trump announce Michelle Bowman to replace Kugler?
Volume: 1555.315788
Price History:
2025-08-03 04:00: 0.9050
2025-08-03 05:00: 0.0950
2025-08-03 05:00: 0.9050
2025-08-03 06:00: 0.0900
2025-08-03 06:00: 0.9100
2025-08-03 07:00: 0.0800
2025-08-03 07:00: 0.9200
2025-08-03 08:00: 0.0800
2025-08-03 08:00: 0.9200
2025-08-03 09:00: 0.0800
2025-08-03 09:00: 0.9200
2025-08-03 10:00: 0.0800
2025-08-03 10:00: 0.9200
2025-08-03 11:00: 0.0800
2025-08-03 11:00: 0.9200
2025-08-03 12:00: 0.0950
2025-08-03 12:00: 0.9050
2025-08-03 13:00: 0.0950
2025-08-03 13:00: 0.9050
2025-08-03 14:00: 0.0950
2025-08-03 14:00: 0.9050
2025-08-03 15:00: 0.0950
2025-08-03 15:00: 0.9050
Trade Summary: Total trades: 2, Buy volume: 6.32, Sell volume: 1.00, Average price: 0.1000, Price range: 0.0100 - 0.1900
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 570988
Question: Will Trump announce Michelle Bowman to replace Kugler?
Volume: 1555.315788
Price History:
2025-08-03 16:00: 0.0950
2025-08-03 16:00: 0.9050
2025-08-03 17:00: 0.0950
2025-08-03 17:00: 0.9050
2025-08-03 18:00: 0.0950
2025-08-03 18:00: 0.9050
2025-08-03 19:00: 0.0950
2025-08-03 19:00: 0.9050
2025-08-03 20:00: 0.0950
2025-08-03 20:00: 0.9050
2025-08-03 21:00: 0.0950
2025-08-03 21:00: 0.9050
2025-08-03 22:00: 0.0950
2025-08-03 22:00: 0.9050
2025-08-03 23:00: 0.0950
2025-08-03 23:00: 0.9050
2025-08-04 00:00: 0.0950
2025-08-04 00:00: 0.9050
2025-08-04 01:00: 0.0950
2025-08-04 01:00: 0.9050
2025-08-04 02:00: 0.0950
2025-08-04 02:00: 0.9050
2025-08-04 03:00: 0.0950
Trade Summary: Total trades: 9, Buy volume: 1544.32, Sell volume: 11.00, Average price: 0.6882, Price range: 0.0055 - 0.9990
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 570988
Question: Will Trump announce Michelle Bowman to replace Kugler?
Volume: 1555.315788
Price History:
2025-08-04 03:00: 0.9050
2025-08-04 04:00: 0.0950
2025-08-04 04:00: 0.9050
2025-08-04 05:00: 0.0950
2025-08-04 05:00: 0.9050
2025-08-04 06:00: 0.0950
2025-08-04 06:00: 0.9050
2025-08-04 07:00: 0.0950
2025-08-04 07:00: 0.9050
2025-08-04 08:00: 0.0950
2025-08-04 08:00: 0.9050
2025-08-04 09:00: 0.0500
2025-08-04 09:00: 0.9500
2025-08-04 10:00: 0.1000
2025-08-04 10:00: 0.9000
2025-08-04 11:00: 0.1000
2025-08-04 11:00: 0.9000
2025-08-04 12:00: 0.1000
2025-08-04 12:00: 0.9000
2025-08-04 13:00: 0.1000
2025-08-04 13:00: 0.9000
2025-08-04 14:00: 0.1000
2025-08-04 14:00: 0.9000
Trade Summary: Total trades: 9, Buy volume: 1544.32, Sell volume: 11.00, Average price: 0.6882, Price range: 0.0055 - 0.9990
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 570988
Question: Will Trump announce Michelle Bowman to replace Kugler?
Volume: 1555.315788
Price History:
2025-08-04 15:00: 0.1000
2025-08-04 15:00: 0.9000
2025-08-04 16:00: 0.0850
2025-08-04 16:00: 0.9150
2025-08-04 17:00: 0.0450
2025-08-04 17:00: 0.9550
2025-08-04 18:00: 0.0550
2025-08-04 18:00: 0.9450
2025-08-04 19:00: 0.0500
2025-08-04 19:00: 0.9500
2025-08-04 20:00: 0.0400
2025-08-04 20:00: 0.9600
2025-08-04 21:00: 0.0400
2025-08-04 21:00: 0.9600
2025-08-04 22:00: 0.0350
2025-08-04 22:00: 0.9650
2025-08-04 23:00: 0.0400
2025-08-04 23:00: 0.9600
2025-08-05 00:00: 0.0400
2025-08-05 00:00: 0.9600
2025-08-05 01:00: 0.0400
2025-08-05 01:00: 0.9600
2025-08-05 02:00: 0.0400
Trade Summary: Total trades: 9, Buy volume: 1544.32, Sell volume: 11.00, Average price: 0.6882, Price range: 0.0055 - 0.9990
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 570988
Question: Will Trump announce Michelle Bowman to replace Kugler?
Volume: 1555.315788
Price History:
2025-08-05 02:00: 0.9600
2025-08-05 03:00: 0.0400
2025-08-05 03:00: 0.9600
2025-08-05 04:00: 0.0400
2025-08-05 04:00: 0.9600
2025-08-05 05:00: 0.0400
2025-08-05 05:00: 0.9600
2025-08-05 06:00: 0.0360
2025-08-05 06:00: 0.9640
2025-08-05 07:00: 0.0365
2025-08-05 07:00: 0.9635
2025-08-05 08:00: 0.0365
2025-08-05 08:00: 0.9635
2025-08-05 09:00: 0.0360
2025-08-05 09:00: 0.9640
2025-08-05 10:00: 0.0165
2025-08-05 10:00: 0.9835
2025-08-05 11:00: 0.0255
2025-08-05 11:00: 0.9745
2025-08-05 12:00: 0.0255
2025-08-05 12:00: 0.9745
2025-08-05 13:00: 0.0255
2025-08-05 13:00: 0.9745
Trade Summary: Total trades: 3, Buy volume: 28.00, Sell volume: 10.00, Average price: 0.6665, Price range: 0.0055 - 0.9970
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 570988
Question: Will Trump announce Michelle Bowman to replace Kugler?
Volume: 1555.315788
Price History:
2025-08-05 14:00: 0.0255
2025-08-05 14:00: 0.9745
2025-08-05 15:00: 0.0255
2025-08-05 15:00: 0.9745
2025-08-05 16:00: 0.0205
2025-08-05 16:00: 0.9795
2025-08-05 17:00: 0.0205
2025-08-05 17:00: 0.9795
2025-08-05 18:00: 0.0205
2025-08-05 18:00: 0.9795
2025-08-05 19:00: 0.0205
2025-08-05 19:00: 0.9795
2025-08-05 20:00: 0.0205
2025-08-05 20:00: 0.9795
2025-08-05 21:00: 0.0205
2025-08-05 21:00: 0.9795
2025-08-05 22:00: 0.0205
2025-08-05 22:00: 0.9795
2025-08-05 23:00: 0.0205
2025-08-05 23:00: 0.9795
2025-08-06 00:00: 0.0205
2025-08-06 00:00: 0.9795
2025-08-06 01:00: 0.0205
Trade Summary: Total trades: 9, Buy volume: 1544.32, Sell volume: 11.00, Average price: 0.6882, Price range: 0.0055 - 0.9990
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 570988
Question: Will Trump announce Michelle Bowman to replace Kugler?
Volume: 1555.315788
Price History:
2025-08-06 01:00: 0.9795
2025-08-06 02:00: 0.0205
2025-08-06 02:00: 0.9795
2025-08-06 03:00: 0.0205
2025-08-06 03:00: 0.9795
2025-08-06 04:00: 0.0205
2025-08-06 04:00: 0.9795
2025-08-06 05:00: 0.0205
2025-08-06 05:00: 0.9795
2025-08-06 06:00: 0.0205
2025-08-06 06:00: 0.9795
2025-08-06 07:00: 0.0205
2025-08-06 07:00: 0.9795
2025-08-06 08:00: 0.0205
2025-08-06 08:00: 0.9795
2025-08-06 09:00: 0.0205
2025-08-06 09:00: 0.9795
2025-08-06 10:00: 0.0205
2025-08-06 10:00: 0.9795
2025-08-06 11:00: 0.0205
2025-08-06 11:00: 0.9795
2025-08-06 12:00: 0.0205
2025-08-06 12:00: 0.9795
Trade Summary: Total trades: 9, Buy volume: 1544.32, Sell volume: 11.00, Average price: 0.6882, Price range: 0.0055 - 0.9990
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 570988
Question: Will Trump announce Michelle Bowman to replace Kugler?
Volume: 1555.315788
Price History:
2025-08-06 13:00: 0.0205
2025-08-06 13:00: 0.9795
2025-08-06 14:00: 0.0205
2025-08-06 14:00: 0.9795
2025-08-06 15:00: 0.0205
2025-08-06 15:00: 0.9795
2025-08-06 16:00: 0.0205
2025-08-06 16:00: 0.9795
2025-08-06 17:00: 0.0205
2025-08-06 17:00: 0.9795
2025-08-06 18:00: 0.0205
2025-08-06 18:00: 0.9795
2025-08-06 19:00: 0.0205
2025-08-06 19:00: 0.9795
2025-08-06 20:00: 0.0205
2025-08-06 20:00: 0.9795
2025-08-06 21:00: 0.0205
2025-08-06 21:00: 0.9795
2025-08-06 22:00: 0.0205
2025-08-06 22:00: 0.9795
2025-08-06 23:00: 0.0205
2025-08-06 23:00: 0.9795
2025-08-07 00:00: 0.9795
Trade Summary: Total trades: 9, Buy volume: 1544.32, Sell volume: 11.00, Average price: 0.6882, Price range: 0.0055 - 0.9990
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 570988
Question: Will Trump announce Michelle Bowman to replace Kugler?
Volume: 1555.315788
Price History:
2025-08-07 00:00: 0.0205
2025-08-07 01:00: 0.0205
2025-08-07 01:00: 0.9795
2025-08-07 02:00: 0.9795
2025-08-07 02:00: 0.0205
2025-08-07 03:00: 0.0205
2025-08-07 03:00: 0.9795
2025-08-07 04:00: 0.0205
2025-08-07 04:00: 0.9795
2025-08-07 05:00: 0.0200
2025-08-07 05:00: 0.9800
2025-08-07 06:00: 0.9800
2025-08-07 06:00: 0.0200
2025-08-07 07:00: 0.0205
2025-08-07 07:00: 0.9795
2025-08-07 08:00: 0.0205
2025-08-07 08:00: 0.9795
2025-08-07 09:00: 0.9795
2025-08-07 09:00: 0.0205
2025-08-07 10:00: 0.0205
2025-08-07 10:00: 0.9795
2025-08-07 11:00: 0.0205
2025-08-07 11:00: 0.9795
Trade Summary: Total trades: 9, Buy volume: 1544.32, Sell volume: 11.00, Average price: 0.6882, Price range: 0.0055 - 0.9990
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 570988
Question: Will Trump announce Michelle Bowman to replace Kugler?
Volume: 1555.315788
Price History:
2025-08-07 12:00: 0.9795
2025-08-07 12:00: 0.0205
2025-08-07 13:00: 0.9795
2025-08-07 13:00: 0.0205
2025-08-07 14:00: 0.9795
2025-08-07 14:00: 0.0205
2025-08-07 15:00: 0.9795
2025-08-07 15:00: 0.0205
2025-08-07 16:00: 0.0005
2025-08-07 16:00: 0.9995
2025-08-07 17:00: 0.9995
2025-08-07 17:00: 0.0005
2025-08-07 18:00: 0.9995
2025-08-07 18:00: 0.0005
2025-08-07 19:00: 0.9995
2025-08-07 19:00: 0.0005
2025-08-07 20:00: 0.9995
2025-08-07 20:00: 0.0005
2025-08-07 21:00: 0.9995
2025-08-07 21:00: 0.0005
2025-08-07 22:00: 0.0005
2025-08-07 22:00: 0.9995
2025-08-07 23:00: 0.9995
Trade Summary: Total trades: 4, Buy volume: 1510.00, Sell volume: 0.00, Average price: 0.9987, Price range: 0.9980 - 0.9990
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 570989
Question: Will Trump announce Roger W. Ferguson Jr. to replace Kugler?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 1769.0
Price History:
2025-08-01 18:00: 0.4950
2025-08-01 18:00: 0.5050
2025-08-01 19:00: 0.0500
2025-08-01 19:00: 0.9500
2025-08-01 20:00: 0.0500
2025-08-01 20:00: 0.9500
2025-08-01 21:00: 0.0450
2025-08-01 21:00: 0.9550
2025-08-01 22:00: 0.0450
2025-08-01 22:00: 0.9550
2025-08-01 23:00: 0.0450
2025-08-01 23:00: 0.9550
2025-08-02 00:00: 0.0450
2025-08-02 00:00: 0.9550
2025-08-02 01:00: 0.0450
2025-08-02 01:00: 0.9550
2025-08-02 02:00: 0.0450
2025-08-02 02:00: 0.9550
2025-08-02 03:00: 0.0450
2025-08-02 03:00: 0.9550
2025-08-02 04:00: 0.0450
2025-08-02 04:00: 0.9550
2025-08-02 05:00: 0.0450
Trade Summary: Total trades: 6, Buy volume: 1759.00, Sell volume: 10.00, Average price: 0.8325, Price range: 0.0030 - 0.9990

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 570989
Question: Will Trump announce Roger W. Ferguson Jr. to replace Kugler?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 1769.0
Price History:
2025-08-02 05:00: 0.9550
2025-08-02 06:00: 0.0450
2025-08-02 06:00: 0.9550
2025-08-02 07:00: 0.0450
2025-08-02 07:00: 0.9550
2025-08-02 08:00: 0.0450
2025-08-02 08:00: 0.9550
2025-08-02 09:00: 0.0450
2025-08-02 09:00: 0.9550
2025-08-02 10:00: 0.0450
2025-08-02 10:00: 0.9550
2025-08-02 11:00: 0.0450
2025-08-02 11:00: 0.9550
2025-08-02 12:00: 0.0450
2025-08-02 12:00: 0.9550
2025-08-02 13:00: 0.0450
2025-08-02 13:00: 0.9550
2025-08-02 14:00: 0.0450
2025-08-02 14:00: 0.9550
2025-08-02 15:00: 0.0450
2025-08-02 15:00: 0.9550
2025-08-02 16:00: 0.0450
2025-08-02 16:00: 0.9550
Trade Summary: Total trades: 6, Buy volume: 1759.00, Sell volume: 10.00, Average price: 0.8325, Price range: 0.0030 - 0.9990

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 570989
Question: Will Trump announce Roger W. Ferguson Jr. to replace Kugler?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 1769.0
Price History:
2025-08-02 17:00: 0.0450
2025-08-02 17:00: 0.9550
2025-08-02 18:00: 0.0450
2025-08-02 18:00: 0.9550
2025-08-02 19:00: 0.0450
2025-08-02 19:00: 0.9550
2025-08-02 20:00: 0.0450
2025-08-02 20:00: 0.9550
2025-08-02 21:00: 0.0450
2025-08-02 21:00: 0.9550
2025-08-02 22:00: 0.0450
2025-08-02 22:00: 0.9550
2025-08-02 23:00: 0.0450
2025-08-02 23:00: 0.9550
2025-08-03 00:00: 0.0450
2025-08-03 00:00: 0.9550
2025-08-03 01:00: 0.0450
2025-08-03 01:00: 0.9550
2025-08-03 02:00: 0.0450
2025-08-03 02:00: 0.9550
2025-08-03 03:00: 0.0450
2025-08-03 03:00: 0.9550
2025-08-03 04:00: 0.0450
Trade Summary: Total trades: 6, Buy volume: 1759.00, Sell volume: 10.00, Average price: 0.8325, Price range: 0.0030 - 0.9990

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 570989
Question: Will Trump announce Roger W. Ferguson Jr. to replace Kugler?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 1769.0
Price History:
2025-08-03 04:00: 0.9550
2025-08-03 05:00: 0.0450
2025-08-03 05:00: 0.9550
2025-08-03 06:00: 0.0450
2025-08-03 06:00: 0.9550
2025-08-03 07:00: 0.0450
2025-08-03 07:00: 0.9550
2025-08-03 08:00: 0.0450
2025-08-03 08:00: 0.9550
2025-08-03 09:00: 0.0450
2025-08-03 09:00: 0.9550
2025-08-03 10:00: 0.0450
2025-08-03 10:00: 0.9550
2025-08-03 11:00: 0.0450
2025-08-03 11:00: 0.9550
2025-08-03 12:00: 0.0450
2025-08-03 12:00: 0.9550
2025-08-03 13:00: 0.0450
2025-08-03 13:00: 0.9550
2025-08-03 14:00: 0.0450
2025-08-03 14:00: 0.9550
2025-08-03 15:00: 0.0450
2025-08-03 15:00: 0.9550
Trade Summary: Total trades: 6, Buy volume: 1759.00, Sell volume: 10.00, Average price: 0.8325, Price range: 0.0030 - 0.9990

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 570989
Question: Will Trump announce Roger W. Ferguson Jr. to replace Kugler?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 1769.0
Price History:
2025-08-03 16:00: 0.0450
2025-08-03 16:00: 0.9550
2025-08-03 17:00: 0.0450
2025-08-03 17:00: 0.9550
2025-08-03 18:00: 0.0450
2025-08-03 18:00: 0.9550
2025-08-03 19:00: 0.0500
2025-08-03 19:00: 0.9500
2025-08-03 20:00: 0.0500
2025-08-03 20:00: 0.9500
2025-08-03 21:00: 0.0500
2025-08-03 21:00: 0.9500
2025-08-03 22:00: 0.0500
2025-08-03 22:00: 0.9500
2025-08-03 23:00: 0.0500
2025-08-03 23:00: 0.9500
2025-08-04 00:00: 0.0500
2025-08-04 00:00: 0.9500
2025-08-04 01:00: 0.0500
2025-08-04 01:00: 0.9500
2025-08-04 02:00: 0.0500
2025-08-04 02:00: 0.9500
2025-08-04 03:00: 0.0500
Trade Summary: Total trades: 6, Buy volume: 1759.00, Sell volume: 10.00, Average price: 0.8325, Price range: 0.0030 - 0.9990

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 570989
Question: Will Trump announce Roger W. Ferguson Jr. to replace Kugler?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 1769.0
Price History:
2025-08-04 03:00: 0.9500
2025-08-04 04:00: 0.0500
2025-08-04 04:00: 0.9500
2025-08-04 05:00: 0.0500
2025-08-04 05:00: 0.9500
2025-08-04 06:00: 0.0500
2025-08-04 06:00: 0.9500
2025-08-04 07:00: 0.0500
2025-08-04 07:00: 0.9500
2025-08-04 08:00: 0.0500
2025-08-04 08:00: 0.9500
2025-08-04 09:00: 0.0500
2025-08-04 09:00: 0.9500
2025-08-04 10:00: 0.0400
2025-08-04 10:00: 0.9600
2025-08-04 11:00: 0.0400
2025-08-04 11:00: 0.9600
2025-08-04 12:00: 0.0400
2025-08-04 12:00: 0.9600
2025-08-04 13:00: 0.0400
2025-08-04 13:00: 0.9600
2025-08-04 14:00: 0.1300
2025-08-04 14:00: 0.8700
Trade Summary: Total trades: 6, Buy volume: 1759.00, Sell volume: 10.00, Average price: 0.8325, Price range: 0.0030 - 0.9990

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 570989
Question: Will Trump announce Roger W. Ferguson Jr. to replace Kugler?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 1769.0
Price History:
2025-08-04 15:00: 0.1300
2025-08-04 15:00: 0.8700
2025-08-04 16:00: 0.0850
2025-08-04 16:00: 0.9150
2025-08-04 17:00: 0.0450
2025-08-04 17:00: 0.9550
2025-08-04 18:00: 0.0550
2025-08-04 18:00: 0.9450
2025-08-04 19:00: 0.0500
2025-08-04 19:00: 0.9500
2025-08-04 20:00: 0.0400
2025-08-04 20:00: 0.9600
2025-08-04 21:00: 0.0400
2025-08-04 21:00: 0.9600
2025-08-04 22:00: 0.0325
2025-08-04 22:00: 0.9675
2025-08-04 23:00: 0.0400
2025-08-04 23:00: 0.9600
2025-08-05 00:00: 0.0355
2025-08-05 00:00: 0.9645
2025-08-05 01:00: 0.0365
2025-08-05 01:00: 0.9635
2025-08-05 02:00: 0.0365
Trade Summary: Total trades: 6, Buy volume: 1759.00, Sell volume: 10.00, Average price: 0.8325, Price range: 0.0030 - 0.9990

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 570989
Question: Will Trump announce Roger W. Ferguson Jr. to replace Kugler?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 1769.0
Price History:
2025-08-05 02:00: 0.9635
2025-08-05 03:00: 0.0365
2025-08-05 03:00: 0.9635
2025-08-05 04:00: 0.0365
2025-08-05 04:00: 0.9635
2025-08-05 05:00: 0.0365
2025-08-05 05:00: 0.9635
2025-08-05 06:00: 0.0360
2025-08-05 06:00: 0.9640
2025-08-05 07:00: 0.0360
2025-08-05 07:00: 0.9640
2025-08-05 08:00: 0.0355
2025-08-05 08:00: 0.9645
2025-08-05 09:00: 0.0310
2025-08-05 09:00: 0.9690
2025-08-05 10:00: 0.0160
2025-08-05 10:00: 0.9840
2025-08-05 11:00: 0.0105
2025-08-05 11:00: 0.9895
2025-08-05 12:00: 0.0105
2025-08-05 12:00: 0.9895
2025-08-05 13:00: 0.0105
2025-08-05 13:00: 0.9895
Trade Summary: Total trades: 2, Buy volume: 20.00, Sell volume: 10.00, Average price: 0.5001, Price range: 0.0030 - 0.9971

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 570989
Question: Will Trump announce Roger W. Ferguson Jr. to replace Kugler?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 1769.0
Price History:
2025-08-05 14:00: 0.0105
2025-08-05 14:00: 0.9895
2025-08-05 15:00: 0.0105
2025-08-05 15:00: 0.9895
2025-08-05 16:00: 0.0105
2025-08-05 16:00: 0.9895
2025-08-05 17:00: 0.0105
2025-08-05 17:00: 0.9895
2025-08-05 18:00: 0.0105
2025-08-05 18:00: 0.9895
2025-08-05 19:00: 0.0105
2025-08-05 19:00: 0.9895
2025-08-05 20:00: 0.0105
2025-08-05 20:00: 0.9895
2025-08-05 21:00: 0.0105
2025-08-05 21:00: 0.9895
2025-08-05 22:00: 0.0105
2025-08-05 22:00: 0.9895
2025-08-05 23:00: 0.0105
2025-08-05 23:00: 0.9895
2025-08-06 00:00: 0.0105
2025-08-06 00:00: 0.9895
2025-08-06 01:00: 0.0105
Trade Summary: Total trades: 6, Buy volume: 1759.00, Sell volume: 10.00, Average price: 0.8325, Price range: 0.0030 - 0.9990

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 570989
Question: Will Trump announce Roger W. Ferguson Jr. to replace Kugler?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 1769.0
Price History:
2025-08-06 01:00: 0.9895
2025-08-06 02:00: 0.0105
2025-08-06 02:00: 0.9895
2025-08-06 03:00: 0.0105
2025-08-06 03:00: 0.9895
2025-08-06 04:00: 0.0105
2025-08-06 04:00: 0.9895
2025-08-06 05:00: 0.0105
2025-08-06 05:00: 0.9895
2025-08-06 06:00: 0.0105
2025-08-06 06:00: 0.9895
2025-08-06 07:00: 0.0105
2025-08-06 07:00: 0.9895
2025-08-06 08:00: 0.0105
2025-08-06 08:00: 0.9895
2025-08-06 09:00: 0.0105
2025-08-06 09:00: 0.9895
2025-08-06 10:00: 0.0105
2025-08-06 10:00: 0.9895
2025-08-06 11:00: 0.0105
2025-08-06 11:00: 0.9895
2025-08-06 12:00: 0.0105
2025-08-06 12:00: 0.9895
Trade Summary: Total trades: 6, Buy volume: 1759.00, Sell volume: 10.00, Average price: 0.8325, Price range: 0.0030 - 0.9990

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 570989
Question: Will Trump announce Roger W. Ferguson Jr. to replace Kugler?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 1769.0
Price History:
2025-08-06 13:00: 0.0105
2025-08-06 13:00: 0.9895
2025-08-06 14:00: 0.0105
2025-08-06 14:00: 0.9895
2025-08-06 15:00: 0.0105
2025-08-06 15:00: 0.9895
2025-08-06 16:00: 0.9895
2025-08-06 16:00: 0.0105
2025-08-06 17:00: 0.9895
2025-08-06 17:00: 0.0105
2025-08-06 18:00: 0.9895
2025-08-06 18:00: 0.0105
2025-08-06 19:00: 0.9895
2025-08-06 19:00: 0.0105
2025-08-06 20:00: 0.9895
2025-08-06 20:00: 0.0105
2025-08-06 21:00: 0.9895
2025-08-06 21:00: 0.0105
2025-08-06 22:00: 0.9895
2025-08-06 22:00: 0.0105
2025-08-06 23:00: 0.0105
2025-08-06 23:00: 0.9895
2025-08-07 00:00: 0.0105
Trade Summary: Total trades: 6, Buy volume: 1759.00, Sell volume: 10.00, Average price: 0.8325, Price range: 0.0030 - 0.9990

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 570989
Question: Will Trump announce Roger W. Ferguson Jr. to replace Kugler?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 1769.0
Price History:
2025-08-07 00:00: 0.9895
2025-08-07 01:00: 0.9895
2025-08-07 01:00: 0.0105
2025-08-07 02:00: 0.0105
2025-08-07 02:00: 0.9895
2025-08-07 03:00: 0.0105
2025-08-07 03:00: 0.9895
2025-08-07 04:00: 0.9895
2025-08-07 04:00: 0.0105
2025-08-07 05:00: 0.9900
2025-08-07 05:00: 0.0100
2025-08-07 06:00: 0.9900
2025-08-07 06:00: 0.0100
2025-08-07 07:00: 0.9895
2025-08-07 07:00: 0.0105
2025-08-07 08:00: 0.9895
2025-08-07 08:00: 0.0105
2025-08-07 09:00: 0.9895
2025-08-07 09:00: 0.0105
2025-08-07 10:00: 0.9895
2025-08-07 10:00: 0.0105
2025-08-07 11:00: 0.0105
2025-08-07 11:00: 0.9895
Trade Summary: Total trades: 6, Buy volume: 1759.00, Sell volume: 10.00, Average price: 0.8325, Price range: 0.0030 - 0.9990

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 570989
Question: Will Trump announce Roger W. Ferguson Jr. to replace Kugler?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 1769.0
Price History:
2025-08-07 12:00: 0.9895
2025-08-07 12:00: 0.0105
2025-08-07 13:00: 0.9895
2025-08-07 13:00: 0.0105
2025-08-07 14:00: 0.9895
2025-08-07 14:00: 0.0105
2025-08-07 15:00: 0.9895
2025-08-07 15:00: 0.0105
2025-08-07 16:00: 0.0005
2025-08-07 16:00: 0.9995
2025-08-07 17:00: 0.9995
2025-08-07 17:00: 0.0005
2025-08-07 18:00: 0.9995
2025-08-07 18:00: 0.0005
2025-08-07 19:00: 0.9995
2025-08-07 19:00: 0.0005
2025-08-07 20:00: 0.9995
2025-08-07 20:00: 0.0005
2025-08-07 21:00: 0.9995
2025-08-07 21:00: 0.0005
2025-08-07 22:00: 0.0005
2025-08-07 22:00: 0.9995
2025-08-07 23:00: 0.0005
Trade Summary: Total trades: 4, Buy volume: 1739.00, Sell volume: 0.00, Average price: 0.9987, Price range: 0.9980 - 0.9990

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 570989
Question: Will Trump announce Roger W. Ferguson Jr. to replace Kugler?
Volume: 1769.0
Price History:
2025-08-01 18:00: 0.4950
2025-08-01 18:00: 0.5050
2025-08-01 19:00: 0.0500
2025-08-01 19:00: 0.9500
2025-08-01 20:00: 0.0500
2025-08-01 20:00: 0.9500
2025-08-01 21:00: 0.0450
2025-08-01 21:00: 0.9550
2025-08-01 22:00: 0.0450
2025-08-01 22:00: 0.9550
2025-08-01 23:00: 0.0450
2025-08-01 23:00: 0.9550
2025-08-02 00:00: 0.0450
2025-08-02 00:00: 0.9550
2025-08-02 01:00: 0.0450
2025-08-02 01:00: 0.9550
2025-08-02 02:00: 0.0450
2025-08-02 02:00: 0.9550
2025-08-02 03:00: 0.0450
2025-08-02 03:00: 0.9550
2025-08-02 04:00: 0.0450
2025-08-02 04:00: 0.9550
2025-08-02 05:00: 0.0450
Trade Summary: Total trades: 6, Buy volume: 1759.00, Sell volume: 10.00, Average price: 0.8325, Price range: 0.0030 - 0.9990
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 570989
Question: Will Trump announce Roger W. Ferguson Jr. to replace Kugler?
Volume: 1769.0
Price History:
2025-08-02 05:00: 0.9550
2025-08-02 06:00: 0.0450
2025-08-02 06:00: 0.9550
2025-08-02 07:00: 0.0450
2025-08-02 07:00: 0.9550
2025-08-02 08:00: 0.0450
2025-08-02 08:00: 0.9550
2025-08-02 09:00: 0.0450
2025-08-02 09:00: 0.9550
2025-08-02 10:00: 0.0450
2025-08-02 10:00: 0.9550
2025-08-02 11:00: 0.0450
2025-08-02 11:00: 0.9550
2025-08-02 12:00: 0.0450
2025-08-02 12:00: 0.9550
2025-08-02 13:00: 0.0450
2025-08-02 13:00: 0.9550
2025-08-02 14:00: 0.0450
2025-08-02 14:00: 0.9550
2025-08-02 15:00: 0.0450
2025-08-02 15:00: 0.9550
2025-08-02 16:00: 0.0450
2025-08-02 16:00: 0.9550
Trade Summary: Total trades: 6, Buy volume: 1759.00, Sell volume: 10.00, Average price: 0.8325, Price range: 0.0030 - 0.9990
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 570989
Question: Will Trump announce Roger W. Ferguson Jr. to replace Kugler?
Volume: 1769.0
Price History:
2025-08-02 17:00: 0.0450
2025-08-02 17:00: 0.9550
2025-08-02 18:00: 0.0450
2025-08-02 18:00: 0.9550
2025-08-02 19:00: 0.0450
2025-08-02 19:00: 0.9550
2025-08-02 20:00: 0.0450
2025-08-02 20:00: 0.9550
2025-08-02 21:00: 0.0450
2025-08-02 21:00: 0.9550
2025-08-02 22:00: 0.0450
2025-08-02 22:00: 0.9550
2025-08-02 23:00: 0.0450
2025-08-02 23:00: 0.9550
2025-08-03 00:00: 0.0450
2025-08-03 00:00: 0.9550
2025-08-03 01:00: 0.0450
2025-08-03 01:00: 0.9550
2025-08-03 02:00: 0.0450
2025-08-03 02:00: 0.9550
2025-08-03 03:00: 0.0450
2025-08-03 03:00: 0.9550
2025-08-03 04:00: 0.0450
Trade Summary: Total trades: 6, Buy volume: 1759.00, Sell volume: 10.00, Average price: 0.8325, Price range: 0.0030 - 0.9990
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 570989
Question: Will Trump announce Roger W. Ferguson Jr. to replace Kugler?
Volume: 1769.0
Price History:
2025-08-03 04:00: 0.9550
2025-08-03 05:00: 0.0450
2025-08-03 05:00: 0.9550
2025-08-03 06:00: 0.0450
2025-08-03 06:00: 0.9550
2025-08-03 07:00: 0.0450
2025-08-03 07:00: 0.9550
2025-08-03 08:00: 0.0450
2025-08-03 08:00: 0.9550
2025-08-03 09:00: 0.0450
2025-08-03 09:00: 0.9550
2025-08-03 10:00: 0.0450
2025-08-03 10:00: 0.9550
2025-08-03 11:00: 0.0450
2025-08-03 11:00: 0.9550
2025-08-03 12:00: 0.0450
2025-08-03 12:00: 0.9550
2025-08-03 13:00: 0.0450
2025-08-03 13:00: 0.9550
2025-08-03 14:00: 0.0450
2025-08-03 14:00: 0.9550
2025-08-03 15:00: 0.0450
2025-08-03 15:00: 0.9550
Trade Summary: Total trades: 6, Buy volume: 1759.00, Sell volume: 10.00, Average price: 0.8325, Price range: 0.0030 - 0.9990
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 570989
Question: Will Trump announce Roger W. Ferguson Jr. to replace Kugler?
Volume: 1769.0
Price History:
2025-08-03 16:00: 0.0450
2025-08-03 16:00: 0.9550
2025-08-03 17:00: 0.0450
2025-08-03 17:00: 0.9550
2025-08-03 18:00: 0.0450
2025-08-03 18:00: 0.9550
2025-08-03 19:00: 0.0500
2025-08-03 19:00: 0.9500
2025-08-03 20:00: 0.0500
2025-08-03 20:00: 0.9500
2025-08-03 21:00: 0.0500
2025-08-03 21:00: 0.9500
2025-08-03 22:00: 0.0500
2025-08-03 22:00: 0.9500
2025-08-03 23:00: 0.0500
2025-08-03 23:00: 0.9500
2025-08-04 00:00: 0.0500
2025-08-04 00:00: 0.9500
2025-08-04 01:00: 0.0500
2025-08-04 01:00: 0.9500
2025-08-04 02:00: 0.0500
2025-08-04 02:00: 0.9500
2025-08-04 03:00: 0.0500
Trade Summary: Total trades: 6, Buy volume: 1759.00, Sell volume: 10.00, Average price: 0.8325, Price range: 0.0030 - 0.9990
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 570989
Question: Will Trump announce Roger W. Ferguson Jr. to replace Kugler?
Volume: 1769.0
Price History:
2025-08-04 03:00: 0.9500
2025-08-04 04:00: 0.0500
2025-08-04 04:00: 0.9500
2025-08-04 05:00: 0.0500
2025-08-04 05:00: 0.9500
2025-08-04 06:00: 0.0500
2025-08-04 06:00: 0.9500
2025-08-04 07:00: 0.0500
2025-08-04 07:00: 0.9500
2025-08-04 08:00: 0.0500
2025-08-04 08:00: 0.9500
2025-08-04 09:00: 0.0500
2025-08-04 09:00: 0.9500
2025-08-04 10:00: 0.0400
2025-08-04 10:00: 0.9600
2025-08-04 11:00: 0.0400
2025-08-04 11:00: 0.9600
2025-08-04 12:00: 0.0400
2025-08-04 12:00: 0.9600
2025-08-04 13:00: 0.0400
2025-08-04 13:00: 0.9600
2025-08-04 14:00: 0.1300
2025-08-04 14:00: 0.8700
Trade Summary: Total trades: 6, Buy volume: 1759.00, Sell volume: 10.00, Average price: 0.8325, Price range: 0.0030 - 0.9990
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 570989
Question: Will Trump announce Roger W. Ferguson Jr. to replace Kugler?
Volume: 1769.0
Price History:
2025-08-04 15:00: 0.1300
2025-08-04 15:00: 0.8700
2025-08-04 16:00: 0.0850
2025-08-04 16:00: 0.9150
2025-08-04 17:00: 0.0450
2025-08-04 17:00: 0.9550
2025-08-04 18:00: 0.0550
2025-08-04 18:00: 0.9450
2025-08-04 19:00: 0.0500
2025-08-04 19:00: 0.9500
2025-08-04 20:00: 0.0400
2025-08-04 20:00: 0.9600
2025-08-04 21:00: 0.0400
2025-08-04 21:00: 0.9600
2025-08-04 22:00: 0.0325
2025-08-04 22:00: 0.9675
2025-08-04 23:00: 0.0400
2025-08-04 23:00: 0.9600
2025-08-05 00:00: 0.0355
2025-08-05 00:00: 0.9645
2025-08-05 01:00: 0.0365
2025-08-05 01:00: 0.9635
2025-08-05 02:00: 0.0365
Trade Summary: Total trades: 6, Buy volume: 1759.00, Sell volume: 10.00, Average price: 0.8325, Price range: 0.0030 - 0.9990
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 570989
Question: Will Trump announce Roger W. Ferguson Jr. to replace Kugler?
Volume: 1769.0
Price History:
2025-08-05 02:00: 0.9635
2025-08-05 03:00: 0.0365
2025-08-05 03:00: 0.9635
2025-08-05 04:00: 0.0365
2025-08-05 04:00: 0.9635
2025-08-05 05:00: 0.0365
2025-08-05 05:00: 0.9635
2025-08-05 06:00: 0.0360
2025-08-05 06:00: 0.9640
2025-08-05 07:00: 0.0360
2025-08-05 07:00: 0.9640
2025-08-05 08:00: 0.0355
2025-08-05 08:00: 0.9645
2025-08-05 09:00: 0.0310
2025-08-05 09:00: 0.9690
2025-08-05 10:00: 0.0160
2025-08-05 10:00: 0.9840
2025-08-05 11:00: 0.0105
2025-08-05 11:00: 0.9895
2025-08-05 12:00: 0.0105
2025-08-05 12:00: 0.9895
2025-08-05 13:00: 0.0105
2025-08-05 13:00: 0.9895
Trade Summary: Total trades: 2, Buy volume: 20.00, Sell volume: 10.00, Average price: 0.5001, Price range: 0.0030 - 0.9971
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 570989
Question: Will Trump announce Roger W. Ferguson Jr. to replace Kugler?
Volume: 1769.0
Price History:
2025-08-05 14:00: 0.0105
2025-08-05 14:00: 0.9895
2025-08-05 15:00: 0.0105
2025-08-05 15:00: 0.9895
2025-08-05 16:00: 0.0105
2025-08-05 16:00: 0.9895
2025-08-05 17:00: 0.0105
2025-08-05 17:00: 0.9895
2025-08-05 18:00: 0.0105
2025-08-05 18:00: 0.9895
2025-08-05 19:00: 0.0105
2025-08-05 19:00: 0.9895
2025-08-05 20:00: 0.0105
2025-08-05 20:00: 0.9895
2025-08-05 21:00: 0.0105
2025-08-05 21:00: 0.9895
2025-08-05 22:00: 0.0105
2025-08-05 22:00: 0.9895
2025-08-05 23:00: 0.0105
2025-08-05 23:00: 0.9895
2025-08-06 00:00: 0.0105
2025-08-06 00:00: 0.9895
2025-08-06 01:00: 0.0105
Trade Summary: Total trades: 6, Buy volume: 1759.00, Sell volume: 10.00, Average price: 0.8325, Price range: 0.0030 - 0.9990
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 570989
Question: Will Trump announce Roger W. Ferguson Jr. to replace Kugler?
Volume: 1769.0
Price History:
2025-08-06 01:00: 0.9895
2025-08-06 02:00: 0.0105
2025-08-06 02:00: 0.9895
2025-08-06 03:00: 0.0105
2025-08-06 03:00: 0.9895
2025-08-06 04:00: 0.0105
2025-08-06 04:00: 0.9895
2025-08-06 05:00: 0.0105
2025-08-06 05:00: 0.9895
2025-08-06 06:00: 0.0105
2025-08-06 06:00: 0.9895
2025-08-06 07:00: 0.0105
2025-08-06 07:00: 0.9895
2025-08-06 08:00: 0.0105
2025-08-06 08:00: 0.9895
2025-08-06 09:00: 0.0105
2025-08-06 09:00: 0.9895
2025-08-06 10:00: 0.0105
2025-08-06 10:00: 0.9895
2025-08-06 11:00: 0.0105
2025-08-06 11:00: 0.9895
2025-08-06 12:00: 0.0105
2025-08-06 12:00: 0.9895
Trade Summary: Total trades: 6, Buy volume: 1759.00, Sell volume: 10.00, Average price: 0.8325, Price range: 0.0030 - 0.9990
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 570989
Question: Will Trump announce Roger W. Ferguson Jr. to replace Kugler?
Volume: 1769.0
Price History:
2025-08-06 13:00: 0.0105
2025-08-06 13:00: 0.9895
2025-08-06 14:00: 0.0105
2025-08-06 14:00: 0.9895
2025-08-06 15:00: 0.0105
2025-08-06 15:00: 0.9895
2025-08-06 16:00: 0.9895
2025-08-06 16:00: 0.0105
2025-08-06 17:00: 0.9895
2025-08-06 17:00: 0.0105
2025-08-06 18:00: 0.9895
2025-08-06 18:00: 0.0105
2025-08-06 19:00: 0.9895
2025-08-06 19:00: 0.0105
2025-08-06 20:00: 0.9895
2025-08-06 20:00: 0.0105
2025-08-06 21:00: 0.9895
2025-08-06 21:00: 0.0105
2025-08-06 22:00: 0.9895
2025-08-06 22:00: 0.0105
2025-08-06 23:00: 0.0105
2025-08-06 23:00: 0.9895
2025-08-07 00:00: 0.0105
Trade Summary: Total trades: 6, Buy volume: 1759.00, Sell volume: 10.00, Average price: 0.8325, Price range: 0.0030 - 0.9990
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 570989
Question: Will Trump announce Roger W. Ferguson Jr. to replace Kugler?
Volume: 1769.0
Price History:
2025-08-07 00:00: 0.9895
2025-08-07 01:00: 0.9895
2025-08-07 01:00: 0.0105
2025-08-07 02:00: 0.0105
2025-08-07 02:00: 0.9895
2025-08-07 03:00: 0.0105
2025-08-07 03:00: 0.9895
2025-08-07 04:00: 0.9895
2025-08-07 04:00: 0.0105
2025-08-07 05:00: 0.9900
2025-08-07 05:00: 0.0100
2025-08-07 06:00: 0.9900
2025-08-07 06:00: 0.0100
2025-08-07 07:00: 0.9895
2025-08-07 07:00: 0.0105
2025-08-07 08:00: 0.9895
2025-08-07 08:00: 0.0105
2025-08-07 09:00: 0.9895
2025-08-07 09:00: 0.0105
2025-08-07 10:00: 0.9895
2025-08-07 10:00: 0.0105
2025-08-07 11:00: 0.0105
2025-08-07 11:00: 0.9895
Trade Summary: Total trades: 6, Buy volume: 1759.00, Sell volume: 10.00, Average price: 0.8325, Price range: 0.0030 - 0.9990
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 570989
Question: Will Trump announce Roger W. Ferguson Jr. to replace Kugler?
Volume: 1769.0
Price History:
2025-08-07 12:00: 0.9895
2025-08-07 12:00: 0.0105
2025-08-07 13:00: 0.9895
2025-08-07 13:00: 0.0105
2025-08-07 14:00: 0.9895
2025-08-07 14:00: 0.0105
2025-08-07 15:00: 0.9895
2025-08-07 15:00: 0.0105
2025-08-07 16:00: 0.0005
2025-08-07 16:00: 0.9995
2025-08-07 17:00: 0.9995
2025-08-07 17:00: 0.0005
2025-08-07 18:00: 0.9995
2025-08-07 18:00: 0.0005
2025-08-07 19:00: 0.9995
2025-08-07 19:00: 0.0005
2025-08-07 20:00: 0.9995
2025-08-07 20:00: 0.0005
2025-08-07 21:00: 0.9995
2025-08-07 21:00: 0.0005
2025-08-07 22:00: 0.0005
2025-08-07 22:00: 0.9995
2025-08-07 23:00: 0.0005
Trade Summary: Total trades: 4, Buy volume: 1739.00, Sell volume: 0.00, Average price: 0.9987, Price range: 0.9980 - 0.9990
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 570990
Question: Will Trump announce Stephen Miran to replace Kugler?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 1475.0
Price History:
2025-08-07 16:00: 0.8650
2025-08-07 16:00: 0.1350
2025-08-07 17:00: 0.0400
2025-08-07 17:00: 0.9600
2025-08-07 18:00: 0.9695
2025-08-07 18:00: 0.0305
2025-08-07 19:00: 0.9650
2025-08-07 19:00: 0.0350
2025-08-07 20:00: 0.9995
2025-08-07 20:00: 0.0005
Trade Summary: Total trades: 7, Buy volume: 1465.00, Sell volume: 0.00, Average price: 0.9913, Price range: 0.9900 - 0.9990

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 570990
Question: Will Trump announce Stephen Miran to replace Kugler?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 1475.0
Price History:
2025-08-07 18:00: 0.0305
2025-08-07 19:00: 0.9650
2025-08-07 19:00: 0.0350
2025-08-07 20:00: 0.9995
2025-08-07 20:00: 0.0005
Trade Summary: Total trades: 3, Buy volume: 1305.00, Sell volume: 0.00, Average price: 0.9930, Price range: 0.9900 - 0.9990

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 570990
Question: Will Trump announce Stephen Miran to replace Kugler?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 1475.0
Price History:
2025-08-07 21:00: 0.9995
2025-08-07 21:00: 0.0005
2025-08-07 22:00: 0.9995
2025-08-07 22:00: 0.0005
2025-08-07 23:00: 0.0005
2025-08-07 23:00: 0.9995
Trade Summary: Total trades: 8, Buy volume: 1465.00, Sell volume: 10.00, Average price: 0.9424, Price range: 0.6000 - 0.9990

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 570990
Question: Will Trump announce Stephen Miran to replace Kugler?
Volume: 1475.0
Price History:
2025-08-07 16:00: 0.8650
2025-08-07 16:00: 0.1350
2025-08-07 17:00: 0.0400
2025-08-07 17:00: 0.9600
2025-08-07 18:00: 0.9695
2025-08-07 18:00: 0.0305
2025-08-07 19:00: 0.9650
2025-08-07 19:00: 0.0350
2025-08-07 20:00: 0.9995
2025-08-07 20:00: 0.0005
Trade Summary: Total trades: 7, Buy volume: 1465.00, Sell volume: 0.00, Average price: 0.9913, Price range: 0.9900 - 0.9990
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 570990
Question: Will Trump announce Stephen Miran to replace Kugler?
Volume: 1475.0
Price History:
2025-08-07 18:00: 0.0305
2025-08-07 19:00: 0.9650
2025-08-07 19:00: 0.0350
2025-08-07 20:00: 0.9995
2025-08-07 20:00: 0.0005
Trade Summary: Total trades: 3, Buy volume: 1305.00, Sell volume: 0.00, Average price: 0.9930, Price range: 0.9900 - 0.9990
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 570990
Question: Will Trump announce Stephen Miran to replace Kugler?
Volume: 1475.0
Price History:
2025-08-07 21:00: 0.9995
2025-08-07 21:00: 0.0005
2025-08-07 22:00: 0.9995
2025-08-07 22:00: 0.0005
2025-08-07 23:00: 0.0005
2025-08-07 23:00: 0.9995
Trade Summary: Total trades: 8, Buy volume: 1465.00, Sell volume: 10.00, Average price: 0.9424, Price range: 0.6000 - 0.9990
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 571010
Question: Will Trump make no announcement by December 31?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 5333.27625
Price History:
2025-08-01 18:00: 0.4950
2025-08-01 18:00: 0.5050
2025-08-01 19:00: 0.2150
2025-08-01 19:00: 0.7850
2025-08-01 20:00: 0.1650
2025-08-01 20:00: 0.8350
2025-08-01 21:00: 0.1600
2025-08-01 21:00: 0.8400
2025-08-01 22:00: 0.1400
2025-08-01 22:00: 0.8600
2025-08-01 23:00: 0.1400
2025-08-01 23:00: 0.8600
2025-08-02 00:00: 0.1050
2025-08-02 00:00: 0.8950
2025-08-02 01:00: 0.1050
2025-08-02 01:00: 0.8950
2025-08-02 02:00: 0.1050
2025-08-02 02:00: 0.8950
2025-08-02 03:00: 0.0750
2025-08-02 03:00: 0.9250
2025-08-02 04:00: 0.0750
2025-08-02 04:00: 0.9250
2025-08-02 05:00: 0.0350
Trade Summary: Total trades: 1, Buy volume: 1000.00, Sell volume: 0.00, Average price: 0.9700, Price range: 0.9700 - 0.9700

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 571010
Question: Will Trump make no announcement by December 31?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 5333.27625
Price History:
2025-08-02 05:00: 0.9650
2025-08-02 06:00: 0.0350
2025-08-02 06:00: 0.9650
2025-08-02 07:00: 0.0350
2025-08-02 07:00: 0.9650
2025-08-02 08:00: 0.0350
2025-08-02 08:00: 0.9650
2025-08-02 09:00: 0.0350
2025-08-02 09:00: 0.9650
2025-08-02 10:00: 0.0350
2025-08-02 10:00: 0.9650
2025-08-02 11:00: 0.0350
2025-08-02 11:00: 0.9650
2025-08-02 12:00: 0.0350
2025-08-02 12:00: 0.9650
2025-08-02 13:00: 0.0350
2025-08-02 13:00: 0.9650
2025-08-02 14:00: 0.0335
2025-08-02 14:00: 0.9665
2025-08-02 15:00: 0.0340
2025-08-02 15:00: 0.9660
2025-08-02 16:00: 0.0340
2025-08-02 16:00: 0.9660
Trade Summary: Total trades: 23, Buy volume: 4281.19, Sell volume: 1052.09, Average price: 0.7769, Price range: 0.0010 - 0.9990

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 571010
Question: Will Trump make no announcement by December 31?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 5333.27625
Price History:
2025-08-02 17:00: 0.0340
2025-08-02 17:00: 0.9660
2025-08-02 18:00: 0.0340
2025-08-02 18:00: 0.9660
2025-08-02 19:00: 0.0340
2025-08-02 19:00: 0.9660
2025-08-02 20:00: 0.0345
2025-08-02 20:00: 0.9655
2025-08-02 21:00: 0.0340
2025-08-02 21:00: 0.9660
2025-08-02 22:00: 0.0340
2025-08-02 22:00: 0.9660
2025-08-02 23:00: 0.0340
2025-08-02 23:00: 0.9660
2025-08-03 00:00: 0.0340
2025-08-03 00:00: 0.9660
2025-08-03 01:00: 0.0340
2025-08-03 01:00: 0.9660
2025-08-03 02:00: 0.0340
2025-08-03 02:00: 0.9660
2025-08-03 03:00: 0.0340
2025-08-03 03:00: 0.9660
2025-08-03 04:00: 0.0340
Trade Summary: Total trades: 23, Buy volume: 4281.19, Sell volume: 1052.09, Average price: 0.7769, Price range: 0.0010 - 0.9990

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 571010
Question: Will Trump make no announcement by December 31?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 5333.27625
Price History:
2025-08-03 04:00: 0.9660
2025-08-03 05:00: 0.0340
2025-08-03 05:00: 0.9660
2025-08-03 06:00: 0.0340
2025-08-03 06:00: 0.9660
2025-08-03 07:00: 0.0330
2025-08-03 07:00: 0.9670
2025-08-03 08:00: 0.0330
2025-08-03 08:00: 0.9670
2025-08-03 09:00: 0.0290
2025-08-03 09:00: 0.9710
2025-08-03 10:00: 0.0250
2025-08-03 10:00: 0.9750
2025-08-03 11:00: 0.0240
2025-08-03 11:00: 0.9760
2025-08-03 12:00: 0.0240
2025-08-03 12:00: 0.9760
2025-08-03 13:00: 0.0240
2025-08-03 13:00: 0.9760
2025-08-03 14:00: 0.0245
2025-08-03 14:00: 0.9755
2025-08-03 15:00: 0.0240
2025-08-03 15:00: 0.9760
Trade Summary: Total trades: 2, Buy volume: 10.00, Sell volume: 1.00, Average price: 0.5000, Price range: 0.0100 - 0.9900

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 571010
Question: Will Trump make no announcement by December 31?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 5333.27625
Price History:
2025-08-03 16:00: 0.0240
2025-08-03 16:00: 0.9760
2025-08-03 17:00: 0.0240
2025-08-03 17:00: 0.9760
2025-08-03 18:00: 0.0240
2025-08-03 18:00: 0.9760
2025-08-03 19:00: 0.0155
2025-08-03 19:00: 0.9845
2025-08-03 20:00: 0.0155
2025-08-03 20:00: 0.9845
2025-08-03 21:00: 0.0185
2025-08-03 21:00: 0.9815
2025-08-03 22:00: 0.0185
2025-08-03 22:00: 0.9815
2025-08-03 23:00: 0.0185
2025-08-03 23:00: 0.9815
2025-08-04 00:00: 0.0155
2025-08-04 00:00: 0.9845
2025-08-04 01:00: 0.0155
2025-08-04 01:00: 0.9845
2025-08-04 02:00: 0.0115
2025-08-04 02:00: 0.9885
2025-08-04 03:00: 0.0120
Trade Summary: Total trades: 23, Buy volume: 4281.19, Sell volume: 1052.09, Average price: 0.7769, Price range: 0.0010 - 0.9990

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 571010
Question: Will Trump make no announcement by December 31?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 5333.27625
Price History:
2025-08-04 03:00: 0.9880
2025-08-04 04:00: 0.0120
2025-08-04 04:00: 0.9880
2025-08-04 05:00: 0.0120
2025-08-04 05:00: 0.9880
2025-08-04 06:00: 0.0120
2025-08-04 06:00: 0.9880
2025-08-04 07:00: 0.0120
2025-08-04 07:00: 0.9880
2025-08-04 08:00: 0.0120
2025-08-04 08:00: 0.9880
2025-08-04 09:00: 0.0080
2025-08-04 09:00: 0.9920
2025-08-04 10:00: 0.0050
2025-08-04 10:00: 0.9950
2025-08-04 11:00: 0.0050
2025-08-04 11:00: 0.9950
2025-08-04 12:00: 0.0030
2025-08-04 12:00: 0.9970
2025-08-04 13:00: 0.0025
2025-08-04 13:00: 0.9975
2025-08-04 14:00: 0.0025
2025-08-04 14:00: 0.9975
Trade Summary: Total trades: 1, Buy volume: 0.00, Sell volume: 1000.00, Average price: 0.0014, Price range: 0.0014 - 0.0014

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 571010
Question: Will Trump make no announcement by December 31?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 5333.27625
Price History:
2025-08-04 15:00: 0.0025
2025-08-04 15:00: 0.9975
2025-08-04 16:00: 0.0025
2025-08-04 16:00: 0.9975
2025-08-04 17:00: 0.0025
2025-08-04 17:00: 0.9975
2025-08-04 18:00: 0.0025
2025-08-04 18:00: 0.9975
2025-08-04 19:00: 0.0025
2025-08-04 19:00: 0.9975
2025-08-04 20:00: 0.0025
2025-08-04 20:00: 0.9975
2025-08-04 21:00: 0.0025
2025-08-04 21:00: 0.9975
2025-08-04 22:00: 0.0025
2025-08-04 22:00: 0.9975
2025-08-04 23:00: 0.0025
2025-08-04 23:00: 0.9975
2025-08-05 00:00: 0.0025
2025-08-05 00:00: 0.9975
2025-08-05 01:00: 0.0075
2025-08-05 01:00: 0.9925
2025-08-05 02:00: 0.0090
Trade Summary: Total trades: 2, Buy volume: 242.00, Sell volume: 40.00, Average price: 0.0027, Price range: 0.0010 - 0.0044

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 571010
Question: Will Trump make no announcement by December 31?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 5333.27625
Price History:
2025-08-05 02:00: 0.9910
2025-08-05 03:00: 0.0090
2025-08-05 03:00: 0.9910
2025-08-05 04:00: 0.0110
2025-08-05 04:00: 0.9890
2025-08-05 05:00: 0.0090
2025-08-05 05:00: 0.9910
2025-08-05 06:00: 0.0090
2025-08-05 06:00: 0.9910
2025-08-05 07:00: 0.0090
2025-08-05 07:00: 0.9910
2025-08-05 08:00: 0.0085
2025-08-05 08:00: 0.9915
2025-08-05 09:00: 0.0090
2025-08-05 09:00: 0.9910
2025-08-05 10:00: 0.0090
2025-08-05 10:00: 0.9910
2025-08-05 11:00: 0.0040
2025-08-05 11:00: 0.9960
2025-08-05 12:00: 0.0035
2025-08-05 12:00: 0.9965
2025-08-05 13:00: 0.0035
2025-08-05 13:00: 0.9965
Trade Summary: Total trades: 9, Buy volume: 25.99, Sell volume: 1.09, Average price: 0.9888, Price range: 0.9760 - 0.9960

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 571010
Question: Will Trump make no announcement by December 31?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 5333.27625
Price History:
2025-08-05 14:00: 0.0035
2025-08-05 14:00: 0.9965
2025-08-05 15:00: 0.0035
2025-08-05 15:00: 0.9965
2025-08-05 16:00: 0.0035
2025-08-05 16:00: 0.9965
2025-08-05 17:00: 0.0035
2025-08-05 17:00: 0.9965
2025-08-05 18:00: 0.0035
2025-08-05 18:00: 0.9965
2025-08-05 19:00: 0.0035
2025-08-05 19:00: 0.9965
2025-08-05 20:00: 0.0035
2025-08-05 20:00: 0.9965
2025-08-05 21:00: 0.0035
2025-08-05 21:00: 0.9965
2025-08-05 22:00: 0.0035
2025-08-05 22:00: 0.9965
2025-08-05 23:00: 0.0035
2025-08-05 23:00: 0.9965
2025-08-06 00:00: 0.0035
2025-08-06 00:00: 0.9965
2025-08-06 01:00: 0.0035
Trade Summary: Total trades: 1, Buy volume: 0.00, Sell volume: 10.00, Average price: 0.0020, Price range: 0.0020 - 0.0020

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 571010
Question: Will Trump make no announcement by December 31?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 5333.27625
Price History:
2025-08-06 01:00: 0.9965
2025-08-06 02:00: 0.0035
2025-08-06 02:00: 0.9965
2025-08-06 03:00: 0.0035
2025-08-06 03:00: 0.9965
2025-08-06 04:00: 0.0035
2025-08-06 04:00: 0.9965
2025-08-06 05:00: 0.0035
2025-08-06 05:00: 0.9965
2025-08-06 06:00: 0.0030
2025-08-06 06:00: 0.9970
2025-08-06 07:00: 0.0030
2025-08-06 07:00: 0.9970
2025-08-06 08:00: 0.0030
2025-08-06 08:00: 0.9970
2025-08-06 09:00: 0.0030
2025-08-06 09:00: 0.9970
2025-08-06 10:00: 0.0030
2025-08-06 10:00: 0.9970
2025-08-06 11:00: 0.0030
2025-08-06 11:00: 0.9970
2025-08-06 12:00: 0.0030
2025-08-06 12:00: 0.9970
Trade Summary: Total trades: 23, Buy volume: 4281.19, Sell volume: 1052.09, Average price: 0.7769, Price range: 0.0010 - 0.9990

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 571010
Question: Will Trump make no announcement by December 31?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 5333.27625
Price History:
2025-08-06 13:00: 0.0030
2025-08-06 13:00: 0.9970
2025-08-06 14:00: 0.0030
2025-08-06 14:00: 0.9970
2025-08-06 15:00: 0.0030
2025-08-06 15:00: 0.9970
2025-08-06 16:00: 0.0030
2025-08-06 16:00: 0.9970
2025-08-06 17:00: 0.0030
2025-08-06 17:00: 0.9970
2025-08-06 18:00: 0.0030
2025-08-06 18:00: 0.9970
2025-08-06 19:00: 0.0030
2025-08-06 19:00: 0.9970
2025-08-06 20:00: 0.0030
2025-08-06 20:00: 0.9970
2025-08-06 21:00: 0.0030
2025-08-06 21:00: 0.9970
2025-08-06 22:00: 0.0030
2025-08-06 22:00: 0.9970
2025-08-06 23:00: 0.9970
2025-08-06 23:00: 0.0030
2025-08-07 00:00: 0.0030
Trade Summary: Total trades: 23, Buy volume: 4281.19, Sell volume: 1052.09, Average price: 0.7769, Price range: 0.0010 - 0.9990

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 571010
Question: Will Trump make no announcement by December 31?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 5333.27625
Price History:
2025-08-07 00:00: 0.9970
2025-08-07 01:00: 0.0030
2025-08-07 01:00: 0.9970
2025-08-07 02:00: 0.0030
2025-08-07 02:00: 0.9970
2025-08-07 03:00: 0.0030
2025-08-07 03:00: 0.9970
2025-08-07 04:00: 0.0030
2025-08-07 04:00: 0.9970
2025-08-07 05:00: 0.0030
2025-08-07 05:00: 0.9970
2025-08-07 06:00: 0.9970
2025-08-07 06:00: 0.0030
2025-08-07 07:00: 0.0030
2025-08-07 07:00: 0.9970
2025-08-07 08:00: 0.0030
2025-08-07 08:00: 0.9970
2025-08-07 09:00: 0.0030
2025-08-07 09:00: 0.9970
2025-08-07 10:00: 0.0030
2025-08-07 10:00: 0.9970
2025-08-07 11:00: 0.0030
2025-08-07 11:00: 0.9970
Trade Summary: Total trades: 1, Buy volume: 1.20, Sell volume: 0.00, Average price: 0.9980, Price range: 0.9980 - 0.9980

Output: Yes


Instruction: Predict the market outcome given the historical data.

Input:
Market ID: 571010
Question: Will Trump make no announcement by December 31?
Outcomes: ["Yes", "No"]
Volume: 5333.27625
Price History:
2025-08-07 12:00: 0.0030
2025-08-07 12:00: 0.9970
2025-08-07 13:00: 0.0030
2025-08-07 13:00: 0.9970
2025-08-07 14:00: 0.0030
2025-08-07 14:00: 0.9970
2025-08-07 15:00: 0.0030
2025-08-07 15:00: 0.9970
2025-08-07 16:00: 0.0020
2025-08-07 16:00: 0.9980
2025-08-07 17:00: 0.0005
2025-08-07 17:00: 0.9995
2025-08-07 18:00: 0.0005
2025-08-07 18:00: 0.9995
2025-08-07 19:00: 0.0005
2025-08-07 19:00: 0.9995
2025-08-07 20:00: 0.9995
2025-08-07 20:00: 0.0005
2025-08-07 21:00: 0.0005
2025-08-07 21:00: 0.9995
2025-08-07 22:00: 0.0005
2025-08-07 22:00: 0.9995
2025-08-07 23:00: 0.9995
Trade Summary: Total trades: 6, Buy volume: 3001.99, Sell volume: 0.00, Average price: 0.9987, Price range: 0.9980 - 0.9990

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 571010
Question: Will Trump make no announcement by December 31?
Volume: 5333.27625
Price History:
2025-08-01 18:00: 0.4950
2025-08-01 18:00: 0.5050
2025-08-01 19:00: 0.2150
2025-08-01 19:00: 0.7850
2025-08-01 20:00: 0.1650
2025-08-01 20:00: 0.8350
2025-08-01 21:00: 0.1600
2025-08-01 21:00: 0.8400
2025-08-01 22:00: 0.1400
2025-08-01 22:00: 0.8600
2025-08-01 23:00: 0.1400
2025-08-01 23:00: 0.8600
2025-08-02 00:00: 0.1050
2025-08-02 00:00: 0.8950
2025-08-02 01:00: 0.1050
2025-08-02 01:00: 0.8950
2025-08-02 02:00: 0.1050
2025-08-02 02:00: 0.8950
2025-08-02 03:00: 0.0750
2025-08-02 03:00: 0.9250
2025-08-02 04:00: 0.0750
2025-08-02 04:00: 0.9250
2025-08-02 05:00: 0.0350
Trade Summary: Total trades: 1, Buy volume: 1000.00, Sell volume: 0.00, Average price: 0.9700, Price range: 0.9700 - 0.9700
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 571010
Question: Will Trump make no announcement by December 31?
Volume: 5333.27625
Price History:
2025-08-02 05:00: 0.9650
2025-08-02 06:00: 0.0350
2025-08-02 06:00: 0.9650
2025-08-02 07:00: 0.0350
2025-08-02 07:00: 0.9650
2025-08-02 08:00: 0.0350
2025-08-02 08:00: 0.9650
2025-08-02 09:00: 0.0350
2025-08-02 09:00: 0.9650
2025-08-02 10:00: 0.0350
2025-08-02 10:00: 0.9650
2025-08-02 11:00: 0.0350
2025-08-02 11:00: 0.9650
2025-08-02 12:00: 0.0350
2025-08-02 12:00: 0.9650
2025-08-02 13:00: 0.0350
2025-08-02 13:00: 0.9650
2025-08-02 14:00: 0.0335
2025-08-02 14:00: 0.9665
2025-08-02 15:00: 0.0340
2025-08-02 15:00: 0.9660
2025-08-02 16:00: 0.0340
2025-08-02 16:00: 0.9660
Trade Summary: Total trades: 23, Buy volume: 4281.19, Sell volume: 1052.09, Average price: 0.7769, Price range: 0.0010 - 0.9990
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike, wash_trading

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 571010
Question: Will Trump make no announcement by December 31?
Volume: 5333.27625
Price History:
2025-08-02 17:00: 0.0340
2025-08-02 17:00: 0.9660
2025-08-02 18:00: 0.0340
2025-08-02 18:00: 0.9660
2025-08-02 19:00: 0.0340
2025-08-02 19:00: 0.9660
2025-08-02 20:00: 0.0345
2025-08-02 20:00: 0.9655
2025-08-02 21:00: 0.0340
2025-08-02 21:00: 0.9660
2025-08-02 22:00: 0.0340
2025-08-02 22:00: 0.9660
2025-08-02 23:00: 0.0340
2025-08-02 23:00: 0.9660
2025-08-03 00:00: 0.0340
2025-08-03 00:00: 0.9660
2025-08-03 01:00: 0.0340
2025-08-03 01:00: 0.9660
2025-08-03 02:00: 0.0340
2025-08-03 02:00: 0.9660
2025-08-03 03:00: 0.0340
2025-08-03 03:00: 0.9660
2025-08-03 04:00: 0.0340
Trade Summary: Total trades: 23, Buy volume: 4281.19, Sell volume: 1052.09, Average price: 0.7769, Price range: 0.0010 - 0.9990
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike, wash_trading

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 571010
Question: Will Trump make no announcement by December 31?
Volume: 5333.27625
Price History:
2025-08-03 04:00: 0.9660
2025-08-03 05:00: 0.0340
2025-08-03 05:00: 0.9660
2025-08-03 06:00: 0.0340
2025-08-03 06:00: 0.9660
2025-08-03 07:00: 0.0330
2025-08-03 07:00: 0.9670
2025-08-03 08:00: 0.0330
2025-08-03 08:00: 0.9670
2025-08-03 09:00: 0.0290
2025-08-03 09:00: 0.9710
2025-08-03 10:00: 0.0250
2025-08-03 10:00: 0.9750
2025-08-03 11:00: 0.0240
2025-08-03 11:00: 0.9760
2025-08-03 12:00: 0.0240
2025-08-03 12:00: 0.9760
2025-08-03 13:00: 0.0240
2025-08-03 13:00: 0.9760
2025-08-03 14:00: 0.0245
2025-08-03 14:00: 0.9755
2025-08-03 15:00: 0.0240
2025-08-03 15:00: 0.9760
Trade Summary: Total trades: 2, Buy volume: 10.00, Sell volume: 1.00, Average price: 0.5000, Price range: 0.0100 - 0.9900
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 571010
Question: Will Trump make no announcement by December 31?
Volume: 5333.27625
Price History:
2025-08-03 16:00: 0.0240
2025-08-03 16:00: 0.9760
2025-08-03 17:00: 0.0240
2025-08-03 17:00: 0.9760
2025-08-03 18:00: 0.0240
2025-08-03 18:00: 0.9760
2025-08-03 19:00: 0.0155
2025-08-03 19:00: 0.9845
2025-08-03 20:00: 0.0155
2025-08-03 20:00: 0.9845
2025-08-03 21:00: 0.0185
2025-08-03 21:00: 0.9815
2025-08-03 22:00: 0.0185
2025-08-03 22:00: 0.9815
2025-08-03 23:00: 0.0185
2025-08-03 23:00: 0.9815
2025-08-04 00:00: 0.0155
2025-08-04 00:00: 0.9845
2025-08-04 01:00: 0.0155
2025-08-04 01:00: 0.9845
2025-08-04 02:00: 0.0115
2025-08-04 02:00: 0.9885
2025-08-04 03:00: 0.0120
Trade Summary: Total trades: 23, Buy volume: 4281.19, Sell volume: 1052.09, Average price: 0.7769, Price range: 0.0010 - 0.9990
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike, wash_trading

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 571010
Question: Will Trump make no announcement by December 31?
Volume: 5333.27625
Price History:
2025-08-04 03:00: 0.9880
2025-08-04 04:00: 0.0120
2025-08-04 04:00: 0.9880
2025-08-04 05:00: 0.0120
2025-08-04 05:00: 0.9880
2025-08-04 06:00: 0.0120
2025-08-04 06:00: 0.9880
2025-08-04 07:00: 0.0120
2025-08-04 07:00: 0.9880
2025-08-04 08:00: 0.0120
2025-08-04 08:00: 0.9880
2025-08-04 09:00: 0.0080
2025-08-04 09:00: 0.9920
2025-08-04 10:00: 0.0050
2025-08-04 10:00: 0.9950
2025-08-04 11:00: 0.0050
2025-08-04 11:00: 0.9950
2025-08-04 12:00: 0.0030
2025-08-04 12:00: 0.9970
2025-08-04 13:00: 0.0025
2025-08-04 13:00: 0.9975
2025-08-04 14:00: 0.0025
2025-08-04 14:00: 0.9975
Trade Summary: Total trades: 1, Buy volume: 0.00, Sell volume: 1000.00, Average price: 0.0014, Price range: 0.0014 - 0.0014
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes


Instruction: Detect if the following market experienced manipulation (Yes or No).

Input:
Market ID: 571010
Question: Will Trump make no announcement by December 31?
Volume: 5333.27625
Price History:
2025-08-04 15:00: 0.0025
2025-08-04 15:00: 0.9975
2025-08-04 16:00: 0.0025
2025-08-04 16:00: 0.9975
2025-08-04 17:00: 0.0025
2025-08-04 17:00: 0.9975
2025-08-04 18:00: 0.0025
2025-08-04 18:00: 0.9975
2025-08-04 19:00: 0.0025
2025-08-04 19:00: 0.9975
2025-08-04 20:00: 0.0025
2025-08-04 20:00: 0.9975
2025-08-04 21:00: 0.0025
2025-08-04 21:00: 0.9975
2025-08-04 22:00: 0.0025
2025-08-04 22:00: 0.9975
2025-08-04 23:00: 0.0025
2025-08-04 23:00: 0.9975
2025-08-05 00:00: 0.0025
2025-08-05 00:00: 0.9975
2025-08-05 01:00: 0.0075
2025-08-05 01:00: 0.9925
2025-08-05 02:00: 0.0090
Trade Summary: Total trades: 2, Buy volume: 242.00, Sell volume: 40.00, Average price: 0.0027, Price range: 0.0010 - 0.0044
Manipulation Indicators Detected: high_volatility, price_spike

Output: Yes